28/09/2014 Sunday Politics South East


28/09/2014

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Morning folks and welcome to The Sunday Politics,

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live from the Conservative Conference in Birmingham.

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There will be one less Conservative MP here after Mark Reckless defected

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He joins us live from his constituency, where he has

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It has not been the best of starts for the Prime Minister, as he

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arrives in Birmingham for the last Tory conference before the election.

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On top of the Reckless defection, a junior Tory minister has resigned

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RAF jets have carried out their first mission over Iraq

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There's going to be a by eldction in Kent after Mark Reckless defected

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to UKIP ` he'll be joining ts and we'll be asking whether others

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In London, how the richest 1% are pulling further away, and why those

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priced out are choosing to move away.

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And joining me, three of the country's most loyal journalists,

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who sadly have yet to resign or defect to our inferior rivals.

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Nick Watt, Polly Toynbee and Janan Ganesh.

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And, of course, they'll be tweeting throughout the programme.

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And you too can get involved by using the hashtag #BBCSP.

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At the current rate of Tory resignations,

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Mr Cameron could be speaking to an empty hall when he makes his keynote

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address to the Tory conference here in Birmingham tomorrow.

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It's been a classic car crash of a start to the conference, with a UKIP

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defection, a minister shamed into resignation by a sex scandal and

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Ed Miliband's memory lapses now look like a little local difficulty.

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Here's what the Prime Minister had to say

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These things are frustrating and frankly counter-productive and

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rather senseless. If you want to have a European referendum, if you

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want to get the deficit down, if you want to build a stronger Britain

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that we can be proud of, there is only one option, which is to have a

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Conservative government after the next election.

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And Mark Reckless joins me now from Rochester.

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Welcome to the programme. Why did you lie to all your Conservative

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colleagues and mislead those who elected you? Well, I am keeping

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faith with my constituents and keeping my promises to them. You

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heard the Prime Minister saying that the Conservative led government was

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dealing with the deficit and cutting immigration. The reality is, we have

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increased the national debt by more in five years than even Labour

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managed in 13, and immigration is back up to the levels we saw under

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Labour. I believe in the promises I made in 2010, and I want to keep my

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words to my electorate, not least to deal with the deficit, cut

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immigration, reform the political system, to localise powers back to

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the community, particularly over house-building. The government has

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broken its word on all those things are. I want to keep my word to my

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voters here, and that is why I have done what I have done, by moving to

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UKIP. You have not kept your words to your Conservative constituency

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chairman. You assured him 48 hours ago that you would not defect, and

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you left his voice mail on the Conservative Party chairman's office

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telephone, missing to come to Birmingham to campaign for the

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Tories. This is your voice mail .. I have just picked up your e-mail ..

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So, Friday night, telling Grant Shapps you are coming to Birmingham

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to campaign for the Tories. The next day, you are joining UKIP. Why did

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you are a? I sounded a bit more hesitant on that call than I usually

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do, and I am not sure if that was the full conversation. But you

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cannot discuss these things in advance, you have to make a

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decision. I have decided the future of this country is better served by

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UKIP then it is by the Conservative Party under David Cameron. I made a

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lot of promises to my constituents, and I want to keep those promises.

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That is why I am moving to UKIP so I can deliver the change this

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country really needs. In May of this year, you said that Nigel Farage,

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quote, poses the most serious threat to a Tory victory at the election.

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So, you agree, voting UKIP means a Labour government? I think voting

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UKIP means getting UKIP. While in the past a disproportionate number

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of UKIP people were ex-Conservatives, now, they are

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winning a lot more people, from all parties. People are so disillusioned

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with the political class in Westminster, that they have not

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voted often for a generation. Those are the people Nigel Farage is

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inspiring, and frankly, he has also inspired me. What he has done in the

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last 20 years, building his party, getting people from all walks of

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life, sending up for ordinary people, I think deserves support.

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That is a key reason why I am moving. UKIP are now the agents of

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change. You said it poses them a serious threat to a Tory victory? My

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ambition is not a Tory victory. We made all of these promises in 2 10

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as Conservatives, and they have been broken. We now hear from David

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Cameron about English votes for English laws, supported by Nick

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Clegg as well, but that is what we said in our manifesto in 2010, and

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we have done absolutely nothing about it. It is not credible now to

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pretend that you are going to do those things. They have omitted to

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give every Scot ?1600 per year in definitely. If you want to stand up

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for the English taxpayer, and really tackle the debt, then UKIP are the

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party who will do that. But there is nothing principled about this, this

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is just an attempt to save your skin. You said UKIP stopped you

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winning in 2005 - UKIP did not stand in 2010, and you won. You are

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frightened that UKIP would beat you in the next election, this is to

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save your skin to me you think I am doing this because I am frightened,

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you think this is the easy option, to abandon my position in

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Parliament, but my principles on the line? On the contrary, you look at

