14/01/2016 Newsnight


14/01/2016

Newnight talks to chancellor George Osborne about the EU. Why did pollsters call the election wrong? The Hatton Garden heist. Plus director Alejandro Inarritu.


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Transcript


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Tonight, the Chancellor tells Newsnight that there can be NO

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This is the vote. There is no second vote. This is the vote, this is the

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crucial decision of our lifetime. We sit down

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with him in Berlin to discuss how the negotiations are going,

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and what it means for Britain. Sparkling diamonds, they are giving

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Hatton Garden sleepless nights! The nearest thing to an Ealing

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comedy that real crime gets. Three men are convicted

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for the Hatton Garden heist - what it is about jewellery

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theft that makes it such And we talk to Juliet Stevenson

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about her friend and co-star The Chancellor has told Newsnight

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there can be no second vote on Europe and called

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on the British people to focus on what he calls a 'once

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in a lifetime decision'. His comments are being interpreted

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as a direct response to some campaigning on the Leave side -

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who had floated the idea - behind the scenes -

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of having two referendums - so that people would feel freer

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to vote to leave if it meant Britain then having another chance

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at negotiating a BETTER deal - an idea the Chancellor

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was quick to scupper today. George Osborne also suggested that

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in key EU member states a consensus was emerging that Britain had made

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a perfectly reasonable case for change which would

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improve not just the UK - Whilst talk was of renegotiation

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he also staked his claim The next Conservative manifesto

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in 2015, will ask for a mandate from the British people

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for a Conservative government to negotiate

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a new settlement with our European And with that the Prime Minister let

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the blue touchpaper for the big It was perhaps no surprise

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that he appointed his long-term ally, George Osborne,

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alongside the Foreign Secretary, And, over the past few

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months in a flurry of summits and meetings,

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Britain's demands have fallen One, sorting out the relationship

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between euro members Two boosting competitiveness

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and reducing red Three protecting sovereignty

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by exempting Britain from ever close the union and bolstering

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national parliaments, and four, measures to restrain

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migration, such as limiting The Chancellor is in Berlin today,

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continuing the arguments on all that with the German and French

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finance ministers. Now obviously migration has

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caused some friction And it is that that has attracted

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most public attention. But don't let it detract

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from the things going on in the renegotiation,

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in particular, one way of looking is as a ginormous U-turn

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in British foreign policy. You see, for years,

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the mantra has been, we have to cling on to

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the idea of one Europe, Britain in that Europe,

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sitting at the top table alongside John Major talked of Britain

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being at the heart of I want us to be where we belong,

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at the very heart of Europe. Tony Blair referred

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to Britain as full players I believe we in Britain should start

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to have a little more confidence in our ability to shape

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arguments, have influence, play our part in Europe,

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without constantly worrying that Europe will turn

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into a conspiracy against Britain. So the renegotiation

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wraps all that up. You might even call

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it a tear-jerker. Because what it tries to do

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is put into writing, Europe, codifying the relationship

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between members of the euro Britain still in the EU,

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but not at its heart. One stop on his brief trip to Berlin

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to was a trendy office space for business start-ups,

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a tour with the French economy minister.

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And there he sat down. And there he sat down with me.

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Chancellor, many people think of the renegotiation is just for show.

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People who support the efforts you are making, what do you see in it

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that is important? There are some people in Britain who definitely

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want to leave Europe and others want to remain. I think the majority want

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to stay in a reformed European Union and that is why this negotiation

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matters because it offers the chance of a new settlement between Britain

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and Europe where we are not part of of a new settlement between Britain

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ever closer union, with the Eurozone cannot impose changes on us,

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ever closer union, with the Eurozone need consent. If we achieve that

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settlement they will have finally put at ease that often fractious

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relationship between Britain and put at ease that often fractious

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Europe. Give me a practical example. put at ease that often fractious

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Let's hold migration aside put at ease that often fractious

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difference it makes. Welcoming put at ease that often fractious

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is one practical example. Just put at ease that often fractious

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before the summit the Eurozone tried to land Britain with the bill for

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the Greek bailout. That would have had an impact on British taxpayers.

