Browse content similar to 29/06/2016. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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Question - what do we want from Brexit? | :00:00. | :00:07. | |
We'll ask how realistic our aims and ambitions are. | :00:08. | :00:23. | |
We'll hear from Brussels, and an exclusive interview | :00:24. | :00:26. | |
with the French finance minister who offers a little | :00:27. | :00:28. | |
Meanwhile, at Westminster, the Labour Party drama continues. | :00:29. | :00:47. | |
Might be in my party's interest for him to sit there. It is not in the | :00:48. | :00:55. | |
national interest. For heaven's sake, go. What about Europe? Where | :00:56. | :00:58. | |
were you when we needed you? We've been talking | :00:59. | :01:01. | |
to the grassroots. This is a coup, not only | :01:02. | :01:02. | |
long planned but a coup against the values that | :01:03. | :01:05. | |
Jeremy Corbyn has expressed so well It is a coup against the Labour | :01:06. | :01:07. | |
Party membership. And leave or remain - | :01:08. | :01:12. | |
what's Scotland thinking About the UK these days? I've | :01:13. | :01:24. | |
switched sides, and I have decided to vote Yes to independence from the | :01:25. | :01:29. | |
United Kingdom in another referendum. I know a lot of my | :01:30. | :01:30. | |
friends have also swapped sides. The referendum reaction phase | :01:31. | :01:33. | |
is over, the thinking phase is now underway as to what Brexit | :01:34. | :01:38. | |
is really going to mean. Thinking caps - and berets - | :01:39. | :01:41. | |
on. And the issue around | :01:42. | :01:44. | |
which all revolves is this - Can we get decent access | :01:45. | :01:46. | |
to the single market without also having to accept full freedom | :01:47. | :01:53. | |
of movement, which the voters It's the big issue in the EU | :01:54. | :01:55. | |
negotiation, and in the Tory Party We'll have more on the Tory | :01:56. | :02:02. | |
leadership shortly. The Europeans are pretty keen | :02:03. | :02:05. | |
to play hardball in defence of free movement, but is it credible | :02:06. | :02:11. | |
for them to resist British requests for a brake on migration, | :02:12. | :02:14. | |
when many of their own citizens Gabriel Gatehouse is in Paris today | :02:15. | :02:16. | |
for us, and he sat down for an exclusive interview | :02:17. | :02:21. | |
with the French Finance Minister, Michel Sapin, who gave a first chink | :02:22. | :02:25. | |
of a sign that there may Your President, Francois Hollande, | :02:26. | :02:40. | |
has said the United Kingdom should leave quickly. How quickly? | :02:41. | :03:03. | |
Would freedom of movement be a red line, non-negotiable? Some people | :03:04. | :03:10. | |
have suggested it would, for Britain's access to the single | :03:11. | :03:11. | |
market? If I understand you correctly, | :03:12. | :03:47. | |
premium of movement is negotiable? Everything is negotiable? -- | :03:48. | :03:50. | |
freedom. Who should be in charge of the | :03:51. | :04:30. | |
negotiations on the European Union side? Is it the commission for the | :04:31. | :04:32. | |
European Council? I ask, because I imagine the | :04:33. | :04:47. | |
Council, representing as it does the member states, some of whom also | :04:48. | :04:50. | |
have their own issues with freedom of movement, might be more inclined | :04:51. | :04:54. | |
to give a bit on that in negotiations than the commission? | :04:55. | :05:01. | |
Many people are saying nothing will change for at least two years, until | :05:02. | :05:08. | |
the coupling is complete, if you like. But, in financial areas, do | :05:09. | :05:16. | |
you expect changes to begin earlier than that? Do you envisage some | :05:17. | :05:21. | |
French banks, perhaps, moving their operations out of London to Paris? | :05:22. | :06:06. | |
Are you surprised that the level of planning for this on the British | :06:07. | :06:14. | |
side, or lack thereof? And the leaders of the Leave camp | :06:15. | :06:42. | |
are likely to be the leaders of the country soon. | :06:43. | :06:52. | |
I want to ask you about the nuclear power plant at Hinkley Point. I know | :06:53. | :07:02. | |
there is a final decision expected in September. Does Brexiter change | :07:03. | :07:04. | |
your calculation is? Let me put the question this way, do | :07:05. | :07:37. | |
you think it is less likely now to be agreed? | :07:38. | :08:01. | |
In other words, it's too early to say? Yes. Minister, thank you very | :08:02. | :08:06. | |
much. It sounds as though Michel Sapin | :08:07. | :08:12. | |
is breaking with the European line by suggesting that freedom | :08:13. | :08:14. | |
of movement could be negotiable, although there are nuances | :08:15. | :08:18. | |
in all this that don't Our diplomatic editor Mark Urban | :08:19. | :08:21. | |
is in Brussels where the leaders of the 27 other EU members sat down | :08:22. | :08:26. | |
without David Cameron Mark, what did you make of that line | :08:27. | :08:38. | |
from the French finance minister, that everything is on the table? | :08:39. | :08:43. | |
Well, fascinating. The truth is that we have to confess this to the | :08:44. | :08:47. | |
viewer, we are in such an unprecedented situation that it is | :08:48. | :08:51. | |
quite hard to calibrate Smoggie statements and some of these | :08:52. | :08:53. | |
positions. If you take the harsh words from the 27 leaders here today | :08:54. | :09:00. | |
at face value, what Michel Sapin is saying is that we haven't received | :09:01. | :09:04. | |
the British ideas yet and, until we do, everything is on the table. You | :09:05. | :09:08. | |
could read it that way, nothing more than that. I think if you voted | :09:09. | :09:12. | |
Leave in the referendum, you could also take some comfort from the fact | :09:13. | :09:17. | |
that he was willing to go on to that area of freedom of movement and | :09:18. | :09:20. | |
