12/05/2013 Sunday Politics Scotland

Politics. It's the big Euro referendum vote

next week. No, not for us. For MPs. So how will Euro-sceptics in the

Cabinet vote? We'll ask Defence Secretary Philip Hammond. Will Mr

Hammond's plan to make up for cuts in regular troop numbers by doubling

the number of reserves work? And if it doesn't, what then? The Defence

Secretary is our Sunday Interview. It's the big idea the government

thinks will be a game changer for the economy: so is help to buy a

Thatcherite master stroke or a recipe for sky high house prices?

Labour and the Tories go head to head. And on Sunday Politics

Scotland: Will the lights go out? The outgoing chairman of leading

power company SSE tells us about the uncertain future in the world of

Apology for the loss of subtitles for 1804 seconds

built. You didn't build enough houses when you were in power.

What's the Tories have managed to achieve is the lowest record in

peacetime years since the 1920s so they really have nothing to boast

about. People who are out there and went on to the housing ladder are

desperately looking to get into a housing association. They want to

see housing Bill and it is interesting that the Treasury Select

Committee report very clearly states that that should be the focus of

looking at the supply as well as the demand. There are real concerns that

have to be addressed. Are you going to vote for this EU referendum and

maintenance to the Queens speech? Yes I am. Thank you very much.

Welcome to Sunday Politics Scotland. Coming up on the programme: Sparks

fly in the energy debate - as Ian Marchant's leadership of SSE draws

to a close - he says policy-makers have created an uncertain future.

Who would start building a gas pump today on the basis of the market

recovering and the government to get its policy right. They are going to

see, let's wait until one of those has happened. And I'll be looking

ahead to the by-election. You use it, we use it - governments

stand or fall depending on the supply of it. The cost - and use of

- energy is always at the centre of political debate. In a

straight-talking interview, the outgoing chairman of SSE has been

speaking to us about his predictions for rising costs, increasing

conflict with policy makers about investment and the eventual need for

new nuclear power stations. Edinburgh by night. Beautifully

illuminated, unlike large parts of the industry which power that. And

all these lights cost. The average household Bill has gone up 47% since

2008. According to the outgoing chairman of SSE, that is not going

to change any time soon. The most likely scenario is the unit price of

energy will continue to go up. But it is the unit price. You control

the other bit of the equation, the unit you use. I think the real price

of smart metering is that it will tell you what you are using and you

can then take control and make reasonable decisions about how much

energy you are using. I think that will actually restore some trust in

the industry. Smart metering may create some transparency but its

introduction has just been postponed for one year. In he believes that

politicians need to be more honest. He says the cost of successive

governments policies to make the UK greener and more energy-efficient

have been passed straight to the industry. And therefore on to us,

the consumers. The Generation Game as lucrative. SSE returned 1.3

billion and profits last year. But most of the country 's power

stations are nearing the end of their working life. Replacing them

is going to prove costly. government has said that they will

introduce new policy. But they haven't actually introduced new

policy and to quote Donald Rumsfeld, they have created a known

unknown. They have said that they will intervene but you have to

wait. So what do you do? You wait. Who would build a gas plant and

start building a gas plant today on the basis of the market will recover

and the government will get its policy right? They are going to

say, let's wait until at least one of those has happened. In the

meantime, he says that other solutions are needed. More

investment in demand management technology and greater use of

renewables like hydropower. already generates 10% of Scotland's

energy needs and this month marks its 70th anniversary. Just this

week, SSE unveiled plans for a �30 million scheme in Ross shire. But

that doesn't mean there is no place for nuclear and the long-term. My

objections to nuclear at the moment are that it is the wrong technology

at the wrong place for the wrong company but we should wait. We can

afford as a country to wait. There is a lot of interesting technology

in nuclear going on. And in the US where they are looking at generation

for technology and smaller reactors. They are easier and quicker to

build. The UK should wait. He admits that SSE let its customers down. He

has apologised and is adamant that the company has made changes and is

now in much better shape. But can the same be said for the rest of the

industry? Energy's global, policy's reserved

to Westminster and planning is an issue for Holyrood. So how does the

industry and politicians address the various issues? I'm joined here in

the studio by the Scottish Government's Energy Minister Fergus

Ewing and by Labour's Shadow Energy Minister, Tom Greatrex. The cost of

bills, that is the most important thing for people. How much power do

you have in the most important thing for people. How much power do you

have any Scottish Government to get them down? We don't have the

influence we would like to have but industry

industry and with the UK government to bring forward the system of rules

that is going to be necessary to meet the electricity needs for the

future. Ian Marchant is quite right to say that at the moment, there are

no rules to stop therefore, there is an investment hiatus. But we want to

move swiftly on to concluding a camcorder with the UK government

about Scotland's role and we do have power to set rocks at the moment.

