Browse content similar to 27/11/2016. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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It's Sunday morning and this is the Sunday Politics. | :00:36. | :00:40. | |
Was Fidel Castro a revolutionary hero or a murderous dictator? | :00:41. | :00:44. | |
After the Cuban leader's death, politicians divide over his legacy. | :00:45. | :00:49. | |
Can the NHS in England find billions of pounds' worth of efficiency | :00:50. | :00:53. | |
The Shadow Health Secretary joins me live. | :00:54. | :00:59. | |
Should we have a second Brexit referendum on the terms | :01:00. | :01:01. | |
of the eventual withdrawal deal that's struck with the EU? | :01:02. | :01:06. | |
Former Lib Dem leader Paddy Ashdown and former Conservative cabinet | :01:07. | :01:08. | |
minister Owen Paterson go head-to-head. | :01:09. | :01:11. | |
Here in the East: Years of cuts in subsidies for buses puts | :01:12. | :01:14. | |
transport in rural areas at risk, so will the new bus bill | :01:15. | :01:17. | |
And with me, Tom Newton Dunn, Isabel Oakeshott and Steve Richards. | :01:18. | :01:34. | |
They'll be tweeting throughout the programme | :01:35. | :01:37. | |
Political leaders around the world have been reacting to the news | :01:38. | :01:44. | |
of the death of Fidel Castro, the Cuban revolutionary who came | :01:45. | :01:46. | |
to power in 1959 and ushered in a Marxist revolution. | :01:47. | :01:50. | |
Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson described the former leader | :01:51. | :01:56. | |
as an "historic if controversial figure" and said his death marked | :01:57. | :01:58. | |
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said Castro was "a champion of social | :01:59. | :02:02. | |
justice" who had "seen off a lot of US presidents" | :02:03. | :02:05. | |
President-elect Donald Trump described the former Cuban leader | :02:06. | :02:09. | |
as a "brutal dictator", adding that he hoped his death | :02:10. | :02:12. | |
would begin a new era "in which the wonderful Cuban people | :02:13. | :02:16. | |
finally live in the freedom they so richly deserve". | :02:17. | :02:21. | |
Meanwhile, the President of the European Commission, | :02:22. | :02:22. | |
Jean-Claude Juncker, said the controversial leader | :02:23. | :02:26. | |
was "a hero for many" but "his legacy will be judged | :02:27. | :02:28. | |
I guess we had worked that out ourselves. What do you make of the | :02:29. | :02:43. | |
reactions so far across the political divide? Predictable. And I | :02:44. | :02:48. | |
noticed that Jeremy Corbyn has come in for criticism for his tribute to | :02:49. | :02:55. | |
Castro. But I think it was the right thing for him to do. We all know he | :02:56. | :03:00. | |
was an admirer. He could have sat there for eight hours in his house, | :03:01. | :03:03. | |
agonising over some bland statement which didn't alienate the many | :03:04. | :03:06. | |
people who want to wade into attacked Castro. It would have been | :03:07. | :03:10. | |
inauthentic and would have just added to the sort of mainstream | :03:11. | :03:15. | |
consensus, and I think he was right to say what he believed in this | :03:16. | :03:19. | |
respect. Elsewhere, it has been wholly predictable that there would | :03:20. | :03:24. | |
be this device, because he divided opinion in such an emotive way. | :03:25. | :03:30. | |
Steve, I take your point about authenticity and it might have | :03:31. | :03:33. | |
looked a bit lame for Jeremy Corbyn to pretend that he had no affection | :03:34. | :03:39. | |
for Fidel Castro at all, but do you think he made a bit of an error | :03:40. | :03:44. | |
dismissing Castro's record, the negative side of it as just a floor? | :03:45. | :03:48. | |
He could have acknowledged in more elaborate terms the huge costs. He | :03:49. | :03:54. | |
wanted to go on about the health and education, which if you actually | :03:55. | :03:58. | |
look up the indices on that, they are good relative to other | :03:59. | :04:01. | |
countries. But they have come at such a huge cost. He was not a | :04:02. | :04:08. | |
champion of criminal justice. If he had done that, it would have been | :04:09. | :04:11. | |
utterly inauthentic. He doesn't believe it. And he would have | :04:12. | :04:17. | |
thought there would be many other people focusing on all the epic | :04:18. | :04:21. | |
failings. So he focused on what he believed. There are times when | :04:22. | :04:28. | |
Corbyn's prominence in the media world now as leader widens the | :04:29. | :04:32. | |
debate in an interesting and important way. I am not aware of any | :04:33. | :04:40. | |
criticisms that Mr Corbyn has ever announced about Mr Castro. There | :04:41. | :04:51. | |
were four words in his statement yesterday which is spin doctor would | :04:52. | :04:54. | |
have forced him to say, for all his flaws. He was on this Cuban | :04:55. | :05:03. | |
solidarity committee, which didn't exist to criticise Castro. It | :05:04. | :05:08. | |
existed to help protect Castro from those, particularly the Americans, | :05:09. | :05:12. | |
who were trying to undermine him. And Corbyn made a big deal yesterday | :05:13. | :05:16. | |
saying he has always called out human rights abuses all over the | :05:17. | :05:22. | |
world. But he said that in general, I call out human rights abuses. He | :05:23. | :05:26. | |
never said, I have called out human rights abuses in Cuba. In the weeks | :05:27. | :05:33. | |
ahead, more will come out about what these human rights abuses were. The | :05:34. | :05:41. | |
lid will come off what was actually happening. Some well authenticated | :05:42. | :05:47. | |
stories are pretty horrendous. I was speaking to a journalist who was | :05:48. | :05:53. | |
working there in the 1990s, who gave me vivid examples of that, and there | :05:54. | :06:00. | |
will be more to come. I still go back to, when a major figure diet | :06:01. | :06:04. | |
and you are a leader who has admired but major figure, you have to say | :06:05. | :06:11. | |
it. That is the trap he has fallen into. He has proved every criticism | :06:12. | :06:27. | |
that he is a duck old ideologue. But he is not the only one. Prime | :06:28. | :06:33. | |
Minister Trudeau was so if uses that I wondered if they were going to | :06:34. | :06:40. | |
open up a book of condolences. I think it reinforces Corbyn's failing | :06:41. | :06:44. | |
brand. It may be authentic, but authentic isn't working for him. | :06:45. | :06:48. | |
When I was driving, I heard Trevor Phillips, who is a Blairite, saying | :06:49. | :06:55. | |
the record was mixed and there were a lot of things to admire as well as | :06:56. | :07:00. | |
all the terrible things. So it is quite nuanced. But if you are a | :07:01. | :07:03. | |
leader issuing a sound bite, there is no space for new ones. You either | :07:04. | :07:08. | |
decide to go for the consensus, which is to set up on the whole, it | :07:09. | :07:15. | |
was a brutal dictatorship. Or you say, here is an extraordinary figure | :07:16. | :07:19. | |
worthy of admiration. In my view, he was right to say what he believed. | :07:20. | :07:23. | |
There was still a dilemma for the British government over who they | :07:24. | :07:27. | |
sent to the funeral. Do they sent nobody, do they say and Boris | :07:28. | :07:34. | |
Johnson as a post-ironic statement? There is now a post-Castro Cuba to | :07:35. | :07:42. | |
deal with. Trump was quite diplomatic about post-Castro Cuba. | :07:43. | :07:45. | |
And Boris Johnson's statement was restrained. The thing about Mr | :07:46. | :07:54. | |
Castro was the longevity, 50 years of keeping Marxism on the island. | :07:55. | :07:57. | |
That was what made it so fascinating. | :07:58. | :07:59. | |
Before the last election, George Osborne promised the NHS | :08:00. | :08:02. | |
in England a real-terms funding boost of ?8 billion per year by 2020 | :08:03. | :08:06. | |
on the understanding that NHS bosses would also find ?22 billion worth | :08:07. | :08:09. | |
Since last autumn, NHS managers have been drawing up what they're calling | :08:10. | :08:16. | |
"Sustainability and Transformation Plans" to make these savings, | :08:17. | :08:19. | |
but some of the proposals are already running into local | :08:20. | :08:25. | |
opposition, while Labour say they amount to huge cuts to the NHS. | :08:26. | :08:28. | |
Help is on the way for an elderly person in need in Hertfordshire. | :08:29. | :08:34. | |
But east of England ambulance call operators | :08:35. | :08:37. | |
they're sending an early intervention vehicle | :08:38. | :08:42. | |
with a council-employed occupational therapist on board. | :08:43. | :08:49. | |
It's being piloted here for over 65s with | :08:50. | :08:51. | |
When they arrive, a paramedic judges if the patient can be | :08:52. | :08:57. | |
treated immediately at home without a trip to hospital. | :08:58. | :09:00. | |
Around 80% of patients have been treated this way, | :09:01. | :09:02. | |
taking the strain off urgently-needed hospital beds, | :09:03. | :09:05. | |
So the early intervention team has assessed the patient and decided | :09:06. | :09:11. | |
The key to successful integration for Hertfordshire being able | :09:12. | :09:24. | |
to collaboratively look at how we use our resources, | :09:25. | :09:26. | |
to have pooled budgets, to allow us to understand | :09:27. | :09:29. | |
where spend is, and to let us make conscientious decisions about how | :09:30. | :09:32. | |
best to use that money, to come up with ideas to problems | :09:33. | :09:37. | |
that sit between our organisations, to look at things collaboratively. | :09:38. | :09:39. | |
This Hertfordshire hospital is also a good example of how | :09:40. | :09:41. | |
You won't find an A unit or overnight beds here any more. | :09:42. | :09:49. | |
The closest ones are 20 minutes down the road. | :09:50. | :09:55. | |
What's left is nurse-led care in an NHS-built hospital. | :09:56. | :09:57. | |
Despite a politically toxic change, this reconfiguration went | :09:58. | :10:00. | |
through after broad public and political consultation | :10:01. | :10:02. | |
with hospital clinicians and GPs on board. | :10:03. | :10:06. | |
It's a notable achievement that's surely of interest to 60% of NHS | :10:07. | :10:10. | |
trusts in England that reported a deficit at the end of September. | :10:11. | :10:16. | |
