25/11/2016 Newsnight


25/11/2016

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They argued about the common market after the 1975 referendum.

:00:07.:00:08.

Are you suggesting that from now on, you and others who feel

:00:09.:00:11.

like you should continue a Parliamentary struggle to get

:00:12.:00:14.

And the arguments continue after the June vote as well.

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Experts and economics have continued to divide opinion

:00:24.:00:24.

A former Chancellor and one of his former advisors

:00:25.:00:32.

are on different sides of the debate.

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As the scandal over child sex abuse within football escalates,

:00:38.:00:39.

we ask whether football's governing body did enough to

:00:40.:00:42.

Also tonight, Erdogan overcame the coup in Turkey months ago.

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But his purge of public servants continues.

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We hear from one man caught up in it.

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So they accused you of being a Gulenist simply on the strength

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of finding one book by him in your university office?

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Yes, I mean, that's the only evidence they can talk of.

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And tomorrow is the 40th birthday of this...

:01:10.:01:12.

# We're so pretty, Oh, so pretty

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Has punk gone all establishment on us?

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One prediction made before June was that our Brexit referendum

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It's one of the predictions that has come true.

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Sir John Major and Tony Blair have both weighed into the debate,

:01:37.:01:39.

suggesting that there may sometime be a second referendum.

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Brexiteers, meanwhile, have rejoiced at good economic news

:01:44.:01:46.

that they say defies the doom-laden predictions of experts.

:01:47.:01:51.

Business investment grew in the months after the referendum.

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The experts had expected it to shrink as companies

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And on this Black Friday, it is right to point out that

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consumer spending has been holding up, too.

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At the end of this Autumn Statement week, is it game over?

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Time for re-moaners to get back in their box?

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List of the claims about Brexit, and there were many, concerned the

:02:22.:02:28.

long-term effects. -- most of it. Sorry to say we know nothing more

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about the long-term effects now than we did back then. But some of the

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claims did concern the short term. Remember these two? They made some

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predictions based on expert work at the Treasury. This is what happens

:02:41.:02:46.

if Britain leaves. The economy shrinks, the value of the powder

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falls, inflation rises, unemployment rises, real wages are hit, as are

:02:52.:02:55.

house prices, and as a result, government borrowing goes up...

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Let's hear those again. This is what happens if Britain leaves. The

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economy shrinks. This one really has failed to materialise so far. It

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does look like being a slowdown next year but far from a recession. This

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was the most important claim and I think we can declare it on course to

:03:16.:03:19.

be false. But there was another important claim. The value of

:03:20.:03:28.

sterling falls. It is currently down 11% but has been as low as 16. I

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think we can now declare that one true. Inflation rises... Thanks to

:03:33.:03:38.

the falling sterling, that does look likely... To- to now. House prices

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are hit... House prices have not shown any sign of falling. Is that

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where it ends? And as a result, government borrowing goes up. That

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one is kind of true relative to Budget predictions, but as yet,

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nothing to do with Brexit. Ignore this one and you have a draw. Oxford

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Street is buzzing on a Black Friday evening. And that is a Leave win.

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But it would be silly to deride the forecasters. They know better than

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anyone because what they do is have an intelligent stab at what we know

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about the future. They cannot give a precise and definitive guide as to

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what will happen. The good news we had on business investment today...

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Don't read too much into one quarter's data.

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Here's the graph of business investment growth over the last few

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years. In such an erratic series, would you read much into the little

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bar on the far right-hand side? For some, that figure, published today,

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is Brexit is working. You might as well stand on the

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seashore trying to work out whether the tide is coming or going.

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Excitedly commenting on each wave as it comes in! No, stop overthinking

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it, get a cup of tea. We will know in time.

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Let's talk now to the former Chancellor of

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And in Cardiff is the Economist Professor Patrick Minford.

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He was one of the so-called wise men advising Ken Clarke. Ken Clarke,

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what is your appraisal of the evidence? Do you concede at least

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some of the more you read fears have failed to materialise and we can

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relax on those? I didn't campaign on new rich short-term fears, and the

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truth is that the national media campaigning was pretty silly. Some

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of the daft things were said on both sides. The other side were

:05:55.:05:59.

concentrating on 77 million Turks coming here and that we tap -- we

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would have ?350 million a week for the health service if we left. But

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there is a serious debate. Your piece answered its own question. All

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this silly day by day commentary on one set of figures going up and

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down, another company investing or not, that is ridiculous. We haven't

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even left yet. The question of the referendum was, should we leave? It

