14/03/2016 Daily Politics


14/03/2016

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Hello and welcome to the Daily Politics.

:00:37.:00:40.

36 people are killed in a bomb attack in the Turkish capital

:00:41.:00:43.

Is the country in any position to help solve the EU migrant crisis?

:00:44.:00:49.

What's the relationship between the Labour's candidate

:00:50.:00:52.

for Mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, and Babar Ahmad?

:00:53.:00:56.

The so-called cyber-jihadist speaks about their relationship

:00:57.:00:58.

Why Tories who voted to remain in 1975 are campaigning to leave,

:00:59.:01:10.

and Labour leavers in '75 are now for remain.

:01:11.:01:13.

And I ask Boris Johnson what his chances are

:01:14.:01:15.

You had a greater chance of being reincarnated as an olive...

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You remember, than you did about being

:01:19.:01:21.

Or a baked bean, or decapitated by Frisbee or locked

:01:22.:01:25.

And with us for the duration today, a former Europe Minister,

:01:26.:01:38.

And the Conservative MP, Graham Brady, who was once

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First this morning, 36 people have been killed in a suicide car bomb

:01:42.:01:48.

attack in the Turkish capital, Ankara.

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The bomb went off last night outside the main railway station

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The Turkish government are already pointing the finger at the outlawed

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One of the dead is said to be a known PKK militant.

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Last month, a bomb attack on a military convoy in Ankara

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killed 28 people and wounded dozens more, and in October more than 100

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people were killed at a peace rally in the city.

:02:18.:02:24.

Caroline Flint, how dangerous this unrest in Turkey for the rest of us?

:02:25.:02:32.

It is obviously very concerning pickers as well as these attacks we

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know that Turkey is obviously dealing with millions of refugees

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coming through their borders as well. And what is so sad for Turkey,

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too, and I've holidayed there many times, in fact I was there last

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summer, is the huge impact these things have not just in terms of a

:02:51.:02:54.

loss for the people involved are also on Turkey's economy. But the

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problem for Turkey and in some ways then relying on Turkey to stop the

:03:00.:03:03.

migrant crisis is that they are fighting a war on two fronts. They

:03:04.:03:08.

are still fighting an old and ongoing battle with the PKK and they

:03:09.:03:13.

are also part of this coalition to fight IS, are they really in a

:03:14.:03:17.

position to help us fight the migrant crisis? We have to depend on

:03:18.:03:22.

a working Turkey. Turkey is a critically important power in the

:03:23.:03:26.

region. In terms of helping with what is going on in Syria and other

:03:27.:03:31.

parts, but also our front line on the migrant crisis. Should we be

:03:32.:03:35.

relying on them and is this deal going to stick? The deal is another

:03:36.:03:39.

matter and I don't think the deal is going to make much difference. The

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fact is with one in, one outcome you do not discourage people from coming

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you are just providing a different dynamic in that same traffic. We

:03:50.:03:52.

don't really have an alternative, do we? We do have to work with Turkey

:03:53.:03:57.

because they are dealing with millions of refugees. Not only in

:03:58.:04:01.

terms of within Turkey but also the problem of traffickers taking people

:04:02.:04:05.

out of Turkey and into Greece as well. It is absolutely right that

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the government and other EU nations should be having this discussion.

:04:09.:04:13.

What the final deal will look like is yet to be negotiated. Do you

:04:14.:04:17.

think it will be done on Thursday? I don't know whether it will be done

:04:18.:04:25.

on Thursday but it will not be resolved, the problem will not be

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resolved until the EU recognises that free movement of people cannot

:04:28.:04:30.

underpin relationships between 28 countries across the continent of

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Europe. Realistically that's over anyway, freedom of movement for a

:04:35.:04:39.

lot of countries. Are you supporting the idea it should go altogether? A

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lot of European politicians say it is core to what they believe in. If

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people recognised it was over we might have a more meaningful

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negotiations. Is that the solution, to actually state officially that

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freedom of movement of people is over, as people have been erecting

:04:58.:05:00.

fences and walls to try to stop migrants coming through? Free

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movement does not mean a free for all, there are limitations on who

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can come into different parts of the EU and we are part of, we are not

:05:08.:05:12.

part of the Shannon zone so we will not be changing it any time soon.

:05:13.:05:18.

There is a recognition that the external borders of the EU need to

:05:19.:05:21.

be stronger than they are, and clearly what Angela Merkel said

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which is a sister party to Graham's in the last few months hasn't helped

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the situation and she is paying the price in the polls. Done very badly

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in those elections that have just happened. David Cameron said in 2014

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that he still would like Turkey to join the EU. Do you think he still

:05:41.:05:45.

feels like that? I don't know, but Britain has always been a strong

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supporter of the idea of Turkey joining the EU. I always used to say

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when I was shadowing Europe that can never happen until we have a very

:05:53.:05:55.

different kind of European Union, one that had updated concepts on

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open borders and so on. Let's hear what George Osborne had to say on

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this subject yesterday. We have a veto over

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whether Turkey joins or not. We have set conditions and we have

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made it absolutely clear that we will not accept new member

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states to the European Union and give them unfettered

:06:14.:06:15.

free movement of people unless their economies

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are much closer in size So Britain would block

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Turkish accession? We are absolutely clear that

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while countries might or might not accede, we have to make that

:06:24.:06:27.

decision at the time, they would only have free movement

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of people if the economies Is he right at the moment? Should it

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be something that would be put on hold? Would you want to see a veto

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exercised if, in talks on accession, the deal was that Turkey could

:06:48.:06:51.

quicken up its chances to become a member of the EU? That is part of

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Turkey's negotiation gambit in all this. To be honest I don't think

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there is any sign any time soon that Turkey will be part of the EU. As a

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country that wants to be it already has certain rights to trade and work

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with us but those rights are based on what we expect them to do. Apart

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from a whole number of other things, the other week we saw that a

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newspaper was shut down in Turkey. Beyond the economic side of things,

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part of being part of the EU is about freedom of speech, a free

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press and other things as well. Not just about Turkey but any country, I

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would say it has never been harder to become a member of the EU. If

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some of the tests were applied to day were applied before, there may

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be fewer countries in the EU. But Visa free travel for text has been

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discussed because there has to be a quid pro quo, and you can understand

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why Turkey would drive a hard bargain, they are the ones on the

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front line. Is it a price worth paying in order to get Turkey to

:07:51.:07:54.

deal with, to some extent, the flow of Syrian refugees and migrants? It

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doesn't work, Britain couldn't deliver it, neither could the French

:07:59.:08:02.

or Germans. We have seen how the German electorate are responding to

:08:03.:08:05.

the open borders policy Angela Merkel has had. It is something

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people on the continent of Europe have had enough of. People expect

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countries to restore control of the borders and to control the flows of

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migrants. Fundamentally it is not possible to do that while you are in

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the EU. We will come onto the EU in just a moment.

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Who or what did George Osborne ask to "keep it down"

:08:26.:08:30.

while he was writing his Budget in the House of Commons yesterday?

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Was it a) noisy protesters, b) squeaky House of Commons mice,

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or d) Top Gear, who were filming outside?

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At the end of the show, Caroline and Graham will give us

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Now, there have lots of questions in the media in recent weeks

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about the relationship between Labour's candidate

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for London Mayor, Sadiq Khan, and Babar Ahmad, the man known

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In an exclusive interview for the Victoria Derbyshire

:09:03.:09:09.

programme, Ahmad has talked for the first time about the nature

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In 2014, a US court sentenced Babar to 12.5 years in prison

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after admitting supporting terrorism.

