Browse content similar to 26/11/2015. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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saying goodbye to viewers on BBC Two. | :00:38. | :00:37. | |
Welcome. coverage of this debate. We're | :00:38. | :01:59. | |
Now, first today, let's talk about migration. | :02:00. | :02:00. | |
Figures out this morning show that net migration to the UK has hit | :02:01. | :02:03. | |
The difference between the number of people coming to live in Britain | :02:04. | :02:08. | |
and those emigrating was 336,000 in the 12 months to the end of June. | :02:09. | :02:11. | |
The total is 82,000 higher than in the previous year. | :02:12. | :02:14. | |
It means the government has slipped further from its target | :02:15. | :02:16. | |
of getting net migration down to the "tens of thousands" by 2020. | :02:17. | :02:35. | |
it was meant to be of course by 2015, and indeed the target is | :02:36. | :02:44. | |
actually receding into the distance. Andrew Lansley, wouldn't the | :02:45. | :02:47. | |
government just be better to give up on this target? It is not easy to | :02:48. | :02:51. | |
see how it is going to be done, is it? Because when you set a target, | :02:52. | :02:56. | |
in principle you should do is use targets for things that you can | :02:57. | :02:59. | |
control, and to some extent this turns out to be something they don't | :03:00. | :03:05. | |
appear to be able to control. I have only seen the numbers this morning, | :03:06. | :03:08. | |
but unless I'm missing something, there was both a significant | :03:09. | :03:12. | |
increase in the numbers coming here from elsewhere in the European | :03:13. | :03:15. | |
Union, and that is principally for jobs. And as things stand, the | :03:16. | :03:21. | |
renegotiation with the EU may reduce some of the incentives that he would | :03:22. | :03:24. | |
come the jobs, but if they are coming hither jobs and get a | :03:25. | :03:26. | |
national living wage in years to come, that is pretty attractive. We | :03:27. | :03:32. | |
are doing well in job creation. But I think there was also a significant | :03:33. | :03:36. | |
increase in the numbers coming here from outside the European Union. | :03:37. | :03:40. | |
Which is that we are meant to be able to control. There are still way | :03:41. | :03:49. | |
over 100,000, tens those well over 100,000 from outside the EU coming | :03:50. | :03:55. | |
in. We do have to look inside this big number and say what is going on. | :03:56. | :03:59. | |
If people are coming here in order to fill jobs where we don't have | :04:00. | :04:02. | |
people domestic league table or unwilling to do those jobs, that is | :04:03. | :04:08. | |
a good thing. You can see in the long-term economic forecasts what a | :04:09. | :04:10. | |
benefit that could have, in terms of overall output. And the same, I | :04:11. | :04:17. | |
think personally, it's pretty much true for those who are coming here | :04:18. | :04:21. | |
and then going home for higher education purposes. But actually you | :04:22. | :04:26. | |
can even take those numbers out and you have still got a significant | :04:27. | :04:31. | |
increase. There is a sense where this all began six years ago of, how | :04:32. | :04:39. | |
do we cope with population increases on this scale? Something of the | :04:40. | :04:45. | |
order of 1% of increase in population a year. This is not | :04:46. | :04:49. | |
really tenable in the long run. The government clearly came nowhere near | :04:50. | :04:54. | |
that its target of 2015. We agree it is pretty unlikely from what we have | :04:55. | :04:58. | |
seen so far it is not going to hit it in 2020. At the moment you are | :04:59. | :05:02. | |
looking at it and saying what will be the difference between not the | :05:03. | :05:05. | |
only thing in prospect at the moment is the change to migrant benefits | :05:06. | :05:08. | |
and in work benefits for those coming from elsewhere. I think that | :05:09. | :05:15. | |
will make all the difference? No, I don't. | :05:16. | :05:17. | |
Now, let's talk about yesterday's Spending Review, or the | :05:18. | :05:19. | |
Chancellor's Autumn Statement, whatever you prefer to call it. | :05:20. | :05:21. | |
You might be forgiven for thinking Christmas had come early. | :05:22. | :05:25. | |
Springing out of the Chancellor's Christmas stocking, an extra ?27 | :05:26. | :05:27. | |
billion, allowing the Chancellor to perform all sorts of magical tricks. | :05:28. | :05:30. | |
Let's have a look at what he had to say, in detail. | :05:31. | :05:33. | |
That windfall from the new OBR forecast allowed | :05:34. | :05:35. | |
the Chancellor to reverse plans to introduce ?4.4 billion worth of tax | :05:36. | :05:38. | |
credit cuts that were supposed to be introduced this year. | :05:39. | :05:47. | |
It means George Osborne will breach his own welfare cap | :05:48. | :05:50. | |
