06/05/2016 Newsnight

It is absolutely great to be here. We hung on and we got support in a

We hung on and we got support in a lot of places.

The parties each have their triumphs.

But they also have their tribulations.

We'll try to make sense of the complicated map

These results suggest that we are now in an era where no

Labour and Conservative, the two big national parties,

And what does the defeat of Zac Goldsmith imply

It is amazing that, of all people, it is Zac Goldsmith who ends up,

if you like, bringing back the Nasty Party label to the

In Scotland The SNP won an historic third term

in the Scottish parliament, but not a majority, in an election

We will govern with conviction, with ambition and with determination,

but also with humility and a willingness to

But the big story was the Conservative comeback,

No, I don't have any particular party allegiance but this time

I'll be discussing why voters trust the Tories more than

And Artsnight returns with David Baddiel asking

if the Great Man theory of history has any relevance today.

There is no longer a pool of adoration waiting to seize on this

There are many more writers than there used to be.

Results day and more evidence of the new kaleidoscope politics

that has replaced the old two-party system in Britain.

It's not just that we have different winners in different

parts of the country, we have different contests as well.

While the SNP got Scotland, Labour got Wales and London,

and the Tories did OK'ish in the rest of England,

Plaid Cymru making progress, Ukip getting over 10%

of the British vote, and even the Lib Dems

stubbornly refusing to die, in fact getting 15% of the projected

The main preoccupation today has been to ask,

as we always do, what does it mean for the next general election?

Can Labour win in 2020 or is it obvious the Conservatives will?

But right now it's not even clear what Labour and Conservative

Is Ruth Davidson's pro-EU Conservatism in Scotland

the same as Boris Johnson's brexit-leaning metropolitanism?

Is Sadiq Khan really a representative

It's a complex map - different colours, and different

And to help make sense of it, our political editor Nick Watt.

Nick, make sense of it. What today did provided us with a reminder that

we really live in the 30-something era of politics. The two main

parties were scrabbling around in the early 30%, but in the general

election it looks like the winner cannot get above the late 30s in a

percentage and the second party, Labour, is in the low 30s. Why is

that? They both face structural problems. Labour has the structural

problem of now not existing in Scotland and a problem in southern

England. The Conservatives have a problem in northern England and

London. That means neither of the parties is going to get into 40%, so

we will not see the politics that we grew up with, a dominant Margaret

Thatcher, a dominant Tony Blair. It is interesting, you were talking

about the kaleidoscope. We will find the kaleidoscope is shaken this

year, not today, but on the 23rd of June when we have that referendum.

That is the big picture. Let's focus on the stories people focus on these

days, what it means for the leaders of the two main parties. The Jeremy

Corbyn camp are saying they have seen of what they are calling a

pre-coup copout. They mean that they were expecting those who have

problems with Jeremy Corbyn's leadership would come out of the

trenches overnight, their would-be MPs we have not heard about saying,

it is time to think about his leadership, and they were expecting

the coup would be launched on the 24th of June after the referendum.

They are confident that is not going to happen. But what the critics are

saying is it is OK for the moment, but you have got a year. But we will

believe it when we see it. There is unease in the Conservative Party

over Zac Goldsmith's campaign. We decided to stand back and have a

look, what have we learned from these elections around the UK?

