Browse content similar to 29/08/2014. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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It was exactly a year ago that parliament voted not to intervene | :00:00. | :00:11. | |
militarily in Syria. Today David Cameron warned we will be fighting | :00:12. | :00:16. | |
against Islamic State for years, but how? And he upped the terror threat | :00:17. | :00:20. | |
to "severe". Tonight a special programme, what were the | :00:21. | :00:24. | |
consequences of that vote? Have Britain and the west lost their | :00:25. | :00:28. | |
appetite for foreign wars? And what has happened since? The spread of | :00:29. | :00:32. | |
the Syrian conflict into Iraq, the rise ofcy. Of IS and three million | :00:33. | :00:37. | |
Syrian refugees. It is clear to me that the British parliament, | :00:38. | :00:40. | |
reflecting the views of the British people, does not want to see British | :00:41. | :00:53. | |
military action, I get that. President Assad himself has now | :00:54. | :00:57. | |
confirmed on Russian television that he does have chemical weapons and is | :00:58. | :01:03. | |
prepared to give them up. The The war where you youngest are caught in | :01:04. | :01:06. | |
crossfire, they are targeted, even tortured. Militants, backed by a | :01:07. | :01:16. | |
anti-Government tribal fighters say they have taken control of Fallujah. | :01:17. | :01:20. | |
We are not putting boots on the ground, this is | :01:21. | :01:22. | |
We are not putting boots on the help them in their fight. After four | :01:23. | :01:27. | |
days of this, the Jihadis are now effectively in control of Mosul, | :01:28. | :01:33. | |
Iraq's second city. Many are from the minority Yazidi secretary, | :01:34. | :01:36. | |
forced from their homes a week ago and are now trapped on mountains | :01:37. | :01:45. | |
surrounded by the Jihadists. Syria's intensifying refugee crisis has | :01:46. | :01:48. | |
surpassed today a record three million refugees. The killer, who | :01:49. | :01:53. | |
speaks with a British accent, sends a direct message to President Obama | :01:54. | :01:59. | |
before killing James Foley. It poses an immediate threat to the people of | :02:00. | :02:01. | |
Iraq and the people throughout the region. We don't have a strategy | :02:02. | :02:09. | |
yet. Good evening, David Cameron wouldn't commit to any further | :02:10. | :02:11. | |
military involvement in the Middle East today, but he did describe the | :02:12. | :02:15. | |
Islamic state as a greater and deeper threat to our security than | :02:16. | :02:20. | |
we have ever known before. We are in the middle of a | :02:21. | :02:27. | |
generational struggle against a poisonous and extremist ideology | :02:28. | :02:30. | |
that I believe we will be fighting for years and probably decades. We | :02:31. | :02:34. | |
will always take whatever action necessary to keep the British people | :02:35. | :02:37. | |
safe here at home. But a year ago the Prime Minister took a very | :02:38. | :02:43. | |
different approach after chemical takes by President Assad on his own | :02:44. | :02:47. | |
people. Parliament was recalled to approve military action in Syria | :02:48. | :02:51. | |
only to fail to get the backing of a majority of MPs. How did the | :02:52. | :02:54. | |
Government misjudge that vote? What has the impact been on our foreign | :02:55. | :02:59. | |
policy? Policy still made in the shadow of the Iraq War. Here is our | :03:00. | :03:04. | |
special correspondent, her report contains disturbing images. | :03:05. | :03:16. | |
How do we decide? Who we d'oh we -- do we stand up for? Tonight David | :03:17. | :03:29. | |
Cameron's plan for punishing President Assad using chemical | :03:30. | :03:33. | |
weapons failed. It is parliament, reflecting the views of the British | :03:34. | :03:36. | |
people does not want to see military act, I get that and the Government | :03:37. | :03:40. | |
will act accordingly. If we didn't strike then, what now? | :03:41. | :03:46. | |
With dangers more complex, more intense? David Cameron became the | :03:47. | :03:49. | |
first Prime Minister in many generations to lose a vote on | :03:50. | :03:54. | |
foreign policy. Ministers were astonished, the consensus was | :03:55. | :03:58. | |
smashed. But their position had been based on not one but a series of | :03:59. | :04:02. | |
miscalculations. The biggest, perhaps, a misunderstanding of the | :04:03. | :04:10. | |
recent past. MPs' minds were clogged with | :04:11. | :04:14. | |
memories of their vote for shock and awe, on evidence that was wrong. We | :04:15. | :04:21. | |