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the Greek bailout. That would have because of agreements we had already

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reached at a political level but it was a close run thing. We need

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permanent changes so that British taxpayers do not bail and European

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countries. Another example, some businesses were told they could not

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locate in Britain because it businesses were told they could not

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part of the Eurozone. businesses were told they could not

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challenged that. But we want to enshrine it in the

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challenged that. But we want to just enshrine it in the rules of the

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challenged that. But we want to European Union but of a safety

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mechanism that enables us to enforce those rules. You are saying that

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this marks a significant rewriting of the relationship between members

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and nonmembers of the euro, for example? For me, as the finance

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minister, at least the most important part of what we are trying

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to achieve is ensuring that Britain can operate alongside Eurozone that

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is integrating and creating ever closer political and economic and

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financial union, because Britain doesn't want to be part of that and

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I don't want Britain doesn't want to be part of that and

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choose, as some would say, between doesn't want to be part of that and

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joining a single currency, something we never want to do, and leaving the

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European Union. You know how these we never want to do, and leaving the

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negotiations are going, have you made up your mind on how you will

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vote in the referendum? What I want to do is achieve a successful

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renegotiation, that is one thing I want to do in Berlin. But we can

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achieve that we can recommend to the British people that we can stay

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achieve that we can recommend to the this reformed European Union. Until

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the conclusion of that renegotiation, we rule nothing out.

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So you, George Osborne, really could actually recommend to the British

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people that we the European Union? As I say, we rule nothing out.

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Accent I don't go into these things, David Cameron is not going to these

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things, my Cabinet colleagues do not go into these things thinking that

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we will fail. We watched as exceed in these negotiations. Here in

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Berlin just weeks before a crucial European Council when we will make

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these decisions, I am pretty optimistic. We can see the central

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pieces of the deal falling into place. We will achieve a more

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competitive Europe, make sure we will not be part of ever closer

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union. We will be able to secure our rights as a country not part of the

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euro and I think we will be able to deal with the abuse of free movement

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and people travelling just to claim welfare benefits. Achieve those

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things and you are dealing with many of the major concerns people have

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about the status quo in Europe. A big step forward. Is the Treasury

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planning contingencies for bricks at -- Brexit? This is where the

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resources of the Treasury are deployed... Six months from

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negotiating an exit, you are open-minded about whether we will

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stay in or go out and you are not prepared for it! As I say, our

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efforts on making sure that we achieve a successful renegotiation.

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And I see, not just in Germany but in France, in other key states,

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consensus emerging that Britain has made a reasonable case for change,

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and this new settlement is not only better for Britain but potentially

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better for the rest of Europe as well. I am optimistic. One of the

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reasons we got this far is because a lot of hard work has been done, not

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just by the politicians but by civil servants, to achieve it. In the

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interests of plain speaking and clarity, most people know that you

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support EU membership and you will be optimistic that you will be

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supporting it because the renegotiation is going well enough

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for us to stay in. You would not defer from what I have just said is

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a summary of your position? I will put my way. I hope to be able to

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recommend that we should stay in a reformed European Union. I came into

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the House of Commons in 2001, I'm a Eurosceptic like many of my

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conservative colleagues because I'm Eurosceptic like many of my

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concerned about some of the things that happened in the European Union.

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That's why I want to make this changes... Let's talk about seeking

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a position where we can achieve this changes. Then we can have the best

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of both Wells, we can be in the European Union, yet not run by it.

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To use an old, but apt slogan. Let's talk about something that matters

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more on the continent and possibly more to the people of Britain, which

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is migration, refugees, flows of people. David Cameron implied that

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is migration, refugees, flows of for Europeans to come to Britain

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they would need a job. Then he implied that if they were there for

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six months without a job they would have to go home. It seems that all

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of that has been dumped and we have a much watered-down objective in

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of that has been dumped and we have terms of the migration of objective

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and renegotiation. Is that right? The objective that we are seeking is

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the one we put in our manifesto that button voted on last year. That is,

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you cannot abuse the free movement of people just to come to our

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country and claim benefits. And we need to address this... It has been

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watered down from what the prime ministers said in 2014. I don't

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think that's true. David Cameron, in a speech at Bloomberg, said we had

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to address the abuse of free movement. Benchmark one Commons

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select committee was told, on a specific proposal of curbing

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benefits, he said it would not have much impact, do you agree? I don't,

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actually. Budget have you looked at the impact that it will have? The

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work that has been done, including by bodies like independent Europe,

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respected think tank, is that this would help reduce the flow of

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migration to the UK. Paige will it get it down? Do you seek European

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migration coming down, post renegotiation? If you remove the

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unnatural drawer of our welfare system, you will be able to reduce

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it... Down to 10s of thousands, the overarching objective of this

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government? It will contribute to it. Has 10s of thousands will

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include migration from non-European countries so we will take measures

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to make sure that that is not abused either. Many people have said you

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have been clever with the living wage proposal, raising it to ?9 or

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more by the end of parliament. If that helps British workers it will

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be an enormous drawer to Polish or central European workers, won't it?