A balmy spring evening outside London city hall as the parties wait

for one of the final big results on the UK's attempt at a super Thursday

election. What can seasoned political observers take away from

these results? Labour is still in the game and a coup against Jeremy

Corbyn is off the table until after the EU referendum and probably

beyond. But these results suggest the parties have got a very long way

to go to show it is a potential government in waiting. But let's

have credit where credit is due. The leadership ran a very effective

operation to manage expectations over Labour's performance. For the

first time since 1910, they have come third in their traditional

stronghold in Scotland. When the seats change and the boundaries

changed at that the general election they will need to be 13% ahead in

the polls in England in order to win and this does not suggest this is

going to happen. Most leaders of the opposition when they start their job

and go into these elections gain hundreds of seats. This is the first

time in decades somebody has not achieved that. No conservative

colossus despite what those pictures of Dave and Barack Obama might

suggest. A poor showing in the southern shires in England will

cause disappointment in Number Ten, though Ruth Davidson's success in

Scotland suggest the Conservative and Unionist party is on its way

back to being the party of the whole union once again. The fact Unionist

party and the Conservatives gained seats in Scotland in quite a

significant fashion, taking them away from Labour, is very important

for the Conservatives who talk about being a real one nation Conservative

Party. The United Kingdom is just that little bit more secure. The SNP

failure to maintain its parliamentary majority means it will

be more difficult to ask for a second referendum after a Brexit

book, but the green success means there is a pro-independence majority

in Hollywood. Quite a tough campaign, but not too tough. Sadiq

Khan's campaign shows tactics must deal with facts and must not fear

into US style culture war. That is the lessons that Goldsmith is

tonight. Lynton Crosby is not invincible as an adviser to the

Conservative Party. He understands Middle England and that was his

point about their victory in the 2015 election. This suggests he does

not understand modern London. Ukip is back in business, its success in

Wales means it has a visible footprint in all three parts of

Great Britain. It is a bit of a mixed blessing for Nigel Farage who

sees his party slip into fourth place in the national vote share.

Unlikely political bedfellows. Jeremy Corbyn is delighted that

Jeremy Corbyn is safe, but so too is David Cameron who believes that

every day the Labour leader remains in office will really help his

successor as Tory leader when the next general election comes. Next

week, we will see the EU referendum campaign picked up speed again. That

is really an event that could reset British politics for a generation.

We'll focus on the Conservatives first.

A lot of controversy about the campaign in London.

Zac Goldsmith's sister, Jemima Khan, tweeted this: "Sad that

Zac's campaign did not reflect who I know him to be."

Sayeeda Warsi, former Tory Chairman tweeted,

campaign lost us the election, our reputation and credibility

Well, it was said to be a campaign by the playbook of Tory

It wasn't him in fact behind Zac, it was his company.

But in strange timing, he was knighted by the Queen today.

Earlier, I spoke to David Cameron's former right-hand man,

Steve Hilton, never one in the mould of Sir Lynton.

What did he make of the election of a muslim mayor in London?

I think it's really great news, frankly.

I think it is very powerful and positive message about London.

It was interesting, last week and the week before I have been over

on the east coast of America, in New York and Washington,

and it was really interesting how much interest there

Most of it was centred around the fact that this great

cosmopolitan city could potentially elect a Muslim Mayor.

You say all of that, a lot of people will say that

Zac Goldsmith's campaign was, if you like, expressing the very

opposite sentiments to the ones you have just expressed,

which was dog whistle, bringing, in quite subtle ways,

I don't know what your thoughts were about that campaign.

The overall impression I got from Zac's campaign was of a rather

old-fashioned and, frankly, uninspiring campaign.

I was surprised about that because Zac, who I know pretty well,

is actually a really interesting, thoughtful, somewhat

antiestablishment character in politics and he has got a very

interesting set of views of different kinds

And it seemed to me that none of that actually was

Which, to be honest, I found rather weird.

But what I would say is that, at the very least, it's rather

careless to allow your campaign to be characterised in that way and,

frankly, it's rather amazing that, of all people, it is Zac Goldsmith

who ends up, if you like, bringing back the Nasty Party label

You would think something like that can be used to re-toxify the Tories.

You were obviously involved there, trying to detoxify them back

I think that is certainly what people are saying.

As I say, I am not in a position to judge whether it is fair or not.

But, you know, I have been involved in campaigns and you have to be

careful to make sure that what you say and do cannot be

misrepresented in ways that are fundamentally unhelpful.

Of course your opponents are going to say things you don't

agree with and try and distort what you do and so on,

But I think that the way this particular accusation has

been allowed to stick - frankly, even if that is unfair -

shows that there is something there that at the very

And, I think, could be pretty damaging, yes.

I am sensing that you prefer something a little more positive

and maybe think that this negativity has shown its limits?

