Dr Mustafa Abushagur, Deputy Prime Minister Libya, 2011-2012 HARDtalk

The constitution requires at least three million signatures,

Welcome to HARDtalk. Over the last five years, the Libyan state has in

shattered into fragments. Now it has a UN backed government committed to

restoring unity. But the omens don't look good. The political scene is

confused. Multiple well-armed militias call the shots on the

streets. And the jihadists from the Islamic State pose a continued

threat. My guest is the former deputy minister, Mustafa Abushagur.

He backs the unity government. Is Libya beyond salvation? Mustafa

Abushagur, welcome to HARDtalk. Thank you. Let's talk about what is

happening in Libya. In the past two months you have had a unity

government, the so-called National Accord. But the idea it is united,

your country, it is fantasy. For the time being, it is. But the

international court came a -- as a result of the dialogue as part of

the United Nations... You are part of that? Yes. It started in January

2015. It was a very long process. At the beginning, the parties who joins

that... What happened in 2014 we had a court in Libya and trippy oh

Tripoli. We had an election for the Parliament. They refused to hand

over to the new parliament. I don't want to get our audience to

confused. The bottomline is that for a long time you have had two

authorities both claiming legitimacy. A House of

Representatives that went off in the east of the country. They claimed

they were the legitimate authority. Now, thanks to the efforts of people

like you and the UN you have this new Prime Minister and unity

government sitting in Tripoli. But it is one thing putting this down on

paper and claiming to be uniting the country. For the past few months all

we have seen is fighting and military activity. There is no sense

that the new Prime Minister can actually impose his will. He is

starting to take the right steps towards that. We expected this would

be challenging. A challenging phase in the life of Libya. Having

agreed... When they come to Tripoli, the militias, we expected

they would refuse, like what happened in Benghazi. But it didn't

happen. Most of the army formations, militias, whatever we

call them, realise this is an opportunity for the country to move

forward. But the idea is that the Prime Minister does not control the

militias, they control him. He can sit in his heavily fortified navel

the as long as they let him. -- naval. But as we saw him arrived in

the city and wanted to come by air and couldn't and had to come by

boat, as we can see he doesn't call the shots. Things have changed. He

has the backing from the international community. That made

clear this is the legitimate government. Now he can control the

money. If he can control that he will eventually be able to control

the militias. I tell you what, in Libya right now I would rather have

the guns than the money and he doesn't control them. He does not.

Let's be realistic and not talk fantasy. One of the things that,

apart from the guns, that he doesn't control, is still this House of

Representatives elected in 2014 sitting in Tobruk. In theory,

according to the documents you worked on, it still the legitimate

Parliament. -- is still. They refused to return and make this new

Prime Minister. In a sense they still hold power. -- legitimise. It

has been approved by the house -- House of Representatives. But not

the majority. What happened, this is February 23, to vote on the

government, after he presented it to the Parliament, on that day we are

ready to vote for the government. We have 102 at a 192. -- out of.

Unfortunately we could not hold the session because the president of the

House of Representatives, the speaker, refused to have a session.

They turned the lights off on us. This is Libya all over. Your Prime

Minister cannot even command the respect of the Speaker of the

House. Frankly, you say it doesn't matter, we have the support of

parliament, but you don't. It hasn't rubberstamped this new government.

Not in a conventional way. But we moved out of this hall and we, the

102 of us, signed a new treaty. That is a deeply Libyan solution. Of

course. It isn't sustainable. Let's move on to something more profoundly

problematic. The role of perhaps the most important military general in

Libya today, Khalifa. He controls the loyalty of many, he calls it the

Libyan National Army. It is a potent military force in the east of the

country. He, just the other day, gave a television interview in which

he described this unity national accord government as quote unquote

nonsense. -- National Accord. Of course. He realises that if there is

a national government he will have nothing to do. He formed a militia.

At the time he had no legitimacy whatsoever. He decided to come and

attack Benghazi to fight terrorism as a military chief. There is only

one government that existed when he started. Not two. He attacked on

Ghazi. -- on Benghazi. This person says to the Libyan people that we

are the legitimate military force in this country. To quote his recent

interview, we will not leave one part of Libya alone. He believes he

is the force that can unify Libya. A man with weapons and men and the

will. He sees himself as Batman. Of course he sees himself as that way.

