18/12/2016 Sunday Politics Scotland


18/12/2016

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LineFromTo

Morning, folks, and welcome to the Sunday Politics.

:00:40.:00:41.

Hard line remainers strike back at Brexit.

:00:42.:00:43.

Are they trying to overturn the result of June's referendum

:00:44.:00:46.

by forcing a second vote before we leave?

:00:47.:00:49.

Australia's man in London tells us that life outside the EU "can be

:00:50.:00:52.

pretty good" and that Brexit will "not be as hard as people say".

:00:53.:00:56.

Could leaving the EU free Britain to do more business

:00:57.:00:59.

It's been called "disgusting, dangerous and deadly"

:01:00.:01:05.

but how polluted is our air, how bad for our health,

:01:06.:01:08.

Also coming up: Alex Salmond tells of the things the

:01:09.:01:20.

Scottish Government could call a second independence referendum and

:01:21.:01:21.

win it. And with me in the Sunday Politics

:01:22.:01:28.

grotto, the Dasher, Dancer and Prancer of political

:01:29.:01:32.

punditry Iain Martin, They'll be delivering tweets

:01:33.:01:35.

throughout the programme. First this morning,

:01:36.:01:43.

some say they will fight for what they call a "soft Brexit",

:01:44.:01:49.

but now there's an attempt by those who campaigned for Britain to remain

:01:50.:01:53.

in the EU to allow the British people to change their minds -

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possibly with a second referendum - The Labour MEP Richard Corbett

:01:57.:01:59.

is revealed this morning to have tried to amend European

:02:00.:02:02.

Parliament resolutions. The original resolution called

:02:03.:02:04.

on the European Parliament to "respect the will

:02:05.:02:07.

of the majority of the citizens of the United Kingdom

:02:08.:02:10.

to leave the EU". He also proposed removing

:02:11.:02:26.

the wording "stress that this wish must be respected" and adding

:02:27.:02:31.

"while taking account of the 48.1% The amendments were

:02:32.:02:34.

proposed in October, but were rejected by a vote

:02:35.:02:46.

in the Brussels Constitutional Affairs Committee

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earlier this month. The report will be voted

:02:50.:02:51.

on by all MEPs in February. Well, joining me now from Leeds

:02:52.:02:53.

is the Labour MEP who proposed Good morning. Thanks for joining us

:02:54.:03:03.

at short notice. Is your aim to try and reverse what happened on June

:03:04.:03:09.

23? My aim with those amendments was simply factual. It is rather odd

:03:10.:03:13.

that these amendments of two months ago are suddenly used paper

:03:14.:03:18.

headlines in three very different newspapers on the same day. It

:03:19.:03:23.

smacks of a sort of concerted effort to try and slapped down any notion

:03:24.:03:29.

that Britain might perhaps want to rethink its position on Brexit as

:03:30.:03:34.

the cost of Brexit emerges. You would like us to rethink the

:03:35.:03:39.

position even before the cost urges? I get lots of letters from people

:03:40.:03:45.

saying how one, this was an advisory referendum won by a narrow majority

:03:46.:03:52.

on the basis of a pack of lies and a questionable mandate. But if there

:03:53.:03:54.

is a mandate from this referendum, it is surely to secure a Brexit that

:03:55.:03:58.

works for Britain without sinking the economy. And if it transpires as

:03:59.:04:03.

we move forward, that this will be a very costly exercise, then there

:04:04.:04:06.

will be people who voted leave who said Hang on, this is not what I was

:04:07.:04:11.

told. I was told this would save money, we could put it in the NHS,

:04:12.:04:16.

but if it is going to cost us and our Monday leg, I

:04:17.:04:30.

would the right to reconsider. But your aim is not get a Brexit that

:04:31.:04:34.

would work for Britain, your aim is to stop it? If we got a Brexit that

:04:35.:04:37.

would work for Britain, that would respect the mandate. But if we

:04:38.:04:40.

cannot get that, if it is going to be a disaster, if it is going to

:04:41.:04:43.

cost people jobs and cost Britain money, it is something we might want

:04:44.:04:46.

to pause and rethink. The government said it is going to come forward

:04:47.:04:50.

with a plan. That is good. We need to know what options to go for as a

:04:51.:04:57.

country. Do we want to stay in the single market, the customs union,

:04:58.:05:01.

the various agencies? And options should be costed so we can all see

:05:02.:05:05.

how much they cost of Brexit will be. If you were simply going to try

:05:06.:05:12.

and make the resolution is more illegal, why did the constitutional

:05:13.:05:17.

committee vote them down? This is a report about future treaty

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amendments down the road for years to come. This was not the main focus

:05:26.:05:31.

of the report, it was a side reference, in which was put the idea

:05:32.:05:37.

for Association partnerships. Will you push for the idea before the

:05:38.:05:48.

full parliament? I must see what the text is. You said there is a

:05:49.:05:53.

widespread view in labour that if the Brexit view is bad we should not

:05:54.:05:59.

exclude everything, I take it you mean another referendum. When you

:06:00.:06:04.

were named down these amendments, was this just acting on your own

:06:05.:06:10.

initiative, or acting on behalf of the Labour Party? I am just be

:06:11.:06:16.

humble lame-duck MEP in the European Parliament. It makes sense from any

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point of view that if the course of action you have embarked on turns

:06:22.:06:25.

out to be much more costly and disastrous than you had anticipated,

:06:26.:06:30.

that you might want the chance to think again. You might come to the

:06:31.:06:34.

same conclusion, of course, but you might think, wait a minute, let's

:06:35.:06:40.

have a look at this. But let's be clear, even though you are deputy

:06:41.:06:44.

leader of Labour in the European Parliament, you're acting alone and

:06:45.:06:52.

not as Labour Party policy? I am acting in the constitutional affairs

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committee. All I am doing is stating things which are common sense. If as

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we move forward then this turns out to be a disaster, we need to look

:07:01.:07:04.

very carefully at where we are going. But if a deal is done under

:07:05.:07:11.

Article 50, and we get to see the shape of that deal by the end of

:07:12.:07:15.

2019 under the two-year timetable, in your words, we won't know if it

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is a disaster or not until it is implemented. We won't be able to

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tell until we see the results about whether it is good or bad, surely?

:07:25.:07:33.

We might well be able to, because that has to take account of the

:07:34.:07:38.

future framework of relationships with the European Union, to quote

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the article of the treaty. That means we should have some idea about

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what that will be like. Will we be outside the customs union, for

:07:47.:07:49.

instance, which will be very damaging for our economy? Or will we

:07:50.:07:52.

have to stay inside and follow the rules without having a say on them.

:07:53.:07:58.

We won't know until we leave the customs union. You think it will be

:07:59.:08:02.

damaging, others think it will give us the opportunity to do massive

:08:03.:08:06.

trade deals. My case this morning is not what is right or wrong, we will

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not know until we have seen the results. We will know a heck of a

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lot more than we do now when we see that Article 50 divorce agreement.

