22/06/2016 Daily Politics


22/06/2016

Similar Content

Browse content similar to 22/06/2016. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!

Transcript


LineFromTo

The final live debate of the EU referendum campaign took place

:00:37.:00:42.

at Wembley Arena last night in front of thousands of people.

:00:43.:00:47.

We talk to Andrea Leadsom from Leave and Kezia Dugdale from Remain.

:00:48.:00:52.

Politicians are making their final pitch for votes in the last

:00:53.:00:55.

day of campaigning, emphasising their main arguments

:00:56.:00:56.

And we have a full guide explaining everything you need to know to get

:00:57.:01:07.

Going to bed at seven o'clock in the evening and maybe waking up

:01:08.:01:14.

You even get sleeping advice on this programme. I don't know what more we

:01:15.:01:37.

can do as a public service broadcaster.

:01:38.:01:38.

And with us for the whole of the programme today

:01:39.:01:42.

are the Leader of the Labour Party in Scotland, Kezia Dugdale,

:01:43.:01:45.

in the EU and the Energy Minister, Andrea Leadsom,

:01:46.:01:48.

Now just last night, Andrea was on the stage at Wembley Arena

:01:49.:01:53.

debating live in front of thousands of people.

:01:54.:01:55.

You must have quite some stamina to be on the Daily

:01:56.:01:58.

The BBC's Great Debate featured almost two hours of questions

:01:59.:02:01.

on immigration, the economy and sovereignty and Andrea was one

:02:02.:02:05.

Let's give you a flavour of what happened.

:02:06.:02:14.

They came not for a Bon Jovi concert or Spice Girls reunion

:02:15.:02:17.

but for the BBC's Great Debate, and they came from everywhere.

:02:18.:02:20.

4 million switched on at home and there were thousands in the arena.

:02:21.:02:30.

We've got a massive stage, which has got six lecterns on it.

:02:31.:02:34.

It perked up as the credits rolled and straightaway it was blue on blue

:02:35.:02:47.

as the Conservative panellists clashed on the economy.

:02:48.:02:51.

Small businesses are the backbone of our economy and I know that some

:02:52.:02:54.

people can find the EU a bit frustrating and fussy but what it

:02:55.:02:57.

does, it provides a level playing field so that you can't be

:02:58.:03:00.

undercut by other companies in other parts of the world.

:03:01.:03:04.

That's why eight out of ten of the CBI's small-business members

:03:05.:03:06.

Most economies can agree free trade deals within two years.

:03:07.:03:12.

The European Union is taking ten years or never at all.

:03:13.:03:17.

Because 28 member states cannot even organise a takeaway curry,

:03:18.:03:22.

let alone what they are going to do on free trade with the rest

:03:23.:03:27.

And it was mayor on ex-mayor over war and peace.

:03:28.:03:33.

It's not a choice between the EU and Nato or the EU and allies.

:03:34.:03:37.

We can still have a special relationship with the USA and be

:03:38.:03:39.

And tell me this, anyone of you, which one of our allies -

:03:40.:03:44.

USA, Canada, New Zealand, Australia...

:03:45.:03:45.

Which one of the Nato members is encouraging us to leave the EU?

:03:46.:03:50.

The European Union is not keeping up with the deal.

:03:51.:03:54.

It is creating unemployment in Greece, it is outsourcing

:03:55.:03:57.

It is undermining Nato by trying to duplicate the same structures.

:03:58.:04:05.

And there was a to-do about the number of immigrants

:04:06.:04:08.

And I think the Leave campaign are selling people a big con,

:04:09.:04:12.

You have never promised to reduce numbers.

:04:13.:04:20.

Has the Leave campaign ever promised to reduce numbers?

:04:21.:04:22.

What we said is you take back control and you can decide.

:04:23.:04:27.

On the second debate stage, there was definitely passion.

:04:28.:04:36.

I think it's a bit rich that the Remain side are so devoid

:04:37.:04:40.

of any arguments that they have to smear us as racists and bigots,

:04:41.:04:44.

I went to a business in my constituency last Friday

:04:45.:04:50.

and they are a small business, they are exporting to Romania.

:04:51.:04:53.

They have a contract to provide play equipment over there.

:04:54.:04:57.

That contract is entirely contingent - there is a clause in that contract

:04:58.:05:00.

that if we vote Out on Friday, they lose that contract.

:05:01.:05:03.

That is the case for hundreds of businesses across the country.

:05:04.:05:06.

As the clock counted down to the finale, Boris

:05:07.:05:08.

Johnson got the last word and a standing ovation.

:05:09.:05:12.

If we stand up for democracy, we will be speaking up for hundreds

:05:13.:05:15.

of millions of people around Europe who agree with us but who

:05:16.:05:20.

And if we vote Leave and take back control, I believe that this

:05:21.:05:26.

Thursday could be our country's Independence Day.

:05:27.:05:32.

In the spin room, Leavers reckoned

:05:33.:05:37.

they won on passion, Remainers felt they'd caught

:05:38.:05:39.

The Brexiter campaign was predicated on standing on top of a cliff.

:05:40.:05:51.

They don't know how deep, how steep the cliff is,

:05:52.:05:53.

how large the drop is going to be or how deep the water

:05:54.:05:56.

But they're going to jump all the same.

:05:57.:05:59.

I think it's ridiculous that they can get at the Leave

:06:00.:06:02.

campaign but they've got no solution themselves, either.

:06:03.:06:05.

Even I managed to draw a huge audience!

:06:06.:06:17.

Adam is there. A unique event. About 4 million people tuned into that

:06:18.:06:29.

debate last night. Andrea, what was it like making an argument in front

:06:30.:06:34.

of the 6000 people in the hall, let alone the others? There was a huge

:06:35.:06:39.

amount of noise. That clip did not pick it up. I watched it live full

:06:40.:06:44.

and you could sense there was a lot of noise but it did not stop us

:06:45.:06:49.

understanding you all up on the platform. I'm glad to hear that.

:06:50.:06:55.

With a very serious debate about whether we choose to control our own

:06:56.:06:59.

economy, our own democracy or outsource it to Europe. It is a

:07:00.:07:03.

fundamental one. We have 24 hours to go. Most of the pundits seem to

:07:04.:07:12.

think that Ruth Davidson, the leader of the Scottish Conservatives, was

:07:13.:07:16.

the standout performer. I was very pleased with our performance. I

:07:17.:07:20.

thought we made the case extremely well. Others were disappointed that

:07:21.:07:23.

Ruth challenged me personally, in fact called me a liar, on the

:07:24.:07:28.

subject of the number of rules and regulations that come out of the EU.

:07:29.:07:32.

The House of Commons records show that in 2013 it was 60% of rules and

:07:33.:07:38.

regulations, which is what I said. Not laws. No, I said rules. Were you

:07:39.:07:48.

surprised when she called you a liar? She is the same party as you?

:07:49.:07:56.

It is a blue on blue attack. Were you mistaken or got that wrong? None

:07:57.:08:01.

of that, it was, effectively, you were a liar. It is not what I would

:08:02.:08:08.

have done. I do not call people life of the people make mistakes from

:08:09.:08:11.

time to time. On this, you believe it was not that you were lying but

:08:12.:08:17.

you got the facts right on the number of statutory instruments and

:08:18.:08:23.

regulations relating to the EU. The biggest cheer of the night was for

:08:24.:08:26.

