12/05/2014 Newsnight


12/05/2014

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hand man tells me he stopped a great deal of leg's interference on

:00:21.:00:29.

schools, the Liberal Democrats dismiss him as a fantasist.

:00:30.:00:36.

From very serious to even worse now seperatists in eastern Ukraine say

:00:37.:00:39.

they have declared independence and want to join Russia, the central

:00:40.:00:44.

Government looks on impotently as police begin to swap sides. The

:00:45.:00:48.

police changed sides? Yes, they changed from Ukrainian side to

:00:49.:00:59.

terrorist side Insurgented organise phoney referendums on independence

:01:00.:01:05.

and succession. Everyone is voting for independence, they don't know

:01:06.:01:08.

anyone voting against. I haven't seen anyone voting no.

:01:09.:01:14.

Mark Urban is in Moscow to second guess the Russians' next move.

:01:15.:01:19.

Is partly genetics that determines why some societies become wealthy,

:01:20.:01:22.

learned and sophisticated while others don't. The writer Sir

:01:23.:01:29.

Nicholas Wade thinks so and been lambasted for it.

:01:30.:01:33.

Alan scale little heads to Latin American beach where Scottish

:01:34.:01:37.

imperial dreams ended in bankruptcy. And it is said forced them to accept

:01:38.:01:43.

a union with England. It was the amazing fertility of this place that

:01:44.:01:46.

brought the Scots here in the first place. You have to spend five

:01:47.:01:51.

minutes here to know what it means, with a continual attempt to clear

:01:52.:02:03.

the land, a fight against nature. Mention the name of the Education

:02:04.:02:05.

Secretary, Michael Gove, in some parts of the land and the air is

:02:06.:02:10.

suddenly thick with the smell of wafted garlic cloves and people

:02:11.:02:14.

making the sign of the cross. Even Liberal Democrat partners is saying

:02:15.:02:19.

he's as could legional as a starved rat. That has prompted a fierce

:02:20.:02:24.

response from one of Michael Gove's previous advisers. The flash point

:02:25.:02:32.

is free schools, Michael Gove's pet education project. What operates so

:02:33.:02:37.

harmlessly in some parts of the world, what makes it so charged

:02:38.:02:44.

here. Emily? I spoke to someone this afternoon and they said the peace

:02:45.:02:47.

has broken out, it seemed to be that way over the Lib Dem-Conservative

:02:48.:02:53.

spat on free schools. We heard calming words were had between

:02:54.:02:56.

Michael Gove and David Laws, but they hadn't reckoned on one man, a

:02:57.:03:02.

man the Liberal Democrats call "poisonous", they accuse him of a

:03:03.:03:06.

personal and sustained war against Nick Clegg. He is Michael Gove's

:03:07.:03:09.

former special adviser in Government, Dominic Cummings told me

:03:10.:03:14.

this evening of the extent he said he had blocked, prevented Nick

:03:15.:03:16.

Clegg's plans in Government. And I will talk you through what he said.

:03:17.:03:20.

He said he certainly did stop a great deal of Nick Clegg's

:03:21.:03:24.

interference in school policy. He would routinely call demanding ?100

:03:25.:03:29.

million for an unknown gimmick, if you can follow it on the green. We

:03:30.:03:35.

told him to "get stuffed", more importantly we stopped him

:03:36.:03:38.

corrupting the free school process, nothing would have happened in

:03:39.:03:42.

Government if we hadn't locked Clegg out of school reform. What are the

:03:43.:03:46.

Liberal Democrats themselves saying? I guess it is important to say that

:03:47.:03:49.

a lot of people in both parties think this is a man who has gone

:03:50.:03:53.

rogue, he's now left his job and there is question marks over why

:03:54.:03:56.

he's saying this kind of stuff. But I asked t Lib Dems for their

:03:57.:04:01.

response to Cummings this evening. And this is what a Lib Dem spokesman

:04:02.:04:06.

told me. "We're not even going to dignify these absurd statements with

:04:07.:04:13.

a response. Dominic Cummings is an ex-Government visor, these comical

:04:14.:04:18.

musings show why it should stay that way." Once you dismiss him as a

:04:19.:04:25.

fantasist and an ex, you wonder why we are covering this? The reason is

:04:26.:04:28.

he was very close to a senior Secretary of State on flagship

:04:29.:04:32.

policy, which the Government has introduced for so long. So the

:04:33.:04:36.

questions are, how much did he block, if anything, and exactly who

:04:37.:04:39.

knew about what he was doing? Thank you. With all the name calling in

:04:40.:04:46.

Westminster, one might be forgiven for For getting there is a crunch

:04:47.:04:52.

looming on the horizon over the number of school places available.

:04:53.:04:57.

We have been looking at whether free schools are part of the problem or

:04:58.:05:05.

part of the solution. Everybody listening? Everybody listening. Very

:05:06.:05:12.

good. It is not immediately obvious why a free school, like this one,

:05:13.:05:17.

would be so contentious. But this category of schools trumpeted by the

:05:18.:05:21.

Tories has caused a rift within the coalition. Lib Dems say they are now

:05:22.:05:24.

worried about the amount pledged to be spent on them, and so is Labour.

:05:25.:05:29.

For every parent wondering why their child is taught in a class size of

:05:30.:05:36.

over 30, for every parent angry that they cannot get their kid into a

:05:37.:05:40.

good local school, we now have the answer. The coalition, both parts,

:05:41.:05:45.

has raided the schools' budget to pay for pet political projects in

:05:46.:05:52.

expensive, half-empty and underperforming free

:05:53.:05:54.

expensive, half-empty and schools are just academies that have

:05:55.:05:58.

been set up from scratch since 2011, there is nothing very special about

:05:59.:06:01.

them, like all academies they are responsible to the Department of

:06:02.:06:03.