It seems to me that Zac's campaign was a real missed

opportunity because London, it feels to me, is the kind of place

where you could really do well with a more modern,

less partisan, more inspiring and optimistic kind of campaign,

given the kind of city it is and the fact that it is not

necessarily the case that you have got so many people

there who are dyed-in-the-world Labour or Conservative,

I think that, therefore, a fresh, modern campaign could really have

Well, let's talk to Matthew Hancock, Cabinet Office minister.

It is not official, but we know Sadiq Khan has won. Do you welcome

the fact that it is a great cosmopolitan city and it has a

Muslim Mayor? Yes in a way. I voted for Zac Goldsmith, I think he would

have been a better Mayor. He may well still be, we have not had the

official declaration! But I think the fact that London can have a

debate between two people of different religions reflecting the

fact that we have got a multireligious city is overall

positive for London. What did you think of the campaign? It has been

widely panned and now we know definitively it did not work. It was

criticised before, but now we know it did not work. I wonder whether

you think any lessons need to be taken from that? I think that is a

little unfair. I think the campaign had positive elements on housing and

transport and especially on the environment which Zac Goldsmith has

got a long history on and has been working on for many years. If you

look at the statistics we have seen so far, the proportion of the boat

that Zac got is very similar to the proportion we got in the general

election a year ago in London. I think there is a bigger question.

London has proved that at the general election last year that it

is more difficult for us than other parts of the country. If you look at

the rest of the country, we did pretty well in the English council

elections, we took seats and we got cancelled away from Labour in key

battle ground areas like Bury, in Lancashire, and Nuneaton. We all

remember in Nuneaton. And then of course Scotland, which is a positive

result for the Conservatives. In a word, are you satisfied with

the campaign or does the Tory Party need to learn lessons that did not

work in London, which is different from Nuneaton and Scotland? Clearly.

What I am saying is there is something about London that is

changing in a different way to the rest of the country. I think it is

unfair to pin that specifically on this campaign. There is a bigger

question. And that is clear from the fact that we did about as well in

London at the General Election last year... What lesson do you take from

the success of Ruth Davidson in Scotland? David Cameron implied if

you campaign moderately, you can get votes and that is a lesson he drew

from that, perhaps a failed criticism of Zac Goldsmith? I think

she is a wonderful politicians. She is a modern, compassionate

conservative. She is up meat and vibrant and is a potential for real

realignment of politics there. When you give the powers of tax and spend

to Scotland, instead of this Scottish debate being constantly

just about how you are going to spend the money that comes here,

instead it becomes about how much as well and should be put up taxes?

There is space for a centrist, sensible Conservative Party to make

the argument that has not been heard in Scotland for 30 years. Would be

nice if she was later -- leader of the Conservative Party overall? That

cannot happen, cannot? David Cameron has just had a pretty good set of

results. This is a new patchwork. We have a government that cannot get a

majority of 100, that they used to, and will have to U-turn on

everything. Today, another big U-turn on the academies programme. I

will not waste time trying to list the others. Amazing what this is

meaning? We can come back to that but I want to pick up on the

question, you said that no longer can we get the sort of majorities we

used to. Actually, one of the most significant results from tonight is

that because in Scotland the SNP have entrenched, they lost the

majority, and we came second above the Labour Party, it is almost

impossible for the Labour Party to win the next election without the

support of the SNP. And that is astonishing. That is no scare. That

is a fact and it was at the last election and it looks like from the

results tonight, it will be a fact at the next election. The Scottish

result in significant within Scotland, the Conservative Party

coming second, what it is also important for the next General

Election. Talking of skiers, eight police forces investigating

Conservative election expenses and they have an extension on the time

they are allowed to investigate this. Are you and the party scared

of the implications of that? Something like 27 MPs, the expenses

being investigated from last year? No, as far as I understand all of

the rules were followed and I'm sure the investigation will...

Administrative errors? There is an investigation and I will not get

into the details but as far as we know those rules were followed.

