23/03/2014 Sunday Politics Scotland


23/03/2014

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The dust has barely settled on George Osborne's Budget and,

:00:42.:00:45.

amazingly, for once it hasn't all gone horribly wrong by the weekend.

:00:46.:00:49.

So is this the election springboard the Tories needed. And where does it

:00:50.:00:51.

leave Labour? Turns out the big Budget surprise

:00:52.:00:55.

was a revolution in how we pay for old age. The pensions minister says

:00:56.:00:59.

he's relaxed if you want to spend it all on a Lambourghini, he'll join us

:01:00.:01:01.

later. And could the man with the maracas

:01:02.:01:05.

be on his way to Westminster? Bez from the Happy Mondays tells us

:01:06.:01:08.

about his unlikely plan to become an MP.

:01:09.:01:12.

Coming up on Sunday Politics Scotland: At the party conference in

:01:13.:01:15.

Perth, Johann Lamont reasserts Labour's roots as a movement of

:01:16.:01:19.

social justice, but was she short on policy detail for the future?

:01:20.:01:43.

local bingo hall over a pint of beer. Yes, they're hard-working and

:01:44.:01:47.

they're doing the things they enjoy. Cup of tea, number three. It's Nick

:01:48.:01:53.

Watt, Polly Toynbee and Janan Ganesh.

:01:54.:01:59.

So, George Osborne delivered his fifth Budget on Wednesday and had so

:02:00.:02:03.

many glowing front pages the day afterwards he must be running out of

:02:04.:02:07.

room to pin them up in on his bedroom wall. Although it's probably

:02:08.:02:10.

a pretty big wall. For those of you who didn't have time to watch 3.5

:02:11.:02:14.

hours of Budget coverage on the BBC, here's Giles with the whole thing in

:02:15.:02:16.

three minutes. Budget days have a rhythm of their

:02:17.:02:47.

own, driven partly by tradition, like that photocall at 11 Downing

:02:48.:02:50.

Street and part logistics, how to get this important statement out and

:02:51.:02:53.

explain to those whom it affects - us? Behind-the-scenes of a Budget

:02:54.:03:05.

Day is much the same. This ritual red boxery may be the beginning of

:03:06.:03:09.

the end of weeks of work behind the scenes in the Treasury and sets the

:03:10.:03:12.

clock ticking on the process of finding out the answer to one

:03:13.:03:16.

question. You got any rabbits in the box, Chancellor? Yes, there will be

:03:17.:03:19.

something in the Budget we don't know about. Time marches steadily

:03:20.:03:21.

towards the statement and already commentators are hovering over what

:03:22.:03:27.

those potential surprises are. As Big Ben chimes, all focus returns to

:03:28.:03:31.

the Commons, where there is Prime Minister's questions and the

:03:32.:03:33.

Chancellor gets up and does his thing. Once he's on his feet and

:03:34.:03:40.

remembering there is still no copy of the details, the major measures

:03:41.:03:42.

are rapidly highlighted as they come and then put up on screen. A cap on

:03:43.:03:47.

Government welfare spending set for 2015/16 at 119 billion. Income tax

:03:48.:03:54.

personal allowance raised to ?10,500. Bingo duty halved, which

:03:55.:03:59.

ticked boxes for some but was unlikely to make anyone a poster

:04:00.:04:04.

boy. And the beer tax cut of 1p, or the froth on the top. And changes to

:04:05.:04:08.

pensions allowing people to take their money out in one lump sum,

:04:09.:04:12.

rather than being forced to accept a fixed annual pay-out, or annuity.

:04:13.:04:20.

This is a Budget for the makers, the doers and the savers and I commend

:04:21.:04:24.

it to the House. Not everyone can focus on the Budget by listening to

:04:25.:04:28.

what the Chancellor says. We need to get a copy of the script. We do not

:04:29.:04:32.

get that till he sits down. I'm going to go into the House of

:04:33.:04:39.

Commons to get that right now. There will be a response on that and all

:04:40.:04:42.

the other things from Mr Miliband. The Chancellor spoke for nearly an

:04:43.:04:46.

hour but he did not mention one essential fact, the working people

:04:47.:04:49.

of Britain are worse off under the Tories. It is a tricky job answering

:04:50.:04:53.

the Budget at the best of times, though some, including Labour MPs,

:04:54.:04:56.

think it is better to mention the Budget when you do.

:04:57.:05:00.

Here we are. I am going to go. I am not the only journalist missing Ed

:05:01.:05:07.

Miliband's speech. Many others leave the Chamber as the Chancellor sits

:05:08.:05:10.

down to attend a special briefing from the Chancellor's advisory team.

:05:11.:05:18.

I am hotfoot to the studio. There is a little more detail to the Budget

:05:19.:05:21.

than the Budget Speech. That detail can be whether words unravel and

:05:22.:05:24.

other interpretations emerge. By now the gaggle of supporters and

:05:25.:05:27.

detractors are taking the debate onto the airwaves. Are you the BBC?

:05:28.:05:36.

Have the Daily Politics packed up? No, we're still standing and, days

:05:37.:05:39.

later, still trying to assess whether the measures announced still

:05:40.:05:42.

seem fresh and appetising or have already gone stale in the minds of

:05:43.:05:43.

voters? How significant are these two poles

:05:44.:05:59.

this morning putting Labour and Tory nip and tuck? Osborne gave his party

:06:00.:06:09.

a good bounce. It was an astonishingly theatrical coup. At

:06:10.:06:14.

first glance, it seems like a huge gift to all people. That is where

:06:15.:06:17.

all of the money has been channelled by this government. They have been

:06:18.:06:22.

ultra-protected, triple locked. Pensioners have done very well and

:06:23.:06:27.

others less well. It is not surprising. Normally a budget which

:06:28.:06:32.

is well received on the day and the day after has unravelled by the

:06:33.:06:38.

weekend. This time, it has not, so far. The dangerous thing for the

:06:39.:06:43.

Labour Party now, George Osborne is the assessment this thing called the

:06:44.:06:47.

baseline. He says, in government, you must control the baseline. The

:06:48.:06:52.

Labour party controlled in 2001 and 2005 and he needs to control it next

:06:53.:06:56.

time. He is controlling it on fiscal policy because labour is matching

:06:57.:07:01.

them on everything. The danger for Labour on the big, headline grabbing

:07:02.:07:06.

issue, which was freeing up annuities on pensions, that again

:07:07.:07:10.

Labour was pretty much saying it was going to support it though it were

:07:11.:07:14.

saying it has to be fair and cost-effective. On a big, policy

:07:15.:07:19.

issue, they are following on behind George Osborne. George Osborne is

:07:20.:07:24.

controlling the crucial baseline. Are we in danger of reading too much

:07:25.:07:32.

into the political implications of the budget? The good thing about the

:07:33.:07:37.

pensions policy is, if it does unravel, it will not happen for ten

:07:38.:07:42.

years and, by that time, George Osborne will have left office.

:07:43.:07:46.

Towards the end of his speech, I thought, that is not enough. There

:07:47.:07:51.

is not an idea in your budget which is politically very vivid a year

:07:52.:07:56.

before an election. What I underestimated was, how many

:07:57.:07:59.

frustrated savers that are in the country. There are a lot of people

:08:00.:08:02.

frustrated savers that are in the who are frustrated by low interest

:08:03.:08:07.

rates and tax rates on pension pots. This was an explicit gesture for

:08:08.:08:12.

them. That is what has paid off in the polls in the past few days. You

:08:13.:08:17.

spend all of your money on your wardrobe, is that right? The bingo

:08:18.:08:24.

poster was a kind of get out of jail card for Labour. It gave them

:08:25.:08:28.

something to zoom in on. Everyone beat up on Grant Shapps, the Tory

:08:29.:08:33.

chairman. We read in the daily Telegraph that the fingerprints of

:08:34.:08:38.

the Chancellor were all over this poster. The Chancellor signed off it

:08:39.:08:44.

-- off on it and so did Lynton Crosby. They referred to working

:08:45.:08:54.

class people as, they are. How did it get into the Telegraph? We can

:08:55.:08:58.

only presume but grant Shapps made it clear that it was not him. We had

:08:59.:09:04.

a time when Labour politicians, we saw from the response of Ed Miliband

:09:05.:09:07.

onwards, they were not quite sure how to react to this budget. A lot

:09:08.:09:12.

of detail had to be absorbed. Suddenly, here is something we can

:09:13.:09:18.

talk about. You can see the thinking behind the poster was very sensible.

:09:19.:09:28.

We are not Tory toffs, we are interested in helping people who do

:09:29.:09:30.

not come from our backgrounds. The wording was awful and played into

:09:31.:09:37.

every cliche. It was all his fault. It shows how unsophisticated he

:09:38.:09:43.

was. There were people from Tory HQ who agreed the budget. A month down

:09:44.:09:52.

the line will the budget look as good? Probably. Once people look at

:09:53.:10:00.

it, pensions are fiendishly conjugated. Once they look and see

:10:01.:10:03.

what it will do with people having to pay for their own care because

:10:04.:10:07.

they can now take capital at their pension, that will come as a shock

:10:08.:10:10.

to a lot of people with small savings. It all be gone on their

:10:11.:10:19.

care. The polling will be neck and neck all the way. In the past,

:10:20.:10:23.

