31/01/2017 Newsnight


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31/01/2017

With Emily Maitlis. Did a row between David Cameron and the Daily Mail editor shape the Brexit vote? Plus the latest on the Trump presidency and Yanis Varoufakis.


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that goes right to the heart of the Brexit campaign.

:00:00.:00:07.

Did a feud between the then Prime Minister

:00:08.:00:09.

and the editor of the Daily Mail help to shape how the nation voted?

:00:10.:00:14.

Newsnight understands Paul Dacre believes

:00:15.:00:16.

David Cameron was trying to have him removed.

:00:17.:00:22.

What does a feud between the country's most powerful figures

:00:23.:00:24.

tell you about how the battle was lost and won?

:00:25.:00:27.

is that this was a very important engine of the result.

:00:28.:00:31.

And Dacre versus Cameron - Dacre won. Absolutely.

:00:32.:00:34.

We'll hear from the Sun's former political editor, Trevor Kavanagh.

:00:35.:00:39.

Also tonight, the Home Secretary says Donald Trump's

:00:40.:00:42.

immigration travel ban could become a propaganda tool for Isis.

:00:43.:00:46.

This came out of thin air, as a kind of a stage play,

:00:47.:00:53.

for some of the folks in the White House who seem to want drama.

:00:54.:00:57.

We speak live to the deputy assistant

:00:58.:00:59.

to the President of the United States.

:01:00.:01:03.

And Viewsnight - tonight Greece's former Finance Minister,

:01:04.:01:06.

We need to establish a universal basic income

:01:07.:01:12.

to be funded from the returns of capital, not tax.

:01:13.:01:15.

It's what I call universal basic dividend.

:01:16.:01:18.

This will allow us to spread the returns from automation

:01:19.:01:21.

Tonight, we bring you an extraordinary story

:01:22.:01:35.

that goes right to the heart of the Brexit campaign.

:01:36.:01:38.

It involves two of the country's most powerful men -

:01:39.:01:41.

the former Prime Minister David Cameron

:01:42.:01:43.

and the editor of the Daily Mail, Paul Dacre.

:01:44.:01:47.

Newsnight has learnt the Mail's editor believes

:01:48.:01:50.

Mr Cameron was trying to have him removed from his job,

:01:51.:01:52.

fearing he could not win the EU referendum

:01:53.:01:54.

whilst he was still at the helm of Britain's most popular newspaper.

:01:55.:01:57.

Lord Rothermere, who owns the newspaper group, was a Remainer.

:01:58.:02:03.

So did Prime Minister at the time seek the help of Lord Rothermere

:02:04.:02:06.

in removing what he felt would be the thorn in Cameron's side?

:02:07.:02:09.

The British people have spoken, and the answer is we're out.

:02:10.:02:24.

Cast your mind back to that heady summer of 2016,

:02:25.:02:33.

the Brexit campaign and the fallout from it,

:02:34.:02:37.

politics had never looked more brutal,

:02:38.:02:39.

watching some of the most powerful figures in the country

:02:40.:02:44.

knock the stuffing out of each other.

:02:45.:02:47.

Amidst the carnage, one particularly major casualty -

:02:48.:02:51.

just a year after his election, the Prime Minister had been felled.

:02:52.:02:55.

But for another of Britain's most powerful people,

:02:56.:02:57.

a man whose face you'll rarely see, Brexit marked the ultimate victory.

:02:58.:03:03.

but every day his message is received by millions.

:03:04.:03:08.

For 25 years, he's been the editor of the Daily Mail,

:03:09.:03:11.

In the run-up to the 2015 general election, his newspaper

:03:12.:03:18.

had savaged the Labour Party and championed Mr Cameron.

:03:19.:03:21.

But on Brexit, it had been Mr Cameron who'd been

:03:22.:03:24.

on the receiving end of a relentless Daily Mail assault.

:03:25.:03:28.

With the result in the balance, the Daily Mail had nailed

:03:29.:03:31.

its colours to the mast and won the sweetest of victories.

:03:32.:03:37.

Looking at the coverage at the time, you could be forgiven

:03:38.:03:39.

for wondering if it was about more than just Dacre's

:03:40.:03:42.

if it wasn't tinged by something rather personal.

:03:43.:03:47.

Well, now I can reveal an intriguing subplot to that whole Brexit

:03:48.:03:50.

campaign that might help explain the pretty brutal treatment

:03:51.:03:56.

of a Prime Minister he had so recently helped to get elected.

:03:57.:04:02.

I've learned that early in the campaign Paul Dacre

:04:03.:04:09.

heard something guaranteed to make any editor see red.

:04:10.:04:11.

He'd been told the Prime Minister was trying to get him sacked.

:04:12.:04:15.

This is the story of a very personal stand-off

:04:16.:04:17.

between two of the country's most powerful men.

:04:18.:04:19.

