Browse content similar to 08/09/2014. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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Tonight we're live in Edinburgh, still part of the United Kingdom, | :00:00. | :00:09. | |
but a vote next week to change all that for good. With ten days to go | :00:10. | :00:13. | |
the yes campaign has electrified the race. What can the unionists come up | :00:14. | :00:18. | |
with to win hearts now? These are big changes, that we are proposing, | :00:19. | :00:25. | |
to strengthen the Scottish Parliament but at the same time to | :00:26. | :00:31. | |
stay as part of the United Kingdom. The shivers are running from head to | :00:32. | :00:35. | |
foot through Westminster's political establishment, will they be looking | :00:36. | :00:38. | |
at a collective failure to save 300 years of history. Polling God John | :00:39. | :00:44. | |
Curtice takes us through tonight's numbers and... Obviously the debate | :00:45. | :00:49. | |
about Scottish independence has focussed on the people behind me who | :00:50. | :00:53. | |
live in Scotland. What about the other participants in the | :00:54. | :00:57. | |
300-year-old marriage, what does it mean for the people who live over | :00:58. | :01:02. | |
there. The Scottish shadow secretary may soon have a country in his own | :01:03. | :01:14. | |
portfolio, how does he feel? Good evening from Edinburgh, not | :01:15. | :01:20. | |
since hamlet's agony over to be or not to be has such a deceptively | :01:21. | :01:24. | |
simple question proved so difficult to answer. Half of Scotland want to | :01:25. | :01:27. | |
be an independent country and the other half don't. In race that | :01:28. | :01:30. | |
seemed to be happily chugging along for 18 months and the final paces | :01:31. | :01:36. | |
with numbers that appear to be too close to call have been electrified, | :01:37. | :01:39. | |
leaving a country split down the middle. Today it was the turn of a | :01:40. | :01:42. | |
former British Prime Minister, Gordon Brown, to set the agenda, a | :01:43. | :01:46. | |
man who some would say declared his own independence from Westminster | :01:47. | :01:53. | |
some four years ago. Cutting it fine, after more than 800 | :01:54. | :01:57. | |
days of campaigning, tonight a new promise for the union has arrived. A | :01:58. | :02:03. | |
timetable for Gordon Brown for more powers over tax and welfare and | :02:04. | :02:08. | |
soon. I say that this represents the new union of the 21st century. It is | :02:09. | :02:12. | |
essentially Home Rule for Scotland within the United Kingdom. It is as | :02:13. | :02:16. | |
close to federalism as you can be in a country where 85% of the | :02:17. | :02:21. | |
population is from one-nation. It is extensive social and economic | :02:22. | :02:27. | |
devolution, that ends the accusation that we're a centralist, unitary | :02:28. | :02:33. | |
uniform state. There is ten days late and | :02:34. | :02:33. | |
uniform state. There is ten days comes out with promises? I hate to | :02:34. | :02:39. | |
say this I wrote a few months ago we should set a timetable and be clear | :02:40. | :02:42. | |
about how quickly we could deliver the proposals. Who has been holding | :02:43. | :02:47. | |
it back? I made the proposal to the Conservatives and said this was the | :02:48. | :02:50. | |
right thing to do. I hope they will now come round to the view this is | :02:51. | :02:54. | |
the right thing to do. One source in the no campaign describes what is | :02:55. | :02:57. | |
happening as horrific in streets, where in the past, Labour hardly had | :02:58. | :03:00. | |
to try, voters are starting to say yes. With just ten days to go, there | :03:01. | :03:06. | |
is evidence the SNP is starting to do what they had always hoped to and | :03:07. | :03:11. | |
had to achieve. Peel off traditional solid Labour support from places | :03:12. | :03:15. | |
like this and move those voters towards backing independence. It is | :03:16. | :03:22. | |
not just a frenzy caused by one poll, but a real conviction, there | :03:23. | :03:27. | |
is a chance for independence. We shouldn't be having our imperialist | :03:28. | :03:33. | |
masters telling us what to do. Imperialists masters? Well we were | :03:34. | :03:38. | |
all part of the empire and Scotland contributed at one | :03:39. | :03:40. | |
all part of the empire and Scotland seen the light and getting away from | :03:41. | :03:48. | |
it. Mitch Darling Dearly McAllister -- Alastair darling is too keen to | :03:49. | :03:53. | |
hang on. You are having a pop. You have walked past the yes campaign | :03:54. | :03:57. | |
and said "scary" why? A lot of people are jumping on the yes | :03:58. | :04:02. | |
bandwagon without considering the final consequences. The argument at | :04:03. | :04:08. | |
the heart of the campaign is not that independence is a panacea, it | :04:09. | :04:16. | |
puts us in charge of our own resources not just what Westminster | :04:17. | :04:19. | |
allows us, we take decisions about our own priorities. | :04:20. | :04:24. | |
If the pound slips to an all time low, what happens when you win? | :04:25. | :04:29. | |
Let's be calm, during political campaigns on budget days it is not | :04:30. | :04:32. | |
unusual to see the value of the pound fluctuate. Much of the | :04:33. | :04:37. | |
uncertainty flows from the UK's Government irrational refusal to | :04:38. | :04:40. | |
discuss about a currency union. Why is it irrational? It would be | :04:41. | :04:42. | |
against the interests of Scotland but the rest of the UK in terms of | :04:43. | :04:46. | |
transaction costs and losing the value of Scottish exports from the | :04:47. | :04:49. | |
balance of payments now. Why would a rational UK Government turn its back | :04:50. | :04:54. | |
on the vast contribution of Scottish exports to the balance of payments | :04:55. | :04:58. | |
putting its trade deficit. It is Scotland turning its back on the | :04:59. | :05:01. | |
rest of the UK not the rest of the UK turning its back on Scotland? We | :05:02. | :05:06. | |
are not turning our back on anybody, we will be working with friends | :05:07. | :05:10. | |
across the islands but on the basis of equality. It is not just about a | :05:11. | :05:13. | |
country with more of its own control, for some voters it is about | :05:14. | :05:19. | |
escape. We will be laughing at you... . Again and again the no | :05:20. | :05:27. | |
campaign are attacked for being proto-Tories. Exiting is a way of | :05:28. | :05:31. | |
moving away from Conservatives for good. Get the Tories out. What it | :05:32. | :05:38. | |
says is "to end Tory rule forever? " I voted against devolution in 1979, | :05:39. | :05:41. | |
I thought we were the one country. Margaret Thatcher came along and | :05:42. | :05:45. | |
proved we are not. Should people in 2014 be voting to get rid of | :05:46. | :05:49. | |
something that you believe Margaret Thatcher created? That is not | :05:50. | :05:54. | |
exactly looking to the future? Every positive has a negative, we are | :05:55. | :05:57. | |
voting for democracy, that is the most important thing. It will be a | :05:58. | :06:00. | |
total disaster for Scotland. I strongly believe that we are all | :06:01. | :06:08. | |