there did seem to be something that he was willing to talk about in | :09:21. | :09:24. | |
broad terms, even if it is not part of the so-called Norwegian model or | :09:25. | :09:29. | |
a specific template. I think it is a fascinating thing that the EU has | :09:30. | :09:33. | |
used such harsh language today with Britain, really to try to get out | :09:34. | :09:37. | |
the meaning of what was said and the degree to which it was meant. I met | :09:38. | :09:44. | |
earlier with the Swedish Prime Minister, to ask him if there was an | :09:45. | :09:47. | |
element in this really trying to Britain. | :09:48. | :09:50. | |
I don't hear that kind of discussion, and I would | :09:51. | :09:52. | |
like to underline that Great Britain will stay a good partner, also, | :09:53. | :09:55. | |
And all the member states are expressing that we want a good | :09:56. | :10:00. | |
relationship with the United Kingdom. | :10:01. | :10:03. | |
Do you think it would be possible, though, for Britain to get a free | :10:04. | :10:07. | |
trade package, like Norway's, but makes amendments to that? | :10:08. | :10:10. | |
Or is it a take it or leave it offer from your point of view? | :10:11. | :10:13. | |
Depending on exactly what you mean, but yes, you have different options. | :10:14. | :10:16. | |
But there is no question that if you want to have the single | :10:17. | :10:22. | |
market, if you want access to the single market, | :10:23. | :10:25. | |
you need also to approve of the four freedoms. | :10:26. | :10:28. | |
Freedom of movement is clearly critical there. | :10:29. | :10:35. | |
Does that mean any deal in which the UK tried to amend | :10:36. | :10:38. | |
or soften that and retain access to the single market? | :10:39. | :10:40. | |
You might argue we are getting slightly mixed messages, but they | :10:41. | :10:53. | |
have only had a few days to get their ducks in a row. One thing they | :10:54. | :10:59. | |
are all saying is there is no negotiations until we invoke Article | :11:00. | :11:04. | |
50. How rigidly is that line being applied? Well, let's use a military | :11:05. | :11:10. | |
analogy, I sometimes like those. Clearly, close combat cannot begin | :11:11. | :11:18. | |
until a new British Government has chosen one of these options, is it | :11:19. | :11:22. | |
like Canada, Norway, something completely different? It can't start | :11:23. | :11:26. | |
until that point. On the other hand, despite the euro flannel we have | :11:27. | :11:31. | |
heard about there not being any negotiations before Article 50 is | :11:32. | :11:35. | |
invoked, we have heard opening salvos in the past two days. The | :11:36. | :11:39. | |
Prime Minister saying yesterday to the other leaders, you will have to | :11:40. | :11:43. | |
look at this issue of free movement. The leader saying back, don't expect | :11:44. | :11:48. | |
to two Leave cherry pick or get a Norway without free movement. Today, | :11:49. | :11:52. | |
the opening, defining positions are being laid out. In the coming | :11:53. | :11:55. | |
months, while Britain is choosing its new leader and the options are | :11:56. | :11:59. | |
being refined, there will be talks between the different key European | :12:00. | :12:03. | |
powers, the French, the Germans, the others like that, and they will come | :12:04. | :12:08. | |
together at around the time that Britain's new Prime Minister is | :12:09. | :12:14. | |
chosen, in Slovakia, to finesse and home down their position in | :12:15. | :12:18. | |
anticipation of what the new British Government will choose. At that | :12:19. | :12:21. | |
point, I think we should get much more clarity. | :12:22. | :12:24. | |
Getting our EU negotiating stance straight is entwined with a second | :12:25. | :12:26. | |
important decision - who will be the next Prime Minister? | :12:27. | :12:29. | |
In effect, the process of choosing both is down | :12:30. | :12:31. | |
to the Conservative Party, which is in full leadership election mode, | :12:32. | :12:34. | |
Nick Watt, our political editor, is with me | :12:35. | :12:40. | |
We have had some candidates declaring and also some hints of | :12:41. | :12:47. | |
some tensions, perhaps, between Boris Johnson and Michael Gove? Yes, | :12:48. | :12:52. | |
we have the fascinating leaking of an e-mail written by Michael Gove's | :12:53. | :12:57. | |
wife, a Daily Mail columnist, suggesting not is all sweetness and | :12:58. | :13:01. | |
light at the top of the Boris Johnson campaign. Michael Gove is | :13:02. | :13:03. | |
co-chair of the campaign and his wife says you have to demand | :13:04. | :13:07. | |
specific guarantees and assurances from Boris Johnson before you | :13:08. | :13:11. | |
support. Intriguingly, Sarah Vine also wrote that you come below that | :13:12. | :13:19. | |
husband, bring to the campaign the support and confidence of Rupert | :13:20. | :13:21. | |
Murdoch and Paul Dacre, the daily mail editor. This is what wrote. | :13:22. | :13:33. | |
Whoever said the era of press barons is over? This race is going to be | :13:34. | :13:43. | |
well and truly underway with the launch of the Boris Johnson and | :13:44. | :13:46. | |
Theresa May campaigns tomorrow, so we thought we would take a look at | :13:47. | :13:50. | |
how the contest is going and the way it is shaping the Brexiter | :13:51. | :13:51. | |
negotiations. Barely a week has passed | :13:52. | :13:53. | |
since David Cameron's resignation as Prime Minister, | :13:54. | :13:55. | |
but blink and you'll miss the start The favourite, Boris Johnson, | :13:56. | :13:58. | |
will declare this morning, The young outsider, Stephen Crabb, | :13:59. | :14:02. | |
well, he declared this morning. Having been brought up in a council | :14:03. | :14:10. | |
house by a single mother, Stephen Crabb's background could not | :14:11. | :14:14. | |
be more different to the Etonian Stephen Crabb, you are the underdog | :14:15. | :14:18. | |
and you come from a very different background to the average | :14:19. | :14:25. | |