in the early years of this parliament, before tax credits are | :05:51. | :05:53. | |
phased out by 2018 and replaced by a Universal Credit payment. | :05:54. | :06:04. | |
It wraps up six different welfare payments. | :06:05. | :06:06. | |
The day-to-day expenditure of government departments will fall | :06:07. | :06:16. | |
20 billion, on average, by 2020, but the burden isn't equally shared. | :06:17. | :06:19. | |
The departments for transport, energy, business and the environment | :06:20. | :06:21. | |
are the biggest losers, with their day-to-day budgets falling by | :06:22. | :06:24. | |
The NHS, education, defence and foreign aid budgets were protected. | :06:25. | :06:34. | |
The NHS will receive an up front cash injection of ?3.8 | :06:35. | :06:38. | |
billion above inflation next year, as part of the ?8 billion extra to | :06:39. | :06:41. | |
A new apprenticeship levy of 0.5% on company payrolls | :06:42. | :06:52. | |
from April 2017 will raise ?3 billion a year, and fund three | :06:53. | :06:54. | |
From next April, the basic state pension will rise to ?119.30 a week. | :06:55. | :07:06. | |
The Chancellor gladdened the hearts of police officers | :07:07. | :07:08. | |
by promising there would be no real-terms cuts to police budgets | :07:09. | :07:11. | |
in England and Wales, but forces will be expected to make efficiency | :07:12. | :07:14. | |
And, despite difficult financial circumstances, George Osborne still | :07:15. | :07:39. | |
plans to have eliminated the deficit, and be running a ?10.1 | :07:40. | :07:42. | |
First of all, the Spending Review takes the | :07:43. | :07:55. | |
necessary decisions to make sure that Britain stops borrowing, runs | :07:56. | :07:57. | |
And that involves difficult decisions on spending and tax | :07:58. | :08:04. | |
and particularly on day-to-day spending, in order to | :08:05. | :08:06. | |
invest in the long-term and invest in our NHS and our police. | :08:07. | :08:10. | |
And my central judgment is that by taking those decisions, no more, no | :08:11. | :08:13. | |
less, there is light at the end of the tunnel for Britain and we can | :08:14. | :08:17. | |
Well, this morning, Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell | :08:18. | :08:27. | |
said his party wasn't completely satisfied with George Osborne's | :08:28. | :08:29. | |
We had three targets in terms of Labour's campaign - one was to | :08:30. | :08:45. | |
Unfortunately, it is only a partial victory. | :08:46. | :08:56. | |
It is a bit George Osborne-ish, as usual. | :08:57. | :08:58. | |
He is going ahead with the Universal Credit cuts and that means | :08:59. | :09:01. | |
families still losing out, as they get shifted on to Universal Credit. | :09:02. | :09:04. | |
On average about ?1,000 but people with disabilities, | :09:05. | :09:06. | |
for example, about ?2,500 and loan parents ?2,500. | :09:07. | :09:08. | |
So partial victory on that but we'll keep on campaigning to try | :09:09. | :09:11. | |
And with me now, the Shadow Treasury spokesman, | :09:12. | :09:19. | |
Rebecca Long-Bailey, and Torsten Bell of the Resolution Foundation, a | :09:20. | :09:22. | |
nonpartisan think tank, which works to improve the living standards | :09:23. | :09:24. | |
Andrew Lansley is, of course, still with us. | :09:25. | :09:33. | |
Let me come to you first, Thurston, the Chancellor will not be talking | :09:34. | :09:42. | |
about taking away tax quotes between the now and the end of tax credits | :09:43. | :09:47. | |
and universal credits comes in between now and 2018. What happens | :09:48. | :09:51. | |
to those people that the Chancellor had targeted in July but is no | :09:52. | :09:56. | |
longer targeting in universal credit? That is not quite right, | :09:57. | :10:00. | |
Andrew. What the Chancellor did yesterday is a very welcome return | :10:01. | :10:06. | |
to his plans. The tax credit cuts, that is welcome because it will | :10:07. | :10:13. | |
offer reassurance... What happens when me get universal credit? In | :10:14. | :10:17. | |
terms of using tax credits taking people away with more than two | :10:18. | :10:22. | |
children, are going ahead. Then we turn to universal credit and what is | :10:23. | :10:25. | |
that, and the Chancellor has maintained the cuts to universal | :10:26. | :10:29. | |
credit that were set out in the summer budget, leave those place. As | :10:30. | :10:33. | |
the Chancellor said in his statement, there are no changes to | :10:34. | :10:39. | |
those cuts. So when it moves to universal credit, the cuts that | :10:40. | :10:43. | |
would have affected people if the Chancellor had proceeded with his | :10:44. | :10:47. | |
July statement, they will affect these people, come universal credit? | :10:48. | :10:53. | |
Most of those cuts will affect people in universal credit and they | :10:54. | :10:56. | |
will obviously happen in a slightly different way but in slippers | :10:57. | :10:59. | |