cannot ignore the lessons of the calamitous Iraq War. If we do not | :04:22. | :04:26. | |
take action, and it probably means military action, then the | :04:27. | :04:30. | |
credibility of the international community will be greatly damaged. | :04:31. | :04:34. | |
We all know, I have the scars about this, how easy it is to get into | :04:35. | :04:38. | |
military action and how difficult it is to get out of it. The legacy of | :04:39. | :04:47. | |
going to war in Iraq on a false premise cast a large shadow. And | :04:48. | :04:52. | |
some of us in parliament are in no mood for smoke and mirrors when it | :04:53. | :04:57. | |
comes to these things. There wasn't doubt about Assad's brutality, by | :04:58. | :05:03. | |
chance just as MPs voted these images of a chemical attack were | :05:04. | :05:06. | |
shown for the first time. But the question was how to punish the | :05:07. | :05:13. | |
crossing of the west's red line. The Government and Washington wanted to | :05:14. | :05:17. | |
side with the rebels. Some of these rebels included ISIS, some included | :05:18. | :05:21. | |
groups linked to Al-Qaeda. The idea of intervening on their behalf was | :05:22. | :05:25. | |
sheer and utter madness. Even on the morning of the vote, one minister at | :05:26. | :05:29. | |
the cabinet table suggested there would be no problem with the debate, | :05:30. | :05:34. | |
yet party managers and others were increasingly aware. They hadn't had | :05:35. | :05:38. | |
enough time to get the votes over the line. First time parliament, or | :05:39. | :05:46. | |
the party, assembled as a group was just before the debate started. The | :05:47. | :05:50. | |
whips were hampered from their usual operation, being able to move around | :05:51. | :05:53. | |
the lobbies, ringing colleagues, speaking to individuals personally. | :05:54. | :05:57. | |
And I think so again it goes back to the shortage of time to actually | :05:58. | :06:02. | |
marshall the party as a cohesive group. David Cameron had banked on | :06:03. | :06:08. | |
Ed Miliband's support though and given private concession, but to his | :06:09. | :06:12. | |
shock Labour decided instead on their own, more cautious motion. | :06:13. | :06:17. | |
This was a very significant political question Labour wanted to | :06:18. | :06:23. | |
try to demonstrate its unease. But it also wanted to show that if push | :06:24. | :06:31. | |
came to shove it was not going to baulk at making a difficult | :06:32. | :06:35. | |
decision. On paper Labour's position was not so different to the | :06:36. | :06:40. | |
Government's, but in practice, it killed off David Cameron's plan. By | :06:41. | :06:44. | |
the time he entered the Commons' chamber, before the result, a member | :06:45. | :06:49. | |
of his team had in their pocket a speech prepared to acknowledge | :06:50. | :06:53. | |
defeat. Nothing had been written in case of a win. And at at the most | :06:54. | :06:59. | |
senior levels of Government it was Ed Miliband's manoeuvres that sunk | :07:00. | :07:06. | |
the vote and they saw as treachery. The ayes to the right, 272, the nos | :07:07. | :07:14. | |
to the left 2le 5. Ed Miliband 's move did not force David Cameron to | :07:15. | :07:18. | |
be this explicit. We have to listen to parliament, parliament spoke, and | :07:19. | :07:22. | |
parliament, I think, made a very clear view, which it doesn't want | :07:23. | :07:26. | |
British involvement in military action. We will proceed on that | :07:27. | :07:29. | |
basis. Though he says the threat from the Middle East now is deeper, | :07:30. | :07:35. | |
stronger, it is harder to act. I think it probably did limit | :07:36. | :07:39. | |
Government power, but I'm not sure that's necessarily a bad thing, | :07:40. | :07:42. | |
we're living in a parliamentary democracy. Parliament has a right to | :07:43. | :07:48. | |
be heard. Parliament has raised the bar when it comes to intervention, | :07:49. | :07:52. | |
that is a good thing, given our past errors over the last decade. The | :07:53. | :07:55. | |
fact that Britain backed off and then America followed them just | :07:56. | :08:01. | |
illustrated to these militia groups that hang on the west is hesitating | :08:02. | :08:05. | |
here. Here is a real opportunity. We have seen them march straight into | :08:06. | :08:09. | |
it. This defeat did more than prevent the UK's action. Both sides | :08:10. | :08:13. | |
agree it gave parliament strength, but reduced the UK's power. A year | :08:14. | :08:20. | |
on with threats, more comMOX, more dang -- complex, more dangerous, any | :08:21. | :08:23. | |
leader must work harder for permission to intervene. Or take a | :08:24. | :08:29. | |
