15/06/2014 Sunday Politics East


15/06/2014

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Well, this is the closest I'll get to Rio.

:00:37.:00:43.

The advance of the Islamist army on Baghdad has been slowed.

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The Iraqi army claims the fightback has begun.

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But the country now faces a de facto partition.

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What should Britain, Europe, or the US be doing - if anything?

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It's been a big week in the Scottish referendum.

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But has the tone of the debate become too downright nasty?

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Both sides join us to go head to head.

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I will swap Ed Miliband for Tim Farren. What is the significance of

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that? And as World Cup sticker fever grips

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even Westminster, we'll be asking Here in the East,

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fears that the rights of mentally ill patients, entitled

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to care, are being breached. And a crunch vote for Nick Clegg

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as Lib Dems meet in Cambridge to In London, why the minority vote one

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recent elections Labour, but recent support amongst people is bigger

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than assumed. The Sunni Islamist army known

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as ISIS is now in control of huge swathes of northern

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and western Iraq, including Until the weekend they looked

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like advancing relentlessly on Baghdad but that offensive has

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now been slowed or even halted The Iraqi army

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and its Shia milita allies vow that Baghdad will not be taken and that

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a counter-attack will soon begin. Iraq's Shia Prime Minister Nouri

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al-Maliki has to do something to reverse the humiliation

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of recent days, which saw his US-trained and equipped Iraqi

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army, which outnumbered the Islamists 15 to 1 melt away or

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surrender when confronted by ISIS. The conflict has already created a

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humanitarian crisis, with hundreds The Kurds have used the conflict to

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consolidate their hold on their autonomous area in the north, parts

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of the west and the north are in the grip of ISIS control and the Shias

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are hunkering down in the east. All of which makes a three-way

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partition a real possibility with The US is moving another

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of its massive aircraft carrier battlefleets to the Gulf,

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though the White House shows no While Iran says it's ready to help

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its Shia allies and there are unconfoirmed reports

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that its revolutionary guard has Well, I'm joined now by Newsnight's

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diplomatic editor Mark Urban. Let's start with some basics. Who

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are ISIS and why are they controlling big chunks of Iraq? ISIS

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is an extremist militant jihad organisation and they have a pure

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Islamic concept based on 14th century history and jurisprudence.

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What they want to do is correct -- create this caliphate that do not

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recognise colonial boundaries so it involves Syria and Iraq, and they

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could go down to Lebanon and Palestine, that is all fair game as

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far as they are concerned. And they have this strict interpretation of

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Islam. The more interesting question is why have semi-Sunni Muslims,

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along with them, these are precisely the sort of people who in 2006,

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2007, tribal leaders in the west of the country rose up against. It was

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called the Awakening and the Americans in power did and

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bankrolled it. These people turned against them and admired them in

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large numbers, so why do they have so many Sunni Muslims on their

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side? We hear about people going back to Mosul. I think the answer is

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a perception back to Mosul. I think the answer

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that the current government is ruling in sectarian interests, Shia

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Muslim interest, and the Sunni Muslims want self-determination and

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this is their best bet. Muslims want self-determination and

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this is their Let me put up this map to find out where we are going. We

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can see Mosul in the north, they took that, and then they started,

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South, reports that the crit was involved -- to grit -- to grit. What

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is the situation on the ground now? We are in what you might call a

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consolidation or strategic pause as American called it in 2003. ISIS are

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trying to consolidate their power in Mosul, and now they have this major

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city and they are trying to show they can run the city and get the

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power going, etc. Their southernmost forces, that is a gorilla army, guys

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in pick-up trucks. They cannot deal with serious opposition. They would

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like to get the tanks and other things into action but that could

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take weeks for them to be able to do it. The government side is that they

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have counter-attacked, but it will take a little while before these

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newly raised militia and other task forces, call them what you will can

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effectively counter-attacked. But that is what will happen in the next

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week or two. We will see increasingly large and serious

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government counter-attacked trying to retake those places, and I fear a

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really difficult, bloody Syrian style street by street battle for

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some of these urban centres. I would like to have a look at this map

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because the Kurds, as I mentioned, they are consolidating their

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position in the autonomous region in the north. The Islamist are taking

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over huge chunks of the Sunni Muslim West. And of course the Shia Muslim

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are still dominant in control of Baghdad and in parts of the south

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and east. Back to me looks like the beginnings of the partition of Iraq.

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-- back to me. Well, it is, but we have to caveat it in a few ways

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Firstly, there are millions of people in Iraq, so-called sushi

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combined families, who do not fit easily into the pattern. Do we see

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millions of people becoming refugees under this scheme? There would be a

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lot of human tragedies if people really did try to enforce this type

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partition. Secondly, there are Sunni Muslim communities in the south of

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Baghdad, those places, once again, a lot of misery and fighting will

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occur if people try to enforce a de facto partition. There are still an

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awakening of forces. They are on the side of the government. We heard

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about one group in Samarra of Sunni Muslims fighting on the same side.

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It's a complex picture. They factor, it does look like a partition, and

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if it goes further in that direction it will. And partition will always

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be messy because people end up on the wrong side of the lies.

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Finally, the big thing on that map, Iran, a huge place, a huge border

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with Shia Muslim Iraq. Iran now becomes a key factor. It is becoming

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a proxy war for Iran. Yes, when I was in Baghdad a few months ago I

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did actually see Iranians revolutionary guards in uniform

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They were protecting a senior Iranians official, so some numbers

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have been never some time and they are also said to protect the

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political leaders and -- in his compound. They are there. We think

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more of them are trying to organise the defence of Baghdad to galvanise

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the Iraqi army, and they will not allow the Iraqi government to fall.

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Mark, thank you for marking archive this morning. -- marking our card.

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Tony Blair took Britain into the Iraq conflict in 2003.

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He's now, among other things, envoy to the Middle East representing

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That's the UN, the EU, the US and Russia.

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This morning he entered the debate about what should be

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My point is simple. If you left Saddam in place in 2003, when 2 11

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happened and you have the Arab revolutions going through Tunisia,

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Libya, Yemen, Bahrain and Egypt and Syria, you would still have had a

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major problem in Iraq. You can see what happens when you leave the

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dictator in place, as has happened with Bashar al-Assad. The problem

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doesn't go away. What I'm trying to say is, we can rerun the debates

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about 2003, and there are perfectly legitimate points on either side,

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but where we are in 2014, we have do understand that this is a regional

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problem, but a problem that will affect us.

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And I'm joined by the former Foreign Office minister Mark Malloch-Brown,

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Here in London are James Rubin, he was chief spokesman

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for the State Department under Bill Clinton, and Bayan Rahman,

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she represents the Kurdistan Regional government in the UK.

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Intervened in Iraq, it's a shambles, we don't intervene in Syria, it s a

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shambles. What lessons should we draw? That is a well framed

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question, because that is the problem. Tony Blair is half right.

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Iraq, like Syria, would probably have been a problem even without an

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intervention. But one wishes someone would tell him to stay quiet during

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moments like this, because it does drive a great surge of people in the

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other direction. The fact is, what has been missing in western politics

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towards the Middle East throughout both episodes, Syria and Iraq, is a

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drive to build an inclusive, democratic centre which is secular

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and nonsectarian. That has been missing amongst the threats of

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invasion Manon invasion, we have just constantly neglected the

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diplomatic nation-building dimensional this. I want to come

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onto what is happening on the ground. I want to begin with what

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the Western response by me, and by that we mean the United States,

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because of it doesn't do anything, nobody will do anything. All of the

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signals I see coming out of the White is that Barack Obama has no

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appetite for intervention -- out of the White House. I don't think he

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does have an appetite. He would be very unlikely to do anything very

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large. He might feel pressured to act because of the fact that this

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particular group, this Al-Qaeda inspired group, fits into the

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strategy he has pursued in Yemen and Afghanistan and Pakistan, to use

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drone strikes against individual terrorists. So it is possible that

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the threat of ISIS in the region and the West in general might inspire

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him to act, but the idea he will do enough, militarily, to transform

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Iraq from its current state of civil War into something along the lines

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that Mark was talking about, nation-building diplomacy, a big

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operation, I don't see President Obama sees his historic mission as

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having got the United States as out of it. Leave it to the Pacific,

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perhaps. What would the Kurds like the West to do? First of all, in

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Kurdistan we face a huge humanitarian crisis. We already have

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had bought a quarter of a million Syrian refugees and we were

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struggling to cope with that. And now we have at least double that

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number of refugees coming from Mosul. First and foremost, we are

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calling on the international community to help us with that. So

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we need humanitarian aid? Let's assume we do that in some way, maybe

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not enough, but what else if anything? I think it is an incumbent

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on the west and other powers to assist Iraq to get rid of ISIS. I

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think the Sunni Arab community, some of whom have joined ISIS and may be

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supported the uprising, have justified complaints against the

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federal government. But we need the terrorists out of Iraq. That is

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first and foremost. And what the West can do is not necessarily

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intervene with boots on the ground, but provide technical assistance,

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provide intelligence and help the Iraqi army and air force to be more

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targeted. Can you defend yourselves? In Kurdistan, we can in terms of the

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disciplined troops. In this situation, I hope they won't be

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abandoning their post, that is for sure. It is a national cause fires.

