30/03/2014 Sunday Politics Scotland

Morning, folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics.

Can Ed Davey keep the lights on? Can he ever deliver cheaper power? Or

the investment our energy market badly needs? We will be asking the

Energy Secretary. Why has the anti-independence Better

Together campaign suddenly got the jitters? We will be quizzing

Scottish Secretary Alistair Carmichael.

And whatever happened to the BNP? They could be heading for electoral

oblivion. We will be asking why. Coming up on Sunday Politics

Scotland. The pro-Union parties have ruled out

a deal on currency, but does a newspaper report signal a change in

the policy? We will be speaking to Alex Salmond live.

And with me, as always, the most useless political panel in the

business, who we're contractually obliged to insult on a weekly basis.

But not today, because they are our chosen ones. They are the brightest

and the best, we've even hired a plane to prove it: Helen Lewis,

Janan Ganesh and Nick Watt who'll be tweeting throughout the programme.

Right, left and centre of the Westminster Establishment have been

unanimous in saying there would be no chance of monetary union with the

rest of the UK for an independent Scotland. Then an unnamed minister

spoke to our Nick saying that wasn't necessarily so, and that made the

Guardian's front page. The SNP were delighted and the anti-independence

campaign rushed to limit the damage. The faux pas has come at a time when

the Better Together side was already beginning to worry that things were

going the Nationalists' way. Let's speak to a leading light in that

campaign, Scottish Secretary Alistair Carmichael, who's in

Aberdeen at the Scottish Liberal Democrat spring conference.

Alistair Carmichael, why is there a sense of crisis now engulfing the no

campaign? I think that is something of an overstatement. What you have

got is, I am getting my own voice played back in my ear. What you have

got here is one story from an unnamed source, a minister who we

are told, we do not know for certain, who has speculated on the

possibility of a currency union actually happening. I do not think

that is helpful but it is not any big deal. You have to measure it

against what we have got publicly named on the record. We have got a

detailed intervention of the Governor of the Bank of England,

Mark Carney, outlining all the reasons why a currency union would

not be a good idea. And then you have got independent advice from the

permanent Secretary of the Treasury himself saying actually, this is

such a bad idea, that I would never advise a chancellor to go ahead with

it. You set one against the other and you see that pretty much the

force of argument is very much against those of us who want to

remain in the United Kingdom. All the minister was saying is come the

day, if Westminster is negotiating with a new independent Scotland, a

deal is to be done, Faslane where the nuclear deterrent is, there is

nowhere else in the UK to put that is, certainly not for the next 20

years, a deal would be done, the nuclear weapons would stay in

Faslane and Scotland would get a monetary union with the rest of the

UK. That is perfectly plausible, isn't it? No, I'm sorry, it is

simply not plausible. The economy is more important than anything else.

What you have had here is very clear advice from the treasury officials

saying it is not in the economic best interests of the people of

England Wales, Northern Ireland, any more than it is in the interests of

people in Scotland. Where do you put the nukes? The outcome will not

change. Where do you put the nukes when the Nationalists kick you out?

I do not believe that will be a problem because I do not believe

Scotland will vote for independence. But you might be asking the Scottish

Nationalists, who are apparently promoting this, are they then not

sincere when they say they want to remove nuclear weapons from

Scotland? It seems to be a curious mixed message. As you know, I have

not got the Nationalists, I have got you, so let me ask you the

questions. You are widely seen as running a campaign which is too

negative. The Nationalists are narrowing the gap in the poll found

you are squabbling among yourselves. This campaign is going pear shaped,

isn't it? No, let's deal with the polls. All the polls show that the

people of Scotland want to stay as part of the United Kingdom. Yes,

there were a couple of polls last week that said the gap was narrowing

a little. The most recent poll of all, the poll on Wednesday which

actually polled people's voting intentions on the question come

September showed that only 28% of people in Scotland were prepared to

say they were voting yes, as opposed to the 42% who were on our side of

the argument saying they wish to remain part of the UK. That poll

said women were skewing towards a yes vote and it showed that the

don't knows were beginning to skew towards a yes vote. That is why you

yourself wrote this morning that if your campaign does not get its act

together, you would be sleepwalking into a split to quote yourself. No,

to quote myself I said it was not impossible that the Nationalists

could win that. That is absolutely the case. The biggest danger for the

United Kingdom camp in this whole argument is people will look at the

polls. They show us with a healthy lead consistently. As a consequence,

they think this will not happen. It can happen. I have got to tell

everybody that it could, not least because the Nationalists have an

enormous advantage in terms of the amount of money they have at their

disposal to buy momentum. They will be advertising in cinemas, in

football matches and on social media. We have got to realise what

is coming and as a consequence, we have got to get our arguments in

place and our campaign as sharp as theirs. Thank you for joining us.

Nick, this unnamed minister who gave you the story, did he or she know

what they were doing? I do not think they were sitting there wanting to

blast this out there, because the agreed government position was there

will not be a currency union, if there is a vote for independence.