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MPs who have moved party before almost none of them have given their

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voters to chance to have a say on what they have done. I am asking

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permission from my voters, and I am moving to UKIP because I believe

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many of the people in my constituency have been let down by a

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Conservative led government, and that what UKIP is saying appeals to

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decent, hard-working people, who want to see real change in our

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country. If they do not agree, then they can vote in a by-election and

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have their say on who they want to be their MP. I am being open and

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honest, giving people a say. I am trying to do the right thing by my

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constituents, and whatever the risk is to me personally, I think it is

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the right thing to do. It is what MPs should be in politics to try and

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do for the people they represent. Your defection, coming after Douglas

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Carswell's, confirms the claim that UKIP is largely a depository for

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disaffected right-wing Tories like yourself, isn't it? On the contrary,

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the number of people I met in Doncaster yesterday was

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extraordinary. When I first went to Conservative conferences 20 years

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ago, there was some enthusiasm for politics, I remember Norman Tebbit

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speaking against Maastricht, people fought they could change things

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there was real politics. But I do not think you will see that at

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Birmingham this week, it is PR people, lobbyists, corporate, few

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ordinary members of. At Ancaster, people had saved up for months just

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to get the rail ticket to Doncaster. People who believe in UKIP, who

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believe in Nigel Farage, who believe in the team, as agents of change,

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who can actually deal with a political class at Westminster which

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has let able down. We want proper reform to the political system,

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which David Cameron promises but does not deliver. Final question -

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after the next election, the Prime Minister is going to be either David

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Cameron or Ed Miliband, that is the choice, one or the other - who would

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you prefer? Well, what we would prefer is to get the most UKIP

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policies implemented. We want a first rate we want to deal with

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immigration. I asked about who you wanted to be Prime Minister. We will

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look at the circumstances. We need as many UKIP MPs as possible, to

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restore trust in politics. If people vote UKIP, they will get UKIP. How

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serious is this? I think it is very serious. It is the old Tory disease,

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destroyed John Major, and it has been bubbling away again. It is

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beginning to feel like the worst days of Labour in the early nineteen

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eighties. It matters, because people care passionately. It is nothing

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like Labour in the early 1980s, it is bad, but it is nothing like that.

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There are these very strong strands. People like David Davis

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writing a large piece in the Daily Mail attacking the leader on the

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first day of the conference. That is the kind of thing that Labour used

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to do. That is what David Davis does all the time! But this is authentic

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in the sense that there is a real, genuine dispute about Europe. Some

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of us were not around in the 19 0s, but I imagine it is pretty bad.

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There is the short-term problem of the by-election they might lose the

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media problem of the general election which they cannot win if

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UKIP remain anywhere near their current level of support. But in

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many ways the longer term question is the most pressing, which is, does

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it make sense for the Conservative Party to remain one party, or would

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it not be better for the hard-core of 20-30 intransigent Eurosceptics

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to essentially join UKIP or form their own party? At least the

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Conservatives would become more internally manageable. And probably

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lose the next election. Probably, yes. That is what you are advising

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them? If the reward is to have a coherent party in 15 years' time. It

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is just as well you are a columnist, not a party strategist. I

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was an anorak in the 1980s, who watched the Labour conference on the

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TV. Were you wearing your anorak? Of course I was, that is how sad I am.

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But once again the crisis from UKIP has forced the Prime Minister to

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step in an even more Eurosceptic direction. Said on television what

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he was trying not to say, which is that if he does not get his way in

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the European negotiations, he will recommend to the British people that

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we should go. He began by saying, as I have always said, and when they

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say that, you know they are saying something new. He basically said,

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Britain should not stay if it is not in Britain's interests. I think this

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is big stakes for both the Tories and four UKIP. The Tories are able

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to write off Clacton. Rochester is number 271 on the UKIP friendly

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list. If the Tories win it, big moment for them. If UKIP lose it,

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this strategy of various will be facing a bit of a setback.

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To what extent are Mark Reckless's views shared by Conservative

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The Sunday Politics commissioned an exclusive poll of Conservative

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Pollsters ComRes spoke to over ,000 councillors -

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that's almost an eighth of their council base - and Eleanor Garnier

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There is not a single party conference at the seaside this year,

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and Sunday Politics could not get through them all without a trip to

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the coast. So here we are on the shore in Sussex. There are plenty of

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Conservative councillors here, and Tory MPs as well, but one challenge

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they all face is UKIP, who have got their sights on coastal towns.

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Places like Worthing East and surer and, with high numbers of

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pensioners, providing rich pickings for UKIP. In West Sussex, the Tories

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run the county council, but UKIP are the official opposition, with ten

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councillors. We cannot lose any more ground to UKIP. If we lose any more

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ground, if you look at the way it has swung from us to them, it is

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getting near to being the middle point, where we might start losing

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seats which we have always regarded as safe seats. So, it has got to be

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stemmed, it cannot go any further. Our exclusive survey looked at the

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policy areas where the Conservatives are vulnerable to UKIP. If an EU

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Referendum Bill is called tomorrow, 45% say they would vote to leave,

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39% would stay in. Asked about immigration...