Boris Johnson at the very end. Were you surprised by that? Just a

:08:27.:08:32.

little. The standout performer was Ruth Davidson. Scotland played so

:08:33.:08:41.

well at Wembley. It has been a long time. It was a long time to tell

:08:42.:08:48.

some cold, hard truths to Boris Johnson. I hear what Andrea says

:08:49.:08:52.

that there was an implication to what you said about the number of

:08:53.:08:56.

laws coming from Europe. I know you said rules and regulations that you

:08:57.:09:00.

would like people at home to believe it is the bureaucrats in Brussels

:09:01.:09:04.

and not asked. In the past few years, just 13% of our actual laws

:09:05.:09:11.

even mention that. That is what your everyday voter thinks we mean by

:09:12.:09:17.

legislation. As city minister and now as Energy Minister, all day long

:09:18.:09:20.

I am told that you cannot do this, you cannot do that because of the

:09:21.:09:25.

EU. If you want to make this policy decision we have to go to the EU for

:09:26.:09:29.

state aid clearance which could take up to a year. In the meantime you

:09:30.:09:33.

cannot do anything. All day long I am being told the EU is influencing

:09:34.:09:38.

our ability to make decisions. Look at VAT on fuel bills. I want to talk

:09:39.:09:46.

about last night's bait. Remain put up Siddique Khan and the head of the

:09:47.:09:52.

TUC. Was that a conscious intent to try to galvanise the Labour vote is

:09:53.:09:59.

to map their worries the Labour vote might not come out in numbers to win

:10:00.:10:04.

this. It is very important to have a message which resonates particularly

:10:05.:10:08.

with Labour voters or indeed trade unionists, workers across the

:10:09.:10:12.

country. I find Frances O'Grady quite powerful at the moment. She

:10:13.:10:16.

was saying that when you say red tape, what you mean is workers'

:10:17.:10:21.

rights? That keeps people safe at work. That is incredibly important.

:10:22.:10:27.

She was also keen to bash the bankers and blame them for the crash

:10:28.:10:32.

of 2008. There is a strong case you could do that. The problem is most

:10:33.:10:39.

of the bankers back her side. Most of the Vote Leave campaign has said

:10:40.:10:44.

it is the fault of immigrants. The point I'm trying to make is the

:10:45.:10:47.

blame culture throughout the campaign, we have had lots of people

:10:48.:10:53.

saying it is a result of immigration. What we heard last

:10:54.:10:56.

night was the other side of that. The pressures on housing and schools

:10:57.:11:03.

was caused by the banks. During the debate last night, there was one

:11:04.:11:09.

intervention from the Remains side, from Alan Sugar. He tweeted and we

:11:10.:11:13.

can put it up on the screen. He tweeted...

:11:14.:11:28.

That is from Alan Sugar, a Remains supporter. What you think about

:11:29.:11:39.

that? It is disgusting and I do not want to be associated with these

:11:40.:11:44.

remarks. It is a bit of a surprise, isn't it? A surprise from Alan

:11:45.:11:50.

Sugar. People on both sides would call it out from what it is. Many

:11:51.:11:55.

have done just that. Alan Sugar is now part of the Government. He is

:11:56.:11:59.

the enterprise are for the Government. What do you say about

:12:00.:12:06.

that? Gisela Stuart is one of the most lovely women I have come

:12:07.:12:11.

across. Last night I two sons were therefore that they were looking

:12:12.:12:16.

after her. They are as English as they come. -- her two sons. What

:12:17.:12:32.

about the fact about the Enterprise capital letters are? Those remarks

:12:33.:12:35.

were disgusting and he should take them back. -- Tsar. Gisela has done

:12:36.:12:48.

this country a huge... I am asking whether Alan Sugar should remain

:12:49.:12:56.

Enterprise Tsar. My view is I would certainly be questioning it.

:12:57.:12:59.

Which piece of EU memorabilia history has

:13:00.:13:03.

A) The giant Euro coin, used at the launch

:13:04.:13:08.

B) Margaret Thatcher's Europe jumper worn in the 1975 referendum?

:13:09.:13:11.

C) The pen Douglas Hurd used to sign the Maastricht Treaty?

:13:12.:13:15.

Or D) The first prototype of the EU Flag.

:13:16.:13:20.

At the end of the show, Andrea and Kezia will give

:13:21.:13:22.

So, it is the last full day of campaigning today with politicians

:13:23.:13:35.

making a last-minute push to get their messages out. Experts are

:13:36.:13:40.

predicting it could be extremely close. David Cameron and Boris

:13:41.:13:44.

Johnson and other prominent Leave campaign is trying to drum up as

:13:45.:13:49.

much support as they can. It is not just politicians who are out there.

:13:50.:13:51.

Over a thousand business leaders, including 50 of the UK's FTSE 100,

:13:52.:13:54.

have written a letter in today's Times saying that leaving

:13:55.:13:56.

the European Union would damage the British economy.

:13:57.:14:00.

The signatories, including Virgin's Richard Branson

:14:01.:14:01.

and Sir Charles Dunstone of Carphone Warehouse,

:14:02.:14:04.

say Britain leaving the EU would lead to uncertainty, less

:14:05.:14:08.

However one of the UK's oldest firms, Tate Lyle Sugars,

:14:09.:14:16.

has written to its 800-strong staff saying that leaving the EU

:14:17.:14:20.

would benefit the business, while entrepreneur Sir James Dyson

:14:21.:14:24.

has described the vote as "the last opportunity to regain

:14:25.:14:27.

Meanwhile, an advisor to the Turkish President Recep

:14:28.:14:35.

Erdogan has told the BBC that Turkey feels betrayed by David Cameron,

:14:36.:14:39.

saying that the country feels "taken in" as the Prime Minister had been

:14:40.:14:45.

Turkey's "chief supporter" in its quest for EU membership.

:14:46.:14:50.

As Sadiq Khan last night became the latest member of the Remain

:14:51.:14:53.

campaign to accuse Leave of scaremongering with the "big fat

:14:54.:14:56.

lie" that Turkey would soon join the EU.

:14:57.:15:02.

Joining me now are our political correspondents,

:15:03.:15:04.

Tom is with David Cameron on the Stronger In campaign bus

:15:05.:15:08.

and Ben is with Boris Johnson in Leicestershire.

:15:09.:15:16.

To you first, Tom. What is the Prime Minister doing today? What is the

:15:17.:15:24.

mood with your camp? Welcome. You join us on the convoy. We have quite

:15:25.:15:29.

a few buses. The Stronger In us just ahead of us with the Prime Minister,

:15:30.:15:35.

with Sir John Major and Labour's Harriet Harman and this is a

:15:36.:15:39.

frenetic final push. We were just on a building site with the Prime

:15:40.:15:43.

Minister and we've been herded back onto this media bus and we are off

:15:44.:15:46.

to the next destination. I think the message the Prime Minister has been

:15:47.:15:49.

getting across today and will push even harder is about the economy.

:15:50.:15:53.

We've heard it throughout this campaign and it was no surprise that

:15:54.:15:57.

what he is spending the whole today doing is visiting small businesses.

:15:58.:16:03.

We've just been on a construction site. People are working at the new

:16:04.:16:10.

Honda plant down this road. They hammer that message to the voters.