But what I was managing to get hold of whether thoughts that are in the

deeper recesses of people's minds, when they are looking at the polls

which have been narrowing, or there was Alistair Carmichael quite

rightly says, the pro-UK vote is still ahead. People are looking down

the line, what would happen after the 18th of September this year, not

just the next day but the next year, in those very lengthy

negotiations that would take place, when there would be a lot of moving

places on the table. You talked about Faslane, what would happen

then and that is what I managed to get hold of, that there are thoughts

about all those pieces that would be on the table. It is not surprising

that some in Westminster think that. Let's take the Shadow

Chancellor Danny Alexander at his word, they do not want a monetary

union. But if they are faced with giving the Scots a monetary union in

a post-independent Scotland, or having to remove the nuclear

submarines from Faslane, where they have nowhere else to put them,

probably except North America, there is a deal to be done. I think

whatever minister gave Nick his story is probably onto something. If

the Scots vote for independence, of course a deal will be done about the

currency because it is not in London's interests to have a

rancorous relationship with Edinburgh. Even if the deal is not

done, how does one country stop another country using its. That is

different. All London can really do is prevent Scottish intervention on

the monetary policy committee. The interest rate would be set without

any regard to the Scottish interest. Even that is only a fatal problem if

the Scottish economy becomes so out of sync with the UK economy. Except

it is a problem for Scotland's financial system because if you go

down that route there is no means of injecting liquidity into the

financial system in the financial crisis. That is why they would

rather have a monetary union. Is it not remarkable to hear the Secretary

of State for Scotland here that the Nationalists are spending too much

money, when he represents a campaign which brings together all the major

parties in the UK and all the resources of the UK and he is

bleating about the Nationalists having more to spend? I did think

that was a funny line and it was in the Observer. It lays into Alex

Salmond's plucky upstart idea that he's taking on this big

establishment. I thought it was a bizarre open goal, I am losing my

football metaphors, forgive me. The polls are so in favour of a no

vote. But the trend has been going their way. We have six months left

which is not enough to close the gap. They always tell you Alex

Salmond is a strong finisher. The plucky upstarts have this funding

from a millionaire. The Better Together campaign are being

incredibly cautious about where they get their money from. They do not

want to go to the City of London Police say, give us a couple of

million. Being Energy Secretary used to be a

bit of a dawdle, especially when North Sea oil was flowing. Now it's

very much a hot potato as Ed Davey has been finding out the hard way.

High household energy bills have been top of his inbox. The big six

energy companies account for 95% of the market. Off Johnson -- Ofgem

said there had been possible tacit coordination in the timing of price

rises and ordered an investigation by the competition and markets

authorities which will look at whether the big six should be broken

up. Where does that leave investment? The boss of Centrica

made the point that you would not spend money building an extension if

you knew in two years time your home might be bulldozed. The spare

margin, that is what is left in the margin, that is what is left in the

generating system to cope with a surge in demand on a cold winter's

night, is due to drop to historically low levels in 2016,

according to Ofgem. Normally at around 15%, capacity could drop to

2% after the next election and that could lead to a surge in the sale of

candles. Now where is that light switch?

Energy Secretary Ed Davey, joins me now. Oh, we have found the light

switch! The gap between a peak winter demand and generating

capacity could possibly reach 2% next winter or the winter after. We

will keep the lights on, that is for clear. When we came to power, energy

investment had been relatively low. The Labour Party had failed to deal

with the energy deficit. From day one we have been pushing up

massively. Investment has been 8 billion a year. Last year was a

record. Spare capacity is now heading to 2%. Why are you allowing

it to get that no? Because we have been increasing investment

massively, last was a record level, we will be able to keep the lights

on. Some of the figures you are showing suggests we are not doing

anything. We have not only done enough in our last three years, we

have put in measures to stimulate huge amounts of extra investment. We

have the healthiest pipeline investment in our history. We will

come onto investment in a minute. None of that change is the fact that

we will be close to 2% next winter or the winter after that. We have

one major power station shut down, or a cold winter away from having

major problems with energy supply. It is still 2%. Let me explain. The

figures assume we are not doing anything but we are doing something.

Look at the National Grid. They are able to bring in energy from

interconnector is because we are connected up to Europe. They are

able to create a reserve so if we get to problems, they will have a

mothballed plant they can bring on. You have not agreed with anybody on

that. The decision was taken last July. But no supplier has agreed to

under mothball its plant. We would not expect them to do that yet. Our

plan is in place. On time, on schedule, as we already thought it

would be. But you have not got a single agreement with a power supply

who has mothballed plant to on the ball it. We did not expect to. Our

plan is in me National Grid will do an election to allow those plants to

come on. There is a huge amount of interest. There are gigawatts of

power that can come in to come on. There is a huge amount of interest.

There are gigawatts of power that can come into that auction and we

are not other measures we can take and that is just in the short term.

We have a plan for the medium-term. We will be running the first auction

for new capacity. The final decision will be taken and we have learned

lessons from what they do in North America and other European countries

so we can stay minute mothballed plants and new plants to be built. I

am absolutely clear there is not a problem. You only build 9000

megawatts of new capacity from 2011-13. You have closed almost

22,000 megawatts. Why would you be so cavalier with a nation's power

supply? The last Government was cavalier because we knew those

figures are happening because we've known for a long time a lot of power

plants were coming to the end of their life, coal power plants,

nuclear power plants, and we had to increase the rate of investment, but

we... That shows clearly you are closing twice as much, you have to

date, closed twice as much as you have opened, hence the lack of spare

capacity. We knew a lot of them are coming back for the last Labour

Government knew. We have increased the new so that's increasing

significantly, far faster than under the last Government but also

remember, you were very wrong at the beginning of your clip, margins at

15% are very own usual. They are historically high. The average

margin was 25%. That was wasting a huge amount of money. But since

privatisation, we've had margins between 5% and 10%. Normally, high

margins historically, which is costly. Now we will have

historically low margins. People have to pay for that, so we make

sure the lights stay on, we have a short-term policy I have described

to you, and medium-term policy and a long-term policy. The long-term

policy comes huge investment between nuclear and optional,

policy comes huge investment between on. Ofgem, Independent, says the

chance of blackouts by 2016 has increased fourfold under your watch.