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It was those issues, Europe and immigration, that Mark Reckless said

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were the head of his decision. I promised to cut immigration while

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treating people fairly and humanely. I cannot keep that promise as a

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Conservative, I can keep it as UKIP. When asked if Conservative

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councillors would like an electoral pact with UKIP in the run-up to the

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general election, one third said they support the idea. 63% are

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opposed and 7% don't know. Conservative councillors who left

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the party to join UKIP say it wasn't easy. I left because basically the

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Conservatives left me. I saw it as a difficult decision to change, but

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what I was seeing with UKIP was freed. Me being able to speak for my

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residents. Back to our survey and on climate change 49% said it was

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happening, but that humans are not to blame. Our survey showed that 60%

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think David Cameron was wrong to pursue legalising gay marriage, with

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31% saying it was the right thing to do and 9% not sure. In Worthing

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councillors said gay marriage was divisive. That has really been an

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issue here, it might have damaged the party slightly, and I think in a

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way by setting a rule like that it is a very religious thing and it is

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almost trying to play God to make that decision. But some of the

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party's toughest decisions have been over the economy. 56% in our survey

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thought the spending cuts the Government has so far announced have

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not gone far enough. 6% were not sure. They are prepared for

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difficult decisions, but local activists say the party's voice must

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be clearer. I think the message has to be more forceful, it has to be

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specially targeted to the ex-Conservative voters who now vote

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UKIP, especially in this area, the vast majority of UKIP people are

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disillusioned Conservatives. The message has to be loud and strong,

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come back and we are the party to give you what you want. With just

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eight months until the general election, the pressure is on and

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local Conservatives are searching for clues to help their party stem

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the flow of defections. Joining me now is William Hague, the former

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Foreign Secretary and the Leader of the House of Commons.

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Tories like Mark Reckless are defecting to UKIP because they don't

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trust the party leadership to deliver on Europe, do they? They

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believe people like you and David Cameron will campaign to stay in and

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they are right. They said before they defected that people should

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vote Conservative to get a referendum on Europe, and that is

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right of course. The only way to get a referendum is to do that and this

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is the point, the people should decide. However a future government

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decides it will campaign, it should be the people of the country who

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decide. Can you say to our viewers this morning that is not enough

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powers are repatriated back to Britain, you would want to come

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out, can you say that? Our objective is to get those powers and stay in.

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The answer to the question is I won't be deciding, David Cameron

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won't be deciding, you the voters will be deciding. But you have to

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give us your view. If you don't get enough powers back, would you vote

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to come out and recommended? Our objective is to get those powers and

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be able to stay in. You just get endless speculation years in

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advance. I will decide at the time how I will vote. Surely that is the

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rational position for everyone to take but I want a referendum to take

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place. I understand that. As you pointed out to Mark Reckless just

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now, unless there is a Conservative government, people won't have that

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choice. Under a Labour government they will not get a choice at all.

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Our survey of Tory councillors shows that almost 50% would vote to leave

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the EU in a referendum. I think it showed, wasn't it 45, and 39%, but

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again, I'm pretty sure they will decide at the time. They will want

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to see what a future government achieves in a renegotiation before

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they decide what to vote in a referendum. Unless David Cameron is

:20:18.:20:21.

Prime Minister and there is a Conservative government, there will

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not be a renegotiation. That is a point you have made four times. I

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think they have got it. Your Cabinet colleague says we should not be

:20:35.:20:37.

scared of quitting the EU, but you went native in the Foreign Office,

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didn't you? You used to be a Eurosceptic, you are now the Foreign

:20:43.:20:48.

Office line man. No, I don't think so! We brought back the first

:20:49.:20:52.

reduced European budget ever in history. Even Margaret Thatcher ..

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Leaving the EU scares you, doesn't it? Not much scares me after 26

:21:00.:21:04.

years in politics but we want to do the best thing for the country.

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Where we scared when we got us out of liability for Eurozone bailouts?

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We were not scared of anybody. People said we couldn't achieve

:21:18.:21:20.

things but we negotiated these things. We can do that with a wider

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negotiation in Europe. Mr Reckless says he cannot keep the Conservative

:21:29.:21:35.

promise to tackle immigration. You have failed to keep your promise to

:21:36.:21:48.

keep net immigration down. You promised to cut it below 100,00 ,

:21:49.:21:54.

you failed. It is over 200,000 people. We have cut it from 250 000

:21:55.:22:12.

in 2005, the last figures were 240,000. I think we can file that

:22:13.:22:20.

under F four failed. It includes students, we want them in the

:22:21.:22:25.

country. You knew that when you made the promise. But has it come down?

