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We're about to see what kind of impact President Donald Trump | :00:00. | :00:16. | |
will have on the US and the world beyond. | :00:17. | :00:19. | |
Today, my focus is the international arena. | :00:20. | :00:20. | |
My guest has been close to the centre of US foreign | :00:21. | :00:23. | |
Richard Haass was a senior adviser to both Bush presidents and has | :00:24. | :00:29. | |
offered his insights to the President-elect, too. | :00:30. | :00:33. | |
From big power diplomacy, with Russia and China, to global | :00:34. | :00:35. | |
How different, how unpredictable is Trump going to be? | :00:36. | :01:11. | |
Richard Haass in New York City, welcome to HARDtalk. | :01:12. | :01:15. | |
You've just written a book with the cheery title | :01:16. | :01:19. | |
In your opinion, does the election of Donald Trump | :01:20. | :01:25. | |
to the presidency add to that sense of a world in disarray? | :01:26. | :01:35. | |
It's more the world the 45th President of the United States | :01:36. | :01:38. | |
It's the result, in part, of things the United States has done | :01:39. | :01:43. | |
It's in part simply a result of the end of the Cold War, | :01:44. | :01:49. | |
the loosening up our international relations, the rise of certain | :01:50. | :01:51. | |
Where I think he may have added it slightly, | :01:52. | :02:01. | |
Where I think he may have added to it slightly, | :02:02. | :02:04. | |
and not just him but first in the American political campaign, | :02:05. | :02:07. | |
candidates, including him, were saying things and endorsing | :02:08. | :02:13. | |
positions which, shall we say, were untraditional. | :02:14. | :02:15. | |
The fact that Senator Sanders, Secretary Clinton and Donald Trump, | :02:16. | :02:18. | |
all three rejected the major pending trade agreement, the so-called | :02:19. | :02:21. | |
that itself was a major departure from things. | :02:22. | :02:25. | |
Obviously, during the transition, some of the things he's said | :02:26. | :02:27. | |
But I would put the lion share of the explanation, if you will, | :02:28. | :02:34. | |
for the disarray he'll inherit and this daunting inbox he's | :02:35. | :02:36. | |
going to inherit more from things the United States and others have | :02:37. | :02:39. | |
Right, so what you're laying out is a proposition | :02:40. | :02:46. | |
is the preconditions are there for disarray | :02:47. | :02:49. | |
and that a US president, whoever he or she may be incoming, | :02:50. | :02:52. | |
can only do, and you just used your finger and thumb there, | :02:53. | :02:55. | |
can only do a little bit to change that sense of disarray. | :02:56. | :02:59. | |
So, to me, that is a recognition from you that actually | :03:00. | :03:02. | |
the United States of America and its commander-in-chief have much | :03:03. | :03:04. | |
less agency and leverage in the world than they used to have? | :03:05. | :03:14. | |
Perhaps, but I wouldn't drive it too far. | :03:15. | :03:20. | |
I think what we've learned is that when the United States stays | :03:21. | :03:22. | |
aloof from the world, the world is not self organising. | :03:23. | :03:26. | |
The centrifugal forces tend to get much stronger, | :03:27. | :03:30. | |
and when the United States does engage in the world, | :03:31. | :03:32. | |
we still have more capacity to act and to lead than anybody else. | :03:33. | :03:36. | |
We can't control it, we can't determine it, | :03:37. | :03:38. | |
but we can shape it more than any other single actor. | :03:39. | :03:40. | |
Let's talk a little bit about Trump, because we're going to get the big | :03:41. | :03:44. | |
picture, believe me, but it is important to tease | :03:45. | :03:46. | |
out what we've learned from the weeks of transition that | :03:47. | :03:48. | |
Donald Trump has a very particular style. | :03:49. | :03:51. | |
You're a guy who's steeped in foreign policy-making, | :03:52. | :03:53. | |
you're systems, a machines sort of guy. | :03:54. | :03:55. | |
Donald Trump doesn't seem to operate inside the machine, | :03:56. | :04:01. | |
he operates primarily through messages on Twitter. | :04:02. | :04:07. | |