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But we are not armed in the way that the Iraqi army is -- cause for us.

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We are not armed in the way that ISIS seems to be now they have

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seized some of the American kit We are not asking for weapons, but we

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ask for assistance for all of Iraq to deal with the situation. Mark,

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this is not just an Iraqi problem. This is a regional conflict, and

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from the Levant on the shores of the Mediterranean, all the way through

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to the Gulf, the region is gripped with what is essentially a Sunni and

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Shia Muslim sectarian war. Yes, with the caveats that Mark bourbon made

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earlier, it's not quite that straightforward, but the basic

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divide is exactly that -- Mark Urban. People have been looking for

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this to begin in Lebanon or Jordan and have been taken by surprise

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although with hindsight I'm not sure why, that it has begun in Iraq

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instead. At its most extreme, it risks redrawing the 20th century

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boundaries of the region in a way which would be highly unstable

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because it would pit a Shia Muslim bloc against the Sunni Muslim bloc

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and would undo all of the sort of social and economic advance of the

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last century, so the stakes are suddenly very, very high indeed Are

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we seeing the redrawing? The lines were drawn secretly, not far from

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here, about a mile away, and may have survived through thick and

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thin. They now look pretty fragile. The map is being redrawn. I think it

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is true that there is a key factor partition going on -- des facto

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Woodrow Wilson probably gave a bit of a hand to the promotion of the

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idea of self-determination, and in a way, there is a self determination

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going on, particularly in the Kurdish region, and perhaps they may

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end up the big winners in all of this, because they have proceeded

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with a relatively moderate, reconcilable government. The key

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thing that the Kurdish region has done. They used to fight the two

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groups, and now they fight together. What the Sunni Muslims have not done

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is figure out how to let politics let the side things instead of guns.

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We need to look clearly and in Syria and Iraq, if there is a Sunni

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extremist with ISIS that carves out a place for itself, it will be the

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great irony of the modern era. President Bush said he wanted to go

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into Iraq to fight terrorism. There was no terrorist. There are now If

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in Iraq and Syria together thereat a thousand strong Al-Qaeda capability

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that threatens the region, the West, the world, we are all going to

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have to do something about it. The danger is that power will

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spread. This could grow in power. You would not want it on your

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southern border. Absolutely, we would not. The point we are all

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making indirectly is that things have changed in Iraq and will never

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be the same again. Whether Iraq completely disintegrates into three

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countries, or whether it stays together as one country, but a

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countries, or whether it stays together as one country, but loose

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federation, either way, Iraq has changed. It will not go back to what

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it was. I hope it will change for the better. I think we're at the

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make or break point for Iraq. Either the political readers -- the

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political leaders of a right wake up and smell the coffee and put aside

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their differences or there will be problems. This provides that

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opportunity, in a very nasty way. If we take it? Yes, and if not, I think

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this is the end of a rack as we know it. If anything resembling a

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caliphate emerges, that is very destabilising for the region itself.

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More so I would suggest than even the Taliban and Al-Qaeda in

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Afghanistan. At some stage, you have to assume that they will be coming

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for us. That is correct. This is extremely dangerous. The only way

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forward is for these political groups to talk to each other and

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find a compromise that allows the rates of cinemas and minorities in

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Iraq to be protected within or the rates of cinemas and minorities in

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Iraq to be protected with an autonomous federal-state. Any

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support for the government must be premised on that. There is no

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military solution for this which is in during -- there is no military

:18:47.:19:03.

solution for this. There must be serious political negotiation, not

:19:04.:19:08.

with ISIS, but with Sunni Muslim moderates, to form a more

:19:09.:19:12.

representative government. This is the last chance for Iraq. I think we

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are all saying that that is going to need to be some major western

:19:18.:19:20.

leadership to make some big decisions here for the future of the

:19:21.:19:26.

region. I am concerned that after Afghanistan and Iraq, my country is

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quite world-weary, quite world-weary. It does not seem to be

:19:31.:19:35.

giving leadership. Certainly we are not seeing that in Europe. I am

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deeply concerned that we are not going to take the leadership role

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that needs to be taken. These are big issues. When Britain and France

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carved up the Middle East, they were world powers, operating as global

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powers, and without that global leadership by somebody, this is just

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going to get worse and worse. I think we will leave it there, thank

:19:59.:20:00.

you very much. The danger is that power will

:20:01.:20:05.

spread. This could grow in power. It is just under 100 days until the

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referendum on Scottish independence. So, for once,

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it'll be a long hot-summer But the campaign isn't

:20:14.:20:15.

just getting heated. In places it's also

:20:16.:20:20.

down-right nasty. When Scotland's best-selling author

:20:21.:20:22.

announced she was giving the unionist cause a million pounds

:20:23.:20:24.

this week, she received Independence supporters online,

:20:25.:20:26.

so-called cybernats, called JK Rowling a traitor

:20:27.:20:34.

and much worse, using a variety of For its part, the Better Together

:20:35.:20:37.

campaign has been accused Even Gordon Brown seems to think so,

:20:38.:20:41.

and this week he criticised Conservative ministers

:20:42.:20:44.

for relying on "threats With the Edinburgh Festival

:20:45.:20:46.

approaching, reports suggest even comedians are now reluctant to

:20:47.:20:51.

engage in the subject because I'm joined by Blair Jenkins from

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Yes Scotland and Jackie Baillie They're both in our Glasgow studio,

:20:55.:21:00.

and they're going head to head. Blair Jenkins, let me come to you

:21:01.:21:20.

first. Why have you and the Better Together campaign and Alex Salmond

:21:21.:21:24.

not done more to slap down the cyber nationalists who are poisoning the

:21:25.:21:28.

debate? Good morning. I think both sides tried to stop the tiny number

:21:29.:21:34.

of people on both sides who are incapable of controlling

:21:35.:21:38.

themselves. We should not get this out of proportion. We are having a

:21:39.:21:43.

fantastic, decent and democratic debate. The people who probably

:21:44.:21:46.

total no more than 100 on both sides who post offensive material or not

:21:47.:21:50.

to be allowed to deflect from that fact. Of course there are nasty

:21:51.:21:55.

people on the Better Together side as well, but are you saying there

:21:56.:21:59.

are as many of those as the cyber nationalists? I have not done the

:22:00.:22:05.

Kent. Lots of people are certainly posting nasty in defensive things to

:22:06.:22:11.

people in the yes campaigners well. I imagine that people do what I do,

:22:12.:22:15.

and block them. You stop them from sending anything further. There is a

:22:16.:22:22.

democratic and in gauging progress going on throughout Scotland. It is

:22:23.:22:26.

characterised by good humour and good debate. We should not get out

:22:27.:22:29.

of proportion and the activities of the number of people. I want to get

:22:30.:22:36.

to Jackie Baillie. The debate is actually pretty good-humoured and

:22:37.:22:39.

you should be doing more about the nasties on your side as well? I

:22:40.:22:43.

think we have reached a new low this week. Despite many people engaging

:22:44.:22:48.

in the politics of the decision and the debate about that, whether we

:22:49.:22:54.

want to retain the best of both worlds are separate from the United

:22:55.:22:58.

