Part 1 Election 2016

It is a quarter to midnight. Across the UK, the votes are being counted.

Welcome to the BBC election Centre. A year ago, we had a night of drama.

Tonight, not long to go on to the results start flooding in. In the

studio, Jeremy Vine is looking for the key trends. I wonder whether we

can use the phrase British politics any more, with so many different

battles going on? In Wales, Labour are dominant for the Welsh Assembly.

In Scotland, the battle for the Scottish Parliament. Will the SNP

cover more of the match in yellow? Lets not forget the 124 in this

council elections too. -- the map. On the giant screen, Emily. Will it

be another night of history? The screen will start lighting up as the

result start pouring in. I will analyse them to see how the

political landscape is changing before our eyes. Watching over us

with his team of number crunchers, Professor John Curtice, the man

whose exit poll shocked Britain 12 months ago. Leading politicians with

us throughout the night, and our political editor Laura Kuenssberg

will analyse what it all means for the parties and their leaders.

Welcome to Election 2016 on the BBC. The question, what is at stake

tonight? What should we be looking out for? Counting is under way in

Scotland. This is the scene in Glasgow, where the SNP leader Nicola

Sturgeon is one of the candidates hoping to be elected. Not long

before she finds out if the SNP has done as well as the polls have

predicted. Will it be Labour or the Conservatives in second in the

national vote in Scotland? A very important contest. They have started

counting in Wales. Electing 60 members of the national assembly.

One of them from Llanelli, one of the key battle grounds. Will Labour

from another government in Cardiff? Are we about to see the first

members of Ukip elected to the national assembly in Wales? All over

England, thousands of council seats being contested. Will Labour get

through the night without any losses? We will see. Jeremy Corbyn

seemed to suggest that earlier this week. Will the public divisions over

Europe, not least in the Conservative Party, affect their

performance in some way? Not forgetting there is more counting

tomorrow for the Northern Ireland assembly, the Police and Crime

Commissioners in England and Wales, the London Mayor and the members of

the London Assembly. It is a vast range of Democratic contests we are

talking about. In a moment, I will talk to my special guests, John

McDonnell of Labour and Nicky Morgan of the Conservatives. Laura, what is

at stake? What are the big things we need to be focusing on tonight? It

is a kaleidoscope of elections. Around the country, people will have

been making decisions for all sorts of different local, national and

regional reasons. But this does make a difference to the big picture of

British politics. The biggest question, where there are the most

nervous tonight, are in Labour Party headquarters. This is the first test

for Jeremy Corbyn's leadership from the general public. He has had a

torrid time since he has been in charge, but he still has the

overwhelming support, we think, of Labour Party members. Today is the

first time the general public will have had their say. It looks like

Labour is expected to make some serious losses, particularly in the

local English elections today. And of course in Scotland. The important

thing about that is this. Traditionally in these elections,

opposition parties gain seats. They are vital steps for any party on

their way back into power, to being able to run the country. It appears

that Labour in opposition is actually going to lose seats. Of

course, that will put much more pressure on Jeremy Corbyn, who

especially in the last ten days has looked very vulnerable indeed. We

will pick that up with John, but I want to ask what is at stake for

David Cameron? The funny thing about this election, the Conservatives

have been very relaxed about the local elections. In part because it

looks like they might even make a small number of games. Mainly

because their focus is so much on the European referendum, trying to

contain the very serious official splits inside the party, but also

from number ten, the central machine point of view, trying to win that

referendum. So the local elections have not been a priority for them.

What has been a priority, but we are probably two to much resigned to

losing now, is London's City Hall. Boris Johnson has now stepped down

from that, and we expect that it would be a Tory disappointment with

Zac Goldsmith standing not to win City Hall, and Labour's Sadiq Khan

poised to take control there. That is a big safety blanket, if you

like, for Jeremy Corbyn's leadership, and a big disappointment

for the Conservatives. Tonight, real unhappiness publicly now about how

the campaign was formed. What is at stake in Scotland and Wales? Again,

very different tests. Very different, and really important

competitions. These are national governments in Holyrood and Cardiff.

In Scotland, we expect the SNP to continue their staggering success

story, a third victory there. The last time that election was fought

in 2011, it was a huge victory. But even then, the SNP felt like the

plucky outsiders. That is completely reversed tonight, and we expect

Nicola Sturgeon, an unusually popular leader, will further tighten

her grip on Scotland politically. For Labour, the question is whether

or not the separation between their traditional vote and the party in

Scotland becomes something more like a permanent divorce. In Scotland,

the real interest in this election has been the battle for second. It

may well be the Conservatives take that spot, unthinkable a few months

ago. In Cardiff, can Labour in Wales persist, after 17 years in power

already? Let's ask Jeremy Keith take us through more detail when it comes

to the devolved bodies. -- to take us. Let's look at what happened in

Wales last time, 2011. Voters in Wales have had two votes today.

First for someone in a constituency, a locally elected representative,

and then a vote from a regional list. Let's look at 2011 and see

where it left the Welsh Assembly. As Laura and Huw said, 30 seats left

Labour dominant out of 60. You can see the strongholds in the south,

around Cardiff and Swansea. Labour, pretty unchallenged in Wales. We

will wait to see whether this all-time high result for them in the

Welsh Assembly, the best we have ever got, goes down. Does it go

below 26? The lowest they ever had. In 2011, the Conservatives were in

second. Plaid Cymru were in third. The Welsh Nationalists and the Lib

Dems, five seats. We will be watching keenly to see whether Ukip

members may be elected for the first time to the Welsh chamber. Looking

at the battle ground in Wales. Let's see what might happen if Labour

advantage. These seats are what they would be targeting. Maybe amoral

question, what happens if Labour falls back? -- a more relevant

question. Starting with the order of the most vulnerable at the start,

Cardiff Central, Llanelli, Cardiff North, Vale of Glamorgan and so on,

gradually getting safer for Labour on to the safest Labour seat,

Aberavon. If Labour start to suffer damage in Wales, we will be looking

up here initially. These are the seats logically that would go first.

Cardiff Central, Llanelli, Cardiff North etc. Could they go further

than that? We will see. Scotland in 2011, as Laura said, a completely

different kettle of fish. A storming victory for the SNP. Two votes for

voters, set up almost a stock pot is getting an overall majority, but

that is exactly what they did in 2011. -- almost to stop parties

getting an overall majority. Putting in Labour, you don't much notice the

difference. A distant second. They may even go third tonight, who

knows? It seems strange to say they did very well in 2011, could they do

even better this time? Almost as if we are suggesting they could do

something that is out of their reach. It isn't. Let me tell you

why. In 2011, this was the percentage the SNP got. 46%, miles

ahead of Labour on 32. But they did better in the 2015 general election.

50% of the vote for the SNP. More than double Labour. If Labour get

this kind of vote tonight, and the SNP replicate that, the Labour seats

are in all kind of trouble. You wonder whether they might hang on to

any of them at all. Some talk on Twitter that Labour are in trouble

around Glasgow. We shall see. The SNP have even improved on their vote

since 2011. Let's look at their battle ground. The seats the SNP

would be aiming at if they start to gain, which is not beyond the bounds

of possibility. The most vulnerable to an SNP advance, East Lothian. An

awful lot of red seats to lose. Galloway and Ayr for the

Conservatives would be vulnerable if the SNP, way down the first column.

If they start to take more seats from Labour, they might bump into

Orkney and Shetland. They are the outlying Liberal Democrat seats in

Orange, the only two they have left in the constituency section. We will

watch this very closely. Are Labour being threatened? The central

column... Very interesting. Once you break down these elections, so much

going on, you find the picture does get clearer. You mentioned Glasgow.

Some early signals. Let's go there to talk to our Scotland editor,

Sarah Smith. Just a thought at this stage about the kind of mood music

that you are picking up from the parties. I am in the stadium where

they are counting the Glasgow seats. I have talked to some of the senior

Labour figures who have appeared tonight and they are sounding very

depressed. They have looked at some of the papers that have come in so

far and they are not optimistic that they are going to hold any seats in

Glasgow. Currently Labour have four seats in Glasgow. They could enter

night with none. That is what senior Labour figures are telling me. Not

happy about what is happening in the rest of the country either. After

that disastrous results for Labour in the general election last year,

when they were left with just one MP in the whole of Scotland out of 59,

they thought they had hit rock bottom. People tonight are talking

about how it may be possible for Labour to fall even further in

Scotland. If they do, it will be their worst result since 1918, and

it will leave people asking questions about the future of the

Labour Party in Scotland. Former Labour voters who have gone to the

SNP consistently keep voting SNP, in general elections, Holyrood

elections, so where do Labour go from there? As Jeremy said, this

question about whether or not the Tories could beat them into second.

It still looks unlikely tonight but not impossible. Even Labour figures

are talking about whether that might happen. Remember of course, because

of the PR system that Jeremy described, even if Labour hold

almost no constituency seats, and they are struggling to name two or

three they might be able to hold tonight, they will still get

additional members seats. We're not going to see a Labour wipe-out in

Holyrood but we are expecting a bad night. One of the Glasgow seats is

Nicola Sturgeon's. When can we expect the first results in Glasgow?