plastic terms can be yes. Most of those cuts will take place in | :11:00. | :11:04. | |
universal credit that the point that that system is full and up and | :11:05. | :11:11. | |
running. So pay and delay -- pain delayed? The Chancellor listened to | :11:12. | :11:17. | |
people who said the transition, that taking tax credits away next April | :11:18. | :11:21. | |
at a point where there has not been an increase in the income tax | :11:22. | :11:25. | |
personal allowance, where all the additional childcare is not in place | :11:26. | :11:27. | |
and particularly where people are not being paid at the national | :11:28. | :11:32. | |
living wage, that created a transitional problem. Of course what | :11:33. | :11:35. | |
he has dealt with is the transitional problem, by taking away | :11:36. | :11:38. | |
that additional reduction in people's income until such time as | :11:39. | :11:41. | |
there are these other compensating benefits. What do you say to that? | :11:42. | :11:47. | |
Let's look at the compensating benefits, the national living wage | :11:48. | :11:52. | |
is a farce, to say the least. The Institute for Fiscal Studies has | :11:53. | :11:55. | |
claimed it is arithmetically impossible to commentator these | :11:56. | :12:00. | |
families's losses. It is a farce. You say, it is going up to ?9. The | :12:01. | :12:07. | |
last Labour manifesto, ninth and 30, let me finish the question, the last | :12:08. | :12:11. | |
Labour Party manifesto in May of this year promised it would only go | :12:12. | :12:16. | |
up to ?8. Green it is certainly welcome. Is it a farce or is it | :12:17. | :12:23. | |
welcome? Can't be both. It is not possible to compensate them by | :12:24. | :12:26. | |
increasing the national minimum wage. That may well be true but that | :12:27. | :12:30. | |
is a different point. I am just trying to work out how a national | :12:31. | :12:34. | |
minimum wage of over nine quid could be a farce when the one you promise | :12:35. | :12:39. | |
to make at only eight quid is not a farce. The question was linked with | :12:40. | :12:41. | |
how it would deal with these families. They need more than an | :12:42. | :12:46. | |
increase in the national living wage quite frankly, they need a clear and | :12:47. | :12:49. | |
cob rancid industrial and economic strategy. That is just political | :12:50. | :12:54. | |
rhetoric, all politicians talk about that. By how much do you think the | :12:55. | :12:58. | |
national minimum wage should be by the end of this Parliament? We need | :12:59. | :13:02. | |
to look at other options available, and we should not just focus on the | :13:03. | :13:07. | |
national minimum wage. Forgive me, I am come I am asking you how much you | :13:08. | :13:12. | |
think, if ninth and 30 is not enough, and many people would say it | :13:13. | :13:17. | |
is not, how much do you think the national living wage, how much do | :13:18. | :13:23. | |
you think it should be by the end of this Parliament? A good Chancellor | :13:24. | :13:27. | |
would not simply focus on increasing living wage as a means to improve | :13:28. | :13:30. | |
people's living standards, they would look at all options in terms | :13:31. | :13:34. | |
of improving housing, assessing the levels of rent people are providing. | :13:35. | :13:39. | |
We saw none of that in yesterday's statement. If you take Andrew | :13:40. | :13:44. | |
Lansley's point, and then get the 2018-19, the threshold has been | :13:45. | :13:53. | |
raised, and the move towards the ?9 30 minimum wage is underway. What | :13:54. | :14:00. | |
difference does that make to the people moving on to universal credit | :14:01. | :14:06. | |
who will then lose a bit? That is a good question, and I disagree with | :14:07. | :14:10. | |
both Rebecca and Andrew, because the national living wage is a big deal, | :14:11. | :14:13. | |
the increase is large and it will have a big difference to people who | :14:14. | :14:19. | |
are on that. But it is also wrong to say that that and the personal | :14:20. | :14:23. | |
allowance changes and any childcare changes will make a large difference | :14:24. | :14:26. | |
to the losers from universal credit changes coming in this Parliament. | :14:27. | :14:30. | |
That is for a number of reasons, people who are losing from universal | :14:31. | :14:34. | |
credit on: The then wage. People who are losing from universal credit | :14:35. | :14:38. | |
don't pay very large tax bills in general so don't get the same | :14:39. | :14:43. | |
benefit from the changes to the personal allowance was not prior to | :14:44. | :14:46. | |
the statement, our analysis said we were expecting those changes to | :14:47. | :14:49. | |
possibly compensate within the region of ten, 15, 13% of the | :14:50. | :14:54. | |
losses, we're not talking about eradicating them. The argument that | :14:55. | :14:58. | |
this will allow these losses to be wiped out doesn't hold. So it is | :14:59. | :15:04. | |