:22:26.:22:29.

Yes, it has. Have we stopped the promise. But has it come down?

:22:30.:22:36.

coming here because of our benefit system? Yes. None of that happened

:22:37.:22:40.

under Labour. If Mark Reckless had his way, it would be more likely we

:22:41.:22:46.

would have a Labour government. They have an open door policy on

:22:47.:22:52.

immigration. You are not just losing MPs to UKIP, you are losing voters.

:22:53.:22:58.

Polling by Michael Ashcroft shows that 20% of people who voted Tory in

:22:59.:23:02.

2010 have abandoned youth and three quarters of them are voting UKIP

:23:03.:23:07.

now. We will see in the general election. Politics is very fluid in

:23:08.:23:14.

this country and we shouldn't deny that in any way but UKIP thought

:23:15.:23:18.

they were going to win the by-election in Newark, we had a

:23:19.:23:22.

thumping Conservative victory, and I think opinion polls are snapshots of

:23:23.:23:27.

opinion now. They are not forecast of the general election and we will

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be doing everything we can to get our message across. Today we are

:23:32.:23:36.

announcing 3 million more apprenticeships in the next

:23:37.:23:40.

Parliament. I think this is what people will be voting on, rather

:23:41.:23:45.

than who has defected. Your activist base once parked with UKIP. Our

:23:46.:23:53.

survey shows a third of Tory councillors would like a formal pact

:23:54.:23:59.

with UKIP. Why not? It shows two thirds are against it. No, it shows

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one third want it. I read the figures, it showed 67% don't want

:24:10.:24:15.

it. We are not going to make a pact with other parties, and they don't

:24:16.:24:19.

work in the British electoral system even if they were desirable. You are

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sharing the Cabinet committee on English votes for English laws. Is

:24:27.:24:31.

further devolution for Scotland conditional on progress towards

:24:32.:24:36.

English devolution? No, the commitment to Scotland is

:24:37.:24:39.

unconditional. We will meet the commitments to Scotland but we

:24:40.:24:43.

believe, we the Conservatives believe, that in tandem with that we

:24:44.:24:48.

have to resolve these questions about fairness to the rest of the UK

:24:49.:24:53.

as well. That will depend on other parties or the general election

:24:54.:24:58.

result. Are you committed to the Gordon Brown timetable? Yes,

:24:59.:25:03.

absolutely. So you are committed to producing draft legislation by Burns

:25:04.:25:08.

night, that is at the end of January. Will you produce proposals

:25:09.:25:13.

for English votes on English laws by then? We will, but whether they are

:25:14.:25:18.

agreed across the parties will depend on the other parties. There

:25:19.:25:25.

was no sign that they were agreeable at the Labour conference. We will

:25:26.:25:32.

produce our ideas on the same timetable as the timetable for

:25:33.:25:36.

Scottish devolution. You will therefore bring forward proposals

:25:37.:25:41.

for English votes for English laws by the end of January? Yes. And will

:25:42.:25:46.

you attempt to get them on the statute book before the election?

:25:47.:25:51.

The commitment in Scotland is to legislate after the election. You

:25:52.:25:57.

will publish a bill beforehand? We will publish proposals beforehand. I

:25:58.:26:01.

don't exclude doing something before the election, but the Scottish

:26:02.:26:06.

timetable is to legislate for the further devolution after the general

:26:07.:26:10.

election, whoever wins the election. Have you given thought as to what

:26:11.:26:16.

English votes for English laws would mean? I have thought a lot of it

:26:17.:26:22.

over 15 years. I am not going to prejudge what the outcome will be,

:26:23.:26:27.

but it does mean in essence that when decisions are taken, decisions

:26:28.:26:33.

that only affect England or only England and Wales, then only the MPs

:26:34.:26:38.

from England and Wales should be making those decisions. You can

:26:39.:26:41.

achieve that in many different ways. Is that it for English

:26:42.:26:46.

devolution, is that what it amounts to? That is devolution to England if

:26:47.:26:52.

you like, but within England there is a lot of other devolution going

:26:53.:26:56.

on and we might well want to extend that further. We have given more

:26:57.:27:01.

freedom to local authorities, there is a lot of scope to do more of

:27:02.:27:06.

that, but that in itself is not the answer to the problem of what

:27:07.:27:16.

happens at Westminster. You haven't just given Scotland more devolution

:27:17.:27:21.

or planned to do it, you have also enshrined the Barnett formula and

:27:22.:27:25.

that seems to be in perpetuity. It is widely regarded as being unfair

:27:26.:27:29.

to Wales and many of the poorer English regions. Why do you

:27:30.:27:35.

perpetuate it? It will become less relevant overtime if more

:27:36.:27:41.

tax-raising powers... It goes all the way back to the 1970s, we made a

:27:42.:27:47.

commitment on that, we will keep our commitments to Scotland as more --

:27:48.:27:52.

but as more tax-raising powers devolved, the Barnett formula is

:27:53.:27:59.

less significant. If you transfer ?5 billion of tax-raising powers to

:28:00.:28:05.