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What we want our migrants who make a big contribution to our

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What we want our migrants who make a paid their taxes, and that is a good

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thing for our country but we want that migration to be controlled and

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we don't want our migration system to be abused. OK if they come for

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the minimum wage, as long as they do not come for benefits. Using to be

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saying, yes if they are working, no if it is benefits. I am not saying

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that migration is a bad thing per se but and must be controlled. On this

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issue of borders which will clearly be a big part of the campaign, Alan

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Johnson, on this programme last might, said that if we leave, you

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will not get your borders back. Any plausible scenario, he said, about a

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new relationship with Europe, we will, like Norway and Switzerland,

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maintain free movement of people. Is that your view? If we vote out when

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the referendum comes, we will probably end up with free movement

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anyway? I agree with Alan that if you look at the other models offered

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like Norway and Switzerland and the like, there are open borders in the

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sense that this is part of the deal that they had to sign up to. I would

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say Britain has the best of both worlds. The reason why we don't have

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won a million refugees flowing in, in the way that Germany has had, is

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precisely because we are in control of our borders. Benchmark will we

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have a border or not after the referendum? Will we have free

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movement, this is a basic question and we don't seem to have a clear

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answer to it. We have a border today because

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Britain is not part of Schengen from a -- the free movement. We are not

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part of the single currency. You raise a perfectly good question,

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which is, if it comes to the referendum, and there are people

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advocating that we leave in that referendum, they will have to answer

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the question, what is the alternative, are we going to have

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free movement of people, are we going to have to pay into the

:15:43.:15:46.

European budget to have access to their market anyway, will we have

:15:47.:15:50.

European budget to have access to sign up to the rules even if we

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don't have a vote on those rules, these are all the things that

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countries like Norway face today. And they will be good questions to

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put giving a referendum campaign. Do you think a referendum will settle

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it? I think it will, for at least a generation, for my lifetime. Some

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people talked about a second referendum. This is the vote. There

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is no second vote. This is the crucial decision of our lifetimes.

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Anyone who votes out on the assumption a year or two later you

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can have another vote to go back in is being unrealistic. It is

:16:36.:16:39.

important British people focus on the fact this is a

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once-in-a-lifetime decision. Last one, you are going around capitals

:16:46.:16:51.

of Europe and they are worried about migration, terrorism, Paris events,

:16:52.:16:57.

ten killed in Turkey. Do they not look at you and think they have

:16:58.:17:04.

bigger things to worry about? Talking to Germans here. Businesses,

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some of the German people and the politicians, they understand many of

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Britain's frustrations and share some of them. They want Europe to

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succeed and create jobs and growth and offer security, let's achieve

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the reforms and have that settlement so we can vote to remain in that

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reformed Europe. It was like the plot

:17:23.:17:24.

of an Ealing comedy. A gang of ageing criminals,

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with bus passes and sleeping bags, pull off a ?14 million raid on safe

:17:28.:17:35.

deposit boxes in Hatton Garden - astonishing Scotland Yard,

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and perhaps themselves, too. Three of them convicted

:17:36.:17:36.

at Woolwich Crown Court of involvement in the country's

:17:37.:17:40.

biggest burglary. Of course, no crime is victimless,

:17:41.:17:47.

and much of the money and jewellery But no one was hurt in the raid,

:17:48.:17:54.

and for romantics of a certain Sparkling diamonds, their value

:17:55.:18:00.

running into millions, are giving Hatton Garden

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sleepless nights. Willie Sutton, the most famous

:18:06.:18:13.

