30/06/2016 Newsnight


30/06/2016

Evan Davis looks at the Conservative Party leadership race.


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Transcript


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APPLAUSE I don't often wear my heart on why

:00:00.:00:12.

sleeve, I just get on with the job in front of me. APPLAUSE

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What is your message for Michael Gove? What is your message for

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Michael Gove? Having consulted colleagues, in view of the

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circumstances in Parliament, I have concluded that the person cannot be

:00:30.:00:30.

me. Boris negotiating Europe, last time

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he did a deal with the Germans, he came back with three nearly new

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water cannon... (!) LAUGHTER There is lots of talented people who

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could be Prime Minister after David Cameron, but count me out. I don't

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want to be Prime Minister. I could not be Prime Minister. I know that I

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could not do it. I am not equipped to be Prime Minister. I don't want

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to be a minister. I came reluctantly but firmly to the conclusion that I

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should stand and Boris should stand aside.

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You don't need me to recount the events of the day,

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suffice to say that we've had more remarkable twists,

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in a week that was already liable to cause motion sickness.

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Tory MP Jake Berry who was backing Boris, tweeted:

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"There is a very deep pit reserved in Hell

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for such as he. #gove."

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Now, you know how in conversation, men sometimes dominate

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Well, the stage has been dominated by men.

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For a couple of years it was about Boris vs Osborne.

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And yet it's now Theresa May who has quietly become the front runner.

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The bookies have her down as the new favourite.

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That's not always a good place to be, by the way.

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But we'll have more on her and the Conservative Party

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in the programme, first though, the story of what has happened

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Here's our political editor, Nick Watt.

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VOICEOVER: They were the two big political beasts who were going to

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remake Britain's place in the world after an intense month together on

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the road, instead, within the space of just two hours, their

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relationship disintegrated and the race to succeed David Cameron was

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turned on its head. Boris Johnson has been the frontrunner among

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Brexit Tories during the referendum campaign but in a sign of how he was

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leaving no stone unturned, he dined with Paul Dacre at this discreet

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Mayfair club earlier this month, he knew that if he was going to win the

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contest, he had to win over the bible of Middle England. All seem to

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be going swimmingly, with Boris Johnson's plan for number ten as

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recently as yesterday afternoon. In an office tucked away in this

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building, on the Parliamentary estate, Michael Gove's long-standing

:03:15.:03:18.

friend, Nick Boles, was briefing the Boris team on the speech for his

:03:19.:03:23.

campaign launch. But by this morning, he had a new job, campaign

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manager for Michael Gove. Later that afternoon, an e-mail sent by Sarah

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Vine, to her husband, one Michael Gove, was mysteriously leaked to the

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press... (!)... Giving us the first hint that all was not well in team

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Johnson Gove. The canary in the mine was the leaked e-mail, from

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yesterday, a friend of mine e-mailed me and said, is Michael standing? I

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e-mailed back, naively, as it turned out, saying I did not think he was.

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The Boris Johnson campaign had seemed to be on such a smooth flight

:04:02.:04:05.

path that the Sun newspaper printed an article overnight by the Justice

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Minister, hailing his political qualities. It is 6am, Thursday, 30th

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of June... A fellow Johnson ally had been expecting to cheer Dominic Ryan

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on during a two-day show interview, but he was rudely interrupted with a

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surprise request as he stepped out of the shower. I had a call at

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5:45am, asking if I would step in and do the today programme with John

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Humphrys, because Dominic had pulled out, I had no idea why this

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happens... At such a late stage, Michael and Boris have been working

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together for three months, stuck in a big bus, going around the country

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together... You were due to do the today programme and you pulled out.

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Absolutely, there is an element of this which is fast, people can have

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their 24 hours, 48 hours, and when the dust settles, you have a choice,

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candidates here will stand and leave the country, not just the

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Conservative Party. The question is, what do you want? Shortly before

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9am, Michael Gove addressed his new campaign team, in his ministerial

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office in Westminster. Even long-standing friends thought they

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were attending a Boris Johnson campaign team meeting. I was very

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surprised by the announcement by Michael, I was not expecting it, and

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about two minutes before he walked into the room I thought, something

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is up, this is not quite normal, I thought it was a meeting to get me

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onto Boris's team. The minute he stood up I knew that I was -- he was

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in. At 9:02am, Michael Gove's team announced to the press that he was

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standing for the leadership. Overnight, the Justice Secretary had

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alerted allies of his decision, just as Boris was out making merry, not a

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word was said to him or his team. I had no idea, when I got back to the

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campaign headquarters, it started coming on the wires, none of us

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knew... Boris did not know... After the bombshell from Michael Gove,

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senior members of the Boris Johnson team hit the phones in their

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campaign office to shore up support. At 11:20am, the former London Mayor

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telephoned an ally, to say that he was abandoning his leadership bid

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with the words, " I don't want to divide the party, I don't want to do

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any Jeremy Corbyn". Other members of the team were kept in the dark until

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Johnson spoke. I remember thinking, the longer he is, the less likely he

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will be a candidate, if you are a candidate, you want to push your

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message, get out there. We waited 20 minutes, and that made me think

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perhaps he would withdraw. It was a strong speech, interesting, but it's

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lacked energy. I think that was the tell-tale sign. Good morning,

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everybody, thank you very much. World and, as to what happened

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between five past nine, last night, when I got a message from Michael's

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team, to this morning, shock, obviously... Michael Gove knows that

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he stands guilty on two counts of treachery, running a referendum

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campaign which brought down his one-time friend, David Cameron, and

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abandoning his old friend, Boris Johnson, allies insist he followed

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his conscience to withdraw support from someone who is simply not up to

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the job of Prime Minister. I don't think people should read into this

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some long-term Machiavellian strategy. I think that he agonised.