Scotland, 5 billion comes off the Barnett formula? It will be a lot

:28:06.:28:09.

more complicated than that, but yes, as their own decisions about

:28:10.:28:14.

taxation are made, the grand from Westminster will go down. And you

:28:15.:28:19.

can guarantee that if there is a majority Conservative government,

:28:20.:28:24.

there will be English votes for English laws after the election

:28:25.:28:28.

Yes, I stress again that there are different ways of doing it but if

:28:29.:28:32.

there is no cross-party agreement on that, the Conservatives will produce

:28:33.:28:35.

our proposals and campaign for them in the general election. Don't go

:28:36.:28:41.

away because I want to move on to some other matters.

:28:42.:28:47.

Now to the fight against so-called Islamic State terrorists.

:28:48.:28:49.

Yesterday, RAF Tornado jets carried out their first flights over Iraq

:28:50.:28:52.

since MPs gave their approval for air-strikes against the militants.

:28:53.:28:54.

When you face a situation with psychobabble -- psychopathic killers

:28:55.:29:03.

who have already brutally beheaded one of our own citizens, who have

:29:04.:29:07.

already launched and tried to execute plots in our own country to

:29:08.:29:12.

maim innocent people, we have a choice - we can either stand back

:29:13.:29:17.

from this and say it is too difficult, let's let someone else

:29:18.:29:22.

try to keep our country safe, or we take the correct decision to have a

:29:23.:29:25.

full, comprehensive strategy but let's be prepared to play our role

:29:26.:29:30.

to make sure these people cannot do not trust harm.

:29:31.:29:34.

And William Hague is still with me - until July he was, of course,

:29:35.:29:37.

Why have only six Tornado jets being mobilised? Do not assume that is all

:29:38.:29:50.

that will be taking part in this operation. That is all that has been

:29:51.:29:54.

announced and I do not think we should speculate. Even the Danes are

:29:55.:30:01.

sending more fighter jets. There is no restriction in the House of

:30:02.:30:03.

Commons resolution passed on Friday on what we can do. So why so

:30:04.:30:10.

little? Do not underestimate what our Tornados can do. They have some

:30:11.:30:15.

unique capabilities, capabilities which have been specifically asked

:30:16.:30:19.

for by our allies. When you are on the wrong end of six Tornados, it

:30:20.:30:22.

will not feel like a small effort. But there will be other things which

:30:23.:30:28.

can add to that effort. We are joining in a month after the

:30:29.:30:31.

operation started, we are late, we are behind America, France,

:30:32.:30:37.

Australia, Jordan, the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, one hand tied behind our

:30:38.:30:41.

backs cause of the rule about not attacking Syria - why is the British

:30:42.:30:46.

government leading from behind? First of all, we are a democratic

:30:47.:30:50.

country, and you know all about Parliamentary approval. You could

:30:51.:30:55.

have recalled parliament. We have done that, with a political

:30:56.:30:59.

consensus. Other European countries also took the decision on Friday to

:31:00.:31:04.

send their military assets. Our allies are absolutely content with

:31:05.:31:07.

that, and Britain will play an important role, along with many

:31:08.:31:11.

other nations, including Arab nations. General Sir David Richards

:31:12.:31:18.

Sheriff, who just steps down as the Nato Deputy Supreme Commander, he

:31:19.:31:24.

condemns the spineless lack of leadership and the absence of any

:31:25.:31:26.

credible strategy. It is embarrassing,isn't it? Of course,

:31:27.:31:37.

they turn into armchair generals. We are playing an important role, we

:31:38.:31:40.

are a democratic country. Your viewers will remember, we had a vote

:31:41.:31:45.

last year on military action in Syria and we were defeated in the

:31:46.:31:49.

House of Commons, a bad moment for our foreign policy. We have taken

:31:50.:31:52.

care to bring this forward when we can win a vote in the House of

:31:53.:31:56.

Commons, and that is how we will proceed. The air Chief Marshal until

:31:57.:32:05.

recently in charge of the RAF, he says, it makes no sense to bomb Iraq

:32:06.:32:09.

but not Syria. He calls the decision ludicrous. Of course, it DOES make

:32:10.:32:16.

sense to bomb Iraq, because the Iraqi government has asked for our

:32:17.:32:24.

assistance. This came up a lot in the debate on Friday, and the Prime

:32:25.:32:28.

Minister explained, similar to what I have just been saying, that there

:32:29.:32:33.

is not a political consensus about Syria in the House of Commons. When

:32:34.:32:37.

we did it last year, we were defeated, and it was described by

:32:38.:32:41.

all commentators as a huge blow to the government and to our foreign

:32:42.:32:47.

policy. So, we will bring forward proposals when there is a majority

:32:48.:32:50.

in this country to do so in the House of Commons. Professor Michael

:32:51.:32:56.