American bank robber, they asked why he robbed banks

:18:14.:18:17.

and he said, because that is where Last Easter raiders got

:18:18.:18:20.

into the Hatton Garden vaults, lowered themselves down a lift shaft

:18:21.:18:29.

and used high power drills to access It was like a reboot

:18:30.:18:30.

of the Lavender Hill Mob, except this lot were

:18:31.:18:39.

like the Over The Hill Police say the gang who broke

:18:40.:18:41.

into a vault in Hatton Garden... They said the thieves

:18:42.:18:49.

were organised. There was a theory it had

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to be an international gang like the Pink Panther, this

:18:57.:19:04.

famous gang of robbers and thieves. That there was not enough British

:19:05.:19:16.

ingenuity left to carry it out, that we have two imports doctors and IT

:19:17.:19:22.

people and footballers and we have to import criminals, also. But the

:19:23.:19:26.

elite international cartel theory took a dent after the flying squad

:19:27.:19:29.

arrested a group of British criminals getting on in years. In

:19:30.:19:36.

fact they had a combined age of 500. A lot of them are having to go like

:19:37.:19:45.

this to hear the evidence. They have to to be excused periodically

:19:46.:19:46.

because they need to pay a visit. There is a lot of talk about hip

:19:47.:19:51.

replacements and bladder problems and so on. The firm included

:19:52.:19:57.

76-year-old Brian Reader, also known as the governor, who admitted his

:19:58.:19:59.

part in the job. He went as the governor, who admitted his

:20:00.:20:05.

burglary by bus with the Freedom pass and apparently got cold feet

:20:06.:20:09.

after the crooks fail to crack the vault on the first night. Kenny

:20:10.:20:18.

Collins, 75, admitted his involvement, he drove the getaway

:20:19.:20:23.

car and kept watch outside the vault but the court heard he fell asleep.

:20:24.:20:29.

Daniel Jones ex 60 almost the baby of the group. Police found a copy of

:20:30.:20:35.

forensics for dummies at his house. He took part in the theft. William

:20:36.:20:40.

Lincoln claimed he had been at Billingsgate Fish market at the

:20:41.:20:44.

time, but was convicted of his part in it. Noel Razor Smith has served

:20:45.:20:52.

time for armed robbery and for many years has gone straight as an author

:20:53.:20:58.

and journalist. Professional criminals are always after the big

:20:59.:21:01.

one and the big one is something that is a job you can undertake and

:21:02.:21:06.

retire and never go back to that is a job you can undertake and

:21:07.:21:10.

criminality or prison again, and this was their big one, which is why

:21:11.:21:13.

I'm surprised they messed it up so badly. Rule number one when you

:21:14.:21:18.

start out in this game, if you are going to the trouble of doing a job

:21:19.:21:22.

like that, do not have the gear around you afterwards. The number of

:21:23.:21:28.

people who can do this is very small and it is a matter of the flying

:21:29.:21:35.

squad looking at who is in or out, who is dead, who is abroad, and the

:21:36.:21:37.

list is small. If you are on the list, you will be contacted. As

:21:38.:21:46.

their dreams turn to dust the ageing ringleaders faced the prospect of

:21:47.:21:50.

spending their declining years inside. Daniel Jones confessed and

:21:51.:21:54.

told police he could lead them to his stash, under the headstone of

:21:55.:22:00.

told police he could lead them to one of his dear departed in a north

:22:01.:22:03.

London cemetery. Before that outing took place, officers came to the

:22:04.:22:08.

cemetery by themselves and under another headstone belonging to

:22:09.:22:13.

another member of Jones' extended family they found a second larger

:22:14.:22:17.

hall of loot, which Jones had strangely omitted to tell them

:22:18.:22:20.

about. When he was confronted about this, he said, oh, that, that was

:22:21.:22:29.

for my future use. To most professionals, giving back what you

:22:30.:22:35.

have stolen is anathema. You do not want to do the work, do the prison

:22:36.:22:40.

sentence and come back to nothing. You do not want to give back what

:22:41.:22:44.

you have stolen, a hard fact with criminality. Why do it and then give

:22:45.:22:49.

the money back? Putting a job together takes patience and money

:22:50.:22:52.

and skill. Today's criminals have not got that. They are the last of

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their kind. The dinosaurs of the criminal world and the last to be

:23:00.:23:05.

taken down. Police surveillance tapes captured the gang's hopeless

:23:06.:23:10.

bravado. Danny Jones, one of the guilty men, tells Terry Perkins,

:23:11.:23:15.

another of the guilty men, on this tape, well, at least, Terry, we can

:23:16.:23:21.

say we gave it one last go. I think it would make a good title for the

:23:22.:23:27.

film. You hear them talking about it is the biggest, expletive deleted,

:23:28.:23:31.

burglary in the expletive deleted world.

:23:32.:23:44.

He had a capacity to fell you with a look or lift

:23:45.:23:50.

you with a word, Emma Thompson said today.

:23:51.:23:52.

