06/11/2012 Newsnight


In-depth investigation and analysis of the stories behind the day's headlines. With Jeremy Paxman in Washington for election night. Plus the latest on the Welsh care home inquiry.

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expensive election campaign in expensive election campaign in


history is over we are about to learn what it has wrought, the


decision America is makes effects us all, the men fighting it out for


leadership in the west, battled each other, even on polling day


today. The last day of efforts to prevent his being a one-term


President was devoted to getting out the vote. Last-minute call,


pleas not to forget to vote. There will be no second chance for Mitt


Romney, either, if he didn't do it today, it is back to the drawing


board for his whole party. We have Democrat and Republican


pollsters reading the numbers back stage. And the novelist, Martin


Amis joins our election panel. On this side of the Atlantic,


allegations on Newsnight prompt fresh inquiries into child abuse in


North Wales. The Government is treating these allegations with the


utmost seriousness. Child abuse is a hateful, abhorrent, and


disgusting crime, and we must not allow these allegations to go


unanswered. The Government promises to listen, but could all these


inquiries drown out the truth? It's not strictly accurate to call


this election day any longer. Tens of millions of Americans had voted,


even before today dawned, and they will still be voting in the Alucian


Islands at 6.00am tomorrow morning. This is the day the votes are


counted. It is 5.30pm, and it will be hours before we get anything


certain. If the polls were right in predicting a knife-edge vote, there


are some key states, like, for example, Ohio, who may only


discover what they have decided well into December. Let's try to


get some early indications now with Mark Urban. Read it for us? All of


this campaign has really centered around these called battleground


states. The majority of states are either called blue or red, in UK


terms, safe seats we would call them, so the key marginals are


where so much of the campaigning has been focused. Clearly each side


feels it is going into this with a chance of winning key marginals,


but the truth is, Governor Mitt Romney has a bigger hill to climb,


where he has to go to capture the 270 seats needed to appoint him


President, in the Electoral College. In some places he seems to have


done very well, in North Carolina, most polls suggest Governor Romney


will get that state. Florida, a huge prize, 15 seats in the North


Carolina seat. If Democrats win in Florida, that will be a hugely


positive sign for them, but the Republicans would like to think


they have got it. On the Obama side of this equation, polls have shown


consistently for him in Ohio, with 18 states. People see that as the


battleground of battlegrounds, and even in a state like vir gainia,


which he was pretty fortunate, -- Virginia, which some say he was


pretty fortunate to get last time, some people say he could take that


again and hold on to the state. you think Romney can win it? Well,


of course, so much of what we have said, what we have speculated about


is based on polling evidence. Those polls do seem to give President


Obama the edge, particularly in the marginals. But, of course, they


could be wrong. There are suggestions that they sample too


many Democrats in the way the polling is structured. There are


also suggestions in some past exit polls that more Democrats have


tended to answer the exit pollsters than Republicans. They could be


wrong. However, the Democrats, of course, feel they are right, and


they feel confident, as we found earlier in virginia.


Fredericksberg, Virginia, one of those battleground states, where


the Republicans have a real hill to climb. In the surrounding counties


there is plenty of support for Mitt Romney, in town, even his campaign


workers concede, there is a clear majority for Barack Obama. I just


voted for Obama, I'm so excited, this is a huge election year for


you, we all need to show support. I will definitely voted for him in


2008 and now again this time, four more years, I'm so excited. Thank


you, Obama! He's my choice this time. Mr Romney? I'm a registered


independent, and I think he will lead the country in a good


direction, I like Obama too. It's tough. Obama, what else did you


want to know! Why would you be voting for him? Because of his


phenomenal record, especially his first two years in office. Back in


2008, Barack Obama won this state for the Democrats for the first


time in more than 40 years. In order to get re-elect, he


desperately wants to hold on to it -- re-elected, he desperately wants


to hold on to it. The early signs we have seen this morning are


encouraging for the President. At these polling stations, high


turnout had made the Obama campaign corkers eboullient. Is high turn


out good for the President? Yes, a lot of the Obama supporters are out,


they didn't get complacent, that was the only real concern, that


there was a big grass-roots effort last time from the Obama campaign,


like never before. I think there was some worry that wouldn't happen


again for an incumbent, but I think it has.