Kingdom, what we have seen is the most abusive and vitriolic attack,

:22:59.:23:05.

particularly on women, JK Rowling and a Labour supporter who dared to

:23:06.:23:10.

support the no campaign. When you look at the number of people on

:23:11.:23:15.

social media, there are more from the yes campaign than the no site.

:23:16.:23:20.

We should all be condemning attacks, from whatever quarter they come

:23:21.:23:28.

This seemed to be connected to the office of the First Minister. What

:23:29.:23:32.

is the evidence for that? There was an e-mail from one of the... I

:23:33.:23:38.

understand about that, but it did not use vile words. It did not, but

:23:39.:23:47.

it repeated the same mistake as on the website. We should be clear that

:23:48.:23:51.

we need to condemn these attacks, but it is not just the water works,

:23:52.:23:56.

it is taking action. There was an IpsosMORI poll this week which was

:23:57.:24:01.

varying testing. It showed the population as a whole, farmer people

:24:02.:24:06.

think that Yes Scotland is running an effective campaign as against

:24:07.:24:11.

Better Together. It is a undecided voters think this by a majority of

:24:12.:24:19.

four 21. Some people are worried about of the campaign. JK Rowling,

:24:20.:24:23.

Scotland's most successful author of all time. She gives ?1 million to

:24:24.:24:29.

the Better Together campaign. She then faces some of the most

:24:30.:24:33.

incredible abuse. I know what it is like because I have had some myself.

:24:34.:24:41.

Traitor, Quisling. I cannot use some of the words, it is Sunday morning.

:24:42.:24:46.

Why does Scottish Nationalists culture have such a revolting

:24:47.:24:51.

fringe? JK Rowling is entitled to our views and it is unacceptable if

:24:52.:24:54.

people say offensive things about her or anyone else who voices and

:24:55.:24:59.

opinion in this debate. Who are obese people? When you look at the

:25:00.:25:03.

accounts of some of the people who were posting these things about JK

:25:04.:25:07.

Rowling, they were using the same sort of language about film stars

:25:08.:25:11.

and football stars. This was just part of their language on Twitter.

:25:12.:25:18.

How often has Alex Salmond condemned the cyber nationalists? Very often.

:25:19.:25:26.

Everyone in the campaign hands. By common consent, Yes Scotland is

:25:27.:25:29.

running a thoroughly positive campaign, much more positive than

:25:30.:25:35.

Better Together. Jackie Baillie it hardly helps matters when Alistair

:25:36.:25:40.

Darling, who runs your campaign compares Alex Salmond to Kim Jong Il

:25:41.:25:43.

and North Korea. That hardly elevates the debate? I think we need

:25:44.:25:49.

to elevate the debate. There are less than a hundred days to go. It

:25:50.:25:56.

is a massive decision. We need to elevate the debate beyond attacks. I

:25:57.:26:03.

think there is much more that Yes Scotland and the SNP can do. You

:26:04.:26:08.

have made that point. Why are you running a campaign based on fear?

:26:09.:26:14.

The codename of your campaign is even project fear. It is threats.

:26:15.:26:21.

You cannot have the pound, there will be no shipbuilding. You will be

:26:22.:26:26.

flooded by immigrants. Why are you so negative? I am not negative at

:26:27.:26:31.

all and neither is the campaign The campaign has asked questions and I

:26:32.:26:35.

think it is legitimate to ask questions of the people proposing

:26:36.:26:39.

such a fundamental change. People care about the economy, their jobs,

:26:40.:26:44.

their families. What would happen to them if they leave the rest of the

:26:45.:26:50.

United Kingdom. I think it is legitimate to ask questions. I

:26:51.:26:52.

refuse to be asked of scaremongering. People deserve

:26:53.:27:00.

answers. The yes campaign is equally guilty of some of the most

:27:01.:27:07.

outrageous scaremongering. Maybe you are both scaremongering. Blair

:27:08.:27:13.

Jenkins, the First Minister said of the cyber nationalists, that they

:27:14.:27:18.

are just Daft folk, as if they were mischievous little children. It is

:27:19.:27:23.

worse than that. When you look at what they say, they are twisted

:27:24.:27:29.

perhaps even evil minds. I would not disagree with his comments, but they

:27:30.:27:33.

are directed at just a small number of people. The story of this

:27:34.:27:38.

campaign is not the story of what people are saying on Twitter. Around

:27:39.:27:43.

Scotland, lots of people are getting engaged in debate to have been tuned

:27:44.:27:49.

out of the political process. Today, we have 47% support for the yes

:27:50.:27:54.

campaign. The movement in the campaign is towards yes. People know

:27:55.:27:58.

we have a better campaign, a vision for Scotland. The latest poll of

:27:59.:28:05.

polls does not show that. Both sides, you always take the opinion

:28:06.:28:09.

polls that show you in the best light. All politicians do that.

:28:10.:28:14.

Jackie Baillie, your campaign is not just negative, it is patronising.

:28:15.:28:20.

You make dubious claims that Scots would be ?1400 better off by staying

:28:21.:28:26.

in the union, and then you say that the kids use the money to scoff 280

:28:27.:28:33.

hotdogs at the Edinburgh Festival. The fate of the nation is in your

:28:34.:28:36.

hands and that is the best you can do? I think you will find that the

:28:37.:28:42.

campaign is something that we are taking the message to people. Then

:28:43.:28:48.

why are you talking about hotdogs? I do not. The campaign did. We are

:28:49.:28:56.

taking a positive message to people across Scotland about the benefits

:28:57.:29:00.

of the United Kingdom. We believe we are stronger and more secure and

:29:01.:29:04.

more stable, being part of that family of nations that is the United

:29:05.:29:08.

Kingdom. At the same time, we have the strange and power over things

:29:09.:29:13.

like education and transport. I understand that. I am not doing the

:29:14.:29:20.

issues today, I am talking about the tone of the campaign. I have one

:29:21.:29:24.

very important question. Who would you supporting last night in the

:29:25.:29:31.

England-Italy match? I was not watching the game. I would be

:29:32.:29:35.

delighted to see England do well in this tournament. I have Argentina in

:29:36.:29:39.

the office sweepstake. I have to keep some attention on them, but I

:29:40.:29:43.

would be delighted to seeing Clint do well. That is because you think

:29:44.:29:49.

it will help your campaign. It will annoy the Scots. Jackie Baillie I

:29:50.:29:55.

was supporting England. I was also supporting Portugal.

:29:56.:30:01.

Now most of you probably missed last night's football match

:30:02.:30:04.

between England and Italy because you wanted to get an early night and

:30:05.:30:07.

England lost despite a plucky effort, I'm told.

:30:08.:30:11.

But even Westminster is in the grip of World Cup fever

:30:12.:30:14.

and with speculation about the fitness of each political

:30:15.:30:16.

party's team we sent Adam out to tackle some of the big players.

:30:17.:30:23.

Well, this is the closest I'll get to Rio.

:30:24.:30:26.

This year everybody seems to have gone a bit mad Belize, football

:30:27.:30:39.

stickers. Let's see who I will get. Oh, the suspense -- a bit mad for

:30:40.:30:46.

these. George Osborne? That is because we leapt on the bandwagon

:30:47.:30:47.

and made Alan political stickers. They're hotter than a Brazilian

:30:48.:30:50.

barbecue. And at Westminster they're

:30:51.:30:52.

turning into collector?s items. Sunday politics political stickers.

:30:53.:31:01.

We have one of you, Norman. Would you like it? Do you want to start

:31:02.:31:06.

collecting, Bob? Would you like a packet?

:31:07.:31:06.

collecting, Bob? Would you like a Thank you. No album, I'm afraid

:31:07.:31:14.

collecting, Bob? Would you like a Thank you. No album, I've got

:31:15.:31:17.

Michael Gove, next to to Reza, and two of the Prime Minister. -- next

:31:18.:31:25.

to Theresa. I am sure Michael has Theresa in her stick around, and

:31:26.:31:26.

vice versa. These Tory ones are proving very

:31:27.:31:28.

popular since she fell out with him out how

:31:29.:31:30.

to handle extremism in schools. And there's been open speculation

:31:31.:31:33.

about him taking on him in Then there are rumours of a

:31:34.:31:36.

reshuffle of the whole Tory album. Do you think there will be any

:31:37.:31:47.

swapping in the Tory leadership soon? Who knows? David Cameron has

:31:48.:31:56.

also got to replace the EU commissioner, Cathy Ashton, who is

:31:57.:31:57.

standing down. Does he go with the favourite

:31:58.:31:59.

the former health secretary Or the grassroots choice,

:32:00.:32:01.

