19/06/2016 Sunday Politics Scotland

As campaigning restarts after the tragic death of the MP

Jo Cox, we'll be looking at how the final days leading up

to Thursday's EU referendum could have a crucial impact

The polls suggest it's all still too close to call as voters

across the country make their final decision on whether the UK

is better off in or out, of the European Union.

And we'll be letting both campaigns go head to head

as they test the substance of each other's arguments.

Coming up in Sunday Politics Scotland:

After a tragic week in British politics and with only days left

in the referendum campaign, I'll be speaking to

All that to come, and as we enter the final lap before the vote

which will shape the future of Britain, I'm joined by three

journalists who are just as in the dark about the likely

Janan Ganesh, Tom Newton Dunn and Janet Daley.

So campaigning is slowly beginning again after the death of the Labour

MP Jo Cox on Thursday, with events planed today by both

the official Remain and Leave groups.

And we've heard from big figures from either side on the

Labour leader and Remain supporter Jeremy Corbyn and Leave campaigner

and Conservative minister Michael Gove were both asked

Is there any kind of upper limit to immigration

I don't think you can have one while you have the free movement

of labour and I think the free movement of labour means that

you have to balance the economy so you have to improve living

And so that means the European Union's appalling treatment

of Greece, particularly the European Central Bank

as well as the European Union, that is a problem.

So if you actually deliberately lower living standards and increase

poverty in certain countries in south-east or eastern Europe,

then you are bound to have a flow of people looking for somewhere

Surely the issue is an anti-austerity, a growth package

When I've had the opportunity to talk about migration

during the course of this debate, I hope I have been very clear.

I am pro-migration but I believe that the way in which we secure

public support for the continued benefits that migration brings

and the way in which we secure public support for helping refugees

in need is if people feel that they can control the numbers

In Canada and Australia, two countries I very much admire,

they have control and therefore they are able both to welcome

Both sides talking about immigration. Mr Corbyn saying no

upper limit as long as we have free movement in the EU. That is honest

but will not be welcome perhaps by the Remain campaign. Not in the

slightest. The Leave campaign sleeper agent strikes against! It

was Alex Gregory thing to say and you can imagine Jeremy Corbyn being

piled full briefing notes before, saying whatever you do, don't talk

about people coming in their droves -- an extraordinary thing to say. He

threw that all in the bin and told it truthfully, as he saw it. It may

be the thing that precipitate a leadership challenge on him after

the referendum. Much talk of that but no evidence. What did you make

of it? I picked was a phenomenal performance for a covert agent for

the opposite side, not such a good performance for a sincere... It was

honest. It was candid but there is still an element of the country

which is pro-Remain in the most grudging way possible and his

approach might resonate a bit more with the more enthusiastic approach

from George Osborne or David Cameron. The most telling thing this

morning is when Nigel Farage was pressed on his controversial poster

on migration a few days ago and his response was to say that the

mainstream Leave campaign have come up with some pretty fruity posters

of their own on that subject. I think the beginnings of a split

between those sides of the Leave campaign, on the tone of how you

deal with the issue of migration, might open up even in the last few

days. Is there a difference to the tone of the campaign even when

talking about immigration? Or is it back to business as usual? The

substance of the argument remains substance of the argument remains

the same Ulster Jeremy Corbyn put his finger in the league right on

it. As a consequence of the hideous events of the last couple of days if

that is a tendency to imply that anybody associated with the Leave

campaign, anybody who expresses concerns about the numbers of

immigrants, the flow of migration, is somehow a right-wing extremist, a

fascist who is, by implication, associated with this crime. Jeremy

Corbyn didn't do that. I am saying there is a tone in the media

coverage that implies guilt by association with anybody who

expresses concern about migration and that is very dangerous because

the surest way to drive people into extraparliamentary opposition and

dissidents is to make it clear that no respectable politician will pick

up their concerns. Did you agree with Nigel Farage? Of course not.

Nothing is wrong with pointing it out. George Osborne has poured

petrol on the plane is talking about the echoes of 1930s. -- the flames.

That is absurd. Your point about a split in the Leave campaign, there

have been a split from the off. Right from the beginning. There is a

difference in tone between... I was going to say, the story last week

was of a widening gap with Remain in the lead that was the opinion polls,

sorry, with Leave in the lead. If you were on the Remain site, would

you not take comfort from the polls today? Especially from the fact

that, according to YouGov, the mood in the polls predate the killing of

Jo Cox so you could conclusion there is a structural reversion to

continue to which often occurs before big elections. -- continuity.

But it does not help that you have the lead of the opposition getting

into a conversation about free movement. One of the biggest poll

findings, the number of people who feel they would lose out material

from Brexit has gone up from 23 233% and that is how win.

Plenty of opinion polls in this morning's papers,

as you'd expect in the last weekend before the vote.

There will be more to come in the days ahead.

Of course, polls are not quite the holy grail these days,

especially after their failure to get the result right

And the pollsters find referendums even trickier than other votes.

But imperfect as they may be, they're what we've got and they've

told an interesting story throughout the campaign.

Polls conducted by phone like this one back in May by Ipsos Mori have

consistently put Remain ahead - here with an 18-point lead,

But signs things were changing emerged at the end of last month,

as one phone poll showed Leave three points ahead.

And just this Thursday the latest Ipsos Mori survey caused a bit

of a stir when it showed Leave with a six-point lead.

But those carried out online have shown a different story,

with the two sides level pegging or with Leave ahead.

Back in May before the 'purdah' period which stopped the government

taking part in the campaign, one internet poll gave

Almost a month later, another online poll,

this one by ICM, had Leave five points ahead.

But this YouGov survey is one of four polls released overnight,

suggesting both sides are neck and neck, suggesting the result

So that's the story told by the polls in the months leading

up to the referendum, and just so you have the full

YouGov for the Sunday Times puts Remain on 44%, one point

Another YouGov poll for Good Morning Britain gives

Opinium for the Observer has Leave and Remain level pegging on 44%.