Education, not their local authority, and they have got the

:06:04.:06:06.

right to vary, for example teachers' pay and conditions, and curriculum

:06:07.:06:14.

more than other schools. Since 2011 the Government has opened 174 free

:06:15.:06:19.

schools. Some, like this one, have been rated as "outstanding", others

:06:20.:06:24.

have failed. So they are like the schools system at large, in any case

:06:25.:06:29.

the last Labour Government set up academies from scratch too, they

:06:30.:06:31.

were just free schools under a different brand. Why all the

:06:32.:06:35.

political heat? Free schools are supposed to do two things, the first

:06:36.:06:40.

is just to introduce more choice into the system, that is to say if

:06:41.:06:45.

you create extra places at local schools parents can move their

:06:46.:06:47.

children from one to another, creating competition between the

:06:48.:06:50.

schools. The second thing they are supposed to do is allow new school

:06:51.:06:55.

providers, like Arc Schools, that ones this run, into the system. So

:06:56.:06:58.

local authorities may not just open and run new schools any more,

:06:59.:07:02.

instead, the programme means that a private group must make a bid to

:07:03.:07:05.

open a school and, if a minister approves it, the Department for

:07:06.:07:14.

Education will fund it. There are problems, first because of a

:07:15.:07:16.

population boom in England. The number of people need places is

:07:17.:07:21.

soaring. This is a particular problem in London. This map shows in

:07:22.:07:27.

dark red neighbourhoods where the nearest five primary schools are

:07:28.:07:30.

full beyond capacity. The pink shows places where they have barely enough

:07:31.:07:35.

room. The blue is where there is a little bit of spare capacity. If the

:07:36.:07:38.

Government were to build no new schools on new capacity the story

:07:39.:07:45.

would be horrific by 2017/18. While the Government may have wanted more

:07:46.:07:49.

choice in schooling it is now racing to build enough places at all. Free

:07:50.:07:54.

schools can make to meet that need. Some of them in densely built-up

:07:55.:07:59.

areas have been put in unusual buildings. This one here is an old

:08:00.:08:04.

Public Library. The problem is the process of setting up free schools

:08:05.:08:10.

can be longer and more involved to the old fashioned way we set up

:08:11.:08:14.

local authority schools. Free schools looks a an interesting way

:08:15.:08:18.

of diversifying the schools in 24 country. That is an interesting and

:08:19.:08:24.

desirable thing in itself. It is difficult to meet basic need in free

:08:25.:08:28.

school innovations, in order to do that you have to have the proposals

:08:29.:08:32.

coming through in exactly the places where there is pupil demand.

:08:33.:08:36.

Children live in localities, thank's where you need schools. So the free

:08:37.:08:41.

schools scheme isn't really suited to fighting the places squeeze in

:08:42.:08:45.

England. It wasn't really designed to be. The DfE is spending a large

:08:46.:08:53.

chunk of its building budget to help, ?5 billion over the

:08:54.:08:56.

parliament. It is this coalition Government that has increased

:08:57.:09:00.

spending on primary school spaces and local authority need and at the

:09:01.:09:03.

same time has provided excellent new provision through the free school

:09:04.:09:15.

programme. But if those measures should fail to hold off the schools'

:09:16.:09:19.

crunch, Labour and the Lib Dems want you to blame free schools and their

:09:20.:09:25.

promoter, Michael Gove. Now to more general matters, and some new polls

:09:26.:09:28.

out? Yeah, you can make what you will of polls and people often say

:09:29.:09:32.

you only recognise the ones you want to. There is a couple that won't

:09:33.:09:35.

make good reading for Ed Miliband tonight. Both show the Conservatives

:09:36.:09:38.

taking a lead for the first time in two years. The first one is an ICM

:09:39.:09:43.

poll for the Guardian with the Tories jumping over Labour with 33%

:09:44.:09:47.

of the vote, Labour on 31%. The astonishing thing is Labour have

:09:48.:09:52.

dropped six points since April. They are the lowest they have been since

:09:53.:09:57.

June 2010, shortly after Gordon Brown left. The other poll is Lord

:09:58.:10:04.

Ashcroft, he puts Conservatives on 34% and Labour on 32%, they weren't

:10:05.:10:12.

there since the omnishambles. The variance in the system is with a

:10:13.:10:18.

two-point lead by the Tories Labour could still actually claim a

:10:19.:10:21.

majority, such is the distribution of seats which means Labour picks up

:10:22.:10:25.

more in small urban areas, et cetera, the Tories have a lot of

:10:26.:10:29.

wasted votes. The weird system is they could still have a majority

:10:30.:10:33.

even as they sit two points below the Tories. I still think it won't

:10:34.:10:38.

make great ratting for Ed Miliband on a night he has tried to introduce

:10:39.:10:41.

a new policy. Sooner or later something like this

:10:42.:10:46.

was bound to happen and today one of the leaders of the trouble in

:10:47.:10:51.

eastern Ukraine appealed for Russia to consider integrating the area

:10:52.:10:54.

into Russia itself. He believes the called referendum staged by his

:10:55.:10:57.

supporters in the area yesterday, proves the strength of feeling for

:10:58.:11:04.

the idea. The British Foreign Secretary shrugged and said the

:11:05.:11:08.