What they say, if you read the report, if we did nothing, they

would be problems. But we have been working with Ofgem. We have been

working with National Grid, and we have agreed that there will be a

reserve capacity which can come on if we get to the peak for the Best

not just on the supply side but demand and into connectors. You talk

about industry having to move to off-peak times. We say, they are

prepared to that you paid for it, and it makes commercial sense for

them, it's a sensible thing for the Wii will pay them to move to

off-peak. You have huge diesel parks for the you talk as if that

something new but it's been around for a long time for the 200 these

contracts out there. We want to expand that. You have hundreds of

diesel generators to click into, haven't you? There's a whole range

of generators. Diesel generation, dirty fuel. There's a of mothballed

gas which can come. If you look at the increase of the independent

generators, many companies, a range of power companies who are building

a new power station and want to build new ones. This is a healthy

situation. You say you made over 100 billion new investment between now

and the end of the decade to restore capacity and meet renewable

targets. Now you have referred the Big Six to the competition

commission, how much of that to expect to come from them? We will

see what the market delivers. We have always expected independent

generators to do a lot more than is happening in the past. How much from

the Big Six? It's not for me to say it's going to be best from that

company. The real interest is we have huge amounts of companies

wanting to invest. If you look at independent analysis, they say

Britain is one of the best places to invest in energy in the world. We

are the worldly do in offshore wind, one of the best for

renewables, one of the only countries getting nuclear power

stations. Rather than the bleaker picture you're painting, the reverse

is the case. We are seeing an investment renaissance. You say

that. Let me give you some facts. Under this Government, only one gas

plant has been under construction, only one started under your watch

for the others were done under Labour. You have none in the

pipeline. The Big Six has pulled back from further investment

including new offshore wind investment and none of what you're

talking about will come before 2020 anyway. That's simply not true. The

balance reserves I've talked about, the reserve planned: Making sure the

mothballed plant could come on, I capacity market incentivising new

power, will happen way before 2020, so that's not true. But doesn't

answer the extra capacity. You have no answer between now and the end of

this decade. We have three answers. Let me repeat them for you. I said

permanent, not the short-term ones you are putting in place to try to

do with spare capacity. We have a short-term plan, of course, that's

very sensible. Medium-term plan, auctioning for new power stations.

That can lead to both mothballed plant and when you plant, permanent

plant being built, and the long-term plan, to stimulator long-term

investment, some of which will be built and come online way before the

end of the decade. I'm afraid, it's a far rosier picture than your

painting. It's also far more expensive, too. Let's look at how

you are replacing relatively cheap energy with much more expensive

sources of energy. Wholesale prices is ?50 per megawatt. You have done a

deal with EDF, nuclear, ?92 50. You have indexed it for 30 years at 2012

prices. All of that puts up our bills. First

of all, the support of the low Carbon is just 4% on bills. What has

been driving peoples bills over the last decade has been wholesale gas

prices. No one knows what guys prices are going to be in the future

-- gas prices. When you look at the Ukraine and other market indicators,

many people are worried that by the time nuclear power stations come

online for example, the price of gas could be significantly higher. You

have indexed linked that for them by the time you get any power from

this, it'll be up to ?125 per megawatt hour. The price of gas been

going up far higher. Not recently. Despite Iran, Ukraine, Libya, not

recently. The long-term forecast, Andrew, it's going to go higher but

more importantly than that, this is an area we could disagree on but

it's very important that power plants pay the cost of pollution. In

those prizes, all of those prices except the wholesale out a steep

price, you have those power stations paying the cost of air pollution. If

gas and coal where paying the proper carbon price, you would see nuclear

and renewables as competitive. It's very important that we ensure that

power plants pay the cost of the pollution. When you were last on

this programme to talk about this in May 2012, you said that the price of

offshore wind was coming down fast. You told me it would be down by 30%

in the next few years. That figure is 155, and for the deeper stuff,

it's going to be ?165. That's the first year of a limit control

framework which had it coming down. If you talk to many companies,

Siemens had invested with their partners, ?310 million with two new

factories. They are talking about lower prices because what they are

saying to me is that, rather than the 30% cost reductions I talked

about, I was wrong, they are targeting 40%. You said prices would

come down 30% in two years for that that was 2012 and they have gone

higher. I absolutely did not say that. Your exact quote was 30% in

the next few years. Your exact few years. You said two years, I sell a

few years. I haven't changed a single moment that you said two

years, I said a few years. That's what we are projecting. They will

come down. You have to invest in technology. Let me give you this

example. When people invest in mobile phones to start off with,

they were expensive, and they were clunky and the costs were going down

for the one final question. You put the Big Six into investigation

because they made a 5% return on investment and you're done a deal

with EDF, nuclear power, which will guarantee them a return of 10% - 15%

every year for 30 years. Doesn't that underline the shambles of your

energy policy? You have mixed up two separate things. The 5% Ofgem are

talking about is on the supply retail side. The percentage you

quoted for EDF is in the wholesale side of two different markets. It's

the same return. It's not. You are comparing apples and pears,

dangerous thing to do. You have to do have a high return but in the

dangerous thing to do. You have to retail market, with a 5% stake,

there is less risk, says a low return. Ed Davey, I'm sorry we

haven't got more time. Thank you. Have me back. We will. Whatever

happened to the BNP? The far right party looked as if it was on the

verge of a major breakthrough not so long ago. Now it seems to be going

nowhere. In a moment we'll be speaking to the party's press

officer, Simon Derby. But first here's Giles. His report contains

some flash photography. For a moment in 2009 Nick Griffin and the BNP had

a spring in their step, smiling at their success of winning two seats

in the European Parliament. They already were the second largest

party in a London council and had a London Assembly seat. Despite

concerns from mainstream parties their vote was up. Our vote

increased up to 943,000. Savouring success was brief that morning as

anti-far right protestors invaded and egged the press conference and

forced the BNP MEPs into a hasty retreat. What is more significant is

that, in the years since, that retreat has been matched internally,

electorally and in the minds of those who had given them that vote.