And Survation for the Mail on Sunday, the only telephone

poll today, has Remain on 45% and Leave on 42%.

Well, there's only one man we can turn to explain what it all means -

I speak of course of elections expert John Curtice,

Four new polls out this morning. What do they tell us? They certainly

provide a degree of relief for David Cameron and the remaining macro side

after some dire polls last week which almost unanimously suggested a

sharp drop in support for Remain. But it is perhaps an indication of

just how tight this referendum has become that three Internet polls

between suggested it was 50-50 and one telephone pole, which although

it puts Remain back in the lead, it makes the lead much narrower that in

any previous point in the campaign. The fact that that is regarded as

good news for them is an indication of how much trouble they had got

into seemingly. I think these polls were taken at a time when it was too

early, tell me if I'm wrong, to see if the appalling tragedy of Jo Cox

has had any impact on the campaign. I think that is correct. The

telephone poll was done entirely afterwards, one of the YouGov polls

was done mostly afterwards. They are saying that the poll they did just

before was already showing Remain increasing and the one after shows

that continuing further. Given that there was a widespread expectation

that perhaps Remain would start to regain ground as people considered

the possible risks of voting for Leave, maybe this process had

already kicked in and that is explaining something of a movement

back towards Remain, and it may not necessarily have anything to do with

the tragic murder of Jo Cox. There is nothing in these polls to be able

to pin it definitively on that particular event. It is often said

in referenda that there can be a reversion to the status quo on the

final day and that would be to vote to remain. Is there any sign of

that? And what can you tell us about the undecideds? I saw some of the

polling suggesting that those who were undecided, if they vote, they

are more likely to vote to remain than to come out. Your first point,

it is precisely whether that process are people reverting back to the

status quo is already kicking in and this explains why the polls this

weekend are somewhat better than those in the week. And I think what

it does seem to be the case, we are asking is that movement to leave was

a stone that was gathering more moss and would continue this weekend and

that clearly hadn't happened. Remain may hope that people reverting back

to the status quo might happen, that is the first point. The second was

about the significance of the undecideds. The number of them going

down and the people who have made up their mind is going up but you are

right that most polls find that the people who don't know are most

likely to vote first of all and the second thing they are likely to do

is to vote for Remain. And many of the opinion polls published now are

already including into their headline tallies the reported votes

of those who initially said they were undecided but are asked a

follow up squeeze question. We should not say there is more ground

to be made for Remain from that particular phenomenon. Thank you.

Only a few days to go, so how will the campaigns try to win

over undecided voters in the short time they have remaining?

Well, we're joined now from Somerset by the former Lib Dem

And here in the studio by the Labour MP and Leave campaigner,

Paddy Ashdown, do you get a sense this weekend, if I can put it this

way, that the Remain campaign is back on track? Andrew Neil, you

really want to bring me on straight after John Curtis, my nemesis, and

ask me to disagree with him! The last time I had to eat my hat... I

disagreed with John twice on the poll now and I have been wrong on

every occasion and I'm delighted to make my apologies to him on your

programme. I don't know all the I think what you're talking about with

John about the undecided voters maybe keep to this, if they vote or

not, and if they do, will they vote in favour of remaining as people

predict. I don't think any of us know. It is all within a margin of

error, it is all to play for and it looks to me, extremely tight.

Perhaps a small shift in favour of remaining macro but too small to be

certain about it. We got some austere stories about

the economy from the Chancellor this morning on ITV. In the final three

days, starting tomorrow, three more days of campaigning to go, is that

the right way to go, or would you advise the Remain campaign to start

putting out a more positive message about remaining in the EU? They are

following a playbook they have followed before. I'm not involved

with the Remain campaign. My advice to voters, when it comes to

predictions on the economy, do not listen to either side, listen to the

independent voices whose job it is, paid by all the nations on earth, to

make judgments about the economic consequences of our political

actions. They have been wrong before, but I'll be all wrong? Are

only Mr Johnson and Mr Farage red? People need to realise they are

betting their jobs and the national economy on this. Nothing is certain,

but when you make the judgment, you probably want to wear on your mind,

not George Osborne's comments, or Boris Johnson's from the other side,

they will put the point as they want to, but those independent voices,

every single one of them, without exception, who are independent of

the campaign, the global experts on this. This is not a conspiracy, it

is a consensus, all of them say it will seriously damage our economy.

For most people, worried about their jobs, that will be a more powerful

factor in making your decision. More powerful than the words of the

opposition parties. Some in Remain may not regard it as helpful, but

Jeremy Corbyn told the BBC this morning that with free movement

within the EU, you can have no upper limit on immigration. That was

accurate and honest, wasn't it? One thing you can be sure of, if we

leave the European Union, you will control immigration, but not anyway

that the out campaigners claim. You will trash the economy, far fewer

jobs and no one will want to come here. Your language is interesting.

We will trash the economy, not that we will not grow as fast, not that

it will be better to stay in than I'd, but we will trash the economy?

Find another word, if you wish. We are slowly recovering from

recession. It has been massive pain to get out of the mess we were in.