votes in the European song contest had more credibility. We will hear

:11:09.:11:13.

what the Ukrainian Foreign Minister, well we were, but not now. First we

:11:14.:11:21.

from report from the east of Ukraine. Here an army base is on

:11:22.:11:33.

fire. Soldiers have vanished. No-one can tell us how it started, but in

:11:34.:11:38.

the combustible atmosphere of the east, this is almost certainly no

:11:39.:11:44.

accident. The police are nowhere to be seen. This is the backdrop

:11:45.:11:50.

against which the polls will open in a few hours time. The fire men are

:11:51.:11:55.

doing their best, but there is clearly no saving these barracks

:11:56.:11:58.

now, the worry is of course for the weapons that may or may not have

:11:59.:12:04.

been inside this building. Suddenly we get news that 30 masked men armed

:12:05.:12:09.

with clubs are heading in our direction, it is time to go. Turn

:12:10.:12:14.

the lights off. A few hours later the sense of menace was gone. There

:12:15.:12:18.

was chaos, but also optimisim amongst the voters of this province.

:12:19.:12:23.

There were all sorts of irregularities, no proper register,

:12:24.:12:27.

no voting booths, not to mention the fact that the whole exercise was run

:12:28.:12:32.

by the "yes" camp. But that wasn't really the point. The point was to

:12:33.:12:36.

turn pro-Russian sentiment into political reality by sheer force of

:12:37.:12:48.

numbers. Everyone is very clear here, everyone is voting for

:12:49.:12:51.

independence, they don't know anyone who is voting against. I haven't

:12:52.:13:03.

seen anyone voting "neit". A few metres away another burntout

:13:04.:13:08.

building, this was the police station, there was a shootout on

:13:09.:13:15.

Friday. TRANSLATION: There were bullets flying everywhere, shooters

:13:16.:13:19.

on the roof tops. The Ukrainian military came in, apparently, in an

:13:20.:13:24.

attempt to take control of the building. The locals believed the

:13:25.:13:27.

army opened fire on the police, several people were shot dead,

:13:28.:13:40.

including at least one policeman. She says something terrible is

:13:41.:13:46.

happening that will destroy them. If the police switched sides it

:13:47.:13:51.

explains how the seperatists took control of the city centre. The

:13:52.:13:59.

result of the referendum was never in doubt, today they declared

:14:00.:14:03.

themselves a sovereign state. Despite the febrile atmosphere

:14:04.:14:08.

amongst the thoughs who came out to vote, there were almost no policemen

:14:09.:14:12.

on the streets. We did find two, hiding from view, in an unmarked

:14:13.:14:16.

Lada, they were nervous and didn't want to speak on camera. It is not

:14:17.:14:22.

often that you see uniformed policemen on the streets these days,

:14:23.:14:25.

these two I have just been speaking to have told me they are doing their

:14:26.:14:30.

best to keep law and order here in the city, but they admit that

:14:31.:14:33.

frankly they and some of their colleagues are scared. They admitted

:14:34.:14:36.

freely that they have gone over to the side of what they call the

:14:37.:14:43.

people, for the Donetsk People's Republic. They say they are against

:14:44.:14:45.

the army. After the fighting on Friday, the army and the National

:14:46.:14:49.

Guard retreated to the outskirts of the city. We found them at this

:14:50.:14:53.

checkpoint in control at least of the main highway into town. Kiev

:14:54.:14:59.

can't count on the loyalty of the local security forces, so these

:15:00.:15:02.

soldiers have been brought in from outside. This captain is from

:15:03.:15:09.

central Ukraine. Trained by NATO forces in the US and the UK, he

:15:10.:15:14.

represents everything that the seperatists fear and loathe. He told

:15:15.:15:17.

me he hoped this confrontation wouldn't end in a battle with the

:15:18.:15:23.

local police. Can we ask you very simply the police, whose side are

:15:24.:15:28.

they on now? Now on, in this town what I have information from this

:15:29.:15:36.

town they are on the terrorist side. They changed sides, the police

:15:37.:15:39.

changed sides? Yes, they changed from the Ukrainian side to the

:15:40.:15:46.

terrorist side. In the nearby town of Mangush, polling took place at an

:15:47.:15:52.

inprompt you polling station in the children's playground. No armed

:15:53.:15:56.

seperatist here. These local policemen said they were still loyal

:15:57.:16:01.

to Kiev, they continued to do their job and they would not cede control

:16:02.:16:06.

to men with balaclavas and baseball bats. Back in Mariuple, the army

:16:07.:16:12.

barracks were still mouldering, hours after it had been --

:16:13.:16:19.

smelledering, hours after it was set alight ammunition boxes lay strewn

:16:20.:16:24.

amongst the debris. The key thing here is the loyalty of the police,

:16:25.:16:29.

in town after town, where they have switched sides, the seperatists have

:16:30.:16:36.

mained control. At the airport pro-Government forces are gathering

:16:37.:16:40.

in advance of an anticipated push to retake the city. Some are Ukrainian

:16:41.:16:46.

army and national Guardsmen, others are forming private militias,

:16:47.:16:51.

volunteers, taking up arms against the seperatists. He tells me they

:16:52.:17:03.

need a new army, a more professional army, they are all prepared to fight

:17:04.:17:11.

for Ukraine, to die for Ukraine. The men are nervous, the arrival of an

:17:12.:17:15.

unknown vehicle prompts a Alcocking of weapons, the occupants are

:17:16.:17:21.

questioned at gun point. Tonight Ukraine's Interior Minister said it

:17:22.:17:23.

would step up its military operations. In western capitals they

:17:24.:17:28.

have declared the referendum to be illegal. But the reality on the

:17:29.:17:32.

ground is that Kiev's authority in the east is evaporating and it may

:17:33.:17:39.

have to fight to win it back. Our diplomatic editor Mark Urban is in

:17:40.:17:44.