:16:11.:16:16.

We've had good cop, bad cop. Sir John Major the unlikely sledgehammer

:16:17.:16:19.

during his speech earlier on. He was laying into his opponents in the

:16:20.:16:22.

Leave campaign, accusing them of being the grave-diggers of Britain's

:16:23.:16:26.

prosperity and saying that if there was a vote to leave today, they

:16:27.:16:32.

would have questions answered. Thanks for that. Let's go to bed

:16:33.:16:38.

now, who is with the Vote Leave with Boris Johnson. What are they up to

:16:39.:16:44.

today? Ashley della Zouch in Leicestershire is now quiet again

:16:45.:16:48.

after the Boris Johnson Circus bowled down the high street here. He

:16:49.:16:53.

was here for about half an hour, a pit stop on his tour of England. He

:16:54.:16:58.

began at Billingsgate market in London, then stopped in Essex, then

:16:59.:17:03.

here, and will end the day up in Yorkshire. His message is all about

:17:04.:17:07.

democracy, sovereignty, independence, and it's a message

:17:08.:17:10.

that has cut through to a lot of voters. As we were walking down here

:17:11.:17:15.

a couple of people shouted "Independence Day" at him. He does

:17:16.:17:21.

later the crowd and wing it, unlike many politicians would do and it is

:17:22.:17:25.

a campaign tactic that I think is quite different to the Remain

:17:26.:17:28.

campaign. They will just pitch up in a high street, get out of the bus

:17:29.:17:33.

all the cars and talk to people. This feels like quite a Leave

:17:34.:17:37.

Leeming plays. Their union flags everywhere and the voters I've been

:17:38.:17:41.

speaking to, the majority are convinced Britain needs to be out of

:17:42.:17:45.

the EU. But Boris Johnson was harangued, particularly by one young

:17:46.:17:49.

man who said that if there is an economic downturn, if the prospect

:17:50.:17:52.

of young people are harmed in the future, then Boris Johnson will get

:17:53.:17:57.

the blame. On the whole, though, his reception here was a supporter

:17:58.:18:01.

wanted top Ben, just briefly, and it is a matter of feeling and of

:18:02.:18:05.

instinct, really, with the Vote Leave people, do they feel that they

:18:06.:18:08.

are now struggling obituary game the momentum they had maybe a week ago?

:18:09.:18:15.

Do they feel they are coming from behind? -- to read gain the

:18:16.:18:24.

momentum. I think they feel this is winnable but undoubtedly the

:18:25.:18:26.

momentum that was felt at the beginning of last week was stopped

:18:27.:18:32.

and they are having to read it now. They think this could go either way,

:18:33.:18:37.

they feel it is exceptionally tight, that it is about turnout. My hunch

:18:38.:18:42.

having talked to people here is that there are still a lot of undecided

:18:43.:18:46.

voters. I've been speaking to people in shops, walking around the

:18:47.:18:49.

streets, who say they've been looking at these competing

:18:50.:18:51.

arguments, listening to them for weeks, confused by some of them, not

:18:52.:18:56.

sure which way to go, and it will be a hunch they have when they get into

:18:57.:19:00.

the polling booth tomorrow that will determine what box they take and I

:19:01.:19:04.

think it's that... There appears to be huge number of undecided voters,

:19:05.:19:08.

still, that make both campaigns realise this is very unpredictable,

:19:09.:19:12.

very tight, too close for either to call with any confidence. Thank you

:19:13.:19:18.

very much for that. Andrea Leadsom, there are clearly business people

:19:19.:19:22.

who are on your side of the argument and renamed some of them in our

:19:23.:19:25.

introduction but it is only fair to say that the majority of major

:19:26.:19:30.

businesses in this country are for a vote to remain, aren't they? Yes,

:19:31.:19:35.

they are and, of course, what we're talking about here is the senior

:19:36.:19:40.

chief executive officers of big businesses. And let's be clear that

:19:41.:19:46.

when Stuart Rose, who chairs the Stronger In campaign, appeared

:19:47.:19:48.

before the Treasury committee to make the case for remain in, he

:19:49.:19:53.

said, "The trouble with leaving is that it will mean a pay rise for

:19:54.:19:59.

British workers, wages will go up for British workers," and, of

:20:00.:20:02.

course, the point is that people who run big FTSE 100 countries do not

:20:03.:20:06.

have to face the struggle against wages going down and for a good

:20:07.:20:10.

school plays, for a doctor's appointment. They don't have the

:20:11.:20:14.

same challenges as the people in this campaign. But it is more than

:20:15.:20:20.

just the FTSE 100. Mainly the FTSE 100 have operations overseas anyway

:20:21.:20:26.

so they are not necessarily were presented over British business

:20:27.:20:30.

here. But 1285 business leaders, a lot more than the FTSE 100, they

:20:31.:20:36.

employ 1.75 million people, they are backing Remain. They are not all fat

:20:37.:20:41.

cats. Small and medium enterprises make up 99% of the businesses in the

:20:42.:20:47.

United Kingdom and there are many surveys that show that 75% of them

:20:48.:20:54.

believe that the UK should take back responsibility for negotiating free

:20:55.:20:57.

trade, something that the EU has been disastrously bad at, and a

:20:58.:21:03.

majority of small businesses on a broad scope, not on CBI numbers or

:21:04.:21:08.

Federation of Small Businesses numbers, but actually the small

:21:09.:21:11.

businesses of this country, they believe we will be better off or not

:21:12.:21:15.

worse off if we leave the European Union and they, the small and medium

:21:16.:21:20.

enterprises, employ 60 million people in this country, so they are

:21:21.:21:23.

the entrepreneurs, the wealth creators, the people creating jobs.

:21:24.:21:26.

It is not clear that the majority of them want to leave. I agree that

:21:27.:21:30.

there is a high percentage that want to stay but the British Chambers of

:21:31.:21:34.

Commerce, there is no sign there was a majority. The Remain team focused

:21:35.:21:38.

on the economy last night and one of the big arguments has been, what

:21:39.:21:41.

would our trading relationship be with Europe if we were to come out

:21:42.:21:45.

of the EU, on what terms and conditions? The Remain people have

:21:46.:21:49.

said they may not be added to just was, compared to what we have now,

:21:50.:21:53.

but we learned today that the head of the German CBI, the Federation of

:21:54.:21:57.

German industries, the equivalent of the CBI, has told the BBC that

:21:58.:22:02.

erecting any post Brexit trade barriers would be, quote, very, very

:22:03.:22:07.

foolish, and that what the German industry would want is a trade

:22:08.:22:11.

regime that allows current trade to continue as it is. That's a powerful

:22:12.:22:16.

lobby in Germany, as you will note it talk To continue as it is means

:22:17.:22:19.

that there is a set of conditions that comes with that, for example

:22:20.:22:22.

the free movement of people, which is what Andrea is trying to stop in

:22:23.:22:26.

many senses. The economic argument is absolutely unanswerable. It is

:22:27.:22:31.

compelling for why we should remain part of the EU, which is why the

:22:32.:22:35.

Leave campaign have spent the last week, and was then the next few

:22:36.:22:38.

hours, trying to get the debate back on issues of immigration. I want to

:22:39.:22:42.

stick with trade because this would suggest, and you will know the

:22:43.:22:50.