It's a story of how the pre-eminent figure

:04:20.:04:21.

in British journalism went to war with the Prime Minister and won.

:04:22.:04:25.

This is where it all began, almost exactly a year ago.

:04:26.:04:28.

David Cameron had a deal on Europe, one he hoped he could

:04:29.:04:31.

take to the country to persuade us to stay in the EU.

:04:32.:04:36.

and that is Paul Dacre, a man he needs to have on side.

:04:37.:04:42.

Dacre is invited to the private flat in Downing Street,

:04:43.:04:44.

From what I understand, the two chat amicably

:04:45.:04:49.

within the early-evening chaos of a family setting.

:04:50.:04:52.

The kids are still up, the TV's on, the two men share a glass of wine,

:04:53.:04:58.

and the Prime Minister asks his guest if he'll cut him some slack,

:04:59.:05:02.

just pull back a bit from some of the intense euroscepticism.

:05:03.:05:07.

The response from Mr Dacre is, I'm told, swift and uncompromising.

:05:08.:05:09.

He can't change his position on such a core principle,

:05:10.:05:13.

His readers, too, viscerally Eurosceptic -

:05:14.:05:19.

Then, I'm told, he points to the television,

:05:20.:05:25.

showing pictures of migrants arriving in southern Europe.

:05:26.:05:29.

"Those are the pictures that will decide the outcome

:05:30.:05:31.

of the referendum," the Prime Minister is told.

:05:32.:05:35.

Over the coming weeks, Dacre sticks to his line.

:05:36.:05:39.

But not everyone at the paper is pro-Brexit.

:05:40.:05:41.

Lord Rothermere, who owns the Daily Mail,

:05:42.:05:43.

It will be Rothermere who Cameron approaches next.

:05:44.:05:49.

In March, Dacre learns something that leaves him incandescent.

:05:50.:05:52.

He's told the Prime Minister approached Viscount Rothermere

:05:53.:05:55.

with a view to having Dacre removed from his job.

:05:56.:06:01.

Is it conceivable that David Cameron would have requested

:06:02.:06:05.

Paul Dacre be removed from his post by his proprietor?

:06:06.:06:10.

with what I know to be the case about the attitude at the very apex

:06:11.:06:16.

of the Cameron government about Dacre.

:06:17.:06:17.

A member of the Cameron government told me very recently

:06:18.:06:24.

that there could be no revival in centrism in this country

:06:25.:06:28.

as long as Paul Dacre was editor of the Mail.

:06:29.:06:33.

And that was presented to me as an absolute precondition

:06:34.:06:36.

of any advance of the centre-right or centre-left,

:06:37.:06:38.

You're operating here in a context where one individual, one editor,

:06:39.:06:45.

is regarded as being of supreme importance in their political

:06:46.:06:51.

universe, as if the Daily Mail is a kind of planet which exercises

:06:52.:06:54.

a huge gravitational pull over the whole of the print media.

:06:55.:07:00.

A spokesman from Lord Rothermere's office refused to confirm or deny

:07:01.:07:06.

Newsnight's story but added, over the years, Lord Rothermere

:07:07.:07:08.

has been lent on by more than one Prime Minister to remove

:07:09.:07:11.

but as he told Lord Justice Leveson on oath,

:07:12.:07:16.

he does not interfere with the editorial policies of his papers.

:07:17.:07:20.

The relationship between David Cameron and Paul Dacre

:07:21.:07:21.

Back in 2005, Tory hopefuls lined up to lead the party.

:07:22.:07:29.

Paul Dacre originally backed Ken Clarke, an arch Europhile.

:07:30.:07:33.

But as Cameron's popularity grew, he attracted the Mail's backing,

:07:34.:07:37.

even though, politically, the two men were often at odds.

:07:38.:07:42.

Of course, there's always a honeymoon when a leader

:07:43.:07:44.

comes in who has the makings of a potential Prime Minister.

:07:45.:07:50.

But Cameron in 2005 hit the ground running with

:07:51.:07:52.

his modernisation agenda, which was green, it was about recycling,

:07:53.:07:55.

it was about gay rights, it was about being nice to hoodies.

:07:56.:07:58.

It was almost as if he had drawn up a list

:07:59.:08:01.

And so, obviously, there was an ideological gap

:08:02.:08:07.

between the Mail and the Conservative Party at that point.

:08:08.:08:12.

And then there was Andy Coulson, a Murdoch old hand

:08:13.:08:15.

who David Cameron wanted to bring into the heart of his team.

:08:16.:08:19.

Dacre warned him not to - Cameron ignored him.

:08:20.:08:22.

Coulson would eventually be jailed for phone hacking.

:08:23.:08:25.

When Dacre found himself dragged in front of the Leveson Inquiry,

:08:26.:08:28.

he felt a palpable sense of grievance.

:08:29.:08:30.

