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It's not what you would call a ringing endorsement, but Barack | :00:13. | :00:16. | |
Obama's election machine delivered the required results, so he stays | :00:16. | :00:21. | |
in the White House, and so gets to face this country's awful economic | :00:21. | :00:25. | |
crisis, while Mitt Romney gets to spend more time with his money, and | :00:25. | :00:33. | |
his magic underpants. It may look like more of the same. | :00:33. | :00:38. | |
And tonight, despite all the hardship we have been through, | :00:38. | :00:44. | |
despite all the frustrations of Washington, I have never been more | :00:45. | :00:49. | |
hopeful about our stpurture. There is -- Future. There is hard | :00:49. | :00:54. | |
business to attend to and urgently. Mitt Romney was gracious in defeat. | :00:54. | :00:59. | |
At a time like this we can't risk partisan bickering and political | :00:59. | :01:03. | |
posturing, our leaders have to reach across the ail to do the | :01:03. | :01:10. | |
people's work. But his failure -- Aisle to do the people's work. | :01:10. | :01:16. | |
his defeat leaves the right wondering what can they get people | :01:16. | :01:22. | |
to buy into. They have to empower people. They have to find a way to | :01:22. | :01:27. | |
make conservative principles more attractive to that demographic. | :01:27. | :01:31. | |
Among our guest, Clark Judge, speechwriter for Republican | :01:31. | :01:35. | |
Presidents in the past. And a Dean, who once thought he was the best | :01:35. | :01:44. | |
Democratic hope for the White House at one time. | :01:44. | :01:49. | |
At first glance, a visitor from outer space might wonder what all | :01:49. | :01:54. | |
the fuss is about, $6 billion spent, and same bloke is in the White | :01:54. | :01:58. | |
House and the country is still $16 trillion in debt. The Republican | :01:58. | :02:01. | |
challenge for the presidency failed and while a couple of men with | :02:01. | :02:05. | |
crackpot views on rape also failed to get elected today Congress, the | :02:05. | :02:09. | |
political complex of the legislature has hardly change -- | :02:09. | :02:16. | |
complexion, of the legislature has hardly changed. We have a sumry | :02:16. | :02:21. | |
first up, a pretty well-managed campaign by Obama, it delivered? | :02:21. | :02:24. | |
Very well managed, strategyy targeted and often quite negative | :02:24. | :02:27. | |
in the stone. The difference between the popular vote between | :02:27. | :02:32. | |
the two men, around about 1%. The difference in the Electoral College, | :02:32. | :02:38. | |
more like 33%, 34%. They went to the battleground states, they | :02:38. | :02:42. | |
blitzed the ad, two or three-times as many as Mitt Romney's people. | :02:42. | :02:47. | |
They fought the perception that on the economy was weak, instead | :02:47. | :02:52. | |
turning it negative, running ads about Mitt Romney firing people | :02:52. | :02:57. | |
when he was running Bain Capital, to the point where one comedian | :02:57. | :03:03. | |
said, he looks like the guy who fired your dad. What do we make of | :03:03. | :03:06. | |
America from this election? A great deal about division, polarisation, | :03:07. | :03:12. | |
the way the electorate divides into different cohorts. You mentioned | :03:12. | :03:18. | |
the Senate race, the issue of rape cost those two Senors their jobs. | :03:18. | :03:21. | |
And derailed Republican' tempts to take control of the Senate. The | :03:21. | :03:27. | |
house of rep -- attempts to take control of the Senate. The house of | :03:27. | :03:30. | |
representatives still showing the views that proved so threaten to go | :03:30. | :03:34. | |
President Obama, and trouble ahead. For the moment people are still | :03:34. | :03:40. | |
focusing on the momentous events of last night. | :03:40. | :03:44. | |
Barack Obama's first term may have disappointed many Americans. But | :03:44. | :03:49. | |
you would hardly have known it. His campaign workers in Chicago, had | :03:49. | :03:54. | |
laid on a particularer tape welcome for a moment of crowning triumph. | :03:55. | :03:59. | |
Re-election, vindication, and a powerful lesson in America's new | :03:59. | :04:04. | |
electoral politics. We are not as divided as our | :04:04. | :04:07. | |
politics suggests. We're not as cynical as the pundits believe. We | :04:08. | :04:13. | |
are greater than the sum of our individual ambitions, and we remain | :04:13. | :04:19. | |
more than a collection of red states and blue state, we are and | :04:19. | :04:23. | |
forever will be the United States of America. | :04:23. | :04:26. | |
Battleground states proved decisive again, and never mind shares of the | :04:26. | :04:31. | |
national vote. Mitt Romney had to win most of them. Ohio, Virginia, | :04:31. | :04:37. | |
Wisconsin, Colorado, Iowa and New Hampshire, all went for Obama | :04:37. | :04:41. | |
instead. Only North Carolina and Indiana chose the Republican | :04:41. | :04:45. | |
candidate. Florida, that other key battleground remains too close to | :04:45. | :04:53. | |
call, but it is clear that the Democrats targetsed -- targeted the | :04:53. | :04:59. | |
swing states and ran a superb campaign. They had a tremendous | :04:59. | :05:02. | |
volunteer turnout, they used technology in smart ways. If you | :05:02. | :05:06. | |
were on Facebook yesterday, and signed into their app, every ten | :05:06. | :05:09. | |
minutes, for most of the afternoon and evening, it would recommend a | :05:09. | :05:12. | |
new set of people they wanted you to go and talk to in that swing | :05:12. | :05:17. | |
state. Remind your friends to do this or that. That targeting of | :05:17. | :05:23. | |
people, that sort of getting in people's, getting people to focus | :05:23. | :05:27. | |
on reaching out to their friend, is really the critical thing. But they | :05:27. | :05:31. | |
organised it all, in a very efficient way. At polling stations | :05:31. | :05:36. | |
in Virginia, yesterday, our random survey confirmed this country's | :05:36. | :05:40. | |
shifting electoral dynamics. The Republicans seemed too much like a | :05:41. | :05:44. | |
party of angry white men, the Democrats had tailored their | :05:45. | :05:49. | |
message better to women and ethnic minorities. At the end of the day, | :05:49. | :05:54. | |
you have to draw the line down the centre of the paper and write | :05:54. | :05:57. | |
what's good about this one and what is good about the other one, Obama | :05:57. | :06:01. | |
had the longer list of good things. Four more years, that is definitely | :06:01. | :06:06. | |
what I'm looking for, I'm so excited, thank you, Obama! | :06:06. | :06:11. | |
The ethnic vote is increasingly important. Black voters were a key | :06:11. | :06:16. | |
