01/12/2011 Newsnight


01/12/2011

Similar Content

Browse content similar to 01/12/2011. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!

Transcript


LineFromTo

Will the map of Europe be redrawn by Christmas? According to George

:00:09.:00:12.

Osborne, the future of the British economy relies on the plan now

:00:12.:00:17.

being hatched in Paris and Berlin. A new treaty for a new Europe. But

:00:17.:00:21.

is anyone buying it? TRANSLATION: So, I say to you,

:00:21.:00:27.

Europe has to be rethought, rebuilt, there is an emergency. The world

:00:28.:00:35.

will not wait for Europe. Wel we will be discussing how the

:00:35.:00:39.

eurodrama will unfold, and whether this is the last chance before we

:00:39.:00:43.

go under the edge. Now we know big deficits will be

:00:43.:00:49.

with us long after the next election, how will our parties and

:00:49.:00:53.

political actors react. Tonight, we reveal how British

:00:53.:00:59.

technology, which can monitor your phone, e-mails and tweets, has been

:00:59.:01:03.

supplied to middle eastern regimes. The Syrian regime has access

:01:03.:01:09.

supplied by western companies, that enables them to follow those users

:01:09.:01:13.

and locate them and therefore arrest them.

:01:13.:01:18.

And Martin Scorsese on film, art and the politics that permeate his

:01:18.:01:25.

pictures. For me, Casino, for example, was a political film. The

:01:25.:01:29.

amount of excess, there is nothing that is never enough, until finally

:01:29.:01:39.

it explodes. Good evening. Maybe the eurozone

:01:39.:01:43.

will break up, said the governor of the Bank of England today. Maybe it

:01:43.:01:49.

will continue, but countries will default. The truth is, no-one knows.

:01:49.:01:52.

It was a particularly worrying sentiment from the governor, given

:01:52.:01:56.

the Chancellor, earlier this week, said Britain's economic future now

:01:56.:02:00.

depends on what happens across the water. Tonight in Paris, President

:02:00.:02:04.

Sarkozy began to set out yet another rescue plan. One that would

:02:04.:02:09.

involve a new treaty to overhaul and re-think Europe. But has it any

:02:09.:02:19.
:02:19.:02:22.

chance of working? Paul Mason reports.

:02:22.:02:26.

There are, technically, just nine days left to bring financial order

:02:26.:02:30.

to Europe. By the time the EU's leaders meet, a week tomorrow, they

:02:30.:02:35.

need to have some kind of little piece of paper to wave, some plan,

:02:36.:02:41.

some undertaking. But E-day is looming, and no such undertaking

:02:41.:02:45.

his been given. We did get this, though. A speech

:02:45.:02:51.

from the man who could sort it out. The credible signal is needed to

:02:51.:02:56.

give ultimate assurance over the short-term. What I believe our

:02:56.:03:02.

economic and monetary union needs is a new fiscal compact. A

:03:02.:03:07.

fundamental restatement of the fiscal rules, together with a

:03:07.:03:11.

mutual fiscal commitments. That means putting Brussels, Berlin and

:03:11.:03:15.

maybe Paris in charge of everybody else's budget, leaving eurozone

:03:15.:03:19.

voters to decide what colour ties the politicians doing their bidding

:03:19.:03:23.

will wear. Here's the problem, peripheral Europe is effectively

:03:23.:03:27.

bust, the money the rest of Europe raised to bail them out is not

:03:27.:03:32.

enough. And, the ECB could sort it by printing money and lending it,

:03:32.:03:40.

but it won't, that is the problem. And so tonight, a cunning new plan

:03:40.:03:44.

from President Sarkozy. Well not a plan, but the promise of plan on

:03:44.:03:54.
:03:54.:03:56.

Monday. It will involve treaty changes. TRANSLATION: France and

:03:56.:04:01.

Germany, after so many tragedies, decide to unite their destiny, to

:04:01.:04:06.

look towards the future together. My dear compatriots, to backtrack

:04:06.:04:10.

on this strategy would be absolutely unforgivable. Germany

:04:10.:04:14.

and France separated would result in the whole of Europe being

:04:14.:04:19.

separated and weakened. Under the emerging plan, eurocountries will

:04:19.:04:23.

hand powers to Brussels to oversee national budgets, to intervene and

:04:23.:04:28.

cancel them where needed to stay within the rules. Then, and only

:04:28.:04:32.

then, will the Germans allow the ECB to start buying the debts of

:04:33.:04:37.

the distressed south. Ultimately, that would lead to pooling Europe's

:04:37.:04:42.

debts in called eurobonds, a sticking point with the Germans up

:04:43.:04:47.

to now. In Nicolas Sarkozy's speech tonight, we have a feeling that

:04:47.:04:53.

perhaps if France is willing to go towards a new treaty, which is the

:04:54.:04:56.

word Nicolas Sarkozy used in his speech, perhaps it means that

:04:56.:05:03.

Germany is going towards the creation of eurobonds. Which today

:05:03.:05:07.

looks a something that is inevitable, at least from France.

:05:07.:05:10.

There is a credit crunch happening in Europe's banks, that creates two

:05:10.:05:15.

dangers for Britain. One, economic slowdown, because that is our

:05:15.:05:20.

export market, two, contagion, to our banks. The Bank of England

:05:20.:05:25.

revealed today that RBS is heavily exposed to bank debts in the

:05:25.:05:30.

troubled south of Europe to the tune of 30% of its core capital.

:05:30.:05:34.

Add in the exposures to the debts of troubled countries, and 83% of

:05:34.:05:38.

the core capital of Britain's big four banks is at risk. Of course,

:05:38.:05:42.

that's only a problem if there is a credit crunch. You can see signs of

:05:42.:05:46.

a credit crunch already in the euro area, I don't think that is begun

:05:46.:05:50.

yet, but you can see how it would come through here, if funding costs

:05:50.:05:54.

were to continue to be as high as they are. Now they are working on

:05:54.:05:59.

contingency plans for a eurobreak up, what kind of event are they

:05:59.:06:04.

planning for? Maybe it won't break up, maybe it will in various forms.