George Osborne has been accused of using his Budgets to tinker at the

:10:24.:10:27.

margins or pull cheap tricks on his political opponents. Perish the

:10:28.:10:29.

thought. But the big surprise in this year's statement was a

:10:30.:10:32.

genuinely radical shake-up of the pensions system that will affect

:10:33.:10:42.

most people who've yet to retire. At the moment, everyone is saving money

:10:43.:10:46.

into a defined contribution pension, that is the type most common in the

:10:47.:10:52.

private sector. They can take 25% of the pot is a tax-free lump sum when

:10:53.:10:56.

they retire. The rest of the money, for most people, they are forced to

:10:57.:11:01.

buy an annuity, a form of insurance which provide a guaranteed monthly

:11:02.:11:04.

income until they die. Annuities have hardly been a bargain since

:11:05.:11:10.

interest rates were flat slashed following the financial crash. Even

:11:11.:11:17.

with a ?100,000 pension pot would only get an income of ?5,800 a year

:11:18.:11:22.

at current rates. From 2018, pensioners will not be forced to buy

:11:23.:11:26.

an annuity. They can do what they like with their money, even taking

:11:27.:11:33.

the entire pot as a lump some but paying tax on 75% of it.

:11:34.:11:40.

With an average pension pot closer to around ?30,000, pensioners would

:11:41.:11:48.

be more likely to buy a Skoda instead of a Lamborghini. Most newly

:11:49.:11:54.

retired people who take the cash are more likely to spend the money

:11:55.:11:59.

paying off their mortgage, helping a family member to buy a property or

:12:00.:12:03.

investing the money elsewhere. Well, earlier I spoke to the Pensions

:12:04.:12:06.

Minister. He's a Lib Dem called Steve Webb. I began by asking him if

:12:07.:12:09.

he still thought the reforms might lead to pensioners splurging all

:12:10.:12:16.

their savings on supercars. What this reform is about is treating

:12:17.:12:20.

people as adults. For far too long, we have said, we will make sure you

:12:21.:12:24.

save for your old age and then we will control each year how much is

:12:25.:12:27.

spent on what you spend it on. What we are saying is because we have

:12:28.:12:33.

formed -- reformed the state pension, we will be much more

:12:34.:12:36.

relaxed about what people do with their own money. The evidence is

:12:37.:12:40.

that people who have been frugal and saved hard for retirement do not

:12:41.:12:45.

generally blows a lot. They will spin it out. It is treating people

:12:46.:12:49.

as adults and giving them choices they should have had all along. It

:12:50.:12:55.

is a red herring, isn't it? The average pension pot is between 25000

:12:56.:13:01.

and 30,000. Lamborghinis aren't an option, correct? I gather only about

:13:02.:13:09.

5000 people a year retiring can buy a flashy Italian sports car. It

:13:10.:13:12.

might be about paying off a mortgage, paying off outstanding

:13:13.:13:16.

debts. Maybe spending more money earlier in retirement when they are

:13:17.:13:20.

fit and able and can enjoy it more. We will give people guidance. We

:13:21.:13:25.

will make sure when they retire, there is someone to have a

:13:26.:13:28.

conversation with talking through the implications of spending the

:13:29.:13:31.

money early and options of investing it. This will be a real step

:13:32.:13:40.

forward. Even if you have a much bigger pension pot, say half ?1

:13:41.:13:42.

million, which is way bigger than the average, even then the marginal

:13:43.:13:46.

rates of tax will be a disincentive to take it all out at once. You will

:13:47.:13:53.

lose huge chunks of it at the 40% band and then the 45% band. The tax

:13:54.:13:59.

system gives you the incentive to spread it out if the tax threshold

:14:00.:14:04.

is a bit over 10000 and the state pension is a bit over 7000, the

:14:05.:14:09.

first 3000 you draw out in a given year is tax-free. The next band is

:14:10.:14:18.

at 20%. Spreading your money will mean you pay less tax. That is why,

:14:19.:14:21.

in general, people will not blow the lot up front. They will spread it

:14:22.:14:26.

out over their retirement. You have kept this policy quiet. Not even a

:14:27.:14:31.

hint. How did you test it? How did you make sure it would be robust?

:14:32.:14:37.

You did not do a consultation. I have been talking about freeing up

:14:38.:14:42.

the annuity market for a decade. The idea of giving people more choice.

:14:43.:14:46.

The government has relaxed rules over this Parliament. It was not a

:14:47.:14:49.

completely new idea. We know in places like Australia and America,

:14:50.:14:53.

people have these freedoms. We already have something to judge it

:14:54.:15:02.

by. We will spend the next year talking to people, working it

:15:03.:15:04.

through. There will be a three-month consultation. I want people to have

:15:05.:15:07.

choices about their own money. There is detail still to be worked out and

:15:08.:15:11.

we are in listening mode about how we implement it. When you announce

:15:12.:15:16.

something you cannot do widespread consultation, for the reasons I have

:15:17.:15:21.

given, you do run the risk of unforeseen consequences? Pension

:15:22.:15:24.

companies this morning are indicating, you, the government can

:15:25.:15:27.

write you are looking for ?25 billion of infrastructure investment

:15:28.:15:34.

from us. You hold our shell below the water line. That may not happen.

:15:35.:15:42.

We spoke internally about the implications for instruction --

:15:43.:15:58.

infrastructure. It seems to me there will still be long-term investments.

:15:59.:16:06.

Many people want to turn their whole pot into an income. I understand the

:16:07.:16:11.

insurance companies are lobbying, but I'm convinced there will still

:16:12.:16:14.

be plenty of money for investment and infrastructure. If the

:16:15.:16:19.

Chancellor's pro-savings measures work, that will generate more

:16:20.:16:27.

savings. With no requirement now to buy an annuity, surely it is the

:16:28.:16:31.

case that pension pots are another ordinary savings fund, so why should

:16:32.:16:39.

they continue to get favourable tax treatment? Bear in mind that a lot

:16:40.:16:45.

of the tax treatment of pensioners is tax deferred so most people pay

:16:46.:16:48.

tax at the standard rate. If they put money into a pension, they don't

:16:49.:16:55.

pay tax when they earn it, but they do at retirement. We do want, we

:16:56.:17:03.

will still have automatic enrolment into workplace pensions, we do want

:17:04.:17:09.

people to build up, because at age 20 and 30 nobody thinks about

:17:10.:17:15.

retirement. It is still vital that people do reach retirement to have

:17:16.:17:19.

these new choices with a decent sized pension pot. Pensions. Tax

:17:20.:17:26.

breaks because they were supposed to provide an income in retirement,

:17:27.:17:30.

that is how it was structured, but that is no longer a requirement,

:17:31.:17:36.

surely that undermines the case that if they get tax breaks, other forms

:17:37.:17:43.

of savings should get tax breaks. Other forms do get tax breaks, of

:17:44.:17:54.

course. The return with ISAs is tax free. The point with pensions is

:17:55.:18:00.

that you are simply deferring your earnings. There is a bit when high

:18:01.:18:09.

tax rate payers get a kick when they are working and then retire on

:18:10.:18:13.

standard rate, so there is the issue of the top getting too many tax

:18:14.:18:19.

breaks, but the basic principle that you pay tax when you get the income

:18:20.:18:25.

seems right to me and isn't affected by these changes. You have announced

:18:26.:18:30.

save friendly measures, are we right to look at them as a consolation

:18:31.:18:35.

prize because savers have suffered from the Government's policy of

:18:36.:18:39.

keeping interest rates abnormally low? It is certainly the case that

:18:40.:18:44.

very low interest rates have been a huge boon to people of working age

:18:45.:18:51.

with mortgages, and people who have retired said they thought they could

:18:52.:18:54.

have got a better deal on their savings. I think there is a

:18:55.:18:59.

recognition that whilst we have done the right thing with pensioners on

:19:00.:19:04.

the state pension, we have brought in the triple lock, and many will

:19:05.:19:16.

bent on -- benefit from these changes. Why don't savers who are

:19:17.:19:21.

not pensioners get the same help? They have been hit by low interest

:19:22.:19:27.

rates as well. Those of working age, many of them say they have

:19:28.:19:32.

benefited from low interest rates was predominantly people in

:19:33.:19:39.

retirement have not had the benefit. Obviously people of working age will

:19:40.:19:46.

have benefited from the tax allowance so it is a myth to say the

:19:47.:19:55.

Budget was all about pensioners. And yet even when the Office for Budget

:19:56.:19:58.