very much better together. We are intermarried, 400,000 people from | :06:09. | :06:12. | |
the rest of the UK live and work in Scotland. 800,000 people live and | :06:13. | :06:26. | |
work in the UK from Scotland. Absolutely no, I will move to | :06:27. | :06:29. | |
England. You feel as passionately as that? As passionately. Why? Because | :06:30. | :06:36. | |
if you have got any money we're going to be taxed to the hilt. | :06:37. | :06:40. | |
Gordon Brown is determined with his plan to turn yeses to no. But it | :06:41. | :06:45. | |
won't be easy. Whatever the unionists put forward in these last | :06:46. | :06:49. | |
ten days it might struggle to get through. The yes campaign isn't just | :06:50. | :06:53. | |
putting forward an argument for independence, but it is honing in on | :06:54. | :06:58. | |
a distrust, a dislike, a disillusionment with Westminster. | :06:59. | :07:03. | |
And that's starting to work. Unhappy unionists claim their private | :07:04. | :07:07. | |
numbers still hold up. Those who would leave the UK and start anew | :07:08. | :07:12. | |
may have the energy, but yes still feels like maybe. | :07:13. | :07:17. | |
That was We will talk more about that disillusionment in a moment. | :07:18. | :07:21. | |
First to the weekend, and the YouGov poll put the yes campaign ahead for | :07:22. | :07:25. | |
the first time. An independent Scotland now seems more like a | :07:26. | :07:30. | |
realistic possibility. The psephologist John Curtice has put | :07:31. | :07:35. | |
together a poll of polls looking at how what Scotland thinks has changed | :07:36. | :07:38. | |
over the past year. Based on the average of six key polls at the | :07:39. | :07:41. | |
beginning of the year, the no vote was on a lead of 25 points. Now | :07:42. | :07:47. | |
according to YouGov those supporting independence are now at 51%, leaving | :07:48. | :07:54. | |
the no vote lagging behind at 49%. Let's join Professor Curtice right | :07:55. | :07:57. | |
now. And there is a new poll that is coming out tonight. I know that is | :07:58. | :08:01. | |
embargoed until midnight. But some of the papers are looking at it. | :08:02. | :08:04. | |
Broadly, John, does that follow the same thrust as the one this weekend? | :08:05. | :08:11. | |
Well, at the weekend we had two opinion poll, one from YouGov | :08:12. | :08:20. | |
suggesting a dramatic swing putting yes ahead, but Panelbase putting not | :08:21. | :08:27. | |
detecting a swing. It looks from what I have seen that maybe when the | :08:28. | :08:31. | |
poll comes out at midnight we will be confirmed in the view that | :08:32. | :08:35. | |
something has indeed changed and this race looks an awful lot closer. | :08:36. | :08:41. | |
Where you Where do you feel it is changing? Is it to do with age, | :08:42. | :08:48. | |
gender-based The truth is one group seems to be resistant to the idea of | :08:49. | :08:53. | |
an independent Scotland and remains as unconvinced of the idea of it | :08:54. | :08:57. | |
that is the over 60s and the over 65s. The two groups amongst whom | :08:58. | :09:03. | |
there is progress being made, that is more working-class less well off | :09:04. | :09:06. | |
voters who have always been inclined to say that they were more willing | :09:07. | :09:10. | |
to vote yes, they seem to have swung more strongly in numbers to yes. And | :09:11. | :09:19. | |
there is some evidence that the yes side have overcome the gender gap, | :09:20. | :09:23. | |
if it was only men voting the yes vote would have it. Certainly some | :09:24. | :09:27. | |
of the target groups for the yes side, younger voters, working-class | :09:28. | :09:29. | |
voters and women they seem to have made progress under. Do the polls | :09:30. | :09:36. | |
seem to suggest what is driving the change now. I mean when more people | :09:37. | :09:44. | |
appear to be saying yes, or the undecides are no longer undecided | :09:45. | :09:47. | |
what is pushing them? The first thing that is pushing them is the | :09:48. | :09:50. | |
issue we have always known is central to whether or not someone is | :09:51. | :09:54. | |
likely to be a yes or no voter which is whether or not they think that | :09:55. | :09:58. | |
independence will be good or bad for Scotland's economy, that, which | :09:59. | :10:02. | |
according to YouGov was something where as recently as June we almost | :10:03. | :10:07. | |
had twice as many people who said they were pessimistic about the | :10:08. | :10:10. | |
economic consequences were optimistic, those two groups are now | :10:11. | :10:15. | |
roughly equal in size. There has been a dramatic increase in | :10:16. | :10:19. | |
optimisim that independence would make Scotland better, that is a | :10:20. | :10:23. | |
message that has got through to voters who are currently not | :10:24. | :10:26. | |
terribly better off and are looking for a better tomorrow. You may ask | :10:27. | :10:30. | |
how is that possible given that during recent weeks one of the key | :10:31. | :10:35. | |
messages from the no side is Alex Salmond doesn't have a plan for the | :10:36. | :10:37. | |
currency and you can't keep the pound, it will all be disaster. The | :10:38. | :10:43. | |
answer seems to be that the argument on the currency has been overegged | :10:44. | :10:47. | |
by the no side. And that what was already true, that a significant | :10:48. | :10:51. | |
proportion of Scotland's population thought they were bluffing, that | :10:52. | :10:55. | |
proportion has increased considerably by YouGov it is | :10:56. | :10:59. | |
actually only half do so. This raises a question as to whether or | :11:00. | :11:03. | |
not the no side have a credibility problem that voters have stopped | :11:04. | :11:12. | |
believing the claims about the consequences of the division that | :11:13. | :11:19. | |
they are trying to get across. We have the Treasury spokesman with | :11:20. | :11:24. | |
us in London tonight. If it comes down to the economy, what are we to | :11:25. | :11:28. | |
make of the pound today at its lowest rate for some ten months | :11:29. | :11:33. | |
against the dollar, over fears that yes will win? Over the last year the | :11:34. | :11:39. | |
pound has fallen around 1% a day over 16 occasions against the euro, | :11:40. | :11:42. | |
on three occasions against the dollar. So what we are seeing isn't | :11:43. | :11:47. | |
actually that unusual. I think it is less to do with Scottish | :11:48. | :11:51. | |
independence and more to do with the markets being rather spooked by the | :11:52. | :11:56. | |
lack of preparedness of the UK Government, particularly their | :11:57. | :12:00. | |
strange idiotic refusal even to negotiate on a currency union which | :12:01. | :12:04. | |
has Nicola Sturgeon said earlier in the programme is clearly in the best | :12:05. | :12:07. | |
interest to Scotland and the rest of the UK. Right so when Alex Salmond | :12:08. | :12:16. | |
during the debate there were three Plan Bs but refused to explain what | :12:17. | :12:20. | |
would happen without the pound, can you fill in the gaps? What the First | :12:21. | :12:24. | |
Minister all along has said is we have looked at every single one of | :12:25. | :12:32. | |