constituency for Barack Obama, in states like Virginia, where they | :06:16. | :06:21. | |
represent 20% of the population, and 93% of them voted Obama. But | :06:21. | :06:26. | |
the Hispanic vote is growing faster, and voting more Democrat, for | :06:26. | :06:31. | |
example, in the Colorado battleground, 74% of Latinos voted | :06:31. | :06:39. | |
Obama, up from 61% last time. So he won, despite the white vote | :06:39. | :06:45. | |
increasing for Mitt Romney. And the demographic trends are visible even | :06:45. | :06:51. | |
between elections. Ohio contained 4% fewer white voters than in 2008, | :06:51. | :06:57. | |
and 4% more black ones. What you saw for the first time in 30 years, | :06:57. | :07:01. | |
yesterday, was a set of social issues, the women's issues and gay | :07:01. | :07:07. | |
rights, actually helping Democrats. In presidential election after | :07:07. | :07:13. | |
election, going back to 1984, social issues like abortion, and | :07:13. | :07:18. | |
crime and welfare, and gay marriage, have been used as bludgeons to | :07:18. | :07:21. | |
attack Democrat. But as attitudes have changed, as the population has | :07:22. | :07:25. | |
shifted, there has been an enormous change in the way people view, for | :07:25. | :07:30. | |
example, the rights of gays and lesbian, that has had a huge impact | :07:30. | :07:35. | |
on electoral politics too, that will probably continue. | :07:35. | :07:40. | |
As the night wore on, in New York's times square, the scale of the | :07:40. | :07:47. | |
victory became clearer to those who had gathered. But the challenger | :07:47. | :07:51. | |
waited until the early hours before appearing in front of supporters in | :07:51. | :07:58. | |
Boston to concede defeat. Thank you, thank you. I so wish, I so wish | :07:58. | :08:01. | |
that I had been able to fulfil your hopes to lead the country in a | :08:01. | :08:05. | |
different direction, but the nation chose another leader, and so Ann | :08:05. | :08:10. | |
and I join with you to ernestly pray for him and for this great | :08:10. | :08:13. | |
nation. Thank you and God bless America, you guys are the best, | :08:13. | :08:17. | |
thank you so much. At the end of it all, though, the | :08:17. | :08:23. | |
Republican candidate was weak and so was his message. Despite being | :08:23. | :08:28. | |
around 80% white, Wisconsin, Ohio and Pennsylvania, all stayed | :08:28. | :08:34. | |
Democrat. Mitt Romney increased the Republican white share of the vote, | :08:34. | :08:39. | |
but never above 57%. Mitt Romney had picked Paul Ryan from Wisconsin | :08:39. | :08:44. | |
as his running mate, in Anne tempt to nail it. But in states -- in an | :08:44. | :08:48. | |
attempt to nail it. But in states where union membership was above | :08:48. | :08:52. | |
the national average, the President's help to the car | :08:52. | :09:01. | |
industry and active base did it. The labour unions are amongst the | :09:01. | :09:07. | |
heaviest spenders in American politics and highist constituents. | :09:07. | :09:12. | |
In Pennsylvania and Ohio and Michigan, they provided a firewall. | :09:12. | :09:19. | |
What you see is when you remember the angry white voter, if he's a | :09:19. | :09:23. | |
union member, he behaves very differently electorally. That has a | :09:23. | :09:29. | |
huge impact on the way that electorate works. So I would point | :09:29. | :09:33. | |
to that phenomenon in particular, to understand why those states | :09:33. | :09:38. | |
played out the way they did. In particular Wisconsin and Ohio, the | :09:38. | :09:43. | |
issue of the autobail out was compelling. These are places with | :09:43. | :09:52. | |
some of -- out toe bail out were compelling, -- auto bail out was | :09:52. | :09:55. | |
xelgs. These are places of some of the biggest plants. | :09:55. | :10:01. | |
It was a big banker or Obama, but it is also somewhere that was once | :10:01. | :10:06. | |
solidly Republican, but which, with a candidate so influenced by the | :10:06. | :10:13. | |
party's white wing idealogs, Mr Romney just couldn't win. The big | :10:13. | :10:17. | |
thing is to be careful not to play to your base in the primaries, and | :10:17. | :10:21. | |
hurt yourself in the general. The Romney people, in the die ex- | :10:21. | :10:25. | |
section of their campaign, they will look -- desection of their | :10:25. | :10:29. | |
campaign, they will look back and see they made enormous mistakes in | :10:29. | :10:39. | |
:10:39. | :10:39. | ||
the primaries, going to the Rick Perry, on immigration, by angered | :10:39. | :10:42. | |
latteenys. They really cling clainged. | :10:42. | :10:48. | |
By the time -- Those things really clanged. By the time President | :10:48. | :10:50. | |
Obama leaves in 2016, the Republicans may offer the country | :10:50. | :10:54. | |
something very different. Until then, Mr Obama will occupy office, | :10:54. | :11:01. | |
facing challenges every bit as daunting as those of his first time. | :11:01. | :11:05. | |
The former Vermont governor, Howard Dean, ran for the Democrat | :11:05. | :11:09. | |
nomination for presidency in 2004, Andrew Sullivan is a New York-based | :11:09. | :11:14. | |
writer, columnist and blogger, he joins us from there. Howard Dean, | :11:14. | :11:19. | |
first off, this isn't really glad, confident morning, is it? It is not | :11:19. | :11:23. | |
that kind of inheritance? It is, actually. I tell you why, obviously | :11:23. | :11:27. | |
the President had a great victory, and to add two seats in the Senate | :11:27. | :11:30. | |
is extraordinary. No-one in Washington thought that was going | :11:30. | :11:34. | |
to happen. But the really big reason is, I think that this | :11:34. | :11:37. | |
signals the end of the culture wars in this country. It won't be the | :11:37. | :11:42. | |
end of the war, the right-wing will still fight rear guard actions, | :11:42. | :11:46. | |
butt question for four states to essentially approve gay marriage, | :11:46. | :11:49. | |
on ballot, never happened before in this country. I think that | :11:50. | :11:53. | |
discussion and debate is over. There will be further discussion, | :11:53. | :11:57. | |
but it won't be brought up in the campaigns. Abortion rights. This is | :11:57. | :12:00. | |
the first time in my memory, this is the first time, period, that any | :12:00. | :12:05. | |
candidate for President, on the Democratic side, has stood up and | :12:05. | :12:10. | |
fought for abortion rights and gay rights in the campaign. And he won, | :12:10. | :12:13. | |
and convincingly. Andrew Sullivan, what do you think we learned about | :12:13. | :12:18. | |
America from this election? I think, firstly, one critical thing, which | :12:18. | :12:23. | |
is the big original thing that Barack Obama did, was get America | :12:23. | :12:27. | |