It's not just here that the NHS needs to save money and provide | :10:17. | :10:19. | |
The Government is going to pour in an extra ?8 billion into the NHS | :10:20. | :10:26. | |
in England, but it has demanded ?22 billion | :10:27. | :10:32. | |
worth of efficiencies across the country. | :10:33. | :10:34. | |
In order to deliver that, the NHS has created 44 health | :10:35. | :10:37. | |
and care partnerships, and each one will provide | :10:38. | :10:39. | |
a sustainability and transformation plan, or STP, to integrate care, | :10:40. | :10:43. | |
provide better services and save money. | :10:44. | :10:47. | |
So far, 33 of these 44 regional plans, drawn up by senior people | :10:48. | :10:52. | |
in the health service and local government, | :10:53. | :10:54. | |
The NHS has been through five years of severely constrained spending | :10:55. | :11:01. | |
growth, and there are another 4-5 years on the way at least. | :11:02. | :11:04. | |
STPs themselves are an attempt to deal in a planned way | :11:05. | :11:11. | |
But with plans to close some A units and reduce the number | :11:12. | :11:17. | |
of hospital beds, there's likely to be a tough political battle | :11:18. | :11:22. | |
ahead, with many MPs already up in arms about proposed | :11:23. | :11:26. | |
This Tory backbencher is concerned about the local plans for his | :11:27. | :11:29. | |
I wouldn't call it an efficiency if you are proposing to close | :11:30. | :11:37. | |
all of the beds which are currently provided for those coming out | :11:38. | :11:41. | |
of the acute sector who are elderly and looking | :11:42. | :11:43. | |
That's not a cut, it's not an efficiency saving, | :11:44. | :11:47. | |
All 44 STPs should be published in a month's time, | :11:48. | :11:55. | |
But even before that, they dominated this week's PMQs. | :11:56. | :12:01. | |
The Government's sustainability and transformation plans | :12:02. | :12:03. | |
for the National Health Service hide ?22 billion of cuts. | :12:04. | :12:09. | |
The National Health Service is indeed looking for savings | :12:10. | :12:11. | |
within the NHS, which will be reinvested in the NHS. | :12:12. | :12:16. | |
There will be no escape from angry MPs for the Health Secretary either. | :12:17. | :12:20. | |
Well, I have spoken to the Secretary of State just this week | :12:21. | :12:23. | |
about the importance of community hospitals in general, | :12:24. | :12:28. | |
These are proposals out to consultation. | :12:29. | :12:34. | |
What could happen if these plans get blocked? | :12:35. | :12:39. | |
If STPs cannot be made to work, the planned changes don't come | :12:40. | :12:42. | |
to pass, then the NHS will see over time a sort of unplanned | :12:43. | :12:47. | |
deterioration and services becoming unstable and service | :12:48. | :12:49. | |
The NHS barely featured in this week's Autumn Statement | :12:50. | :12:56. | |
but the Prime Minister insisted beforehand that STPs | :12:57. | :13:03. | |
are in the interests of local people. | :13:04. | :13:04. | |
Her Government's support will now be critical for NHS England | :13:05. | :13:07. | |
to push through these controversial regional plans, | :13:08. | :13:08. | |
which will soon face public scrutiny. | :13:09. | :13:15. | |
We did ask the Department of Health for an interview, | :13:16. | :13:20. | |
I've been joined by the Shadow Health Secretary, | :13:21. | :13:23. | |
Do you accept that the NHS is capable of making ?22 billion of | :13:24. | :13:41. | |
efficiency savings? Well, we are very sceptical, as are number of | :13:42. | :13:44. | |
independent organisations about the ability of the NHS to find 22 | :13:45. | :13:49. | |
billion of efficiencies without that affecting front line care. When you | :13:50. | :13:53. | |
drill down into the 22 billion, based on the information we have | :13:54. | :13:56. | |
been given, and there hasn't been much information, we can see that | :13:57. | :14:00. | |
some of it will come from cutting the budget which go to community | :14:01. | :14:04. | |
pharmacies, which could lead, according to ministers, to 3000 | :14:05. | :14:08. | |
pharmacies closing, which we believe will increase demands on A and | :14:09. | :14:12. | |
GPs, and also that a lot of these changes which are being proposed, | :14:13. | :14:17. | |
which was the focus of the package, we think will mean service cuts at a | :14:18. | :14:24. | |
local level. Do they? The chief executive of NHS England says these | :14:25. | :14:30. | |
efficiency plans are "Incredibly important". He used to work from | :14:31. | :14:33. | |
Labour. The independent King's Fund calls them "The best hope to improve | :14:34. | :14:41. | |
health and care services. There is no plan B". On the sustainable | :14:42. | :14:47. | |
transformation plans, which will be across England to link up physical | :14:48. | :14:51. | |
health, mental health and social care, for those services to | :14:52. | :14:55. | |
collaborate more closely together and move beyond the fragmented | :14:56. | :14:58. | |
system we have at the moment is important. It seems that the ground | :14:59. | :15:04. | |
has shifted. It has moved into filling financial gaps. As we know, | :15:05. | :15:08. | |
the NHS is going through the biggest financial squeeze in its history. By | :15:09. | :15:13. | |
2018, per head spending on the NHS will be falling. If you want to | :15:14. | :15:17. | |
redesign services for the long term in a local area, you need to put the | :15:18. | :15:23. | |
money in. So of course, getting these services working better | :15:24. | :15:25. | |
together and having a greater strategic oversight, which we would | :15:26. | :15:29. | |
have had if we had not got rid of strategic health authority is in the | :15:30. | :15:34. | |
last Parliament. But this is not an attempt to save 22 billion, this is | :15:35. | :15:39. | |
an attempt to spend 22 billion more successfully, don't you accept that? | :15:40. | :15:46. | |
Simon Stevens said we need 8 billion, and we need to find 22 | :15:47. | :15:53. | |
billion of savings. You have to spend 22 billion more efficiently. | :15:54. | :15:59. | |
But the Government have not given that 8 billion to the NHS which they | :16:00. | :16:03. | |
said they would. They said they would do it by 2020. But they have | :16:04. | :16:09. | |
changed the definitions of spending so NHS England will get 8 billion by | :16:10. | :16:14. | |
2020, but they have cut the public health budgets by about 4 million by | :16:15. | :16:20. | |
20 20. The budget that going to initiatives to tackle sexually | :16:21. | :16:24. | |
transmitted diseases, to tackle smoking have been cut back but the | :16:25. | :16:29. | |
commissioning of things like school nurses and health visitors have been | :16:30. | :16:33. | |
cut back as well. Simon Stevens said he can only deliver that five-year | :16:34. | :16:38. | |
project if there is a radical upgrade in public health, which the | :16:39. | :16:41. | |
Government have failed on, and if we deal with social care, and this week | :16:42. | :16:47. | |
there was an... I understand that, but if you don't think the | :16:48. | :16:54. | |
efficiency drive can free up 22 billion to take us to 30 billion by | :16:55. | :16:59. | |
2020, where would you get the money from? I have been in this post now | :17:00. | :17:03. | |
for five or six weeks and I want to have a big consultation with | :17:04. | :17:07. | |
everybody who works in the health sector, as well as patients, carers | :17:08. | :17:12. | |
and families. Though you don't know? I think it would be surprised if I | :17:13. | :17:19. | |
had an arbitrary figure this soon into the job. Your party said they | :17:20. | :17:25. | |
expected election of spring by this year, you need to have some idea by | :17:26. | :17:30. | |
now, you inherited a portfolio from Diane Abbott, did she have no idea? | :17:31. | :17:35. | |
To govern is to make choices and we would make different choices. The | :17:36. | :17:40. | |
budget last year scored billions of giveaways in things like | :17:41. | :17:47. | |
co-operating -- corporation tax. What I do want to do... Is work on a | :17:48. | :17:58. | |
plan and the general election, whenever it comes, next year or in | :17:59. | :18:04. | |
2020 or in between, to have costed plan for the NHS. But your party is | :18:05. | :18:08. | |
committed to balancing the books on current spending, that is currently | :18:09. | :18:14. | |
John McDonnell, the Shadow Chancellor's position. What we are | :18:15. | :18:19. | |
talking about, this extra 30 billion, that is essentially current | :18:20. | :18:24. | |
spending so if it doesn't come from efficiency savings, where does the | :18:25. | :18:27. | |
money come from? Some of it is also capital. Mainly current spending. If | :18:28. | :18:34. | |
you look at the details of the OBR, they have switched a million from | :18:35. | :18:46. | |
the capital into revenue. Why -- how do you balance spending? | :18:47. | :18:49. | |
That is why we need to have a debate. Every time we ask for | :18:50. | :18:58. | |
Labour's policy, we are always told me a debate. Surely it is time to | :18:59. | :19:03. | |
give some idea of what you stand for? There's huge doubts about the | :19:04. | :19:06. | |
Government 's policy on this. You are the opposition, how would you do | :19:07. | :19:11. | |
it? I want to work with John McDonnell to find a package to give | :19:12. | :19:16. | |
the NHS the money it needs, but of course our Shadow Chancellor, like | :19:17. | :19:19. | |
any Shadow Chancellor at this stage in the cycle, will want to see what | :19:20. | :19:23. | |
the books look like a head of an election before making commitments. | :19:24. | :19:29. | |
I am clear that the Labour Party has to go into the next general election | :19:30. | :19:32. | |
with a clear policy to give the NHS the funding it needs because it has | :19:33. | :19:35. | |
been going through the largest financial squeeze in its history. | :19:36. | :19:40. | |
You say Labour will always give the NHS the money it needs, that is not | :19:41. | :19:45. | |
a policy, it is a blank cheque. It is an indication of our commitment | :19:46. | :19:50. | |
to the NHS. Under this Conservative government, the NHS has been getting | :19:51. | :19:54. | |
a 1% increase. Throughout its history it has usually have about | :19:55. | :20:00. | |
4%. Under the last Labour government it was getting 4%, before that | :20:01. | :20:04. | |