A couple of hours before we get them, and we won't see Nicola

Sturgeon herself until her declaration is just about due. She

is pretty confident tonight. She is going to be re-elected as the First

Minister. Making plans, they are going to celebrate tomorrow.

Although she is superstitious and she will not let her aides planned

down to the last detail. We know the polls are not always accurate but a

30 point lead, the SNP seem to be on course to be re-elected as the

Scottish Government. Remember, it is quite a feat. Even if they don't put

on many seats from 2011, this is an electoral system that is supposed to

prevent any party getting an overall majority. They did it in 2011 and

they are confident they are going to do it again. I have John McDonnell

with me. I will talk to him in a second. To what extent is the Jeremy

Corbyn leadership a factor in Scotland? Was this sharply focused

on Kezia Dugdale's leadership style? Is it simply that we are talking

about an SNP steam roller and anything in front of it cannot last?

To a certain extent, you are right about the SNP. Nicola Sturgeon is

the most popular party leader across the UK. Kezia Dugdale, the Labour

leader, is young, she is quite inexperienced, she has only been in

the job about nine months. When you talk to voters, they identify her as

the Scottish Labour leader. They don't tend to talk much about Jeremy

Corbyn's politics or personality. We saw very little of him in the

campaign, a couple of low-key visit. I don't think the Scottish Labour

Party thought he was an electoral asset but, if Labour have a bad

night, it is difficult to lay that at Jeremy Corbyn's door. This

campaign was fought by the Scottish Labour Party on distinct Scottish

Labour Party policies and they will have to take the blame. Let's go to

Cardiff and talk to James Williams. Just an early sense of how things

are going? The big question in Scotland is whether Labour will be

pushed into third place but it is very different here in Wales. As we

expect that Labour will remain the biggest party, a position they have

held since the start of devolution. But, because they have been in

government that whole time, they have a record of 17 years to defend,

they are expecting a relatively difficult night. They currently hold

30 of the 60 seats and they expect to lose anything between three or

four seats. Any further and it looks like a very bad night for Labour and

the sharks could start circling around Welsh Labour leader Carwyn

Jones. The question is which other opposition party will benefit. The

Welsh Conservatives have made gains in every assembly election to date.

Will they continue? They believe they are doing OK in the number of

key marginals. In Cardiff North, the Vale of Glamorgan and a number of

seats in north-east Wales, Wrexham, the Vale of Clwyd which turned blue

in last year's general election, and the number of others. But will those

be offset by regional losses? It could be looking at better at

holding their current position. As for Plaid Cymru, the nationalists,

they can only look enviously at their sister party, the SNP in

Scotland, because they are currently third in Wales and there is no

expectation they will do to much better tonight, perhaps move into

second at best. A big battle to look out for by them, their leader Leanne

Wood taking on Welsh Labour's big beast, Cabinet leader Leighton

Andrews. Llanelli, is it which has moved back and forward between Plaid

Cymru and Labour, will it turn green again? As for the Liberal Democrats,

frankly, it is a question of survival. They are already briefing

tonight that Wales could be their biggest task this evening, so the

question is, will they hold onto any of the five seats they hold?

Undoubtedly, it seems the big story of the night, at least one of them

in Wales, will be how Ukip do. We expect them to enter the Senedd for

the first time through the regional top-up list system. They could win

as many as eight seats, somewhere between five and eight. That would

really shake up the Senedd. We are expecting a hung AM. We expect

Labour to be the biggest party, but will they have enough seats to go it

alone or will they have -- will be need to form a coalition? There has

been a by-election in Wales for the Ogmore seat, which has returned a

Labour MP in every election since 1918 and we don't expect that to

change. Thank you. If Ogmore returned anything but a Labour MP,

that would be an earthquake. There are some results coming in from the

English local elections, so let's catch up with Emily before we talk

to John and Nikki. In the last five seconds, we have had this final

result for Sunderland. We knew it would be a Labour hold, it was

mathematically impossible for Labour to lose it, but there is the full

result that we have had confirmed. The winning post is 38. They need

that to hold the council. They are on 67, a majority of 59, which is

made of all the other parties' numbers put together. Look at the

seat change. You can see what has happened. One game for Labour, the

two independents have lost their seats, and the Lib Dems will be

happy to see the start of a little comeback. What about the vote share?

This is where things get interesting. Let me take you back to

this. The share of the vote. 54%, more than 54%, not unusual in these

parts of the north-east. The Conservatives in second. Watch the

Ukip vote. This is interesting. Last year at the general election, Ukip

got about 20% in places like this. Back in 2012, this is the last time

these exact seats were fought in this same place, Ukip R R 6%, Labour

down 8%. 2012 was really high for Labour in council elections after

two years of Ed Miliband. They might be expecting to fall back a bit. If

Jeremy Corbyn wants a bit of comfort, it might look to this

comparison. A year ago, the local elections, before he took over.

Pushing up for Labour, increases of 4% share of the vote. Take this on

board with caution. This Ukip drop of 8%. They haven't stood in all of

the wars that they stood in last time, so that is why that looks a

bit more exaggerated. -- all of the wards. We know that Ukip are getting

around 20% of the vote in the wards they have stood in. Trafford, we

will see a fight here in this key metropolitan council in the north.

One of not many that the Conservatives hold. They have a

majority of just five, a battle with Labour, will they hold control? We

will be looking out. The opposite story in Crawley, one of very few

councils Labour hold in the south. They are defending a majority of

one. It has a chequered history between the Conservatives and

Labour. If Labour lose a seat, it can go to no overall control. This

is somewhere Conservatives could take. One more, and we will be

watching this very closely, it can an all-out election, so every single

seat is in play. That means there is all to play for, really. You can see

bigger changes where all of the seats are being contested. If Labour

is having a good night, they will want to build on it. If they are

having a bad for troubled night in the south of England, they could

lose this cancelled completely. I will handbag. -- they could lose

this council. Newcastle, Wigan, save for Labour. We will analyse those as

they come through. Some good pointers there as to what we are

looking forward to. John McDonnell, Nicky Morgan, thank you. John, we

can argue about figures all night, high points and low points, but, as

a principle, opposition parties don't really lose seats against

governments. They don't really lose seats at this stage of the cycle.

What are your thoughts on the possibility that you may be in a

position where you lose seats? I think it is more complex than this

now. Scotland is really complex. We are at the early stages of Labour

rebuilding, but we got wiped out in the general election and we only

have one Parliamentary seat left. I think the SNP are still in the

honeymoon post-referendum, where they took a clear position and the

other parties were divided. Wales, 17 years, it is inevitable we will

fall back a bit. As long as we retain control. In terms of the male

role elections, again, if we take a majority, it will be a success. --

the mayoral elections. I think the local government elections

themselves, high point in 2012, you would expect a bit of fallback, but

the test for me will be, in the general election, we were about

seven points behind the Conservatives. In September, we were

14 points behind, so we are making up ground. I am looking for steady

progress, laying the foundations for 2020, and I think it will take if

you've years before we can rebuild our support base. Why did Jeremy

Corbyn say he was not looking to make any losses? No party goes into

an election intending to lose seats. It was an expectation. You don't

tell your own supporters all of a sudden you are going to lose seats.

You want to stand bold and challenging. The reality is that, in

every area, the complexities are such that it is difficult in

Scotland for Labour. It will take us a while to rebuild. I think Wales

will do well, but Ukip are on the scene now. In terms of local

government, there was a high point in 2012, the second year of Ed

Miliband, the omnishambles budget... A high point under Ed Miliband, you

mean. He was making 1600 games in 1996, that is a high point. The 2012

wasn't a high point in that sense. He had a surge from winning general

elections. We haven't got that. In September, 14 points behind. If we

are drawing level and gaining an vote share, we are gaining --

building on the foundations. I congratulate our party workers and

thank everybody who has supported us, but we always said it would be a

long haul. Don't judge us on this election, judge asked over the

coming four years. Difficult not to be judged if people say, Ammon, the

last time Labour lost seats in a local election was in 1982 and 1985

and actually we shouldn't be in that position and that is because how the

party is being led. That's what they will say. I know you are looking for

dramatic stories, but is more complex. Edicts months ago, we were

14 points behind. Now we are drawing level is not going ahead. -- six

months ahead. We need to recognise the complexity of these elections.

The mayoral elections I think we will do well on those. They will

tell us a story about what is happening in certain areas. It

sounds like you were trying to suggest, if you lose seats in

English local elections, which don't have the complexities of different

parties like they do in Scotland and Wales, that somehow it won't matter.