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We will know the terms of the divorce, we will know how much we

:08:19.:08:22.

still have to pay into the EU budget for legacy costs. We will know

:08:23.:08:27.

whether we will be in the single market customs union or not. We will

:08:28.:08:31.

know about the agencies. We will know a lot of things. If the deal on

:08:32.:08:36.

the table looks as if it will be damaging to Britain, then Parliament

:08:37.:08:40.

will be in its rights to say, wait a minute, not this deal. And then you

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either renegotiate or you reconsider the whole issue of Brexit or you

:08:45.:08:49.

find another solution. We need to leave it there but thank you for

:08:50.:08:52.

joining us. Iain Martin, how serious is the

:08:53.:09:01.

attempt to in effect an wind what happened on June 23? I think it is

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pretty serious and that interview illustrates very well the most

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damaging impact of the approach taken by a lot of Remainers, which

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is essentially to say with one breath, we of course accept the

:09:15.:09:20.

result, but with every action subsequent to that to try and

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undermine the result or try and are sure that the deal is as bad as

:09:24.:09:27.

possible. I think what needed to happen and hasn't happened after

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June 23 is you have the extremists on both sides and you have in the

:09:33.:09:37.

middle probably 70% of public opinion, moderate leaders, moderate

:09:38.:09:41.

Remainers should be working together to try and get British bespoke deal.

:09:42.:09:52.

But moderate Leavers will not take moderate Remainers seriously if this

:09:53.:09:56.

is the approach taken at every single turn to try and rerun the

:09:57.:10:06.

referendum. He did not say whether it was Labour policy? That was a

:10:07.:10:10.

question which was ducked. I do not think it is Labour Party policy. I

:10:11.:10:14.

think most people are in a morass in the middle. I think the screaming

:10:15.:10:20.

that happens when anybody dares to question or suggest that you might

:10:21.:10:24.

ever want to think again about these things, I disagree with him about

:10:25.:10:28.

having another referendum but if he wants to campaign for that it is his

:10:29.:10:33.

democratic right to do so. If you can convince enough people it is a

:10:34.:10:37.

good idea then he has succeeded. But the idea that we would do a deal and

:10:38.:10:42.

then realise this is a really bad deal, let's not proceed, we will not

:10:43.:10:47.

really know that until the deal is implemented. What our access is to

:10:48.:10:53.

the single market, whether or not we are in or out of the customs union

:10:54.:10:57.

which we will talk about in a minute, what immigration policy we

:10:58.:11:01.

will have, whether these are going to be good things bad things, surely

:11:02.:11:04.

you have got to wait for four, five, to be good things bad things, surely

:11:05.:11:09.

six years to see if it has worked or not? Yes, and by which stage

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Parliament will have voted on it and there will be no going back from it,

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or maybe there will. We are talking now about the first three months of

:11:18.:11:22.

2019. That is absolutely the moment when Parliament agrees with Theresa

:11:23.:11:30.

May or not. One arch remain I spoke to, and arch Remainiac, he said that

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Theresa May will bring this to Parliament in 2019 and could say I

:11:41.:11:49.

recommend that we reject it. What is he on or she? Some strong chemical

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drugs! The point is that all manner of things could happen. I don't

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think any of us take it seriously for now but the future is a very

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long way away. Earlier, the trade Secretary Liam Fox was asked if we

:12:07.:12:10.

would stay in the customs union after Brexit.

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There would be limitations on what we would do in terms of tariff

:12:14.:12:19.

setting which could limit the deals we would do, but we want to look at

:12:20.:12:25.

all the different deals. There is hard Brexit and soft Brexit as if it

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is a boiled egg we are talking about. Turkey is in part of the

:12:29.:12:33.

customs union but not other parts. What we need to do is look at the

:12:34.:12:41.

cost. This is what I picked up. The government knows it cannot remain a

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member of the single market in these negotiations, because that would

:12:46.:12:49.

make us subject to free movement and the European Court. The customs

:12:50.:12:53.

union and the Prime Minister 's office doesn't seem to be quite as

:12:54.:12:58.

binary, that you can be a little bit in and a little bit out, but I would

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suggest that overall Liam Fox knows to do all the trade deals we want to

:13:02.:13:06.

do we basically have to be out. But what he also seems to know is that

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is a minority view in Cabinet. He said he was not going to give his

:13:11.:13:16.

opinion publicly. There is still an argument going on about it in

:13:17.:13:25.

Cabinet. When David Liddington struggled against Emily Thornbury

:13:26.:13:28.

PMQs, he did not know about the customs union. What is apparent is

:13:29.:13:31.

Theresa May has not told him what to think about that. If we stay in the

:13:32.:13:38.

customs union we cannot do our own free trade deals. We are behind the

:13:39.:13:45.

customs union, the tariff barriers set by Europe? Not quite. Turkey is

:13:46.:13:50.

proof of the pudding. There are limited exemptions but they can do

:13:51.:13:55.

free trade with their neighbours. Not on goods. They are doing a trade

:13:56.:14:03.

deal with Pakistan at the moment, it relies on foreign trade investment

:14:04.:14:06.

but Europe negotiates on turkey's behalf on the major free-trade

:14:07.:14:11.

deals. This is absolutely why the customs union will be the fault line

:14:12.:14:15.

for the deal we are trying to achieve. Interestingly, I thought

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Liam Fox suggested during that interview that he was prepared to

:14:20.:14:23.

suck up whatever it was. I think he was saying there is still an

:14:24.:14:29.

argument and he intends to win it. He wants to leave it because he

:14:30.:14:37.

wants to do these free-trade deals. There is an argument in the cabinet

:14:38.:14:41.

about precisely that. The other thing to consider is in this country

:14:42.:14:46.

we have tended to focus too much on the British angle in negotiations,

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but I think the negotiations are going to be very difficult. You look

:14:51.:14:53.

at the state of the EU at the moment, you look at what is

:14:54.:14:57.

happening in Italy, France, Germany, look at the 27. It is possible I

:14:58.:15:04.

think that Britain could design a bespoke sensible deal but then it

:15:05.:15:09.

becomes very difficult to agree which is why I ultimately think we

:15:10.:15:16.

are heading for a harder Brexit. It will be about developing in this

:15:17.:15:17.

country. So, we've had a warning this week

:15:18.:15:22.

that it could take ten years to do a trade deal

:15:23.:15:25.

with the EU after Brexit. But could opportunities to expand

:15:26.:15:27.

trade lie elsewhere? Australia was one of the first

:15:28.:15:29.

countries to indicate its willingness to do a deal

:15:30.:15:31.

with the UK and now its High Commissioner in London has told

:15:32.:15:34.

us that life outside the EU He made this exclusive film

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for the Sunday Politics. My father was the Australian High

:15:38.:15:53.

Commissioner in the early 70s when the UK joined

:15:54.:15:55.

the European Union, Now I'm in the job,

:15:56.:15:57.

the UK is leaving. Australia supported

:15:58.:16:06.

Britain remaining a member of the European Union,

:16:07.:16:07.

but we respect the decision that Now that the decision has been made,

:16:08.:16:11.

we hope that Britain will get on with the process

:16:12.:16:16.

of negotiating their exit from the European Union and make

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the most of the opportunities that Following the referendum decision,

:16:21.:16:24.

Australia approached the British Government

:16:25.:16:30.

with a proposal. We offered, when the time was right,

:16:31.:16:33.

to negotiate a free trade agreement. The British and Australian

:16:34.:16:36.

governments have already established a working group to explore a future,

:16:37.:16:42.

ambitious trade agreement once A free trade agreement will provide

:16:43.:16:45.

great opportunities for consumers Australian consumers could purchase

:16:46.:16:57.