He sees himself as the inheritor of Gaddafi. But 75% of the country does

not accept him. The population of Brazil. He tried before that and was

rejected. Sorry to interrupt. Do you see him as a war criminal? The old

government did to be one of his old staff who recently left his service,

Muhamed, says he has been using secret paramilitary forces to carry

out abductions, killings and the headings. Would you like to see him

put on trial? Yes. He committed crimes. This is his Luton and, he is

speaker, and it is clear he did all of this. -- lieutenant. We know he

did this. It is clear from the trials. But Khalifa has the most

coherent military force in Libya today. When you say the man is

possibly a war criminal and needs to be trialled for alleged war crimes,

it says to me that yet again here is a very deep hole that Libya is about

to fall in... No. If you look at the Libyan army there is more than

100,000 throughout the country and listed. -- enlisted. The number who

would follow him would not accede a few hundred. I don't think so. -- go

over a few. Most of those people have been trained for like two

weeks. They would die in the hundreds and thousands in a battle.

I would hate to see any one of them being killed. They are being killed

every day. Unfortunately. You have talked about Benghazi where the

fight is very active. But perhaps the most important frontline,

especially with Western powers looking on, the most important line

is Sirte, where Islamic State has a stronghold. And then on the other

side you have Khalifa encircling the city. And then another side the

Muslim Brotherhood, some related to the government in Tripoli. It seems

there is a race to liberate Sirte from Islamic State. But that is not

going to necessarily make Libya's problems any less serious. You will

have a huge fight between the different militias. The real fight

is not going on in Sirte, it is going between the council he has

formed made out of military officers and others. It has gone on for...

They look more loyal to themselves than the Prime Minister. Let's leave

that aside. The West wants to believe that somehow it can help

Libyan forces liberate Sirte from Islamic State. They are worried

about Islamic State's strength, obviously. Obviously. Do you think

the West should be arming these different forces that are trying to

take on Islamic State? Would that be wise? Islamic State is a danger to

Libya and the world. Obviously. Again, though, it has to be unified

under the government of National Accord and needs support from the

international committee. But there is no point in talking fantasy. They

are not united, those trying to take on Islamic State. John Kerry said

the other day that we must do everything we can to confront

Islamic State in Libya. So, would be West be wise to lift its arms

embargo and send arms to the various different militias and fighters who

are confronting Islamic State in Libya today? Those they are

confronting, at least from the West's diet, they are under the

leadership and have accepted the leadership. -- side. They will need

the support. They need training and logistics and intelligence. They are

getting that. I don't know Howard you feel as a Libyan knowing there

are hundreds, it seems, hundreds of Western special forces on Indian

soil today. -- how you feel. British, Australian, and Americans.

There is a group of them in the east and the West. They are intelligent

scattering and are helping them to defeat Islamic State. You want them

to go into Sirte alongside the Libyan fighters?

No, I just want them to provide support and I don't expect the

Americans or British or Italians to fight this fight. What are they

going to do? Sit on the site and watch? Clearly help with planning,

intelligence, training for the people who can fight. It seems to

me, and I think the man appointed by the Prime Minister to be your

Foreign Minister, has said that the problem so often in Libya over the

last five years is that the West has looked through a very

self-interested prison when it addresses Libya's problems. --

prism. It worries about Islamic State and migration, but it doesn't

really consider the needs of Libya as a nationstate. Do you think

that's a fair criticism? I don't think it is accurate. I think

there's a lot of interest from international community. A stable

Libya can clearly help stabilise the whole region. About the time Libya

is in the background of Europe and any problems in Libya, especially

instability, can spill over to Europe. Even Barack Obama recently

in a interview said that one of his greatest regrets was the failure of

American and Western policy in Libya. He said the Brits got

distracted, the French got distracted, we got distracted and we

never followed through after toppling Gaddafi. Because they

thought it would be easier for the Libyans to deal with it, not of

course we still have the legacy of Gaddafi. So there was no plan for

after, too, and help the Libyans build institutions. -- to help. So

they thought as long as they brought Gaddafi downed the next step would

be easy. What would a coherent Western strategy toward Libya today

look like? I think it is coherent in the sense that they need to put a

lot of effort and help in building these institutions and help us fight

against Daesh. This is essential. We have serious problems in the

country. When Gaddafi fell the whole country collapsed. That's why when

we don't have institutions we can't execute any of these plans. So a lot

of training needs to be done, a lot of help by expertise that need to be

in bedded with the Libyan institutions to be able to help us

to overcome. It is chicken and egg. It is. I come back to the general

who hangs over this conversation because of his military strength, at

least in the east of your country. He says, forget about all this talk

of political rebuilding, of dialogue and institutions. Until we've won

the war. So he says military solution first and only then can we

really talk about rebuilding the political stability of the country.