bigger and frankly unlikely gamble, act now and ask later. The ironic | :08:30. | :08:41. | |
inheritance of the vote, the sense. Reticence. When a year on threats to | :08:42. | :08:47. | |
Middle East safety grow. Joining me is Liam Fox, former | :08:48. | :08:51. | |
Defence Secretary, Lord Ashdown, once leader of the Liberal | :08:52. | :08:55. | |
Democrats, and Lord West, a Home Office Minister in the last Labour | :08:56. | :08:58. | |
Government and before that the First Sea Lord. At the time of that last | :08:59. | :09:03. | |
vote Lord Ashdown, you said you were ashamed of parliament. Do you still | :09:04. | :09:07. | |
think it was bad decision? Yes. Undoubtedly. For the very first time | :09:08. | :09:13. | |
in my memory Britain refused to stand up for international law. It | :09:14. | :09:18. | |
is not about intervening in Iraq, to provide weapons for the rebels in | :09:19. | :09:22. | |
Iraq, in my view that wouldn't have been a wise thing. Because you | :09:23. | :09:25. | |
wouldn't know into whose hands those weapons would have gone. And indeed | :09:26. | :09:28. | |
events have subsequently showed that. When Assad crossed a red line, | :09:29. | :09:35. | |
broke into international national law in existence since 1925, that | :09:36. | :09:40. | |
had restrained Hitler and Stalin, and the British parliament decided | :09:41. | :09:44. | |
to do nothing to stand up for international law, I think that was | :09:45. | :09:48. | |
a shameful moment. I think what happened subsequently, the Americans | :09:49. | :09:52. | |
sincerity to go ahead and take action, together with France but | :09:53. | :09:55. | |
without Britain, forced Assad to come to the table to negotiate | :09:56. | :09:59. | |
chemical weapons. They have now been removed. But elsewhere in the Middle | :10:00. | :10:03. | |
East, as we have seen very clearly, the failure to act has encouraged | :10:04. | :10:08. | |
others to believe that whatever the nature of the transgression we will | :10:09. | :10:11. | |
not act. That's landed us in the position we are in now. Yes, bad | :10:12. | :10:16. | |
move, an unwise move and for Britain a shameful one. There you are Lord | :10:17. | :10:21. | |
West, you argued against intervention, it was shameful and | :10:22. | :10:24. | |
has allowed the rise of IS? I don't agree. I'm delighted that almost 12 | :10:25. | :10:30. | |
months ago, minus two day, we didn't start bombing Syria with no clear | :10:31. | :10:34. | |
aim of what the end game was, no clear aim of where we were going, we | :10:35. | :10:40. | |
could actually in terms of what "what ifs" have a whole Syria | :10:41. | :10:45. | |
controlled by ISIS if we did that. We don't know what would have | :10:46. | :10:48. | |
happened. I think it was right not to jump into bombing them without a | :10:49. | :10:52. | |
clear view of what our aim was. Far from being a shameful -- thing I | :10:53. | :11:01. | |
think it was right. What I didn't want was the thing in parliament it | :11:02. | :11:04. | |
was not a clear cut thing, I'm asking permission to bomb Syria in | :11:05. | :11:08. | |
two days time, should we do it or shouldn't we? No the answer we | :11:09. | :11:13. | |
shouldn't have. It became more fuzzy. Liam Fox you argued very | :11:14. | :11:21. | |
strongly for intervention, do you think as a country we are diminished | :11:22. | :11:26. | |
by the failure of that vote? I think that our influence has been | :11:27. | :11:29. | |
diminished and I think people will wonder what our word is worth I | :11:30. | :11:37. | |
think Paddy Ashdown is 100% correct. It wasn't about intervening in a war | :11:38. | :11:41. | |
in Syria, it was about a breach in international law about the use of | :11:42. | :11:44. | |
chemical weapons. What we were asking is for a limited response to | :11:45. | :11:47. | |
send a very clear signal that the use could not be tolerated again. | :11:48. | :11:52. | |
The fact that we didn't send that signal sent a message to those who | :11:53. | :11:55. | |
have chemical weapons in other place that is they could use them with | :11:56. | :11:59. | |
impunity. That is what Paddy Ashdown was saying was the shameful moment. | :12:00. | :12:04. | |
Was it that George Osborne underestimated the shadow of Iraq? | :12:05. | :12:09. | |
I'm not sure that was entirely true. I think there was an understanding | :12:10. | :12:12. | |
on the part. Of the Government that the Labour Party would give the | :12:13. | :12:15. | |
Government support until very late in the day. I think that was a | :12:16. | :12:19. | |
really dreadful mistake by Ed Miliband. Should there be military | :12:20. | :12:26. | |
