Browse content similar to 16/03/2014. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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Morning folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. George Osborne's fifth | :00:37. | :00:44. | |
Budget will offer more tax relief for the lower paid but not for | :00:45. | :00:47. | |
middle income earners being thrust into the 40p tax bracket. That's our | :00:48. | :00:49. | |
top story. Ed Balls says millions of people | :00:50. | :00:54. | |
aren't feeling any benefit from the recovery. We'll discuss the economy | :00:55. | :00:56. | |
with big political beasts from Labour, the Conservatives, and the | :00:57. | :01:04. | |
Lib Dems. Now that Ed Miliband has effectively ruled out an in/out EU | :01:05. | :01:07. | |
referendum, how does UKIP deal with Tory claims that a vote for UKIP | :01:08. | :01:08. | |
In the south`east, Labour h`s a means no chance | :01:09. | :01:18. | |
In the south`east, Labour h`s a political mountain to climb with no | :01:19. | :01:22. | |
MPs in the region. As the p`rty gathers in | :01:23. | :01:22. | |
of cycling. The three areas of London getting a cash boost to try | :01:23. | :01:25. | |
something different. And with me as always our top | :01:26. | :01:36. | |
political panel - Nick Watt, Helen Lewis and Janan Ganesh. They'll be | :01:37. | :01:39. | |
tweeting their thoughts using the hashtag #bbcsp throughout the | :01:40. | :01:43. | |
programme. So, just three months after his last major financial | :01:44. | :01:46. | |
statement, George Osborne will be at the despatch box again on Wednesday, | :01:47. | :01:52. | |
delivering his 2014 Budget. The Chancellor has already previewed his | :01:53. | :01:54. | |
own speech, pledging to build what he calls a "resilient economy". The | :01:55. | :02:05. | |
message I will give in the Budget is the economic plan is working but the | :02:06. | :02:09. | |
job is far from done. We need to build resilient economy which means | :02:10. | :02:12. | |
addressing the long-term weaknesses in Britain that we don't export | :02:13. | :02:16. | |
enough, invest enough, build enough, make enough. Those are the things I | :02:17. | :02:20. | |
will address because we want Britain to earn its way in the world. George | :02:21. | :02:24. | |
Osborne's opposite number, Ed Balls, has also been talking ahead of the | :02:25. | :02:27. | |
Budget. He says not everyone is feeling the benefit of the economic | :02:28. | :02:30. | |
recovery, and again attacked the Government's decision to reduce the | :02:31. | :02:36. | |
top rate of tax from 50 to 45%. George Osborne is only ever tough | :02:37. | :02:40. | |
when he's having a go at the week and the voiceless. Labour is willing | :02:41. | :02:43. | |
to face up to people on the highest incomes and say, I'm sorry, | :02:44. | :02:47. | |
justifying a big tax cut at this time is not fair. We will take away | :02:48. | :02:53. | |
the winter allowance from the richer pensioners, and I think that's the | :02:54. | :02:57. | |
right thing to do. George Osborne might agree, but he's not allowed to | :02:58. | :03:03. | |
say so. That was the Chancellor and the shadow chancellor. Janan, it | :03:04. | :03:06. | |
seems like we are in a race against time. No one argues that the | :03:07. | :03:10. | |
recovery is not under way, in fact it looks quite strong after a long | :03:11. | :03:14. | |
wait, but will it feed through to the living standards of ordinary | :03:15. | :03:19. | |
people in time for the May election? They only have 14 months to do it. | :03:20. | :03:24. | |
The big economic variable is business investment. Even during the | :03:25. | :03:28. | |
downturn, businesses hoarded a lot of cash. The question is, are they | :03:29. | :03:32. | |
confident enough to release that into investment and wages? Taking on | :03:33. | :03:37. | |
new people, giving them higher pay settlements. That could make the | :03:38. | :03:40. | |
difference and the country will feel more prosperous and this time next | :03:41. | :03:46. | |
year. But come to think of it, it strikes me, that how anticipated it | :03:47. | :03:50. | |
is, it's the least talked about Budget for many years. I think that | :03:51. | :03:54. | |
is because the economy has settled down a bit, but also because people | :03:55. | :03:58. | |
have got used to the idea that there is no such thing as a giveaway. | :03:59. | :04:02. | |
Anything that is a tax cut will be taken away as a tax rise or spending | :04:03. | :04:07. | |
cut. That's true during the good times but during fiscal | :04:08. | :04:10. | |
consolidation, it's avoidable. - unavoidable. There is a plus and | :04:11. | :04:17. | |
minus for the Conservatives here. 49% of people think the government | :04:18. | :04:21. | |
is on roughly the right course, but only 16% think that their financial | :04:22. | :04:24. | |
circumstances will improve this year. It will be a tough one for the | :04:25. | :04:29. | |
Labour Party to respond to. I agree with Janan. Everyone seems bored | :04:30. | :04:35. | |
with the run-up to the Budget. The front page of the Sunday Times was | :04:36. | :04:40. | |
about fox hunting, the front page of the Sunday Telegraph was about EU | :04:41. | :04:45. | |
renegotiation. Maybe we are saying this because there have not been | :04:46. | :04:50. | |
many leaks. We have got used to them, and most of the George Osborne | :04:51. | :04:55. | |
chat on Twitter was about how long his tie was. Freakishly long. I | :04:56. | :04:59. | |
wouldn't dare to speculate why. Anything we should read into that? I | :05:00. | :05:06. | |
don't know. For a long while there was no recovery, then it was it is a | :05:07. | :05:13. | |
weak recovery, and now, all right, it's strong but not reaching | :05:14. | :05:16. | |
everyone in the country. That is where we are in the debate. That's | :05:17. | :05:22. | |
right, and the Conservative MPs are so anxious and they are making | :05:23. | :05:28. | |
George Osborne announcing the rays in the personal allowance will go | :05:29. | :05:32. | |
up, saying it might go up to 10 750 from next year, and Conservative MPs | :05:33. | :05:40. | |
say that that's OK but we need to think about the middle voters. | :05:41. | :05:44. | |
People are saying the economy is recovering but no one is feeling it | :05:45. | :05:47. | |
in their pocket. These are people snagged in at a 40p tax rate. The | :05:48. | :05:51. | |
Tories are saying these are our people and we have to get to them. | :05:52. | :05:56. | |
He has given the Lib Dems more than they could have hoped for on raising | :05:57. | :06:02. | |
the threshold. Why is he not saying we have done a bit for you, now we | :06:03. | :06:06. | |
have to look after our people and get some of these people out of that | :06:07. | :06:13. | |
40% bracket? Partly because the Lib Dems have asked for it so | :06:14. | :06:15. | |
insistently behind-the-scenes. Somebody from the Treasury this week | :06:16. | :06:19. | |
told me that these debates behind the scenes between the Lib Dems and | :06:20. | :06:22. | |
Tories are incredibly tenacious and get more so every year. The Lib Dems | :06:23. | :06:27. | |
have been insistent about going further on the threshold. The second | :06:28. | :06:32. | |
reason is that the Tories think the issue can work for them in the next | :06:33. | :06:37. | |
election. They can take the credit. If they enthusiastically going to | :06:38. | :06:41. | |
?12,000 and make it a manifesto pledge, they can claim ownership of | :06:42. | :06:46. | |
the policy. The Liberal Democrats want to take it to 12,500, which | :06:47. | :06:50. | |
means you are getting into minimum wage territory. It's incredibly | :06:51. | :06:55. | |
expensive and the Tories are saying that maybe you would be looking at | :06:56. | :07:00. | |
the 40p rate. The Tories have played as well. There have been authorised | :07:01. | :07:04. | |
briefings about the 40p rate, and Cameron and Osborne have said that | :07:05. | :07:07. | |
their priority was helping the lowest paid which is a useful | :07:08. | :07:10. | |
statement to make and it appeals to the UKIP voters who are the | :07:11. | :07:16. | |
blue-collar workers. And we are right, the economy will determine | :07:17. | :07:21. | |
the next election? You assume so. It was ever that is. It didn't in 992 | :07:22. | :07:24. | |
or 1987. It did in 1992. Ed Miliband's announcement last week | :07:25. | :07:34. | |
that a Labour government would not hold a referendum on Europe unless | :07:35. | :07:37. | |
there's another transfer of powers from Britain to Brussels has | :07:38. | :07:39. | |
certainly clarified matters. UKIP say it just shows the mainstream | :07:40. | :07:44. | |
parties can't be trusted. The Conservatives think it means UKIP | :07:45. | :07:47. | |
voters might now flock back to them as the only realistic chance of | :07:48. | :07:50. | |
securing a referendum. Giles Dilnot reports. | :07:51. | :07:54. | |
When it comes to Europe and Britain's relation to it, the | :07:55. | :07:58. | |
question is whether the answer is answered by a question. To be in or | :07:59. | :08:02. | |
not to be in, that is the question, and our politicians have seemed less | :08:03. | :08:05. | |
interested in question itself but whether they want to let us answer | :08:06. | :08:09. | |
it. Labour clarified their position last week. There will be no transfer | :08:10. | :08:21. | |