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You genuinely think that this was a process? He has never set out with

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the ambition to become Prime Minister, he is making this bid now,

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and he wants to be Prime Minister now because he thinks that the right

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person, he has looked at alternatives and does not think that

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Boris Johnson is the alternative. Final straw for Michael Gove came

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when Boris Johnson failed to live up to a commitment to guarantee a

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senior campaign post to the energy minister, and Brexit campaigner,

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Andrea Leadsom. Michael Gove believe this disqualified him from standing

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as Prime Minister, on the grounds that he was a bit cavalier with his

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allies or could not keep his word. Michael Gove now believes that his

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hour has come, but one friend has said that he knows that he has got

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to knock it out of the park tomorrow morning at his campaign launch if he

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is to stand a chance against his archfoe, Theresa May. What about

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Boris? STUDIO: We have with us

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a panel of Tory members. The most powerful people

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in the country right now. We should run down the road,

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starting with you, who you are backing at this point? I am backing

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Theresa May because I believe that she is a unifying candidate for the

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party and the country. I agree with John, she is unifying. She is the

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only person who is going to be good at being Prime Minister and she is a

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tough negotiator. She looked the part today. Come on then, who are

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you backing? Andrea Leadsom, she is the only character with -- candidate

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with the toughness required, based on the mandate voted for last week.

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Michael Gove is my man, he has conviction, competence, and also, I

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would like to see next leader come from the vote Leave campaign. Who

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were you backing yesterday? Good question...! LAUGHTER

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Boris Johnson. So you went from Boris. In the hope there would be a

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deal with Boris Johnson and Michael Gove. I am undecided, it is early

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days, I want to see what contenders can offer, not just that the party

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but for the country. We will come back to you all at the end of the

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programme, I will be interested to see if you hear anything that

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changes your mind. Is it edifying, are you impressed by what you have

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seen? We love the drama, house of cards, but is it edifying? I don't

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think anybody in the country would think it is, it has been like an

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astonishing pantomime and that is why it is so important that we unify

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behind a tough candidate, one who shows leadership qualities, who can

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draw us together, and make sure that we do not do what the Labour Party

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does right now. You, as journalists, you think it is quite fun, people

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dropping like flies, everyone gossiping, standing... But actually,

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in the country, I think people are really angry. The winds from the

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referendum have not at all been solved by this. The more this goes

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on, the worse this is. Show of hands, how many of you are annoyed

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that you will not get a chance to vote for Boris, he will not be a

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candidate. I would like to have had him on the ballot, because he would

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have emphasised a politics which no other politician can offer at the

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moment. We will come back to you at the end of the programme.

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It's a paradox, but while today has been one of the Tories messiest,

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the in-fighting and backbiting does appear mainly personal now,

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Deeply personal. Four-letter word personal.

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not among the five leadership candidates anyway.

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Look at what they are actually saying, and you discern a certain

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unity that we've forgotten the Conservative party

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It may not last, it may not suit some of the old guard,

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but it was all there in Theresa May's

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For one thing, she and the others appear to be putting their ghastly

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She the Remainer, yielding to Leave.

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Turnout was high, the public gave their verdict.

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There are voices that don't agree, but it's not much of an issue

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Then there's another refrain you're hearing,

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that it's time to have an elite weakening,

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opportunity supporting, class-ridding capitalism.

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Because Britain still needs a government capable of delivering a

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programme of serious social reform, and realising a vision of a country

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that truly works for everyone. All that austerity stuff, you know,

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getting borrowing down, everything the party has been

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doing for six years. Well, it was looking difficult,

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so now's an opportunity to junk it. We should no longer seek

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to reduce a budget surplus If before 2020 there

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is a choice between spending, further spending cuts,

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more borrowing and tax rises, the priority must be

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to avoid tax increases, since they will disrupt consumption,

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employment and investment. I suspect other candidates

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will follow suit Theresa May and the others are

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sounding broadly aligned. Now, what about

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Theresa May the person? She has risen to front runner status

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by doing everything She's not the most personable

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of candidates, she doesn't butter

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up the backbenchers in the teabar. She's not the charismatic

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communicator that Boris Johnson is, Her line is that she gets

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on with the job. It was the first track

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she chose when she appeared but Theresa May has never felt

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she had to walk like a man Today the bookie's favourite to be

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Tory leader launched her bid

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to become the second ever I don't gossip about people over

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lunch, I don't go drinking

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in Parliament's bars. I don't often wear my

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heart on my sleeve. I just get on with the job

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in front of me. and I think I'm the best person to

:14:40.:14:42.

be Prime Minister of this country. Well, Theresa has never played

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by what people have come to regard as the normal rules

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of politics, doing favours, She's always been absolutely

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straightforward saying, "I've got a job to do,

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I'll get on with that job and I'll do it to

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the best of my ability And in a sense it's the way

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politicians used to operate before An anti-politician then,

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and the ultimate survivor. Her first foray into public

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consciousness came with a speech to Tory conference

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is a really nonentity. -- to Tory conference

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as a really nonentity. You know what some people call us?

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The nasty party. It was a watershed moment

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in the attempts to break with her party's toxic past,

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although not everyone Theresa May doesn't yearn to be

:15:33.:15:34.

liked, but that didn't stop her rising up the ranks under

:15:35.:15:44.

various Conservative leaders. Her reputation is as a conscientious

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hard worker, who put As the longest serving

:15:49.:15:53.

Home Secretary in 50 years, she's championed gay marriage

:15:54.:15:57.

and other progressive causes, but also the likes

:15:58.:15:58.

of the snooper's charter. There have been riots on her watch

:15:59.:16:05.

and she has presided over the failed But it's her stand-off

:16:06.:16:08.

with the police that's If you do not change

:16:09.:16:11.

of your own accord, I think that slight straightforward

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way has actually won her a lot of fans from MPs who have only

:16:16.:16:25.

known her really as Home Secretary. Previous home secretaries have had

:16:26.:16:29.

all sorts of things going on, but she's not shied away

:16:30.:16:32.

from the hard things. May has been compared with Angela

:16:33.:16:34.