Thank you. Well, it is a feature of these

results that two of the politicians who stand tallest in the UK right

now, are from Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon and Ruth Davidson,

the scottish results producing Let's go to Edinburgh

for more on that. In the Scottish elections

it was the Union versus independence and that created not one,

not two, but three stories. The SNP won an unprecedented third

term with a result just short Ruth Davidson lead the Tories

back into contention after decades of decline

as the main opposition party, leading David Cameron to tweet

"she will stand up to the SNP and give Scotland

strong opposition." For Labour it was a disastrous

result, their worst in history. It's now a different political

dynamic in Scotland, one which Nicola Sturgeon recognised

when she said today she would aim The government I lead will be an

inclusive government. It will be firm on our determination to deliver

on the commitments we made to the Scottish people but it will also

reach out and seek to work with others across the Parliament to find

common ground and build consensus. So what were the voters

telling the politicians? I began the day in Glasgow,

now in constituency terms Glasgow's political history has been

turned upside down here. In the vast post-war

housing estates Labour Even a decade ago,

it was unthinkable that this constituency of Glasgow Pollok

would do anything other than elect a Labour MSP

with votes by the bucketload, but this is how much

things have changed. In 1999, in the first elections

to the Scottish Parliament, every single constituency MSP

in Glasgow was Labour. Last night, the voters of Pollock

helped ensure that every single So what contribution do the 16

and 17-year-olds make in Pollock as they become the first

under 18s to vote in People are saying now that in this

election it was still Yes, independence obviously matters

because it is a big issue. Especially since the referendum

and a result that a lot But it is not the only

issue that matters. It is not as if education

and taxation are not They say when you want a piece

of wisdom, ask a taxi driver. The question - when Labour was last

dominant in the country, who or what The reply came back -

Donald Dewar. I think we what we need to do

is identify how we speak And therefore we need to find ways

to give back to those individuals We need to build trust over the next

few years so that people can have I'm genuinely convinced

that the long-term solution - there is perennial debate

in Scotland about the constitution - is to have a federal Britain

and the Labour Party The Edinburgh-Glasgow divide

is often exaggerated but in political terms now

it is stark. I have left the West and I'm headed

East to the capital. If Glasgow is firmly

pro-independence, then in Edinburgh, people have voted for the party

they think will do the best job Does this election tell

you that there is no appetite I think there is a range of things

going on out there with voters. Some voters see perfectly well

that the case perhaps wasn't made last time and not everybody

was convinced and they are prepared The person the voters think will do

best at taking on the SNP is Ruth The Conservatives are now the main

opposition in Scotland. They have knocked Labour

into third position. That is an astonishing feat

and total embarrassment for Labour. And I think Ruth Davidson has gone

some way to banishing the ghost She doesn't think that

many of the people who voted for her are necessarily

what she calls true blue, They voted for her because they have

given her a political job to do. And I met one voter who did

exactly that. No, I don't have any particular

party allegiance but this time I did

vote Conservative. Just because I felt that

Ruth Davidson would offer the strong opposition that Scotland has been

lacking for so long. It almost feels as if the SNP has

had an unchallenged run The SNP's historic win of a third

term but short of an overall majority by two puts a degree

of power in the hands And that is exactly the way

the Scottish electoral system The Greens do pose

a bit of a difficulty. They are far to the left of the SNP,

their position on fracking and income tax is not something

the SNP would be comfortable with. So it could be that even

the Lib Dems come back into play Aside from all the horse

trading that lies ahead, the constitutional argument isn't

going to go away. But this result reduces the chance

of another referendum I am joined by Fiona Heslop, the SNP

minister, and Myers Briggs, a mSP and Tory MP. The historic third term

but no overall majority, that rules out any idea of another referendum

in the lifetime of this Parliament? It is a historic win and the first

party to get over 1 million votes but we will listen to the people of

Scotland. The people don't appear to want another referendum on

independence. If you look at the numbers, there is a majority in

favour of independence in terms of MSPs that were elected but we

clearly said in the manifesto that our job is to persuade people and

that is exactly what we will do but in the meantime we have to govern

well and it is a record victory. Would it be fair to say that Ruth

Davidson did not even think she would get this result? It has been a

spec that can result for the party and we are honoured that the people