:06:04.:06:10.

Maybe there will be questions of default. None of us know. It is no

:06:10.:06:15.

sense to say there is a single one event in which we have to make

:06:15.:06:19.

contingencies. While those in power contemplate Armageddon, people in

:06:19.:06:23.

the high streets, here and across Europe, have to sense the gloomy

:06:23.:06:26.

atmosphere and hope for the best. The best might have to be a large

:06:26.:06:31.

amount of money. It is still possible they will come up with the

:06:31.:06:37.

called bazooka mark II, about 300 billion euros from the IMF, 250

:06:37.:06:42.

billion from the EU stability fund, and maybe 160 billion from the

:06:42.:06:45.

European Central Bank itself. Analysts believe it is this, money

:06:45.:06:49.

cobbled together from wherever you can, that has the best chance of

:06:49.:06:53.

ending the crisis. But all ending the crisis means, this time, is

:06:53.:06:57.

putting it off for a year, or maybe two.

:06:57.:07:00.

Tomorrow David Cameron heads for Paris, he has pledged to do what he

:07:01.:07:05.

can. The problem is, that's not much, except stick to the old

:07:05.:07:11.

addage, keep calm, and carry on cutting. Paul Mason, to peer

:07:11.:07:16.

through the economic gloom is Ken Rogoff, who wrote the book on debt,

:07:16.:07:19.

quoted by George Osborne, to justify his economic strategy, Lord

:07:19.:07:23.

Lamont, once Chancellor himself, of course, and by Gillian Tett of the

:07:23.:07:27.

Financial Times, who is in New York. First of all, Ken Rogoff, a hedge

:07:27.:07:32.

fund manager said, was he worried? He wasn't just worried as a hedge

:07:32.:07:36.

fund manager, he was worried as a father what was happening. We don't

:07:36.:07:40.

have to worry about his own personal finance, how long do you

:07:40.:07:45.

think Merkel and Sarkozy have got to sort this out? Let's put it this

:07:45.:07:50.

way, they can make things blow up really quickly, but I don't think

:07:50.:07:54.

they can fix things really fast. The discussion here is very, very

:07:54.:07:58.

simple, the Germans don't want to put water into a leaky bucket. It

:07:58.:08:02.

is not just a matter of having a big bazooka, it is not just a

:08:02.:08:06.

matter of having enough this time, they need a system so it doesn't

:08:06.:08:10.

just keep going. Germany is being asked, essentially, to take on a

:08:10.:08:14.

lot of debt, and open-ended guarantee, in return for handshake

:08:14.:08:22.

from the periphery of Europe. It is a very, very delicate deal. Gillian

:08:22.:08:26.

Tett, the Germans don't want to put water into leaky bucket, if it

:08:26.:08:31.

could be fibgsd that would be better, this is this super-- fixed

:08:31.:08:36.

that would be better, this is where you have this superdeal with

:08:36.:08:41.

fingers in every pie in Europe. There is a game of brinkmanship,

:08:41.:08:44.

and Angela Merkel is taking it to the brink. The key thing to

:08:44.:08:47.

understand is what the central banks did on Wednesday in terms of

:08:47.:08:51.

their joint arrangements, is really provide a breathing space for the

:08:51.:08:56.

next eight or nine days, for the eurozone leaders to get their act

:08:56.:08:59.

together. The brilliant irony is the Central Bankers around the

:08:59.:09:04.

world are in some ways quite a co- ordinated bunch, they understand

:09:04.:09:07.

each other and operate together smoothly. The problem is, it is

:09:07.:09:10.

still not clear if you have a deal on the table. There is real concern

:09:10.:09:14.

in the US, where I'm sitting, if they don't get their act together

:09:14.:09:17.

in seven days, they will have missed their last, best chance.

:09:17.:09:21.

What does it look like from your position, Lord Lamont, first of all,

:09:21.:09:23.

before we talk about David Cameron's reaction to all of this,

:09:23.:09:27.

does it looks a if a deal could be on the table? From what has been

:09:27.:09:31.

outlined in the programme, it sounds as if it is going to be more

:09:31.:09:34.

supervision of national budgets, peer group pressure, with a little

:09:34.:09:37.

bit more teeth, a bit more discipline. To be honest, I don't

:09:37.:09:41.

think that would really work, I'm rather surprised that the

:09:41.:09:45.

suggestion is, that if they can get more control of other country's

:09:45.:09:51.

budgets, the ECB would then be asked to buy the bonds of these

:09:51.:09:58.

peripheral countries. I personallyam -- personally am

:09:58.:10:01.

rather surprised Germany would accept this. Let's talk about the

:10:01.:10:05.

British response, the idea there would be a new treaty, do you think

:10:05.:10:09.

that David Cameron's position would be that in order to get this new

:10:10.:10:14.

treaty through, he would be prepared to wave it through or --

:10:15.:10:20.

wave it through, or looking for differences in Working Time

:10:20.:10:25.

Directives or is it the wrong time to make those arguments? If the

:10:25.:10:28.

provisions don't affect Britain, it would be reasonable to say we would

:10:28.:10:33.

allow them to go through. It would be ridiculous to call a referendum

:10:33.:10:38.

in Britain over something that didn't affect us. He has to

:10:38.:10:42.

absolutely ensure any new treaty changes can't, in some indirect way,

:10:42.:10:47.

be used against British interests, be used as protection. Be used to

:10:47.:10:49.

discriminate against the British financial services industry. He has

:10:49.:10:53.

to be absolutely sure about that. Obviously the financial

:10:53.:10:56.

transactions tax has to be something that, if it ever comes

:10:56.:11:00.

into existence, does not have any effect on Britain. Ken Rogoff, are

:11:00.:11:06.

you as pessimistic as Lord Lamont, as to whether this supervisory

:11:06.:11:11.

structure would actually work, nation-to-nation? I agree entirely

:11:11.:11:15.

with Lord Lamont, that it is not going to work, at least not for

:11:15.:11:19.

years and years. The Maastricht Treaty didn't really work, that was

:11:19.:11:22.

a treaty. The Maastricht Treaty the French and the Germans just

:11:22.:11:28.

violated it, they won't over the 60% rule, Tewin suited them. What

:11:28.:11:31.

they realise -- when it suited them, they realised there wasn't a lot

:11:31.:11:35.

they could do about it. There is basically a handshake, this isn't a

:11:35.:11:40.

treaty, even if it was a treaty, what are the ramifications. You

:11:40.:11:43.

really need more of a political union. It is not enough just to

:11:43.:11:46.

talk about superadvising national budgets. You have to have a

:11:46.:11:49.