For a number of years they were performing better than the UK

Independence Party and other smaller parties like the Greens and respect.

The problem for the BNP if they didn't make any inroads into other

groups, they didn't go into the middle class, the young, they didn't

go into women and ethnic minorities for obvious reasons. So the party

was quickly handicapped from the outset. Not that you would have

known that at the outset. In 2006 in Barking and Dagenham, the party won

12 council seats against a back drop of discontent with the ruling Labour

council and Government and picking up on immigration and housing

concerns in the borough. It's because of all the different

nationality people moving in the area, they are taking over

everything. My Nan and grandad lived there all their lives. I thought I

would vote for BNP. Hopefully, yeah, they will get elected over here.

When I came to Barking, Dagenham and Redbridge in 2006, the BNP with a

second largest party in one of the local councils. You can even find

non-white people who voted BNP. Now they have no counsellors, and even

though can when you talk to people, you will find among the older white

working-class population concerned that the BNP claim to represent,

everyone says they are nowhere. So what happened to that about? On

behalf of all the people in Britain, we in Barking have not just beaten,

that we have smashed the attempt of extremist outsiders. The local

Labour MP was as clear in 2010 as she is now. I always knew if we

could manage to ensure that wasn't a single BNP councillor left on the

council and I won my seat, it would stop the process of disintegration.

But what beat the BNP here in 2010 was a mobilisation of the Labour

vote. And today it is not hard to find the same discontent over the

same issues. It's just finding a new political home. A couple of years

ago, I used to vote Labour. Obviously, they haven't done nothing

around here as much now, with jobs and unemployment, and housing and

stuff like that about, basically, BNP ain't around here no more. Now

it's more about UKIP and I believe that these UKIP are saying are true.

If I thought BNP would make the difference, I would vote but is not

in the people behind them. They all get bandaged with the same brush.

I'm going to vote UKIP because BNP didn't get anywhere. What they say

in UKIP, with a bit of luck, they will get somewhere. It's not racist

but it's just that our kids haven't got jobs. Nick Griffin's dislike of

UKIP is mutual but his once fellow MEP Andrew Brons who's now left the

party issued a statement to this programme saying BNP failure is

closer to home post 2010. It was after that election discontent arose

amongst sections of the membership. Those members who left or were

thrown out by Nick Griffin had already felt let down by his

appearance on Question Time. It was a national platform for the BNP,

something they felt they had the right to through electoral success.

This was no big breakthrough moment for Griffin, unlike it was for John

Marina pen when he appeared on national television in France. He

went on to mobilise a national force. Despite there being some

voters tuned to their message, for the BNP, becoming such a force here

has never looked quite so difficult. And Simon Derby from the BNP joins

me now. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. It was not long ago you

had 55 councillors up and down the land, you now have two. You are on

the brink of extinction. That is not true. I have watched the film. It is

very negative as I would expect. The party has faced a few problems. The

main thing to bear in mind is that the issues, the problems the country

faces have gone away. We won nearly a million votes in the European

elections. We brought that mandate to the establishment and we were

denied. Let's face it, we would -- were denied any opportunity to take

place in the political apparatus. You have been destroyed by a pincer

movement. UKIP has taken away or more respectable voters and the EDL

is better at anti-Muslim protests and street thuggery. The EDL is not

a political party. I take your point about UKIP. The power structure took

a look at us and so we were a threat to power. We were not making this

stuff up, we meant it and they have co-opted our message. This shameless

promotion of UKIP, you have evenly had him presenting the weather on

this programme. That is unbelievable. That was a joke.

Across Europe, in France, your sister party the National front will

probably do very well. You can see the rise of the far right across

Western Europe so why are you in decline? We are not far right, I

reject that label. How would you describe yourselves nationalists and

Patriots. Why are you in decline and other similar parties to yours are

on the rise? You mentioned Barking and it is very interesting because I

was involved in that campaign. What Margaret Hodge and her Labour Party

did, they replaced the white indigenous population in Barking and

Dagenham with Africans, that is how they won that election. For that was

true, you would be doing well elsewhere. You have now got a leader

who is declared bankrupt and your party is heading for bankruptcy.