of powers without an in out referendum, without a clear choice | :08:22. | :08:24. | |
as to whether Britain will stay in the EU. That seems yes to a | :08:25. | :08:30. | |
referendum, but hold on. I believe it is unlikely that this lock will | :08:31. | :08:34. | |
be used in the next Parliament. So that's a no. The Conservatives say | :08:35. | :08:37. | |
yes to asking, in 2017, if re-elected, but haven't always. In | :08:38. | :08:47. | |
2011, 81 Tory MPs defied the PM by voting for a referendum on EU | :08:48. | :08:50. | |
membership: the largest rebellion against a Tory prime minister over | :08:51. | :08:53. | |
Europe. Prompted by a petition from over 100,000 members of the public. | :08:54. | :09:03. | |
The wrong question at the wrong time said the Foreign Secretary of a | :09:04. | :09:06. | |
coalition Government including selfie-conciously-pro European Lib | :09:07. | :09:08. | |
Dems, who had a referendum pledge in their 2010 manifesto, but only in | :09:09. | :09:11. | |
certain circumstances. So we have the newspapers, and the public | :09:12. | :09:14. | |
meeting leaflets. UKIP have always wanted the question put regardless. | :09:15. | :09:17. | |
But Labour's new position may change things and The Conservatives think | :09:18. | :09:25. | |
so. I think it does, because, you know, we are saying very clearly, | :09:26. | :09:31. | |
like UKIP, we want a referendum but only a Conservative government can | :09:32. | :09:36. | |
deliver it because most suffer largest would say it is possible in | :09:37. | :09:41. | |
the first past the post system to have a UKIP government -- | :09:42. | :09:50. | |
sophologists. And then it's easy for as to say that if a UKIP vote lets | :09:51. | :09:58. | |
in a Conservative government, then they won't hold a referendum. UKIP | :09:59. | :10:03. | |
seem undaunted by the clarifications of the other parties, campaigning | :10:04. | :10:07. | |
like the rest but with a "tell it how it is, just saying what you re | :10:08. | :10:10. | |
thinking, we aren't like them" attitude. They seem more worried | :10:11. | :10:16. | |
about us and what we want, and I don't see that in the other parties. | :10:17. | :10:21. | |
In parts of the UK, like South Essex, it's a message they think is | :10:22. | :10:27. | |
working. They are taking the voters for granted again and people have | :10:28. | :10:31. | |
had enough. People are angry, they see people saying they will get a | :10:32. | :10:38. | |
vote on the European Union, but then it just comes down the road. They | :10:39. | :10:43. | |
were quick to capitalise on the announcements, saying only the | :10:44. | :10:48. | |
Conservatives will give you say so does it change things? Not really. | :10:49. | :10:54. | |
We have been talking about a referendum and having a debate on | :10:55. | :10:58. | |
the European Union for years, and the other parties are playing catch | :10:59. | :11:02. | |
up. They have a trust issue. Nobody trusts them on the European Union | :11:03. | :11:06. | |
and that is why people come to us. Who the average UKIP voter is, or | :11:07. | :11:09. | |
how they voted before is complicated, and what dent they | :11:10. | :11:12. | |
might make on Conservative and Labour votes in 2015 is trickier | :11:13. | :11:14. | |
still, but someone's been crunching the numbers anyway. We reckon it is | :11:15. | :11:23. | |
between 25 and 30% of the electorate broadly share the UKIP motivation, | :11:24. | :11:26. | |
so to top out at that level would be difficult. That's an awful lot of | :11:27. | :11:30. | |
voters, but it's not the majority, and this is the reason why the main | :11:31. | :11:35. | |
parties can't afford to just openly appealed to the UKIP electorate too | :11:36. | :11:38. | |
hard because the elections are won and lost amongst the other 70%, the | :11:39. | :11:43. | |
middle-class, the graduate, the younger, ethnic minorities. An | :11:44. | :11:49. | |
appeal to the values of UKIP voters will alienate some of the other | :11:50. | :11:52. | |
groups, and they are arguably more significant in winning the election. | :11:53. | :11:56. | |
Whatever, the numbers UKIPers seem doggedly determined to dig away at | :11:57. | :11:59. | |
any support the other parties have previously enjoyed. | :12:00. | :12:02. | |
Giles Dilnot reporting. UKIP's leader, Nigel Farage, joins me now | :12:03. | :12:05. | |
for the Sunday Interview. Nigel Farage, welcome back. Good | :12:06. | :12:22. | |
morning. So the Labour Party has shot a fox. If Ed Miliband is the | :12:23. | :12:25. | |
next by Minister, there will not be a referendum customer there's a long | :12:26. | :12:29. | |
way between now and the next election, and Conservative party | :12:30. | :12:33. | |
jobs and changes. We had a cast iron guarantee of a referendum from | :12:34. | :12:36. | |
camera, then he three line whip people to vote against it, and now | :12:37. | :12:40. | |
they are for it. What the Labour Party has done is open up a huge | :12:41. | :12:44. | |
blank to us, and that is what we will go for in the European | :12:45. | :12:48. | |
elections this coming year in May. I think there is a very strong chance | :12:49. | :12:51. | |
that Labour will match the Conservative pledge by the next | :12:52. | :12:55. | |
general election. There may be, but at the moment he has ruled it out, | :12:56. | :13:00. | |
and if he does not change his mind and goes into the election with the | :13:01. | :13:03. | |
policy as it is, the only chance of a referendum is a Tory government. | :13:04. | :13:10. | |
If you think the Tories will form a majority, which I think is unlikely. | :13:11. | :13:14. | |
Remember, two thirds of our voters would never vote Conservative | :13:15. | :13:17. | |
anyway. There is still this line of questioning that assumes UKIP voters | :13:18. | :13:22. | |
are middle-class Tories. We have some voters like that, but most of | :13:23. | :13:25. | |
them are coming to us from Labour, some from the Lib Dems and a lot of | :13:26. | :13:31. | |
nonvoters. But it come the election you failed to change Mr Miliband's | :13:32. | :13:37. | |
line, I repeat, the only chance of a referendum, if you want a | :13:38. | :13:40. | |
referendum, if that is what matters, and the polls suggest it doesn't | :13:41. | :13:44. | |
matter to that many people, but if that is what matters, the only way | :13:45. | :13:47. | |
you can get one is to vote Conservative. No, because you have a | :13:48. | :13:52. | |
situation in key marginals, especially where all three parties | :13:53. | :13:56. | |
are getting a good share, where we will see, and this depends a lot on | :13:57. | :14:00. | |
the local elections and the European elections, there are target | :14:01. | :14:07. | |
constituencies where UKIP has a reasonably good chance of winning a | :14:08. | :14:10. | |
seat, and that will change the agenda. Every vote for UKIP makes a | :14:11. | :14:17. | |
Tory government less likely. Arab voters are not Tory. Only a third of | :14:18. | :14:20. | |
the UKIP boat comes from the Conservative party -- our voters are | :14:21. | :14:27. | |
not Tory. -- the UKIP vote. It was mentioned earlier, about blue-collar | :14:28. | :14:31. | |
voters. We pick up far more Labour Party and nonvoters than | :14:32. | :14:33. | |
conservatives. On the balance of what the effect of the UKIP boat | :14:34. | :14:37. | |
is, the Tories should worry about us, they should worry about the fact | :14:38. | :14:41. | |
they have lost faith with their own electorate. Even if there is a | :14:42. | :14:46. | |
minority Ed Miliband government it means no referendum. Labour and the | :14:47. | :14:49. | |
Liberal Democrats are now at one on the matter. The next election is in | :14:50. | :14:54. | |
a few weeks time, the European elections. What happens in those | :14:55. | :14:58. | |
elections will likely change the party stands and position on a | :14:59. | :15:02. | |
referendum. The fact that Ed Miliband has said this means, for | :15:03. | :15:06. | |
us, our big target on the 22nd of May will be the Labour voters in the | :15:07. | :15:10. | |
Midlands and northern cities, and if we do hammer into that boat and we | :15:11. | :15:14. | |
are able to beat Labour on the day, there's a good chance of their | :15:15. | :15:23. | |
policy changing. One poll this morning suggests Labour is close to | :15:24. | :15:31. | |
you at 28, the Conservatives down at 21, the Lib Dems down at eight. You | :15:32. | :15:38. | |
are taking votes from the Conservatives and the Liberal | :15:39. | :15:41. | |
Democrats. We are certainly taking votes from the Lib Dems but that is | :15:42. | :15:49. | |
comparing the poll with one year ago when I don't think most people knew | :15:50. | :15:54. | |
what the question really was. You seem to be in an impossible position | :15:55. | :15:59. | |
because the better you do in a general election, the less chance | :16:00. | :16:05. | |
there will be a referendum by 2 20. No, look at the numbers. Only a | :16:06. | :16:10. | |
third of our voters are Conservatives. When we have polled | :16:11. | :16:16. | |
voters that have come to us, we asked them if there was no UKIP | :16:17. | :16:20. | |
candidate who would you vote for, less than one in five said | :16:21. | :16:25. | |
Conservative. Less than one in five UKIP voters would be tempted to vote | :16:26. | :16:30. | |
