US Election Special Newsnight


US Election Special

In-depth investigation and analysis of the stories behind the day's headlines. With Jeremy Paxman in Washington.


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It's not what you would call a ringing endorsement, but Barack

:00:13.:00:16.

Obama's election machine delivered the required results, so he stays

:00:16.:00:21.

in the White House, and so gets to face this country's awful economic

:00:21.:00:25.

crisis, while Mitt Romney gets to spend more time with his money, and

:00:25.:00:33.

his magic underpants. It may look like more of the same.

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And tonight, despite all the hardship we have been through,

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despite all the frustrations of Washington, I have never been more

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hopeful about our stpurture. There is -- Future. There is hard

:00:49.:00:54.

business to attend to and urgently. Mitt Romney was gracious in defeat.

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At a time like this we can't risk partisan bickering and political

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posturing, our leaders have to reach across the ail to do the

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people's work. But his failure -- Aisle to do the people's work.

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his defeat leaves the right wondering what can they get people

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to buy into. They have to empower people. They have to find a way to

:01:22.:01:27.

make conservative principles more attractive to that demographic.

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Among our guest, Clark Judge, speechwriter for Republican

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Presidents in the past. And a Dean, who once thought he was the best

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Democratic hope for the White House at one time.

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At first glance, a visitor from outer space might wonder what all

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the fuss is about, $6 billion spent, and same bloke is in the White

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House and the country is still $16 trillion in debt. The Republican

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challenge for the presidency failed and while a couple of men with

:02:01.:02:05.

crackpot views on rape also failed to get elected today Congress, the

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political complex of the legislature has hardly change --

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complexion, of the legislature has hardly changed. We have a sumry

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first up, a pretty well-managed campaign by Obama, it delivered?

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Very well managed, strategyy targeted and often quite negative

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in the stone. The difference between the popular vote between

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the two men, around about 1%. The difference in the Electoral College,

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more like 33%, 34%. They went to the battleground states, they

:02:38.:02:42.

blitzed the ad, two or three-times as many as Mitt Romney's people.

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They fought the perception that on the economy was weak, instead

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turning it negative, running ads about Mitt Romney firing people

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when he was running Bain Capital, to the point where one comedian

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said, he looks like the guy who fired your dad. What do we make of

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America from this election? A great deal about division, polarisation,

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the way the electorate divides into different cohorts. You mentioned

:03:12.:03:18.

the Senate race, the issue of rape cost those two Senors their jobs.

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And derailed Republican' tempts to take control of the Senate. The

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house of rep -- attempts to take control of the Senate. The house of

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representatives still showing the views that proved so threaten to go

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President Obama, and trouble ahead. For the moment people are still

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focusing on the momentous events of last night.

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Barack Obama's first term may have disappointed many Americans. But

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you would hardly have known it. His campaign workers in Chicago, had

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laid on a particularer tape welcome for a moment of crowning triumph.

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Re-election, vindication, and a powerful lesson in America's new

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electoral politics. We are not as divided as our

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politics suggests. We're not as cynical as the pundits believe. We

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are greater than the sum of our individual ambitions, and we remain

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more than a collection of red states and blue state, we are and

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forever will be the United States of America.

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Battleground states proved decisive again, and never mind shares of the

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national vote. Mitt Romney had to win most of them. Ohio, Virginia,

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Wisconsin, Colorado, Iowa and New Hampshire, all went for Obama

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instead. Only North Carolina and Indiana chose the Republican

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candidate. Florida, that other key battleground remains too close to

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call, but it is clear that the Democrats targetsed -- targeted the

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swing states and ran a superb campaign. They had a tremendous

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volunteer turnout, they used technology in smart ways. If you

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were on Facebook yesterday, and signed into their app, every ten

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minutes, for most of the afternoon and evening, it would recommend a

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new set of people they wanted you to go and talk to in that swing

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state. Remind your friends to do this or that. That targeting of

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people, that sort of getting in people's, getting people to focus

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on reaching out to their friend, is really the critical thing. But they

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organised it all, in a very efficient way. At polling stations

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in Virginia, yesterday, our random survey confirmed this country's

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shifting electoral dynamics. The Republicans seemed too much like a

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party of angry white men, the Democrats had tailored their

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message better to women and ethnic minorities. At the end of the day,

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you have to draw the line down the centre of the paper and write

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what's good about this one and what is good about the other one, Obama

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had the longer list of good things. Four more years, that is definitely

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what I'm looking for, I'm so excited, thank you, Obama!

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The ethnic vote is increasingly important. Black voters were a key

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constituency for Barack Obama, in states like Virginia, where they

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represent 20% of the population, and 93% of them voted Obama. But

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the Hispanic vote is growing faster, and voting more Democrat, for

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example, in the Colorado battleground, 74% of Latinos voted

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Obama, up from 61% last time. So he won, despite the white vote

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increasing for Mitt Romney. And the demographic trends are visible even

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between elections. Ohio contained 4% fewer white voters than in 2008,

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and 4% more black ones. What you saw for the first time in 30 years,

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yesterday, was a set of social issues, the women's issues and gay

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rights, actually helping Democrats. In presidential election after

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election, going back to 1984, social issues like abortion, and

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crime and welfare, and gay marriage, have been used as bludgeons to

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attack Democrat. But as attitudes have changed, as the population has

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shifted, there has been an enormous change in the way people view, for

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example, the rights of gays and lesbian, that has had a huge impact

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on electoral politics too, that will probably continue.

