28/09/2014 Sunday Politics Scotland


28/09/2014

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Morning, folks, and welcome to the Sunday Politics live

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There'll be one less Conservative MP here after Reckless defected

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joins us live from his constituency he's triggered a by-election.

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It's not been the best of starts for the Prime Minister as he arrives

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in Birmingham for the last Tory conference before the election.

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On top of the Reckless defection, a junior Tory minister has resigned

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RAF jets have carried out their first mission over Iraq

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And should we be targeting Syria too?

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Coming up on Sunday Politics Scotland.

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The referendum has prompted a dramatic rise He in political

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engagement, but what where can political parties do to harness not

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And joining me, three of the country's most loyal journalists,

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who sadly have yet to resign or defect to our inferior rivals.

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Nick Watt, Polly Toynbee and Janan Ganesh.

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And, of course, they'll be tweeting throughout the programme.

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And you too can get involved by using the hashtag #BBCSP.

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At the current rate of Tory resignations,

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Mr Cameron could be speaking to an empty hall when he makes his keynote

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address to the Tory conference here in Birmingham tomorrow.

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It's been a classic car crash of a start to the conference, with a UKIP

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defection, a minister shamed into resignation by a sex scandal and

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Ed Miliband's memory lapses now look like a little local difficulty.

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Here's what the Prime Minister had to say

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These things are frustrating and frankly counter-productive and

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rather senseless. If you want to have a European referendum, if you

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want to get the deficit down, if you want to build a stronger Britain

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that we can be proud of, there is only one option, which is to have a

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Conservative government after the next election.

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And Mark Reckless joins me now from Rochester.

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Welcome to the programme. Why did you lie to all your Conservative

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colleagues and mislead those who elected you? Well, I am keeping

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faith with my constituents and keeping my promises to them. You

:03:15.:03:18.

heard the Prime Minister saying that the Conservative led government was

:03:19.:03:21.

dealing with the deficit and cutting immigration. The reality is, we have

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increased the national debt by more in five years than even Labour

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managed in 13, and immigration is back up to the levels we saw under

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Labour. I believe in the promises I made in 2010, and I want to keep my

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words to my electorate, not least to deal with the deficit, cut

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immigration, reform the political system, to localise powers back to

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the community, particularly over house-building. The government has

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broken its word on all those things are. I want to keep my word to my

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voters here, and that is why I have done what I have done, by moving to

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UKIP. You have not kept your words to your Conservative constituency

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chairman. You assured him 48 hours ago that you would not defect, and

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you left his voice mail on the Conservative Party chairman's office

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telephone, missing to come to Birmingham to campaign for the

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Tories. This is your voice mail... I have just picked up your e-mail...

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So, Friday night, telling Grant Shapps you are coming to Birmingham

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to campaign for the Tories. The next day, you are joining UKIP. Why did

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you are a? I sounded a bit more hesitant on that call than I usually

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do, and I am not sure if that was the full conversation. But you

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cannot discuss these things in advance, you have to make a

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decision. I have decided the future of this country is better served by

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UKIP then it is by the Conservative Party under David Cameron. I made a

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lot of promises to my constituents, and I want to keep those promises.

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That is why I am moving to UKIP, so I can deliver the change this

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country really needs. In May of this year, you said that Nigel Farage,

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quote, poses the most serious threat to a Tory victory at the election.

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So, you agree, voting UKIP means a Labour government? I think voting

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UKIP means getting UKIP. While in the past a disproportionate number

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of UKIP people were ex-Conservatives, now, they are

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winning a lot more people, from all parties. People are so disillusioned

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with the political class in Westminster, that they have not

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voted often for a generation. Those are the people Nigel Farage is

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inspiring, and frankly, he has also inspired me. What he has done in the

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last 20 years, building his party, getting people from all walks of

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life, sending up for ordinary people, I think deserves support.

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That is a key reason why I am moving. UKIP are now the agents of

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change. You said it poses them a serious threat to a Tory victory? My

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ambition is not a Tory victory. We made all of these promises in 2010

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as Conservatives, and they have been broken. We now hear from David

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Cameron about English votes for English laws, supported by Nick

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Clegg as well, but that is what we said in our manifesto in 2010, and

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we have done absolutely nothing about it. It is not credible now to

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pretend that you are going to do those things. They have omitted to

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give every Scot ?1600 per year in definitely. If you want to stand up

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for the English taxpayer, and really tackle the debt, then UKIP are the

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party who will do that. But there is nothing principled about this, this

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is just an attempt to save your skin. You said UKIP stopped you

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winning in 2005 - UKIP did not stand in 2010, and you won. You are

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frightened that UKIP would beat you in the next election, this is to

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save your skin to me you think I am doing this because I am frightened,

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you think this is the easy option, to abandon my position in

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Parliament, but my principles on the line? On the contrary, you look at

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MPs who have moved party before, almost none of them have given their

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voters to chance to have a say on what they have done. I am asking

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permission from my voters, and I am moving to UKIP because I believe

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many of the people in my constituency have been let down by a

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Conservative led government, and that what UKIP is saying appeals to

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decent, hard-working people, who want to see real change in our

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country. If they do not agree, then they can vote in a by-election and

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have their say on who they want to be their MP. I am being open and

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honest, giving people a say. I am trying to do the right thing by my

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constituents, and whatever the risk is to me personally, I think it is

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the right thing to do. It is what MPs should be in politics to try and

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do for the people they represent. Your defection, coming after Douglas

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Carswell's, confirms the claim that UKIP is largely a depository for

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disaffected right-wing Tories like yourself, isn't it? On the contrary,

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the number of people I met in Doncaster yesterday was

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extraordinary. When I first went to Conservative conferences 20 years

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ago, there was some enthusiasm for politics, I remember Norman Tebbit

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speaking against Maastricht, people fought they could change things,

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there was real politics. But I do not think you will see that at

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Birmingham this week, it is PR people, lobbyists, corporate, few

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ordinary members of. At Ancaster, people had saved up for months just

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to get the rail ticket to Doncaster. People who believe in UKIP, who

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believe in Nigel Farage, who believe in the team, as agents of change,

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who can actually deal with a political class at Westminster which

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has let able down. We want proper reform to the political system,

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which David Cameron promises but does not deliver. Final question -

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after the next election, the Prime Minister is going to be either David

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Cameron or Ed Miliband, that is the choice, one or the other - who would

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you prefer? Well, what we would prefer is to get the most UKIP

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policies implemented. We want a first rate we want to deal with

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immigration. I asked about who you wanted to be Prime Minister. We will

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look at the circumstances. We need as many UKIP MPs as possible, to

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restore trust in politics. If people vote UKIP, they will get UKIP. How

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serious is this? I think it is very serious. It is the old Tory disease,

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destroyed John Major, and it has been bubbling away again. It is

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beginning to feel like the worst days of Labour in the early nineteen

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eighties. It matters, because people care passionately. It is nothing

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like Labour in the early 1980s, it is bad, but it is nothing like that.

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There are these very strong strands. People like David Davis

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writing a large piece in the Daily Mail attacking the leader on the

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first day of the conference. That is the kind of thing that Labour used

:11:04.:11:07.

to do. That is what David Davis does all the time! But this is authentic

:11:08.:11:13.

in the sense that there is a real, genuine dispute about Europe. Some

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of us were not around in the 1980s, but I imagine it is pretty bad.