Paying tribute to her friend and co star, Alan Rickman.

:23:53.:23:57.

When his death was announced earlier it felt to many like a thump

:23:58.:23:58.

An actor whose powerful and commanding presence

:23:59.:24:02.

gave him a unique voice - and the adoration of millions -

:24:03.:24:05.

He reached film fame relatively late in life - but then his

:24:06.:24:15.

list of successes - Die Hard, Sense And Sensbility,

:24:16.:24:18.

the Sheriff of Nottingham in Robin Hood and Severus Snape

:24:19.:24:20.

in the Harry Potter films showed his range and the depth

:24:21.:24:23.

Juliet Stevenson played his partner in Truly Madly Deeply -

:24:24.:24:31.

an achingly moving film about loss and grief.

:24:32.:24:36.

She joins me, but first, a reminder of the scene

:24:37.:24:39.

in which he appears to her from beyond the grave.

:24:40.:24:44.

# A deep shade of blue is always there.

:24:45.:25:02.

# The sun ain't gonna shine any more.

:25:03.:25:06.

# The moon ain't going to rise in the skies.

:25:07.:25:11.

# The tears are always clouding your eyes.

:25:12.:25:15.

That film is unbearably poignant. Doubly more so today. Looking at it

:25:16.:25:46.

I am thinking it is a good representation of what he could do,

:25:47.:25:51.

which was basically everything. Make people cry, laugh, fall in love with

:25:52.:25:57.

him. Very sexy, delicious, surprising, challenging. He could do

:25:58.:26:02.

anything and you get a sense of his surprising, challenging. He could do

:26:03.:26:05.

range in that film. Those scenes were improvised? That scene was

:26:06.:26:09.

improvised because there is not much dialogue in it and it was the

:26:10.:26:16.

hardest scene to shoot. The great gift of making that film with him

:26:17.:26:21.

was it was clever casting by Anthony Minghella because we had known each

:26:22.:26:22.

other a long time and I Minghella because we had known each

:26:23.:26:28.

him like many people as a family member more than a friend, even. We

:26:29.:26:33.

had a lot of history and it played in well to the story of the film. He

:26:34.:26:38.

was inventive to work with, very creative, thinking all the time

:26:39.:26:42.

about the bigger picture. He had his eye on everything will stop what the

:26:43.:26:47.

camera was doing, what the design was. He thought very big and had

:26:48.:26:51.

many kinds of talent that could was. He thought very big and had

:26:52.:26:56.

address itself to all parts of the job will stop he had a lot to offer

:26:57.:26:59.

in every department will stop he was more than an act but an inspiration

:27:00.:27:04.

to everyone on the crew as I am sure he was on every group. The voice was

:27:05.:27:11.

hypnotic. Sometimes there was a look, as Emma Thompson said, one

:27:12.:27:17.

look, one word, and I broke, a glance. -- an eyebrow. He was the

:27:18.:27:27.

most economic person. He is looking down now saying, just think before

:27:28.:27:30.

you speak. He could make you roar with laughter with a couple of

:27:31.:27:35.

words. He could say something insightful with just one line.

:27:36.:27:41.

Astonishingly economic, but he had a laser beam accuracy about what

:27:42.:27:45.

needed to be said, whether it was funny, insightful, tricky,

:27:46.:27:55.

challenging. Is that from his stage structure that came before film? He

:27:56.:27:58.

was a theatre actor for a long time before he became a big movie star.

:27:59.:28:03.

He was a classical actor on stage and we met at the Royal Shakespeare

:28:04.:28:09.

Company. A lot of busted who were friends of him. He had an incredible

:28:10.:28:15.

technique. As for that capacity, he always have that. -- as a lot of us

:28:16.:28:23.

were. He was instinctive, intuitive. His judgments came from an amazing

:28:24.:28:28.

blend of the mind, intuition, hunch, observation. And great humanity. We

:28:29.:28:38.

think about the baddies that he relished playing, but also the

:28:39.:28:43.

uptight characters that gave so little away like the kernel in sense

:28:44.:28:47.

and sensibility, when it was so English and restrained. Which he was

:28:48.:28:55.

not in many ways. He did not come from the English upper class. I

:28:56.:29:01.

think he was genuinely a classless person. There was no hierarchy for

:29:02.:29:06.

his heart. He treated everybody with the same courtesy and generosity of

:29:07.:29:10.

spirit. That is one reason he is very loved. He would be as courteous

:29:11.:29:17.