Am I alone in detecting the rank smells of hypocrisy and revenge

:08:31.:08:35.

in the political classes' current moral indignation

:08:36.:08:45.

over a British press that dared to expose their greed and corruption?

:08:46.:08:48.

The same political class, incidentally,

:08:49.:08:51.

that, until a few weeks ago, had spent years

:08:52.:08:53.

indulging in sickening genuflection to the Murdoch press.

:08:54.:08:55.

I'm told Dacre refused to take Cameron's phone calls.

:08:56.:08:58.

there were plenty of reasons for Dacre to dislike Cameron.

:08:59.:09:02.

But would David Cameron, a sitting PM, who'd vowed to the papers

:09:03.:09:11.

to preserve their press freedom, really seek to oust an editor?

:09:12.:09:14.

I asked David Cameron if he'd tried to have Dacre removed.

:09:15.:09:17.

It is wrong to suggest that David Cameron believed

:09:18.:09:21.

he could determine who edits the Daily Mail.

:09:22.:09:23.

Remember, that is not actually the question we asked.

:09:24.:09:26.

It is a matter of public record that he made the case

:09:27.:09:31.

to argue that we give up our membership of the EU,

:09:32.:09:35.

particularly when they had not made the case before.

:09:36.:09:38.

This appears to refer to the Mail's former support

:09:39.:09:42.

His statement finishes by confirming those two meetings.

:09:43.:09:47.

He made this argument privately to the editor of the Daily Mail,

:09:48.:09:50.

Paul Dacre, and its proprietor, Lord Rothermere.

:09:51.:09:53.

From Paul Dacre's office, simply this.

:09:54.:09:56.

For 25 years, I have been given the freedom to edit the Mail

:09:57.:09:59.

on behalf of its readers without interference

:10:00.:10:01.

from Jonathan Rothermere or his father.

:10:02.:10:04.

It has been a great joy and privilege.

:10:05.:10:08.

June the 24th brings a new political dawn,

:10:09.:10:10.

Shortly afterwards, Dacre is told by Rothermere something he has known

:10:11.:10:17.

privately for months - that David Cameron wished him gone.

:10:18.:10:22.

But the big question remains - was the Mail's coverage,

:10:23.:10:25.

influenced by a very personal feud at its heart?

:10:26.:10:32.

What we can say unequivocally was that the most brash

:10:33.:10:35.

and noisy and confident newspaper in the country was stridently

:10:36.:10:38.

anti-EU, and increasingly bitter and hostile towards Cameron.

:10:39.:10:47.

So alleging causality is impossible,

:10:48.:10:49.

without access to the mind of every voter.

:10:50.:10:55.

is that this was a very important engine of the result.

:10:56.:11:05.

a newspaper editor who wielded too much power?

:11:06.:11:11.

Or an elected PM seeking to make his mark on the free press?

:11:12.:11:16.

Matthew Dodd and ending that report. Earlier I spoke to Trevor Kavanagh,

:11:17.:11:36.

the former political editor of the Sun, and I asked whether editors

:11:37.:11:40.

ever get removed by politicians. I've never heard of one in my

:11:41.:11:44.

lifetime being removed, and I think the idea that the person involved

:11:45.:11:50.

here, Paul Dacre, one of the biggest newspaper editors, one of the giants

:11:51.:11:54.

of Fleet Street, would be removed by a compliant proprietor is almost

:11:55.:12:01.

totally preposterous. Isn't it conceivable that a Prime Minister

:12:02.:12:05.

would want to be cut a bit of slack if he felt that he was facing the

:12:06.:12:08.

political fight of his life and wanted a fair playing field? It's

:12:09.:12:13.

easy to imagine David Cameron, in that period in March, just before

:12:14.:12:19.

the campaign got into its stride, wondering and worrying whether he

:12:20.:12:22.

was going to lose, and lose everything in the process, including

:12:23.:12:26.

his job, and therefore to panic, and start thinking what he could do to

:12:27.:12:30.

silence one of the biggest guns aimed in his direction. But the idea

:12:31.:12:34.

that you would ask Lord Rothermere to get rid of the man who has turned

:12:35.:12:39.

the Daily Mail into such a huge success is fantasy, and he would

:12:40.:12:43.

have been utterly deluded before he even began that conversation. What

:12:44.:12:48.

would tell us, then, about David Cameron at that time the political

:12:49.:12:53.

year? I think a man who saw everything beginning to disappear

:12:54.:12:58.

before his very eyes, he had just won the general election, against

:12:59.:13:01.

all the odds, or apparently against the odds, and here he was possibly

:13:02.:13:05.

about to lose the premiership because of its promise to hold a

:13:06.:13:09.

referendum. He must've been extremely alarmed, and to take a

:13:10.:13:14.

step like this would have been an act of sheer desperation. Isn't

:13:15.:13:18.

there an understanding perhaps that he saw Paul Dacre, a man who swore

:13:19.:13:25.

his priority was to Brexit, but thought, hang on, you supported Ken

:13:26.:13:30.