But the dynamics of high turnout, like most things political here,


are subject to partisan argument. Certainly the Romney canvasers felt


it might favour their man. The conventional or received wisdom


seems to be is high turnout is good for the President. I think perhaps


you don't think so. Why would it potentially be good for your


candidate? A lot of folks are fed up with Obama, what he has been


doing for the last four years, that is getting more people out to the


polls. Typically you would expect that large turnout would favour the


incumbent, this time around I think we will see something else. In this


final hour of the campaign, nobody wants to concede. And this pattern


in Virginia, was also playing out on the national stage. Mitt Romney


voted in Massachusetts this morning. But this state is one of those


where the contest is a foregone conclusion. So the questions were


about another of those key marginals. REPORTER: What about


Ohio? I feel great about Ohio. Goodbye, thank you, take care,


Jennifer, you want to come with me to Cleveland. That is where he flew,


breaking the usual convention about halting campaigning on polling day,


in order to keep up the fight until the very last minute. His running


mate, Paul Ryan, meanwhile, urged party workers in Wisconsin, another


key state, to redouble their efforts, in the face of what he


described as a "Democrat surge at the polls".


As for the President, he chose to project an image of calm assurance


about the outcome. My name was Barack Obama, you know the


President of the United States. Shooting basket ball hoops in his


Chicago home town, and stepping back from jetting around those


battleground states. I also want to say to Governor Romney,


congratulations on a spirited campaign, I know his supporters are


just as engaged and just as enthusiastic, and working just as


hard today. We feel confident, we have got the votes to win, but it


will depend ultimately on whether those votes turn out. I would


encourage everybody, on all sides, just to make sure that you exercise


this precious right that we have. That people fought so hard for us


to have. The fight for key marginals has,


then, focused on turning out the base. In Virginia, the Republicans,


for example, made more than four million phone calls to possible


supporters, and messers Romney and Ryan, dozens of visits. Tonight it


will become clear whether that paid off, or whether the reports of high


turnout are confirmed, and that has turned it President Obama's way.


Let's see if we can learn a little bit more now with the latest


numbers. We have the Democratic pollster, Celinda Lake, and her


Republican counterpart, Ed Goeas. Right who is going to win? We are,


the Democrats. Barack Obama! This is completely independent! That was


not my prediction this morning. My prediction would be that Mitt


Romney would be right over at 50%, 50.4% and above. It reveals what a


bogus science polling is if you come to contradictory conclusions?


Neither of us said polling, we said "predicted". As As I said to one


earlier today, this is our sixth presidential election, I have


called three of those for a Democrats, she has never called it


for a Republican. That may tell you how we read the numbers. Or our


parties. When pollsters have been saying, as they have been for quite


a while, it will be very close. That's really the truth. You think


they are right, obviously, you are pollsters? I thought it would be


one of three scenario, close Obama win, close Romney win, or surge at


the end for Romney. The storm pretty much took out the surge


Romney, it close -- it will be close one way or the other, very


close. I think it will be close, as you said earlier in the programme,


it will be turnout. And both sides have substantial turnout operations.


Is there any indication that one side is not getting its vote out as


well as it should do, or getting it out better than the other side?


think the Democrats have a harder job to. Do our voters have,


traditionally have less voting history. We don't have the


intensity of 2008. It is always easier to be the outsider party,


that always is more energised, but we have an unparalleled operation,


if there are experts on either side for turnout, it is the bau,


campaign. I would answer it two different ways, normally the


Democrats have a big surge in early voting. We matched that now this


time. It looked about even between the two parties. Going into the


election day the Republicans do a better job and have more intensety.


The real battle is today. What do you think will have determined, if


you are looking at issues, what do you think will have determined the


outcome of this election? Come on, you are the pollster, you are


supposed to know! I think the economy is the big factor, of


course. The economy in the United States is still limping along, and


it is always hard for an incumbent to win re-election with bad economy.


Particularly turg the summer the Democrats were very effective -


during the summer the Democrats were very effective in drawing a


stark contrast between Mitt Romney, about whose side we were on. I


think the women's issue matters, Democrats win more when women vote


for them more than men vote for Republicans. This was the gift we


kept on giving. I agree of it the economy. One of the things we have


been watching is Mitt Romney on who can best handle the economy, jobs,


spending and, as of last night, for the first time, and small edge on


taxes. Which is what the Democrats had take Anne way from Romney


earlier in the year. -- taken away from Romney earlier in the year.