Conservative under any circumstances so the arithmetic does not suggest | :16:31. | :16:36. | |
we are the Conservative problem it suggests we are hurting all of the | :16:37. | :16:39. | |
parties and the reason the Tories are in trouble is because they have | :16:40. | :16:44. | |
lost their traditional base. Why do you think Nick Clegg is debating | :16:45. | :16:51. | |
Europe? I think they are in trouble, at 8% they could be wiped | :16:52. | :16:59. | |
out, they could go from 12 to nothing and I think it is a chance | :17:00. | :17:04. | |
for Nick Clegg to raise their profile. They are fringe party with | :17:05. | :17:10. | |
respect to this contest so I see why he wants to do it. One of our big | :17:11. | :17:15. | |
criticisms is that we have not been able to have a full debate on | :17:16. | :17:19. | |
national television on the alternatives of the European Union | :17:20. | :17:24. | |
so I am looking forward to it. How are you preparing? I think you can | :17:25. | :17:38. | |
be over scripted with these things. Are you not doing mock debates? No, | :17:39. | :17:44. | |
I am checking my facts and figures and making sure that I can show the | :17:45. | :17:48. | |
British people that in terms of jobs, we would be far better off not | :17:49. | :17:54. | |
being within the European Union not being within its rule book, not | :17:55. | :17:58. | |
suffering from some of the green taxes they are putting on the | :17:59. | :18:04. | |
manufacturing industry. The idea that 3 million jobs are at risk I | :18:05. | :18:10. | |
want to show why that is nonsense. Who do you think is playing you in | :18:11. | :18:16. | |
their mock debates? They probably went to the pub and found someone! | :18:17. | :18:23. | |
We will see. You have promised to do whatever it takes to fund your | :18:24. | :18:27. | |
European election campaign, how much has been given so far? Just give it | :18:28. | :18:34. | |
a few weeks and you will see what Paul is planning to do. He has made | :18:35. | :18:40. | |
a substantial investment in the campaign already. How much? I'm not | :18:41. | :18:49. | |
answering that for now. We are well on our way to a properly funded | :18:50. | :18:53. | |
campaign and our big target will be the big cities and the working vote | :18:54. | :19:00. | |
in those communities. Your deputy chairman Neil Hamilton is another | :19:01. | :19:04. | |
former Tory, he says so far we haven't seen the colour of his | :19:05. | :19:09. | |
money. Exactly two weeks ago, and things have changed since then. Mr | :19:10. | :19:16. | |
Sykes has written a cheque since then? Yes. This morning's papers | :19:17. | :19:25. | |
saying you will be asking MEPs to contribute ?50,000 each, is that | :19:26. | :19:33. | |
true? Over the next five years, yes. Not for the European campaign. So | :19:34. | :19:39. | |
lack of money will not be an excuse. We will have a properly funded | :19:40. | :19:44. | |
campaign. How we raise the kind of money needed to fund the general | :19:45. | :19:48. | |
election afterwards is another question. What is UKIP's policy on | :19:49. | :19:59. | |
paying family members? We don't encourage it and I didn't employ any | :20:00. | :20:04. | |
family member for years. My wife ended up doing the job and paid for | :20:05. | :20:10. | |
the first seven years of my job She is paid now? Until May, then she | :20:11. | :20:17. | |
comes off the payroll am which leaves me with a huge problem. In | :20:18. | :20:25. | |
2004 you said, UKIP MEPs will not employ wives and there will be no | :20:26. | :20:31. | |
exceptions. An exception was made because I became leader of the | :20:32. | :20:35. | |
National party as well as a leader of the group in European | :20:36. | :20:39. | |
Parliament. Things do change in life, and you can criticise me for | :20:40. | :20:43. | |
whatever you like, but I cannot be criticised for not having a big | :20:44. | :20:49. | |
enough workload. No, but you didn't employ your wife when you had told | :20:50. | :20:58. | |
others not to do it your party. Nobody else in my party has a big | :20:59. | :21:01. | |
job in Europe and the UK. We made the exception for this because of | :21:02. | :21:06. | |
very unusual circumstances. It also looks like there was a monetary | :21:07. | :21:11. | |
calculation. Listen to this clip from a BBC documentary in 2000. It | :21:12. | :21:18. | |
is a good job. I worked it out because so much of what you get is | :21:19. | :21:24. | |
after tax that if you used the secretarial allowances to pay your | :21:25. | :21:27. | |
wife on top of the other games you can play, I reckon this job in | :21:28. | :21:35. | |
Stirling term is over a quarter of ?1 million a year. That is what you | :21:36. | :21:38. | |
would need to earn working for Goldman Sachs or someone like that. | :21:39. | :21:45. | |
I agree with that. More importantly the way you really make money in the | :21:46. | :21:48. | |
European Parliament is being their five days a week, because you sign | :21:49. | :21:53. | |
in every day, you get 300 euros every day, and that is how people | :21:54. | :21:59. | |
maxed out. The criticism of me is that I am not there enough so | :22:00. | :22:04. | |
whatever good or bad I have done in the European Parliament, financial | :22:05. | :22:08. | |
gain has not been one of the benefits. There have been | :22:09. | :22:13. | |
allegations of you also employing a former mistress on the same European | :22:14. | :22:18. | |
Parliamentary allowance, you deny that? I am very upset with the BBC | :22:19. | :22:23. | |
coverage of this. The ten o'clock news run this as a story without | :22:24. | :22:28. | |
explaining that that allegation was made using Parliamentary privilege | :22:29. | :22:32. | |
by somebody on bail facing serious fraud charges. I thought that was | :22:33. | :22:40. | |
pretty poor. You have a chance to do that and you deny you have employed | :22:41. | :22:48. | |
a former mistress? Yes, but if you look at many of the things said over | :22:49. | :22:52. | |
the last week, I think it is becoming pretty clear to voters that | :22:53. | :22:56. | |
the establishment are becoming terrified of UKIP and they will use | :22:57. | :23:03. | |
anything they can find to do us down in public. Is an MEP employs his | :23:04. | :23:10. | |
wife and his former mistress, that would be resigning matter, wouldn't | :23:11. | :23:16. | |
it? Yes, particularly if the assumption was that money was being | :23:17. | :23:20. | |
taped for work but was not being done. Who do you think is behind | :23:21. | :23:27. | |
these stories? It is all about negative, it is all about attacks, | :23:28. | :23:34. | |
but I don't think it is actually going to work because so much of | :23:35. | :23:37. | |
what has been said in the last week is nonsense. A reputable daily | :23:38. | :23:42. | |
newspaper said I shouldn't be trusted because I had stored six | :23:43. | :23:47. | |
times for the Conservative party, I have never even stored in a local | :23:48. | :23:51. | |
council election. I think if you keep kicking an underdog, it will | :23:52. | :23:56. | |
make the British people rally around us. Is it the Conservatives? Yes, | :23:57. | :24:07. | |
and the idea that all of our voters are retired colonels is simply not | :24:08. | :24:12. | |
true. We get some voters from the Labour side as well. Would you | :24:13. | :24:22. | |
consider standing in a Labour seat if you are so sure you are getting | :24:23. | :24:27. | |
Labour votes? Yes, but the key for UKIP is that it has to be marginal. | :24:28. | :24:36. | |
Just for your own future, if you fail to win a single soul -- single | :24:37. | :24:43. | |
seat in the general election, if Ed Miliband fails to win an outright | :24:44. | :24:48. | |
majority, will you stand down as UKIP leader? I would think within | :24:49. | :24:53. | |
about 12 hours, yes. I will have failed, I got into politics not | :24:54. | :24:58. | |
because I wanted a career in politics, far from it. I did it | :24:59. | :25:04. | |
because I don't think this European entanglement is right for our | :25:05. | :25:07. | |
country. I think a lot of people have woken up to the idea we have | :25:08. | :25:12. | |
lost control of our borders and now is the moment for UKIP to achieve | :25:13. | :25:19. | |
what it set out to do. Will UKIP continue without you if you stand | :25:20. | :25:24. | |
down? Of course it will. I know that everyone says it is a one-man band | :25:25. | :25:34. | |
but it is far from that. We have had some painful moments, getting rid of | :25:35. | :25:36. | |
old UKIP, new UKIP is more professional, less angry and it is | :25:37. | :25:41. | |
going places. Nigel Farage, thank you for being with us. | :25:42. | :25:46. | |
So, what else should we be looking out for in Wednesday's Budget | :25:47. | :25:49. | |
statement? We've compiled a Sunday Politics guide to the Chancellor's | :25:50. | :25:51. | |
likely announcements. Eyes down everyone, it's time for a | :25:52. | :25:54. | |
bit of budget bingo. Let's see what we will get from the man who lives | :25:55. | :25:58. | |
at legs 11. Despite some good news on the economy, George Osborne says | :25:59. | :26:01. | |
that this will be a Budget of hard truths with more pain ahead in order | :26:02. | :26:05. | |
to get the public finances back under control. But many in the | :26:06. | :26:07. | |