Tory grandee. A bit like Margaret | :14:26. | :14:28. | |
Thatcher in 1975. Are there any lessons | :14:29. | :14:31. | |
for you from that campaign? I'm not afraid of being the underdog | :14:32. | :14:34. | |
but I actually think there is space in this leadership campaign, | :14:35. | :14:38. | |
this leadership debate, for not just a coronation, | :14:39. | :14:43. | |
not even for a two-horse race. I think we have to get past this | :14:44. | :14:47. | |
Boris-stop Boris dichotomy. Mindful of the fate | :14:48. | :14:51. | |
of the last blonde to stand for the Tory leadership - | :14:52. | :14:53. | |
Michael Heseltine - Boris Johnson kept something of | :14:54. | :14:55. | |
a low-profile at Westminster today. But he will be out of the traps | :14:56. | :14:59. | |
in the morning with a declaration that he offers a chance to believe | :15:00. | :15:03. | |
in ourselves and a hope that he will be able to unite | :15:04. | :15:06. | |
the Remainders and Leavers I am backing Boris Johnson | :15:07. | :15:09. | |
because the people have been very clear that they want to leave | :15:10. | :15:15. | |
the European Union. They were right to | :15:16. | :15:19. | |
make that decision. I think they expect that process | :15:20. | :15:21. | |
to be led by someone Boris has sent confusing signals | :15:22. | :15:23. | |
this week over his stance on the two core issues | :15:24. | :15:30. | |
at the heart of the referendum. Free movement of people and access | :15:31. | :15:33. | |
to the single market. If we have to except freedom | :15:34. | :15:37. | |
of movement, if freedom of movement was the single biggest objection | :15:38. | :15:43. | |
to leaving the EU in the first place, we are going to lose | :15:44. | :15:47. | |
the advantages of membership of the EU whilst not gaining | :15:48. | :15:50. | |
necessarily very much in return. Those who supported Brexit made | :15:51. | :15:55. | |
a number of assertions and promises which, in practice, | :15:56. | :15:59. | |
are going to be very difficult, One grandee who is supporting | :16:00. | :16:02. | |
Theresa May wonders whether Boris lacks that Prime | :16:03. | :16:12. | |
Ministerial gravitas. A point illustrated in the Commons | :16:13. | :16:15. | |
with a dig at "Borisconi". I can't imagine, it just slipped | :16:16. | :16:18. | |
out that way. And a lot of people think that | :16:19. | :16:21. | |
Boris Johnson has been fun but they are really, | :16:22. | :16:26. | |
really doubtful about whether he can be trusted to be serious, | :16:27. | :16:29. | |
to apply himself. Whereas Theresa May, | :16:30. | :16:31. | |
I think, most definitely can. And I think also, when she walks | :16:32. | :16:34. | |
into the room to try and undertake these negotiations, she will be | :16:35. | :16:38. | |
treated seriously but she will be Seven years as Home Secretary | :16:39. | :16:42. | |
and she wasn't leading Whereas, I think if Boris Johnson | :16:43. | :16:48. | |
were to go into such a room, he would get very, | :16:49. | :16:54. | |
very short shrift. This is the first time in British | :16:55. | :16:57. | |
history that the grassroots membership of a political party | :16:58. | :17:00. | |
will be deciding who our That is quite a responsibility, | :17:01. | :17:03. | |
given that this election will be shaping the negotiations | :17:04. | :17:10. | |
about Britain's place in Europe that will set the course of UK politics | :17:11. | :17:13. | |
for decades to come. So far, the contest | :17:14. | :17:18. | |
is following the usual path There is a clear frontrunner, | :17:19. | :17:21. | |
but that does not guarantee victory. The odds are against | :17:22. | :17:30. | |
the frontrunner but, frankly, I think we are now | :17:31. | :17:32. | |
into such open territory that very little about history is a guide | :17:33. | :17:36. | |
to what is going to happen. The wise candidate, who might very | :17:37. | :17:41. | |
well get elected at the end of the day by the 150,000 | :17:42. | :17:46. | |
Conservative paid-up members, is one that is able not just | :17:47. | :17:51. | |
to unify the Conservative Party but is going to be able to reach | :17:52. | :17:55. | |
some form of consensus This evening, the Tories | :17:56. | :17:58. | |
were meant to put the troubles of the referendum behind them | :17:59. | :18:04. | |
at their annual summer party held But there are reports of trouble | :18:05. | :18:07. | |
over the seating plan worthy If Remainers and Leavers | :18:08. | :18:14. | |
are uncomfortable about sitting together, is there any hope | :18:15. | :18:21. | |
the new leader can heal Joining me now is Conservative MP | :18:22. | :18:23. | |
and Chair of the Foreign Affairs select committee Crispin Blunt - | :18:24. | :18:29. | |
he's backing Boris. You are explaining something, you | :18:30. | :18:40. | |
not about the negotiation because if it fails, there still in an OK | :18:41. | :18:47. | |
situation? The committee looked at this and this report in April and I | :18:48. | :18:50. | |
suggest people read that as it is highly likely or European partners | :18:51. | :18:55. | |
cannot agree a strategy between themselves, if there is a qualified | :18:56. | :19:00. | |
minority blocking any deal, those people who want to deal positively | :19:01. | :19:05. | |
with the UK or those who want to be seen to punish us. ... Then that | :19:06. | :19:12. | |
does not work and the European Parliament asked to approve this. If | :19:13. | :19:18. | |
all that fails, we have two cell into the single market on the most | :19:19. | :19:24. | |
favoured nation terms with talents of about 3%, 10% in some areas like | :19:25. | :19:31. | |
cars. And that is not the end of the world. It is better than that. | :19:32. | :19:38. | |
Because we then get control of immigration, we have control of free | :19:39. | :19:46. | |
movement, we don't have to pay billions into the EU budget, we can | :19:47. | :19:50. | |