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has hundreds of questions wrapped up in it and we won't really know the

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economic consequences of Brexit if we do go ahead until we know whether

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or not we are staying in the single market or the customs unit. This

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wasn't even discussed during the referendum. Professor Patrick

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Minford, have you taken heart or do you think it is of no interest at

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all, because we simply don't know? The evidence since we have the

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referendum result has been very clear. It is that the economy has

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been strong. That's the evidence we've got. Unemployment has fallen,

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employment has been strong. We have indeed had the fall in sterling,

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which was universally expected, including by our side, and that has

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stimulated the economy in a help you sort of way and be necessary because

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we had a big balance of payments deficit. -- a healthy way. So

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actually the economy has cruised along and has had a 2-3% growth. So

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we haven't had all these uncertainty effects they talked about... Sorry,

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quite a few economists said they would be a short-term shock. Gerard

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Lyons talked about this. There was quite a bit of talk of a short-term

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shock. So it wasn't just the Remain campaign who said that. So I don't

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know how you can talk about that when we haven't even made the exit

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yet. But the uncertainty that was not going to happen and it hasn't

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happened. If anything we should be positive, because the outlook is

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either through a clean Brexit, as it is called, where we go to free trade

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with the rest of the world, which will be a positive, or it is the

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status quo if you go with a soft Brexit. So the uncertainty effect

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was always nonsense and we said that. Whereas in the short run there

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would be a shock. I said it would be neutral and that's exactly what has

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happened. Ken Clarke, do you think Treasury officials' analysis is

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subject to what one might call political or cognitive bias that

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shape the analysis they deliver? Welcome with great respect to

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Patrick and the tiny number of economists who agreed with him

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during the referendum, and I have genuine respect for him, as a

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distinguished economist, but you will -- you must admit you are a bit

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of a maverick! We get on well. We still do. But the data from the

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OECD, the Bank of England, they weren't talking about headlines.

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They are talking about the lasting consequences. At the moment there

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are some short-term worrying things. A crash in sterling by over 15% at

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one point is not sort of good news. We've devalued by almost 40% since

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2006. We still have a terrible balance of trade. We have the worst

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current account deficit in our history. The economy is still

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buoyant but consumer debt is rising to very high levels. The background

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of uncertainty is putting off some investors. You've only got to talk

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to Japanese, Americans, others looking at this country, and

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everything depends on what the strategy of the government is going

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to be. And the key thing in the short term, we're only looking at

:09:56.:10:02.

the economics and trade bit, not our political role in the world, which

:10:03.:10:07.

was based in the EU in the past, but the key thing is, will we keep in

:10:08.:10:11.

the customs union and the single market? Because it help the economy

:10:12.:10:19.

to not have access. Your predictions and forecasts, and you do make those

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as an economist, Patrick, you are predicting the stock market will be

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from 6500 up to one -- 11,000 any year's time, which is an

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extraordinary assessment! I'm not looking to invest! Would you say

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your mindset shapes your forecast? Not at all. We did an analysis of

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the long-term trade effects of going to a free market. Everybody knows

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free trade with the world and a lot of countries, with agreements, and

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free trade setting no tariffs if we possibly can against the EU, that is

:10:57.:11:01.

good for the economy, so we did our basic analysis on the long-term

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prospects of free trade and less regulation. Our own regulation. And

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our control of unskilled immigration, which cost us a lot of

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money, because of the welfare costs from the EU. Let me just say this,

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Evan. You've got to listen! We did this analysis of these long-term

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things and we also did the analysis of the uncertainty effect, and we

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said all that stuff about the recession said by George Osborne was

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nonsense. There hasn't been a recession. You are right about the

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long-term. It hasn't yet happened. But things like the office the

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budget responsibility said investment will be hit but it is not

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being hit. And nor is consumer spending. We've got to move on but I

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definitely want to talk to you in a year's time. I will be delighted to

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do so! Can I not come back after the result? He's busted you out. Well,

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that is Patrick! Thank you both to you.

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Allegations of historical child sex abuse within football

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are now being investigated by four police forces.

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This comes after four former footballers gave emotional testimony

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on the Victoria Derbyshire Show this morning about their experience

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of being abused as children by ex-Crewe Alexandra coach Barry

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Let's hear a clip of two of them, Chris Unsworth and Andy Woodward.

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I don't know if I'm that strong, I don't know.

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Deep down I don't think I am but I'm now...

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I'm a funeral director, I see lots of horrible things,

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so that's probably made me a little bit stronger than

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I love Andy to bits and I'm here because of him.