There's no military solution for Libya. He can't win a war in Libya.

I know that's what he thinks he will be able to do. Because clearly...

Because the east after the revolution was very different from

the West. The revolution in the east last few days and then after that

came stable. The West took about six months, so that's why it happened

that a lot of these militias have been formed during that. So the

general cannot take over. There would be a massacre. So really the

only solution is a political solution. He needs to be part of the

solution, how we can achieve... So despite the fact that earlier you

said you would like to see him on trial for war crimes, you think he

has to be part of the solution? Clearly we cannot just remove him by

decision. He will not go. But the solution that we need to do, I mean

where he gets his support? Who is supporting him? We know who it is.

It is coming through Egypt, other neighbouring countries. Some of the

Gulf states. Yes. Clearly they are supporting him and they have

supported him continuously, even there is a numb argot in Libya.

Unless those countries. Really intervening in Libya there will be a

problem. -- will cease intervening. Let's talk about migration. You are

the jumping off point for a lot of people from other parts of Africa

who want to get into Europe, but also there are many Libyans who want

to escape from your country because the situation is so dire. The

economy is in meltdown and we have all of this violence as well. The

agency Interpol has just said that they believe there may be up to

800,000 would be migrants waiting in Libya to try and make the crossing

into Europe. That's an extra ordinary number. Do you think that's

right? If they are waiting outside of Libya that is different, but I

know there are a lot of them in Libya, the hundreds of thousands...

I think the implication is a lot of these people are Libyan. There are

many who want to get out. There are. If you look at the Libyans in the

east or the West, they are looking to leave, but there are economic

problems that are facing the Libyan people, especially with liquidity

and so on... Your banks are running out of cash, your food prices are

spiralling. Basically, because the oil output is down by two thirds at

least, the oil price is plummeting. The IMF says he will run out of

money by 2019. Your economy is totally collapsed. That's why we

need a political solution so we can bring the country back to stability

and bring back the production of oil to before 2013. And to face these

problems. There is no military solution and that's why those who

try to have military solution it's not going to happen. That will bring

us into civil war, because neither the forces in the West or East can

win this war. We talked about the West's role in helping you fight IS,

but just to finish up on the migration point, it seems to be odd

that the European Union naval operation, which is trying to

control migration from Libya and the north African coast, isn't allowed

into Libyan waters. Why would you let the naval vessels into your

waters? The government had -- has to decide that. Why are they allowed

now? What are they going to do? Are they going to shoot them all rescue

them? They are going to bring them back to go back to your country.

That causes a lot of problems. So you aren't prepared to co-operate

with the EU? And did you want support? We are willing to

co-operate, but the solution for this immigration problem is

protecting the Libyan country's borders. We need help to do that.

This problem has been for a long time. The numbers are now much

bigger, but why those people are coming? Because they are suffering.

So there needs to be an international solution to this

problem to bring some development to those nations that people will stay

in their country. But right now it is criminals using these people. I

wonder if there's element in your country, and maybe senior

politicians such as yourself, that sees the migration problem as useful

leverage. You can almost threaten, blackmail, Western powers, to say

unless you help us more all of these people will leave Libya. The point

is we can't control it. It is not a threat towards the West. It is a

problem. Those people sit in Libya until they get enough money to pay

the fee to jump in those boats, where the chance of survival is very

small. They are committing crimes, causing problems, so really we are

facing the first wave of those immigrants and the problems we are

having. We've talked a lot about problems. We have to end now. He

spoke about some of the Libyans want to leave the country. You took the

decision after years in the US to come back in 2011. Are you reaching

the point where you are beginning to think it isn't working and you have

to get out? I still have hope. I came back to Libya because I was for

more than 30 years against Gaddafi and ice or a chance for Libya to

become a civilised state, a democratic state, a prosperous

country. There are many like me to do whatever it takes to bring hope

back to the people and I think there's a chance. You still have

hope? I still do. Well that's a good way to end. Dr Mustafa Abushagur,

they give very much for being on HARDtalk. Thank you. -- thank you

very much. On Wednesday we had a number

of heavy showers affecting England Thanks to this low pressure,

this area of cloud,