Browse content similar to 13/01/2016. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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Is Europe in the midst of an anti-refugee backlash, | :00:00. | :00:00. | |
as Denmark, part of liberal Scandinavia, | :00:07. | :00:09. | |
We think that it is fair, that they should pay for their stay in | :00:10. | :00:26. | |
Denmark. Why should taxpayers pay for the period of time that they are | :00:27. | :00:28. | |
living in Denmark? Refugees and migrants | :00:29. | :00:30. | |
are a big issue for Europe - Labour's leading In campaigner, | :00:31. | :00:32. | |
Alan Johnson, gives his reaction. And Labour's internecine | :00:33. | :00:40. | |
war over Trident, will their defence review pour cold | :00:41. | :00:42. | |
water on it or more petrol? The co-chair of the review tells | :00:43. | :00:49. | |
Newsnight we'll soon We will desperately try to do it | :00:50. | :00:51. | |
as rapidly as possible, so we will focus on the Trident | :00:52. | :00:57. | |
issue ahead of the rest And that could be | :00:58. | :00:57. | |
done within months, Also tonight - a bleak time | :00:58. | :01:00. | |
for the black stuff. And Airbnb, the website | :01:01. | :01:15. | |
where you can rent, or rent out Is the so-called sharing | :01:16. | :01:20. | |
economy the future or just Watch out for a surfeit of headlines | :01:21. | :01:27. | |
using the phrase "something is rotten in the state of Denmark" | :01:28. | :01:43. | |
or variants thereon. Because Denmark is set to move ahead | :01:44. | :01:47. | |
with a package of measures to deter asylum seekers from | :01:48. | :01:50. | |
trying to settle there. Expropriating their assets to make | :01:51. | :01:55. | |
them pay for their stay - not a wedding ring or items | :01:56. | :01:58. | |
with sentimental value, but cash or possessions worth | :01:59. | :02:00. | |
more than about ?1,000. Delaying the point at which families | :02:01. | :02:02. | |
can join mothers or fathers. The United Nations ranks Denmark | :02:03. | :02:07. | |
as the fourth most developed country in the world, but the UN | :02:08. | :02:10. | |
High Commissioner for Refugees called the measures "deeply | :02:11. | :02:12. | |
concerning", and an affront Well, this latest Danish response | :02:13. | :02:14. | |
to the flow of people into Europe is part of what looks | :02:15. | :02:21. | |
like a backlash at the liberal values that have enticed people | :02:22. | :02:24. | |
to this continent. Katie Razzall reports from | :02:25. | :02:26. | |
Copenhagen. What do you take with you when you | :02:27. | :02:49. | |
leave your home and travel thousands of miles by boat, by bus, on foot? | :02:50. | :02:58. | |
Is it those sentimental possessions that remind you of the life you once | :02:59. | :03:04. | |
had? Or valuables, to sustain you on the journey? This Iraqi family told | :03:05. | :03:08. | |
me they had left Baghdad for Copenhagen with a few clothes and | :03:09. | :03:10. | |
some money, which quickly disappeared. TRANSLATION: We only | :03:11. | :03:13. | |
brought the essentials, nothing really valuable. We paid all the | :03:14. | :03:17. | |
money we had to the smugglers to bring us here. There was anger today | :03:18. | :03:22. | |
outside the Danish parliament as, insight, politicians debated and new | :03:23. | :03:27. | |
Immigration Bill. In future, rivals to this country will be searched, | :03:28. | :03:31. | |
and assets like money worth more than 10,000 kroner or ?1000, and any | :03:32. | :03:36. | |
valuables, although not wedding rings or mobile phones, will be | :03:37. | :03:41. | |
compensated -- confiscated to reimburse the taxpayer for the cost | :03:42. | :03:44. | |
of looking after them. We are looking to limit the flow of | :03:45. | :03:47. | |
refugees coming into Denmark and those who are coming into Denmark, | :03:48. | :03:51. | |
we think it is fair that they should pay for their stay. Why should the | :03:52. | :03:56. | |
taxpayers pay for a period of time that they are living in Denmark? We | :03:57. | :04:01. | |
think it is quite fair. I actually do not understand why there has been | :04:02. | :04:05. | |
such a big debate about this. It is just common sense. Unlike Sweden, | :04:06. | :04:10. | |
Denmark has been tightening up its laws on migrants for some time. But | :04:11. | :04:14. | |
there has been nothing quite as controversial as the plan to strip | :04:15. | :04:18. | |
them of their valuables. The Prime Minister, keen to protect his | :04:19. | :04:22. | |
country's reputation as a just and fair society, says this is the most | :04:23. | :04:26. | |
misunderstood bill in Danish history. With Europe floundering | :04:27. | :04:31. | |
over how to deal with the migrant crisis, will other countries | :04:32. | :04:37. | |
introduce similar measures? Last summer, in the wake of the death of | :04:38. | :04:41. | |
the boy washed up on a Turkish beach, Europe felt like a much more | :04:42. | :04:45. | |
friendly place for migrants. Germans welcomed them with flowers and food | :04:46. | :04:50. | |
and the strangers into their homes. Back then, hardliners who floated | :04:51. | :04:56. | |
concerns about integration, were castigated for their pitiless nests. | :04:57. | :04:59. | |
But now the mood is hardening as fears about crime and community | :05:00. | :05:04. | |
discord grow and Europe is putting up fences in an effort to shut | :05:05. | :05:09. | |
people out. Across Europe, there has been a race to the bottom as states | :05:10. | :05:15. | |
have been trying to outbid each other on creating restrictive | :05:16. | :05:18. | |
policies to make asylum seekers seek asylum in neighbouring states rather | :05:19. | :05:22. | |
than their own. Denmark has been part of that and I think this | :05:23. | :05:28. | |
current bill is part of the politics of deterrence, whereby the Danish | :05:29. | :05:33. | |
state is actively cultivating a new image as being unwelcoming to | :05:34. | :05:38. | |