Responsibility takes into account your new measures, it still shows

:19:59.:20:02.

that over the next five years households will save less and less,

:20:03.:20:09.

indeed the savings ratio falls by 50%. You haven't done enough. One of

:20:10.:20:15.

the things we know is that the economy is picking up strongly, and

:20:16.:20:20.

as we have more confidence about the future they will be more willing to

:20:21.:20:23.

consume now, so without these measures it may be that the saving

:20:24.:20:27.

rate would have fallen further. We want people to save and spend, it is

:20:28.:20:36.

about getting the right balance. As the economy picks up, people will

:20:37.:20:39.

want to spend more of their money and it is about getting the balance

:20:40.:20:45.

right. You make the point that if people are little profligate with

:20:46.:20:49.

their private pensions, they will have the state pension to fall back

:20:50.:20:53.

on and it will be higher than it has been, but it is also the case that

:20:54.:20:58.

in these circumstances they will still be entitled to housing benefit

:20:59.:21:04.

and even to perhaps some council tax benefit as well. Do you know by how

:21:05.:21:09.

much this could put the welfare bill up? We think the impact will be

:21:10.:21:15.

relatively modest because the sort of people who save for a pension and

:21:16.:21:19.

make sacrifices while they are at work are not the sort of people who

:21:20.:21:26.

get to 65 and decide to blow the lot for the great privilege of receiving

:21:27.:21:30.

council tax benefit or housing benefit. There will be people on the

:21:31.:21:32.

margins and benefit. There will be people on the

:21:33.:21:44.

who retire with some capital want to put some money away for their

:21:45.:21:47.

funeral. People like to save even into retirement so the myth of the

:21:48.:21:52.

spendthrift pensioner I don't believe. I think this has been

:21:53.:22:00.

rightly welcomed. Ever fancied a Lamborghini yourself? If you turned

:22:01.:22:07.

the camera around you would see my 2-door Corsa!

:22:08.:22:20.

What's your favourite thing about an election? Could it be the candidates

:22:21.:22:23.

ringing on your door while you're having dinner? The leaflets piling

:22:24.:22:26.

up on your doormat? Or the endless adverts aimed at hardworking

:22:27.:22:28.

families? Well, if you thought that was bad enough, then you might want

:22:29.:22:31.

to consider going overseas for the 2015 election because the parties

:22:32.:22:34.

are going to be aiming their message at you like never before. Adam's

:22:35.:22:40.

been to Worcester to find out more. One of the most famous political

:22:41.:22:45.

figures in history lived here, she is called Worcester woman. She was

:22:46.:22:49.

in her 30s, working class with a couple of kids, aspirational yet

:22:50.:22:54.

worried about quality of life. But she wasn't a real person, she was a

:22:55.:22:58.

label for the kind of voter new Labour were trying to reach and she

:22:59.:23:03.

was later joined by Mondeo man and several others. Doesn't that all

:23:04.:23:10.

seem a bit 90s? The technique, called segmentation, was used by

:23:11.:23:17.

George Bush in 2004. Then refined by Barack Obama. Rather than focusing

:23:18.:23:21.

on crude measures like cars and hometowns, they delved into the

:23:22.:23:27.

minds of voters. It is not just women, not just people who live in

:23:28.:23:31.

cities, but if you start to put together these groups of people you

:23:32.:23:36.

can even in an anecdote or way imagine who they are, what types of

:23:37.:23:46.

language and imagery might relate to them. We have been given access to a

:23:47.:23:50.

new polling model being used here by this firm, which is pretty close to

:23:51.:23:57.

the one we are told is being used by the Tories. It carves the country

:23:58.:24:00.

into six personality types, and we are trying it out on Worcester woman

:24:01.:24:06.

and wast of man. We are using an online quiz to work out who is in

:24:07.:24:12.

which segment. Meet new monk, Susie. She feels well represented. I

:24:13.:24:22.

know the Budget and the increases to childcare, I think at the moment I

:24:23.:24:28.

am fairly represented. This puts her in the category of optimistic

:24:29.:24:32.

contentment, people who feel they are doing OK. Terry, on the other

:24:33.:24:38.

hand, isn't happy about Britain today. Health and safety and all

:24:39.:24:46.

that! I hardly recognise the country a living in any more? Yes. Are you

:24:47.:24:56.

ready for the result? He is Mr comfortable nostalgia, they tend to

:24:57.:25:01.

favour the Tories and UKIP. They dislike the cultural changes they

:25:02.:25:05.

see as altering Britain for the worst. That sums me up. Tony is

:25:06.:25:11.

worried as well but feels much less secure. I look forward to the future

:25:12.:25:23.

with optimism or anxiety? Anxiety. Optimist or pessimist? Pessimist.

:25:24.:25:33.

His category is... You feel a bit insecure, you think the Government

:25:34.:25:39.

could probably help you more? Yes. Labour picks up a lot of these

:25:40.:25:44.

voters. This man is being asked to do more and more at work, but he is

:25:45.:25:52.

getting less and less. I am getting more towards the despair side.

:25:53.:25:58.

Things are getting tougher, generally? It puts him into the

:25:59.:26:03.

segment called long-term despair, people who feel left out. Finally,

:26:04.:26:12.

this is ever thoughtful Carol. I am a bit of an idealist. Her idealism

:26:13.:26:21.

makes her a cosmopolitan critic. I am a liberal person. Apparently a

:26:22.:26:25.

lot of the media fit into this category as well. There is one group

:26:26.:26:32.

of voters we have not come across, people who show calm persistence.

:26:33.:26:35.

They hope things will get better but don't expect them to. They are

:26:36.:26:40.

coping, rather than comfortable. Presumably they are all out of work.

:26:41.:26:45.

Which group are you win? You can take the poll on the BBC website,

:26:46.:26:50.

and in the coming weeks we will be doing our own polling using the six

:26:51.:26:55.

segments to see of the politicians really have worked out how we think.

:26:56.:27:02.

And as Adam said, if you want to try the survey for yourself, you can go

:27:03.:27:06.

to the BBC website and click on the link.

:27:07.:27:08.

And we're joined now by the pollster, Rick Nye. Welcome to

:27:09.:27:18.

Sunday Politics. We have had Worcester woman, Worcester man, is

:27:19.:27:24.

this any different? It is a recognition that or politician --

:27:25.:27:40.

all politics these days is like this. It enables them to cut them

:27:41.:27:48.

more finally. You think all politics is coalition politics, you think

:27:49.:27:52.

they have to put together these groups of people, not that the Lib

:27:53.:27:59.

Dems will always be in power? No, and if you listen to the coverage

:28:00.:28:04.

these days you might think it is about grumpy old men on the one hand

:28:05.:28:10.

with Guardian readers on the other. It is far more complicated than

:28:11.:28:14.

that, there is a lot of churning going on underneath which is driven

:28:15.:28:21.

by people's value systems. A lot of this has been pioneered in the

:28:22.:28:25.

United States, very sophisticated on their election techniques, and in

:28:26.:28:29.

Britain we are always the first to grab whatever the New Year will is

:28:30.:28:35.

from America. How do you think this will translate to this country? I

:28:36.:28:39.

think it means that if you are target photo you will still get the

:28:40.:28:44.

same of leaflets and people calling, but you will probably have different

:28:45.:28:48.

kinds of conversations because people on the other side, the party

:28:49.:28:55.

campaigners, will think they know more about you. Will I know who you

:28:56.:29:01.

are? If I am a party campaigner, will I know, looking down the

:29:02.:29:06.

street, who fits into which category? You will be able to

:29:07.:29:10.

approximate that with all of the other data that you have gathered

:29:11.:29:15.

through polling, or doing local campaigning, that is the idea to

:29:16.:29:19.

make sense of this vast quantity of data people have about voters. We

:29:20.:29:26.

asked our panel to fill in your survey. Nick is optimistic

:29:27.:29:32.

contentment, 99%. He was 1% cosmopolitan critic, which is how he

:29:33.:29:37.

keeps his job at the Guardian. Polly's job could not be more

:29:38.:29:41.

secure, 100% cosmopolitan critics, and Janan Ganesh, optimistic

:29:42.:29:48.

contentment, which is what you would expect from a financial Times

:29:49.:29:54.

columnist. What do you make of this technique? Why are you only 99? It

:29:55.:30:11.

sounds really clever. 95% of the population five years ago voted

:30:12.:30:18.

Labour or the Conservatives. We have got away from that. It is coalition

:30:19.:30:22.

politics. You need sophisticated methods. Presumably

:30:23.:30:37.

Their initial response was that we did not know that these sort of

:30:38.:30:43.

people voted. The next response was, we did not know these people

:30:44.:30:48.

existed. You have all of these very clever method, but unless you know

:30:49.:30:51.

about certain key demographics you are wasting your time. Is it

:30:52.:30:56.

helpful, or imported in modern campaigning, or is it a gimmick? It

:30:57.:31:02.

is useful, it is about attitudes. We have a core, mosaic, we have ways to

:31:03.:31:08.

do its street by street depending on their income or occupation. This

:31:09.:31:11.

increasingly does not tell us very much. It may be different to their

:31:12.:31:18.

income, you can be quite a high error and anxious, quite a low

:31:19.:31:22.

earner and be fuelling aspirational and optimistic about the future. I

:31:23.:31:26.

think this does get at something closer to the issue. Kilmer Polly is

:31:27.:31:31.

right on attitudes, in days gone by, particularly in America,

:31:32.:31:35.

overwhelmingly if you were in the better off segment you voted

:31:36.:31:37.