British-made cars for less We would give British

:16:58.:17:02.

households access to cheaper, Our summer is during your winter,

:17:03.:17:08.

so Australia could provide British households with fresh produce

:17:09.:17:14.

when the equivalent British or Australian households would have

:17:15.:17:17.

access to British products Free-trade agreements

:17:18.:17:24.

are also about investment. The UK is the second-largest source

:17:25.:17:37.

of foreign investment in Australia. By the way, Australia also invests

:17:38.:17:41.

over ?200 billion in the UK, so a free trade agreement

:17:42.:17:48.

would stimulate investment, But, by the way, free-trade

:17:49.:17:50.

agreements are not just about trade and investment,

:17:51.:17:56.

they are also about geopolitics. Countries with good trade relations

:17:57.:18:00.

often work more closely together in other fields including security,

:18:01.:18:03.

the spread of democracy We may have preferred

:18:04.:18:07.

the UKto remain in the EU, We may have preferred the UK

:18:08.:18:21.

to remain in the EU, but life outside as we know can

:18:22.:18:24.

be pretty good. We have negotiated eight free-trade

:18:25.:18:26.

agreements over the last 12 years, including a free-trade agreement

:18:27.:18:29.

with the United States This is one of the reasons why

:18:30.:18:30.

the Australian economy has continued to grow over the last 25 years

:18:31.:18:42.

and we, of course, are not Australia welcomes Theresa May's

:18:43.:18:45.

vision for the UK to become a global We are willing to help

:18:46.:18:56.

in any way we can. Welcome to the programme. The

:18:57.:19:25.

Australian government says it wants to negotiate an important trade deal

:19:26.:19:29.

with the UK as efficiently and promptly as possible when Brexit is

:19:30.:19:35.

complete. How prompt is prompt? There are legal issues obviously.

:19:36.:19:40.

The UK, for as long as it remains in the EU, cannot negotiate individual

:19:41.:19:46.

trade deals. Once it leaves it can. We will negotiate a agreement with

:19:47.:19:50.

the UK when the time is right, by which we mean we can do preliminary

:19:51.:19:56.

examination. Are you talking now about the parameters? We are talking

:19:57.:20:01.

already, we have set up a joint working group with the British

:20:02.:20:05.

Government and we are scoping the issue to try to understand what

:20:06.:20:08.

questions will arise in any negotiation. But we cannot have

:20:09.:20:14.

formally a negotiation. Until the country is out. Why is there no

:20:15.:20:21.

free-trade deal between Australia and the European Union? It is a long

:20:22.:20:24.

and tortuous story. Give me the headline. Basically Australian

:20:25.:20:31.

agriculture is either banned or hugely restricted in terms of its

:20:32.:20:37.

access to the European Union. So we see the European Union, Australia's,

:20:38.:20:40.

is a pretty protectionist sort of organisation. Now we are doing a

:20:41.:20:46.

scoping study on a free-trade agreement with the European Union

:20:47.:20:50.

and we hope that next year we can enter into negotiations with them.

:20:51.:20:55.

But we have no illusions this would be a very difficult negotiation, but

:20:56.:21:00.

one we are giving priority to. Is there not a danger that when Britain

:21:01.:21:06.

leaves the EU the EU will become more protectionist? This country has

:21:07.:21:10.

always been the most powerful voice for free trade. I hope that does not

:21:11.:21:15.

happen, but the reason why we wanted Britain to remain in the European

:21:16.:21:20.

Union is because it brought to the table the whole free-trade mentality

:21:21.:21:26.

which has been an historic part of Britain's approach to international

:21:27.:21:29.

relations. Without the UK in the European Union you will lose that.

:21:30.:21:34.

It is a very loud voice in the European Union and you will lose

:21:35.:21:38.

that voice and that will be a disadvantage. The figure that jumped

:21:39.:21:44.

out of me in the film is it to you only 15 months to negotiate a

:21:45.:21:47.

free-trade deal with the United States. Yes, the thing is it is

:21:48.:21:52.

about political will. A free-trade agreement will be no problem unless

:21:53.:21:58.

you want to protect particular sectors of your economy. In that

:21:59.:22:03.

case there was one sector the Americans insisted on protecting and

:22:04.:22:07.

that was their sugar industry. In the end after 15 months of

:22:08.:22:11.

negotiation two relatively free trading countries have fixed up

:22:12.:22:17.

nearly everything. But we had to ask would be go ahead with this

:22:18.:22:21.

free-trade agreement without sugar west we decided to do that. Other

:22:22.:22:26.

than that it was relatively easy to negotiate because we are both

:22:27.:22:31.

free-trade countries. With the UK you cannot be sure, but I do not

:22:32.:22:34.

think a free-trade agreement would take very long to negotiate with the

:22:35.:22:40.

UK because the UK would not want to put a lot of obstacles in the way to

:22:41.:22:44.

Australia. Not to give away our hand, we would not want to put a lot

:22:45.:22:49.

of obstacles in the way of British exports. The trend in recent years

:22:50.:22:55.

is to do big, regional trade deals, but President-elect Donald Trump has

:22:56.:23:00.

made clear the Pacific trade deal is dead. The transatlantic trade deal

:23:01.:23:05.

is almost dead as well. The American election put a nail in the coffin

:23:06.:23:08.

and the French elections could put another nail in the coffin. Are we

:23:09.:23:14.

returning to a world of lateral trade deals, country with country

:23:15.:23:17.

rather than regional blocs? Not necessarily. In the Asia Pacific we

:23:18.:23:25.

will look at multilateral trade arrangements and even if the

:23:26.:23:28.

transpacific partnership is not ratified by the Americans, we have

:23:29.:23:32.

other options are there. However, our approach has been the ultimate

:23:33.:23:38.

would be free-trade throughout the world which is proving hard to

:23:39.:23:43.

achieve. Secondly, if we can get a lot of countries engaged in a

:23:44.:23:46.

free-trade negotiation, that is pretty good if possible. But it is

:23:47.:23:53.

more difficult. But we do bilateral trade agreements. We have one with

:23:54.:23:58.

China, Japan, the United States, Singapore, and the list goes on, and

:23:59.:24:03.

they have been hugely beneficial to Australia. You have been dealing

:24:04.:24:11.

with the EU free deal, what lessons are there? How quickly do you think

:24:12.:24:14.

Britain could do a free-trade deal with the EU if we leave? Well, there

:24:15.:24:21.

is a completely different concept involved in the case of Britain and

:24:22.:24:25.

the EU and that is at the moment there are no restrictions on trade.

:24:26.:24:30.

So you and the EU would be talking about whether you will direct

:24:31.:24:35.

barriers to trade. We are outsiders and we do not get too much involved

:24:36.:24:40.

in this debate except to say we do not want to see the global trade

:24:41.:24:46.

system disrupted by the direction of tariff barriers between the United

:24:47.:24:50.

Kingdom, the fifth biggest economy in the world, and the European

:24:51.:24:56.