Moscow. How is the Kremlin reacting to today's events? The amazing thing

:17:45.:17:56.

is they haven't reacted directly to the bombshell, the Donetsk People's

:17:57.:18:02.

Republic saying it wants to join Russia. There was a statement from

:18:03.:18:07.

the Kremlin before it calling for a civilised outcome, for dialogue

:18:08.:18:10.

between Kiev and the seperatists, that seemed not to anticipate

:18:11.:18:14.

today's events. The President, Mr Putin, is down south in Sochi, his

:18:15.:18:20.

supporters await his lead but he appears to be a man who most

:18:21.:18:23.

definitely is not under the pressure of the 24-news cycle, and so people

:18:24.:18:29.

don't really know how he intends to respond. What's the gen. Ral mood

:18:30.:18:34.

there as you wander around Moscow. What is the attitude towards

:18:35.:18:47.

foreigners? Westerners? It is a very bellicose atmosphere. You had the

:18:48.:18:50.

Victory Day celebrations at the end of last week, and pretty

:18:51.:18:53.

extraordinary stuff going out over the media. Last night on the main TV

:18:54.:18:57.

channel, a piece lasting several minutes showing President Putin in

:18:58.:19:01.

his command bunker supervising exercises, intercontinental

:19:02.:19:06.

ballistic missiles being launched, that was done late last week, but we

:19:07.:19:09.

saw the pictures last night. All sorts of other rockets and things

:19:10.:19:12.

being fired. Quite extraordinary, you would think this is a country

:19:13.:19:18.

about to go to war. Tonight watching the 24-hour news channel, seeing the

:19:19.:19:22.

reports from eastern Ukraine, suggestions that foreign

:19:23.:19:25.

mercenaries, westerners were the people who were actually killing the

:19:26.:19:30.

pro-Russian seperatists in Donetsk, the only evidence for that I saw in

:19:31.:19:35.

one piece was some European cigarette packets that had been left

:19:36.:19:39.

behind in one of the bases. Another report claiming the CIA was deeply

:19:40.:19:45.

involved now. A very particular message being given of a conspiracy,

:19:46.:19:53.

if you like, a foreign-backed conspiracy. Has it affected

:19:54.:20:01.

attitudes to foreign people, most people have been friendly, we got

:20:02.:20:05.

into a heated discussion with a man in a restaurant, he said we are

:20:06.:20:10.

American and we're different, he said what's the difference, you are

:20:11.:20:18.

NATO. The boss of Pfizer the American pharmaceutical hoping to

:20:19.:20:24.

gobble up AstraZeneca appears before the Commons committee and has to do

:20:25.:20:28.

the same thing the next day before another committee. This double

:20:29.:20:32.

whammy of scrutiny before the deal has been agreed reflects the level

:20:33.:20:36.

of unease about what is planned. The American firm today claimed despite

:20:37.:20:42.

all precedence to the contrary, its guarantees about protecting British

:20:43.:20:45.

science jobs will have the force of law. It is a big day tomorrow. It is

:20:46.:20:51.

a real blockbuster and not just because it is British science and

:20:52.:20:55.

knowledge at risk, this would be the biggest-ever commercial deal, but

:20:56.:20:58.

indirectly AstraZeneca supports about 30,000 jobs in this country,

:20:59.:21:03.

and alone makes up 2% of exports. That is why tomorrow and Wednesday

:21:04.:21:06.

will really matter. The central point is whether or not Pfizer's

:21:07.:21:10.

promises about keeping jobs and research in the UK are worth the

:21:11.:21:15.

paper they are written on. Now they claim these promises are absolutely

:21:16.:21:19.

legally binding. They suggest that because it is true that the takeover

:21:20.:21:23.

panel, you might not have heard of them. But they are the regulator of

:21:24.:21:28.

these kinds of things do have legal recourse to try to hold companies to

:21:29.:21:32.

promises they make during the course of a takeover bid. The difficulty is

:21:33.:21:39.

if you fancy a bit of slight reading and rule three and rule 1. 1 of the

:21:40.:21:44.

takeover code says they can only hold them to those promises if,

:21:45.:21:49.

"things do not have a material change of circumstances". If there

:21:50.:21:53.

is a material range of circumstances, perhaps the market

:21:54.:21:55.

changes, perhaps maybe the price of drugs changes or something like

:21:56.:21:59.

that, then the promises they make aren't worth anything at all. This

:22:00.:22:07.

is becoming a pretty cleat calm charged take -- politically charged

:22:08.:22:12.

takeover. Nigel Lawson is here. We have to remember this is a deal that

:22:13.:22:16.

hasn't happened yet. Is it right that it is subjected to this sort of

:22:17.:22:21.

political scrutiny? I think it is right it is subjected to scrutiny,

:22:22.:22:26.

not just political, but also the scrutiny of the stock market, the

:22:27.:22:30.

scrutiny of investors. I think that is absolutely right. It is extremely

:22:31.:22:36.

complex issue, like in any complex issue, while there are always

:22:37.:22:39.

arguments on both sides, and there are, I think you

:22:40.:22:40.

arguments on both sides, and there does the balance

:22:41.:22:45.

arguments on both sides, and there And the balance of advantage in

:22:46.:22:49.

arguments on both sides, and there opinion is undoubtedly trying to get

:22:50.:22:50.

the undertakings you can, they don't opinion is undoubtedly trying to get

:22:51.:22:54.

want to incur the hostility of the British Government, that is no in

:22:55.:22:57.

their commercial interests, they don't want to have the National

:22:58.:23:00.