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There is the short-term problem of the by-election they might lose, the

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media problem of the general election which they cannot win if

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UKIP remain anywhere near their current level of support. But in

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many ways the longer term question is the most pressing, which is, does

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it make sense for the Conservative Party to remain one party, or would

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it not be better for the hard-core of 20-30 intransigent Eurosceptics

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to essentially join UKIP or form their own party? At least the

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Conservatives would become more internally manageable. And probably

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lose the next election. Probably, yes. That is what you are advising

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them? If the reward is to have a coherent party in 15 years' time. It

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is just as well you are a columnist, not a party strategist. I

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was an anorak in the 1980s, who watched the Labour conference on the

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TV. Were you wearing your anorak? Of course I was, that is how sad I am.

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But once again the crisis from UKIP has forced the Prime Minister to

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step in an even more Eurosceptic direction. Said on television what

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he was trying not to say, which is that if he does not get his way in

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the European negotiations, he will recommend to the British people that

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we should go. He began by saying, as I have always said, and when they

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say that, you know they are saying something new. He basically said,

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Britain should not stay if it is not in Britain's interests. I think this

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is big stakes for both the Tories and four UKIP. The Tories are able

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to write off Clacton. Rochester is number 271 on the UKIP friendly

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list. If the Tories win it, big moment for them. If UKIP lose it,

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this strategy of various will be facing a bit of a setback.

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To what extent are Mark Reckless's views shared by Conservative

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The Sunday Politics commissioned an exclusive poll of Conservative

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Pollsters ComRes spoke to over 1,000 councillors -

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that's almost an eighth of their council base - and Eleanor Garnier

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There is not a single party conference at the seaside this year,

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and Sunday Politics could not get through them all without a trip to

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the coast. So here we are on the shore in Sussex. There are plenty of

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Conservative councillors here, and Tory MPs as well, but one challenge

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they all face is UKIP, who have got their sights on coastal towns.

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Places like Worthing East and surer and, with high numbers of

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pensioners, providing rich pickings for UKIP. In West Sussex, the Tories

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run the county council, but UKIP are the official opposition, with ten

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councillors. We cannot lose any more ground to UKIP. If we lose any more

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ground, if you look at the way it has swung from us to them, it is

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getting near to being the middle point, where we might start losing

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seats which we have always regarded as safe seats. So, it has got to be

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stemmed, it cannot go any further. Our exclusive survey looked at the

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policy areas where the Conservatives are vulnerable to UKIP. If an EU

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Referendum Bill is called tomorrow, 45% say they would vote to leave,

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39% would stay in. Asked about immigration...

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It was those issues, Europe and immigration, that Mark Reckless said

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were the head of his decision. I promised to cut immigration while

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treating people fairly and humanely. I cannot keep that promise as a

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Conservative, I can keep it as UKIP. When asked if Conservative

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councillors would like an electoral pact with UKIP in the run-up to the

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general election, one third said they support the idea. 63% are

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opposed and 7% don't know. Conservative councillors who left

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the party to join UKIP say it wasn't easy. I left because basically the

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Conservatives left me. I saw it as a difficult decision to change, but

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what I was seeing with UKIP was freed. Me being able to speak for my

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residents. Back to our survey and on climate change 49% said it was

:16:12.:16:15.

happening, but that humans are not to blame. Our survey showed that 60%

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think David Cameron was wrong to pursue legalising gay marriage, with

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31% saying it was the right thing to do and 9% not sure. In Worthing

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councillors said gay marriage was divisive. That has really been an

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issue here, it might have damaged the party slightly, and I think in a

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way by setting a rule like that, it is a very religious thing and it is

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almost trying to play God to make that decision. But some of the

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party's toughest decisions have been over the economy. 56% in our survey

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thought the spending cuts the Government has so far announced have

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not gone far enough. 6% were not sure. They are prepared for

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difficult decisions, but local activists say the party's voice must

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be clearer. I think the message has to be more forceful, it has to be

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specially targeted to the ex-Conservative voters who now vote

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UKIP, especially in this area, the vast majority of UKIP people are

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disillusioned Conservatives. The message has to be loud and strong,

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come back and we are the party to give you what you want. With just

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eight months until the general election, the pressure is on and

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local Conservatives are searching for clues to help their party stem

:17:50.:17:55.

the flow of defections. Joining me now is William Hague, the former

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Foreign Secretary and the Leader of the House of Commons.

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Tories like Mark Reckless are defecting to UKIP because they don't

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trust the party leadership to deliver on Europe, do they? They

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believe people like you and David Cameron will campaign to stay in and

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they are right. They said before they defected that people should

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vote Conservative to get a referendum on Europe, and that is

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right of course. The only way to get a referendum is to do that and this

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is the point, the people should decide. However a future government

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decides it will campaign, it should be the people of the country who

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decide. Can you say to our viewers this morning that is not enough

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powers are repatriated back to Britain, you would want to come

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out, can you say that? Our objective is to get those powers and stay in.

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The answer to the question is I won't be deciding, David Cameron

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won't be deciding, you the voters will be deciding. But you have to

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give us your view. If you don't get enough powers back, would you vote

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to come out and recommended? Our objective is to get those powers and

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be able to stay in. You just get endless speculation years in

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advance. I will decide at the time how I will vote. Surely that is the

:19:29.:19:32.

rational position for everyone to take but I want a referendum to take

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place. I understand that. As you pointed out to Mark Reckless just

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now, unless there is a Conservative government, people won't have that

:19:44.:19:47.

choice. Under a Labour government they will not get a choice at all.

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Our survey of Tory councillors shows that almost 50% would vote to leave

:19:57.:20:00.

the EU in a referendum. I think it showed, wasn't it 45, and 39%, but

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again, I'm pretty sure they will decide at the time. They will want

:20:08.:20:14.

to see what a future government achieves in a renegotiation before

:20:15.:20:18.

they decide what to vote in a referendum. Unless David Cameron is

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Prime Minister and there is a Conservative government, there will

:20:23.:20:30.

not be a renegotiation. That is a point you have made four times. I

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think they have got it. Your Cabinet colleague says we should not be

:20:35.:20:37.

scared of quitting the EU, but you went native in the Foreign Office,

:20:38.:20:43.

didn't you? You used to be a Eurosceptic, you are now the Foreign

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Office line man. No, I don't think so! We brought back the first

:20:49.:20:52.

reduced European budget ever in history. Even Margaret Thatcher...

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Leaving the EU scares you, doesn't it? Not much scares me after 26

:21:01.:21:04.

years in politics but we want to do the best thing for the country.

:21:05.:21:13.

Where we scared when we got us out of liability for Eurozone bailouts?

:21:14.:21:18.

We were not scared of anybody. People said we couldn't achieve

:21:19.:21:21.

things but we negotiated these things. We can do that with a wider

:21:22.:21:28.

negotiation in Europe. Mr Reckless says he cannot keep the Conservative

:21:29.:21:35.

promise to tackle immigration. You have failed to keep your promise to

:21:36.:21:49.

keep net immigration down. You promised to cut it below 100,000,

:21:50.:21:54.

you failed. It is over 200,000 people. We have cut it from 250,000

:21:55.:22:13.

in 2005, the last figures were 240,000. I think we can file that

:22:14.:22:21.

under F four failed. It includes students, we want them in the

:22:22.:22:25.

country. You knew that when you made the promise. But has it come down?

:22:26.:22:30.

Yes, it has. Have we stopped the promise. But has it come down?