Mitt Romney led on all those issues and led on who can make something


happen. There is about 70% of the voters that are pocket book voters


that is the group of voters Mitt Romney has, on those really voting


for the economy. Which states, do you think, or the endless focus


upon a very, very small number of electorates, which state will


decide it tonight? Ohio. Do you agree? Ohio, I think you have to


watch it closely and Virginia, there has been late talk on


Virginia being very close. In terms of the Democrats maybe doing better


than expected. I would also say Wisconsin. We think we are going to


win Wisconsin. So the polls will close pretty shortly in Virginia,


in an hour's time. At that point we will be able to tell who has won


the presidency, we don't have to stay up all night! That is too


Earlly I think you will be able to tell. Who won -- early, I think you


will be able to tell who won the presidency, there is the state


closing and then the polls being done. I could tell you, you could


have this election dispued for a number of days -- dispued for a


number of days afterwards. There are ballots set aside not sure they


will be counted in Ohio, and a lot of dispute could go on here.


could be looking at something like Bush and Gore? Or more so. Even


worse, the new law in Ohio, is you have more provisional votes in


...I'm Sorry you have to explain what a provisional ballot is?


example, if you filed for an absentee ballot, didn't use t and


show up on election day, you set aside that ballot to make sure you


didn't vote twice. Provisional ballot. Somebody determines whether


or not that vote sellable, after the event? That's right. The new


law in Ohio is if you have too many provisional ballots they are all


set aside for ten days, and not touched. Which makes it even worse


than 2000. It is extraordinary how you people run things, people


standing for hours trying to get into a polling station. We think


the same thing. I thought we got it from you. Not this way of doing it.


Look forward to talking to you, when you have some hard


intelligence, I hope. The way the system work here, the fate of the


nation lies with the voters of a handful of states, the so-called


wing states, which Mark and our two pollsters were taking about. We


have reporters in three of them. First Richmond Virginia, a key


state Mitt Romney must capture to get to the White House. What is the


most interesting thing that happened there today? The most


interesting thing that has happened here today is people are queuing


and queuing for a long time to get to the poll. The turnout looks to


be high. Let as just deal with a few facts, there is a lot of


speculation, and a lot of impression, but the Virginia


Election Board, says it looks as though the turnout will be higher


than it was in 2008, and it was a record then. Conventional wisdom


says high turnout is good for the Democrats. Could it be that the


Romney campaign that has really managed to get the vote out. We


will know something in about an hour-and-a-quarter. It is


electronic voting, we should get an impression then. There are a couple


of key counties to look out for. If they have gone for Obama, it would


be a very significant victory and make it very, very difficult for


Romney to win, not only in Virginia, but the rest of the country as well.


So, if he wins in Virginia, he's probably going to win nationwide?


That is the speculation, and then you would say the money that has


been spent might well have been worth it. One statistic for you,


$131 million has been spent just here in Virginia, for probably


about four, four-and-a-half million voters who will go to the polls


today. That has brought 186,000 TV and radio ads, it has bought that.


When we went to the polling stations, a couple of students said


they couldn't watch television or listen to radio over the past two


week, because they couldn't bear any more adverts. It makes the UK


elections look like a nickle and dime store. Thank you very much.


Our correspondent following voters in Cleveland Ohio. What has excited


you there, Clive? I tell you what's excited me, the fact that all the


political ads have come to an end here. I have been here two days and


I'm fed up of them. Let me give you one statistic, 150,000 times, that


is the number of times that all President Obama's ads and those


groups backing him, have been shown on television here in Ohio over the


last few week. For Mitt Romney 41 ,162. If you strung all the ads


together, and ran them back-to-back, it would run for four-and-a-half


day. That is the horror show that is political campaigning in this


swing state. 18 Electoral College votes, both candidates, both


campaigns pushing for them for weeks and weeks and weeks, that is


why they spent a fortune and put so many ads out here. I'm not the only


one glad they are coming to an end in the state.