Do you worry about the style that's he's bringing to Washington? | :04:08. | :04:13. | |
This wasn't exactly the style of diplomacy I studied | :04:14. | :04:18. | |
when I was a student at Oxford 40 years ago. | :04:19. | :04:20. | |
I worry that Twitter is all too easy a form of communication. | :04:21. | :04:28. | |
You've got to think once or twice before you press send. | :04:29. | :04:33. | |
I think the United States, as a country, has to think more | :04:34. | :04:36. | |
than once or twice because so many others are counting on us | :04:37. | :04:39. | |
and Twitter can be something that you, you're not doing it | :04:40. | :04:41. | |
in a careful enough way, and if others are basing their | :04:42. | :04:44. | |
security and their calculations on America, then we've | :04:45. | :04:46. | |
got to be very careful with what messages we send. | :04:47. | :04:52. | |
And it's not just about Twitter in itself, it's also about the degree | :04:53. | :04:55. | |
to which the United States' incoming president actually listens | :04:56. | :04:57. | |
There have been a few symbolic moments, if you like. | :04:58. | :05:07. | |
One was when asked on Fox News whether he was reading | :05:08. | :05:09. | |
the presidential daily brief, the intelligence brief, he said, | :05:10. | :05:12. | |
"Yeah, but only sort of reading it once a week, | :05:13. | :05:14. | |
"I don't have to be told because, you know, I'm like a smart person. | :05:15. | :05:24. | |
I don't have to be told the same thing in words every single day". | :05:25. | :05:29. | |
Again, speaking as a guy who's been inside the system, | :05:30. | :05:31. | |
that isn't really the way things have worked. | :05:32. | :05:33. | |
Do you think it's the way things should work, that a guy | :05:34. | :05:36. | |
There's that old expression, I think it was the former | :05:37. | :05:46. | |
governor of New York, that you campaign in poetry, | :05:47. | :05:49. | |
My own experience, from having worked with four presidents, | :05:50. | :05:55. | |
is when you govern, you're dealing at a level of detail that outsiders | :05:56. | :05:58. | |
I myself found the daily intelligence briefings quite | :05:59. | :06:03. | |
They actually do change quite a bit from day-to-day, | :06:04. | :06:07. | |
particularly when they give you the broader brush, | :06:08. | :06:10. | |
sets of analyses, as the CIA and others do. | :06:11. | :06:14. | |
So, to be perfectly honest, I hope that Mr Trump establishes | :06:15. | :06:17. | |
a better working relationship with the intelligence community, | :06:18. | :06:18. | |
and if he does, I think he'll actually find it to be a valuable | :06:19. | :06:22. | |
We've already seen one important episode. | :06:23. | :06:25. | |
When it came to the allegations which have emerged, which have been | :06:26. | :06:28. | |
verified as far as the US intelligence community is concerned, | :06:29. | :06:31. | |
from CIA, FBI, Director of National Intelligence, | :06:32. | :06:35. | |
all of them adamant that there is compelling proof | :06:36. | :06:41. | |
that the Kremlin authorised a hack of the Democratic National | :06:42. | :06:45. | |
Committee, because they wanted to influence the US presidential | :06:46. | :06:48. | |
Donald Trump chose to side with Putin's message, | :06:49. | :06:55. | |
rather than the message coming out of his own intelligence chiefs. | :06:56. | :06:58. | |
Now, that's something that happened, it's not something we have | :06:59. | :07:00. | |
It is, I think its raised questions about his relationship | :07:01. | :07:10. | |
Again, I'm hopeful, I'm not predicting, | :07:11. | :07:16. | |
I think it raises questions also about US policy towards Russia. | :07:17. | :07:24. | |
I would simply say that this hacking was not an exception, | :07:25. | :07:26. | |
We've seen Russia do what it did to Ukraine and Crimea | :07:27. | :07:30. | |
We saw Russian intervention in Syria, which was a war crime, | :07:31. | :07:35. | |
I would argue, by any measure and standard. | :07:36. | :07:37. | |
There's all sorts of evidence that the sort of political | :07:38. | :07:40. | |