Treasury that has huge taxation power, you have to transfer a lot

:11:49.:11:54.

of power to the centre, or at least lay out a road map where that will

:11:54.:11:58.

happen. Do you agree with that? There has to be something, a much

:11:58.:12:02.

bigger idea than what has been put forward just now, Gillian Tett?

:12:02.:12:05.

think the problem right now, we have been up and down this hill so

:12:05.:12:09.

many times in the eurozone in the last six months, the trust has

:12:09.:12:15.

really shattered. People, as Ken says, doesn't trust a handshake,

:12:15.:12:18.

but want tangible action. What people are looking for, in terplgs

:12:18.:12:22.

of creating a union that work -- terms of creating a union that

:12:22.:12:26.

works, is some element of fiscal union and transfers, be it joint

:12:26.:12:29.

eurobonds or something like that t will be a question of whether they

:12:29.:12:33.

can come up with something tangible that will matter in the next eight

:12:33.:12:38.

days. A giant Treasury, a big fiscal union? When Mrs Merkel uses

:12:38.:12:41.

the phrase "fiscal union", she means something completely

:12:41.:12:44.

different, she doesn't mean a European Treasury, or European

:12:44.:12:48.

minister of finance, she just means more supervision of other country's

:12:48.:12:51.

budgets, with Germany in a leading position. But, frankly, that is

:12:51.:12:55.

more or less what we have had, and when you have the criminals as the

:12:55.:13:01.

jury, you don't get very far. Inevitably, will the shape of

:13:01.:13:05.

Europe change, there will be defaults, will countries drop out

:13:05.:13:08.

of the eurozone in order to keep the northern centre holding?

:13:08.:13:12.

think we have moved into more dangerous territory, because you

:13:12.:13:16.

are now, for the first time, getting people openly talking about

:13:16.:13:21.

the shape of the eurozone altering, about individual countries dropping

:13:21.:13:27.

out, about the possibility of the whole thing imploding. This is

:13:27.:13:30.

quite unusual for people openly to be discussing this. We had that at

:13:30.:13:34.

the Cannes summit, when the for the first time, having denied Greece

:13:34.:13:38.

could ever leave the euro, people suddenly said, yes, if Greece

:13:38.:13:41.

doesn't want to abide by the rules, it may have to be chucked out.

:13:41.:13:46.

Previously they said that was unthinkable. Ken Rogoff, in your

:13:47.:13:54.

view, will there be 19 countries in the eurozone after the new year, or

:13:54.:14:03.

will we see a much smaller eurozone s that inevitable? I think it will

:14:03.:14:08.

have to get smaller before it gets bigger. I don't see how they can

:14:08.:14:13.

have a real fiscal union, more political union, without looking

:14:13.:14:17.

hard at the current membership, and realising some of the countries,

:14:17.:14:21.

Greece is the obvious one, but I think there are others, Portugal,

:14:21.:14:24.

they are really ready to be in that. What worries me about what they are

:14:24.:14:29.

doing, they seem to be making this handshake as if they don't have to

:14:29.:14:33.

make those decisions. Then it is hopeless, Italy is at least an

:14:33.:14:39.

interesting case. You might be able to keep Italy in, Greece has

:14:39.:14:43.

reached absurdity. Gillian Tett, as you said, we have been marched up

:14:44.:14:47.

and down the hill. We heard Mervyn King, hearing about the nine days

:14:47.:14:51.

ahead. Will this just be kicked forward again, or does this

:14:51.:14:59.

actually have to be the real crunch? The onus is we -- the

:14:59.:15:02.

answer is we just don't know. One of my reporters went ahead to a

:15:02.:15:05.

conference in New York, of emerging market investors from around the

:15:05.:15:08.

world. The question was asked of the audience, how many of you think

:15:08.:15:12.

the eurozone will be together, in its current form, with all 17

:15:12.:15:16.

members in a year's time, 80% of the audience said they didn't think

:15:16.:15:22.

it would hang together. That is the indication of the scepticism and

:15:22.:15:29.

cynicism in the markets. If you, from what Lord Lamont said about

:15:29.:15:33.

what Angela Merkel thinks fiscal union is, they think everyone needs

:15:33.:15:36.

to be German right now, and the rest of the world is saying it

:15:36.:15:40.

won't happen. We are in the middle of a decade of economic pain,

:15:40.:15:44.

living standards are dropping, the gulf between the rich and poor yawn,

:15:44.:15:49.

and the structural deficit, George Osborne admits, will be with us

:15:49.:15:53.

through the next election. The bombshell, how will the political

:15:53.:16:00.

debate change, and are our politicians up to the challenge? As

:16:00.:16:03.

the dust settled on the Autumn Statement, what became clear is

:16:03.:16:06.

that the Conservative attempt to demonstrate the support for women,

:16:06.:16:10.

is hardly going smoothly. It is women, overwhelmingly, who will be

:16:11.:16:16.

hit by the Chancellor's decision to snatch back �110 a year, promised

:16:16.:16:21.

to many of Britain's poorest families. How could the Liberal

:16:21.:16:27.

Democrats show themselves as distinct from the Tories, amidst

:16:27.:16:30.

the prognosis of economic doom beyond the next election. Danny

:16:30.:16:34.

Alexander said it himself on Tuesday's Newsnight. You are going

:16:34.:16:38.

into the next election, promising further billions of pounds in cuts

:16:38.:16:42.

and public spending. That is what you are going to say in your

:16:42.:16:47.

manifesto in the next election. afraid so. Senior Liberal Democrats

:16:47.:16:51.