still pain delayed? It is moving from a situation where we have | :15:05. | :15:07. | |
relatively large, something like six out of ten people on tax credits, to | :15:08. | :15:12. | |
a position where under universal credit it will still be something | :15:13. | :15:15. | |
like five out of ten? Torsten will probably know. There is a reduction | :15:16. | :15:22. | |
in the number of people who are dependent on the income being set by | :15:23. | :15:25. | |
the Chancellor of the Exchequer. I think this is a very positive move, | :15:26. | :15:28. | |
moving to a place where people know that work is their work, their | :15:29. | :15:31. | |
income, left in their pockets is actually the basis upon which their | :15:32. | :15:37. | |
household income is established. Andrew is getting to the core | :15:38. | :15:40. | |
argument that people should be making for these universal credit | :15:41. | :15:43. | |
changes take in place, that is a principled view that people in work | :15:44. | :15:46. | |
should be receiving less support from the state over time. We don't | :15:47. | :15:50. | |
agree with that but that is an argument, but that is not an | :15:51. | :15:54. | |
argument being made by many. The Chancellor this morning on the Today | :15:55. | :15:58. | |
programme said nine out of ten people who were on tax credits in | :15:59. | :16:05. | |
2010, he thought that was wrong. The Chancellor took away in the last | :16:06. | :16:08. | |
parliament from the higher earners. The system that is left is | :16:09. | :16:12. | |
supporting work incentives and child poverty for the core working | :16:13. | :16:14. | |
population on learning comes in our country and that is why we are | :16:15. | :16:17. | |
seeing these changes now having a real effect. Does Labour still I | :16:18. | :16:30. | |
support the working tax credit We are assessing the pilot. There are a | :16:31. | :16:34. | |
number of alarm bells ringing. I understand that. Do you think you | :16:35. | :16:38. | |
will come out against it? I think we need to take a strategic overvu. | :16:39. | :16:42. | |
There are elements that could be taken as positive steps forward but | :16:43. | :16:46. | |
in terms of the ongoing management that families face in terms of | :16:47. | :16:50. | |
finances, I think many people struggle. Would you make any changes | :16:51. | :16:55. | |
to tax credits? We would reverse the Government's current proposals to | :16:56. | :16:58. | |
cut tax credits. They have done that themselves. They have already done | :16:59. | :17:02. | |
that. The proposals they put forward were a partial step and we welcome | :17:03. | :17:07. | |
that. As John has outlined. What I asked you, was not what the | :17:08. | :17:10. | |
Government is doing, would you make any changes to tax credits? We would | :17:11. | :17:13. | |
reverse the Government's proposals in full on tax credits, but that has | :17:14. | :17:20. | |
to be done hand-in-hand with a long-term economic strategy that | :17:21. | :17:22. | |
would require invest in industry. At the moment we are seeing, in temples | :17:23. | :17:27. | |
devolution, the creation of a Wild West industry where regions will be | :17:28. | :17:30. | |
competing against each other. There will be a race to the bottom in | :17:31. | :17:37. | |
business rates. The social care precept announceside worrying, local | :17:38. | :17:40. | |
authorities will be left in a position where they will be left to | :17:41. | :17:44. | |
float on their own and bring in their own income. We'll leave it | :17:45. | :17:46. | |
there. Well, what did the papers make of it | :17:47. | :17:48. | |
all? And joining me now from College | :17:49. | :17:50. | |
Green, two of Fleet Street's finest, Sam Coates from the Times and Nick | :17:51. | :17:53. | |
Watt from the Guardian. Sam Coates, the Chancellor got a | :17:54. | :18:01. | |
pretty decent press this morning but it is usually on Day 2 that we find | :18:02. | :18:06. | |
out things that he didn't want us to know. How is that going? One of the | :18:07. | :18:10. | |
reasons George Osborne had a pretedy good day yesterday is that he had | :18:11. | :18:15. | |
?27 billion of funny money to play with, money that he didn't know he | :18:16. | :18:19. | |
had in July. Two-thirds of which has magiced into his account because of | :18:20. | :18:25. | |
modelling changes by the Office for Budget Responsibility, presumably an | :18:26. | :18:28. | |
error by the Office for Budget Responsibility in judgment of he is | :18:29. | :18:32. | |
placing an awful lot on those changed forecasts in order to be | :18:33. | :18:35. | |
able to fulfil a wish list that seems to have kept most of his | :18:36. | :18:39. | |
backbenchers happy. The money to pay for tax credit U-turns, the money to | :18:40. | :18:43. | |
stop the police cuts have all come from this. The important point is he | :18:44. | :18:44. | |
made a big decision. In the | :18:45. | 0:11:50 |