Conservative party, including the former chancellor Norman Lamont | :26:08. | :26:10. | |
want Mr Osborne to help the middle classes by doing something about the | :26:11. | :26:13. | |
4.4 million people who fall into the 40% bracket. Around one million more | :26:14. | :26:20. | |
people pay tax at that rate compared to 2010 because the higher tax | :26:21. | :26:23. | |
threshold hasn't increased in line with inflation. Mr Osborne has | :26:24. | :26:28. | |
indicated he might tackle the issue in the next Conservative manifesto, | :26:29. | :26:32. | |
but for now he is focused on helping the low paid. It's likely we will | :26:33. | :26:38. | |
see another increase in the amount you can earn before being taxed | :26:39. | :26:43. | |
perhaps up another ?500 to ?10, 00. The Chancellor is going to flesh out | :26:44. | :26:46. | |
the details of a tax break for childcare payments, and there could | :26:47. | :26:49. | |
be cries of 'house' with the promise of more help for the building | :26:50. | :27:06. | |
industry. The Help To Buy scheme will be extended to 2020 and there | :27:07. | :27:10. | |
could be the go-ahead for the first Garden City in 40 years. Finally, | :27:11. | :27:13. | |
bingo regulars could be celebrating a full house with a possible cut in | :27:14. | :27:15. | |
bingo tax. And I've been joined in the studio | :27:16. | :27:18. | |
by the former Conservative chancellor Norman Lamont, in Salford | :27:19. | :27:20. | |
by the former Labour Cabinet minister Hazel Blears, and in | :27:21. | :27:23. | |
Aberdeen by the Lib Dem deputy leader, Malcolm Bruce. Let me come | :27:24. | :27:26. | |
to Norman Lamont first, you and another former Tory Chancellor, | :27:27. | :27:33. | |
Nigel Lawson, have called in the fall in the threshold for the rate | :27:34. | :27:43. | |
at which the 40p clicks in. I would have preferred an adjustment in the | :27:44. | :27:48. | |
Budget but I agree with what you are saying, it sounds like the | :27:49. | :27:53. | |
Chancellor will not do that. My main point is that you cannot go on | :27:54. | :27:58. | |
forever and forever increasing the personal allowance and not | :27:59. | :28:01. | |
increasing the 40% tax threshold because you are driving more and | :28:02. | :28:07. | |
more people into that band. It is an expensive policy because in order to | :28:08. | :28:10. | |
keep the number of people not paying tax constant, you have to keep | :28:11. | :28:16. | |
adjusting it each year. When this was introduced by Nigel Lawson, it | :28:17. | :28:23. | |
applied to one in 20 people, the 40% rate, it now applies to one in six | :28:24. | :28:30. | |
people. By next year, there will be 6 million people paying base. Why do | :28:31. | :28:34. | |
you think your Tory colleagues seem happy to go along with the Lib Dems | :28:35. | :28:40. | |
and target whatever money there is for tax cuts rather -- on the lower | :28:41. | :28:54. | |
paid rather than the middle incomes? They are not helping the lowest | :28:55. | :29:00. | |
paid. If you wanted to really help the lowest paid people you would | :29:01. | :29:03. | |
raise the threshold for national insurance contributions, which is | :29:04. | :29:10. | |
around ?6,000. Is it the Lib Dems stopping any rise in the 40p | :29:11. | :29:19. | |
threshold? We are concentrating on raising the lower threshold because | :29:20. | :29:25. | |
we believe that is the way to help those on lower incomes. Whilst they | :29:26. | :29:31. | |
haven't benefited as much as the lower paid they have participated | :29:32. | :29:34. | |
and I think people understand right now, if you were going to prioritise | :29:35. | :29:39. | |
the high earners, when we are still trying to help those on lower and | :29:40. | :29:44. | |
middle incomes who haven't enjoyed great pay increases but have got the | :29:45. | :29:48. | |
benefit of these tax increases, that is why we would like to do it for | :29:49. | :29:53. | |
the minimum wage level. But the poorest will not benefit at all The | :29:54. | :30:00. | |
poorest 16% already don't pay tax. Why don't you increase the threshold | :30:01. | :30:05. | |
at which National Insurance starts? You only have two earned ?5,500 | :30:06. | :30:14. | |
before you start to pay it. You ve got to remember that the raising of | :30:15. | :30:18. | |
the threshold to ?10,000 or more was something the Tories said we could | :30:19. | :30:23. | |
not afford. Why are you continuing to do it? If you want to help the | :30:24. | :30:30. | |
working poor, the way would be to take the lowest out of national | :30:31. | :30:36. | |
insurance. The view we take is they are benefiting, and have benefited | :30:37. | :30:40. | |
from, the raising of the tax threshold. You now have to earn | :30:41. | :30:45. | |
?10,000, we hope eventually 12, 00, and that means only people on very | :30:46. | :30:50. | |
low wages. If you opt out of national insurance, you're saying to | :30:51. | :30:53. | |
people that you make no contribution to the welfare system, so there is a | :30:54. | :30:59. | |
general principle that people should participate and paying, and also | :31:00. | :31:04. | |
claim when they need something out. We thought raising the threshold was | :31:05. | :31:07. | |
simple and effective at a time of economic austerity and the right way | :31:08. | :31:10. | |
to deliver a helpful support to welcoming people. -- working people. | :31:11. | :31:17. | |
With the Labour Party continue to raise the threshold, or do they | :31:18. | :31:21. | |
think there is a case that there are too many people being dragged into | :31:22. | :31:27. | |
the 40p tax bracket? If Norman Lamont thinks this is the right time | :31:28. | :31:30. | |
to benefit people who are reasonably well off rather than those who are | :31:31. | :31:34. | |
struggling to make ends meet, then genuinely, I say it respectfully, I | :31:35. | :31:38. | |
don't think he's living in the world the rest of us are. Most working | :31:39. | :31:43. | |
people have seen their wages effectively reduced by about ?1 00 | :31:44. | :31:46. | |
because they have been frozen, so the right thing is to help people on | :31:47. | :31:53. | |
modest incomes. I also understand that if the 40% threshold went up, | :31:54. | :31:56. | |
the people who would benefit the most, as ever, are the people who | :31:57. | :32:01. | |
are really well off, not the people in the middle. The Conservatives | :32:02. | :32:05. | |
have already reduced the 50p tax on people over ?150,000 a year, and we | :32:06. | :32:11. | |
have to concentrate on the people going out to work, doing their best | :32:12. | :32:14. | |
to bring their children up and have a decent life and need a bit of | :32:15. | :32:17. | |
help. I think raising the threshold is a good thing. We would bring back | :32:18. | :32:21. | |
the 10p tax, which we should never have abolished, and do things with | :32:22. | :32:28. | |
regard to childcare. At the moment, childcare costs the average family | :32:29. | :32:31. | |
as much as their mortgage, for goodness sake. We would give 25 | :32:32. | :32:35. | |
hours free childcare for youngsters over three and four years old. That | :32:36. | :32:38. | |
would be a massive boost the working families. We are talking about | :32:39. | :32:46. | |
nurses, tube drivers, warrant officers in the army. There are many | :32:47. | :32:50. | |
people who are not well off but have been squeezed in the way everybody | :32:51. | :32:55. | |
has been squeezed and they are finding it continuing. I am stunned | :32:56. | :32:59. | |
by Malcolm's argument where everybody should pay something so | :33:00. | :33:02. | |
you should not take people out of national insurance, but the | :33:03. | :33:05. | |
principle doesn't apply to income tax. You can stand that argument on | :33:06. | :33:11. | |
its head and apply it to income tax. Most people don't see a difference | :33:12. | :33:15. | |
between income tax and national insurance, it's the same thing to | :33:16. | :33:20. | |
most people. It is true that it isn't really an insurance fund and | :33:21. | :33:22. | |
there is an argument from merging both of them. But we have | :33:23. | :33:28. | |
concentrated on a simple tax proposition. Norman is ignoring the | :33:29. | :33:34. | |
fact the people on the 40% rate have benefited by the raising of the | :33:35. | :33:38. | |
personal allowance. To say they have been squeezed is unfair. The | :33:39. | :33:41. | |
calculation is that an ordinary taxpayer will be ?700 better off at | :33:42. | :33:47. | |
the current threshold, and about ?500 better off at the higher rate. | :33:48. | :33:51. | |
It is misleading to say the better off we'll be paying more. I agree | :33:52. | :33:56. | |
with Hazel, if you go to the 40 rate, it's the higher earners who | :33:57. | :34:00. | |
benefit the most, and we won't do that when the economy is not where | :34:01. | :34:04. | |
it was before the crash. How much will the lower paid be better off if | :34:05. | :34:11. | |
you reintroduce the 10p rate? Significantly better off. I don t | :34:12. | :34:16. | |
have the figure myself, but they'd be significantly better off and the | :34:17. | :34:22. | |
Budget should be a mixture of measures to help people who work | :34:23. | :34:25. | |
hard. That is why I think the childcare issue has to be | :34:26. | :34:29. | |