:22:31.:22:36.

coming here because of our benefit system? Yes. None of that happened

:22:37.:22:41.

under Labour. If Mark Reckless had his way, it would be more likely we

:22:42.:22:46.

would have a Labour government. They have an open door policy on

:22:47.:22:52.

immigration. You are not just losing MPs to UKIP, you are losing voters.

:22:53.:22:58.

Polling by Michael Ashcroft shows that 20% of people who voted Tory in

:22:59.:23:03.

2010 have abandoned youth and three quarters of them are voting UKIP

:23:04.:23:07.

now. We will see in the general election. Politics is very fluid in

:23:08.:23:14.

this country and we shouldn't deny that in any way but UKIP thought

:23:15.:23:18.

they were going to win the by-election in Newark, we had a

:23:19.:23:23.

thumping Conservative victory, and I think opinion polls are snapshots of

:23:24.:23:28.

opinion now. They are not forecast of the general election and we will

:23:29.:23:32.

be doing everything we can to get our message across. Today we are

:23:33.:23:36.

announcing 3 million more apprenticeships in the next

:23:37.:23:40.

Parliament. I think this is what people will be voting on, rather

:23:41.:23:46.

than who has defected. Your activist base once parked with UKIP. Our

:23:47.:23:53.

survey shows a third of Tory councillors would like a formal pact

:23:54.:24:00.

with UKIP. Why not? It shows two thirds are against it. No, it shows

:24:01.:24:09.

one third want it. I read the figures, it showed 67% don't want

:24:10.:24:16.

it. We are not going to make a pact with other parties, and they don't

:24:17.:24:20.

work in the British electoral system even if they were desirable. You are

:24:21.:24:26.

sharing the Cabinet committee on English votes for English laws. Is

:24:27.:24:32.

further devolution for Scotland conditional on progress towards

:24:33.:24:36.

English devolution? No, the commitment to Scotland is

:24:37.:24:40.

unconditional. We will meet the commitments to Scotland but we

:24:41.:24:44.

believe, we the Conservatives believe, that in tandem with that we

:24:45.:24:48.

have to resolve these questions about fairness to the rest of the UK

:24:49.:24:53.

as well. That will depend on other parties or the general election

:24:54.:24:58.

result. Are you committed to the Gordon Brown timetable? Yes,

:24:59.:25:04.

absolutely. So you are committed to producing draft legislation by Burns

:25:05.:25:08.

night, that is at the end of January. Will you produce proposals

:25:09.:25:14.

for English votes on English laws by then? We will, but whether they are

:25:15.:25:19.

agreed across the parties will depend on the other parties. There

:25:20.:25:25.

was no sign that they were agreeable at the Labour conference. We will

:25:26.:25:32.

produce our ideas on the same timetable as the timetable for

:25:33.:25:37.

Scottish devolution. You will therefore bring forward proposals

:25:38.:25:41.

for English votes for English laws by the end of January? Yes. And will

:25:42.:25:47.

you attempt to get them on the statute book before the election?

:25:48.:25:51.

The commitment in Scotland is to legislate after the election. You

:25:52.:25:57.

will publish a bill beforehand? We will publish proposals beforehand. I

:25:58.:26:01.

don't exclude doing something before the election, but the Scottish

:26:02.:26:06.

timetable is to legislate for the further devolution after the general

:26:07.:26:11.

election, whoever wins the election. Have you given thought as to what

:26:12.:26:16.

English votes for English laws would mean? I have thought a lot of it

:26:17.:26:23.

over 15 years. I am not going to prejudge what the outcome will be,

:26:24.:26:27.

but it does mean in essence that when decisions are taken, decisions

:26:28.:26:33.

that only affect England or only England and Wales, then only the MPs

:26:34.:26:38.

from England and Wales should be making those decisions. You can

:26:39.:26:42.

achieve that in many different ways. Is that it for English

:26:43.:26:46.

devolution, is that what it amounts to? That is devolution to England if

:26:47.:26:52.

you like, but within England there is a lot of other devolution going

:26:53.:26:57.

on and we might well want to extend that further. We have given more

:26:58.:27:01.

freedom to local authorities, there is a lot of scope to do more of

:27:02.:27:07.

that, but that in itself is not the answer to the problem of what

:27:08.:27:16.

happens at Westminster. You haven't just given Scotland more devolution

:27:17.:27:21.

or planned to do it, you have also enshrined the Barnett formula and

:27:22.:27:26.

that seems to be in perpetuity. It is widely regarded as being unfair

:27:27.:27:30.

to Wales and many of the poorer English regions. Why do you

:27:31.:27:35.

perpetuate it? It will become less relevant overtime if more

:27:36.:27:41.

tax-raising powers... It goes all the way back to the 1970s, we made a

:27:42.:27:47.

commitment on that, we will keep our commitments to Scotland as more --

:27:48.:27:52.

but as more tax-raising powers devolved, the Barnett formula is

:27:53.:28:00.

less significant. If you transfer ?5 billion of tax-raising powers to

:28:01.:28:05.

Scotland, 5 billion comes off the Barnett formula? It will be a lot

:28:06.:28:10.

more complicated than that, but yes, as their own decisions about

:28:11.:28:15.

taxation are made, the grand from Westminster will go down. And you

:28:16.:28:20.

can guarantee that if there is a majority Conservative government,

:28:21.:28:24.

there will be English votes for English laws after the election?

:28:25.:28:28.

Yes, I stress again that there are different ways of doing it but if

:28:29.:28:32.

there is no cross-party agreement on that, the Conservatives will produce

:28:33.:28:36.

our proposals and campaign for them in the general election. Don't go

:28:37.:28:41.

away because I want to move on to some other matters.

:28:42.:28:47.

Now to the fight against so-called Islamic State terrorists.

:28:48.:28:49.

Yesterday, RAF Tornado jets carried out their first flights over Iraq

:28:50.:28:52.

since MPs gave their approval for air-strikes against the militants.

:28:53.:28:55.

When you face a situation with psychobabble -- psychopathic killers

:28:56.:29:03.

who have already brutally beheaded one of our own citizens, who have

:29:04.:29:07.

already launched and tried to execute plots in our own country to

:29:08.:29:13.

maim innocent people, we have a choice - we can either stand back

:29:14.:29:18.

from this and say it is too difficult, let's let someone else

:29:19.:29:22.

try to keep our country safe, or we take the correct decision to have a

:29:23.:29:26.

full, comprehensive strategy but let's be prepared to play our role

:29:27.:29:31.

to make sure these people cannot do not trust harm.

:29:32.:29:34.

And William Hague is still with me - until July he was, of course,

:29:35.:29:38.

Why have only six Tornado jets being mobilised? Do not assume that is all

:29:39.:29:50.

that will be taking part in this operation. That is all that has been

:29:51.:29:54.

announced and I do not think we should speculate. Even the Danes are

:29:55.:30:01.

sending more fighter jets. There is no restriction in the House of

:30:02.:30:04.

Commons resolution passed on Friday on what we can do. So why so

:30:05.:30:10.

little? Do not underestimate what our Tornados can do. They have some

:30:11.:30:15.

unique capabilities, capabilities which have been specifically asked

:30:16.:30:19.

for by our allies. When you are on the wrong end of six Tornados, it

:30:20.:30:23.

will not feel like a small effort. But there will be other things which

:30:24.:30:28.

can add to that effort. We are joining in a month after the

:30:29.:30:32.

operation started, we are late, we are behind America, France,

:30:33.:30:37.