decide where that gets spent. It gets better, we are regulating our | :19:51. | :19:59. | |
own market. I understand, you think the backstop is... Can I ask you, | :20:00. | :20:07. | |
what you understand why what Boris Johnson wrote in the Telegraph, this | :20:08. | :20:12. | |
line about British people being able to work, study, travel and buy homes | :20:13. | :20:22. | |
in the EU. What did he mean by that? I don't know. I don't know what | :20:23. | :20:31. | |
Boris Johnson meant that. Can you see any outcome when that happens? | :20:32. | :20:39. | |
We can restrict them... Can we live in the United States if we have the | :20:40. | :20:45. | |
means? I cannot go and live in the United States. You can get a green | :20:46. | :20:50. | |
card. You are supporting him, he has written this thing, which appears to | :20:51. | :20:55. | |
imply that we. Them coming here but we will have the right to go there. | :20:56. | :21:00. | |
He has just been in the middle of a campaign, he should know if that is | :21:01. | :21:07. | |
achievable. Do you think so? My view is that we will have to come to some | :21:08. | :21:11. | |
deal about how people can move between the UK and the rest of the | :21:12. | :21:16. | |
European Union. Can you see them allowing us freedom of movement but | :21:17. | :21:19. | |
us allowing them freedom of movement? Your candidate for Prime | :21:20. | :21:24. | |
Minister, who was meant to be an expert on this, has just written... | :21:25. | :21:28. | |
Failed quite certain that everybody is going to this in turn everything | :21:29. | :21:33. | |
that he says because it is a significant campaign. ... He was | :21:34. | :21:38. | |
paid several thousand pounds for this article and he wrote something | :21:39. | :21:42. | |
that was reassuring about what the position would be for the British | :21:43. | :21:47. | |
that appears to most commentators to be utterly wrong. Are you not | :21:48. | :21:52. | |
worried? There is uncertainty all over the place amongst the | :21:53. | :21:58. | |
candidates, certainly in the media. Let me finish this point. It is | :21:59. | :22:02. | |
important in the national interests that we get as much certainty as | :22:03. | :22:07. | |
possible about what the bottom line is for the UK. But if we take the | :22:08. | :22:16. | |
bottom line, can I live, travel, study and via home in France? On | :22:17. | :22:22. | |
your bottom line? No, if the negotiations... So how can Boris | :22:23. | :22:27. | |
Johnson give me that reassurance? That is what he is seeking to | :22:28. | :22:31. | |
achieve and it is obviously in the mutual interest of both the United | :22:32. | :22:35. | |
Kingdom and our European partners that that is the case. In the same | :22:36. | :22:41. | |
way... The same way as it is in our mutual interest at the tariff | :22:42. | :22:46. | |
fishing, particularly with European partners, if they sell twice as many | :22:47. | :22:50. | |
manufacturing goods to us as we sell to them, that they would want to see | :22:51. | :22:54. | |
those tariffs reduced. Quickfire round? There are some issues, do you | :22:55. | :22:58. | |
think immigration from non-EU countries, if your candidate wins, | :22:59. | :23:07. | |
will go up or not? Promises were made to Asian communities that it | :23:08. | :23:12. | |
would be easier to get relatives in. My view is that we should regulate | :23:13. | :23:19. | |
immigration from outside the United Kingdom consistently across the | :23:20. | :23:23. | |
piece. More or less from outside the EU? Irrigation to be the same. You | :23:24. | :23:29. | |
are not going to answer that. This is more serious than trying to | :23:30. | :23:36. | |
score... These are questions that have not been answered. And your | :23:37. | :23:40. | |
candidate is gone to stand for Prime Minister. But you know perfectly | :23:41. | :23:46. | |
well that the numbers of people coming into the United Kingdom are | :23:47. | :23:50. | |
not necessarily, depending on what system you set up, it is going to | :23:51. | :23:55. | |
depend on how many people come here. If you put a cap on the number of | :23:56. | :23:59. | |
visas you will allow, that is one way of controlling it, and are you | :24:00. | :24:07. | |
going to go by the number of... And finally, we're going to have control | :24:08. | :24:14. | |
over this. We're going to do the important business of trying to | :24:15. | :24:17. | |
protect British unskilled and semiskilled Labour and having to | :24:18. | :24:20. | |
compete with people who have professional qualifications coming | :24:21. | :24:24. | |
from central, eastern and southern Europe or anywhere else. That is why | :24:25. | :24:30. | |
they are not allowed in. That is a very long way of saying you don't | :24:31. | :24:33. | |
know if immigration will go up or not. We have to leave it there. | :24:34. | :24:35. | |
Thank you very much. Well, Labour have provided more | :24:36. | :24:37. | |
in the way of sparks this week, with a crisis that has given | :24:38. | :24:40. | |
new life to the words There was no challenge | :24:41. | :24:43. | |
to the Corbyn leadership today, Any news about Jeremy Corbyn? Chief | :24:44. | :25:03. | |
Whip went in to see him this evening and he is sleeping on their | :25:04. | :25:07. | |
conversation. This took place after the Deputy Leader said he should | :25:08. | :25:11. | |
think about going. I spoke to an ally the sickening and this person | :25:12. | :25:17. | |
told me that Jeremy Corbyn is in the very bad place. He said he is not a | :25:18. | :25:20. | |
broken man but he is a good-hearted man. He cannot believe that friends | :25:21. | :25:25. | |
have turned against him and he believes the decision by Ed Miliband | :25:26. | :25:28. | |
to speak out against his leadership was an act of betrayal. And this | :25:29. | :25:34. | |
person has broken to family members and the message coming from the | :25:35. | :25:37. | |