Clarke, one of the world top experts on military strategy and history, he

:32:57.:33:02.

says there are very few important IS targets in northern Iraq, that they

:33:03.:33:07.

are all in Syria, and we are limiting ourselves to the periphery

:33:08.:33:11.

of the campaign. First of all, just because you are not doing everything

:33:12.:33:14.

does not mean you should not do something. Secondly, the United

:33:15.:33:18.

States and other countries are engaged in the action against

:33:19.:33:22.

targets in Syria. This is a coalition effort, with people doing

:33:23.:33:28.

different things. Thirdly, if we were to put their proposal to the

:33:29.:33:32.

House of Commons tomorrow, and it was defeated, we would not have

:33:33.:33:36.

achieved a great deal. You do not know it would have been defeated.

:33:37.:33:40.

The Labour Party has given no indication they would have supported

:33:41.:33:45.

that. So, you are hostage to the Labour Party? We have to win a

:33:46.:33:49.

democratic vote in the House of Commons, and the Labour Party is a

:33:50.:33:52.

very large part of the House of Commons. You are asking us to pursue

:33:53.:33:58.

a policy which at the moment could be defeated in Parliament. Is it not

:33:59.:34:03.

embarrassing to be on the wrong side of so many of these military

:34:04.:34:08.

experts? Why should we trust the judgment of here today, gone

:34:09.:34:13.

tomorrow, politicians? We have the military experts with us now. We

:34:14.:34:19.

have a national security council, we do not have sofa government, unlike

:34:20.:34:23.

the last government. The national security council is chaired by the

:34:24.:34:26.

Prime Minister. Alongside the Chief of Defence Staff and the heads of

:34:27.:34:34.

the intelligence agencies. And we take decisions together with the

:34:35.:34:38.

people who have the information now. So, you will know what British

:34:39.:34:44.

and American intelligence says about Syria. The Prime Minister has said

:34:45.:34:49.

there is a danger that the British-born jihadists will come

:34:50.:34:53.

back and attack us. But the intelligence reports which you will

:34:54.:34:56.

have seen are clear - Al-Qaeda and its associates are selecting,

:34:57.:35:01.

indoctrinating and training jihadists in Syria, not Iraq. Does

:35:02.:35:07.

that not make the Syrian exclusion even more ludicrous? I cannot

:35:08.:35:14.

comment on intelligence. Is the situation in Syria I direct threat

:35:15.:35:19.

to this country? Yes, it is. Have we excluded action? No, we haven't

:35:20.:35:25.

Could you come back to the House? The Prime Minister said, it was in

:35:26.:35:29.

the motion put to the House of Commons, that if we want to take

:35:30.:35:33.

action in Syria, we will come back to the House of Commons. But we have

:35:34.:35:38.

not taken any decision about that and we would not do so if we thought

:35:39.:35:44.

we were going to be defeated again. The government supports US strikes

:35:45.:35:46.

on Syria, show you must relieve they are legal. Either way the legal

:35:47.:35:54.

basis differs from one country to another, according to their reading

:35:55.:35:57.

of international law. But you have supported it. We do believe that

:35:58.:36:03.

they and Arab countries are taking action legally and we support their

:36:04.:36:07.

action. But I understand your legitimate questions. But it comes

:36:08.:36:14.

back to your basic question, why in Iraq and not Syria. Nonetheless it

:36:15.:36:20.

is important to take action in Iraq. We are also engaged in Syria

:36:21.:36:26.

in building up the political strength of the more moderate

:36:27.:36:31.

opposition and in trying to bring about a peace agreement, and we do

:36:32.:36:35.

not exclude action in Syria in the future. If we propose doing

:36:36.:36:42.

something, then we ask for the specific legal advice. Why would you

:36:43.:36:47.

not ask for the legal advice anyway? Because you have to be sure

:36:48.:36:52.

of the legal advice at the time and also we do not comment on the advice

:36:53.:36:56.

given to us by the Law officers Mr Blair ended up publishing his. That

:36:57.:37:01.

was because there was a huge legal dispute. So you have not had legal

:37:02.:37:06.

advice yet that Britain attacking Syria would be legal? The legal

:37:07.:37:10.

situation is unlikely to be the barrier in this case, let me put it

:37:11.:37:14.

that way. Within international law, you can act in the event of extreme

:37:15.:37:24.

humanitarian distress and elective self-defence, so one can imagine

:37:25.:37:27.

strong legal justification, but of course, we will take the legal

:37:28.:37:28.

advice at the time. watching The Sunday Politics. We say

:37:29.:37:31.

goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who Scotland. Coming up here in 20

:37:32.:37:36.

minutes, The Week Ahead. Hello,

:37:37.:37:49.

