29/06/2016 Newsnight


29/06/2016

It is Brexit plus six. Jeremy Corbyn is feeling the heat. Members are angry. Tories are eyeing Number 10. The French are talking free movement. The Scots want to stay.


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Transcript


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Question - what do we want from Brexit?

:00:00.:00:07.

We'll ask how realistic our aims and ambitions are.

:00:08.:00:23.

We'll hear from Brussels, and an exclusive interview

:00:24.:00:26.

with the French finance minister who offers a little

:00:27.:00:28.

Meanwhile, at Westminster, the Labour Party drama continues.

:00:29.:00:47.

Might be in my party's interest for him to sit there. It is not in the

:00:48.:00:55.

national interest. For heaven's sake, go. What about Europe? Where

:00:56.:00:58.

were you when we needed you? We've been talking

:00:59.:01:01.

to the grassroots. This is a coup, not only

:01:02.:01:02.

long planned but a coup against the values that

:01:03.:01:05.

Jeremy Corbyn has expressed so well It is a coup against the Labour

:01:06.:01:07.

Party membership. And leave or remain -

:01:08.:01:12.

what's Scotland thinking About the UK these days? I've

:01:13.:01:24.

switched sides, and I have decided to vote Yes to independence from the

:01:25.:01:29.

United Kingdom in another referendum. I know a lot of my

:01:30.:01:30.

friends have also swapped sides. The referendum reaction phase

:01:31.:01:33.

is over, the thinking phase is now underway as to what Brexit

:01:34.:01:38.

is really going to mean. Thinking caps - and berets -

:01:39.:01:41.

on. And the issue around

:01:42.:01:44.

which all revolves is this - Can we get decent access

:01:45.:01:46.

to the single market without also having to accept full freedom

:01:47.:01:53.

of movement, which the voters It's the big issue in the EU

:01:54.:01:55.

negotiation, and in the Tory Party We'll have more on the Tory

:01:56.:02:02.

leadership shortly. The Europeans are pretty keen

:02:03.:02:05.

to play hardball in defence of free movement, but is it credible

:02:06.:02:11.

for them to resist British requests for a brake on migration,

:02:12.:02:14.

when many of their own citizens Gabriel Gatehouse is in Paris today

:02:15.:02:16.

for us, and he sat down for an exclusive interview

:02:17.:02:21.

with the French Finance Minister, Michel Sapin, who gave a first chink

:02:22.:02:25.

of a sign that there may Your President, Francois Hollande,

:02:26.:02:40.

has said the United Kingdom should leave quickly. How quickly?

:02:41.:03:03.

Would freedom of movement be a red line, non-negotiable? Some people

:03:04.:03:10.

have suggested it would, for Britain's access to the single

:03:11.:03:11.

market? If I understand you correctly,

:03:12.:03:47.

premium of movement is negotiable? Everything is negotiable? --

:03:48.:03:50.

freedom. Who should be in charge of the

:03:51.:04:30.

negotiations on the European Union side? Is it the commission for the

:04:31.:04:32.

European Council? I ask, because I imagine the

:04:33.:04:47.

Council, representing as it does the member states, some of whom also

:04:48.:04:50.

have their own issues with freedom of movement, might be more inclined

:04:51.:04:54.

to give a bit on that in negotiations than the commission?

:04:55.:05:01.

Many people are saying nothing will change for at least two years, until

:05:02.:05:08.

the coupling is complete, if you like. But, in financial areas, do

:05:09.:05:16.

you expect changes to begin earlier than that? Do you envisage some

:05:17.:05:21.

French banks, perhaps, moving their operations out of London to Paris?

:05:22.:06:06.

Are you surprised that the level of planning for this on the British

:06:07.:06:14.

side, or lack thereof? And the leaders of the Leave camp

:06:15.:06:42.

are likely to be the leaders of the country soon.

:06:43.:06:52.

I want to ask you about the nuclear power plant at Hinkley Point. I know

:06:53.:07:02.

there is a final decision expected in September. Does Brexiter change

:07:03.:07:04.

your calculation is? Let me put the question this way, do

:07:05.:07:37.

you think it is less likely now to be agreed?

:07:38.:08:01.

In other words, it's too early to say? Yes. Minister, thank you very

:08:02.:08:06.

much. It sounds as though Michel Sapin

:08:07.:08:12.

is breaking with the European line by suggesting that freedom

:08:13.:08:14.

of movement could be negotiable, although there are nuances

:08:15.:08:18.

in all this that don't Our diplomatic editor Mark Urban

:08:19.:08:21.

is in Brussels where the leaders of the 27 other EU members sat down

:08:22.:08:26.

without David Cameron Mark, what did you make of that line

:08:27.:08:38.

from the French finance minister, that everything is on the table?

:08:39.:08:43.

Well, fascinating. The truth is that we have to confess this to the

:08:44.:08:47.

viewer, we are in such an unprecedented situation that it is

:08:48.:08:51.

quite hard to calibrate Smoggie statements and some of these

:08:52.:08:53.

positions. If you take the harsh words from the 27 leaders here today

:08:54.:09:00.

at face value, what Michel Sapin is saying is that we haven't received

:09:01.:09:04.

the British ideas yet and, until we do, everything is on the table. You

:09:05.:09:08.

could read it that way, nothing more than that. I think if you voted

:09:09.:09:12.