substantially more. We think the NHS should get more but I don't have | :20:05. | :20:07. | |
access to the NHS books in front of me. The public thinks there needs to | :20:08. | :20:17. | |
be more money spent on health but they also think that should go cap | :20:18. | :20:21. | |
in hand with the money being more efficiently spent, which is what | :20:22. | :20:27. | |
this efficiency drive is designed to release 22 billion. Do you have an | :20:28. | :20:32. | |
efficiency drive if it is not the Government's one? Of course we | :20:33. | :20:37. | |
agree. We agree the NHS should be more efficient, we want to see | :20:38. | :20:42. | |
productivity increased. Do know how to do that? One way is through | :20:43. | :20:49. | |
investments, maintenance, but there is a 5 million maintenance backlog. | :20:50. | :20:55. | |
One of the most high risk backlogs is something like 730 million. They | :20:56. | :21:02. | |
are going to switch the capital spend into revenue spend. I believe | :21:03. | :21:06. | |
that when you invest in maintenance and capital in the NHS, that | :21:07. | :21:10. | |
contribute to increasing its productivity. You are now talking | :21:11. | :21:14. | |
about 5 billion the maintenance, the chief executive says it needs 30 | :21:15. | :21:20. | |
billion more by 2020 as a minimum so that 35 billion. You want to spend | :21:21. | :21:27. | |
more on social care, another for 5 billion on that so we have proper | :21:28. | :21:31. | |
care in the community. By that calculation I'm up to about 40 | :21:32. | :21:35. | |
billion, which is fine, except where do you get the and balance the | :21:36. | :21:39. | |
account at the same time? We will have to come up with a plan for that | :21:40. | :21:44. | |
and that's why I will work with our Shadow Treasury team to come up with | :21:45. | :21:47. | |
that plan when they head into the general election. At the moment we | :21:48. | :21:52. | |
are saying to the NHS, sorry, we are not going to give you the | :21:53. | :21:55. | |
investment, which is why we are seeing patient care deteriorating. | :21:56. | :22:03. | |
The staff are doing incredible things but 180,000 are waiting in | :22:04. | :22:09. | |
A beyond four hours, record levels of people delayed in beds in | :22:10. | :22:12. | |
hospitals because there are not the beds in the community to go to save | :22:13. | :22:16. | |
the NHS needs the investment. We know that and we know the | :22:17. | :22:20. | |
Government's response to that and many think it is inadequate. What | :22:21. | :22:24. | |
I'm trying to get from you is what your response would be and what your | :22:25. | :22:28. | |
reaction will be to these efficiency plans. Your colleague Heidi | :22:29. | :22:32. | |
Alexander, she had your job earlier this year, she warned of the danger | :22:33. | :22:39. | |
of knee jerk blanket opposition to local efficiency plans. Do you agree | :22:40. | :22:46. | |
with that? Yes. So every time a hospital is going to close as a | :22:47. | :22:52. | |
result of this, and some will, it is Labour default position not just | :22:53. | :22:56. | |
going to be we are against it? That is why we are going to judge each of | :22:57. | :23:00. | |
these sustainability plans by a number of yardsticks. We want to see | :23:01. | :23:05. | |
if they have the support of local clinicians, we want to see if they | :23:06. | :23:08. | |
have the support of local authorities because they now have a | :23:09. | :23:11. | |
role in the delivery of health care. We want to see if they make the | :23:12. | :23:15. | |
right decisions for the long-term trends in population for local area. | :23:16. | :23:20. | |
We want to see if they integrate social care and health. If they | :23:21. | :23:23. | |
don't and therefore you will not bank that as an efficiency saving, | :23:24. | :23:29. | |
you will say no, that's not the way to go, you are left then with | :23:30. | :23:33. | |
finding the alternative funding to keep the NHS going. If you are | :23:34. | :23:39. | |
cutting beds, for example the proposal is to cut something like | :23:40. | :23:45. | |
5000 beds in Derbyshire and if there is the space in the community sector | :23:46. | :23:49. | |
in Derbyshire, that will cause big problems for the NHS in the long | :23:50. | :23:53. | |
term so it is a false economy. An example like that, we would be very | :23:54. | :23:58. | |
sceptical the plans could work. Would it not be honest, given the | :23:59. | :24:02. | |
sums of money involved and your doubts about the efficiency plan, | :24:03. | :24:07. | |
which are shared by many people, to just say, look, among the wealthy | :24:08. | :24:13. | |
nations, we spend a lower proportion of our GDP on health than most of | :24:14. | :24:18. | |
the other countries, European countries included, we need to put | :24:19. | :24:24. | |
up tax if we want a proper NHS. Wouldn't that be honest? I'm not the | :24:25. | :24:29. | |
Shadow Chancellor, I don't make taxation policy. You are tempting me | :24:30. | :24:35. | |
down a particular road by you or I smile. John McDonnell will come up | :24:36. | :24:39. | |
with our taxation policy. We have had an ambition to meet the European | :24:40. | :24:43. | |
average, the way these things are measured have changed since then, | :24:44. | :24:46. | |
but we did have that ambition and for a few years we met it. We need | :24:47. | :24:53. | |
substantial investment in the NHS. Everyone accepts it was | :24:54. | :24:55. | |
extraordinary that there wasn't an extra penny for the NHS in the | :24:56. | :25:00. | |
Autumn Statement this week. And as we go into the general election, | :25:01. | :25:05. | |
whenever it is, we will have a plan for the NHS. Come back and speak to | :25:06. | :25:09. | |
us when you know what you are going to do. Thank you. | :25:10. | :25:11. | |
Theresa May has promised to trigger formal Brexit negotiations | :25:12. | :25:14. | |
before the end of March, but the Prime Minister must wait | :25:15. | :25:16. | |
for the Supreme Court to decide whether parliament must vote | :25:17. | :25:19. | |
If that is the Supreme Court's conclusion, the Liberal Democrats | :25:20. | :25:22. | |
and others in parliament have said they'll demand a second EU | :25:23. | :25:25. | |
referendum on the terms of the eventual Brexit deal before | :25:26. | :25:27. | |
And last week, two former Prime Ministers suggested | :25:28. | :25:30. | |
that the referendum result could be reversed. | :25:31. | :25:34. | |
In an interview with the New Statesman on Thursday, | :25:35. | :25:37. | |
Tony Blair said, "It can be stopped if the British people decide that, | :25:38. | :25:40. | |
having seen what it means, the pain-gain cost-benefit analysis | :25:41. | :25:42. | |
John Major also weighed in, telling a meeting | :25:43. | :25:49. | |
of the National Liberal Club that the terms of Brexit | :25:50. | :25:51. | |
were being dictated by the "tyranny of the majority". | :25:52. | :25:53. | |
He also said there is a "perfectly credible case" | :25:54. | :25:56. | |
That prompted the former Conservative leader | :25:57. | :25:59. | |
Iain Duncan Smith to criticise John Major. | :26:00. | :26:03. | |
He told the BBC, "The idea we delay everything simply | :26:04. | :26:05. | |
because they disagree with the original result does | :26:06. | :26:07. | |
seem to me an absolute dismissal of democracy." | :26:08. | :26:13. | |
So, is there a realistic chance of a second referendum on the terms | :26:14. | :26:16. | |
of whatever Brexit deal Theresa May manages to secure? | :26:17. | :26:20. | |
Lib Dem party leader Tim Farron has said, "We want to respect | :26:21. | :26:24. | |
the will of the people and that means they must have their say | :26:25. | :26:27. | |
in a referendum on the terms of the deal." | :26:28. | :26:31. | |
But the Lib Dems have just eight MPs - they'll need Labour support | :26:32. | :26:34. | |
One ally is former Labour leadership candidate Owen Smith. | :26:35. | :26:39. | |
He backs the idea of a second referendum. | :26:40. | :26:43. | |
But yesterday the party's deputy leader, Tom Watson, said that, | :26:44. | :26:46. | |
"Unlike the Lib Dem Brexit Deniers, we believe in respecting | :26:47. | :26:48. | |
To discuss whether or not there should be a second referendum | :26:49. | :26:56. | |
on the terms of the Brexit deal, I've been joined by two | :26:57. | :26:59. | |
In Somerset is the former Lib Dem leader Paddy Ashdown, | :27:00. | :27:03. | |
and in Shropshire is the former Conservative cabinet minister | :27:04. | :27:05. | |
Paddy Ashdown, let me come to you first. When the British people have | :27:06. | :27:17. | |
spoken, you do what they command, either you believe in democracy or | :27:18. | :27:22. | |
you don't. When democracy speaks, we obey. Your words on the night of the | :27:23. | :27:29. | |
referendum, what's changed? Nothing has changed, Andrew, that's what I | :27:30. | :27:32. | |
said and what I still believe in. The British people have spoken, we | :27:33. | :27:37. | |
will not block Parliament debating the Brexit decision, Article 50, but | :27:38. | :27:43. | |
we will introduce an amendment to say that we need to consult the | :27:44. | :27:50. | |
British people, not about if we go out but what destination we would | :27:51. | :27:57. | |
then achieve. There is a vast difference in ordinary people's | :27:58. | :28:01. | |
lives between the so-called hard Brexit and soft Brexit. Soft Brexit, | :28:02. | :28:06. | |
you remain in the single market, you have to accept and agree on | :28:07. | :28:10. | |
immigration. Hard Brexit you are out of the single market, we have many | :28:11. | :28:18. | |
fewer jobs... Why didn't you say before the referendum there would be | :28:19. | :28:24. | |
a second referendum on the terms? Forgive me, I said it on many | :28:25. | :28:28. | |
occasions, you may not have covered it, Andrew, but that's a different | :28:29. | :28:33. | |
thing. In every speech I gave I said this, and this has proved to be | :28:34. | :28:38. | |
true, since those who recommended Brexit refused to tell us the | :28:39. | :28:41. | |
destination they were recommending, they refuse to give any detail about | :28:42. | :28:46. | |
the destination, if we did vote to go out, it would probably be | :28:47. | :28:50. | |
appropriate to decide which destination, hard Brexit or soft | :28:51. | :28:55. | |