Republican in the blue-collar worker voted Democrat. In the last

:31:38.:31:44.

election, the richest 200 counties in America voted Democrat, and that

:31:45.:31:49.

is an attitude thing. Income does not tell you how people will vote.

:31:50.:31:56.

There is a huge working-class support for the Republicans. It is

:31:57.:31:59.

unavoidable. At a time when people no longer identify with ideologies

:32:00.:32:04.

or parties or class blocks you have to go with temperament and a

:32:05.:32:08.

lifestyle in Outlook. The danger is that you over segment. I think it

:32:09.:32:15.

was Karl rove who said that the end up with something like 128 segments,

:32:16.:32:20.

according to lifestyle and Outlook. Once you get to that feed it becomes

:32:21.:32:23.

close to useless for the strategist. We have the budget, how

:32:24.:32:28.

do you read the polls? What are they telling us? Wait Mac you to be have

:32:29.:32:33.

seen today have narrowed the beat of labour over the Conservatives. I

:32:34.:32:38.

think you have two week and see if the trend set in over the next few

:32:39.:32:43.

weeks. Osborne and Cameron as an economic team have always had a lead

:32:44.:32:48.

over Miliband and Ed Balls, and this week has always been about economic

:32:49.:32:52.

management. Next week it is about my own personal circumstances, we will

:32:53.:32:59.

see if that is sustained as a trend. We will see how we get on in these

:33:00.:33:03.

segments. Thank you for being with us.

:33:04.:33:08.

It has just gone 11:30am, we say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who

:33:09.:33:10.

leave us now for something Politics Scotland.

:33:11.:33:18.

Good morning and welcome to Sunday Politics Scotland. Coming up, Labour

:33:19.:33:25.

moves to reclaim the ground on social justice from the SNP but is

:33:26.:33:28.

accused of being short on policy detail. Look beyond the sole tyre,

:33:29.:33:37.

look beyond the plague, look beyond the Scotland the Nationalists are

:33:38.:33:40.

building and what they plan to build. Scotland's manufacturers

:33:41.:33:44.

welcomed the budget announcement on reducing the costs of energy. The

:33:45.:33:49.

Scottish government say this increases uncertainty to the

:33:50.:33:53.

renewables industry. In one of's addressed to her party faithful in

:33:54.:33:56.

Perth yesterday was full of criticism of her opponents. Joanne

:33:57.:34:01.

Lamb at's addressed. She said the SNP where is honest and she was

:34:02.:34:08.

criticised for a lack of detail. I will speak to draw had one shortly.

:34:09.:34:19.

-- Speaker Jalan laminate. What reasons do Labour people have

:34:20.:34:26.

to be cheerful? What is there to smile about? Leading a party that is

:34:27.:34:33.

out of power at Westminster and Holyrood is not the happiest lot,

:34:34.:34:38.

but at this conference, Labour 's leaders have sought to present an

:34:39.:34:41.

alternative to the SNP 's independence offer. Nationalists

:34:42.:34:47.

tell us to have the confidence to leave the United Kingdom. I say to

:34:48.:34:51.

Scotland, have the confidence to lead the United Kingdom. Johann

:34:52.:34:59.

Lamont believes that can be done by devolving more power to the Scottish

:35:00.:35:04.

Parliament. All those in favour... The plans of the devolution

:35:05.:35:07.

commission she set up regular analyst endorsed by conference. And

:35:08.:35:12.

when the UK party leader was asked if he would deliver the package he

:35:13.:35:17.

replied... Yes, because it is the right thing to do and it is the

:35:18.:35:22.

right way to combine fairness and redistribution across the United

:35:23.:35:24.

Kingdom with bringing power closer to people in Scotland. What is the

:35:25.:35:30.

big picture Labour has painted here in Paris? If there is a no vote in

:35:31.:35:36.

the independent referendum and Labour wins the next UK general

:35:37.:35:41.

election in 2015 Ed Miliband is promising a package of extra powers

:35:42.:35:45.

for Holyrood including control of housing benefit, responsibility for

:35:46.:35:53.

the first 15p of income tax, the power to raise the top rate of

:35:54.:35:57.

income tax. That is Labour 's alternative to the independence

:35:58.:36:02.

offer. The commission watered down its original proposal to fully

:36:03.:36:08.

devolved income tax. And to avoid what the leadership of Europe would

:36:09.:36:12.

become a race to the bottom in corporation tax competition between

:36:13.:36:17.

Scotland and the rest of the UK, they have rejected transferring that

:36:18.:36:20.

power. Some in the party would have liked them to be bolder. For me it

:36:21.:36:25.

is slightly disappointing in the sense that we could have gone

:36:26.:36:30.

further and initial ideas were thrown around as I thought it would

:36:31.:36:33.

be a more radical package but the main thing is they now have a

:36:34.:36:37.

package, the Lib Dems have a package and be unwitting or the

:36:38.:36:40.

Conservatives. The key thing for the Unionist parties is to make sure we

:36:41.:36:47.

explain what a no vote means. And agreed plan between Labour and the

:36:48.:36:50.

other prounion parties is unlikely. The shadow Foreign Secretary

:36:51.:36:56.

believes Labour has the right offer. New powers on taxation and welfare

:36:57.:37:00.

and democratic powers we are again the party of Scottish home rule.

:37:01.:37:03.

That is not the comfortable lesson for the Nationalists and I believe

:37:04.:37:07.

it is a winning formula for Scottish liver. That will be tested in the

:37:08.:37:12.

referendum campaign. In which those in favour of independence will argue

:37:13.:37:16.

the additional powers a yes vote would deliver are needed to make

:37:17.:37:19.

Scotland a wealthier and fairer country. Labour said that can be

:37:20.:37:25.

achieved by returning their party to government and Holyrood and

:37:26.:37:30.

Westminster. The Nationalists say my country, right or wrong. We see, my

:37:31.:37:39.

country, we will rate the wrongs. Wedding back power tends to make

:37:40.:37:43.

politicians cheerful, for the time being Johann Lamont will have to

:37:44.:37:47.

settle for winning a party round to a more powers plan and running an

:37:48.:37:55.

ovation from conference. The Scottish Labour leader joins me

:37:56.:37:59.

from the party conference. Good afternoon. You said yesterday that

:38:00.:38:05.

the Nationalists had failed to distribute wealth from rich to poor,

:38:06.:38:10.

what are your plans to do that? We have said over the next period we

:38:11.:38:14.

are going to look at how we invest in education, health and protection

:38:15.:38:19.

of our older people. Keep people secure and work and throughout the

:38:20.:38:22.

process we will make sure that we do address need but be very clear, we

:38:23.:38:27.

are on the road to 2016 in our manifesto, we made very clear our

:38:28.:38:33.

spending proposals. You said the hundred million you would generally

:38:34.:38:37.

only 50p rate of income tax would go to the NHS. That benefits everyone

:38:38.:38:41.

so there is nothing redistributive about that. What other measures are

:38:42.:38:46.

you likely to bring forward? With respect there is always a balance.

:38:47.:38:50.

What we said was that with the hundred million pounds Regal said

:38:51.:38:53.

that was not much money but we made the point that you could have 3000

:38:54.:38:59.

nurses. But ahead of 2016 we will make very clear what our spending

:39:00.:39:03.

proposals are. We will invest in the health service or everyone

:39:04.:39:05.

benefits... That does not specifically help people. I agree

:39:06.:39:12.

with you, I am seeing that in any spending decisions there are things

:39:13.:39:15.

that you will spend, clearly the health service is a good example of

:39:16.:39:20.

how you meet need where it arises. We also have said that the

:39:21.:39:24.

medication policy we must look at second chance education. We have

:39:25.:39:29.

140,000 places out of our college sector in the last period. If you

:39:30.:39:33.

invest in that not only do you support people who have perhaps feel

:39:34.:39:36.

that schools a number of reasons but you skilled people are in a way that

:39:37.:39:39.

business is telling us they require. That is the balance. We will make

:39:40.:39:43.

sure everyone knows our spending proposals ahead of 2016. Those who

:39:44.:39:49.

fall into the 50p tax rate make up half of 1% of the population. When

:39:50.:39:55.

it comes to the rich in this context is it's just that group you are

:39:56.:40:00.

talking about? What we said is that we made a specific commitment on the

:40:01.:40:05.

50p tax rate. I am surprised that the First Minister is able to commit

:40:06.:40:08.

to big business that he will cut corporation tax by 3p on the pound.

:40:09.:40:13.