Union. Our expectation is not just the British but the Europeans will

:24:57.:25:00.

try to make the transition to Brexit as smooth as possible particularly

:25:01.:25:05.

commercially. Say yes or no if you can. If Britain and Australia make a

:25:06.:25:10.

free-trade agreement, would that include free movement of the

:25:11.:25:13.

Australian and the British people? We will probably stick with our

:25:14.:25:20.

present non-discriminatory system. Australia does not discriminate

:25:21.:25:24.

against any country. The European Union's free movement means you

:25:25.:25:28.

discriminate against non-Europeans. Probably not.

:25:29.:25:33.

It could lead to a ban on diesel cars, prevent the building

:25:34.:25:36.

of a third runway at Heathrow, and will certainly make it

:25:37.:25:38.

more expensive to drive in our towns and cities.

:25:39.:25:40.

Air pollution has been called the "public health crisis

:25:41.:25:43.

of a generation" - but just how serious is the problem?

:25:44.:25:45.

40,000 early deaths result from air pollution every year in the UK.

:25:46.:25:59.

Almost 10,000 Londoners each year die prematurely.

:26:00.:26:05.

It seems at times we can get caught up in alarming assertions

:26:06.:26:11.

about air pollution, that this is a public health

:26:12.:26:14.

emergency, that it is a silent killer, coming from politicians,

:26:15.:26:18.

But how bad is air quality in Britain really?

:26:19.:26:25.

Tony Frew is a professor in respiratory medicine and works

:26:26.:26:29.

at Brighton's Royal Sussex County Hospital.

:26:30.:26:32.

He has been looking into the recent claims

:26:33.:26:34.

It's a problem and it affects people's health.

:26:35.:26:40.

But when people start talking about the numbers

:26:41.:26:42.

of deaths here, I think they are misusing the statistics.

:26:43.:26:44.

There have been tremendous improvements in air quality

:26:45.:26:49.

There is a lot less pollution than there used to be

:26:50.:26:54.

and none of that is coming through in the public

:26:55.:26:58.

So what does Professor Frew make of the claim that alarming levels

:26:59.:27:02.

of toxicity in the air in the UK causes 40,000 deaths each year?

:27:03.:27:05.

It is not 40,000 people who should have air pollution

:27:06.:27:07.

on their death certificate, or 40,000 people who

:27:08.:27:10.

It's a lot of people who had a little bit of life shortening

:27:11.:27:15.

To examine these figures further we travelled to Cambridge to visit

:27:16.:27:21.

I asked him about the data on which these claims

:27:22.:27:26.

They come from a study on how mortality rates in US cities

:27:27.:27:31.

First of all, it is important to realise that that 40,000 figure

:27:32.:27:38.

29,000, which are due to fine particles, and another 11,000

:27:39.:27:43.

I will just talk about this group for a start.

:27:44.:27:52.

These are what are known as attributable deaths.

:27:53.:27:55.

Known as virtual deaths, they come from a complex statistical model.

:27:56.:28:00.

Quite remarkably it all comes from just one number and this

:28:01.:28:03.

was based on a study of US cities and they found out that

:28:04.:28:07.

by monitoring these cities over decades that the cities which had

:28:08.:28:11.

a higher level of pollution had a higher mortality rate.

:28:12.:28:17.

They estimated that there was a 6% increased risk of dying

:28:18.:28:23.

each year for each small increase in pollution.

:28:24.:28:28.

So this is quite a big figure, but it is important to realise

:28:29.:28:31.

it is only a best estimate and the committee that advises

:28:32.:28:34.

the government says that this figure could be between 1% and 12%.

:28:35.:28:40.

So this 6% figure is used to work out the 29,000

:28:41.:28:43.

Yes, through a rather complex statistical model.

:28:44.:28:49.

And a similar analysis gives rise to the 11,000 attributable deaths

:28:50.:28:53.

How much should we invest in cycling?

:28:54.:29:01.

Should we build a third runway at Heathrow?

:29:02.:29:03.

We need reliable statistics to answer those questions,

:29:04.:29:07.

but can we trust the way data is being used by campaigners?

:29:08.:29:11.

I think there are people who have such a passion for the environment

:29:12.:29:16.

and for air pollution that they don't really

:29:17.:29:18.

see it as a problem if they are deceiving the public.

:29:19.:29:24.

Greenpeace have been running a campaign claiming that breathing

:29:25.:29:27.

London's air is the equivalent of smoking 15 cigarettes a day.

:29:28.:29:29.

If you smoke 15 cigarettes a day through your adult life,

:29:30.:29:35.

that will definitely take ten years off your life expectancy.

:29:36.:29:37.

If you are poor and you are in social class five,

:29:38.:29:40.

compared to social class one, that would take seven

:29:41.:29:42.

If you are poor and you smoke, that will take 17 years off your life.

:29:43.:29:47.

Now, we are talking about possibly, if we could get rid of all

:29:48.:29:50.

of the cars in London and all of the road transport,

:29:51.:29:53.

we could make a difference of two micrograms per metre squared in air

:29:54.:29:56.

pollution which might save you 30 days of your life.

:29:57.:30:01.

There is no doubt that air pollution is bad for you,

:30:02.:30:04.

but if we exaggerate the scale of the problem and the impact

:30:05.:30:07.

on our health, are we at risk of undermining the case for making

:30:08.:30:10.

And we are joined now by the Executive Director

:30:11.:30:20.

You have called pollution and national crisis and a health

:30:21.:30:39.

emergency. Around the UK are levels increasing or falling? They are

:30:40.:30:43.

remaining fairly static in London. Nationally? If you look at the

:30:44.:30:53.

studies on where air pollution is measured, in 42 cities around the

:30:54.:30:58.

UK, 38 cities were found to be breaking the legal limit on air

:30:59.:31:02.

pollution so basically all of the cities were breaking the limit so if

:31:03.:31:07.

you think eight out of ten people live in cities, obviously, this is

:31:08.:31:11.

impacting a lot of people around the UK. We have looked at in missions of

:31:12.:31:15.

solvent dioxide, they have fallen and since 1970, nitrogen dioxide is

:31:16.:31:25.

down 69%. Let me show you a chart. There are the nitrogen oxides which

:31:26.:31:31.

we have all been worried about. That chart shows a substantial fall from

:31:32.:31:36.

the 1970s, and then a really steep fall from the 1980s. That is

:31:37.:31:41.

something which is getting better. You have to look at it in the round.

:31:42.:31:48.

If you look at particulates, and if you look at today's understanding of

:31:49.:31:55.

the health impact. Let's look at particulates. We have been really

:31:56.:32:04.

worried about what they have been doing to our abilities to breathe

:32:05.:32:10.

good air, again, you see substantial improvement. Indeed, we are not far

:32:11.:32:14.

from the Gothenberg level which is a very high standard. What you see is

:32:15.:32:23.

it is pretty flat. I see it coming down quite substantially. Over the

:32:24.:32:28.

last decade it is pretty flat. If you look at the World Health

:32:29.:32:32.

Organisation guidelines, actually, these are at serious levels and they

:32:33.:32:37.

need to come down. We know the impact, particularly on children, if

:32:38.:32:40.

you look at what is happening to children and children's lungs, if

:32:41.:32:44.

you look at the impact of asthma and other impacts on children in cities

:32:45.:32:50.

and in schools next to main roads where pollution levels are very

:32:51.:32:53.

high, the impact of very serious. You have many doctors, professors

:32:54.:32:57.

and many studies by London University showing this to be true.