Brexit we go to. They deliberately obscure that because it made it more | :28:56. | :28:59. | |
difficult to argue the case. It wasn't part of the official campaign | :29:00. | :29:05. | |
but let me come to Owen Paterson. What's wrong with a referendum on | :29:06. | :29:09. | |
the terms of the deal? We voted to leave but we don't really know on | :29:10. | :29:13. | |
what conditions we leave so what's wrong with negotiating the deal and | :29:14. | :29:16. | |
putting that deal to the British people? This would be a ridiculous | :29:17. | :29:25. | |
idea, it would be a complete gift to the EU negotiators to go for an | :29:26. | :29:29. | |
impossibly difficult deal because they want to do everything to make | :29:30. | :29:33. | |
sure that Brexit does not go through. This nonsense idea of hard | :29:34. | :29:38. | |
Brexit and soft Brexit, it was never discussed during the referendum | :29:39. | :29:42. | |
campaign. We made it clear we wanted to take back control, that means | :29:43. | :29:48. | |
making our own laws, raising and spending the money agreed by elected | :29:49. | :29:52. | |
politicians, getting control of our own borders back, and getting | :29:53. | :29:55. | |
control of our ability to do trade deals around the world. That was | :29:56. | :29:59. | |
clear at all stages of the referendum. We got 17.4 million | :30:00. | :30:05. | |
votes, the biggest vote in history for any issue, that 52%, 10% more | :30:06. | :30:10. | |
than John Major got and he was happy with his record number of 14 | :30:11. | :30:16. | |
million, more than Tony Blair got, which was 43%, so we have a very | :30:17. | :30:20. | |
clear mandate. Time and again people come up to me and say when are we | :30:21. | :30:24. | |
going to get on with this. The big problem is uncertainty. We want to | :30:25. | :30:28. | |
trigger Article 50, have the negotiation and get to a better | :30:29. | :30:30. | |
place. OK, I need to get a debate going. | :30:31. | :30:40. | |
Paddy Ashdown, the EU doesn't want us to leave. If they knew there was | :30:41. | :30:44. | |
going to be a second referendum, surely there was going to be a | :30:45. | :30:46. | |
second referendum, surely their incentive would be to give us the | :30:47. | :30:49. | |
worst possible deal would vote against it would put us in a | :30:50. | :30:54. | |
ridiculous negotiating position. On the contrary, the government could | :30:55. | :30:58. | |
go and negotiate with the European Union and anyway, the opinion of the | :30:59. | :31:01. | |
European Union is less important than the opinion of the British | :31:02. | :31:05. | |
people. It seems to me that Owen Paterson made the case for me | :31:06. | :31:09. | |
precisely. They refuse to discuss what kind of destination. Britain | :31:10. | :31:16. | |
voted for departure, but not a destination. Because Owen Paterson | :31:17. | :31:18. | |
and his colleagues refused to discuss what their model was. So the | :31:19. | :31:24. | |
range of options here and the impact on the people of Britain is huge. | :31:25. | :31:27. | |
There is nothing to stop the government going to negotiate, | :31:28. | :31:30. | |
getting the best deal it can and go into the British people and saying, | :31:31. | :31:36. | |
this is the deal, guys, do you agree? Owen Paterson? It is simple. | :31:37. | :31:43. | |
The British people voted to leave. We voted to take back control of our | :31:44. | :31:50. | |
laws, our money, our borders. But most people don't know the shape of | :31:51. | :31:53. | |
what the deal would be. So why not have a vote on it? Because it would | :31:54. | :32:00. | |
be a gift to the EU negotiators to drive the worst possible deal in the | :32:01. | :32:06. | |
hope that it might be chucked out with a second referendum. The | :32:07. | :32:09. | |
biggest danger is the uncertainty. We have the biggest vote in British | :32:10. | :32:16. | |
history. You have said all that. It was your side that originally | :32:17. | :32:20. | |
proposed a second referendum. The director of Leave said, there is a | :32:21. | :32:25. | |
strong democratic case for a referendum on what the deal looks | :32:26. | :32:31. | |
like. Your side. Come on, you are digging up a blog from June of 2015. | :32:32. | :32:42. | |
He said he had not come to a conclusion. He said it is a distinct | :32:43. | :32:50. | |
possibility. No senior members of the campaign said we would have a | :32:51. | :32:55. | |
second referendum. It is worth chucking Paddy the quote he gave on | :32:56. | :32:59. | |
ITV news, whether it is a majority of 1% or 20%, when the British | :33:00. | :33:03. | |
people have spoken, you do what they command. People come up to me and | :33:04. | :33:09. | |
keep asking, when are you going to get on with it? What do you say to | :33:10. | :33:19. | |
that, Paddy Ashdown? Owen Paterson has obviously not been paying | :33:20. | :33:22. | |
attention. You ask me that question at the start. Owen and his kind have | :33:23. | :33:32. | |
to stick to the same argument. During the referendum, when we said | :33:33. | :33:36. | |
that the Europeans have it in their interest to picket tough for us, | :33:37. | :33:42. | |
they would suffer as well. And that has proved to be right. The European | :33:43. | :33:46. | |
Union does not wish to hand as a bad deal, because they may suffer in the | :33:47. | :33:51. | |
process. We need the best deal for both sides. I can't understand why | :33:52. | :34:03. | |
Owen is now reversing that argument. Here is the question I am going to | :34:04. | :34:07. | |
ask you. If we have a second referendum on the deal and we vote | :34:08. | :34:16. | |
by a very small amount, by a sliver, to stay in, can we then make it | :34:17. | :34:27. | |
best-of-3? No, Andrew! Vince Cable says he thinks if you won, he would | :34:28. | :34:32. | |
have to have a decider. You will have to put that income tax, because | :34:33. | :34:36. | |
I don't remember when he said that. -- you have to put that in context. | :34:37. | :34:45. | |
Independent, 19th of September. That is a decision on the outcome. The | :34:46. | :34:51. | |
central point is that the British people voted for departure, not a | :34:52. | :34:55. | |
destination. In response to the claim that this is undemocratic, if | :34:56. | :35:00. | |
it is democratic to have one referendum, how can it be | :35:01. | :35:06. | |
undemocratic to have two? Owen Paterson, the British government, on | :35:07. | :35:09. | |
the brink of triggering article 50, cannot tell us if we will remain | :35:10. | :35:13. | |
members of the single market, if we will remain members of the customs | :35:14. | :35:19. | |
union. From that flows our ability to make trade deals, our attitude | :35:20. | :35:24. | |
towards freedom of movement and the rest of it. Given that the | :35:25. | :35:26. | |
government can't tell us, it is clear that the British people have | :35:27. | :35:30. | |
no idea what the eventual shape will be. That is surely the fundamental | :35:31. | :35:36. | |
case for a second referendum. Emphatically not. They have given a | :35:37. | :35:43. | |
clear vote. That vote was to take back control. What the establishment | :35:44. | :35:50. | |
figures like Paddy should recognise is the shattering damage it would do | :35:51. | :35:53. | |
to the integrity of the whole political process if this was not | :35:54. | :36:00. | |
delivered. People come up to me, as I have said for the third time now, | :36:01. | :36:03. | |
wanting to know when we will get article 50 triggered. Both people | :36:04. | :36:09. | |
who have voted to Remain and to Leave. If we do not deliver this, it | :36:10. | :36:13. | |
will be disastrous for the reputation and integrity of the | :36:14. | :36:17. | |
whole political establishment. Let me put that you Paddy Ashdown. It is | :36:18. | :36:26. | |
very Brussels elite - were ask your question but if we don't like the | :36:27. | :36:29. | |
answer, we will keep asking the question. Did it with the Irish and | :36:30. | :36:38. | |
French. It is... It would really anger the British people, would it | :36:39. | :36:44. | |
not? That is an interesting question, Andrew. I don't think it | :36:45. | :36:48. | |
would. All the evidence I see in public meetings I attended, and I | :36:49. | :36:52. | |
think it is beginning to show in the opinion polls, although there hasn't | :36:53. | :36:55. | |
been a proper one on this yet, I suspect there is a majority in | :36:56. | :36:59. | |
Britain who would wish to see a second referendum on the outcome. | :37:00. | :37:02. | |
They take the same view as I do. What began with an open democratic | :37:03. | :37:07. | |
process cannot end with a government stitch up. Contrary to what Owen | :37:08. | :37:11. | |
suggests, there is public support for this. And far from damaging the | :37:12. | :37:18. | |
government and the political class, it showed that we are prepared to | :37:19. | :37:23. | |
listen. We shall see. Paddy Ashdown, have you eaten your hat yet? Andrew, | :37:24. | :37:32. | |
as you well know, I have eaten five hats. You cannot have a second | :37:33. | :37:37. | |
referendum until you eat your hat on my programme. We will leave it | :37:38. | :37:40. | |
there. Paddy Ashdown and Owen Paterson, thank you much. I have | :37:41. | :37:47. | |
eaten a hat on your programme. I don't remember! | :37:48. | :37:50. | |
It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics. | :37:51. | :37:52. | |
We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now | :37:53. | :38:02. | |
Hello and welcome to Sunday Politics East. | :38:03. | :38:04. | |
Later in the programme, the devolution deal | :38:05. | :38:07. | |
for Cambridgeshire and Peterborough goes through, after all of the local | :38:08. | :38:10. | |
Getting those seven councils together to face the problems | :38:11. | :38:17. | |
that the city and the county faces - tackling affordable housing, | :38:18. | :38:19. | |
sorting out transport issues and equality issues | :38:20. | :38:21. | |
on a bigger geography - is right for our residents. | :38:22. | :38:26. | |
What hope is there for our rural bus services in | :38:27. | :38:32. | |
Here with me today, Shadow Transport Minister | :38:33. | :38:37. | |
and MP for Cambridge, Daniel Zeichner, | :38:38. | :38:40. | |
and Ian Stewart, Conservative MP for Milton Keynes, | :38:41. | :38:43. | |
who is parliamentary private secretary to Liam Fox, | :38:44. | :38:45. | |