Australia, Jordan, the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, one hand tied behind our

:30:38.:30:41.

backs cause of the rule about not attacking Syria - why is the British

:30:42.:30:46.

government leading from behind? First of all, we are a democratic

:30:47.:30:50.

country, and you know all about Parliamentary approval. You could

:30:51.:30:55.

have recalled parliament. We have done that, with a political

:30:56.:31:00.

consensus. Other European countries also took the decision on Friday to

:31:01.:31:05.

send their military assets. Our allies are absolutely content with

:31:06.:31:07.

that, and Britain will play an important role, along with many

:31:08.:31:11.

other nations, including Arab nations. General Sir David Richards

:31:12.:31:18.

Sheriff, who just steps down as the Nato Deputy Supreme Commander, he

:31:19.:31:24.

condemns the spineless lack of leadership and the absence of any

:31:25.:31:26.

credible strategy. It is embarrassing,isn't it? Of course,

:31:27.:31:37.

they turn into armchair generals. We are playing an important role, we

:31:38.:31:41.

are a democratic country. Your viewers will remember, we had a vote

:31:42.:31:45.

last year on military action in Syria and we were defeated in the

:31:46.:31:49.

House of Commons, a bad moment for our foreign policy. We have taken

:31:50.:31:53.

care to bring this forward when we can win a vote in the House of

:31:54.:31:56.

Commons, and that is how we will proceed. The air Chief Marshal until

:31:57.:32:05.

recently in charge of the RAF, he says, it makes no sense to bomb Iraq

:32:06.:32:10.

but not Syria. He calls the decision ludicrous. Of course, it DOES make

:32:11.:32:16.

sense to bomb Iraq, because the Iraqi government has asked for our

:32:17.:32:24.

assistance. This came up a lot in the debate on Friday, and the Prime

:32:25.:32:28.

Minister explained, similar to what I have just been saying, that there

:32:29.:32:34.

is not a political consensus about Syria in the House of Commons. When

:32:35.:32:38.

we did it last year, we were defeated, and it was described by

:32:39.:32:41.

all commentators as a huge blow to the government and to our foreign

:32:42.:32:47.

policy. So, we will bring forward proposals when there is a majority

:32:48.:32:48.

in There are several answers. Just

:32:49.:33:12.

because you're not doing anything does not mean you should not do

:33:13.:33:18.

something. The United States and other countries are involved in

:33:19.:33:25.

action against targets in Syria. If we were to put that proposal to the

:33:26.:33:31.

House of Commons tomorrow and it was defeated we would not have achieved

:33:32.:33:34.

a great deal. You don't know what it would be if the case is strong. The

:33:35.:33:42.

Labour Party holds hostage your foreign and defence policy? We are

:33:43.:33:48.

democratic country and have to go through the House of Commons in

:33:49.:33:51.

these things and the Labour Party is a large part. Is it not embarrassing

:33:52.:34:02.

to be on the wrong side of so many of these military experts? Why

:34:03.:34:06.

should we trust the judgement of here today, gone tomorrow

:34:07.:34:11.

politicians against the expertise? We have military experts with us

:34:12.:34:16.

now. This is the big difference from the last government. We have

:34:17.:34:22.

national security council. Which you are cheering? It is cheered by the

:34:23.:34:26.

Prime Minister and I am a member of it. We take decisions together. By

:34:27.:34:37.

the people who have the information now. Chairing the committee, you

:34:38.:34:43.

will know what British and American intelligence says about Syria. The

:34:44.:34:49.

Prime Minister has said there's a danger the British-born jihadists

:34:50.:34:53.

will come back and attack us but the intelligence reports are quite

:34:54.:34:58.

clear, Al-Qaeda and its associates are selecting and indoctrinating the

:34:59.:35:07.

jihadist sincerity not Iraq. -- in Syria, not Iraq. I cannot comment on

:35:08.:35:14.

intelligence reports but Syria are direct threat to this country, and

:35:15.:35:19.

have we excluded taking action? We have not. Could you come back and

:35:20.:35:27.

ask? It was specifically said in the motion before the house that if we

:35:28.:35:30.

wanted to take action we would come back to the House of Commons. That

:35:31.:35:35.

could happen but we haven't taken any decision and we would not do so

:35:36.:35:38.

as we thought we were just going to be defeated like we were last year.

:35:39.:35:43.

The government supports strikes on silly as and you must believe they

:35:44.:35:49.

are legal. The legal base differs from one country to another. You

:35:50.:35:57.

must believe the US is involved in legal action otherwise you would not

:35:58.:36:02.

support it. They are taking action legally and we support action but

:36:03.:36:07.

really, I entirely understand it is a legitimate question, but you are

:36:08.:36:14.

asking why Iraq and not silly? The answers are those I have given. --

:36:15.:36:21.

and not Syria? We support our allies in what they do and we are also

:36:22.:36:25.

engaged in building up the political strength of the more moderate

:36:26.:36:28.

opposition in Syria and trying to bring about a piece solution. Has

:36:29.:36:35.

the government got legal advice that if we were to attack Syria that

:36:36.:36:41.

would be legal? The way it works as if we propose doing something we

:36:42.:36:44.

seek for the specific legal advice. Why would you not look for it

:36:45.:36:50.

anyway? Because you have to be sure of the legal advice at the time and

:36:51.:36:54.

we do not comment on the advice given to us. Tony Blair ended up

:36:55.:36:59.

publishing houses. He did so because there was a huge public dispute. You

:37:00.:37:04.

have not had legal advice that Britain attacking Syria would be

:37:05.:37:09.

legal? The legal situation is likely to be the barrier, let me put it

:37:10.:37:13.

that way, because within international law, you can act in

:37:14.:37:21.

the face of extreme distress and collective self-defence, so you can

:37:22.:37:24.

imagine legal justification for this. We will take the advice at the

:37:25.:37:34.

time in detail. You're watching Sunday Politics, goodbye to viewers

:37:35.:37:35.

in Scotland who leave us now. Good morning and welcome to

:37:36.:37:41.

Sunday Politics Scotland. How long will be Spike and political

:37:42.:37:43.

engagement last? Will the political parties continue

:37:44.:37:58.

to feel the love from new members And what do additional powers

:37:59.:38:01.

look like when it comes to Can governments

:38:02.:38:05.

actually create jobs? It's the week after the big vote

:38:06.:38:10.

and while posturing over powers and leadership continues

:38:11.:38:13.

the number of people joining political parties in Scotland has

:38:14.:38:15.

reached an unprecedented level. With a turnout out of almost 85%,

:38:16.:38:19.

the referendum undoubtedly stirred up interest in Scottish politics

:38:20.:38:22.

but without independence as a focus, how can the parties hold

:38:23.:38:26.

on to this renewed enthusiasm? As the light faded, the queue grew.

:38:27.:38:49.