:32:58.:33:03.

The thing is, we do not want pollution. If we can get rid of

:33:04.:33:08.

pollution, let's do it. And also we also have to get rid of CO2 which is

:33:09.:33:13.

causing climate change. We are talking air pollution at the moment.

:33:14.:33:17.

The point is there is not still more to do, it is clear there is and

:33:18.:33:21.

there is no question about that, my question is you seem to deny that we

:33:22.:33:26.

have made any kind of progress and that you also say that air pollution

:33:27.:33:31.

causes 40,000 deaths a year in the UK, that is not true. The figure is

:33:32.:33:38.

40,000 premature deaths is what has been talked about by medical staff.

:33:39.:33:47.

Your website said courses. It causes premature deaths. What we are

:33:48.:33:52.

talking about here is can we solve the problem of air pollution? If air

:33:53.:33:57.

pollution is mainly being caused by diesel vehicles then we need to

:33:58.:34:01.

phase out diesel vehicles. If there are alternatives and clean Turner

:34:02.:34:05.

tips which will give better quality of air, better quality of life and

:34:06.:34:08.

clean up our cities, then why don't we take the chance to do it? You had

:34:09.:34:12.

the Australian High Commissioner on this programme earlier. He said to

:34:13.:34:20.

me earlier, why is your government supporting diesel? That is the most

:34:21.:34:26.

polluting form of transport. That may well be right but I am looking

:34:27.:34:32.

at Greenpeace's claims. You claim it causes 40,000 deaths, it is a figure

:34:33.:34:37.

which regularly appears. Let me quote the committee on the medical

:34:38.:34:43.

effects of air pollutants, it says this calculation, 40,000 which is

:34:44.:34:52.

everywhere in Greenpeace literature, is not an estimate of the number of

:34:53.:34:55.

people whose untimely death is caused entirely by air pollution,

:34:56.:34:59.

but a way of representing the effect across the whole population of air

:35:00.:35:04.

pollution when considered as a contributory factor to many more

:35:05.:35:09.

individual deaths. It is 40,000 premature deaths. It could be

:35:10.:35:19.

premature by a couple of days. It could me by a year. -- it could be

:35:20.:35:22.

by a year. It could also be giving children asthma and breathing

:35:23.:35:24.

difficulties. We are talking about deaths. It could also cause stroke

:35:25.:35:34.

and heart diseases. Medical experts say we need to deal with this. Do

:35:35.:35:42.

you believe air pollution causes 40,000 deaths a year. I have defined

:35:43.:35:50.

that. You accept it does not? It leads to 40,000 premature deaths.

:35:51.:36:00.

But 40,000 people are not killed. You say air pollution causes 40,000

:36:01.:36:04.

deaths each year on your website. I have just explained what I mean by

:36:05.:36:09.

that in terms of premature deaths. The question is, are we going to do

:36:10.:36:13.

something about that? Air pollution is a serious problem. It is mainly

:36:14.:36:18.

caused by diesel. If we phased diesel out it will solve the problem

:36:19.:36:22.

of air pollution and deal with the wider problem of climate change. I

:36:23.:36:28.

am not talking about climate change this morning. Let's link to another

:36:29.:36:35.

claim... Do you want to live in a clean city? Do you want to breathe

:36:36.:36:40.

clean air? Yes, don't generalise. Let's stick to your claims. You have

:36:41.:36:46.

also said living in London on your life is equivalent to smoking 50

:36:47.:36:50.

cigarettes a day. That is not true either. What I would say is if you

:36:51.:36:57.

look at passive smoking, it is the equivalent of I don't know what the

:36:58.:37:00.

actual figure is, I can't remember offhand, but it is the equivalent

:37:01.:37:03.

effect of about ten cigarettes being smoked passively. The question is in

:37:04.:37:09.

terms of, you are just throwing me out all of these things... I am

:37:10.:37:15.

throwing things that Greenpeace have claimed. Greenpeace have claimed

:37:16.:37:19.

that living in London is equivalent of smoking 15 cigarettes a day and

:37:20.:37:24.

that takes ten years off your life. Professor Froome made it clear to us

:37:25.:37:27.

that living in London your whole life with levels of pollution does

:37:28.:37:31.

take time off your life but it takes nine months of your life. Nine

:37:32.:37:36.

months is still too much, I understand that, but it is not ten

:37:37.:37:40.

years and that is what you claim. I would suggest you realise that is a

:37:41.:37:44.

piece of propaganda because you claim on the website, you have taken

:37:45.:37:49.

it down. I agree it has been corrected and I agree with what the

:37:50.:37:52.

professor said that maybe it takes up to a year off your life, but the

:37:53.:37:58.

thing is, there are much more wider issues as well, in terms of the

:37:59.:38:01.

impact on air pollution, and in terms of the impact on young

:38:02.:38:08.

children. We can argue about the facts... But these are your claims,

:38:09.:38:13.

this is why I am hitting it to you. It does not get away from the

:38:14.:38:17.

underlying issue that air pollution is a serious problem. We are not

:38:18.:38:22.

arguing for a moment that it is not. Do you think the way you exaggerate

:38:23.:38:26.

things, put false claims, in the end, for of course we all agree

:38:27.:38:31.

with, getting the best air we can, you undermine your credibility? I

:38:32.:38:37.

absolutely do not support false claims and if mistakes have been

:38:38.:38:40.

made then mistakes have been made and they will be corrected. I think

:38:41.:38:45.

the key issue is how we are going to deal with air pollution. Clearly,

:38:46.:38:49.

diesel is the biggest problem and we need to work out a way how we can

:38:50.:38:56.

get away from diesel as quickly and fast as possible. Comeback and see

:38:57.:39:00.

us in the New Year and we will discuss diesel. Thank you.

:39:01.:39:02.

It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

:39:03.:39:08.

Good morning, and welcome to Sunday Politics Scotland.

:39:09.:39:10.

The Scottish Government prepares to reveal its Brexit plans.

:39:11.:39:15.

Alex Salmond tells us they could call and win another

:39:16.:39:18.

And 2016 - a historic year in Scottish Politics, from A to Z.

:39:19.:39:29.

Nearly six months on from the vote to leave the European Union,

:39:30.:39:32.

the Scottish Government is about to reveal its Brexit plans.

:39:33.:39:35.

On Tuesday, it's widely reported that the proposals will be based

:39:36.:39:38.

on the so-called Norway Model - where Scotland would remain

:39:39.:39:41.

in the European Free Trade area and a member of the single market.

:39:42.:39:45.

But how realistic is that, and where does it fit with the UK

:39:46.:39:48.

And it can be lonely at the top. Theresa May was in Brussels for a

:39:49.:40:11.

European summit this week, the EU's 27 of these leaders met to discuss

:40:12.:40:17.

Brexit without the PM. Downing said Brexit without the PM. Downing said

:40:18.:40:24.

-- Downing Street said it reinforced the view that Brexit means Brexit.

:40:25.:40:30.

Mrs May was joined by Ivan Rogers. He had to slip out of the car while

:40:31.:40:35.

she created eyed devotion, after it was reported he thought a post

:40:36.:40:40.