The international economy, all of those who comment, they say in big

terms are small towns, the used strong words are relatively more

moderated ones, the agree it will push us back into recession. You can

use trash the economy or say we are going back into recession. Creating

those jobs, making Britain one of the best economies in Europe, we

would turn that around if we came out. The consequences will be for

jobs and businesses, the tax revenues for the government that

pays for our public services, it will be very serious. John Mann,

immigration has been a big part of the Leave campaign. Did the town get

too hostile on immigration, did it get to a robust? Yes, and Nigel

Farage's poster is the worst example of that. It would be better known if

it had not been produced and he withdrew it. It is unhelpful and

inaccurate, irrelevant to the real debate. So yes. What did you make of

Jeremy Corbyn's remarks this morning on immigration? The issues in

working-class communities remain. The issues are about pay, agency

work, they are about people's hopes for the future. When you have zero

our contracts, when the health services under pressure, and people

see privatisation and cuts, the Labour agenda on Friday, whatever

the result, it has to get into that. If it is a Leave vote, the first

thing Labour could be doing was demanding a dash was demanding an

immediate end of the procurement rules for public services. We could

argue for an increase in public servers pay, to stop the impact of

the European Court rulings and reinforcing agencies. It is agencies

and the uncertainty in the labour market that is really behind the

strain that appears to be in working -- the strength that appears to be

in working-class communities for Kallis leave. There are only three

days to go. Is the biggest issue immigration again? I hope not. I

hope it is about hope and vision for what kind of country we want in the

future, and how best in the modern technological age, where the

computer has been invented, where we order things online, where big

developments will get even faster, about how we deal with the whole of

the world. I think that politicians, MPs, all of us, myself included, we

remain extremely shaken by the horrific murder of Jo Cox. I think

there will be less campaigning, less than there was. However strong

people's views, they do not want to be banging on doors at the current

time. I think there will be less politicians out and about and there

would have been. There seems to be of their weight behind Leave, last

week, certainly, up until the terrible events on Thursday. Do you

get a sense that it could be slipping away from you this weekend?

From the polls last time, I would have expected them to bounce back

little bit. It will depend on turnout. If there is a

disproportionately high turnout in the areas that do not normally vote,

it will end up with a Leave vote. If it is lower, it will be Remain.

Turnout will decide. It is not predictable. I hope the vast

majority of people are voting and whatever the result, we need to get

together as a country, and get behind that result. Paddy Ashdown...

Would you allow me. It is a really important statement that John Mann

has made. I admire him very much and I know he is just as interested in

the future of this country as I am. If it is the case that the terrible

death of Jo Cox, who I campaigned with on the issues of refugees and

two I had massive admiration for, if that has led to a change in tone,

that would be welcome. The way that John put his case and the way he

moved away from the Nigel Farage poster, which I find distasteful, if

that is the tone of this campaign, I do not think it will massively alter

the result, but that last we will have a campaign we can be proud of,

one that I have felt so far extremely ashamed about. High octane

insults from both sides. Some of that is because it is an internal

civil war in the Tory party, and they are always the worst. I was at

the Oval the other day, and the man came up to the In campaign and said

they should be executed. If we can get away from that, lower the tone

and follow the approach John Mann is suggesting, we will have a good

debate, honoured democracy, and it's essential qualities of tolerance and

respect for others, rather than the kind of thing we have had in recent

weeks. Will the final three days of the campaign be that different in

tone? I think they will be. Certainly members of Parliament will

be careful on the language used. I hope on the Leave site, everyone

will distance themselves from Nigel Farage's poster and what lay behind

that. I hope that on the Remain side, people Walsh move away from

the exaggerations that have taken place. -- people will move. Paddy

Ashdown. I agree with that as well. We have dealt in hyperbole. The

public does not trust either side. If we can change that now, if we can

come back to a statement of the facts, maybe relying on independent

opinions, I think the last few days of the campaign will honour us. In

the interests of our anti-hyperbole Drive, can both Remain and Leave

agree that when the French economic minister says that if we vote to

leave, we will be no more important than Guernsey, we can file that

under hyperbole? Yes, you can. You may be able to file it under trash.

Thank you. Thank you, John Mann, we can file that under hyperbole? Yes,

we can. Now, over the past two weeks we've

been letting the politicians from either side of this referendum

debate interrogate each other over what they feel are the really

big issues at stake. Today, in the last of the series

for now, we've invited the Green Party MP and Remain

campaigner Caroline Lucas to question the Conservative

minister and Leave campaigner A little earlier, we tossed a coin

to see who would go first. Dominic was the winner,

and he chose to answer So, before we get started,

let's have a listen to Domnic Raab making the case for why undecided

voters should vote to leave. I am confident in you,

the British people, and I am also convinced with my head and my heart

that we can only reach our full Take some of the positives

of leaving the EU, our small businesses would be freed up

from straitjacket regulation. That is important for us

because small businesses in this We would be freed up to trade more

energetically with the growth markets of the future,

from Asia to Latin America, which will cut prices in the shops,

and we will take back full control over the money we give the EU,

and our gross contribution is now ?350 million every week

and certain to rise. When it comes to immigration it can

bring huge benefits, but only if it is properly

controlled. Uncontrolled immigration from the EU

has put pressure on jobs and wages, and a massive strain

on infrastructure, The truth is, we cannot properly

control immigration There is something bigger in this

debate, something I want us to be masters

of our own destiny. I want it as a citizen,

as a father, and I want it With the majority of laws now made

in Brussels by politicians and bureaucrats not elected

by or accountable to you, we can only truly be masters

of our own destiny if we vote to leave the EU on 23rd June

and take back democratic control. And here are Caroline

Lucas and Dominic Raab. And just to explain the rules,

Caroline has just five minutes She can only ask questions,

and he can only give answers. Thank you. Dominik, how much is

Britain's net weekly contribution to the EU? Weekly? The grosses 350

million and the net contribution is around half of that. You will know

that on this leaflet it says, let's give NHS the 350 million the EU

takes every week. Is that not misleading because it is not the

real figure? After was four months of campaigning, people have

understood there is a difference between the gross contribution, and

that includes some of the things that the EU spends in this country

on our behalf, without is being able to prioritise, as well as the amount

we give and do not see back. We want the money back that the EU spends on

itself. Do you accept this as a wrong figure? We want control over

the money we put in. It is the gross contribution, I have made that

clear. We never send the men from the rebate, so we cannot possibly be

spending that again on the NHS. Why should anyone believe your side on

the NHS, given that also some of the key vote leave campaigners are

people who want to privatise the NHS? We have a wide range of

politicians involved. We have heard from John Mann. You're some of the

most left-wing unions like our side. In relation to what we said about

the NHS, we would take 100 million each week from the net contribution.