Martin Callanan, the Tories old Or does he rehabilitate

:32:02.:32:04.

Andrew Mitchell after Plebgate? Do you fancy being European

:32:05.:32:22.

Commissioner? I would rather be spending the money on the world s

:32:23.:32:25.

poor and spending it well. Glad to hear it. Happy collecting.

:32:26.:32:27.

Right, there must be some Labour stickers out there.

:32:28.:32:30.

You don't want to swap Ed Balls any of the others? Can't I keep them

:32:31.:32:38.

all? This is almost the perfect team.

:32:39.:32:39.

There have been grumblings about the fitness of the Shadow

:32:40.:32:42.

And Ed Miliband's got a kicking in Liverpool after posing

:32:43.:32:46.

I'm told grown men are meeting up in pubs for sticker swaps -

:32:47.:32:57.

With Danny Finkelstein - Tory peer and Times columnist,

:32:58.:33:02.

He would be the card I would not want to trade. Do people want to

:33:03.:33:14.

trade him in? I don't think anybody wants to trade him in at the moment.

:33:15.:33:18.

He is the best person to lead the Labour party and will lead us into

:33:19.:33:21.

the next election. There's been a lot about Michael Gove, and he's

:33:22.:33:25.

very combative. That's been a huge strength as an education Secretary,

:33:26.:33:27.

despite the fact it's brought in trouble. I would think the prime

:33:28.:33:32.

minister would tell him not to get himself into peripheral battles at

:33:33.:33:35.

the moment but stick to what has been successful. I haven't got Nick

:33:36.:33:41.

Clegg, but I got me. Controversy amongst collectors of Lib Dems. I

:33:42.:33:47.

need to give away me in return for Nick Clegg. That would be far

:33:48.:33:49.

better. There you are. Some local parties are holding

:33:50.:33:52.

meetings about his leadership, but at one in Cambridge this week

:33:53.:33:55.

they voted to stick with him. You have got a Euro Commissioner.

:33:56.:34:07.

Why don't I swap, I will swap Ed Miliband for Tim Farren. Can I do

:34:08.:34:11.

that? What is the significance of that? Very significant. Happy

:34:12.:34:14.

collecting. These beauties are popping up

:34:15.:34:17.

everywhere, but sadly they won't Adam is still doing the samba around

:34:18.:34:20.

Westminster as I speak. I'm joined

:34:21.:34:30.

by three journalists who've been furiously swapping stickers

:34:31.:34:32.

throughout the show, they certainly weren't allowed to stay up to watch

:34:33.:34:34.

the football, it's Nick Watt, We will talk about Labour after the

:34:35.:34:44.

break, and I want to concentrate on the Tories, but the moment, Nick,

:34:45.:34:47.

senior Tories are saying privately that they might win next May. They

:34:48.:34:56.

are beginning to dream the dream. So why are they doing all this

:34:57.:35:01.

jockeying? I think the jockeying for the leadership is about a year old.

:35:02.:35:07.

What stoped it up was when Theresa gave a speech to the conference and

:35:08.:35:13.

people said she was doing it just in case, when things were not looking

:35:14.:35:17.

too good. She is not on manoeuvres. I think it was a policy row that

:35:18.:35:21.

drove the differences with Michael Gove. But Michael Gove is on

:35:22.:35:25.

manoeuvres, and he is trying to protect George Osborne from, he

:35:26.:35:28.

believes, a serious threat from Boris Johnson and possibly Theresa.

:35:29.:35:35.

It is quite self-indulgent when you are a couple of points behind, the

:35:36.:35:38.

economy is going your way, to be involved in this sort of stuff.

:35:39.:35:48.

Extraordinary. It shows the toxic disease that gnaws at the entrails

:35:49.:35:54.

of the Tory party, and Cameron is their great asset. He is more

:35:55.:35:56.

popular than the party, he bridges the gap is, and he has an

:35:57.:36:01.

extraordinary dissemble and some pretending to be this moderate while

:36:02.:36:05.

never the lens -- nevertheless leading the most far right wing

:36:06.:36:08.

government we have had since the war, and that has been a brilliant

:36:09.:36:12.

piece of political Charente and they would be crazy to get rid of it --

:36:13.:36:14.

political Charente. piece of political Charente and they

:36:15.:36:17.

would be crazy to get rid of it -- charades. Does this rumble on? I

:36:18.:36:22.

have an unfashionable view as there aren't half as many leadership plots

:36:23.:36:27.

taking place in Westminster as we assume, and the willingness to read

:36:28.:36:30.

strategic calculation into anything that takes place comes from people

:36:31.:36:34.

watching I Claudius or house of cards. That hasn't been off -- on

:36:35.:36:40.

for years. I needed a reference from your time. I needed something. Maybe

:36:41.:36:47.

brief encounter? It's a stylised view of how politics works, and so

:36:48.:36:51.

much more in life is about randomness and mistakes. Boris

:36:52.:36:57.

Johnson, Theresa May, Michael Gove as George Osborne's man on earth,

:36:58.:37:03.

they are positioning themselves -- Janan wrote an eloquent comment this

:37:04.:37:06.

week about this, but there are certain realities that. Michael Gove

:37:07.:37:12.

had that famous dinner with Rupert Murdoch a few weeks ago in which he

:37:13.:37:16.

said that you must not make Boris Johnson leader of the Conservative

:37:17.:37:21.

party, George Osborne is my man Theresa May set out her credo two

:37:22.:37:24.

years ago and people on her team were saying that she was doing it

:37:25.:37:28.

just in case. People are out there and are thinking of the future, but

:37:29.:37:32.

I do think Janan is right. In the village, in the thick of it mindset,

:37:33.:37:36.

you can get a bit carried away and you can be a bit in the famous. That

:37:37.:37:46.

is before your era. He died. What did he mean by it. You can get a bit

:37:47.:37:52.

carried away by it. I will have words with you during the break

:37:53.:37:55.

It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

:37:56.:37:57.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now

:37:58.:38:00.

Coming up here in 20 minutes, we'll be talking about Ed Miliband's

:38:01.:38:09.

Hello and welcome to Sunday Politics East.

:38:10.:38:10.

Health workers' fears that patients receiving mental health card are

:38:11.:38:14.

at risk and their legal rights are being breached.

:38:15.:38:20.

When they do an assessment `nd there is no bed available anywherd in the

:38:21.:38:27.

country, that means that thdy are unable to legally fulfil thdir

:38:28.:38:28.

responsibilities. And troubled waters in Cambridge,

:38:29.:38:30.

where the Lib Dems put the leadership

:38:31.:38:33.

of their party to the vote. It was a fantastic debate. We had a

:38:34.:38:42.

huge number of members of the Liberal Democrats who could express

:38:43.:38:43.

their opinions. But first to our guests `

:38:44.:38:46.

Sir Bob Russell, the Lib Dem MP for Colchestdr, and

:38:47.:38:48.

Councillor George Nobbs, thd Labour But I wanted to start this week with

:38:49.:38:51.

the criticisms of Ofsted has raised concerns

:38:52.:38:56.

about the Olive Tree School, after books with fundamentalist

:38:57.:39:02.

views were found in the library The school was also criticised

:39:03.:39:06.

for not doing enough to prolote In terms of the religious ethos of

:39:07.:39:09.

the school, we completely rdject it. We believe it is an Islamophobic

:39:10.:39:16.

report based upon a right wing extremist, Michael

:39:17.:39:19.

Gove, whose ignorance of Islam is This came on the same day that six

:39:20.:39:23.