Newsnight spoke to today, have intimated their fears for the

:16:51.:17:01.
:17:01.:17:12.

party's distinctiveness. One senior Does the public believe that Labour

:17:12.:17:16.

has a different and credible economic script? When the task of

:17:16.:17:21.

the next Government will be to curb a still large deficit. The polls

:17:21.:17:27.

suggest that people think things would be even worse under Labour.

:17:28.:17:34.

How are the politicians going to deal with this future for political

:17:34.:17:38.

insiders, I'm joined by Danny Finkelstein of the Times, and once

:17:38.:17:45.

of Conservative Central Office, Tony McNulty, and Edward hare sis

:17:45.:17:50.

former ld MP. The idea we are all in this glrb Liberal Democrat MP.

:17:50.:17:54.

The idea we are all in this together, with the Conservatives

:17:54.:17:59.

thinking about women and the idea of that, with the fewer public

:17:59.:18:02.

sector workers, the idea that violent and mental issues won't be

:18:02.:18:08.

at the fore any more. It is back to the barricades. There will be

:18:08.:18:11.

massive distributional issues making cuts of that kind. Making

:18:11.:18:14.

cuts in public spending will come from people who depend on spending

:18:14.:18:18.

more or who work in the public sector, that is very hard. For

:18:18.:18:21.

people who are Conservative modernisers it is very difficult.

:18:21.:18:25.

Isn't the problem with this, David Cameron set himself out to be the

:18:26.:18:32.

moderniser, that was the USP, and here you have it, the retrenchment

:18:32.:18:35.

again, the language doesn't sell that in any kind of positive way,

:18:35.:18:40.

does it? It is very, very difficult. The problem for all political

:18:40.:18:43.

parties, is the next election will be one in which you are not looking

:18:43.:18:47.

at how do you spend the money in the future, you are looking at how

:18:47.:18:51.

to make more cuts, how do you make a little bit less and a bit more.

:18:51.:18:55.

You have Steve Hilton not believing in climate change any more? I don't

:18:55.:19:00.

know about that. This leaves a problem for the Liberal Democrats,

:19:00.:19:05.

Evan Harris, you are tied in a sense to the Conservatives' coat

:19:05.:19:10.

tails, Danny Alexander himself said, you go into the next election with

:19:10.:19:13.

the deficit not obliterated, having to promote the same level of cuts.

:19:14.:19:17.

The problem that exists for Conservative modernisers is even

:19:17.:19:21.

greater for Liberal Democrats, that is why I think, it is quite clear

:19:21.:19:25.

when you make cuts, as most Liberal Democrats accept has to be done, as

:19:25.:19:29.

Danny said, it will affect people who use public services the most.

:19:29.:19:32.

That is why I think Liberal Democrats will now concentrate on

:19:32.:19:36.

stopping story tax cuts for better- off people, the 50p rate must stay.

:19:36.:19:43.

There must be no question of there being inheritance tax cuts, things

:19:43.:19:47.

like that will be well defined. has to be something more creative,

:19:47.:19:51.

otherwise you seem joined at the hip? There will be differenciation,

:19:51.:19:55.

more on those issues, they become even more important. How do the

:19:55.:19:57.

Liberal Democrats do that? I think actually there is a position for

:19:57.:20:01.

the Liberal Democrats, it is on distributional issues. I think the

:20:01.:20:07.

Tories will obviously try to close it down, they won't go after the

:20:07.:20:13.

50p or the in herance tax, that gives them a problem -- inheritance

:20:13.:20:16.

tax, and that gives them a problem with their base. The Liberal

:20:16.:20:19.

Democrats believe in redistribution and they can argue about the

:20:19.:20:22.

fairness of the measures and moderate them. If we are

:20:22.:20:26.

Conservative fiscal, it is in the coalition, it is not in the next

:20:26.:20:31.

manifest at the moment that is why I think Danny Alexander did get it

:20:31.:20:41.
:20:41.:20:42.

wrong. If you say your people are in the public sector, will you get

:20:42.:20:47.

the vote next time round with this platform? Danny Alexander nor Nick

:20:47.:20:52.

Clegg writes the manifesto, you can call them the architect, he was

:20:52.:20:56.

chairman of the body that wrote it, he didn't win many of those battles.

:20:56.:21:00.

What I have been told today, and you said this in the introduction,

:21:00.:21:02.

rightly, when he said the Liberal Democrats would go into the

:21:03.:21:07.

election with, not just more cuts set out, which may be the case, but

:21:07.:21:10.

a specific agreed cuts with another party. That is not going to happen,

:21:10.:21:16.

because we are committed to being independent of the other parties.

:21:16.:21:19.

Let's talk about that with Tony McNulty, you are independent of

:21:19.:21:24.

both parties. Can we see a position, or would it just be so beyond the

:21:24.:21:27.

pale, that Labour could do a deal with the Liberal Democrats? I think

:21:27.:21:32.

this week has been seismic in terms of politics for some of the reasons

:21:32.:21:36.

suggested. The notion that the next election, whatever the outcome, if

:21:36.:21:45.

it is not a majority Labour Government, that we do deals with

:21:45.:21:52.

Huhne and others that is gone. That is a question for the Liberal

:21:52.:21:58.

Democrats. They are getting rid of four of their beasts? Let's see if

:21:58.:22:04.

they get four seats. What about the Labour Party? We have to put

:22:04.:22:10.

ourselves in the polls. The redistribution we have seen that

:22:10.:22:14.

the liberals are endorsed have been from the poorest to the richest.

:22:14.:22:18.

The new cuts announced have been much more severe on the bottom

:22:18.:22:22.

percentage than higher. Labour has some flexibility. I don't think the

:22:22.:22:26.

Liberal Democrats have, you can't issue a red book with an as tricks

:22:26.:22:36.
:22:36.:22:37.

that said only subject to the agreement of the Liberal Democrats,

:22:37.:22:41.