Leave in the referendum, you could also take some comfort from the fact

:09:13.:09:17.

that he was willing to go on to that area of freedom of movement and

:09:18.:09:20.

there did seem to be something that he was willing to talk about in

:09:21.:09:24.

broad terms, even if it is not part of the so-called Norwegian model or

:09:25.:09:29.

a specific template. I think it is a fascinating thing that the EU has

:09:30.:09:33.

used such harsh language today with Britain, really to try to get out

:09:34.:09:37.

the meaning of what was said and the degree to which it was meant. I met

:09:38.:09:44.

earlier with the Swedish Prime Minister, to ask him if there was an

:09:45.:09:47.

element in this really trying to Britain.

:09:48.:09:50.

I don't hear that kind of discussion, and I would

:09:51.:09:52.

like to underline that Great Britain will stay a good partner, also,

:09:53.:09:55.

And all the member states are expressing that we want a good

:09:56.:10:00.

relationship with the United Kingdom.

:10:01.:10:03.

Do you think it would be possible, though, for Britain to get a free

:10:04.:10:07.

trade package, like Norway's, but makes amendments to that?

:10:08.:10:10.

Or is it a take it or leave it offer from your point of view?

:10:11.:10:13.

Depending on exactly what you mean, but yes, you have different options.

:10:14.:10:16.

But there is no question that if you want to have the single

:10:17.:10:22.

market, if you want access to the single market,

:10:23.:10:25.

you need also to approve of the four freedoms.

:10:26.:10:28.

Freedom of movement is clearly critical there.

:10:29.:10:35.

Does that mean any deal in which the UK tried to amend

:10:36.:10:38.

or soften that and retain access to the single market?

:10:39.:10:40.

You might argue we are getting slightly mixed messages, but they

:10:41.:10:53.

have only had a few days to get their ducks in a row. One thing they

:10:54.:10:59.

are all saying is there is no negotiations until we invoke Article

:11:00.:11:04.

50. How rigidly is that line being applied? Well, let's use a military

:11:05.:11:10.

analogy, I sometimes like those. Clearly, close combat cannot begin

:11:11.:11:18.

until a new British Government has chosen one of these options, is it

:11:19.:11:22.

like Canada, Norway, something completely different? It can't start

:11:23.:11:26.

until that point. On the other hand, despite the euro flannel we have

:11:27.:11:31.

heard about there not being any negotiations before Article 50 is

:11:32.:11:35.

invoked, we have heard opening salvos in the past two days. The

:11:36.:11:39.

Prime Minister saying yesterday to the other leaders, you will have to

:11:40.:11:43.

look at this issue of free movement. The leader saying back, don't expect

:11:44.:11:48.

to two Leave cherry pick or get a Norway without free movement. Today,

:11:49.:11:52.

the opening, defining positions are being laid out. In the coming

:11:53.:11:55.

months, while Britain is choosing its new leader and the options are

:11:56.:11:59.

being refined, there will be talks between the different key European

:12:00.:12:03.

powers, the French, the Germans, the others like that, and they will come

:12:04.:12:08.

together at around the time that Britain's new Prime Minister is

:12:09.:12:14.

chosen, in Slovakia, to finesse and home down their position in

:12:15.:12:18.

anticipation of what the new British Government will choose. At that

:12:19.:12:21.

point, I think we should get much more clarity.

:12:22.:12:24.

Getting our EU negotiating stance straight is entwined with a second

:12:25.:12:26.

important decision - who will be the next Prime Minister?

:12:27.:12:29.

In effect, the process of choosing both is down

:12:30.:12:31.

to the Conservative Party, which is in full leadership election mode,

:12:32.:12:34.

Nick Watt, our political editor, is with me

:12:35.:12:40.

We have had some candidates declaring and also some hints of

:12:41.:12:47.

some tensions, perhaps, between Boris Johnson and Michael Gove? Yes,

:12:48.:12:52.

we have the fascinating leaking of an e-mail written by Michael Gove's

:12:53.:12:57.

wife, a Daily Mail columnist, suggesting not is all sweetness and

:12:58.:13:01.

light at the top of the Boris Johnson campaign. Michael Gove is

:13:02.:13:03.

co-chair of the campaign and his wife says you have to demand

:13:04.:13:07.

specific guarantees and assurances from Boris Johnson before you

:13:08.:13:11.

support. Intriguingly, Sarah Vine also wrote that you come below that

:13:12.:13:19.

husband, bring to the campaign the support and confidence of Rupert

:13:20.:13:21.

Murdoch and Paul Dacre, the daily mail editor. This is what wrote.

:13:22.:13:33.

Whoever said the era of press barons is over? This race is going to be

:13:34.:13:43.

well and truly underway with the launch of the Boris Johnson and

:13:44.:13:46.

Theresa May campaigns tomorrow, so we thought we would take a look at

:13:47.:13:50.

how the contest is going and the way it is shaping the Brexiter

:13:51.:13:51.

negotiations. Barely a week has passed

:13:52.:13:53.

since David Cameron's resignation as Prime Minister,

:13:54.:13:55.

but blink and you'll miss the start The favourite, Boris Johnson,

:13:56.:13:58.

will declare this morning, The young outsider, Stephen Crabb,

:13:59.:14:02.

well, he declared this morning. Having been brought up in a council

:14:03.:14:10.

house by a single mother, Stephen Crabb's background could not

:14:11.:14:14.

be more different to the Etonian Stephen Crabb, you are the underdog

:14:15.:14:18.

and you come from a very different background to the average

:14:19.:14:25.