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As the night wore on, in New York's times square, the scale of the

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victory became clearer to those who had gathered. But the challenger

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waited until the early hours before appearing in front of supporters in

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Boston to concede defeat. Thank you, thank you. I so wish, I so wish

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that I had been able to fulfil your hopes to lead the country in a

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different direction, but the nation chose another leader, and so Ann

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and I join with you to ernestly pray for him and for this great

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nation. Thank you and God bless America, you guys are the best,

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thank you so much. At the end of it all, though, the

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Republican candidate was weak and so was his message. Despite being

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around 80% white, Wisconsin, Ohio and Pennsylvania, all stayed

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Democrat. Mitt Romney increased the Republican white share of the vote,

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but never above 57%. Mitt Romney had picked Paul Ryan from Wisconsin

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as his running mate, in Anne tempt to nail it. But in states -- in an

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attempt to nail it. But in states where union membership was above

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the national average, the President's help to the car

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industry and active base did it. The labour unions are amongst the

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heaviest spenders in American politics and highist constituents.

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In Pennsylvania and Ohio and Michigan, they provided a firewall.

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What you see is when you remember the angry white voter, if he's a

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union member, he behaves very differently electorally. That has a

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huge impact on the way that electorate works. So I would point

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to that phenomenon in particular, to understand why those states

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played out the way they did. In particular Wisconsin and Ohio, the

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issue of the autobail out was compelling. These are places with

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some of -- out toe bail out were compelling, -- auto bail out was

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xelgs. These are places of some of the biggest plants.

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It was a big banker or Obama, but it is also somewhere that was once

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solidly Republican, but which, with a candidate so influenced by the

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party's white wing idealogs, Mr Romney just couldn't win. The big

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thing is to be careful not to play to your base in the primaries, and

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hurt yourself in the general. The Romney people, in the die ex-

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section of their campaign, they will look -- desection of their

:10:25.:10:29.

campaign, they will look back and see they made enormous mistakes in

:10:29.:10:39.
:10:39.:10:39.

the primaries, going to the Rick Perry, on immigration, by angered

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latteenys. They really cling clainged.

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By the time -- Those things really clanged. By the time President

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Obama leaves in 2016, the Republicans may offer the country

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something very different. Until then, Mr Obama will occupy office,

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facing challenges every bit as daunting as those of his first time.

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The former Vermont governor, Howard Dean, ran for the Democrat

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nomination for presidency in 2004, Andrew Sullivan is a New York-based

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writer, columnist and blogger, he joins us from there. Howard Dean,

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first off, this isn't really glad, confident morning, is it? It is not

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that kind of inheritance? It is, actually. I tell you why, obviously

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the President had a great victory, and to add two seats in the Senate

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is extraordinary. No-one in Washington thought that was going

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to happen. But the really big reason is, I think that this

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signals the end of the culture wars in this country. It won't be the

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end of the war, the right-wing will still fight rear guard actions,

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butt question for four states to essentially approve gay marriage,

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on ballot, never happened before in this country. I think that

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discussion and debate is over. There will be further discussion,

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but it won't be brought up in the campaigns. Abortion rights. This is

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the first time in my memory, this is the first time, period, that any

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candidate for President, on the Democratic side, has stood up and

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fought for abortion rights and gay rights in the campaign. And he won,

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and convincingly. Andrew Sullivan, what do you think we learned about

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America from this election? I think, firstly, one critical thing, which

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is the big original thing that Barack Obama did, was get America

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to universal healthcare. That was something that Presidents from

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Johnson, all the way through to Clinton had wanted, including Nixon.

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This election made that irreversible. That is a huge step

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for the United States of America. They not only re-elected a black

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President, but backed universal healthcare for everybody. That will

:12:46.:12:56.
:12:56.:12:56.

not be undone. I think that is huge. I agrie, this is a fundamental

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alignment. You have a permanent Democratic majority out there,

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represented by the young and the minorities, especially women, that

:13:04.:13:07.

is beginning to lock as if the Republican Party will not be able

:13:07.:13:11.

to overcome it in the near or immediate or distant future. That

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is a huge realignment for Obama. He's the Democrat's Ronald Reagan,

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his impact will be that profound. They won't try to overcome it any

:13:26.:13:29.

more, the right-wing will, and they have a significance influence in

:13:29.:13:33.

the primaries, but the Republicans will concentrate on the economic

:13:33.:13:39.

issues, the only way to get voters under-35. There is a big market for

:13:39.:13:44.

a successful Republican Party in future, it can't include being

:13:44.:13:51.

anti- Islam, anti- women and anti- anything. Do you think President

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Obama is able to be more radical in his second term? I don't think he

:13:55.:14:00.

will, he wasn't in the first time. That's not his nature, he is a

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centrist, he is somebody who wants to bring people together. He will

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do that. I think he will take flack from my wing of the party as a

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result. Andrew Sullivan? Yes, I think so

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too. I think Barack Obama's essentially what we used to call a

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moderate Republican. He won a lot of people who call themselves

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moderates in this election. The Republican Party is an outliar in

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the entire best on almost -- outlier on the entire election. It

:14:33.:14:37.

believes climate change is a hoax, it thinks that gay people need to

:14:37.:14:45.

be kept in a second-class status permanently. We have had a

:14:46.:14:49.

Republican Party trapped in a bubble of its own creation, it has

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burst and this is a reality we see in front of us. This is America, it

:14:52.:14:56.

is Barack Obama's America. He proved last night that he really is

:14:56.:15:01.

the American in this race. Because, for the first time, he represents

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America, not the guy who looks like the dream of the American President

:15:06.:15:12.

from 1958, but this coffee-coloured, complicated black and white Midwest

:15:12.:15:17.

and Hawaiian, stranger and total friend, has become the face of

:15:17.:15:21.