have put their trust in the Conservative Party at the selection

and we have become the official opposition. As we heard, and she

said herself, a lot of people who voted Tory are not Conservatives and

presumably Apple temper the agenda you put forward? The people of

Scotland has asked us to do a job which is to hold her government to

account and we are saying that it is time to turn the page on the concert

usual arguments. This is the way the process was designed. Is it good for

democracy to have to be held to account more tightly and have to

negotiate, line by line? This is our third term, the first German had

only 47 votes and we ran in minority government and we now have 63,

effectively administering the government is only 64 votes over the

past period so it is perfectly possible but good politics means

that when we were a majority, we behaved like a minority as part of

the process is taking people with us and we have a good system that can

involve the parliament and take things forward so the journey we are

on is about constitutional development in Scotland and the

Democratic excitement. We will talk about the key policies in a moment

that talk about the budget because you will remember, the last time

there was a minority SNP administration the Conservatives

voted with the SNP to get the budget through. Will you do that again? We

need to see what the SNP put forward in this Parliament and we will work

constructively with the government and we think it will help to me

Scotland forward but we want the government to focus on the issues

that matter to people, who want them to look again at repealing the nine

person policy which has seen every child having a state guardian

allocated to them and we want to focus on creating jobs and growth in

the country, we are falling of the UK in terms of the economy so we

need to see action. It is fair to say that the main Guardian policy

has been very controversial? Because certain media have made it that way.

The issues that people are interested in, they want jobs for

the young people and a Health Service, we need investment above

inflation, we have a good track record in terms of achievement and

tacking the inequalities in Scotland. That is what people want

to see us focus on and that is what we will do. In a progressive way.

Things like the doubling of childcare provision for 2 euros and

three rows? Will you back that? Yes and that is in our manifesto, we

will work together when we can improve the country. It does sound

very cosy. Leadership and vision. It will not intrude on the very public

grief, but will you work with Kezia Dugdale in this way? We have a

minority government so all the parties I hope can put forward ideas

and policies and the government will listen to us on these and we will

work together to try to take this forward and Kezia Dugdale will have

areas she will want to pursue but as the official opposition our key

project in this Parliament and the thing people voted for is for us to

hold the government to account. We know that in the parliament we can

take everybody with us in terms of a number of issues that we have laid

on and it isn't in port and we engage, Scotland is very engaged in

politics. It was to see the Parliament striving Scotland forward

and I think that is a good example of how democratic mandates can work,

we can have a different type of parliament in Scotland and the rest

of the UK and we can do that successfully. 17-year-olds getting

the vote, a very proud example. Thank you.

We enjoyed seeing the dog have a bit of refreshment in the background.

Let's talk about Labour now, and its identity crisis.

It's not involved in one simple battle against the Conservatives,

In Scotland it's fighting for Unionist votes with the Tories.

It's competing for left-wing votes with the SNP.

it's trying to keep UKIP away from its working class votes.

And it's fighting the Tories in London and elsewhere.

But perhaps the most important battle is for the heart and soul

We'll discuss Labour's challenges shortly.

But Katie Razzall went to Nuneaton today, to canvas views there.

That of course is the Midlands swing town that went Tory last year,

telling us on election night, that Labour had no hope of winning.

Big glasses, embarrassing photo opportunities, the parallels

And of course there is often a nasty surprise in the end.

So, did last night's results leave the Conservatives smiling

Or is the picture just a little bit more confused?

Here in Nuneaton the main act nationally is the Conservatives.

In 2015 with the general election still up in the air,

David Cameron said he knew he had won when bellwether Nuneaton

But locally Labour are the only show in town.

Last night the Conservatives won three seats from Labour.

The swing from red to blue in Nuneaton Bedworth was around 11%.

But Labour still controls the council with 25 of the 34 seats.

With Labour also keeping control of nearby Coventry and the Tories

losing control of Rugby, I sought help from Nuneaton's Conservative MP

The Labour Party should be making more gains than they have,

they should certainly not have lost any seats at all in a place

like Nuneaton and they should have been worrying us in some

of our safest seats and increasing their vote share and trying

That is one way of looking at it, but it seems the same result can be

I do remember when almost everybody in this village worked in the pits.