So let's start with the Autumn Statement, | :38:46. | :38:51. | |
the first since the vote to leave the EU. | :38:52. | :38:53. | |
The economy may be slowing down, but there was some good | :38:54. | :38:56. | |
Business rate relief for rural areas is going up from 50% to 100%, | :38:57. | :39:04. | |
which could mean an extra ?2,000 a year for some businesses. | :39:05. | :39:08. | |
And there is another ?2 billion nationally for research spending, | :39:09. | :39:12. | |
which may reassure science and technology firms in this region, | :39:13. | :39:16. | |
who get much of their funding from the EU at the moment. | :39:17. | :39:20. | |
More money was announced for broadband, too - | :39:21. | :39:23. | |
?1 billion nationally to help reach "not spots". | :39:24. | :39:28. | |
But road and rail were the main winners. | :39:29. | :39:30. | |
The Chancellor confirmed millions of pounds to transport links | :39:31. | :39:33. | |
between Cambridge and Oxford via Milton Keynes. | :39:34. | :39:36. | |
110 million is going towards developing the east-west rail link. | :39:37. | :39:41. | |
And Philip Hammond promised ?27 million to make the case | :39:42. | :39:44. | |
for a road expressway along what he called | :39:45. | :39:47. | |
"a transformational tech corridor" between the two university cities, | :39:48. | :39:53. | |
a development that has already proved controversial in the Commons. | :39:54. | :39:57. | |
Mr Speaker, this Autumn Statement is a statement for the elite. | :39:58. | :40:00. | |
The Chancellor said that Oxford and Cambridge expressway will become | :40:01. | :40:03. | |
a "transformational tech corridor", drawing on the world-class research | :40:04. | :40:07. | |
strengths of our two best-known universities. | :40:08. | :40:11. | |
I think the honourable lady fell into the trap | :40:12. | :40:15. | |
of believing this rather stale, antiquated class-war rhetoric | :40:16. | :40:20. | |
that she gets from the leadership of her party. | :40:21. | :40:26. | |
I mean, the Oxford to Cambridge expressway will benefit places | :40:27. | :40:29. | |
I think the point that Valerie was making is that, yes, | :40:30. | :40:41. | |
it is good that we are getting these transport improvements, | :40:42. | :40:43. | |
but what about the people who are really struggling to get | :40:44. | :40:46. | |
by on the estates in Cambridge, who are seeing their benefits cut, | :40:47. | :40:49. | |
There are people on disability allowance having to live on very | :40:50. | :40:53. | |
You have been making the case for more money for science | :40:54. | :41:00. | |
in Cambridge for a long time, so now you have got it. | :41:01. | :41:04. | |
Absolutely, and that I certainly welcome, the extra money | :41:05. | :41:06. | |
But the key issue is, why is it that people | :41:07. | :41:11. | |
who are struggling at the moment should be having to struggle | :41:12. | :41:14. | |
And that is why this is an unfair Autumn Statement - | :41:15. | :41:17. | |
it is not helping people at the bottom. | :41:18. | :41:21. | |
Ian Stewart, I mean, Milton Keynes was mentioned | :41:22. | :41:23. | |
as benefiting from this Oxford-Cambridge road, | :41:24. | :41:27. | |
Absolutely, and I've been campaigning for the east-west | :41:28. | :41:32. | |
This won't just be a local transport project, this will be a key part | :41:33. | :41:37. | |
And the BCR, the benefit cost ratio of this project, | :41:38. | :41:46. | |
it is something like six to one, so it will be an enormous boost | :41:47. | :41:49. | |
Yes, benefiting Oxford, yes, benefiting Cambridge, but also | :41:50. | :41:56. | |
And it will unlock a lot of housing development | :41:57. | :42:01. | |
so I was very, very pleased with this announcement. | :42:02. | :42:08. | |
You must have a lot of people in Milton Keynes who are struggling, | :42:09. | :42:11. | |
Do you think it was an elitist Autumn Statement? | :42:12. | :42:16. | |
No, I think it was an Autumn Statement that was very | :42:17. | :42:18. | |
cleverly focused on getting our economy match-fit. | :42:19. | :42:21. | |
And there is going to be a lot of economic turbulence | :42:22. | :42:24. | |
in the world going forward, and we need to make sure we've got | :42:25. | :42:27. | |
the resilience, we've got the skills, and we are investing | :42:28. | :42:30. | |
in the productive part of our economy. | :42:31. | :42:33. | |
We need to close the productivity gap we have with some | :42:34. | :42:36. | |
So I was very pleased that there was a specific focus | :42:37. | :42:40. | |
on infrastructure and other areas, which will obviously | :42:41. | :42:43. | |
This science money, as I say, you have been | :42:44. | :42:48. | |
going on about for a long time - surely the more successful | :42:49. | :42:51. | |
Cambridge is, the more successful this region is, | :42:52. | :42:54. | |
and that money trickles down to the poorest in society. | :42:55. | :42:56. | |
No, trickle-down absolutely does not work, and that is part of the reason | :42:57. | :43:01. | |
we have seen what has happened with Brexit and with Trump, | :43:02. | :43:03. | |
actually because trickle-down does not work. | :43:04. | :43:05. | |
And actually this was a really rather... | :43:06. | :43:07. | |
It wasn't nearly bold enough, this Autumn Statement. | :43:08. | :43:11. | |
We have actually lifted up our investment in research | :43:12. | :43:13. | |
and development from 1.7% of GDP to 1.8%, which isn't good, | :43:14. | :43:20. | |
but when you look at the rest of the world, where it is getting | :43:21. | :43:26. | |
where it is getting closer to 3%, this was not enough for the kind | :43:27. | :43:30. | |
You want to just say anything about that and then we will move on? | :43:31. | :43:34. | |
Well, we are still dealing with the legacy of debt | :43:35. | :43:36. | |
that we inherited from the past Labour Government. | :43:37. | :43:38. | |
But what we are balancing within those constraints | :43:39. | :43:40. | |
is carefully targeting investments in the productive | :43:41. | :43:42. | |
Well, after months of debate and argument, we now know devolution | :43:43. | :43:47. | |
for Cambridgeshire and Peterborough will happen and happen soon. | :43:48. | :43:49. | |
Power and money will be transferred from Whitehall and there will be | :43:50. | :43:52. | |
There was talk of a deal involving Suffolk and Norfolk, | :43:53. | :44:00. | |
Cambridgeshire was tempted back to the table with the promise | :44:01. | :44:05. | |
The green light was given to go it alone this summer. | :44:06. | :44:11. | |
This week, the last council to say yes, Cambridge City, | :44:12. | :44:13. | |
We are part of a county geography which has always been a bit | :44:14. | :44:19. | |
more blue than other, and we have to stand up | :44:20. | :44:23. | |
for Cambridge particularly because Cambridge is the centre | :44:24. | :44:26. | |
of the growth, so the Government wanted to Cambridge in the deal, | :44:27. | :44:29. | |
and that is why we got such a good offer on housing. | :44:30. | :44:32. | |
We need now to work together because the geography | :44:33. | :44:36. | |
of Cambridgeshire means that all of our problems have to be | :44:37. | :44:39. | |
Certainly for the future, Cambridge cannot cope with the level | :44:40. | :44:43. | |
We actually want to work with others to share the benefits and to share | :44:44. | :44:50. | |
Well, the new authority will start work in February, | :44:51. | :44:56. | |
with the first mayor being elected in May. | :44:57. | :44:58. | |
In the meantime, the leader of Cambridgeshire County Council | :44:59. | :45:03. | |
will be interim chairman of the shadow combined authority. | :45:04. | :45:07. | |
He is councillor Steve Count and he's here now. | :45:08. | :45:09. | |
It is an interesting question and it is one I have been | :45:10. | :45:15. | |
I'm still actually thinking about that. | :45:16. | :45:18. | |
So that is quite close to a yes, isn't it? | :45:19. | :45:21. | |
We are still in the process but I think the important thing | :45:22. | :45:26. | |
here is that the people of Cambridgeshire and Peterborough | :45:27. | :45:29. | |
will ultimately get to decide, whoever that might be, | :45:30. | :45:31. | |
and I think that the task in front of that mayor is a complicated task, | :45:32. | :45:34. | |
but it will make a difference in peoples lives. | :45:35. | :45:39. | |
It has been quite a long process, before you got to this? | :45:40. | :45:42. | |
And it was difficult to get Cambridge city on board. | :45:43. | :45:45. | |
Is that a political argument or is that an economic argument? | :45:46. | :45:48. | |
Cambridge city wasn't the only authority that actually walked | :45:49. | :45:50. | |
In fact, I would say that virtually every authority at some time walked | :45:51. | :45:54. | |
away and said it was not good enough for them. | :45:55. | :45:57. | |
That whole journey has taken a number of years now, | :45:58. | :46:02. | |
two or three years, but where we are now | :46:03. | :46:05. | |
it is a cracking deal for all of us and that is why we have signed | :46:06. | :46:09. | |
Do you ever wished that you had gone in with Norfolk and Suffolk? | :46:10. | :46:13. | |
In retrospect, I am very glad of where we are now. | :46:14. | :46:15. | |
I think that fine tuning us and helping us to unite over | :46:16. | :46:18. | |
what was a common economic than refer many of us actually | :46:19. | :46:22. | |
But what we will do in the future is find ways to work | :46:23. | :46:26. | |
over our borders, because a lot of the investment decisions | :46:27. | :46:29. | |
Were you one of those who always accepted the need for an elected | :46:30. | :46:42. | |
mayor, or did you change your mind as you went along? | :46:43. | :46:45. | |
Where I have been, and I think a lot of people on this journey, | :46:46. | :46:48. | |
And, are you sure you want a mayor for this? | :46:49. | :46:52. | |
And it was always said to us, if you want a serious deal, | :46:53. | :46:56. | |
So we kept saying, what does a serious deal look like? | :46:57. | :47:00. | |
And eventually we got to a place where we are saying, | :47:01. | :47:03. | |
if that is what you are offering us, then we are happy to have a mayor. | :47:04. | :47:07. | |
But, remember, we did go out to the people with the consultation | :47:08. | :47:09. | |
and the people said, we have looked at the entire deal. | :47:10. | :47:12. | |