refugees. Last June, here in Denmark, they had a change of | :05:39. | :05:42. | |
political leadership. If you have watched an episode of Borgen, you | :05:43. | :05:49. | |
will know that compromise is everything in Danish politics. If | :05:50. | :05:53. | |
this was an episode of Borgen, in the end, Liberal values would | :05:54. | :05:57. | |
triumph. But right now, in reality, it is the right setting the agenda. | :05:58. | :06:04. | |
That has meant cut in -- tough changes, including cuts to migrant | :06:05. | :06:08. | |
benefits of up to 50% and new Danish language requirements before | :06:09. | :06:09. | |
permanent residency is offered. Migrants already can't | :06:10. | :06:12. | |
bring family over for The government wants | :06:13. | :06:13. | |
that up three years. And shorter residency statuses | :06:14. | :06:16. | |
being given to those The Prime Minister recently even | :06:17. | :06:18. | |
called for reform to the UN 1951 20,000 migrants like these came to | :06:19. | :06:29. | |
Denmark last year. They are awaiting news on their status in a country | :06:30. | :06:33. | |
whose leadership apparently wishes they had never arrived. What does | :06:34. | :06:36. | |
this family think of the planned to take away people's assets? | :06:37. | :06:40. | |
TRANSLATION: Of course it is not a good thing, I don't like it. For | :06:41. | :06:45. | |
people like us who left Baghdad or those who travelled from Syria, they | :06:46. | :06:48. | |
lost their houses and money. It is hard for them to lose whatever | :06:49. | :06:53. | |
remains. They already lost jobs, houses and maybe relatives in the | :06:54. | :07:01. | |
war. It will be hard to take what they have. They will have nothing of | :07:02. | :07:04. | |
value left. The Immigration Bill will be voted on later this month. | :07:05. | :07:06. | |
But the government says it has the backing of enough parties to get it | :07:07. | :07:10. | |
through. Watching closely will be other European nations with an eye | :07:11. | :07:12. | |
on opinion polls at home. Out of all this arises one | :07:13. | :07:14. | |
overarching long-term question for Europe, | :07:15. | :07:17. | |
and a short-term tactical The short-term one is | :07:18. | :07:19. | |
whether the recent turn of events in the refugee and migration debate | :07:20. | :07:24. | |
will affect Britain's EU referendum To put it bluntly, will it | :07:25. | :07:27. | |
derail the In campaign? The bigger question | :07:28. | :07:34. | |
is whether migration will challenge what we like to regard as European | :07:35. | :07:36. | |
tolerance and openness. One man who should be reflecting | :07:37. | :07:39. | |
on both these is the former He was in government at a time | :07:40. | :07:42. | |
when migration into the UK was high, and he is now in charge | :07:43. | :07:46. | |
of Labour's pro-EU campaign. My first question, is the recent | :07:47. | :08:01. | |
refugee crisis in Germany and Sweden going to damage the campaign? It | :08:02. | :08:07. | |
could damage it, but if you use that as the answer, you will come out of | :08:08. | :08:10. | |
the European Union. You might as well come out of the United Nations. | :08:11. | :08:15. | |
It is an issue for them as well, big movements across the world. | :08:16. | :08:19. | |
Withdrawing from these organisations will march the lack solve it. -- | :08:20. | :08:24. | |
will not solve it. We are in the best position, we are not part of | :08:25. | :08:27. | |
the Schengen Agreement but we are part of the Dublin accord. People | :08:28. | :08:31. | |
coming from outside the European Union, they will need to register in | :08:32. | :08:35. | |
the first country they come to. If we are outside the European Union, | :08:36. | :08:41. | |
that would not be the case. But we are part of Schengen, so you need a | :08:42. | :08:45. | |
visa. It will make things worse. Incidentally, our most vulnerable | :08:46. | :08:49. | |
point, Calais to Dover, because we are part of the UN we have good | :08:50. | :08:53. | |
relationships with France, we have a border control in Calais. The first | :08:54. | :08:57. | |
thing that will happen if we take back our borders, France would take | :08:58. | :09:01. | |
back its border and our most vulnerable point in these islands | :09:02. | :09:05. | |
would be more vulnerable still. I would make the argument that we will | :09:06. | :09:09. | |
be worse off outside. You acknowledge it might be an issue | :09:10. | :09:12. | |
that damages the campaign? It happened over the summer. The number | :09:13. | :09:16. | |
of people in terms of appalling that work pro-EU reduced over the summer | :09:17. | :09:23. | |
when they sought that kind of footage. -- in terms of the polling | :09:24. | :09:30. | |
that were pro-EU. But when you get down to the real campaigning, it | :09:31. | :09:34. | |
means talking about the facts. The public will think of migration and | :09:35. | :09:38. | |
refugees as intertwined issues. They will think we have many people | :09:39. | :09:41. | |
coming in from the continent of Europe and we do not have control of | :09:42. | :09:44. | |
our border with the continent, because anyone with a passport can | :09:45. | :09:50. | |
come to Britain. Now what is your lying going to be, through the | :09:51. | :09:54. | |
campaign, through the referendum, to most people, who would say, if we're | :09:55. | :09:59. | |
not in the EU, we get more control over who comes to our country? You | :10:00. | :10:03. | |
are going to have to have an answer to that. Yes, and the answer is that | :10:04. | :10:09. | |
that would not happen on any of the models that the campaign are looking | :10:10. | :10:13. | |
at. You would not have control of the border if you left? Because the | :10:14. | :10:17. | |
Germans or the Swedes or citizens of Italy... If we did have that, we | :10:18. | :10:21. | |
