Browse content similar to 14/03/2016. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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The Russians say they're with drawing from Syria. | :00:08. | :00:11. | |
Is it job done or is something else going on? | :00:12. | :00:20. | |
We'll ask what this means for peace talks and for the Assad regime. | :00:21. | :00:25. | |
Also tonight, the shaken baby row - We talk to the doctor who's accused | :00:26. | :00:30. | |
of dishonesty and threatened with being struck off, | :00:31. | :00:33. | |
because of her trial evidence as an expert witness. | :00:34. | :00:36. | |
In plain English, are you saying that shaken baby syndrome is | :00:37. | :00:43. | |
rubbish? Yes, I am. I think we've known that from the very outset. I | :00:44. | :00:47. | |
know it's not... Will scenes like this help or halt | :00:48. | :00:51. | |
the Donald Trump juggernaut? If you're an African first, go back | :00:52. | :01:00. | |
to Africa. Go back to Europe. We'll be talking to George Bush's | :01:01. | :01:05. | |
former speech writer, Like so many things Russian, | :01:06. | :01:08. | |
it came entirely without warning: An announcement by President Putin, | :01:09. | :01:22. | |
a few hours ago, that his troops would - in the main - | :01:23. | :01:25. | |
be pulling out of Syria. The Obama administration - | :01:26. | :01:28. | |
and indeed governments here in Europe - | :01:29. | :01:30. | |
were taken by surprise. Perhaps that was no small | :01:31. | :01:32. | |
part of the strategy. It is five months since Russian | :01:33. | :01:35. | |
forces entered the conflict in Syria, at the request, | :01:36. | :01:38. | |
the Kremlin says, of Tonight, President Putin spoke | :01:39. | :01:41. | |
with the air of a man whose So is it a genuine withdrawal | :01:42. | :01:45. | |
or is it a political manoeuvre Lyse Doucet, the BBC's chief | :01:46. | :02:07. | |
international correspondent, has spent much of the last five | :02:08. | :02:12. | |
years covering the Syrian civil war, How do you read this? I think we | :02:13. | :02:26. | |
have to be very careful in how we read it. Because the West has gotten | :02:27. | :02:31. | |
Russia wrong so many times before. Go back to September of last year, | :02:32. | :02:37. | |
when Russia suddenly announced that it was going to be targeting the | :02:38. | :02:43. | |
so-called Islamic State in Syria. That took Western powers, took the | :02:44. | :02:47. | |
world, by surprise then. Recently senior American officials said to | :02:48. | :02:51. | |
me, we were naive. We believed Russia when it said that it would be | :02:52. | :02:56. | |
targeting IS. Then they slowly began to realise that the main target was | :02:57. | :02:59. | |
not IS at all, it was some of the very groups that the West, the | :03:00. | :03:03. | |
moderate opposition groups, that the West wanted to have at the | :03:04. | :03:06. | |
negotiating table venlt it's interesting -- table. It's | :03:07. | :03:11. | |
interesting to hear the phrase used by President Putin, "job done". | :03:12. | :03:19. | |
Under cover of coming in to support the West, the Russians have | :03:20. | :03:23. | |
strengthened their only Naval Base along the Mediterranean. They have | :03:24. | :03:26. | |
built a new air base, they're using that for their flights. They've sent | :03:27. | :03:31. | |
in advanced weaponry. All of that is staying. Russia isn't going | :03:32. | :03:34. | |
anywhere. What about the decision to say it's going to be pulling out | :03:35. | :03:38. | |
some of its troops? Well, I think that is sending a message about the | :03:39. | :03:43. | |
other objective for President Putin. Having strengthened the position of | :03:44. | :03:46. | |
President Assad's forces, and they were almost failing on some | :03:47. | :03:51. | |
strategic frontlines, it is now turning his attention to the | :03:52. | :03:54. | |
political process, the so-called Peace Talks, and I don't think it | :03:55. | :03:58. | |
likes the soundings it's getting from Damascus, where they're saying | :03:59. | :04:03. | |
we refuse to discuss the future of President Assad and even | :04:04. | :04:06. | |
presidential elections, which are part of the very political process | :04:07. | :04:10. | |
that Russia has played a key role in forging. As you work through the tea | :04:11. | :04:15. | |
leaves, where do you think it leaves Western intervention in Syria? Well, | :04:16. | :04:22. | |
let's say that the last five months of Russia's intervention in Syria | :04:23. | :04:28. | |
have been first, rising anger in Western capitals, but aside from | :04:29. | :04:36. | |
that, hand wringing. They have found themselves absolutely powerless to | :04:37. | :04:40. | |
do anything as Russia got away with its strategic objectives in the | :04:41. | :04:43. | |
reason. I was at the Munich security forum, the place was resounding to | :04:44. | :04:47. | |
criticism of Russia. I said well, then why did Russia get away with it | :04:48. | :04:53. | |
and allow an agreement on a truce which excluded the Russian bombing | :04:54. | :04:57. | |
in Syria around strategic areas like Aleppo and you'd get a shrug. Well, | :04:58. | :05:04. | |
we had to work with Russia. Russia is the main player. So Russia has | :05:05. | :05:12. | |
played a role. It's not for nothing. Look at Arab states backing the | :05:13. | :05:15. | |
opposition. They're making more trips to Moscow than they are to | :05:16. | :05:19. | |
Washington. When I saw King Abdullah last month, he says, "The Russians | :05:20. | :05:24. | |
for bad or worse have shaken the tree." You might not like what's | :05:25. | :05:28. | |
coming down from the tree, but it's galvanised the process. Fascinating. | :05:29. | :05:30. | |
Thanks very much. Let's look at what the Russian | :05:31. | :05:33. | |