It involves all of these fantastic benefits, so, yes, | :47:13. | :47:15. | |
Now, he is saying, Ian Stewart, that actually he would | :47:16. | :47:19. | |
like to welcome in people from outside the boundary. | :47:20. | :47:21. | |
And that actually is where you come in with devolution, | :47:22. | :47:23. | |
because you would like this arm between Cambridge and Oxford | :47:24. | :47:26. | |
Absolutely, because if you look at that corridor, you're going | :47:27. | :47:29. | |
to have a lot of infrastructure investment on the new housing, | :47:30. | :47:32. | |
covering many different local authorities, and indeed regions - | :47:33. | :47:34. | |
Milton Keynes and Oxford being in the South East, | :47:35. | :47:36. | |
South Northamptonshire being in the East Midlands | :47:37. | :47:38. | |
and Bedfordshire and Cambridgeshire in the east of England. | :47:39. | :47:40. | |
I think we are going to have to construct some new authority. | :47:41. | :47:43. | |
I don't have the precise model in mind but some interlocking model | :47:44. | :47:46. | |
that will allow all of these authorities to be able to cooperate | :47:47. | :47:49. | |
on developing infrastructure that will be of mutual benefit. | :47:50. | :47:57. | |
So I very much look forward to working with the new combined area, | :47:58. | :48:00. | |
with all of the existing bodies, and taking forward the conclusions | :48:01. | :48:03. | |
I mean, I congratulate my colleagues on | :48:04. | :48:12. | |
Cambridge City Council and Lewis Herbert for extracting | :48:13. | :48:14. | |
?17 million for a much-needed council housing, | :48:15. | :48:17. | |
but you look at all of this and we are going to end up | :48:18. | :48:20. | |
with a situation where we are going to have a | :48:21. | :48:22. | |
directly elected mayor and we've got county council elections next year, | :48:23. | :48:25. | |
and an elected leader of the county council. | :48:26. | :48:27. | |
Frankly, Brussels looks like a model of simplicity and | :48:28. | :48:29. | |
So, do you not agree with devolution or do you not agree with this | :48:30. | :48:37. | |
Devolution in general, yes, than you a regional level, | :48:38. | :48:42. | |
and that is what Labour had and that is what Labour | :48:43. | :48:45. | |
will do in the future because this will all have to be completely torn | :48:46. | :48:48. | |
But the point is that the old regional boundaries have got nothing | :48:49. | :48:52. | |
to do with this Oxford-Cambridge corridor, which as I have said | :48:53. | :48:55. | |
that is why I am saying we need to construct a new | :48:56. | :48:59. | |
model that looks at the new economic area | :49:00. | :49:01. | |
that has nothing to do with the boundaries | :49:02. | :49:03. | |
But they are going to have to make it work. | :49:04. | :49:07. | |
What do you make of these two arguments? | :49:08. | :49:09. | |
I think it is quite sad that people are trying to pull apart what we | :49:10. | :49:12. | |
have already managed to construct over a long period of time. | :49:13. | :49:15. | |
This is what the local people want, what the | :49:16. | :49:17. | |
local politicians have built upon what the Government has agreed to. | :49:18. | :49:23. | |
Here is a local politician who has not agree with it. | :49:24. | :49:27. | |
No, he has not, and there are six MPs my area | :49:28. | :49:29. | |
as Cambridgeshire County Council leader, not just one. | :49:30. | :49:31. | |
Not just one way that we are going to accommodate all of them and work | :49:32. | :49:35. | |
But take the talk about the Milton Keynes, Oxford and that's... | :49:36. | :49:39. | |
We have already formed, not myself but I am on it, | :49:40. | :49:41. | |
the Economic Heartland Alliance, which is actually working together | :49:42. | :49:43. | |
very well and that will be one of the mechanisms that we see how | :49:44. | :49:47. | |
we can work together even better in the future. | :49:48. | :49:49. | |
He is saying that the MPs, you are alone in that, | :49:50. | :49:54. | |
You should ask most of the other MPs who are of the Conservative | :49:55. | :49:58. | |
persuasion, who are not on the Government payroll - | :49:59. | :50:00. | |
they are pretty unhappy about this too. | :50:01. | :50:02. | |
But Cambridge doesn't just look to the east, | :50:03. | :50:04. | |
Cambridge looks to London as well, and that is the point. | :50:05. | :50:06. | |
But he is saying to look to the west. | :50:07. | :50:08. | |
East-west, but it also looks north-south. | :50:09. | :50:11. | |
The links with London are crucial as well. | :50:12. | :50:14. | |
So, basically, I don't think this model works at all. | :50:15. | :50:16. | |
I think you need to pay attention to what is actually going on | :50:17. | :50:22. | |
We have the M11, the London Stansted Cambridge corridor... | :50:23. | :50:26. | |
If we look at the east we have the Cambridge to | :50:27. | :50:29. | |
Norwich A11 Tech corridor, and then we look out to the west, | :50:30. | :50:33. | |
Well, you see, this is exactly the work that the infrastructure | :50:34. | :50:42. | |
It is actually headed by someone from your | :50:43. | :50:46. | |
They are looking at how we can put together the | :50:47. | :50:51. | |
different bits of governance across this corridor | :50:52. | :50:53. | |
It will work in conjunction with these new bodies. | :50:54. | :50:59. | |
It goes on causing argument and debate. | :51:00. | :51:01. | |
Well, any new mayor will have significant new powers and more | :51:02. | :51:07. | |
money to deal with things like transport, including buses. | :51:08. | :51:09. | |
Since 2010, 45% of bus subsidies in this region have been cut. | :51:10. | :51:16. | |
Add those cuts up and it comes to ?13 million. | :51:17. | :51:20. | |
Luton and Southend have cut subsidies completely. | :51:21. | :51:21. | |
And Bedford, Milton Keynes and Northamptonshire have | :51:22. | :51:24. | |
The aim of the Bus Services Bill, which is going through Parliament | :51:25. | :51:35. | |
at the moment, is to improve services for things | :51:36. | :51:37. | |
But some of the new powers will only be available to elected mayors. | :51:38. | :51:41. | |
At the moment, we only have one of those. | :51:42. | :51:43. | |
It is a sight villages in Murrow see only once a week, | :51:44. | :51:52. | |
the number 390 bus coming to take them for their weekly shop. | :51:53. | :51:56. | |
It runs between Wisbech and Peterborough, | :51:57. | :52:00. | |
This service does not pay for itself, because so many | :52:01. | :52:05. | |
The council subsidises the route, but with increasingly tight budgets, | :52:06. | :52:10. | |
Cambridgeshire County Council has considered cutting the funding. | :52:11. | :52:15. | |
I do not drive since my husband died. | :52:16. | :52:17. | |
I do not drive and the bus is a lifeline for me. | :52:18. | :52:22. | |
It is the only bus to Peterborough from where we live in Murrow. | :52:23. | :52:25. | |
And I do my food shopping, so I just need the bus | :52:26. | :52:32. | |
There are people in the village who never go anywhere, really. | :52:33. | :52:37. | |
And OK, it is only Peterborough, but it is a larger city. | :52:38. | :52:41. | |
You have got the cathedral, and you have got a mixture of shops, | :52:42. | :52:44. | |
you have got people from all over the world, and it provides | :52:45. | :52:48. | |
This service may be safe for now, but with increasingly tight budgets, | :52:49. | :52:58. | |
there is no doubt that all of our councils will consider | :52:59. | :53:00. | |
making more cuts to bus services in the future. | :53:01. | :53:03. | |
That is bad news for the rural communities that rely on them. | :53:04. | :53:06. | |
Bus travel remains the most popular form of public transport, | :53:07. | :53:10. | |
so could the Bus Services Bill provide an opportunity for a rethink | :53:11. | :53:13. | |
about how they are operated and paid for? | :53:14. | :53:16. | |
The bill aims to increase passenger numbers and improve services | :53:17. | :53:19. | |
through measures like allowing councils to partner with local bus | :53:20. | :53:22. | |
operators and have more involvement over routes, | :53:23. | :53:25. | |
integrated ticketing like Oyster cards, which would make one ticket | :53:26. | :53:28. | |
and areas with an elected mayor will get powers to bring in bus | :53:29. | :53:36. | |
franchising and invite operators to bid for routes. | :53:37. | :53:42. | |
But that rules out areas that do not have the devolution. | :53:43. | :53:45. | |
Some people might think, yeah, actually, we want an elected mayor, | :53:46. | :53:54. | |
but people in other areas might think, no, we don't really want this | :53:55. | :53:57. | |
extra layer of Government, and we think that no matter | :53:58. | :53:59. | |
whether or not you have an elected mayor you should be able | :54:00. | :54:02. | |
to depend on a regular, frequent and affordable bus service. | :54:03. | :54:05. | |
Suffolk County Council has cut its spending | :54:06. | :54:07. | |
But they are hoping that this bill will help them improve bus services | :54:08. | :54:13. | |
without having to pay out more money. | :54:14. | :54:14. | |
The bus bill does give you that opportunity you have more data | :54:15. | :54:20. | |
available to the local operators, so we can have through ticketing. | :54:21. | :54:24. | |
We can actually have more visibility of life timescales on the buses, | :54:25. | :54:31. | |
and actually then you actually can actually start placing orders | :54:32. | :54:34. | |
on these sort of things, and book a ticket and actually | :54:35. | :54:36. | |
place a ticket and use this on the vehicle. | :54:37. | :54:40. | |
Arriving back home laden with shopping bags, these passengers | :54:41. | :54:44. | |
have a rather more simple hope for the bill - that the bus that has | :54:45. | :54:48. | |
become their lifeline will not disappear. | :54:49. | :54:52. | |
Daniel Zeichner, you have become quite a bus fan over | :54:53. | :54:54. | |
If you are in a rural area and you rely on the bus, | :54:55. | :55:02. | |
and the only people using it have a bus pass, it doesn't pay. | :55:03. | :55:05. | |
Basically, when the buses were privatised by the Conservatives | :55:06. | :55:10. | |
30 years ago, London was left different and it was regulated. | :55:11. | :55:14. | |
And the London bus system has succeeded since then. | :55:15. | :55:16. | |