would have an economy that was plummeting and we would be in a | :10:22. | :10:24. | |
sorry state, because if we apply those measures, they were bright | :10:25. | :10:29. | |
apply those measures as well. Britain has more people living | :10:30. | :10:31. | |
abroad, working in developed countries, than any in Europe, | :10:32. | :10:36. | |
including Poland. It is a two-way street. All the models that say you | :10:37. | :10:42. | |
are outside Europe but you take advantage of the biggest commercial | :10:43. | :10:44. | |
market in the world, bigger than the US or China, involve free movement. | :10:45. | :10:51. | |
Can I ask you, are you in favour of free movement, basically? Suppose | :10:52. | :10:54. | |
that Europeans came to us and said we could doubt. I am in favour of | :10:55. | :11:00. | |
it. Do you think the public like it? I think the public would see the | :11:01. | :11:06. | |
benefit, that you cannot have this... Children in particular, | :11:07. | :11:10. | |
teenagers, youngsters, they happily cross borders without even thinking | :11:11. | :11:14. | |
about it. Families go on holiday to Spain and they do not need a visa. | :11:15. | :11:19. | |
When you look at the practicalities of moving away from free movement, | :11:20. | :11:24. | |
then you go back in time to a world that did not exist in terms of this | :11:25. | :11:30. | |
nirvana of the 50s. You go back to a less tolerant world, a world that is | :11:31. | :11:33. | |
less prosperous and a Britain that is less able to punch its way | :11:34. | :11:41. | |
through the world. I wonder, is a sense out there that government, | :11:42. | :11:45. | |
people in authority, have pulled the wool over the public's ice? They | :11:46. | :11:49. | |
feel that in Germany and Sweden where the police are scared to talk | :11:50. | :11:53. | |
about migrant crime. Frankly, they feel it was something that the | :11:54. | :11:56. | |
Labour government did with migration and they never really said they were | :11:57. | :12:00. | |
going to let a million Polish people into the country but many more | :12:01. | :12:03. | |
people came into the country than the public expected. There is this | :12:04. | :12:11. | |
sense of the EU being a slightly elite project which has moved away | :12:12. | :12:16. | |
from what the public were told it was about, and not necessarily what | :12:17. | :12:20. | |
they wanted to be about. I think as you get into the debate on the | :12:21. | :12:26. | |
referendum, the unavoidable question, are we staying or are we | :12:27. | :12:30. | |
going, I think we will concentrate on these misconceptions. We will | :12:31. | :12:33. | |
make the argument for Europe which has not been made on the left for | :12:34. | :12:36. | |
ten years. I am leading a united campaign on this. The Labour Party | :12:37. | :12:41. | |
has changed since 1975 but I think we also have exposed the thing, what | :12:42. | :12:46. | |
did we vote for in 1975? I was there and I delivered the leaflets for the | :12:47. | :12:52. | |
yes campaign. Looking at that again, it was about the European economic | :12:53. | :12:56. | |
community, about closer political union, it was the idea of setting up | :12:57. | :13:00. | |
a European Parliament. All this stuff of saying we voted just for | :13:01. | :13:04. | |
the common market, it is not true, and there are lots of things wrong | :13:05. | :13:07. | |
with Europe and lots of things wrong with the United Nations. There is | :13:08. | :13:11. | |
not a perfect institution but in a sense, are we better being part of | :13:12. | :13:16. | |
our continent? Through this forum, the forum through which we can | :13:17. | :13:21. | |
handle our independence? The answer must be yes on every kind of level. | :13:22. | :13:25. | |
Are you saying that when the public voted yes to the common market in | :13:26. | :13:31. | |
1975 they could have anticipated all of the things that could have | :13:32. | :13:35. | |
followed? They might be scared of voting yes in 2016 if they think | :13:36. | :13:40. | |
there will be that much happening thereafter. The arguments to people | :13:41. | :13:44. | |
who were not around at the time, including Nigel Farage, because I do | :13:45. | :13:47. | |
not think he was old enough to vote, is that we have just voted for a | :13:48. | :13:51. | |
market. Now, you didn't. If you look back, you can research it. There was | :13:52. | :13:58. | |
no pulling the wool over the eyes? Far from it. The yes campaign was | :13:59. | :14:03. | |
very straightforward. For example, we said it would not solve our | :14:04. | :14:07. | |
economic problems, it would not resolve our prosperity but it was | :14:08. | :14:10. | |
part of something bigger and increasingly interdependent. The no | :14:11. | :14:15. | |
campaign, they said that if you stayed in, it would be part of a | :14:16. | :14:19. | |
country called Europe, there would be no Italy or Germany. Read it. | :14:20. | :14:25. | |
That fantasy of one country, as if the Germans or the Italians would | :14:26. | :14:29. | |
want to be part of that country. But it is dead. Have you told them it is | :14:30. | :14:34. | |
dead?! Cameron made the point in Parliament, the other day, that | :14:35. | :14:42. | |
there is a great deal... Europe, when necessary, nation states | :14:43. | :14:45. | |
usually deal with these issues. But give me, in a sentence, the | :14:46. | :14:50. | |
emotional pitch. Give me the positive vision for being in the EU? | :14:51. | :14:56. | |
It is that the European Union was created after world wars on our | :14:57. | :14:59. | |
continent that started every 20 years. In 1975, the guys in the post | :15:00. | :15:04. | |
office were people who had fought in those wars. They had seen very much, | :15:05. | :15:13. | |
as Churchill put it, ... I wonder whether you think that is still | :15:14. | :15:17. | |
something that works? We're not going to war with Germany, in or out | :15:18. | :15:23. | |