America. And that's a significant and enormous shift in this

:15:21.:15:25.

country's culture. That is a heck of a task he's

:15:25.:15:31.

taking on at this time? He's ideally suited to do it. I think

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this is a momentous time in American history. Andrew's like,

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re-elected an African-American President is almost more important

:15:40.:15:47.

in elected him the first time. Here is what Americans just rejected, we

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rejected racism, homophobia, we rejected misogyny, and we stand for

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a diverse nation. I think that's an, we have a affirmed the American

:15:55.:15:58.

dream, in terms of what we wrote about in the constitution when we

:15:58.:16:03.

raised the bar on human rights. And, I think this is an extraordinary

:16:03.:16:09.

moment in American history. I really do. What do you think that

:16:09.:16:15.

recognition, just a second, will do to the challenges that he faces.

:16:15.:16:20.

These enormous, complicated challenges, let's leave aside the

:16:20.:16:24.

monetary crises in this country, Iran, the Middle East, these are

:16:24.:16:28.

really difficult times? They are very difficult times. The Iranians,

:16:28.:16:33.

this is the first President who has had a significant effect on Iran.

:16:33.:16:37.

The sanctions are hurting Iran, we need to continue. I'm a hardliner

:16:37.:16:44.

on Iran, it is a dangerous country with untrustworthy leadership. He's

:16:44.:16:47.

choking them off financially we can't have boots on the ground in

:16:47.:16:51.

Iran, we have been in Iraq for 11 years and Afghanistan for more, we

:16:51.:16:55.

can't. He's doing something and he's tough about it. I think

:16:55.:16:58.

eventually that will prevail. Pakistan is a more difficult

:16:58.:17:03.

problem, because it is the internal nature of the politics is so

:17:03.:17:06.

incredibly complicated, we can't straighten it out, we can certainly

:17:06.:17:10.

provide guidelines and some kind of walling off of their influence if

:17:10.:17:17.

we can, and the rest of the Muslim world. Supporting the Arab Spring,

:17:17.:17:23.

very smart thing to do. We stopped the historical American policy of

:17:23.:17:26.

supporting dictator, no matter how awful they were, as long as they

:17:26.:17:30.

were our friend. That is a lot of work to do there, and it is an

:17:30.:17:35.

important thing for America to do. You are sounding like a man who

:17:35.:17:38.

would like the job of Secretary of State, that job will be available

:17:38.:17:40.

too? Thank you very much, I appreciate that. Andrew Sullivan,

:17:40.:17:44.

what do you think will be the impact on the world stage of this

:17:44.:17:49.

second term? I think it is enormous. What we are threatening to happen,

:17:49.:17:55.

with Mitt Romney, in alliance with Binyamin Nethanyahu, was really a

:17:55.:17:58.

global religious conflict on steroids, if you weren't careful.

:17:58.:18:01.

The image that would have been sent in the direction of foreign policy,

:18:01.:18:06.

would have been dramatically back towards a Cheney-like position.

:18:06.:18:11.

Romney, for example, wanted to bring back waterboarding, torture,

:18:11.:18:14.

for example, into the American Government. That will not happen

:18:14.:18:19.

now America will remain what it has been for the last four years, which

:18:19.:18:24.

is, it's traditional internationalist position, without

:18:24.:18:30.

the unilateralism and triesism that accompanied Dick Cheney. That is a

:18:30.:18:34.

big deal with respect to the rest of the world. As to Israel, the

:18:34.:18:37.

only chance at this point that Israel has of getting a two-state

:18:37.:18:42.

solution, which will save it from demographic annihilation, is

:18:42.:18:46.

President Obama. He started from day one to try to get this fixed,

:18:46.:18:52.

he's still absolutely insistent it happen, I think we may see some

:18:52.:18:55.

surprises in the next couple of years, in terms it of Israel's

:18:55.:18:58.

self-understanding, and Israelis beginning to realise this man can't

:18:58.:19:03.

be run over, and we may have to deal with him, we may also save

:19:03.:19:06.

ourselves in the process. That is a very interesting point.

:19:06.:19:09.

The point that Andrew is making essentially is now Nethanyahu knows

:19:09.:19:14.

who he has to live with for the rest of his primeship. Now he may

:19:14.:19:24.

be a bit more -- prime ministership. It is a personal problem between

:19:24.:19:25.

President Obama and Binyamin Nethanyahu. Binyamin Nethanyahu

:19:25.:19:29.

realises who he has to deal with, and Andrew is exactly right about

:19:29.:19:32.

the problem in the Middle East. If they continue to occupy the

:19:32.:19:36.

territories, that is bad for Israel, let alone the Palestinians, because

:19:36.:19:41.

it has this ethnic, or demographic timebomb. Israel can't be from the

:19:41.:19:46.

Jordan to the Mediterranean, and be a democracy at the same time. They

:19:46.:19:49.

want very much to be a democracy. Gentlemen, thank you very much. We

:19:49.:19:53.

will be back with you in a moment or two. When you look at what

:19:53.:19:55.

President Obama has to deal with, it is sometimes hard to see why he

:19:55.:20:00.

wanted to keep the job. We will come to his biggest problem shortly,

:20:00.:20:03.

consider the Republican challenge. No surprise, perhaps, that nine out

:20:03.:20:07.

of ten black voters went with Obama, but the figures also show that

:20:07.:20:12.

women, who make up over half the electorate, Hispanic Americans, an

:20:12.:20:16.

increasing force in this country, overwhelmingly too went for him. In

:20:16.:20:20.

the words of one Republican senator, "they aren't generating enough

:20:20.:20:24.

angry white guys to stay in business for the long-term". Where

:20:24.:20:29.

do they go from here? One for Laura Trevelyan in Florida.