withdrawal tells us about the state of the Syria crisis and how the West | :05:34. | :05:35. | |
should respond to it. Joining me now are Crispin Blunt, | :05:36. | :05:38. | |
chair of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee, and Sarah Lain, | :05:39. | :05:41. | |
a Russia expert at the Royal United Warm welcome to you both. Thanks for | :05:42. | :05:52. | |
coming in. It's a very interesting to hear Lyse put it not from our | :05:53. | :05:59. | |
perspective, but perhaps from the perspective of Bashar al-Assad. He's | :06:00. | :06:05. | |
angry. There's an element of truth in that. There's been a dichotomy, | :06:06. | :06:09. | |
between the Iranians and Russians, in terms of their attitude to Assad | :06:10. | :06:14. | |
and his longevity. The Russians have key interests there, continuing with | :06:15. | :06:18. | |
their air base and Naval Base. That's going to be sustained. There | :06:19. | :06:21. | |
will have been interesting conversations between the Saudis and | :06:22. | :06:24. | |
Russians where certainly the Saudis have been using the oil weapon to | :06:25. | :06:29. | |
depress the oil price, which has a serious effect on the Russian | :06:30. | :06:35. | |
economy. I don't think we should overlook Russia's need to address | :06:36. | :06:40. | |
that issue. If Assad, they are putting Assad in play, that may meet | :06:41. | :06:46. | |
some Saudi objectives. At the same time, they are militarily probably | :06:47. | :06:50. | |
very stretched to sustain this operation for very much longer. | :06:51. | :06:57. | |
Lyse's words came with a caveat. All things Russian you have to take with | :06:58. | :07:02. | |
a pinch of salt. You're very good at watching the Putin manoeuvres. What | :07:03. | :07:05. | |
do you read into what he's done today? I think the element of | :07:06. | :07:09. | |
mistrust is obviously quite large in this, particularly from the West | :07:10. | :07:12. | |
towards Russia. Russia came into this saying it was fighting Isis. It | :07:13. | :07:16. | |
clearly wasn't. But I do think to echo what's been said is that | :07:17. | :07:20. | |
there's really nothing the West can do about this. Russia came into this | :07:21. | :07:25. | |
scenario for strategic reasons. It was trying to bolster Assad, at a | :07:26. | :07:29. | |
time when he looked like he was falling. Without Assad Russia loses | :07:30. | :07:33. | |
influence in the Middle East. Things have moved on since then. It was a | :07:34. | :07:37. | |
matter of time before Russia needed to pick a point at which it needed | :07:38. | :07:41. | |
to move the situation to a political discussion, which is what you're | :07:42. | :07:44. | |
seeing from Putin now. Interesting that we hear that the Naval Base | :07:45. | :07:48. | |
there has never been stronger. Was this all part of a process just to | :07:49. | :07:54. | |
shore up Russian naval support there, whatever the antics in the | :07:55. | :07:58. | |
air? I think that's part of it. Certainly there was a strategic | :07:59. | :08:04. | |
military objective. Previously this was not strategically important to | :08:05. | :08:08. | |
Russia. They've built it up. They've put personnel there and gained a new | :08:09. | :08:13. | |
air base in La tacka, which is now a centre for mediating the ceasefire | :08:14. | :08:17. | |
that Russia helped to broker. This was partly part of Russia's foreign | :08:18. | :08:23. | |
policy within the Middle East. But also, foreign policy that's been | :08:24. | :08:28. | |
consistent with what we've seen in Ukraine, regarding Russia's | :08:29. | :08:30. | |
frustration at the Russian perception that America is setting | :08:31. | :08:33. | |
the international rules. I think there are many objectives here. Do | :08:34. | :08:38. | |
you think we will regard this as victory of a sort for Russia? When | :08:39. | :08:44. | |
history writes it they'll say, there was this unsolvable conflict, you're | :08:45. | :08:47. | |
came in, within five months, they had a ceasefire and they left. It's | :08:48. | :08:52. | |
are the template. Well, that's a victory for everybody in that sense, | :08:53. | :08:58. | |
we now have a cessation of hostility. You think it's a victory | :08:59. | :09:02. | |
for everyone then? The war coming to an end, which it has done now, it | :09:03. | :09:08. | |
can restart, but the fact it's stopped is enormous benefit. And the | :09:09. | :09:12. | |
fact that there is now a peace process happening and the two sides | :09:13. | :09:17. | |
are beginning to start those negotiations, that's a positive for | :09:18. | :09:21. | |
everybody. Do you think the West owes Russia on this? Do you think | :09:22. | :09:28. | |
there's a sense of gratitude? If everyone had been putting their | :09:29. | :09:33. | |
national priorities to one side and all the states in the region and all | :09:34. | :09:38. | |
the powers, the West and the Russians, have been putting the | :09:39. | :09:41. | |
common interest at the top of the agenda, we'd be a lot further | :09:42. | :09:45. | |
forward than we are now. However, we've got to a place where there's | :09:46. | :09:49. | |
now a cessation of hostilities. My view is that it's quite important to | :09:50. | :09:55. | |
get the focus of the Syrian-Arab army and Free Syrian Army not | :09:56. | :10:00. | |
glouring at each other whilst peace negotiations take place. But let's | :10:01. | :10:05. | |
engage them in taking the territory back from Isil and they can begin | :10:06. | :10:11. | |
jointly a narrative of Syria re-establishing control from the | :10:12. | :10:15. | |
jihadist extremists. Do you think Putin has hit in at all to the Isis | :10:16. | :10:22. | |
strength? I think, first of all, Russia has been integral into the | :10:23. | :10:27. | |