No wonder you have taken refuge in a pub! But if he doesn't win Ohio,


how much trouble is he in? Well, look, the thing about Ohio, it is


very difficult for a Republican to get to the White House, if they


don't win Ohio. The fact is the 18 Electoral College votes, because of


the way that Democrat votes and Republican votes are distributed


around the country. Ohio is the easiest way for Mitt Romney to get


to the White House F he doesn't win hoe Ohio, he has to get a


combination of other states that are perhaps leaning too far towards


the Democrats, therefore, it is virtually impossible for him to


close the deal and finish the job. For the President, for him, he's


looking to get Ohio, along with states like Wisconsin, and Iowa,


and these will provide what they have been calling a "firewall", a


protective firewall that would stop Mitt Romney getting the 250


Electoral College votes he needs. But it will be close. The polls


close in an hour-and-a-half, you have provisional ballots that might


not be counted for ten days. If it is a tight race it could go on for


weeks. Laura Trevelyan has been testing the mood from Miami in


Florida. Last night you spent an awfully long time refusing to call


it. Are you prepared to do so tonight, do you think? I'm going to


be reticent again, one thing I can tell you is there are a lot of


alligators in the swamplands in Miami, this had he -- if they had a


vote they would be dragged to the polls. It is fascinating today, I


have been racing around polling station, started first thing this


morning, meeting campaign workers, we are being spun 360 degrees.


Everybody telling me ernestly, they have it in the bag, Mitt Romney


winning by six, and Barack Obama nabbing the state and getting the


Electoral College. They can't both be right. If you look at until


recently in this state, he had a bit of a lead, here in Florida it


is very, very close. One estimate had both men on 49.75%. I'm sure


you can do the math, probably with me with my CSE can manage that one.


One thing for sure, if it is a very close result, within 0.5% of the


vote, there will be an automatic recount.


No more guff about alligators, what would tip the balance? Turnout, and


remember here in 2008, Republicans, like across the country, viewed it


as an historic election. They had eight years of George W Bush, they


were feeling demoralised. Some would have stayed home and Barack


Obama's vote turned out in huge numbers. If Republicans are feeling


this time very energised, remember this is a retirement state a lot of


elderly people, more than elsewhere in the country. If they come out,


that could tip the balance. One thing we did find out today, apart


from not speaking to alligators who can vote, is turnout here looks to


be very high indeed everywhere we went.


It is election day and Liberty City, Miami, these streets are some of


the most depriefd and dangerous in America. Gangwarfare is rife, and


murders are Monday and prospects are few. Yet the mood today is


upbeat. High turnout among black voters was


crucial to Barack Obama's 2008 victory. Democrats sigh it as a


firewall in defend -- see it as a firewall in defending the


presidency this time. Who are you voting for? Obama. Why? Because I


see he's for us, he's for us. Because I think he can make a


change. Mitt Romney, he want to take everything from us. The last


four years in the economic crisis have been particularly tough on


America's black community, which has suffered rising unemployment


and poverty. But in this neighbourhood, at this polling


station, the turnout seems just as high as it was in 2008. Outside the


polling station we met Sabrena, whose son, tref von, was gunned


down on his return to the shops. It resulted in race row in which the


President was involved. People have to have their voices heard, and


this is the only way to do it. you thinking about your son today?


I'm thinking about other people, I just want them out to vote. Also


outside was an electoral observer from the Obama campaign. Her job is


to make sure people aren't prevented from voting. Inside, a


lawyer from the Romney campaign was checking that only the eligible


were casting ballots. In polling stations across Miami, Democrats


and Republicans are watching the process intently, just waiting to


cry foul. The crisis from Florida's disputed election in 2000 run deep.


There seems to be lawyers from both parties circling. Like shark in the


water. Are people waiting for things to go I don't think? Yes. I


think people will file a grievance just on the thought that they may


have been infringed upon, they may have thought they were, as opposed


to something actually happening, just to make news and headlines.


Republicans say they are not trying to suppress turnout by monitoring


the voting, they are stopping fraud. In 08 there was widespread cheating,


a lot of people who weren't eligible voted and weren't alive


voted. Every poll will have at least two to three watchers from


each parties, making sure there is no discrepancy to when people turn


out to vote. Things were running smoothly until


they ran out of ballots mid- afternoon. Harrington's opponent is


not only the Congresswoman here, but the chair of the Democratic


National Committee. We have been through this in Florida before. 527


votes separated Al Gore from the presidency, we have, at the DNC,


had an early protection team in place, the voter protection team on


the ground here in Florida and the battleground states for months.


skirmishing is intense, because the prize here is so big. Florida's 29


votes are vital to Mitt Romney's hopes of winning, he has been


gaining ground here. If the President loses here in Florida,


can he still win the White House? Oh yeah. We have built the largest,


most significant grassroots presidential campaign in history.