:20:29.:20:33.

Miami night life, but not as you imagine it. Florida Republicans

:20:33.:20:39.

huddled around Fox News last night, anxiously monitoring the results.

:20:39.:20:44.

Then this. The key moment of the evening.

:20:44.:20:47.

President Obama will win the crucial battleground state of Ohio.

:20:47.:20:51.

Not only did Mitt Romney fail to win the White House, it was clear

:20:51.:20:56.

the party performed lamentably with Hispanic and women voters. They

:20:57.:21:00.

need to communicate better the positions and explain that it is

:21:00.:21:03.

not, it is not like, that they believe in the Stone Age for women,

:21:03.:21:10.

they want to empower people. Typically it is Mexicans, Porto

:21:10.:21:12.

Ricans, the three big Hispanic nationalties in this country, they

:21:13.:21:18.

have to find way to communicate and make conservative principles more

:21:18.:21:22.

attractive to those groups. They may think it is simple, but the

:21:22.:21:25.

Republican Party's dominant TEA Party base doesn't agree. We have

:21:25.:21:31.

to become a more righteous nation. That's right. We have to become,

:21:31.:21:34.

understanding the difference between liberty and freedom and

:21:34.:21:40.

tyranny. Tired and emotional activists began haranguing a

:21:41.:21:46.

Congressman. As a battle looms between the party's idealo gs and

:21:46.:21:51.

pra mat tiss, some say it is time to reach out to a natural

:21:51.:21:56.

constituency. The Republican Party needs to do a better job of

:21:56.:22:00.

communicating to a lot of the, say the Hispanic community in the

:22:00.:22:04.

United States, which shares a lot of Republican Party values, but the

:22:05.:22:08.

Republican Party, in years past, has, I think, very aggressively

:22:08.:22:12.

said things that have hurt, and have caused a lot of damage

:22:12.:22:15.

politically. The face of this nation is changing.

:22:15.:22:21.

In 30 years time, one in three Americans will be Hispanic.

:22:21.:22:24.

Republicans fear this demographic shift could give Democrats a lock

:22:24.:22:30.

on national elections. As Florida goes, so goes the nation. For a lot

:22:30.:22:35.

of different reasons it is multilingualism, multiculturalism,

:22:35.:22:39.

the melting pot status of flour ka, the US is turning that way

:22:39.:22:44.

everywhere, -- Florida, it is turning that way everywhere, but we

:22:44.:22:50.

are faster on all fronts. Some say the Republican's electoral strategy

:22:50.:22:56.

is too focused on the white vote, which is shrinking. Back in 2004

:22:56.:23:04.

George W Bush actually won 40% of the Hispanic vote, since then, the

:23:04.:23:06.

party's rightward shift, particularly on immigration, has

:23:06.:23:10.

alienated this growing section of modern America. So what's to be

:23:10.:23:15.

done. We found the best analysis of the Republican's dilemma with

:23:15.:23:21.

voters, on the beach. Did you vote Republican? No I did not, mam.

:23:21.:23:26.

not? Honestly I don't agree with any of his positions, on healthcare

:23:26.:23:31.

especially, and anything with the middle-class. Republicans perform

:23:31.:23:39.

really badly among the Latino vote, does that surprise you? In my

:23:39.:23:45.

experience most Latinos are Republican kan, but vote Democrat

:23:45.:23:51.

because of the immigration issues. This was the last election where

:23:51.:23:59.

there even was a chance without the minority vote, and they lost

:23:59.:24:03.

because of it, that and women. The social issues are the problem for

:24:03.:24:09.

the GOP right now. As Republicans reflect on how best to court

:24:09.:24:14.

Hispanics, there will be an early test of how best to put their

:24:14.:24:17.

position. President Obama wants immigration reform, Republicans

:24:17.:24:23.

must soon decide how far to go. From Andrew Sullivan is still in

:24:23.:24:28.

New York for us. Here with me is Clark Judge, speechwriter for many

:24:28.:24:34.

a Republican President. What do you think, was wrong with the Romney

:24:34.:24:38.

proposition? Well, I'm not sure what was wrong, but how it was done.

:24:38.:24:44.

It didn't work, did it? Let's look at the totality of this election.

:24:44.:24:47.

Three branches, political branches of the US Government were up. The

:24:47.:24:51.

Democrats won the Senate, conshrisingly. The Republicans --

:24:51.:24:56.

convincingly. The Republicans won the House, also convincingly. The

:24:56.:24:59.

popular vote for the President more or less divided. What does that

:24:59.:25:03.

mean? There were a lot of ticket- spliter, there had to be to have an

:25:03.:25:07.

outcome like that. So what are they saying to us? They are saying, they

:25:07.:25:12.

are a little bit like your boss calling you in. Maybe another

:25:12.:25:14.

reporter in, and saying what do you think about this story, and you

:25:14.:25:19.

have one story and he has the other. Your boss leans back and says, I

:25:19.:25:23.

don't want to hear about this, you guys get together, figure it out,

:25:23.:25:28.

and make it work. That's what American people said to us, to the

:25:28.:25:33.

whole political establishment. President Obama, or rather Governor

:25:33.:25:41.

Romney tried to make this an election about economics. President

:25:41.:25:45.

Obama tried to make it about social issues, and they both succeeded,

:25:45.:25:49.

but with different groups within the population. Andrew Sullivan,

:25:49.:25:52.

according to that analysis the culture wars aren't over, are they?

:25:52.:25:56.