Clarke, a renowned Europhile, he is not being consistent on the stew at

:13:31.:13:35.

all? Well, supporting Ken Clarke is one thing, we at the Sun very nearly

:13:36.:13:40.

did the same thing when he was a candidate for the leadership of the

:13:41.:13:44.

Conservative Party, simply because of this sort of feisty personality.

:13:45.:13:51.

But in the end, we had the same advice is Paul Dacre, we could not

:13:52.:13:55.

get over the point that he was resolutely pro-European, so I don't

:13:56.:13:59.

think the two things are quite comparable. What does it reveal to

:14:00.:14:03.

you about the extent of Paul Dacre's power? He is a giant in Fleet

:14:04.:14:08.

Street, has been for many years, I cannot imagine anyone being stupid

:14:09.:14:12.

enough to think that a proprietor would simply dismissing, especially

:14:13.:14:15.

in the heat of battle over an issue as big as Brexit. And I think that

:14:16.:14:21.

he emerges stronger, in fact, from the result, because he was fervently

:14:22.:14:28.

in support, he campaigned vigorously for Brexit, Brexit was the outcome,

:14:29.:14:34.

and all his enemies or opponents are scattered before him on the

:14:35.:14:38.

battlefield. So who is there now to beat Paul Dacre?

:14:39.:14:45.

Is it conceivable that this falling out could have had an impact on the

:14:46.:14:52.

Daily Mail Brexit coverage or on the vote itself? It is true that Paul

:14:53.:14:57.

Dacre found out through other sources than Lord Rother mere

:14:58.:15:01.

himself that Cameron had asked for this, asked for him to be sacked.

:15:02.:15:06.

And no human being would be able to avoid the feeling that they were

:15:07.:15:11.

going to up the empty and double down on the campaign. I think the

:15:12.:15:15.

Daily Mail was vigorous and devoted an enormous amount of space to the

:15:16.:15:19.

campaign and the arguments. And I would be surprised if it did not

:15:20.:15:22.

have some effect on the outcome although I think a lot of other

:15:23.:15:26.

factors were involved and it might have been that the gap could have

:15:27.:15:31.

been even bigger. The Home Secretary, Amber Rudd,

:15:32.:15:33.

today issued a stark message about President Trump's immigration

:15:34.:15:36.

ban, warning that it could be used But a Reuters poll tonight

:15:37.:15:38.

shows that more 49% of Americans agree

:15:39.:15:44.

with it, whilst 41% This evening, in Washington,

:15:45.:15:47.

Democrats walked out of congressional hearings,

:15:48.:15:52.

in essence choosing to boycott the appointment of Steve Mnuchin

:15:53.:15:54.

as Treasury Secretary. Later this evening,

:15:55.:15:57.

we will hear Trump's choice for the Supreme Court -

:15:58.:16:03.

a decision which bears enormous cultural weight in America

:16:04.:16:05.

and is often bitterly divisive. Here's our diplomatic

:16:06.:16:07.

editor, Mark Urban. The Trump administration wants to

:16:08.:16:18.

move on from the entry ban story, not least because it believes that

:16:19.:16:22.

the president has done no more than implement a policy he campaigned on.

:16:23.:16:27.

He has an agenda that he articulated clearly to the American people. And

:16:28.:16:35.

it is his job to lay out that vision and the people he appoints and

:16:36.:16:39.

nominates and announces as staff members, their job is to fulfil

:16:40.:16:42.

that. But they do not like it they should not take the job. But it is

:16:43.:16:48.

the President's agenda we are fulfilling. But the row over the

:16:49.:16:52.

executive order, leaving people scattered across the world by very

:16:53.:16:58.

weight for further vetting, continues and lawsuits are expected.

:16:59.:17:03.

There may be challenges to this rule, clearly it was put together at

:17:04.:17:07.

the last minute without input from the people who enforce the law, the

:17:08.:17:11.

people who make them all, the people who are affected by the law.

:17:12.:17:13.

The executive order took shape last Friday.

:17:14.:17:15.

Key to the drafting was Steve Bannon, strategy

:17:16.:17:17.

director, and Stephen Miller, just 31, another staffer

:17:18.:17:19.

On Friday afternoon Trump signed the order at the Pentagon

:17:20.:17:26.

with the Vice President and Defence Secretary looking on.

:17:27.:17:30.

Sidelining key departments, the White House extended the ban

:17:31.:17:33.

to holders of valid visas and green card residents.

:17:34.:17:37.

Angry officials briefed journalists alleging a cavalier

:17:38.:17:39.

Stephen Miller saying we're not going to go to the other agencies or

:17:40.:17:55.

talk to the lawyers, we're going to do this all alone. You get a very

:17:56.:18:01.

young person in the White House on a power trip and you can just write

:18:02.:18:06.

executive orders and tell all your agencies to go to hell.