addressed. ?100 a week of the people with childcare payments. It is a | :34:30. | :34:35. | |
massive issue. We want the job is guaranteed to get young people back | :34:36. | :34:39. | |
into work. There's been hardly any discussion about that, and we have | :34:40. | :34:42. | |
nearly 1 million people who have been out of work for six months or | :34:43. | :34:45. | |
more, and as a country we need to do something to help that. 350,000 | :34:46. | :34:53. | |
full-time students, so it is a misleading figure. It is not a | :34:54. | :34:55. | |
million including full-time students. All parties do this. It | :34:56. | :35:02. | |
sounds to me, Malcolm Bruce, you have more in common with the Labour | :35:03. | :35:05. | |
Party than you do with the Conservatives. You want an annual | :35:06. | :35:09. | |
levy on houses over ?2 million, so does Labour. A lot of your members | :35:10. | :35:13. | |
want to scrap the so-called bedroom tax and so does labour. You think | :35:14. | :35:17. | |
every teacher should have a teaching qualification, and so does Labour. | :35:18. | :35:21. | |
Your policy on the EU referendum is the same. Let me go on. And you want | :35:22. | :35:26. | |
to scrap the winter fuel allowance for wealthy pensioners. We want to | :35:27. | :35:32. | |
make sure we get the public finances in order and we have grave | :35:33. | :35:34. | |
reservations about the Labour Party promises. But they followed your | :35:35. | :35:44. | |
spending plans in the first year. The point we are making is we can | :35:45. | :35:48. | |
make a fairer society and stronger economy if you keep the public | :35:49. | :35:51. | |
finances moving towards balance We don't think the Labour Party will | :35:52. | :35:55. | |
take a stand that track. It is interesting that the Labour Party | :35:56. | :35:58. | |
want to introduce the 10p rate that Gordon Brown abolished. We consider | :35:59. | :36:04. | |
that before we can -- committed to the 0% rate -- we considered that. | :36:05. | :36:11. | |
It makes a complicated system difficult and we think it's better | :36:12. | :36:16. | |
doing it that way. As a fiscal conservative, why are you talking | :36:17. | :36:20. | |
about any tax cuts when the deficit is over ?100 billion, and | :36:21. | :36:23. | |
effectively, anything you propose today can only be financed by more | :36:24. | :36:28. | |
borrowing. I totally agree with you. I said that this week. I thought the | :36:29. | :36:33. | |
best thing would have no Budget The main thing is to get the deficit | :36:34. | :36:37. | |
down. My argument is is that you have an adjustment in tax rates it | :36:38. | :36:40. | |
should be shared between the allowances and the higher rate, but | :36:41. | :36:45. | |
I don't think that the progress on the deficit is something we can give | :36:46. | :36:51. | |
up on. This is still a very long way to go. We're only halfway through. | :36:52. | :36:58. | |
Hazel, does it make sense to borrow for tax cuts? I am reluctant to do | :36:59. | :37:01. | |
this, but I agree with both Norman and Malcolm. Malcolm Bruce wants to | :37:02. | :37:08. | |
borrow for tax cuts. We absolutely need to get the deficit down and get | :37:09. | :37:12. | |
finances on a strong footing. But we also have to think about having some | :37:13. | :37:17. | |
spending in the system that in the longer run saves us money. We all | :37:18. | :37:21. | |
know we need to build new homes I don't think it's necessarily the | :37:22. | :37:25. | |
right priority to give people in London mortgage relief in terms of | :37:26. | :37:30. | |
?600,000. We have to get the balance right. Sometimes it is right to | :37:31. | :37:34. | |
spend to save. I'm afraid we have run out of time. There will be | :37:35. | :37:41. | |
plenty more discussion in the lead up to the Budget on Wednesday. | :37:42. | :37:43. | |
It's just gone 11:35am. You're watching the Sunday Politics. We say | :37:44. | :37:47. | |
goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now for Sunday Politics | :37:48. | :37:51. | |
Scotland. Coming up here in 20 minutes, Frances O'Grady, the | :37:52. | :37:54. | |
And Mr Sunday Politics East the us discuss | :37:55. | :38:10. | |
And Mr Sunday Politics East the south`east. Coming up, should | :38:11. | :38:14. | |
everyone have the right to larch where they want to? We will be | :38:15. | :38:21. | |
asking that as councillors say Brighton's March For England should | :38:22. | :38:25. | |
be banned from the seafront. Joining me at the Conservative MP for | :38:26. | :38:30. | |
Sevenoaks Michael Fallon, also a government minister for energy and | :38:31. | :38:37. | |
business, and Lord Steve Bassam First to the debate on whether there | :38:38. | :38:43. | |
should be an in`out referendum on the EU. We already knew that David | :38:44. | :38:48. | |
Cameron wants one and Nick Clegg doesn't but we didn't know what Ed | :38:49. | :38:52. | |
Miliband thought. He told us in his beach this week. | :38:53. | :39:02. | |
If a voter asked you, will xou guarantee me a say on whethdr | :39:03. | :39:06. | |
Britain stays and gets out of the EU, what is the answer in a | :39:07. | :39:08. | |
sentence? If there is a transfer of powers | :39:09. | :39:15. | |
from Britain to the European Union then there will be a referendum My | :39:16. | :39:20. | |
priority is jobs for young people, protecting the NHS. | :39:21. | :39:28. | |
So maybe or maybe not. I said very clearly that thd lock | :39:29. | :39:31. | |
will be triggered in the next Parliament. | :39:32. | :39:38. | |
Pin elections take place in just under two months' time. Our guest | :39:39. | :39:48. | |
last week said in reaction to Ed Miliband's announcement, anx target | :39:49. | :39:53. | |
seats Ed Miliband were hoping to take have been delivered to your | :39:54. | :40:02. | |
cat. She is right as an she? `` delivered to you kept. `` UKIP. | :40:03. | :40:13. | |
I think he has put the case very positively. If there is a proposal | :40:14. | :40:19. | |
to transfer powers away frol the UK then Labour will trigger a | :40:20. | :40:22. | |
referendum and I think that is right. I think that clarifids | :40:23. | :40:27. | |
exactly where we are. Our Tory colleagues are in this curious | :40:28. | :40:32. | |
position of saying they might have a referendum by the end of 2007 if | :40:33. | :40:37. | |
they manage to renegotiate the deal or package with 27 other melbers of | :40:38. | :40:45. | |
the EU. It very unlikely scdnario. To MPs last week on this programme | :40:46. | :40:49. | |
said they want out of Europd, one of them known to be a loyalist in the | :40:50. | :40:55. | |
party. Despite your leader's promise, this issue just get worse | :40:56. | :41:00. | |
for you. We are saying there will be a | :41:01. | :41:05. | |
referendum in 2017 on the rdform package we want for Europe. A much | :41:06. | :41:15. | |
less bureaucratic Europe, there are four parties, two of them don't want | :41:16. | :41:20. | |
any change at all, that is Labour and the Liberal Democrats. There are | :41:21. | :41:23. | |
only two that want to changd and there is only one and that hs asked | :41:24. | :41:26. | |
I to do anything about it. I dispute that. | :41:27. | :41:31. | |
You said you didn't want to change Europe. | :41:32. | :41:35. | |
We have said we want Europe to reform. | :41:36. | :41:39. | |
So why is it unlikely there will be a referendum? | :41:40. | :41:42. | |
He was talking about whether there was a transfer of hours proposed to | :41:43. | :41:48. | |
be away from the UK to Europe. In those circumstances we are very | :41:49. | :41:51. | |
clear. Have got to sell that to thd voters. | :41:52. | :41:57. | |
It is quite a confused mess`ge. You have arguably helped Michael's | :41:58. | :42:04. | |
party. I don't think there is uncertainty. | :42:05. | :42:09. | |
I think it has been created by damaging business. We have got the | :42:10. | :42:16. | |
right approach to the EU and the necessary reforms. | :42:17. | :42:21. | |
We are going to leave it thdre but we are going to stay on the subject | :42:22. | :42:25. | |
of Ed Miliband's strategy bdcause the party is wrote meeting hn | :42:26. | :42:35. | |
Crawley `` meeting in Crawldy for the party conference. In thd last | :42:36. | :42:42. | |
general election, the party was wiped off the political map you re | :42:43. | :42:46. | |
so what are the prospects of a rock bible? I talked to their deputy | :42:47. | :42:52. | |
leader Harriet Harman. `` prospects of a revival. | :42:53. | :43:04. | |
Labour candidates must be w`ving goodbye to power, according to | :43:05. | :43:12. | |
UKIP. I'm not concerned about what they | :43:13. | :43:18. | |
say because that is not the point of what Ed Miliband said. It is not | :43:19. | :43:25. | |
confused, what he said forw`rd, it is actually quite a complex issue | :43:26. | :43:30. | |
but it is very clear what hd said. Overall, he thinks the question of | :43:31. | :43:36. | |
all the jobs that depend on our trade with Europe, it is very | :43:37. | :43:40. | |
important that we have that relationship with the Europdan Union | :43:41. | :43:43. | |
and are part of the European Union so that we can sell our goods to | :43:44. | :43:49. | |
them and attract investment into this country because we are part of | :43:50. | :43:53. | |
the big trading bloc that is the European Union. | :43:54. | :43:58. | |
They might not want to think about it but let's remind ourselvds that | :43:59. | :44:06. | |