That is the allocation that would be made. When you get your salary from

the House of Commons you get a gross figure. There is a difference

between that and your take-home pay. There is no difference here. That is

a misleading figure. I want to come onto another poster. This is another

one you will be familiar with. The Leave side are sending at around the

country. It says that Turkey I leaving the EU. On a scale of one to

ten, how would you rate the suggestion that Turkey is close to

becoming a EU member? I think it is right. Turkey is in the process of

joining. British taxpayers are already paying ?1.8 billion between

2014 and 2022 pave the way. We have had politicians from Tony Blair to

David Cameron making it clear that the UK wants Turkey to join the EU.

The UK has a veto, doesn't it? It cannot possibly join in the UK uses

that? It is a theoretical veto. It is real. Can you imagine Cyprus not

using its veto? From Tony Blair to David Cameron, the consensus in this

country is that Turkey should join the EU. Our diplomats are working on

measures to expedite that happening. You have got to take into account

the impact that would have. How many of the 35 chapters or areas of

compliance that Turkey would have to fulfil before it could join, how

many of those have been fulfilled in the last 30 years they have been

trying to join? Not many. It is one. That is why it is worrying that in

Whitehall and in Brussels they are expediting Turkish membership. I was

in the Foreign Office when the eight countries from Central and eastern

Europe were playing and in many of those cases those criteria were

ignored because the political will was there and that is what we have

now. Would you accept that this leaflet is misleading because it

sounds like it is going to happen soon and it clearly isn't and

Britain has a veto? Turkish membership of the EU is a question

of when and not if and in that case it is right. Do you think is

contributing to an atmosphere of fear and hatred? The responsible

thing is to talk about immigration in a sensitive way and if you ignore

it and you don't talk about the costs of immigration, you're going

to get far more fringe extremist politics. That's not airbrush it out

of the debate. I want to ask you, key campaigners on the Leave side

like Nigel Lawson and Nigel Farage are at best climate sceptics is not

climate deniers do you agree with them? I'm not a climate sceptic at

climate deniers do you agree with all. You were pleased to see the

agreement in Paris? Did the EU play a good role? The problem we have is

that 10% of CO2 emissions come from the EU and 90% from the rest of the

world so we need a global 08 regional approach. When I dealt with

a lot of global institutions, the problem is the EU is so inward

looking, we lose sight of the big picture and it is global not

regional. The EU played a key role in Paris in terms of ratcheting up

the ambition, yes or no? I don't think the ambition was particularly

high if you look at the Regent of the world outside the EU. We will

leave it there. -- the regions. Now it's the turn of Caroline

to be cross-examined. First, let's have a look

at her pitch to undecided voters, arguing the case

for a vote to remain. They are in their early 20s now,

and this referendum goes to the heart of the kind of future

I want for them, that all of us want for our young

people and for Britain. Yet there is a risk that the outcome

will be decided by older generations if young people do not get

out and vote. The EU can help us build a safer,

better future, because the biggest challenges we face today

are by their very nature international, and are best tackled

by working hand-in-hand with our neighbours,

challenges like climate change, the refugee crisis, cross-border

crime and terrorism. The EU has been a force for good,

from guaranteeing workers' rights to protecting our shared environment

and helping to create jobs in every To turn our backs on this would be

to turn our backs on a safer, greener, more prosperous

and peaceful future. This referendum will define

what kind of country our children Do we want to be an isolated,

inward-looking country that cares only about what it can get out

of the rest of the world, or do we want to be a generous,

confident and outward-looking country that wants to be able

to play its part in making Let's not take our

country backwards. I taught my children that the right

thing to do when confronted with a challenge is to stand tall

and find a solution, That is why I am voting to remain

on June 23rd and I am So, as before, Dominic,

you have six minutes to question Caroline,

off you go. The organisation which is trying to

independently verify facts for the public estimate that around 50 to

60% of UK law that are now made in Brussels. How high would that

percentage have to be for you to be in favour of leaving the EU? It

depends why those rules are being made in Brussels. They are being

made because getting single market and we want to make sure there are

strong social and environmental standards, I'm delighted that they

are being made in Brussels, they should be come they are there

because we want to make sure cross-border problems like air

pollution are controlled because we have the ability to work

cross-border in the EU, absolutely it should be there. Looking at bold

figures does not help us. If 100% of the laws were made in Brussels,

fined by you? It's a bit ridiculous to think that not a single domestic

law would be made in Britain. Things like housing and defence and some

issues are still decided at UK level. Where would you draw the

line? I'm trying to get a sense of when you think the tipping point

arrives when we have lost so much of our democracy. I would challenge the

premise of your question because the idea that the EU is fundamentally

more undemocratic than with Minster is wrong. The government that you

represent was elected with just 24% of the eligible vote, we have an

unelected House of Lords, at least in the European institutions we have

a parliament are through proportional representation and the

Council of ministers which means that if a democratic oversight of

the rules coming from Brussels. When the people watching the show get to

hold to account the 27th of heads of government in the European Council,

the 10th of thousands of bureaucrats and the 90% of MEPs not from

Britain? -- tens of thousands. There are fewer people working for the

interjections in Brussels than for Kent County Council for example. --

for the institutions. I would be the first to say that

EU should be more democratic and accountable, I would like to see the

European Parliament have more powers and the commission have fewer. To

suggest that would be a reason for leaving the EU is just wrong, we

need to be in there to fight it. Net immigration from the EU was 184,000

last year, that is the equivalent of a size city the size of Oxford. Do

you think there should be any limit on the volume of immigration from

the EU? Jeremy Corbyn said note this morning. I think it will be

self-regulating to an extent because people are coming because the other

fifth richest country in the world and there are jobs here. So we don't

need a limit? To have an arbitrary limit would be ineffective and we

have seen that from looking at your own promise to try to do by talking

about bringing it down to tens of thousands. There is no way he can do

that because there is more migration coming from outside the EU that

inside anyway. Take Romania and Bulgaria, the average wage around ?3

an hour, we have a minimum rate of ?7.20 an hour, eight strong pull

factor which puts strains on the and housing. If it up price worth

paying for staying in? There are so many assumptions in your question.