But the London system succeeds because it has got lots of people | :55:17. | :55:21. | |
using it because it is very busy and it is very difficult | :55:22. | :55:24. | |
But also it allows the authorities to cross-subsidise. | :55:25. | :55:29. | |
In the areas on the outer edges of London, It is exactly | :55:30. | :55:32. | |
That is because most of our region has cities like Cambridge | :55:33. | :55:36. | |
So it will put all these things right? | :55:37. | :55:40. | |
Well, it will not unfortunately because the Government does not | :55:41. | :55:42. | |
want to make those powers available to any area that does not | :55:43. | :55:46. | |
So I have been talking to councillors in Hertfordshire | :55:47. | :55:49. | |
and Essex who aren't really disappointed that there will not be | :55:50. | :55:51. | |
Now, the bill started in the House of Lords. | :55:52. | :55:59. | |
Labour has introduced positive amendments. | :56:00. | :56:00. | |
Now, the bill, when it comes to the Commons in a few weeks' time, | :56:01. | :56:03. | |
if it is passed as it is now than we will have those powers | :56:04. | :56:06. | |
but I fear that the Government will try another overturn those changes. | :56:07. | :56:10. | |
This elected mayor thing causes problems wherever | :56:11. | :56:11. | |
Why is the Government so wedded to the elected mayors? | :56:12. | :56:15. | |
Personally, I am more flexible on what the Government's arrangement | :56:16. | :56:17. | |
I think the important thing to realise with this buses bill, | :56:18. | :56:23. | |
it gives lots of flex abilities, because different parts | :56:24. | :56:26. | |
of the country need different structures. | :56:27. | :56:30. | |
Every part of the country, if they have got rural areas | :56:31. | :56:34. | |
they need buses for people who do not... | :56:35. | :56:36. | |
Granted, but the structure that works in a cathedral city | :56:37. | :56:38. | |
like Cambridge or Oxford is different to the model that works | :56:39. | :56:41. | |
in my area like Milton Keynes, which is a much more complex | :56:42. | :56:44. | |
system, which is different to what works in London. | :56:45. | :56:52. | |
And the bill which I think as a whole commands quite a wide | :56:53. | :56:55. | |
cross-party support is designed to give that flexibility. | :56:56. | :56:57. | |
So, would you give those powers to local authorities, | :56:58. | :56:59. | |
Think it is something I'm personally happy to look at. | :57:00. | :57:08. | |
I sit on the transport select committee, and we just | :57:09. | :57:11. | |
I think this will be an evolutionary process. | :57:12. | :57:14. | |
As different models of devolution get set up around the country, | :57:15. | :57:17. | |
I think this, through secondary legislation, this flexibility | :57:18. | :57:19. | |
But there will be a lot of people who, while all of this is going on, | :57:20. | :57:28. | |
will worry that they will not have a bus service. | :57:29. | :57:30. | |
Well, what we want to see is to give each local area at the flexibility | :57:31. | :57:34. | |
What we have also got to bear in mind going forward is that | :57:35. | :57:40. | |
new technology will offer different solutions to this. | :57:41. | :57:42. | |
On transport policy, there actually is a lot of good | :57:43. | :57:51. | |
Well, I am very encouraged by what Ian is saying, and hoping | :57:52. | :57:59. | |
that any non-confrontational way, we might be able to come | :58:00. | :58:02. | |
to an agreement in the Commons on this, which would be | :58:03. | :58:05. | |
But one thing I would finish by saying is that part | :58:06. | :58:10. | |
of the problem is actually the amount of money that has been | :58:11. | :58:14. | |
That is what has really cut the subsidy in rural areas. | :58:15. | :58:18. | |
Our round-up of the political week now in 60 seconds | :58:19. | :58:22. | |
The Prime Minister came to Cambridge to announce research and | :58:23. | :58:34. | |
development investment to ensure that the country remains at the | :58:35. | :58:37. | |
cutting edge of scientific discovery. | :58:38. | :58:41. | |
What I've seen here at Cambridge is this | :58:42. | :58:52. | |
excellent example of the knowledge base of the university coming | :58:53. | :58:55. | |
Police and Crime Commissioners have warned that they will be asking for | :58:56. | :59:00. | |
more money from council tax payers next year. | :59:01. | :59:02. | |
They claimed they need extra cash to protect front line | :59:03. | :59:04. | |
It is for them to tell me what they want from the police service. | :59:05. | :59:08. | |
It is my responsibility to tell them the | :59:09. | :59:10. | |
Major changes into health services have been published. | :59:11. | :59:13. | |
Peterborough and pinching the hospitals are to merge. | :59:14. | :59:15. | |
And in Essex, three hospitals in Basildon, Chelmsford and Southend | :59:16. | :59:17. | |
could be completely reorganised, including accident and emergency | :59:18. | :59:20. | |
And in the wake of the Trump victory, the MP for Chelmsford | :59:21. | :59:23. | |
The best person to fill the vacancy for the ambassador to the United | :59:24. | :59:34. | |
Kingdom next year would be Hillary Rodham Clinton. | :59:35. | :59:38. | |
Though I suspect the last thing she'd want to do is be associated | :59:39. | :59:45. | |
I saw him with a big rosette for her. | :59:46. | :59:55. | |
Well, Simon wears a Hillary Clinton watch. | :59:56. | :00:00. | |
What I wonder is whether Hillary Clinton wears a Simon Burns watch. | :00:01. | :00:04. | |
Just one comment from both of you on the Trump thing. | :00:05. | :00:07. | |
The President-elect Donald Trump, sorry. | :00:08. | :00:08. | |
For me, what worries me most is America becoming more | :00:09. | :00:13. | |
protectionist at a time that we need to be remaking the case | :00:14. | :00:16. | |
So I hope that is going to be one item that is top of the agenda. | :00:17. | :00:21. | |
We agree on some things but I think it is a reflection | :00:22. | :00:27. | |
of a very uncertain world that we are in the moment, | :00:28. | :00:30. | |
and I would urge the Government to think again about Brexit | :00:31. | :00:33. | |
such a dangerous situation from the United States. | :00:34. | :00:41. | |
Thank you, both of you, for being with us today. | :00:42. | :00:46. | |
You can keep in touch via our website. | :00:47. | :00:50. | |
We are back at the same time next week, | :00:51. | :00:52. | |
but, for now, from all of us, back to Andrew in the studio. | :00:53. | :00:55. | |
article 15 noticed this served. We have got to make sure London is | :00:56. | :01:00. | |
open. Thank you. Andrew, back to you. | :01:01. | :01:06. | |
Is Theresa May serious about curbing executive pay? | :01:07. | :01:08. | |
Who will be crowned Nigel Farage's successor as Ukip leader? | :01:09. | :01:11. | |
And can the Lib Dems pull off a by-election upset in Richmond? | :01:12. | :01:17. | |
So,,, on pay talk about the executive of what executives get | :01:18. | :01:41. | |
compared to the average worker in the company, giving shareholders | :01:42. | :01:43. | |
real power to vote down pay rises if they don't like them, which is | :01:44. | :01:48. | |
pretty much what Ed Miliband proposed in the general election in | :01:49. | :01:57. | |
2015. Is she serious about this? She is very serious, and the Tory party | :01:58. | :02:01. | |
probably does owe Ed Miliband an apology for trashing his ideas and | :02:02. | :02:04. | |
2015 and then putting them all up for votes in November 20 16. She is | :02:05. | :02:08. | |
very serious, and this all comes back to her desperate fear that | :02:09. | :02:11. | |
unless capitalism reforms itself and becomes more acceptable to the just | :02:12. | :02:18. | |
about managing or even 78% of the country who are not earning vast | :02:19. | :02:21. | |
wealth at anywhere near the figures you see in the City, serious things | :02:22. | :02:26. | |
will happen and the political sense of trust will implode. She has | :02:27. | :02:31. | |
already been bartered down by her own Cabinet on this. She wanted to | :02:32. | :02:35. | |
go further and make workers on the board mandatory. They have managed | :02:36. | :02:42. | |
to stop that. What will her fallback position be on workers on the board | :02:43. | :02:46. | |
if she is not able to get it into some claw? We would like to have | :02:47. | :02:52. | |
workers on the board, but whatever they do on the board there will have | :02:53. | :02:57. | |
no voting powers on the board. When you look at what was leaked out over | :02:58. | :03:02. | |
the weekend, that we should know the ratio of the top to the average and | :03:03. | :03:06. | |
that shareholders who own the company should determine, in the | :03:07. | :03:11. | |
end, the highest-paid salaries, you kind of think, what could the | :03:12. | :03:17. | |
possible objection be to any of that? Two things. One, I agree with | :03:18. | :03:23. | |
Tom that she is deadly serious about this agenda and it comes under the | :03:24. | :03:29. | |
banner, that sentence in the party conference speech about "It's time | :03:30. | :03:32. | |
to focus on the good that government can do". She is by instinct more of | :03:33. | :03:37. | |
an interventionist than Cameron and Osborne. But she is incredibly | :03:38. | :03:41. | |
cautious, whether it is through the internal constraints of opposition | :03:42. | :03:45. | |
within Cabinet, or her own small C Conservative caution in implementing | :03:46. | :03:52. | |
this stuff. Part of the problem is the practicalities. George Osborne | :03:53. | :03:55. | |
commission will Hutton to do a report which came out with similar | :03:56. | :03:59. | |
proposals, which were never implemented. It is quite hard to | :04:00. | :04:04. | |
enforce. It will antagonise business leaders when she's to woo them again | :04:05. | :04:09. | |
in this Brexit furore. So there are problems with it. And judging by | :04:10. | :04:13. | |
what has happened so far, my guess is that the aim will be genuinely | :04:14. | :04:18. | |
bold and interesting, and the implementation incredibly cautious. | :04:19. | :04:21. | |
Does it matter if she annoys some business leaders? Isn't that part of | :04:22. | :04:28. | |
her brand? Will there be problems on the Tory backbenches with it? I | :04:29. | :04:32. | |
think there will be and I think it does matter at this sensitive time | :04:33. | :04:35. | |