Tory grandee. A bit like Margaret

:14:26.:14:28.

Thatcher in 1975. Are there any lessons

:14:29.:14:31.

for you from that campaign? I'm not afraid of being the underdog

:14:32.:14:34.

but I actually think there is space in this leadership campaign,

:14:35.:14:38.

this leadership debate, for not just a coronation,

:14:39.:14:43.

not even for a two-horse race. I think we have to get past this

:14:44.:14:47.

Boris-stop Boris dichotomy. Mindful of the fate

:14:48.:14:51.

of the last blonde to stand for the Tory leadership -

:14:52.:14:53.

Michael Heseltine - Boris Johnson kept something of

:14:54.:14:55.

a low-profile at Westminster today. But he will be out of the traps

:14:56.:14:59.

in the morning with a declaration that he offers a chance to believe

:15:00.:15:03.

in ourselves and a hope that he will be able to unite

:15:04.:15:06.

the Remainders and Leavers I am backing Boris Johnson

:15:07.:15:09.

because the people have been very clear that they want to leave

:15:10.:15:15.

the European Union. They were right to

:15:16.:15:19.

make that decision. I think they expect that process

:15:20.:15:21.

to be led by someone Boris has sent confusing signals

:15:22.:15:23.

this week over his stance on the two core issues

:15:24.:15:30.

at the heart of the referendum. Free movement of people and access

:15:31.:15:33.

to the single market. If we have to except freedom

:15:34.:15:37.

of movement, if freedom of movement was the single biggest objection

:15:38.:15:43.

to leaving the EU in the first place, we are going to lose

:15:44.:15:47.

the advantages of membership of the EU whilst not gaining

:15:48.:15:50.

necessarily very much in return. Those who supported Brexit made

:15:51.:15:55.

a number of assertions and promises which, in practice,

:15:56.:15:59.

are going to be very difficult, One grandee who is supporting

:16:00.:16:02.

Theresa May wonders whether Boris lacks that Prime

:16:03.:16:12.

Ministerial gravitas. A point illustrated in the Commons

:16:13.:16:15.

with a dig at "Borisconi". I can't imagine, it just slipped

:16:16.:16:18.

out that way. And a lot of people think that

:16:19.:16:21.

Boris Johnson has been fun but they are really,

:16:22.:16:26.

really doubtful about whether he can be trusted to be serious,

:16:27.:16:29.

to apply himself. Whereas Theresa May,

:16:30.:16:31.

I think, most definitely can. And I think also, when she walks

:16:32.:16:34.

into the room to try and undertake these negotiations, she will be

:16:35.:16:38.

treated seriously but she will be Seven years as Home Secretary

:16:39.:16:42.

and she wasn't leading Whereas, I think if Boris Johnson

:16:43.:16:48.

were to go into such a room, he would get very,

:16:49.:16:54.

very short shrift. This is the first time in British

:16:55.:16:57.

history that the grassroots membership of a political party

:16:58.:17:00.

will be deciding who our That is quite a responsibility,

:17:01.:17:03.

given that this election will be shaping the negotiations

:17:04.:17:10.

about Britain's place in Europe that will set the course of UK politics

:17:11.:17:13.

for decades to come. So far, the contest

:17:14.:17:18.

is following the usual path There is a clear frontrunner,

:17:19.:17:21.

but that does not guarantee victory. The odds are against

:17:22.:17:30.

the frontrunner but, frankly, I think we are now

:17:31.:17:32.

into such open territory that very little about history is a guide

:17:33.:17:36.

to what is going to happen. The wise candidate, who might very

:17:37.:17:41.

well get elected at the end of the day by the 150,000

:17:42.:17:46.

Conservative paid-up members, is one that is able not just

:17:47.:17:51.

to unify the Conservative Party but is going to be able to reach

:17:52.:17:55.

some form of consensus This evening, the Tories

:17:56.:17:58.

were meant to put the troubles of the referendum behind them

:17:59.:18:04.

at their annual summer party held But there are reports of trouble

:18:05.:18:07.

over the seating plan worthy If Remainers and Leavers

:18:08.:18:14.

are uncomfortable about sitting together, is there any hope

:18:15.:18:21.

the new leader can heal Joining me now is Conservative MP

:18:22.:18:23.

and Chair of the Foreign Affairs select committee Crispin Blunt -

:18:24.:18:29.

he's backing Boris. You are explaining something, you

:18:30.:18:40.

not about the negotiation because if it fails, there still in an OK

:18:41.:18:47.

situation? The committee looked at this and this report in April and I

:18:48.:18:50.

suggest people read that as it is highly likely or European partners

:18:51.:18:55.

cannot agree a strategy between themselves, if there is a qualified

:18:56.:19:00.

minority blocking any deal, those people who want to deal positively

:19:01.:19:05.

with the UK or those who want to be seen to punish us. ... Then that

:19:06.:19:12.

does not work and the European Parliament asked to approve this. If

:19:13.:19:18.

all that fails, we have two cell into the single market on the most

:19:19.:19:24.

favoured nation terms with talents of about 3%, 10% in some areas like

:19:25.:19:31.

cars. And that is not the end of the world. It is better than that.

:19:32.:19:38.