Most of the pressure on our housing and education and health system is

coming from a lack of investment and cuts on the government, not from

people coming in. In the NHS you are far more likely to be treated by

someone who has come from another European country. There are some

real challenges in there. I'm not saying that regression doesn't bring

pressures but we should be recognising there is a net economic

benefit that migrants bring with them so let's invest that properly

in the services in the area. The latest report by the EU's

anti-corruption body shows fraudulent abuse of EU funds at

record levels, they have been criticised for not even implementing

the first obligation under the UN's Convention against corruption. Under

our aid policy, we would not give a penny of taxpayers money to a poor

African country that would not comply with UN standards but we give

billions to the EU. Are you comfortable with that? I'm not

comfortable with corruption or fraud but I don't think the EU has a

monopoly on that and many times the accounts have not been able to be

signed up because individual nation states have not done their job

properly, it is government at fault, not the EU. In your election

manifesto you referred to the EU's unsustainable economic 's. Do you

still hold that view? I think it is unsustainable whether at EU level or

British level and the way to do that do that is to fight it in Britain

and in the EU. Thank you to both of you.

It's just gone 11.35am, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now

Good morning and welcome to Sunday Politics Scotland.

With just days to go, campaigning has resumed

But after the murder of MP Jo Cox, what sort

I'll be speaking to the First Minister Nicola Sturgeon

for Remain And the Tory MSP Graham Simpson for Leave.

And could the "shy Remainers" have as much impact in this referendum

as the "silent majority" did in 2014?

Campaigning ahead of the EU referendum resumed today

after being suspended on Thursday, following the murder of Jo Cox.

It's an event which has united political rivals to pay tribute

to someone they saw as a talented MP and mother with a bright future.

Her death has drawn attention to the easy access voters here enjoy

to their elected representatives and raised questions

about the nature of the referendum campaign itself.

This weekend was supposed to be the start of the final push for votes

ahead of Thursday's EU referendum. Instead, flags at State buildings in

ahead of Thursday's EU referendum. Scotland flew at half-mast after the

death of Jo Cox. The 41-year-old mother was killed outside her

Birstall surgery constituency. The man Thomas Moore has been charged

with her murder. He gave his name as "Death to traitors, freedom for

Britain" appearing in court yesterday. Earlier this week the

response to the killing of Jo Cox by many MPs including Newborough's Ian

Murray was to carry on with their own constituency surgeries as

normal, albeit with increased security. I think most MPs are

trying to have business as usual because that is what the

parliamentary process does and we should be incredibly... We should

cherish our democracy and be that they operate in this country, we

have an open door policy to any elected member and it is something

that other countries do not do. It is a great link between the people

who elect us and the people that we are incredibly privileged to try and

represent in the best way possible. The death of Jo Cox happens during a

referendum campaign which has brought controversial issues like

immigration to the forefront brought controversial issues like

public debate. That said, this has been viewed by many as first and

foremost simply a tragic incident. This obviously does not happen

often, but that it happened to a women, a very bright and well

motivated caring young women, who is a mother of two young children, when

you strip everything else beat you left with that. So how might expect

the referendum? I am not sure it will have a great deal of effect.

Most of the arguments have been made a few days ahead of the referendum.

Both for and against. I think it will probably cause those at the

forefront of the campaign to perhaps be a little bit more careful with

their words. But I do not hold that the view that this murder had

anything to do was directly to do but some of the more unpleasant

aspects of the campaign. One thing that we have seen following the

death of Jo Cox is political opponents united in grief, pain

tribute to someone who is hugely respected beyond party boundaries.

That is a thought that will surely stay in their minds as official

campaigning ahead of the referendum itself begins once again.

In a moment I'll be speaking to the First Minister Nicola Sturgeon,

who wants the UK to remain in Europe.

But first, shortly before we came on air, I spoke

to the Conservative MSP Graham Simpson,

I speak as someone whose sister was murdered nearly 21 years ago. She

was 30 with two young children. It brought it all back to me. So I know

what the family is going through and I think it was right and it felt

right to suspend the campaign. I hope in answer to your question that

there is a change of pawn. It has been to personal and to better. Not

down south. down south.

-- tone. I want to reduce something that the former Prime Minister

Gordon Brown wrote. He said that the tragedy of the discourse of the

referendum to easily descended from a vote over Britain's future in

Europe into adult immigrants and those who support immigrants. Unless

we strive for a culture of respect, we have too little to challenge

prejudice and we will learn nothing from what happened to Jo Cox. Do you

accept that the debate on immigration has become a bit

overblown? Yes, I do. It is certainly not

something I am thinking of but perhaps that is because I am in

Scotland. It is not such a big issue here. Parts of England, we can see

for ourselves, it is clearly more of an issue there, but some of the

rhetoric has been overblown. He is correct on that. The problem is that

while it might not be such a big issue here you personally may not

have been campaigning particular on this, the reality is that if there

is a Brexit vote, one of the main drivers of that will be people's

concerns about immigration. One of the results of Brexit would be that

you could control who comes in and who does not. That is certainly true

and that would be no bad thing. Let us come onto the details of that

shortly. But I am curious as to what you think, should your side when, do

you think that David Cameron can continue? I would hope so. I do not

see why not. He is the Prime Minister who has given us this

referendum. He has given the country a choice. So although he favours

remaining, he is still a Democrat and he will have to accept them as

odd, but it -- which ever way it goes. So if the vote is to leave, he

was -- he will have to start negotiations.