to universal healthcare. That was something that Presidents from | :12:28. | :12:33. | |
Johnson, all the way through to Clinton had wanted, including Nixon. | :12:33. | :12:37. | |
This election made that irreversible. That is a huge step | :12:37. | :12:41. | |
for the United States of America. They not only re-elected a black | :12:41. | :12:46. | |
President, but backed universal healthcare for everybody. That will | :12:46. | :12:56. | |
:12:56. | :12:56. | ||
not be undone. I think that is huge. I agrie, this is a fundamental | :12:56. | :13:00. | |
alignment. You have a permanent Democratic majority out there, | :13:00. | :13:04. | |
represented by the young and the minorities, especially women, that | :13:04. | :13:07. | |
is beginning to lock as if the Republican Party will not be able | :13:07. | :13:11. | |
to overcome it in the near or immediate or distant future. That | :13:11. | :13:17. | |
is a huge realignment for Obama. He's the Democrat's Ronald Reagan, | :13:18. | :13:26. | |
his impact will be that profound. They won't try to overcome it any | :13:26. | :13:29. | |
more, the right-wing will, and they have a significance influence in | :13:29. | :13:33. | |
the primaries, but the Republicans will concentrate on the economic | :13:33. | :13:39. | |
issues, the only way to get voters under-35. There is a big market for | :13:39. | :13:44. | |
a successful Republican Party in future, it can't include being | :13:44. | :13:51. | |
anti- Islam, anti- women and anti- anything. Do you think President | :13:51. | :13:55. | |
Obama is able to be more radical in his second term? I don't think he | :13:55. | :14:00. | |
will, he wasn't in the first time. That's not his nature, he is a | :14:00. | :14:03. | |
centrist, he is somebody who wants to bring people together. He will | :14:03. | :14:06. | |
do that. I think he will take flack from my wing of the party as a | :14:06. | :14:11. | |
result. Andrew Sullivan? Yes, I think so | :14:11. | :14:16. | |
too. I think Barack Obama's essentially what we used to call a | :14:16. | :14:19. | |
moderate Republican. He won a lot of people who call themselves | :14:19. | :14:24. | |
moderates in this election. The Republican Party is an outliar in | :14:24. | :14:33. | |
the entire best on almost -- outlier on the entire election. It | :14:33. | :14:37. | |
believes climate change is a hoax, it thinks that gay people need to | :14:37. | :14:45. | |
be kept in a second-class status permanently. We have had a | :14:46. | :14:49. | |
Republican Party trapped in a bubble of its own creation, it has | :14:49. | :14:52. | |
burst and this is a reality we see in front of us. This is America, it | :14:52. | :14:56. | |
is Barack Obama's America. He proved last night that he really is | :14:56. | :15:01. | |
the American in this race. Because, for the first time, he represents | :15:01. | :15:06. | |
America, not the guy who looks like the dream of the American President | :15:06. | :15:12. | |
from 1958, but this coffee-coloured, complicated black and white Midwest | :15:12. | :15:17. | |
and Hawaiian, stranger and total friend, has become the face of | :15:17. | :15:21. | |
America. And that's a significant and enormous shift in this | :15:21. | :15:25. | |
country's culture. That is a heck of a task he's | :15:25. | :15:31. | |
taking on at this time? He's ideally suited to do it. I think | :15:31. | :15:37. | |
this is a momentous time in American history. Andrew's like, | :15:37. | :15:40. | |
re-elected an African-American President is almost more important | :15:40. | :15:47. | |
in elected him the first time. Here is what Americans just rejected, we | :15:47. | :15:51. | |
rejected racism, homophobia, we rejected misogyny, and we stand for | :15:51. | :15:55. | |
a diverse nation. I think that's an, we have a affirmed the American | :15:55. | :15:58. | |
dream, in terms of what we wrote about in the constitution when we | :15:58. | :16:03. | |
raised the bar on human rights. And, I think this is an extraordinary | :16:03. | :16:09. | |
moment in American history. I really do. What do you think that | :16:09. | :16:15. | |
recognition, just a second, will do to the challenges that he faces. | :16:15. | :16:20. | |
These enormous, complicated challenges, let's leave aside the | :16:20. | :16:24. | |
monetary crises in this country, Iran, the Middle East, these are | :16:24. | :16:28. | |
really difficult times? They are very difficult times. The Iranians, | :16:28. | :16:33. | |
this is the first President who has had a significant effect on Iran. | :16:33. | :16:37. | |
The sanctions are hurting Iran, we need to continue. I'm a hardliner | :16:37. | :16:44. | |
on Iran, it is a dangerous country with untrustworthy leadership. He's | :16:44. | :16:47. | |
choking them off financially we can't have boots on the ground in | :16:47. | :16:51. | |
Iran, we have been in Iraq for 11 years and Afghanistan for more, we | :16:51. | :16:55. | |
can't. He's doing something and he's tough about it. I think | :16:55. | :16:58. | |
eventually that will prevail. Pakistan is a more difficult | :16:58. | :17:03. | |
problem, because it is the internal nature of the politics is so | :17:03. | :17:06. | |
incredibly complicated, we can't straighten it out, we can certainly | :17:06. | :17:10. | |
provide guidelines and some kind of walling off of their influence if | :17:10. | :17:17. | |
we can, and the rest of the Muslim world. Supporting the Arab Spring, | :17:17. | :17:23. | |
very smart thing to do. We stopped the historical American policy of | :17:23. | :17:26. | |
supporting dictator, no matter how awful they were, as long as they | :17:26. | :17:30. | |
were our friend. That is a lot of work to do there, and it is an | :17:30. | :17:35. | |
important thing for America to do. You are sounding like a man who | :17:35. | :17:38. | |
would like the job of Secretary of State, that job will be available | :17:38. | :17:40. | |
too? Thank you very much, I appreciate that. Andrew Sullivan, | :17:40. | :17:44. | |
what do you think will be the impact on the world stage of this | :17:44. | :17:49. | |
second term? I think it is enormous. What we are threatening to happen, | :17:49. | :17:55. | |
with Mitt Romney, in alliance with Binyamin Nethanyahu, was really a | :17:55. | :17:58. | |
global religious conflict on steroids, if you weren't careful. | :17:58. | :18:01. | |
The image that would have been sent in the direction of foreign policy, | :18:01. | :18:06. | |
would have been dramatically back towards a Cheney-like position. | :18:06. | :18:11. | |
Romney, for example, wanted to bring back waterboarding, torture, | :18:11. | :18:14. | |
for example, into the American Government. That will not happen | :18:14. | :18:19. | |