Because we then get control of immigration, we have control of free

:19:39.:19:46.

movement, we don't have to pay billions into the EU budget, we can

:19:47.:19:50.

decide where that gets spent. It gets better, we are regulating our

:19:51.:19:59.

own market. I understand, you think the backstop is... Can I ask you,

:20:00.:20:07.

what you understand why what Boris Johnson wrote in the Telegraph, this

:20:08.:20:12.

line about British people being able to work, study, travel and buy homes

:20:13.:20:22.

in the EU. What did he mean by that? I don't know. I don't know what

:20:23.:20:31.

Boris Johnson meant that. Can you see any outcome when that happens?

:20:32.:20:39.

We can restrict them... Can we live in the United States if we have the

:20:40.:20:45.

means? I cannot go and live in the United States. You can get a green

:20:46.:20:50.

card. You are supporting him, he has written this thing, which appears to

:20:51.:20:55.

imply that we. Them coming here but we will have the right to go there.

:20:56.:21:00.

He has just been in the middle of a campaign, he should know if that is

:21:01.:21:07.

achievable. Do you think so? My view is that we will have to come to some

:21:08.:21:11.

deal about how people can move between the UK and the rest of the

:21:12.:21:16.

European Union. Can you see them allowing us freedom of movement but

:21:17.:21:19.

us allowing them freedom of movement? Your candidate for Prime

:21:20.:21:24.

Minister, who was meant to be an expert on this, has just written...

:21:25.:21:28.

Failed quite certain that everybody is going to this in turn everything

:21:29.:21:33.

that he says because it is a significant campaign. ... He was

:21:34.:21:38.

paid several thousand pounds for this article and he wrote something

:21:39.:21:42.

that was reassuring about what the position would be for the British

:21:43.:21:47.

that appears to most commentators to be utterly wrong. Are you not

:21:48.:21:52.

worried? There is uncertainty all over the place amongst the

:21:53.:21:58.

candidates, certainly in the media. Let me finish this point. It is

:21:59.:22:02.

important in the national interests that we get as much certainty as

:22:03.:22:07.

possible about what the bottom line is for the UK. But if we take the

:22:08.:22:16.

bottom line, can I live, travel, study and via home in France? On

:22:17.:22:22.

your bottom line? No, if the negotiations... So how can Boris

:22:23.:22:27.

Johnson give me that reassurance? That is what he is seeking to

:22:28.:22:31.

achieve and it is obviously in the mutual interest of both the United

:22:32.:22:35.

Kingdom and our European partners that that is the case. In the same

:22:36.:22:41.

way... The same way as it is in our mutual interest at the tariff

:22:42.:22:46.

fishing, particularly with European partners, if they sell twice as many

:22:47.:22:50.

manufacturing goods to us as we sell to them, that they would want to see

:22:51.:22:54.

those tariffs reduced. Quickfire round? There are some issues, do you

:22:55.:22:58.

think immigration from non-EU countries, if your candidate wins,

:22:59.:23:07.

will go up or not? Promises were made to Asian communities that it

:23:08.:23:12.

would be easier to get relatives in. My view is that we should regulate

:23:13.:23:19.

immigration from outside the United Kingdom consistently across the

:23:20.:23:23.

piece. More or less from outside the EU? Irrigation to be the same. You

:23:24.:23:29.

are not going to answer that. This is more serious than trying to

:23:30.:23:36.

score... These are questions that have not been answered. And your

:23:37.:23:40.

candidate is gone to stand for Prime Minister. But you know perfectly

:23:41.:23:46.

well that the numbers of people coming into the United Kingdom are

:23:47.:23:50.

not necessarily, depending on what system you set up, it is going to

:23:51.:23:55.

depend on how many people come here. If you put a cap on the number of

:23:56.:23:59.

visas you will allow, that is one way of controlling it, and are you

:24:00.:24:07.

going to go by the number of... And finally, we're going to have control

:24:08.:24:14.

over this. We're going to do the important business of trying to

:24:15.:24:17.

protect British unskilled and semiskilled Labour and having to

:24:18.:24:20.

compete with people who have professional qualifications coming

:24:21.:24:24.

from central, eastern and southern Europe or anywhere else. That is why

:24:25.:24:30.

they are not allowed in. That is a very long way of saying you don't

:24:31.:24:33.

know if immigration will go up or not. We have to leave it there.

:24:34.:24:35.

Thank you very much. Well, Labour have provided more

:24:36.:24:37.

in the way of sparks this week, with a crisis that has given

:24:38.:24:40.

new life to the words There was no challenge

:24:41.:24:43.

to the Corbyn leadership today, Any news about Jeremy Corbyn? Chief

:24:44.:25:03.

Whip went in to see him this evening and he is sleeping on their

:25:04.:25:07.

conversation. This took place after the Deputy Leader said he should

:25:08.:25:11.

think about going. I spoke to an ally the sickening and this person

:25:12.:25:17.

told me that Jeremy Corbyn is in the very bad place. He said he is not a

:25:18.:25:20.

broken man but he is a good-hearted man. He cannot believe that friends

:25:21.:25:25.

have turned against him and he believes the decision by Ed Miliband

:25:26.:25:28.

to speak out against his leadership was an act of betrayal. And this

:25:29.:25:34.

person has broken to family members and the message coming from the

:25:35.:25:37.

family is, what are you doing to Jeremy Corbyn? The message coming

:25:38.:25:42.

from his allies in the Labour Party is, you have to protect the legacy.

:25:43.:25:48.