But he would be going into negotiations with our European

partners with no credibility having just lost a referendum. He would

have lost by the divas that referendum, he gave us the choice,

so presumably, he will accept the result. Even if it does not go the

way that he wants, I see no reason why he should stand down. Can you

see any reason why supporters of independence for Scotland should

vote for Brexit? That is an interesting question. It is a good

question. If we look at the SNP, their parliamentarians are not in

tune with their voters. It is simply not credible that every single SNP

parliamentarian thinks the same way on this issue. If you are a

nationalist, which clearly I am not, it seems to me it is the natural

thing to want to leave the European Union and many nationalist borders

don't. Give me the ten second argument as to if I am a nationalist

why I should vote for Brexit. If you are a nationalist, simply, you will

have more control over your own are a nationalist, simply, you will

country, you want that. If we do vote to leave, they would

probably be... There is certainly a clear majority in parliament,

possibly the country, to join the economic area in Europe and preserve

Britain's access to the single market. In your view, is that a good

option? Yes, I do not know if you can think

back to 1975, I did not get the vote, you probably did not either,

but the vote was... I am much older than you think I am! Continue...

OK, good! The vote was to remain in what was the common market. If that

was the vote today, I would say yes to that. So if the deal is, we are

in a free trade area, that is what I would go for.

The problem is if we were to stay in the single market, as you know, they

would have to accept free movement of labour, so you are running a

Brexit campaign that is largely scum are certainly in England, based upon

emigration, and if we join the economic area, matters to do with

immigration would be pretty much exactly the same.

I think, Gordon, everything is up for grabs. The country votes to

leave, there are whole series of negotiations that must take place.

Seems to me any Prime Minister, anyone doing the negotiating can

almost pick and choose. They cannot, they have to negotiate

with the European Union. Norway and the other countries in the EU have

to accept free movement of labour. Switzerland, not a member of the...

Free movement of labour is one of the powers of the European Union, it

could not allow Britain access to the single market and not have free

movement of labour unless it was challenging the whole nature of the

EU and there is no reason to believe they would do that.

So, challenge it. Fine, Britain could do that but there is no reason

to believe that the EU would not tell them to get lost.

The EU would not turn around to Britain and tell them that they did

not want to have a trade deal with us.

No, they will have a trade deal, but they will tell you that if you think

for one second that destroy the they will tell you that if you think

power of the European Union just so they can trade with Britain, you

have another thing coming. But Britain would not be in the

European Union. But my point is that if you want

access to the single market you have to have free movement of labour and

you have to have that degree but to have free movement of labour and

other European countries, it is not just up to us as Britain.

If we do vote to leave, then it is a whole new ball game, frankly.

Why do you think every serious international European organisation

thinks that not just Brexit is a bad idea but would have seriously

damaging consequences for the British economy, the latest being

the International Monetary Fund which reduced a report yesterday

forecasting a short-term recession. Why is there not a single respected

international organisation telling us that Brexit would be good for the

British economy? I have listened to the experts, I have listened to

these doomsday scenarios and none of them actually tell us how this would

come about. Yes, they do. Read the Treasury's report.

Unfortunately I have not had time to do that. Try the OECD one of the

Economist intelligence unit one or the International Monetary Fund.

They all explain precisely why they believe these effects will happen.

To me, if we leave, we have great opportunities. We would get the

money back that we currently put in, that is disputed...

I except that you genuinely believe that, but the trouble is, we are now

in a world of faith -based politics, where every major economic

organisation is telling you that the effects will be precisely the

opposite of what you are telling me and you cannot point to a single

organisation that backs your case, why should anyone take what you say

seriously? People, when they come to vote, they

really need to break it down, they need to look at what it is they are

voting for, what this organisation is that they are voting to stay into

or leave from. What the deal is. Part of that deal is that we get an

awful lot of money to the EU, a political organisation. -- give.

That is ?10 billion each year. We would get that back and be able to

spend that how we chose to spend it. And do the economy is the fifth

largest in the world, I cannot see why we would crash upon leaving a

political project. Graham Simpson, we will have to

leave it there. Thank you. OK.

Joining me now is the First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon.