The Labour Party has a degree of flexibility, you still have to

:22:41.:22:44.

commit to vast cuts and explain, roughly speaking, where they come

:22:44.:22:47.

from. There may be some flexibility for slowing down the cuts, at that

:22:47.:22:52.

point, you won't be able to cancel them all. You will have to fight

:22:52.:22:59.

that on the election. How will Labour get its credibility back,

:22:59.:23:06.

will Ed Balls say slash, cut, slash, cut? They have to say it now, not

:23:06.:23:10.

six months down the road towards the next election. The policy of

:23:10.:23:15.

Labour has not to come forward with the big decisions because they see

:23:15.:23:19.

it as foolish? They don't have to go into the detail, Cameron learned

:23:19.:23:23.

that from the last election. They must get to stage where Labour's

:23:23.:23:28.

economic narrative become as real one. Part of that is challenging

:23:28.:23:33.

the analysis so far. David Miliband started that last night with a good

:23:33.:23:38.

speech. With the Labour Party needs to recover, it is almost as

:23:38.:23:42.

tempting as being tribunal and saying we don't do a -- tribal and

:23:42.:23:46.

saying we don't do a deal. Let him speak? You have this problem, there

:23:46.:23:49.

are plenty of people in the Labour Party who think if the economy

:23:49.:23:53.

tanks or doesn't improve or flatlines Labour won't need to

:23:53.:23:58.

regain credibility. That is tempting, just as it is tempting to

:23:58.:24:01.

personalise politics and say whatever the merits after the next

:24:01.:24:05.

election of getting power, we are not going to deal with individuals,

:24:05.:24:08.

I don't think your leader take that is same view.

:24:08.:24:12.

What I think we are missing a big point, that is all the parties are

:24:12.:24:16.

going to face something that nobody has faced in this country ever,

:24:16.:24:20.

that is we simply not going to be able to afford the state, in the

:24:20.:24:24.

way that we have been able to afford it in the past. We are all

:24:24.:24:27.

going to have to propose new ways of doing things, on a very grand

:24:27.:24:30.

scale. What we have learned is the economy is far less wealthy. So

:24:30.:24:34.

this changes not just this kind of politics, the politics we have

:24:34.:24:37.

talked about, but much more fundamental things. I think there

:24:37.:24:42.

is room for the superrich to pay more, that might well be a dividing

:24:42.:24:44.

line. I'm not convinced that those in the Liberal Democrats will take

:24:44.:24:49.

that view and win out. That will be a battle. We will want to

:24:49.:24:52.

differentiate ourselves, even more than we have in the past. And I

:24:52.:24:57.

don't accept this idea that the red book writes the manifesto, that is

:24:57.:25:00.

absolutely wrong. I don't think Nick Clegg agreed with what Danny

:25:00.:25:04.

Alexander said on this programme. We can explore this, even further

:25:04.:25:08.

in weeks to come and months to come. If everybody is going to be

:25:08.:25:12.

batoning down the hatchs in the economy and there is no room for

:25:12.:25:15.

manoeuvre. In what way does politics play out, what do people

:25:15.:25:18.

want from politicians they are not getting now? First of all, everyone

:25:18.:25:22.

knows the situation is very, very grim. They don't expect politicians

:25:22.:25:26.

to solve the problems immediately, but they do expect some hope at the

:25:26.:25:30.

end of the day. The problem will be, not what politicians say, but

:25:30.:25:34.

simply the actual reduction in people's real living standards, for

:25:34.:25:37.

people who don't earn very much. That will be very difficult for the

:25:37.:25:41.

Government. The problem for Labour is, it weakens them because they

:25:41.:25:45.

will fight an election where their narrative is let's borrow some more

:25:45.:25:51.

in order to borrow less. Such an unconvincing line that nobody will

:25:51.:25:55.

believe. The line is to let's borrow more as a result of failure,

:25:55.:25:59.

that can't be right either. Syria is now in state of civil war, a UN

:25:59.:26:04.

official said today, it is estimated more than 4,000 people

:26:04.:26:09.

have been killed by pro-Government forces since March, who is

:26:09.:26:12.

supplying President Assad and other repressive regimes with the

:26:12.:26:16.

technology to hunt down the dissenters. An investigation by

:26:16.:26:18.

Newsnight and the Bureau of Investigative Journalism, has found

:26:18.:26:22.

a British company, based in Oxfordshire, has been implicated in

:26:22.:26:26.

the sale of state-of-the-art technology to Syria. It is not the

:26:26.:26:31.

only British company with a role in allowing despotic regimes to access

:26:31.:26:39.

technologies to help them spy on their sit ens.

:26:39.:26:47.

-- citizens. The Arab Spring, Egypt, Libya, now Syria. Popular uprisings,

:26:47.:26:52.

fuelled by new technology. Co- ordinated using mobile phones, the

:26:52.:27:00.

Internet, texts and tweets. These pictures captured last week

:27:00.:27:06.

from Syria, spread around the globe, on the World Wide Web. But now, the

:27:06.:27:10.

very technologies that helped spark these revolutions are being used to

:27:10.:27:18.

crush them. Technology of this kind can be every bit as lethal as the

:27:18.:27:20.

bullets directly sold by a munitions company, or armments

:27:20.:27:30.

quartermastre. Brighton beach, on the Sussex coast,

:27:30.:27:35.

an unlikely venue to host a hub of dissent. But the current Syrian

:27:35.:27:39.

popular uprising is organised on an international scale. Here in

:27:39.:27:48.