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He and others ran an influential online operation, Azzam.com,

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propagating armed jihadist ideology from the late 1990s,

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Babar had spent 10 years in a British jail fighting

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During this time, Sadiq Khan met Mr Ahmad in jail and took

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The Labour MP for Tooting says he did this is his role

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as a constituency MP but acknowledges that he and Babar Ahmad

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In today's interview, Ahmad says he was "naive" to show

:09:53.:10:00.

support for the Taliban and had this to say about his relationship

:10:01.:10:02.

Sadiq Khan, he gave the same level of support to me that Zac Goldsmith

:10:03.:10:11.

and Boris Johnson said, which is basically that as a British

:10:12.:10:15.

citizen accused of crimes committed in this country,

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Was he visiting you as a friend, or a constituency MP?

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He was visiting me as a constituency MP.

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My family, and lots of people here in Tooting, they told him

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to come and visit me and he just came to visit me and see how I was.

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In my community, anyone who is not your enemy

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is a friend so in that sense, he is my friend.

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But I've never socialised with him or gone out to eat with him,

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He is probably an acquaintance more than a friend.

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How close were you before you were arrested in December 2003?

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I mean, Tooting is a small community.

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I remember every Saturday, he used to be standing at a stall

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for the Labour Party on Tooting High Street.

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If I saw him, I would go up to him and shake his hand.

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He is just someone that I knew, walking on the streets.

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In an interview in the last few days, Sadiq Khan said about you,

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"We were not close friends but we knew each other growing up".

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Have you met him since you arrived back in Britain in the last few

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Yes, I was travelling home one night on the tube with my lawyer

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and I bumped into him and shook his hand.

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You can watch the whole of that interview on the Victoria Derbyshire

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We asked for an interview with Sadiq Khan or one of his team,

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But we're joined now by Davis Lewin from the Foreign Policy Think Tank,

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What is your specific accusation against Sadiq Khan Chris Green we

:11:50.:11:55.

have to look at there is a matter of grave national

:11:56.:12:03.

security here with Babar Ahmad, many of whose assertions are open to

:12:04.:12:08.

significant challenge in terms of the interview he has given. No

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politician should have a relationship with a man such as

:12:12.:12:14.

this, certainly not campaigning for him in that way. I think there are

:12:15.:12:19.

some specific pieces that I question when it comes to Sadiq Khan and his

:12:20.:12:26.

past activities with Mr Ahmad. I think the most obvious one is the

:12:27.:12:28.

Rose report in which it is abundantly clear that Mr Khan had

:12:29.:12:34.

been registered to visit Mr Ahmad in prison as a friend long before he

:12:35.:12:38.

had been elected as an MP in that way. You say that no politician

:12:39.:12:43.

should ever have a relationship with someone like Babar Ahmad, but in the

:12:44.:12:47.

Sadiq Khan statement he says, he made it very clear that he was never

:12:48.:12:55.

a friend of Babar Ahmad's. He was a constituency MP, and that is when he

:12:56.:13:00.

visited Babar Ahmad, to represent him as a constituent, and Babar

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Ahmad has confirmed that is true. About Ahmad said in his interview

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that he received as much support from Zac Goldsmith and Boris Johnson

:13:08.:13:14.

as he did from Sadiq Khan, so what is the specific allegation apart

:13:15.:13:18.

from the fact that you perhaps don't like the fact that he visited him in

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jail? These are two completely different relationships. If we look

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at what the various politicians have done, there have been these claims,

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conservative politicians, Labour politicians meet with bad people, in

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the room with bad people and so forth. We have a clear case of a

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politician, it was not when he was an MP, it was before he was an MP,

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the police made that clear in their statement, he went to visit him as a

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friend, registered as a friend before that. The sister of Babar

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Ahmad is on the record as saying they were friends. We need to

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specify what you mean by friend. Because it is important, semantics

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and language here are very important. As we heard from Babar

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Ahmad in the interview he said, yes, we were friends because we were not

:14:06.:14:10.

enemies. They knew each other as childhood mates, they did not

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socialise together. They were not friends in the way that you might be

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with people that you see on a regular basis, do you accept that?

:14:17.:14:21.

If you have a convicted terrorist who, at the time sitting awaiting

:14:22.:14:26.

extradition, and he is being visited, and there is an

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extraordinarily clear protocol about who can visit under what

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circumstances, then I think the French bracket mean something. If

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you are registered to visit as a friend, this is not a generic term

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in that way, it is a specific thing. If I may say, Sadiq Khan wrote the

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foreword to a report that made outrageous claims, Franco propaganda

:14:46.:14:50.

as far as I am concerned, about the impact the Babar Ahmad case had on

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radicalisation in Britain, it had people like extremists even the

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Prime Minister has called out in it, in which he said he had known him

:15:01.:15:04.

for 15 years and he was a supporter of him. Let's look at the approved

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visitors scheme. It exempts a number of categories including legal

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advisers of categories including legal

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of Parliament, which would have prevented Sadiq Khan going as an MP,

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which is perhaps why the category of friend stayed rather than changed to

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be an MP because he would not have been able to visit him and he wanted

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to, because he was trying to fight extradition, which Boris Johnson was

:15:30.:15:33.

also doing. I do not see the differentiation between Boris

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Johnson and Sadiq Khan. This happened before he was an MP.

:15:35.:15:42.

When the police spoke to him, it was before he was elected as an MP which

:15:43.:15:46.

was later in the year. The interviews in the report before that

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and the police make clear he was forthcoming about it and it refers

:15:51.:15:53.

to a friend and a childhood friend and whatever else in that way. But

:15:54.:15:57.

there is a much broader issue at play. It is an extraordinarily grave

:15:58.:16:01.

issue of national security. This man is a convicted terrorist, there are

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no questions about no matter how they try to spin the interview or

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what happens in terms of seeking to make all sorts of claims about

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America and I don't know what an Sadiq Khan was one of the

:16:12.:16:14.

campaigners, among others, among some unsavoury groups, that had

:16:15.:16:18.

tried to paint this in a very different light. The categorical

:16:19.:16:22.

judgment of the US court, and this is absolutely clear, there can be no

:16:23.:16:27.

doubt he is a convicted terrorist. Why does it imply that Sadiq Khan

:16:28.:16:31.

had any sympathy for his views? He categorically state he did not, he

:16:32.:16:35.

did not support anything Babar Ahmad was accused of and later charged. He

:16:36.:16:40.

was representing him to some extent in the legal capacity. Yes, the term

:16:41.:16:44.

friend has been disputed, and then as an MP. There is nothing there

:16:45.:16:50.

that suggest Sadiq Khan sympathised, supported or had any connection with

:16:51.:16:54.

what Babar Ahmad was doing or has done since. You will have two asking

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yourself what exactly the relationship was and clearly he's

:16:59.:17:01.

not happy to come and tell you. Except he has said categorically

:17:02.:17:06.

they were not friends. Is he lying? I don't know if that is the right

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word. I know there are questions about the relation ship and I know

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the Rose report is clear about using the word friends. However, will say

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again, it's a matter of grave national security concern and one

:17:26.:17:27.

has to understand what the relationship was and we need to

:17:28.:17:29.

understand exactly why a politician would be in a relationship of that

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kind, supporting someone who ends up a convicted terrorist. Caroline

:17:32.:17:34.

Flint, do you accept that Sadiq Khan to be more forthcoming about the

:17:35.:17:36.

relationship? He has not come on today and not been as open and frank

:17:37.:17:39.

as he could be about the relationship or not that he had with

:17:40.:17:42.