Your clips showed a new hydro scheme in Ross shire worth 30 million. SSE

said that one of the reasons for that is obligation certificates. In

England, they have just the incentive for hydro. We want to see

more idle but we want to see a variety of electricity is. When it

comes to generation, what is required as variety and variety

alone. Therefore, we will require a continuation of nuclear for some

time. We are expanding our renewables and that includes onshore

wind, hydro and pump storage as well. I have been very pleased that

in the Scottish Parliament, we can debate these matters on the basis of

rationality and with a fair degree of consensus across the parties.

Sadly, the process is taking far too long to sort out the MR and get the

straight prices. The risk is that of Jim has identified that the lights

will go out and England because the spare capacity as 4% or less and

that could happen by 2015. We do really require to make progress as

quickly as possible. We are talking about the lights going out and

rising energy bills. How much labour to blame after 13 years in power?

Alistair Buchanan has been very critical of Labour's policy and

power calling it a car crash. we have is a situation where we have

a number of power stations that are due to go off-line in the near

future and we have a need to replace that generation capacity. The thing

that's happened in the retail market is that over a period of time, we

have had consolidation of companies. The problem has been that what has

happened as the generates the power and then sell it on to the consumers

and businesses across Britain and in Scotland. It is very hard to see

exactly where the profit is being made. There is a lack of trust

because people see the high profit figures and we also see their bills

going up to stop we need to have a reform of the regional part of it

which isn't covered in the electricity legislation. We need to

have transparency because you won't have the trust that Ian Marchant was

talking about until there is real transparency in that market.

current government have only been in for three years. We should almost be

reaping the fruits of a coherent energy policy just note that we are

not. Energy is any real mess at the moment isn't it? In that three

years, the average dual fuel Bill has gone up by more than �300. We

have seen a reduction in confidence and investment and renewable

technology and another technologies over that period of time. We have

seen a situation where the government is making an off-the-cuff

remark and have got themselves into even more of a mess. That is

contributing to the delay. Ian Marchant was absolutely right when

he was talking about gas power stations and that people are not

investing because they are waiting to see the way the capacity market

will work. That is not in any be equal he did energy policy. Looking

at the burden of social tariffs on top of the actual costs of energy,

perhaps you as a government are to blame as well because people have to

pay for the renewable energy sector. People are really feeling

that pressure at the moment and having to pay for a lot of

controversial renewables projects? The UK government's figures show

that if there were not the deployment of renewables, those

would be much higher. They say that by 2020, if they were not pushed

renewables, the average Bill would be �166 higher. Bills have been high

but an analysis of this shows that the reason for that is an increase

in gas prices vary substantially. There has been a lack of

consideration to energy policy over decades. The great hasn't had major

investment since the 60s. Many of the problems about constraint

payment arrives because of that lack of investment. The good news is that

because of our success in Scotland, success which independent people

such as the CEO of the National Grid have said and the clarity of our

purpose and incentivising union durables -- incentivising renewables

not we have confidence more amongst investors in Scotland. When you look

get too closely drawn into that because of legal reasons. I am the

Minister that took the planning decision there but in general, the

investment in renewables is strong in Scotland. As has been said by Ian

Marchant and also by ScottishPower, there is an investment hiatus at the

moment and therefore, we are very keen that that hiatus should come to

an end by an agreement and publication of the draft straight

prices in the next month or so. Scotland has these worlds leading

climate change targets. You must find that a very laudable thing? The

best we're trying to achieve those targets is by improving and

increasing the image of renewable generation. The best and most

efficient cost-effective and most sensible way of doing it is what

happens now in that it is paid by consumers across the whole of

Britain. The magnitude would be completely different. I think the

system as it is at the moment encourages that and should be

encouraging at father. The decisions and some of the hiatus in decisions

as that there are whole of injuries -- incidents. That is another factor

alongside the weight we still have from some of the detail of the

marked presence. They are all causing a situation where people are

stopping and pausing. The cost will increase if we end up in a situation

where we are even more in hock to the volatile nature of gas prices.