No, it is not. It is over. In 2009, they said a party with a

platform like yours would never win, and we did. Win or lose seats, the

Lib Dems would be annihilated in the next election, that will be the big

news. You deny that you are far right, but people used to say that

the BNP were neo-Nazi, and then Nick Griffin appears with golden dawn

from Greece, they are Nazis, and Nick Griffin appears with them. As a

pan-European organisation, we have to appear. You have to appear with

the Golden Dawn? I am happy to appear with everyone. The BBC has a

turbo reputation now, but I am happy to be here. Why can't Mr Griffin

come onto the BBC, common to TV and do an interview with us? You will to

an interview. He flew out to Damascus and prevented a war, he was

instrumental in sending a letter to the UK Parliament where we said we

would not interfere with Syria. The BBC never cover that, so do not make

out that we are not ordinarily political party that you cover like

everybody else. It is completely different. All of the signs are that

membership of the polls, performance and elections, the problems with

leadership, it is that you are now going the way of the National

front, heading for oblivion. That may be the case, if all of the

problems that we hadn't highlighted, and how we got that

you'd vote so many years ago, six years ago, in 2009, if they weren't

around. They are only going to get worse. These things will only get

worse. We're looking at a prototype, Islamic Republic that will be set up

in this country that will lead you to problems. And only the BNP are

prepared to say that and deal with it. Word leaked out that I was doing

this interview with you before the weekend, isn't it a sign of how

irrelevant you now are, that's not a single person has turned up at new

broadcasting house this morning to protest appearance, as there used to

be, hundreds which turn up and be said the BNP was coming on. That is

the left for you, they put the clocks on this morning and they

couldn't be bothered to get out of bed. Maybe they just could not be

bothered, they're not interested. Now, time for the programme in

Scotland. Good morning and welcome to Sunday

Politics Scotland. Coming up on the programme... An unnamed UK minister

tells a newspaper there COULD be a deal on sharing a currency. We'll

speak to the First Minister live. At their conference, the leader of

the Scottish Liberal Democrats tells delegates the focus should be on

making the UK work. And a year after the Coalition

government introduced major reforms to Housing benefit, we'll look at

how it's working in Scotland. Good morning. You'll remember a few

weeks ago the Chancellor came up to Edinburgh to formally rule out a

currency union, supported in a rare show of unity by his Labour and Lib

Dem counterparts. The Scottish government said it was a bluff and

maintained their stance of no Plan B. But a report in yesterday's

Guardian quoted an unnamed UK government minister as saying there

COULD be a deal to share sterling in the event of a vote for independence

in September's referendum. We'll be speaking to the leader of

the Scottish Liberal Democrats in a few moments, but all three

pro-Unionist parties have said the report is wrong. So just how

credible is it? Joining me now from Aberdeen is the First Minister, Alex

Salmond. Thank you for joining us this afternoon. Do you accept that

the statement from the three men who would be Chancellor after the 2015

election is a political one? Of course it is a political one, to be

stated at the time when they made at first that it was bluff and bluster

and ambling, and it looks like we have been proven to be correct. You

cannot say incidentally that the report was wrong, unless they are

saying that Nicolas Walter is not irresponsible journalist at the

Guardian and that it it's not responsible newspaper. The minister

doesn't oppose government policy? They say that a minister in the

government has it as a campaign tactic, and negotiating position. If

a minister in this government says this and believes this, why on earth

should the Scottish people be irritated by a combination of George

Osborne and Ed Balls? You may well say that this is not in the interest

of Scotland in the UK, but your opponents might disagree. You make a

political decision, these three men make the same decision, why would

they not go through with this? I thought if he asked me whether to

political decision, was at a political tactic? That is what the

unnamed minister has said to the Guardian, it is what the unnamed

minister has said to the Guardian, to the campaign tactic. But of

course, the obvious point is, if that is what the people in their

organisation in their own ministerial team believe, then why

on earth should the Scottish people believe any different? We know that

opposition to a currency union was a new-found thing. Alistair Darling

described the currency as logical and desirable. Only last December,

Alistair Carmichael said it would not be sensible to rule out a

currency zone, so it was a new-found tactic, dreamt up by Alistair

Darling and Andrew Dunlop, persuading the Treasury to do this.

Now it has been seen through that the bluff has been called and the no

campaign will have to take the political consequences, which will

be severe. It was said that the currency union would repeat the

mistakes of the euro crisis, and a currency union without a fiscal year

Min. That is the problem with what you're proposing, isn't it? No, we

put forward in the fiscal commission report last year, the measures that

it would make and how a currency zone would work. Mark Carney did not

rule out a currency zone, you stated provisions he would have to make a

currency zone work. You cannot argue that UK parties are against a

currency zone in principle, when Jackson Carlo, the debited leader of

the Conservatives in Scotland that he would go to the barricades to

obtain one. So incoherent at the heart of the neo-con pain, this has

now been exposed as a campaign tactic, something to intimidate the

Scots. London before you can set them in

Scotland under your proposals? There has to be responsible budgeting, but

you need that under any circumstance. You cannot say that

currency zones do not work. There was one for 70 years between Belgium

and Luxembourg that worked extremely well. That led eventually to a

political union. No, Belgium and Luxembourg are still independent

countries within the European Union and of course, throughout that

period of currency union, there was different taxation rates, different

personal taxation rates, different corporate taxation rates. It was a

working a sample of a currency zone within the heart of Europe, so it is

not an argument in principle, it is an argument as the fiscal commission

working group of foreword, and it is to the best advantage of Scotland

and the rest of the UK. Otters been exposed from the other side by the

unnamed minister is that this is a campaign tactic which was wanted by

Alistair Darling and Andrew Dunlop. -- what has been exposed. It was

designed to intimidate the Scots. Do you accept the rest of the code for

the Minister said that the UK wants to keep Trident nuclear weapon that

Faslane and the Scottish Government once a currency zone, can you see

the outline of a deal? No, not on the question of nuclear weapons. I

will explain to you why that is not correct to suggest that they are

half right. The opposition to nuclear weapons is not a negotiating

position, or a campaign tactic, it was alkaline and in the White Paper,

it is one of the reasons why we believe in Scottish independence.