Babar Ahmad. I think he's been very open. He can't come here because

:17:43.:17:46.

he's doing a visit in Bromley as part of his campaign but he has been

:17:47.:17:50.

open about this. To say something about this, before he was an MP,

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Sadiq Khan was a lawyer, involved with lots of human rights

:17:55.:18:00.

organisations and just like Zac Goldsmith and Boris Johnson, the

:18:01.:18:02.

three of them were against the changes to the extradition treaty

:18:03.:18:05.

between the UK and the US. That is why all three of them, in different

:18:06.:18:09.

ways, were questioning the detainment of this gentleman because

:18:10.:18:12.

he was being detained without trial pending extradition. Do you accept

:18:13.:18:19.

they were friends? No, I don't. But he did visit Babar Ahmad in the

:18:20.:18:23.

category of friend. As you pointed out, in order to get a visit, these

:18:24.:18:26.

things are about filling in forms and what have you. What I think is

:18:27.:18:36.

clear is that the man himself as they are not friends, since he's

:18:37.:18:39.

been back, he bumped into him on the tube late at night and I think there

:18:40.:18:42.

was something else when there was a community thing. Just to talk about

:18:43.:18:44.

Sadiq, he is a British Muslim who has faced demonstrations outside of

:18:45.:18:47.

mosques by more extreme views within Islam, as based step threats for

:18:48.:18:53.

supporting same-sex marriage -- has faced death threats. He has spoken

:18:54.:18:57.

against extremism and the negative campaigning we are hearing, not only

:18:58.:18:59.

from this gentleman but also from Zac Goldsmith during the Mayall

:19:00.:19:04.

contest is despicable. I think it is good to have British Muslims like

:19:05.:19:08.

Sadiq Khan willing to stand up and speak against extremism which is why

:19:09.:19:12.

he will be such a brilliant mayor for London. Has Sadiq Khan got a

:19:13.:19:17.

case to answer? I certainly think it's incumbent upon him to be as

:19:18.:19:21.

open and frank as possible. I think thereafter slightly different

:19:22.:19:24.

responses he has given in the past. My understanding is he told the new

:19:25.:19:28.

statement a year ago that Babar Ahmad, he saw him as a constituent

:19:29.:19:33.

and a friend. I think there has been a shading of the definitions. The

:19:34.:19:39.

thing is, Caroline Flint, you could view it that when it suited him,

:19:40.:19:43.

Siddique Khan has gained favour in his constituency by making a big

:19:44.:19:47.

deal of how well and long he has known Babar Ahmad and now it looks

:19:48.:19:51.

as though he's a liability to him becoming mayor of London, he's

:19:52.:19:56.

trying to distance himself? Identity there's anything that the has said

:19:57.:20:00.

in which he has supported what Babar Ahmad was accused of all defended

:20:01.:20:04.

his position, once he pleaded guilty and was extradited to America. I

:20:05.:20:10.

think Sadiq, as long as I've known him, has been very clear about how

:20:11.:20:14.

we have two fight extremism in Islam, which is affecting so many

:20:15.:20:18.

people in our country and elsewhere. He has talked about as mayor,

:20:19.:20:21.

standing up for better community integration but also being a figure

:20:22.:20:26.

who will stand up for the British Muslim community, to argue against

:20:27.:20:28.

those who spread such poison and hate within our country. When people

:20:29.:20:33.

are saying, why aren't we see more British Muslim standing up and

:20:34.:20:37.

saying that? He will stand up and say that, not just for British

:20:38.:20:40.

Muslims but for Londoners. I'm afraid the record is very different,

:20:41.:20:45.

let's look the at the record and the fax clearly. You can't say he did

:20:46.:20:50.

that wrong because it is the same wind of thing Babar Ahmad is saying

:20:51.:20:54.

about the US justice system. There are clear records. Babar Ahmad is a

:20:55.:20:57.

convicted terrorist and Sadiq Khan filled out a form to visit him in

:20:58.:21:01.

prison as a friend. These are facts on the record. When you look at the

:21:02.:21:04.

campaign about Babar Ahmad, it is clear that Sadiq Khan was a leading

:21:05.:21:07.

light in that campaign in terms of the way he spoke out and others did

:21:08.:21:12.

not. One of the things he indulged what the narrative that somehow, US

:21:13.:21:16.

justice is not good enough for a victor Mike that. But Boris Johnson

:21:17.:21:21.

and Zac Goldsmith said the same. -- a victim like that. The campaign had

:21:22.:21:25.

support from other quarters, not just the de Caen. You are trying to

:21:26.:21:30.

tarnish Sadiq Khan by association. I'm not trying to tarnish anybody,

:21:31.:21:34.

I'm trying to make sure the national security of this country is not put

:21:35.:21:37.

in the hands of people who have associations they should not have.

:21:38.:21:40.

What I'm saying very clearly because that is a very serious accusation is

:21:41.:21:43.

that the record shows there were people involved with the campaign,

:21:44.:21:47.

when it comes to the extradition but that is a separate matter. The

:21:48.:21:51.

extradition law at the time, the campaign is a separate matter to

:21:52.:21:59.

what happened about Babar Ahmad and the idea that US justice is not good

:22:00.:22:02.

enough. He has been convicted as a terrorist in the US court and Sadiq

:22:03.:22:04.

Khan wrote questionable things in that regard about whether we can

:22:05.:22:07.

trust the US justice system. But he was not alone. We have to finish

:22:08.:22:08.

there. Thank you. Now, they voted to remain in 1975.

:22:09.:22:10.

Now they're campaigning to leave. They voted to leave in 1975.

:22:11.:22:13.

Now they're campaigning to remain. Why have so many politicians swapped

:22:14.:22:16.

sides in the Europe debate? So, three weeks in and it

:22:17.:22:18.

feels like three months. The campaign ahead of the referendum

:22:19.:22:24.

on our membership of the EU Besides those who had pretty much

:22:25.:22:29.

made up their minds long before, it leaves many remaining baffled,

:22:30.:22:34.

bamboozled and bored. I need a break just trying

:22:35.:22:37.

to make sense of it all. Are people inners or outers

:22:38.:22:40.

based on sovereignty, security, patriotism,

:22:41.:22:43.

or is it something else? The centre of political

:22:44.:22:47.

gravity, in fact. Go back to 1975 and it was

:22:48.:22:55.

the Labour Party who A major chunk of the party

:22:56.:22:59.

wanted to keep out. They thought the EEC,

:23:00.:23:04.

as it was then, would be an obstacle to central planning,

:23:05.:23:07.

nationalisation and expansion The Conservatives, on the other

:23:08.:23:09.

hand, were pretty much united. The UK economy was in the doldrums

:23:10.:23:15.

and Europe, they thought, was a place of dynamism

:23:16.:23:19.

and enterprise. They hoped some of it

:23:20.:23:21.

would rub off on the UK. In the 1970s, it could be argued

:23:22.:23:25.

that two of our main political parties were to the left

:23:26.:23:29.

of the centre of gravity in the EEC, The Conservatives felt that

:23:30.:23:34.

continued membership of the EEC would drag the domestic centre

:23:35.:23:40.

of gravity to the right. What they thought they would get

:23:41.:23:43.

from Europe was That was why Margaret Thatcher

:23:44.:23:46.

was strongly in favour of Europe until really quite

:23:47.:23:50.

late in the 1980s. Her Euroscepticism came much later

:23:51.:23:53.

than many people think. Fast forward 41 years

:23:54.:23:58.

and the parties' roles are reversed. A large chunk of the Parliamentary

:23:59.:24:02.

party and grassroots want out. Brussels, they feel,

:24:03.:24:07.

is a brake on dynamism and economic growth and is holding back

:24:08.:24:09.

the free market. Immigration is

:24:10.:24:12.

uncontrollable from inside. Labour MPs, with a few notable

:24:13.:24:15.

exceptions, want us to stay They point to the social protections

:24:16.:24:18.

and defence of workers' rights. So what has happened

:24:19.:24:24.

in the intervening years? All this can be explained

:24:25.:24:27.

by gravity again. Mrs Thatcher takes the Conservative

:24:28.:24:33.