Before we get into the debate about Europe, in light of what happened

last week, are you doing or planning to do anything to review the

security of members of the Scottish Parliament? The police have been

communicating to the Scottish Parliament offer advice and

communicating to the Scottish reassurance about the security of

members of the Scottish Parliament and I think that is appropriate. The

events in the last couple of days have been tragic and sad beyond

belief. From what I have read and know about Jo Cox, I think she would

agree that we should not respond in a way that closes politicians away

from the public. We are public servants. It is important to

politicians, the ability to be accessible to constituents. You are

not suggesting that members of the Scottish Parliament do anything

different? We are human beings and politicians as human beings will

feel more vulnerable now than they did it a few days ago and that is to

be expected. All politicians will want to think about appropriate

precautions and many will want to discuss with the police what those

may be, but I have not spoken to any politicians who want to do surgery

is with police presence outside or do anything that builds barriers

between us, as elected representatives, and the people we

were elected to serve. According to a newspaper today the Scottish

Government is making contingency plans to maintain Scotland's

membership of the European Union if there was a vote to leave. Is that

true? I said on Thursday I have asked the Scottish Government

officials to look at all eventualities. It would be strange

if I was not doing that. There is an idea that Scotland could remain a

member of the European Union. I hope every part of the UK votes to stay

in the European Union. If Scotland votes to remain there and we face

the prospect of being taken out against a will. I've said this

before, we need to look at all the options to protect Scotland's

interests and to give effect to what the Scottish people vote for. I

understand the point about having another independence referendum, but

I was wondering if any of the contingency plans may contain other

things? If we are in this scenario, and I hope we are not, Scotland's

voice should be hard very directly in any discussions about what

happens next. If we find ourselves in this scenario, I will come back

next Sunday and go into this in as much detail as you want. For the

remaining days of the campaign I am entitled to seek to persuade people

in Scotland, and across the UK, to vote to stay in the EU. If there is

an exit from the European Union there should be a role for the

Scottish Government in the negotiations with the European

Union? Of course. Much of what would arise with impact directly on

devolved responsibilities. If we are in a scenario, and it is an ethnic,

if Scotland votes to remain and the rest of the UK votes to leave, our

interest me to be protected. I need to look at all options to protect

Scotland's interests and to make sure that the democratic will of the

people are tired. What if the British Government said it has

nothing to do with you? That would be unacceptable. If we are in this

situation I'm sure we will be having this discussion next weekend and for

some time. I hope we are not in this situation. I hope people in Scotland

and across the UK vote to remain for a variety of reasons. We are part of

the world's digger single market. -- the world's biggest single market.

But there is a more fundamental aspect to this about the kind of

world that we want to live in. You know that I want Scotland to be an

independent country in the future. We are open and outward looking. The

message that your party is sending out on this referendum I find

confusing. I expect I am not alone. On one hand you are saying that you

want all your supporters to vote to stay in the EU, but on the other

hand your holding out the prospect that if Scotland votes to remain and

the UK votes to leave there could be another independence referendum. If

I am watching this and I was a passionate Yes campaign and the main

thing that I want is another European referendum, I would be

torn. Should I vote to remain because it is important or should I

think that Scotland is going to remain anyway so I will vote to

leave because I want the rest of Britain to vote to leave. If you are

a passionate Yes campaign, and that means you are very intelligent, you

will see the logic a yield what you are saying. You cannot assume that

Scotland will vote to remain. If you are basing your decision on how to

vote on Thursday on what it means for independence, let me be clear

that my vote is not based on that, but if you are the logic of that

position is that if Scotland votes to leave along with the rest of the

UK the prevalence for a second independence referendum does not

arrive. If we vote to leave our immediate future is in the UK and at

the mercy of a Government led by Boris Johnson and maybe Nigel

Farage. You would like Scotland to vote to remain and you would like

the UK to vote to remain. You are twisting my words. I want all of the

UK to vote to remain. Let me make this clear, no one watching vessels

under any about my view of Scotland being an independent country. I do

not want anyone else to think it will come about because of the vote

to leave the EU. I want the UK to will come about because of the vote

vote to remain. I am just pointing out, and I have no control over

this, if the rest of the UK votes to leave in Scotland votes to remain

one of the consequences of that would be that we would have the

right to look at the second independence referendum. It is

predicated on Scotland voting to remain. If Scotland votes to leave

this is a moot point. Most people understand that. I am sorry if you

think I am twisting your words. One of my colleagues told me that she

spent yesterday with two friends who are passionate about independence

and they are going to vote to leave for the reasons I outlined. This is

a good opportunity for me to speak to these people who may think that

is a logical position to take and to tell them that it is not. If

is a logical position to take and to Scotland votes to leave then this

premise for independence does not arise. If you are basing your

decision, and I am not, but if you're basing your decision on what

you think is best for Scottish independence then do not vote to

leave, but to remain. But even in that scenario, if I was a passionate

independence campaigner, you say that if Britain votes to leave the

independence campaigner, you say EU we could be run by a right wing

Tory Government. Nothing is more likely to increase support for

independence in Scotland to the 60% before you have another referendum.

If I am an independent reporter, if I go leave there is a chance I can

get another chance at independence. get another chance at independence.

-- independence supporter. That is not true. We continue to build the

case for independence on its own merits. If there is a leave vote

across the UK, one of my concerns is that we end up in a direction of

political travel towards the right. Boris Johnson Nigel Farage even more

right wing than David Cameron. Rather than saying we do not want to

be a part of the right dressed, there is no logical case if you are

a supporter of independence and have an open and inclusive view of how

the world operates today there is no reason to vote to leave. Why is Jim

Sillars wrong? He pointed out that the countries in Europe did not do

much to help during the independence referendum. I have huge respect for

Jim Sillars. The first campaign I took part in was in 1988 and he won

then. He was the architect of the SNP's independence in Europe

physician. I think he is wrong, though. I am in passionate

politician. Countries increasingly have to work together to tackle

issues that no country can do by itself and I would want an

independent Scotland to stay in the European Union. Jim Sillars says

that some of the rhetoric about a right-wing Tory Government are

scaremongering. Does he have a point? What you have said about a

right-wing Tory Government is one possible scenario. The other is that

Labour will come to power. I accept that none of us know for certain

what is going to happen in the future, but I think we all make our

judgments. I am not the only one saying if there is a vote to leave

across the UK there is a likelihood that David Cameron will not survive

as Prime Minister and there is a likelihood that someone like Boris

Johnson will have to replace him. I do not think that is a huge leap of

imagination. I do not want to see Scotland be part of the Government

that contains Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage. Thank you. You invited

yourself back next week. I would be delighted to come back.

They used to say there were three kinds of lies:

But after last year's general election, some say they could have

That's because pollsters spectacularly failed to get

even close to predicting the actual result.

Since then, they claim to have adjusted and tweaked

their methodology so that similar errors shouldn't happen again.

We won't know whether it's worked until the results

are in, but to find out what they are predicting,

I'm joined now by MORI Scotland's Mark Diffley.

It is a bit unclear. John Curtice was making the point earlier with

Andrew Neil that because some of the polls were conducted before the

murder of Jo Cox we do not know what, if any, effect that has had.