That is code for, do not resign as leader egos if you do, the left will

:25:49.:25:53.

lose control of the Labour Party. Because as soon as he goes, then

:25:54.:25:57.

there can obviously be a leadership contest, but if he is there and

:25:58.:26:02.

there is a challenge, he will be on the ballot paper. I was going to ask

:26:03.:26:07.

if there would be any challenge tomorrow? I presume not but I think

:26:08.:26:12.

we might have got one today, tomorrow? Angela Eagle is ready to

:26:13.:26:17.

go. She has got 51 signatures ready for a challenge or 36 signatures if

:26:18.:26:23.

it is not a challenge and a vacancy. As a understand it, there are people

:26:24.:26:27.

in her circle saying, do not challenge. Hold back, if you

:26:28.:26:33.

challenge, Jeremy Corbyn will be on the ballot paper and that will be an

:26:34.:26:37.

invitation to the momentum grassroots campaign to get on the

:26:38.:26:41.

streets and really make quite a protest for Jeremy Corbyn. Thank

:26:42.:26:42.

you. The strife in Labour has really been

:26:43.:26:45.

about who is in control of the party and, in particular,

:26:46.:26:48.

should MPs defer to MPs usually find it easier

:26:49.:26:50.

than party members to get slots on TV programmes like this,

:26:51.:26:54.

but we thought it might be more useful at this point,

:26:55.:26:57.

to hear from the grassroots, so Lewis Goodall has been sounding

:26:58.:26:59.

them out. Just a warning his piece begins

:27:00.:27:01.

with some flash photography. Last September, Jeremy Corbyn

:27:02.:27:04.

was elected with the biggest mandate Only nine months later, he faces 172

:27:05.:27:11.

of his MPs telling him to go. His opponents hope the shock Brexit

:27:12.:27:18.

result would drain his support Newsnight has spoken to 50 chairs

:27:19.:27:21.

and secretaries of local Labour Parties up and down

:27:22.:27:33.

the country who supported Of these, 45 say they would support

:27:34.:27:35.

and nominate Mr Corbyn again in the event of another

:27:36.:27:39.

leadership contest. It's fair to say they

:27:40.:27:41.

are not exactly happy Chris Williamson was an MP,

:27:42.:27:44.

but is now a party chairman in Derby The attempted coup by certain

:27:45.:28:15.

members of the Parliamentary Labour The fact is, Jeremy Corbyn

:28:16.:28:21.

was elected with an overwhelming mandate, a mandate that is

:28:22.:28:27.

unprecedented, the biggest mandate that any leader of any political

:28:28.:28:32.

party has ever achieved in history. It's very regrettable, it is a civil

:28:33.:28:35.

war that the membership Newsnight has learned that,

:28:36.:28:41.

and down the country, over the next few days,

:28:42.:28:44.

local Labour parties will be having special meetings to discuss the dire

:28:45.:28:48.

situation facing the party, like Party members are, by nature,

:28:49.:28:51.

pretty loyal to the party and I think that most of us feel

:28:52.:28:58.

quite hurt with what's We are seeing an attempted coup

:28:59.:29:01.

against Jeremy Corbyn. Furthermore, this is a coup not only

:29:02.:29:06.

long planned, but a coup against the values that

:29:07.:29:10.

Jeremy Corbyn has expressed so well I think he absolutely would win

:29:11.:29:12.

another leadership election. In the last week, 18,000 people have

:29:13.:29:19.

joined the Labour Party and 60% of them have written that the reason

:29:20.:29:24.

they were joining is to support One group that is determined to hold

:29:25.:29:27.

MPs' feet to the fire is Momentum. They are pressuring and agitating

:29:28.:29:33.

at meetings like this one, going on behind me in Camden,

:29:34.:29:35.

with Keir Starmer. They know that if they don't

:29:36.:29:38.

support Jeremy Corbyn, Indeed, one London Labour

:29:39.:29:41.

chairman told me that deselection isn't just possible

:29:42.:29:47.

for them, it's certain. They won't stop, he said,

:29:48.:29:50.

until they get the sort Tonight, Jeremy Corbyn

:29:51.:29:52.

remains defiant. But whether he wins again or loses,

:29:53.:29:59.

one thing from these The acrimony and mistrust

:30:00.:30:02.

within the party is deep. Whoever is leader, the task

:30:03.:30:05.

of rebuilding will be enormous. Lewis Goodall. More on Labour

:30:06.:30:21.

tomorrow, I expect. Economic forecasts are not very

:30:22.:30:24.

likely to be reliable, but I thought you might be

:30:25.:30:26.

interested to hear how the city economists have changed their view

:30:27.:30:29.

about economic growth over this The group Consensus Economics track

:30:30.:30:31.

all the reputable forecasts, Since the Brexit vote,

:30:32.:30:35.

the average forecast for this year's growth has been downgraded this year

:30:36.:30:38.

by half a percentage point. Next year, the growth

:30:39.:30:43.

downgraded by 1.7%. Believe the forecasts,

:30:44.:30:48.

by the end of next year, the economy will be 2.2% smaller

:30:49.:30:56.

than it would have been had And what is a loss of 2.2%

:30:57.:30:59.

of national income? Well, you remember the famous

:31:00.:31:03.

?350 million a week we were said 2.2% of national income

:31:04.:31:06.

is ?350 million every We're all trying to get our heads

:31:07.:31:10.

around the effects of Brexit. Our business editor

:31:11.:31:18.