No opposition in modern times has gone on to win a general election if

they lose seats in these kinds of elections. Of course it matters. We

have got councillors tonight who worked really hard and I hope they

get re-elected. But what I am saying is, from where we were last year,

the despondency of last May and then September to be so far behind in the

polls, we are realistic. It will take a while. We are going to

rebuild, and we are rebuilding in terms of policy, how we campaign,

how we communicate. It will take time. All of our members are

realistic. It is going to be a patient build-up of those

foundations. What with the state of play for you? Interesting to see

what happens to the Labour Party. There are key parts of the country,

especially England, where they need to reassert themselves if they are

to see how we do in 2020. Clearly we are hoping that Zac will become the

next met in London. I think he has run a good, clear campaign. -- the

next mayor. Obviously also making sure we keep control of councils we

keep control of but the police and crime commission is an important. We

haven't talked about them much, but they are important local parts of

the community. They hold Chief constables to account, issues which

people care about. So we are looking to hold the Police and Crime

Commissioners we have got but also to make some gains. I am going to

pause for a second. We are going to bring in the former First Minister

of Scotland, Alex Salmond. And you for joining us. What are your

thoughts on what is likely to happen tonight? What are your sources

telling you? My sources tell me it will be a good night for the SNP.

Hopefully, we are set to try and achieve what is probably reckoned to

be impossible, achieving a second overall majority in a political

system specifically designed to prevent that happening, a

proportional system. Those of your viewers who don't know, if you win

more constituency seats, which we are likely to do, you then can lose

them in the regional list because they are counted against you, so it

is a difficult system. We are not there yet but there are early

indications, especially in Glasgow, where we may have made a clean sweep

of the entire city, which would give us great heart, but certainly it is

a hugely difficult ask to try and do this but, at this point, we can say

we are at least in the running to have that extraordinary achievement

by Nicola Sturgeon. Is it at all possible, do you think, that you

will end up with every constituency seat in Scotland? No chance, that is

nonsense. You can't expect that. There are far more Scottish

Parliamentary constituencies than their Westminster constituencies. It

is a different context. There is no chance of the SNP winning every

seat, but we could win more than the very substantial number we won in

2011, when we managed to get that overall majority. It will be many

hours before you know the answer to this question, but will we pay a

penalty for that on the list vote, or whether our constituencies access

will carry forward and allow that overall majority in a proportional

system? The majority last time was nine. Do you think it will be

smaller or bigger? I have no idea. We are set on trying

to get that majority. We are set on trying to persuade journalists who,

for the last two months, I've been talking about it as though it was a

foregone conclusion, something every journalist said was impossible five

years ago, and they have been talking about it like it was a done

deal. Our basic opponent in this campaign hasn't been the activities

of the other parties, our opponent has been avoiding that complacency

and trying to fight that message. Obviously, if your supporters leave

it is all over bar the shouting, there is a tendency not to come out

and vote. Nicola Sturgeon has rightly been emphasising that there

is no room for complacency. If we can achieve that, that would be one

of the most remarkable achievements in modern democratic politics, but

we are far from there yet and it will be a long night, a long morning

and probably a long tomorrow afternoon.

At a final thought, if it is that kind of victory that you are

outlining, and it means all of those things, you know full well that all

of your supporters will be saying straight away that it is precisely

the condition being met in order to talk about a second referendum. What

would you say to those supporters? Nicola Sturgeon spelt out very

clearly her view and the Scottish people's view. Everyone agrees, from

John Major to Tony Blair, that there would have to be a Scottish

referendum on independence if we got dragged out of Europe against our

will. But failing that, Nicola Sturgeon said there had to be a

demonstrable wish for the Scottish people for that second referendum.

The people who should judge that are the elected representatives of the

people of Scotland in the Scottish Parliament. That is our sovereign

Parliament expressing the sovereign will of the people. This election

will indicate that the people of Scotland are more than happy to

leave that judgment about their wishes to Nicola Sturgeon. Thank you

for joining us. We will keep a close eye on things. Alex Salmond. We are

joined by the leader of Ukip Nigel Farage, waiting patiently. Your

thoughts on what is likely to happen tonight? From a Ukip perspective, it

is breakthrough night. We are predicted in Wales to win seats. In

London, with the count tomorrow, to win seats. In Northern Ireland, we

are going to win seats. And in Scotland, it is on a knife edge.

Overall, a breakthrough for Ukip. In terms of England, it is a bit early.

All we have seen is Sunderland, where we are averaging 23% of the

vote in the seats where we have stood, markedly up from four years

ago. The big message is that Ukip is now eating very hard into the old

Labour vote. That is the message we will take from the performance in

these elections. To all of those people who follow Ukip and watching

this, they will be wondering what your sense is of the strength that

is likely in the local elections, leaving Scotland, Wales and Northern

Ireland to one side... What would your guidance be on that? It is so

tough to call. In many of the seats, the difference between coming second

and first is 50 votes, whatever it is. What you will see is is coming

second almost everywhere we stand. The difficulty with our electoral

system, as shown last year, 4 million votes and one seat in

Parliament. That is very difficult. I still think despite those

difficulties we will make advances in England tonight. When it comes to

the Welsh Assembly, because it is not so long ago that Ukip wanted the

Assembly abolished... Many years ago. It is more recent, come on. I

wonder what you want to achieve? If you get members of the Assembly,

what are they going to achieve? Under my leadership, we are

pro-devolution. I want devolution of powers from Brussels to Westminster,

from Westminster at the country. To the Welsh Assembly, the county

council, wherever it may be. We are going there constructively, saying,

look, devolved powers in Wales have given the worst health service

provision in the whole of the UK. And a failing education system. If

we can play a positive role, as people from the real world, we will

do so. Thank you for joining us. We will keep tabs on the Ukip

performance. A thought on that at this point, I am wondering, both of

you, when it comes to the English local elections, how do you view the

Ukip threat to the Conservative councils? Nigel Farage, I seem to

remember sitting here four years ago and hearing that it was going to be

a Ukip breakthrough night. We didn't see that then. And last year it

didn't materialise either. I think actually it is interesting that Ukip

is a threat to some of the Labour seats, areas Labour have taken for

granted for a long time. But something we have detected in our

canvassing, that there is a big Ukip surge, and actually this is all

about Conservative councils showing that they run services well, they

keep council tax down, and people recognising that in the ballot box.

He went out of his way to say he was eating into the old Labour vote. I

don't think any political party should be complacent about Ukip,

about any party challenging for votes, and I don't think the

Conservatives should either. You have to remember, this is the

optimum time for Ukip, with the referendum coming up. You would

expect them to do dramatically better than they are doing that we

have seen in some by-elections so far this evening. This is the

climate in which everyone is talking about the European referendum, Ukip

territory, and they are still not achieving the huge breakthrough they

would expect. If I was Nigel Farage, I would be a bit disappointed. But

we shouldn't take any party complacently, we should tackle them

head on in our local areas. It is notable, some of those areas where

Labour has traditionally been strong, south Wales, Ukip have

performed, as they did in the general election, getting 17-20% of

the vote in areas where you would traditionally win. What is the

reason? Why are you vulnerable? It has affected Conservative areas as

well, to be frank. However, Al party has learned never to be complacent.

There is a new enthusiasm in the Labour Party rank and file. -- Al

party. Local campaigners are seriously addressing it now. We are

campaigning and getting to the issues before Ukip or anyone else

can. We are tackling those issues. Our main problem at the moment, all

local authorities, Conservative, Labour and Lib Dem, are under so

much stress because of government cuts in the grant. Central

government is causing that. That is where it can read opposition and

populism for Ukip, and we have to get the message across. But we are

not complacent. -- it can breed opposition. After the general

election last year, many Labour MPs thought maybe the kind of hollowing

out that the Conservative following had seen might happen to them. In

Sunderland, Ukip have polled more than 20% in some areas. That will

worry Labour in their traditional areas, they may have to think much

more carefully about trying to hold onto their core vote. But there is a

wider strategic question for Ukip at the moment, as John McDonnell

suggested. We are like in the middle of the referendum campaign. Either

way, the party is approaching some kind of crossroads. The result of

the referendum will determine their future. If it is lost by the

Government, it could be a huge motivator for some Conservatives to

go to Ukip, and Ukip could flourish. But if the country votes to leave

the European Union, what happens to Ukip? Their core message has

disappeared. What do they really want to achieve in the Welsh

Assembly if, as we expect, they managed to get posteriors on seats

in Cardiff for the first time? Sunderland is a reflective of the

work that Labour councillors have done to hold back the Ukip surge. --

a reflection. People expected the surge to be much bigger in

traditional ager areas. The strategy has been successful. -- Labour

areas. We are going to take the temperature in other places.

Southampton, such an important contest tonight. Ellie Price, what

is your sense of things at this stage? Outline the nature of the

contest for us. We have heard from a couple of Labour councillors who say

that the Jeremy Corbyn factor simply hasn't been going down that well on

the doorstep. It is a precarious position for the Labour council.

They control the council by two seats. All of this needs to be seen

within a historical context. A lot happen this time around in 2012,

Labour swept control of the council with 11 seats that time. It is

difficult for them this time around. Plenty of seats to defend and it

will be difficult to make any gains. The historical context, it was here

that Ed Miliband chose to come and visit the day after the local

elections in 2012 and the claim that Labour was on track for the general

election. Ed Miliband got egged on that visit. And they lost a seat to

the Conservatives. The gains could happen in places like Southampton.