:18:07.:18:08.

Within an hour of the order being signed, detentions

:18:09.:18:10.

It didn't take long then for legal challenges to begin.

:18:11.:18:15.

By Sunday, some officials were rowing back on green card

:18:16.:18:18.

Influential senators were complaining about the implementation

:18:19.:18:26.

and reports appearing that border control officers were

:18:27.:18:28.

obstructing court orders to release some detainees.

:18:29.:18:38.

This executive order... Was mean-spirited and un-American. This

:18:39.:18:53.

came out of nowhere, there is no national emergency, no earthquake,

:18:54.:18:59.

no trees toppling, no bomb found in a waste can at Kennedy airport. This

:19:00.:19:05.

seems to have been in my common opinion as a former very tough

:19:06.:19:10.

prosecutor, this came from thin air as a kind of stage play for some

:19:11.:19:16.

folks in the White House who seem to want drama.

:19:17.:19:17.

By yesterday evening, acting Attorney General Sally Yates

:19:18.:19:19.

was instructing officials not to contest cases

:19:20.:19:21.

White House staffer Stephen Miller went on Fox News

:19:22.:19:29.

to defend her dismissal, but also to cast light

:19:30.:19:31.

on the broader concept behind Trump immigration policies.

:19:32.:19:40.

How do we keep this country falling into the same trap as happened to

:19:41.:19:51.

places like Germany and France. We have permit intergenerational

:19:52.:19:54.

problem of Islamic radicalism that becomes a routine feature of life in

:19:55.:19:56.

those countries. New normal. This afternoon the Homeland Security

:19:57.:19:58.

secretary gave a robust defence of administration policy

:19:59.:20:04.

but there were nods too towards the failure of coordination,

:20:05.:20:06.

a ragged and imperfect process that Trump's appointees as they get

:20:07.:20:09.

a grip of their departments, As you have more and more Cabinet

:20:10.:20:28.

officials and you start to seek deputy secretaries getting

:20:29.:20:31.

confirmed, there will likely be more bureaucratic pushback. The question

:20:32.:20:36.

is even if there is pushed back whether it actually matters. Again

:20:37.:20:39.

proximity is power in Washington and the factors Stephen Bannon and

:20:40.:20:45.

Stephen Miller have the closest proximity to President Trump. Until

:20:46.:20:49.

President Trump Caesar believes their advice is hurting him

:20:50.:20:52.

politically he will continue to listen to them.

:20:53.:20:55.

With the entry ban, as with many other Trump policies,

:20:56.:20:57.

The Supreme Court could provide the hearing of last resort.

:20:58.:21:01.

Later this evening the president is expected to announce his

:21:02.:21:03.

appointment of a right leaning candidate to a vacant

:21:04.:21:05.

Joining me from Washington now is Sebastian Gorka

:21:06.:21:15.

who is Deputy Assistant to the President

:21:16.:21:16.

Sebastian, the sacking of Sally Yates set the bar quite high, does

:21:17.:21:33.

the president intend to get rid of everyone who refuses to execute his

:21:34.:21:43.

ideas? That is the sort of argument I would not expect from the BBC. Let

:21:44.:21:48.

us not get carried away. Sean Spicer simply sent a message in his

:21:49.:21:52.

masterful press conference yesterday afternoon where he said we have a

:21:53.:21:57.

new president, if there are members of the bureaucracy who do not wish

:21:58.:22:03.

to execute the policies of the new president well come in a private

:22:04.:22:07.

company those individuals would have to resign or be fired. The issue is

:22:08.:22:12.

does someone who works as a federal employee wish to implement the

:22:13.:22:16.

policies of the new president. That simple. I'm sorry you find me

:22:17.:22:22.

extreme, some 900 people have signed notices or petition saying they

:22:23.:22:25.

disagree with these executive orders. Will you make moves to get

:22:26.:22:32.

rid of them all? That is not my call, not my job to do it. Should

:22:33.:22:38.

president Trump do that? Should a CEO get rid of people who do not

:22:39.:22:42.

want to work in his company and abide by his rules? If the BBC had

:22:43.:22:50.

employees that completely acted in ways flagrant to the request of the

:22:51.:22:53.

governor and his actual policies, what would happen to them? So the

:22:54.:22:59.

answer is yes, then. She assumed that she was in her job to uphold

:23:00.:23:03.

the law and that she could not uphold the law by carrying out his

:23:04.:23:12.

demands. I think she fell victim to the politicisation of national

:23:13.:23:15.

security. The fact is this order is based upon an Obama identification

:23:16.:23:22.

of seven nations of primary concern to the United States when it comes

:23:23.:23:27.

to immigration. So we are acting on analysis from the last

:23:28.:23:30.

administration. We simply wanted to make sure there was no further

:23:31.:23:38.

threat and 109 people were slightly delayed out of 325,000 entering

:23:39.:23:43.