process of moving the cessation of violence along. It's been on | :10:28. | :10:32. | |
Russia's terms. That's the difficulty for the West. It is about | :10:33. | :10:35. | |
putting national interests aside. But Russia hasn't in the same way | :10:36. | :10:39. | |
it's advocating everyone else should. It went in under the pretext | :10:40. | :10:45. | |
of saying it was targeting Isis. It has targeted certain Isis strong | :10:46. | :10:52. | |
holds. It has targeted alfuss a, but it has -- al-Nusra, but it has | :10:53. | :10:56. | |
targeted opposition broadly. What does Britain do now then? Our policy | :10:57. | :11:00. | |
was, frankly, unclear from the start. We encouraged the rebellion | :11:01. | :11:06. | |
against Assad at the beginning. Then when the rebellion actually really | :11:07. | :11:11. | |
took light, we then didn't weigh in with weapons and the kind of support | :11:12. | :11:17. | |
- We were too slow? The issue is whether we were ever prepared to do | :11:18. | :11:21. | |
that in the first place. I don't think we should have been or would | :11:22. | :11:24. | |
have been. We weren't, as it turned out. The consequence was we lured, | :11:25. | :11:32. | |
in that sense, the people represented by the now Free Syrian | :11:33. | :11:37. | |
Army onto the punch. Assad and the people are fighting for their lives | :11:38. | :11:42. | |
and they've fought brutally to survive against the threat they see | :11:43. | :11:45. | |
coming their way. Part of this is our responsibility. Sarah, do you | :11:46. | :11:54. | |
see a window in here for Russia to re-enter, if Bashar al-Assad doesn't | :11:55. | :11:58. | |
do what he wants? Absolutely. They say they will maintain their bases | :11:59. | :12:04. | |
in Syria. I think that is the re-entry if they need it. Is that a | :12:05. | :12:09. | |
veiled threat or a support issue? It's a mixture of both. Russia's | :12:10. | :12:14. | |
doing this to try and use its position to pressure Assad to | :12:15. | :12:19. | |
negotiate, be constructive. Russia requested he be constructive at the | :12:20. | :12:22. | |
negotiations. Today we saw the Syrian government isn't be | :12:23. | :12:25. | |
constructive on this one sticking point. In some ways, it is useful | :12:26. | :12:29. | |
for the process, particularly for the West. It's something the West | :12:30. | :12:32. | |
can't leverage. Thank you very much. Syria, of course, has not | :12:33. | :12:36. | |
contained its crisis within the country or even | :12:37. | :12:38. | |
within the Middle East. Today, the starkest visual reminder | :12:39. | :12:40. | |
of how that civil war has shifted an entire population, | :12:41. | :12:43. | |
refugees and migrants wading through the freezing waters | :12:44. | :12:46. | |
of a Greek river to cross the border with Macedonia, after authorities | :12:47. | :12:49. | |
there have forbidden their entry. Many - some with toddlers - | :12:50. | :12:51. | |
had marched for hours along muddy paths to enter the swollen river | :12:52. | :12:54. | |
in a bid to get around One photographer, who witnessed | :12:55. | :12:59. | |
the exodus, suggested as many Well, this evening, I spoke | :13:00. | :13:05. | |
to the Dutch Foreign Minister, Holland currently has | :13:06. | :13:10. | |
the presidency of the EU Council. I asked him what Europe's response | :13:11. | :13:15. | |
to the crisis should be. The imperative is | :13:16. | :13:22. | |
first and foremost... And that's why I know that the Greek | :13:23. | :13:30. | |
government is together with the Macedonians trying to find | :13:31. | :13:33. | |
a solution and if people actually go to the possibility | :13:34. | :13:36. | |
for camps in Greece. But they are leaving | :13:37. | :13:38. | |
those camps, the camps aren't leaving, people | :13:39. | :13:40. | |
want to leave the camps. Yes, and that's why it's | :13:41. | :13:42. | |
so important that this system we have right now is stopped | :13:43. | :13:46. | |
and we go to a system of voluntary relocation, that is the only | :13:47. | :13:50. | |
way to make this dismal Just explain, is it | :13:51. | :13:52. | |
wrong to see Slovenia I don't think it's a matter | :13:53. | :13:58. | |
of right and wrong and these countries have obligations | :13:59. | :14:05. | |
under international law, in the context of international | :14:06. | :14:08. | |
humanitarian law. It's fairly clear that | :14:09. | :14:10. | |
people don't want to stay in those countries, | :14:11. | :14:14. | |
they want to go to destinations like Germany, Sweden, | :14:15. | :14:16. | |
the Netherlands. We have seen that | :14:17. | :14:19. | |
that route in itself leads to an endless flow | :14:20. | :14:22. | |
which is not controllable. Which basically leads to this | :14:23. | :14:25. | |
enormous sense that the European population feels it | :14:26. | :14:28. | |
is not under control. But a very clear signal has two B, | :14:29. | :14:32. | |
do they shut the Borders and stop -- to be, do they shut those borders | :14:33. | :14:41. | |
and stop the trafficking, stop the roots and take the pain or keep the | :14:42. | :14:49. | |
borders open? The way we have seen the countries of Austria and others | :14:50. | :14:53. | |
carrying out the so-called Schengen Agreement, that doesn't work. We | :14:54. | :14:57. | |
have to work with external borders of the Schengen Agreement and | :14:58. | :15:02. | |
voluntary resettlement in Europe. The present system doesn't work. | :15:03. | :15:05. | |
Forgive me but Holland can take the lead, | :15:06. | :15:07. | |
you have the Council Presidency, isn't it | :15:08. | :15:09. | |
time to stop saying, we don't know if it is right | :15:10. | :15:12. | |
or wrong and say, we know that this is right and that's | :15:13. | :15:15. | |