And we have many path, many more paths than Mitt Romney has, to 270


electoral votes. We win Florida and it is game over. We win the


election. I'm planning for us to do that today. But there are other,


numerous other paths, and more paths than Mitt Romney has. We will


know the result in the sunshine state in a few hours time, or we


won't, if not it could take much longer to resolve.


Whatever happens in the long night looming ahead of us here, the


elections of 2012 are already notorious for their vagueness, and


brass-necked boon dogging. Where Democrats and Republicans go from


here, Eleanor Clift, and Jim Gilmore, we're joined from New York


by the writer, Martin Amis, who now lives here. Martin Amis, have you


been excited by the spectacle of this election? More frightened and


depressed than excited. What I can't understand is why it is close,


and it didn't looks a though it was going to be until three or four


weeks ago. Where Romney was widely ridiculed as a lousy candidate, and


couldn't get through a day without some atrocious gaffe. And then it


all got turned around by that first debate in Denver. I can't


understand why the impact of that was so great. It wasn't that Romney


was so eloquent, it was, I think, that Obama looked exhausted, and


his presidency looked exhausted. And there may even have been a hint


of contempt in the way he engaged with Romney. I don't think


Americans like that. It hasn't been pleasant watching Obama being


reduced from what he was in 2008, and I don't think the American


people have liked it either, that is why it is close, against all


rational interest, in my view. You, famously, quite recently,


decided you would prefer to live in America than in England, as it now


is, would you feel the same way under a Romney presidency? I would


be very depressed by a Romney presidency. I came here for


personal reasons, out of no disaffection for England, but I


have been thinking, in the last few week, that you know the Republicans


have got themselves in a state where the Reagan that they refer to


so ref vently, would, in fact, be a pariah in the present party. I


wonder if we could imagine a Conservative Party in England that


had got so far to the right that they would have to disown Margaret


Thatcher. It is quite extreme what is going on here. It is a kind of


hypocrisy. Tax cuts for the rich, there is not a democracy on earth


where that would be mentioned, let alone tabled and passed and given a


second term. And yet, they are pressing forward with that, even


though it is a long-exploded policy. It is as if they have lost a


certain amount of pou-d' err. OK, we will come back to you in a


moment. What has happened to your party that it can be characterised


in that way? I don't think most people would characterise it that


way. The Republican Party is very diverse, I'm a conservative, but


I'm not like every other conservative. There are a lot of


different points of view. But the heart of the matter, for this race,


is the question of the future. What actually should we be doing in


order to revitalise the American economy, get more jobs, get more


growth. And some how, in order to get the economy growing that it


just favours the rich, that is not right. We don't want tax cuts, but


tax incentive, so people will invest their capital, create


something exciting, new and dynamic, and we can get forward motion. That


is the theme of the Romney campaign. Where as the President has been


saying, I have been here for four years, give me more and things will


turn around. There has been no driving, forward motion with the


Obama campaign. That is why it is close. Eleanor Clift, you have seen


a good number of elections here, when you look at the state of the


Republican Party now, if Mitt Romney doesn't win it tonight,


where are they left? First of all, I don't think you have to go back


to President Lincoln, to find a Republican candidate to find it


difficult to survive in today's Republican Party. Go back to Ronald


Reagan, who did indeed raise taxes, the great conflict today is we have


gross inequality in this country, we have a huge deaf vit, and the


Republican Party just -- deficit, and Republican Party just remains


adamant on no new taxes on the upper income. If Romney loses an


election that many people thought he would win, because of the poor


economy. And because President Obama failed to meet the


expectations that he set for himself, and that the country


expected of him. I think one response will be that he wasn't,


Mitt Romney wasn't Conservative enough. I think there will be some


divisions within the party. I think there are enough, hate to use the