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Andy, you've done a quite remarkable thing, you know?

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Last week I was on here, I was on my own, and I was

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so scared, but I knew that they were here.

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And tonight The Guardian is reporting that Crewe Alexandra

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directors were warned about similar allegations against Mr Bennell

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but allowed him to remain at the club for a number of years,

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despite the club's chairman at the time calling

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Let's talk now to Mark Palios, Chief Executive of the Football

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He himself was a professional footballer for Crewe Alexandra

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in the early '80s, before Barry Bennell's

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A very good evening to you. So you weren't there when Bennell was

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there. Did you ever hear intimations, gossip about him? Did

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the grapevine ever send any signal that way to you? No. There was

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absolutely no indication that this was a problem or an issue. Right

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through my entire career. And I've spent 17 years with professional

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football clubs. I never came across this as an issue. But as I said, in

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previous interviews, I think one has two except that... I don't think

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there was a cover-up but it is a very match a culture in professional

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football. As a consequence, I think it was difficult for people to

:14:18.:14:21.

surface issues, just as it has been done in the past week or so. So the

:14:22.:14:26.

victims of this he felt they may be didn't want to say anything for all

:14:27.:14:30.

the reasons we've known in the past. Victims have stayed quiet. Hamilton

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Smith, the director in the late 80s, he has spoken to The Guardian and he

:14:38.:14:41.

had alerted the directors. He knew reports of things that had going on

:14:42.:14:45.

-- been going on and he sat them down and said, what are we going to

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do about this? And that would imply... Well, what else would you

:14:50.:14:53.

call it other than a cover-up if no action was taken but certainly the

:14:54.:14:59.

man wasn't dismissed and police weren't called. What would you call

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that? I can't speak for the directors and how they addressed it

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at the time but it is interesting. We are looking at something that

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happened about 30 years ago. And if you were looking at society today, I

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think there's a different attitude and a different view and culture.

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Outside of football I think it's easier to sort of surface things

:15:22.:15:25.

like this. And what it does, it points you in a direction of looking

:15:26.:15:31.

at, what do you do with this? And the conclusion that people may well

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come to as a consequence of this is that a time whereby it becomes an

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offence if you don't raise the issue, if you don't whistle blow

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once you have serious concerns raising an individual. There is a

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duty to report it so at least it can be investigated. Because to be quite

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honest, one child being abused in this society is one child to many,

:15:53.:15:57.

and maybe that is something society wants to say, not just in football

:15:58.:16:00.

but across all sports and all organisations. When you went to the

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FA, how much of a preoccupation and issue was this? How or where were

:16:08.:16:09.

you of this being an issue? It wasn't, it wasn't massively on

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the agenda of issues which were brought to my attention at the time.

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The commission as I understand that was ongoing in the background, a

:16:23.:16:26.

combination of both the FA, I think the Premier League and the PFA were

:16:27.:16:31.

looking at child abuse and as a consequence of that commission later

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on I think they put in place a system of comprehensive proposals

:16:37.:16:40.

and regulations around how academies ran, for example. But it wasn't a

:16:41.:16:45.

massive issue for me on a day-to-day basis. Hamilton Smith, again, the

:16:46.:16:50.

Crewe Alexandra director, said in 2001 he went to the FA, the child

:16:51.:16:55.

protection officer there and said he was worried about how much Barry

:16:56.:17:00.

Bennell had been up to and thought there should be some investigation

:17:01.:17:03.

and he was really given the brush off. He was told after a lapse of

:17:04.:17:07.

time, he was told we have investigated this and there is

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nothing to see. That does imply that the FA was at least complacent

:17:14.:17:17.

doesn't it? I think society was complacent at the time. I am not

:17:18.:17:21.

justifying, I don't know the issue, I don't know the incident but I

:17:22.:17:24.

would suggest you have to look at it in the context of what was going on

:17:25.:17:28.

in this country at the time and maybe there was a complacency that

:17:29.:17:33.

wasn't warranted but that is what the situation was. I think

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subsequent to that, one has to look at what has happened since and the

:17:38.:17:40.

standards and regulations around how you deal with children have

:17:41.:17:50.

significantly been tightened. For example, if an individual is

:17:51.:17:53.

injured, a child is injured, you would not take him in a car on your

:17:54.:17:57.

own as a coach back to the copper treatment, they would be at least

:17:58.:18:01.

two you would take him in a group, if it was not serious you would take

:18:02.:18:06.

them in a group back to the whole issue of putting yourself at risk,

:18:07.:18:10.