machinations they did in the United States | :07:41. | :07:42. | |
I expect we're going to see an awful lot of that in places like Germany, | :07:43. | :07:50. | |
What we need is a comprehensive policy towards Russia that, | :07:51. | :07:54. | |
among other things, would say, you'll only get sanctions relief | :07:55. | :07:56. | |
if we see measurable changes and improvements in your behaviour. | :07:57. | :07:58. | |
I would also argue that we need to look very hard at | :07:59. | :08:01. | |
After the end of the Cold War, the United States and European | :08:02. | :08:07. | |
allies essentially stripped Nato of a lot of its military | :08:08. | :08:09. | |
and its land components, and I would think they need to be | :08:10. | :08:12. | |
reintroduced in places like the Baltic states. | :08:13. | :08:17. | |
Not so long ago you were in Trump Tower talking about, | :08:18. | :08:19. | |
I wasn't there and privy to it, but I imagine Russia came up. | :08:20. | :08:22. | |
What you've just said runs diametrically in opposition, | :08:23. | :08:24. | |
again referring to Twitter, to the opinions of Donald J Trump. | :08:25. | :08:34. | |
Quote, "I always knew he was very smart", talking of Vladimir Putin. | :08:35. | :08:39. | |
"Having a good relationship with Russia is a good | :08:40. | :08:42. | |
only stupid people or fools would think it is bad". | :08:43. | :08:46. | |
So tell me a little bit about this private conversation | :08:47. | :08:48. | |
Did you try to put him right, as far as you're concerned, on Russia? | :08:49. | :08:54. | |
In our conversations Russia actually didn't figure all that prominently, | :08:55. | :08:59. | |
it was more about developments in the Middle East, | :09:00. | :09:04. | |
It was about trade, it was about immigration. | :09:05. | :09:08. | |
We haven't spoken in the context of the hacking report | :09:09. | :09:10. | |
What I've been saying publicly on that does disagree somewhat. | :09:11. | :09:17. | |
Our goal should not be a better relationship with Russia, per se. | :09:18. | :09:23. | |
What our policy should be is we want a better relationship, | :09:24. | :09:25. | |
but only on a basis of Russian behaviour that takes | :09:26. | :09:28. | |
into account our interests and what we think are the norms | :09:29. | :09:30. | |
So we don't want to have, if you will, a cosmetically | :09:31. | :09:37. | |
improved relationship, we want to have a substantially | :09:38. | :09:42. | |
improved relationship, and that's really up to Mr Putin. | :09:43. | :09:45. | |
Yeah, well, it's sort of up to Mr Putin, but it's also up | :09:46. | :09:49. | |
For example, the degree to which in response | :09:50. | :09:55. | |
to the intelligence community's conclusions about hacking, | :09:56. | :09:59. | |
whether there's mileage in more sanctions. | :10:00. | :10:03. | |
For example, Senator John McCain and a bunch of other | :10:04. | :10:06. | |
Republican Congress people have said that they now want to seek extra | :10:07. | :10:09. | |
Sanctions are one of the possible responses. | :10:10. | :10:15. | |
I might be more interested in certain types of cyber | :10:16. | :10:17. | |
As I just mentioned, I'd be interested in strengthening | :10:18. | :10:22. | |
our military capability, both outside Ukraine | :10:23. | :10:25. | |
I'd also be more interested in providing certain types | :10:26. | :10:31. | |
of defensive military help to Ukraine. | :10:32. | :10:33. | |
There's already a lot of sanctions on Russia. | :10:34. | :10:35. | |
I'd have to be persuaded that additional sanctions would make | :10:36. | :10:37. | |
I'm not interested in symbols, I'm interested in substance | :10:38. | :10:42. | |
of things that will send a message to Mr Putin that he will receive. | :10:43. | :10:46. | |
The evidence, at least on the surface, would suggest not. | :10:47. | :10:57. | |
But again, we'll have to wait and see what he actually | :10:58. | :11:00. | |
At the moment you are an independent observer, a commentator | :11:01. | :11:04. | |
Politico, for example, which gets some stories | :11:05. | :11:09. | |
right and some wrong, said in mid-December you were one | :11:10. | :11:11. | |