family is, what are you doing to Jeremy Corbyn? The message coming | :25:38. | :25:42. | |
from his allies in the Labour Party is, you have to protect the legacy. | :25:43. | :25:48. | |
That is code for, do not resign as leader egos if you do, the left will | :25:49. | :25:53. | |
lose control of the Labour Party. Because as soon as he goes, then | :25:54. | :25:57. | |
there can obviously be a leadership contest, but if he is there and | :25:58. | :26:02. | |
there is a challenge, he will be on the ballot paper. I was going to ask | :26:03. | :26:07. | |
if there would be any challenge tomorrow? I presume not but I think | :26:08. | :26:12. | |
we might have got one today, tomorrow? Angela Eagle is ready to | :26:13. | :26:17. | |
go. She has got 51 signatures ready for a challenge or 36 signatures if | :26:18. | :26:23. | |
it is not a challenge and a vacancy. As a understand it, there are people | :26:24. | :26:27. | |
in her circle saying, do not challenge. Hold back, if you | :26:28. | :26:33. | |
challenge, Jeremy Corbyn will be on the ballot paper and that will be an | :26:34. | :26:37. | |
invitation to the momentum grassroots campaign to get on the | :26:38. | :26:41. | |
streets and really make quite a protest for Jeremy Corbyn. Thank | :26:42. | :26:42. | |
you. The strife in Labour has really been | :26:43. | :26:45. | |
about who is in control of the party and, in particular, | :26:46. | :26:48. | |
should MPs defer to MPs usually find it easier | :26:49. | :26:50. | |
than party members to get slots on TV programmes like this, | :26:51. | :26:54. | |
but we thought it might be more useful at this point, | :26:55. | :26:57. | |
to hear from the grassroots, so Lewis Goodall has been sounding | :26:58. | :26:59. | |
them out. Just a warning his piece begins | :27:00. | :27:01. | |
with some flash photography. Last September, Jeremy Corbyn | :27:02. | :27:04. | |
was elected with the biggest mandate Only nine months later, he faces 172 | :27:05. | :27:11. | |
of his MPs telling him to go. His opponents hope the shock Brexit | :27:12. | :27:18. | |
result would drain his support Newsnight has spoken to 50 chairs | :27:19. | :27:21. | |
and secretaries of local Labour Parties up and down | :27:22. | :27:33. | |
the country who supported Of these, 45 say they would support | :27:34. | :27:35. | |
and nominate Mr Corbyn again in the event of another | :27:36. | :27:39. | |
leadership contest. It's fair to say they | :27:40. | :27:41. | |
are not exactly happy Chris Williamson was an MP, | :27:42. | :27:44. | |
but is now a party chairman in Derby The attempted coup by certain | :27:45. | :28:15. | |
members of the Parliamentary Labour The fact is, Jeremy Corbyn | :28:16. | :28:21. | |
was elected with an overwhelming mandate, a mandate that is | :28:22. | :28:27. | |
unprecedented, the biggest mandate that any leader of any political | :28:28. | :28:32. | |
party has ever achieved in history. It's very regrettable, it is a civil | :28:33. | :28:35. | |
war that the membership Newsnight has learned that, | :28:36. | :28:41. | |
and down the country, over the next few days, | :28:42. | :28:44. | |
local Labour parties will be having special meetings to discuss the dire | :28:45. | :28:48. | |
situation facing the party, like Party members are, by nature, | :28:49. | :28:51. | |
pretty loyal to the party and I think that most of us feel | :28:52. | :28:58. | |
quite hurt with what's We are seeing an attempted coup | :28:59. | :29:01. | |
against Jeremy Corbyn. Furthermore, this is a coup not only | :29:02. | :29:06. | |
long planned, but a coup against the values that | :29:07. | :29:10. | |
Jeremy Corbyn has expressed so well I think he absolutely would win | :29:11. | :29:12. | |
another leadership election. In the last week, 18,000 people have | :29:13. | :29:19. | |
joined the Labour Party and 60% of them have written that the reason | :29:20. | :29:24. | |
they were joining is to support One group that is determined to hold | :29:25. | :29:27. | |
MPs' feet to the fire is Momentum. They are pressuring and agitating | :29:28. | :29:33. | |
at meetings like this one, going on behind me in Camden, | :29:34. | :29:35. | |
with Keir Starmer. They know that if they don't | :29:36. | :29:38. | |
support Jeremy Corbyn, Indeed, one London Labour | :29:39. | :29:41. | |
chairman told me that deselection isn't just possible | :29:42. | :29:47. | |
for them, it's certain. They won't stop, he said, | :29:48. | :29:50. | |
until they get the sort Tonight, Jeremy Corbyn | :29:51. | :29:52. | |
remains defiant. But whether he wins again or loses, | :29:53. | :29:59. | |
one thing from these The acrimony and mistrust | :30:00. | :30:02. | |
within the party is deep. Whoever is leader, the task | :30:03. | :30:05. | |
of rebuilding will be enormous. Lewis Goodall. More on Labour | :30:06. | :30:21. | |
tomorrow, I expect. Economic forecasts are not very | :30:22. | :30:24. | |
likely to be reliable, but I thought you might be | :30:25. | :30:26. | |
interested to hear how the city economists have changed their view | :30:27. | :30:29. | |
about economic growth over this The group Consensus Economics track | :30:30. | :30:31. | |
all the reputable forecasts, Since the Brexit vote, | :30:32. | :30:35. | |
the average forecast for this year's growth has been downgraded this year | :30:36. | :30:38. | |
by half a percentage point. Next year, the growth | :30:39. | :30:43. | |
downgraded by 1.7%. Believe the forecasts, | :30:44. | :30:48. | |
by the end of next year, the economy will be 2.2% smaller | :30:49. | :30:56. | |
than it would have been had And what is a loss of 2.2% | :30:57. | :30:59. | |
of national income? Well, you remember the famous | :31:00. | :31:03. | |
?350 million a week we were said 2.2% of national income | :31:04. | :31:06. | |
is ?350 million every We're all trying to get our heads | :31:07. | :31:10. | |