now America will remain what it has been for the last four years, which | :18:19. | :18:24. | |
is, it's traditional internationalist position, without | :18:24. | :18:30. | |
the unilateralism and triesism that accompanied Dick Cheney. That is a | :18:30. | :18:34. | |
big deal with respect to the rest of the world. As to Israel, the | :18:34. | :18:37. | |
only chance at this point that Israel has of getting a two-state | :18:37. | :18:42. | |
solution, which will save it from demographic annihilation, is | :18:42. | :18:46. | |
President Obama. He started from day one to try to get this fixed, | :18:46. | :18:52. | |
he's still absolutely insistent it happen, I think we may see some | :18:52. | :18:55. | |
surprises in the next couple of years, in terms it of Israel's | :18:55. | :18:58. | |
self-understanding, and Israelis beginning to realise this man can't | :18:58. | :19:03. | |
be run over, and we may have to deal with him, we may also save | :19:03. | :19:06. | |
ourselves in the process. That is a very interesting point. | :19:06. | :19:09. | |
The point that Andrew is making essentially is now Nethanyahu knows | :19:09. | :19:14. | |
who he has to live with for the rest of his primeship. Now he may | :19:14. | :19:24. | |
be a bit more -- prime ministership. It is a personal problem between | :19:24. | :19:25. | |
President Obama and Binyamin Nethanyahu. Binyamin Nethanyahu | :19:25. | :19:29. | |
realises who he has to deal with, and Andrew is exactly right about | :19:29. | :19:32. | |
the problem in the Middle East. If they continue to occupy the | :19:32. | :19:36. | |
territories, that is bad for Israel, let alone the Palestinians, because | :19:36. | :19:41. | |
it has this ethnic, or demographic timebomb. Israel can't be from the | :19:41. | :19:46. | |
Jordan to the Mediterranean, and be a democracy at the same time. They | :19:46. | :19:49. | |
want very much to be a democracy. Gentlemen, thank you very much. We | :19:49. | :19:53. | |
will be back with you in a moment or two. When you look at what | :19:53. | :19:55. | |
President Obama has to deal with, it is sometimes hard to see why he | :19:55. | :20:00. | |
wanted to keep the job. We will come to his biggest problem shortly, | :20:00. | :20:03. | |
consider the Republican challenge. No surprise, perhaps, that nine out | :20:03. | :20:07. | |
of ten black voters went with Obama, but the figures also show that | :20:07. | :20:12. | |
women, who make up over half the electorate, Hispanic Americans, an | :20:12. | :20:16. | |
increasing force in this country, overwhelmingly too went for him. In | :20:16. | :20:20. | |
the words of one Republican senator, "they aren't generating enough | :20:20. | :20:24. | |
angry white guys to stay in business for the long-term". Where | :20:24. | :20:29. | |
do they go from here? One for Laura Trevelyan in Florida. | :20:29. | :20:33. | |
Miami night life, but not as you imagine it. Florida Republicans | :20:33. | :20:39. | |
huddled around Fox News last night, anxiously monitoring the results. | :20:39. | :20:44. | |
Then this. The key moment of the evening. | :20:44. | :20:47. | |
President Obama will win the crucial battleground state of Ohio. | :20:47. | :20:51. | |
Not only did Mitt Romney fail to win the White House, it was clear | :20:51. | :20:56. | |
the party performed lamentably with Hispanic and women voters. They | :20:57. | :21:00. | |
need to communicate better the positions and explain that it is | :21:00. | :21:03. | |
not, it is not like, that they believe in the Stone Age for women, | :21:03. | :21:10. | |
they want to empower people. Typically it is Mexicans, Porto | :21:10. | :21:12. | |
Ricans, the three big Hispanic nationalties in this country, they | :21:13. | :21:18. | |
have to find way to communicate and make conservative principles more | :21:18. | :21:22. | |
attractive to those groups. They may think it is simple, but the | :21:22. | :21:25. | |
Republican Party's dominant TEA Party base doesn't agree. We have | :21:25. | :21:31. | |
to become a more righteous nation. That's right. We have to become, | :21:31. | :21:34. | |
understanding the difference between liberty and freedom and | :21:34. | :21:40. | |
tyranny. Tired and emotional activists began haranguing a | :21:41. | :21:46. | |
Congressman. As a battle looms between the party's idealo gs and | :21:46. | :21:51. | |
pra mat tiss, some say it is time to reach out to a natural | :21:51. | :21:56. | |
constituency. The Republican Party needs to do a better job of | :21:56. | :22:00. | |
communicating to a lot of the, say the Hispanic community in the | :22:00. | :22:04. | |
United States, which shares a lot of Republican Party values, but the | :22:05. | :22:08. | |
Republican Party, in years past, has, I think, very aggressively | :22:08. | :22:12. | |
said things that have hurt, and have caused a lot of damage | :22:12. | :22:15. | |
politically. The face of this nation is changing. | :22:15. | :22:21. | |
In 30 years time, one in three Americans will be Hispanic. | :22:21. | :22:24. | |
Republicans fear this demographic shift could give Democrats a lock | :22:24. | :22:30. | |
on national elections. As Florida goes, so goes the nation. For a lot | :22:30. | :22:35. | |
of different reasons it is multilingualism, multiculturalism, | :22:35. | :22:39. | |
the melting pot status of flour ka, the US is turning that way | :22:39. | :22:44. | |
everywhere, -- Florida, it is turning that way everywhere, but we | :22:44. | :22:50. | |
are faster on all fronts. Some say the Republican's electoral strategy | :22:50. | :22:56. | |
is too focused on the white vote, which is shrinking. Back in 2004 | :22:56. | :23:04. | |
George W Bush actually won 40% of the Hispanic vote, since then, the | :23:04. | :23:06. | |
party's rightward shift, particularly on immigration, has | :23:06. | :23:10. | |
alienated this growing section of modern America. So what's to be | :23:10. | :23:15. | |
done. We found the best analysis of the Republican's dilemma with | :23:15. | :23:21. | |
voters, on the beach. Did you vote Republican? No I did not, mam. | :23:21. | :23:26. | |
not? Honestly I don't agree with any of his positions, on healthcare | :23:26. | :23:31. | |
especially, and anything with the middle-class. Republicans perform | :23:31. | :23:39. | |
really badly among the Latino vote, does that surprise you? In my | :23:39. | :23:45. | |
experience most Latinos are Republican kan, but vote Democrat | :23:45. | :23:51. | |
because of the immigration issues. This was the last election where | :23:51. | :23:59. | |
there even was a chance without the minority vote, and they lost | :23:59. | :24:03. | |
because of it, that and women. The social issues are the problem for | :24:03. | :24:09. | |
the GOP right now. As Republicans reflect on how best to court | :24:09. | :24:14. | |