Brighton, mam mam plays his party. The Arab Spring has turned into

:27:48.:27:53.

winter in Syria, we have 20,000 people in prison, 4,500 people are

:27:53.:27:58.

dead and people are struggling on daily basis. He has no permanent

:27:58.:28:04.

address. He flits from place-to- place, using friends' address,

:28:04.:28:08.

using their internet connections, laptops and computers, fearful he's

:28:08.:28:11.

being monitored by the Syrian Security Services, here on British

:28:11.:28:19.

soil. He maintains daily contact with

:28:19.:28:23.

friends and colleagues, in Syria. Helping to desem raitate

:28:23.:28:27.

information about developments in - - deseminate information about

:28:27.:28:31.

developments in his country. And such has been their success, that

:28:31.:28:35.

even the cyberactivists, operating behind closed doors, those

:28:35.:28:37.

uploading images of the demonstrations, are now being

:28:37.:28:42.

targeted too. The people who are usually using

:28:42.:28:48.

the Internet to communicate with us are at more risk being arrested by

:28:48.:28:52.

the regime than people on the streets. This is because we believe

:28:53.:28:57.

that the Syrian regime, and we have evidence for that, that the Syrian

:28:58.:29:01.

regime has access to software supplied by western countries, that

:29:01.:29:07.

enables them to follow those users, and locate them. How many people do

:29:07.:29:14.

you personally know of who have been actively targeted by the

:29:14.:29:22.

state? Since May, and early July, I know of about 40-50 people, I went

:29:22.:29:26.

to school with when I was back in Syria, they have been arrested and

:29:26.:29:30.

we believe they have been arrested as a result of the new technology

:29:30.:29:35.

and software that the Syrian regime is using to target activists.

:29:35.:29:39.

Newsnight has learned that Syria has been provided with technology,

:29:39.:29:46.

produced by the British-owned company, Sophos. This is its sales

:29:46.:29:52.

pitch. Access to retain telecomdata, has become an important tool for

:29:52.:29:57.

law enforcement and Intelligence Services in their fight against

:29:57.:30:03.

Toryism. We asked Sophos for -- Terrorism. We asked Sophos for an

:30:03.:30:07.

interview. They confirmed that it supplied technology to an Italian

:30:07.:30:14.

company last year, they knew it was part of a bigger contract with

:30:14.:30:20.

Syria. We don't monitor data, that is done within the

:30:20.:30:23.

telecommunications software. The software is designed so when data

:30:23.:30:27.

is requested by police forces can be safely be passed to the police

:30:27.:30:32.

force. But you are selling it to nation states?, you are providing

:30:32.:30:36.

it to nation states where the police force don't have a

:30:36.:30:40.

particularly good track record, if we look at Syria there are problems

:30:40.:30:45.

for many years? As a company we ensure, whoever we sell to, we

:30:45.:30:51.

ensure we follow EU regulations and guidelines. Our customers are

:30:51.:30:53.

telecommunications companies. say you follow the letter of the

:30:53.:30:58.

law, isn't there a moral responsibility? Yeah, when we see

:30:58.:31:04.

situations like Syria, absolutely, we are concerned, and we will take

:31:04.:31:07.

further steps, the moral responsibility. We don't have the

:31:07.:31:12.

benefit of hindsight to look back and remove our software where it

:31:13.:31:21.

has been sold. Steve Mumford admits Sophos doesn't know if its product

:31:21.:31:25.

has been sold to other authoritarian regimes. We showed

:31:25.:31:32.

him the interview with Mahmood. have evidence that the Syrian

:31:32.:31:37.

regime has access to software supplied by western companies, that

:31:37.:31:42.

enables them to follow those users and locate them. Will you think

:31:42.:31:48.

hard about who you supply in the future? First of all, I think, from

:31:48.:31:53.

what I hear on this report, none of our software would be involved in

:31:53.:31:56.

that. You would not need our software to do the tracking down

:31:57.:32:04.

and the finding of people. Secondly, absolutely, when we see activities

:32:04.:32:08.

like this, we absolutely will stop doing business with anyone

:32:08.:32:12.

contributing to this. He agreed there was a need for tighter

:32:12.:32:20.

regulation of the industry. industry which now sells equipment

:32:20.:32:25.

to dictators and democracies alike. Today WikiLeaks, in conjunction

:32:25.:32:29.

with Privacy International, launched a database detailing the

:32:29.:32:34.

scale of the electronics surveillance industry. It is worth

:32:34.:32:37.

surveillance industry. It is worth more than 3 billion a year, with

:32:37.:32:43.

more than 160 companies in 25 countries. Most pariah states don't

:32:43.:32:48.

have the technology base to develop good surveillance software. The

:32:48.:32:50.

Chinese can, I would be very surprised if countries like Syria

:32:50.:32:54.

could. If you are the secret police in Syria, you are naturally going

:32:55.:32:58.

to buy your surveillance software from Britain or France, or America

:32:58.:33:05.

or Italy or wherever you can get it. It is not that hard to find. This

:33:05.:33:09.

is the Milipol International Trade Fair held in Paris a few weeks ago.

:33:09.:33:15.

We went along. Amid the sniper rifles, machine guns, weapons and

:33:15.:33:19.

military hardware up for sale. An entire section was devoted to

:33:19.:33:23.

surveillance. I spoke with one salesman, I asked him if he was at

:33:23.:33:27.

all concerned about how his company's technology might be used

:33:27.:33:32.

by certain regimes. This is a direct quote. "We have no control

:33:32.:33:36.

over what they will do, targeting, we can't have any control on that,

:33:36.:33:40.

the person who may be bad for you, may not be bad for me. So we can't

:33:40.:33:44.

judge that. We're just providing the technology for finding people

:33:44.:33:51.

who are of concern to a particular nation." We reject the view that

:33:51.:33:54.

Government's oppression of the internet, phone networks and social

:33:54.:33:58.

media at times of unrest is acceptable. Britain will always be

:33:58.:34:03.

on the side of people aspiring for political and economic freedom. In

:34:03.:34:09.

the Middle East and around the world. Laudible sentiments from

:34:09.:34:15.

Foreign Secretary, William Hague, but actions speak louder than words.

:34:15.:34:18.

Newsnight, and the Bureau of Investigative Journalism, have been

:34:18.:34:21.

looking at the role of UK-based companies, exporting state-of-the-

:34:21.:34:27.

art technology, which can be put to use by questionable regimes.

:34:27.:34:31.