of putting yourself in risk of an allegation being falsely made

:18:11.:18:17.

against you has been address. That is something which has been

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tightened since the 1990s, the 1980s et. Mark Palios, thank you for

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talking to us. Thanks. Relations between Turkey

:18:25.:18:26.

and the EU were fraught before Turkish President Erdogan today

:18:27.:18:29.

threatened to re-allow migrants to cross over into Greece

:18:30.:18:37.

and western Europe, knowing the trouble that would cause;

:18:38.:18:39.

that was after the European Parliament voted to recommend that

:18:40.:18:41.

talks on EU membership But the international position

:18:42.:18:43.

is nothing as to what is happening Since the coup, 125,000

:18:44.:18:47.

public employees have It is a very different

:18:48.:18:52.

kind of country. Tim Whewell has been to the country

:18:53.:18:54.

to see what the effects are. For one violent, chaotic night

:18:55.:19:04.

this summer Turks defied tanks Now though the hunt

:19:05.:19:06.

for the conspirators has cost more The government says

:19:07.:19:27.

it is cleansing Turkey of a virus. But is it also creating

:19:28.:19:43.

a state of fear? They are trying to

:19:44.:19:46.

eradicate all opposition. What is the real purpose

:19:47.:19:58.

of Turkeys cleansing and has Fethullah Gulen is a 75-year-old

:19:59.:20:01.

Islamic preacher living in self-imposed exile

:20:02.:20:07.

in the United States. He says his aim is simply to promote

:20:08.:20:16.

moderate Islam and education. But the graduates of his many

:20:17.:20:20.

schools formed a powerful But President Erdogan,

:20:21.:20:22.

a former ally of the preacher, claims Gulen actually

:20:23.:20:31.

masterminded the conspiracy. Now the Ministry of Education

:20:32.:20:40.

in Ankara, where many Gulenists worked, is leading the state's

:20:41.:20:42.

efforts to cleanse Turkey Now those alleged infiltrators

:20:43.:20:45.

are being purged. 50,000 were sacked in just one

:20:46.:21:31.

decree published online. On the list are teachers

:21:32.:21:40.

and academics like this history It is profession after profession

:21:41.:21:43.

basically, so many areas of The list just goes

:21:44.:21:51.

on and on and on and on. Associate Professor,

:21:52.:22:05.

Department of history. Now he is an ex-associate professor

:22:06.:22:21.

and his life has fallen apart. Under investigation for links

:22:22.:22:26.

to Gulen he cannot travel abroad, access his own bank account or get

:22:27.:22:31.

any other academic job. A few days before a friend of mine

:22:32.:22:34.

had seen that book in my office and told me, remove this book,

:22:35.:22:45.

nowadays it's dangerous. I told him, that is ridiculous,

:22:46.:22:50.

I am an academic. To make it even more ridiculous,

:22:51.:22:54.

he says, he was using quotations from the book

:22:55.:22:57.

to tweet against Gulen. You can just search my name

:22:58.:23:01.

and Fethullah Gulen on Twitter and you can see,

:23:02.:23:05.

they are from two years ago. He thinks Gulen is a

:23:06.:23:09.

dangerous extremist. I have underlined his words,

:23:10.:23:14.

apostasy in Islam is So they accused you of being

:23:15.:23:16.

a Gulenist simply on the strength of finding one book

:23:17.:23:25.

by him in your I mean, that's the only

:23:26.:23:27.

evidence they can talk of. Isn't there a real atmosphere

:23:28.:23:35.

of fear now in the country? People looking over their shoulder

:23:36.:23:40.

all the time, saying am I about to be denounced

:23:41.:23:44.

simply in order to settle Teachers or others who say they have

:23:45.:23:46.

been wrongly accused can now apply to special

:23:47.:24:17.

government complaint centres. But the state does not expect that

:24:18.:24:20.

many people will be reinstated. Certainly not the 28,000 state

:24:21.:24:24.

school teachers who were purged There is no such evidence

:24:25.:24:26.

against the history lecturer, but he does not think he'll

:24:27.:25:08.

get his job back any time soon. Nowadays everyone is afraid of one

:25:09.:25:12.

day becoming a Gulenist, You don't need evidence and those

:25:13.:25:15.

processes may take years. And you can watch the Our World

:25:16.:25:21.

documentary "Cleansing Turkey" tomorrow and Sunday

:25:22.:25:30.

on the News Channel at 9.30pm Tomorrow's the 40th

:25:31.:25:33.

anniversary of the Sex Pistols You can all hum the words I'm sure;

:25:34.:25:40.