of the top tips for the number two job at the State Department, | :11:12. | :11:14. | |
and that Trump was actively considering you. | :11:15. | :11:16. | |
Given everything we've discussed so far, could you conceivably work | :11:17. | :11:20. | |
Well, I think the answer is, when asked if I could work for any | :11:21. | :11:29. | |
president, and I've worked for four, you can only do it if, | :11:30. | :11:32. | |
one, you have a similar conception of the job, | :11:33. | :11:34. | |
what it actually would entail, and more important, | :11:35. | :11:35. | |
that your in sufficient alignment on the major policies. | :11:36. | :11:38. | |
You don't have to agree on everything, Stephen, | :11:39. | :11:40. | |
but you've got to agree on enough of the big things that | :11:41. | :11:42. | |
you can faithfully and effectively represent them. | :11:43. | :11:44. | |
I think in my case we would need to talk about it, because there's | :11:45. | :11:47. | |
Look, I've just come out with a new book, | :11:48. | :11:51. | |
I've written a dozen books before, so my views are not | :11:52. | :11:54. | |
It wouldn't make sense for me to be there, unless I thought | :11:55. | :12:05. | |
I could have a real chance to affect policy, to influence it | :12:06. | :12:08. | |
and that we were sufficiently in sync, so I could be an effective | :12:09. | :12:11. | |
representative of this president and this administration, | :12:12. | :12:13. | |
and those would be issues that we would have to resolve | :12:14. | :12:15. | |
to their satisfaction and to my satisfaction. | :12:16. | :12:17. | |
Let me just say, I don't know if I'm seriously | :12:18. | :12:20. | |
I don't know if I'll be asked to do anything. | :12:21. | :12:24. | |
Obviously we'd have you back if you do know that. | :12:25. | :12:27. | |
As you say, your analysis of a world in disarray seems to me to have | :12:28. | :12:31. | |
I'm going to be very shorthand about them, | :12:32. | :12:33. | |
but you say that the United States needs to be realistic | :12:34. | :12:36. | |
in its ambition, it needs to match its vision of ends | :12:37. | :12:39. | |
with means, rather than having very ambitious ends but not | :12:40. | :12:41. | |
the will and the means to enforce them. | :12:42. | :12:48. | |
I'm just wondering, let's talk about some other key areas. | :12:49. | :12:50. | |
For example, Nato, which of course I think 70% of the burden | :12:51. | :12:53. | |
for spending in Nato comes from the United States. | :12:54. | :12:56. | |
Does the United States, in your view, have an obligation | :12:57. | :12:58. | |
to maintain that level of commitment to Nato? | :12:59. | :13:02. | |
And what would happen if, according to Donald Trump | :13:03. | :13:07. | |
and some of his advisers, if the United States got much | :13:08. | :13:09. | |
tougher with allies and said if you don't front up more money, | :13:10. | :13:13. | |
I think the Europeans need to do more, not so much spend more, | :13:14. | :13:24. | |
though that would be welcome, they need to spend what they spend | :13:25. | :13:27. | |
The problem with European defence spending is not so much the level, | :13:28. | :13:31. | |
but that it's not co-ordinated, so you have tremendous areas | :13:32. | :13:33. | |
of replication and you have large areas of shortfalls. | :13:34. | :13:35. | |
But sure, I think the United States and Europe both have | :13:36. | :13:38. | |
to spend more on defence, simply because the threat | :13:39. | :13:40. | |
environment going forward is a lot more robust than we imagined it | :13:41. | :13:43. | |
You began with a larger point, and I take it, which is any time | :13:44. | :13:53. | |
in foreign policy you have a gap between your rhetoric | :13:54. | :13:56. | |
and your actual capacity, you run into trouble. | :13:57. | :13:57. | |
We've had that in the Middle East lots of times in recent years, | :13:58. | :14:01. | |
where we said certain people must go and we didn't have policies to back | :14:02. | :14:04. | |
it up, or when the Syrians used chemical weapons, | :14:05. | :14:06. | |
So I think that ought to be a lesson. | :14:07. | :14:11. | |
We've got to narrow the gap between American commitments | :14:12. | :14:13. | |