I am asking you who you deem to be rich. He does not feel he can make

:40:14.:40:19.

that commitment. He can't make that commitment on income tax. That is

:40:20.:40:23.

surprising. What we have also said is that in relation to this the

:40:24.:40:27.

people in Scotland get, who matter how much the, that it is about

:40:28.:40:31.

fairness and we make sure that we can contribute and share that. Above

:40:32.:40:36.

what level of earnings and people expect to pay more tax under Labour?

:40:37.:40:42.

With respect I have said the commitment is on 50p. Half of 1% of

:40:43.:40:46.

the working population. What about the rest? It is significant but what

:40:47.:40:52.

we have said about our general tax proposals is that we will bring them

:40:53.:40:56.

forward ahead of 2016. What we are talking about at this conference and

:40:57.:40:59.

it has been a fantastic conference for us, with great excitement in the

:41:00.:41:04.

hall and on the fringe, what we have said is that it is really important

:41:05.:41:07.

that we address these questions more brightly. Why can't you tell us who

:41:08.:41:13.

you regard as being rich in Scotland at this stage? Who has the broadest

:41:14.:41:19.

shoulders? I made a specific commitment on 50p. We believe that

:41:20.:41:25.

is a fair decision. Don't those out with that half of 1% have a right to

:41:26.:41:29.

know whether you are considering taxing them more? And they will, but

:41:30.:41:34.

across Scotland people tell me regardless of the individual income

:41:35.:41:38.

they are concerned about education, secure work for their sons and

:41:39.:41:42.

daughters, and they are anxious about what is happening to their

:41:43.:41:46.

parents. That is not an issue about income, it is about how you for the

:41:47.:41:51.

services. What people need. That is something that across Scotland

:41:52.:41:55.

people understand. Have made a specific commitment on the 50p and

:41:56.:41:58.

will bring forward attacks were Poles head of 2016. I think they

:41:59.:42:02.

stand in very good comparison with the Scottish government who talks

:42:03.:42:07.

about dealing with poverty, takes ?1 billion out of poverty programmes,

:42:08.:42:12.

will permit the tax cut for big business but has nothing to say

:42:13.:42:16.

about what they would do about the tax cut form billionaires that

:42:17.:42:22.

George Osborne delivered. We have a reasonable idea about the priorities

:42:23.:42:27.

of the SNP, but not from you. You talk about Scotland is not being a

:42:28.:42:30.

something for nothing society so do you anticipate the axe falling on

:42:31.:42:35.

benefits that people receive? I don't accept that we have a clear

:42:36.:42:38.

view of the Scottish government priorities, they say one thing and

:42:39.:42:42.

do another. The biggest challenge I would put to them is that they say

:42:43.:42:46.

they believe in equal CDs of things that are entirely unconcerned about

:42:47.:42:50.

the consequences at local level of people not being able to access

:42:51.:42:56.

services. But having a care package. In terms of your

:42:57.:43:01.

priorities... I have been very clear that our priorities will always be

:43:02.:43:04.

to meet need and be honest with people. In that spirit of honesty,

:43:05.:43:13.

which NES -- which areas do you feel the axe should follow? Do you

:43:14.:43:17.

believe that free prescriptions in a step too far? Free bus travel?

:43:18.:43:24.

Jewish and he's been paid? With respect, people don't recognise the

:43:25.:43:27.

way that you are describing this conversation. I am not talking about

:43:28.:43:32.

an axe falling, I am talking about tough times, how do we make sure

:43:33.:43:35.

those most in need get the support they can? We have a bus pass but no

:43:36.:43:41.

bus. The prescriptions by people travel to England for cancer drugs.

:43:42.:43:45.

As one understands that in tough times we must look at what our

:43:46.:43:49.

priorities are. We are looking at all of these things but we start

:43:50.:43:53.

from a basic principle of understanding what people really

:43:54.:43:57.

need and what their concerns are and that is how we are looking at this.

:43:58.:44:04.

Are looking at these things... We are talking about the Scottish

:44:05.:44:06.

government that says everything is perfect except the things over which

:44:07.:44:09.

we have no control and somehow everything will be sorted in the

:44:10.:44:13.

future. People understand these are tough times and we must treat them

:44:14.:44:17.

with respect. Avenue commitment to the crew that we talked about

:44:18.:44:21.

yesterday, do you support the benefits cap proposed at

:44:22.:44:24.

Westminster? You said we want the welfare system that is there,

:44:25.:45:03.

want a limit, the managing limit on welfare. The individual needs and

:45:04.:45:12.

should be met. This is not about an individual cap. There will be an

:45:13.:45:17.

important benefit coming to Scotland. One of the opportunities

:45:18.:45:22.

is to look at the way in which the Housing benefit is abused by rogue

:45:23.:45:26.

private landlords. They not only provide good tenancies for those

:45:27.:45:30.

living in their properties, do not manage those tendencies and there

:45:31.:45:33.

are some things consequences for our order communities, that is a huge

:45:34.:45:37.

opportunity for us and about making sure our wealth is spent will

:45:38.:45:41.

meeting need. We don't accept the division that the Tories want to

:45:42.:45:44.

create that somehow there is a world where there are people who work in

:45:45.:45:48.

people who shirk. The Scottish government know that, to be fair to

:45:49.:45:52.

them. On your plans that you announce that this week, you wrote

:45:53.:45:58.

back on your plans of one year ago for full devolution of income tax.

:45:59.:46:01.

Was that vetoed by Ed Balls? Absolutely not. Video concerns? What

:46:02.:46:10.

we have said to you that in the devolution commission be said that

:46:11.:46:14.

we were minded to devolve all income tax and then we said this would not

:46:15.:46:18.

be to the detriment of the people of Scotland. We have spent the past

:46:19.:46:22.

year looking at that in one of the things that emerges very strongly is

:46:23.:46:25.

that there is a balance to be struck. At what point do you take

:46:26.:46:32.

too much risk? What are the benefits of being part of the United Kingdom,

:46:33.:46:37.

we share a benefits and risk and resources. I think people understand

:46:38.:46:41.

that. Equally, there is uneven growth in the economy, for example

:46:42.:46:46.

in London, this can be redistributed along the United Kingdom and we want

:46:47.:46:52.

the benefit for that we want to find out what is the balance and ensure

:46:53.:46:55.

fiscal accountability that matches the degree of political devolution

:46:56.:46:59.

but at the same time does not turn our face away from that

:47:00.:47:02.

redistribution of the United Kingdom which protectors in tough times. We

:47:03.:47:06.

have the balance absolutely right. I am absolutely confident going

:47:07.:47:09.

forward that these strengthening of the Scottish Parliament, being

:47:10.:47:15.

strong inside the United Kingdom, is the balance the people of Scotland

:47:16.:47:19.

need. If there is a Labour government after the next general

:47:20.:47:22.

election, would you work with the Tories and Lib Dems on their plans

:47:23.:47:28.

for further devolution? This is an interesting discussion, indeed

:47:29.:47:31.

currently we work with our colleagues in Better Together. We

:47:32.:47:34.

have decided that we will put aside party division and separation on the

:47:35.:47:40.

one thing that we agree on, which is about Scotland standing strong in

:47:41.:47:43.

the United Kingdom. People will combat. I made two points. -- people

:47:44.:47:51.

welcome that. I said I would never turn my face away from co-operation

:47:52.:47:55.

if we can achieve it, and I believe it is important for the country. So

:47:56.:47:59.

does that mean that your announcement may not be the final

:48:00.:48:03.

version of what we get? I would never create a false agreement in

:48:04.:48:07.

order to get us past September because we must be honest and act in

:48:08.:48:10.

good faith with the people of Scotland. When we can agree we

:48:11.:48:14.

shall, where we can't we can people not pretend. There are some things

:48:15.:48:18.

in this adamant we medically on, whether it is representation of the

:48:19.:48:22.

Barnett formula, whatever. But what we did this weekend is identifying

:48:23.:48:27.

the Labour proposals to the power of a Scottish Parliament and don't

:48:28.:48:31.

forget some of the key elements that may be of less interest to the

:48:32.:48:35.

commentators, the key elements of this is for example simple issues.

:48:36.:48:41.

The fact that in Scotland we have a disproportionate number of working

:48:42.:48:44.

people who go to work and support their families and end up injured.

:48:45.:48:48.

We will enforce health and safety. And make sure we address that gap.

:48:49.:48:59.

Devolution is a U make a difference to the lives of ordinary people.

:49:00.:49:03.

Some people interpreted what you said about the First Minister as an

:49:04.:49:06.

attack on him for not having children but bringing in child

:49:07.:49:10.

care, new childcare policies. Why did you make your speech so

:49:11.:49:16.

personal? Absolutely not. I need a simple point. I have never heard the

:49:17.:49:20.

First Minister take about -- talk about childcare. I have campaigned

:49:21.:49:25.

for childcare all of my political life and my poor is that what

:49:26.:49:28.

happened with the burst Minister is that he has been told he does not go

:49:29.:49:32.

down well with women and he therefore creates a policy about

:49:33.:49:35.

childcare. That felt cynical to me and I don't think it is appropriate.