what's going wrong at the moment, there is no leadership at all. | :15:16. | :15:19. | |
Well, I think if I may contradict you, I agree | :15:20. | :15:23. | |
with you and being in this position of trying to find consensus | :15:24. | :15:27. | |
among 28 countries of which some are not taking any migrants at all, | :15:28. | :15:35. | |
or not taking Muslims and others are very hospitable and receive | :15:36. | :15:37. | |
It is our role to get the 28 countries together and we can be | :15:38. | :15:48. | |
cynical about it but now with the plan that has finally | :15:49. | :15:52. | |
worked out on the responsibility of Greece and the Balkan countries | :15:53. | :15:54. | |
but also countries like Germany and the Netherlands, | :15:55. | :15:56. | |
we are working towards a system that makes much more sense. | :15:57. | :15:59. | |
Tell me how the Dutch government views the British question of EU | :16:00. | :16:02. | |
We are pleased that under our presidency and with the negotiations | :16:03. | :16:14. | |
at least there has been made a deal and I think it is in the interests | :16:15. | :16:18. | |
of all of the European countries, which takes seriously the concerns | :16:19. | :16:20. | |
Are plans being made in the case of a Brexit? | :16:21. | :16:26. | |
Anybody who tells you they know what will happen knows more | :16:27. | :16:29. | |
Everything has to be renegotiated between the UK | :16:30. | :16:34. | |
and the European Union. | :16:35. | :16:36. | |
On the basis of unanimity in the rest of Europe | :16:37. | :16:38. | |
But it's up to the British people to decide. | :16:39. | :16:45. | |
Do you think a Brexit would harm the body | :16:46. | :16:47. | |
I know that it is in our interests at the | :16:48. | :17:00. | |
We are living in a world which is unstable, | :17:01. | :17:04. | |
in which we have a lot of competition, internationally, | :17:05. | :17:06. | |
Of course Europe will survive after a Brexit. | :17:07. | :17:12. | |
But it is a loss to Europe if it would happen, | :17:13. | :17:14. | |
For some people, George Osborne represents everything that's | :17:15. | :17:21. | |
He's rich, privileged and never had a proper job outside Westminster. | :17:22. | :17:29. | |
He's also, say his critics, overly fond of minutely strategising | :17:30. | :17:31. | |
the political embarrassment of his enemies. | :17:32. | :17:33. | |
But to his fans, he's responsible for many of this Government's | :17:34. | :17:36. | |
proudest achievements and masterminded the Conservatives' | :17:37. | :17:37. | |
On Wednesday, he will deliver his eighth Budget, | :17:38. | :17:43. | |
which if the EU referendum goes against him, could prove | :17:44. | :17:46. | |
So what do we know about George Osborne? | :17:47. | :17:48. | |
For someone who has been in the job for so long, George Osborne is | :17:49. | :18:01. | |
surrounded by a surprising amount of uncertainty. He carries it around | :18:02. | :18:06. | |
with him like an ever present Budget box. For a start the economic signs | :18:07. | :18:13. | |
are not good. He is also constrained by the politics of the referendum. | :18:14. | :18:17. | |
Then there is his own future and what happens when his friend and | :18:18. | :18:21. | |
partner David Cameron steps down from the premiership? My view is | :18:22. | :18:25. | |
that if David Cameron said he was going to be Prime Minister for | :18:26. | :18:29. | |
another five years the happiest person would be George Osborne | :18:30. | :18:33. | |
because he believes David Cameron does the job very well and while | :18:34. | :18:37. | |
David Cameron is in power George Osborne has a share and he is | :18:38. | :18:40. | |
pragmatic enough to know that that is valuable to him. As one of the | :18:41. | :18:46. | |
architects of a surprise election victory George Osborne might now | :18:47. | :18:52. | |
have expected to be basking in the appreciation of a grateful party, | :18:53. | :18:55. | |
however that is not how politics works. Some of his MPs are a little | :18:56. | :19:00. | |
wary of George Osborne, others are suspicious regarding him as perhaps | :19:01. | :19:04. | |
not even a proper conservative at all. His pet project, HS2, certainly | :19:05. | :19:14. | |
isn't an obviously conservative one, costing ?50 billion and ripping | :19:15. | :19:17. | |
through the Tory shires in the process. Nor is raising the minimum | :19:18. | :19:23. | |
wage. There are other criticisms too, bubbling up all too readily | :19:24. | :19:29. | |
from Conservative MPs, he is too fond of political intrigue and | :19:30. | :19:32. | |
calculation. George Osborne has certainly been mastering the trade | :19:33. | :19:36. | |
of politics his entire adult life, in every office he has worked, he | :19:37. | :19:41. | |
could clearly hear Big Ben through an open window. IOS thought he | :19:42. | :19:46. | |
should do something other than politics before the House of Commons | :19:47. | :19:49. | |
but he is enormously thoughtful and a good tactical judge. If you talk | :19:50. | :19:58. | |
to George the -- he seldom says something that isn't worth listening | :19:59. | :20:03. | |
to. The Conservative Party were deep into a decade-long nervous breakdown | :20:04. | :20:07. | |
over Europe and an attempt to reboot the squabbling party John Major | :20:08. | :20:13. | |
appointed the affable but accident prone Jeremy Handley. As the party | :20:14. | :20:21. | |
chairman. A new researcher, fresh out of Oxford. The day after George | :20:22. | :20:25. | |
Osborne was filmed in front of Central office the parties fortune | :20:26. | :20:32. | |
nosedived, Labour elected a charismatic leader and Osborne was | :20:33. | :20:35. | |
dispatched to Blackpool to observe in the flesh this mortal threat to | :20:36. | :20:41. | |
the Conservatives' chances of holding onto power. In 1994 and a | :20:42. | :20:46. | |