and rhetoric, and American capabilities and actions. | :14:14. | :14:18. | |
But the danger, and again I'm referring to stuff you've | :14:19. | :14:21. | |
written in the book, the danger is that at times that | :14:22. | :14:23. | |
looks like America abandons key values and principles. | :14:24. | :14:25. | |
For example, just pluck a couple of the air, | :14:26. | :14:28. | |
you're suggesting America needs to talk less loudly | :14:29. | :14:32. | |
about human rights inside China or inside Russia. | :14:33. | :14:34. | |
America needs to push less hard to expand the Nato | :14:35. | :14:38. | |
family, to countries like Georgia and Ukraine. | :14:39. | :14:43. | |
Now to some people around the world, you might call it realism, | :14:44. | :14:46. | |
In the case of a country like China, look, the priority, what we need | :14:47. | :15:02. | |
to focus on for the next couple of years is not trying | :15:03. | :15:05. | |
to make China democratic, no matter how hard we press, | :15:06. | :15:07. | |
What we can perhaps do is get China to work with us to deal | :15:08. | :15:13. | |
with the pressing North Korean nuclear ballistic missile threat. | :15:14. | :15:19. | |
In foreign policy, as in policy of any sort, you have | :15:20. | :15:21. | |
to choose your priorities where your interests are greatest | :15:22. | :15:23. | |
and your capacity to make a difference is greater. | :15:24. | :15:26. | |
In the case of Ukraine and Georgia, bringing them into Nato, | :15:27. | :15:28. | |
I would say they don't meet the qualifications. | :15:29. | :15:30. | |
In the meantime, we've got our hands full meeting the commitments | :15:31. | :15:33. | |
Going back to the guy who may or may not be your future | :15:34. | :15:37. | |
boss, Donald Trump, and the issue of China... | :15:38. | :15:44. | |
When he tweeted out that he saw no reason to be bound | :15:45. | :15:47. | |
by the One China policy, and he was absolutely thrilled | :15:48. | :15:50. | |
that the President of Taiwan had given him a phone call, | :15:51. | :15:53. | |
in your view that was not representing America's national | :15:54. | :15:56. | |
No, and I made it very clear in what I said and wrote | :15:57. | :16:04. | |
in the aftermath of those comments of his, that I thought | :16:05. | :16:08. | |
That we finessed this problem with China and Taiwan quite | :16:09. | :16:12. | |
successfully for decades, and what that has allowed us | :16:13. | :16:14. | |
to do, is to go ahead and forge a respectable | :16:15. | :16:17. | |
And by the way, it's been good for Taiwan as well. | :16:18. | :16:23. | |
It's flourished economically, it represents a democratic model | :16:24. | :16:27. | |
that's something of an alternative, to say the least, to | :16:28. | :16:30. | |
So my sense of "if it ain't broke, don't fix it", so I disagree | :16:31. | :16:34. | |
with the idea of questioning the One China policy. | :16:35. | :16:37. | |
The more we talk and the more we run round some of the key issues | :16:38. | :16:40. | |
facing the globe today, the more I'm thinking, | :16:41. | :16:42. | |
despite your caution about declaring Trump a major addition | :16:43. | :16:44. | |
to the uncertainty and disarray in the world, that's precisely what, | :16:45. | :16:47. | |
in substance, you do seem to be saying, on a whole raft of issues. | :16:48. | :16:50. | |
Well again, I never assume there is a correlation | :16:51. | :16:52. | |
between what was said during a campaign, | :16:53. | :16:54. | |
The purpose of campaigning, shockingly enough, | :16:55. | :17:07. | |
The purpose of governing is something very different. | :17:08. | :17:10. | |
But assuming I continue to be on the outside of things, | :17:11. | :17:14. | |
and I think that's a pretty good assumption, where I see areas | :17:15. | :17:17. | |
of policy I agree with, I will stand up and say fantastic, | :17:18. | :17:20. | |
and where I see policies I disagree with, I will criticise them. | :17:21. | :17:23. | |
That's been my stance during the last eight years | :17:24. | :17:25. | |
of Mr Obama, and that will be my position going forward, | :17:26. | :17:27. | |