Merkel. Both have an immense grasp

:16:35.:16:36.

of detail, both take In her bid to be leader,

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May has already dropped her long-standing opposition

:16:39.:16:44.

to the European Convention on human rights, to appeal

:16:45.:16:45.

to the party's liberal wing. Her position during the referendum

:16:46.:16:49.

also appears pragmatic. On the Remain side,

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but remaining aloof. Far be it from me to interfere

:16:52.:16:57.

with the Tory leadership campaign, we've got enough problems

:16:58.:16:59.

of our own. But I think she's played it very

:17:00.:17:02.

cannily in her own interests in terms of the European referendum

:17:03.:17:06.

campaign, by keeping a low profile. We are in an era where people

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are both sick of flamboyant politics, as we've known it,

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even when they are She may be able to benefit from that

:17:27.:17:28.

anti-politics, as we've known it, the low-key,

:17:29.:17:35.

the slightly more reserved and more

:17:36.:17:37.

thoughtful aspects. If she does become Conservative

:17:38.:17:38.

leader, Theresa May will have done it without playing by the normally

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accepted rules of politics. It will make her the first

:17:43.:17:45.

Home Secretary since Winston Churchill to

:17:46.:17:48.

reach the very top. Reports suggest Theresa May is

:17:49.:18:02.

exhausting to negotiate with. There is suggestions David Cameron avoided

:18:03.:18:07.

confrontations with his Home Secretary. But those skills may

:18:08.:18:09.

appear useful as the exit looms. A quick look now, at what we think

:18:10.:18:14.

the state of play is in terms of MPs Andrea Leadsome on 14,

:18:15.:18:19.

and Gove on 12. Well, I'm joined now

:18:20.:18:31.

by the Cabinet Office Who are you going to support? Anyone

:18:32.:18:44.

who has watched the news knows we are in incredibly difficult times

:18:45.:18:48.

and we need somebody with a steady hand, who has proven leadership

:18:49.:18:52.

credentials. So I will be backing Theresa May. Why not Michael Gove? I

:18:53.:18:59.

go back a long way with Michael. Exactly. He is a brilliant man, but

:19:00.:19:07.

given everything that has happened over the past week, especially, we

:19:08.:19:11.

need somebody who is steady and steadfast, determined. And over six

:19:12.:19:17.

years at the Home Office, one of the most successful home secretaries in

:19:18.:19:21.

history, you could argue, I think Theresa May is the person, right

:19:22.:19:28.

now, to provide that stability. You have told us, this hasn't been

:19:29.:19:32.

announced before you got here, have you spoken to George Osborne about

:19:33.:19:38.

your decision to back Theresa May? I did tell him. I would have supported

:19:39.:19:43.

George had he ran. He decided not to. Each day that passes, I think

:19:44.:19:48.

the country, more and more, is looking for stability and certainty

:19:49.:19:55.

and a clear way forward. She has got the leadership. She is also she

:19:56.:20:01.

comes from the same sort of one Nation heritage that I care deeply

:20:02.:20:06.

about. We saw that in the package, I thought. We are interested in what

:20:07.:20:11.

you think, but also interested in what George Osborne things. When you

:20:12.:20:15.

said you were backing Theresa May, did he look pleased, interested

:20:16.:20:20.

first remark he hasn't declared yet. Other than saying he is not running

:20:21.:20:25.

himself. Michael Gove says it should be a Brexiteer, given the vote last

:20:26.:20:30.

week, what do you think of that argument? What Theresa May can do is

:20:31.:20:36.

bring the party together, she can provide the unity. There are five

:20:37.:20:41.

candidates, out of all of them, she is best placed to bring, not a party

:20:42.:20:46.

together, but also the country together. I thought the speech today

:20:47.:20:51.

was a good example of that, making sure the economy works for

:20:52.:20:55.

everybody. We have had this incredibly difficult and divisive

:20:56.:20:57.

referendum campaign. A very close results. Questions over whether the

:20:58.:21:02.

economic recovery is reaching all parts of the country and whether

:21:03.:21:06.

people who are disrupted, have been disrupted by new technology and

:21:07.:21:11.

globalisation. I think she can deliver on that agenda. Brexit means

:21:12.:21:20.

Brexit. You were a remainder, she was a remainder, but you all laxity

:21:21.:21:27.

is now. Does that mean people who feel passionately about Remain, and

:21:28.:21:31.

it is more important than the difference between Labour and Tory,

:21:32.:21:36.

should now assume there is no place for them thinking of voting Tory?

:21:37.:21:40.

The Tory is a sceptic party, don't vote Tory if you want to remain. We

:21:41.:21:48.

are clear that we accept the decision of the British people. I

:21:49.:21:53.

argued for Remain. If there was reform in Europe of some kind, can

:21:54.:21:58.

you imagine the Tory party going back and saying, let's think about

:21:59.:22:03.

this again? Suppose they gave us a really bad deal, could you imagine

:22:04.:22:07.

saying, this is not good, let's go back in. You have got to respect the

:22:08.:22:16.

will of the people. If you were a remainder, the Tory party is not for

:22:17.:22:23.

you? We and the Labour Party all voted for this referendum. When you

:22:24.:22:27.

vote for a referendum, I am a Democrat before anything else. She

:22:28.:22:31.

gave a big chunk of her launch statement to the need to break class

:22:32.:22:36.

barriers and increase social mobility and opportunity. I wonder

:22:37.:22:40.

if you could take that as a criticism. Because haven't you been

:22:41.:22:44.

doing everything to break down barriers and create opportunity? It

:22:45.:22:48.

shows there is so much more to be done. It is an area I have been

:22:49.:22:55.

working on in government and I think we have made some progress. I think

:22:56.:23:01.

the referendum result demonstrated there is clearly more to do.

:23:02.:23:04.

Tackling issues around social mobility are incredibly important.

:23:05.:23:08.