intervention now? Would it be impossible without parliament's | :12:27. | :12:29. | |
better mission? There should be intervention to deal with ISIS? What | :12:30. | :12:33. | |
kind of intervention? If we believe it to be the threat we believe it to | :12:34. | :12:37. | |
be we have to deal with it in all its facets. We have to stop the sale | :12:38. | :12:43. | |
of oil on the black market where it derives money and the flow of money | :12:44. | :12:46. | |
from sympathetic groups in the region. We need to interrupt the | :12:47. | :12:50. | |
command and control and supply lines of ISIS, that will require air | :12:51. | :12:54. | |
strikes. British air strikes? Along with the United States if we are | :12:55. | :12:58. | |
asked to do so. It is important that the west provides air cover, close | :12:59. | :13:02. | |
air cover for any ground offensive, counter-attack by the Iraqis or the | :13:03. | :13:10. | |
Kurds. Paddy Ashdown, Liam Fox is saying clearly we should be | :13:11. | :13:12. | |
militarily involved in the air strike, do you think it is possible | :13:13. | :13:17. | |
to do this without parliament's say so, or now is every single military | :13:18. | :13:21. | |
intervention to be run past Westminster? If we're going to | :13:22. | :13:27. | |
engage British military forces and put them in harm's way it is proper | :13:28. | :13:31. | |
that parliament should be consulted. I profoundly disagree with Fox, by | :13:32. | :13:36. | |
the way. I think we have to get away from this idea which says that in | :13:37. | :13:39. | |
response to everything in the Middle East our answer is bombs and | :13:40. | :13:46. | |
rockets. I mean there is a use for limited forms of air support to | :13:47. | :13:49. | |
protect for instance the Kurdish state. There is also a use for such | :13:50. | :13:54. | |
military action as would be consistent with an integrated | :13:55. | :13:58. | |
policy. My view of what is happening in the Middle East now is a very | :13:59. | :14:05. | |
powerful, terrible, but probably reasonably temporary convulsion, but | :14:06. | :14:07. | |
it will change the borders of the Middle East. What we need is an | :14:08. | :14:12. | |
integrated policy in which diplomacy, First Minister with | :14:13. | :14:16. | |
Turkey, Iran, for instance to put pressure on Saudi Arabia to stop | :14:17. | :14:20. | |
supporting the Jihadis is probably as important, if not more important | :14:21. | :14:23. | |
than the military action, but it is the co-ordination of those which | :14:24. | :14:28. | |
will have the effect. Tell me Liam Fox, there will be a NATO meeting, | :14:29. | :14:33. | |
what will we do, will we tell NATO we will not take any action? I think | :14:34. | :14:36. | |
of the United States in particular it says we would like Britain to | :14:37. | :14:42. | |
share the burden of limited air involvement to be able to reduce the | :14:43. | :14:46. | |
military capability of ISIS and give the forces on the ground a chance to | :14:47. | :14:50. | |
work. If we were to go to NATO summit and say we are not going to | :14:51. | :14:54. | |
be supporting the Americans, but we are demanding that the rest of NATO | :14:55. | :14:58. | |
pulls its weight more, that would be a very odd position for Britain to | :14:59. | :15:02. | |
have. Lord West in your view should there be a clearly defined limited | :15:03. | :15:07. | |
strike, after the NATO meeting next week, Liam Fox seems to be | :15:08. | :15:10. | |
suggesting if we are asked we should go ahead with military strikes, is | :15:11. | :15:16. | |
it possible to have a limited, clearly defined strategy in the | :15:17. | :15:19. | |
Middle East? We need a very clear strategy and clear end game of where | :15:20. | :15:22. | |
we want to go, and we have to employ everything at our disposal in terms | :15:23. | :15:26. | |
of diplomatic, in terms of leaning on those within the region, for | :15:27. | :15:31. | |
example, stopping money flows from Qatar and Saudi Arabia, more | :15:32. | :15:34. | |
pressure on our prevent mechanism here in terms of radicalisation and | :15:35. | :15:39. | |
people going. This needs to be much better co-ordinated. There is danger | :15:40. | :15:42. | |
about thinking it is nice and easy, let's fire a few missiles and drop a | :15:43. | :15:46. | |
few bombs on people, that will solve the problem, it doesn't solve the | :15:47. | :15:49. | |
problem. But sometimes, sometimes you do have to use force. I have | :15:50. | :15:53. | |
been involved in using force in this country, but it has to be clearly | :15:54. | :15:57. | |
thought through and you mustn't do it in a sort of haphazard way. I do | :15:58. | :16:02. | |