Health Service, which is a very, very big buyer of drugs hostile to

:23:01.:23:06.

them. They have every interest in being co-operative. I think the

:23:07.:23:11.

balance of advantage is that we remain welcome to perfectly

:23:12.:23:16.

respectable, they are not a shower of crooks, investment in this

:23:17.:23:19.

country, just as we invest very substantially in the United States.

:23:20.:23:23.

Do you think those are the signals that are being sent by the

:23:24.:23:26.

Government. Michael Howard is saying he wants better safeguards than have

:23:27.:23:30.

already been offered by Pfizer? He can say what he likes. Not Michael

:23:31.:23:37.

Howard, I mean David Cameron! Let's see what happens, at the end of the

:23:38.:23:40.

day you get the best sort of under akings you can, they want to give

:23:41.:23:44.

undertakings and they know it will not be helpful if they Welsh on the

:23:45.:23:50.

undertakings. Laura is right there are circumstances these would not be

:23:51.:23:54.

legally binding, but never the less it is in their interests to behave

:23:55.:23:59.

well, if they can make money doing so, which I believe they can. And I

:24:00.:24:07.

think as I say, we have benefitted tremenduously in this country. The

:24:08.:24:11.

French put barriers up against overseas investment in a big way, it

:24:12.:24:18.

has not done them any good. We have benefitted from being somewhere

:24:19.:24:21.

people want to come and they want to come because it is Britain not

:24:22.:24:27.

because we are the European Union. Equally our firms have benefitted

:24:28.:24:33.

from the assets we have acquired in the United States. There is a long

:24:34.:24:36.

history, this is not new. If you think in another area, Vauxhall

:24:37.:24:43.

Motors, I think that General Motors bought vox haul in the 19 --

:24:44.:24:50.

Vauxhall in the 1930s and it has been very successful. There is a

:24:51.:24:56.

long history of shutting down deals that are not found conGeorgeal, and

:24:57.:25:00.

science is very important? Science is centered in the universities. But

:25:01.:25:06.

no company in the drugs business can be successful if it doesn't do

:25:07.:25:10.

research. There is a question of how much research it does, but that is

:25:11.:25:15.

absolutely vital. They all do it, Pfizer does too. Do you propose

:25:16.:25:22.

confidence in Vince Cable as the right man to make this decision? I

:25:23.:25:26.

don't believe that any single individual should make this

:25:27.:25:29.

decision. I believe that at the end of the day you get whatever

:25:30.:25:34.

undertakings you can and then you leave it to the shareholders to

:25:35.:25:40.

decide how it should go. I believe that I, you know, I'm a semi-retired

:25:41.:25:49.

politician and I have no regrets about being a politician, but I

:25:50.:25:52.

think that once you start having these decisions, made by

:25:53.:26:00.

politicians, for short-term political purposes, that is a big

:26:01.:26:07.

mistake. Why does western civilisation

:26:08.:26:11.

dominate the modern world, and why are some ethnic groups seemingly

:26:12.:26:15.

more successful than others. Could the answer lie with genetic

:26:16.:26:19.

differences, these are the questions posed, not in a century-old polemic

:26:20.:26:24.

on eugenics, but the respected science writer for the New York

:26:25.:26:31.

Times, Nicholas Wade, in a new book he explores why our increasing

:26:32.:26:35.

understanding of our genetic make-up should lead us to believe our genes

:26:36.:26:41.

have played a far bigger role in how our history unfolded than previously

:26:42.:26:50.

thought. What is the core of your contention then? The core of my

:26:51.:26:55.

contention is that we can tell from recent studies of the human genome

:26:56.:27:03.

over the last ten years that human evolution didn't stop in the distant

:27:04.:27:07.

past as people believe, to the contrary it has been vigorous and

:27:08.:27:11.

extensive and has extended right up through the historical period. That

:27:12.:27:15.

is the factual part of my book and then I have clearly a speculative

:27:16.:27:21.

part in which I try to ask if evolution has been acted throughout

:27:22.:27:27.

history, what kind of traits have been selected by natural selection,

:27:28.:27:33.

what has it been doing. The suggest the most important thing that has

:27:34.:27:36.

changed is not the nature of the people, because human nature is

:27:37.:27:40.

pretty much universal, we are all very much the change. What has

:27:41.:27:43.

changed is the nature of human societies. And natural selection

:27:44.:27:48.

does that by making slight tweaks in human social behaviour and a slight

:27:49.:27:51.

tweak in social behaviour can make for a very different society. For

:27:52.:27:56.

example the radius of trust is rather narrow, in a tribal society,

:27:57.:28:01.

you only trust your family or kinnage, in a modern state it is

:28:02.:28:07.

larger. We have a genetic mechanism where it could be controlled by

:28:08.:28:17.

oxitocin. We won't know that until the genes are found. We don't know

:28:18.:28:23.

if there is an empirical basis for this theory at present? There is

:28:24.:28:29.

certainly no proof of it, but there is a reasonable amount of evidence I

:28:30.:28:34.

have tried to assemble in my book, which I think is a reasonable way of

:28:35.:28:38.

looking at things. I was quite surprised to hear you say the

:28:39.:28:43.

instructions for this programme that my book has been lambasted, that is

:28:44.:28:48.