It could be reflected across councils across the south of

England. All that said, we have also heard from Royston Smith, the MP

would took the seat from Labour in 2015. He said the Conservatives are

not as chipper as they have been either, so a bit of expectation

management on all sides. Thank you. John McDonnell was certainly

reacting to some of those remarks. I want to go to Great Yarmouth,

another contest where we are certainly looking at the Ukip threat

to the Conservatives potentially. Andrew Sinclair, how do you see

things? Well, the East of England is always a traditionally Conservative

place. Nearly half of the seats up for grabs are Conservative. We

expect them to stay Conservative. The interesting thing will be what

happens to the Labour seats in the East of England? No results yet but

we are hearing a mixed picture. Labour sources are telling me they

expect to make a handful of games across the east of England tonight,

perhaps in Cambridge, Peterborough and Norwich. But we are also

hearing, and this ties in with what you were talking about a John

McDonnell a few minutes ago, that Labour is coming under pressure and

is worried about losing seats to Ukip tonight in places like

Thurrock, Basildon and here in Great Yarmouth. Ukip has had a habit for

the last four local elections of causing a bit of an upset me making

headlines in parts of East Anglia. They might do that again tonight.

Thank you. I would like to bring in the former Conservative leader, the

former Cabinet Minister Iain Duncan Smith. Your thoughts on what lies

ahead? Over the whole period, I have been campaigning all over the

country. The north-west, the East of England and a huge at in London. My

constituency is in north-east London, so I spend a lot of time. --

a huge amount. Campaigning for the Zac. In London, Zac will have done

much better than people and the polling says. I think it will be

closed and I hope that Zac will get it, I think he deserves it. But I

genuinely see a real closing in the last week and a half. The rows in

the Labour Party about anti-Semitism has had an effect. So I am hoping

and feeling positive about Zac's chances, and those of the

candidates. It was talked about earlier that the Police and Crime

Commissioner hasn't even been spoken about in all of this. They are an

important feature. I am feeling very positive. I think the story tonight,

and John is touching on it in a way, is about the Labour Party. A year

into government, you would expect the opposition would start really

stepping up towards being a credible alternative to the Government.

Therefore, the story should be about the Government losing seats, are

they going to be in trouble at this point? And, in essence, I don't

think that is the story. The story tonight is the Labour Party looking

to defend seats rather than gaining seats. And worried about the Ukip

surge in some other areas. One other thing in passing, it is only

anecdotal, I accept that, but the number of times I have done

canvassing in London, in different areas, I have come across Labour

voters who have said to me that they are simply not going to vote.

Moderate, centre Labour voters, not turning out. It wasn't about Sadiq

Khan, it was really about Jeremy Corbyn. I did detect there was a

sense that they really didn't feel like this was the direction of

travel for them with the Labour Party. I only say that as an

observation, but it is what I heard. We will take it in that spirit. I

want to pick you up on the remarks about the Labour campaign in London.

You can't escape the fact that the Zac Goldsmith campaign has been

heavily criticised in some quarters. Did you think that criticism is

justified? No. The thing about Zac, I think he is a very straight

player. The whole time I have known him, he is not Doris, he is not

going to be full of razzmatazz and Bonn and Bailey shows. -- not Boris

Some people are good at that. Some people are not. If you have a city

to run, you want someone who is really serious and believes

passionately on key issues, like housing and environment and

transport, getting these things sorted out. I think he has come

across like that. The recent rows about Sadiq Khan are actually about

Sadiq Khan's inability to its brain what he was doing on platforms with

people who are frankly quite unacceptable. -- inability to

explain. It is not an acceptable debate to have about a person likely

to have to lead in London. You want to know whether or not what they say

to the public is correct, and I think that is a reasonable debate,

two eggs on that and decide whether it is true. Not all of your

Conservative colleagues agree with that reading. Andrew Gough, the

senior Conservative on the GLA, said the strategy of criticising Sadiq

Khan for his links to Conservative -- Muslims has been damaging.

Baroness Mosley saying that if Sadiq Khan is not an acceptable Muslim to

stand the mayor, who is? Lots of people don't share your views on the

way the campaign has been run. I don't agree. I'm sorry, I spent a

lot of time on the campaign trail with Zac and four Zac. It is quite

legitimate to ask serious questions about your opponent's ability to

explain what he was doing on platforms with people whose views

are quite unacceptable. And are extreme. It is a reasonable

question. If he can explain it and produce a decent and reasonable

answer, that is part of politics. But I don't believe for one moment

that the public wants to have politicians in campaigns tiptoeing

around issues that are of vital importance. It is nothing to do with

Islam, it is down to the judgment of a politician. Is it your judgment

that you just simply try and toss away ideas about the fact that you

are in certain places with certain people who are wholly unacceptable?

It is a judgment issue, nothing to do with whether or not someone is

Muslim, Christian, whatever. That is the real issue of debate and I think

it is fair and reasonable. After all, Sadiq Khan questioned Zac's

judgment about things and I found it quite legitimate. Zac came through

that very well. Do you have any regret that issues

of race and religion became the headlines coming out of the

Conservative campaign in the London mayoral race, especially when one of

the people, Sadiq Khan, when he was criticised for appearing with them,

they also appeared on several occasions with Conservative

politicians? Everybody who makes -- appears on platforms with people

whose judgment is unacceptable and should examine their judgment. They

should apologise, explain why and accept it. It isn't that people do

it, it is that, when confronted with it, it is what they do to say

whether it was right or wrong, rather than trying to dismiss or

avoid it. If it is wrong, apologise, say you have made a mistake,

recognised it and never do it again. That is being honest with the

public. I don't think this has been an issue around race. Last week, we

have had this massive debate about Labour anti-Semitism. I was on a

select committee some years ago with John Mann and cope when we examined

this. It was chaired by a Labour member. We came to the conclusion

and reported to Tony Blair that the left had a real problem with

anti-Semitism at the time. It seemed very little was done about it then.

It was a serious warning, it took evidence across the board, and this

was a problem. It isn't a judgment about Islam or anything else, it is

how you tackle problems that are there. Do you walk away, do you deal

with them, if you make a mistake, do you apologise? It is judgment, not

race or religion. Thank you for joining us. We will be following the

mayoral race when it happens. That will be into tomorrow, I suspect,

not before breakfast. Several things said there, John, in terms of the

Labour campaign, and the fact that the anti-Semitism row is clearly

affected people's view of things. The way it was handled. What was

said, not least by Ken Livingstone. Do you regret the way it was

handled? I regret that it happened. I made it very clear early on that

Ken Livingstone was wrong and he should have apologised. It has set

us back, no doubt. In terms of how it was handled, every individual

case that has been referred to us has been dealt with promptly. Ken

Livingstone was suspended within three hours. We set up an enquiry

which will ensure that we have clear direction for the future and we will

come out of this stronger and with the credentials of the party that I

thought I joined, which is an anti-racist party with no room for

any form of racism. I think at the end of it it will be stronger. Can I

say about the London campaign, I know Zac. He has campaigned with me

on Heathrow. I am a London MP. He campaigned with me on saving Kew

Gardens from the cuts. He campaigned with me on legislation in Parliament

on the right to recall MPs, so we work closely together. I am saddened

by the campaign that he waged. I don't think it is his character to

do that. I think the Lynton Crosby dominance was shown all the way

through. My constituency is working class, multicultural. I have been

there for 40 years and I love it. This is dividing the community. It

is seen as an attack on the Muslim community but we also had letters

going out to the Tamil community in my area, letters going to other

Asian communities, saying that Sadiq Khan would tax their wedding

jewellery, stuff like that. I haven't seen it in 20 years. It

isn't Zac's character, I don't know why he allowed it, but I think it

has tarnished him for a long time. I am not saying this for party

political purposes. Baroness Warsi made it clear, she wanted to

disassociate herself from it. Andrew Gough, I know him, he, his mother

was a local councillor. He is a right-wing Tory but he said, this is

unacceptable. I hope now that we've moved on and this never happens

again, not just in our capital city but anywhere in our politics.

Aikwood bought an response to the criticism of the campaign. Are you

proud of the Zac Goldsmith campaign? He had been tugging about the issues

that people care about. He condemned Sadiq Khan for being on a platform

with an imam that I know, and I know that Sadiq was campaigning for

Shaker Aamer. I know that one of the joint chairs of that Andrew

Mitchell, Conservative MP. Zac was alongside that same imam. This whole

act from you tonight of more in sorrow than anger, the whole point

is that... It is not an act. Sadiq Khan has had to apologise for racial

slurs. We are dealing with it. Zac has run a campaign on issues that

Londoners care about, housing, safer streets, clean air. These are things

that people talk about in London. Once the Labour Party is to attack

the campaign, that shows they are losing the argument. It shows you

should never get into the gutter like this. All of this sorrow and

anger isn't going to wash, John. Tonight... It is Baroness Warsi,

Andrew Boff... A year after a general election, the same to read

when Michael Foot was leader of the Labour Party. -- the thing to read.