Party further to the right than the centre of gravity

:24:34.:24:35.

in the EEC and Europe. This leaves a vacuum which,

:24:36.:24:40.

under Neil Kinnock and Tony Blair, moves Labour closer to the European

:24:41.:24:43.

centre of gravity, in fact, pretty much ending up

:24:44.:24:47.

in exactly the same space. The key factor that changed

:24:48.:24:52.

Margaret Thatcher's attitude was a speech by Jacques Delors,

:24:53.:24:55.

the president of the European Commission, to the Trade

:24:56.:24:59.

Union Congress in 1988. He said that the trade unions

:25:00.:25:04.

could get benefits from Brussels that they had not been able

:25:05.:25:06.

to get from Westminster. That led Margaret Thatcher to say

:25:07.:25:10.

in her Bruges speech shortly afterwards that we had not expelled

:25:11.:25:13.

socialism by the front door in Britain, to have it brought

:25:14.:25:17.

in by the back door from Brussels. Since then, all parties'

:25:18.:25:22.

gravitational centres have I'm calling it Dilnot's Universal

:25:23.:25:23.

Law of Referendums. And we're joined now by Lord Lawson,

:25:24.:25:31.

who voted to remain in 1975 but is now campaigning to leave,

:25:32.:25:49.

and Neil Kinnock, who was an outer in 1975 but is now campaigning

:25:50.:25:52.

to remain in the EU. Bear with us! Why have you changed

:25:53.:26:03.

your mind? In the first place, the European Union has changed. I was

:26:04.:26:08.

already a little bit against it because in a way, although I was an

:26:09.:26:12.

MP, I refuse to campaign in the referendum campaign of 1975 but I

:26:13.:26:18.

did, and I make no bones about it, vote to remain. But what has changed

:26:19.:26:22.

is the European Union. The fundamental change, the Rubicon, the

:26:23.:26:28.

watershed was the introduction of the single currency. A single

:26:29.:26:31.

currency only makes sense if there is a fiscal union, which means a

:26:32.:26:35.

political union, which means the United States of Europe. That was

:26:36.:26:40.

when it changed? Absolutely. I remember a great argument I had with

:26:41.:26:45.

Hugh Gaskell, a little more than 15 years ago. He was passionately

:26:46.:26:50.

against joining the European Union because it would be a political

:26:51.:26:54.

union, and he said it would be the end of 1000 years of history for

:26:55.:26:58.

this country. I argued with him that it was largely about trade. I was

:26:59.:27:03.

wrong and he was right. Why have you changed your mind? Because the

:27:04.:27:07.

realities have changed. When I campaigned in 1975 to come out of

:27:08.:27:15.

the European Community and the common market, as we then called it,

:27:16.:27:19.

I was concerned to a degree about Parliamentary sovereignty, although

:27:20.:27:23.

not as much as many of my colleagues, including Michael foot

:27:24.:27:29.

and Tony Benn. My main preoccupation was the effect

:27:30.:27:33.

and Tony Benn. My main preoccupation Northern Europe would have in

:27:34.:27:34.

pulling away jobs and investment from the UK, notably of course, the

:27:35.:27:41.

part of it which I represented in South Wales. Over the intervening

:27:42.:27:46.

years, it has become clear, not just that the single market of the

:27:47.:27:49.

European Union has a strong social dimension, which is very appealing

:27:50.:27:54.

to working people and those that I represented, but even more

:27:55.:27:58.

importantly, that at the very time I was arguing about my concerns

:27:59.:28:02.

relating to the pull of jobs and investment, the European Community

:28:03.:28:10.

was developing a very well-developed regional policy in order to counter

:28:11.:28:18.

that effect. To the extent that now, something around 200,000 jobs in

:28:19.:28:23.

Wales relate directly to the single market. So they would go in your

:28:24.:28:27.

mind? I'm not saying that they would go but they relate directly to the

:28:28.:28:31.

kind of trade and investment religion chips that we have been

:28:32.:28:33.

able to establish and develop over 43 years and -- relationships. And

:28:34.:28:39.

in addition between the agricultural support payments under regional

:28:40.:28:42.

payments, Wales, on the periphery, as we used to call it, is getting

:28:43.:28:47.

roughly 1.7 billion per year directly from the European Union.

:28:48.:28:51.

Although interestingly, the polls show that quite a lot of people in

:28:52.:28:54.

Wales are Eurosceptic and would like to pull out. The case in 1975, I

:28:55.:28:59.

made an eyesore to articulated the arguments them, that I'm one of

:29:00.:29:03.

those -- and those who believe that Wales could be best served of

:29:04.:29:06.

pulling out of European Union I think are wrong. Graham Brady, has

:29:07.:29:10.

there been this political shift for both parties, if you like? These

:29:11.:29:14.

gentlemen have changed their minds and so have many of their

:29:15.:29:18.

compatriots. But generally, have both parties shifted to the right on

:29:19.:29:22.

this issue? I'm not sure they have both shifted to the right but I

:29:23.:29:25.

think there's been an enormous movement in the population here. But

:29:26.:29:30.

also in other European countries. There was a poll a couple of weeks

:29:31.:29:33.

ago that said 48% of Dutch people want to leave the European Union for

:29:34.:29:38.

precisely the reasons Nigel has articulated. People are seeing the

:29:39.:29:40.

fact this is now a very different thing. It does not fit with national

:29:41.:29:45.

democracy. It is taking choices away from people and preventing us from

:29:46.:29:48.

running our own countries in the way we want to run them. The problems

:29:49.:29:52.

they have got in the Eurozone, a crisis which is unresolved, the

:29:53.:29:55.

problem of dealing with migration which they have no way of resolving,

:29:56.:29:59.

it is coming home to people that the only way to settle these things is

:30:00.:30:03.

to change very profoundly from the settlement we have at the moment.

:30:04.:30:11.

Is there a point that actually in the 1970s the Tories were happy

:30:12.:30:19.

about the European project? They saw it as more entrepreneurial, more

:30:20.:30:22.

businesslike than this country was at that time during the turbulent

:30:23.:30:27.

1970s? Now they see it more as a left-wing venture, more socially

:30:28.:30:31.

cohesive, and that's why the Tories have gone off it? I do not think it

:30:32.:30:37.

is about left and right at all. What I would say about the change that

:30:38.:30:41.

has happened in the European Union, and also the fact it is quite right

:30:42.:30:47.

in theory as your correspondent pointed out that at that time the

:30:48.:30:52.

British economy was not doing very well, in the 70s. The European

:30:53.:30:55.

economy seemed to be doing very well. That carried an attraction.

:30:56.:31:00.

What has happened since then, thanks to the refunds of the Thatcher in

:31:01.:31:03.

error, we now have the strongest economy in Europe. -- the re-forms

:31:04.:31:10.

of the Thatcher era. Following the single currency the euro area is a

:31:11.:31:20.

disaster. I was Chancellor of the Exchequer for many years, I have had

:31:21.:31:24.

some responsibility for looking at economic policy and how economies

:31:25.:31:27.

work. In my considered judgment our success has got nothing to do with

:31:28.:31:32.

the European Union. Indeed we would do far better economic and if we

:31:33.:31:37.

were to leave. Any of the past that would be available after exit,

:31:38.:31:40.

whether it was the Norway option, Switzerland, Canadian or just

:31:41.:31:47.

relying on them would not give us adequate cover for the export of our

:31:48.:31:52.

services, including financial services to the remainder of the

:31:53.:31:55.