Labour Party conference George was there for the Conservatives and I | :20:47. | :20:49. | |
was therefore a think tank and we were sat next to each other when | :20:50. | :20:55. | |
Tony Blair made his great speech, abolishing Klaus 4. Afterwards we | :20:56. | :20:59. | |
went for a drink and talked about what we saw and agreed that the | :21:00. | :21:02. | |
Conservative Party would never get back into power until it coped with | :21:03. | :21:06. | |
the fact that Tony Blair was serious about making Labour new Labour. Do | :21:07. | :21:13. | |
you still think the joke is a good idea on the first page? Definitely. | :21:14. | :21:18. | |
George Osborne was highly valued as a speech writer. His seat in | :21:19. | :21:23. | |
Parliament meant he could give as well as write speeches and it open | :21:24. | :21:29. | |
up the higher rungs of politics. After the election defeat Michael | :21:30. | :21:32. | |
Howard gave him an extraordinary promotion to Shadow Chancellor when | :21:33. | :21:38. | |
he was still only 33. There is a bit of a gamble in George, you know, he | :21:39. | :21:46. | |
is a relation of Aspinall. And he took the view that up against the | :21:47. | :21:51. | |
Colossus of Gordon Brown, as Chancellor of the Exchequer, a | :21:52. | :21:57. | |
formidable task. Gordon Brown had to be lucky every time and he only had | :21:58. | :22:02. | |
to be lucky once. Osborne and Cameron were the crucial partnership | :22:03. | :22:06. | |
at the top of the Conservative Party, for political journalists the | :22:07. | :22:13. | |
comparisons were too inviting. The papers will say, have the | :22:14. | :22:16. | |
Conservatives found their own brown and Blair? How much I will wait on | :22:17. | :22:20. | |
you and George Osborne is that? It is probably fatal! They have always | :22:21. | :22:25. | |
worked closely and effectively and I think that is one of their | :22:26. | :22:29. | |
strengths, collectively, as a partnership. Unlike Brown and Blair | :22:30. | :22:36. | |
there was never any doubt who George Osborne thought would make the | :22:37. | :22:41. | |
better leader, and it was George Osborne who ran the Cameron | :22:42. | :22:46. | |
leadership campaign on a Blair like modernising ticket. At the Cameron | :22:47. | :22:51. | |
victory parade in December 2005 I spotted a jubilant George Osborne in | :22:52. | :22:56. | |
the crowd. It's great, when we started in July I don't think we | :22:57. | :22:59. | |
could have predicted such a great margin. To start with Osborne | :23:00. | :23:04. | |
promised to match Labour spending plans but as the world economy began | :23:05. | :23:08. | |
unravelling he had to ditch the policy in a hurry. In an attempt to | :23:09. | :23:12. | |
understand what was going on he travelled to New York to meet big | :23:13. | :23:16. | |
players of global finance face-to-face and I went with him to | :23:17. | :23:21. | |
see how every meeting reinforced his conviction that the British economy | :23:22. | :23:24. | |
was heading for a potentially catastrophic crash. What is very | :23:25. | :23:29. | |
clear is that Britain is ill-prepared for this financial | :23:30. | :23:32. | |
turmoil and its impact on the economy later this year. George | :23:33. | :23:37. | |
Osborne became the austerities Chancellor that we know today, but | :23:38. | :23:41. | |
he has never delivered his deficit reduction promises on time. The | :23:42. | :23:46. | |
journey between number 11 Downing St and number ten is just a few yards | :23:47. | :23:54. | |
but in politics it is capable of consuming careers. His critics say | :23:55. | :23:58. | |
that he is obsessed with the transition and everything he does is | :23:59. | :24:02. | |
couched in those terms but not so say his friends, if that was really | :24:03. | :24:07. | |
is obsession he would have given up being Chancellor when the | :24:08. | :24:11. | |
opportunity was presented to him after the last election. You take | :24:12. | :24:14. | |
the success of the election and you park it in the hope to become leader | :24:15. | :24:18. | |
of the party because you have not done anything controversial in the | :24:19. | :24:23. | |
intervening period. The chances were the economy would not do well and | :24:24. | :24:27. | |
you take risks and you do things, and that has happened. His decision | :24:28. | :24:31. | |
was that he would be wasting potentially four years as a guide of | :24:32. | :24:38. | |
the government, it is cautious but also a waste of the office. This | :24:39. | :24:41. | |
week 's budget doesn't look like one where George Osborne will be able to | :24:42. | :24:48. | |
do much, his radical pension reforms were dropped amid concern about | :24:49. | :24:52. | |
angering swing voters and Conservative MPs in the run-up to | :24:53. | :24:55. | |
the EU referendum. And depending on how the referendum goes, this budget | :24:56. | :25:00. | |
could conceivably be George Osborne's last. | :25:01. | :25:06. | |
Within the next 48 hours, Donald Trump may emerge | :25:07. | :25:08. | |
as the Republican presidential candidate. | :25:09. | :25:09. | |
This, after a weekend in which the frontrunner had | :25:10. | :25:11. | |
to cancel several rallies, after violence broke out - | :25:12. | :25:13. | |
scenes of chaos that don't appear to have dented his popularity. | :25:14. | :25:16. | |
But tonight - on the eve of the next big electoral test - | :25:17. | :25:19. | |
we ask about the policies of the other candidates. | :25:20. | :25:21. | |
Could it be that he is the least conservative amongst them? | :25:22. | :25:30. | |
We'll speak to George Bush's speechwriter, David Frum, | :25:31. | :25:33. | |
who joins us live from Florida, tomorrow's biggest electoral | :25:34. | :25:37. | |