Brexit trade deal would take ten years. And many are awaiting the

:40:41.:40:50.

First Minister of Scotland's Brexit plan to keep Scotland in a single

:40:51.:40:55.

market. But Nicola Sturgeon's opponents say it is a nonstarter

:40:56.:40:58.

because it would trap the nation in a deal over which it would have no

:40:59.:41:03.

influence. So what does all that mean? Continued uncertainty over the

:41:04.:41:04.

future of the UK. Just before we came

:41:05.:41:07.

on air I spoke to the SNP Foreign Affairs Spokesperson,

:41:08.:41:09.

Alex Salmond. First of all, there is much talk of

:41:10.:41:19.

people in the SNP, you and Nicola Sturgeon, about how the British

:41:20.:41:22.

catchment is obliged to consider your proposals that you are about to

:41:23.:41:26.

publish. What does that mean? Are you saying they have two keep either

:41:27.:41:30.

Britain or Scotland in the single market all that is a breach of their

:41:31.:41:37.

operation? That is certainly the First Minister's view, and her

:41:38.:41:41.

proposal. And things looked like they are turning in that direction.

:41:42.:41:46.

The opinion poll this morning for the first time showed people across

:41:47.:41:52.

the UK giving priority to the single market. In Scotland it is 2-1 to

:41:53.:42:01.

that. So there is a position to try to force that on the Government. So

:42:02.:42:06.

whatever happens in terms of the UK, the First Minister wants to be clear

:42:07.:42:10.

how Scotland cameras aim remain within the single market. I'm

:42:11.:42:17.

curious about all the talk of another referendum on independence.

:42:18.:42:21.

If the Scottish Government doesn't get some sort of deal, that is. Is

:42:22.:42:26.

that the red Line for you? That Scotland would one way or another

:42:27.:42:29.

have to be in the single market all they would be another referendum?

:42:30.:42:34.

What matters is what Nicola Sturgeon's red lines are. And she

:42:35.:42:40.

has enunciated a simple one, two, three. One, keep Scotland within the

:42:41.:42:51.

second -- single market. And if the UK is unwilling to listen to our

:42:52.:42:58.

representations, it is likely that there will be a referendum within

:42:59.:43:02.

the next two-year is. I'm curious as to whether you see that as the red

:43:03.:43:08.

line. There could other deals. Repatriated and of powers from the

:43:09.:43:10.

European Union to the Scottish Parliament for example. Whether

:43:11.:43:15.

Britain was a segment can say we have given you lots. Are you saying

:43:16.:43:18.

it is the single market that has been the Red Line? Nicola Sturgeon

:43:19.:43:25.

has put forward her priorities. That is staying in the single market,

:43:26.:43:29.

equal treatment for other Europeans, and the rights of Scottish workers.

:43:30.:43:36.

I'm sure in the strategy document that is to be published this week,

:43:37.:43:40.

she will be outlining a range of other things that Scotland requires,

:43:41.:43:45.

particularly the powers that we will need to secure Scotland's position.

:43:46.:43:52.

There are certain powers, as you are aware, fishing, agriculture, some

:43:53.:43:56.

control of immigration, that would be required within the single market

:43:57.:44:00.

place for Scotland to operate within it, as well as the full powers of

:44:01.:44:06.

Scottish independence. Again, I don't understand. Are you saying

:44:07.:44:10.

Scotland having control of for example a fisheries policy, would do

:44:11.:44:14.

as a compromise was to mark that seems to be the opposite of staying

:44:15.:44:18.

in the single market. Scotland could get all sorts of powers by breaking

:44:19.:44:22.

away, but are you saying staying in this market is the main thing? It

:44:23.:44:28.

isn't the opposite. We just need to glance across the Northsea, to see a

:44:29.:44:35.

country called Norway which is within the single marketplace but

:44:36.:44:37.

has powers over its fishing industry. As we saw this week,

:44:38.:44:44.

fishing is very interesting, because it is probably the sole real

:44:45.:44:45.

fishing is very interesting, because industry in the rest recent European

:44:46.:44:51.

referendum which was in favour of exiting the European Union. As we

:44:52.:44:58.

saw from the House of Lords report, fishing depends on access to the

:44:59.:45:01.

single marketplace in order to sell our products. It would be great to

:45:02.:45:12.

get 20% more quarter -- quota but if there is 20% more tax any benefit

:45:13.:45:21.

will be dissipated. The single market is important to every aspect

:45:22.:45:24.

of the Scottish economy. Do you think you could win an independence

:45:25.:45:36.

referendum at the moment? Yes. Why? Last time, when I was First Minister

:45:37.:45:40.

and embarked on this process, support for independence was 28%. In

:45:41.:45:49.

2012 we ended up at 45%. I don't think Nicola Sturgeon would have any

:45:50.:45:53.

compunction about calling a referendum. What it depends on is

:45:54.:45:58.

the arguments. And in a situation where the UK Government is

:45:59.:46:03.

determined despite every opportunity to sever Scotland's links to the EU,

:46:04.:46:10.

I think many people who were previously sceptical about

:46:11.:46:14.

independence would come to the Yes side. And you think you would win?

:46:15.:46:25.

Yes. I take your point that at the beginning of the last campaign

:46:26.:46:30.

support was lower. But surely because of the last campaign people

:46:31.:46:35.

have made up their minds. There aren't a 20% who haven't made up

:46:36.:46:38.

have made up their minds. There their minds. Therefore wouldn't it

:46:39.:46:41.

be more difficult to get you over the line? I think there are a lot of

:46:42.:46:46.

people with an open mind about Scottish independence. I think there

:46:47.:46:50.

are people who are passionately in favour, and strongly against. But

:46:51.:46:54.

there are still lots of folk in Scotland who would regard Scotland's

:46:55.:46:58.

best rarity and securing their position, the rights of workers, the

:46:59.:47:06.

treatment of fellow Europeans, access to the marketplace, as

:47:07.:47:11.

priorities which if they could only be claimed by independence, could be

:47:12.:47:18.

persuaded to vote in that direction. With careful argument and all Nicola

:47:19.:47:25.

Sturgeon's powers of argument. The only problem the SNP might have is

:47:26.:47:29.

not a reader polls show that the majority of people want to stay in

:47:30.:47:34.

the UK, they also show the majority of people have no appetite for

:47:35.:47:39.

another referendum. And they also show, as I mentioned, that more than

:47:40.:47:49.

2000 -- two thirds of Scots want to maintain their position in the

:47:50.:47:54.

single marketplace and want jobs Empress parity over control of

:47:55.:48:07.

immigration. We are saying that it is a strong position to debate the

:48:08.:48:14.

independence issue. Nicola Sturgeon, correctly, has said we want the UK

:48:15.:48:18.

to stay in the single marketplace. If that is not possible we are

:48:19.:48:22.

publishing a strategy that shows how Scotland can do that. And if the UK

:48:23.:48:28.

Government says they are not interested, if they have a full

:48:29.:48:33.

Philip Hammond attitude, then it would be a different context and we

:48:34.:48:38.

would be in a strong position to have the next referendum. If the

:48:39.:48:41.