In a place with reminders that this is prime Labour territory,

old colliery country, the Labour leader of the council had

We made very minor losses, we are very pleased with the results.

So you think what happened in Nuneaton is a good result

25 out of 34 in the council, that is a very good

Did Jeremy Corbyn come up for you on the doorstep?

I have to say that the only people who have mentioned Jeremy Corbyn

We have had no comment about Jeremy Corbyn whatsoever.

I have been on the doorstep, I have been in ballot stations,

nobody is mentioning Jeremy Corbyn in Nuneaton.

Ultimately, though, if Labour wants to win places like Nuneaton in 2020,

whose scalps Labour are offering will matter.

Did Jeremy Corbyn come into your mind at all?

It might be different with the general election,

He comes across as honest and genuine.

He is a radical lefty, so it's almost too far left,

but then again it is nice to have two-party politics.

The Prime Minister is literally getting away with stuff.

He can be a bit more tough with his questioning.

Nuneaton is fairly typical of these local elections.

Here turnout was low and of the people I spoke

to who voted, a lot had not, many told me they voted on local

issues and that insulates national trends.

But in turn that makes judging Labour or Conservative success

Results in Nuneaton and the like have not given

Corbyn Labour a resounding mandate, nor offered his opponents legitimate

This noisy internal row does not look like ending any time soon.

I'm joined now by Lord Falconer, Charlie Falconer,

Good evening. We are trying to work out whether we should interpret

these results as telling as anything interesting about the direction

Labour is taking and its leader. Sadiq Khan winning London, is that

an endorsement of Jeremy Corbyn, or is that an endorsement of Sadiq

Khan? Traditionally in London you have to be a defined, identifiable

personality in order to win. Ken Livingstone, Boris Johnson, Sadiq

Khan. You cannot win in London if you are simply a machine politician.

I think probably the success of Sadiq Khan in London is his

personality, plus the fact it is essentially a Labour city in

politics. I think it is more to do with Sadiq Khan... And Jeremy

Corbyn. That is right. What about the failure in Scotland? One of the

things people said was when he Jeremy Corbyn became leader he may

be able to lay more with the left wing voters to defected to SNP, but

that has not worked. That is not his fault. What happened in Scotland was

that from September 2014 there was a detachment of the heartland vote of

labour to the SNP and there has been a fundamental shift. It has not come

back. It has not come back because September 2014, or the build-up to

the referendum, was when it started. The next acceleration was the

general election in May, 2015. The process in Scotland is about, I

think, anti-Westminster politics with a plausible alternative, namely

Scotland first, and a non-Westminster party. The battle in

Scotland is about who is the opposition to a party that is, as it

were... May be the Conservatives were a clearer opposition than

Labour. As time goes on, Labour can regain its position in Scotland if

it becomes a plausible national party. Although the Tories have

overtaken them because they appeared completely solid on the union, at

the end of the day the party that can make a difference in Scotland is

the one that can connect Westminster with Scotland and I do not think the

Tories will ever get back like that. No real lesson in London that Corbyn

is working, no less than that he is failing in Scotland. The English

councils, he did quite well in that. Crawley is an example. They were

expected to take a pounding. Are you drawing any conclusions there? In

terms of what happened in England, indeed the whole country, we ended

up ahead of the Tories and we were ahead of our position. Unless you

benchmark it against wipe-out, it is terrible for an opposition. I would

not accept it was terrible for an opposition. What I would say is the

way the public are responding, for all the public, whether you are

responding to the Tories are Labour, things are very much in flux. The

Tories have gone down. It was significant that David Cameron went

to Peter borough where they did not get one extra place as his

triumphant place to go to, he was clutching at straws. Tony Blair won

2000 seats, you lost seats. Tony Blair took power when we were at the

point of going up like that, Corbyn took a position when we were on the

way down. How did it reconnect? It is still early days, but you do not

want to be paralysed saying, is this going to work or do we need to

change tack? When will you decide? You need to have a leadership that

is capable of convincing the public that it is not an apologist, for

leaks, but is genuine, and also convinces the public that by having

such a party it will not destroy the prosperity of the country. It is

when you get to that point that you connect. We either party at the

moment that is the strongest on the first. If you do not pick up seats

in Scotland in 2020, you need to win seats like Canterbury in order to

have a majority. You are miles away. I do not know the precise details of

Canterbury. One of the things that happened today in Crawley, Exeter,

Southampton, we held on in those places. But you need to win 100

seats in England. There is a process at the moment as far as the public

is concerned of looking across the political firmament and making

decisions. I do not think remotely that you could say either party was

in a position where the next election is fixed.