not at all true. I saw an article in the London Times this afternoon and

:28:49.:28:53.

was completely biased and you have managed to find the one review that

:28:54.:28:59.

has called my book "racist", the Times's own review has been very

:29:00.:29:02.

open minded to what I'm trying to say. You could see how people might

:29:03.:29:14.

turn it? This is a very dangerous area, and you have to approach it

:29:15.:29:19.

very carefully. That is what I have done. I think it is worth trying to

:29:20.:29:24.

explore because for the very reasons you say. This is territory where

:29:25.:29:29.

academics fear to tread, you cannot write an article or book exploring

:29:30.:29:34.

the difference between races without being accused of racism. In my mind

:29:35.:29:40.

if one takes racism seriously one should define it narrowly and not

:29:41.:29:46.

toss the word about as a casual insult, the essence of racism is to

:29:47.:29:51.

assume one race is inherently superior to another, this is a

:29:52.:29:56.

proposition I reject on almost every other page of my book.

:29:57.:30:00.

Let's take a specific example, the question of the Industrial

:30:01.:30:04.

Revolution as it occurred in England in the period we know about. Are you

:30:05.:30:07.

saying there may be evolutionary reasons for that happening where it

:30:08.:30:17.

happened when it happened? Yes we know from a study by Gregory Clarke,

:30:18.:30:21.

who has measured the changes in English behaviour from the period

:30:22.:30:27.

1200 to 1800, he finds that during this period the level of violence in

:30:28.:30:34.

society decreases, literacy goes up, work hours go up and spending goes

:30:35.:30:38.

up. So you start the period with a sort of violent peasant population

:30:39.:30:42.

and you end it with a disciplined work force, which is immensely more

:30:43.:30:48.

productive than the population was 600 years previously. The essence of

:30:49.:30:52.

the Industrial Revolution is an increase in productivity. So Clarke

:30:53.:30:57.

has provided a very interesting explanation based on changes in

:30:58.:31:01.

English social behaviour of why this happened. All these behaviours could

:31:02.:31:08.

plausibly have a genetic basis. He has provided a genetic mechanism

:31:09.:31:13.

where it might happen. He found the well-off had more surviving children

:31:14.:31:17.

throughout this period than the poor. So the genes and values that

:31:18.:31:25.

made them rich then sort of perculated down through -- percan

:31:26.:31:35.

you -- percolated down in society. This is a very interesting way of

:31:36.:31:40.

looking at a behavioural change in a particular population. The

:31:41.:31:45.

referendum to decide whether Scotland should reject the union

:31:46.:31:51.

with England, which it once so enthusiastically embraced is now

:31:52.:31:55.

four months away. Interest has quickened in what seems to be an

:31:56.:31:59.

increased support to cutting the tie which has lasted 300 years. It is

:32:00.:32:04.

widely acknowledge the Scots became much keener on joining England after

:32:05.:32:09.

the catastrophic failure of their own attempt to build an empire. It

:32:10.:32:13.

bankrupted Scotland and led to the attitude if you can't beat them join

:32:14.:32:29.

them. 300 years ago a disaster that evolved here brought an end to the

:32:30.:32:35.

Scots and an end to the independent kingdom of Scotland. The

:32:36.:32:41.

anglo-Scottish union that is being challenged has roots here in Panama

:32:42.:32:49.

. When a nation rethinks its future, as Scotland does, it also

:32:50.:32:53.

re-examines its past. Scotland is re-thinking the lessons of what is

:32:54.:32:58.

still known as the Darian disaster. In the archive in Edinburgh, there

:32:59.:33:06.

is the story of an attempt by Scottish merchants to find a trading

:33:07.:33:11.

colony, they would call it Caledonia and New Edinburgh. We have the

:33:12.:33:18.

charter in constitution. It is a document set up how they wanted it

:33:19.:33:24.

to run, from the judiciary and how disputes are settled. They are found

:33:25.:33:28.

Agnew colony and whole new country? This is all the things about

:33:29.:33:32.

beginning a country, there is a lot to think about that is what they are

:33:33.:33:36.

trying to do here. It was fatastically ambitious? Very

:33:37.:33:43.

ambitious indeed. It would be funded by public subscription, kept sealed

:33:44.:33:48.

in this elaborately locked strong box. Across Scotland almost anyone

:33:49.:33:53.

with savings queued to invest. It seemed everyone wanted to be part of

:33:54.:33:57.

what they called the most noble undertaking. I think it was an early

:33:58.:34:02.

example of financial mania, whipped up by those organising the capital

:34:03.:34:08.

raising, particularly William Patterson, who was very skillful to

:34:09.:34:12.

persuade investors to part with their money. He combined a clever

:34:13.:34:19.

mixture of poetry and sound financial sense that was very

:34:20.:34:31.

persuasive. The The subscription book remains, it would be millions

:34:32.:34:36.

worth of donations if it was today. It was interesting how seized

:34:37.:34:40.

Scotland was of the mania, it is a list of page after page after page

:34:41.:34:44.

of those who sunk their life savings into the adventure. Palm quite reach

:34:45.:34:55.

up to ?3,000 to people of modest means, Margaret Adamson ?1. It is

:34:56.:35:02.

like looking at the wealth of a small and poor country being thrown

:35:03.:35:06.

away. They filled their ships with goods they hoped to trade with the

:35:07.:35:11.

maritime nations of the world. They took with them 85 campaign wigs.

:35:12.:35:17.