What will be negotiated in terms of a artist currency zone will be all

about monetary aspects, because the situation could forward via George

Osborne and Ed Balls, if you claim the assets of the UK, like the Bank

of England and the BBC, then you get stuck with all of the liabilities

like the huge national debt and the hundred and ?25 billion which

otherwise, as we put forward in the White Paper, would be happy to take

responsibility for. That is what was being negotiated about a currency

zone. Or opposition to Trident and nuclear weapons, that is fundamental

to this case. Willie Rennie says that if there is a Nova Road, your

party should be involved in shaping the extra powers that the Unionist

powers have said for Holly Ruud? Would you get involved in that. --

if there is a Nova. -- no vote. Let me say clearly to Willie Rennie, I

want full involvement of the Liberal Democrats in the negotiating of the

best settlement of Scotland and the rest of the UK after Scotland votes

yes on the 18th of September. And if it goes the other way, the SNP would

give full co-operation? We are in visiting a yes vote, we will always

battle for the best for Scotland in all circumstances, but think we have

the wind at our back at the present moment. Tuesday is the anniversary

of the poll tax, and Andrew Dunlop, the same person who was mentioned in

the Guardian story as being the architect of this merry wheeze about

ruling out a currency zone, he was one of the architects of the poll

tax, so not content with wrecking the Prime Minister ship of Margaret

Thatcher, Andrew Dunlop seems to be instrumental in hauling the Unionist

case below the water line, perhaps he's by secret agents at the heart

of Whitehall! Well this issue of a currency union

has been one of the talking points amongst Scottish Liberal Democrats

at their party conference in Aberdeen. With senior coalition

ministers Danny Alexander and Alastair Carmichael both continuing

to insist it isn't going to happen. Meanwhile the party's leader Willie

Rennie has been trying to bring some 'sunshine' to the granite city and

the debate on independence. Responding to comments that the no

campaign is being too negative he's being outlining the benefits, as he

sees them, of remaining in the union. I'll speak to Willie Rennie

shortly but first from Aberdeen our political correspondent, Glenn

Campbell, reports. The Liberal Democrats Scottish

leader has adopted a sort of Morecambe and wise approach to

politics. It is what he called his sunshine strategy. It is to

emphasise the progress that we are making as a party, the fact that we

have an expansion of 30,000 more jobs in Scotland, the taxes are

down, pensions are up. That is the sunshine strategy. Emphasising what

Lib Dems are doing in government but also the fact the UK is good for

Scotland in Scotland is good for the UK. They oppose independence, but

their federal party leader concedes that the UK is not perfect, and is

in need of reform. Let me be unequivocal, rejecting independence

will not be choosing the status quo. It would be the start of a new

chapter. A different era. It must, I believe, be a giant leapt towards

are long-term, liberal definition, home rule. Nick Clegg called three

United front with Labour and the Conservatives in the referendum

campaign. But this was the weekend when one unnamed coalition minister

broke ranks, telling the Guardian that of course, there would be a

currency union after a yes vote, despite the fact that the UK

government has explicitly ruled that out. In Lib Dem ranks, one

independent supporting former party treasurer thinks that the currency

position is a bluff. The pound is not England, it is Britain. We are

part of Britain, we own as much of the pound as they do, they need to

negotiate with us. But Danny Alexander and sister will be no

pound sharing deal. It is nonsense, myself, the Shadow Chancellor, the

Chancellor, we have all been clear on clear advice of the Treasury that

a currency union would not work for an independent Scotland or the rest

of the UK, so it will not happen. Having Lib Dems like Danny Alexander

in Cabinet gives the party a high profile, but power comes at a price.

Some coalition policies are a hard sell in Scotland, and the party has

lost seats in local government and at Holyrood. It has lost some of the

bedroom tax is at Westminster, but worst of all, because of the U-turn

on tuition fees, people now do not trust the Liberal Democrats. We're

sometimes perceived as being liars, and to mutter what we say, it is not

going to convince them. We have got to prove by accidents. Willie Rennie

once housing benefit changes to be scrapped. It is not working as

intended, and I think it should just go. Big smiles! The Lib Dems are

awesome! Nick Clegg has hinted on giving Holyrood more power to offset

the income tax may be coming sooner. Willie Rennie may raise a

glass to that, but only avoiding election setbacks would call for a

knees up in a brewery. Joining us now from the conference centre is

leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats, Willie Rennie.

Let me ask you firstly about the currency union story. This is a

bluff? I was disappointed with the interview with the first Minister.

He is treating this as some sort of game. It is not a game. He is not

understanding the advice that was given by the Treasury. The position

has not changed and instead of taking the opportunity to set out

what the alternative would be, he carries on as usual, bluffing away

in his own way. But they have said all the time that this was a bluff

and behind the scenes, he may be getting proved right. The United

Kingdom Government has not changed. The stance of the Labour Party or

the Liberal Democrats has not changed. This was a mistake. A

minister out of the room who did not understand the policy. It is not a

change of policy. What Alex and his needs to set out as the situation

which will occur if we do not have a shared currency. Alex Salmond seems

certain that the yes campaign can win. Do you think that is possible?

Of course it is possible. I hope and I am campaigning with every inch of

my body that the latter is not the case. But no one should take this

for granted. A campaign which is very much alive. It is alive in part

a cause of the amount of money the yes campaign have been flowing into

this. They have the fortune in the war chest. We need to make sure we

compete every step of the way to match that. We need to put across

our messages, the messages I have been putting across this weekend

about the benefits of the currency union, and energy union. All of the

great things in the United Kingdom at great news for Scotland. Is this

new-found positivity on your part and what seems a trend in the

opinion polls towards a yes fort, down to the fact that the no

campaign has been too negative until now? We should not exaggerate. I do

not think there is a real trend. We have to get the balance right. I am

not afraid to ask difficult questions. I am not afraid to do

that on the big subjects, the likes of the currency union, the single

market and energy union. We need to get the balance right. I have always

been an upbeat type of person who will always accentuate the

positives. The fact we are able to drive forward that, renewable energy

ambitions in Scotland with in the United Kingdom. I want to tackle

climate change and make the best use of the assets we have here. I think

the United Kingdom is the best platform to do that. That message

has not reached some in your party. A couple of high-profile Liberal

Democrats have backed the yes campaign. Why can you not convince

senior members of your party to back the Better Together campaign? The

whole point of party is that we are called liberals, people with the

party different views. But I think you could count on the fingers of

one hand the number of people in the party who are in favour of

independence. Looking at your electoral fortunes as you go into

the European elections campaign, and much of the policies of the

coalition government parting the party in Scotland? Let us look at

the facts. Taxes are down, pensions are dropped, there are more jobs.

But looking at things that don't, you'll fought in Cowdenbeath, you

fought in Dunfermline. I want to tell you about the good things.