This is about whether the Labour Party is in touch across the country

and it will be played tonight that they are not. You know very well

that the campaign for Zac Goldsmith involved these kinds of things, it

wasn't just about housing and air quality. The Prime Minister used the

dispatch box to make some of the claims that came out of the campaign

and many people in your own party were deeply uncomfortable about

that. There is a wider problem about the Conservatives' inability to win

London. It looks like they will have exceeded control of City Hall to the

Labour Party with an unpleasant campaign that lots of politicians

were uncomfortable about. Shouldn't mask the fact that the Conservatives

have struggled to keep control of London. It will be a close result.

London is a premier, world city. Of course the candidate will care

deeply about it, but it has to be right that we talk about the

judgment of the candidates and also... Let's pause a second. I

think it isn't long before we may get a result from our first Scottish

constituency, and I think that that is probably going to be in East

Kilbride. That is the constituency of Rutherglen. We will be there as

soon as it happened. -- happens. They are gathering, probably looking

at some of the notes. What I would like to do is go over to Emily to

tell us what to expect and look out for in some of these seats. You

asked Alex Salmond if he thought he could win every constituency seat in

Scotland for the SNP, and he graciously batted back away, but

some people tonight will be waiting to see whether the SNP camp will

offer another tsunami. These are the kind of places Labour will be

worried about. Edinburgh north, this is the only Labour seat in

Edinburgh, their third most vulnerable. They have a majority of

just under 600. Neck and neck with the SNP. It isn't impossible that

the SNP will knock Labour out of Edinburgh completely by the end of

the night. In Glasgow, there are rumours from Labour sources that

they think the SNP will take a clean sweep of Glasgow, pushing Johann

Lamont, former Labour leader, out of her seat. They have a bright young

spark for the SNP, Hamza Yusuf. He could be taking over this seat in

Glasgow Pollok. A majority of 600. This is Labour's safest seat in

Scotland, Coatbridge and Clyde is done. If this goes, they are having

a terrible night. What it closely. They need a 6% swing to take it, the

SNP, but it might not be impossible. Let's have a look at one the

Conservatives are defending, Ayr. In 2015, all of the Ayrshire seat swept

away by the SNP, but this one could still put Conservative John Scott

into the Scottish Parliament on the regional list. And the last one you

saw last time round the Lib Dems getting pushed right out of mainland

Scotland. At the moment, you can see, in the Scottish Parliament,

they have these seat of Orkney and Shetland. If Orkney goes tonight,

that would leave the Lib Dems with one. They have had representation

for the Lib Dems since 1950, so anything the SNP can take from the

Lib Dems at a constituency level would be very bad news for them.

Something to watch out for. All of that to come. It shouldn't be long

before we get the first Scottish result in Rutherglen. Stay with us

for that. We will be back in a few minutes. We are going to get a

round-up of the news. Counting is underway in elections to

the Scottish Parliament, Welsh and northern Irish assemblies and more

than 120 councils in England. There are also mayoral contests in London,

Bristol, Liverpool and Salford. For Labour, the first big test of public

opinion since Jeremy Corbyn became leader.

It is the biggest electoral test for the political parties across the UK

since the general election. There are 2747 council seat in England to

be filled along with four mayoral contests, elections for the Scottish

Parliament, Welsh and Moorish -- northern Irish assemblies and lease

and crime commissioners. Some of the first results were announced in

Newcastle. Nick Forbes has been duly elected... The Labour council leader

got an increased majority and the party retained overall control. They

also retained control in Wigan and Sunderland. That should be good news

for Jeremy Corbyn, but he is under pressure. Labour did particularly

well last time when many of the English county council seats were

fought in 2012 and it would always be difficult for the new leader to

do better, but some of his own MPs already feel isn't making in that --

enough progress and the criticism has already begun. We are moving

further away from government, and I think that is because we seem to be

fixated on some issues that are preferable and we seem to have a

team that isn't projecting unity in the party or a vision and policies

that the voters want us to seize. These results should be challenging

for the Prime Minister, governing parties tend to lose seat at local

elections. Tonight, it should be clear whether the spectacle of

members in the same cabinet knocking spots off each other over Europe

have serious consequences. In Scotland, the polls suggest the SNP

will retain their majority, but there is a battle between Labour and

the Conservatives for second. Labour are fighting hard to keep control of

the Welsh Assembly, where Ukip is hoping to get representation for the

first time. In Northern Ireland, the results won't be known until the

weekend. The Lib Dems hope to avoid a repeat of last year's meltdown.

At least 30 people are reported killed in an air strike on a refugee

camp in northern Syria. Images social media should the aftermath of

the attack in the glib province. It is close to the Turkish border. It

isn't clear who carried out the attack. There are unconfirmed

reports that Syrian or Russian planes were involved. Talks are set

to resume next week to try to resolve the dispute over the junior

doctor contract. The governor and the -- government and British

Medical Association agreed in Derry to five days of negotiations during

which plans to impose the contract and the threat of industrial action

would be put on hold. If the talks go ahead, it would be the first time

the sides have met in three months. A huge wildfire in the Canadian

province of Alberta is raging out of control, fuelled by powerful winds.

The wildfire now covers more than 85,000 hectares. 80,000 people have

been forced to leave their homes in the Fort McMurray area. The Speaker

of the US House of the -- US house of representatives says he cannot

produce aboard Donald Trump as Republican nominee. He says the New

York businessman deserved the nomination but he called on him to

do more to unite the party. BBC News understands the Ministry of Justice

is to take over a troubled young offenders unit in Kent which has

been the centre of serious allegations that staff assaulted

children. Ministers commissioned an independent investigation into the

Medway centre, run by the private company G4S, after undercover

filming by the BBC's Panorama. Back now to Election

Just getting a result from Orkney, our first Scottish result. The Lib

Dems have held Orkney. Some talk there that they wouldn't be able to

hold off the challenge from the SNP, but actually it was a pretty

handsome win. Details in a moment. A hold for the Lib Dems in Orkney, a

very good result for them. There had been some talk of the Lib

Dems being damaged because of the controversy around the party in

terms of the former Scottish Secretary. However, as you can see,

a pretty solid win for the Lib Dems in Orkney. 67% of the vote.

The change in the share of the vote, interesting, despite the controversy

I talked about, 32%... The SNP down slightly.

They swing of 16% to the Lib Dems from the SNP. A very good result and

a relief for the Lib Dems. Straight to Glasgow and Fiona is talking to

some young voters. The people our age, 18 was the magic

number when we could first vote. In Scotland, for the very first time

for Scottish Parliament elections, 16 and 17-year-olds have been able

to vote for the first time. How ensues to have they been? What

parties and policies have they been interested in? We have members of

BBC's Generation 2016 windows. They have seen the first result from

Orkney. You voted for the first time today. How was it for you? I was

quite nervous and excited at the same time. A first time for me.

Quite a big thing. A lot of people talk about it. It is also

nerve-wracking, you are deciding the fate of your country. But yeah, I

really enjoyed it. You also voted for the first time, Hannah. How

important that you are involved in the make-up of the Scottish

Parliament? I think it's very important. You don't just sit back

and watch other people vote, you get to take part in the political

process yourself. Amy, another first-time voter. Some people say

16-year-olds don't have enough life experience and knowledge to vote.

What would you say about that? It is really unfair to say that, you could

argue that a large proportion of the adult electorate are equally

uninformed. I know we more 16-year-olds who have voted tonight

than I do adults. We will keep hearing from you. Paul McNamee, the

editor of the big issue. How important do you think it is that 16

and 17-year-olds have the vote here, and how engaged are they? It is

hugely important. We saw after the independence referendum, when

16-year-olds got the vote for the first time, they were immediately

buying into it, they were engaged, asking difficult questions. They

brought something new to the whole process and they made the parties at

in a slightly different way. But I think a lot of the older,

established parties did not move swiftly enough. They didn't learn

the lessons and they didn't reach out to the younger demographic in

this election. Do you think it is something that should be looked at

in the rest of the UK? I do. I was initially cautious about it. I was a

naysayer who said they don't have experience, they don't know what

they are talking about. But they really did their research. They

found out things, they showed up. They showed up people who have been

doing it a lot longer. They had a voice. I am not surprised that the

established parties in the rest of Britain have not tried to bring this

through, but I think they should. There is an electorate out there,

and if you want to get people in, you have to get them in early. We

will be hearing from Generation 2016 through the night. They probably

have more stamina than us because they are used to staying up late.