around the effects of Brexit. Our business editor | :31:11. | :31:18. | |
Helen Thomas is with me. Helen, any signs of gloom, doom or | :31:19. | :31:32. | |
buoyancy? First things first, it was a good day in the markets. The FTSE | :31:33. | :31:36. | |
100 is actually back up above what it was before the referendum result. | :31:37. | :31:41. | |
That is good news. The FTSE 250 and the pound also had a good day, but | :31:42. | :31:45. | |
they are still well down on where we were last week. The economic story | :31:46. | :31:50. | |
is still really uncertainty. In that environment, we are looking for any | :31:51. | :31:52. | |
early indicators we can offer what is going on out there. One area is | :31:53. | :31:57. | |
hiring and hiring intentions. We have the first look at some data | :31:58. | :32:04. | |
from Tam Dalyell, the professional body for human resources, they have | :32:05. | :32:08. | |
done a snap survey of their members. Here are some numbers. One thing to | :32:09. | :32:12. | |
emphasise a very early days. This is recruitment and tension over the | :32:13. | :32:15. | |
next five months. About 50% say it is too early to say, about 30% say | :32:16. | :32:20. | |
no particular change. But when you go on, you have 18% saying they are | :32:21. | :32:26. | |
less likely to hire, and then 14% talking about a recruitment freeze. | :32:27. | :32:31. | |
Getting down to the nitty-gritty, about 9% are saying they are more | :32:32. | :32:36. | |
likely to cut jobs. A side note on that data, it was a question where | :32:37. | :32:40. | |
you could take more than one box, so there is doubling up in brackets. | :32:41. | :32:47. | |
Another big picture takeaway is how unprepared businesses were for this | :32:48. | :32:51. | |
result. Do you have a post Brexit plan? 6% have won, 26% are working | :32:52. | :32:57. | |
on one currently, quite frantically, you might think! 54% still don't | :32:58. | :33:01. | |
have one in place. You can see why people might be. This is obviously | :33:02. | :33:09. | |
still before we have proper data, are there any other early signs? We | :33:10. | :33:15. | |
should stress we are really in reading economic tea leaves | :33:16. | :33:21. | |
territory. Nothing definitive. Springboard monitors footfall in | :33:22. | :33:26. | |
shopping centres, high streets and retail parks. Last week, they | :33:27. | :33:30. | |
thought it was down 5% on the year before. They say they saw a marked | :33:31. | :33:34. | |
deterioration in the second half of the week after the referendum | :33:35. | :33:37. | |
result, compared to the first half of the week. There are lots of | :33:38. | :33:43. | |
reasons we go shopping or not. Football! Yes, and a big one is the | :33:44. | :33:47. | |
weather. Springboard said they checked the weather and it is | :33:48. | :33:51. | |
broadly similar to last year. They do think there was a deterioration | :33:52. | :33:55. | |
after the result of the referendum. These are small, early signals, | :33:56. | :34:01. | |
nothing definitive. As you say, until we get any hard data, it is | :34:02. | :34:07. | |
what we got. A letter written to the Times in the wake of the referendum | :34:08. | :34:10. | |
result suggested the United Kingdom should be renamed Poundland, as the | :34:11. | :34:13. | |
currency is the only thing that we have in common. | :34:14. | :34:15. | |
It may be a slight exaggeration, but it is certainly the case | :34:16. | :34:18. | |
that there is great anxiety in Scotland about being dragged out | :34:19. | :34:21. | |
of the EU against the wishes of the majority of its voters, | :34:22. | :34:24. | |
and lots of talk about a second referendum on Scottish independence. | :34:25. | :34:26. | |
So will that really happen - and is there any way | :34:27. | :34:29. | |
Outside the Scottish Parliament, old friends gather. | :34:30. | :34:39. | |
Veterans of the 2014 campaign for Scottish independence meet | :34:40. | :34:43. | |
with renewed energy, the same purpose but wildly | :34:44. | :34:45. | |
A demand that Scotland stays in the European Union. | :34:46. | :34:55. | |
The political case for independence has never been as strong. | :34:56. | :34:58. | |
The argument we made that it doesn't really matter what way Scotland | :34:59. | :35:01. | |
votes in the UK, it can always be overruled, | :35:02. | :35:03. | |
We've seen it happen in a most dramatic fashion. | :35:04. | :35:08. | |
Many of the people I've been speaking to in this | :35:09. | :35:10. | |
crowd voted for Scottish independence in 2014. | :35:11. | :35:13. | |
So, in a sense, we could perhaps discount the views of this group | :35:14. | :35:16. | |
of people that are already on the side of an | :35:17. | :35:19. | |
The question is, how much has this trauma, | :35:20. | :35:23. | |
this Brexit referendum, had an impact on those | :35:24. | :35:25. | |
We need to keep pressure on people in that building behind us... | :35:26. | :35:31. | |
According to the polls, at least, there are plenty of people | :35:32. | :35:34. | |
who are now reassessing their opinion of independence. | :35:35. | :35:37. | |
I voted No in the previous Scottish independence referendum. | :35:38. | :35:42. | |
In this EU referendum, again, I voted to remain with the EU. | :35:43. | :35:47. | |
But now, based on this outcome, I have switched sides and decided | :35:48. | :35:50. | |
to vote to Yes to Scottish independence from the | :35:51. | :35:53. | |
United Kingdom, should we have another referendum. | :35:54. | :35:55. | |
And I know plenty of my friends have changed their minds as well. | :35:56. | :36:00. | |
But while the political case may have strengthened, | :36:01. | :36:02. | |
Since the 2014 referendum, the oil industry in Scotland has | :36:03. | :36:07. | |
Oil prices are roughly half what they were in the Scottish | :36:08. | :36:13. | |
The IFS puts Scotland's fiscal gap between overall spending and overall | :36:14. | :36:17. | |