Taxes are down, pensions are up and that is more provision for childcare

and more jobs. That could not be happening without the Liberal

Democrats. That could not be happening if we did not take part in

government in the early days to put forward our views. I know things are

coming for the party. Things are getting better. And I know what is

happening on the ground. I was quoting your figures from recent

elections. You said in a conversation with Brian Taylor that

the bedroom tax should be scrapped. Has Nick Clegg given any indication

that that will happen? There will be an announcement in the coming

weeks, which will meet the bequest from John Swinney to raise the, so

it is effectively quashed in Scotland. Should it be scrapped in

Scotland? I understand the principle of it. We need people to make the

best use of their assets, but it has not what. Thank you very much for

joining us. The reforms were controversial from

the start and as we have just heard, this week Scottish Liberal Democrat

leader Willie Rennie said Westminster welfare changes aimed at

cutting under-occupancy in social housing should be scrapped. His

comments come as a BBC investigation suggests the changes have failed to

tackle overcrowding leaving thousands of tenants in rent

arrears. A year on since the policies introduction, Megan

Paterson looks back at the impact it has had here. Over the last year,

the people in this house have been interested in the people living in

our house is. In that reducing the welfare bill, it reduced benefits

for people in social housing deemed to have a spear room. I was worried

about being if it did. It was very stressful for me and for my two

girls. This was my grandparents house. Fiona is one of the 72,000

people affected by changes to housing benefit. She is considered

to have a spear room so has had her benefits reduced and is now in rent

arrears. She is fighting her case with the help of shelter Scotland. I

cannot really afford it. I am on benefits and I am struggling. I wake

up in the middle of the night, I cannot sleep. It is horrible, it is

not nice. Almost 80% of Scotland's councils responded to the survey. If

over 15,000, a hundred households in rent arrears for the first time

after the introduction of the benefit change, just over 25%. In

Edinburgh, 58% find themselves in arrears in Dundee, 53%. Temporary

support is available in the form of discretionary housing payment. But

some councils have not spent their allocation, mainly because many

people who are entitled to have not claimed. Like manager council has

the highest spend in the United Kingdom in this regard. There were

always challenges before even the bedroom tax was in Broughton.

Unfortunately, with the difficulties of the bedroom tax, it has caused

the speak in the amount of disruption and I am pleased we have

been able to keep that to a minimum. ?36 million in total was set aside

for the scheme, housing charities say the rugby a shortfall of ?14

million between what it cost to implement and it returns. The fewer

the shortfall will have to be met by local authorities. It means that the

business plan for individual housing authorities will become less viable

as time goes on. All in all, it is a bad policy. It is a policy being

closely monitored by the independent housing monitoring Scotland. It

certainly has great health risks to social landlords. It could be as

negative for them as it could be for tenants. Less than 2% of those

affected by the changes have moved to smaller properties. Maybe was one

of them. She moved to a one-bedroom flat in the same street in

Motherwell. It made certain changes. There where some personal things, I

had to throw away a lot of memories in that house. I was a bit tearful

when I moved them, but I am getting there now. She still has rent

arrears, but the Department for work and person say there is enough

financial support available for people like her and the policy will

lead to fairness and social housing known and in the future.

Joining me now in the studio is Housing Minister Margaret Burgess

and in Aberdeen, Alex Johnstone from the Scottish Conservative. This

policy has not worked yet? I think it has the potential to work. There

are a number of organisations in Scotland who have been working very

hard to make sure it does not work. It was designed to ease

overcrowding, but only 2% of people have done so and moved. We could

probably get about 20% of people in every given year moving to smaller

accommodation. The fact that it's only 2% in Scotland shows you the

amount of opposition there has been to it. Have you been deliberately

steaming this policy? Of course we have not. Housing is devolved in

Scotland. It is for social landlords in Scotland to determine, not for

the United Kingdom Government. Alex Johnson said 20% of people could

potentially moving to smaller homes, the house is available. Could it

work in practice? No, the houses are not available. There is not the

house is the and the policy is not working and is unfair. We have that

the report that few owner does not want to move from her house because

it was her parents home, for grandparents home. What do you say

to someone in her position? What I see as we have a government in

Scotland which is working at changes to social housing. We have tens of

thousands of families waiting for social housing. The policy is

designed to make the best use of housing stock available. How do we

make sure that we do match people to the house is available? Since the

Scottish comment came to power, we are building more social housing

than previous administrations ever built. There is 32% more social

housing being built since the Scottish National party came into

power. What we are not prepared to do is force people to move from

their houses as the do not want to. If someone wants to move, we would

help and support and encourage that, but if they do not want to move,

they should not have to do it. The policy is not working. People cannot

afford to do it in the house is not there. Lifting the cap on

discretionary payments was difficult to do and she says that is why the

Scottish gunmen had asked Westminster to do that. Are you

asking for the impossible? No, we are asking for something simple. It

allows Westminster to make the cuts they need to do, but allows the

Scottish gunmen to assess people affected by the bedroom tax. It is a

simple change in legislation. Even Nick Clegg has said it is a sensible

thing to do. All we need to do is get the United Kingdom Government to

let us get on with it. I should not this not be instigated? I think it

was a mistake for them to ask for the to be lifted. I think it is

possible to lift the cap and ensure that has currently for consideration

in front of the Chancellor. In the last day of January this year, less

than two thirds of discretionary housing payments money had been

allocated with only two months left. I would suggest the Scottish gunmen

should have listened about how additional money could be used in

other ways. As a consequence, there could have been underpinning schemes

similar to the one in East Renfrewshire, for they are using

money to improve the housing. Just a brief response? This is the only way

that we can get money into rent account on a regular basis, and that

is why it is so important to get the cap lifted, and the point that Alec

Johnson makes about not all local authorities using it, that is the

whole point that we are arguing, that it is not distributed

properly, so the areas where it is needed most, they are not getting

enough, and the areas were perhaps they do not needed, they are getting

too much. Thank you both very much. You're watching Sunday Politics

Scotland. Let's cross to the news now from Reporting Scotland with

Andrew Kerr. Good afternoon. The First Minister

is predicting the Better Together campaign is going to "get worse"

following the leak on the currency union, but the UK government say no

deal will be done. Alex Salmond was speaking after yesterday's report in

which an unnamed minister said a Westminster opposition to Scotland

keeping the pound would fall away in the event of a yes vote. But cabinet

ministers say whatever happens, a currency union will not take place.