Birmingham schools were put in special measures for failing to

:39:24.:39:29.

protect pupils from Islamic extremism and there are fears that

:39:30.:39:32.

schools elsewhere have been targeted I can only speak on what I know

:39:33.:39:51.

which is very little about schools in Luton. All I can say is that if

:39:52.:39:56.

this is going on and off st`ge is saying it is, then it is not

:39:57.:40:00.

acceptable. It is not acceptable for any religious top when of any fees

:40:01.:40:05.

or the nomination to be taught to children. I have long held the view

:40:06.:40:09.

that we should follow the French example, where you do not h`ve

:40:10.:40:14.

religious schools but relighon is taught as part of the curriculum in

:40:15.:40:19.

state schools. My worry is that where you have a feast days still,

:40:20.:40:23.

which could be Christian, is that those youngsters do not mix in the

:40:24.:40:29.

real world and become institutionalised. `` faith `based

:40:30.:40:30.

skill. Do you think this raises important

:40:31.:40:32.

issues abut British Values? We have always had a tradithon of

:40:33.:40:44.

tolerance for people with other religious views, like you in

:40:45.:40:52.

Colchester. But to the nation is a two`way street. We are happx to

:40:53.:40:57.

tolerate people who have bedn persecuted for their religious

:40:58.:41:02.

beliefs but I do not think we can tolerate intolerance itself. To

:41:03.:41:06.

blame all stayed is very unfair I think. Ofsted said the school was

:41:07.:41:13.

inadequate. `` to blame Ofsted. It said that they were not exposed to

:41:14.:41:17.

other faiths and lifestyle. They also criticised but you cannot have

:41:18.:41:22.

it both ways. You cannot accept it when they see were good and rejected

:41:23.:41:24.

when they criticise it. Well,

:41:25.:41:28.

the rule of law might be a British Health professionals in Norfolk and

:41:29.:41:31.

Suffolk are claiming that m`nagers are failing in their legal duty

:41:32.:41:35.

of care to mental health patients They've been taking part

:41:36.:41:37.

in a public consultation th`t's overwhelmingly opposed proposals to

:41:38.:41:41.

cut mental health beds in W`veney When he is at home,

:41:42.:41:44.

you feel like you have to cope. It is your husband, the person

:41:45.:41:49.

you love most in the world. But seeing him going bit by bit

:41:50.:41:52.

knowing how he was Dementia has taken away her husband,

:41:53.:41:55.

David, the man that Police found him on a railw`y line,

:41:56.:42:03.

which could have had That is when something had to be

:42:04.:42:09.

done. Her one consolation is that David

:42:10.:42:14.

is now safe and secure nearby. It is here at Carlton Court

:42:15.:42:18.

in Lowestoft where he receives Last year, two 12 bed wards were

:42:19.:42:21.

closed here along with a daycare centre

:42:22.:42:28.

and the loss of more than 30 jobs. Three 12 bed wards

:42:29.:42:32.

for continuing care remain open The question is ` for how mtch

:42:33.:42:36.

longer? It is all part of

:42:37.:42:40.

the reorganisation of mental health services in Norfolk and Suffolk

:42:41.:42:42.

where the trust is trying to save A public consultation involving more

:42:43.:42:46.

than 1000 people has reportdd claims that patient safety is being placed

:42:47.:42:53.

at risk In the consultation,

:42:54.:42:56.

they said exceptionally cle`rly that when they do an assessment

:42:57.:43:14.

and there is no bed available anywhere in the country that means

:43:15.:43:17.

that they are unable to leg`lly fulfil their responsibilitids under

:43:18.:43:21.

the Mental Health Act. In the last couple of weeks,

:43:22.:43:24.

we have had people admitted to Yorkshire and down

:43:25.:43:27.

as far as Brighton. It is not just a bed issue,

:43:28.:43:31.

our community services have been A meeting on

:43:32.:43:35.

the public consultation will be held later this month and the final

:43:36.:43:39.

decision is due in September. It is like having

:43:40.:43:43.

a dagger hanging over your head You're trying to put it out of

:43:44.:43:47.

your mind until you hear a decision but how can you not

:43:48.:43:50.

think about it? Norman Lamb, the CCGs and

:43:51.:43:52.

the board of the mental health trust all have a part to play, all seem to

:43:53.:43:58.

say it's somebody else's problem. What would your message be to

:43:59.:44:03.

Norman Lamb about the situation He has been reported

:44:04.:44:06.

in saying that it is intolerable Instead of complaining

:44:07.:44:14.

and passing the buck, he has to say Why are they saying that yot

:44:15.:44:21.

have got to save ?20 million? People with mental illness or

:44:22.:44:27.

a disease cannot stand up It has got to be up to

:44:28.:44:30.

us to fight for them. Well, earlier this week our

:44:31.:44:40.

correspondent Alan Soady met with Norman Lamb and he asked

:44:41.:44:42.

the Minister why the closurd of wards has coincided with a reduction

:44:43.:44:45.

in support in the community I have seen it myself

:44:46.:44:48.

as a local member of Parlialent I have taken up issues with

:44:49.:44:54.

the mental health trust and have to say that I have criticisms

:44:55.:44:57.

of the mental health trust `bout the way in which they have sought

:44:58.:45:01.

to achieve their reorganisation It was highly unfortunate,

:45:02.:45:04.

I put it no more than that, that the chief executive who

:45:05.:45:08.

launched the transformation of their services chose himself to

:45:09.:45:13.

leave halfway through the process. Do you acknowledge that somd

:45:14.:45:18.

patients are having to travdl much bigger distances

:45:19.:45:21.

and that is not good for Yes and I find it

:45:22.:45:25.

completely intolerable. If I was a family member solebody

:45:26.:45:30.

sent off 200 miles away I would I have made it clear

:45:31.:45:35.

from my position that this practice It is not necessarily always the

:45:36.:45:42.

case that you need an inpathent bed. There are any progressives

:45:43.:45:48.

in mental health care looking much more at alternatives

:45:49.:45:52.

like recovery houses. Third sector organisations providing

:45:53.:45:55.

brilliant resources, to avohd inpatient admission and help someone

:45:56.:45:59.

go through a mental health crisis. Or providing support for people

:46:00.:46:04.

at home. The response to this consultation

:46:05.:46:07.

will come next month. Can you give any assurances that

:46:08.:46:10.

there will be no further cuts Again,

:46:11.:46:18.

coming back to the issue of beds, we have seen a significant reduction

:46:19.:46:23.

in more than a decade in thd number Does that mean there

:46:24.:46:27.

could be more cuts? It is getting the care right

:46:28.:46:31.

for individuals. Across the country

:46:32.:46:37.

we see variable lengths The progressives in mental health

:46:38.:46:43.

believe that the average length of stay needs to come down

:46:44.:46:50.

significantly, getting more people Much better early interventhon,

:46:51.:46:52.

for instance, in psychosis, is something that everybody is

:46:53.:46:58.

calling for across the systdm. Should you not be getting

:46:59.:47:02.

the community part of it in place That is what the mental health

:47:03.:47:06.

trust should be doing. They should be working

:47:07.:47:15.

collaboratively with That is why it is really good that

:47:16.:47:17.

the commissioner in Yarmouth has been proactive in trying to

:47:18.:47:21.

understand community needs `nd working with the mental health trust

:47:22.:47:25.

to ensure those needs are mdt. I don't have total power as minister

:47:26.:47:29.

to achieve what I want to sde. But I will constantly, in the time I

:47:30.:47:34.

have available, advocate That you will do all that you can

:47:35.:47:38.

but the action will not necdssarily I am trying to be honest about the

:47:39.:47:49.

things that I can do and cannot do. I have intervened directly to get

:47:50.:47:57.

extra money for mental health. I will do everything I can within

:47:58.:48:03.

my power. But in a very

:48:04.:48:09.

decentralised system, which has this government came to powdr,

:48:10.:48:12.

the decisions about allocathons Had the Norfolk and

:48:13.:48:16.