Fresh Greens joined the party's Glasgow branch, so many that it

:38:50.:38:59.

exceeded their expectations. I am utterly overwhelmed, thank you. At

:39:00.:39:04.

the last count, more than 4000 signed up to the party in the seven

:39:05.:39:09.

days after the referendum taking total membership up to 5600. Tom is

:39:10.:39:17.

one of the new joiners. The whole referendum has energised me and my

:39:18.:39:22.

friends. We had such a feeling of hope. Your vote actually meant

:39:23.:39:27.

something last week and hopefully we can carry that on. The Greens are

:39:28.:39:31.

not alone in that boosted popularity. Since the referendum,

:39:32.:39:39.

membership has grown to almost 70,000 making it the third largest

:39:40.:39:43.

party in the UK but as the hangover lists, will new members lose

:39:44.:39:49.

interest? There will inevitably be some who are brought back down by

:39:50.:39:56.

life and in some cases some can be disaffected and there may be

:39:57.:39:59.

financial reasons or emotional reasons, but I do not believe it

:40:00.:40:06.

will be a great deal. You cannot turn the clock back. The awakening

:40:07.:40:11.

of people to real power and real change. Once that has happened it is

:40:12.:40:17.

a march forward. Suzanne used to support the Labour Party and is not

:40:18.:40:20.

the only member to switch allegiance. Although the party will

:40:21.:40:25.

not publish membership and feel we are told that has increased by

:40:26.:40:31.

hundreds during the period. The Scottish Socialists have reported an

:40:32.:40:35.

increase as well with no data available for Conservatives Liberal

:40:36.:40:40.

Democrats. How long will this renewed enthusiasm last and what can

:40:41.:40:46.

politicians do to capture it? We have seen fantastic engagement on

:40:47.:40:52.

both sides. It has engaged people. The situation now looks like a

:40:53.:41:00.

different challenge, because in challenge, you mobilise over

:41:01.:41:04.

Scottish interests, and what is very clear is that so far the parties

:41:05.:41:07.

that were supporting the yes side seemed to be doing a better job at

:41:08.:41:11.

this, which makes sense because people were brought on who now want

:41:12.:41:20.

to stay on board, whereas the No site have to create a new topic that

:41:21.:41:25.

grabs people passionately, and they have to make the Westminster

:41:26.:41:28.

election is not just about Westminster but about Scottish

:41:29.:41:33.

interests. The hopes of the new card carrying members join those of the

:41:34.:41:38.

party faithful and a Scotland's politics continue to change it seems

:41:39.:41:41.

there is renewed pressure on the party faithful and a Scotland's

:41:42.:41:43.

politics continue to change it seems there is renewed pressure on the

:41:44.:41:45.

parties not to disappoint. I am joined by Patrick Harvie now,

:41:46.:41:51.

and from Birmingham studio, David Mundell. Were you as disconcerted

:41:52.:41:58.

that that meeting as you appeared to be? I was blown away completely.

:41:59.:42:05.

Normally the Glasgow branch meets in the backroom of a pulp and if we get

:42:06.:42:10.

50 people that is great, so we moved to a bigger venue because we thought

:42:11.:42:14.

might get more than that but even that venue was mobbed before the

:42:15.:42:18.

meeting began with a huge queue stretching down the path. We had to

:42:19.:42:25.

have a separate meeting outside. If these figures are accurate that your

:42:26.:42:30.

membership has tripled. Quadrupled. There is an issue for you as the

:42:31.:42:35.

leader of the Greens in Scotland. In what sense do you own the party? I

:42:36.:42:41.

never did. They knew people who have joined could quite easily tangling

:42:42.:42:46.

policy in a different direction? That has always been the case that

:42:47.:42:51.

the membership control the party. We do not use leadership, I am the core

:42:52.:42:57.

convener, and that simply means we cheer at the National Council and

:42:58.:43:00.

are elected every year. We do not dictate policy strategy. The council

:43:01.:43:05.

and the annual conference make those decisions and that will continue to

:43:06.:43:11.

be the case. One obvious example, perhaps unlikely, but let's say all

:43:12.:43:15.

these said that Watkins used as was the green bit of your policy and we

:43:16.:43:19.

do not like the independence but so can we scrap that? I know for a fact

:43:20.:43:25.

there have been yes and No voters who have joined us in the wake of

:43:26.:43:28.

the referendum, which is partly because although we were clear about

:43:29.:43:33.

the majority position, we were always comfortable challenging the

:43:34.:43:37.

SNP on AV as we disagreed. My point stands. That would have been the

:43:38.:43:49.

case even before this. According to you it is quadrupled the case now?

:43:50.:43:56.

So it is much more exciting! The first thing we should ask viewers

:43:57.:44:01.

are you going to defect to UKIP? I most certainly am not. We have a big

:44:02.:44:09.

job to do in Scotland in terms of bringing and delivering more powers

:44:10.:44:12.

to the Scottish Parliament. We have had a very successful campaign. When

:44:13.:44:22.

you say we, you mean the Conservatives? The Conservative

:44:23.:44:27.

party in Scotland have played a very significant role in the referendum

:44:28.:44:31.

campaign. Ruth Davidson has led from the front and that was ignored from

:44:32.:44:36.

commentators on all sides of the argument. We made a passionate case

:44:37.:44:42.

for Britain as a positive case for Scotland's future and everyone

:44:43.:44:45.

acknowledges Ruth Davidson was the game changer in relation to more

:44:46.:44:51.

powers for the Scottish Parliament for her bold proposals. I am not

:44:52.:44:57.

sure everyone does agree with that. The Conservative party recruitment

:44:58.:44:59.

drive in Scotland, how's that going? The number we have made

:45:00.:45:05.

available throughout this campaign is the 80,000 people who signed up

:45:06.:45:09.

to our Conservative friends of the union campaign. But how many new

:45:10.:45:16.

members? Focused on actually getting people active in politics, and Ruth

:45:17.:45:23.

Davidson led that. We want to continue that. We want to keep these

:45:24.:45:31.

people active in their own localities and nationally and some

:45:32.:45:34.

have gone on to join the party and want to be candidates. A lot of

:45:35.:45:45.

those people want to be active. We have about 11,000 members and new

:45:46.:45:49.

members during the course of the campaign. How many? The people who

:45:50.:45:55.

signed up to friends of the union, that is what I think is the

:45:56.:45:58.

positive. You have said that, I am asking how many new members? Several

:45:59.:46:07.

hundred new members. About 11,000 at the moment, but 80,000 have been

:46:08.:46:13.

willing to sign up to our campaign to keep Scotland and the union. That

:46:14.:46:17.

is the third time you have said that. You're not using these

:46:18.:46:24.

old-fashioned methods like getting people to join your party? We are

:46:25.:46:30.

clearly moving forward into a different political environment and

:46:31.:46:32.

people want to be members of the party. They want to influence policy

:46:33.:46:39.

and perhaps stand for election. There are also people who want to be

:46:40.:46:42.

active in their local communities and I think that is one of the big

:46:43.:46:46.

challenges in Scotland because under the present Scottish government we

:46:47.:46:50.

have seen a centralisation of power. Even if they want to be active in

:46:51.:46:57.

their local communities they have little opportunity. The problem is

:46:58.:47:02.

that no one is going to deny that getting more members is a good thing

:47:03.:47:07.

from your point of view, but the question for you and the SNP as well

:47:08.:47:12.

is what this really means, whether these people are just coming on

:47:13.:47:15.

because there's a bit of excitement after the referendum? Or whether you

:47:16.:47:20.

can convince them to become activists? Of the people we have met

:47:21.:47:27.

not just in the Glasgow branch, there's a real appetite and

:47:28.:47:31.

enthusiasm for getting involved, but we do not know exactly what our

:47:32.:47:35.

membership will be a year or two from now but we hope it will

:47:36.:47:39.

continue to grow. It goes beyond just the numbers. The next link

:47:40.:47:44.

coming up as the general election. The next thing as the debate about

:47:45.:47:49.

where devolution goes next. Can I just say one thing. Back do you have

:47:50.:47:56.

ambitions of having a Green MP? Of course, why would you stand on

:47:57.:48:00.

election if you do not want to get elected. We do you think that might

:48:01.:48:05.

be? There are target seats we're going to announcing shortly. We will

:48:06.:48:11.

be announcing target seats shortly, but the point I want to make, and

:48:12.:48:15.

this is really important, the connection of people with politics,

:48:16.:48:20.

and we need to find ways of political parties being more open to

:48:21.:48:23.

that and not just saying we have left number, you have that. This is

:48:24.:48:34.

about a political process. Briefly, David, do the Conservatives have

:48:35.:48:37.

ambition? A lot of areas where you used to have seats, some of them

:48:38.:48:46.