It is the kind of Conservative Party I want to be in and that is the kind

:23:09.:23:18.

of Conservative Party leader I want. How upset are you that she said

:23:19.:23:24.

essentially, abandon the fiscal targets. The last election was

:23:25.:23:28.

fought on those fiscal targets. A lot of people said they are not

:23:29.:23:33.

achievable, or not worth achieving and a year in, we have had the

:23:34.:23:38.

target abandoned. Circumstances have changed. How? We have just voted to

:23:39.:23:43.

leave the European Union. But he won't even committed to being in at

:23:44.:23:50.

that point, he must have planned for this? Government policy was to stay

:23:51.:23:54.

in. We warned in advance. Government policy wasn't to stay in? Yes it

:23:55.:23:59.

was, government Wallasey in the run-up to the referendum... No,

:24:00.:24:06.

run-up to the election. There was a deficit target that has now been

:24:07.:24:12.

abandoned. You can pick at the semantics, but something huge has

:24:13.:24:17.

changed, we have voted to leave the European Union. I have said before

:24:18.:24:21.

that, as did many respected independent forecasters, the impact

:24:22.:24:25.

of that is likely to be negative for the taxpayer and the fiscal numbers.

:24:26.:24:31.

It is perfectly reasonable, when that has happened, and that wasn't

:24:32.:24:37.

part of the plans, the plans were to stay in, you have to look at the

:24:38.:24:43.

fiscal picture again. It is not a problem at all for my support of

:24:44.:24:52.

Theresa May. I am a fiscal conservative, I want to deal with

:24:53.:24:58.

the deficit. But you have got to change when the circumstances

:24:59.:25:00.

change. Thank you very much indeed. To stab one colleague in the back

:25:01.:25:03.

looks unfortunate. To stab two, looks

:25:04.:25:05.

like ruthlessness. But that is what

:25:06.:25:06.

Michael Gove has done. He abandoned David Cameron

:25:07.:25:08.

and opposed him in the referendum, and then Mr Gove abandoned

:25:09.:25:10.

Boris Johnson with but a few The treachery tag may

:25:11.:25:11.

stick to Mr Gove - it did to Ed Miliband for example

:25:12.:25:14.

for what he did to his brother. But it might be that Gove is just

:25:15.:25:16.

a conviction politician, who can't help but stand

:25:17.:25:17.

by what he believes, Chris Cook looks at the man

:25:18.:25:19.

and his beliefs. I believe the people should have the

:25:20.:25:32.

choice to be members of a union. Michael Gove has a slightly sure

:25:33.:25:40.

we're past than most politicians. As a younger man, he tried his hand at

:25:41.:25:46.

comedy. He is neither a spectator columnist or a sociologist, he an

:25:47.:25:52.

armed robber. Some of Michael Gove's university friends told me they

:25:53.:25:57.

didn't expect him to be a politician. They thought he would be

:25:58.:26:03.

a Scottish Stephen Fry. He has an instinct to provoke, and entertain.

:26:04.:26:07.

His officials and advisers still say his desire to be interesting above

:26:08.:26:11.

all, sometimes gets him into scrapes. Or, just total weirdness.

:26:12.:26:17.

My favourite character in a game of thrones is... Hey everybody take a

:26:18.:26:25.

look at me I have street credibility. As Education Secretary

:26:26.:26:34.

he drove massive reforms. Michael Gove, the demented Dalek of speed.

:26:35.:26:44.

After a brief spell as Chief Whip, he has used his tenure as Justice

:26:45.:26:51.

Secretary to shake up prisons. Michael is committed to the issues

:26:52.:26:55.

of aspiration, social justice, the things I care about. I want to see

:26:56.:27:01.

that with the next leader of the Conservative Party and Prime

:27:02.:27:05.

Minister. Is he a detail man? He is all over detail, I looked at the way

:27:06.:27:15.

he conducted himself in Cabinet and the Prime prison reforms, I think he

:27:16.:27:20.

is the right person for the task. One area Mr Gove has some

:27:21.:27:24.

distinctive use is the Northern Irish peace process. In 2000 he

:27:25.:27:28.

wrote a pamphlet for the CPS in which he argued their approach to

:27:29.:27:32.

Republican terrorist reminded him of appeasement in the 1930s. He wrote a

:27:33.:27:39.

book in which he argued Islamist terrorists had been encouraged by

:27:40.:27:44.

the way Britain had dealt with Northern Ireland. Looking at this

:27:45.:27:47.

pamphlet he wrote in 2000, it is further out than the DUP. He accuses

:27:48.:27:54.

the Good Friday agreement of being appeasement and suggests we rip it

:27:55.:27:59.

up and go back to fighting the IRA. It is awhile taught. Is Northern

:28:00.:28:05.

Ireland likely to be in issue in the coming years? I have just been in

:28:06.:28:12.

Northern Ireland and it is a bit tense. The outcome of the

:28:13.:28:17.

referendum, when Northern Ireland voted to remain, means people have

:28:18.:28:21.

been on edge. Cabinet colleagues of Michael Gove say he is a hardliner

:28:22.:28:27.

on this issue, as he is on Islamist extremism. He is a neo-conservative,

:28:28.:28:32.

in favour of the Iraq war. He attacked the Daily Mail's coolness

:28:33.:28:37.

on it. In foreign affairs and other areas of life, if we were to follow

:28:38.:28:44.

the Daily Mail's advice, we would be heading for disaster. But this week,

:28:45.:28:48.

a leaked e-mail from his wife thought they could win over the

:28:49.:28:51.

editor of the Daily Mail. Wrongly, it has emerged this evening. He has

:28:52.:28:59.

gone for Theresa May. The leaked e-mail suggested I could get the

:29:00.:29:03.

support of Rupert Murdoch. Official documents showed Mr Gove, a former

:29:04.:29:08.

employee of Rupert Murdoch has met with the executives. And they met at

:29:09.:29:12.

a recent wedding and Mr Murdoch suggested Michael Gove should run,

:29:13.:29:16.

this week. It is observed and it is true that Michael Gove is personally

:29:17.:29:22.

courteous. But there is a wrinkle. It is very striking people who cause

:29:23.:29:26.

Mr Gove personal difficulty, often face vitriolic press coverage

:29:27.:29:28.

shortly afterwards. That applies whether you are a Cabinet minister,

:29:29.:29:33.

like Caroline Spelman or Philip Hammond, or a journalist like me. In

:29:34.:29:40.