the options and we know and inAlastair Darling confirmed it, the | :12:33. | :12:35. | |
formal currency union that the commission proposed is the best | :12:36. | :12:38. | |
option. The sterling zone and sterling the currency needs the ?100 | :12:39. | :12:42. | |
billion of Scottish exports receipted in sterling. It needs that | :12:43. | :12:48. | |
desperately. It also is the ?60 billion fair trade from England into | :12:49. | :12:52. | |
Scotland needs to avoid transaction cost that is could destroy hundreds | :12:53. | :12:57. | |
of thousands of English jobs, there are many reasons why currency union | :12:58. | :13:04. | |
makes sense. When you have eminent economists like Professor Krugman | :13:05. | :13:06. | |
today writing there is no way you can join a currency union when the | :13:07. | :13:10. | |
country has refused, not to have control of your own currency, he | :13:11. | :13:15. | |
says, is nightmarish. You are just going to ignore that? I'm not going | :13:16. | :13:19. | |
to ignore it, I will always listen to what the professor says, but one | :13:20. | :13:23. | |
looks at Germany, that uses a shared currency and they are doing rather | :13:24. | :13:26. | |
well. Sterling is our currency as much as the rest of the UK's, for | :13:27. | :13:32. | |
all of the reasons I have given, Scotland's exports are ?100 billion, | :13:33. | :13:37. | |
the ?60 billion of trade from south to north, a currency union is in | :13:38. | :13:41. | |
both country's best interest, the failure of the UK Government so far | :13:42. | :13:44. | |
to enter into serious discussions about this, the campaign tactic of | :13:45. | :13:48. | |
burying their head in the sand and saying no is now coming home to | :13:49. | :13:51. | |
roost. I hope they see sense quickly, that we get the sterling | :13:52. | :13:55. | |
and the currency stablised and we can move forward with independence | :13:56. | :13:59. | |
to continue to trade properly between the countries and for the | :14:00. | :14:04. | |
whole of these islands around the world in sterling. I'm sorry to | :14:05. | :14:09. | |
interrupt, we have seen Gordon Brown come out today, the Chancellor of | :14:10. | :14:13. | |
the Exchequer yesterday talking about plans for details, offerings | :14:14. | :14:18. | |
of what would happen to a loyal Scotland, let as say. Would you say | :14:19. | :14:23. | |
that a no vote would still be a good day for Scotland? No, and I have to | :14:24. | :14:29. | |
say I thought the intervention today by Gordon Brown was bizarre. You | :14:30. | :14:35. | |
know a backbench Labour MP making promises he cannot possibly keep, | :14:36. | :14:39. | |
expecting a Tory Government to implement a Labour devolution plan, | :14:40. | :14:44. | |
the weakest of the three plans that the three unionists parties have | :14:45. | :14:48. | |
previously proposed and they are pretending some how bizarrely this | :14:49. | :14:51. | |
was the best thing we could possibly have. The only way to get the power | :14:52. | :14:57. | |
Scotland needs to save the NHS, to grow the economy, to create jobs is | :14:58. | :15:01. | |
to vote yes and the only reason, there is no devolution proposal on | :15:02. | :15:04. | |
the ballot paper is because people like Gordon Brown and David Cameron | :15:05. | :15:10. | |
couldn't agree 18 months ago so we have a yes-no vote and everybody now | :15:11. | :15:14. | |
knows the yes vote is the only way to deliver the power Scotland needs. | :15:15. | :15:23. | |
Thank you very much indeed. Douglas Alexander has been listening to | :15:24. | :15:27. | |
that. Isn't that the truth that if you had actually got the third | :15:28. | :15:33. | |
question, what used to be called Devo Max or some form of extended | :15:34. | :15:38. | |
powers for Scotland you wouldn't anybody this mess now? That wouldn't | :15:39. | :15:43. | |
satisfy the nationalist, the key question is in or out of the UK. | :15:44. | :15:50. | |
Today was the day reality interrupted the story the | :15:51. | :15:53. | |
nationalists are trying to say. We saw ?2 billion off the stocks of | :15:54. | :15:57. | |
Scottish companies, that is real people's pensions and the threat to | :15:58. | :16:00. | |
real people's jobs. That was on the basis of a single opinion poll. | :16:01. | :16:04. | |
These are not threats that are being made, that is the facts of what the | :16:05. | :16:09. | |
market today judged would be the potential consequences of a decision | :16:10. | :16:11. | |
to vote yes on September 18th. Was Gordon Brown part of that reality. | :16:12. | :16:16. | |
When on earth did you think he was going to come and debate, he was | :16:17. | :16:20. | |
never been an electoral Viagra for you? He secured a record number of | :16:21. | :16:24. | |
votes for Labour in 2010 in Scotland. And the fact is he speaks | :16:25. | :16:28. | |
with great authority, not just as a former Prime Minister, but someone | :16:29. | :16:33. | |
who has revoted his whole life to secure Home Rule within the UK in | :16:34. | :16:36. | |
Scotland. What he has done today is set out both a timetable for | :16:37. | :16:40. | |
legislation and an agenda for change. You knew he was going to do | :16:41. | :16:44. | |
that today? I certainly did. How long ago did you know it was coming? | :16:45. | :16:48. | |
As Gordon said, we have been pushing the British Government for weeks. | :16:49. | :16:51. | |
There were further conversations last week, directly involving | :16:52. | :16:56. | |
Gordon, so that there was maximum clarity for voters before September | :16:57. | :16:59. | |
18th. When you say pushing you mean you would like this to come a lot | :17:00. | :17:02. | |
earlier? We have said for months we think there is a case for bringing | :17:03. | :17:06. | |
the maximum degree of clarity to this debate. The three parties have | :17:07. | :17:10. | |
had their own proposals and published over a series of months. | :17:11. | :17:13. | |
Voters will know with certainty we will have within months a new | :17:14. | :17:17. | |
Scotland Act that will deliver, if I'm honest what most people in | :17:18. | :17:23. | |
Scotland want. That is more decisions taken across the road in | :17:24. | :17:28. | |
Scotland, but backed up by the strength and security of the UK. | :17:29. | :17:32. | |
This is a significant day in the campaign. Are people right to think | :17:33. | :17:37. | |
if they want less of a Tory Government, as you do, they should | :17:38. | :17:41. | |
vote yes? The last thing they should do is choose a currency union which | :17:42. | :17:46. | |
would involve no control effectively for Scotland over interest rates, | :17:47. | :17:49. | |
borrowing and levels of taxation that would be set by a foreign | :17:50. | :17:51. | |
Government over which we would have no democratic say. The truth is I'm | :17:52. | :17:55. | |
here in Scotland with two Governments I don't agree. I'm | :17:56. | :17:58. | |
unyield anything my opposition to the Conservatives, and I | :17:59. | :18:00. | |
fundamentally disagree with the Scottish nationalists. It is in the | :18:01. | :18:03. | |
character of a democracy that you don't always get the Government you | :18:04. | :18:08. | |