German industry Federation is much more powerful with the Christian

:22:51.:22:53.

Democrat government than the CBI is with this Tory government, and there

:22:54.:22:57.

you have the most powerful voice saying he would like trade, even if

:22:58.:23:00.

Britain leaves, to continue on broadly the same terms. So that

:23:01.:23:05.

would suggest that a lot of what your side has been saying may not

:23:06.:23:09.

actually be true, that there could be a big constituency in Germany

:23:10.:23:13.

that would like us, even if we come out, to continue trading on the same

:23:14.:23:18.

basis. That's a very powerful boys but it is yet again just one of the

:23:19.:23:22.

27 other nations of Europe that would have a view on this particular

:23:23.:23:27.

issue. -- very powerful voice. It is for the Leave campaign to prosecute

:23:28.:23:32.

the case here, much as it was the case for the camera crew yes

:23:33.:23:35.

campaign in the Scottish referendum to make the case for change and

:23:36.:23:38.

there is so much risk associated with what Andrea is arguing. Wrist

:23:39.:23:42.

jobs, the economy, to works' writes. It is just not worth it. Vote Leave

:23:43.:23:48.

is distributing leaflets that state on Turkey that it is, quote, "Set to

:23:49.:23:55.

join the EU". It is not set to join the EU, is it? Well, our

:23:56.:23:59.

government's policy is for Turkish accession. We in this country will

:24:00.:24:05.

be paying up to ?2 billion between now and 2020 to contribute to the

:24:06.:24:09.

preparations that those five accession countries to be able to

:24:10.:24:13.

accede to the EU. And the European Commission, just in recent weeks,

:24:14.:24:16.

has been saying they are going to speed up the access and

:24:17.:24:21.

preparations, so... But even so, it is not set to join tiptop so far it

:24:22.:24:26.

has passed one of the 35 hurdles it has to past. I understand that it

:24:27.:24:32.

is... And rouble come on to whether Mr Cameron has been entirely honest

:24:33.:24:35.

with us on this matter. I personally understand it is British policy that

:24:36.:24:41.

the Turkish or join but if I'm set to do something, I'm about to do it

:24:42.:24:44.

and we know that even with British support for joining, Turkey is not

:24:45.:24:51.

set to join. So what we know is that the European Union, the eurozone, is

:24:52.:24:56.

looking to do a transaction with Turkey that an ex--- in exchange for

:24:57.:25:01.

sending migrants back to Turkey, which I've no idea if that is even

:25:02.:25:04.

going to be legal, that Turkish citizens could get free movement in

:25:05.:25:08.

the Schengen area, which doesn't include the UK, but there are

:25:09.:25:11.

discussions through our diplomatic channels about giving special

:25:12.:25:15.

passport holders in Turkey, 1.5 million of them, free movement of

:25:16.:25:20.

the UK. Hold on, there has been a proposal, a suggestion, from the

:25:21.:25:31.

deputy head of nation in Ankara. Are you saying that person counts for

:25:32.:25:35.

nothing? No, I'm not, I'm saying that person, and it is a chic, does

:25:36.:25:39.

not determine British Government policy on this. It was an idea

:25:40.:25:44.

floated by a diplomat. Roll but can we be clear? This referendum is not

:25:45.:25:47.

for the couple of years, so what time frame would be reasonable? If

:25:48.:25:50.

this referendum is for a generation, which is what we understand it to

:25:51.:25:58.

be, it has been 43 years since we last had a referendum on this

:25:59.:26:01.

subject. Are you saying it is not going to happen in 43 years? I

:26:02.:26:05.

didn't say that to you. I put the proposition to you, it is not set to

:26:06.:26:10.

join. That terminology is very important because as you've just

:26:11.:26:17.

said, the first chapter is being dealt with. We British taxpayers...

:26:18.:26:22.

The chapters were opened in 1987! They've only made one of 35. The EU

:26:23.:26:28.

repeat commission is speeding up their accession plans. -- the

:26:29.:26:32.

European Commission. Isn't it interesting how when the EU gets in

:26:33.:26:36.

a problem, as it has with migration, anything can happen? If it suits the

:26:37.:26:41.

eurozone to deal with their migration crisis by allowing faster

:26:42.:26:45.

Turkish accession, that is what they will do. They've made that very

:26:46.:26:50.

clear. There's a problem. Leave may well be wrong that Turkey is quote

:26:51.:26:55.

set to join", in other words it could be imminent by 2020, even by

:26:56.:27:01.

2025, but there's a problem for the Remain people here and it's to do

:27:02.:27:04.

with trusting the political elite, because Mr Cameron has said one

:27:05.:27:10.

thing to the Turkish people - in 2010, he pledged to fight for their

:27:11.:27:13.

membership, he was going to be the bridge between Ankara and the EU.

:27:14.:27:18.

We've even heard from a Turkish diplomat on Newsnight last night,

:27:19.:27:22.

"We thought Mr Cameron was our chief supporter in our quest for EU

:27:23.:27:26.

membership. We are really flabbergasted he is now talking

:27:27.:27:31.

about the year 3000". This goes to the heart of trusting the people who

:27:32.:27:35.

govern us, doesn't it? I think that is a fair point it I think there is

:27:36.:27:38.

a much more fundamental question here, which is how we as the

:27:39.:27:42.

political class talk immigration in the round. Stick to Turkey. Are

:27:43.:27:51.

that's exacting what I'm doing. They're up potentially 1.2 million

:27:52.:27:54.

people in Turkey on their way to our borders now, they say, and that is a

:27:55.:27:57.

tremendous thing for us all to consider and worry about but we need

:27:58.:28:01.

to take a step back and say, EU migrants coming back to the United

:28:02.:28:06.

Kingdom make a vibrant contribution. I want you to stick with Turkey.

:28:07.:28:09.

There has been a tendency throughout this campaign on both sides, you ask

:28:10.:28:13.

a question and you generalise it to graduate Morkel to blunt. Is at the

:28:14.:28:17.

Labour Party's position that Turkey should join the EU? We are of the

:28:18.:28:22.

opinion that the EU should be expanding. There are five accession

:28:23.:28:27.

countries. As you said, chapter one of 35... But are you in favour of

:28:28.:28:32.

Turkey joining the EU? I'm a passionate, proud pro-European

:28:33.:28:35.

person and I believe in unity across Europe. So you are in favour of

:28:36.:28:41.

Turkey joining the EU? I don't fear greater EU migration in the way that

:28:42.:28:45.

Andrea does. Why can't you discover simple yes or no? Do you support

:28:46.:28:50.

Turkey's membership of the EU? Right now no because I don't believe they

:28:51.:28:55.

would pass the human rights test. 35 chapters, many of the most difficult

:28:56.:28:59.

ones are yet to be resolved. I don't think anyone can feasibly save the

:29:00.:29:03.

case has been made at this time. You are a supporter? You would want to

:29:04.:29:08.

help? I am a supporter of the EU... I have one final question for you

:29:09.:29:11.

because you said that politicians should be honest about migration.

:29:12.:29:16.

When Jeremy Corbyn told the BBC on Sunday morning that you could have

:29:17.:29:19.

no upper limit on migration if you have free movement, which is what we

:29:20.:29:24.

have in the EU, that was honest, wasn't it? Yes. There could be no

:29:25.:29:30.

upper limit on migration? Yes, and we should be honest about the value

:29:31.:29:34.

of EU migration to our country. No upper limit? I just want to clarify,

:29:35.:29:41.

no upper limit. What Jeremy Corbyn said on Sunday I believe is right.