America on Saturday. If that is too much for someone to execute that

:23:44.:23:46.

mission then they will play the consequence. And there was no

:23:47.:23:50.

national emergency and you had to roll back on key elements. Let me

:23:51.:23:55.

just bring in Katie, a Reuters poll tonight shows whatever you think the

:23:56.:23:59.

Liberals and the airports are saying that the majority of Americans agree

:24:00.:24:06.

with this band. That is kind of a shocking number and I just have to

:24:07.:24:10.

say also that the job of a civil servant in this country is not just

:24:11.:24:14.

to obey the whims of the Roman emperor, of the leader, you know it

:24:15.:24:20.

is to uphold the Constitution. And they have been strong and persuasive

:24:21.:24:24.

arguments advanced that show that this executive order is not

:24:25.:24:28.

constitutional and is very contrary to the American idea as it has been

:24:29.:24:35.

broadcast around the world. As I think many Americans are quite

:24:36.:24:42.

ashamed that I new president has so quickly... Not according to the

:24:43.:24:46.

folds of the Roman emperors were not elected and Donald Trump made very

:24:47.:24:49.

clear on the campaign trail that this is what he was going to do. It

:24:50.:24:55.

can come as no surprise. Yes, and I think that team has been very

:24:56.:25:00.

effective at creating a mandate out of a very tight race. And assuming

:25:01.:25:05.

that the electoral victory justifies any action that they can dream of

:25:06.:25:14.

doing. That was a campaign promise. You may make promises on a campaign

:25:15.:25:18.

which are chaos in reality. You had to pull back on... How is 109 people

:25:19.:25:28.

chaos? Green cards, military translations. Mild with delayed. So

:25:29.:25:31.

you're saying this has gone according to plan? Absolutely, I met

:25:32.:25:37.

with general Kelly, the new Secretary of Homeland Security, he

:25:38.:25:41.

told me that like clockwork, what the left wing media presented was

:25:42.:25:45.

absolutely and utterly fallacious. The idea that principles were not

:25:46.:25:51.

consulted, but agencies were not brought into the decision-making

:25:52.:25:56.

process. Does it matter to you if leaders in Europe and around the

:25:57.:25:59.

world think this is the efforts of a dictator gone mad? It matters to us

:26:00.:26:04.

that people are being mowed down in mass numbers in France, being

:26:05.:26:10.

massacred on the streets of Paris, Brussels, and we do not want that to

:26:11.:26:14.

happen here. That is what matters to us and anyone using that kind of

:26:15.:26:20.

language with a duly elected, democratically chosen head of

:26:21.:26:23.

government, should have their credentials examined very closely.

:26:24.:26:28.

Katie, this is part of it, whenever there are protests or placards,

:26:29.:26:34.

whenever the left together if you like, this plays into the hands of

:26:35.:26:40.

Trump because he knows the rest of the country is delighted. I think

:26:41.:26:43.

that is a good point, he is a wonderful showman and you can see in

:26:44.:26:49.

the way he is rolling out his announcement of his Supreme Court

:26:50.:26:53.

nomination later tonight, eight o'clock prime time, the rumour is

:26:54.:26:57.

that he has his finalists both appearing in the White House. It is

:26:58.:27:01.

going to be great entertainment I'm sure. Is there any Supreme Court

:27:02.:27:06.

choice the Democrats could accept? My sense is that Democrats are

:27:07.:27:11.

hoping that Congress, which distorted the make-up of the court

:27:12.:27:15.

by not even considering Barack Obama's nomination will wait until

:27:16.:27:26.

another vacancy opens up and then evaluate both Garland and whoever

:27:27.:27:30.

Trump chooses to nominate. We will find a probably tomorrow morning to

:27:31.:27:34.

the Supreme Court choice is but let me ask you, whilst governments

:27:35.:27:37.

around the world are trying to work out Donald Trump has a strategy that

:27:38.:27:42.

was the question of the state visit. If that gets pushed back, by one

:27:43.:27:48.

year, 18 months, is that still acceptable to president Trump? I'm

:27:49.:27:53.

not going to speak directly for the president, the fact is the blizzard

:27:54.:27:57.

of Theresa May that just happened a few days ago went superbly. As a

:27:58.:28:02.

result I expect everything to go along swimmingly. You know there is

:28:03.:28:04.

a petition of more than a million people who do not want him to come

:28:05.:28:08.

and see the Queen? Absolutely, I know that but I know there is also a

:28:09.:28:14.

duly elected government. A duly elected government, the British or

:28:15.:28:19.