Hispanics, there will be an early test of how best to put their | :24:14. | :24:17. | |
position. President Obama wants immigration reform, Republicans | :24:17. | :24:23. | |
must soon decide how far to go. From Andrew Sullivan is still in | :24:23. | :24:28. | |
New York for us. Here with me is Clark Judge, speechwriter for many | :24:28. | :24:34. | |
a Republican President. What do you think, was wrong with the Romney | :24:34. | :24:38. | |
proposition? Well, I'm not sure what was wrong, but how it was done. | :24:38. | :24:44. | |
It didn't work, did it? Let's look at the totality of this election. | :24:44. | :24:47. | |
Three branches, political branches of the US Government were up. The | :24:47. | :24:51. | |
Democrats won the Senate, conshrisingly. The Republicans -- | :24:51. | :24:56. | |
convincingly. The Republicans won the House, also convincingly. The | :24:56. | :24:59. | |
popular vote for the President more or less divided. What does that | :24:59. | :25:03. | |
mean? There were a lot of ticket- spliter, there had to be to have an | :25:03. | :25:07. | |
outcome like that. So what are they saying to us? They are saying, they | :25:07. | :25:12. | |
are a little bit like your boss calling you in. Maybe another | :25:12. | :25:14. | |
reporter in, and saying what do you think about this story, and you | :25:14. | :25:19. | |
have one story and he has the other. Your boss leans back and says, I | :25:19. | :25:23. | |
don't want to hear about this, you guys get together, figure it out, | :25:23. | :25:28. | |
and make it work. That's what American people said to us, to the | :25:28. | :25:33. | |
whole political establishment. President Obama, or rather Governor | :25:33. | :25:41. | |
Romney tried to make this an election about economics. President | :25:41. | :25:45. | |
Obama tried to make it about social issues, and they both succeeded, | :25:45. | :25:49. | |
but with different groups within the population. Andrew Sullivan, | :25:49. | :25:52. | |
according to that analysis the culture wars aren't over, are they? | :25:52. | :25:56. | |
No they are not. The reason for that is that the Republican Party | :25:56. | :26:02. | |
is not a traditional political party, that has making up its mind, | :26:02. | :26:05. | |
based upon its rational self- interest. It is a fundamentalist | :26:05. | :26:09. | |
religious party, whose position on a whole bunch of these issues is | :26:09. | :26:16. | |
based upon fundamentalist, Protestant religion, that is a kind | :26:16. | :26:20. | |
of ideology and theology that makes it extremely hard to change without | :26:20. | :26:23. | |
some kind of meltdown. That is what we have to see first. The | :26:23. | :26:28. | |
Republican Party has to get theself away from being a primarily | :26:28. | :26:33. | |
religious movement, into becoming, once again, a more pragmatic, | :26:33. | :26:38. | |
political movement. Keep those profound issues about whose God is | :26:38. | :26:42. | |
true, and what we should do in our private lives, leave that to civil | :26:42. | :26:46. | |
society, and tell us how conservatives want to tackle our | :26:46. | :26:53. | |
practical, secular problems, growth, the budget, taxes, healthcare. I | :26:53. | :26:58. | |
think that's their problem. How do you get religious fanatics to | :26:58. | :27:00. | |
become political pragmatist, when you have handed over your entire | :27:00. | :27:09. | |
party to them. That takes years to overcome. Well, what Andrew has | :27:09. | :27:14. | |
said, I imagine he must have liked Mr Romney, because that's all Mr | :27:14. | :27:21. | |
Romney talked about since the convention. He was talking about | :27:21. | :27:25. | |
the budget, taxes, energy policy, he was talking about all of these | :27:25. | :27:31. | |
kinds of things. Now, what went wrong? Some of it, I hate to say | :27:31. | :27:34. | |
this, because I know it is not the theme here. Some of it was pretty | :27:34. | :27:38. | |
much how they ran their campaign. President Obama ran a superb | :27:38. | :27:43. | |
campaign, started very early, established his themes a year ago, | :27:43. | :27:47. | |
and was consistent all the way through. Mr Romney didn't really | :27:47. | :27:53. | |
get to his themes until the convention, and then didn't really | :27:53. | :27:58. | |
well articulate them until the debate. Very late. That was a big | :27:58. | :28:03. | |
problem, he never really caught up with the President. But do you see | :28:03. | :28:09. | |
no need for an ideolgical redefinition or rerepresentation of | :28:09. | :28:15. | |
the party? I have been hearing this all day about the re-representation. | :28:15. | :28:19. | |
They split the popular vote, and the two parties split the | :28:19. | :28:23. | |
lengthsure, the Congress. So -- legislature, the Congress. There | :28:23. | :28:28. | |
are problems whenever you redefine a group, a party. You jettison some | :28:28. | :28:32. | |
groups, even as you try to pick up others. Those others have | :28:32. | :28:35. | |
allegiances to the other party, why should they come over to you. You | :28:35. | :28:39. | |
look for the group inbetween, and that group inbetween has been | :28:39. | :28:47. | |
moving back and forth. Mr Obama was largely more effective at | :28:47. | :28:50. | |
articulating his message, and particularly his social issue | :28:51. | :28:54. | |
messages to the groups that most cared about it. That's the | :28:54. | :28:57. | |
difference here. Andrew Sullivan, you have laid out very clearly what | :28:57. | :29:01. | |
you think the party has to do, are there people prominent in the party, | :29:01. | :29:07. | |
who would make a better candidate embodying those beliefs? There was | :29:07. | :29:12. | |
one, this time round. A man called Jon Huntsman, who couldn't get more | :29:12. | :29:22. | |
:29:22. | :29:23. | ||
than 1% of the primary vote. It reminds me of the Tories as Labour | :29:23. | :29:28. | |
took over, they listened more and more to themselves, and it took a | :29:28. | :29:33. | |
generation to try and come back and win. This was not a draw this | :29:33. | :29:37. | |
election, President Obama won it, clearly, won it much more clearly | :29:37. | :29:41. | |
than George W Bush did in 2000 and yet Bush ran on a very strong | :29:41. | :29:45. | |
mandate. This was not a draw, it was a win for President Obama, and | :29:45. | :29:49. | |
the Democratic party in the Senate, and the people who lost in the | :29:49. | :29:53. | |
Senate in the Republican Party, were precisely the religious | :29:53. | :29:56. | |
fundamentalists that now control that party. Someone, somewhere has | :29:56. | :30:02. | |
to get control of that party, away from religion. | :30:02. | :30:08. | |