I'm Natalie Graham and this is the Coming up later ` as air strikes

:37:50.:37:50.

begin in Iraq, how do we stop young men like Ibrahim Kamara

:37:51.:37:56.

becoming radicalised in Sussex. As the UKIP conference ends on

:37:57.:38:01.

a bombshell and the Conserv`tives gather in Birmingham there's plenty

:38:02.:38:06.

to discuss this morning ` we're joined by the Conserv`tive MP

:38:07.:38:08.

for Crawley, Henry Smith, and Mike Glennon, the UKIP leader on

:38:09.:38:12.

West Sussex County Council who's also a parliamentary candid`te

:38:13.:38:15.

for Shoreham and East Worthhng. First ` we knew they shared the same

:38:16.:38:18.

views on Europe and immigration but the announcement yesterday that

:38:19.:38:21.

Mark Reckless and Nigel Far`ge are now officially political bedfellows

:38:22.:38:24.

took everyone by surprise. In case you missed it,

:38:25.:38:26.

here's the moment it happendd. Today I am leaving the Consdrvative

:38:27.:38:35.

Party. And joining UKIP. Well Mr Reckless

:38:36.:38:51.

and Mr Farage are as we spe`k A short time ago I spoke to the now

:38:52.:38:53.

former Conservative MP for the town. You made this decision becatse of

:38:54.:39:06.

your political principles btt you have taken an electoral gamble. Not

:39:07.:39:13.

least because many of your former colleagues feel angry about the way

:39:14.:39:17.

you have lied to them. If you do not win this seat for UKIP you `re

:39:18.:39:24.

damaging yourself and Nigel Farage. I accept this as a big personal risk

:39:25.:39:31.

for me. But I am in politics and other politicians should be in

:39:32.:39:35.

politics to do the right thhng by their constituents. I made ` series

:39:36.:39:40.

of promises and 2010 about cutting emigration and reducing the deficit

:39:41.:39:44.

and deforming the political system. I want to keep those promisds. The

:39:45.:39:49.

Government has not done so. `` reforming the political system. I

:39:50.:39:57.

want to get our country back and get the politics we deserve. Yot

:39:58.:40:03.

repeatedly mention local issues You must have done the maths here. I

:40:04.:40:07.

knew working on the basis that you can win around the disaffected

:40:08.:40:16.

voters you met yesterday? I have got a fighting chance in this

:40:17.:40:22.

by`election. It will not be easy. Clearly there will be some

:40:23.:40:27.

conservatives who are upset with the decision I have made. But I feel I

:40:28.:40:33.

had to put my country and mx constituents first rather than the

:40:34.:40:38.

party I was a member of previously. I hope many of those Conservatives,

:40:39.:40:42.

and certainly many CV are ddlighted at the decision, and some h`ve said

:40:43.:40:49.

they had previously moves to UKIP but it was because of the stance I

:40:50.:40:54.

had made on immigration that they were staying with me. Some Labour

:40:55.:40:59.

people who would not have voted for me because I was a conservative but

:41:00.:41:04.

have been pleased with the work I have been doing in the

:41:05.:41:14.

constituency... But you havd taken a carpeted risk. Let us talk `bout

:41:15.:41:19.

immigration. You see that as a big factor. You know it is not that easy

:41:20.:41:28.

to get numbers down in the way that your new party says it can. It is

:41:29.:41:35.

not easy. The biggest probldm is we have completely alerted immhgration

:41:36.:41:40.

from the European Union. Constituents come to my surgery of

:41:41.:41:49.

African heritage and they are looking to marry someone abroad but

:41:50.:41:57.

they are turned away becausd they are not earning ?18,500 per year,

:41:58.:42:05.

which is a precondition to larry someone from outside the EU. They

:42:06.:42:11.

seek French and German people living here and EU rules. We need fairness

:42:12.:42:22.

for people from this countrx, particularly of Commonwealth

:42:23.:42:27.

heritage, rather than just having priority to unskilled peopld from

:42:28.:42:34.

Southern Europe all the timd. Housing, you know how much ht is

:42:35.:42:41.

needed in your constituency. You are crossing to UKIP because yot are

:42:42.:42:44.

opposed to Government plans to build more houses. How do you squ`re that

:42:45.:42:49.

with constituents who want to own their own home? We have fantastic

:42:50.:42:56.

housing developments here. H want to get on with building them so we have

:42:57.:43:00.

more houses. We have a new train station. 13 houses on this

:43:01.:43:06.

riverside. It will be brillhant for local people. Perhaps also for

:43:07.:43:12.

people who want to commute to London but live here. But we have to look

:43:13.:43:16.

at the numbers and look at what is the right place to build hotses To

:43:17.:43:22.

build 5000 houses in a site of scientific interest, where does it

:43:23.:43:30.

stop? We promised we would get rid of these top`down targets. Now we

:43:31.:43:36.

are seeing 1000 houses per xear is the minimum target. Even under

:43:37.:43:40.

labour we were only having to build 800. It must be nice for yot to be a

:43:41.:43:47.

big fish in a small pond. Do you think other MPs will follow suit? I

:43:48.:43:55.

have been made very welcome. Nigel Farage lives in Kent. A lot of

:43:56.:44:02.

people in Kent are supporting as. BR pleased with what I have done. Other

:44:03.:44:05.