of the EU. Might it need updated. It is out of date. It is useful to | :15:24. | :15:28. | |
remind people. When we debated this in 1975, Franco was in power in | :15:29. | :15:33. | |
Spain. The whole block of eastern Europe was under totalitarian rule. | :15:34. | :15:38. | |
They have moved from oligarchy to democracy without a shot being | :15:39. | :15:41. | |
fired, that is part of the poetry of working together on this continent. | :15:42. | :15:47. | |
The prose, it is trade. The market, nobody loves a market but as you | :15:48. | :15:52. | |
know, this is a crucial part of our prosperity. I'm going to say to you | :15:53. | :15:56. | |
that the pros are as important as the poetry. And that suggests that | :15:57. | :16:02. | |
walking off into isolation means walking off into isolation in the | :16:03. | :16:07. | |
world. I am interested in whether you buy into David Cameron's | :16:08. | :16:11. | |
renegotiation attempt. He has obviously set out his agenda. You'll | :16:12. | :16:15. | |
like what he is trying to do or is your lover for the EU on | :16:16. | :16:20. | |
conditional? -- do you like what he is trying to do. It is not love. I | :16:21. | :16:25. | |
am not a fanatic but I think that most of the British public, I hope, | :16:26. | :16:30. | |
on balance, think that it is better that we are in the European Union. I | :16:31. | :16:34. | |
think it is a sideshow and it is more about the future of the | :16:35. | :16:36. | |
Conservative Party than the future of the country but as I want us to | :16:37. | :16:40. | |
stay in the EU, I wanted to do enough to allow him to come and fly | :16:41. | :16:46. | |
the flag for Europe. Do you think it is a bit of a sham? I think so. The | :16:47. | :16:51. | |
other thing is the referendum will not be on that package, it will be, | :16:52. | :16:56. | |
do you want to stay or do you want to go. Trident is looming as an | :16:57. | :17:00. | |
issue and it looks fraught. Will it damage the party if they chose to | :17:01. | :17:05. | |
reject Trident? I hope not. I hope it shows that we have | :17:06. | :17:06. | |
reject Trident? I hope not. I hope debate, like what is going on in the | :17:07. | :17:11. | |
country, and we have come down, after having deliberated on this, | :17:12. | :17:15. | |
one way or the other. One thing is for sure, we cannot have to | :17:16. | :17:20. | |
different positions. And your position? I am pro Trident. I am pro | :17:21. | :17:25. | |
nuclear disarmament through multilateral disarmament. Everyone | :17:26. | :17:31. | |
is looking for that. Do you have any regrets about not standing in that | :17:32. | :17:35. | |
leadership election? A lot of people, they were saying just the | :17:36. | :17:40. | |
other day, you were the only one that could potentially have beaten | :17:41. | :17:44. | |
Jeremy Corbyn. I wonder, giving you are on a different wing of the | :17:45. | :17:48. | |
party, if you look back and think, why did I not do it, I could have | :17:49. | :17:52. | |
taken him on? I wonder how many times more I have to say this. I | :17:53. | :17:56. | |
never wanted to be leader. I did not have the for that. I am pleased that | :17:57. | :18:00. | |
there are people who want to do their job. I do not want to do it | :18:01. | :18:06. | |
and I never have done, and I never would've done. Denis Healey felt | :18:07. | :18:10. | |
that he had let the movement down because he did not fight hard enough | :18:11. | :18:14. | |
to beat Michael Foot. You do not feel the same? Dennis had our rate | :18:15. | :18:21. | |
phrase, he felt he was the best predator we never had. Then why the | :18:22. | :18:26. | |
hell was he not party leader? Sometimes people put it to me, but | :18:27. | :18:29. | |
it is my life and I will lead it my way. Thank you. | :18:30. | :18:36. | |
On the Europe subject, the Telegraph tomorrow carries a piece by Chris | :18:37. | :18:43. | |
Grayling who calls for British membership of the EU on current | :18:44. | :18:50. | |
terms disastrous. He also says he supports renegotiation, so maybe | :18:51. | :18:53. | |
staying in the Cabinet rules about what you are or are not allowed to | :18:54. | :18:57. | |
say about the EU at the moment. We should be talking about George | :18:58. | :18:58. | |
Osborne about Europe tomorrow night. Now, you heard Alan Johnson talking | :18:59. | :19:02. | |
about Trident there. A vote is coming up | :19:03. | :19:04. | |
on replacing it this year, Labour is in a strange place - | :19:05. | :19:06. | |
the party policy says yes to replacing Trident, | :19:07. | :19:10. | |
the leader says no to it, and there is a review designed | :19:11. | :19:12. | |
to sort out the gap. It's exactly 30 years | :19:13. | :19:15. | |
since Margaret Thatcher laid the keel for HMS Vanguard, | :19:16. | :19:25. | |
a new generation of Trident In all that time, Jeremy Corbyn has | :19:26. | :19:27. | |
been active in the campaign He is committed to Britain | :19:28. | :19:35. | |
giving up nuclear weapons. I am opposed to the holding | :19:36. | :19:40. | |
and the usage of nuclear weapons. They are an ultimate weapon of mass | :19:41. | :19:43. | |
destruction that can only kill In changing Labour's policy, | :19:44. | :19:46. | |
though, Jeremy Corbyn has two big enemies - | :19:47. | :19:52. | |
time and votes. The only way to change that policy | :19:53. | :19:58. | |
is through a vote at the party's annual conference, but that doesn't | :19:59. | :20:11. | |
happen until the end of September,. Well before that, Parliament | :20:12. | :20:13. | |
could have decided the issue Sources inside the MoD have told me | :20:14. | :20:15. | |
that that maingate vote could come It will certainly happen, | :20:16. | :20:23. | |
I've been told, before Parliament In other words, long before Labour | :20:24. | :20:31. | |
can change its policy officially. John Woodcock is a Labour MP | :20:32. | :20:36. | |
committed to securing Trident's renewal, not least because the four | :20:37. | :20:39. | |