You wouldn't call the campaign that Mitt Romney ran as religious. You | :30:08. | :30:14. | |
wouldn't call the campaign in the House that led to the House victory | :30:15. | :30:22. | |
as not indicating a broad base. What we did see in the way that | :30:22. | :30:26. | |
President Obama ran his campaign was that he was very good at | :30:26. | :30:32. | |
spreading out his strength where Mr Romney was not as good. Mr Romney | :30:32. | :30:39. | |
failed to appeal to black people in sufficient numbers, to women in | :30:39. | :30:41. | |
sufficient numbers? With the first African-American President, of | :30:41. | :30:46. | |
course he didn't. The Hispanics, women? The Hispanic vote, we do | :30:46. | :30:51. | |
have an issue with the Hispanic vote, that ought to be with the | :30:51. | :30:55. | |
Republican Party, at least on the kinds of issues that Mr Surlivan we | :30:55. | :31:00. | |
ought to abandon. And the Hispanic voters are more entreprenurial as a | :31:00. | :31:04. | |
vote, and upwardly mobile vote, it should be with the Republican Party. | :31:04. | :31:09. | |
You are exactly right, we should be reaching out to that much more. | :31:09. | :31:13. | |
failed? We did, but he pulled in other groups. When you get as close | :31:13. | :31:17. | |
an election in the popular vote as we have, you are not talking about | :31:18. | :31:21. | |
the kind of upheaval we have been hearing about all through the day. | :31:21. | :31:27. | |
You are talking about addressing some very specific problems, and | :31:28. | :31:32. | |
being very focused about them. And that's where Mr Romney fell a bit | :31:32. | :31:41. | |
short. Can I give awe -- you how specific | :31:41. | :31:46. | |
religion us was. Abortion was a big issue, and the debate in the | :31:46. | :31:50. | |
Republican Party is whether it might be legal even in cases of -- | :31:50. | :31:54. | |
illegal even cases of rape, that is where they are. They want to | :31:54. | :31:58. | |
criminalise abortion in every state regardless of their positions, | :31:58. | :32:02. | |
criminalise it, the only debate is about whether a woman was raped she | :32:02. | :32:06. | |
would have to be brought to term. That is where they are in terms of | :32:06. | :32:11. | |
women's issues. Now that is based upon religion, and an idea about | :32:11. | :32:15. | |
biology and about women's role in the world. When you have majority | :32:15. | :32:20. | |
women electorate you are going to lose. Look, Mr Surlivan, apparently | :32:21. | :32:24. | |
hasn't been paying attention to the Republican Party. Because, first of | :32:24. | :32:29. | |
all, the men who said those words about rape were immediately | :32:29. | :32:32. | |
disavowed, the first one was immediately disavowed, it was a | :32:32. | :32:37. | |
little late to do it with the other one. They were immediately | :32:37. | :32:44. | |
disavowed and abandoned by the party. They both ran? But they were | :32:44. | :32:51. | |
off the wall. What you had on abortion in the Republican Party, | :32:51. | :32:59. | |
the position, broadly, is remove Row versus Wade and then the party | :32:59. | :33:03. | |
has many, many positions on where abortion should be. It has one | :33:03. | :33:06. | |
position, which is a federal amendment. I have to bring it to an | :33:06. | :33:10. | |
end. We are going to have to bring it to an end. Thank you both very | :33:10. | :33:13. | |
much. Leaving aside what he has to do about simple matters such as | :33:13. | :33:16. | |
Iran and the Middle East. There is a sense in which Obama is like a | :33:16. | :33:22. | |
man who has fought off a hijacker and wrestled back control of the | :33:22. | :33:25. | |
steering wheel of a juggernaut, only to realise the road he's on | :33:25. | :33:29. | |
leads straight to a brick wall or over a cliff. The thing they talk | :33:29. | :33:33. | |
about here is a fiscal cliff in simple terms in eight weeks time | :33:33. | :33:36. | |
taxes will go through the roof at the same time as there are huge | :33:36. | :33:39. | |
cuts to public spending. It is authoritatively expected tip the | :33:39. | :33:44. | |
country back into recession, if it happens. And furthermore, it is a | :33:44. | :33:48. | |
legal obligation. Our Economics Editor Paul Mason is our resident | :33:48. | :33:51. | |
Cassandra. America spends like a superpower, | :33:51. | :33:56. | |
taxes like a nation that believes in small Government. As a result, | :33:56. | :34:02. | |
its debt stands at $16 trillion. That is 104% of GDP, higher than | :34:02. | :34:07. | |
any developed country except Japan, and it has been growing at over $1 | :34:07. | :34:11. | |
trillion a year. Last summer Congress, controlled by the | :34:11. | :34:17. | |
Republican, said, enough. Spurred on by the Tea Party movement, they | :34:17. | :34:21. | |
refused to lift the debt ceiling, threatening the Government with | :34:21. | :34:24. | |
shutdown. The President was forced to agree to mandatory, across the | :34:24. | :34:29. | |
board spending cuts, from January 2nd next year. This, together with | :34:29. | :34:33. | |
the expiry of massive tax cuts from the Bush era, creates the fiscal | :34:33. | :34:38. | |
cliff. Here is why they call it a cliff. The combined impact of the | :34:38. | :34:42. | |
tax rises and spending cuts, will be to slash the deficit immediately, | :34:42. | :34:47. | |
by half a trillion dollars over the next year, and over three years it | :34:47. | :34:51. | |
would fall to 1% of GDP, but the economic impact would be huge, it | :34:51. | :34:54. | |
would push America immediately into recession. The fiscal cliff matters, | :34:54. | :34:59. | |
not just to Americans, but to Europe too. Economists think, if | :34:59. | :35:04. | |
the full programme is applied, it could push Europe into a deep | :35:04. | :35:09. | |
recession and half growth in China. The IMF have said, don't do it, so | :35:09. | :35:13. | |
there is huge pressure on President Obama not to step off the fiscal | :35:13. | :35:16. | |
cliff. But, from Republicans in Congress, | :35:16. | :35:22. | |
the pressure is the other way. won't solve the problem of our | :35:22. | :35:26. | |
fiscal imbalance overnight. And certainly won't do it in a lame | :35:26. | :35:31. | |
duck session of Congress. And it won't be solved simply by raising | :35:32. | :35:35. | |
taxes and taking a plunge off the fiscal cliff. What we can do is | :35:35. | :35:41. | |
avert the cliff in a manner that service as a downpayment on and a | :35:41. | :35:44. | |
catalyst for major solution, enacted in 2013, to begin to solve | :35:44. | :35:49. | |
the problem. Making the compromise will not be | :35:49. | :35:51. | |
easy, the Republicans retained control of the house of | :35:51. | :35:54. | |
representatives last night, and they are sore. There will be a | :35:54. | :36:02. | |