:49:36.:49:40.

Now we discover his childcare proposal is only a work in progress,

:49:41.:49:45.

it is not a commitment to people in Scotland. People do not like that

:49:46.:49:51.

kind of cynicism. Thank you for joining us from Perth.

:49:52.:49:56.

This week's budget was hailed by the Chancellor as containing measures to

:49:57.:49:58.

enable the country's "makers and doers." He said he wanted UK

:49:59.:50:02.

industry to be more competitive and to that end George Osborne announced

:50:03.:50:05.

a freeze on one green levy on our energy bills. It could save each

:50:06.:50:09.

household up to ?50 a year by 2020 and has been welcomed by business

:50:10.:50:13.

leaders. It was part of a wider package to help cut energy costs for

:50:14.:50:16.

manufacturers but what do those measures tell us about the country's

:50:17.:50:19.

commitment to renewable energy? Megan Paterson reports.

:50:20.:50:21.

Green levies are the government's way of making companies pay out for

:50:22.:50:25.

what they put into the atmosphere. So if you are a business run lion

:50:26.:50:29.

phone call or gas burning, you will pay the price for pollution. --

:50:30.:50:34.

e-business reliant on coal or gas burning. Our steelmakers, chemical

:50:35.:50:39.

plants, paper mills, and other heavy energy users a cup 35% of our

:50:40.:50:44.

manufacturing exports and employ half a million people. This scheme

:50:45.:50:48.

helps the companies most at risk of leaving to remain in the UK. That

:50:49.:50:53.

support has been well received by Scotland's heavy industries. It has

:50:54.:50:57.

been a positive budget that has demonstrated for the first time in a

:50:58.:51:00.

long time that the Government is willing to actually do something to

:51:01.:51:05.

stimulate manufacturing growth. And it addresses an issue of lack of

:51:06.:51:08.

competitiveness with other European countries. Especially lack of

:51:09.:51:13.

competitiveness with the USA, where the energy element of course is

:51:14.:51:19.

significantly advantageous for companies exporting into Europe from

:51:20.:51:23.

the US. The main measures include the phasing of the carbon support

:51:24.:51:27.

rate, the tax on businesses emitting CO2 was introduced last April. This

:51:28.:51:32.

year, Mr Osborne confirmed it will be frozen from 2016 but at the end

:51:33.:51:37.

of the decade. Government compensation to offset the carbon

:51:38.:51:40.

rate for businesses were due to come to an end next year. It has now been

:51:41.:51:45.

extended until 2020, and George Osborne says there will be more

:51:46.:51:48.

financial help available for energy intensive industries. There was no

:51:49.:51:52.

reduction in investment in renewable energy in the budget, but there is

:51:53.:51:57.

some concern the measures signal a change in the government's green

:51:58.:52:01.

agenda. This Government came in with a very clear promise that it would

:52:02.:52:05.

be the greenest Government ever. There is very little evidence of

:52:06.:52:08.

that in actual practical terms because every time we see the

:52:09.:52:12.

Government and I'm something, it rolled back on the fuel price

:52:13.:52:17.

escalator, it reduces the target for carbon reduction. And now it has

:52:18.:52:23.

reduced its carbon price escalator for using carbon in generating

:52:24.:52:27.

electricity. All of these price increases are trying to send a

:52:28.:52:30.

message to industry and citizens that we need to be more efficient in

:52:31.:52:35.

using carbon. We must find weight of -- we must find ways of capturing

:52:36.:52:43.

carbon. I think there is no environmental benefit to having a

:52:44.:52:46.

steelworks or a chemical plant in the UK closed down just to reopen in

:52:47.:52:52.

Belgium or Germany or France, and emit exactly the same amount of

:52:53.:52:55.

pollution in those countries. The most important thing we can do is to

:52:56.:53:00.

make sure that more of the power that those factories are consuming

:53:01.:53:07.

is generated from renewable sources. The Scottish Government disagrees,

:53:08.:53:10.

claiming that the policy changes add uncertainty to the energy industry,

:53:11.:53:17.

and industry experts say that uncertainty could affect investment.

:53:18.:53:22.

There are 34,000 people employed in the industry, that could double by

:53:23.:53:25.

2020 but only if we get the policy right. That is why the Government

:53:26.:53:29.

are sending this long-term signal. If the Government change their mind,

:53:30.:53:33.

investors have to go back to the drawing board and rethink what is

:53:34.:53:37.

best for them. There has been no sign of investors changing plans

:53:38.:53:40.

yet, but with the Scottish Government reasserting its

:53:41.:53:43.

commitment to renewables, and the referendum on the horizon, it would

:53:44.:53:48.

seem future energy plans like prices are far from fixed.

:53:49.:53:54.

I'm joined now in the studio by MSP Patrick Harvie from the Scottish

:53:55.:53:57.

Green Party, and from Aberdeen by Conservative MSP Alex Johnstone.

:53:58.:54:01.

Good afternoon. Patrick Harvie, do you welcome the moves from the

:54:02.:54:05.

Chancellor on green levies? Can you guess just how much I welcome them?

:54:06.:54:11.

No. The Chancellor is very clearly enacting the slogan that David

:54:12.:54:14.

Cameron was rumoured to have used in Downing Street, which is to cut the

:54:15.:54:23.

green expletive deleted. The removal of the enterprise investment scheme

:54:24.:54:26.

from renewable energy industries, the additional subsidies to heavily

:54:27.:54:29.

polluting industries, whether domestic industries or indeed long

:54:30.:54:33.

haul aviation gets an additional subsidy. The tinkering about the

:54:34.:54:39.

edges with the signals, the price signals that are supported to

:54:40.:54:43.

support investment in renewables, at the same time as saying he wants

:54:44.:54:48.

certainty for investors we can extract every last drop of oil, this

:54:49.:54:53.

is clearly a Government which has decided that the greenest Government

:54:54.:54:57.

ever was just a bad joke. On the carbon price floor, it will reduce

:54:58.:55:01.

our energy bills, we are told it could reduce them by ?50 per year

:55:02.:55:06.

for people by 2020. Why should consumers bear the burden? There is

:55:07.:55:11.

no guarantee that that will be passed onto individual household

:55:12.:55:14.

electricity consumers. Energy companies will be under pressure to

:55:15.:55:18.

do that. They have been for a long time and they don't always do that.

:55:19.:55:22.

It will save heavily polluting industries some money. The carbon

:55:23.:55:26.

price floor is not the only way to send a signal. There is a reasonable

:55:27.:55:30.

case for getting rid of it and using that money in a different way. If it

:55:31.:55:35.

is going to be there, it is clear that it only can deliver carbon

:55:36.:55:38.

savings if it is a long-term consistent approach. But it is

:55:39.:55:43.

regressive, isn't it? They are adding this levy to people's bills,

:55:44.:55:47.

those who are on the lowest incomes hardest hit. The best way to support

:55:48.:55:51.

people on lowest incomes to make sure they are living in really

:55:52.:55:55.

high-quality, well insulated homes that don't require them to use up

:55:56.:55:58.

lots of energy and money to heat their home. There is a case against

:55:59.:56:06.

the carbon price floor as a mechanism. There could be better

:56:07.:56:09.

ways of spending the money. If that policy is going to continue instead

:56:10.:56:13.

of being scrapped, it is only going to deliver benefits if it is

:56:14.:56:15.

gradually increased over the long-term instead of frozen. Alex

:56:16.:56:19.

Johnstone, those who work in the renewable industry say that they

:56:20.:56:22.

operate these changes by the Chancellor might have a bad effect

:56:23.:56:26.

on cleaner ways of generating energy. Is that a price worth paying

:56:27.:56:31.

so that we can all save ?50 in the next five years? They should not

:56:32.:56:41.

worry. There has no -- be no cut in the support. But we have to

:56:42.:56:45.

recognise here is that the effect of the carbon floor price on some of

:56:46.:56:51.

our large enemy consumers -- energy consumers would have been twofold.

:56:52.:56:55.

We had continued upward trajectory of the carbon price floor it would

:56:56.:56:58.

have made business in Britain more expensive then it would be in other

:56:59.:57:06.

European countries. Simply exporting those carbon emissions to other

:57:07.:57:09.

European countries and at the same time export jobs, that is at a time

:57:10.:57:12.

when the British economy is showing genuine signs of recovery. We need

:57:13.:57:16.

to actually foster that recovery to entrench our position in terms of

:57:17.:57:21.

carbon emissions and by giving this level of confidence, this level of

:57:22.:57:26.

predictability to the carbon floor price over the next decade, the

:57:27.:57:29.