again assuming I continue to be here at the Council on Foreign | :17:28. | :17:30. | |
I'm interested in this concept you developed, | :17:31. | :17:36. | |
correct me if I'm paraphrasing it wrongly, but this idea | :17:37. | :17:38. | |
That is the idea that nation states these days do have obligations that | :17:39. | :17:43. | |
run far beyond their own borders, in terms of collective action on key | :17:44. | :17:46. | |
issues facing the world community, whether it be trade issues, | :17:47. | :17:51. | |
global trade issues or the huge challenge of climate policy. | :17:52. | :17:55. | |
I want to know if you believe the United States, looking forward, | :17:56. | :18:09. | |
is going to be meeting its sovereign obligations? | :18:10. | :18:12. | |
This is what I think is smart and necessary. | :18:13. | :18:19. | |
Nothing stays local for long any more. | :18:20. | :18:23. | |
What goes on inside countries is no longer simply their business alone, | :18:24. | :18:26. | |
whether it's a coal burning electricity plant, whether it's | :18:27. | :18:28. | |
a virus that comes out like Zika or Ebola that can affect everybody, | :18:29. | :18:31. | |
whether it's terrorists or hackers, what we've learned | :18:32. | :18:33. | |
is nothing as local, everything's potentially global. | :18:34. | :18:36. | |
I believe this ought to become the intellectual compass, | :18:37. | :18:38. | |
so to speak, of American foreign policy and that we ought to be | :18:39. | :18:45. | |
consulting and talking with other countries, | :18:46. | :18:49. | |
and also companies and NGOs and others about how we deal | :18:50. | :18:52. | |
with this global world, in which all these challenges | :18:53. | :18:57. | |
you mention are far ahead of their responses. | :18:58. | :19:00. | |
Will the Trump administration do this? | :19:01. | :19:03. | |
The clue is in the mantra "Put America First". | :19:04. | :19:09. | |
That doesn't seem to be recognising collective obligations in the sense | :19:10. | :19:12. | |
Obviously not, but again that was a campaign slogan. | :19:13. | :19:17. | |
Whether that's a governing slogan we will have to see, | :19:18. | :19:22. | |
and even if it remains a slogan, what will it actually mean | :19:23. | :19:26. | |
For example, does the United States change the basis of its regulatory | :19:27. | :19:32. | |
framework when it comes to where we are on climate | :19:33. | :19:34. | |
Does the United States actually pull out of Paris? | :19:35. | :19:39. | |
I hope we don't pull out of Paris, indeed the Paris agreement | :19:40. | :19:42. | |
is a model of an international agreement, where countries retain | :19:43. | :19:45. | |
the ability to decide for themselves what it is they want to do or don't | :19:46. | :19:48. | |
want to do when it comes to greenhouse gas emissions, | :19:49. | :19:52. | |
and they simply pledge to do their best, but they set | :19:53. | :19:54. | |
So it is fully consistent with American sovereignty. | :19:55. | :20:01. | |
I'm hoping that the Trump administration comes | :20:02. | :20:02. | |
It's the argument I've made to people around | :20:03. | :20:10. | |
Mr Trump privately already, that people should think twice | :20:11. | :20:12. | |
before they see the Paris agreement as a problem. | :20:13. | :20:14. | |
Let me tap into your personal experience to something we touched | :20:15. | :20:17. | |
on early on in the interview, but I would like to get a direct | :20:18. | :20:20. | |
It's about the way in which people acquire policy-making powers | :20:21. | :20:26. | |
in the national security and foreign policy arena. | :20:27. | :20:29. | |
I mean, you worked at the coal face for 30 years, you served a number | :20:30. | :20:32. | |
of different presidents, you worked as an official | :20:33. | :20:34. | |
in the State Department and you took, in the end, | :20:35. | :20:37. | |
some of the top jobs in national security and state, | :20:38. | :20:39. | |
What we see in the Trump administration is a Secretary | :20:40. | :20:46. | |
of State, Rex Tillerson, who has come straight from the CEO | :20:47. | :20:49. | |
position in big business, as we know, with an oil company | :20:50. | :20:52. | |