We need to be cautious. There are some brought things to say from the

polls at the weekend, those we have seen in the last 24 hours. They tend

to show that they remain side across the UK have gained some ground in

the last couple of days. But there is a phenomenal here in many

referendums, lots of academic evidence, that the status quo option

does tend to get a boost in the last couple of days. John Curtice said it

could be that affect rather than the tragic events of the last few days

that are influencing the polls. Do you think the murder of Jo Cox would

have any effect at all? We know two things from the polls over the

weekend, although nothing about the effect of that incident on it. We

know that in one of the polls over the weekend those who are saying

they do not know are more inclined to vote to remain banned to leave,

although they have not made their minds up fully. That is what we saw

before the new independence referendum. On some of the questions

that lie behind the voting intention, particularly to do with

that lie behind the voting the economic effects, one of the

polls said that people thought they would be worse off if there was a

vote to leave. Perhaps there are some signs that the economic

arguments that they remain side have been repeating recently are starting

to have some effect and that would be consistent not just with the

independence referendum but also with other big constitutional

referendums we have seen across the world. I wonder if the events of the

last few days could affect the way that things go. It is perhaps not

unreasonable to suggest that it would be difficult to have a debate

about immigration in the next couple of days that was as intemperate as

the language we have had before. The more we talk about the economy the

better it is for remain and the more we talk about immigration the better

for the Leave campaign. In many of the polls, including a road, we saw

for the first time that immigration was the top concern in terms of what

issues people were thinking about when they came to vote. It is clear

that if there is a discussion about immigration that would appear to be

beneficial to the Leave campaign. If the argument remains in the economy,

that is where the Remain campaign have done better. Thank you for

joining us. It's time to look back at the events

of the past week and see what's Here with me now are

the Sunday Herald's Tom Gordon and the political commentator

Hamish Macdonell. In an appropriate at this stage...

Adonia still shocked at what happened last week but it is

appropriate to start asking, did you think it is going to have any effect

on what happens between now and the referendum, Hamish Macdonell? Yes, I

think it will. If you look at where we were at the time that Jo Cox was

murdered, the Leave campaign definitely had some momentum, they

were starting to build up a head of steam, there was panic in the Remain

campaign and everything has stopped. Too tedious, has happened. There is

the argument that you have from John Curtice and Mark Diffley earlier,

that cause of the polling was done before the murder of Jo Cox, it

could just be what they expected anyway, which was a reversal of the

status quo. In electoral politics like this,

momentum is everything, if you can get it and keep it going, it builds

and what that breed Casburn is broken the momentum that they Leave

campaign had and thrown the Leave campaign had Andrew Hill thing back

towards the starting point now. The other one that will suffer more as a

result of this and I also think that there is a sense of both sides being

on the defensive little and having to pawn down directory and I think

the rhetoric that we saw coming out of the Leave campaign up until that

point was more extreme and so the game will be on the defensive. --

tone. What you make of that, Tom?

I think it has rocked the leave side of some of the momentum but it has

I think it has rocked the leave side stopped the Remain side putting

their foot on the gas and getting the momentum. The polls can

boomerang in these type of referendums. There is a shift

shortly before the polling day from the status go to the change option

and then it tends to revert back to the status quo, we saw that in the

independence referendum and I think we are seeing that again. It can

also change the temple and the tone of this debate but I do not think it

will have a significant effect on the outcome. I think if any Remain

of additional strike to the outcome. I think if any Remain

Leave voters might feel insulted that they have been linked to this

management in Yorkshire and take offence and make damn sure that the

vote for Leave. Hamish, George Osborne was on

earlier but I did not hear him repeat his threat of the cuts.

There is no sign that it will be turned down massively but there will

be a different feel to the campaign, I believe. There is a feeling

throughout the whole country that things had got just a little bit too

heated and there was an awful lot more heat than light coming out. So

I think the politicians will have to react to that public mood and just

be a little bit more restrained in these last few days.

Tom Gordon, you heard what Nicola Sturgeon said, if you were a

passionate supporter and keep the inner -- and campaigner for

independence for Scotland, we do know what to do?

It is not as clear as has been made out. The SNP's case is that Scotland

is sufficiently different to the rest of the UK to justify a new

political settlement and it depends upon what Nicola Sturgeon wants. She

wants a result that would exaggerate and another thing that difference

but I think she wants to stay in the EU, she was any LEDs of the

evolution and youth spokesperson for the SNP. She once a Remain fought

overall but should there be a Brexit fought in the rest of the UK, the

best outcome for heart is a thumping great Remain vote in the rest of

Scotland because that underlined the difference and the mismatch between

Scotland and the rest of the UK. So if you want independence, if both

sides were to Vote Leave, the only concrete example they gave for a

trigger for an independence referendum would be a big Remain

vote for Scotland. If you are a passionate nationalist

would you be feeling similar? And Astley Castle we have seen a

definite change in tone from the First Minister. Before she had said

if there was any Leave thought that would be the trigger for a second

independence referendum. Now she has had to appeal directly to SNP voters

and said not to Vote Leave. That can only be because it has come to our

notice that there are people, even only be because it has come to our

have on the fringes of the pro-independence movement are

prepared to do that, then she does not want that. There has been a

definite change in tone. She has had to address that but Tom is correct,

what she wants is a massive Remain vote for Scotland and if there is a

Leave vote in the rest of the UK, there is a big difference that could

change things. What do you both think that either

side has to do to gain victory? It appears to be up in the air.

At this point it is about the repetition of message. It will all

be about the economy from the Remain side but the Leave sidewalk on down

the immigration debate. -- but the Leave will tone the immigration

debate. The 10% of the dog was in the middle

have a big say in this and the Remain calm have to go on the

security of the status quo. If they do that, they will be hoping that as

security of the status quo. If they in most referendums in the last two

days, people come back in most referendums in the last two

option. There will be a fight over that middle ground and that is what

Remain will do, I believe. Thank you both very much indeed.

I'll be back at the same time next week.