European Union and that could be devastating on its effect for the

:31:56.:31:59.

whole economy. As an ex-Chancellor, Nigel, you know very well that we

:32:00.:32:03.

depend very substantially, partly as a result of the changes that you

:32:04.:32:09.

referred to being made, very substantially on being a service

:32:10.:32:12.

economy with a very strong financial services sector. Even countries like

:32:13.:32:16.

Switzerland have not been able to negotiate. We would not have access

:32:17.:32:21.

the way we do if we left the European Union. Another country that

:32:22.:32:28.

has been able to negotiate for access? Forget all this nonsense.

:32:29.:32:32.

The great majority of the world is outside the European Union. The vast

:32:33.:32:37.

bulk of the world. Most of these countries now are doing well

:32:38.:32:40.

economic league, better than most of the countries in the European union.

:32:41.:32:46.

Take a service that is close to your heart, television programmes. Do you

:32:47.:32:51.

think suddenly it will be impossible to sell television programmes to the

:32:52.:32:54.

European Union? That is way above my pay grade. You are saying that we

:32:55.:33:00.

can get the access that we have now when we are not members of the

:33:01.:33:04.

European Union. We will do far better. Gentleman, hold fire. I am

:33:05.:33:12.

not prepared to gamble my grandchildren's future. You should

:33:13.:33:17.

be concerned about being a self-governing democracy. We are.

:33:18.:33:21.

That brings me back, on a self-governing authority, how much

:33:22.:33:24.

of this is about sovereignty, or is this to some extent a red herring?

:33:25.:33:29.

For you and some of your older colleagues in the Labour Party, they

:33:30.:33:32.

have gone on a political journey, are you surprised that there are

:33:33.:33:37.

hardly any in the Shadow Cabinet who would campaign vigorously to leave?

:33:38.:33:42.

I am not surprised. I think compared to 1975 we are in a different type

:33:43.:33:45.

of world, much more interconnected. And a different type of party? A

:33:46.:33:50.

different type of party but we more interconnected. It is about the

:33:51.:33:54.

economy but it is about security as well and things like the

:33:55.:33:57.

environment. We cannot put up Fortress Britain around our shores

:33:58.:34:03.

to deal with problems of pollution. But we are not part of the Schengen

:34:04.:34:09.

zone now. I hear this, we are not part of Schengen, we are not part of

:34:10.:34:16.

the euro, we can make decisions. I hate the whole project fear thing, I

:34:17.:34:20.

want us to have a debate about the real world. If we leave the European

:34:21.:34:24.

Union, the questions are still not being answered as to what the world

:34:25.:34:28.

would look like for Great Britain. Because if we want to trade like

:34:29.:34:31.

America, like other countries around the world, like the Canadians, the

:34:32.:34:36.

Swiss, the Norwegians, they will have to die loot what they can ask

:34:37.:34:38.

for in order to trade within the EU. A simple vision of what it looks

:34:39.:34:47.

like for Britain out, never mind comparisons with other countries who

:34:48.:34:50.

have their own arrangements, how would it be unique for Britain? A

:34:51.:34:57.

free democracy that makes its own laws can decide who governs them and

:34:58.:35:00.

boots out if they don't like them. And the ability to control our

:35:01.:35:04.

borders. But we do control our own borders. There are people coming

:35:05.:35:10.

into the United Kingdom without us having any control whatsoever. And

:35:11.:35:13.

when it comes to trade we're seeing service export is twice as fast to

:35:14.:35:19.

countries outside the EU compared to those inside. But if we had to rely

:35:20.:35:25.

entirely on World Trade Organisation arrangements we certainly would not

:35:26.:35:29.

get the kind of cover from those kind of arrangements that we get as

:35:30.:35:34.

being part of the European Union. Most services in this country will

:35:35.:35:40.

tell you, the single market has been resisted. It will happen. People

:35:41.:35:46.

have been saying that for 30 years. You know very well that ever since

:35:47.:35:49.

the establishment of the single market by the government of which

:35:50.:35:55.

Nigel was a part, and it was a great stride forward, there have been

:35:56.:36:00.

incremental improvements to extend the single market in services and

:36:01.:36:04.

that is ongoing at this very moment. It will continue and it will be

:36:05.:36:09.

achieved. One way it will not be achieved, of course, is if the

:36:10.:36:12.

United Kingdom is not there to argue for it. For we finish, can David

:36:13.:36:17.

Cameron survive as Prime Minister if the UK votes to leave? I hope the UK

:36:18.:36:24.

will vote to leave, and when that happens I think it is important that

:36:25.:36:27.

David Cameron remains Prime Minister, I would like a period of

:36:28.:36:31.

stability and calm. We should have a period of discussion about how we

:36:32.:36:36.

approach the renegotiation. Two years in which to renegotiate, I

:36:37.:36:41.

thought you would be arguing that the last thing you would want is

:36:42.:36:47.

huge uproar and upheaval when they are fighting for our country's life.

:36:48.:36:53.

Does Nigel Lawson agree? Should he and can he remain? It is his

:36:54.:36:56.

responsibility after a vote which I hope will come to leave the European

:36:57.:37:00.

Union, it is his responsibility to implement the will of the British

:37:01.:37:04.

people. Is it realistic for him to stay? Perfectly realistic. What

:37:05.:37:10.

about Jeremy Corbyn, do you think he is as enthusiastic about remaining

:37:11.:37:14.

as you are? He has made a strong commitment and he has made that very

:37:15.:37:18.

evident. Whether he has got the detailed engagement that I have been

:37:19.:37:22.

fortunate enough to have I do not know. But I do know that in terms of

:37:23.:37:25.

principles, opportunities, safeguarding the future of the

:37:26.:37:29.

British people, he is very favourable. Would you like to see

:37:30.:37:34.

him campaign a bit more visibly? He's got a certain preoccupation

:37:35.:37:38.

with the current elections. I anticipate that after those

:37:39.:37:41.

elections he and his colleagues will be fully engaged in arguing for a

:37:42.:37:47.

Remain vote. Gentleman, you are fully engaged in arguing for both

:37:48.:37:51.

sides of this argument. Now to Scotland.

:37:52.:37:54.

On Saturday, Nicola Sturgeon told the SNP spring conference that

:37:55.:37:56.

if her party was returned to government in May,

:37:57.:37:58.

the party would begin to build a new case for Scottish independence

:37:59.:38:01.

Here's the First Minister, telling conference about her

:38:02.:38:04.

"beautiful dream" of an independent Scotland.

:38:05.:38:09.

Our dream is for Scotland to become independent,

:38:10.:38:13.

to be in the driving seat of our own destiny,

:38:14.:38:16.

to shape our own future, and on the basis of

:38:17.:38:20.

equality, with our family across the British Isles

:38:21.:38:23.

and our friends across the globe, to play our part in building

:38:24.:38:26.

That is a beautiful dream and we believe in it.

:38:27.:38:34.

Can any of the Unionist parties stop her in pursuing that beautiful

:38:35.:38:48.

dream? And the Scottish Liberal Democrat

:38:49.:38:49.

Leader, Willie Rennie, The Liberal Democrats are heading

:38:50.:38:58.

for almost total wipe-out in Scotland. Could the Scottish Liberal

:38:59.:39:02.