vote for. But a youngster voting for the first time on September 18th | :18:09. | :18:11. | |
will have lived three-quarters of her life under a UK Labour | :18:12. | :18:14. | |
Government. Some how the nationalist Government that you never get the | :18:15. | :18:16. | |
Government you want. The only circumstances in which you always | :18:17. | :18:19. | |
get the Government you want is a one-party state. I don't think | :18:20. | :18:23. | |
anybody is recommending that. Is it going to plan for you, is it going | :18:24. | :18:28. | |
on track? I believe we will win on September 18th, but I don't take it | :18:29. | :18:32. | |
for granted, we are not complacent. You weren't surprised by the poll at | :18:33. | :18:35. | |
the weekend? There is a lot of emotion swilling around in Scotland | :18:36. | :18:38. | |
today. I understand that, it is a decision of the head and heart. But | :18:39. | :18:42. | |
if people vote yes that is just about emotion? I think that of | :18:43. | :18:46. | |
course contributes to the fact that you can't walk along the street in | :18:47. | :18:49. | |
Scotland without people talking about the referendum. People are | :18:50. | :18:53. | |
making up their minds. The more people know about it and this is | :18:54. | :18:56. | |
what the yes campaign said, the more they know about it? I don't think | :18:57. | :19:02. | |
anyone will listen to the interview you conducted a few minutes ago and | :19:03. | :19:06. | |
say we know much, we don't know Plan B. We don't know how to protect the | :19:07. | :19:10. | |
National Health Service in Scotland when you are looking at an | :19:11. | :19:16. | |
additional ?6 billion of cuts, those are the numbers of the Institute of | :19:17. | :19:21. | |
Fiscal Studies. There are profound uncertainties, my sense is in the | :19:22. | :19:24. | |
closing days of the campaign the judgments people will make will not | :19:25. | :19:27. | |
just be national, in Scotland's interest, but also very personal. | :19:28. | :19:31. | |
And given we saw ?2 billion wiped off Scottish shares today, I think | :19:32. | :19:34. | |
that will weigh heavily on people as minds. You heard John Curtice who | :19:35. | :19:38. | |
stands as an independent in this argument, what he was saying is the | :19:39. | :19:41. | |
more you have pushed the currency issue the more it has rebounded on | :19:42. | :19:47. | |
the Better Together campaign. People don't trust you when you thrust that | :19:48. | :19:51. | |
in their face? You don't have to take my word for it, look at the | :19:52. | :19:54. | |
markets and the judgment in relation to Scottish shares. The fact is that | :19:55. | :19:58. | |
we do have an exceptionally good deal for Scotland with the prospect | :19:59. | :20:03. | |
of more powers across the road but with the strengths, stability and | :20:04. | :20:06. | |
the security of the United Kingdom behind us. Why is it in our | :20:07. | :20:11. | |
interests to shrink the whole market of Scotland from 64 million | :20:12. | :20:15. | |
consumers to five million. The blunt truth is none of the Better Together | :20:16. | :20:18. | |
campaign thought they would be in this position just ten days before | :20:19. | :20:22. | |
the vote. Do you think it could have been played better, with slightly | :20:23. | :20:29. | |
less condescension, and slightly more appeal. When people ask why | :20:30. | :20:32. | |
isn't it already Better Together, what is your response? We are ?1200 | :20:33. | :20:37. | |
per head of population better off in terms of public expenditure each and | :20:38. | :20:40. | |
every year because we get a good deal from Scotland. Secondly how has | :20:41. | :20:45. | |
Scotland gone from being one of the poorest parts of the UK to one of | :20:46. | :20:49. | |
the richest over the last 30 years. We are a prosperous and successful | :20:50. | :20:52. | |
nation within a larger state of the United Kingdom. Of course I want to | :20:53. | :20:56. | |
see change, but change is coming. This Government has a mandate of | :20:57. | :20:59. | |
only eight months left to run. Even tonight we have had two further | :21:00. | :21:03. | |
opinion polls across the UK showing the prospect of a Labour Government | :21:04. | :21:05. | |
is very real and immediate. What we have learned today is not just that | :21:06. | :21:08. | |
change is coming to the institution, but I believe we will see with a | :21:09. | :21:11. | |
Labour Government the kind of changes that most people here in | :21:12. | :21:14. | |
Scotland want to see. Thank you very much. It is not quite time for | :21:15. | :21:20. | |
bitter recriminations but the blame game isn't that far off, Westminster | :21:21. | :21:25. | |
as a body shrugged off accusations of blind panic today as politicians | :21:26. | :21:31. | |
from the main parties offered plans of the details that would greet the | :21:32. | :21:36. | |
news of an independent Scotland. Is it dislike of anything Westminster | :21:37. | :21:39. | |
that is really driving the yes campaign? Our political editor | :21:40. | :21:48. | |
reports. 307 years of history but in just ten | :21:49. | :21:53. | |
days the union could unravel. Since the first opinion poll showing yes | :21:54. | :21:56. | |
could win it the last 36 hours of panic in Westminster have ensured | :21:57. | :21:59. | |
that even if it is a no vote Scotland is going to be a very | :22:00. | :22:04. | |
different place. There has been much fear and trembling in Westminster | :22:05. | :22:07. | |
today as politicians woke up to the fact that Scotland really could go | :22:08. | :22:12. | |
it alone. After jockeying behind the scenes it became Gordon Brown, the | :22:13. | :22:14. | |
former Labour Prime Minister who made a speech this evening, setting | :22:15. | :22:18. | |
out the timetable for the handover of powers to Scotland. Except many | :22:19. | :22:23. | |
in Westminster worry that even this won't cut it. That what the people | :22:24. | :22:28. | |
of Scotland want to hear about, is not some dry process, but talk of | :22:29. | :22:33. | |
fresh powers. Under Gordon Brown's timetable come Burns Night in | :22:34. | :22:37. | |
January 2015 there will be new powers for Scotland. But what will | :22:38. | :22:40. | |
the areas of agreement be? The former Prime Minister announced | :22:41. | :22:45. | |
today that he thinks Hollyrood should set a far larger chunk of | :22:46. | :22:49. | |
income tax to Scotland. These are not signed off by all at | :22:50. | :22:54. | |
Westminster. What could they all endorse? This evening's senior | :22:55. | :22:58. | |
sources have told me to expect movement on tax, public spending and | :22:59. | :23:02. | |
welfare. But income tax is the biggy. This is where the parties | :23:03. | :23:08. | |
currently stand, Scotland-Labour has suggested increase tax varying | :23:09. | :23:13. | |
powers, MSPs should be able to vary tax by up to 15p, they would be | :23:14. | :23:17. | |
allowed to restore the 50p rate for top earners, but if they wanted to | :23:18. | :23:21. | |
cut the 45p rate they would only be able to do so if they cut the basic | :23:22. | :23:26. | |