Get in touch using the #S B 16. Welcome back. To recap, our first

result for the Scottish Parliament is that the Lib Dems have held onto

Orkney. That would be a very, very big boost for them. Let's go

straight to Emily to take us through the figures. It is an astonishing

result for the Lib Dems, particularly after how badly they

fared in 2015. They will be very pleased to hold on in Orkney, 67%

share of the vote. 4500 majority. The SNP in second, 24%. They needed

a 16% swing and exactly the opposite has happened. The change overnight,

what's happened here is a second independent did not stand this time

around and it looks very much as if the independent votes went to the

Lib Dems, up by 32%. The SNP, we have hardly seen them below the line

in recent elections. Certainly not in 2011 or 2015. All the main

parties in Scotland down, the Lib Dems taking the lion's share of the

vote. You might not see this again, a 16% swing from the SNP to the Lib

Dems. That was the kind of figure the SNP was getting over lots of

other parties at the general election in 2015. This time, it's

going from the SNP to the Lib Dems, wasabi as a result of the second

independent not standing. The Lib Dems will be delighted to have kept

Orkney. -- possibly as a result. I imagine they will be feeling more

confident about Shetland too. It would take an 18% swing to the SNP

to get in. On this kind of result, they are in the money. That is the

emerging picture in Orkney, the first result from this cottage

Parliament. Dozens to come in the next few hours. What is the emerging

picture in England? -- the Scottish Parliament. Jeremy is going to take

us through some. Let me show you the map. This is as it was. 124

councils, coloured in as they were when the elections last happened

four years ago. Let's target our attention on the

Labour councils. A lot of discussion on how we judge their performance in

the next ten hours. Let's try and get an answer and look at the

different comparisons. The northern powerhouse is the phrase used a lot.

It works for Labour around Liverpool and Manchester. In a sense, you

expect the map to look like that. It is down in the south, the south-west

and the south-east where Labour need to get more competitive to have a

chance of winning in 2020. This is the map last time. You can

see the Conservative dominance in blue. You can see the odd splodge of

red. Exeter there... The vote was as follows. Robert

Brown, Scottish Liberal Democrats, 2533.

Claire Haughey, Scottish National Party, 15200 and 22.

James Kelly, Scottish Labour Party, 11400 and 79.

I declare that Blair Haughey is elected to serve...

Apologies for the sound, but the figures have confirmed something

Labour in Scotland had been fearing, it has to be said. This is a very

convincing SNP gain from Labour. It does open up the prospect of more

gains for the SNP from those seats that Labour had in the Scottish

Parliament over the last five years. 15,000 votes for the SNP. James

Kelly had been a member since 2007. A local chap. 11,000 500. The

Conservatives in third. 54% turnout, slightly up on the

average turnout for the Scottish Parliament five years ago, which was

around 50%. What has happened to these votes?

The damage to Labour, losing 11% in Rutherglen. The SNP being boosted by

7%. A 9% swing from Labour to the SNP.

If that is going to be applied across the Labour seats previously

held in Scotland, a 9% swing to the SNP would spell extremely bad news

for Labour in Scotland. A very important result, that. A

significant result. Possibly we will look back tomorrow at the events of

tonight and we will spot that and say it was the sign of what was

going to happen to the Labour seats Scotland. Professor John Curtice is

with us. On that, first of all, what should we read into it? The first

thing to note, the swing from Labour to the SNP is of a size that, if it

were to be replicated in the remaining seats Labour are trying to

defend tonight, Labour would indeed not have any constituency seats in

the new Scottish Parliament. It is a big if, of course. Maybe one will

stand against the tide but it does not look like good news for Labour.

The interest now in Scotland, as it were, the battle for second. The

Conservatives are up in Rutherglen, but only by 3-4 points. That would

not necessarily be enough for the Conservatives to overtake Labour. So

the outcome of that is still uncertain. We have heard a lot from

Labour politicians north of the board already that they are heading

for a bad night, but we now have a firm piece of evidence to confirm

that mood. Stay with us, John. I want to ask Jeremy to finish the

case he was making about the English local elections, because he was

building a picture. Then I would like to ask you for some

conclusions. Sorry to interrupt, Jeremy. It emphasises the joy of

this election, so much going on! I was looking at some Labour councils

in the south of England. Exeter, Southampton man next to the Liberal

Democrat Eastleigh. Hastings as well. The Slough and Stevenage and

Harlow. Labour need to do better to expand their influence in the south

of England for people to say they have a chance in the general

election of 2020. John McDonnell was saying earlier about which year we

compare the Labour performance with, because it is a crucial part of this

election. What we know so far doesn't do very much more than

confirm what one would expect. Labour councillors back in Wigan,

Bury, for example. In the south, Tunbridge Wells coloured in blue.

Those are the results on the map in 2016. This graft takes us back to

2008. It gives us a bit of context. -- this graph. Gordon Brown eight

years ago come in third, a disastrous local election

performance. Behind the Liberal Democrats. Four years later, Ed

Miliband did rather well, coming first in the local elections, albeit

he lost the general election. 2012 is crucial. That was the year the

council seats we are looking at were last fought. Labour did well, 38%.

The point being that they need to do well again to hold what they have

got. They need that kind of lead over the Conservatives just to hold

onto their existing council seats, which is very difficult. The

Conservatives only need more than 31% and they start to gain. We heard

the conversation earlier when John McDonnell said, hang on, the

comparison is with 2015. In the election year, Labour did less well

than 2012. 29% of the vote across the country. Coming second. It is

true that you can make a comparison. Maybe by the end of the night we

will say, ah, Labour have done better than last year. But the

problem is they can improve on last year and still lose seats. That is

why we are going to keep going back to 2012 and discussing it again and

again. Trying to work out exactly what it is that Labour have done as

they get their results tonight. That is the comparison I would like

to put to John, books I'm sure John McDonnell will have something to say

about it. The validity of that comparison and what we should

measure tonight up against. Thereof three obvious benchmarks. The first

is last year and, as compared with last year, it is pretty clear from

the 50 or 70 or so of the detailed ward results we have collected that

Labour are doing better than 12 months ago, and the Conservatives

are not doing as well. Though there is some sign of Labour recovery,

some of Conservative reverse. The second point of comparison, we have

to compare it with 2012, because that was when these seats were lost

up for grabs, as Jeremy explained. If we are to looks -- if we are to

understand what is going on, we have to make that comparison. That was

quite a good year for Labour and it is pretty clear that, compared with

2012, Labour are not doing as well tonight as they did four years ago.

Before Nicky Morgan gets too pleased about that, I would also say it

looks as if the Conservative performance is roughly on a par with

2012, which at the time was a disappointing result. The third

benchmark is, our Labour doing as well as Ed Miliband did in the first

set of local elections that he fought in 2011? Again, early days,

but the early evidence is that Labour are not doing as well as then

either. So John McDonnell did at the beginning of the evening suggest

that expectations shouldn't be too high, progress would be incremental,

but there is incremental progress, but perhaps there will be an

argument about the size of the increment Labour have been managed

to produced. In a moment, we will talk to Labour deputy leader Tom

Watson. He is going to talk to us from Sheffield. Thank you. Before I

talk to you, I want Jeremy to give us a little more thought on those

key wards so I can put some of those points. We look at key wards, a

collection of about 900 wards, and we analysed the comparison with last

time, 2012 and so on. We can give you a bit of live data. This will be

a bit unstable and it will change in the evening goes on but, at the

moment, which underlines the point I was making, the comparison is good

for Labour with last year, they are up 3%, that is good. If you make a

different comparison and look at 2012, a rather good year for Labour,

they are down 7%, and that is the point. Ed Miliband went on to lose

the general election, so it wasn't that spectacular, but this is a more

painful comparison for Labour. Let me take that conclusion to Tom

Watson. On that basis, Mr Watson, you are looking at a loss of seats

tonight, and I am wondering what your thoughts are at this stage

before a lot of the results come in, but that is quietly confident

prediction at this point. I am sorry, I didn't see the graft is

going up and down, but I do know it is far too early for me to try and

speculate what the results will be. You know, I think this is one of

those elections where, if we end up with a debate within winning 100

seats or losing 100 is good news for Jeremy Corbyn or not, I think we

miss the point. Jeremy Corbyn has only been Labour Party leader for

eight months. We are coming back from a very low base. There have

been many elections tonight, from Kezia Dugdale, a weak position in

Scottish Labour, in an existential crisis after the general election,

the Carwyn Jones in Wales, and experienced First Minister standing

on his track record with a new forward offer, to Sadiq Khan, who

has been through one of the most vicious campaigns I have seen in

politics. Hopefully he will be successful. To the English regions

and councils where there are debates about the future of local services.

It is far too early to draw any conclusions. We haven't even

discussed the Police Commissioner elections which we will not have

results for until Sunday. I can't speculate with you right now on the

future of the Labour Party, but you cannot hang all of these results on

a new leader of the Labour Party after only eight months. I am sure

lots of people watching would agree with that but they would also

possibly say that it is very, very unusual for an opposition party to

be making losses in an election like this. You've got to go back 30 years

to see another case. They would be concerned about your prospects going

forward. Politics is always unusual and there are always unique

circumstances. Labour finds itself in a situation of two very

depressing general election defeats, the last one quite severe, with a

huge hit to us in our heartland in Scotland, with the Labour Party

membership deciding they wanted to take the party in a different

direction in the form of Jeremy Corbyn. It will take time for Jeremy

to set out his stall, signpost the direction he wants to take the party

in and convince the country. I say to people out there, he will need

more time to do that. We need to respect the mandate he was given by

our members. On that theme, that is your message, clearly, I am being

told by colleagues in Portsmouth that the Labour leader in Portsmouth

says, Jeremy Corbyn is a disaster for us, he is incompetent, incapable

of giving the leadership we need. What would your message be to those

parliamentary colleagues of yours who would be acting on that message,

too? I have never met John ferret, but I do follow him on Twitter, I

think. He has been saying that about me and Jeremy every day since before

Jeremy was elected leader, so I'm not sure that his position is

particularly news. But he is sticking to the message. The

important thing is, and I am not underestimating how important the

views of our councillors are. If we do lose seats, I want to talk to

every one of those councillors that uses their seat to find out what

voters were telling them. If we have to listen and learn from what they

are telling us, we will do. What I'm saying at this moment if it is far

too early to try and speculate on and of course John Ferrett in

Portsmouth doesn't know the results of these elections. It is almost as

though he designed his press release before seeing the results. I ask

people to take a bit of time, to be patient, to look at the results and

try and genuinely understand what the British people are telling the

Labour leadership team they have to do to make sure we can win them back

at the general election. A question from Laura. Even Michael Foot won

nearly 1000 seats in 1981. The novelty of a new leader. Your new

leader, who so excited the Labour Party membership, it seems he will

be doing the opposite to the general voting public. What do you say to

your colleagues inside the Labour Party you spend your days with,

alongside them at Westminster, and you know very well that many of them

will look at tonight and be agitating for Mr Corbyn to move on.