Democrats become extinct? This is dismal tour, we have a great chance

:39:03.:39:08.

of growing. For two reasons. If you look at our team in Hollywood, we've

:39:09.:39:12.

punched well above our weight in holding the SNP to account on the

:39:13.:39:18.

police, investigating in colleges. Also the second thing, we've got a

:39:19.:39:21.

big, bold package for this election. We are standing up for an investment

:39:22.:39:27.

of a penny on income tax for education. Like Labour? Actually

:39:28.:39:32.

yes, like Labour, but we are proposing it for education, to have

:39:33.:39:37.

a transformational effect of ?475 million for a pupil premium for

:39:38.:39:41.

nursery education but also for our colleges. It is different from

:39:42.:39:44.

Labour but it is bold and I think it is progressive. It may be bold, but

:39:45.:39:50.

to anybody listening, policy suggestions might be eye-catching

:39:51.:39:53.

but where is the evidence people are listening to you to deliver it? The

:39:54.:39:58.

latest polls in February, Liberal Democrats polling four to 6%. We

:39:59.:40:02.

know the polls are not always correct but even so, where is your

:40:03.:40:09.

evidence? In different parts of Scotland our message is penetrating,

:40:10.:40:15.

and we can see it. How can you see it? Will it turn into seats? Yes, I

:40:16.:40:19.

believe we are going to go this time. How many? It would be wrong

:40:20.:40:23.

for me to start predicting. You sound very confident? I am, because

:40:24.:40:29.

we have a bold package and a team that punches above its weight. If

:40:30.:40:34.

you think it is a good idea to have the Scottish parliament dominated by

:40:35.:40:37.

the Scottish National party, you only have to look at some of the

:40:38.:40:40.

mistakes they've made in the last few years to realise that is not a

:40:41.:40:44.

good thing. We need diversity, a strong voice for liberal values that

:40:45.:40:48.

I stand up for. Would you ever consider joining any of the other

:40:49.:40:51.

parties in the Scottish parliament? If you are worried about the

:40:52.:40:56.

dominance of the SNP, and that shows no signs of abating, why not join

:40:57.:41:00.

another party? Because I am a Liberal Democrat. You could join

:41:01.:41:05.

forces. We work together on a variety of things. We worked

:41:06.:41:08.

together on the referendum, on budget. And you share this policy

:41:09.:41:12.

with Scottish Labour, who are also struggling, this idea of a penny on

:41:13.:41:16.

income tax. Wouldn't it be worthwhile in your bid to stop the

:41:17.:41:21.

rise of the SNP to join forces? The best way to get the most votes in

:41:22.:41:25.

the election is to be clear, distinct, and campaigned vigorously

:41:26.:41:28.

in the part of the country that you've got a great chance of

:41:29.:41:31.

winning, and that's exactly what we are doing. I'm not interesting in

:41:32.:41:38.

pre-election pact is, that's for other people to talk about. I am

:41:39.:41:40.

interested in making progress in this election. I think we have

:41:41.:41:44.

turned the corner. We had a difficult five years. But this time

:41:45.:41:48.

round with a bold package and a great team we have a great chance of

:41:49.:41:52.

progressing. So nobody has talked to you about joining forces on

:41:53.:41:55.

anything. What about if the Conservatives leapfrog labour? Ruth

:41:56.:41:59.

Davidson was putting that forward, cosy at a bail denied it would ever

:42:00.:42:04.

happen. Again, would you do a deal with the Conservatives? Is that a

:42:05.:42:09.

dismal prospect? Dismal prospect of having the Conservatives who talk

:42:10.:42:13.

about the SNP all the time, the SNP who talk about the Conservatives all

:42:14.:42:17.

the time, feeding off each other. One determined in part to break up

:42:18.:42:21.

the European Union, the other determined to break up the United

:42:22.:42:24.

Kingdom. We need parties that stand up for progressive politics and

:42:25.:42:29.

keeping our country together. If the EU referendum delivers a Leave vote

:42:30.:42:33.

in June, is there a scenario where the Scottish Liberal Democrats would

:42:34.:42:37.

support the idea of a second Scottish independence referendum? I

:42:38.:42:41.

want to stop all this, and that is the danger in the Conservatives just

:42:42.:42:44.

now with their divisions on Europe, they are really risking another

:42:45.:42:48.

independence referendum. We could end up using the two great unions of

:42:49.:42:52.

the United Kingdom, partly because the Conservatives are so divided on

:42:53.:42:56.

the issue, as we heard from Nicola Sturgeon in the clip, she is

:42:57.:42:59.

determined to have another independence referendum. We should

:43:00.:43:02.

be moving on for the next five years to talk about the big issues that

:43:03.:43:07.

face this country. It is about protecting the environment,

:43:08.:43:09.

investing in education, keeping what's best in our NHS, but also

:43:10.:43:14.

guaranteeing Civil Liberties. That's the focus for the next five years,

:43:15.:43:18.

not all this constitutional forever Meisel gave think that those two

:43:19.:43:22.

parties are determined to do. -- nasal gazing.

:43:23.:43:26.

Now, time to have a look at some of the stories coming up

:43:27.:43:29.

On Tuesday, the Leave and Remain campaigns with be marking 100 days

:43:30.:43:33.

until polling day in the EU referendum,

:43:34.:43:35.

Also on Tuesday, the Northern Powerhouse will be in the spotlight

:43:36.:43:38.

when Lord Adonis releases the final report of his

:43:39.:43:41.

National Infrastructure Commission ahead of the Budget.

:43:42.:43:44.

That's on Wednesday, when George Osborne when he says

:43:45.:43:46.

equivalent to 50p in every ?100 of Government spending.

:43:47.:43:53.

We'll have live coverage here on BBC2, of course.

:43:54.:43:57.

On Thursday, David Cameron will be meeting with other EU leaders

:43:58.:44:02.

in Brussels, where they are supposed to be finalising the deal

:44:03.:44:05.

We're joined now by Tom Newton Dunn from the Sun and The Guardian's

:44:06.:44:10.

Tom, let's start with your story about the Queen backing Brexit, was

:44:11.:44:25.

Michael Gove your source? Nice try. We never talk about our sources. At

:44:26.:44:29.

least I was open and transparent about it. He shut it down. So where

:44:30.:44:39.

does it go from here? Buckingham Palace has launched a formal

:44:40.:44:42.

complaint with the press watchdog and yet there are still stories that

:44:43.:44:48.

she was upset because of a so-called sermon and Nick Clegg, what say you?

:44:49.:44:52.

We say we standing by this, defending the complaint vigorously.

:44:53.:44:56.

We expect that want to be interesting as it plays out. I

:44:57.:44:59.

cannot tell you exactly what the Palace have complained about because

:45:00.:45:02.

it is confidential but it will be interesting when that emerges

:45:03.:45:06.

itself. We are taking the story on a little bit in our paper and have

:45:07.:45:09.

another account of the quite extraordinary exchange to win the

:45:10.:45:13.