American one? The British one, that is going to invite the duly elected

:28:20.:28:22.

chief executive of the United States. And if we keep government

:28:23.:28:28.

policies hostage to petitions that everyone would say I do not want to

:28:29.:28:33.

pay any taxes and there would be a petition for zero taxes. That is

:28:34.:28:39.

about how a representative democracy functions or a republic. This is

:28:40.:28:42.

what the left will come up against time and again within the Trump

:28:43.:28:47.

administration, this is a man who was voted in by a credible electoral

:28:48.:28:53.

system, a populist, who is enacting the things he said and was

:28:54.:28:56.

democratically elected to do. Where do you go from here? I think Trump

:28:57.:29:06.

speaks the language of as I said, showmanship and I think of people

:29:07.:29:10.

protest and he concedes there is a lot of opposition... Protests by

:29:11.:29:19.

walking out, people were called idiots today and you can see the

:29:20.:29:23.

point. I see the point and I am a bit at a loss, it is dismal, I think

:29:24.:29:28.

that the mood in a lot of places that are predominantly Democratic as

:29:29.:29:33.

opposed to Republican is discouraged and searching. But I am encouraged

:29:34.:29:39.

by the example of Elizabeth Warren, people in government, who are not

:29:40.:29:46.

running over to this and who seem to be marshalling their resources. We

:29:47.:29:51.

have run out of time, thank you both.

:29:52.:29:52.

This is where we give people a chance to opine.

:29:53.:29:56.

You wont agree with everything they say.

:29:57.:29:58.

As I speak, the House of Commons is still in session.

:29:59.:32:26.

MPs will be there until midnight tonight debating whether or not

:32:27.:32:29.

to trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty -

:32:30.:32:32.

which would start the clock on us leaving the European Union.

:32:33.:32:37.

Tomorrow, just as Newsnight comes on air, the MPs will vote.

:32:38.:32:43.

But tonight, we thought we would look

:32:44.:32:45.

There have been figures floated in the press that the UK might face

:32:46.:32:50.

a bill of around 60 billion euros to cover spending commitments we've

:32:51.:32:53.

already entered into and things like the pensions of EU staff.

:32:54.:32:55.

In just over a month's time, Theresa May hopes

:32:56.:33:08.

to trigger the start of the Brexit negotiations.

:33:09.:33:11.

The UK is focused on paving the way for a bright future

:33:12.:33:14.

based on new trading relations across the globe.

:33:15.:33:18.

they are putting the finishing touches to the list of demands

:33:19.:33:23.

that will concentrate on a much more immediate challenge.

:33:24.:33:27.

When the talks are under way here in Brussels,

:33:28.:33:30.

it will soon become apparent that they are a divorce negotiation.

:33:31.:33:33.

one of the first items on the table in any divorce is alimony.

:33:34.:33:42.

My impression of the British position is they enter a football

:33:43.:33:46.

club, they say what we really want to do is play cricket,

:33:47.:33:49.

because we already invested in our cricket equipment.

:33:50.:33:53.

And when we go, we would like to take away

:33:54.:33:55.

with an early focus on demands for a substantial exit fee.

:33:56.:34:04.

Though there are tentative signs of a mellowing.

:34:05.:34:09.

Newsnight understands that a figure of just over 34 billion euros

:34:10.:34:13.

somewhat lower than the 60 billion floated last year.

:34:14.:34:20.

The new amount has been reached by examining the UK's

:34:21.:34:23.

roughly 12% share of the EU's assets and liabilities,

:34:24.:34:26.

The UK's share of the EU's total budget shortfall

:34:27.:34:40.

works out at between 24 and 30 billion euros.

:34:41.:34:43.

And the UK's share of the EU's pensions bill of 50-60 billion

:34:44.:34:46.

euros is between 6-7.2 billion euros.

:34:47.:34:51.

The UK will be expected to pay at least a third of its commitments

:34:52.:34:55.

under the EU's current budget up to December 2020,

:34:56.:34:59.

21 months after the planned Brexit date.

:35:00.:35:04.

That works out at around 10 billion euros.

:35:05.:35:07.

There are also the EU's assets of 153 billion euros.

:35:08.:35:10.

The UK will say its 18 billion share

:35:11.:35:14.

should be deducted from the liabilities.

:35:15.:35:18.

Some in the EU say their figures already take account of this.

:35:19.:35:25.

Definitive figures are notoriously difficult to pin down.

:35:26.:35:30.

The new exit bill is slightly lower, because the EU acknowledges

:35:31.:35:33.

that the UK should not have to fund those parts of the budget

:35:34.:35:36.

up to 2020 where spending has not yet been committed.

:35:37.:35:43.

The overall figure that is being bandied around in Brussels

:35:44.:35:45.

That assumes that we're fully liable for the seven-year period,

:35:46.:35:49.

and we might be able to escape some of that.

:35:50.:35:57.

but it is not going to be a small bill.

:35:58.:36:02.

I would have difficulty getting it down to any lower than 40.