to the driver, dresser, or the director of a movie and it is not

:29:18.:29:22.

sentimental to say that. He saw the possibilities in everybody. He was

:29:23.:29:37.

famously and and most generous. He would give people the courage to go

:29:38.:29:40.

in a direction, help young people find their path. Was there a scene

:29:41.:29:47.

or conversation or an exchange that lies in the heart of your

:29:48.:29:55.

relationship together? There are so many of those. I have just come from

:29:56.:30:00.

a house full of close friends and his wife, where everybody is

:30:01.:30:05.

a house full of close friends and stories. We feel we have lost our

:30:06.:30:11.

leader. Because he was who we look to for guidance. He was more than a

:30:12.:30:17.

close friend, he was a great light in our community. We all

:30:18.:30:20.

close friend, he was a great light have lost the steering wheel in our

:30:21.:30:21.

car. We will rumble along the have lost the steering wheel in our

:30:22.:30:26.

but not know quite which way to go for a while. I do not know if

:30:27.:30:29.

but not know quite which way to go pick out a single thing. When I

:30:30.:30:32.

played pick out a single thing. When I

:30:33.:30:37.

measure and had success with it, playing a virtuous, intelligent and

:30:38.:30:39.

forthright playing a virtuous, intelligent and

:30:40.:30:41.

see a is good, but now I think you should

:30:42.:30:46.

is good, but now I think you should play her as though she had bright

:30:47.:30:52.

red six inch heels. I thought, what do you mean? And then, I see what

:30:53.:30:56.

you mean. There needs to be sexuality in this character. He

:30:57.:31:02.

always pushed you in a surprising direction you may not have

:31:03.:31:05.

always pushed you in a surprising recognised, but he was almost

:31:06.:31:08.

invariably right. None of us who loved him really know how we will

:31:09.:31:12.

get along without him. Thank you so much.

:31:13.:31:24.

For eight long months, one of the unanswered questions

:31:25.:31:26.

of the general election is why the result took so many by surprise.

:31:27.:31:29.

Where, in other words, did the polling go wrong?

:31:30.:31:31.

Next week, we will see the findings of the official report into it.

:31:32.:31:34.

But today, leading psephologist John Curtice made his

:31:35.:31:36.

What emerges isn't rocket science, but a failure quite simply to talk

:31:37.:31:40.

One pollster who got the prediction right -

:31:41.:31:43.

And published it before the result came out

:31:44.:31:55.

He says that the problem was much bigger than that -

:31:56.:31:59.

that there was a failure to talk to the politically disengaged.

:32:00.:32:01.

To put it another way, you don't ask those who go to church

:32:02.:32:05.

You also ask those who only turn up at Christmas,

:32:06.:32:09.

last to's general election produced the most unexpected result in a

:32:10.:32:15.

generation. The opinion polls pointed to an incredibly close

:32:16.:32:18.

contest. Pundits, forecasters and politicians thought I hang

:32:19.:32:25.

Parliament was inevitable. They were all wrong. Before the election I

:32:26.:32:29.

uncovered a series of statistical patterns that suggested that things

:32:30.:32:34.

were not as they seemed. Looking at historical patterns, local

:32:35.:32:37.

elections, by-elections and what people thought of the leaders I was

:32:38.:32:41.

convinced that the headline numbers were wrong. But how were the opinion

:32:42.:32:45.

polls so far off? Politics in were wrong. But how were the opinion

:32:46.:32:50.

last Parliament was unusual. Two thirds of two ready ten Lib Dems

:32:51.:32:54.

abandon the party. The pollsters got back right. Although they thought

:32:55.:32:56.

more people would vote Labour than Tory. They were right in thinking

:32:57.:33:02.

that the vote share of Ukip would quadruple although wrong in thinking

:33:03.:33:05.

it would hurt the Tories much more than Labour. That is how the

:33:06.:33:08.

pollsters ended up in complying with than Labour. That is how the

:33:09.:33:13.

this result of 2015. After the election I dug into the results and

:33:14.:33:16.

found the Tories were gaining more votes from the Lib Dems than

:33:17.:33:21.

believed and Labour was losing more support to Ukip than indicated. The

:33:22.:33:26.

narrative around the changes in the British political landscape was

:33:27.:33:30.

wrong. Wax to Mark White? To measure public opinion, pollsters do not ask

:33:31.:33:38.