Queen, Nick Clegg in Windsor Castle a few years ago. This time from a

:45:14.:45:17.

royal courtiers saying it was Nick Clegg that started the debate by

:45:18.:45:22.

giving the Queen sermon, and the Queen responded reasonably

:45:23.:45:25.

witheringly, so the story goes on. Of course there is the urgent

:45:26.:45:30.

question tabled by Tom Watson in the House of Commons just now, as we

:45:31.:45:33.

just discovered, about the Privy Council and various different

:45:34.:45:36.

infringements he believes have happened in it. So it will roll on

:45:37.:45:38.

and on. At least you know that one of the

:45:39.:45:47.

prime views of this show is the Queen so on Georges caught

:45:48.:45:51.

everything you just that. Could the budget be rather boring? Certainly,

:45:52.:45:54.

people have not been very interested so far, largely because, as you know

:45:55.:45:58.

we're right in the middle of the election and lots of the good

:45:59.:46:02.

stories, of course, Tom with the one around the Queen and we're looking

:46:03.:46:04.

forward to that confidential complaint, when the sun breaks it in

:46:05.:46:13.

the future! Do you? LAUGHTER I do think it is an important moment

:46:14.:46:17.

the George Osborne. He still has his eyes on the Tory crown and he will

:46:18.:46:21.

want to make a real statement on Wednesday, despite the fact he has

:46:22.:46:24.

been getting us ready for the fact there could be spending cuts,

:46:25.:46:28.

further spending cuts to come because of this ?4 billion of extra

:46:29.:46:32.

savings that they need to find. The thing he has been talking about is

:46:33.:46:35.

his manifesto promises to the British people. Really, he's going

:46:36.:46:40.

to want to make progress on that raising of the upper threshold, the

:46:41.:46:45.

raising of the personal allowance. I believe he is a political Chancellor

:46:46.:46:48.

and Isis Becky will want to pull out a rabbit of the hat. I'm sure he

:46:49.:46:52.

will and you are right but the problem is, he does not have much

:46:53.:46:55.

room for manoeuvre because of his own rules and wanting to get a

:46:56.:47:00.

surplus. Do you think he's beginning to regret that? He's written an

:47:01.:47:04.

awful lot of checks at the last general election in the Conservative

:47:05.:47:07.

Party manifesto, some of which we just heard about. Even in the good

:47:08.:47:11.

times, it was going to be hard to catch the Czechs, tax cuts for low

:47:12.:47:14.

income and higher income earners across the board. Now the times are

:47:15.:47:18.

even tighter, he's an even more physical trouble. Chancellors always

:47:19.:47:22.

find money from somewhere when they need it, that's the rule of all

:47:23.:47:26.

budgets but this one has a second dynamic which is the EU referendum

:47:27.:47:29.

which is pervading everything we say and do, tragically, down here. His

:47:30.:47:33.

issue is, he would love to do something bold, the first budget of

:47:34.:47:38.

a new parliament, the time to really cause trouble and dig in but he

:47:39.:47:41.

can't because the Tory MPs almost certainly won't back him if it's

:47:42.:47:45.

controversial. Also desperate to try to prove that the party is still

:47:46.:47:48.

working, the government is still united and they can still do

:47:49.:47:51.

interesting things but I think when it comes to it, he's going to on the

:47:52.:47:55.

side of caution and it will probably be most boring budget we have seen

:47:56.:47:59.

in a long time. -- he's going to go on the side of caution. Now I'm

:48:00.:48:04.

disappointed. Taking that into account, only ?4 billion worth of

:48:05.:48:09.

cuts, it may be tempting to raise fuel duty and it may be tempting to

:48:10.:48:13.

do something, as Tom alluded to, to throw some red meat to the Tory

:48:14.:48:18.

grassroots. That he's already been warned against taxing businesses

:48:19.:48:21.

further. Is it going to be mainly from welfare? I think the difficulty

:48:22.:48:27.

for him is where he finds the money. He's already backed off pension

:48:28.:48:31.

reforms because of Tory backbenchers. As you say, fuel duty,

:48:32.:48:35.

there were hints he might increase it by RPI but there are something

:48:36.:48:39.

like 160 backbenchers who will try to stop him from doing that,

:48:40.:48:43.

including a lot on his own backbenchers. One thing we already

:48:44.:48:47.

know is going to happen is the ?1.2 billion saving from reforms to

:48:48.:48:50.

disability benefits and I suspect that's an area where we will see a

:48:51.:48:54.

big push back from Labour and charities tomorrow, these reforms to

:48:55.:48:58.

the personal independence payment. Anywhere else that he tries to save

:48:59.:49:03.

money on something Labour will rake over. We can expect a lot of stealth

:49:04.:49:08.

taxes, like increases in insurance premiums, that are already going to

:49:09.:49:11.

annoy motorists so maybe he won't want to go further with fuel duty as

:49:12.:49:15.

well. Thank you for joining us. Enjoy it, anyway, even if it is not

:49:16.:49:17.

as exciting as you hoped. Now, are your ready

:49:18.:49:20.

for BoJo versus Obama? Boris Johnson has criticised

:49:21.:49:22.

Barack Obama, following reports that he is preparing to come

:49:23.:49:24.

to the UK to tell us to stay in the the EU, calling it

:49:25.:49:27.

"a piece of outrageous Now that would be a head-to-head

:49:28.:49:30.

debate worth watching! As he was born in the US,

:49:31.:49:38.

Boris is one of the few UK politicians

:49:39.:49:41.

eligible to become President. for a documentary that

:49:42.:49:45.

goes out tonight, I asked him about his

:49:46.:49:50.

ambitions closer to home. How has it changed,

:49:51.:49:54.

your relationship with the Prime Minister, since you decided

:49:55.:49:57.

to campaign for Leave? You know, you have got

:49:58.:49:59.

to understand that my relationships and friendships

:50:00.:50:01.

with government go back They are pretty much invulnerable.

:50:02.:50:02.

Are they? Yes, to any short-term,

:50:03.:50:09.

you know, disagreements So you are still friends?

:50:10.:50:11.

Yes, of course. You once said, which is true,

:50:12.:50:14.

that you had a greater chance of being reincarnated as an olive...

:50:15.:50:22.

Yes. You remember, than

:50:23.:50:24.

you did about being Or a baked bean, or decapitated

:50:25.:50:25.

by Frisbee or locked But actually, looking at it now,

:50:26.:50:29.

there's no one more likely to be Honestly, David Cameron

:50:30.:50:35.

is doing a great job, everyone knows that and there's

:50:36.:50:39.

a long way to go before And we're joined now

:50:40.:50:41.

by Boris Johnson's biogapher, Welcome to the show. Opposing David

:50:42.:50:53.

Cameron is one thing but do you think Boris has bitten off more than

:50:54.:50:57.

he can chew in having a go at Barack Obama? Orange Mokoka he's had a go

:50:58.:51:00.

at him before about parking fines, which the American Embassy in London

:51:01.:51:04.

refuses to pay. It is one of his best columns, actually, I think. It

:51:05.:51:08.

is a point which will have struck almost anyone who has been to

:51:09.:51:09.

America that they have a very strong almost anyone who has been to

:51:10.:51:13.

sense of nationhood and you can't do anything which infringes American

:51:14.:51:23.

sovereignty and yet, here they are, advising us to join the European

:51:24.:51:25.

Union. It's a completely contradictory position and Boris and

:51:26.:51:28.

many of us has bolted but he put it very trenchantly today. His speech

:51:29.:51:31.

on Brexit last week could only be described, I suppose as vintage

:51:32.:51:33.

Boris but is it the right approach to winning, first the referendum

:51:34.:51:37.

campaign and then that really do ship? I think he's a bit like the

:51:38.:51:41.

British Army, whenever we get in a war, we usually have several

:51:42.:51:44.

catastrophes before we get the hang of it. He's starting to get the hang

:51:45.:51:48.

of it, I think but he was in a mess to begin with because his initial

:51:49.:51:51.

pitch was he would do a better deal than Cameron and that was not

:51:52.:51:55.

sufficient differentiation. It certainly did not involve a

:51:56.:51:57.

trenchant defence of national sovereignty which many Tory

:51:58.:52:02.

Eurosceptics would think was at the heart of the argument. Do you think

:52:03.:52:07.

everything Boris does is seen through the prism of becoming Prime

:52:08.:52:11.