Suffolk Foundation Trust run their proposals for change past the county

:48:17.:48:31.

council's health scrutiny committee before making the redundanches

:48:32.:48:33.

and sanctioning the bed closures? I do not think so. The decision is

:48:34.:48:47.

not going to be taken and of September. But the beds that have

:48:48.:48:52.

already been removed. There have been no cuts in great Yarmotth, I

:48:53.:48:56.

cannot answer for Suffolk. Listening to Norman Lamb is like listdning to

:48:57.:49:02.

what is pilot. Wringing his hands and saying, " is this not awful " He

:49:03.:49:08.

is the Health Minister! Wikh rig from him all the time that he wishes

:49:09.:49:11.

he could do something about it. If he feels that strongly then I

:49:12.:49:18.

suggest he does something or resign. To keep saying it is terrible but

:49:19.:49:23.

somebody of's fault. I think that is frankly. It is true. It is not. The

:49:24.:49:31.

situation is that there is not enough money going into mental

:49:32.:49:33.

health across the country. Hn the case we have here, if anybody can

:49:34.:49:40.

get underneath and kicked b`ckside I have confidence that Norman Lamb is

:49:41.:49:45.

the man to do it. As he said, in the delegate authority down to local

:49:46.:49:50.

organisations and health trtsts you must rely on them to do it. What

:49:51.:49:56.

this shows is that these huge medical advances in cancers, illness

:49:57.:50:03.

and everything else, people are now surviving illnesses which would have

:50:04.:50:07.

killed an elder generation. The unintended consequences are that

:50:08.:50:11.

they are getting dementia l`ter in life. Let's talk about the

:50:12.:50:13.

practicalities of that. People are being sent far away. They

:50:14.:50:32.

have had to face 20% cuts ilposed by the Health Service, not by `nybody

:50:33.:50:34.

locally but by the Government of self. 23% of people who present

:50:35.:50:44.

themselves at the Health Service are there with mental health problems.

:50:45.:50:48.

Something else needs to be done Norman knows there are cuts. What

:50:49.:50:52.

money is being spent on the NHS under the Coalition governmdnt. . It

:50:53.:50:57.

is more than the last Government. I expect there is an argument about

:50:58.:51:03.

how you cut the cake but thd gig is better. Is it right to send people

:51:04.:51:10.

hundreds of miles away? Of course it is not. Of course it is not. I think

:51:11.:51:14.

that comes down to local management. I thought we had got away, but

:51:15.:51:20.

clearly not, but we need to get away of the mentality of one trust

:51:21.:51:25.

looking itself and the unintended consequences is that if thex do not

:51:26.:51:30.

have the beds for psychiatrhc people but it could tie up police officers.

:51:31.:51:35.

Mental health is labour`intdnsive. You can find new operations for

:51:36.:51:38.

injuries but mental health pages 121. It is very personal. Thank you.

:51:39.:51:46.

Now from a crisis in health care to a crunch vote

:51:47.:51:48.

Three weeks after yet anothdr set of disastrous election results

:51:49.:51:52.

in this region, party members in Cambridge have been

:51:53.:51:54.

openly discussing whether their best hope would be a change of ldader.

:51:55.:51:57.

A special meeting was held on Friday night,

:51:58.:51:58.

where members debated whethdr or not to call for a leadership eldction.

:51:59.:52:01.

After what was described as a lively three hour meethng they

:52:02.:52:04.

voted, by the relatively narrow margin of 45`32,

:52:05.:52:08.

We have a huge number of people members of the Liberal Democrats,

:52:09.:52:17.

It is quite rare in politics these days for people to

:52:18.:52:21.

You do not see it at Labour and Conservative party confdrences.

:52:22.:52:26.

I am proud that my party is able to have that discussion.

:52:27.:52:35.

I am joined by our political correspondent, Andrew Sincl`ir.

:52:36.:52:37.

So is this now the end of the matter and what does it tell us about the

:52:38.:52:42.

The vote was much closer th`n people were expecting and it's a shgn

:52:43.:52:46.

Remember these are the grassroots, the people who loyally give

:52:47.:52:50.

their time and money for a cause which they belidve

:52:51.:52:53.

Here in the east they polled less than

:52:54.:52:59.

The driving force behind thhs vote in Cambridge was that unauthorised

:53:00.:53:03.

Labour were ahead of the Lib Dems by 14%.

:53:04.:53:13.

If Vince Cable were leader, his poll claimed that lead would be

:53:14.:53:18.

And that's why some thought it was time for Nick Clegg to go.

:53:19.:53:27.

He can be an extremely eloqtent advocate but unfortunately he is so

:53:28.:53:35.

unpopular with some people that he actually damages those causds when

:53:36.:53:39.

he is advocating them. That is why I signed the letter. I do not think

:53:40.:53:43.

you can be a party leader when such a big chunk of the electorate are

:53:44.:53:50.

willing to give you a fair hearing. You could also argue that as the

:53:51.:53:51.

queues outside Cambridge. And that's not just the casd

:53:52.:53:56.

in Cambridge. The Lib Dems always used to call

:53:57.:53:58.

themselves the official 11 years ago they ran all these

:53:59.:54:00.

authorities, big rural ones like North Norfolk

:54:01.:54:04.

and East Cambs, important urban ones Now they only run Colchester,

:54:05.:54:06.

Bedford and Brentwood but they don't have a clear majority

:54:07.:54:09.

and overall control. They are also part of a rainbow

:54:10.:54:12.

alliance running Southend. Four years ago they had nearly 00

:54:13.:54:15.

councillors on borough, district But since 2010 they have lost 1 3

:54:16.:54:19.

councillors and are now And it's got so bad for the party

:54:20.:54:25.

that in this year's local elections they didn't field a single candidate

:54:26.:54:31.

in Great Yarmouth or Castle Point. That's very embarrassing

:54:32.:54:34.

for a major political party. So will anywhere else call for

:54:35.:54:37.

Nick Clegg to go? I think the moment has passdd

:54:38.:54:40.

but there is a lot of concern In Norfolk,

:54:41.:54:44.

where two county councillors signed that letter calling for Nick Clegg

:54:45.:54:46.

to stand down, I was told bx one senior member that about a third of

:54:47.:54:49.

the party would like Clegg to go, another third would agree if it

:54:50.:54:53.

wasn't so close to an electhon. I've also heard rumblings of discontent

:54:54.:54:56.

in Bedfordshire and Hertfordshire. The party leadership

:54:57.:54:58.

in the region insists that this is just a minority and most melbers are

:54:59.:55:00.

still behind Nick Clegg. `` there is no great wish to change

:55:01.:55:10.

the leader within the party. Why not? Because it is not just Nick

:55:11.:55:15.

Clegg. It is about the mess`ge that we all have the great across the

:55:16.:55:21.

people. `` have to get across. It is about campaigning on the ground and

:55:22.:55:25.

media to show that we are ddlivering success in government. It is not

:55:26.:55:36.

easy to deliver success overnight. They believe they can still bounce

:55:37.:55:38.

back. That vote was much too tight

:55:39.:55:39.

for comfort. I will leave Cambridge to do what

:55:40.:55:49.

they want to do. We are a ddmocratic party. I will go from this studio

:55:50.:55:53.

back to Colchester for a celebration party. The Lib Dems have defended 26

:55:54.:55:59.

seats, held 25 in the past six years. All I can say is that the

:56:00.:56:06.

results where Apache. You are in the room with me but that is about you

:56:07.:56:09.

than the leadership and the Lib Dems, is not? That is nice of you to

:56:10.:56:15.

see. The Lib Dems are strong in parts of the region and as hndicated

:56:16.:56:19.

they are there are other ardas where we have no representation. We are

:56:20.:56:28.

feeling it. When I was formdd by the National media, which are driving

:56:29.:56:32.

this, and I'm disappointed hn the BBC for having polymers. It is not

:56:33.:56:36.

the media, it is the lack of thoughts. There are elements in the

:56:37.:56:41.

right wing Tory press who do not like the Coalition. They wanted to

:56:42.:56:45.

have a right wing Tory government. And I will tell you a littld secret,

:56:46.:56:49.

David Cameron prefer is working with the Liberal Democrats than being at

:56:50.:56:57.

the beck and call of the right`wing head`bangers. I get on very well

:56:58.:57:04.

with the Liberal Democrat local County Council because going

:57:05.:57:07.

coalition with Labour there. That is what you should be doing nationally,

:57:08.:57:14.

follow their example! But the thing is, they talked about whethdr Vince

:57:15.:57:18.

Cable would be better than Nick Clegg. I think you would be. Have

:57:19.:57:22.

you thought about it? Pleasd don't start that campaign! Stephen

:57:23.:57:26.

Robinson mentioned a football analogy. He said that it might be a

:57:27.:57:33.

team's fault but old medley in manager has the fall on his sword.

:57:34.:57:39.

We are less than a year awax from a general election and when the media

:57:40.:57:45.

phoned me I said that Ed Miliband Struan Stevenson they said, we mean

:57:46.:57:48.