If the Scottish people were to vote for independence, there would be a

protracted negotiation about many issues and the future of the base at

Faslane would be one of those issues. What I'm saying to you about

a currency union is that is not just another item that could be

negotiated, because there are clear, economic reasons why it would not

work. A man has died after falling on Ben

Nevis in the Highlands. The 57-year-old from Glasgow was

climbing with a friend on the north face of the mountain in Lochaber

when the accident happened yesterday morning.

Now a look at the weather forecast, here's Christopher.

A disappointing afternoon, dry and cloudy. Some brighter skies in the

south-west and later in the north-west and quite warm when the

sun comes out. 15, 16 degrees. Generally, about ten, 12 degrees and

down the eastern side, the easterly breeze continues to be quite chilly.

Plenty of sunshine for a Shetland, but cooler with nine degrees. Cloudy

with further fog in the east, that is your forecast.

That's it. I'll now hand you back to Gary. It's time to have a look at

what's in the Sunday papers and what is coming up in the week ahead.

Joining me this week - Political Editor of the Scottish Daily Mail,

Alan Roden, who's in Aberdeen. And here in the studio is Kevin McKenna,

who's a columnist with the Observer. Good afternoon to both of you, Alan,

you are in Aberdeen, Europe and watching the Willie Rennie speech,

how would you characterise the spring conference? I thought his

speech was quite positive. It has been an incredibly tough couple of

days for the no campaign. It's dominated proceedings here in

Aberdeen. A lot of work is being done by the Lib Dems and other

parties to resurrect Better Together. At the moment, in England

and Wales, his party is trailing UKIP. He did give a good upbeat

speech. Perversely, if Scotland were to vote yes, I think it would

benefit not only his party, but the other parties of the union in

Scotland. There is urgent in fortunes? -- a research and is. He

recognised that the Lib Dems had suffered for their association,

especially in Scotland, with the Conservative Party. So, it stands to

reason that if Scotland were to vote yes, the Lib Dems may be able to

reclaim quite a lot of their support they have lost up here. On the issue

of the referendum campaign, we have this unnamed minister at Westminster

saying that yes, that could be a deal on the currency union, clearly

as we heard earlier from Alex Salmond on the ass campaign. That

was buoyed by this. Can we look back on this and see it as a significant

potential turning point in the campaign? -- on the yes campaign. I

am confident that the no campaign will win this referendum. It has

been the most damaging week for this no campaign. The race is getting

closer, senior ministers and politicians coming out to criticise

Alistair Darling and others and crisis talks at Better Together for

the need for a new positive advertising campaign. There are

still an element of complacency in Better Together believes to be

stamped out, because this fight has got very, very real. Do you think it

is a turning point? It is a significant point in the campaign,

this journalist immediately knew the significance of what he was being

told. He was on the programme earlier, and also on the panel was

the financial Times journalist who said that what this minister was

saying made sense. You get the impression that people in England,

if Scotland were to vote yes, and the rest of the UK, they would

immediately go into business mode, it just makes sense for the rest of

the UK to share currency. Could it be harmful for some people in the

rest of the UK at Scotland has at that moment said, yes, we do not

want to have part of what you are offering? They are giving the hard

sell at the moment and they hope that they will never be asked to

deliver or to decide. They are hoping that there will be a vote for

no, and then that this will be forgotten about and as such, it will

not been a significant point in the campaign, however, Alex Salmond is

certainly on to something when he says that there is a lot of bluster

about this. It's an fee does not make sense. Are we expecting a

Chancellor of the rest of the UK to say to tens of thousands of English

businesses who are already being squeezed by the big banks to lend

and increase overdrafts, then it will actually cost them more money

to deal with Scotland and Scottish business and Scotland after all is

England's second biggest trading partner. On the direction of travel

for Better Together, you talk about a meeting this week that could be

characterised as a crisis meeting or otherwise, Better Together tell us

that they will continue to make many positive reasons for staying in the

UK, but this seems to be a shift, and Willie Rennie is exemplifying

this in the message they are trying to get across. Yes, he described it

as his sunshine speech. The negativity of the no campaign has

worked to some extent. There are these warnings about currency, and

the argument is heading to the ship workers, and there are swathes of

people in housing schemes in Glasgow and Edinburgh that are being

attracted to the yes cause, and they need to save this great nation of

ours. What do you make of this sunshine campaign, is there a

mileage in it for Better Together? Many of these people working on this

campaign are Labour activist, they come from working class areas which

are home to families that are living below the breadline and they know

that this would be a hard sell for people like them. I heard Alistair

Carmichael's speech yesterday, the day before, and he was talking about

what Britain has done for us in the context of what the Romans did for

us in the Monty Python sketch. That is all very well. A lot of these

issues about currency, about taxation, that is way beyond, way

above the radar for ordinary, poor, low-income families of which there

are many in Scotland. The recent trends have shown that they are more

likely to vote yes. Thank you both very much indeed.

That's all from the us this week. I'll be back at the usual time next

week. Until then, goodbye.