think that attack on Syria a year ago would have been haphazard, you | :16:03. | :16:08. | |
can't rap on the knuckles here. It does have to be proportionate and I | :16:09. | :16:11. | |
do think it has to be limited, it has to be part of a wider strategy. | :16:12. | :16:15. | |
It has to be financial, political, but if we do require a military | :16:16. | :16:19. | |
element to complete that strategy we should not be unwilling to do it. | :16:20. | :16:24. | |
But in wider terms what is the shape of our possible future interventions | :16:25. | :16:27. | |
in the Middle East and beyond look like, is it changed now? It depends | :16:28. | :16:31. | |
on the situation that arises in the future. I do think we have to have | :16:32. | :16:36. | |
an integrated strategy that takes foreign policy, economic policy | :16:37. | :16:38. | |
fully into account. Is there an appetite for it do you think? The | :16:39. | :16:42. | |
question is do Governments wait until the threat is so great that | :16:43. | :16:45. | |
the public are demanding action, or does the Government act when the | :16:46. | :16:48. | |
Government believes that the threat is such a severity that it warrants | :16:49. | :16:53. | |
action. Does that look to you like intervention and the way it should | :16:54. | :16:57. | |
be conducted? There is all sorts of intervention. When you act to | :16:58. | :17:01. | |
support a country with aid that is intervention, why do we always put | :17:02. | :17:04. | |
intervention only in military terms. We need an integrated strategy. Let | :17:05. | :17:08. | |
me make a slightly different point if I may for you, since we are now | :17:09. | :17:13. | |
facing in the day when we raised the threat level, the Government is | :17:14. | :17:16. | |
concentrating, and I think they are unwise to do so on the threat of | :17:17. | :17:20. | |
Jihadis coming home. By the way when they have raised the threat level | :17:21. | :17:23. | |
they have raised it to what has existed in Northern Ireland for the | :17:24. | :17:26. | |
last two years and what we sustained for five years in the case of the | :17:27. | :17:29. | |
IRA terrorist. Of course this is a threat. But it is a threat that we | :17:30. | :17:32. | |
know how to deal with it and it needs to be put into proportion. I | :17:33. | :17:35. | |
fear it is getting out of proportion. By far the greater | :17:36. | :17:40. | |
threat to Britain is the threat of a widening religious war which | :17:41. | :17:44. | |
threatens to engulf the entire Middle East. Now that's the bigger | :17:45. | :17:48. | |
threat. I wish I had heard the Government talking about tackling | :17:49. | :17:52. | |
that. If you want to link Ukraine with what's happening in the Middle | :17:53. | :17:55. | |
East, this is the system that will do it, because Russia supports | :17:56. | :18:00. | |
Assad. You are talking here about something much, much bigger, much, | :18:01. | :18:05. | |
much more dangerous than returning Jihadi, you are talking about a | :18:06. | :18:08. | |
regional war, in the Middle East, which is religious in nature, which | :18:09. | :18:13. | |
could engulf the Middle East which could change the borders and which | :18:14. | :18:18. | |
could easily f we allow it to get of control engage the great powers as | :18:19. | :18:24. | |
well. That is why complinecy has as much a part to play as does military | :18:25. | :18:27. | |
force. Thank you very much indeed, what are the guiding principles of | :18:28. | :18:32. | |
our policy on intervention in foreign conflict if there are any. | :18:33. | :18:37. | |
It is 15 years since Sierra Leone, Afghanistan and Iraq. Was last | :18:38. | :18:40. | |
year's vote not to intervene in Syria a turning point in the UK and | :18:41. | :18:43. | |
west's approach to the rest of the world. Here is our diplomatic | :18:44. | :18:45. | |
editor. Historians and think-tankers have | :18:46. | :19:02. | |
Long been obsessed with the UK's global status. 50 years ago it was | :19:03. | :19:07. | |
an American politician who said that Britain had lost an empire but not | :19:08. | :19:14. | |
found a role. Actually Britain has had a pretty well defined role over | :19:15. | :19:19. | |
the past half century, which is acting as America's number two or | :19:20. | :19:23. | |
deputy in upholding international security. In the past year though | :19:24. | :19:28. | |
even that's become highly uncertain as the British Government has | :19:29. | :19:34. | |
stepped back from foreign wars. I for one was quite surprised at how | :19:35. | :19:38. | |
much the rest of the world was taking notice of what happened in | :19:39. | :19:42. | |