"Don't know what I want, But I know how to get it,

:25:41.:25:46.

I want to destroy the passerby" - surely as relevant as ever

:25:47.:25:49.

to the UK experience. But since then, punk

:25:50.:25:52.

has lost its edge - The son of pioneers Malcolm McLaren

:25:53.:25:54.

and Vivienne Westwood, hitherto best known for his underwear shops,

:25:55.:26:01.

is burning his memorabilia tomorrow, in protest

:26:02.:26:05.

at the de-punking of the form. A lot has been said about the elite

:26:06.:26:09.

this year, but it is funny to think the punks are now the insiders

:26:10.:26:13.

and true rebels this year look more Our own post punk cultural

:26:14.:26:16.

commentator is Stephen Smith. This is how Jeremy Vine and the new

:26:17.:26:35.

look Crimewatch covered it. Over the last 12 months punk rock has become

:26:36.:26:40.

almost a battle cry in British society, for many people it's a

:26:41.:26:45.

bigger threat to our way of life than Russian communism or

:26:46.:26:47.

hyperinflation and it certainly develops more excitement than either

:26:48.:26:54.

of those. From Pastor John Cooper for instance who sees punk as

:26:55.:26:57.

degenerate and evil and from city councillors in London, Glasgow,

:26:58.:27:00.

Birmingham. We beat on, boats against the

:27:01.:27:15.

current, born back ceaselessly into the past on a tide of the nostalgia

:27:16.:27:20.

and spittle. # We are so pretty

:27:21.:27:24.

# Also pretty # We are a vacant

:27:25.:27:29.

# We are so pretty # We are so pretty

:27:30.:27:35.

# Vacant and Warwick. Malcolm McLaren was the spend alley of punk

:27:36.:27:47.

and Vivienne Westwood. But there son says he is setting fire to

:27:48.:27:50.

memorabilia worse millions because Punt is dead and worse has sold out.

:27:51.:27:56.

What would his dad think? With regards to lobbyist takeover of punk

:27:57.:28:02.

rock by the corporate sector and the whole idea that the establishment

:28:03.:28:08.

now owns this as part of the scene that we are going to start calling

:28:09.:28:14.

London, I think had he been alive he would have taken this opportunity to

:28:15.:28:20.

say something about it. Whether he would have agreed with me to burn a

:28:21.:28:23.

lot of it or not, I think he probably would have done. And I

:28:24.:28:28.

think you would think it was kind of hilarious. Do I buy country life but

:28:29.:28:40.

because it's British? Perhaps he has a point. Johnny Rotten did

:28:41.:28:44.

commercials. Was it hits bar? I can't believe it's not that spot.

:28:45.:28:51.

# We don't want it. But an up-and-coming band who consider

:28:52.:28:58.

themselves latter-day punks say Jon Corre has got his knickers in a

:28:59.:29:05.

twist. Stand-by for a punky three chord graphic. What he is doing has

:29:06.:29:10.

been done in a more profound way by the EPLF who burned ?1 million. He

:29:11.:29:15.

is just this sort of privileged man who has come to own all these

:29:16.:29:19.

possessions because of who his parents are. I don't think you

:29:20.:29:24.

should just burn our history. If it's in museums it's there to

:29:25.:29:28.

inspire and influence other people rather than just be, you don't

:29:29.:29:30.

achieve anything by burning it. But destroying artefacts has a

:29:31.:29:46.

certain pedigree. Artist Michael Landy put all his possessions to

:29:47.:29:54.

mangle. So is Jon Corre's act in that situation? Punk always embraces

:29:55.:29:59.

in some way commercials and stunts which is seen as destroying a

:30:00.:30:04.

spectacular or maybe a hoax, we will see. But it's not the spirit of punk

:30:05.:30:09.

because punk is very creative and was a gateway for a whole load of

:30:10.:30:14.

people in the mid-70s to get involved in music, fashion,

:30:15.:30:16.

journalism or any other kind of outlet of energy.

:30:17.:30:25.

Like his old man, this former owner of a lingerie chain is a bit of a

:30:26.:30:32.

provocative. And some believe his bonfire of punk will yet turn out to

:30:33.:30:36.

be no more than a tease. A storm in a teacup.

:30:37.:30:41.

That's all we have time for. I will be back on Monday. Have a good

:30:42.:30:45.

weekend. Good night. A lot of dry weather through this

:30:46.:30:59.

weekend, that the easy bit, a lot of variety also in the weather across

:31:00.:31:03.

various parts of the country, thick

:31:04.:31:04.

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