What do you say to them if the results are as we expect? I only

heard part of that question. I think you said, what would I say to my

colleagues if we get a poor set of results? What I would say is, look,

you know, I have probably spoken to more Labour Party members than any

other MP in Westminster this year, and those members have got a sense

of decency, and they say, let Jeremy Corbyn set out his stall and give

him the space and time to do it. I talk to members on all wings of the

Labour Party, the new members, the old members, the members on the

left, the members on the right, and they all say, Jeremy has a mandate

and we need to respect it. Patience is what I would say to those

colleagues coming out with intemperate remarks. Thank you very

much for joining us. Maybe we will talk to you tomorrow sometime when

we have more results. Tom Watson, the deputy leader of the Labour

Party. We are joined from Westminster by Baroness Britain of

the Lib Dems. Thank you for waiting to talk to us. After that

encouraging result for the Lib Dems in Scotland, one of our first

results, what are your prospects in the local councils in England? As

with Scotland, the areas where we have been strong, I have been going

round over the last few weeks and I have seen a lot of good work on the

ground and in encouraging voter response, but I don't think we would

ever be foolish enough to say that things were going to change

overnight. After last year's result, we know we have a long, hard fight

back, and I am hoping we will see at least a steadying of things and we

will be where we were before and, with any luck, make a few games. I

think Liam's result in Orkney absolutely demonstrates that where

we are known well, where our councillors and members are

respected by their communities, we still have a strong vote. Where are

your best hopes for gains in the UK? It is too early to say. No. Far too

early. Because, if viewers are watching, thinking, she doesn't

sound that confidence, what would you say? It is very difficult, a

year after last year's result, to pinpoint exactly where we will make

gains, but we have already made a gain in Sunderland, with an enormous

swings us, which certainly wasn't on my radar at all as being one that we

would take, although I know we have been working quite hard up there. I

think we will be pleasantly surprised by some wins. In other

areas, let's hope that we build steadily. Because what we have done

in the past when we have had a setbacks. It takes a while, but we

have done it. Our members have been keen, but working, thousands of

them, making calls and knocking on doors, as the result we have had

from Orkney tonight shows we are on the way back. In queue for joining

us. Thank you for staying up late. -- thank you for joining us. Let's

go to Liverpool and talk to my colleagues there, the political

editor for BBC north-west. We are not just talking about local

elections, thereon mayoral contests going on, including one in

Liverpool. What is your sense of what is going on? Let's talk about

the mayoral contest in a moment, but local elections first in your

region. Well, a couple of particularly interesting ones here,

in terms of the local elections. The first is Stockport. That is a

council under no overall control, but the Liberal Democrats are the

largest party. They have run it for many years, and they are in trouble

tonight. It sounds as if they are going to lose seats, including very

likely the leader of the council, Sue Darbyshire. Although it is early

days, I think this means that Labour is going to become the largest party

in Stockport. That will be a real blow, I think, for the Liberal

Democrats in the north-west of England. Another significant council

is Trafford. Significant because it is one of only two metropolitan

councils that the Tories ran in the country, and there the news is good

for the Tories. Not only do they think they have held it, there is

even a possibility they have made gains. We will look out for those.

Talk to us a bit about the mayoral contest in Liverpool. And what is

likely to happen and what the timings are. The timings are

slightly disappointing, because we think we might be here until

possibly 5am waiting, and it feels like a pretty inevitable result,

that Joel Anderson, the mayor of Liverpool, standing for Labour, is

almost certain to win a second term. He won it by a landslide four years

ago when the role was created and he is almost certain to win again. I

saw Joe Anderson arrived a little earlier. It is quite an odd

election, in the sense that Joel Anderson only wanted to do this job

for one year, course next year the more powerful metro mayor is being

created, the mayor for the Liverpool city region, what some people have

called the mayor for Merseyside, 46 councils. Joe Anderson wants that

job which means, potentially, if he wins tonight, which he almost

certainly will, he might not be doing it for very long. Thank you.

Exclude Plymouth and talk to our colleagues there. The prospect in

Plymouth, talk through what is likely to happen. Here, a fierce

battle between the Conservatives and Labour for control of the council.

Four years ago, Labour regained control from the Conservatives, but

four years later it is a very different story for the Labour Party

here. Since last year, they have been running a minority

administration. The Conservatives need to gain just three seats to win

control of the council. They have been working, they have had a

special working arrangements, so the minority administration can get

council business through. Talking to the Conservative leader today, he is

quietly confident he can get the three games he needs. Looking around

the table today, verification is still going on and we don't have any

declarations yet, but the sense among the Conservatives is that the

Labour vote is down in some areas and the Ukip vote is up. One of the

things the Conservative leader there has been emphasising on the doorstep

and trying to make political capital out of this Jeremy Corbyn pars

leadership, in particular focusing on the particular possible threat to

naval dockyard jobs because of Jeremy Corbyn pars objection to the

renewal of the Trident deterrent. We will have some more results in a

second from Emily. Laura, you have been sent something interesting. We

have. Even more interesting considering what we have been

hearing from John McDonnell and the deputy leader of the Labour Party

Tom Watson. Very firm that these elections are just a step on the

road to recovery and that Labour need time. A copy of the speaking

notes, which all parties prepare for these kind of evenings, Labour's has

been passed to the BBC, written before the results came in. It

explains carefully what John McDonnell's defence will be through

the night and how the party will explain these results, saying they

are rebuilding with a focus on the 2020 general election and it will be

a long, hard climb back. Crucially, it explains a strategy whereby they

won't be looking at the 2012 elections, which normally in these

kinds of elections would be what we would look at for accurate

comparisons, but instead they will be looking to compare the share of

the vote at the general election last year with what happens tonight.

Professor John Curtice explained in detail how seriously we should take

these different sets of numbers, but this shows very clearly that the

Labour Party has had to prepare its excuses very, very carefully to

explain away any criticism from what we traditionally expect their

performance to be on a night like this. Is that fair, John? I think I

wrote them! They are not excuses. I thought John Curtice was extremely

fair. You can take different things and comparisons, what I compared was

how far and the Jeremy Corbyn have we come since the last general

election and since he was elected? -- how far under Jeremy Corbyn. We

were 14 points behind when he became leader. If we are gaining on that,

it is progress for us. I think it was a fair assessment. Where we are

going now is steady progress. I genuinely think there will be mixed

results tonight, because of the complexities of Scotland, Wales and

etc. I think we will get a bit of a significant boost from the Mayoral

elections and that will help morale overall, but I think we are on

course with a four year programme for Labour in exactly the way we

expected. Let's see if Emily's results give us a bit more context.

This is exactly why this argument matters. It is not just about the

results, it is about the way you read the results. What is starting

to emerge is the pattern John McDonnell and Laura have described.

In Bury, Greater Manchester, it is a Labour hold, never in any doubt.

Even though there are still two more seats to declare, Labour is on 31.

That is the overall story. But here is where it gets interesting. If I

take you to the last time these seats were fought in 2012, you can

see the Labour share of the vote looks like it has fallen

dramatically. The Labour share of the vote was down seven. Taking you

back to 2012, the Labour share of the vote was down by seven and the

Conservatives were up by six. So if used art from that point of view, it

looks like the Labour Party are going backwards. They will tell you

it is a high water mark, but have they gone backwards since then? A

year ago, not the same seats but the same council, council elections, you

start to see a pattern emerging. Labour up a little bit, 4%. The

Conservatives also up a bit, but Labour rising more quickly. Ukip is

a complication, because not as many Ukip people have stood in the same

seats this time around. That really goes to the heart of this story. We

are starting to see it repeated in other places. Bolton, 34-15.