Minister? No, I think he also wants to amuse us. I would say most MPs, I

:52:12.:52:19.

don't know about present company but most MPs, the thought has

:52:20.:52:22.

occasionally crossed their minds, I think that they might and certainly,

:52:23.:52:25.

some of the most implausible candidates have stood for the

:52:26.:52:28.

leadership of both the Labour and Conservative Party in the past so I

:52:29.:52:31.

don't think you can hold it against Boris but he thinks about it as

:52:32.:52:35.

well. Sometimes implausible candidates win! Who are you thinking

:52:36.:52:40.

of? Are you running for the leadership? You will be the

:52:41.:52:46.

returning officer! That's not very ambitious. You could do better. It

:52:47.:52:54.

would sue John Mantle. But you say he had this motivation to amuse us.

:52:55.:52:59.

Would the public view him as an amusing mayor of London but

:53:00.:53:03.

certainly not someone they could consider as Prime Minister? Identity

:53:04.:53:07.

no because both as a journalist and a politician, he is extremely agile

:53:08.:53:11.

and that can be dismissed as opportunism and it can also be

:53:12.:53:14.

regarded as a kind of enlightened pragmatism, because when the story

:53:15.:53:18.

changes he changes his view. It depends what the want. But if the

:53:19.:53:24.

millions of undecided voters need reassurance at the moment, then

:53:25.:53:28.

Boris jumping about all over the place may not provide it. Was it

:53:29.:53:33.

risky, his decision? You know many people have accused him of not being

:53:34.:53:37.

authentic, that he was somebody who really was an instinctive inner. Do

:53:38.:53:43.

you believe that? It was risky but it was an unenviable choice. Either

:53:44.:53:48.

he became a loyal member of the Cameron - Osborne machine... But if

:53:49.:53:51.

that is what he believes, people say you should support what you believe

:53:52.:53:56.

rather than just be pragmatic? He believes he would be a lot better

:53:57.:54:00.

than George Osborne and indie David Cameron. He's a lot brighter and

:54:01.:54:03.

prepared to take the necessary risks, to drive a hard deal in

:54:04.:54:08.

Brussels. But will he get on the ballot paper? If that was the cow

:54:09.:54:10.

collision that he needed to guarantee being on the ballot, to

:54:11.:54:14.

differentiate himself between him and George Osborne before he went to

:54:15.:54:19.

the grassroots, do you think you will end up...? Identity no because

:54:20.:54:22.

the frontrunner has not won this race since 1955 when Anthony Eden

:54:23.:54:26.

succeeded Churchill so it's very unpredictable. If in the next few

:54:27.:54:30.

months, he confirms his position as the darling of many Tory activists,

:54:31.:54:34.

then many Tory MPs will be bitterly criticised if they don't make him

:54:35.:54:38.

one of the last two. Is Simon Heffer right when he says only a handful of

:54:39.:54:41.

MPs will support Boris before we get to the grassroots? I'm going to be

:54:42.:54:49.

very boring... Don't be boring! I am applying to be the returning officer

:54:50.:54:53.

so I don't think I should say. You have thought about this before you

:54:54.:55:00.

came on. I'm disappointed in you. Are there only a few MPs who would

:55:01.:55:04.

support Boris? I'm not even asking you, of your colleagues, would only

:55:05.:55:09.

a few of them support? I've no idea, it is entirely up to my colleagues.

:55:10.:55:14.

You must've had those conversations, surely. I have lots of private

:55:15.:55:19.

conversations. And the word Private is instructive. Does Boris on the

:55:20.:55:23.

mentally believe in anything? Yes, lots of things, I would say. --

:55:24.:55:29.

fundamentally believe. He's a merry England Conservative, let people

:55:30.:55:32.

enjoy themselves, he's completely uncensored aura is and he could not

:55:33.:55:35.

stand up for some thing like marriage. -- an censorious. He wants

:55:36.:55:42.

the genius of the induce people to be expressed in whatever way John

:55:43.:55:47.

Bull happens to think is a good idea at the time. Caroline Flint, do you

:55:48.:55:52.

find him using? On occasion and I have to say, some people like to

:55:53.:55:56.

portray Boris Johnson as some kind of buffoon. I've never

:55:57.:56:00.

underestimated him. I don't know him personally but I've always thought,

:56:01.:56:03.

the way in which he goes on zip wires and what have you is part of,

:56:04.:56:09.

I think, quite calculated, in some respects, it's part of his

:56:10.:56:11.

personality but it is also to deflect sometimes from other things

:56:12.:56:14.

that I think a more serious. It's interesting he's having a go at

:56:15.:56:18.

America and Barack Obama on the fact that they would say, we find it

:56:19.:56:22.

easier to deal with a block than different countries. When the people

:56:23.:56:27.

who want to leave the European Union wanted, they use America as an

:56:28.:56:29.

example of why we should leave and then we don't -- they don't like it

:56:30.:56:33.

when the American president says he likes working with the EU. I think

:56:34.:56:36.

it's a bit rich. Thank you for joining us.

:56:37.:56:38.

And viewers in London can watch the documentary,

:56:39.:56:40.

Boris: The London Years, on BBC One at 7:30pm.

:56:41.:56:42.

There's just time before we go to find out the answer to our quiz.

:56:43.:56:46.

The question was, who or what did George Osborne ask to "keep it down"

:56:47.:56:50.

while he was writing his Budget in the House of Commons yesterday?

:56:51.:56:53.

Was it A - noisy protesters, B - squeaky House of Commons mice

:56:54.:56:56.

or D - Top Gear, who were filming outside?

:56:57.:57:00.

So Caroline and Graham, what's the correct answer?

:57:01.:57:02.

Matt LeBlanc, doing Top Gear outside. I think we can show you

:57:03.:57:10.

some footage, or maybe only the picture of the team. What do you

:57:11.:57:16.

think? No, here it is. Do you think it was inappropriate to film by the

:57:17.:57:21.

Senate after over the weekend -- by the Cenotaph. It looks a bit close

:57:22.:57:26.

for comfort. I've not seen this before. You would have said no? I

:57:27.:57:31.

think there should be an exclusion zone. The defence that was put out

:57:32.:57:36.

earlier was that it was a long lens and it was not near Cenotaph but

:57:37.:57:39.

unless it was a really long lens, it looked quite close. Had you seen it

:57:40.:57:45.

before? I saw the photographs but it looks very close to the Cenotaph,

:57:46.:57:49.

even closer than the better grass suggested. Presenter Chris Evans has

:57:50.:57:53.

said the footage will not be used following the complaints. Are you a

:57:54.:57:59.

fan of the programme anyway, Graham? Yes, I think it is usually fun. It

:58:00.:58:02.

is good that they push the boundaries but maybe sometimes they

:58:03.:58:06.

push them a bit too far. You are not a returning officer on this or you

:58:07.:58:11.

can safely say. What about you? I don't really watch it but hearing

:58:12.:58:18.

Jeremy Clarkson said we should stay European Union, how interesting is

:58:19.:58:24.

that? You brought it back to that! So Europe larks and fan? His family

:58:25.:58:29.

are from near my constituency. I've not seen him in my constituency in a

:58:30.:58:33.

genius but there you go. I bet you never thought that would be so

:58:34.:58:34.

fascinating. That's all for today.

:58:35.:58:36.

Thanks to our guests. The one o'clock news is starting

:58:37.:58:38.

over on BBC One now. I'll be here at noon tomorrow

:58:39.:58:41.

with all the big political stories And we will no doubt be talking

:58:42.:58:44.

about the EU and the budget. Do join me then.

:58:45.:58:52.

Goodbye.

:58:53.:58:54.

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