for when we are positioning ourselves as a country and whether | :04:36. | :04:40. | |
we are going to brand ourselves as a great city of business, implementing | :04:41. | :04:43. | |
quite interventionist policies. Any suggestion that the government can | :04:44. | :04:47. | |
control how much the top earners get, I think would be received in a | :04:48. | :04:51. | |
hostile way. What would be wrong with the shareholders, who own the | :04:52. | :04:54. | |
company, determining the pay of the higher hands, the executives? | :04:55. | :04:59. | |
Morally, you can absolutely make that argument but to business | :05:00. | :05:03. | |
leaders, they will not like it. Ultimately, this will not come down | :05:04. | :05:08. | |
to more than a row of beans. There was a huge debate about whether | :05:09. | :05:11. | |
there should be quotas of women on boards. In the end, that never | :05:12. | :05:17. | |
happened. All we get is figures. But quotas of women, for which there is | :05:18. | :05:22. | |
a case and a case against too, that was a government mandate. This is | :05:23. | :05:27. | |
not, this is simply empowering shareholders who own the company to | :05:28. | :05:29. | |
determine the pay of the people they hire. There is a strong moral | :05:30. | :05:38. | |
argument for it. Strong economic argument. But the Tory backbenchers | :05:39. | :05:44. | |
will not like this. The downside is that this is a world where companies | :05:45. | :05:47. | |
are thinking about upping sticks to Europe. No, they say they are | :05:48. | :05:51. | |
thinking of that. Not one has done it yet. Others have made massive | :05:52. | :05:58. | |
investments in this country. But is it not an incentive for those making | :05:59. | :06:04. | |
these threats to actually do it? In Europe, bankers' pay is now mandated | :06:05. | :06:10. | |
by Brussels. It is a vivid way of showing you are addressing the issue | :06:11. | :06:15. | |
of inequality. I think she will go with it, but let's move on to Ukip. | :06:16. | :06:23. | |
I think we will get the result tomorrow. There are the top three | :06:24. | :06:27. | |
candidates. Paul Nuttall, Suzanne Evans and on my right, John Reid | :06:28. | :06:33. | |
Evans. One of them will be the next leader. Who is going to win? It is | :06:34. | :06:40. | |
widely predicted to be Paul Nuttall and is probably the outcome that the | :06:41. | :06:43. | |
Labour Party fears most. Paul Nuttall is a very effective | :06:44. | :06:47. | |
communicator. He is not a household name, far from it, but people will | :06:48. | :06:53. | |
begin to learn more about him and find that he is actually quite a | :06:54. | :06:57. | |
strong leader. Can people Ukip together again after this shambolic | :06:58. | :07:03. | |
period since the referendum? If anyone can, he can. And his brand of | :07:04. | :07:10. | |
working collar, Northern Ukip is the thing that will work for them. Do | :07:11. | :07:16. | |
you think he is the favourite? It would be amazing if he doesn't win. | :07:17. | :07:19. | |
His greatest problem will be getting Nigel Farage off his back. He is | :07:20. | :07:24. | |
going on a speaking tour of North America. A long speaking tour. Ukip | :07:25. | :07:32. | |
won this EU referendum. They had the chance to hoover up these | :07:33. | :07:35. | |
discontented Labour voters in the north, and all he has done is | :07:36. | :07:40. | |
associated with Ukip with Farage. But Nigel Farage is fed up of Ukip | :07:41. | :07:43. | |
and will be glad to be hands of it. The bigger problem is money. If it | :07:44. | :07:49. | |
is Paul Nuttall, and we don't know the results yet, but he is the | :07:50. | :07:55. | |
favourite, if it is him, I would suggest that that is the result | :07:56. | :07:58. | |
Labour is frightened of most. To be honest, I think they are frightened | :07:59. | :08:03. | |
of Ukip whatever the result. Possibly with good cause. The reason | :08:04. | :08:08. | |
I qualify that is that what you call a shambles over the summer has been | :08:09. | :08:12. | |
something that goes beyond Monty Python in its absurdity and madness. | :08:13. | :08:18. | |
That calls into question whether it can function as a political party | :08:19. | :08:24. | |
when you have what has gone on. The number of leaders itself has been an | :08:25. | :08:29. | |
act of madness. In a context which should be fantastic for them. They | :08:30. | :08:35. | |
have won a referendum. There is a debate about what form Brexit should | :08:36. | :08:39. | |
take, it is a dream for them, and they have gone bonkers. If he can | :08:40. | :08:43. | |
turn it around, I agree that he is a powerful media communicator, and | :08:44. | :08:46. | |
then it is a threat to Labour. But he has got to show that first. | :08:47. | :08:52. | |
Indeed. The by-election in Richmond in south-west London, called by Zac | :08:53. | :08:57. | |
Goldsmith over Heathrow. Has it turned out to be a by-election about | :08:58. | :09:01. | |
Heathrow, or has it turned into a by-election, which is what the Lib | :09:02. | :09:06. | |
Dems wanted, about Brexit? We will know on Thursday. If the Lib Dems | :09:07. | :09:10. | |
win, they will turn it into an EU referendum. It seems incredibly | :09:11. | :09:13. | |
close now. The Lib Dems are swamping Richmond. They had 1000 activists | :09:14. | :09:19. | |
there yesterday. That is getting on for 100th of the population of the | :09:20. | :09:23. | |
place! If the Lib Dems don't manage to win on Thursday and don't manage | :09:24. | :09:27. | |
to turn it into an EU referendum despite all their efforts, it will | :09:28. | :09:30. | |
probably be a disaster for the party. What do you hear, Isabel? I | :09:31. | :09:39. | |
hear that the Lib Dems have absolutely swamped the constituency, | :09:40. | :09:43. | |
but this may backfire. I saw a bit of this myself, living in Witney, | :09:44. | :09:49. | |
when the Lib Dems also swamped and people began to get fed up of their | :09:50. | :09:55. | |
aggressive tactics. I understand that Zac Goldsmith is cautiously | :09:56. | :09:58. | |
optimistic that he will pull this one off. Quick stab at the result? I | :09:59. | :10:07. | |
don't know. But we are entering a period when by-elections are | :10:08. | :10:12. | |
acquiring significant again. If the Lib Dems were to make a game, it | :10:13. | :10:15. | |
would breathe life into that near moribund party like nothing else. | :10:16. | :10:22. | |
Similarly, other by-elections in this shapeless political world we | :10:23. | :10:27. | |
are in are going to become significant. We don't know if we are | :10:28. | :10:30. | |
covering it live on Thursday night yet because we have to find at the | :10:31. | :10:32. | |
time they are going to declare. Richmond are quite late in | :10:33. | :10:39. | |
declaring, but if it is in the early hours, that is fine. If it is on | :10:40. | :10:45. | |
breakfast television, they be not. I want to show you this. Michael Gove | :10:46. | :10:48. | |
was on the Andrew Marr Show this morning. In the now notorious | :10:49. | :10:54. | |
comment that I made, I was actually cut off in midstream, as politicians | :10:55. | :10:57. | |
often. The point I made was not that all experts are that is nonsense. | :10:58. | :11:03. | |
Expert engineers, doctors and physicists are not wrong. But there | :11:04. | :11:10. | |
is a subclass of experts, particularly social scientists, who | :11:11. | :11:13. | |
have to reflect on some of the mistakes they have made. And the | :11:14. | :11:18. | |
recession, which was predicted that we would have if we voted to leave, | :11:19. | :11:22. | |
has gone like a puff of smoke. So economic experts, he talks about. | :11:23. | :11:28. | |
The Chancellor has based all of his forward predictions in this Autumn | :11:29. | :11:31. | |
Statement on the economic expert forecasters. The Office for Budget | :11:32. | :11:39. | |
Responsibility has said it is 50-50, which is the toss of a coin. But | :11:40. | :11:44. | |
what was he supposed to do? You would ideally have to have a Budget | :11:45. | :11:49. | |
that had several sets of scenarios, and that is impossible. Crystal ball | :11:50. | :11:57. | |
territory. But you do wonder if governments are right to do so much | :11:58. | :12:01. | |
of their fiscal projections on the basis of forecasts which turn out to | :12:02. | :12:06. | |
be wrong. They have nothing else to go on. The Treasury forecast is to | :12:07. | :12:10. | |
be wrong. No doubt the OBR forecast will prove not to be exact. As you | :12:11. | :12:15. | |
say, they admitted that they are navigating through fog at the | :12:16. | :12:19. | |
moment. But he also added that it was fog caused by Brexit. So Brexit, | :12:20. | :12:23. | |
even if you accept that these forecasts might be wrong, is causing | :12:24. | :12:30. | |
such a level of uncertainty. He put the figure at 60 billion. That could | :12:31. | :12:36. | |
come to haunt him. He hasn't got a clue. He admitted it. He said, | :12:37. | :12:44. | |
Parliament mandates me to come up with something, so I am going to | :12:45. | :12:47. | |
give you a number. But I wouldn't trust it if I were you, he basically | :12:48. | :12:54. | |
said. I agree with you. The man who borrowed 122 billion more off the | :12:55. | :12:56. | |
back of a coin toss was Philip Hammond. It begs the question, what | :12:57. | :13:00. | |
does that say about the confidence Philip Hammond has in his own | :13:01. | :13:03. | |
government's renegotiation? Not a huge amount. I agree. Philip Hammond | :13:04. | :13:11. | |
quoted the OBR figures. He basically said, this is uncertain and it looks | :13:12. | :13:15. | |
bad, and on we go with it. It is a very interesting situation, he said. | :13:16. | :13:21. | |
He was for Remain and he works in a department which regards it as a | :13:22. | :13:25. | |
disaster, whatever everyone else thinks. I have just been told we are | :13:26. | :13:32. | |
covering the by-election. We are part of the constitution. | :13:33. | :13:33. | |
Jo Coburn will have more Daily Politics tomorrow | :13:34. | :13:35. | |
And I'll be back here on BBC One next Sunday at 11. | :13:36. | :13:39. | |
Remember - if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics. | :13:40. | :14:13. | |
to signify the Africans who were here. | :14:14. | :14:17. | |
The story of Henry VIII and his six wives | :14:18. | :14:44. |