SNP, voted 60 - 40 against independence. Do you see that as an

:48:47.:48:50.

opportunity? A significant target for us as those who have

:48:51.:48:53.

Conservative values but have been voting SNP. I think the referendum

:48:54.:48:59.

demonstrated that at a lot of people have come to understand that if you

:49:00.:49:05.

vote SNP you are voting for independence and a focus on

:49:06.:49:09.

constitutional issues, and if you want to see Conservative policy

:49:10.:49:11.

implemented you should vote for the Conservative Party. Which is your

:49:12.:49:16.

main target to be the second Conservative seat in Scotland? I am

:49:17.:49:24.

not going to fall into that trap. We have been there before. The analysis

:49:25.:49:30.

and focuses entirely about the numbers. What we want to do is get

:49:31.:49:34.

good candidates in place and all the seats in Scotland and fight as hard

:49:35.:49:39.

as we can. Don't go away, we will come back to you.

:49:40.:49:41.

We've seen the grass-roots, but the people

:49:42.:49:43.

in suits are left arguing about more powers for the Scottish Parliament.

:49:44.:49:46.

Lord Smith, the chair of the cross-party

:49:47.:49:48.

commission in devolution, is asking the parties for their proposals.

:49:49.:49:50.

We heard in the campaign about job-creating powers.

:49:51.:49:52.

But what are these drivers to employment?

:49:53.:49:54.

Can governments push a lever and create jobs?

:49:55.:49:56.

As Andrew Kerr reports, there's no rest or relaxation,

:49:57.:50:04.

as those carrying on the campaign for constitutional change want to

:50:05.:50:06.

see proposals for powers taking-off, rather than stalling.

:50:07.:50:28.

creaming off holidays after a long, hard battle. Unless they have jetted

:50:29.:50:36.

off, more for Parliament has been in people's brains. The turbofan engine

:50:37.:50:44.

is responding in this era craft, no doubt politicians wish they had this

:50:45.:50:49.

kind of instantaneous control. Governments have to rely on

:50:50.:50:53.

different levers to pursue policies. It sounded like there was a simple

:50:54.:51:01.

manoeuvre for employment. Alistair Darling struggled but fundamentally

:51:02.:51:09.

do governments create jobs? The implications seem to be that there

:51:10.:51:15.

are laws which need to be passed or powers handed over from Westminster

:51:16.:51:20.

to Holyrood that somehow instantly and magically lead to job creation.

:51:21.:51:27.

I think it says something about how instinctively on the left many

:51:28.:51:31.

Scottish politicians are that that assumption was not challenged more

:51:32.:51:38.

frequently. Year passenger duty could be set at a local level to

:51:39.:51:48.

help businesses, say some. Powers are only important in so far as they

:51:49.:51:54.

allow businesses to create jobs. A range of tax powers for Scotland

:51:55.:51:59.

which allow government to create the environment to allow businesses to

:52:00.:52:04.

create jobs. Our members have consistently highlighted business

:52:05.:52:08.

rates as one of the key taxation factors for the businesses but that

:52:09.:52:12.

has already been devolved for 15 years. Governments can react on the

:52:13.:52:21.

tax system and insight ways to get out of the current system to help.

:52:22.:52:27.

Ultimately the people who create jobs are at those who start new

:52:28.:52:32.

businesses and expand existing businesses, employ people, grow and

:52:33.:52:39.

make money. Not so for this independence leading commentator.

:52:40.:52:43.

More powers are useful to give government a strong guiding hand.

:52:44.:52:49.

Jobs depend on your skills base and how much investment there is.

:52:50.:52:56.

Britain has one of the lowest levels of industrial investment in the

:52:57.:53:01.

Western world because we put all our money in banks and send it abroad.

:53:02.:53:06.

It would be useful if there was a way to encourage investment.

:53:07.:53:12.

Critically, what does the Scottish government need to get to create

:53:13.:53:17.

jobs? Key powers over two things, some degree of control over the rate

:53:18.:53:22.

of business taxation which is normal in most industrialised countries. It

:53:23.:53:31.

needs powers to borrow in its own right which feeds directly into

:53:32.:53:38.

business productivity. Aiming high or perhaps too tall an order? The

:53:39.:53:49.

Westminster parties need to deliver. I am joined again by Patrick Harvie

:53:50.:53:55.

of the Green Park Day and a Conservative MP in about Birmingham

:53:56.:54:00.

studio. Corporation tax which was mentioned there, is that off the

:54:01.:54:05.

agenda as far as you are concerned for more devolution? I do not see

:54:06.:54:12.

the benefits of devolving corporation tax because I think you

:54:13.:54:16.

see the model from the US where you get into a race to the bottom

:54:17.:54:22.

basically if you have different levels of corporation tax within the

:54:23.:54:28.

United Kingdom. The Smith commission is up and running and people can

:54:29.:54:34.

submit views and ideas. I would argue against corporation tax. What

:54:35.:54:38.

I do want to see is the full devolution of income tax which we

:54:39.:54:43.

argued for because I think that is most significant. You are a member

:54:44.:54:51.

of the government and the government will have to implement this

:54:52.:54:54.

legislation. If the British government you are representing says

:54:55.:55:00.

we do not think corporation tax should be included it is not going

:55:01.:55:07.

to happen, is it? I am setting out a view among parties. I am not setting

:55:08.:55:14.

out the government possession. It is the conservative position which is

:55:15.:55:19.

we do not think the devolution of corporation tax within the UK would

:55:20.:55:23.

be beneficial to the Scottish economy. We think the full

:55:24.:55:28.

devolution of income tax would and that would assist many of the most

:55:29.:55:32.

small businesses in Scotland which are not part of the corporation tax

:55:33.:55:40.

regime in any event. One of the commentators after that exchange we

:55:41.:55:43.

saw between Alistair Darling and Alex Salmond said you would think we

:55:44.:55:49.

were in East Germany in the 1970s the way they go on about this. The

:55:50.:55:53.

idea that governments create jobs and they are powers which can be

:55:54.:55:59.

handed over which will transform the economy in Scotland, that is

:56:00.:56:05.

ridiculous, isn't it? Of course they read the relationship between

:56:06.:56:08.

government, the public sector and the private sector. Many of the jobs

:56:09.:56:14.

lost our jobs we're hours have been restricted and he has been cut in

:56:15.:56:20.

the public sector. The government's ability to decide how much money it

:56:21.:56:25.

spends and borrows determined jobs and wages in the public and private

:56:26.:56:32.

sector. It is obvious if what you are saying is spent more public

:56:33.:56:36.

money and give people more jobs in the public sector, that will create

:56:37.:56:41.

jobs. It is the idea that somehow or other the government can have more

:56:42.:56:46.

powers which will create jobs in the private sector, just that is not the

:56:47.:56:54.

way this works? Government decisions, not just investment in

:56:55.:56:58.

industries but government decisions about regulation on industries do

:56:59.:57:04.

affect the ability to create jobs and have quality jobs. For example,

:57:05.:57:11.

there are a great many decisions in relation to the energy industry

:57:12.:57:14.

which are still made at UK level even though they have a very local

:57:15.:57:21.

impact. More renewable energy in public and community levels. That is

:57:22.:57:30.

almost entirely dependent on hand-outs the electricity bills.