Go back to Africa! This may be seen as the low point of the 2016 | :25:38. | :26:08. | |
election campaign but then again it may not, we still have a long way to | :26:09. | :26:12. | |
go. Donald Trump doesn't seem to mind the violence at his own | :26:13. | :26:19. | |
rallies. The guards are very gentle with him, he is smiling and | :26:20. | :26:24. | |
laughing, I would like to punch him in the face, I tell you. What is it | :26:25. | :26:30. | |
doing to his popularity? Well, his poll ratings seems to be improving | :26:31. | :26:34. | |
on the back of all of this, doubling his lead over Marco Rubio. In | :26:35. | :26:41. | |
Rubio's home state of Florida, the biggest electoral jewel of the race | :26:42. | :26:45. | |
tomorrow. And he is strong everywhere else except Ohio, John | :26:46. | :26:51. | |
Kasich's home state. Several of them are winner takes all, if as the | :26:52. | :26:56. | |
polls predict he comes first he lands a significant number of | :26:57. | :27:00. | |
delegates and adds them to his tally. Thank you, everybody. Even at | :27:01. | :27:06. | |
this stage with Trump potentially hours away from securing the | :27:07. | :27:10. | |
Republican presidential nomination, many feel they don't really know | :27:11. | :27:14. | |
what policies the billionaire would espouse, he has been accused of | :27:15. | :27:17. | |
flip-flopping. By the other candidates. Despite the eyebrow | :27:18. | :27:24. | |
raising immigration talk it is easy to argue that the others lie to the | :27:25. | :27:28. | |
right. Ted Cruz is an ideologue who wants to breath at the Iran deal, | :27:29. | :27:34. | |
and end gay marriage and abortion rights and do away with gun control. | :27:35. | :27:39. | |
Marco Rubio is often betrayed as the moderate, but sounds identical to | :27:40. | :27:45. | |
Ted Cruz on the stump. He wants to tear up diplomatic softening to Cuba | :27:46. | :27:49. | |
as well as the Iran deal and votes against abortion even in cases of | :27:50. | :27:56. | |
rape. Then there is John Kasich, sometimes betrayed as the | :27:57. | :27:58. | |
bleeding-heart candidate. Take a closer look at his voting, far to | :27:59. | :28:05. | |
the right on reproductive rights. They are all against Obama care, of | :28:06. | :28:10. | |
course. Donald Trump for all of the bluster may be the least | :28:11. | :28:13. | |
conservative of the candidates, America just has to decide whether | :28:14. | :28:17. | |
that is a good or bad thing. Fascinating. Joining me now is David | :28:18. | :28:21. | |
Frum. and from Florida, that key swing | :28:22. | :28:25. | |
state, writer and commentator, Great to have you here. I'm not sure | :28:26. | :28:33. | |
how Gaelic you out of the country at a time like this, David. -- I'm not | :28:34. | :28:39. | |
sure how they allowed you out. If Donald Trump loses Ohio even if he | :28:40. | :28:44. | |
wins Florida the contest is open. He will obviously have a tremendous | :28:45. | :28:49. | |
gust of wind at his back but it remains mathematically possible if | :28:50. | :28:53. | |
he loses Ohio that he would be short of an outright majority of | :28:54. | :28:56. | |
Republican delegates and at the convention anything can happen | :28:57. | :28:59. | |
because the delegates will be there and won't want to nominate him if | :29:00. | :29:03. | |
they could avoid it. Isn't it odd that there isn't a second-place | :29:04. | :29:07. | |
candidate? One week we thought it was Marco Rubio, the other Ted Cruz. | :29:08. | :29:13. | |
If there was a broken convention it would not necessarily be Ted Cruz | :29:14. | :29:18. | |
but something different? Ted Cruz is a strong second-place candidate but | :29:19. | :29:22. | |
you are right, evil need to understand this, when you see the | :29:23. | :29:27. | |
numbers of delegates that does not refer to actual people but slots. -- | :29:28. | :29:31. | |
people need to understand this. The power to appoint people. Actual | :29:32. | :29:36. | |
delegates are selected later usually by state parties and they are not | :29:37. | :29:39. | |
necessarily beholden to Donald Trump, they make the party go, local | :29:40. | :29:44. | |
activists and donors and they have different views about the future of | :29:45. | :29:48. | |
the party from less committed people, less committed Republican | :29:49. | :29:54. | |
formatter casting votes for Donald Trump. We have talked about the | :29:55. | :29:59. | |
anger and emotion of this campaign, how do you define a trump voter? | :30:00. | :30:05. | |
Well, according to the polls, the Trump voter is white, less educated, | :30:06. | :30:12. | |
and angry. It's an anger that has been fed for the last ten or 20 | :30:13. | :30:18. | |
years from right-wing talk radio but also from left-wing demagogues, as | :30:19. | :30:27. | |
you mentioned in the piece before. He is more moderate than the other | :30:28. | :30:31. | |
Republican candidates, and there is an awful lot that would appeal to | :30:32. | :30:36. | |
Democrats. The part that appeals to Conservative working-class voters is | :30:37. | :30:42. | |
quite frankly the racial part, the anger at Muslims, Mexicans, and so | :30:43. | :30:44. | |
on. You once called Trump lizard brained | :30:45. | :30:56. | |
- You have it wrong, no. Tell me. I said that Trump was acting out of | :30:57. | :31:02. | |
his lizard brain. I'm sorry, I can hear myself talking. I said that | :31:03. | :31:09. | |
Trump was acting out of his lizard brain. Each of us has a lizard brain | :31:10. | :31:15. | |
at the base of our skull that controls reflective actions like | :31:16. | :31:20. | |
fight-or-flight, hunger and so on. He was, he hasn't been dealing and | :31:21. | :31:25. | |
appealing to people on the basis of thought or reason. He's been | :31:26. | :31:31. | |