fight it keep the spending cuts. And it will not be pretty. | :36:02. | :36:07. | |
Neera Tandem was head of tkpwhesic policy for Obama, Daniel Mitchell | :36:07. | :36:12. | |
from the Cato Institute has worked for the Republican Party in the | :36:12. | :36:17. | |
Senate. Is this a major problem or opportunity? For the President, the | :36:17. | :36:21. | |
situations we face? I think this was an historic election. Sure, but | :36:21. | :36:26. | |
the fiscal crisis, this is weeks away? Yes, absolutely. But I think, | :36:27. | :36:34. | |
what I was saying is, I think people did not expect the | :36:34. | :36:37. | |
Democratic majorities we have. The Senate Democrats expanded a | :36:38. | :36:42. | |
majority. The real issue on the table is whether the Republican | :36:42. | :36:46. | |
Party will shift on revenue, that is always the question. Today you | :36:46. | :36:50. | |
have seen the speaker talk a little bit more about revenue than in the | :36:50. | :36:54. | |
past. The issue here is, we know what to do around the fiscal cliff, | :36:54. | :37:04. | |
:37:04. | :37:06. | ||
it is whether there is political resolve to do it. With the election | :37:06. | :37:10. | |
results and Republican Party Congress coming to the table to | :37:10. | :37:14. | |
discuss it. This is a fight we have had for a while, because voters | :37:14. | :37:20. | |
don't want to see higher taxes, it is like giving the keys to a liquor | :37:20. | :37:25. | |
store to alcoholics to put more revenue on the table in Washington. | :37:25. | :37:29. | |
Looking at Spain, Italy, raising taxes, Republicans don't want to go | :37:29. | :37:35. | |
down that path, but there is the specter of automatic tax increases | :37:35. | :37:38. | |
if something isn't done. Either Obama has to give, or Republicans | :37:38. | :37:43. | |
have to give, or they both have to give. When politicians meet in a | :37:43. | :37:47. | |
room in Washington, tax-payers usually lose, I'm not optimistic, | :37:47. | :37:50. | |
you will be happy, probably, I won't. That is a misreading of the | :37:50. | :37:55. | |
election. If you look at the exit poll, the data is 64% of Americans | :37:56. | :37:59. | |
want higher taxes for wealthy Americans, that is the issue the | :37:59. | :38:02. | |
President campaigned on. To say that this issue that the President | :38:02. | :38:06. | |
campaigned on, and of in every debate, and was part of his | :38:06. | :38:11. | |
campaign stump, it is not going to be a surprise. Can it be fudged | :38:11. | :38:14. | |
now? I don't believe it can be. First of all you can't spend the | :38:15. | :38:17. | |
fiscal crisis with spending alone. I think Greece and all these | :38:17. | :38:23. | |
countries are a great example. will put the country back into | :38:24. | :38:27. | |
recession? Here is the issue, if we have austerity measure that is | :38:27. | :38:30. | |
simply put their weight on the backs of middle-class Americans, | :38:30. | :38:36. | |
then we are going to face the kinds of crisis that Europe is face, less | :38:36. | :38:39. | |
growth, not more growth. I will make awe deal, if you say Obama | :38:39. | :38:43. | |
gets the higher tax rates because he campaigned on it, does that mean | :38:43. | :38:47. | |
we get to undo Obamacare and fake stimulus because he didn't campaign | :38:47. | :38:51. | |
on those. The American people are split on these issues in reality, | :38:51. | :38:54. | |
the question is, what economy anywhere in the history of the | :38:54. | :38:59. | |
world has made itself better by increasing tax rates on | :38:59. | :39:01. | |
entrepeneurs and small business owners. The problem with Washington | :39:01. | :39:04. | |
is the town is filled with bloated bureaucracies that are doing things | :39:05. | :39:08. | |
that central Government shouldn't do. In 1993 President Clinton | :39:09. | :39:14. | |
raised tax, the rate went from 35% to 36%, we had a large increase on | :39:14. | :39:18. | |
taxes in wealthy Americans in eight years of growth. That is just the | :39:18. | :39:21. | |
facts of American his treatment we can say these things aren't true, | :39:21. | :39:27. | |
but they are. But in 1995, Clinton's own OMB said there would | :39:27. | :39:32. | |
be deficits of $200 billion plus. There weren't. As far as I can see | :39:32. | :39:35. | |
with the election of the Republicans in 1994 changed the | :39:35. | :39:40. | |
spending trend line. That is the whole key to fiscal policy, the | :39:40. | :39:44. | |
private sector should grow faster than the public, Obama wants it to | :39:44. | :39:48. | |
be like Greece and the other way round. They re-elected him | :39:48. | :39:54. | |
yesterday. And the House. You have all these Credit Rating Agencies | :39:54. | :39:58. | |
deciding if the American Governments are trustworthy or not? | :39:58. | :40:01. | |
They are a lagging indicator not a leading indicator. If they are | :40:01. | :40:04. | |
about to pass judgment, you are in trouble as a Government? We are in | :40:05. | :40:08. | |
trouble as a Government. There is no question about it. Bush was a | :40:08. | :40:12. | |
big spender, Obama is a big spender, I suspect whoever is President in | :40:12. | :40:16. | |
2016 will be a big spender. Politicians buy their way to re- | :40:16. | :40:18. | |
election by spending other people's money. That is why we are all in | :40:18. | :40:25. | |
trouble. England, the US, France, big trouble. You know, you actual | :40:25. | :40:29. | |
loo think there is a lot of doom- saying about the American economy. | :40:29. | :40:33. | |
But it is growing better than the rest of the world at this rate. | :40:33. | :40:36. | |
trillion of debt? The difference between the United States and other | :40:36. | :40:40. | |
countries, is people are investing here. People are deciding to move | :40:40. | :40:43. | |
their money from other countries, into the United States, and | :40:43. | :40:45. | |
investors are putting their money in the United States because they | :40:45. | :40:55. | |
:40:55. | :40:56. | ||
know America is a good bet. The the reason why they think America is a | :40:56. | :40:59. | |
good bet, because our trend lines in growth are increasing. One of | :40:59. | :41:03. | |
the reasons the President won yesterday is more people were | :41:03. | :41:06. | |
optimistic about the future yesterday than they were a year ago, | :41:06. | :41:11. | |
two years ago three years ago. You are right, we do have a fiscal | :41:11. | :41:14. | |
challenge. We can address it. It is a long-term fiscal challenge, it | :41:14. | :41:17. | |
can be addressed. The difference between the two parties, and this | :41:17. | :41:22. | |
was an issue in the campaign, was are you going to put the burden of | :41:22. | :41:27. | |