everyone. One sample of 1000 people can be enough to give an accurate

:33:39.:33:43.

estimate although it must be representative, or made

:33:44.:33:47.

representative. Pollsters, put more weight on the types of voter

:33:48.:33:51.

representative. Pollsters, put more they have too few of and less weight

:33:52.:33:55.

on people whose opinion they have too much of. This time it went

:33:56.:34:00.

wrong. The study conducted after every general election uses a

:34:01.:34:04.

different method. Unlike convention in polling where you would call 1000

:34:05.:34:08.

people and then wait them against that they looked like the general

:34:09.:34:12.

population we take addresses more less out of the hat and we went to

:34:13.:34:16.

those houses and interviewed the people who lived there. The end

:34:17.:34:19.

result is that first you get a sample that looks more like the

:34:20.:34:23.

general population without re-weighting. And secondly for

:34:24.:34:28.

political purposes the number of people who said they voted for each

:34:29.:34:33.

party looked almost the same as the election result and like most

:34:34.:34:39.

pre-election polls. My analysis suggested they ended up with too

:34:40.:34:42.

many political in gauge to people. Sampling was behind the mistake. --

:34:43.:34:49.

politically engaged people. The young respondents were not

:34:50.:34:51.

representative of their age group. As if they were putting too much

:34:52.:34:58.

weight on Twitter users with a political axe to grind. People voted

:34:59.:35:01.

for one the coalition parties in 2010 and switching to an opposition

:35:02.:35:05.

party were overrepresented. Those who voted Tory in 2010 and stayed

:35:06.:35:10.

loyal in 2015 were under-represented. In simple terms

:35:11.:35:16.

we'd need more people who do not engage with politics. Or don't vote.

:35:17.:35:22.

We overestimated the turnout. We will want to do a better job on that

:35:23.:35:30.

next time. The huge challenge will be polling for Britain's EU

:35:31.:35:34.

membership referendum, the electorate will vote across party

:35:35.:35:39.

lines making weighting method is less effective than before, which

:35:40.:35:42.

places an even greater premium on getting a representative sample.

:35:43.:35:47.

Pollsters have been examining political activity, browsing habits

:35:48.:35:50.

and even whether they watch Newsnight. If they are going to get

:35:51.:35:55.

this right pollsters need to work towards more representative samples.

:35:56.:36:01.

One of the intere Lunch Mac sting things is not

:36:02.:36:03.

result, but what effect it had on the election result as a whole.

:36:04.:36:10.

Tom Baldwin worked for Ed Miliband until he lost the election.

:36:11.:36:13.

Rosie Campbell, from Birkbeck University,

:36:14.:36:14.

has research interests in voting behaviour

:36:15.:36:15.

Tom, looking back, what did it change? I think it made both

:36:16.:36:28.

campaigns more risk averse. People were talking about it being a very

:36:29.:36:32.

close campaign and a lot was at stake. And it changed the end of the

:36:33.:36:41.

campaigns. In those final two weeks, all the news was about the risk of a

:36:42.:36:41.

campaigns. In those final two weeks, Labour government propped up by the

:36:42.:36:45.

SNP. The BBC was particularly obsessed by this story. We could not

:36:46.:36:50.

get our 's story, the risk of a Tory second term, a Tory majority, up at

:36:51.:36:57.

all. I think that changed the campaign and might even have had

:36:58.:37:00.

some influence on the result. If the opinion polls had been accurate you

:37:01.:37:04.

would have had a final stage of the campaign where people would have

:37:05.:37:06.

been looking at a Tory majority government. Were people scared with

:37:07.:37:15.

whatever they thought was going to be the result? That is the only way

:37:16.:37:16.

you will get people to vote against it. Certainly you must talks if I go

:37:17.:37:24.

opponents. The Tories were very successful at talks if eyeing us. We

:37:25.:37:27.

were raising legitimate points about what would happen to the tax credits

:37:28.:37:34.

and the NHS. But got no airtime in the final weeks. The contrast with

:37:35.:37:39.