Back in 2012, the Labour vote is down 10%. Not a figure they will be

happy to see. Ukip up 19%. Their high watermark was in 2013. If you

go back 12 months, the first signs of growth for Jeremy Corbyn and John

McDonnell's Labour Party as opposed to Ed Miliband's. The point I am

making is if you compare from when Jeremy took over until now, we are

on a clear path of improvement. Nothing more. I don't want to

overemphasise, I am just saying that is exactly what our strategy is all

about. That is what the briefing I wrote is all about. I don't take the

other comparisons lightly either. John Curtice has some good points to

make about comparisons with individual local authorities. Your

colleagues inside the Labour Parliamentary party, some of them

have said it privately, that at this point in the cycle you should be

winning hundreds of seats... That was never realistic, and they know

that as well. The issue is from... Is our share of the vote going up?

Yes. In the north-east, we have just had a swing to Labour of 4%. Is it

steady progress? Yes. Have we got four years to go? Yes. We lost the

last general election on economic credibility. We are rebuilding that

on the basis of the advice we get, the policies we put forward, the

debate we are having. It is going to take time and the party members know

that. They are campaigning and it is wonderful, but they know it will be

a tough slog. We will say goodbye to both of you quite soon, I am sad to

say. A final word on John Curtice's quite firm message a few minutes

ago... On the basis of what we have seen so far, the comparison with

2012 again, it's not terrific for you so far? Why? Obviously we are

year into a general election, still having to do difficult things to

rebalance the economy. We have to look at 2012. I am happy to take the

thing about our performance compared to 2012, but we have to look at the

Labour performance, comparing like with like. John can write what he

wants and try to explain it away, but in 2012, Ed Miliband was gaining

hundreds of seats. People in the Parliamentary Labour Party, Jeremy

Corbyn promising to bring millions of voters, they have to gain 400

seats... Jeremy Corbyn said they would not lose any seats. Those

things are not going to come to pass. Labour is not winning seats in

the heartlands it needs in order to think about being a government in

2020. Ruth Davidson has run a fantastic campaign in Scotland. We

have to see what is going to happen there. But for the Conservatives to

be run-in close in Scotland... We would not have thought that a couple

of years ago. -- to be running close. It shows when a Labour Party

leader stands up and starts talks about taxing people more, when they

earn ?20,000, people don't like that. John can talk about rebuilding

economic credibility but it is not happening as far as the voters in

the heartland of England are concerned. We shall see the end the

night. We are going to go to Glasgow. I am going to talk to the

former MP for Glasgow Central. On the list for the Scottish Parliament

this time. Your sense of how things are going so far, given that

Scottish Labour have had some sporting results already? I think we

knew from the outset that this would be a challenging night. I am

confident we can get good results in Edinburgh South, where we have a

great candidate, Daniel Johnson. And in East Lothian, we have a shout

with Iain Gray. A long night ahead. What will it mean for the Scottish

Labour Party at the end of that long night? Demonstrating we have had

five years of talking about what Scotland cannot do, but actually now

we need to focus on what Scotland can do with the powers it has in

Scotland. Using the tax powers to fight austerity and invest in public

services. What we have seen tonight is hopefully an endorsement for

those views and a platform on which we will fight the SNP had over the

next five years. Share with the viewers that you were the deputy

leader of Scottish Labour between 2011 and 2014. The report into

Scottish Labour, one of the most damning things it said was that you

were too similar to the Conservatives and people could not

distinguish. Is that the result of your continued adherence to

Westminster, that sort of pattern, in the past? What is it about?

Firstly, I was part of the leadership when we won the council

elections last time. We were successful in a referendum. More

importantly in this campaign it is clear to see who talks the language

of socialism and who puts policies forward to fight austerity and

improve public services. The SNP promised a 50% tax band last year,

they scrapped it this year. They have got the tax powers now but they

have refused to use it. Instead they want to take the Tory cuts from

Westminster and hand them down to Scotland. We have demonstrated in

this election that we are on the right side of the argument in terms

of the socialist left-wing platform and we are proud of that record and

that platform in this election. In which case, I am bound to ask, why

do you think the voters of Rutherglen voted as they did? If we

are honest, it was too soon for us. A challenging number of years here

in Scotland. Particular challenges after the referendum campaign. I

think we were saying the right things, but sadly too many people in

Scotland are not yet willing to listen to that message. We have to

use this campaign as the basis of being a strong opposition in the

next five years. Not running away from Al manifesto but using it as a

basis to form a strong opposition and to challenge the SNP. -- our

manifesto. To use the powers we have and to help transform Scotland. Do

you think Mr Corbyn spent enough time in Scotland during this

campaign? If he didn't, would that have been helpful to you? It was

great to have Jeremy Hill in Portobello and in Port Bridge and

Glasgow. -- Jeremy here. He is the leader of the UK Labour Party and he

is welcome in any part of the UK to campaign for the Labour Party, and

we look forward to having him here many more times in future elections,

for example the local government elections next year. Thank you for

talking to us. In a moment, down to south Wales, but Laura, a quick

comment. One of the interesting things about Mr Corbyn, the Labour

Party in Scotland did not want him to visit a lot. At the beginning he

said he would campaign there every week. He said his policies of

fighting austerity would work in Scotland and make a difference. He

has not been visible in that campaign, but worth noting that

Kezia Dugdale positioned Labour to the left of the SNP in Holyrood,

with more Corbyn style policies, even if he wasn't a fun person. It

seems at this early stage of the night that that has not paid off. --

a front person. In south-west Wales, Haverfordwest, Caroline Evans, our

correspondent. Interesting contests for the Welsh Assembly. Talk us

through what we are expecting in Haverfordwest.

Oh dear, I am sorry, we don't have sound for you at the moment. We will

be back in Haverfordwest when we have it. Liam Fox and Emily

Thornberry have joined us in the studio. Some more results have come

in, so let's get those. Nuneaton and Bedworth, a Labour hold. Nuneaton

might ring bells for anybody who was up in 2015. That was the moment

where we suddenly started to see how this Conservatives would get that

majority, when some of these seats in the West Midlands didn't go

towards Labour. At a council Labour level, it has remained a Labour

council. Look at what is happening beneath the surface. This is where

you start to see the ripples of the night. Labour is down three seats,

the Conservatives gaining those. This is an interesting pattern that

is coming through that you won't see from the headline. In Havant, near

Portsmouth, it is a Conservative hold, a safe seat for the

Conservatives, a majority of 24. Once again, beneath the surface,

this time, those Labour seats are going to Ukip, so you are seeing

Labour losing out to Ukip in the south and Hampshire and losing out

to Conservatives in a place like Nuneaton, which was at the centre of

the battle last time. A big caveat on this one, with eight more to

declare, Thurrock, very tightly fought 3-way marginal in 2015. This

isn't a full result, but you can see what is so far an extraordinary

night for Ukip. They are in the league in Thurrock. The

Conservatives on 13, Labour on 12. -- in the lead. The winning post is

35. That could shuffle round in a big way. At the moment, a dramatic

picture for those three parties in Thurrock. Ukip are in the lead. That

prompts an interesting question to both of our guests. Given the

backdrop, of the referendum, we have been trying hard to focus on some

very important issues in local elections, Scotland and Wales for

the parliaments and the assembly, but lots of canvassers have come

back saying, people haven't really wanted to talk about that, they have

wanted to talk about the referendum. Is that your experience? We were all

under instruction to talk about the Scottish elections in Scotland, the

Welsh elections in Wales and yet, wherever I was, people wanted to

talk about the referendum, which was inevitable given the short gap in

time and tween the two sets of elections. Stephen Kinnock and I

were comparing notes and we got the same feeling back from voters. It

has been interesting is the way in which the Ukip vote is held up well.

I think there is an undercurrent of referendum in all of this. It

therefore isn't something you can compare to what was happening in

either of the two previous sets of local elections. There is another

undercurrent in this one. What is interesting to me is how this will

play across. It looks as though Labour losing support to Ukip in the

north of England as well. That says there is a section of Labour voters

are in play in the referendum. I think it is, with Jeremy Corbyn 's

leadership something that hasn't been mentioned is, if the Remain

campaign to win, they have to mobilise Labour voters, had a lot of

that will depend on Jeremy Corbyn 's credibility, which at best will not

be enhanced tonight and at worst will be damaged. What is the

Conservative vulnerability? It looks like we are doing well and we are in

net gain territory in terms of councillors. Labour and the Lib Dems

are both in negative territory so far. Clearly, that is something that

will be in play in the referendum. I can feel that undercurrent that

people are saying, actually, this is what we want to talk about. There is

almost a feeling among voters that, you should be talking about what we

want to talk about, not what you want to talk about. I guess we will

see that as the night goes on, where that trend takes us. Emily, is that

your experience? I hardly agree with anything that Liam has just said.

When I talked to people if you weeks ago, they would talk about the

referendum and I would say, actually, I am talking about the

council, or London or whatever, and they would say, actually, I want to

talk about schools, social care, these are bread and butter issues to

people. Absolutely they wanted to talk about it. There was much more

possibility -- publicity about the referendum so, once people began to

realise, they wanted to talk about these things. I think it is far too

early to say that Labour is losing out to Ukip or the Tories or what.

It is jumping to conclusions. In 2015, it looked like certain trends

were being established. Labour were losing votes to Ukip, we were being

squeezed by the Tories, the Lib Dem vote was being split between Labour