It's been a difficult day for pundits with such mixed results.

No party has been blown to oblivion, no knock-out winners either.

I'm with the New Statesman's Stephen Bush, and Isabel

I think we should start on Labour. Stephen, what do you think either

lessons you can pick up about the leadership? We know Jeremy Corbyn

does very well in places where voters are diverse, well educated

and young. He does well in a young city like London. It looks like

Labour will win Salford and Liverpool and Bristol may Orrell --

Mayers. The question is whether or not they can find a way of appealing

not just to the future, but to the present and at the moment it looks

like they are not doing it. You did not think the scores in England were

very good for them at the end of the day. They were ahead of the Tories

on vote share. Jeremy Corbyn has done a very good job of his

expectation management, but it is a big flashing light warning sign for

the opposition to lose seats in mid-term. That has not happened

since 1985, which was the prelude to a landslide defeat for Labour and

there is no reason to suggest that will again. We are still waiting for

the evidence that Jeremy Corbyn is leading a popular movement that is

galvanising support from people who are not normally excited by

politics. It is the opposite spectrum, but it is like Donald

Trump invigorating new voters. It makes it more difficult for him to

claim that he is taking the Labour Party forward and he has to make

arguments that suggest he will defy the laws of physics, in the same way

Ed Miliband said he had to even though he was behind in the

leadership and the economy in the general. Election For Jeremy Corbyn

not to be making gains when an opposition party should be making

gains, makes it much more harder for him to say that it is conforming to

conventional politics. It is hard to see a route out of leadership for

Jeremy Corbyn at this point. It is hard for his opponents to knock him

aside. Yes because the Labour membership has always had a strong

urge for unity. If you look at that losing votes in four different

places, I do not think the average member thinks there is anyone who

can achieve that task, so they might as well stick with a guy who shares

their values and go down in style. Where do you think the Conservatives

are left at the end of this? They are not crying. They must be sighing

with relief because they have had a terrible couple of months ever since

the budget on the number of policies they have had to make a U-turn on,

including today on the academies which they sneaked out when

everybody was writing about Labour. For them not to lose seats is a huge

relief, but the London result has not been good for them and it has

tested their campaigning instincts. They are conceding that London is

not the place for them, which is not a great place to be if you are a

government. There are seven or 8 million people in the country. It

may be a test of negative campaigning, but it is also a test

of whether you can have a candidate who does not look like he wants to

win in London. People come to London from all over the world to realise

their dreams. If we have somebody running for political office who is

not driven, that does not go down well in a city where everyone works

long hours. I am not suggesting Ruth Davidson for leader of the

Conservative Party, although lots of people have, but that she sure what

the new leader of the Conservative Party could look like and what the

party could unite around? Yes, a happy warrior, somebody who has not

gone to a proportional, somebody who people say, she seems nice. That is

that post-Brexit future, somebody in the recent Davidson mould. It is all

about brand Ruth, so if you have got somebody who can build something

based on their own name, that could work quite well, like Boris. I said

it was another nail in the coffin for the 2-party system. It is like a

patchwork. It is difficult for Labour to win in different parts of

the UK with one message. It has got different challenges in different

parts. Can Jeremy Corbyn really need the party with one united message?

Even if 2-party politics is not dead, one party cannot speak with

the same voice around the country any more. It is complicated. Thank

That's it, at the end of a long election process.

And we go through the whole voting thing again in seven weeks.

That's it from Newsnight, now for Artsnight.

David Baddiel travels to New York to ask whether Thomas Carlisle's

theory that Great Men shape the main narrative of history has

This programme contains some strong language

the thinker Thomas Carlyle came up with the great man theory -