parliament that day. Because in the gulf and even in eastation and Japan | :19:43. | :19:46. | |
people were saying to me is Britain serious about defence, is there a | :19:47. | :19:49. | |
big rift between Britain and the United States. Are you guys | :19:50. | :19:52. | |
withdrawing from your space in world affairs? And what seemed at the time | :19:53. | :19:57. | |
to be a domestic blip, admittedly a serious blip, but a blip in our | :19:58. | :20:01. | |
political process, was perceived by the rest of the world as a tipping | :20:02. | :20:06. | |
point in Britain's decline as a world power. Just a few weeks back a | :20:07. | :20:11. | |
senior Special Forces officer I met told me that the SAS were not | :20:12. | :20:16. | |
operating in Iraq because of the parliamentary vote. If they got into | :20:17. | :20:21. | |
combat it might be deemed illegal. So what would they be doing once the | :20:22. | :20:26. | |
commitment in Afghanistan had wound down? Well more training missions he | :20:27. | :20:30. | |
suggested and Britain would rely more on the soft power of the | :20:31. | :20:33. | |
International Development Department. The forces, intelligence | :20:34. | :20:40. | |
agencies and Foreign Office have all geared themselves to the | :20:41. | :20:44. | |
Government's view that absent a 9/11 scale event Britain has lost its | :20:45. | :20:48. | |
will to confront enemies overseas. It would be realistic of me to say | :20:49. | :20:53. | |
that I would not accept in the most extreme circumstances, I would not | :20:54. | :20:57. | |
expect to see a manifestation of great appetite for plunging into | :20:58. | :21:04. | |
another prolonged period of ex-president decisionry engagment | :21:05. | :21:10. | |
into -- expeditionary-type engagment any time soon. So the Government has | :21:11. | :21:14. | |
been drawing down in Afghanistan and shunning any commitment to follow on | :21:15. | :21:18. | |
training for the Afghan forces. We have seen a reduction in British | :21:19. | :21:25. | |
commitment, evidenced by the British extreme reluctance to get involved | :21:26. | :21:31. | |
with the commitment to a training, advising assisting mission in | :21:32. | :21:34. | |
Afghanistan, when the mission concludes at the end of this year. | :21:35. | :21:38. | |
What we have seen is countries like Germany and Italy stepping forward | :21:39. | :21:43. | |
to fill the gap in supporting the Americans which Britain | :21:44. | :21:46. | |
traditionally did. One year ago the result of the British vote | :21:47. | :21:51. | |
reverberated across the Atlantic, feeding US Congress which then | :21:52. | :21:55. | |
declined to support US strikes on Syria. Britain had gone from being | :21:56. | :22:00. | |
the dependable partner to a more questionable ally. I think the vote | :22:01. | :22:04. | |
in parliament did have an impact on the President. Because within a | :22:05. | :22:08. | |
couple of days of that vote he decided to go seek a vote in | :22:09. | :22:11. | |
Congress, which he had not planned to do here, and of course that then | :22:12. | :22:16. | |
faded away. I don't think, I think it was little more than a ripple in | :22:17. | :22:20. | |
our long-term relationship with Britain, I think when the President | :22:21. | :22:23. | |
gets his strategy together he will hope, as I will, that the British | :22:24. | :22:27. | |
will be by our side again as they have been so often. So can there be | :22:28. | :22:31. | |
some sort of new concept about when it is right to intervene, well Tony | :22:32. | :22:35. | |
Blair may have gone in with the Americans in Iraq and Afghanistan, | :22:36. | :22:40. | |
but he did also take unilateral military action in Sierra Leone, and | :22:41. | :22:46. | |
he favoured the concept of what's called humanitarian intervention, he | :22:47. | :22:51. | |
believed in the concept of the responsibility to protect, in cases | :22:52. | :22:54. | |
where "ethnic cleansing" Oregan side were imminent. | :22:55. | :23:09. | |
Is the Prime Minister who marched his troughs down the hill now at the | :23:10. | :23:12. | |
mercy of events marching them back up again. The RAF is flying over | :23:13. | :23:18. | |
Iraq once more. It is dropping aid not bombs, for the moment any way. | :23:19. | :23:21. | |
Government insists it has not not bombs, for the moment any way. | :23:22. | :23:26. | |
asked yesterday to join American air strikes. The signs are that this | :23:27. | :23:30. | |
Government doesn't want to take major military action in this crisis | :23:31. | :23:34. | |
no matter whether that is independently or as President | :23:35. | :23:40. | |