:29:42.:29:48.

So even if it was 500,000 net, 600,000 net, instead of the current

:29:49.:29:51.

300, there would be no upper limit? Leave there are conditions tied to

:29:52.:29:54.

that in terms of the benefits people are entitled to. The principle of

:29:55.:30:00.

it, as articulated by Jeremy Corbyn, I believe to be right it It is easy

:30:01.:30:04.

for you to say that because almost no migrants go to Scotland. 20% of

:30:05.:30:14.

those live in the city that I'm proud to represent it that's why I

:30:15.:30:18.

am able to say to you... It is easy for you to say because hardly any

:30:19.:30:23.

migrants go to Scotland. None of the 260,000 net that came to Britain in

:30:24.:30:28.

2014, how many went to Scotland? I don't have that figure. 8000 out of

:30:29.:30:34.

two or 60,000. Why do so migrants to Scotland?

:30:35.:30:41.

Why do most of them go? I would argue possibly London where there is

:30:42.:30:48.

a very positive attitude. I do not think it is about geography.

:30:49.:30:56.

Now, could the weather swing the vote tomorrow?

:30:57.:30:58.

Popular belief is that rain keeps voters away but what will conditions

:30:59.:31:01.

be like when polls are open between 7am and 10pm tomorrow?

:31:02.:31:03.

Will the sun be shining in Kezia Dugdale's Edinburgh

:31:04.:31:06.

or Andrea Leadsom's South Northamptonshire?

:31:07.:31:07.

With polls so close, here's the BBC's Stav Danaos

:31:08.:31:09.

with the all-important weather forecast.

:31:10.:31:14.

Much of the country will start off on a fine, dry, bright

:31:15.:31:18.

note on Thursday morning but the south-east corner will start

:31:19.:31:21.

off with thunderstorms and heavy showers, the risk of some local

:31:22.:31:23.

flooding from these through the morning period.

:31:24.:31:25.

But the good news is, they will move away.

:31:26.:31:27.

Things will dry up across the south-east.

:31:28.:31:29.

Actually quite a good-looking afternoon for many.

:31:30.:31:31.

Showers across the north-west corner, but a return to some

:31:32.:31:33.

showers and thunderstorms across the south-east corner as it

:31:34.:31:35.

becomes very warm and humid through the afternoon,

:31:36.:31:37.

with temperatures reaching 24, 25 Celsius.

:31:38.:31:39.

A bit more detail for southern parts of Northamptonshire,

:31:40.:31:42.

we'll see early showers clearing away, with some dry spells

:31:43.:31:46.

More showers, potentially some thunderstorms,

:31:47.:32:02.

could develop in towards the evening period.

:32:03.:32:04.

Further north, for much of Scotland it will be dry with some sunshine.

:32:05.:32:07.

Very pleasant conditions there in Edinburgh, with 19 or 20

:32:08.:32:09.

Celsius and some good spells of sunshine through the day.

:32:10.:32:12.

Maybe an evening shower will move in from the south-west.

:32:13.:32:14.

So to recap for Thursday, it's going to be quite a warm day

:32:15.:32:17.

generally, up and down the UK, temperatures

:32:18.:32:19.

The highest temperatures across the south-east,

:32:20.:32:22.

where we are likely to see more thunderstorms later on in the day.

:32:23.:32:30.

And for those eagle-eyed political anoraks among you,

:32:31.:32:36.

you'll realise that those were the constituency

:32:37.:32:38.

locations of prominent Remain and Leave campaigners,

:32:39.:32:40.

David Cameron, Jeremy Corbyn, George Osborne, Michael Gove

:32:41.:32:41.

Now, Professor John Curtice joins us now from the studio of tomorrow

:32:42.:32:46.

night's referendum programme at BBC Elstree.

:32:47.:32:53.

Does the weather make a difference to turn out? Very rarely. There have

:32:54.:33:02.

been occasions with past general elections where one part of the

:33:03.:33:05.

country has received the usual British rain and another part have

:33:06.:33:10.

had a glimmer of sunshine but no perceptible impact on the level of

:33:11.:33:14.

turnout. Unless the thunderstorms are actually disruptive and make it

:33:15.:33:17.

difficult for people to get to a polling station, it is unlikely to

:33:18.:33:23.

make much difference. When we spoke on this show last week, you said

:33:24.:33:28.

that Remained were no longer favourites to win. There was a

:33:29.:33:33.

serious possibility that the country would vote leave. Has Tsar grabbed

:33:34.:33:46.

back some of the ground? -- has Remain grabbed back some of the

:33:47.:33:52.

ground? It has grabbed back some of the ground but not all. What we may

:33:53.:33:56.

need to worry about now is so far there is not any clear evidence that

:33:57.:34:01.

the swing back to Remain because of the perceptions of risk that many

:34:02.:34:05.

people were assuming would begin to be evident in the polls conducted in

:34:06.:34:09.

the last week the campaign, so far at least that wingback is not in

:34:10.:34:14.

evidence. So, last week we had the internet polls having the Leeds side

:34:15.:34:32.

ahead. -- the Leave side ahead. The telephone poles last week it felt to

:34:33.:34:42.

50/ 50. Now it is 51/49 in favour of Remain. Not as much division as

:34:43.:34:46.

there was. If you split the difference between them, it is 50/

:34:47.:34:56.

50. What about the pollsters who are undecided? What is the significance

:34:57.:35:00.

or lack of significance about those who are undecided? That includes

:35:01.:35:06.

people who don't care. There will be a disproportionate number of people

:35:07.:35:12.

who will not bother to vote. Beyond that, it looks as though they are

:35:13.:35:21.

rather more likely to vote Remain. Maybe in the order of 3/ two. Quite

:35:22.:35:25.

a few of the opinion polls are factoring in these folk into their

:35:26.:35:29.

headline estimates. Some opinion polls, once the folk have been

:35:30.:35:33.

factored in, the numbers who do not know is minimal. One final thing. I

:35:34.:35:42.

have been asked a number of times, there will be no Exeter pole

:35:43.:35:46.

tomorrow night when the BBC goes live on air. -- exit poll. That was

:35:47.:35:59.

such a watershed moment in the general election last year, people

:36:00.:36:02.

will not forget that, particularly Paddy Ashdown for Dubya still has

:36:03.:36:12.

not eaten his hat. There will not be an exit poll. Why not? We must go

:36:13.:36:19.

wherever possible to the same polling stations we went to five

:36:20.:36:24.

years previously that we know from the previous exit poll how those

:36:25.:36:27.

places have voted. We now know how they have voted this year. The

:36:28.:36:32.

methodology of the exit poll is about trying to estimate the change

:36:33.:36:35.

in party support across the country on the base of that information. We

:36:36.:36:39.

go down that route because I might most countries who do not have

:36:40.:36:47.

precinct level characters. It is difficult to be sure if any polling

:36:48.:36:53.

stations are representative of the country. Now there is no last time.

:36:54.:36:59.