They took wigs to central America? Yes, they didn't know with the

:35:18.:35:21.

climate and what it would be like, they didn't understand. There would

:35:22.:35:34.

be two major expeditions to Panama, carrying 3,000 settlers between

:35:35.:35:38.

them. The first embarked in a mood of national euphoria. The fleet set

:35:39.:35:46.

sail from here athlete in #16 98. The whole City of Edinburgh poured

:35:47.:35:55.

down on the port of Leith to see the colt Colinists department. This was

:35:56.:36:01.

a great at venture, those on board the ships thought themselves lucky

:36:02.:36:05.

to be alive. They hadn't the slightest notion they were sailing

:36:06.:36:08.

into personal and national catastrophe.

:36:09.:36:22.

There is it is, Scottish Harbour, when they came around the headland

:36:23.:36:29.

after four gruelling months at sea. They found themselves in calm seas

:36:30.:36:35.

and fertile land not occupied by any European power. They thought the

:36:36.:36:41.

harbour had room for a thousand ships. They should have looked at

:36:42.:36:45.

the sky, they should have known it rains here most of the year, and

:36:46.:36:46.

nothing ever dries out. It was the amazing fertility of this

:36:47.:37:05.

place that brought the Scots here in the first place, you have to spend

:37:06.:37:08.

five minutes here to know what that means. One of the settlers wrote

:37:09.:37:13.

that the book breaking work of clearing the place took place, but

:37:14.:37:17.

within a matter of weeks the jungle had grown back and it was though

:37:18.:37:21.

nothing had been done to it, it was a continual attempt to fight against

:37:22.:37:26.

nature and clear the land. And against disease, Malaria, yellow

:37:27.:37:31.

fever, somewhere in this tangle is a Scottish cemetery with hundreds of

:37:32.:37:35.

graves, no-one has ever found it. Nine months after the first fleet

:37:36.:37:42.

set sale, two-thirds of the colonists were dead. The survivors

:37:43.:37:49.

struggled on, they built a fort and named it for their patron saint, we

:37:50.:37:53.

searched the forest and coastline for what is left of it. This is what

:37:54.:37:56.

we have been working for, this is the start of the defensive trench,

:37:57.:38:05.

the moat that they built around fort Andrew, they dug it through solid

:38:06.:38:11.

coral rock for hundreds of yards, right to the far end and other

:38:12.:38:14.

shore. It must have been a huge task. We went to the place the Scots

:38:15.:38:23.

named New Edinburgh, it is still called that on some maps. They lived

:38:24.:38:28.

here in houses like these. But nothing survives of their capital

:38:29.:38:34.

city. 20 families live here now, descentants of the Indians that the

:38:35.:38:40.

Scots tried to befriend. No Europeans ever succeeded in settling

:38:41.:38:45.

this place, not even the Spanish. Only its oldest indigenous people

:38:46.:38:52.

survive. 300 years ago the Scots made alliances with them, signed

:38:53.:38:55.

treaties, traded with them, learned from them. Across the bay we found

:38:56.:39:03.

the island that is still called Caledonia, a legacy of the Scots'

:39:04.:39:08.

presence. The people today live off the sea and forest. It is part of an

:39:09.:39:15.

autonomous province of Panama, reserved for them alone. And it is

:39:16.:39:20.

dedicated to preserving its precolonial way of life, to keeping

:39:21.:39:26.

the modern world at bay. The story of the Scots colony survives in

:39:27.:39:35.

their oral history. TRANSLATION: The story of how white people, the Scots

:39:36.:39:39.

tried to settle here has been passed down through the generations. Our

:39:40.:39:43.

forefathers told us they became looking for gold there were battles

:39:44.:39:47.

with the Spanish and many ships sank. They were driven inland

:39:48.:39:51.

because of fear. When the Scots arrived the Spanish had already been

:39:52.:39:56.

here for nearly 200 years. Their garrison town was the gateway

:39:57.:40:00.

through which the gold and silver that made imperial Spain the

:40:01.:40:05.

greatest power of the age was shipped back to Europe. The Spanish

:40:06.:40:10.

blockaded and then besieged the Scots colony and then forced a

:40:11.:40:13.

humiliating surrender. They burned what was left of Caledonia to the

:40:14.:40:17.

ground. All but one of Scotland's great ships, with the goods they

:40:18.:40:21.

hoped to trade were lost. But it was the role of the English that was to

:40:22.:40:24.

cause lasting bitterness in Scotland. In London King William

:40:25.:40:32.

olded the English colonies of the North Americas not to trade with

:40:33.:40:38.

Caledonia and deny all assistance to the Scottish colonies. He was in a

:40:39.:40:44.

slightly different position, English trading interests were very much

:40:45.:40:48.

against the Scottish Company against the East India Company, the

:40:49.:40:54.

realities of power was he was going to side with where the power and

:40:55.:40:57.

money was, the London trading interests. Orders were sent to the

:40:58.:41:01.

English plantations saying they weren't allowed to supply the Scots

:41:02.:41:05.

with any extra provisions, they were trying to starve them out.

:41:06.:41:11.

Scotland's imperial ambitions were defeated by climate and disease,

:41:12.:41:17.

attacked by the Spanish, and sabotaged by the English. Within a

:41:18.:41:22.

decade they accepted union with England. They agreed to pay a sum of

:41:23.:41:28.

money to compensate. It was known as the equivalent, or the price of

:41:29.:41:32.