2010 when everyone expected a Tory majority and Gordon Brown pulled

:37:40.:37:43.

back a bit of the end because people were talking about Tory majority

:37:44.:37:47.

government, that did not happen this time. Rosie, the problem is that if

:37:48.:37:53.

they get people who are not politically engaged, if pollsters

:37:54.:37:59.

keep going to people who are offering good opinions, that cements

:38:00.:38:02.

the problem. Some of it is about statistical literacy. We need to

:38:03.:38:05.

know what is a good-quality pole and what is not. And actually the

:38:06.:38:11.

high-quality darter discussed in the video, they make between six and

:38:12.:38:16.

nine attempts to reach the same individual, whereas some of the

:38:17.:38:20.

pollsters are making one attempt. That costs money. It has been an

:38:21.:38:26.

investment in resources. Who was not spending that? Nobody apart from one

:38:27.:38:35.

server is being able to put in that money and effort, so it's a plug for

:38:36.:38:40.

social research, to understand what the electorate once you must invest

:38:41.:38:45.

in high-quality surveys. While doing your own internal survey was there

:38:46.:38:51.

not a sense from you, from the MPs, from politicians, we always hear

:38:52.:38:54.

about the doorstep, does no one say anything helpful on the doorstep? I

:38:55.:39:00.

think everyone got this wrong, the pundits, the politicians, the

:39:01.:39:05.

pollsters. You are the party so innocents you know if someone likes

:39:06.:39:10.

you. One thing that is true is come in every election I can remember,

:39:11.:39:18.

including mine and seven, 2001, 2005, with the exception of 2010,

:39:19.:39:21.

the Labour vote has been slightly overestimated in the opinion polls.

:39:22.:39:26.

That is why a lot of us were a little sceptical about whether we

:39:27.:39:29.

would win a majority will be the biggest party. Very sceptical.

:39:30.:39:35.

Whether opinion polls affect the way that the media covered the campaign

:39:36.:39:41.

and the fact that perceptions, that is the big question. Interesting

:39:42.:39:44.

when we talk about lazy Labour, is the big question. Interesting

:39:45.:39:49.

shy Tories, as if people were lying is the big question. Interesting

:39:50.:39:51.

on the phone, they didn't, if this was right. There is no evidence of

:39:52.:39:56.

lying. It looks as if it is a sample biased issue and Labour voters were

:39:57.:40:01.

easier to read so if you made one attempt to contact the body you will

:40:02.:40:05.

more likely to reach a Labour voter. The young people either on the phone

:40:06.:40:08.

or the Internet were the kind of young people who are interested in

:40:09.:40:12.

politics, a rare breed, and they are more likely to vote Labour. And

:40:13.:40:17.

there's something else about Labour voters, they seem to be more readily

:40:18.:40:22.

available. Tom, if you were doing it again now, knowing how the polls

:40:23.:40:27.

were skewered, what would you have done differently in those last few

:40:28.:40:38.

weeks? No Ed Stone, more focus on travel? What would you have told Ed

:40:39.:40:44.

Miliband to do? Is a lesson to everyone. Pollsters and parties.

:40:45.:40:48.

Opinion polls should not be the basis, the frame on which campaigns

:40:49.:40:55.

run. There were 700 of them last year. It was driving a lot of what

:40:56.:41:00.

we were doing, a lot of of the media were doing. We were not really

:41:01.:41:05.

having a debate about different programmes of government, it was a

:41:06.:41:10.

gigantic process story, what happens if Labour are propped up by the SNP.

:41:11.:41:15.

That wasn't doing the electorate any favours. It wasn't allowing them to

:41:16.:41:19.

make a rational choice about the options available. Would there have

:41:20.:41:23.

been a different policy wore different language used by Labour,

:41:24.:41:29.

knowing what you know now? We would have talked much more about the

:41:30.:41:30.

prospect of a Tory majority government and what it would mean.

:41:31.:41:35.

What does this mean, going ahead, we have a year

:41:36.:41:46.

full of elections now, not least the EU referendum. Does this mean we

:41:47.:41:50.

don't rely on pollsters, or we have collective amnesiac and go back in?

:41:51.:41:53.

I think what we should do is treat opinion polls with caution. The

:41:54.:41:56.

chances of collective amnesiac are high because copy will be needed for

:41:57.:42:01.

newspapers so there will be polls, although I think the commentators

:42:02.:42:06.

will take them with a pinch of salt. I am sceptical about the polling

:42:07.:42:12.

industry funding the silver bullet that will solve its problems. Labour

:42:13.:42:14.

has a credibility problem and I think the polling industry does as

:42:15.:42:18.

well. Finding out you did not reach in of Tory voters is like us saying

:42:19.:42:23.

that we did not rich enough Tory ones! Thank you both. I am afraid

:42:24.:42:34.

that is always have time for tonight, but we will be back

:42:35.:42:35.

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