:57:31.:57:33.

Most private sector industry does not need subsidies. The call

:57:34.:57:42.

industry does, the oil industry and aviation industry get massive tax

:57:43.:57:50.

breaks. But things not to do with energy, surely it is the general

:57:51.:57:54.

economic environment that creates jobs? Much of it is regulated by the

:57:55.:58:01.

government, the banks is another example. A great many European

:58:02.:58:05.

countries have banks that have a natural investment in the real

:58:06.:58:09.

economy, that is what they do instead of putting it on the casino

:58:10.:58:15.

economy. The ability to ensure the economy functions for the common

:58:16.:58:20.

good, works for people's interests rather than those who suck value out

:58:21.:58:28.

of the economy. What about this idea that it is all about the powers the

:58:29.:58:34.

government has? I do not agree with that. Governments create the

:58:35.:58:38.

environment in which jobs and prosperity can come about. These

:58:39.:58:43.

Scottish Government and Scottish Parliament already have significant

:58:44.:58:48.

powers to do that. If you block to the north-east, Aberdeen, the oil

:58:49.:58:54.

industry, the key issues able raise the about what is holding the

:58:55.:58:58.

industry back is the infrastructure around about Aberdeen, the road

:58:59.:59:03.

network. We lack of housing in the area and the lack of skilled people

:59:04.:59:08.

have. These are three things already within the remix of the Scottish

:59:09.:59:13.

government. Hopefully now we have got the referendum out of the way we

:59:14.:59:18.

can have a focus on the significant decisions that can really affect job

:59:19.:59:23.

opportunities on the ground. Let me ask you about small industries. The

:59:24.:59:30.

rate of business formation has been relatively low for a long time not

:59:31.:59:36.

just computer other parts of the UK but compared to other countries

:59:37.:59:41.

around the world. Who knows, if we voted for independence may that

:59:42.:59:46.

would have changed but it seems a fairly intractable problem and I am

:59:47.:59:49.

not sure there is anything governments can do to address it, do

:59:50.:59:55.

you disagree? One thing we can do is take the burden of paperwork off of

:59:56.:00:06.

small businesses. It is easy for politicians but it is the one thing

:00:07.:00:09.

that I think would make a significant difference. What you are

:00:10.:00:16.

saying cannot be explanation because the paperwork praised by businesses

:00:17.:00:22.

in England is the same. I was not setting it out as something to

:00:23.:00:27.

change particularly in Scotland but the way people have to set up small

:00:28.:00:34.

businesses they identify that as the biggest impediment. I think we have

:00:35.:00:37.

maybe a lot of progress in Scotland in promoting a more entrepreneurial

:00:38.:00:43.

culture in Scotland and we have to do that whether independent or not.

:00:44.:00:48.

You're watching Sunday Politics Scotland.

:00:49.:00:50.

Let's cross now for the news with Andrew Kerr.

:00:51.:00:53.

Good afternoon. On the first day of the

:00:54.:00:55.

UK Conservative Party conference, the Prime Minister has repeated his

:00:56.:00:58.

pledge to deliver more devolution. Speaking on the BBC's Andrew Marr

:00:59.:01:01.

Show, David Cameron replied "Yes" FOUR times after he was asked

:01:02.:01:06.

if he would stick to the cross-party vow made before the vote.

:01:07.:01:10.

The SNP say their post-referendum surge in party membership shows

:01:11.:01:13.

people are putting their trust in THEM to hold Westminster to

:01:14.:01:21.

its promise of new powers. A cyclist has been seriously injured

:01:22.:01:24.

in a hit and run collision in Stirlingshire.

:01:25.:01:26.

The 47-year-old man was on the Kippen to Fintry road yesterday

:01:27.:01:30.

afternoon when he was hit by a van. It failed to stop.

:01:31.:01:32.

Police are now appealing for witnesses.

:01:33.:01:37.

Andy Murray has halted the 15-month title drought that had

:01:38.:01:39.

become a real worry after engineering a spectacular turnaround

:01:40.:01:43.

in the Shenzhen Open final. The Scot faced four match points

:01:44.:01:47.

in a second-set tie-break but saved them with some of

:01:48.:01:50.

his best tennis on his way to a 5-7 7-6 6-1 victory over Tommy Robredo.

:01:51.:02:00.

Let's look at the weather now, here's Gillian.

:02:01.:02:04.

Hello. A load of dry weather to come across the country this afternoon

:02:05.:02:13.

but a good deal of cloud and not much brightness. A band of showery

:02:14.:02:18.

rain mainly affecting Argyll and spreading into Perthshire and

:02:19.:02:22.

Speyside. A few bright spells across the south, perhaps the best or the

:02:23.:02:26.

Northern Isles and far north of the mainland. Mainly like winds will see

:02:27.:02:31.

things feel cool. That's all for now, back to Gordon.

:02:32.:02:41.

The Conservative party conference gets underway at

:02:42.:02:42.

Birmingham International Conference Centre today.

:02:43.:02:44.

Yesterday brought only bad news, with the defection of Mark Reckless

:02:45.:02:47.

to UKIP, and the sudden resignation of Brooks Newmark, minister

:02:48.:02:49.

for Civil Society, following his involvement in a sexting scandal.

:02:50.:02:52.

The double disaster is an unwelcome distraction for the

:02:53.:02:55.

party, as David Cameron tries to seize the initiative with further

:02:56.:02:59.

reform to the benefits system.I'm joined now by our

:03:00.:03:03.

Westminster Correspondent, David Porter, who's at the International

:03:04.:03:04.

Conference Centre in Birmingham. David Mandel has just assured has he

:03:05.:03:19.

is not about to defect to UKIP so you can take the glad tidings to the

:03:20.:03:24.

delegates. What is the feeling there about these defections? I think they

:03:25.:03:32.

think if this is how you want to get publicity for a party conference

:03:33.:03:36.

eight months before a general election this is probably not the

:03:37.:03:43.

way to do it. The headlines today are all about one who is reckless by

:03:44.:03:47.

name and the other reckless by nature. Mark reckless defected to

:03:48.:03:56.

UKIP and the other who resigned after a text message row and

:03:57.:04:05.

allegations about his private life. You talk to representatives here and

:04:06.:04:10.

those who followed the Tory party quite closely and they think there

:04:11.:04:16.

might be others who could be considering this. They could either

:04:17.:04:20.

do it this week at the conference, just see for instance on Wednesday

:04:21.:04:26.

morning ahead of David Cameron's speech, think of the adoptions.

:04:27.:04:30.

Order as many people think at the turn of the year when the Tory high

:04:31.:04:33.

command will think they have got over this. That would cause huge

:04:34.:04:41.

damage as well. It is not the way any party wants to generate

:04:42.:04:45.

headlines. I think what they will now be trying to do is hope they can

:04:46.:04:51.

draw a line under it and start the conference and talk about policies.

:04:52.:04:56.