new subs would be built Let's focus on something | :20:40. | :20:41. | |
where we can make a difference for the people who desperately need | :20:42. | :20:48. | |
Labour to be a credible opposition rather than spending time tearing | :20:49. | :20:52. | |
ourselves apart as a party for something which is | :20:53. | :20:55. | |
going to happen anyway. There is a cast-iron majority | :20:56. | :21:00. | |
in Parliament for this project go past the point of no return, | :21:01. | :21:03. | |
so no matter what Jeremy does or even if he were to magic | :21:04. | :21:08. | |
up a changed policy, which he won't, it is not go to make | :21:09. | :21:11. | |
a difference to the fact that these The next problem that Jeremy Corbyn | :21:12. | :21:15. | |
has to deal with is votes. 50% of the votes at conference | :21:16. | :21:20. | |
needed to change the policy come There are reports that | :21:21. | :21:28. | |
Len McCluskey, general secretary of the largest union, | :21:29. | :21:32. | |
Unite, will make a speech this weekend hardening his position | :21:33. | :21:35. | |
against the policy change. If he does that, it will add his | :21:36. | :21:37. | |
voice to that of Paul Kenny If anybody thinks that unions | :21:38. | :21:40. | |
like the GMB are going to go quietly into the night while tens | :21:41. | :21:51. | |
of thousands of our members' jobs are literally swanneed way | :21:52. | :21:53. | |
by rhetoric, then they have got But Jeremy Corbyn says he wants | :21:54. | :21:56. | |
to explore new ways for Labour to make policy, perhaps involving | :21:57. | :21:59. | |
online votes of the party's members. That idea, though, was slapped down | :22:00. | :22:02. | |
pretty emphatically this week by Ian McNicol, | :22:03. | :22:04. | |
Labour's general secretary, Nevertheless, an online vote | :22:05. | :22:06. | |
could be used to put pressure on Labour MPs and even shadow | :22:07. | :22:16. | |
ministers to move in the direction What could also add to the pressure | :22:17. | :22:18. | |
is Labour's defence review, originally to be chaired | :22:19. | :22:24. | |
by Ken Livingstone, who opposes Trident, | :22:25. | :22:26. | |
and the then Shadow Defence Secretary, Maria Eagle, | :22:27. | :22:29. | |
who is in favour. But last week, she was replaced | :22:30. | :22:33. | |
by Emily Thornbury, who also opposes Ken Livingstone told me that they | :22:34. | :22:35. | |
aim to have a recommendation We will desperately try and do it | :22:36. | :22:40. | |
as rapidly as possible, so we will focus on the Trident | :22:41. | :22:47. | |
issue ahead of the rest And that could be done | :22:48. | :22:50. | |
within months, couple of months? With a bit of luck, that could be | :22:51. | :22:55. | |
done in eight to ten weeks, it will take a lot of work for me | :22:56. | :23:07. | |
and Emily, but that's good. The timetable won't reassure some | :23:08. | :23:10. | |
Labour MPs, who suspect that the review has been set up to | :23:11. | :23:12. | |
come to a predetermined conclusion. If you are Venezuela, | :23:13. | :23:15. | |
Saudi Arabia or BP, the year has Something extraordinary has been | :23:16. | :23:20. | |
happening to the oil price - it's been tumbling to levels | :23:21. | :23:23. | |
no-one thought we'd see. Brent Crude dropped below $30 | :23:24. | :23:26. | |
a barrel for the first time BP has in fact announced job cuts | :23:27. | :23:28. | |
in its North Sea activities. The Chancellor referred | :23:29. | :23:36. | |
to a cocktail of risks in the world Some think cheap oil | :23:37. | :23:38. | |
is one ingredient, Others think it's going | :23:39. | :23:41. | |
to ameliorate the worst. It's interesting that for all its | :23:42. | :24:04. | |
importance in our lives, we don't very often get to see large amounts | :24:05. | :24:21. | |
of oil, to stand in awe at its power, to smell it. You have to | :24:22. | :24:30. | |
remember the world divides into oil haves and have-nots. The best way to | :24:31. | :24:35. | |
look at the change in price is to think of it is a big hand-out from | :24:36. | :24:39. | |
one group to another. The oil price goes up more I am worse off, Saudi | :24:40. | :24:44. | |
Arabia wins, and when prices go down, as they have, it is the other | :24:45. | :24:50. | |
way round full the oil industry and oil exporting countries have gotten | :24:51. | :24:55. | |
very used to $100 oil, and just assumed that $100 oil was going to | :24:56. | :25:00. | |
be the normal price forever. Wrong assumption! Here is the price of oil | :25:01. | :25:05. | |
in 2015. It is now half what it was last summer. On a longer view, back | :25:06. | :25:10. | |
45 years, you can see the recent swing is one of the big shift of the | :25:11. | :25:16. | |
modern era. Right now, there is simply too much oil. And you can see | :25:17. | :25:20. | |
it if you go to a place like Singapore. I was there recently and | :25:21. | :25:24. | |
you can see all the tankers sitting there doing not much, just simply | :25:25. | :25:30. | |
storing oil. When you have $90 oil, people were combing the world for | :25:31. | :25:36. | |
primary sources of hydrocarbon where there were plenty of different areas | :25:37. | :25:39. | |
which were being developed. And all of them have different financial | :25:40. | :25:44. | |
characteristics, and some of them will not survive at these low prices | :25:45. | :25:49. | |
if they continue, as I expect they will continue. | :25:50. | :25:55. | |
You see, new oil came on tap like US shale. Edward Gold prices, but | :25:56. | :26:05. | |
paradoxically, all that new oil drove prices down, killing its own | :26:06. | :26:13. | |
business model. And that is cause of concern over one. Those that lead or | :26:14. | :26:19. | |
invested find they are kind of where sub-prime lenders were a decade | :26:20. | :26:23. | |
back. We have seen a huge bubble within the oil market in terms of | :26:24. | :26:30. | |