We see a Defence Secretary who has almost literally come | :20:53. | :20:59. | |
straight out of uniform, who has not had any sort | :21:00. | :21:02. | |
We see, for example, a son-in-law of the president, | :21:03. | :21:07. | |
with absolutely no foreign policy making experience at all, | :21:08. | :21:09. | |
who is now, it seems, in a post where he is expected | :21:10. | :21:12. | |
I think in the case of the Secretary of State, nominee Rex Tillerson, | :21:13. | :21:25. | |
this is someone with an awful lot of experience around the world. | :21:26. | :21:28. | |
I'd say the same thing about General Mattis, who is going | :21:29. | :21:35. | |
The real question is whether you can get a National Security Council | :21:36. | :21:39. | |
There I think there's some grounds for concern, | :21:40. | :21:42. | |
because you have so many people with positions of power | :21:43. | :21:44. | |
You've got a president, a vice President, a chief of staff, | :21:45. | :21:51. | |
a chief strategist, a national security adviser, now you've | :21:52. | :21:53. | |
got a special adviser, so it's a lot of people. | :21:54. | :21:55. | |
The question is - how are you going to orchestrate this? | :21:56. | :21:58. | |
How are you going to make sure that the policy | :21:59. | :22:01. | |
is made in the right way, and more importantly, | :22:02. | :22:03. | |
implemented in a way that is consistent with the decisions? | :22:04. | :22:05. | |
I think that's an enormous challenge for this administration, | :22:06. | :22:07. | |
You rather diplomatically didn't address the one name I put to you, | :22:08. | :22:19. | |
that some regard as most controversial of all. | :22:20. | :22:21. | |
Mr Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner. | :22:22. | :22:28. | |
You've been around the Middle East diplomacy and peacemaking effort, | :22:29. | :22:30. | |
does it seem to you credible in any way that he should be given | :22:31. | :22:33. | |
I'd say we'll see exactly what his role is and how it fits | :22:34. | :22:40. | |
I don't know Mr Kushner, but I would simply say the idea | :22:41. | :22:47. | |
of trying to re-establish a degree of strategic trust between | :22:48. | :22:49. | |
the United States and Israel is essential and if he could help do | :22:50. | :22:52. | |
Right now you can imagine scenarios the US and Israel could face over | :22:53. | :22:58. | |
the next couple of years; the collapse of Jordan, | :22:59. | :23:00. | |
some problems with Iran, another war with Hezbollah in Lebanon. | :23:01. | :23:02. | |
So anyone who could help bring these two governments together, | :23:03. | :23:05. | |
In terms of the Israeli-Palestinian "peace process", quite honestly | :23:06. | :23:12. | |
I don't think it much matters who works on it. | :23:13. | :23:15. | |
I think the prospects for advancing that, | :23:16. | :23:16. | |
The parties are so far apart and the essential prerequisites... | :23:17. | :23:27. | |
I've been involved in Northern Ireland, | :23:28. | :23:29. | |
I've been involved in Cyprus, I've been involved in Middle East | :23:30. | :23:31. | |
peacemaking, and you've got to have protagonists that are both willing | :23:32. | :23:34. | |
and able to make serious compromises. | :23:35. | :23:38. | |
I simply don't see that between Israelis and Palestinians right now. | :23:39. | :23:41. | |
So I wouldn't think this is an area that deserves an awful lot of focus. | :23:42. | :23:45. | |
We're out of time, so it's a brief one. | :23:46. | :23:48. | |
On the eve of the Trump Presidency, are you optimistic about the next | :23:49. | :23:51. | |
four years of foreign policy-making, yes or no? | :23:52. | :23:56. | |
In a word, I am worried, given what the inheritance is. | :23:57. | :23:59. | |
I think anyone has got to be worried. | :24:00. | :24:01. | |
Richard Haass, thank you very much indeed for joining me on HARDtalk. | :24:02. | :24:03. | |
Good evening, fairly lively weather over the next few days. A week | :24:04. | :24:45. | |
weather front crossing the UK overnight, not a great deal of rain. | :24:46. | :24:50. | |
Pretty strong winds | :24:51. | :24:51. |