2011, I was the education reporter at the Financial Times. I reported

:29:41.:29:45.

Michael Gove had been using his white's personal e-mail account for

:29:46.:29:49.

public business. It kept information at the hands of officials he didn't

:29:50.:29:54.

trust, and a wave of Freedom of information requests. I got a wave

:29:55.:29:58.

of nasty, personal press comments by friends of Michael Gove, and

:29:59.:30:01.

anonymous Twitter accounts repeatedly abused me and attempts

:30:02.:30:05.

were made to get the company that owns the Financial Times, to fire

:30:06.:30:11.

me. Michael Gove has less polite people on hand. Dominic Cummings,

:30:12.:30:16.

his most aggressive aid and a former bigwig invoked Leave. I would

:30:17.:30:24.

characterise Michael Gove as being a radical conservative. It is easy to

:30:25.:30:30.

think of him as very much in the same stable as David Cameron. They

:30:31.:30:35.

became part of this compassionate, modernising force in the

:30:36.:30:38.

Conservative Party. But what I have learned working with and seeing

:30:39.:30:43.

Michael's activities and views over a sustained period of time, is he

:30:44.:30:47.

and the Prime Minister are very different individuals. The Prime

:30:48.:30:52.

Minister is a small sea Conservative and Michael Gove is a radical. Say

:30:53.:30:58.

what you like, but life under Michael Gove's Premiership wouldn't

:30:59.:31:01.

be dull. STUDIO: Well, I'm joined now by two

:31:02.:31:09.

Mps who until this morning were both Now that he's out, Jacob Rees-Mogg

:31:10.:31:13.

has switched to Michael Gove, while Nadhim Zahawi is now backing

:31:14.:31:16.

Theresa May. what do you think of his behaviour

:31:17.:31:29.

this morning? i think that he has changed his mind, i think that

:31:30.:31:31.

politicians ought to change their mind and announce it to the public,

:31:32.:31:35.

what he has done is extremely rave, it came late in the day, nobody in

:31:36.:31:40.

their right mind would have plotted it this way, so i am convinced it is

:31:41.:31:44.

genuine, came to aching delusion, told everybody, he will be an

:31:45.:31:53.

excellent prime minister. michael has been a great campaigner for the

:31:54.:31:57.

vote leave campaign, huge talent, the bit you have missed out...

:31:58.:32:00.

prison reform, it is incredibly valuable. I was shocked, this

:32:01.:32:10.

morning, 9:05pm, last night. His special adviser saying, we are all

:32:11.:32:14.

on, looking forward to seeing you for Boris's launch. Does it matter?

:32:15.:32:25.

It does not, we move on. Why are you supporting him, he has made a

:32:26.:32:28.

difficult decision, to push his friend out of the way but if he is

:32:29.:32:32.

still a better leader, why would you not support him? As you have heard

:32:33.:32:37.

from my co-author, Matt Hancock, Paymaster General, the leader should

:32:38.:32:40.

be someone who can unite the country, 17 million people voted

:32:41.:32:44.

out, there should be somebody who could deliver for those people

:32:45.:32:47.

especially those on the national living wage, who were hurt by

:32:48.:32:51.

freedom of movement but also those who can govern for the 48% who want

:32:52.:32:55.

to remain. What that means for me, for the people who wanted to remain,

:32:56.:32:59.

they want to see the economy being robust and strong and a settlement

:33:00.:33:03.

with Europe. Theresa May called me in, I met with her today, she

:33:04.:33:08.

reassured me that the negotiating team will be led by Brexiteers and

:33:09.:33:19.

she has the steely resolve that she wants to get a deal, she is stubborn

:33:20.:33:23.

enough to do that and get a deal on the economy. She can unite the

:33:24.:33:27.

membership. In Stratford-upon-Avon, he told me, that they are

:33:28.:33:33.

overwhelmingly behind it. Why are you picking Michael Gove? In some

:33:34.:33:38.

ways, he does not look the winner that Theresa May does, not quite

:33:39.:33:42.

unify. I have always thought that Michael Gove would be an excellent

:33:43.:33:46.

candidate and a brilliant Prime Minister, I encouraged him to stand

:33:47.:33:49.

early on, before he had decided not to. It is natural for me to support

:33:50.:33:54.

him now, it is essential that the new leader supported leave. You are

:33:55.:34:01.

rolling out half the party, basically? I am, this is a very big

:34:02.:34:05.

decision that the British electorate have made, it needs to be in the

:34:06.:34:08.

hands of someone they can trust you really believe that leave is what we

:34:09.:34:14.

want. -- ruling out. There will be some compromises that must be made

:34:15.:34:20.

with European Union. The issue about treachery is clearly going to be

:34:21.:34:24.

around him, hanging around him. Your party used it against Ed Miliband in

:34:25.:34:29.

the general election... That was against his brother. You did it

:34:30.:34:35.

against Ed Miliband. That is against his brother, fraternal infighting is

:34:36.:34:40.

different from someone who says as a matter of principle, I think the

:34:41.:34:44.

leader I was going to support is not going to be successful. They have

:34:45.:34:49.

known each other for 30 years. Do you think the treachery tag will

:34:50.:34:53.

hang around? People will draw their own conclusions, they spent three

:34:54.:34:57.

months with Boris on the bus going up and down the country, came on

:34:58.:35:08.

board as soon as the result was known, to chair the campaign. Boris

:35:09.:35:19.

had very little notice. Now we have five strong candidates.

:35:20.:35:36.

It would have been idiotic to plan it that way, he's correctness in

:35:37.:35:43.

doing it is assumed by the reverse, that if he had decided to back a

:35:44.:35:48.

candidate in whom he no longer have confidence, that would be letting

:35:49.:35:51.

the country down, once he has come to that conclusion, he had to

:35:52.:35:54.

announce it, however late, however personally inconvenient, and chosen

:35:55.:35:59.

to be a man of considerable strength.

:36:00.:36:04.

So what's the story with Boris Johnson?