The best way of getting security of supply into the renewables part of

that is by getting on with that development. Tom has also pointed

out the development of wind power, we're not seeing enough generation

of this? We believe there is massive potential for offshore wind. That

could create over 20,000 jobs. As it is at the moment, renewable energy

in Scotland sustains 11,000 jobs and onshore wind has been a stepping

stone. Without it, they would be no rationale for a 7000 billion pound

investment. Without that, there cannot be offshore wind. It is all

part of the jigsaw and our clear support and the Scottish Government

for renewables along with conventional back-up, has been well

received by investors. England does need Scotland's energy and

therefore, following independence, we believe the should continue to be

a integrated energy market and Scotland will require demand from

the consumers south of the border. England needs Scotland's energy

otherwise the lights go out. In a separate Scotland, it is an

assertion based on an assumption based on a hope that that is what

would happen. In reality, if England and the rest of the UK required

energy, they would then make a commercial decision and it is what

about what is available. That isn't necessary Sara Lee going to be from

Scotland. There wouldn't be a residual obligation from the rest of

the UK to Scotland. Very interesting debate. Thank you.

It's being described as a key litmus test in the independence debate.

Voters in Aberdeen Donside will vote on the 20th of June to elect a

successor to the late Brian Adam - the SNP MSP who died last month. Mr

Adam managed a majority of seven thousand at the last election. If

Labour did claim the seat - it would deprive the SNP of their majority at

Holyrood. Niall O'Gallacher has been looking at the numbers.

I am very sad to have to inform the chamber of the passing of dear

friend Brian Adam this morning. Parliament paid its respects after

the death of the SNP member for Aberdeen Donside. A popular figure

at Holyrood, Brian Adam's passing drew tributes from across the

chamber. But as he would have understood, politics must go on.

This week the 20th of June was meant as the day Mr Adam successor would

be chosen. At the last election SNP won 69 of their 129 seats in the

chamber behind me. They lost one to the cheer and after suspensions and

affections, they are now at 65. That is a majority of just one. They

would have 65 seats in the, that is a minority of MSP's.

Nationalists are calling the tune and Aberdeen these days. Brian Adam

that more than half the day -- half the votes leading his party majority

of over 7000. Councillor Willie Young has been tasked with

persuading voters to back Labour. Oh well Labour do will be seen as the

first barometer of how well Johann Lamont is performing and there are

signs that she is chipping away at the first Minister. She is doing

really rather well. Her popularity as increasing will stop all these

polls narrow win? This is a chance to find out. The prospective SNP

candidate didn't expect to win in 2011 and so came... Roads and

infrastructure spending looks like being the big issues locally so it

could come down to this. Who do voters blame or four projects

professor of politics at Strathclyde University John Curtice. Brian had

cemented himself in that seat in Aberdeen North in 2003. I

interviewed him when he won that seat and he got double what Labour

got in the last Holyrood election. It will be an interesting fight, but

probably a very strong showing for the SNP. This is one of the SNP 's

safest seats in Holyrood. This is not a constituency they won against

everybody's expectations, they first won it in 2003 when they want doing

very well. It will be a 13.5% swing to Labour if they are to pick it up.

That said, there are a few notes of caution for the SNP. The first is

their position in the opinion polls for the party. According to the most

recent of those, it has been something like a 5% swing since

2011. Secondly, the general rule of by-elections is they tend to be not

that good for governments and they are used for protests. We have not

had a by-election since the SNP gained power in 2007. The Labour

Party, the senior partners in the coalition with the Lib Dems, lost

ground, so we shouldn't be surprised if we end up with a bigger swing

against the SNP than the 5% of the most recent opinion poll. That would

suggest it won't be a stupendous win for the SNP, even getting the 13.5%

swing that would be a considerable feather in Labour's cap. Looking at

the numbers, hypothetically, if Labour did when what would happen in

Parliament? In practice, it won't make a great deal of difference. Two

of the defectors from the SNP are still supporting the party. It might

have some implications for the composition of committees, but the

truth is the SNP have a dominant position in Holyrood. It would be a

symbolic loss of the majority rather than anything more substantial.

looks like Mark McDonald will be the candidate for the SNP, going up

against Willie Young from Labour. Both are well known local figures.