No they are not. The reason for that is that the Republican Party

:25:56.:26:02.

is not a traditional political party, that has making up its mind,

:26:02.:26:05.

based upon its rational self- interest. It is a fundamentalist

:26:05.:26:09.

religious party, whose position on a whole bunch of these issues is

:26:09.:26:16.

based upon fundamentalist, Protestant religion, that is a kind

:26:16.:26:20.

of ideology and theology that makes it extremely hard to change without

:26:20.:26:23.

some kind of meltdown. That is what we have to see first. The

:26:23.:26:28.

Republican Party has to get theself away from being a primarily

:26:28.:26:33.

religious movement, into becoming, once again, a more pragmatic,

:26:33.:26:38.

political movement. Keep those profound issues about whose God is

:26:38.:26:42.

true, and what we should do in our private lives, leave that to civil

:26:42.:26:46.

society, and tell us how conservatives want to tackle our

:26:46.:26:53.

practical, secular problems, growth, the budget, taxes, healthcare. I

:26:53.:26:58.

think that's their problem. How do you get religious fanatics to

:26:58.:27:00.

become political pragmatist, when you have handed over your entire

:27:00.:27:09.

party to them. That takes years to overcome. Well, what Andrew has

:27:09.:27:14.

said, I imagine he must have liked Mr Romney, because that's all Mr

:27:14.:27:21.

Romney talked about since the convention. He was talking about

:27:21.:27:25.

the budget, taxes, energy policy, he was talking about all of these

:27:25.:27:31.

kinds of things. Now, what went wrong? Some of it, I hate to say

:27:31.:27:34.

this, because I know it is not the theme here. Some of it was pretty

:27:34.:27:38.

much how they ran their campaign. President Obama ran a superb

:27:38.:27:43.

campaign, started very early, established his themes a year ago,

:27:43.:27:47.

and was consistent all the way through. Mr Romney didn't really

:27:47.:27:53.

get to his themes until the convention, and then didn't really

:27:53.:27:58.

well articulate them until the debate. Very late. That was a big

:27:58.:28:03.

problem, he never really caught up with the President. But do you see

:28:03.:28:09.

no need for an ideolgical redefinition or rerepresentation of

:28:09.:28:15.

the party? I have been hearing this all day about the re-representation.

:28:15.:28:19.

They split the popular vote, and the two parties split the

:28:19.:28:23.

lengthsure, the Congress. So -- legislature, the Congress. There

:28:23.:28:28.

are problems whenever you redefine a group, a party. You jettison some

:28:28.:28:32.

groups, even as you try to pick up others. Those others have

:28:32.:28:35.

allegiances to the other party, why should they come over to you. You

:28:35.:28:39.

look for the group inbetween, and that group inbetween has been

:28:39.:28:47.

moving back and forth. Mr Obama was largely more effective at

:28:47.:28:50.

articulating his message, and particularly his social issue

:28:51.:28:54.

messages to the groups that most cared about it. That's the

:28:54.:28:57.

difference here. Andrew Sullivan, you have laid out very clearly what

:28:57.:29:01.

you think the party has to do, are there people prominent in the party,

:29:01.:29:07.

who would make a better candidate embodying those beliefs? There was

:29:07.:29:12.

one, this time round. A man called Jon Huntsman, who couldn't get more

:29:12.:29:22.
:29:22.:29:23.

than 1% of the primary vote. It reminds me of the Tories as Labour

:29:23.:29:28.

took over, they listened more and more to themselves, and it took a

:29:28.:29:33.

generation to try and come back and win. This was not a draw this

:29:33.:29:37.

election, President Obama won it, clearly, won it much more clearly

:29:37.:29:41.

than George W Bush did in 2000 and yet Bush ran on a very strong

:29:41.:29:45.

mandate. This was not a draw, it was a win for President Obama, and

:29:45.:29:49.

the Democratic party in the Senate, and the people who lost in the

:29:49.:29:53.

Senate in the Republican Party, were precisely the religious

:29:53.:29:56.

fundamentalists that now control that party. Someone, somewhere has

:29:56.:30:02.

to get control of that party, away from religion.

:30:02.:30:08.

You wouldn't call the campaign that Mitt Romney ran as religious. You

:30:08.:30:14.

wouldn't call the campaign in the House that led to the House victory

:30:15.:30:22.

as not indicating a broad base. What we did see in the way that

:30:22.:30:26.

President Obama ran his campaign was that he was very good at

:30:26.:30:32.

spreading out his strength where Mr Romney was not as good. Mr Romney

:30:32.:30:39.

failed to appeal to black people in sufficient numbers, to women in

:30:39.:30:41.

sufficient numbers? With the first African-American President, of

:30:41.:30:46.

course he didn't. The Hispanics, women? The Hispanic vote, we do

:30:46.:30:51.

have an issue with the Hispanic vote, that ought to be with the

:30:51.:30:55.

Republican Party, at least on the kinds of issues that Mr Surlivan we

:30:55.:31:00.

ought to abandon. And the Hispanic voters are more entreprenurial as a

:31:00.:31:04.

vote, and upwardly mobile vote, it should be with the Republican Party.

:31:04.:31:09.

You are exactly right, we should be reaching out to that much more.

:31:09.:31:13.

failed? We did, but he pulled in other groups. When you get as close

:31:13.:31:17.

an election in the popular vote as we have, you are not talking about

:31:18.:31:21.

the kind of upheaval we have been hearing about all through the day.

:31:21.:31:27.

You are talking about addressing some very specific problems, and

:31:28.:31:32.

being very focused about them. And that's where Mr Romney fell a bit

:31:32.:31:41.

short. Can I give awe -- you how specific

:31:41.:31:46.

religion us was. Abortion was a big issue, and the debate in the

:31:46.:31:50.