Obama's junior partner. Britain still wants a role in the world, it | :23:41. | :23:44. | |
just seems less sure than ever about how to carve it. | :23:45. | :23:52. | |
To discuss this I'm joined by the former Chief of General Staff, the | :23:53. | :24:00. | |
author of the End of History and a Professor from the London School of | :24:01. | :24:03. | |
Economics. Are we living in a world in which Britain is unwilling or | :24:04. | :24:07. | |
unable to exercise our military power? No, I don't think we are. | :24:08. | :24:14. | |
Your conversation earlier this evening on this programme quite | :24:15. | :24:17. | |
rightly has focussed on the debate in parliament a year ago. And I was | :24:18. | :24:21. | |
one of those who spoke against intervention on bombing at that | :24:22. | :24:25. | |
stage, as Lord West, who you talked to earlier also did. Because the | :24:26. | :24:32. | |
issue then was an unclear issue which would potentially have had us | :24:33. | :24:36. | |
bombing in a complex Civil War and the consequences of what we had done | :24:37. | :24:40. | |
were most unclear. We were right to vote against that and it caused a | :24:41. | :24:46. | |
check on American ambitions. It also actually led the Russians to get | :24:47. | :24:50. | |
involved and it then led to the removal of most of the Syrian | :24:51. | :24:54. | |
chemical weapons. Now the situation today is very different. The | :24:55. | :24:57. | |
situation is different today, but I was going to ask you, in what | :24:58. | :25:01. | |
scenario can you see us intervening, if there was another Sierra Leone, | :25:02. | :25:07. | |
if there was another something, when in the Middle East can you see us | :25:08. | :25:11. | |
intervening, you heard what Liam Fox said? I'm not going to start | :25:12. | :25:16. | |
presupposing different scenarios. Let's take the situation we have | :25:17. | :25:19. | |
today. The issue we have in front of us today is very clear. Islamic | :25:20. | :25:25. | |
State is a very clear and present danger. The Prime Minister has | :25:26. | :25:29. | |
spoken about that in absolute terms. What should we be doing now? The | :25:30. | :25:34. | |
Americans are bombing in support of the Peshmerga fighters northern | :25:35. | :25:37. | |
Iraq. There is the issue of the Free Syrian Army in Syria. And the | :25:38. | :25:42. | |
request, if it hasn't come will come quite soon whether whether the UK | :25:43. | :25:46. | |
will not only take surveillance pictures from its aircrafts but drop | :25:47. | :25:50. | |
explosive ordinance as well. I believe this is a very different | :25:51. | :25:54. | |
issue from a year ago and we should be taking action, not just from the | :25:55. | :25:58. | |
air but also playing our part in arming and training the Peshmerga | :25:59. | :26:01. | |
fighters particularly in northern Iraq so that they can stand against | :26:02. | :26:10. | |
this very person national curriculums -- pernicious regime | :26:11. | :26:14. | |
trying to put itself in power, the Islamic State. Do you agree with the | :26:15. | :26:19. | |
analysis? First of all I think there is such a thing as humanitarian | :26:20. | :26:23. | |
intervention but it needs to be focussed on the suffering of the | :26:24. | :26:27. | |
people. It needs, you know, people are going through terrible things in | :26:28. | :26:32. | |
Syria and Iraq. Any kind of intervention has to be focussed on | :26:33. | :26:36. | |
that, we tend to have in our minds that intervention only means war | :26:37. | :26:39. | |
fighting, it only means defeating people. But as a country, you know, | :26:40. | :26:47. | |
do we have, we are a huge military power, are we posturing as a | :26:48. | :26:51. | |
military power, generally? I think both ourselves and the United States | :26:52. | :26:55. | |
have lost a huge degree of moral credibility as a result of both the | :26:56. | :26:58. | |
interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan. It is not just that we | :26:59. | :27:02. | |
have lost our appetite, we haven't come to terms with our culpability | :27:03. | :27:07. | |
for what is happening. And the fact that we do have a much more limited | :27:08. | :27:11. | |
role because we have lost our credibility. Until we can start | :27:12. | :27:15. | |
coming to terms with what we were responsible for, what we did wrong, | :27:16. | :27:21. | |
we can't start to think what's right. You know, once upon time | :27:22. | :27:28. | |
America was the world's policeman and we no longer appear to be the | :27:29. | :27:35. | |
Lieutenants willing to do anything. Do you agree with that analysis that | :27:36. | :27:39. | |