Helen Thomas is with me. Helen, any signs of gloom, doom or

:31:19.:31:32.

buoyancy? First things first, it was a good day in the markets. The FTSE

:31:33.:31:36.

100 is actually back up above what it was before the referendum result.

:31:37.:31:41.

That is good news. The FTSE 250 and the pound also had a good day, but

:31:42.:31:45.

they are still well down on where we were last week. The economic story

:31:46.:31:50.

is still really uncertainty. In that environment, we are looking for any

:31:51.:31:52.

early indicators we can offer what is going on out there. One area is

:31:53.:31:57.

hiring and hiring intentions. We have the first look at some data

:31:58.:32:04.

from Tam Dalyell, the professional body for human resources, they have

:32:05.:32:08.

done a snap survey of their members. Here are some numbers. One thing to

:32:09.:32:12.

emphasise a very early days. This is recruitment and tension over the

:32:13.:32:15.

next five months. About 50% say it is too early to say, about 30% say

:32:16.:32:20.

no particular change. But when you go on, you have 18% saying they are

:32:21.:32:26.

less likely to hire, and then 14% talking about a recruitment freeze.

:32:27.:32:31.

Getting down to the nitty-gritty, about 9% are saying they are more

:32:32.:32:36.

likely to cut jobs. A side note on that data, it was a question where

:32:37.:32:40.

you could take more than one box, so there is doubling up in brackets.

:32:41.:32:47.

Another big picture takeaway is how unprepared businesses were for this

:32:48.:32:51.

result. Do you have a post Brexit plan? 6% have won, 26% are working

:32:52.:32:57.

on one currently, quite frantically, you might think! 54% still don't

:32:58.:33:01.

have one in place. You can see why people might be. This is obviously

:33:02.:33:09.

still before we have proper data, are there any other early signs? We

:33:10.:33:15.

should stress we are really in reading economic tea leaves

:33:16.:33:21.

territory. Nothing definitive. Springboard monitors footfall in

:33:22.:33:26.

shopping centres, high streets and retail parks. Last week, they

:33:27.:33:30.

thought it was down 5% on the year before. They say they saw a marked

:33:31.:33:34.

deterioration in the second half of the week after the referendum

:33:35.:33:37.

result, compared to the first half of the week. There are lots of

:33:38.:33:43.

reasons we go shopping or not. Football! Yes, and a big one is the

:33:44.:33:47.

weather. Springboard said they checked the weather and it is

:33:48.:33:51.

broadly similar to last year. They do think there was a deterioration

:33:52.:33:55.

after the result of the referendum. These are small, early signals,

:33:56.:34:01.

nothing definitive. As you say, until we get any hard data, it is

:34:02.:34:07.

what we got. A letter written to the Times in the wake of the referendum

:34:08.:34:10.

result suggested the United Kingdom should be renamed Poundland, as the

:34:11.:34:13.

currency is the only thing that we have in common.

:34:14.:34:15.

It may be a slight exaggeration, but it is certainly the case

:34:16.:34:18.

that there is great anxiety in Scotland about being dragged out

:34:19.:34:21.

of the EU against the wishes of the majority of its voters,

:34:22.:34:24.

and lots of talk about a second referendum on Scottish independence.

:34:25.:34:26.

So will that really happen - and is there any way

:34:27.:34:29.

Outside the Scottish Parliament, old friends gather.

:34:30.:34:39.

Veterans of the 2014 campaign for Scottish independence meet

:34:40.:34:43.

with renewed energy, the same purpose but wildly

:34:44.:34:45.

A demand that Scotland stays in the European Union.

:34:46.:34:55.

The political case for independence has never been as strong.

:34:56.:34:58.

The argument we made that it doesn't really matter what way Scotland

:34:59.:35:01.

votes in the UK, it can always be overruled,

:35:02.:35:03.

We've seen it happen in a most dramatic fashion.

:35:04.:35:08.

Many of the people I've been speaking to in this

:35:09.:35:10.

crowd voted for Scottish independence in 2014.

:35:11.:35:13.

So, in a sense, we could perhaps discount the views of this group

:35:14.:35:16.

of people that are already on the side of an

:35:17.:35:19.

The question is, how much has this trauma,

:35:20.:35:23.

this Brexit referendum, had an impact on those

:35:24.:35:25.

We need to keep pressure on people in that building behind us...

:35:26.:35:31.

According to the polls, at least, there are plenty of people

:35:32.:35:34.

who are now reassessing their opinion of independence.

:35:35.:35:37.

I voted No in the previous Scottish independence referendum.

:35:38.:35:42.

In this EU referendum, again, I voted to remain with the EU.

:35:43.:35:47.

But now, based on this outcome, I have switched sides and decided

:35:48.:35:50.

to vote to Yes to Scottish independence from the

:35:51.:35:53.

United Kingdom, should we have another referendum.

:35:54.:35:55.

And I know plenty of my friends have changed their minds as well.

:35:56.:36:00.

But while the political case may have strengthened,

:36:01.:36:02.

Since the 2014 referendum, the oil industry in Scotland has

:36:03.:36:07.

Oil prices are roughly half what they were in the Scottish

:36:08.:36:13.

The IFS puts Scotland's fiscal gap between overall spending and overall

:36:14.:36:17.

revenues at around ?10 billion a year and widening.

:36:18.:36:23.

Any future independence offer will have to be very different

:36:24.:36:26.

from that presented to the Scottish people in 2014.

:36:27.:36:29.