rate as well. Quite prescriptive. The Conservatives think there should | :23:27. | :23:30. | |
be full income tax powers. Making the Scottish Parliament accountable | :23:31. | :23:34. | |
for 40% of the money it spends. They think a Scottish Parliament could | :23:35. | :23:38. | |
decide on tax rates and bands. The Lib Dems too would hand a lot of | :23:39. | :23:43. | |
this over. The Liberal Democrats and Tories are quite close together on | :23:44. | :23:47. | |
income tax what about Labour. Ed Miliband's hitherto has been | :23:48. | :23:50. | |
reluctant to add anything on income tax, he's said not to want a race to | :23:51. | :23:54. | |
the bottom a low tax regime over the boreder in Scotland. But Labour has | :23:55. | :23:58. | |
been criticised in this campaign for not offering the Scottish people | :23:59. | :24:02. | |
enough on tax. So they may feel they need to make a bold gesture. One | :24:03. | :24:10. | |
cabinet minister indicated to me today it could be substantial | :24:11. | :24:14. | |
amounts of welfare handed over to Scotland. Treasury sources are also | :24:15. | :24:18. | |
highlighting that much of welfare policy is already devolved to | :24:19. | :24:22. | |
Northern Ireland. Scottish Labour has suggested housing benefit should | :24:23. | :24:29. | |
be devolved to Hollyrood, allowing Scotland to get rid of the so called | :24:30. | :24:37. | |
bedroom tax. The Tories believe other things could go north. On this | :24:38. | :24:41. | |
it looks like Labour and the Tories are not that far apart. My | :24:42. | :24:44. | |
understanding is there will be movement. Total panic stations from | :24:45. | :24:48. | |
the no campaign, they have gone behind in the polls and it is | :24:49. | :24:52. | |
because they don't have a big idea and they are hoping frankly, that | :24:53. | :24:56. | |
the people of Scotland are pretty stupid and didn't notice there was | :24:57. | :25:00. | |
no detail. We have seen no joint plan from the no parties, they have | :25:01. | :25:05. | |
been asked for it, where is their Plan A, and all we have is a | :25:06. | :25:10. | |
timetable, we have a long memory, we know being told to vote no for a | :25:11. | :25:14. | |
stronger parliament and we got 18 years of Margaret Thatcher. No thank | :25:15. | :25:18. | |
you. I want a Scotland that will govern itself, and I'm voting yes | :25:19. | :25:22. | |
and a lot of other people are. If there was a serious handover of | :25:23. | :25:25. | |
power north of the border there will have to be significant shifts down | :25:26. | :25:28. | |
south. One senior Conservative told me that the sight of separatist | :25:29. | :25:33. | |
Scottish MPs voting on issues that only affect the English would drive | :25:34. | :25:37. | |
UKIP wild. David Cameron, they said, will have to act. Senior figures in | :25:38. | :25:43. | |
Westminster are right now negotiating on a new powers. Trying | :25:44. | :25:46. | |
to find agreement in the months ahead of a general election usually | :25:47. | :25:49. | |
characterised by bitter disagreement. Not easy. | :25:50. | :25:58. | |
That was Here in Edinburgh is great place to talk about what those new | :25:59. | :26:02. | |
powers that the parliament, the Government could have. Lindsay | :26:03. | :26:05. | |
McIntosh is the Scottish political editor of the Times, she's here with | :26:06. | :26:09. | |
us now. And from London Fraser Nelson, the editor of the Spectator, | :26:10. | :26:13. | |
and is it your sense, Lindsay, that will be enough to sway people if | :26:14. | :26:18. | |
they come now or will it look like panic stations? I think it is very | :26:19. | :26:21. | |
important what Gordon Brown has done today, what we saw yesterday from | :26:22. | :26:25. | |
the Chancellor did look panicked. It allowed Alex Salmond to say, first | :26:26. | :26:28. | |
they tried to threaten us, then they tried to bribe us. But giving Gordon | :26:29. | :26:32. | |
Brown control of the situation, he's a man that has respect in Scotland | :26:33. | :26:36. | |
that perhaps has diminished elsewhere. He's been involved in | :26:37. | :26:39. | |
this debate for a long time. The speech that he gave tonight is very | :26:40. | :26:42. | |
similar to speeches he has made in the past. He's not coming to this | :26:43. | :26:46. | |
anew. And there is trust for him up here that some of the other party | :26:47. | :26:50. | |
leaders don't have. And you think that can work hand in glove with | :26:51. | :26:53. | |
what the Chancellor is offering, or are those two going to start seeming | :26:54. | :26:58. | |
to be offering divergent things? I think for Better Together's sake | :26:59. | :27:01. | |
what they need do is keep some of the Westminster politicians out of | :27:02. | :27:04. | |
this, and leave it to the Better Together campaign to hold things | :27:05. | :27:08. | |
together. As they have actually done reasonably admirably over the last | :27:09. | :27:11. | |
couple of years, given the diversity of views within that organisation. | :27:12. | :27:16. | |
Fraser, an interesting turn of events when Gordon Brown is getting | :27:17. | :27:20. | |
the praise now for bringing people to the table? Yes it is rather | :27:21. | :27:24. | |
strange. And of course he's dishing out blame as well, we heard him | :27:25. | :27:28. | |
saying how he would have done earlier if it wasn't for the beastly | :27:29. | :27:33. | |
Tories. I do think the unionists have a fundamental problem here. | :27:34. | :27:37. | |
Alex Salmond wanted originally for there to be questions on the ballot | :27:38. | :27:41. | |
paper, the status quo, separation and more powers for Scottish | :27:42. | :27:44. | |
politicians. David Cameron ruled it out, quite rightly. But now he's | :27:45. | :27:47. | |
saying he wants to put it back in, right at the last few days of the | :27:48. | :27:50. | |
campaign. So I'm really not sure this will be credible and nor am I | :27:51. | :27:57. | |
sure that the promise of control over housing benefit is going to | :27:58. | :28:00. | |
sway that many voters in Scotland. The time for doing this was six | :28:01. | :28:05. | |
months ago. That is when you could have advanced a devo max option as | :28:06. | :28:09. | |
it is called, and during that time there was more support for that an | :28:10. | :28:12. | |
independence. That has changed now. That ship has sailed. I can't quite | :28:13. | :28:18. | |
see that the tactical logic behind doing what they are doing now. There | :28:19. | :28:24. | |
was a tacit criticism, if you think this ship has sailed, that the | :28:25. | :28:27. | |
Tories weren't on board earlier, from Douglas Alexander when I spoke | :28:28. | :28:30. | |
to him a few moments ago, he said Gordon Brown wanted to get this | :28:31. | :28:35. | |
stuff out months ago? He did, the Tories were right to reject it then. | :28:36. | :28:39. | |
I'm not quite sure what they think will change by doing this now. If | :28:40. | :28:43. | |
you look at what has happened in the last two weeks, about 95% of Tories | :28:44. | :28:51. | |
in Scotland will vote no. It is the Labour camp who are defecting to the | :28:52. | :28:55. | |
yes campaign and so they are bringing in Gordon Brown and saying | :28:56. | :28:59. | |