:36:03.:36:06.

Newsnight understands that the exit bill and the rights of EU citizens

:36:07.:36:09.

in the UK will be the first items tabled by Brussels.

:36:10.:36:13.

One EU source told me not a single member state

:36:14.:36:16.

is going to pay one cent to help the UK leave.

:36:17.:36:23.

A leading MEP from Germany is hoping for a benign settlement.

:36:24.:36:27.

Either we keep everything in the EU like it is,

:36:28.:36:30.

that would mean somebody would have to cover the difference.

:36:31.:36:35.

And that would be on the net payers' side.

:36:36.:36:37.

The net payers are not very keen on the idea.

:36:38.:36:40.

My home country Germany, being the biggest net payer, not at all.

:36:41.:36:43.

The other possibility is that the UK is obliged to pay.

:36:44.:36:49.

Whether it will be the full money or with some other sort,

:36:50.:36:52.

It will be very difficult to find a way of filling this gap -

:36:53.:37:04.

10 billion is quite a lot of money from an EU budget of 130 billion.

:37:05.:37:08.

And that is why we go to this solution of increasing revenues,

:37:09.:37:11.

On the other hand if we decide to cut spending, of course the big

:37:12.:37:19.

losers are the net recipients, the countries that are benefiting

:37:20.:37:21.

So it's going to be difficult because it is already like this,

:37:22.:37:26.

there's a big gap between net contributors and net beneficiaries.

:37:27.:37:30.

But it is going to be exacerbated by Brexit, of course.

:37:31.:37:35.

The UK is hoping that old friends in the EU will ride to its rescue.

:37:36.:37:40.

Yann Squier suggests that Germany wants to be constructive,

:37:41.:37:43.

What we want to achieve is a fair deal and fair means the obligations

:37:44.:37:53.

And what will not happen is that the European institution

:37:54.:37:59.

and the European government will let the UK go away

:38:00.:38:02.

Pay nothing and forgetting about all the obligations

:38:03.:38:09.

they have on the continent. No way.

:38:10.:38:18.

Britain will soon be on the route out of the EU.

:38:19.:38:21.

We can expect some hard stares across the negotiating table

:38:22.:38:23.

but money could still make or break the talks.

:38:24.:38:43.

Our report shows there is something of a mixed blessing for David Davis

:38:44.:38:49.

on that sum of money. On the one hand, the 60 billion euros figure

:38:50.:38:53.

seems to be coming down, but 34 billion euros is the figure doing

:38:54.:38:57.

the rounds now, a colossal sum of money. But before David Davis can

:38:58.:39:02.

get to the talks, he has to get the Parliamentary bill triggering the

:39:03.:39:05.

negotiations onto the statute book, and tomorrow there are three votes.

:39:06.:39:11.

There will be a vote on the SNP amendment, which would stop the bill

:39:12.:39:17.

in its tracks. It will fail. The second one is about the second

:39:18.:39:19.

reading, that will go through, we expect about 29 Labour rebels. The

:39:20.:39:24.

third and final vote will be on the programme motion, how much time

:39:25.:39:28.

should the bill have? It looks like a higher number of Labour MPs voting

:39:29.:39:32.

against the Government on that. Next week it is consider that committee

:39:33.:39:36.

stage, on the floor of the House of Commons, and if, as seems likely,

:39:37.:39:41.

amendments are not passed, you will see the Shadow Business Secretary

:39:42.:39:44.

resigning from the Shadow Cabinet to let them vote against the bill. This

:39:45.:39:51.

is all in the House of Commons, but the real battle will be in the

:39:52.:39:54.

Lords. Government whips in the Lords are not relaxed, but they are

:39:55.:39:59.

confident that pro EU peers will not seek to block the bill, and there

:40:00.:40:03.

are two restraining influences. They know that if they are seen to thwart

:40:04.:40:07.

the will of the people from that referendum, it is not going to end

:40:08.:40:11.

well for them. In the second place, any peers who have not appreciated

:40:12.:40:15.

that point are being told by the Government, if you block the bill,

:40:16.:40:20.

we will hold an election with two key pledges - take the UK out of the

:40:21.:40:25.

EU and abolish you! I thought it would end like that!

:40:26.:40:27.

Before we go, time for our fact of the day.

:40:28.:40:30.

As Peter Capaldi announces he's standing down as the 12th

:40:31.:40:32.

Doctor Who, in fact 14 actors have been credited on screen

:40:33.:40:34.

as the Doctor, including the late John Hurt.

:40:35.:40:36.

But we mustn't count Peter Cushing, because he played a completely

:40:37.:40:39.

different character calling himself Doctor Who.

:40:40.:40:41.

Anyway here they all are, you decide if it's right.

:40:42.:40:52.

It changes nothing, absolutely nothing!

:40:53.:42:01.

Hello there. Mild weather in the next

:42:02.:42:02.