Republican Party is whether it might be legal even in cases of --

:31:50.:31:54.

illegal even cases of rape, that is where they are. They want to

:31:54.:31:58.

criminalise abortion in every state regardless of their positions,

:31:58.:32:02.

criminalise it, the only debate is about whether a woman was raped she

:32:02.:32:06.

would have to be brought to term. That is where they are in terms of

:32:06.:32:11.

women's issues. Now that is based upon religion, and an idea about

:32:11.:32:15.

biology and about women's role in the world. When you have majority

:32:15.:32:20.

women electorate you are going to lose. Look, Mr Surlivan, apparently

:32:21.:32:24.

hasn't been paying attention to the Republican Party. Because, first of

:32:24.:32:29.

all, the men who said those words about rape were immediately

:32:29.:32:32.

disavowed, the first one was immediately disavowed, it was a

:32:32.:32:37.

little late to do it with the other one. They were immediately

:32:37.:32:44.

disavowed and abandoned by the party. They both ran? But they were

:32:44.:32:51.

off the wall. What you had on abortion in the Republican Party,

:32:51.:32:59.

the position, broadly, is remove Row versus Wade and then the party

:32:59.:33:03.

has many, many positions on where abortion should be. It has one

:33:03.:33:06.

position, which is a federal amendment. I have to bring it to an

:33:06.:33:10.

end. We are going to have to bring it to an end. Thank you both very

:33:10.:33:13.

much. Leaving aside what he has to do about simple matters such as

:33:13.:33:16.

Iran and the Middle East. There is a sense in which Obama is like a

:33:16.:33:22.

man who has fought off a hijacker and wrestled back control of the

:33:22.:33:25.

steering wheel of a juggernaut, only to realise the road he's on

:33:25.:33:29.

leads straight to a brick wall or over a cliff. The thing they talk

:33:29.:33:33.

about here is a fiscal cliff in simple terms in eight weeks time

:33:33.:33:36.

taxes will go through the roof at the same time as there are huge

:33:36.:33:39.

cuts to public spending. It is authoritatively expected tip the

:33:39.:33:44.

country back into recession, if it happens. And furthermore, it is a

:33:44.:33:48.

legal obligation. Our Economics Editor Paul Mason is our resident

:33:48.:33:51.

Cassandra. America spends like a superpower,

:33:51.:33:56.

taxes like a nation that believes in small Government. As a result,

:33:56.:34:02.

its debt stands at $16 trillion. That is 104% of GDP, higher than

:34:02.:34:07.

any developed country except Japan, and it has been growing at over $1

:34:07.:34:11.

trillion a year. Last summer Congress, controlled by the

:34:11.:34:17.

Republican, said, enough. Spurred on by the Tea Party movement, they

:34:17.:34:21.

refused to lift the debt ceiling, threatening the Government with

:34:21.:34:24.

shutdown. The President was forced to agree to mandatory, across the

:34:24.:34:29.

board spending cuts, from January 2nd next year. This, together with

:34:29.:34:33.

the expiry of massive tax cuts from the Bush era, creates the fiscal

:34:33.:34:38.

cliff. Here is why they call it a cliff. The combined impact of the

:34:38.:34:42.

tax rises and spending cuts, will be to slash the deficit immediately,

:34:42.:34:47.

by half a trillion dollars over the next year, and over three years it

:34:47.:34:51.

would fall to 1% of GDP, but the economic impact would be huge, it

:34:51.:34:54.

would push America immediately into recession. The fiscal cliff matters,

:34:54.:34:59.

not just to Americans, but to Europe too. Economists think, if

:34:59.:35:04.

the full programme is applied, it could push Europe into a deep

:35:04.:35:09.

recession and half growth in China. The IMF have said, don't do it, so

:35:09.:35:13.

there is huge pressure on President Obama not to step off the fiscal

:35:13.:35:16.

cliff. But, from Republicans in Congress,

:35:16.:35:22.

the pressure is the other way. won't solve the problem of our

:35:22.:35:26.

fiscal imbalance overnight. And certainly won't do it in a lame

:35:26.:35:31.

duck session of Congress. And it won't be solved simply by raising

:35:32.:35:35.

taxes and taking a plunge off the fiscal cliff. What we can do is

:35:35.:35:41.

avert the cliff in a manner that service as a downpayment on and a

:35:41.:35:44.

catalyst for major solution, enacted in 2013, to begin to solve

:35:44.:35:49.

the problem. Making the compromise will not be

:35:49.:35:51.

easy, the Republicans retained control of the house of

:35:51.:35:54.

representatives last night, and they are sore. There will be a

:35:54.:36:02.

fight it keep the spending cuts. And it will not be pretty.

:36:02.:36:07.

Neera Tandem was head of tkpwhesic policy for Obama, Daniel Mitchell

:36:07.:36:12.

from the Cato Institute has worked for the Republican Party in the

:36:12.:36:17.

Senate. Is this a major problem or opportunity? For the President, the

:36:17.:36:21.

situations we face? I think this was an historic election. Sure, but

:36:21.:36:26.

the fiscal crisis, this is weeks away? Yes, absolutely. But I think,

:36:27.:36:34.

what I was saying is, I think people did not expect the

:36:34.:36:37.

Democratic majorities we have. The Senate Democrats expanded a

:36:38.:36:42.

majority. The real issue on the table is whether the Republican

:36:42.:36:46.