:36:05.:36:05.

In his lively journey over the years, the rise, the fall,

:36:06.:36:08.

the next rise, the latest fall, he has exposed something,

:36:09.:36:10.

how stale many other politicians are, in projecting

:36:11.:36:12.

The jovial persona appealed to many, but perhaps there is

:36:13.:36:16.

That you can only go so far with the antics,

:36:17.:36:19.

For those who see Westminster populated by identical cutouts, Oris

:36:20.:36:33.

Johnson did not just stand out, he dwarfed many more senior

:36:34.:36:37.

politicians, there is now a Boris Johnson shaped hole in the

:36:38.:36:41.

Conservative leadership campaign and, who knows, perhaps in politics

:36:42.:36:46.

as well. The crimes he has the most astonishing ability to communicate

:36:47.:36:49.

with the wider public, to carry them with him, on television and even if

:36:50.:36:52.

he walks into a shopping centre, most politicians, they would be

:36:53.:36:57.

irritated by someone in a shopping centre, if they are on their way to

:36:58.:37:02.

the chemist, but Boris transforms the atmosphere, at least until the

:37:03.:37:06.

last few days. Even the people who regarded him as a clown found him

:37:07.:37:12.

entertaining. In that respect he was a bigger figure than anybody else in

:37:13.:37:19.

British politics. Are you going to upstage the Prime Minister? The

:37:20.:37:23.

cameras would have been drawn to Oris in a room full of rock stars

:37:24.:37:26.

and models, other mere politicians never stood a chance and for

:37:27.:37:30.

political journalists, desperate for something interesting to report

:37:31.:37:38.

upon, he was the mother load. We haven't had a story all week, help

:37:39.:37:46.

us! Say something ill considered. I speak round, unvarnished

:37:47.:37:50.

common-sense! Boris did not disappoint, except those he worked

:37:51.:37:53.

for, party leaders found him unmanageable, distracting, he could

:37:54.:37:58.

shred the meticulously formulated newsgroup with a raffle of his

:37:59.:38:02.

health. What do you do with a problem like Boris? He has strong

:38:03.:38:09.

views about lots of things... David Cameron's predecessor, Michael

:38:10.:38:11.

Howard, had fired Boris Johnson from a junior French French job for lying

:38:12.:38:16.

about an affair, Cameron offered his former school friend redemption in

:38:17.:38:21.

municipal politics. -- from a junior front bench job. Are we ready? Yes

:38:22.:38:28.

we are! As London mayor during the Olympics, Oris Johnson went

:38:29.:38:32.

international, seen by his party as very useful, if a little too fond of

:38:33.:38:38.

acting the fool. That changed abruptly with the referendum and his

:38:39.:38:42.

support for vote leave, now seen as a mortal threat and the

:38:43.:38:46.

establishment went for him ruthlessly. You cannot call him a

:38:47.:38:52.

liar, he is one of those people in life you simply does not understand

:38:53.:38:55.

the difference between fact and fiction. Even those who had worked

:38:56.:38:59.

closely with him accused him of opportunism. It was a spectacular

:39:00.:39:05.

miscalculation, I don't think his heart was in it. He is a uniquely

:39:06.:39:11.

good communicator, he almost single-handedly helped deliver 17

:39:12.:39:16.

million people to vote for this course of action. In the end, having

:39:17.:39:21.

secured that victory, really, Michael Gove among others had some

:39:22.:39:26.

doubts, grave doubts, about whether Boris Johnson was going to deliver

:39:27.:39:29.

on what he persuaded the British public to vote for. There lies the

:39:30.:39:35.

mistake in the end, the miscalculation on a key issue of our

:39:36.:39:39.

day, and he has paid the price for it, the rest of us are paying

:39:40.:39:44.

heavily for it as well. After the result, the anger of frustrated

:39:45.:39:51.

remain voters focused on Boris, and for a man used to popularity, it was

:39:52.:39:57.

deeply upsetting. After his many mishaps, Boris Johnson has been fond

:39:58.:40:02.

of quoting this song. But can he really gets up again this time? If

:40:03.:40:13.

asked to play some minor role, in the next Conservative government, he

:40:14.:40:17.

will play it with good grace, and he will wait and see what happens. So

:40:18.:40:21.

we have not seen the end of Boris Johnson? I certainly don't think

:40:22.:40:27.

that we have seen the end of him. Boris Johnson will probably always

:40:28.:40:31.

be able to draw a crowd at will, but some are doubtful that he will ever

:40:32.:40:38.

be a serious political force again. As a politician whose main qualities

:40:39.:40:43.

were integrity, political courage, and an ability to unite people and

:40:44.:40:47.

make them smile and feel good about themselves and feel good about the

:40:48.:40:51.

UK, I am not sure there is a way back after the events of the last

:40:52.:40:55.

few weeks and months. National treasure, yes, politician, busted.

:40:56.:41:00.

It's the point in the programme where we sit back with a drink,

:41:01.:41:03.

and mull over the political dramas of the day.

:41:04.:41:05.

This is a bit of a story here, the Daily Mail, look at the cover, a

:41:06.:41:20.

party in flames and why it must be Theresa Yesterday, Sarah Vine seemed

:41:21.:41:28.

to imply... She has been disappointed in those hopes.

:41:29.:41:35.

Regarding Paul Dacre. She looks like the winner, the tag of treachery is

:41:36.:41:39.

going to stick, it is one thing for him to decide as a matter of

:41:40.:41:45.

principle to back Brexit and go against his old friend David

:41:46.:41:48.

Cameron, it is another for him to drop his friend, his close friend of

:41:49.:41:54.

30 years, at a moments notice, leaving him absolutely no scope

:41:55.:41:58.

except to withdraw. Politics is a dirty game, but many people will

:41:59.:42:02.

say, that is going too far. You would support Theresa May? Yes,

:42:03.:42:07.

reluctantly, she is remain and I am Brexit. She has integrity. She knows

:42:08.:42:20.

what she wants, and she will have a broad base. She might get a Murdoch

:42:21.:42:31.

endorsement. Murdoch loves Michael Gove. That is a bit more combative.