It will have to be ruthlessly honest and tell some hard truths.

:36:30.:36:32.

Independence will be an expensive and difficult business,

:36:33.:36:35.

but we will go into it with our eyes open, if you like.

:36:36.:36:38.

That, at least, is the kind of offer that will have to be made.

:36:39.:36:41.

That will be a very sobering experience.

:36:42.:36:43.

It may be that this will be a difficult argument to win,

:36:44.:36:46.

but it is probably the only Yes argument that could win.

:36:47.:36:49.

On the table for David Cameron yesterday, nothing save

:36:50.:36:54.

For Nicola Sturgeon today, a spread stacked with nibbles and,

:36:55.:37:00.

After all, creative rule bending is an EU artform.

:37:01.:37:07.

I think it would be very unlikely that Scotland would be recognised

:37:08.:37:10.

as a member state without having achieved independence from the rest

:37:11.:37:12.

of the United Kingdom at a domestic level.

:37:13.:37:16.

But it is an interesting question, whether the EU can adapt

:37:17.:37:19.

so as to give some sort of protection, autonomy

:37:20.:37:22.

status to the regions of a former member state.

:37:23.:37:27.

Because this isn't simply a matter of law, it's a matter

:37:28.:37:30.

Always first a question of political will, with the law to be put

:37:31.:37:35.

These are very early days, of course, but there is no sign yet

:37:36.:37:41.

The EU President Donald Tusk and member states have

:37:42.:37:47.

so far refused to meet with the Scottish First Minister

:37:48.:37:50.

There is no shortage of bits of Europe that would like to be

:37:51.:37:57.

treated as separate in EU negotiations, not least in Spain

:37:58.:38:00.

who, we were told today in a press conference,

:38:01.:38:02.

opposes any negotiation by anyone other than the Government

:38:03.:38:04.

Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy argued emphatically if the United Kingdom

:38:05.:38:10.

Nicola Sturgeon, then, didn't leave with anything concrete.

:38:11.:38:20.

I've received a lot of sympathy and a lot of good wishes today.

:38:21.:38:23.

That, of course, doesn't translate into an automatic

:38:24.:38:27.

easy path for Scotland, but it does mean I leave Brussels

:38:28.:38:32.

tonight to travel back to Edinburgh in good heart and optimistic.

:38:33.:38:40.

There are, though, some who think we could get through this

:38:41.:38:42.

constitutional crisis, if that is what it is,

:38:43.:38:45.

by MPs getting together and agreeing to ignore the people,

:38:46.:38:47.

ignore the outcome of the referendum.

:38:48.:38:51.

I'm on my way now to meet someone who is famous for framing

:38:52.:38:54.

Former Labour MP Tam Dalyell came up with the famous West

:38:55.:39:00.

As passionate today as ever about the sovereignty

:39:01.:39:05.

MPs should have the balls to use their best judgment,

:39:06.:39:14.

If their best judgment, as I understand it is the best

:39:15.:39:23.

judgment of 450 more, is that Britain should remain

:39:24.:39:27.

within the European Community, they should have the balls to say

:39:28.:39:30.

This is a matter of cowardice if they don't.

:39:31.:39:45.

The big change for Scotland from 2014 is it is a case

:39:46.:39:49.

that the country can't now be in both unions,

:39:50.:39:51.

It could simplify the politics, but end up making

:39:52.:39:56.

We've had hopes and fears in the programme today,

:39:57.:40:05.

Scotland, economics, the negotiation.

:40:06.:40:07.

Let's finish with some reflections on all that.

:40:08.:40:10.

I'm joined by the columnists Melanie Phillips, from the Times,

:40:11.:40:13.

and Jonathan Freedland from the Guardian.

:40:14.:40:18.

Melanie, you were pretty keen on Brexit, does it worry you that

:40:19.:40:26.

you're seeing potential disintegration of the UK? I would be

:40:27.:40:30.

extremely concerned about the potential disintegration of the

:40:31.:40:33.

United Kingdom. I think it is distinctly premature to worry all

:40:34.:40:36.

over again about Scotland. I think Nicola Sturgeon has been extremely

:40:37.:40:41.

wise to be cautious in her phrasing. A second referendum for independence

:40:42.:40:46.

is on the table, fine, let's have it on the table. There is no problem in

:40:47.:40:50.

that. But she is wise to be cautious for a number of reasons. First, as

:40:51.:40:55.

we can see, the EU itself is not necessarily keen to have Scotland as

:40:56.:41:00.

a member because this will open Pandora's Box again to other

:41:01.:41:05.

secessionist movements in Europe and they don't want that. Secondly, from

:41:06.:41:11.

the Scottish people's perspective themselves, nobody knows what this

:41:12.:41:14.

thing is going to look like to which they all want to continue to sign

:41:15.:41:18.

up. They don't know what Europe or the EU will look like, they don't

:41:19.:41:22.

know, we don't know what deal the EU will finally do with the United

:41:23.:41:27.

Kingdom. Can I ask, let's fly ahead ten years, if it was the case that

:41:28.:41:32.

Scotland didn't leave the UK, and everybody could see the date at

:41:33.:41:37.

which that destiny was set was devoted to Brexit, would you regret

:41:38.:41:42.

Brexit in that situation? No, I would regret very much of Scotland

:41:43.:41:45.

left the United Kingdom, they are an integral part of the United Kingdom.

:41:46.:41:55.