ThorpeGlen, Suffolk, said to have sold tracking and monitoring

:34:31.:34:39.

technology to Indonesia. Gamma Group, Andover Hampshire, via a

:34:39.:34:43.

third party, offered monitoring technology to President Mubarak's

:34:43.:34:47.

regime in Egypt. Hidden Technology Systems Limited, Essex, sold

:34:47.:34:51.

tracking devices to Saudi Arabia, who, it says, wanted to buy the

:34:51.:35:00.

best of British. And, Creativity Software, Kingston upon Thames,

:35:00.:35:07.

Surrey, sold tracking technology to a mobile phone tracking network in

:35:07.:35:13.

Iran. It is this involvement with Iran that has prompted concern from

:35:13.:35:17.

leading politicians. The crossbench peer Lord Alton has asked dozens of

:35:18.:35:22.

questions in the House of Lords. He cites the case of an Iranian

:35:22.:35:26.

journalist tortured in jail. He was subjected not only to physical

:35:26.:35:30.

abuse, but they detailed all of the conversation that is he had, and

:35:30.:35:34.

they were able to say whom he had met as a result of using technology

:35:34.:35:37.

which had been sold to the Iranian regime. My concern is, that it is

:35:37.:35:40.

not just Iran, but throughout the whole of the region, that we have

:35:40.:35:44.

been aiding and abetting, the very despots that democracy activists

:35:45.:35:49.

and human rights campaigners have been trying to replace through the

:35:49.:35:54.

Arab Spring. The details of Creativity Software's deal with

:35:54.:35:58.

Iran are not known. Through Lord Alton's persistent questioning, it

:35:58.:36:04.

has emerged it had a stamp of approval through GCHQ. I find it

:36:04.:36:07.

really extraordinary that in many to a question I tabled, that the

:36:07.:36:12.

Government have conceded that an agency, operating out of GCHQ, held

:36:12.:36:17.

a meeting with Creativity Software, and they discussed the dual

:36:17.:36:21.

application of this technology, and then nothing at all was done to

:36:21.:36:26.

deter the export of technology, that could be used to abuse humam

:36:26.:36:30.

rights activists, to arrest democracy activists and to lead to

:36:30.:36:34.

people being tortured in Iranian prisons. We contacted all of the

:36:34.:36:39.

companies named in our investigation. Creativity Software,

:36:39.:36:46.

confirmed its commercial engagments started in 200 9, it says it wasn't

:36:46.:36:51.

deployed until 2011. It says any connection with alleged human

:36:51.:36:57.

rights abuses is clearly erroneous. Hidden Technology, confirmed is

:36:57.:37:01.

supplied tracking technology to Saudi Arabia. ThorpeGlen, we made

:37:01.:37:07.

repeated requests for comments, it is yet to reply. Gamma Group, it

:37:07.:37:10.

said in statement that it did not supply a specific tracking

:37:10.:37:16.

technology to Egypt. Sophos say the deal with Syria has

:37:16.:37:22.

now been terminated. It and its Italian business partner said the

:37:22.:37:27.

system was installed but not operational. As the protests in

:37:27.:37:31.

Syria continue, cyberactivists are looking at new ways to avoid

:37:31.:37:35.

detection, fully aware that a growing number of western companies

:37:35.:37:38.

are successfully selling monitoring and tracking technology to whoever

:37:38.:37:43.

is prepared to pay. No Government minister was

:37:43.:37:46.

available to speak to us about the sale of British technology abroad.

:37:47.:37:56.
:37:57.:38:25.

Machismo, religion, redemption, Martin Scorsese's films from Taxi

:38:25.:38:28.

Driver, Mean Streets and Raging Bull, have shed light on all the

:38:28.:38:33.

darkest places, now he has come out with Hugo, a family film, and a

:38:33.:38:38.

celebration of moving pictures in 3D, no less, this week Scorcese was

:38:38.:38:42.

in London and met Peter Marshall to talk about movies, music, in what

:38:42.:38:46.

he considers to be his major political work, you may be

:38:47.:38:51.

surprised by his answer. The master on set and in his

:38:51.:38:55.

element. Martin Scorsese's first family film, Hugo, honours the

:38:55.:38:59.

history of cinema itself. With a British cast, homage is paid to the

:38:59.:39:03.

pioneers that brought, what the director calls, the magic, into his

:39:03.:39:10.

life. The first thing that came to mind, or the feeling, was being

:39:10.:39:15.

always, more or less, streeted as an invalid as a child, because of

:39:15.:39:19.

the asthma I had for so many years. You had asthma? Yes, from the age

:39:19.:39:25.

of three on. Being kept away from sports, nature, anything green, and

:39:25.:39:31.

certainly animals, and no running, no hysterical laughter, and so I

:39:31.:39:34.

was in the movie theatres a lot. Whatever I couldn't do or be a part

:39:34.:39:40.

of, in the life around me, some how in the imagination, and in the

:39:40.:39:46.

spirit of the cinema, I experienced it. I shared it with my father,

:39:46.:39:52.

mainly, in the early days. The message from Hugo, in ultra

:39:52.:39:57.

modern 3D is for getting the past only kills the present. Kingsley is

:39:57.:40:02.

the great director, now reduced to running a toy shop, his film work

:40:02.:40:05.

disregarded, as the movies have moved on. History, says Scorcese,

:40:05.:40:13.

is the key to understanding. are a human encliek peedia! I saw,

:40:13.:40:17.

I was able to see many of these films at the time, when I was home

:40:17.:40:20.

alone, waiting for my parents to come back from work, there was a

:40:20.:40:26.

television set. Jean Cocteau, the basic American films and British

:40:26.:40:33.

films. The British cinema is a very important to me from 1945 on.

:40:33.:40:38.

Scorcese's own place in film history is assured. From Taxi

:40:38.:40:47.

Driver to Raging Bull, and then, into the new century, an Oscar for

:40:47.:40:53.