appealing to people on the basis of their fears, the emotions and | :31:32. | :31:34. | |
reactions that come out of their lizard brains. David, one of the | :31:35. | :31:39. | |
reasons I introduced you at the beginning as a speech writer for | :31:40. | :31:44. | |
George Bush, because in a sense whatever candidate emerges is a | :31:45. | :31:48. | |
product of the last one. Do you think Trump is a product of Obama? | :31:49. | :31:56. | |
No Trump is a product of Bush. I don't think Freudian psychoanalysis | :31:57. | :32:00. | |
is the way to approach actual people, but as a literary advice | :32:01. | :32:06. | |
it's very powerful. Your viewers who remember, the theory was the patient | :32:07. | :32:10. | |
suffered a trauma. The patient dealt with the trauma through repression, | :32:11. | :32:16. | |
but the repressed always returns and expresses itself in hysterical | :32:17. | :32:19. | |
behaviour. Who's got the mental illness? The Bush years were the | :32:20. | :32:24. | |
trauma of the Republican Party. We have not been able to talk candidly | :32:25. | :32:30. | |
about what went right and wrong. We have a set of responses - he kept us | :32:31. | :32:35. | |
safe. What do we mean? How do we feel about Iraq and Katrina and how | :32:36. | :32:42. | |
do we feel about Medicaire? There have been a stereotype list of | :32:43. | :32:45. | |
things to say. I like everything about George W Bush except he spent | :32:46. | :32:53. | |
too much at home. So, in the vacancy created by this inability to talk, | :32:54. | :32:59. | |
Jeb Bush thought, maybe the party is ready for another Bush, a third | :33:00. | :33:03. | |
Bush. This enormous pile of money was gathered and this left and least | :33:04. | :33:08. | |
articulate of all the Bushes set forward and it was catastrophe. | :33:09. | :33:15. | |
Trump has stepped into the post-Jeb environment with, in which all the | :33:16. | :33:23. | |
establishment money - So this is a direct failing of the Republican | :33:24. | :33:25. | |
Party to get to grips with what happened to it? Donald Trump, | :33:26. | :33:30. | |
somebody as obviously fraudulent as Donald Trump, could not have a | :33:31. | :33:33. | |
political career in a party that was well. This is not a well party. | :33:34. | :33:37. | |
That's why there's an opportunity for him. The interesting thing, | :33:38. | :33:41. | |
perhaps, is we've got this extraordinary situation where a lot | :33:42. | :33:46. | |
of voters don't like the candidate of their own party naturally. Will | :33:47. | :33:52. | |
we see cross-dressing here, the Democrats that can't bear Hilary and | :33:53. | :33:56. | |
the Republicans that can't bear Trump? Yes, I do. Can I say about | :33:57. | :34:02. | |
David Frum, over the years, he has been very courageous, one of the few | :34:03. | :34:05. | |
Republicans who have been willing to speak the truth about the problems | :34:06. | :34:10. | |
in that party. Right now, I'd like to speak some truth about some | :34:11. | :34:15. | |
problems in the Democratic Party. These left-wing protesters, who are | :34:16. | :34:20. | |
going to Trump rallies and causing this trouble are only strengthening | :34:21. | :34:25. | |
Donald Trump. He is the master of disaster. As long as the country | :34:26. | :34:33. | |
seems chaotic and anarchic, he will benefit. I believe that no matter | :34:34. | :34:36. | |
what the polls are showing right now, he has a very strong chance | :34:37. | :34:41. | |
against Hillary Clinton next fall, which should terrify all of us. So | :34:42. | :34:46. | |
your message to those protesters would be - don't protest? Stay home. | :34:47. | :34:53. | |
Go door to door, knock on doors and talk to people. Be positive. Be | :34:54. | :35:00. | |
creative. Every time - I've been to these Trump rallies and the crowd | :35:01. | :35:08. | |
loves it when, you know, some poor left-winger starts screaming and | :35:09. | :35:13. | |
Trump says, "Get them out of here!" Have we reached the low point of | :35:14. | :35:20. | |
this campaign? Oh, no! Right. Not as long as Donald Trump is breathing. | :35:21. | :35:25. | |
It's going to get lower. Joe's point about staying home, one of the | :35:26. | :35:29. | |
sicknesses of American politics, and one of the sicknesses with Donald | :35:30. | :35:33. | |
Trump is the break down in institutions. If you feel that the | :35:34. | :35:37. | |
idea, this is a Facebook era idea, if you feel strongly about something | :35:38. | :35:40. | |
what you do is go somewhere and express your indig nation. If you | :35:41. | :35:45. | |
feel strongly about something, get 25 of your friends registered to | :35:46. | :35:50. | |
vote. Drive people to the polls. Raise money for the candidate of | :35:51. | :35:58. | |
your choice. Those are pro-institutional actions. One of | :35:59. | :36:01. | |
the things that has enabled the Trumps is every time we saw, we have | :36:02. | :36:05. | |
a reform, all of our reforms are based on weakening and degrading our | :36:06. | :36:09. | |
institutions to make it more impossible for parties not to do | :36:10. | :36:13. | |
self-destructive things. I could go on for another three hours, thanks | :36:14. | :36:15. | |
very much. In the British prison system, | :36:16. | :36:16. | |
a child murderer is the lowest But what if there hasn't | :36:17. | :36:19. | |
been a killing at all, but the child died of an accident | :36:20. | :36:24. | |
or by natural causes? The question is important | :36:25. | :36:26. | |
because one of Britain's leading defence experts in the hotly | :36:27. | :36:28. | |
contested area of shaken baby syndrome has been severely | :36:29. | :36:31. | |
criticised by the doctors' A medical practitioners tribunal | :36:32. | :36:33. | |
ruled on Friday that Dr Waney Squier gave misleading and dishonest | :36:34. | :36:39. | |