look speak Labour language to them and see if you can bring them over. | :29:00. | :29:03. | |
It is an understandable gambit, but I don't think it is about this now. | :29:04. | :29:10. | |
It is not about adding a couple of constitutional levers up to Scottish | :29:11. | :29:12. | |
politician, it is about making an emotional case for the union. That | :29:13. | :29:15. | |
is what they should be doing in the last few days of this campaign. It | :29:16. | :29:20. | |
seems as if the unionists just seem unwilling in principle to talk about | :29:21. | :29:23. | |
Britain and the love of it in the same way that the nationalists talk | :29:24. | :29:27. | |
about Scotland. I mean there is plenty of passion for the union. I | :29:28. | :29:31. | |
think they have to do both. I would agree with Fraser there. The | :29:32. | :29:36. | |
constitutional settlement has to be dealt with. We need to talk about | :29:37. | :29:39. | |
more powers, fine. We need to do that on the one hand, but on the | :29:40. | :29:44. | |
other hand, the unionists need to make a positive case for remaining | :29:45. | :29:48. | |
within the UK. And that would be my main criticism of what they have | :29:49. | :29:54. | |
done so far. This then obviously opens the door to, as car win Jones | :29:55. | :29:58. | |
was tweeting to Wales and Northern Ireland, and then talking about more | :29:59. | :30:02. | |
devolved powers for everyone? Which is why they didn't want to have this | :30:03. | :30:06. | |
argument to start with. It is a separate issue as opposed to | :30:07. | :30:13. | |
Scottish independent. Scottish independence is a binary selle the, | :30:14. | :30:18. | |
and along the lines of devolution is a separate question. If you are in | :30:19. | :30:23. | |
the no camp or the Better Together camp you say no to independence and | :30:24. | :30:28. | |
then you still get these extra devolved powers. Do you think some | :30:29. | :30:31. | |
people will not want that at all? Yes, there will be quite a few | :30:32. | :30:35. | |
people who don't think Scotland has benefitted that much from | :30:36. | :30:41. | |
devolution. And they can't quite see why giving the Scottish politicians | :30:42. | :30:43. | |
more power will make Scotland better, given the powers they have | :30:44. | :30:47. | |
got haven't been a wild success in the last 15 years. But those guys | :30:48. | :30:52. | |
are not represented. They are in a minority, they are not represented. | :30:53. | :30:55. | |
Right now as we can understand it there are only two options in the | :30:56. | :31:00. | |
ballots paper, one is for complete separation and the other for a whole | :31:01. | :31:04. | |
lot more powers to the Scottish Parliament. The status quo option | :31:05. | :31:08. | |
seems to have been taken off the table. | :31:09. | :31:12. | |
Thank you both very much indeed. If there are jitters right now in | :31:13. | :31:15. | |
the Better Together campaign they are being felt tanningably by the | :31:16. | :31:18. | |
markets as we were discussing earlier. The pound plunged to its | :31:19. | :31:23. | |
lowest level against the dollar for ten months as the first poll emerged | :31:24. | :31:28. | |
that Scotland was are the to go it alone. The strongest card the Better | :31:29. | :31:33. | |
Together has played in its insistence threat is Scotland could | :31:34. | :31:35. | |
no longer keep the pound. Would it prove to be a bullying argument or a | :31:36. | :31:42. | |
persuasive one. Duncan Weldon, our economics correspondent is in the | :31:43. | :31:46. | |
City of London for us. Talk us through what happened today? Behind | :31:47. | :31:54. | |
me is the City, they have had dramatic day with huge moves. | :31:55. | :31:56. | |
Starting with the one you mentioned, the currency. Today the pound lost | :31:57. | :32:00. | |
1% of value against the US dollar and down a per cent against the | :32:01. | :32:06. | |
euro. 1% may not sound like a big move, but for a major international | :32:07. | :32:11. | |
currency that is a big move. It wasn't just the currency market that | :32:12. | :32:16. | |
saw the turbulence, the shares of big companies that sell to Scotland, | :32:17. | :32:22. | |
Lloyd's of Scotland, Babcot, they were down heavily as well. When I | :32:23. | :32:28. | |
talked to Stuart Hosier from the SNP, he said it wasn't a cram matk | :32:29. | :32:33. | |
move and happening grabbed -- dramatically, and happening | :32:34. | :32:36. | |
gradually, he blamed the Better Together for refusing to allow the | :32:37. | :32:40. | |
currency union? Well I think the thing is, this is definitely being | :32:41. | :32:48. | |
driven by uncertainty. There are so many unanswered questions, all very | :32:49. | :32:52. | |
important to the British and Scottish economies, what currency | :32:53. | :32:56. | |
will they use, what will happen with the debt. Doesn't exit make the rest | :32:57. | :33:00. | |
of the UK more likely to exit the EU. What happens to oil revenue, how | :33:01. | :33:05. | |
does it affect UK exports. These are all really big questions to which we | :33:06. | :33:09. | |
don't have answers. If there is one thing the markets don't like is | :33:10. | :33:12. | |
uncertainty, today we have a lot of uncertainty. | :33:13. | :33:15. | |
More tomorrow. More in the next few weeks, where do you think this is | :33:16. | :33:21. | |
going, briefly? Very briefly I think the next ten days are going to be | :33:22. | :33:25. | |
volatile. The markets, people over there will be watching all the polls | :33:26. | :33:30. | |
very closely. If we get a no vote the feeling of the people I have | :33:31. | :33:34. | |
been speaking to is you will quickly see Scottish share prices come up | :33:35. | :33:37. | |
and more value back in sterling. If we get a yes vote all the unanswered | :33:38. | :33:42. | |
questions become a lot more real. Both sides are currently working on | :33:43. | :33:45. | |
the assumption you have 18 months to sort it out after a yes vote. I | :33:46. | :33:48. | |
think there will be an awful lot of market pressure to get an answer | :33:49. | :33:55. | |
much quicker er, if we get a yes vote. | :33:56. | :33:57. | |
What about those the other side of the border in this debate, the | :33:58. | :34:02. | |
voices that don't get a vote, but may feel passionately about the | :34:03. | :34:05. | |
question that is being asked. A year ago we hosted a debate on the union | :34:06. | :34:09. | |
bridge that straddles the Tweed. It was a moment the yes campaign | :34:10. | :34:12. | |
emerged as winners. We returned to the very spot and sent this report. | :34:13. | :34:18. | |
Obviously the debate about Scottish independence has mainly focussed on | :34:19. | :34:21. | |
the people who live behind me in Scotland. But what of the other | :34:22. | :34:26. | |
participants in this 300-year-old marriage. What does it mean for the | :34:27. | :34:37. | |
people who live over there? For nearly 200 years the union bridge | :34:38. | :34:43. | |
over the River Tweed has witnessed a changed world and the UK. A year ago | :34:44. | :34:46. | |
it was the site of Newsnight's live debate on the future of Scotland. It | :34:47. | :34:53. | |