British Government turns round to the Scottish Government and says we

:48:42.:48:54.

are not going to stay in the single market... Nicola Sturgeon has talked

:48:55.:49:01.

about this. What powers do you want as a result of Brexit? As someone

:49:02.:49:10.

who reads up on these things, if you wait to see the strategy document 's

:49:11.:49:14.

Nicola is publishing, the first strategy to emerge from any

:49:15.:49:18.

political leader in these islands, I think you will find those questions

:49:19.:49:24.

answered in full in enormous detail, if I know her. The sun is coming up

:49:25.:49:29.

over your bridge, so we should leave you to it. Happy Christmas from the

:49:30.:49:36.

north-east of Scotland. Well, listening to

:49:37.:49:39.

that is Adam Tomkins Was he saying that Scotland has

:49:40.:49:53.

say in the single market or they will have another referendum? It did

:49:54.:49:57.

appear that he was saying that, which is quite different what I've

:49:58.:50:01.

from what I think Nicola Sturgeon would want him to say. And it shows

:50:02.:50:06.

again that the SNP are all over the place on this. Only two weeks ago at

:50:07.:50:12.

the Scottish affairs committee said the only way they could stay was by

:50:13.:50:17.

staying the member states and the UK... Was what he was saying any

:50:18.:50:24.

different from what Nicola Sturgeon said this morning? We don't know

:50:25.:50:31.

what she has said. Details are still to come. But what the Scottish

:50:32.:50:39.

Conservatives want is for Scotland and the whole of the UK to have as

:50:40.:50:43.

full access to and participation in the single market as is possible,

:50:44.:50:47.

consistent with the result of the referendum on the 23rd of June.

:50:48.:50:52.

Which is not necessarily what trees are made's Government wants. Let us

:50:53.:50:59.

be clear, what the Scottish Conservatives want... It's not up to

:51:00.:51:04.

you to decide. It is up to the UK to decide, because it is their decision

:51:05.:51:09.

to leave the EU. A couple of years ago Scotland voted to remain in the

:51:10.:51:14.

UK. And a few months ago the UK voted to leave the EU. The

:51:15.:51:21.

difficulty Mr Salmond has is that they are in denial about the

:51:22.:51:24.

referendum results. They are not random opinion polls put out in the

:51:25.:51:28.

field, that they can choose to abide by or ignore... If you are a

:51:29.:51:35.

democratic politician you have to abide by them. You say the Scottish

:51:36.:51:39.

Conservative position is that we should stay in the single market...

:51:40.:51:47.

We want as full and access and participation in the single market

:51:48.:51:52.

as possible. There is no such thing as membership of the single market

:51:53.:51:57.

unless you are a member state of the EU. And we just voted to leave. Are

:51:58.:52:02.

you checking that David Mundell is arguing that in Cabinet? We are all

:52:03.:52:07.

singing from the same hymn sheet. arguing that in Cabinet? We are all

:52:08.:52:12.

There is no difference of opinion and there is no change in policy. We

:52:13.:52:19.

want full access and participation as possible. I think that is exactly

:52:20.:52:26.

what the Theresa May Government is working towards. But part of your

:52:27.:52:31.

reply to add Alex Salmond would be that single market, or not single

:52:32.:52:39.

market, Brexit means single market is not as clear a statement as it

:52:40.:52:46.

might be. Absolutely. That is why a sensible Government like this one is

:52:47.:52:51.

going slowly in order to figure out what access to the single market...

:52:52.:52:58.

You were not in or out, you can have varying degrees of access depending

:52:59.:53:03.

what is in the national interest. Everybody says, it has always been a

:53:04.:53:11.

European union of bits and pieces. Switzerland's access is different

:53:12.:53:16.

from Norway's is different from Canada's... Lastly, and briefly, as

:53:17.:53:27.

a Scottish Conservative, do you think it is more likely that the

:53:28.:53:32.

British Government will say to the Scottish Government, look, whatever

:53:33.:53:35.

the single market views you have, here is a deal, you will control

:53:36.:53:41.

fisheries, some of VAT, agriculture policy... Are you really going to

:53:42.:53:45.

have another referendum if we offer you all of this? All of this is part

:53:46.:53:51.

of the negotiation to come. It is plain that the UK Government is not

:53:52.:53:54.

going to be rewritten Irving any fresh powers to Westminster. Some

:53:55.:54:02.

powers will go to Westminster some will go to Hollywood. This will --

:54:03.:54:12.

Holyrood. If the Scottish Government would stop sabre rattling about a

:54:13.:54:18.

referendum, we need to pull together and not pull apart.

:54:19.:54:21.

Brexit was one of the defining political events of 2016.

:54:22.:54:24.

The EU referendum in June followed the Holyrood election.

:54:25.:54:26.

Here's our A-Z of the last 12 months.

:54:27.:54:42.

I think the more transparency bike we can have, the better. Before we

:54:43.:54:50.

go any further we need to have a cold, calm, look at this. If a

:54:51.:54:56.

company or individual avoids tax they should not be able to benefit

:54:57.:54:58.

from public contracts. I will do everything I can as Prime

:54:59.:55:43.

Minister to steady the ship over the coming weeks and months, but I do

:55:44.:55:47.

not think it would be right for me to try to be the captain that steers

:55:48.:55:50.

our country to its next destination. This is a truly historic deal. It is

:55:51.:57:25.

based on the principles I set out in earlier legislation... That will

:57:26.:57:26.

pave the way for the Scottish Parliament to become one of the most

:57:27.:57:29.

accountable parliament is in the world. It is based on the same

:57:30.:57:34.

approach that I have used for setting all devolves taxes.

:57:35.:57:40.

I will watch you from afar and wish you well for your future and the

:57:41.:57:56.

There is no greater cause than to serve that of the people of this

:57:57.:58:13.

country. And so with that it is from goodbye from me for now.

:58:14.:58:57.

We have concluded that the UK chose to join the invasion of Iraq before

:58:58.:59:05.

the peaceful options for disarmament had been exhausted.

:59:06.:59:30.

I don't know the details of plan B, we don't have a plan B, we have a

:59:31.:59:39.

plan A, we will stay in the European Union as an active member.

:59:40.:59:49.

What makes you better to run the NHS? I'm not a big fan. Sorry. I

:59:50.:00:04.

categorically voted in Parliament tonight. I saw the vote registered.

:00:05.:00:45.

Ken Macdonald Tauscher is elected as Presiding Officer of the Scottish

:00:46.:00:49.

Parliament. The measures I have announced today

:00:50.:01:04.

means the total support of the Scottish Government and through

:01:05.:01:07.

local taxation provides an increase in spending our local government

:01:08.:01:15.

services, not of 59.6 million, but of 240.6 million three point 3%.

:01:16.:01:44.

I can confirm today that the independence referendum bill will be

:01:45.:01:56.

published for consultation next week.

:01:57.:04:05.

I have never been and over wanted to be a career politician. My aim and

:04:06.:04:14.

being in politics was to get Britain out of the European Union. The

:04:15.:04:35.

country needs a strong Ukip now more than ever before, before F Ukip

:04:36.:04:50.

ceases to be on the electoral law, then there will be no impetus on

:04:51.:04:53.

Mere. The Scottish Government will

:04:54.:05:50.

undertake a three-month period where we will take input from practitioner

:05:51.:05:56.