revenues at around ?10 billion a year and widening. | :36:18. | :36:23. | |
Any future independence offer will have to be very different | :36:24. | :36:26. | |
from that presented to the Scottish people in 2014. | :36:27. | :36:29. | |
It will have to be ruthlessly honest and tell some hard truths. | :36:30. | :36:32. | |
Independence will be an expensive and difficult business, | :36:33. | :36:35. | |
but we will go into it with our eyes open, if you like. | :36:36. | :36:38. | |
That, at least, is the kind of offer that will have to be made. | :36:39. | :36:41. | |
That will be a very sobering experience. | :36:42. | :36:43. | |
It may be that this will be a difficult argument to win, | :36:44. | :36:46. | |
but it is probably the only Yes argument that could win. | :36:47. | :36:49. | |
On the table for David Cameron yesterday, nothing save | :36:50. | :36:54. | |
For Nicola Sturgeon today, a spread stacked with nibbles and, | :36:55. | :37:00. | |
After all, creative rule bending is an EU artform. | :37:01. | :37:07. | |
I think it would be very unlikely that Scotland would be recognised | :37:08. | :37:10. | |
as a member state without having achieved independence from the rest | :37:11. | :37:12. | |
of the United Kingdom at a domestic level. | :37:13. | :37:16. | |
But it is an interesting question, whether the EU can adapt | :37:17. | :37:19. | |
so as to give some sort of protection, autonomy | :37:20. | :37:22. | |
status to the regions of a former member state. | :37:23. | :37:27. | |
Because this isn't simply a matter of law, it's a matter | :37:28. | :37:30. | |
Always first a question of political will, with the law to be put | :37:31. | :37:35. | |
These are very early days, of course, but there is no sign yet | :37:36. | :37:41. | |
The EU President Donald Tusk and member states have | :37:42. | :37:47. | |
so far refused to meet with the Scottish First Minister | :37:48. | :37:50. | |
There is no shortage of bits of Europe that would like to be | :37:51. | :37:57. | |
treated as separate in EU negotiations, not least in Spain | :37:58. | :38:00. | |
who, we were told today in a press conference, | :38:01. | :38:02. | |
opposes any negotiation by anyone other than the Government | :38:03. | :38:04. | |
Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy argued emphatically if the United Kingdom | :38:05. | :38:10. | |
Nicola Sturgeon, then, didn't leave with anything concrete. | :38:11. | :38:20. | |
I've received a lot of sympathy and a lot of good wishes today. | :38:21. | :38:23. | |
That, of course, doesn't translate into an automatic | :38:24. | :38:27. | |
easy path for Scotland, but it does mean I leave Brussels | :38:28. | :38:32. | |
tonight to travel back to Edinburgh in good heart and optimistic. | :38:33. | :38:40. | |
There are, though, some who think we could get through this | :38:41. | :38:42. | |
constitutional crisis, if that is what it is, | :38:43. | :38:45. | |
by MPs getting together and agreeing to ignore the people, | :38:46. | :38:47. | |
ignore the outcome of the referendum. | :38:48. | :38:51. | |
I'm on my way now to meet someone who is famous for framing | :38:52. | :38:54. | |
Former Labour MP Tam Dalyell came up with the famous West | :38:55. | :39:00. | |
As passionate today as ever about the sovereignty | :39:01. | :39:05. | |
MPs should have the balls to use their best judgment, | :39:06. | :39:14. | |
If their best judgment, as I understand it is the best | :39:15. | :39:23. | |
judgment of 450 more, is that Britain should remain | :39:24. | :39:27. | |
within the European Community, they should have the balls to say | :39:28. | :39:30. | |
This is a matter of cowardice if they don't. | :39:31. | :39:45. | |
The big change for Scotland from 2014 is it is a case | :39:46. | :39:49. | |
that the country can't now be in both unions, | :39:50. | :39:51. | |
It could simplify the politics, but end up making | :39:52. | :39:56. | |
We've had hopes and fears in the programme today, | :39:57. | :40:05. | |
Scotland, economics, the negotiation. | :40:06. | :40:07. | |
Let's finish with some reflections on all that. | :40:08. | :40:10. | |
I'm joined by the columnists Melanie Phillips, from the Times, | :40:11. | :40:13. | |
and Jonathan Freedland from the Guardian. | :40:14. | :40:18. | |
Melanie, you were pretty keen on Brexit, does it worry you that | :40:19. | :40:26. | |
you're seeing potential disintegration of the UK? I would be | :40:27. | :40:30. | |
extremely concerned about the potential disintegration of the | :40:31. | :40:33. | |
United Kingdom. I think it is distinctly premature to worry all | :40:34. | :40:36. | |
over again about Scotland. I think Nicola Sturgeon has been extremely | :40:37. | :40:41. | |
wise to be cautious in her phrasing. A second referendum for independence | :40:42. | :40:46. | |
is on the table, fine, let's have it on the table. There is no problem in | :40:47. | :40:50. | |
that. But she is wise to be cautious for a number of reasons. First, as | :40:51. | :40:55. | |
we can see, the EU itself is not necessarily keen to have Scotland as | :40:56. | :41:00. | |
a member because this will open Pandora's Box again to other | :41:01. | :41:05. | |
secessionist movements in Europe and they don't want that. Secondly, from | :41:06. | :41:11. | |
the Scottish people's perspective themselves, nobody knows what this | :41:12. | :41:14. | |
thing is going to look like to which they all want to continue to sign | :41:15. | :41:18. | |
up. They don't know what Europe or the EU will look like, they don't | :41:19. | :41:22. | |
know, we don't know what deal the EU will finally do with the United | :41:23. | :41:27. | |
Kingdom. Can I ask, let's fly ahead ten years, if it was the case that | :41:28. | :41:32. | |
Scotland didn't leave the UK, and everybody could see the date at | :41:33. | :41:37. | |
which that destiny was set was devoted to Brexit, would you regret | :41:38. | :41:42. | |