word "moderates", it is overdone, maybe "sensible", Republican,


especially in the Senate. Who are tired of voting against things they


actually believe in. The President himself says if he is re-elected,


the fever will break. He thinks they will work with him. I would


like to believe that as well. terms of election, generally, what


has this one been like? It doesn't feel like a real ground-breaking


election in the way that, for example, the last one was. These


big epocical changes, am I wrong, what do you think? If Romney wins,


I believe it is because the American people are tired of


mediocrity in the economy, they want something fresh and new, they


want some excitement. We understand our responsibility as Americans in


the world, and the work we have to do in order to lead and work with


allies. We can't do it with a week economy. I think Americans


understand all this, and they know that it hasn't worked over the last


four years. That kind of programme doesn't work. And I disagree with


Elinor about this notion that some how there is gross inequality in


the country. There are always going to be inequalities of income in


every free society, include tag in the United Kingdom. But the fact is,


what -- including that in the United Kingdom. But the fact s we


need to create investment and opportunities for people to have


forward motion, and rise above their stations in life they have,


and move forward. That is what the Republican ticket is about. Do you


think this was a really significant election? I think it is significant,


because if Mitt Romney is elected he would try to undo loot of what


President Obama has done, in terms it of regulation -- undo a lot of


what President Obama has done. In terms of regulation, and extending


universal healthcare. In terms of restraints on the business


community, in the wake of the overreach of the creating of the


meltdown in 2008. I think Mitt Romney talks about this forward


motion of the economy, he hasn't told us how he would do that.


Except, to direct more money to the called job creators, who have been


doing very well the whole first decade of this century, and they


haven't created the jobs. So, I don't see what Romney represent,


except an attempt to undo some of the measures that have introduced


some equality into the society. According to the polls he means a


lot to quite a lot of people, perhaps just a majority? We are a


divided country. The 50-50 country in all of that. But look at the


Republican Party, it is 90% white, the Democratic that returns to


Congress after the election will be 50% minority and women. Which party


is America? Martin Amis, what do you think we should make of the


possibility that President Obama might, according to the polls, lose


this election? What do we make of it? We should salute the deeper


rationality of the American people. There are many vins of severe


rationality. We should -- vein of severe rationalty. We should blush


for a future Romney, who believes the return of Christ will divide


his time between Jerusalem and Missouri, will be the leader of the


free world. Thank you all very much indeed. That's it for the moment,


back shortly, now over to you. For all the people who say they


were abused, in or around children's homes in North Wales,


only to have their complaints ignored, a message today from the


Government, "we will listen to you". The Home Secretary has announced a


police inquiry into the last police inquiry, and a judge will lead an


inquiry into the last judicial inquiry. Inquiries are spreading


fast. In a moment we will discuss whether a desire to make up for


past wrongs risks making more mistakes. First this report.


For many years now, former residents of children's homes in


North Wales, have alleged they were abused by a paedophile-ring in the


1970s and 1980s. In 1991, seven care workers were convicted of


abuse, the allegations of a ring persisted. The Government set up an


inquiry, its report concluded there was no evidence of a paedophile-


ring, beyond the care system. Former residents, witnesses at that


inquiry, and their lawyers, have claimed it was too limited in its


scope. It was to inquiry into the abuse of


children in care in the former County Council areas of grin ned


and Clwyd since 1974 -- Gwynedd and Clwyd since 1974, and focus on


those responsible for the children. The police inquiries were also said


to be flawed. Theresa May said there was to be an inquiry into


that York. One of the victims in the report, Steve Meesham, alleged


the inquiry didn't look at abuse outside the care homes and a


renewed allegations against the police and several individuals.