bumps, 18% of bond assurance in the US is oil related. We are now seeing | :26:31. | :26:34. | |
significant problems within that market. I think you have seen a lot | :26:35. | :26:39. | |
of the big operators who have locked in the oil price for most of next | :26:40. | :26:45. | |
year, so they are still at $60 plus when the current spot price is in | :26:46. | :26:48. | |
the 30s, so they haven't run into problems yet. Clearly the issue is | :26:49. | :26:53. | |
if the price remains in the 30s and that locking expires, and you have | :26:54. | :26:57. | |
to sell at the spot rate rather than $60, that is where you see more | :26:58. | :27:01. | |
financial distress. From the oil sector to the problems | :27:02. | :27:05. | |
of the financial sector. There are other grounds for worry, too. You | :27:06. | :27:10. | |
can't separate what is happening with oil prices by themselves from | :27:11. | :27:14. | |
other things that are happening in the world economy. So, to some | :27:15. | :27:19. | |
degree, oil prices today are also a thermometer telling us there is a | :27:20. | :27:22. | |
lot of weakness in the world economy, so we will see a cycle, but | :27:23. | :27:27. | |
right now, the name of the game is survival. | :27:28. | :27:35. | |
# Riding along in my automobile... But forget the losers, who needs | :27:36. | :27:39. | |
losers? There are winners in the oil market, too. Right from the earliest | :27:40. | :27:46. | |
days of our oil fuelled economy, some fundamental rules have applied | :27:47. | :27:50. | |
telling us that cheap oil is good for growth. It is just a vintage | :27:51. | :27:53. | |
economics. As you know, oil powered automobiles | :27:54. | :28:02. | |
have caught on, and we can do a back of the envelope calculation as to | :28:03. | :28:07. | |
the benefit of an oil price cut. So today, we pump something like 20 | :28:08. | :28:13. | |
million tonnes, 20 billion litres, of petrol and diesel into our cars. | :28:14. | :28:18. | |
If you cut the price by 15p, that is ?3 billion into the pockets of | :28:19. | :28:23. | |
consumers. Better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick. And also | :28:24. | :28:28. | |
supports the economy more generally by creating lower energy costs for | :28:29. | :28:32. | |
businesses, that gives more space for investment and for overall | :28:33. | :28:35. | |
employment in the UK. I think the ready reckoner that we had in our | :28:36. | :28:40. | |
mind is when oil prices fell from over $100 back in the summer 18 | :28:41. | :28:49. | |
months ago to $50 that that gave a boost to the UK economy of around | :28:50. | :28:57. | |
0.5% to GDP. Oil isn't what it was in the 50s. Al post-industrial | :28:58. | :29:00. | |
economy is less oil intensive than it was. Old ready reckoner is may | :29:01. | :29:06. | |
have weakened. But all in all, while there is a lot to worry about at the | :29:07. | :29:13. | |
moment, cheap oil probably gets two Cheers. Two, not three. | :29:14. | :29:19. | |
Just worry about nations that are so dependent on revenues from oil that | :29:20. | :29:24. | |
there may be some unexpected instability. And it usually is | :29:25. | :29:28. | |
unexpected. So it is not all good news, but on | :29:29. | :29:32. | |
balance, I would say it is good news for the consumer, not so good news | :29:33. | :29:36. | |
if you are in the oil and gas business. | :29:37. | :29:38. | |
And I should say thank you to the Brooklands Museum | :29:39. | :29:41. | |
in Weybridge for the loan of that old Ford motor and the use | :29:42. | :29:44. | |
That was a very evenhanded account of it. | :29:45. | :29:50. | |
Joining me now are Sir Alan Duncan, Conservative MP and former Minister | :29:51. | :29:53. | |
for International Development, and Gillian Tett, US Managing Editor | :29:54. | :29:56. | |
Good evening to you both. You can see at glass half full is empty. | :29:57. | :30:07. | |
Which is it? You will sound like a classic Scrooge if you say it is | :30:08. | :30:11. | |
half ten T. The reality is it is great for consumers driving cars, | :30:12. | :30:14. | |
but if this oil price fall has occurred just across the cars were | :30:15. | :30:17. | |
becoming so efficient they didn't need oil so much any more, because | :30:18. | :30:21. | |
suddenly people have found a whole lot more oil, that would be good. | :30:22. | :30:26. | |
The problem is that this oil price fall is partly because of sheer | :30:27. | :30:29. | |
political tension and rivalry between Saudi Arabia and the US, but | :30:30. | :30:32. | |
also because demand is falling in places like China, and that is | :30:33. | :30:42. | |
worrying. And you say that it is to do with the geopolitical thinking? | :30:43. | :30:48. | |
It does appear that one factor driving policy is the fact that Opec | :30:49. | :30:53. | |
has been unravelling, but also that some Saudi leaders are trying to | :30:54. | :30:58. | |
undermine the US shale industry. But it is extraordinary. Yes, we are | :30:59. | :31:07. | |
back to $30 oil, which is where I came in water years ago. The issue | :31:08. | :31:13. | |
is this. We all love low prices at the pump. But what we have seen over | :31:14. | :31:18. | |
the last year is extraordinary volatility, and that volatility, | :31:19. | :31:21. | |
going down from over 100 to about 30 unleashes massive forces when money | :31:22. | :31:25. | |
moves across the globe and has consequences, and I think the sort | :31:26. | :31:29. | |
of consequences we can see at the immediate effects of the oil | :31:30. | :31:33. | |
services sector losing jobs, and of course the North Sea is suffering, | :31:34. | :31:38. | |
and that will hurt us as the UK. We are seeing a lot of oil producing | :31:39. | :31:43. | |
countries needing some thing like $80 oil to pay their way, so if they | :31:44. | :31:47. | |
have financial deficits, they will have to Saky no enormous amount of | :31:48. | :31:51. | |