They are, which means it will show that the SNP are getting voters to

think about the performance of the Labour Party in Aberdeen City

Council and not necessarily what is going on in Holyrood. In

by-elections in Fife the Labour Party successfully persuaded people

to focus on the record of the SNP on the Fife Council at that time rather

than the record of the Labour Government in Westminster. There are

chinks in Labour's armour on Aberdeen Council. In truth, for the

most part people are going to be saying to themselves, have happy I

would Alec Salmond and the SNP? Do I want him representing me? It is very

much a two horse race. How might the UK coalition partners there in this

election? They can't look forward to it with a great deal of confidence.

The Liberal Democrats' position in the polls is still dire. The

Conservatives aren't doing anything very much in Scotland. UKIP are

going to fight this by-election as well. They have done tremendously

well in by-elections in provincial England. Scotland is clearly a

tougher nut for UKIP. The only got 5% of the vote in 2009. If you look

at recent opinion polls, that currently looks to be the position

we are at at the moment. It will be interesting to see how well you

could manage to do, that I suspect they will be a pale shadow of their

performance south of the border. Transport and infrastructure will be

the main things. Bridge crossings will be a local issue and, of

course, meanwhile some people are anticipating that this will be a

by-election about independence. I would caution against that. Only 61%

of the people who said they voted for the SNP say they would

necessarily vote yes, I think in truce we may well find that the

SNP's performance in this by-election will probably outperform

whatever is the current support for independence in the constituency. To

that extent, we shouldn't read too much into this by-election.

Thank you very much for coming in. That by-election will be on the 20th

of June. You are watching Sunday Politics. We are heading to the news

shortly. After that we will look at the week ahead. The deputy leader of

the SNP will set out her policies. Good afternoon. The Education

Secretary Michael Gove has told the BBC he would vote for Britain to

leave the EU if there was a referendum today. He is the most

senior Conservative to contemplate backing England's exit from the EU.

He told the Andrew Marr show that life outside would be perfectly poor

ball -- tolerable but the best approach would be to let David

Cameron leader. The most important thing to do is support the Prime

Minister and then put it to a referendum. Some of my colleagues

are very exuberant and want to let off steam. My position is to let

David Cameron set out a platform and have the referendum.

The former prime ministers of Pakistan says he is confident he

will be returned to power more than 13 years after he was ousted in a

military coup. Results from yesterday's election put his

Pakistan Muslim League well in the lead but the party is expected to

fall short of a majority, forcing it to go into coalition.

He had been widely tipped to return to power, but it is still a

remarkable personal comeback after being ousted as Prime Minister by

the Army in 2009. -- 1999. It was cricketing legend Imran Khan

who most threatened his ambitions, galvanising young voters with his

call for a new Pakistan. With victory apparently insight, the

leading candidate recognise that a compost and. He said that he will

fulfil every promise he had made to the youth. Voters yesterday defied

the violence that had played the campaign. The turnout was 60%, the

highest in years. If the party fall short of the

majority they need to govern on their own they will need to deal

with other parties. He promises stable government, arguing that in

an effective coalition would be bad news for Pakistan.

He will have a honeymoon period of sorts, but from the economy to

tackling extremism time will not be on his side.

The Syrian government has rejected accusations that it was behind two

car bombs that killed at least 49 people in Turkey yesterday and

wounded dozens more. Hundreds of mourners have attended the

funerals. Nine people, all Turkish, have been arrested in connection

with the awnings. A group of senior nurses are warning

of inadequate staffing levels on many hospital boards in England.

They say healthcare is being put at risk. The government says hospitals

are best placed to decide on the number of staff places.

There will be more news on BBC One at six o'clock this evening.

Good morning, police are still waiting to speak to the critically

injured daughter of a woman who was found dead in a Greenock hotel.

Margaret McDonagh was found severely injured in a room in the Premiere In

on Friday. Her 23-year-old daughter is in a critical condition in

hospital. The women were not stabbed. Police cannot yet establish

whether there were suspicious circumstances.

Firefighters have brought under control a blaze in Cumbernauld. The

fire broke out in the kitchen of the hotel this morning. A number of

rooms had to be evacuated, but there are no reports of injuries.