Nick Clegg! I said that he had been democratically elected by the

:57:49.:57:54.

membership and so we support him. I support the reader and Cambridge

:57:55.:57:57.

members are quite entitled to have a meeting and the majority of them

:57:58.:58:02.

voted... Are you not at all dismayed at the plight of the party `t the

:58:03.:58:06.

moment? When you look at thd election results be about? H am not

:58:07.:58:11.

enthusiastic but what I am enthusiastic about is how Lhberal

:58:12.:58:13.

Democrats, the first time in 80 years, they have been in government

:58:14.:58:19.

of this country and we have delivered in college and sole of our

:58:20.:58:23.

policies that I recognise what is being said here. It is a led

:58:24.:58:27.

government. But in a coalithon, we have got some of our policids

:58:28.:58:34.

through. Your party has been for 130 years split between two factions.

:58:35.:58:39.

The liberals who believe in... And progressives. We will have. Which

:58:40.:58:45.

one are you on? I am backing my party leader and a success story in

:58:46.:58:49.

Colchester! We will discuss it a different day.

:58:50.:58:50.

Now, the World Cup is well and truly underway in Brazil and

:58:51.:58:53.

there's plenty of team spirht in our political round up this week.

:58:54.:58:53.

Here it comes, in 60 seconds, with Chris Bond.

:58:54.:59:06.

As firefighters staged the latest Day of action in their disptte over

:59:07.:59:12.

pensions, the Communities Sdcretary was confident the union would soon

:59:13.:59:13.

be on site. A deal has was confident the union would soon

:59:14.:59:16.

be on site. A deal has been tantalisingly close for months.

:59:17.:59:21.

Essex County Council are also in an upbeat mood. This time over

:59:22.:59:26.

potholes, which they say will definitely be fixed before the Tour

:59:27.:59:30.

de France since the county next month.

:59:31.:59:33.

Futuristic vehicles were on the mind of the Business Secretary, Vince

:59:34.:59:38.

Cable. In Milton Keynes this week to open the UK's first transport

:59:39.:59:41.

innovation centre. The future looks rosy for this

:59:42.:59:47.

little person, born at Basildon Hospital which is out of spdcial

:59:48.:59:49.

measures. And will junior football te`ms be

:59:50.:59:53.

banned from heading the ball in future? MPs are called for lore

:59:54.:59:59.

pitch side expertise on the issue of concussion. Sport is about taking no

:00:00.:00:04.

and making sure that people taking training understand how to deal with

:00:05.:00:06.

those issues. `` taking hits. Is that good advice for polhticians,

:00:07.:00:09.

too, get used to the school But my party is in good spirits We

:00:10.:00:12.

are doing very well! If headers were banned,

:00:13.:00:20.

Ballotelli wouldn't have scored the winner last night and m`ybe

:00:21.:00:22.

we'd have come away with a draw Yvelines I could have headed that

:00:23.:00:32.

one in. But to play ahead to be in the right place to score... We need

:00:33.:00:35.

to be very serious about thhs. Heading is part of the game but what

:00:36.:00:42.

is not being properly looked at at an amateur level and professional

:00:43.:00:45.

level, is concussion and he`d injuries. Do you think it ndeds

:00:46.:00:50.

looking at? In the past, whdn football is where heavier it was a

:00:51.:00:53.

problem. Some footballers h`ve suffered from brain damage `nd when

:00:54.:00:57.

dealing with children you h`ve to be extra careful. Thank you very much

:00:58.:00:59.

for joining us. There are big changes afoot

:01:00.:01:00.

in the EU following last month's European elections,

:01:01.:01:15.

not least who'll get the top job But

:01:16.:01:17.

behind the scenes the parties have also been jockeying for position as

:01:18.:01:21.

they try to form the big groups that And UKIP seems to have been

:01:22.:01:24.

struggling to keep its influence Here's Adam to explain

:01:25.:01:29.

how it all works. If you want your party to be a big

:01:30.:01:41.

cheese in the European Parliament, you need to form a political group.

:01:42.:01:45.

By doing this, the party gets more money, more positions on committees

:01:46.:01:49.

and even more speaking rights in the chamber. But the parliament's rules

:01:50.:01:56.

are strict. And to form a group you need a group of 25 MPs from at least

:01:57.:02:01.

seven different countries. For UKIP, the number of MEPs will not be a

:02:02.:02:04.

problem because they already have 24 of their own, but the different

:02:05.:02:09.

nationalities are more of a challenge. Nigel Farage was not

:02:10.:02:13.

helped by the Tories stealing - stealing his former Danish and

:02:14.:02:18.

Finnish allies, and the pen pinching his Italian charms. Nigel needs a

:02:19.:02:26.

new charm and fast. He has already signed up Lithuania's order and

:02:27.:02:29.

justice, a free citizen from Prague, and the Dutchman from the reformed

:02:30.:02:35.

political party. The big signing was the 17 members of the Italian Beppe

:02:36.:02:43.

Griego's 5-star movement, but it leaves UKIP short of two more

:02:44.:02:46.

international powers, and with the clock ticking, it looks like his

:02:47.:02:50.

hopes resting on the Swedish Democrats and the Polish new right

:02:51.:02:54.

Congress. They both make their decisions next week.

:02:55.:03:01.

What is the latest? UKIP have enough MEPs with their pals, but they need

:03:02.:03:06.

seven countries, as I understand it. They are not there yet. They are

:03:07.:03:11.

wrapped five countries and need another two. UKIP are being quite

:03:12.:03:15.

buoyant and say they will be meeting MEPs from five countries next week

:03:16.:03:20.

and are pretty confident they will get those countries, but as Adam was

:03:21.:03:24.

saying, the problem UKIP have had is that the Conservatives have nicked

:03:25.:03:33.

two of the parties. That is why they have been struggling, but they say

:03:34.:03:36.

they are confident they will do it. Meanwhile, the Tories new best

:03:37.:03:40.

friends are the German Eurosceptic party, which has put Mrs Merkel s

:03:41.:03:46.

nose out of joint, but we don't quite know whether she really cares

:03:47.:03:52.

or not. I think Cameron has played his hand badly since he committed to

:03:53.:03:58.

pulling out of the EBP. And he should be in there with Angela

:03:59.:04:05.

Merkel and if he needs to make a major renegotiation, he needs to

:04:06.:04:11.

have the Germans onside. Instead there is a breakaway party and its

:04:12.:04:16.

like supporting UKIP. His party are supporting her worst enemy. It

:04:17.:04:22.

certainly causing him a lot of problems, and undermines his

:04:23.:04:24.

negotiating position, but isn't there an honesty that the

:04:25.:04:31.

centre-right group is explicitly Federalist, and the Tories are

:04:32.:04:35.

anything but, so they came out, and Labour are in the Socialist group,

:04:36.:04:39.

which is explicitly Federalist, and they are not Federalist either. If

:04:40.:04:44.

you want support and influence in Europe, you have to trade, and he

:04:45.:04:48.

hasn't done this well. The whole business with who will be the next

:04:49.:04:55.

president, he needs Angela Merkel's support. Without that, it won't

:04:56.:04:59.

happen. He should have been trading behind-the-scenes, but he has

:05:00.:05:06.

exposed himself in public, and if he doesn't win it looks uncertain, and

:05:07.:05:09.

he will be in a position where he has to go back to his own party and

:05:10.:05:12.

say they are not getting anywhere. That is dangerous and takes us

:05:13.:05:16.

closer to the Exeter, which I don't think would want. The danger for Mr

:05:17.:05:23.

Cameron is if it is the president of the commission, he will save you

:05:24.:05:28.

cannot stop a federalist becoming head of the European commission

:05:29.:05:31.

what chance do you have of repatriating lots of powers back to

:05:32.:05:38.

London. There are lots of Tory MPs dying to make the argument. My hunch

:05:39.:05:42.

is that he won't make it. There are too many countries opposed to his

:05:43.:05:46.

presidency and even the country notionally in favour of it, Germany,

:05:47.:05:52.

is failing in youth -- enthusiasm. Angela Merkel cannot be seen to give

:05:53.:05:57.

in to the Brits this. Her own side once it as well, though some reason

:05:58.:06:04.

the German media says it. When she tried to reach out and said to look

:06:05.:06:08.

at the other candidates, she got such abuse on the right wing press

:06:09.:06:13.

from her own country and party she had to retreat. Janan is right that

:06:14.:06:23.

there is opposition to Juncker, but as long as Cameron turns it into an

:06:24.:06:29.

argument about Britain and Europe, he will strengthen the hand of

:06:30.:06:35.