money by liquidating assets or borrowing, and you then end up with | :31:52. | :31:53. | |
a liquidity squeeze which could but up interest rates, and so we will | :31:54. | :31:59. | |
also, as Julian Cuesta rightly says, look we looking at geopolitical | :32:00. | :32:01. | |
pressures in oil producing countries. These are massive forces. | :32:02. | :32:08. | |
If there was ever a moment you don't want geopolitical pressures, it is | :32:09. | :32:13. | |
right now. We have a story at the FT saying that BP is slashing jobs, | :32:14. | :32:18. | |
4000 jobs, a big hit on North Sea oil, all these kinds of jobs. You | :32:19. | :32:22. | |
are seeing a number of emerging market and countries which are big | :32:23. | :32:26. | |
oil producers having a squeeze right now which frankly the world doesn't | :32:27. | :32:30. | |
need in terms of instability. It is right to think essentially if | :32:31. | :32:33. | |
you are involved in oil, this is clearly awful. Should people who are | :32:34. | :32:39. | |
not involved in oil, who don't own BP and don't work in the oil | :32:40. | :32:43. | |
industry, but you can buy petrol at ?1 per litre, should they, it you | :32:44. | :32:53. | |
called it potentially catastrophic in the Commons today, and you ask | :32:54. | :32:58. | |
the question of the Prime Minister on it. Is it simply a problem for | :32:59. | :33:03. | |
people in the oil industry? No, it isn't, because there is a volatility | :33:04. | :33:08. | |
and instability. There is global instability politically in the | :33:09. | :33:13. | |
Middle East, but you put that to one side, if you are a pensioner, it is | :33:14. | :33:17. | |
impossible to exaggerate the number of pension funds that rely heavily | :33:18. | :33:29. | |
on'S dividends -- rely heavily on the shell's dividends for their | :33:30. | :33:34. | |
pension pot. I want people to be able to fill their back after less | :33:35. | :33:38. | |
than ?1 per litre, but other things with that good news. I wouldn't be | :33:39. | :33:42. | |
quite so gloomy. Other studies have been done in the US which are | :33:43. | :33:50. | |
countries that are far more dependent on petrol than the UK, and | :33:51. | :33:54. | |
they were saying families are saving $700 per year. And that is good. But | :33:55. | :33:58. | |
the interesting thing is, when you look at whether on not the consumer | :33:59. | :34:02. | |
is spending that windfall, it looks like only about half of it is being | :34:03. | :34:05. | |
spent, because people are still pretty scarred by the whole 2008 | :34:06. | :34:10. | |
financial crisis, so if you look at the overall economic boost, you are | :34:11. | :34:14. | |
probably not going to see the simple sums, what they suggest. Suppose we | :34:15. | :34:19. | |
found a big hole in the North Pole, and out of it just came as much oil | :34:20. | :34:22. | |
as we possibly needed, put aside concerns about the planet, because | :34:23. | :34:28. | |
we haven't talked about those. If we could all have free oil in unlimited | :34:29. | :34:31. | |
quantities, would you tell me that is bad news that the economics of | :34:32. | :34:35. | |
the world, or would you say, thank goodness, we don't have to worry | :34:36. | :34:39. | |
about energy any more. It is a wonderful hypothetical question. In | :34:40. | :34:43. | |
the long-term, cheap energy is a good thing, although in terms of | :34:44. | :34:52. | |
green... Let's say it's green oil! It would dramatically change in | :34:53. | :34:57. | |
historic ways the balance of power, wealth and everything else across | :34:58. | :35:00. | |
the world. It would be the end of the Middle East in terms of their | :35:01. | :35:03. | |
wealth, of course. You can write a book about this, I am sure. It would | :35:04. | :35:10. | |
be a big deal, anyway. Thank you both very much. Sorry, we have to | :35:11. | :35:11. | |
leave it there. Oil is not the only sector that's | :35:12. | :35:14. | |
been having a hard time. Hotels have been complaining | :35:15. | :35:17. | |
that they face unfair competition It's the web service that allows | :35:18. | :35:19. | |
ordinary people to take on Holiday Inn by renting | :35:20. | :35:23. | |
out their spare rooms to strangers. Or in some cases, as the hotels | :35:24. | :35:26. | |
point out, their spare What's clear is that | :35:27. | :35:30. | |
Airbnb is catching on. After hosting hundreds of guests, I | :35:31. | :35:44. | |
realised how I am connected to these different people who belong from | :35:45. | :35:47. | |
different cultures, different countries and different backgrounds. | :35:48. | :35:52. | |
Being an Airbnb host is being part of a global community. It gave me a | :35:53. | :35:58. | |
faith in humanity, to be honest. They come as guests but they leave | :35:59. | :36:02. | |
as friends. That experience is much more enriching. Imagine today that | :36:03. | :36:07. | |
it is possible for all of us to experience that. | :36:08. | :36:09. | |
Now hotels say it's unfair competiion. | :36:10. | :36:10. | |
They meet certain pernickety rules and regulations - | :36:11. | :36:12. | |
like paying tax - that not all their rivals necessarily feel | :36:13. | :36:15. | |
Today the RSA, the Royal Society of the Arts, published a report | :36:16. | :36:19. | |
arguing that platforms like Airbnb help us take advantage | :36:20. | :36:21. | |
of our underused resources and they extend access. | :36:22. | :36:26. | |
We asked Airbnb to join us, but they are busy tonight. | :36:27. | :36:31. | |
But with me is author of that report, Brhmie Balaram, | :36:32. | :36:34. | |
and from the British Hospitality Association, | :36:35. | :36:35. | |
Good evening. Brhmie Balaram, Tony Abbott about the sharing economy and | :36:36. | :36:49. | |
why you are an enthusiastic that? The report today said that the | :36:50. | :36:52. | |
sharing economy is the beginning of a power shift to the people, and | :36:53. | :36:58. | |