you have serious work to do here. UKIP is the party that is stealing | :44:07. | :44:12. | |
seats from you in marginal seats. They proved to be a very serious | :44:13. | :44:17. | |
threat to you here in the south`east. | :44:18. | :44:18. | |
I think the most important thing is to show that we are on the doorstep | :44:19. | :44:27. | |
and on people 's side. People say to us they will vote for UKIP because | :44:28. | :44:34. | |
we are all the same and we don't go round there and aren't concdrned | :44:35. | :44:40. | |
about them and use UKIP is ` kind of plague on all your houses khnd of | :44:41. | :44:49. | |
boat. That challenges us to show that's we understand the problems | :44:50. | :44:52. | |
people are having and we ard on the side. But looking over our shoulder | :44:53. | :45:00. | |
to UKIP policies, because I don t think they offer a way forw`rd for | :45:01. | :45:13. | |
growth or jobs or the NHS. It is one issue that is your parties | :45:14. | :45:21. | |
`` party's Achilles' heel, immigration. | :45:22. | :45:28. | |
People are worried about thd effects of migration and that is whx we have | :45:29. | :45:36. | |
said we want to bring about changes in the European Union and Ed | :45:37. | :45:41. | |
Miliband has identified a ntmber of ways of changing it. One of those is | :45:42. | :45:47. | |
how long it takes a country to join the European Union. | :45:48. | :45:51. | |
Let us get back to the general election. In your target se`ts, not | :45:52. | :45:56. | |
many of them are in the south`east compared to the last general | :45:57. | :45:59. | |
election. Is that an admisshon you are writing of this region? | :46:00. | :46:06. | |
No, we are not writing of this region. There are council elections | :46:07. | :46:13. | |
coming up and people need strong councillors on their side. There is | :46:14. | :46:18. | |
no difference between the Tories and the Lib Dems right now. Thex are | :46:19. | :46:25. | |
both responsible for the cost of living crisis and growing problems | :46:26. | :46:29. | |
in the NHS. We look forward to seeing how he | :46:30. | :46:34. | |
will do. She is not terribly bothered about | :46:35. | :46:39. | |
what UKIP is saying. Does she realise the scale of the problem | :46:40. | :46:44. | |
your party has in this region? Come general election day, there | :46:45. | :46:49. | |
will be a broad and it will either be David Cameron or Ed Miliband She | :46:50. | :46:54. | |
is absolutely right to focus on our message. Of course UKIP is ` threat | :46:55. | :47:03. | |
but even in the regions she noted earlier, there is... | :47:04. | :47:15. | |
Your party doesn't have any representation. | :47:16. | :47:20. | |
We are campaigning hard in the south`east. We have got good | :47:21. | :47:29. | |
prospects. We have got more councillors in the district | :47:30. | :47:32. | |
authorities. Not enough considering it is four | :47:33. | :47:38. | |
years since she had an MP. We made progress in the council | :47:39. | :47:44. | |
elections as well. Our progress is good. We know we can win se`ts in | :47:45. | :47:53. | |
the south`east. We at concentrating on jobs crisis for young people And | :47:54. | :48:05. | |
the health sector. We know we have campaign issues that are effective | :48:06. | :48:07. | |
and we think we have the right approach to Europe. We understand | :48:08. | :48:20. | |
the concern about immigration. You are talking about hard pressed | :48:21. | :48:27. | |
to voters, that is a diffictlt message for you to sell to people. | :48:28. | :48:37. | |
I think we can point to the achievement of the coalition. We | :48:38. | :48:40. | |
were left with this terribld economic legacy which left this | :48:41. | :48:51. | |
region worse off than most. Of course, we didn't have an oral | :48:52. | :48:59. | |
majority but we can work towards the next election and get some of our | :49:00. | :49:07. | |
policies into action `` over role majority. Labour still wants to | :49:08. | :49:17. | |
borrow. Ed Miliband says she still got it | :49:18. | :49:24. | |
wrong. We had to save the banks in the | :49:25. | :49:31. | |
crisis. Your party was at the wrong side of that argument at thd time. | :49:32. | :49:36. | |
There was growth in the British economy for the first two qtarters | :49:37. | :49:40. | |
of 2010 and that was part of Labour's success. | :49:41. | :49:45. | |
You have made very modest g`ins You have only got the year to the next | :49:46. | :49:50. | |
general election. How many seats do you think realistically why you will | :49:51. | :49:56. | |
be able to win back here? I think the general election in 2015 | :49:57. | :50:01. | |
is there for us to win and the coalition is clearly falling apart | :50:02. | :50:06. | |
and the Conservative Party hs divided amongst itself, as we have | :50:07. | :50:09. | |
seen this week over Europe. We will have a strong case whether the | :50:10. | :50:19. | |
British general electorate. You don't sound very optimistic | :50:20. | :50:22. | |
about winning seats in the south`east. If you are going to be a | :50:23. | :50:42. | |
national party... We have done huge progress in reducing the deficit. | :50:43. | :50:45. | |
The last thing we want to do is go back. | :50:46. | :50:48. | |
We could talk about that policy for hours but we will have to ldave it | :50:49. | :50:51. | |
there. In six weeks time, the marchers | :50:52. | :51:00. | |
planned across Brighton front. But few cars the contract of `` you | :51:01. | :51:13. | |
marches cause the controversy of March For England. | :51:14. | :51:17. | |
It has become a regular datd in the Brighton calendar when... The | :51:18. | :51:31. | |
organisers say they wanted to be peaceful but others say it hs a | :51:32. | :51:36. | |
front for far right groups. In recent years, the event has been | :51:37. | :51:41. | |
marred by violence and conflict between the two groups. Last year, | :51:42. | :51:48. | |
19 people were arrested as larches clashed with opposition protesters. | :51:49. | :51:56. | |
Two police officers were injured. This man once banned. | :51:57. | :52:12. | |
`` this man wants it banned. One trader told me it cost him | :52:13. | :52:19. | |
?10,000. Others were fearful that they couldn't open their shops. I do | :52:20. | :52:26. | |
not think that is fair. Brighton is widely known for | :52:27. | :52:30. | |
tolerance and diversity and most locals fundamentally agree with the | :52:31. | :52:36. | |
right to protest but most traders say it is the route they object to. | :52:37. | :52:41. | |
If they want to express thehr preferences, they should, btt maybe | :52:42. | :52:46. | |
not on the seafront. It was over the top last ye`r, it | :52:47. | :52:51. | |
was like a war zone. It stops access for us traddrs and | :52:52. | :52:56. | |
we lose a day's trade. What is the answer? | :52:57. | :53:10. | |
Move the march, full stop. It costs nearly ?500,000 to police. | :53:11. | :53:18. | |
Some say there is a wider cost to the city. | :53:19. | :53:27. | |
The economic damage is one thing but the reputational damage is worse. It | :53:28. | :53:38. | |
is entirely the opposite. Brighton is no stranger to protests. | :53:39. | :53:44. | |
During the 1960s, there werd violent clashes between the mods and | :53:45. | :53:49. | |
rockers. Today, the city is better known for colourful events like | :53:50. | :53:53. | |
Brighton Pride. The March For England is more controversi`l. What | :53:54. | :54:00. | |
can be done? It seems a council has limited powers to intervene. But | :54:01. | :54:06. | |
there are discussions with Sussex Police over coordination of the | :54:07. | :54:11. | |
march. The ban can only be ordered by the Home Secretary and only in | :54:12. | :54:16. | |
extreme cases. The march wotld be that the call to stop but there is | :54:17. | :54:21. | |
extreme pressure to relocatd it It is fair to say that the March For | :54:22. | :54:26. | |
England is extremely unpopular but the plan is for the seafront to be | :54:27. | :54:32. | |
cordoned off as the march m`kes its way along this road. That still | :54:33. | :54:39. | |
leaves one question unanswered, happy but 's got the appropriate | :54:40. | :54:43. | |
balance between the rights of demonstrators and the reput`tion of | :54:44. | :54:47. | |
Brighton is one of Britain's's Premier tourist resorts. | :54:48. | :54:54. | |
Superintendent Steve Whitton joins us now from Brighton. Are you | :54:55. | :54:58. | |
expecting much trouble? It is fair to say that therd have | :54:59. | :55:04. | |
been problems in the past and last year and previous years there has | :55:05. | :55:08. | |
been some violence. I am determined to get the balance right between an | :55:09. | :55:14. | |
individual's fundamental right to peacefully protest and our wider | :55:15. | :55:20. | |
responsibilities around maintaining order. | :55:21. | :55:24. | |
How do you do that? What ard your options? | :55:25. | :55:30. | |
The legal powers which govern how we can pull is a situation that smack | :55:31. | :55:35. | |
police `` Paul is a situation.. There are certain situations we can | :55:36. | :55:55. | |
impose if we feel them necessary. We heard in the report that you have | :55:56. | :56:01. | |
an option of going to the Home Secretary. When we consider that? | :56:02. | :56:09. | |