Party will shift on revenue, that is always the question. Today you

:36:46.:36:50.

have seen the speaker talk a little bit more about revenue than in the

:36:50.:36:54.

past. The issue here is, we know what to do around the fiscal cliff,

:36:54.:37:04.
:37:04.:37:06.

it is whether there is political resolve to do it. With the election

:37:06.:37:10.

results and Republican Party Congress coming to the table to

:37:10.:37:14.

discuss it. This is a fight we have had for a while, because voters

:37:14.:37:20.

don't want to see higher taxes, it is like giving the keys to a liquor

:37:20.:37:25.

store to alcoholics to put more revenue on the table in Washington.

:37:25.:37:29.

Looking at Spain, Italy, raising taxes, Republicans don't want to go

:37:29.:37:35.

down that path, but there is the specter of automatic tax increases

:37:35.:37:38.

if something isn't done. Either Obama has to give, or Republicans

:37:38.:37:43.

have to give, or they both have to give. When politicians meet in a

:37:43.:37:47.

room in Washington, tax-payers usually lose, I'm not optimistic,

:37:47.:37:50.

you will be happy, probably, I won't. That is a misreading of the

:37:50.:37:55.

election. If you look at the exit poll, the data is 64% of Americans

:37:56.:37:59.

want higher taxes for wealthy Americans, that is the issue the

:37:59.:38:02.

President campaigned on. To say that this issue that the President

:38:02.:38:06.

campaigned on, and of in every debate, and was part of his

:38:06.:38:11.

campaign stump, it is not going to be a surprise. Can it be fudged

:38:11.:38:14.

now? I don't believe it can be. First of all you can't spend the

:38:15.:38:17.

fiscal crisis with spending alone. I think Greece and all these

:38:17.:38:23.

countries are a great example. will put the country back into

:38:24.:38:27.

recession? Here is the issue, if we have austerity measure that is

:38:27.:38:30.

simply put their weight on the backs of middle-class Americans,

:38:30.:38:36.

then we are going to face the kinds of crisis that Europe is face, less

:38:36.:38:39.

growth, not more growth. I will make awe deal, if you say Obama

:38:39.:38:43.

gets the higher tax rates because he campaigned on it, does that mean

:38:43.:38:47.

we get to undo Obamacare and fake stimulus because he didn't campaign

:38:47.:38:51.

on those. The American people are split on these issues in reality,

:38:51.:38:54.

the question is, what economy anywhere in the history of the

:38:54.:38:59.

world has made itself better by increasing tax rates on

:38:59.:39:01.

entrepeneurs and small business owners. The problem with Washington

:39:01.:39:04.

is the town is filled with bloated bureaucracies that are doing things

:39:05.:39:08.

that central Government shouldn't do. In 1993 President Clinton

:39:09.:39:14.

raised tax, the rate went from 35% to 36%, we had a large increase on

:39:14.:39:18.

taxes in wealthy Americans in eight years of growth. That is just the

:39:18.:39:21.

facts of American his treatment we can say these things aren't true,

:39:21.:39:27.

but they are. But in 1995, Clinton's own OMB said there would

:39:27.:39:32.

be deficits of $200 billion plus. There weren't. As far as I can see

:39:32.:39:35.

with the election of the Republicans in 1994 changed the

:39:35.:39:40.

spending trend line. That is the whole key to fiscal policy, the

:39:40.:39:44.

private sector should grow faster than the public, Obama wants it to

:39:44.:39:48.

be like Greece and the other way round. They re-elected him

:39:48.:39:54.

yesterday. And the House. You have all these Credit Rating Agencies

:39:54.:39:58.

deciding if the American Governments are trustworthy or not?

:39:58.:40:01.

They are a lagging indicator not a leading indicator. If they are

:40:01.:40:04.

about to pass judgment, you are in trouble as a Government? We are in

:40:05.:40:08.

trouble as a Government. There is no question about it. Bush was a

:40:08.:40:12.

big spender, Obama is a big spender, I suspect whoever is President in

:40:12.:40:16.

2016 will be a big spender. Politicians buy their way to re-

:40:16.:40:18.

election by spending other people's money. That is why we are all in

:40:18.:40:25.

trouble. England, the US, France, big trouble. You know, you actual

:40:25.:40:29.

loo think there is a lot of doom- saying about the American economy.

:40:29.:40:33.

But it is growing better than the rest of the world at this rate.

:40:33.:40:36.

trillion of debt? The difference between the United States and other

:40:36.:40:40.

countries, is people are investing here. People are deciding to move

:40:40.:40:43.

their money from other countries, into the United States, and

:40:43.:40:45.

investors are putting their money in the United States because they

:40:45.:40:55.
:40:55.:40:56.

know America is a good bet. The the reason why they think America is a

:40:56.:40:59.

good bet, because our trend lines in growth are increasing. One of

:40:59.:41:03.

the reasons the President won yesterday is more people were

:41:03.:41:06.

optimistic about the future yesterday than they were a year ago,

:41:06.:41:11.

two years ago three years ago. You are right, we do have a fiscal

:41:11.:41:14.

challenge. We can address it. It is a long-term fiscal challenge, it

:41:14.:41:17.

can be addressed. The difference between the two parties, and this

:41:17.:41:22.

was an issue in the campaign, was are you going to put the burden of

:41:22.:41:27.

the debt, only on the middle-class, or are you going to ask the wealthy

:41:27.:41:31.

pay their fair share, as President Clinton did in 1993, and we got

:41:31.:41:36.

years of growth from it. We will reconvene on December 31st perhaps.

:41:36.:41:42.