there are now 23 million users in the UK, 80 million users in the US. | :36:59. | :37:02. | |
And this is on the rise. I think it is because rather than depending on | :37:03. | :37:06. | |
big business, people would rather provide what they need and want | :37:07. | :37:09. | |
themselves and do it with each other, so they are beginning to | :37:10. | :37:12. | |
share with each other and there is a lot of social and environmental | :37:13. | :37:18. | |
benefits being realised. It is a lot of areas, where people do not like | :37:19. | :37:21. | |
being disrupted by upstarts coming in online. How do the hotels feel? | :37:22. | :37:29. | |
On one hand, we think it is worthwhile that families are allowed | :37:30. | :37:34. | |
to rent out room or even an entire floor was in their homes to guests. | :37:35. | :37:38. | |
That is a valuable additional offer to tourists. There is a lot to be | :37:39. | :37:43. | |
said for that but on the other hand, we are seeing 47%, almost half of | :37:44. | :37:47. | |
the properties listed in London, professional landlords. So in a | :37:48. | :37:54. | |
sense they are pseudo- hotels, hotels in everything but name. And | :37:55. | :38:02. | |
that leads to some... There are a lot of things wrong with that. These | :38:03. | :38:07. | |
establishments can jump through planning hoops. Planning regulation | :38:08. | :38:11. | |
is there to ensure that housing supply is not restricted. If you | :38:12. | :38:16. | |
restrict housing supply, and this is a lot of users we are talking about, | :38:17. | :38:22. | |
a lot of volume, and 50% of this volume is a professional landlords, | :38:23. | :38:25. | |
that is putting a lot of pressure on rents and inflating property prices, | :38:26. | :38:30. | |
restricting housing in areas like London where housing is a problem. | :38:31. | :38:33. | |
It is noble for you to be worried about housing in London but you are | :38:34. | :38:37. | |
really worried about competition with hotels, fundamentally. The | :38:38. | :38:40. | |
problem with hotels, competition is secondary to the social costs. | :38:41. | :38:47. | |
Reputation is a big issue for us. The establishments, these | :38:48. | :38:49. | |
professional landlords do not have to comply with health and safety | :38:50. | :38:53. | |
regulation, they are not complying with food safety regulation. If | :38:54. | :38:56. | |
something goes wrong, and I would not like us to wait for that, for | :38:57. | :39:02. | |
there to be a terrible fire, 72% of fires in the UK are in homes, these | :39:03. | :39:05. | |
things are readily did and monitored in hotels. If something goes wrong, | :39:06. | :39:11. | |
the reputation will be damaged. I wonder, is there a gap between the | :39:12. | :39:17. | |
way we treat the official sector, the hotels and B who go through | :39:18. | :39:21. | |
planning permission, and the likes of you and I who can rent out a | :39:22. | :39:26. | |
room? Is that a discrepancy we should resolve? I think it is | :39:27. | :39:29. | |
already being resolved. I would urge people to think about what is | :39:30. | :39:31. | |
happening in the states where the debate has been raging for some | :39:32. | :39:37. | |
time. We are seeing the emergence of third-party support for these sorts | :39:38. | :39:42. | |
of platforms. For example, there is an organisation in the US that | :39:43. | :39:47. | |
provides insurance to users on the sharing economy platforms. That sort | :39:48. | :39:50. | |
of invasion has not happened here yet. If I asked them, if I said to | :39:51. | :39:57. | |
them, why not give all the data of how much your participants are | :39:58. | :40:03. | |
earning, and pass that to the Treasury, so we can make sure | :40:04. | :40:08. | |
everyone is paying tax on it, like I intend to make sure the hotels do, | :40:09. | :40:12. | |
what would be wrong of seeing that was a requirement? I think that is a | :40:13. | :40:19. | |
violation of privacy for these users. I think Airbnb has been quite | :40:20. | :40:26. | |
straightforward. Recently, in the US, they created... Why should it be | :40:27. | :40:31. | |
so secret? If anyone... Everyone is playing by the rules, then why not? | :40:32. | :40:36. | |
They are business and they're trying to do what is in the best interest | :40:37. | :40:41. | |
of the users. There is a mass movement of hosts, advocating to be | :40:42. | :40:45. | |
part of everything, they like to participate in this sort of | :40:46. | :40:50. | |
exchange. To finish, Ufi Ibrihim, in terms of the effect on hotels, how | :40:51. | :40:56. | |
big an effect is this having? Probably Airbnb is bringing in more | :40:57. | :40:59. | |
customers rather than stealing business? On one hand, it is a good | :41:00. | :41:02. | |
thing but where we have professional landlords operating these hotels and | :41:03. | :41:06. | |
not paying taxes, the sharing economy has created a hidden | :41:07. | :41:10. | |
economy, which is unfortunate for UK plc. And the public safety issue, as | :41:11. | :41:16. | |
well as the issue... But how big a deal is at? 10% of the hotels' | :41:17. | :41:20. | |
business? Very difficult to tell at the moment because we have very | :41:21. | :41:26. | |
little data. Everything is hidden by the sharing economy. Thank you both | :41:27. | :41:27. | |
very much. But we learned today that, | :41:28. | :41:27. | |
embarrassed by public pressure from the Chinese dissident artist | :41:28. | :41:31. | |
Ai Weiwei, Lego ended their policy of refusing to bulk sell | :41:32. | :41:36. | |
their product in cases where the end So, in the interests of balance, | :41:37. | :41:39. | |
we leave you with the the work of cult YouTube animator Dino5500, | :41:40. | :41:45. | |
whose rather disturbing Lego remembrance of the Battle | :41:46. | :41:50. | |
of Stalingrad slightly suggests the company's sensitivities might | :41:51. | :41:52. | |
sometimes be well-founded. | :41:53. | :41:55. |