David Livingstone 's great-grandchildren are to mark the

anniversary of his birth. They will be special guests at the Church of

Scotland's General Assembly. They will be remembering his missionary

work in Malawi and Zambia where he is still regarded as a national

hero. My father kept it a dark secret, but as he says it's just

your luck or whatnot. We take it quite, you know, modestly, shall we

say. There are two matches being played

in the SPL today. Hearts are taking on Hibs while Motherwell face Ross

It is an unsettled picture with outbreaks of rain affecting parts of

Scotland, but as the rain moves eastwards it will break up. The rain

will extend into Shetland later in the day. As far as temperatures go

the winds will be increasing all the time from the West. Blustery showers

will follow in its wake, but staying is making news in Holyrood, let's

look back at the week in 60 seconds. The Queen set out the UK Government

's programme at the State opening of Parliament. It includes measures to

curb immigration and preparation for the independence referendum.

government will continue to make the case for Scotland remaining part of

the United Kingdom. Alex Ferguson said he is stepping

down as manager of Manchester united. David Moyes will take over.

Edinburgh will be revitalised by adding cafes with outside seating on

Princes Street. Joanne Lyman said Alex Salmond

didn't care about healthcare. At Westminster, Nick Clegg said he

blocked Tory proposals to increase the number of children staff should

This week we have the recently retired political editor of the

Sunday Post and the Sunday Times journalist. I think we know who will

be making the news this week in politics in Scotland. Gordon Brown

urges Scots not to give up on the UK. Gordon Brown returning to the

front line as they launch Labour's Row union campaign. Gordon Brown is

always a very interesting person to watch. We haven't seen much of him

over the last few years. He is still the MP for Kirkcaldy but he has been

off doing other things. Friends say that he was despondent after he

stopped being Prime Minister and it has taken him sometime to get back

into it and his wife has been instrumental in helping him to get

over that period. I think he will come back fighting. The union

campaign need someone to make a positive case. Whether Gordon will

do it, I don't know. The headline suggests he will be quite divisive.

Do you think he is an attractive figure two voters? -- to voters?

think in England he is treated as a figure of fun almost, certainly in

political circles, but in Scotland we still think he is one of our

lads. By his own efforts he became a major figure and became Prime

Minister. Whether he will be a major figure in the no campaign I don't

know. He is making a speech tomorrow, whether he will be a

continuing figure I doubt very much. This is not moving away from Better

Together it is just a Labour campaign and they need those

footsoldiers if they want to do well. The problem for Labour and

Netted Together is they have different agendas. They want to see

the union retained but Labour has very much an anti-Tory agenda at

Westminster. When you have a big beast like Gordon Brown wading in,

he will have his own thoughts. There is potential for ructions. Nicola

Sturgeon more argue that there is a national majority in Scotland. It is

interesting that the Gordon Brown speech tomorrow has really

overshadowed the Nicola Sturgeon speech. Most of the papers have gone

with the Browns speech. Nicola is saying that if Scots believed

Scotland would be a fairer and better of country and independence,

they would vote for independence. I think she has a big task on our

hands to do that. To go back to Labour, I think they have been

needled slightly. We see the SNP saying Labour in Coalition with the

Tories. I think this is worrying them a little bit. The fact that

they are being linked with the Conservatives, they are trying to

say, this is labour for the union rather than just better together.

What you think of the phrase a natural majority? There are still

quite a lot of questions that haven't been answered that are

piling up. The yes campaign has had a torrid couple of weeks. Nicola is

very good. She will be trying to put a marker in the sand to try try to

re-establish that campaign. When it comes to majority, it is the polls

that kind. Let's look at another issue in the Sunday mail. Nigel

Farage is downing a paint. He is coming to Scotland on Thursday. It

will be a very interesting by-election won't it? I don't think

UKIP or how much impact on the outcome of the by-election. I think

it is a two horse race between the SNP and Labour. Labour have a good

candidate, a well-known local councillor. Having said that, that

may be one of Labour's weaknesses because the SNP can attack Labour on

their council record. There is a lot of disquiet over the third Don

Crossing. The Liberal Democrats have already made a lot of this. If the

SNP were to lose this it would be a major blow. I think the majority

will be decreased but I don't see them losing. Do you think Brian Adam

built up a strong will support there? He had a majority 7000.

was well liked. He has gone on very sad circumstances. There will be a

lot of sympathy around that. He seemed to do a good job. For Labour

to win, it is going to be a huge achievement. That is where the