However, for me, national self-governance is overall. I know

:41:56.:41:59.

that you are a Remainer, Jonathan, where should the country draw the

:42:00.:42:03.

line on the balance between free movement, restricting that, and

:42:04.:42:06.

getting access to the single market? It seems to be the fundamental

:42:07.:42:10.

question we are facing. Just on the Scotland thing, if you or a patriot

:42:11.:42:15.

and are doing it for the country, a price worth paying is to break up

:42:16.:42:18.

the country seems like an odd thing to say. The balance of free

:42:19.:42:23.

movement, access to the single market seems crucial for the

:42:24.:42:27.

economy. Everybody says so. Even people on the Leave side said that.

:42:28.:42:31.

Boris Johnson's very unique brand of magical thinking, in which he

:42:32.:42:36.

famously said he is pro-cake and pro-eating it, even he was

:42:37.:42:40.

constantly saying through the campaign, of course we will be in

:42:41.:42:44.

the single market, plenty of other Leavers were as well. It is vital. I

:42:45.:42:49.

think we will be sending the economy to pen Yury if we break out of it.

:42:50.:42:54.

It's quite clear that the electorate have a problem with the free

:42:55.:42:58.

movement. Before the result, I was writing that Labour needed to change

:42:59.:43:01.

the message and say that it is something we need to look at. I

:43:02.:43:05.

think the European powers themselves, France and Germany, are

:43:06.:43:09.

also going to look at it. That might be where the action could be,

:43:10.:43:15.

actually. You would, presumably, Melanie, say that free movement is

:43:16.:43:18.

the red line and get whatever we can on single market access after that?

:43:19.:43:22.

For me, the red line is British national self-government. For that,

:43:23.:43:28.

we need to be able to determine our own immigration policy, for that we

:43:29.:43:31.

need not to have the free movement rules. That is how it works for me.

:43:32.:43:37.

I understand, obviously, there is a big problem here in respect of free

:43:38.:43:43.

movement of the one hand, against sovereignty on the other,

:43:44.:43:45.

potentially. We have already seen there is a slight frisson of a hint

:43:46.:43:51.

from the French that possibly, just possibly, it might be discussed.

:43:52.:43:59.

This is our story, and it is leading in the Daily Mail, Europe starts to

:44:00.:44:04.

crack on migrants? Yes, also, I'm not an economist, I yield to others

:44:05.:44:08.

that no much more about this than I do, but I'm listening to people that

:44:09.:44:12.

do know about the way economists worked who are saying that, you

:44:13.:44:16.

know, the free market is not the be all and end all. Sorry, the single

:44:17.:44:22.

market. You talk about, quite rightly, Boris Havering, but Michael

:44:23.:44:25.

Gove was very clear during the campaign, we come out of the EU, we

:44:26.:44:29.

come out of the single market. His view is that we can negotiate with

:44:30.:44:33.

the countries of the EU independently. Outside the single

:44:34.:44:38.

market? We heard Crispin Blunt saying... Our economy is so bound up

:44:39.:44:46.

with them, so intertwined. Our economy is unique. Nobody, but

:44:47.:44:50.

nobody knows how it will be for us because we have never been in this

:44:51.:44:54.

situation before. We are not Norway, we are not Switzerland. I want to

:44:55.:44:58.

keep moving this along. How, Jonathan, does the interaction of

:44:59.:45:03.

this with the Tory leadership contest work? We might think the

:45:04.:45:06.

leadership election is not the best way to frame a national decision

:45:07.:45:14.

about policy? It means somebody like Boris Johnson, who I think would be

:45:15.:45:19.

someone who wants to be flexible on this and negotiate something that

:45:20.:45:21.

would look a lot like Remain is having to go further and adopt a

:45:22.:45:31.

harder Leave position. Somebody like Theresa May, you would think she

:45:32.:45:34.

would be the more pragmatic, responsible figure. Partly, polling

:45:35.:45:39.

suggesting she is polling the Leave pulling ahead because she looks like

:45:40.:45:43.

a responsible adult, rather than ad-libbing it like Boris Johnson.

:45:44.:45:49.

Yet, if you want somebody who negotiates on something like LIBOR,

:45:50.:45:53.

it would be helpful to have somebody like Boris Johnson, who has been to

:45:54.:46:01.

China. It is the dilemma, we have had conversations about it. The

:46:02.:46:07.

Times, they say that in a poll, Tory activists say that Theresa May is at

:46:08.:46:10.

55%, Boris Johnson at 38%. There is a very clear mandate from

:46:11.:46:21.

the people. She could be Prime Minister and say, Boris, negotiate

:46:22.:46:27.

with the European Union? She could but you cannot have a Prime Minister

:46:28.:46:34.

who is a Remainer. This was about taking back control and the Prime

:46:35.:46:37.

Minister will be chosen by 150,000 people.

:46:38.:46:38.

A couple of big Tory beasts will declare themselves candidates

:46:39.:46:42.

for the leadership tomorrow, and maybe one in the Labour Party.

:46:43.:46:45.

Nick Watt will be live on Facebook live from the Boris launch,

:46:46.:47:08.

Wednesday's wet and windy weather leaving so was nice to

:47:09.:47:10.

In-depth investigation and analysis of the stories behind the day's headlines, with Evan Davis.

It is Brexit plus six. Jeremy Corbyn is feeling the heat. Members are angry. Tories are eyeing Number 10. The French are talking free movement. The Scots want to stay.


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