Chancellor has sent out the right signals. This particular policy was

:57:30.:57:34.

only introduced in the last couple of years, it should not have, it

:57:35.:57:37.

should not have come as a surprise that by introducing it, prices would

:57:38.:57:42.

go up year on year. It does not show much faith in the policy, doesn't

:57:43.:57:46.

it? The policy is found, the Government has decided to pursue it

:57:47.:57:53.

in a different way. What we must remember is that we must remain

:57:54.:57:58.

positive. To remain competitive we have to ensure we are doing roughly

:57:59.:58:02.

the same thing to our industries at roughly the same time. We need to

:58:03.:58:07.

reduce carbon emissions at an international game, that should be

:58:08.:58:10.

obvious to everyone. There is nothing to be gained by Britain

:58:11.:58:13.

sibling making an example of itself and destroying its own industry and

:58:14.:58:18.

destroying jobs simply to prove a point when all we are doing is

:58:19.:58:21.

exporting the emissions and the jobs as well. Is taxation the best way of

:58:22.:58:27.

encouraging more development in the renewables and other sectors? I

:58:28.:58:32.

would love to see a Government, either in Scotland or the UK, put

:58:33.:58:39.

its weight behind a drive to produce a publicly owned or community owned

:58:40.:58:42.

large-scale renewable energy industry, so that we can start

:58:43.:58:47.

investing with public money and generate profits that come back to

:58:48.:58:50.

the public. That does not need to be a monolithic approach. It could be

:58:51.:58:55.

part of a mixed market with public, community owned and private sector

:58:56.:58:58.

investors as well but that is not going to happen from the UK

:58:59.:59:01.

Government. I don't expect that to happen. There are approaches to have

:59:02.:59:07.

a market and this kind of corporate welfare is review the likely little

:59:08.:59:10.

bit of money here are there to give companies incentives. If what they

:59:11.:59:14.

were doing is writing a cheque for 20 million quid or whatever the

:59:15.:59:17.

equivalent is of the carbon price floor, and seeing two businesses,

:59:18.:59:22.

you will get this money if you stay, invest in this country, support jobs

:59:23.:59:25.

in this country and at the same time reduce your emissions, I am not

:59:26.:59:31.

cover the bowl with corporate welfare is but that wouldn't sure we

:59:32.:59:35.

get the investment. The budget him in the same day the Scottish

:59:36.:59:37.

Government give consent to very large wind farm operations in the

:59:38.:59:41.

Moray Firth. Is there not an argument that says this industry has

:59:42.:59:45.

now reached critical mass and it is time for it to stand on its own two

:59:46.:59:49.

feet? On shore, we are close to that. The prices getting very close

:59:50.:59:55.

to what they call grid parity, were effectively it does not need

:59:56.:59:57.

additional support. This is how an industry develops. It gets to that

:59:58.:00:01.

point and then it can fly on its own. Offshore wind is going to take

:00:02.:00:05.

a while to get to that point, it will take more investment and

:00:06.:00:09.

certainty and clarity from the Government around issues like the

:00:10.:00:12.

carbon price. Issues like regulation. This is the same

:00:13.:00:16.

argument we hear from the Tories, the Liberals, the Labour and SNP in

:00:17.:00:21.

relation to the oil industry. They show great commitment to extracting

:00:22.:00:24.

every last drop of the substance that is causing this problem in the

:00:25.:00:27.

first place. They are not showing the same commitment and clarity for

:00:28.:00:32.

renewable energy. Woodlock told that the Government at Westminster was

:00:33.:00:36.

going to be the greenest ever. -- we were told that the Government. But

:00:37.:00:40.

now they are backing off on one of the main planks of its green policy.

:00:41.:00:45.

Does this tell us that they are more concerned with the fortunes of their

:00:46.:00:47.

election than they are with the environment? Learn that the

:00:48.:00:52.

electoral cycle will always play a part. But this is not evidence that

:00:53.:00:58.

the UK Government is backing off from its green priorities. It

:00:59.:01:02.

continues to support renewable energy. There has been no reduction

:01:03.:01:06.

in that. What we are talking about in terms of the carbon price floor

:01:07.:01:10.

is limiting the rise rather than suggesting it should be reduced.

:01:11.:01:13.

That is not the only thing that has been changed. Some companies are

:01:14.:01:19.

exempt from renewable obligations, which was designed to support the

:01:20.:01:25.

renewables sector. This is about making the economy greener. This is

:01:26.:01:31.

not an economic suicide mission. It is not our duty to destroy industry

:01:32.:01:34.

in this country and simply export jobs along with emissions in order

:01:35.:01:39.

to try to achieve some personal satisfaction here. The Government

:01:40.:01:44.

has a duty to ensure that industry is coerced gently toward achieving

:01:45.:01:50.

all it can, but also at the same time allowed to expand and create

:01:51.:01:53.

the jobs it can and remember, these changes have a disproportionate

:01:54.:01:57.

effect in areas like Scotland, Wales and the North of England where these

:01:58.:02:03.

taxis have had the most significant impact. We are saving jobs and

:02:04.:02:06.

communities where they are essential. Thank you both. We're not

:02:07.:02:13.

going to meet these targets if we see this approach continue. Thank

:02:14.:02:19.

you both very much indeed. Coming up after the news, our look

:02:20.:02:22.

at the week ahead. You're watching Sunday Politics Scotland. Now it's

:02:23.:02:26.

time to cross to the news from Reporting Scotland with Andrew Kerr.

:02:27.:02:28.

Good afternoon. Police are investigating what's being described

:02:29.:02:32.

as a serious incident at a house in Thornton in Fife. An ambulance crew

:02:33.:02:35.

alerted officers yesterday evening at 7.50pm when they were called to a

:02:36.:02:42.

house. More details are expected to be released shortly.

:02:43.:02:48.

A new report says the Treasury's reasons for rejecting a

:02:49.:02:50.

post-independence currency union are "unsubstantiated". The Scottish

:02:51.:02:55.

Government has welcomed the analysis by Professor Leslie Young. The

:02:56.:02:58.

businessman, Sir Tom Hunter, commissioned the report. Better

:02:59.:03:02.

Together says the analysis is flawed - and the First Minister must tell

:03:03.:03:08.

voters his Plan B. In the next hour, thousands of

:03:09.:03:12.

Aberdeen fans will pack the city's Union Street to welcome the Scottish

:03:13.:03:16.

League Cup trophy parade. The Dons beat Inverness 4-2 last weekend in a

:03:17.:03:22.

penalty shoot out. Fans will find out this afternoon if the "Don't You

:03:23.:03:26.

Want Me" song has topped the charts - made popular by the "Peter Pawlett

:03:27.:03:31.

Baby" lyrics. Now let's take a look at the weather

:03:32.:03:33.

with Judith. Now let's take a look

:03:34.:03:38.

Good afternoon. It is not often I can come on and say it is a gorgeous

:03:39.:03:41.

afternoon on the cards across much of the country, Spring chancing.

:03:42.:03:44.

Someone took showers across more northerly parts but they will become

:03:45.:03:48.

more confined to the Northern Isles, eventually clearing. -- spring

:03:49.:03:54.

sunshine. The wind will ease down and size of around seven or eight

:03:55.:03:58.

Celsius. As we head into the evening, we lose any showers in the

:03:59.:04:00.

north so it will be dry across-the-board. A cold night under

:04:01.:04:04.

those clear skies, widespread frost and the winds will be light.

:04:05.:04:06.

and the That is all for the moment. I will

:04:07.:04:10.

hand you back to Gary. Thanks, Andrew. Now in a moment,

:04:11.:04:15.

we'll be discussing the big events coming up this week at Holyrood. But

:04:16.:04:19.

first, let's take a look back at the Week in Sixty seconds.

:04:20.:04:26.

With six months until the independence referendum, the former

:04:27.:04:29.

Liberal Democrat leader Charles Kennedy called for no campaigners to

:04:30.:04:33.

be more positive. And for a more coherent blueprint for further

:04:34.:04:36.

devolution to be agreed before the vote. Scottish ministers agreed that

:04:37.:04:40.

opponents needed to be clearer about their plans. In the budget, the

:04:41.:04:43.

Chancellor announced measures to help pensioners, Sabres to support

:04:44.:04:48.

investment in North Sea oil and the. There was good news for another

:04:49.:04:52.

industry as well. Scottish whiskey is a huge British success story. To

:04:53.:04:58.

support that industry instead of raising duties on Scotch whiskey and

:04:59.:05:02.

other spirits, I am today going to freeze them. It was revealed

:05:03.:05:07.

Scottish police and the UK security agencies have held discussions about

:05:08.:05:10.

plans for sharing intelligence if there is a Yes vote. Security and

:05:11.:05:14.

intelligence is currently reserved for Westminster. Falkirk MP Eric

:05:15.:05:18.

Joyce admitted a breach of the peace at Edinburgh Airport last year. He

:05:19.:05:22.

says he is considering whether to continue as an independent MP.

:05:23.:05:28.