The Government is treating these allegations with the utmost


seriousness. Child abuse is a hateful, abhorrent, and disgusting


crime, we must not allow these allegations to go unanswered. And I


therefore urge anybody who has information, relating to these


allegations, to go to the police. The head of the national crime


agency is to investigate any fresh allegations, and look at the way


the police handled the original complaints. They will be helped by


the Serious and Organised Crime Agency, or SOCA, and child


exploitation -- the Child Exploitation and Online Protection


Centre, CEOP, and a judge will review and secretary the verpls of


the Waterhouse Inquiry. Some police officers say things are very


different now. If we have made a mistake, I think we have to be


honest about it. Times have changed, we are a given force, a different


generation that deal with the cases now, than the ones investigating it


now. Things have moved on, things have changed. I don't think there


will be any issue about people coming and telling us issues that


might involve ex-officers, or politicians. I don't think there is


going to be any issue about that. Some say that these reviews are


themselves too narrow. Mr Speaker, the lesson of Hillsborough, and


hacking is that a narrowed down investigation is the basic building


block of a cover-up, to limit this inquiry to North Wales and Savile,


would, in my view, be a deriliction of the Home Secretary's duty. It


would guarantee that many sickening crimes would remain uninvestigated,


and some of the most despicable paedophiles will remain protected


by the establishment that has shielded them for 30 years. Others


say the new inquiries are unwarranted. If you look at the


terms of reference, right at the beginning of the inquiry, and which


I have read. They were looking at abuse of children in care. They


heard evidence from a number of witnesses. They had all been in


care, or some people had been social workers and some outside the


care system. They weren't restricted, really, in looking at


children being abused in a particular care home. They looked


specifically at children being taken out of the care system or


homes and being abused in hostels or hotel or whatever it may be.


These allegations are abhorrent, the abuse despicable, the strong


language of politicians expresses a widely felt revelgsvulgs. But


securing convictions in these cases are very difficult, even though


police forces pursue them harder than in the past. 20 years ago


Clwyd Council commissioned a report on the alleged abuse, Karen Lumley


was a councillor then, she read it, and remembers crying a lot at the


detailed accounts, thinking of her own young children. She understands


the strong reaction now. Yes, I think the initial reaction is, how


does that happen? How do ordinary human beings do that kind of thing?


And my initial reaction is how do we punish them. Even 20 years on f


we find people, we should be punishing them. It is not fair that


we have let those young people down. And what of the people at the heart


of this? The victims of many years of abuse. Steve Meesham says he was


confident the Government was taking them seriously. But he wasn't yet


confident the investigations would be done properly. With us, Malcolm


Johnson, the solicitor we saw in that report, and from Belfast, Jim


Gamble, the former head of the police's Child Exploitation and


Online Protection Centre. The experience of many victims is


they feel let down by the system, institutions and people they went


to. Can those people have any more confidence now? I think they can


have a lot more confidence now. One of the positive legacys from the


Savile investigation, is that people are being much more victim-


centered. We are thinking about what we do. I think many of us


involved in the child protection world, formally and informally, now


think about the language we use. I was contacted by a former victim


after my last appearance, who really didn't like the use of the


term "historic", when I reflect on that, they are absolutely right,


these victims aren't historic, they are suffering every single day. The


abuse inflicted on them, may be many years ago, because they feel


they haven't got justice. I think there is a real change. This is a


real change in mind set, I do believe one of the poss is, more


victims are up -- positives is more victims are coming forward. Has the


Waterhouse Inquiry been unfairly maligned? I think it is, it was an


extensive inquiry, that took place over many months, and interviewed


many hundreds of witnesses. The allegations is children taken out


of care homes and abused in hotels and so on. They say they weren't


listened to? They say so, but if you look at the terms of the


inquiry and it examined, they were listened to. But the inquiry,


unfortunately, showed the evidence wasn't strong enough to show a


major paedophile conspiracy. What is the point of the inquiry?


would ask that question. I feel there is political impetuous behind


this and politicians feel they need to do something. I would question


whether the resources are best put into another child protection issue,


rather than this, which has been investigated. You worry this is


political activity for the sake of it? I do, I'm afraid. I think the


Waterhouse house -- Waterhouse Inquiry did go into these issues,


it was sensitively handedled, I think they felt they had to leave


no stone unturned. With the police investigation there were a number


of conviction as well. To my mind I was rather surprised there would be


an inquiry into the inquiry. Just to get your view on this, the terms


of reference, and what the Waterhouse Inquiry did. As far as


you are concerned, were the allegations about activities


outside children's homes themselves, properly investigated? That's the


key issue. We don't know. There is an issue of perception and


confidence in those people now watching what happens. There are


several things need to happen, there needs to be a scoping, to


look at the voracity of the allegation against that particular


inquiry. I think we are getting very mixed up, I think the


Government in launching different inquiries in different areas, is


perhaps simply going to congest the space. Do you think some of this is


political, by the way? I'm not sure it is political, I think the


Government feels a need to react and use strong language. Isn't that


political? Let me say this, in child protection you learn to pause


and plan. I think there is a lack of pausing and planning here. We


have had Savile, there needs to be a single overarching inquiry, the


shadow Home Secretary, Yvette Cooper, has said that, and we have


heard Tim Loughton say that. I couldn't agree with them more. The


issues that deal with individual allegations of potential crime,


need to be dealt with effectively by the police. This week I actually


felt like standing up and applauding when Keith Towler, the


Children's Commissioner from Wales, came out and advocated on behalf of


victims in the way he did. We don't see that often enough. There needs


to be a balance, there needs to be an overarching review that looks at


the lessons that can be learned and how they can be applied across a


broad geography, in health, education, policing and care. There


needs to be individual scoping, by police investigations, to look at


other reasonable grounds to suspects offences. There is 28


people referred to in the report. Where are they today, did they


commit other offences, were they ever placed on the sex offenders'