Scotland. Bought and sold for English gold Robert Burns would say

:41:33.:41:38.

later, "such a parcel of rogues in a nation". With us here in the studio

:41:39.:41:43.

is a former economic adviser to the Scottish Government, and now a

:41:44.:41:48.

visiting professor at the London School of Economics. We're joined

:41:49.:41:52.

from Aberdeen by a professor at the University of troth collide and

:41:53.:42:00.

author of Union and Empire. First of all, do you think this, how big a

:42:01.:42:05.

deal was it in the making of the union? It was quite a big deal in

:42:06.:42:16.

two ways, one was the issue, one was the equivalent, bailing out the

:42:17.:42:19.

Scots in this terrible condition. The more basic point was it was a

:42:20.:42:24.

demonstration that in the long run without the support of the English

:42:25.:42:29.

Navy. Without access to a free trade zone with England, and without

:42:30.:42:34.

access to the expanding English empire Scotland's prospects in a

:42:35.:42:37.

global environment were not very good. And with access to all these

:42:38.:42:42.

things they proved to be very effective. Do you think it was that

:42:43.:42:51.

important? I think the Darian scheme was a fiasco in its execution, but

:42:52.:42:56.

it was not the cause of union or indeed was it a financial

:42:57.:43:01.

catastrophe for Scotland. It was doing quite well, regardless of the

:43:02.:43:11.

Darian, which I think is being misrepresented here thus far. As a

:43:12.:43:16.

relatively small country Scotland would be unable to carve out for

:43:17.:43:21.

itself the international desknee it sought and therefore some kind of

:43:22.:43:25.

alliance with a bigger partner just across the border was probably a

:43:26.:43:32.

good idea. Scots weren't looking for other partnership, the Scots were

:43:33.:43:36.

also at the same time as Darian investing heavily in Swedish

:43:37.:43:40.

textiles and ballistics and German manufacturing as well. They were in

:43:41.:43:43.

a good trade relationship with France and also a buoyant trading

:43:44.:43:48.

relationship with the Dutch. We can overstate this desire for the

:43:49.:43:53.

alleged poverty of the Scots. Do you think there is much a read across

:43:54.:44:00.

into where we are now in relations with England and Scotland? Not very

:44:01.:44:04.

much, we need to understand the prosperity of small countries in

:44:05.:44:10.

today's world is based on defining your competitive advantages and

:44:11.:44:13.

being able to sell them in a global environment. And Scotland was able

:44:14.:44:19.

to do that from 1707, other small countries, like lites land or

:44:20.:44:23.

Denmark or -- Switzerland or Denmark or Sweden have prospered only in the

:44:24.:44:28.

20th century as a result of the growth of free trade. Do you see

:44:29.:44:36.

much of a read across? I think the first thing that I need to state is

:44:37.:44:39.

it is important to have collaboration with international

:44:40.:44:44.

partners. That was clearly lacking at Darian, it could be one or

:44:45.:44:48.

several partners, but the lesson is the need for international

:44:49.:44:54.

collaboration. As you might say it was a lesson of the financial

:44:55.:45:00.

crisis? You could exactly say that. You could say the same thing about

:45:01.:45:05.

any financial crisis even in 20008, the need to have international

:45:06.:45:09.

collaboration is vital. And you will be well aware of how often that

:45:10.:45:15.

argument is made by those who wish to see the union continue? You could

:45:16.:45:20.

equally say that international collaboration was important for

:45:21.:45:27.

European banks, that is the sand navian countries included. There was

:45:28.:45:33.

one blindingly obvious collaboration for Scotland at the beginning of the

:45:34.:45:39.

18th century, and a large and increasingly successful country,

:45:40.:45:42.

which happened to be located immediately across the hills, that

:45:43.:45:46.

was England. Of course the Scots played an

:45:47.:45:52.

important part in building the British Empire? We need to emphasise

:45:53.:45:57.

over and over again that 150 years that followed union were for

:45:58.:46:02.

Scotland. An amazing period of economic development that Scotland

:46:03.:46:06.

moved from being a small country on the periphery of Europe to being in

:46:07.:46:12.

the second half of the 19th century, one of the richest parts in the

:46:13.:46:17.

world, you can see a legacy of that any time you go to Edinburgh or

:46:18.:46:19.

Glasgow. What do you make of the fact that

:46:20.:46:24.

pro-unionist politicians are using the Darian scheme as an argument

:46:25.:46:32.

against separation? I think it is almost like a lack of confidence

:46:33.:46:36.

that you can't do certain things, likewise the belief that the union

:46:37.:46:41.

would have been a gesture by English, an altruistic gesture,

:46:42.:46:45.

there is far more reasons that England wanted union than bailing

:46:46.:46:50.

out Scotland. Disruption to international trade and war of the

:46:51.:46:53.

Spanish succession, financial difficulties experienced by England

:46:54.:47:00.

at the time. There is a bigger picture in this rather than easy

:47:01.:47:07.

answers, that is Darian leads to England leads to money in their

:47:08.:47:15.

pocket. It wasn't an act of altruism on England's part. But the Scots did

:47:16.:47:21.

well out of the Britishm pyre. The coraly of that is when the British

:47:22.:47:25.

empair they lost a large part of these benefits, so the union was a

:47:26.:47:32.

great deal for Scotland in the 18th or 19th, it was not clear about the

:47:33.:47:39.

20th century. That leaves the 21st century an open question.

:47:40.:47:44.

??FORCEDWHI That is it from tonight. We leave you with images from a

:47:45.:47:51.

Facebook page where Iranian women post pictures of themselves out in

:47:52.:47:55.

public without a hijab, something that is punishable if it is done in

:47:56.:47:58.

that country.

:47:59.:48:24.

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