It is one of those things wd struggle with every year in terms of | :56:10. | :56:18. | |
understanding. It is fundamdntal that people are loads to pe`cefully | :56:19. | :56:24. | |
protest. In terms of Hanning a march, that can only be considered | :56:25. | :56:32. | |
if we feel there is likely to be serious disorder and the only way we | :56:33. | :56:39. | |
can prevent that is to ban the march. | :56:40. | :56:43. | |
While you anywhere near reaching that point? | :56:44. | :56:50. | |
I will keep this under constant review but we are not anywhdre near | :56:51. | :56:54. | |
that threshold and it is an exceptional power that has only been | :56:55. | :56:59. | |
used a couple of times nationally. The other important point around | :57:00. | :57:05. | |
powers to ban a march is th`t it only bands in March, there hs no | :57:06. | :57:11. | |
power to ban an assembly whhch could cause more disruption if we can t | :57:12. | :57:17. | |
manage it within a controlldd way. Thank you for explaining yotr | :57:18. | :57:21. | |
situation. Lord Bassam of Brighton, you know the city well. What should | :57:22. | :57:29. | |
be done? I am rather sympathetic to the call | :57:30. | :57:32. | |
for banning it. These are b`sically nasty, racist thugs. | :57:33. | :57:45. | |
Actually, the counter protesters are usually the ones that cause the | :57:46. | :57:47. | |
trouble. I am not terribly sympathethc to | :57:48. | :57:57. | |
this March and I think the police working with the local authority | :57:58. | :58:03. | |
should try to ban this becatse it is bad for local business and not good | :58:04. | :58:09. | |
for the reputation of the chty. I believe in protecting peopld 's | :58:10. | :58:12. | |
rights to a voice that I don't think this is giving voice to much | :58:13. | :58:14. | |
really. It is Lord Bassam's home turf so he | :58:15. | :58:23. | |
knows it better than most pdople but I am wary about banning people s | :58:24. | :58:30. | |
right to protest. Even Stop The March don't w`nt to | :58:31. | :58:38. | |
stop the march. It is for the police to man`ge | :58:39. | :58:44. | |
this. And to pay for it. | :58:45. | :58:50. | |
I quite understand that dam`ged to trade and it is up to the ptlleys to | :58:51. | :58:58. | |
manage this. I don't think that answers should always be just to ban | :58:59. | :59:02. | |
it. It is time now for the other | :59:03. | :59:11. | |
political stories of the wedk. No fracking in the National Parks | :59:12. | :59:14. | |
says The National Trust and wildlife groups. The South Downs is one | :59:15. | :59:17. | |
National Park meted for the controversial shale gas extraction | :59:18. | :59:21. | |
method. 30 years after the start of the | :59:22. | :59:24. | |
Miners' Strikes, Betteshangdr Colliery near Dover will get coastal | :59:25. | :59:27. | |
communities funding, turning it into a sustainable energy centre. | :59:28. | :59:32. | |
Mixed signals from Southeastern The rail operator hopes to extend its | :59:33. | :59:35. | |
service in Kent but is at standstill in Sussex with much of the Hastings | :59:36. | :59:41. | |
line now closed indefinitelx. After landslips three months ago. Hastings | :59:42. | :59:46. | |
Council is worried about thd impact on tourism. | :59:47. | :59:48. | |
It's a City Deal. Greater Brighton has signed up to government's City | :59:49. | :59:52. | |
Deal scheme which aims to tdmpt tech industry investors down to Silicon | :59:53. | :59:55. | |
Beach. It could be worth ?170 million. | :59:56. | :59:59. | |
And Chartwell has a new reshdent. Jock is the sixth marmalade cat to | :00:00. | :00:03. | |
move into Winston Churchill's home, as per his will. | :00:04. | :00:08. | |
You get so many people coming in saying, "Where's the cat?" | :00:09. | :00:18. | |
Michael Fallon, we know you are enthusiastic about fracking. Should | :00:19. | :00:23. | |
it really happen in the South Downs to? | :00:24. | :00:32. | |
They do have structural 's `` stricter rules but they shotld look | :00:33. | :00:39. | |
at each application on its lerits. So yes in other words. | :00:40. | :00:45. | |
Look at each application on its merits. | :00:46. | :00:51. | |
Thank you to both my guests. That is it for this week. | :00:52. | :00:55. | |
industrial action is a sign of failure marked success. -- not | :00:56. | :01:00. | |
success. Andrew, back to you. Has George Osborne got a rabbit in | :01:01. | :01:13. | |
his Budget hat? Will the Chancellor find a way to help the squeezed | :01:14. | :01:16. | |
middle? And how do Labour respond? All questions for The Week Ahead. | :01:17. | :01:24. | |
And joining Helen, Janan and Nick to discuss the budget is the general | :01:25. | :01:29. | |
secretary of the Trades Union Congress Frances O'Grady. Welcome | :01:30. | :01:34. | |
back to the programme. I know the TUC has a submission, but if you | :01:35. | :01:37. | |
could pick one thing that you wanted the Chancellor to do above all, what | :01:38. | :01:43. | |
would it be? We want a budget for working people, which means we have | :01:44. | :01:47. | |
to crack the long-term problem of investment in the British economy. | :01:48. | :01:52. | |
Certainly I would like the Chancellor to merit that title they | :01:53. | :01:59. | |
want of the new workers party, and take action on living standards but | :02:00. | :02:02. | |
if they're going to do that it's got to be about unlocking investment. In | :02:03. | :02:12. | |
the period where the economy has been flat-lining there has been | :02:13. | :02:15. | |
little business investment, but there are signs towards the end of | :02:16. | :02:19. | |
last year that it is beginning to pick up. But a long way to go. The | :02:20. | :02:25. | |
problem is we have key industries like construction and manufacturing | :02:26. | :02:27. | |
that are still smaller than they were before the recession. The | :02:28. | :02:34. | |
government itself, of course, has slashed its own capital investment | :02:35. | :02:39. | |
budget by half. There is plenty of good and important work that needs | :02:40. | :02:43. | |
to be done from building houses to improving the transport system, to | :02:44. | :02:48. | |
improving our schools. And the government really needs to pick up | :02:49. | :02:53. | |
that shovel and start investing in our economy to get the decent jobs | :02:54. | :02:57. | |
we need, the pay increases we need, and that in itself will help | :02:58. | :03:03. | |
stimulate demand. It was Alistair Darling who cut in 2011, and it s | :03:04. | :03:09. | |
interesting that Ed Balls in his plans for the next parliament would | :03:10. | :03:13. | |
run a current budget surplus by the end of the parliament as opposed to | :03:14. | :03:17. | |
George Osborne who would have an overall budget surplus. That gives | :03:18. | :03:22. | |
Ed Balls or -- more wriggle room to do what you talk about, but he is | :03:23. | :03:25. | |
reticent to talk about it. He does not want to say that he has an | :03:26. | :03:28. | |
opportunity to spend on investment because he fears if he says it he | :03:29. | :03:31. | |
will be attacked by the Conservatives for being | :03:32. | :03:35. | |
irresponsible. Why is business doing this? The recession was deeper than | :03:36. | :03:42. | |
any since the war and the recovery was slower than almost any since the | :03:43. | :03:47. | |
war. The lag, the time it takes to get over that is longer than anyone | :03:48. | :03:53. | |
expected. I read the same evidence as you towards the end of last year | :03:54. | :03:57. | |
pointing to money being released, and it depends what it is released | :03:58. | :04:01. | |
on, whether it is capital investment or bringing in people on higher | :04:02. | :04:05. | |
wages. The one surprise in the downturn is how well the employment | :04:06. | :04:11. | |
figures have done, but they have not invested in new capacity and they | :04:12. | :04:14. | |
are sitting on a lot of dosh. I looked at one set of figures that | :04:15. | :04:18. | |
said if you took the biggest company in Britain, they have about 715 | :04:19. | :04:24. | |
billion pounds in corporate treasury -- the biggest companies. I think | :04:25. | :04:28. | |
it's reduced a little but they are sitting on a mountain in dash of | :04:29. | :04:34. | |
skills. Yes, but they're not investing in skills, wages, or | :04:35. | :04:38. | |
sustainable jobs. The new jobs we have seen created since 2010, the | :04:39. | :04:44. | |
vast majority of them have been in low paid industries, and they are | :04:45. | :04:49. | |
often zero hours, or insecure, or part-time. So it's not delivering a | :04:50. | :04:52. | |
recovery for ordinary working people. Government ministers, as you | :04:53. | :04:58. | |
know when you lobby them, they are anxious to make out that they know | :04:59. | :05:01. | |
the job is not done and the recovery has just begun, but the one bit they | :05:02. | :05:07. | |
are privately proud of, although they can't explain it, is how many | :05:08. | :05:12. | |
private-sector jobs have been created. A lot of unions have done | :05:13. | :05:16. | |
sensible deals with employers to protect jobs through this period, | :05:17. | :05:19. | |
but it's not sustainable. The average worker in Britain today is | :05:20. | :05:24. | |
now ?2000 a year worse off in real terms than they were. On a pay | :05:25. | :05:31. | |
against price comparison? It doesn't take into account tax cuts. The | :05:32. | :05:39. | |