register, any time nurture. That will give you a sense of how


effective that investigation of. Would you support an overarching


inquiry, you talked about the investigation not going ahead?


child protection it is an enormously delicate issue. If you


have a scatter gun approach with inquiries, you won't get anywhere


at all. What about one big inquiry? I don't think it would assist, I


don't think there should be another inquiry into these allegations. If


the Government has decided there has to be, then there has to be. I


question seriously whether it will make a difference to the victims.


You would just leave it? I think I would, yes. What about the victims?


Well, again I would say, those victims gave their allegations to


the inquiry at the time. They are saying they weren't listened to,


but if you read the terms of the inquiry, they were all listened. To


but unfart Natalie, the inquiries cop -- unfortunately, the inquiry


concluded there wasn't enough evidence to take the allegations


forward. The police already investigated the matters. The


history of the North Wales inquiry is the police were fairly


aggressive in their investigation, I'm not sure they come in for a


great deal of criticism. Thank you very much. With more on the main


news, here's Jeremy. We still have our pollsters here.


What are the exit polls showing? The early exit polls are showing


Obama up a couple of points in most states. Do you agree on that?


Supposedly they are. Several of the measures that she was getting of


the first run, they do three runs, 10.00, 2.00, and 5.00. She was


looking at some of the first run and some of the second run.


Republicans usually turn out later in the day, as opposed to on return


from work rather than going to work. Is there anything you have


discovered with turnout and exit polls that gives comfort to Romney?


In Ohio, on the early vote, now that is done. We had a 100,000-vote


increase on the Republican side, 100,000-vote decrease on the


Democrat side, in a state Obama won last time but only 239,000 voit.


Election day becomes that much more -- votes. Election day becomes that


much more important. Reports are election is turnout is high, apart


from Cleveland? That is the state they have to come out with from a


big margin. We have heard, since them, they are trying to push the


Democratic vote out. But the provisional ballots are increase


anything that area. Have you heard the same thing? Yes, that


originally clove land was lower turnout, but we are pushing it.


That would be bad news for Obama? It will be, if we don't get it


picked up in the last few hours. long night. We will be here


tomorrow night, working out what the result, when eventually we get


it, means for America and the rest of you. Meantime there were claims


earlier today that a voting machine in Pennsylvania, that every time


you voted for Obama, it registered Romney, if it was true, it was like


life imitating art. One vote for McCain, thank you. No, I want to


vote for Obama. Two votes for McCain. Come on, it's time for a


change. Three votes for McCain. votes for President McCain. I only


meant one of those votes for McCain. This machine is rigged. Must tell


President McCain. This doesn't happen in America,


maybe Ohio, but not in America! maybe Ohio, but not in America!


Ahhhh. Chilly out there, patchy rain and


drizzle around western areas, further east a little brightness,


sunshine at times. Certainly dry and bright across eastern areas, we


saw through the afternoon. North West England, for instance, exposed


to that strengthening west low wind, continuing rain and drizzle at the


time. Through the Pennines gusty winds. Not as much sunshine through


the east Midland. Some brighter spells at times. Cloud amounts will


always be fairly large. Particularly across west Devon, and


western Wales, don't be surprised to see further rain or drizzle


continue from the morning. The wind continue to strengthen during the


day, it is a fairly mild wind, temperatures of 9-12 possible. That


will be tempered by the strength of the wind. That wind continues to


feed in occasional dampness across Northern Ireland. Rain or drizzle


throughout the day at times in the west of Scotland, brighter to the


east. Aberdeenshire, Angus and Fife. The difference between Wednesday


and Thursday will not be a great deal. If anything the winds may


ease down a little bit after a breezy neat. Brightness across


eastern and southern parts, certainly around western coasts and


hills we will see further rain and drizzle at times. Western Scotland


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