At least it was over 40 years ago and therefore irrelevant. We could

:37:00.:37:03.

not replicate the methodology which is we will look at the results this

:37:04.:37:07.

time and look what happened last time and use that information. There

:37:08.:37:11.

is only a this time of that that means you are dependent on getting

:37:12.:37:14.

the right sample of polling stations and we could not be confident in

:37:15.:37:20.

doing that. Thank you for explaining that. Good luck tomorrow night. I

:37:21.:37:24.

hope you will still be awake when I come on out on Friday morning. We

:37:25.:37:28.

should probably know all the results by then. Y.

:37:29.:37:46.

Here's our Ellie with a guide to everything you need to know.

:37:47.:37:49.

It's the moment we've all been waiting for.

:37:50.:37:52.

The results will be counted by local authority areas.

:37:53.:38:00.

There are 382 counting areas in total.

:38:01.:38:04.

Unlike a general election, there is no exit poll.

:38:05.:38:08.

That's because, put simply, it's virtually impossible

:38:09.:38:09.

The formal result isn't likely to be announced until 7am at the earliest

:38:10.:38:15.

but there are certain things to look out for overnight,

:38:16.:38:18.

and who better to ask about what to expect than the people

:38:19.:38:21.

who've been busy practising what to expect?

:38:22.:38:27.

Jeremy, hello, fancy seeing you here.

:38:28.:38:29.

Ellie, in our Virtual Downing Street, how about that?

:38:30.:38:31.

Can you walk me through what is going to happen on the night?

:38:32.:38:35.

Come to this end because the first results we think will be classically

:38:36.:38:38.

Sunderland, Newcastle, so we're going to start to see them

:38:39.:38:41.

coming in at the end he and we have blue for Leave and

:38:42.:38:44.

They will be building a path down Downing Street.

:38:45.:38:47.

2am we think Oxford, a very Remainy kind of a place,

:38:48.:38:50.

so we'll see whether they come in for Remain.

:38:51.:38:52.

And then by 3am, interestingly, the City of Durham,

:38:53.:38:54.

Interesting to see which way the wind is blowing there.

:38:55.:38:58.

And then the big cities, the big numbers, Birmingham,

:38:59.:39:00.

By 6am, Liverpool, we think, and then a result.

:39:01.:39:05.

There is a dotted line along the floor by Number Ten,

:39:06.:39:08.

which we'll put down there, which will be crossing the line.

:39:09.:39:10.

I'm going to leave you to it because it is blowing my mind!

:39:11.:39:18.

Luckily there are plenty of grapevines on this programme

:39:19.:39:20.

So, John, for those poor people who have to go to work on Friday,

:39:21.:39:26.

up early or should they just stay up late and then hope

:39:27.:39:31.

Well, I think probably the best advice is, if you're the kind

:39:32.:39:35.

of person who is capable of going to bed at seven or eight

:39:36.:39:38.

in the evening, go and do that, set your alarm for no later

:39:39.:39:41.

than about two o'clock and then, as a result, almost undoubtedly,

:39:42.:39:44.

you'll be there as the results begin to kick in.

:39:45.:39:48.

Now, it may be true that if the result is very close,

:39:49.:39:51.

you may still not find out the final result until shortly before you have

:39:52.:39:55.

to go to work but if, on the other hand, it's pretty clear

:39:56.:39:58.

who is going to win, probably by not long after three

:39:59.:40:01.

o'clock, you'll be able to go back to bed and get

:40:02.:40:04.

Besides, there's far too much calculating to be done.

:40:05.:40:10.

If you look at the electorate, look at the actual turnout that's

:40:11.:40:12.

reported, and you then see whether the numbers within that

:40:13.:40:16.

turnout have got to a point where one side has a lead

:40:17.:40:20.

that cannot be overtaken by the other, you understand?

:40:21.:40:28.

Mind you, if it was a dead heat, you'd be waiting

:40:29.:40:32.

I don't know what the odds are but of course it could happen.

:40:33.:40:39.

The results programme will be on until 9am.

:40:40.:40:44.

The only thing that is certain in this referendum -

:40:45.:40:47.

Kezia Dugdale, there are 32 accounting areas in Scotland. Mark

:40:48.:41:07.

our hard for us. What area should we look for in Scotland when results

:41:08.:41:10.

come which will be a good result for you, which would suggest you will

:41:11.:41:17.

win? Everyone assumes Edinburgh will be very strongly Remain. Bookies

:41:18.:41:22.

have stopped taking books. They think that the city will have the

:41:23.:41:26.

largest Remain in the United Kingdom. More interesting,

:41:27.:41:29.

Aberdeenshire. There is larger farming. And fishing. They have been

:41:30.:41:39.

quite hostile. The Scottish Fishing Federation has been quite neutral.

:41:40.:41:44.

They do not like the regulation but they like the free trade. On the

:41:45.:41:49.

Scottish referendum, I think the borders were the first area to

:41:50.:41:52.

declare. We always knew they would vote for the union but they did so

:41:53.:41:57.

in such huge numbers that we began to think, maybe something is

:41:58.:42:00.

happening here tonight. What would you be looking for that would guide

:42:01.:42:06.

you? I am not an expert in this area at all. I generally think this is

:42:07.:42:13.

close. People who want us to leave the EU and take back control have a

:42:14.:42:19.

greater passion for it. Do you think they're more likely to turn out?

:42:20.:42:25.

That will be my hope. South Northamptonshire visual

:42:26.:42:30.

constituency. There are 382 accounting authorities altogether

:42:31.:42:34.

across the United Kingdom. They have been listed on how likely they are

:42:35.:42:38.

to vote to leave or remain. Where is South Northamptonshire? It used to

:42:39.:42:45.

be about 50/50 early on. My experience of public debates and so

:42:46.:42:48.

one has been overwhelmingly voting to leave. Your experience would seem

:42:49.:42:57.

to be right. John has put your area is 134th most likely to leave which

:42:58.:43:02.

means you are in the top 50% to leave. The answer to Lothian is

:43:03.:43:10.

pretty easy, isn't it? I would hope is a strong Remain. It is coming in

:43:11.:43:22.

at 322 out of 382, the top 15% or so are people who will vote to remain

:43:23.:43:26.

in. I will be in Glasgow on the night. An area where there are so

:43:27.:43:32.

many migrants is voting to remain. We were talking about statistics.

:43:33.:43:36.

20% of EU migrants in Scotland live in the Edinburgh area. That includes

:43:37.:43:45.

students, of which there are a lot. Where will you be on the night? I

:43:46.:43:51.

will be in South Northamptonshire with a megaphone tomorrow and then

:43:52.:43:53.

coming back to London tomorrow night. And a soapbox.

:43:54.:44:08.

Soon all the discussion and debate will be over and we'll know

:44:09.:44:11.

It seems as if we've been talking about it forever but the official

:44:12.:44:15.

campaign only started just over two months ago.

:44:16.:44:17.

Can you remember what happened in those two months though -

:44:18.:44:20.

here's our look at the highs and lows of the campaign.

:44:21.:44:22.

Three years ago, I committed to the British people that

:44:23.:44:25.

I would renegotiate our position in the European Union and hold

:44:26.:44:27.

I'm calling on behalf of the Vote Leave campaign.

:44:28.:44:32.

The European Union, many warts and all, has proved itself to be

:44:33.:44:38.

This is this morning's Sun headline -

:44:39.:44:40.

I think it is wrong that money that should be spent on priorities

:44:41.:44:49.

like the NHS is being spent on euro propaganda.