:42:32.:42:38.

What about the other two? The Treasury tag, has it finished in? A

:42:39.:42:43.

number of Tory MPs that I spoke with, not just those backing Boris

:42:44.:42:46.

but more generally were shot with Michael Gove's betrayal of Boris and

:42:47.:42:51.

the way that he did it at the last minute, leaving Boris Johnson with

:42:52.:42:53.

only a few minutes before the deadline for nominations what he was

:42:54.:42:58.

going to do, that is a huge trust issue for Michael Gove to go ahead

:42:59.:43:01.

with in any circumstances, let alone when he needs to reunite the Tory

:43:02.:43:06.

party after this incredibly divisive referendum, the lead should contest

:43:07.:43:09.

is going to be very bitter, he will struggle to make the case for him

:43:10.:43:17.

being leader and the Tory party... He cannot be a healer. You have

:43:18.:43:21.

written an excoriating piece about Boris a couple of months ago, so you

:43:22.:43:25.

must have been pleased that he has been edged out. I thought he would

:43:26.:43:29.

be a great liability to the Conservative Party in any general

:43:30.:43:32.

election, yes, from the party 's point of view, I am pleased. I'm not

:43:33.:43:36.

quite sure that Stephen and Isabella are right about the effect of the

:43:37.:43:45.

assassinations that Michael Gove has carried out on the Parliamentary

:43:46.:43:49.

Conservative Party, they quite like assassinations, they quite like

:43:50.:43:53.

toughness, his old image was really a rather unworldly, terribly

:43:54.:43:57.

intellectual, elaborate the courteous character, we have seen a

:43:58.:44:01.

new Michael Gove, some people will like that. Who are you supporting in

:44:02.:44:07.

this? In ten years' time I would be supporting Stephen Crabb, at the

:44:08.:44:11.

moment, Theresa May seems to be the unifying candidate. Do we feel the

:44:12.:44:15.

Conservative Party has found equilibria? Whether it is

:44:16.:44:19.

sustainable or not, the candidates in to be saying the same things, in

:44:20.:44:25.

their hustings launches, opportunity capitalism... Absolutely, for

:44:26.:44:31.

instance, it has been a bad week for the old attorney and, suddenly, the

:44:32.:44:35.

party has become quite levelling. Very keen to raise the condition of

:44:36.:44:40.

the poor, not sure about capitalism, it would like a kind of guided

:44:41.:44:44.

capitalism. There is a gathering consensus around and importantly

:44:45.:44:49.

different version of conservativism. Do you buy that? A lot of talk,

:44:50.:44:56.

let's see where the action is. Progressive, but they want to help

:44:57.:45:00.

the poor. We have heard this before. Let's see what happens. One

:45:01.:45:04.

significant thing, as said about the deficit. She has said, let's not

:45:05.:45:10.

worry about that. Everything we have heard from Osborne has been thrown

:45:11.:45:13.

out of the window. Extraordinary development. So money things are

:45:14.:45:17.

happening at once, difficult to take it in!

:45:18.:45:28.

I think the Tory party will pull together. I think it is unlikely

:45:29.:45:37.

Michael Gove can win this, I think Theresa May will win it. They even

:45:38.:45:43.

managed to reach a consensus on Brexit. All of the candidates have

:45:44.:45:49.

made it clear they will implement an exit. No one has said we must resist

:45:50.:45:54.

this. Stephen Crabb and Theresa May as Remain campaigners have made that

:45:55.:46:00.

clear. Matthew, you were a remain, I wonder whether now you feel the

:46:01.:46:07.

party, which is so clearly, and Matthew Hancock said it again, this

:46:08.:46:12.

is not a party for Remain. We are all excited about personal dramas,

:46:13.:46:16.

but there is some huge policy decisions ahead. Our terms of

:46:17.:46:21.

departure from the European Union is one of them. Matthew Hancock did not

:46:22.:46:26.

bite on your suggestion that if the best deal we can come up with looks

:46:27.:46:34.

awful, we might think again. But we might. You still think there is a

:46:35.:46:40.

bit of Remain Hope left in the party? Absolutely, they are

:46:41.:46:43.

terrified of this issue coming up again. They don't want a general

:46:44.:46:48.

election. Only Ukip could do well in a general election. I will wonder if

:46:49.:46:54.

there will be a leadership election. I was going to ask the same. If you

:46:55.:47:02.

are backing to Reza may, do we need to take the country to this agony

:47:03.:47:08.

for the next 11 weeks? Boris has only just hold out and there are

:47:09.:47:12.

other impressive candidates. We have other backers of Boris who might

:47:13.:47:16.

come out in favour for Andrea Leadsome. We haven't talked about

:47:17.:47:23.

her. Maybe we should talk about the other candidates. If MPs go ahead

:47:24.:47:31.

with this and boat the two that go forward to the members. Here you do

:47:32.:47:37.

think the other member will be? I have a hunch there may be two women.

:47:38.:47:43.

That is based on conversations with Tory MPs, who have been impressed

:47:44.:47:47.

with Andrea Leadsome. It would be amazing if he didn't have someone

:47:48.:47:53.

who had campaigned for Brexit. Andrea Leadsome was incredibly

:47:54.:47:56.

impressive during the referendum campaign. She was very, very good,

:47:57.:48:03.

as was Boris, but he doesn't have any rewards for it. It is possible

:48:04.:48:09.

that she could be one of the final two. Would you mind if the

:48:10.:48:14.

leadership election was called off? The Tory party has its rituals, so

:48:15.:48:22.

it would be unlikely to do that. It would be good for the country,

:48:23.:48:26.

better to get a Prime Minister before the 9th of September. We are

:48:27.:48:33.

looking at the potential of having a new British Prime Minister, an

:48:34.:48:37.

American president and the German Chancellor. Angela May with batch --

:48:38.:48:44.

Theresa May would match Angela Merkel. Let's leave it there.

:48:45.:48:51.