evidence, when she acted as an expert witness in six cases | :36:40. | :36:42. | |
involving parents accused of harming One of the country's very | :36:43. | :36:45. | |
few neuropathologists, she may now be barred | :36:46. | :36:49. | |
from practising. But her defenders call what she's | :36:50. | :36:51. | |
experienced a witch hunt. Pathologist Waney Squire has had the | :36:52. | :37:04. | |
book thrown at her, a General Medical Council panel, a retired | :37:05. | :37:10. | |
Wing Commander, former Merseyside copper, and retired geriatric | :37:11. | :37:13. | |
psychiatrist found her evidence to be outrageous and untruthful, that | :37:14. | :37:18. | |
she had misrepresented and cherry picked and said, "You must have real | :37:19. | :37:26. | |
aislesed you were being dishonest." Either Waney Squire is a bad Doctor | :37:27. | :37:30. | |
Who faces being struck off for lying to the courts, or she's a Galileo | :37:31. | :37:36. | |
for the 21st century, the victim of a great scientific injustice. In | :37:37. | :37:42. | |
plain English, are you saying that shaken baby syndrome is rubbish? Ah, | :37:43. | :37:48. | |
yes, I am. And I think we've known that from the very outset. But there | :37:49. | :37:54. | |
are many doctors, senior doctors, who gave evidence against you, who | :37:55. | :37:57. | |
don't agree with that at all. That's correct. I've looked in great detail | :37:58. | :38:03. | |
at the literature on shaken baby syndrome. I've gone through the | :38:04. | :38:07. | |
whole history and read as much as I can. I have found nothing which | :38:08. | :38:12. | |
satisfies me that there's any scientific foundation for it. | :38:13. | :38:15. | |
They're calling you a liar effectively. They are. And what's | :38:16. | :38:19. | |
your reaction to that? As I say, I gave my evidence to the best of my | :38:20. | :38:24. | |
ability. I tried to be as truthful and honest as this work demands. | :38:25. | :38:27. | |
It's serious work and I take it seriously. Shaken baby syndrome is | :38:28. | :38:35. | |
hotly disputed. Its supporters believe swelling of the brain, | :38:36. | :38:38. | |
bleeding over the surface of the brain and in the eyes must have been | :38:39. | :38:43. | |
caused by the baby being vie lently shaken. The syndrome's critics doubt | :38:44. | :38:54. | |
it exists. Including a former defence lawyer Campbell Malon. | :38:55. | :38:57. | |
Shaken baby syndrome is a fact - true or false? I'm not a scientist. | :38:58. | :39:05. | |
But the Court of Appeal held in 2005 that shaken baby syndrome was a | :39:06. | :39:09. | |
hypothesis, was a theory, not a fact. In 2007, Newsnight told the | :39:10. | :39:20. | |
story of Susan Holdsworth. Dr Squire, one of the country's few | :39:21. | :39:27. | |
neuropangologists was asked to examine the evidence against her. | :39:28. | :39:32. | |
The original trial had heard that Suzanne must have slammed Kyle | :39:33. | :39:36. | |
against a banister. Suzanne said he suffered a fit. Patients who have | :39:37. | :39:40. | |
epilepsy have scars in their brain and they act as a focus for the | :39:41. | :39:46. | |
epileptic activity. Kyle had two abnormalities in the brain that | :39:47. | :39:52. | |
would predispose him to seizures. And seizures can kill. As a result | :39:53. | :40:01. | |
of the evidence, Susan Holds worth appealed and was found not guilty at | :40:02. | :40:06. | |
retrial. I asked what she thought of the tribunal's verdict? I am | :40:07. | :40:14. | |
disgusted in it. If it weren't for Waney Squires, I don't think I'd be | :40:15. | :40:21. | |
here where I am now. We turned to Waney Squires for help. If she's not | :40:22. | :40:28. | |
here any more, who, like people like me who are wrongly convicted, who | :40:29. | :40:31. | |
are they going to turn to? The question at the heart of this | :40:32. | :40:35. | |
argument is not who killed this baby, but was there a crime? As far | :40:36. | :40:42. | |
as shaken baby syndrome is concerned Dr Squire has been a thorn in the | :40:43. | :40:46. | |
side of the medical establishment, the Crown Prosecution Service and | :40:47. | :40:51. | |
the Metropolitan Police. The Met's child abuse unit initiated the case | :40:52. | :40:55. | |
against Dr Squire. In their view they had to. Child protection is | :40:56. | :41:01. | |
paramount. My view is that having lost the scientific argument, having | :41:02. | :41:04. | |
lost the legal argument, what they've done is to try and take the | :41:05. | :41:12. | |
experts on an individual basis out of the argument. It seems to me that | :41:13. | :41:18. | |
we, in the 21st century, have gone back to the days of the inquisition. | :41:19. | :41:23. | |
In the future, when someone is accused of shaking a baby to death, | :41:24. | :41:26. | |
on the science, who will defend them? I think it's a deeply | :41:27. | :41:34. | |
troubling time because this is going to inhibit even further anybody who | :41:35. | :41:38. | |
understands the science and who has a valid opinion to offer from | :41:39. | :41:42. | |
stepping forward, for fear of also facing this kind of hearing. Dr | :41:43. | :41:48. | |
Squire faces being struck off later this month. Despite all our | :41:49. | :41:54. | |
scientific advances, the tragedy of unexplained invanity death stays | :41:55. | :42:01. | |
with us. For Susan Holdsworth it isn't an academic issue. Without Dr | :42:02. | :42:04. | |
Squire, she fears she might still be in prison. | :42:05. | :42:15. | |
I felt like I had won the lottery. It was amazing, somebody what I | :42:16. | :42:26. | |
never thought I would do. So if it wasn't like Waney Squires, that | :42:27. | :42:35. | |
people like me could be still in prison. O | :42:36. | :42:41. | |
Evan's here tomorrow. Until then, good night. | :42:42. | :42:48. |