:44:50.:44:54.

A vote to leave the European Union could have material

:44:55.:44:56.

The shock to our economy after leaving Europe would tip

:44:57.:45:01.

When I heard that, I did think of Pinocchio and the nose

:45:02.:45:06.

Our focus is in negotiating with a big bloc of the European Union

:45:07.:45:11.

to get a trade agreement done and the UK is going to be

:45:12.:45:14.

Well, we can listen to the President of America if we choose to.

:45:15.:45:22.

The last time we did, it was George W Bush telling us

:45:23.:45:25.

You cannot sell bananas in bunches of more than two or three bananas.

:45:26.:45:31.

I think the strain of the campaign is beginning to tell on him.

:45:32.:45:34.

The serried rows of white headstones in lovingly tended war cemeteries

:45:35.:45:43.

stand silent testimony to the price that this country has paid to help

:45:44.:45:48.

Migration Watch forecasts net migration will exceed 250,000

:45:49.:45:55.

I think their campaign is verging on the squalid.

:45:56.:46:02.

I am staggered that Boris Johnson is standing here tonight,

:46:03.:46:06.

still defending this ?350 million a week...

:46:07.:46:10.

The European Union just isn't working any more.

:46:11.:46:22.

There's a long way to go but we're in with a shout.

:46:23.:46:25.

Campaigning for the referendum has been suspended and there's been

:46:26.:46:27.

a vigil for Jo Cox at Westminster tonight.

:46:28.:46:33.

And you can't win, you can't fight, if you're not in the room.

:46:34.:46:41.

This Thursday can be our country's Independence Day.

:46:42.:46:45.

Your campaign hasn't been Project Fear, it's been Project Hate

:46:46.:46:48.

There's nothing patriotic about putting people's jobs at risk.

:46:49.:46:54.

From the SSE Arena Wembley, good night from all of us.

:46:55.:47:10.

So there we go, that might bring back some memories of this

:47:11.:47:15.

referendum campaign. When this campaign started there were many

:47:16.:47:18.

people who said, "I'm not that interested, turnout will be low, why

:47:19.:47:23.

are we bothering to have it? It's essentially blue on blue arguments,

:47:24.:47:28.

the Tories are divided on this, so let's have a referendum, the way

:47:29.:47:36.

Labour was divided in 75 and had a referendum". It's actually turned

:47:37.:47:39.

out to be a robust campaign. Yes, and it has become more lively in the

:47:40.:47:43.

closing days, without question. It definitely hasn't had that same

:47:44.:47:47.

atmosphere that the referendum campaign did Buddha think we'll see

:47:48.:47:50.

the same novels of turnout tomorrow. I think that will be quite

:47:51.:47:55.

interesting but there are parallels between the two referendums with

:47:56.:47:59.

interventions from the IMF to Obama to David Beckham. You can almost

:48:00.:48:02.

predict what's going to happen. There have been similarities but the

:48:03.:48:05.

turnout in the Scottish referendum was unique. 85%, yes, and a very

:48:06.:48:10.

compelling result as a consequence of that. You felt really that the

:48:11.:48:15.

people had spoken. I hope we do get a strong turnout tomorrow because I

:48:16.:48:17.

don't want to go through this again, I don't think many people do. We've

:48:18.:48:22.

got but this issue to bed and get back normal politics. When it

:48:23.:48:25.

started, the turnout in the last general election was 60s and the

:48:26.:48:29.

scent and I wondered whether the turnout tomorrow would be in the

:48:30.:48:32.

early 60s but after this campaign, it may be higher. It may be more

:48:33.:48:35.

than the turnout in the general election. This is an issue about who

:48:36.:48:41.

governs you. It is absolutely profound. It has much more of an

:48:42.:48:44.

impact on our children and grandchildren's future than the

:48:45.:48:50.

general election. This is a generation and remaining is an

:48:51.:48:52.

incredibly risky option so people do need to weigh this up and see what

:48:53.:48:57.

works for them. You still get these little bit in! I ask for a little

:48:58.:49:02.

bit of analysis but you get the push of their site. -- side.

:49:03.:49:08.

We're joined now from College Green by the political editor

:49:09.:49:10.

of the Guardian, Anushka Asthana, and James Kirkup

:49:11.:49:12.

Anushka Asthana, give me your impressions. What is your main

:49:13.:49:19.

takeaway from it? That it got a lot messier than anyone expected it to

:49:20.:49:23.

become. I don't think when David Cameron signed up for this he

:49:24.:49:27.

expected it to be quite as it was. There were some panicked moments,

:49:28.:49:31.

particularly last week, for the Stronger In camp and for Downing

:49:32.:49:35.

Street. I think they thought first of all, might they lose it? And

:49:36.:49:38.

secondly, did he really expect to be on the opposite side to Michael Gove

:49:39.:49:42.

and Boris Johnson in such a vocal way? I have to say, we saw the Prime

:49:43.:49:46.

Minister yesterday and I felt there was more confidence in the room.

:49:47.:49:49.

They clearly think that it is swinging their way. James, what a

:49:50.:49:55.

Mishra says is right, isn't it, that when David Cameron started in this

:49:56.:49:58.

process, he never thought on the eve of the campaign, it would be too

:49:59.:50:03.

close to call,, that he didn't have a decent lead. You never thought

:50:04.:50:07.

he'd be fighting it without Boris Johnson and Michael Gove. This has

:50:08.:50:10.

been a much tougher ex-political exercise for him and he ever

:50:11.:50:19.

thought. That's absolutely true. Even when it became clear that there

:50:20.:50:24.

were an awful lot more Conservatives on the other side than he realised,

:50:25.:50:27.

I think some of the reactions on both sides have surprised everybody

:50:28.:50:33.

in the party. The outstanding moment for me so far was the Tory backbench

:50:34.:50:38.

response to George Osborne's exit budget last week. To have 60 plus

:50:39.:50:47.

Tory MPs publicly - this is the thing, publicly - saying, "We will

:50:48.:50:54.

not let you do this, George". We all knew long before that a lot of

:50:55.:50:57.

Tories don't like George Osborne and are quite unfriendly towards him but

:50:58.:51:02.

to do that publicly is... It crosses a very big line. I don't think

:51:03.:51:07.

anybody, even the most as a mystic Tory, expected to get to their in

:51:08.:51:12.

this campaign. Anushka, if we vote to leave, clearly it is a sea

:51:13.:51:16.

change, a watershed in British politics, British political life.

:51:17.:51:19.

But would I be right in thinking that even if we vote to remain and

:51:20.:51:23.

we vote to remain by perhaps just a little bit that, actually, there's a

:51:24.:51:27.

new story starts on Friday morning that this isn't over yet? I think

:51:28.:51:33.

that David Cameron and George Osborne, as James was saying, have

:51:34.:51:37.

tied themselves very, very closely to this remain campaign and they

:51:38.:51:40.

have gone in very hard. That punishment budget that he was

:51:41.:51:44.

talking about has infuriated backbenchers. Other things, too, the

:51:45.:51:49.