the debt, only on the middle-class, or are you going to ask the wealthy | :41:27. | :41:31. | |
pay their fair share, as President Clinton did in 1993, and we got | :41:31. | :41:36. | |
years of growth from it. We will reconvene on December 31st perhaps. | :41:36. | :41:42. | |
Thank you very much. Despite what you, all of us heard from so many | :41:42. | :41:46. | |
self-proclaimed expert, the outcome of the campaign came nowhere near | :41:46. | :41:50. | |
in legal wranglings and hanging Chads and all that. They would be | :41:50. | :41:55. | |
the last to admit all of that, but predicting an election is an | :41:56. | :41:58. | |
imprecise science, however precise the figures might appear. There is | :41:58. | :42:03. | |
a lot of egg on lots of faces, more fool us for taking them seriously. | :42:03. | :42:08. | |
There were some who got it right, staggeringly right in some case. | :42:08. | :42:13. | |
No-one got it as wrong as the Chicago Tribune got it in the 19478 | :42:13. | :42:15. | |
presidential election, the man holding the front page is Harry | :42:16. | :42:21. | |
Truman, who had really won! Is polling today any more | :42:21. | :42:27. | |
sophisticated than a coin toss. Listen to the Republican pollster, | :42:27. | :42:33. | |
Dick Morris on Folk News last week. We will win by a landslide, it will | :42:33. | :42:37. | |
be the biggest surprise in recent American political his treatment it | :42:37. | :42:41. | |
will rekindle the whole question as to why the media played this race | :42:41. | :42:48. | |
as a nail-biter. Mr Morris's line today was, it was all the fault of | :42:48. | :42:52. | |
Hurricane Sandy. There was a handful of analysts who got it | :42:52. | :43:00. | |
pretty right. The new force here is an Englishman, Thomas Baize, a | :43:00. | :43:05. | |
Presbyterian minister, who departed life in 1763. He will be turning in | :43:05. | :43:12. | |
the grave to hear it, he was the inspiration in the Brad Pitt film, | :43:12. | :43:19. | |
Moneyball, there is a new formula to create a winning side. We are | :43:19. | :43:23. | |
card counter, at the black Jack table, we will turn the odds on the | :43:23. | :43:30. | |
casino. You don't put a team together on a computer. Drew Linzer | :43:30. | :43:34. | |
is part of the team of statisticians, and appears to have | :43:34. | :43:39. | |
called the election exactly right. What's the difference between you | :43:39. | :43:46. | |
and an old fashioned pundit, Drew Linzer? Well, when I look at the | :43:46. | :43:50. | |
election, what I'm looking at are measures of public opinion, that | :43:50. | :43:53. | |
come out of public opinion surveys. These are reliable sources of | :43:54. | :43:57. | |
information, and by putting those together in a systematic way, we | :43:57. | :44:00. | |
can get a pretty good idea of how people will actually vote on | :44:01. | :44:09. | |
election day. So these are good times to be a statistician, as op | :44:09. | :44:14. | |
poised to someone who intu -- as och posed to someone who | :44:14. | :44:18. | |
intuitively looks at the polls and believes they know what might | :44:18. | :44:23. | |
happen? There is no need for intuition if you have a systematic | :44:23. | :44:26. | |
understanding of how the polls are produced and what the information | :44:26. | :44:31. | |
they contain is. We know polls contain various sources of error, | :44:31. | :44:34. | |
there are ways of analysing the polls in aggregate to remove the | :44:34. | :44:39. | |
source of error. What we found in 2008 and this year, is public | :44:39. | :44:43. | |
opinion surveys, on average, close to the election, provide a very | :44:43. | :44:47. | |
accurate snapshot of how people will actually vote. And so, by | :44:47. | :44:51. | |
putting all these poll together, people like me and others, who take | :44:51. | :44:55. | |
this sort of statistical viewpoint, are able to make very accurate | :44:55. | :45:01. | |
predictions of how the vote will turn out yesterday. | :45:01. | :45:10. | |
Others who followed another methodology, made an inaccurate | :45:10. | :45:14. | |
prediction or two? They did, I don't know what else to add about | :45:14. | :45:19. | |
that. I think had a our goal, as people who watch the election, | :45:19. | :45:22. | |
should be to provide accurate information. And there are sources | :45:23. | :45:26. | |
of information, like public opinion poll, that have historically proven | :45:26. | :45:30. | |
to be accurate. That continued to be accurate. And I personally don't | :45:30. | :45:35. | |
know why we shouldn't use those and take advantage of those sources of | :45:35. | :45:39. | |
information, and why someone thinks that their gut, or their intuition | :45:39. | :45:45. | |
will do better than that, I really couldn't say. | :45:45. | :45:48. | |
You are a naturally very modest man, clearly. Would you like to come | :45:48. | :45:56. | |
over and predict some British elections for us? I would be happy | :45:56. | :46:01. | |
to, if you have the public opinion data for me, I'm sure I can put | :46:01. | :46:06. | |
together a model that would try to ebgts tract the information in | :46:06. | :46:10. | |
those -- extract the information in those polls. Drew Linzer thank you | :46:10. | :46:14. | |
very much for joining us. Thank you. That's it from Washington. By the | :46:14. | :46:18. | |
time there's another presidential election here, we shall have had | :46:18. | :46:21. | |
the chance to decide whether we want another David Cameron | :46:21. | :46:31. | |
:46:31. | :46:58. | ||
Good evening, a frost-free night to come tonight. Thanks to the breeze | :46:58. | :47:02. | |
and cloud and showers. Wet weather in the south of England, clearing, | :47:02. | :47:06. | |
a few showers elsewhere, not as wet a day in Scotland. Brighter in | :47:06. | :47:10. | |
Northern Ireland. Brightening up through the day. North West England, | :47:10. | :47:17. | |
there will be plenty of cloud, one or two sunnier breaks not out of | :47:17. | :47:20. | |
the question. In southern England occasional sunshine through the | :47:20. | :47:24. | |
second half of the day. Temperatures 10-12. The key thing, | :47:24. | :47:26. | |
compared with what we saw this afternoon, temperatures the same, | :47:26. | :47:31. | |
the winds will fall lighter after a breezy start. It will feel a touch | :47:31. | :47:35. | |
milder. For Wales we will see sunny break develop, not necessarily just | :47:35. | :47:39. | |
to the east, across western areas sunshine too. In Northern Ireland | :47:39. | :47:44. | |
best of the sunny breaks best across Antrim Down and Armagh. | :47:44. | :47:54. | |
:47:54. | :48:07. | ||
Western Scotland a dry and brighter There you go, we have a weather | :48:07. | :48:10. |