Brexit in that situation? No, I would regret very much of Scotland | :41:43. | :41:45. | |
left the United Kingdom, they are an integral part of the United Kingdom. | :41:46. | :41:55. | |
However, for me, national self-governance is overall. I know | :41:56. | :41:59. | |
that you are a Remainer, Jonathan, where should the country draw the | :42:00. | :42:03. | |
line on the balance between free movement, restricting that, and | :42:04. | :42:06. | |
getting access to the single market? It seems to be the fundamental | :42:07. | :42:10. | |
question we are facing. Just on the Scotland thing, if you or a patriot | :42:11. | :42:15. | |
and are doing it for the country, a price worth paying is to break up | :42:16. | :42:18. | |
the country seems like an odd thing to say. The balance of free | :42:19. | :42:23. | |
movement, access to the single market seems crucial for the | :42:24. | :42:27. | |
economy. Everybody says so. Even people on the Leave side said that. | :42:28. | :42:31. | |
Boris Johnson's very unique brand of magical thinking, in which he | :42:32. | :42:36. | |
famously said he is pro-cake and pro-eating it, even he was | :42:37. | :42:40. | |
constantly saying through the campaign, of course we will be in | :42:41. | :42:44. | |
the single market, plenty of other Leavers were as well. It is vital. I | :42:45. | :42:49. | |
think we will be sending the economy to pen Yury if we break out of it. | :42:50. | :42:54. | |
It's quite clear that the electorate have a problem with the free | :42:55. | :42:58. | |
movement. Before the result, I was writing that Labour needed to change | :42:59. | :43:01. | |
the message and say that it is something we need to look at. I | :43:02. | :43:05. | |
think the European powers themselves, France and Germany, are | :43:06. | :43:09. | |
also going to look at it. That might be where the action could be, | :43:10. | :43:15. | |
actually. You would, presumably, Melanie, say that free movement is | :43:16. | :43:18. | |
the red line and get whatever we can on single market access after that? | :43:19. | :43:22. | |
For me, the red line is British national self-government. For that, | :43:23. | :43:28. | |
we need to be able to determine our own immigration policy, for that we | :43:29. | :43:31. | |
need not to have the free movement rules. That is how it works for me. | :43:32. | :43:37. | |
I understand, obviously, there is a big problem here in respect of free | :43:38. | :43:43. | |
movement of the one hand, against sovereignty on the other, | :43:44. | :43:45. | |
potentially. We have already seen there is a slight frisson of a hint | :43:46. | :43:51. | |
from the French that possibly, just possibly, it might be discussed. | :43:52. | :43:59. | |
This is our story, and it is leading in the Daily Mail, Europe starts to | :44:00. | :44:04. | |
crack on migrants? Yes, also, I'm not an economist, I yield to others | :44:05. | :44:08. | |
that no much more about this than I do, but I'm listening to people that | :44:09. | :44:12. | |
do know about the way economists worked who are saying that, you | :44:13. | :44:16. | |
know, the free market is not the be all and end all. Sorry, the single | :44:17. | :44:22. | |
market. You talk about, quite rightly, Boris Havering, but Michael | :44:23. | :44:25. | |
Gove was very clear during the campaign, we come out of the EU, we | :44:26. | :44:29. | |
come out of the single market. His view is that we can negotiate with | :44:30. | :44:33. | |
the countries of the EU independently. Outside the single | :44:34. | :44:38. | |
market? We heard Crispin Blunt saying... Our economy is so bound up | :44:39. | :44:46. | |
with them, so intertwined. Our economy is unique. Nobody, but | :44:47. | :44:50. | |
nobody knows how it will be for us because we have never been in this | :44:51. | :44:54. | |
situation before. We are not Norway, we are not Switzerland. I want to | :44:55. | :44:58. | |
keep moving this along. How, Jonathan, does the interaction of | :44:59. | :45:03. | |
this with the Tory leadership contest work? We might think the | :45:04. | :45:06. | |
leadership election is not the best way to frame a national decision | :45:07. | :45:14. | |
about policy? It means somebody like Boris Johnson, who I think would be | :45:15. | :45:19. | |
someone who wants to be flexible on this and negotiate something that | :45:20. | :45:21. | |
would look a lot like Remain is having to go further and adopt a | :45:22. | :45:31. | |
harder Leave position. Somebody like Theresa May, you would think she | :45:32. | :45:34. | |
would be the more pragmatic, responsible figure. Partly, polling | :45:35. | :45:39. | |
suggesting she is polling the Leave pulling ahead because she looks like | :45:40. | :45:43. | |
a responsible adult, rather than ad-libbing it like Boris Johnson. | :45:44. | :45:49. | |
Yet, if you want somebody who negotiates on something like LIBOR, | :45:50. | :45:53. | |
it would be helpful to have somebody like Boris Johnson, who has been to | :45:54. | :46:01. | |
China. It is the dilemma, we have had conversations about it. The | :46:02. | :46:07. | |
Times, they say that in a poll, Tory activists say that Theresa May is at | :46:08. | :46:10. | |
55%, Boris Johnson at 38%. There is a very clear mandate from | :46:11. | :46:21. | |
the people. She could be Prime Minister and say, Boris, negotiate | :46:22. | :46:27. | |
with the European Union? She could but you cannot have a Prime Minister | :46:28. | :46:34. | |
who is a Remainer. This was about taking back control and the Prime | :46:35. | :46:37. | |
Minister will be chosen by 150,000 people. | :46:38. | :46:38. | |
A couple of big Tory beasts will declare themselves candidates | :46:39. | :46:42. | |
for the leadership tomorrow, and maybe one in the Labour Party. | :46:43. | :46:45. | |
Nick Watt will be live on Facebook live from the Boris launch, | :46:46. | :47:08. | |
Wednesday's wet and windy weather leaving so was nice to | :47:09. | :47:10. |