It's time to have a look at the stories that are making the news

:05:29.:05:37.

today and in the week ahead. I am joined this week from Perth by

:05:38.:05:42.

two journalists, David Clegg from the Daily Record and Tom Gordon from

:05:43.:05:46.

the Sunday Herald. Good afternoon. As you are in Perth, let's start

:05:47.:05:49.

with your analysis of what Johann Lamont had to say yesterday. What

:05:50.:05:54.

did you make of the speech? I thought it was a pretty strong

:05:55.:05:58.

speech. One of the problems with the referendum campaign for Labour so

:05:59.:06:01.

far has been it has not spoken to their base and we have seen that in

:06:02.:06:05.

the fact that almost one quarter of Labour supporters in 2011 were

:06:06.:06:07.

planning to vote for independence. They need to give them positive

:06:08.:06:11.

reasons to vote no in the referendum. To think a Labour

:06:12.:06:15.

Government in Hollywood will be something they want to see. They

:06:16.:06:18.

have started to move towards doing that. Did we get that positivity? We

:06:19.:06:24.

heard criticism of the SNP, but very little in the way of specifics on

:06:25.:06:28.

policy from Labour for the period ahead. That's right. It was a

:06:29.:06:34.

positioning speech for the referendum. I agree, it has been

:06:35.:06:43.

driven by Labour voters. It was a speech given by anxiety rather than

:06:44.:06:48.

self-confidence. I think a sign that also was a pretty relentless attack

:06:49.:06:52.

she made on SMP and nationalists and Alex Salmond personally. It did not

:06:53.:06:57.

seem a positive speech. Does that work for the wider electorate, that

:06:58.:07:01.

attack on the SNP? Opinion polls tell us the First Minister's

:07:02.:07:03.

approval ratings are still pretty high. It is part of a wider Better

:07:04.:07:10.

Together campaign strategy to undermine the honesty and integrity

:07:11.:07:14.

of the First Minister. A lot of what is being asked of voters in the

:07:15.:07:18.

referendum is to take a bit of a leap in the dark, and if they can

:07:19.:07:20.

undermine Alex Hammond as someone who you would not trust, that is the

:07:21.:07:27.

tragedy they are pursuing. How it works with voters outside the wider

:07:28.:07:32.

public, I am not sure. -- that is the strategy they are pursuing.

:07:33.:07:35.

There is a great deal of dispute on these issues on currency and unit

:07:36.:07:39.

and people are having to go with who they feel is telling the truth. --

:07:40.:07:46.

currency and Europe. The world's biggest investment fund manager has

:07:47.:07:53.

set out that analysis of Scottish independence. They said it would

:07:54.:07:56.

bring uncertainty, cost and risk. If this significant for another

:07:57.:08:00.

interjection that will reinforce positions? This will have a

:08:01.:08:06.

cumulative effect, it is yet another intervention. This is the world 's

:08:07.:08:12.

largest fund manager, $.5 trillion worth of assets. What it says will

:08:13.:08:18.

be listened to. It has the phrase kilted securities, the idea that

:08:19.:08:21.

Scotland would have to pay more for raising debt in the international

:08:22.:08:25.

market. It is significant because of the skill of the organisation and it

:08:26.:08:29.

makes the point that Scotland may be better off with its own currency

:08:30.:08:32.

rather than pursuing this ambition of a currency union with the UK that

:08:33.:08:38.

the UK is hostile to. On that issue we have an economics professor

:08:39.:08:42.

disputing the UK Treasury, David Clegg, the reason for refusing a

:08:43.:08:47.

currency union. This is Lesley Young from the University of Beijing

:08:48.:08:50.

saying that the totally position does not stand up to scrutiny. It

:08:51.:08:53.

sounds as though the positions of the main parties are pretty

:08:54.:08:59.

entrenched. Absolutely entrenched that I believe the totally have

:09:00.:09:01.

already said that no matter what this sub report says that there will

:09:02.:09:07.

not be a currency union in the event of the yes for. It is part of the

:09:08.:09:12.

problem that both sides are willing out experts that find their position

:09:13.:09:15.

in this once was financed by Sir Tom Hunter who has attempted to get

:09:16.:09:18.

useful information to the public domain, but you look at this is an

:09:19.:09:25.

eminent academic and a well respected economist but at the same

:09:26.:09:27.

time he is saying something that is exactly different to what the

:09:28.:09:33.

Blackrock report as saying. Who do you believe? Indeed had on that

:09:34.:09:36.

subject people are beginning to make up their minds as we get closer and

:09:37.:09:41.

closer to the referendum. Tom Gordon, a poll said a narrowing of

:09:42.:09:44.

the gap between yes and no is happening, it said that if you take

:09:45.:09:49.

out the don't knows you have 45% supporting yes and 55 supporting

:09:50.:09:55.

now. It is a very interesting Paul, another poll that shows the

:09:56.:09:59.

direction of travel for the Yes campaign, the polls are narrowing.

:10:00.:10:02.

There seems to be no doubt about that. We talk about wavy lines in

:10:03.:10:09.

the polls, that there is an ebb and flow of polling. But I don't think

:10:10.:10:12.

they can stick by this position any more. It is very clear that support

:10:13.:10:16.

for the union is eroding support for independence is gathering. Very

:10:17.:10:23.

interesting as well, this poll shows that people are becoming less

:10:24.:10:26.

sceptical about the impact of independence on the economy. Only 5%

:10:27.:10:32.

of people think it will be bad for the economy rather than good for the

:10:33.:10:37.

economy. That gap of pessimistic eggs of the mist was 17 points just

:10:38.:10:43.

six months ago. Now it is almost neck and neck. Very significant. We

:10:44.:10:47.

had Henry McLeish and seeing that the no campaign is too negative,

:10:48.:10:51.

good these poll results be a reflection that the public agrees? I

:10:52.:10:57.

think there should be deep concern in the Better Together campaign that

:10:58.:11:00.

this is the case, their strategy is to undermine the economic arguments

:11:01.:11:04.

and they have unloaded a lot of weapons to that cause the last

:11:05.:11:08.

couple of months. All of the businesses that have expressed

:11:09.:11:11.

uncertainties, the Chancellor 's announcement that we have already

:11:12.:11:14.

discussed at what they don't seem to have worked because the polls are

:11:15.:11:19.

moving in the opposite direction. Tom is absolutely right, there can

:11:20.:11:21.

be no doubt that things have tightened. It is not only does poll

:11:22.:11:25.

this morning that has shown that the raft of polls that have shown things

:11:26.:11:30.

closing down. Everyone is the view that the economy will be the

:11:31.:11:33.

decisive factor here and people becoming more confident about the

:11:34.:11:37.

economics of an independent Scotland then those in the no camp should be

:11:38.:11:42.

very concerned. A couple of items in the week ahead, tomorrow Tom Gordon

:11:43.:11:46.

B have Bob Crow's funeral, Tony Benn 's funeral later in the week, the

:11:47.:11:55.

left have lost two big figures. It has indeed, we will not see their

:11:56.:12:00.

like again. There will be a lot more cross-party respect shown for Tony

:12:01.:12:05.

Benn 's funeral on Thursday, Bob Crow was a very much more divisive

:12:06.:12:09.

figure but Ben was regarded as an outstanding parliamentarian by all

:12:10.:12:15.

parties and he has been given the honour of an overnight stay at the

:12:16.:12:19.

except at Westminster, just before the funeral and that was last

:12:20.:12:22.

accorded to Margaret Thatcher as a sign of respect across all parties.

:12:23.:12:27.

On Wednesday we have the first of two debates between Nick Clegg and

:12:28.:12:32.

Nigel Farage. This is a radio debate ahead of their television clash. Is

:12:33.:12:35.

this Nick Clegg fighting for his political life? Yes, I think the

:12:36.:12:41.

Liberal Democrats are in deep trouble, and Nick Clegg is aware of

:12:42.:12:48.

that. It is a desperate, a great sign of desperation that he agreed

:12:49.:12:52.

to this debate with Nigel Farage. The Deputy Prime Minister debating

:12:53.:12:57.

with a man who has no representation in Westminster, the volumes about

:12:58.:13:02.

where he think the political climate is at the minute. It will also be

:13:03.:13:06.

interesting to see how that plays. Sorry to adopt. I wanted to ask Tom

:13:07.:13:12.

Gordon what would a loss of the only Scottish Lib Dem MEP at the European

:13:13.:13:15.

election mean to the Lib Dems in Scotland? We now find out. The

:13:16.:13:22.

general opinion is that your client is toast. It is all about who gets

:13:23.:13:29.

his seat, the SNP UKIP or an extraordinary day but draw the line

:13:30.:13:36.

is probably gone. Thank you both for joining is as tomorrow night Isabel

:13:37.:13:40.

Fraser, one better and myself will be grilling Jim Sellers and George

:13:41.:13:43.

Galloway about their views on independence. That is a new Skype on

:13:44.:13:49.

special at 10:30pm tomorrow. That is all from Sunday politics. Back at

:13:50.:13:52.

the same thing next week. Goodbye.

:13:53.:13:56.

Political magazine presented by Andrew Neil and Andrew Kerr.


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