There must be a certain sense of anger. It is one thing for people to

:04:57.:05:02.

say I have changed my mind and I'm disillusioned with my party. This

:05:03.:05:07.

looks like it has been deliberately targeted to cause the maximum amount

:05:08.:05:12.

of damage to David Cameron and his heartache. -- party. I am sure if

:05:13.:05:31.

Mark Reckless were to walk along here, many representatives would

:05:32.:05:35.

quite happily shoved him in the canal. They have had assurances from

:05:36.:05:39.

Mark Reckless that he would stay in the party and this can only damage

:05:40.:05:45.

the Conservatives. It is what we are all talking about at the moment and

:05:46.:05:49.

the Conservatives feel that after Labour had a downbeat conference

:05:50.:05:54.

last week, they have the opportunity with the economy improving to get

:05:55.:05:58.

some of the messages all that they wanted to. They are now having to

:05:59.:06:03.

fight this and try to get this out of the way before getting the

:06:04.:06:07.

message across. We shall have to leave it there. You look at death, I

:06:08.:06:12.

do not know of is a medical going on, but you'll do that you're

:06:13.:06:17.

standing on the canal! Thank you. I like to think I can walk on water

:06:18.:06:24.

but unfortunately I cannot. Now funny look at what is coming up.

:06:25.:06:32.

I am joined by Alex Massie and Isobel Lindsay. Let's talk a little

:06:33.:06:49.

bit about the political landscape. Opportunity for the Tories? David

:06:50.:06:59.

Mandel seemed chipper. The people defecting to UKIP are sort of cancer

:07:00.:07:04.

at the heart of the Tory party and nobody thinks he has that sort of

:07:05.:07:10.

problem for the Conservatives. The thing for the Tories in Scotland, do

:07:11.:07:14.

you measure their progress and shield of the vote or numbers seats.

:07:15.:07:20.

It seems to be possible that Tories will increase their vote by two or

:07:21.:07:27.

three points without dramatically increasing the number of seats. The

:07:28.:07:30.

party leadership says it is seats not share of the vote and by that

:07:31.:07:35.

standard that will be difficult to see progress. Presumably what they

:07:36.:07:40.

are thinking is hang on a minute, we have just had this referendum and

:07:41.:07:44.

everyone is saying Labour is in crisis but there's a problem the

:07:45.:07:50.

SNP, because in the heartland areas, there was heavy voting against

:07:51.:07:59.

independence. If I were a Tory strategist, given these are former

:08:00.:08:04.

Tory seats... The there's an opportunity and as you note the SNP

:08:05.:08:10.

heartlands are lapsed Tory areas. Never underestimate the ability of

:08:11.:08:13.

the Conservatives not to take advantage of it? It remains a

:08:14.:08:19.

branding issues so when you see that turnout matters as well, and the

:08:20.:08:23.

people who voted most decisively in favour of yes was the people who

:08:24.:08:29.

came of age politically during the Thatcher years. That remains a

:08:30.:08:37.

problem for the Conservatives. Tory ideas are much more popular in

:08:38.:08:40.

Scotland but I am not sure it will necessarily be as dramatic a

:08:41.:08:44.

unification of these things as they would like to think. I know you

:08:45.:08:51.

cannot speak for the SNP but I am curious as to what you make of the

:08:52.:08:56.

situation in the West of Scotland? Some areas like Glasgow voted yes

:08:57.:09:02.

but again that does not necessarily translate into a vote for the SNP in

:09:03.:09:09.

a general election, or does it? I think all bets are off. The only

:09:10.:09:14.

historical situation I can compare this to is probably 1967 after the

:09:15.:09:18.

Hamilton by-election where you had a huge increase in SNP membership.

:09:19.:09:24.

Immediately after that, I got elected for Dalmarnock in the city

:09:25.:09:30.

council elections but there was major gains across Labour seats. Of

:09:31.:09:36.

course, things went down, came up, went down, but it was a game changer

:09:37.:09:42.

in that period. I think this could very well be a game changer and that

:09:43.:09:47.

is going to be fascinating to see the general election campaign in

:09:48.:09:50.

Scotland because I think it is wide open. Everyone was assuming as usual

:09:51.:09:56.

it is a choice between Tory and Labour at Westminster so we have to

:09:57.:10:01.

vote labour whether we want to or not, but if the SNP can tell the

:10:02.:10:07.

story, if the narrative could provide a big block of SNP and

:10:08.:10:10.

greens, they could hold the balance of power at Westminster. Radical

:10:11.:10:18.

change of subject. Iraq and Syria. Are we now involved in the long-term

:10:19.:10:26.

effort? William Hague was saying there may be a return to the House

:10:27.:10:29.

of Commons to ask for permission to take military action in this area --

:10:30.:10:40.

in Syria with no endgame. You cannot have an endgame until the end of the

:10:41.:10:44.

game by definition and we do not know how or when that will be the

:10:45.:10:47.

case. There is a lot of nonsense being talked as though Britain is

:10:48.:10:52.

going to war in Iraq for the third time. This is a of half a dozen

:10:53.:11:00.

fighter jets, it is a police action from the year designed to assist the

:11:01.:11:13.

Iraqi forces combating ISIS. We are only involved in one part and it is

:11:14.:11:17.

important to date in a sense of perspective about the depth and

:11:18.:11:22.

longevity of British importance. There's a massive international

:11:23.:11:24.

effort and you can see contributions from the and Belgium. -- the

:11:25.:11:35.

Netherlands. There's a general recognition that ISIS a threat not

:11:36.:11:40.

just to the legion but in terms of the philosophy, the wider world.

:11:41.:11:46.

What do you make of this? Everything we have done in the Middle East and

:11:47.:11:50.

North Africa over the last half decade has been disaster after

:11:51.:11:55.

disaster. We have shown ourselves to be so ignorant and unaware of all

:11:56.:12:02.

the tensions. I actually was not opposed initially to the US, UN

:12:03.:12:06.

approved, of the initial air strikes in Libya which were supposed to just

:12:07.:12:13.

protect against Colonel Gaddafi's forces. And then what happened?

:12:14.:12:19.

America, France and the UK to get us an opportunity to bomb the place to

:12:20.:12:26.

create regime change and we are in a situation now where we have had to

:12:27.:12:32.

withdraw troops. If you were initially in favour of the reasons

:12:33.:12:36.

given, presumably you are in favour of the argument that this is a

:12:37.:12:43.

police action. That they are people, refugees in danger of being

:12:44.:12:48.

massacred by these Islamic state militants. Even if the only effect

:12:49.:12:52.

of a bombing campaign is within a mile to stop them advancing and

:12:53.:12:56.

killing these people, limited though that is, is it not worthwhile? One,

:12:57.:13:02.

I don't think it will work, but to, let's remember Syria. Are you saying

:13:03.:13:10.

the Assad regime has been less destructive than ISIS? It has killed

:13:11.:13:15.

many many more people. What we are doing now is propping him up. We had

:13:16.:13:21.

any situation with no simple answer but what I would say is why are we

:13:22.:13:27.

in there along with Saudi Arabia, which has been financing the

:13:28.:13:30.

jihadist and encouraging them and now they are out of control and they

:13:31.:13:36.

are not taking the lead, let them take the lead. We will have to leave

:13:37.:13:40.

it there. Thank you both very much indeed. That's all from us this

:13:41.:13:46.

week, back at the same time next week, until then, from all of,

:13:47.:13:48.

goodbye.

:13:49.:13:53.

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