has, shall we say, had much water under the bridge since then. For the | :34:54. | :34:56. | |
entirety of the referendum campaign there has been an assumption this | :34:57. | :34:59. | |
side of the Scottish border that voters here don't really need to | :35:00. | :35:03. | |
worry too much about what's going on over there. Afterall, the poll | :35:04. | :35:08. | |
suggests that independence was going to be comfortably defeated. Now | :35:09. | :35:12. | |
though some polls suggest a different picture. So what are | :35:13. | :35:17. | |
voters over here thinking now? Barry and Nantesy Smith are on holiday | :35:18. | :35:20. | |
here from Staffordshire. The changing polls worry them. We go on | :35:21. | :35:25. | |
holiday to Scotland regularly, this is the third or fourth time in the | :35:26. | :35:28. | |
last three or four years, we love going north of the border. But it | :35:29. | :35:32. | |
doesn't feel like we are going abroad. Maybe in future it will do. | :35:33. | :35:38. | |
As an English person I'm proud to be British. I just feel that we are the | :35:39. | :35:44. | |
British Isles and we're better together, better united together | :35:45. | :35:47. | |
than going our separate ways, we could be and are stronger together. | :35:48. | :35:51. | |
The boreder between England and Scotland has many reminders of | :35:52. | :35:56. | |
centuries of conflict. On the Berwick ramparts, build to protect | :35:57. | :36:02. | |
the town from attacking Scots I get Phil Johnson, he's the editor of two | :36:03. | :36:09. | |
newspapers, the Berwickshire News for Scottish reader and the Berwick | :36:10. | :36:14. | |
Advertiser for English readers. Many identify themselves with the town | :36:15. | :36:20. | |
rather than Scottish or English. If there was an international border of | :36:21. | :36:23. | |
course things would change, but perhaps not culturally. There would | :36:24. | :36:28. | |
still be cross-border links remaining the same. A lot might | :36:29. | :36:32. | |
depend on what Scottish independence looks like. Walking through Berwick | :36:33. | :36:36. | |
you get the impression of a town that looks in two directions | :36:37. | :36:40. | |
overlapping cultural identities common. | :36:41. | :36:46. | |
What would it mean for you as a west Highland terrier do you think? | :36:47. | :36:54. | |
Anything? Anything in particular? (Barks) if Scotland were another | :36:55. | :36:57. | |
country, a separate foreign country, different state, would that bother | :36:58. | :37:02. | |
you? They just do what they want to do any way. There is a Scottish | :37:03. | :37:07. | |
souvenir shop in England. English and Scottish tourists it seems have | :37:08. | :37:12. | |
different tastes. You have to do different orders because the | :37:13. | :37:14. | |
Scottish people generally, even though they are coming to England | :37:15. | :37:17. | |
won't take anything with an English flag. Really, some of them will, but | :37:18. | :37:23. | |
a lot of them won't touch anything with an English flag. English people | :37:24. | :37:27. | |
even though not quite in Scotland yet are happy to take the Scottish | :37:28. | :37:30. | |
flag. That is really interesting? Just some people just won't touch | :37:31. | :37:35. | |
anything with an English flag. The town behind me has changed hands | :37:36. | :37:39. | |
between England and Scotland 13-times over the course of its | :37:40. | :37:44. | |
history. Talking to people today about the prospect of further | :37:45. | :37:49. | |
constitutional upheaval, the emotions I have most encountered are | :37:50. | :37:53. | |
uncertainty about the future and sadness. This union chain bridge | :37:54. | :37:58. | |
spans Britain's life as great power. Opened just five years after the | :37:59. | :38:02. | |
Battle of Waterloo, it stood during the golden age of Britishness. It | :38:03. | :38:08. | |
may begin its next chapter brackets by border posts. The union gone and | :38:09. | :38:16. | |
the chain broken. The Scottish historian Tom Devine is | :38:17. | :38:21. | |
here, with Miral Somerset-Webb editor of Money Week who lives in | :38:22. | :38:26. | |
Edinburgh. We have a passionate unionist from Boston joining us too. | :38:27. | :38:29. | |
Thank you very much for joining us. Tom if it is a yes next week will | :38:30. | :38:35. | |
you be happy? Mixed feelings obviously. I have come out in | :38:36. | :38:40. | |
support of the yes campaign, reluctantly if you will. But I'm | :38:41. | :38:44. | |
conscious of the fact that would only be the | :38:45. | :38:46. | |
conscious of the fact that would process. First of all there would be | :38:47. | :38:50. | |
the post-referendum discussion, the management of the process. And then | :38:51. | :38:57. | |
you know given the long sent trees of connection there will then be | :38:58. | :39:01. | |
challenges, major challenges ahead for the, if you like the new | :39:02. | :39:07. | |
Scottish nation. And of course there is also the sense of leaving a very | :39:08. | :39:12. | |
good and old friend, in one way. But I hope that what's referred to as | :39:13. | :39:17. | |
the social union, if you like, the sociocultural union, will in the | :39:18. | :39:20. | |
long run be strengthened, because one of the reasons I have come to | :39:21. | :39:25. | |
this conclusion is that the union itself is no longer fit for purpose, | :39:26. | :39:32. | |
it is a destablising factor within the British Isles. It is interesting | :39:33. | :39:36. | |
that you say leaving a good and old friend, a lot of people imagining it | :39:37. | :39:40. | |
as a turning their backs on something they dislike. Let me ask | :39:41. | :39:46. | |
you, as a Brit, living in Scotland, do you think it would be odd to be | :39:47. | :39:53. | |
here after a yes vote? Yeah, I think it would be very odd indeed. When I | :39:54. | :39:57. | |
first moved to Scotland it never occurred to me that there was a | :39:58. | :40:01. | |
group of people who felt there was intense difference between the | :40:02. | :40:04. | |
English and Scottish and Britain was divided T would be very strange to | :40:05. | :40:07. | |
feel one lives on the same island but in a different country. Have you | :40:08. | :40:11. | |
been treated like that as the you have been living, clearly you have | :40:12. | :40:14. | |
chosen to make Scotland your home, so you don't feel like you are not | :40:15. | :40:19. | |
welcome here? Generally not, it is not until very recently that there | :40:20. | :40:23. | |
has begun to feel a difference between people perceived as English | :40:24. | :40:28. | |
and people certificate received as Scottish -- perceived as Scottish, I | :40:29. | :40:34. | |
find it strange and unfortunately. Neal sorry we can't see, do you | :40:35. | :40:40. | |
believe it is driven by a nationalism or a sense of coming of | :40:41. | :40:43. | |
age. What do you think is behind this? I think it is driven by a kind | :40:44. | :40:48. | |
of collective madness from the advantage points of the millions of | :40:49. | :40:52. | |
Scots who don't live in Scotland. And we vastly outnumber those who | :40:53. | :40:57. | |
do. This is just astonishing to behold. I live in the United States, | :40:58. | :41:02. | |