's as well as parents, charities, as well as young people, those who

:05:57.:06:00.

support the named person policy, and those who have concerns.

:06:01.:06:30.

Well, joining me now to discuss the year in politics

:06:31.:06:32.

is Severin Carrell, Scotland editor for The Guardian, the UK

:06:33.:06:34.

editor of The Big Issue, Paul McNamee, and Lindsay McIntosh,

:06:35.:06:37.

Let's start with Alex Salmond, he was bullish about the independence

:06:38.:06:48.

referendum. Is he right or do you think that is the Scottish

:06:49.:06:55.

Government's you? I would think that on the face of it the numbers would

:06:56.:06:58.

be in his favour. The idea that they took the Yes vote from 32 to 33% up

:06:59.:07:07.

to 45% suggest they should be to get the line up to 50. But I do not

:07:08.:07:11.

think Nicola Sturgeon is at one with them on the idea that this is a slam

:07:12.:07:16.

dunk. They have a lot to do, a lot of critical questions from 2014 that

:07:17.:07:22.

are hanging over them and even more critical questions over Brexit

:07:23.:07:29.

hanging over them, and time is running out and they have a set of

:07:30.:07:34.

pressures to manage, their own party, the yes movement and the

:07:35.:07:36.

political reality that they are now left in. It is far trickier with

:07:37.:07:42.

those facts. The other issue is that everything could be more ambiguous

:07:43.:07:51.

now. Alex Salmond suggested that Scotland or Britain did not stay in

:07:52.:07:54.

the single market could lead to another referendum vote. What does

:07:55.:08:00.

the SNP see you then. Also, the other thing is the British

:08:01.:08:05.

government could save here are more powers, over fisheries and

:08:06.:08:08.

agriculture, even if they do not stay in the single market. Will you

:08:09.:08:13.

still go through with their referendum even though we're giving

:08:14.:08:18.

you all those powers? There are all these unanswered questions,

:08:19.:08:20.

different parts of the deal that need to be worked out between the UK

:08:21.:08:25.

and the EU and Scotland and the UK. Article 50 will be triggered at the

:08:26.:08:32.

start of next year, that will be a two-year process. When does Nicola

:08:33.:08:36.

Sturgeon feel that she will have enough clarity about what Scotland

:08:37.:08:40.

will get to say to Scots, this is fine, or to go to the polls and

:08:41.:08:45.

trigger independence too. The line has been over the past year, we will

:08:46.:08:52.

have an independence referendum if the polls show that we can win it.

:08:53.:09:01.

He did not seem at all swayed by that. Yes, you could say there is a

:09:02.:09:08.

margin of error. It is not going up at the moment. It really is a major

:09:09.:09:15.

gamble to hold a second independence referendum with the numbers as they

:09:16.:09:19.

are at the moment. What about better exit macro itself poll? -- Brexit.

:09:20.:09:30.

With each week, with each piece of debate it seems messier and messier.

:09:31.:09:34.

Part of the problem with the Scottish Government is that if the

:09:35.:09:40.

pollution a particular way with Brexit, the opposition could argue,

:09:41.:09:45.

hold on you have got to govern the country before you start to think

:09:46.:09:46.

about what Brexit is. I think that country before you start to think

:09:47.:09:50.

is the case for a lot of other regions in Britain as well, whether

:09:51.:09:55.

it is Northern Ireland or Wales, they have their own particular

:09:56.:10:00.

issues and problems to deal with. Brexit seems to dominate our

:10:01.:10:05.

thoughts. The and bolts of government for people is broadly

:10:06.:10:10.

being left of it. And I think that is the problem. A big issue is two

:10:11.:10:15.

views, one, the British government has a cunning plan which it is

:10:16.:10:21.

trying to keep for its negotiating tactics. And the other is they do

:10:22.:10:25.

not have a clue they are doing. They are altering up on television

:10:26.:10:29.

studios, like Liam Fox did this morning, to punt their own version.

:10:30.:10:36.

The Tory party, the referendum was supposed to sort out the Tory

:10:37.:10:43.

party's internal warfare. What it has done it as it has exposed the

:10:44.:10:48.

warfare inside the Tory party, like Liam Fox who believe that Britain is

:10:49.:10:52.

much better as close to the United States is possible and away from

:10:53.:10:56.

Europe, and those who would rather we did not leave the EU at all.

:10:57.:11:02.

These unresolved problems are being worked out in public. I suspect they

:11:03.:11:07.

are working at various strategies in how to work things through. They are

:11:08.:11:12.

claiming 50 different teams. The problem is nobody knows quite how

:11:13.:11:16.

all the different actors and Europe will behave because the EU may be

:11:17.:11:21.

acting collectively in terms of Brussels and Strasbourg, behaving as

:11:22.:11:25.

a unified force. Germany and Spain... One of the big stories may

:11:26.:11:30.

not be whatever the British Spain... One of the big stories may

:11:31.:11:32.

government decides to do, maybe what response they get. There are also

:11:33.:11:37.

critical European elections taking place. Their own internal forces and

:11:38.:11:43.

a lot of people think this depends on what Angela Merkel wants to do.

:11:44.:11:46.

As the Germans think that keeping the UK as close as possible to

:11:47.:11:52.

Europe is in the EU's interests, that will influence really what will

:11:53.:11:57.

ends up happening. We have all the complications also to do with

:11:58.:12:00.

Ireland as well. The other thing that has changed in Scotland, but we

:12:01.:12:10.

had an election. And the SNP don't have the majority any more and

:12:11.:12:13.

everyone went on as if nothing had changed. But when the budget was

:12:14.:12:17.

produced last week, it becomes an issue, because they need to do some

:12:18.:12:21.

deals? The most important thing on the budget was the U turn on the

:12:22.:12:25.

council funding. The original plan was that council tax would get

:12:26.:12:34.

increased, but it would be put into a central pot and distributed. At

:12:35.:12:38.

the 11th hour he did a U-turn and said that individual councils could

:12:39.:12:41.

keep their funding. It is significant that it recognises that

:12:42.:12:45.

we are a minority government once again and the SNP cannot get

:12:46.:12:49.

everything their own way. It was commendable to make that change. Do

:12:50.:12:55.

you think they will do a deal? Yes, I think they will. The Greens are

:12:56.:12:59.

who we should be looking at in this. They need abstentions, not support.

:13:00.:13:06.

Paul, you mentioned the opposition. Where are they? Labour certainly

:13:07.:13:17.

have. When we looked at the list, it could have been Jeremy Corbyn. Where

:13:18.:13:23.

is he? At key points. Kezia Dugdale as well. The key points throughout

:13:24.:13:29.

this year, the Labour Party have no when they're speaking with any

:13:30.:13:33.

authority with leadership with clear policy. They have allowed themselves

:13:34.:13:37.

to become a pressure group rather than a party for government. And

:13:38.:13:39.

that is a tricky place for all of us than a party for government. And

:13:40.:13:47.

to be in, when that regulation going on around Brexit. Thank you all very

:13:48.:13:49.

much for coming in. That's all from us for this

:13:50.:13:54.

week and this year. Until then, Merry Christmas

:13:55.:13:58.

and a Happy New Year.

:13:59.:14:01.

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