Thank you very much. Despite what you, all of us heard from so many

:41:42.:41:46.

self-proclaimed expert, the outcome of the campaign came nowhere near

:41:46.:41:50.

in legal wranglings and hanging Chads and all that. They would be

:41:50.:41:55.

the last to admit all of that, but predicting an election is an

:41:56.:41:58.

imprecise science, however precise the figures might appear. There is

:41:58.:42:03.

a lot of egg on lots of faces, more fool us for taking them seriously.

:42:03.:42:08.

There were some who got it right, staggeringly right in some case.

:42:08.:42:13.

No-one got it as wrong as the Chicago Tribune got it in the 19478

:42:13.:42:15.

presidential election, the man holding the front page is Harry

:42:16.:42:21.

Truman, who had really won! Is polling today any more

:42:21.:42:27.

sophisticated than a coin toss. Listen to the Republican pollster,

:42:27.:42:33.

Dick Morris on Folk News last week. We will win by a landslide, it will

:42:33.:42:37.

be the biggest surprise in recent American political his treatment it

:42:37.:42:41.

will rekindle the whole question as to why the media played this race

:42:41.:42:48.

as a nail-biter. Mr Morris's line today was, it was all the fault of

:42:48.:42:52.

Hurricane Sandy. There was a handful of analysts who got it

:42:52.:43:00.

pretty right. The new force here is an Englishman, Thomas Baize, a

:43:00.:43:05.

Presbyterian minister, who departed life in 1763. He will be turning in

:43:05.:43:12.

the grave to hear it, he was the inspiration in the Brad Pitt film,

:43:12.:43:19.

Moneyball, there is a new formula to create a winning side. We are

:43:19.:43:23.

card counter, at the black Jack table, we will turn the odds on the

:43:23.:43:30.

casino. You don't put a team together on a computer. Drew Linzer

:43:30.:43:34.

is part of the team of statisticians, and appears to have

:43:34.:43:39.

called the election exactly right. What's the difference between you

:43:39.:43:46.

and an old fashioned pundit, Drew Linzer? Well, when I look at the

:43:46.:43:50.

election, what I'm looking at are measures of public opinion, that

:43:50.:43:53.

come out of public opinion surveys. These are reliable sources of

:43:54.:43:57.

information, and by putting those together in a systematic way, we

:43:57.:44:00.

can get a pretty good idea of how people will actually vote on

:44:01.:44:09.

election day. So these are good times to be a statistician, as op

:44:09.:44:14.

poised to someone who intu -- as och posed to someone who

:44:14.:44:18.

intuitively looks at the polls and believes they know what might

:44:18.:44:23.

happen? There is no need for intuition if you have a systematic

:44:23.:44:26.

understanding of how the polls are produced and what the information

:44:26.:44:31.

they contain is. We know polls contain various sources of error,

:44:31.:44:34.

there are ways of analysing the polls in aggregate to remove the

:44:34.:44:39.

source of error. What we found in 2008 and this year, is public

:44:39.:44:43.

opinion surveys, on average, close to the election, provide a very

:44:43.:44:47.

accurate snapshot of how people will actually vote. And so, by

:44:47.:44:51.

putting all these poll together, people like me and others, who take

:44:51.:44:55.

this sort of statistical viewpoint, are able to make very accurate

:44:55.:45:01.

predictions of how the vote will turn out yesterday.

:45:01.:45:10.

Others who followed another methodology, made an inaccurate

:45:10.:45:14.

prediction or two? They did, I don't know what else to add about

:45:14.:45:19.

that. I think had a our goal, as people who watch the election,

:45:19.:45:22.

should be to provide accurate information. And there are sources

:45:23.:45:26.

of information, like public opinion poll, that have historically proven

:45:26.:45:30.

to be accurate. That continued to be accurate. And I personally don't

:45:30.:45:35.

know why we shouldn't use those and take advantage of those sources of

:45:35.:45:39.

information, and why someone thinks that their gut, or their intuition

:45:39.:45:45.

will do better than that, I really couldn't say.

:45:45.:45:48.

You are a naturally very modest man, clearly. Would you like to come

:45:48.:45:56.

over and predict some British elections for us? I would be happy

:45:56.:46:01.

to, if you have the public opinion data for me, I'm sure I can put

:46:01.:46:06.

together a model that would try to ebgts tract the information in

:46:06.:46:10.

those -- extract the information in those polls. Drew Linzer thank you

:46:10.:46:14.

very much for joining us. Thank you. That's it from Washington. By the

:46:14.:46:18.

time there's another presidential election here, we shall have had

:46:18.:46:21.

the chance to decide whether we want another David Cameron

:46:21.:46:31.
:46:31.:46:58.

Good evening, a frost-free night to come tonight. Thanks to the breeze

:46:58.:47:02.

and cloud and showers. Wet weather in the south of England, clearing,

:47:02.:47:06.

a few showers elsewhere, not as wet a day in Scotland. Brighter in

:47:06.:47:10.

Northern Ireland. Brightening up through the day. North West England,

:47:10.:47:17.

there will be plenty of cloud, one or two sunnier breaks not out of

:47:17.:47:20.

the question. In southern England occasional sunshine through the

:47:20.:47:24.

second half of the day. Temperatures 10-12. The key thing,

:47:24.:47:26.

compared with what we saw this afternoon, temperatures the same,

:47:26.:47:31.

the winds will fall lighter after a breezy start. It will feel a touch

:47:31.:47:35.

milder. For Wales we will see sunny break develop, not necessarily just

:47:35.:47:39.

to the east, across western areas sunshine too. In Northern Ireland

:47:39.:47:44.

best of the sunny breaks best across Antrim Down and Armagh.

:47:44.:47:54.
:47:54.:48:07.

Western Scotland a dry and brighter There you go, we have a weather

:48:07.:48:10.

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