Juncker. Angela Merkel thinks Juncker is inappropriate. She did

:06:36.:06:40.

not like the process, which was a power grab by the European

:06:41.:06:43.

Parliament, but when David Cameron went to the council and said that if

:06:44.:06:47.

I don't get my way, we could leave the EU, that led to the backlash,

:06:48.:06:54.

most significantly from the SPD in Germany. As Tony Blair says, if only

:06:55.:06:58.

David Cameron had made the argument that Juncker is bad for Europe, then

:06:59.:07:01.

he would have found his natural allies would have felt more

:07:02.:07:06.

comfortable following behind. Enough Europe. I want to show you a

:07:07.:07:14.

picture. See what you think of this. When I saw that picture, I thought

:07:15.:07:18.

it was so ludicrous that it had to have been photo shop. Discuss. He is

:07:19.:07:25.

holding it with a certain disdain, looking a bit hangdog. A disastrous

:07:26.:07:30.

picture for Ed Miliband. His strength is authenticity, sincerity

:07:31.:07:35.

and cleverness. And he blows all of that. He was the one who took on

:07:36.:07:38.

Murdoch, very bravely and dangerously, and one, really. Now

:07:39.:07:43.

there he is supporting Murdoch's son. It's a big mistake, not just in

:07:44.:07:47.

Liverpool, where obviously they are particularly incensed. And then he

:07:48.:07:55.

apologises. Sort of apologises and understands why Liverpool feels

:07:56.:07:59.

upset. But it is a fundamental error and I hope he learns from this, that

:08:00.:08:03.

he must absolutely stay true to himself. That's all he's got going

:08:04.:08:08.

for him. Who do we blame? His advisers or himself? In the end

:08:09.:08:16.

himself. Nobody forced him to do it. On this one, he called it wrong

:08:17.:08:23.

It's a sign of the rather the bridal state of the Labour Party is that

:08:24.:08:30.

his candidates were vocal in attacking him doing this. It's a

:08:31.:08:39.

sign of how readable Ed Miliband is at Parliamentary level. I don't

:08:40.:08:41.

think you should have apologised. The mistake he made was associating

:08:42.:08:50.

himself with that newspaper. The mistake was the prior three years

:08:51.:08:55.

when he went too far as portraying the Murdoch empire beyond the pale.

:08:56.:09:00.

He made a case against phone hacking and offences in that regard without

:09:01.:09:05.

going as far as he did with the rhetoric. To do that, and then pose

:09:06.:09:09.

with the Sun newspaper, the juxtaposition is what did for him,

:09:10.:09:13.

not the mere fact of posing with it. Maybe he did not know what he was

:09:14.:09:18.

doing because we were told he doesn't read the British

:09:19.:09:21.

newspapers. It was football, and he has posed with the Sun newspaper

:09:22.:09:26.

before. Mr Cameron and Mr Clegg posed as well. But with the Sun

:09:27.:09:30.

newspaper and football, you tread carefully. That was the mistake You

:09:31.:09:34.

get the impression from the picture that he looks so uncomfortable that

:09:35.:09:38.

you wonder whether there was a full process of consultation that went on

:09:39.:09:42.

within his media operation, within his political operation. Was he

:09:43.:09:45.

fully aware of what would happen question what he looks so incredibly

:09:46.:09:49.

uncomfortable. But at the end of the day, leaders have to take

:09:50.:09:53.

responsibility. It is cultural as well. That picture says, I am down

:09:54.:09:58.

there with the football blokes and you think, you are not. That is not

:09:59.:10:03.

what people will vote for. Be yourself and don't pretend to be

:10:04.:10:05.

something else because it never works. But the polls suggest that

:10:06.:10:10.

the British voters don't yet see Ed Miliband as prime ministerial. The

:10:11.:10:16.

worst thing you can then do is get involved in stunts that are more

:10:17.:10:19.

likely to reinforce that idea than counter it. There was a precedent

:10:20.:10:23.

for it in the last parliament which was Gordon Brown's attempts to feign

:10:24.:10:30.

a populist touch. He did it by telling the contents of his iPod.

:10:31.:10:35.

The Arctic monkeys. It always jarred because he was trying too hard. Not

:10:36.:10:40.

uniquely guilty of, Ed Miliband all the other leaders have done it. At

:10:41.:10:44.

the moment he more vulnerable. Yes, and he is less popular than his

:10:45.:10:49.

party. Labour has quite a popular brand, in a resilient way, in a way

:10:50.:10:53.

they don't with the Tories, yet their leader is a personal problem.

:10:54.:10:57.

The pressure is on him to do stunts like this. Will there be a shadow

:10:58.:11:03.

cabinet reshuffle? Yes, we have to get the cabinet reshuffle out of the

:11:04.:11:06.

way first, and that might come next week, maybe by the time of the

:11:07.:11:10.

summer recess, but the first thing that the prime Minister do is work

:11:11.:11:13.

out who is the UK candidate for the European Commissioner. Is it not the

:11:14.:11:20.

case probably that Ed Balls is becoming semi-detached from the Ed

:11:21.:11:25.

Miliband project? I don't think entirely. Nothing gets agreed

:11:26.:11:28.

without both of the end are green. Ed Balls is controversial. He has

:11:29.:11:31.

great pluses and minuses and is a big figure. Labour doesn't have that

:11:32.:11:36.

many big figures. It's quite hard to think who would be a heavy hitter as

:11:37.:11:41.

a possible Chancellor. He is a convincing chancellor to the future,

:11:42.:11:46.

Love him. He has the heft -- love him or hate him. Any possibility Ed

:11:47.:11:51.

Balls could be moved as shadow chancellor? The timing is convenient

:11:52.:11:56.

because the Scottish referendum ends in the autumn and Alistair Darling

:11:57.:11:59.

becomes a free man, win or lose I don't think Ed Balls will be removed

:12:00.:12:04.

because moving him would be an admission that everything the Labour

:12:05.:12:06.

Party said about the economy to the preceding four years has been a

:12:07.:12:10.

mistake. And you can't do that nine months before a general election.

:12:11.:12:15.

You invite ridicule. But relations between Ed Miliband and Ed Balls are

:12:16.:12:19.

not great at the moment. The Ed Miliband team are very, very

:12:20.:12:22.

suspicious of this new love in between Ed Balls and Peter

:12:23.:12:26.

Mandelson. Mandelson likes to say that he spotted the Ed Balls talents

:12:27.:12:30.

in the original place and appointed him to the Gordon Brown team after

:12:31.:12:36.

the disaster of 1992. But things obviously went awry, and now Ed

:12:37.:12:40.

Balls and Peter Mandelson Avenue Rappaport, and that is with enormous

:12:41.:12:45.

suspicion -- they have a new Rappaport. With good reason because

:12:46.:12:50.

it's about policy. It's about the attitude towards business. Should

:12:51.:12:52.

they be out there saying they will get the tax dodgers, Starbucks,

:12:53.:12:58.

Vodafone, are we going to take on business in a big way? In a way that

:12:59.:13:03.

Ed Miliband has quite bravely said. On the other hand, Ed Balls and

:13:04.:13:06.

Peter Mandelson are saying, hang on, we only won in 1997 by being

:13:07.:13:10.

business friendly. Sorry to rush you. We are running out of time

:13:11.:13:13.

The Daily Politics will be back every day this week at midday,

:13:14.:13:17.

and I'll be back here next Sunday when I'll be joined

:13:18.:13:19.

by the shadow work and pensions secretary Rachel Reeves.Remember

:13:20.:13:22.

if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.

:13:23.:13:53.

Magnificent. The power base of medieval England.

:13:54.:14:00.

Charles' ceiling was a piece of breathtaking arrogance.

:14:01.:14:05.

You get a sense of the people who made the palaces.

:14:06.:14:13.

as I unlock the secrets of Britain's great palaces.

:14:14.:14:17.

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