The Departed, these days his music documentaries are matching the

:40:53.:40:57.

success. If I had the ability to compose and play music, that is

:40:57.:41:01.

where I would have found myself, in a sense, expressing myself. I think

:41:01.:41:05.

music in its basic form is a pure form. You bring them together and

:41:05.:41:09.

make them work together in way which seems to enhance both? Film

:41:09.:41:14.

to me is very musical. A film without music is very musical,

:41:14.:41:19.

because of the rhythm of the cuts and how you proceed, the pacing of

:41:19.:41:23.

the picture. The pace of the film and how the audience reacts, I

:41:23.:41:29.

should say, camera moves, obviously a musical. The rhythm of motion in

:41:29.:41:38.

a way. So, for me, music is part of your blood, in a way, it has to be

:41:38.:41:41.

so much part of your life. My brother played guitar, my father

:41:41.:41:45.

used to be able to. I was never able to. You have fairly Catholic

:41:45.:41:53.

tastes as well? I think so, yes. We're New Yorkers, and you know,

:41:54.:41:59.

working-class people, radio playing all the time, whether it was opera,

:41:59.:42:03.

or swing music, or whether it was American or British swing, some

:42:03.:42:13.

jazz, of course. Dylan's music in No Direction Home,

:42:13.:42:18.

was punched up to startling effect. With George Harrison's Living In A

:42:18.:42:23.

Material World, he has repeated the trick. Scorcese enjoys music with a

:42:23.:42:29.

wallop, he loved punk. # He's in love with rock'n'roll.

:42:29.:42:34.

There was a freshness to it, because it had, direct, it had

:42:34.:42:38.

something to say, they weren't going to be stopped. Somebody told

:42:38.:42:48.
:42:48.:42:48.

me family member made meat balls for the clash? My mother. Your mum

:42:49.:42:54.

and Joe Strummer? I know Joe, and the manager, and a young lady named

:42:54.:43:00.

Pearl Harbour, yes. And we had some good Italian dinners, we used to

:43:00.:43:04.

cook every Sunday, my mother would come. She would say I'm sure all

:43:04.:43:08.

the buys would come, she would hold and hug -- these boys would come,

:43:08.:43:13.

she would hold them and hug them. Punks for lunch? They were very

:43:13.:43:17.

sweet. As far back as I would remember, I always wanted to be a

:43:17.:43:23.

gangster. Scorcese's best known for his gangster films like Goodfellas,

:43:23.:43:27.

rarely stinting on the body count. But the director said one of his

:43:27.:43:32.

hardest hitting, Casino, was more than anything, a political story.

:43:32.:43:36.

The crash we all now endure, he says he put on screen two decades

:43:36.:43:45.

ago. For me it has to be in the microcosim, in way, for me, Casino,

:43:45.:43:50.

for example, was a very political film. In the sense that in the

:43:50.:43:57.

opening image you have Robert De Niro walk out on the screen, in a

:43:57.:44:01.

salmon-coloured sports coat, white slacks, and patent leather shoes,

:44:01.:44:06.

gets into this Cadillac, turns the key and the car blows up. It is a

:44:06.:44:11.

true story. The amount of excess, the amount of never, there is

:44:11.:44:19.

nothing that is ever enough, until finally it explodes.

:44:19.:44:26.

This was in 1995. It was a concern of mine that, and that is one of

:44:26.:44:30.

the reasons of making the George Harrison film, Harrison pointed it

:44:30.:44:35.

out, he had everything at the age of 19, 21, but there has to be more,

:44:35.:44:40.

there has to be more to being alive. It was like how much more do we

:44:40.:44:45.

need of this. Look at this, they are tearing down the old Vegas,

:44:45.:44:49.

where it was like an old western, where you would have gun fighters

:44:49.:44:54.

or gamblers coming in, they would gamble, that is what they do, they

:44:54.:45:00.

gamble. Here, and the new Vegas, by the end of that film, it is a Vegas

:45:00.:45:05.

where they bring the family, because we have theme parks for

:45:05.:45:07.

them outside, while you are gambling away the money, for us,

:45:07.:45:13.

because you are not going to win it, we will keep it. It is purely evil.

:45:13.:45:17.

Martin Scorsese, tomorrow morning's front pages, beginning with the

:45:17.:45:22.

Financial Times, Mario Draghi, the petd of the ECB hints at eurozone

:45:22.:45:32.
:45:32.:45:58.

Unison have offered Jeremy Clarkson a day to be care worker, it seems

:45:58.:46:08.

like great idea. Today marks the start of the

:46:08.:46:12.

Australian summer, celebrated on Bondi beach by some night surfing.

:46:12.:46:22.
:46:22.:46:42.

# Night swimming # Your photograph on the dashboard

:46:42.:46:52.
:46:52.:46:56.

Hi there. Good evening. It will turn out to be a cold night, clear

:46:56.:47:00.

and starry skies, widespread frost will develop, especially into the

:47:00.:47:03.

countryside. A chilly start to Friday morning, patches of ice

:47:03.:47:07.

around, with overnight showers. As we go through Friday, most places

:47:07.:47:10.

will have decent sunshine, it will tend to turn cloudy from the west

:47:10.:47:15.

as we go through the afternoon. Eastern England having decent

:47:15.:47:19.

sunshine, temperatures up to eight degrees. As we travel further

:47:19.:47:22.

westwards, here we will notice the freshening south-westerly breeze,

:47:22.:47:28.

the cloud will thicken up, and eventually outbreaks of rain moving

:47:28.:47:32.

in. Cloudier in the morning, outbreaks of rain pushing into

:47:32.:47:37.

western coastal counties, across the hills, damp weather for the

:47:37.:47:43.

Isle of Man. Cold night, with cloud coming over the top forp for

:47:43.:47:49.

Northern Ireland, temperatures four or five. Turpblg -- turning to snow

:47:49.:47:52.

across the Scottish mountains. Through Friday and Saturday, we

:47:52.:47:56.

lose the outbreaks of rain, it should be dryer generally across

:47:56.:47:59.

England and Wales through the weekend. The exception is across

:47:59.:48:03.

southern parts on Saturday. We will see outbreaks of rain, for example,

:48:03.:48:06.

in London, that should clear fairly quickly. The rain clears away from

:48:06.:48:09.

the far south of England and Wales. During Saturday morning, most

:48:10.:48:13.

Download Subtitles

SRT

ASS