but still feel myself every inch a Scotsman. But this is a bit like | :41:03. | :41:06. | |
Colorado seeking its independence, or if you want a European version it | :41:07. | :41:11. | |
is a little bit as if a member of the United Kingdom is opting to | :41:12. | :41:15. | |
become Slovakia, because that is just how important Scotland will be | :41:16. | :41:20. | |
in the world if it takes this extraordinary and economically | :41:21. | :41:22. | |
suicidal step. I think from the advantage point of an economic | :41:23. | :41:27. | |
historian this is obviously going to be a disastrous move, we are just | :41:28. | :41:30. | |
seeing how big a disaster it will be. It is worth saying how munda | :41:31. | :41:37. | |
Chris, ous the Scottish nationalists have been throughout the campaign | :41:38. | :41:41. | |
talking about the benefits to Scotland, there is no benefits, | :41:42. | :41:47. | |
Scotland will lose heavily with this divorce, I'm sure Tom must feel that | :41:48. | :41:50. | |
and why he feels regret about what is happening. This will be, make no | :41:51. | :41:55. | |
mistake a disaster, the sad thing is we have made the case so negatively | :41:56. | :41:59. | |
when there is clearly a positive case to be made for the United | :42:00. | :42:02. | |
Kingdom. As Fraser Nelson said earlier in the programme. The last | :42:03. | :42:10. | |
statement made I can agree with. If this happens in the yes sense, then | :42:11. | :42:14. | |
later historians will to a large extent I think blame the no campaign | :42:15. | :42:22. | |
for its inadequacies, and blame Cameron for not agreeing to a | :42:23. | :42:26. | |
three-part referendum. If you go back to Neal Ferguson, I hope that | :42:27. | :42:32. | |
he won't mind me reminding him as a Scottish expatriot that he was the | :42:33. | :42:36. | |
author of the famous press statement a number of years ago calling my | :42:37. | :42:40. | |
country the Belarus of the west. And saying that it should be wound up. | :42:41. | :42:47. | |
That is exactly what... Hold on a second. That is exactly what you | :42:48. | :42:52. | |
will be voting for. I know that Harvard is place of civilised gent | :42:53. | :42:57. | |
tillity, and I know you will allow me to speak. What I'm saying to you | :42:58. | :43:04. | |
is this, once argued that there was, that this nation was inadequate and | :43:05. | :43:12. | |
that in fact its assets should be offloaded and be recalled north | :43:13. | :43:16. | |
Britain, I don't think you can speak impartially given that background | :43:17. | :43:21. | |
which I know you can't indicate you didn't say it. You can't talk | :43:22. | :43:27. | |
impartially about this. If I may I'm being entirely impartial, if I may | :43:28. | :43:32. | |
answer, that I'm being entirely impartial, you are voting to become | :43:33. | :43:37. | |
Belarus, this won't turn Scotland into some fancy Scandinavian place, | :43:38. | :43:42. | |
it will be an impoverished back water. I admire some of your | :43:43. | :43:50. | |
writings, not all. But what you have just said is blatant nonsense. Let | :43:51. | :43:54. | |
me bring you in. You get a real sense of the passions that are | :43:55. | :43:58. | |
clearly going to be toe foremost right now -- to be at the foremost | :43:59. | :44:03. | |
right now. Is that civil campaign, have you felt intimidated one way or | :44:04. | :44:07. | |
another? If you spend too much time on Twitter you almost feel | :44:08. | :44:12. | |
uncivilised and threatened. Generally a civilised debate. At | :44:13. | :44:15. | |
each end you get people who get very angry about things. Because you have | :44:16. | :44:19. | |
extremists at either end of the debate it has made people feel there | :44:20. | :44:22. | |
is something of a difference between the Scottish and everybody else. | :44:23. | :44:25. | |
When there genuinely isn't. If you look at all the survey, the social | :44:26. | :44:30. | |
attitude surveys for Britons and Scotland, you find that the | :44:31. | :44:35. | |
attitudes of the Scottish and British on almost everything are | :44:36. | :44:39. | |
verging on identical, there is no difference between us culturally and | :44:40. | :44:44. | |
socially it is exaggerated by the campaigns. This is extraordinary, | :44:45. | :44:48. | |
there are major differences in political culture and voting | :44:49. | :44:51. | |
patterns between the two countries, and there have been since the 1980s. | :44:52. | :44:58. | |
This is in no way an anti-English campaign, the Scots applauded the | :44:59. | :45:02. | |
English team when they entered the arena at Celtic park at the | :45:03. | :45:05. | |
beginning of the Commonwealth Games, this is an issue with governance and | :45:06. | :45:08. | |
self-determination. I said what it was doing was exaggerating | :45:09. | :45:12. | |
differences between peoples that don't exist which is a very | :45:13. | :45:16. | |
different thing. There are a couple of key points there, do you think | :45:17. | :45:20. | |
that relations between the Scots and, if you like, the English would | :45:21. | :45:24. | |
improve after this, do you think there is a chance, or do you think | :45:25. | :45:27. | |
this is the start of a much bigger sense of federalism for the whole of | :45:28. | :45:33. | |
the UK now? That's an easy question to answer historically, because when | :45:34. | :45:38. | |
Scotland was an independent state its relations with England were | :45:39. | :45:42. | |
extremely bad. As your earlier report mentioned the border between | :45:43. | :45:46. | |
the two countries was more or less a permanent warzone, I won't say that | :45:47. | :45:50. | |
will happen any time stone. The acrimony will only get worse, when | :45:51. | :45:54. | |
we get down to the nitty gritty, if there is a yes vote of who exactly | :45:55. | :45:59. | |
will bear the burden of the national debt and where the oil revenues will | :46:00. | :46:03. | |
go. This will get much uglier than it is. The idea that Tom says we | :46:04. | :46:08. | |
will some how get on better after a divorced suggests he has never been | :46:09. | :46:13. | |
through a divorce. Thank you all very much indeed. Now just before we | :46:14. | :46:19. | |
go we can show you the front page of tomorrow's Times. This is a TNS poll | :46:20. | :46:29. | |
and excluding the "don't noes" those figures rest at exactly 50% for the | :46:30. | :46:34. | |
yes campaign, 50% clearly for the Better Together. That does not | :46:35. | :46:41. | |
include the "don't knows" but that is the poll leading the Times | :46:42. | :46:46. | |
tomorrow, a TNS poll which tells you at the moment it is too close to | :46:47. | :46:51. | |
call. That is it from all of us from here, from Edinburgh tonight there | :46:52. | :46:55. | |
are nine days left until polling day, thank you for joining us, good | :46:56. | :46:56. | |
night from all of us here. Good evening, it will be chilly in | :46:57. | :47:25. | |
the morning with a few patches of mist and fog, the fog should lift | :47:26. | :47:29. | |
pretty quickly through the morning and then we are into a decent day | :47:30. | :47:31. | |
with light | :47:32. | :47:33. |