until we understand the problems Iraq gave us we can't move on to a | :27:40. | :27:46. | |
different kind of world peace? I think what Iraq and Afghanistan have | :27:47. | :27:49. | |
demonstrated is that we don't have the knowledge and the ability to | :27:50. | :27:55. | |
create very specific political outcomes like building democracy in | :27:56. | :27:58. | |
either of those countries. But we still have a lot of power and we | :27:59. | :28:01. | |
still have a lot of national interest. I actually think that the | :28:02. | :28:07. | |
situation in both Iraq and Syria has deteriorated to the point that we | :28:08. | :28:11. | |
have to be pretty hard headed right now about protecting some core | :28:12. | :28:16. | |
interests. I think actually you can define a strategy fairly simply, | :28:17. | :28:20. | |
that we, that is to say the United States, Britain and other western | :28:21. | :28:27. | |
powers ought to at this point act as off-shore balancer, our objective | :28:28. | :28:30. | |
should be to prevent any of these bad actors like ISIS or the Assad | :28:31. | :28:38. | |
Government in Syria from dominating the region. That we can do. We | :28:39. | :28:43. | |
cannot turn Syria into a democracy, but we can at least prevent the bad | :28:44. | :28:50. | |
use of power by some extremely nasty groups there. But it is not just | :28:51. | :28:55. | |
about air strikes in that case is it, is it about putting boots on the | :28:56. | :28:59. | |
ground. There is no appetite for that kind of intervention? You know | :29:00. | :29:06. | |
the one thing about ISIS right now that is that they are very much | :29:07. | :29:11. | |
overextended. You usually cannot achieve certain political objectives | :29:12. | :29:14. | |
just with air power, but this is a case where you can really, you can | :29:15. | :29:19. | |
take apart a lot of their infrastructure in Syria and do it | :29:20. | :29:22. | |
without any need for ground forces. So I think this is one case where | :29:23. | :29:28. | |
actually a little bit of limited military power it can actually do a | :29:29. | :29:33. | |
lot of good. If you move your gaze to somewhere else in the world and | :29:34. | :29:37. | |
you look at what is happening now between Russia and Ukraine, and | :29:38. | :29:41. | |
Ukraine tonight calling for full membership of NATO to come under | :29:42. | :29:45. | |
that umbrella, is that a conflict where actually the danger to us is | :29:46. | :29:51. | |
quite severe and actually that Putin's ambition threatens us all? I | :29:52. | :29:59. | |
actually think that Ukraine is a much more serious threat, not just | :30:00. | :30:03. | |
to us but to a lot of countries that are quite important to us, and | :30:04. | :30:07. | |
anything that is going on in this spreading, Sunni-Shia war in the | :30:08. | :30:13. | |
Middle East. And Putin has set a new precedent that's very, very similar | :30:14. | :30:18. | |
to what Hitler did in the 1930s about supporting Russians outside of | :30:19. | :30:22. | |
Russia that will be extremely destablising in Europe. I think NATO | :30:23. | :30:27. | |
needs to get serious as a military alliance, it hasn't been for the | :30:28. | :30:30. | |
last 20 years, but the time has come for it. I think it is very difficult | :30:31. | :30:36. | |
to defeat the Islamic State just through war fighting. I just don't | :30:37. | :30:41. | |
think that is possible nowadays. I think absolutely key you know, it | :30:42. | :30:45. | |
may not be possible to create a democracy, but the absolute key is | :30:46. | :30:51. | |
an inclusive political arrangement, so politic is key to dealing with | :30:52. | :30:55. | |
these things. But when you look more at what is happening in Europe, when | :30:56. | :30:58. | |
you look at what is happening with Putin and you look what that threat | :30:59. | :31:03. | |
looks like, does NATO have to step up the challenge again, do we have | :31:04. | :31:08. | |
to stand nose-to-nose and show our power? I think that is terribly | :31:09. | :31:11. | |
dangerous to do that, but at the same time, again we are talking | :31:12. | :31:15. | |
always in geopolitical terms, where as if you look at what's happening | :31:16. | :31:20. | |
in eastern Ukraine, what was a democracy movement is being turned | :31:21. | :31:24. | |
into an ethnic conflict. There is displacement, there is human rights | :31:25. | :31:30. | |
violations and we need to shift the discourse from geopolitics to | :31:31. | :31:34. | |
humanitarian issues. Thank you all very much, that is all we have time | :31:35. | :31:37. | |
for, from this Newsnight special, good night. | :31:38. | :31:43. |