?9 million on the leaflet, one MP telling me he was incandescent about

:51:50.:51:53.

that. In some ways, the most dangerous outcome for David Cameron

:51:54.:51:57.

on a personal level could be a very narrow Remain victory because

:51:58.:52:00.

there's going to be a lot of people who are very, very upset about his

:52:01.:52:04.

tactics. The question will be, can enough of them come forward to try

:52:05.:52:08.

to actually destabilise his leadership? I think it will be very

:52:09.:52:12.

difficult for him to pull the party together. That said, some people say

:52:13.:52:16.

the Conservatives come together very quickly when they need to, which I

:52:17.:52:20.

think normal people probably find quite difficult because politicians

:52:21.:52:24.

seem to be able to do this. If I'd had a massive row with my friend for

:52:25.:52:27.

the past couple of weeks, I think I'd be a bit grumpy about it. I know

:52:28.:52:33.

the feeling, I'm exactly the same! Finally to you, James, a proposition

:52:34.:52:36.

to you for a quick reaction. Regardless of what the Prime

:52:37.:52:39.

Minister is saying at the moment, if it is vote to leave, the primaries

:52:40.:52:43.

and the Chancellor will be certainly gone by the summer. It -- if it is

:52:44.:52:50.

vote to remain by the small amount, they don't go straightaway but they

:52:51.:52:53.

are both still the walking wounded, are they not? He said before the

:52:54.:52:57.

election last year that he wasn't going to serve beyond the end of

:52:58.:53:00.

this Parliament and that means he cannot go on. The chances are he'll

:53:01.:53:06.

be gone by 2018 regardless of how this works out. I think it's quite

:53:07.:53:10.

likely, as Anushka said, if we get that narrow vote it is perfectly

:53:11.:53:13.

possible, given the strength of feeling in the party, given the

:53:14.:53:16.

number of Tories who Frankie will not be happy with a remain Bob wrote

:53:17.:53:22.

because they will feel the campaign was conducted unfairly and almost

:53:23.:53:27.

illegitimately, I think that will stoke up potentially such anger in

:53:28.:53:31.

the Tory party that if by the end of this year, even, you see David

:53:32.:53:36.

Cameron making a statement saying, "I'm now beginning the process of my

:53:37.:53:40.

retirement," it will not be a great surprise. We may well see some

:53:41.:53:44.

statement on the beginning of the end before the year is out. We shall

:53:45.:53:49.

see to it will for now. Now. Hope to see you both on the morning after

:53:50.:53:50.

the night before. So how does getting the vote out

:53:51.:54:01.

differ from the more usual general Well, referenda are a more common

:54:02.:54:04.

affair in the United States - a lot of states have bladder sites

:54:05.:54:16.

and they determine all sorts of things.

:54:17.:54:20.

We are joined now by the American referendum

:54:21.:54:22.

Powers are different? Because in an election, you got the party machines

:54:23.:54:31.

that get the vote out? How does that work in a referendum? Well, first of

:54:32.:54:34.

all thank you for having me back on your show. The first thing to talk

:54:35.:54:37.

about is, what is the strategy to get out the vote in the next 24

:54:38.:54:42.

hours before the election, and the strategy right now in the referendum

:54:43.:54:47.

campaign has to be, how are we going to get our supporters out to vote?

:54:48.:54:54.

And the time for persuasion is over. It's now a logistical matter? It is

:54:55.:54:59.

over. People are starting to make their mind up with every minute that

:55:00.:55:04.

goes by as we get closer and closer. How do you get the vote out? There's

:55:05.:55:10.

a couple of things. Understanding what the strategy is, first of all,

:55:11.:55:14.

and then the next part is that one of the ways of getting the blood of

:55:15.:55:18.

out, there are a number of areas that I'm sure that the Remain site

:55:19.:55:21.

and the Leave side are spending a lot of their human resources and

:55:22.:55:25.

money on. One has to be canvassing. You've got to get groups of people

:55:26.:55:30.

together, volunteers, and literally go out and talk to your supporters

:55:31.:55:43.

with a very soft sell. It has to be, here is the address of your polling

:55:44.:55:46.

station - please go out and vote tomorrow. And maybe one message

:55:47.:55:50.

about what you are trying to to give it on your position. You are not

:55:51.:55:53.

going to meet tens of millions of people with that so again, I

:55:54.:55:58.

suspect, and no, actually, that both the Remain and the Leave have their

:55:59.:56:02.

phone banks cranking. They should absolutely be calling everybody that

:56:03.:56:06.

is on their IDE list as already being supporters. To galvanise them

:56:07.:56:12.

to come out? At this point, forget about the people who are headed on

:56:13.:56:16.

the other direction or are even on the persuasion listed top your job

:56:17.:56:19.

is one thing, get them out through canvassing and through phones. And

:56:20.:56:23.

the final pieces, the technology that is out there is absolutely

:56:24.:56:29.

wonderful. With the list that people have, Leave.EU and Vote Leave Bob,

:56:30.:56:35.

and the Remain site, I suggest they have got hundreds of thousands of

:56:36.:56:39.

people on their database, e-mailing, text in, social media. All of this

:56:40.:56:44.

digital stuff should be driving people up and you have to make it

:56:45.:56:50.

easy. If you take all that, can you tell us, do we know yet whether vote

:56:51.:56:57.

leave or Remain have the better getting out the vote infrastructure?

:56:58.:57:01.

One of the things that I've seen is, I look at how many people they have

:57:02.:57:05.

on the database and things like that and if you look at Vote Leave and

:57:06.:57:10.

Leave.EU, that's 750,000 people in that database. More than Remain?

:57:11.:57:17.

That's a lot. I believe it is more than Remain have in their database.

:57:18.:57:20.

As long as they're able to understand not to your time and your

:57:21.:57:23.

money on people that aren't worth it... The last pieces visibility.

:57:24.:57:30.

You've got to have signed. It's a psychological impact it Very well.

:57:31.:57:31.

Thank you. There's just time before we go

:57:32.:57:37.

to find out the answer to our quiz. Which piece of EU

:57:38.:57:40.

memorabilia history A) The giant Euro coin,

:57:41.:57:42.

used at the launch B) Margaret Thatcher's Europe jumper

:57:43.:57:47.

worn in the 1975 referendum? C) The pen Douglas Hurd used to sign

:57:48.:57:50.

the Maastricht Treaty? Or D) The first prototype

:57:51.:57:53.

of the EU Flag? What was it? I suspect it might be

:57:54.:57:58.

that jumper. I'm going to have to say the jumper. It is that jumper

:57:59.:58:02.

and look what I have here. I have the jumper! Would you like to wear

:58:03.:58:08.

one? It's glorious! I think it might suit you both. Here you go. Wood

:58:09.:58:14.

July to put it on? It's going to clash badly but it's got nice Vote

:58:15.:58:20.

Leave colours. Of course that was for Remain in its day. I guess it

:58:21.:58:25.

could be any side now. It hasn't got all the flags. We can do the back.

:58:26.:58:33.

The Daily Politics isn't on for the rest of the week but I'll

:58:34.:58:38.

be covering the referendum results in a special BBC programme

:58:39.:58:41.

on Friday, and there'll be a two-hour Sunday Politics

:58:42.:58:43.

special this weekend, starting at the earlier

:58:44.:58:46.

Catch all the action from Euro 2016 across the BBC.

:58:47.:59:09.

Radio 5 Live or the BBC Sport website.

:59:10.:59:14.

You can also follow all the news and action from the Euros,

:59:15.:59:18.

Download Subtitles

SRT

ASS