raising of the personal allowance is far outweighed by the raising VAT. | :05:40. | :05:47. | |
Does the raising of the threshold which the Lib Dems are proud of and | :05:48. | :05:50. | |
the Tories are trying to trade credit for, does it matter to your | :05:51. | :05:55. | |
members? -- take credit for. It matters that it is eclipsed by the | :05:56. | :06:00. | |
cuts in benefits and know what is conned any more. We're going to hear | :06:01. | :06:03. | |
a lot about the raising of the allowance, but as long as the real | :06:04. | :06:09. | |
value of work, tax credits, things like that, people won't feel it in | :06:10. | :06:13. | |
their pocket, and they will find it harder and harder to look after | :06:14. | :06:16. | |
their family. When you look at the other things that could take over | :06:17. | :06:20. | |
from consumer spending which has driven the recovery, held by house | :06:21. | :06:24. | |
price rising in the south, it is exports and business investment and | :06:25. | :06:27. | |
you look at the state of the Eurozone and the emerging markets | :06:28. | :06:32. | |
which are now in trouble, and the winter seems to have derailed the US | :06:33. | :06:36. | |
recovery. It won't be exports. Indeed, the Obie Eich does not think | :06:37. | :06:43. | |
that will contribute to growth until 2015 -- OBI. So the figures we | :06:44. | :06:47. | |
should be looking at our business investment. And also the deficit. | :06:48. | :06:55. | |
The deficit is 111 billion, and that is a problem, because we are not at | :06:56. | :06:58. | |
the end of the cutting process, there are huge cuts to be made. I | :06:59. | :07:03. | |
understand we are only a third of the way through. That will | :07:04. | :07:06. | |
definitely affect business confidence. It is clear that the | :07:07. | :07:10. | |
strategy has failed. Borrowing has gone up and it's not delivered | :07:11. | :07:13. | |
improved living standards and better quality jobs, so cutting out of the | :07:14. | :07:21. | |
recession is not going to work. The structural budget deficit was going | :07:22. | :07:24. | |
to be eliminated three weeks today under the original plan. They missed | :07:25. | :07:30. | |
target after target. Every economist has their own definition of that. I | :07:31. | :07:36. | |
think Mark Carney is right when he says that fundamentally the economy | :07:37. | :07:41. | |
is unbalanced and it is not sustainable, growth is not | :07:42. | :07:45. | |
sustainable. But if it clicked on, it would be more balanced. It is not | :07:46. | :07:51. | |
just north and south and manufacturing a way out with | :07:52. | :07:54. | |
services, but it is also between the rich and everybody else. What do you | :07:55. | :08:00. | |
make of the fact that there will effectively be another freezing | :08:01. | :08:03. | |
public sector pay, or at least no more than 1%? Not even that for | :08:04. | :08:11. | |
nurses and health workers. But they will get 3% progression pay. 70 of | :08:12. | :08:16. | |
nurses will not get any pay rise at all. They get no progression pay at | :08:17. | :08:20. | |
all. I think this is smack in the mouth. Smack in the mouth to | :08:21. | :08:26. | |
dedicated health care workers who will feel very, very discontented | :08:27. | :08:31. | |
about the decision. Danny Alexander, I saw him appealing to | :08:32. | :08:36. | |
health workers do not move to strike ballots and said they should talk to | :08:37. | :08:42. | |
their department. But about what? Is that real pay cut has been imposed, | :08:43. | :08:48. | |
what are workers left with? So do you expect as a result of yet more | :08:49. | :08:53. | |
tough controls on public sector pay that unrest is inevitable? I know | :08:54. | :08:58. | |
some unions will be consulting with their members, but ultimately it's | :08:59. | :09:03. | |
always members who decide what to do. It does seem to me insulting not | :09:04. | :09:08. | |
to at least be honest and say that we are cutting real pay of nurses, | :09:09. | :09:17. | |
health care workers, on the back of a ?3 billion reorganisation of the | :09:18. | :09:20. | |
NHS that nobody wanted and nobody voted for. Their long-term changes | :09:21. | :09:28. | |
taking place here that almost talks about -- there are long-term | :09:29. | :09:32. | |
changes. It is how lower percentage wages have become of GDP on how big | :09:33. | :09:39. | |
the percentage of profits is. It seems to me there is a strong case | :09:40. | :09:44. | |
for some kind of realignment there. The biggest event of my life, in | :09:45. | :09:48. | |
this world, is the entry of a couple of billion more people into the | :09:49. | :09:51. | |
labour supply. At the end of the Cold War, India and China plugged | :09:52. | :09:56. | |
into the global economy. If there is a greater supply of that factor of | :09:57. | :10:00. | |
production, logically you conclude that wages will fall or stagnate and | :10:01. | :10:05. | |
that has been the story in this country and America and large parts | :10:06. | :10:07. | |
of Western Europe in the last generation. What is not possible is | :10:08. | :10:11. | |
for governments to do much about it. They can ameliorate it at the | :10:12. | :10:15. | |
margins, but the idea that the government controls living | :10:16. | :10:19. | |
standards, which has become popular over the last six months, and the | :10:20. | :10:22. | |
Labour Party have in establishing that, and I don't think it's true. | :10:23. | :10:28. | |
George Osborne's options are astonishingly limited compared to | :10:29. | :10:32. | |
public expectations. If wages have reached a modern record low as | :10:33. | :10:36. | |
percentage of GDP, who is going to champion the wage earner? We have | :10:37. | :10:43. | |
lost Bob Crow, Tony Benn passed away, so who is the champion? The | :10:44. | :10:48. | |
trade union movement is the champion of ordinary workers. We need those | :10:49. | :10:52. | |
larger-than-life figures that we will mess. Have you got them yet? We | :10:53. | :11:00. | |
have a generation of workers coming through. One thing about the loss of | :11:01. | :11:04. | |
Bob Crow is that the whole union movement has responded strongly to | :11:05. | :11:08. | |
that, and we want to say that we are strong and united and here to stand | :11:09. | :11:11. | |
up for working people and we will fight as hard as Bob Crow did. | :11:12. | :11:16. | |
Whoever replaces Bob Crow or Tony Benn, we can be sure they will not | :11:17. | :11:20. | |
come from Eton because they all have jobs in the government. I want to | :11:21. | :11:24. | |
put up on the screen what even Michael Gove was saying about this | :11:25. | :11:25. | |
coterie of Old Etonian 's. He's right, is he not? He's | :11:26. | :11:40. | |
absolutely right. We have the idea of the manifesto being written by | :11:41. | :11:46. | |
five people from Eton and one from Saint Pauls. A remarkable example of | :11:47. | :11:52. | |
social mobility that George Osborne, who had the disadvantage of going to | :11:53. | :11:55. | |
Saint Pauls has made it into that inner circle. Here is the question, | :11:56. | :12:03. | |
what is Michael Gove up to? If you saw the response from George | :12:04. | :12:06. | |
Osborne, there was no slap down and they know this is an area they are | :12:07. | :12:09. | |
weak on an David Cameron will not comment on it. If this had been a | :12:10. | :12:14. | |
Labour shadow minister making a similarly disloyal statement, they | :12:15. | :12:19. | |
might have been shot at dawn. But there is a real tolerance from | :12:20. | :12:22. | |
Michael Gove to go freelance which comes from George Osborne. It's | :12:23. | :12:26. | |
about highlighting educational reforms that he wants to turn every | :12:27. | :12:29. | |
school in to eat and so it won't happen in the future. But it's also | :12:30. | :12:33. | |
pointing out who did not go to Eton school and who would be the best | :12:34. | :12:37. | |
candidate to replace David Cameron as leader, George Osborne, and who | :12:38. | :12:41. | |
did go to Eton school, Boris Johnson. Michael Gove is on | :12:42. | :12:45. | |
manoeuvres to destroy Boris Johnson's chances of being leader. | :12:46. | :12:52. | |
It's a good job they don't have an election to worry about. Hold on. I | :12:53. | :12:58. | |
think they are out of touch with businesses as well as working | :12:59. | :13:01. | |
people. You ask about who is talking about wage earners. Businesses are. | :13:02. | :13:05. | |
They are worried that unless living standards rise again there will be | :13:06. | :13:10. | |
nobody there to buy anything. We are running out of time, but the TUC, | :13:11. | :13:16. | |
are enthusiastic about HS2? We supported. We think it's the kind of | :13:17. | :13:21. | |
infrastructure project that we need to invest in long-term. He could, if | :13:22. | :13:25. | |
we get it right, rebalance north and south and create good jobs along the | :13:26. | :13:29. | |
way -- it could. Thank you very much tool. I have to say that every week | :13:30. | :13:36. | |
-- thank you very much to you all. That's all for today. I'll be back | :13:37. | :13:39. | |
next Sunday at 11am, and Jo Coburn will be on BBC Two tomorrow at | :13:40. | :13:44. | |
midday with the Daily Politics. Remember if it's Sunday, it's the | :13:45. | :13:46. | |
Sunday Politics. | :13:47. | :13:49. |