Meanwhile, back in the real world the great challenge of renegotiating

:48:52.:48:54.

a new EU relationship still confronts us.

:48:55.:48:56.

The pre-posturing is still underway, we don't know which comments to take

:48:57.:48:59.

But when Article 50 is eventually invoked, we'll be negotiating

:49:00.:49:04.

with the unelected EU Commission acting under the influence

:49:05.:49:06.

of the heads of state in the European Council

:49:07.:49:07.

A key issue for us is trade, and our diplomatic editor Mark Urban

:49:08.:49:20.

who's in Brussels this week, managed to sit down

:49:21.:49:22.

If we look at Canada for example, talks started seven years ago,

:49:23.:49:26.

No, we're done, we just have to be...

:49:27.:49:31.

Maybe, it depends on how it's ratified.

:49:32.:49:44.

In the light of that, is the article 50 provision that EU

:49:45.:49:47.

and the UK have two tie everything up in two years realistic?

:49:48.:49:50.

The article 50 has actually never been tested, it's a new article

:49:51.:49:53.

And as far as I understand it, it is about regulating how the exit

:49:54.:49:58.

Member states can prolong the period if it takes longer,

:49:59.:50:05.

but the actual relationship between us and the United Kingdom

:50:06.:50:08.

in the future will not be negotiated in article 50.

:50:09.:50:12.

That is the terms of exit, so that will take even longer.

:50:13.:50:15.

It's to negotiate the new relationship?

:50:16.:50:18.

It is about the terms of exit, so there are two negotiations.

:50:19.:50:24.

First you exit, then you negotiate the terms,

:50:25.:50:27.

the new relationship, whatever that is.

:50:28.:50:32.

So what position do you see the UK being in between exiting

:50:33.:50:35.

and having its new terms of trade in place?

:50:36.:50:38.

Right now, they are members, we are 28.

:50:39.:50:41.

And until they exit, they will remain members.

:50:42.:50:44.

So the referendum, which of course we take note and respect,

:50:45.:50:47.

First, there has to be a notification, which the next time

:50:48.:50:53.

Then the process can start and then we will have to see

:50:54.:50:59.

all the practicalities that are linked to this

:51:00.:51:01.

And then depending on how the United Kingdom, they have

:51:02.:51:07.

to define what kind of relationship they want to have with the EU.

:51:08.:51:11.

Then that'll have to be negotiated by our heads of states.

:51:12.:51:18.

But while they are working towards that...

:51:19.:51:23.

But once those two years are up, they are out?

:51:24.:51:28.

In the years, if we follow the Canadian example,

:51:29.:51:44.

it could be even seven or eight years before a new trade deal

:51:45.:51:48.

is in place, on what basis are the EU 27 and Britain doing business,

:51:49.:51:51.

There would be a third country there.

:51:52.:51:58.

But that then presumably would be very damaging for supply chains,

:51:59.:52:01.

all sorts of things, French companies,

:52:02.:52:02.

Danish companies, British companies?

:52:03.:52:04.

Do you worry that we've passed at high tide of openness to free

:52:05.:52:14.

trade, increasingly when you hear for example, French objections

:52:15.:52:19.

to what you are trying to negotiate with the Americans, that

:52:20.:52:22.

protectionism, nationalism will prevent further major

:52:23.:52:25.

There are lots of studies we've had, there has been won from the OECD,

:52:26.:52:37.

there has been one from different independent trade related think

:52:38.:52:40.

tanks and organisations coming lately that shows protectionism

:52:41.:52:42.

And we see all over the world, not just in Europe, the US

:52:43.:52:47.

and elsewhere as well, hostility towards trade,

:52:48.:52:50.

which worries me because trade of course is a fabulous mean

:52:51.:52:54.

to increase jobs and investment and bring people closer to each other.

:52:55.:52:58.

And there is a raise in protectionism and that's why it

:52:59.:53:05.

saddens me that the UK was traditionally a friend of free

:53:06.:53:08.

The voice defending free trade will be weaker.

:53:09.:53:22.

At the beginning of the programme we saw this panel of Conservative Party

:53:23.:53:31.

members. The most powerful people in the country at the moment because

:53:32.:53:35.

they are picking the next Prime Minister. You have heard a lot

:53:36.:53:41.

today? One of the things we can be proud of is we have a good range of

:53:42.:53:47.

candidates within the party to choose from. Stephen Crabb has a

:53:48.:53:50.

working-class background. Michael Gove is an intellectual. We can be

:53:51.:53:54.

comforted by the fact in comparison to Labour. But I am undecided, I

:53:55.:53:58.

want to see what they can offer, especially to the country. Two of

:53:59.:54:05.

view, not supporting Theresa May. You have heard people saying, scrap

:54:06.:54:09.

the leadership election and anoint to Reza may because the Daily Mail

:54:10.:54:15.

backs her and a lot of MPs are backing her. Would you be annoyed if

:54:16.:54:23.

the contest was taken out of your hands? Absolutely. Democracy is not

:54:24.:54:29.

in the hands of Paul Dacre. The idea you have two ignore the people, is

:54:30.:54:35.

preposterous. Let's not pretend you are the people. It is on vertical

:54:36.:54:40.

Michael Gove treacherous because he followed his conviction. I admire

:54:41.:54:45.

him for going against his friends, if he believes for the betterment of

:54:46.:54:49.

the country that Brexiter was the right option. I don't think it's

:54:50.:54:56.

treacherous. Do you think it will stick? I don't think that is

:54:57.:54:59.

accurate. He believed Britain is better off outside the EU. Who do

:55:00.:55:05.

you predict will win? Theresa May. Boris. Michael Gove. Andrea

:55:06.:55:15.

Leadsome. Theresa May. Thank you for coming in.

:55:16.:55:19.

I dare say our attention will return to the Labour Party tomorrow.

:55:20.:55:25.

The 1st of July on Friday, but no sign of the weather pattern

:55:26.:55:44.

changing. 20 places seeing sunshine through a good part of the morning

:55:45.:55:50.

but the clouds develop and the rain gets

:55:51.:55:52.

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