MPs will have to speak for themselves.

:44:06.:44:18.

I enjoyed by a candidate who is standing against Nigel Farage. We

:44:19.:44:24.

will talk to our studio guests first. This is a nightmare scenario

:44:25.:44:33.

for your party. It is bizarre. As a Conservative MP myself, I bdlieve we

:44:34.:44:41.

should have a referendum. Why would you damage the chance of eldcting a

:44:42.:44:45.

majority Conservative Government, the only party who will delhver a

:44:46.:44:51.

referendum, by switching to UKIP. What you do is more likely lake Ed

:44:52.:44:58.

Miliband the Prime Minister. Labour are against an EU referendul. Or you

:44:59.:45:04.

might have Ocean between Labour and the Liberal Democrats and Nhck Clegg

:45:05.:45:07.

is equally against a referendum The only way to get a referendul as a

:45:08.:45:15.

Conservative Government. A lot of your backbench colleagues fdel you

:45:16.:45:18.

have not been able to tackld immigration. It is a key issue for

:45:19.:45:24.

voters. Immigration from outside the EU is down significantly. Btt that

:45:25.:45:28.

is this issue in terms of free movement. It is not something that

:45:29.:45:34.

you can negotiate. That is why we need a referendum on future

:45:35.:45:39.

membership of the European Tnion. That is why we dry to legislate last

:45:40.:45:45.

year. We were defeated by the Liberal Democrats and Labour. We are

:45:46.:45:49.

going to dry to introduce that bill again an actual but to have fun in

:45:50.:46:01.

out referendum. I think there should be an DU

:46:02.:46:06.

referendum. That is what I stood up for in the House of Commons and in

:46:07.:46:11.

my constituency. That's what I will continue to do. The only wax we will

:46:12.:46:16.

achieve that is with a majority Conservative Government. Anxthing

:46:17.:46:25.

else is a dangerous distraction Has UKIP targeted you yet? I am sure

:46:26.:46:34.

they will stand in my consthtuency. Have you been asked to join the

:46:35.:46:44.

party? No. We are going to see others possibly? If you want a

:46:45.:46:55.

referendum on the EU the only way to achieve it is to elect a

:46:56.:46:59.

Conservative Government. Nigel Farage launched an assault on Labour

:47:00.:47:06.

at the conference in Doncaster. The momentum is with him at the moment.

:47:07.:47:13.

You are Labour 's main weapon against ten in Thanet. How galling

:47:14.:47:20.

was it for you when Ed Miliband let immigration out of his speech last

:47:21.:47:25.

week. We have not seen UKIP on the ground. Labour is leading in

:47:26.:47:32.

Thanet. We have got the ide`s. You are not talking about the things

:47:33.:47:38.

that people want you to. Ed Miliband did not talk about immigrathon. It

:47:39.:47:42.

is the number`1 issue with lost of the people you need to over to your

:47:43.:47:49.

party. I disagree. People are not talking about the European Tnion.

:47:50.:47:52.

Not the European Union. Immigration. Immigration dods come

:47:53.:47:58.

up on the door away, but so does jobs. A lot of people are otr

:47:59.:48:04.

concern is that we will enforce the minimum wage and make sure that

:48:05.:48:12.

companies cannot undercut w`ges Surveys show that they do not trust

:48:13.:48:17.

Labour on immigration and they do trust UKIP on immigration. TKIP is

:48:18.:48:21.

now targeting the squeezed liddle that Ed Miliband used to talk about

:48:22.:48:26.

with the new business tax r`te. You are not speaking to them at the

:48:27.:48:31.

moment. The tectonic plates of this country are shifting. You c`n see

:48:32.:48:35.

the chaos that is beer with the Conservatives at the moment. Tory

:48:36.:48:41.

MPs are defecting to UKIP. There is chaos. The Tory candidate standing

:48:42.:48:47.

against me used to be with TKIP We are seeing that Labour has policies

:48:48.:48:51.

that can deliver for working people. Dealing with the NHS, private sector

:48:52.:48:57.

housing, low wages. Labour has policies to deal with that. UKIP

:48:58.:49:03.

does not. Interesting what we are stealing beer from Thanet. Xour

:49:04.:49:08.

leader does not have time to campaign. `` interesting wh`t we are

:49:09.:49:17.

dealing from Thanet. Another defection from the Conservative

:49:18.:49:24.

Party. People are clear that the election next year is a chohce. If

:49:25.:49:28.

you want independence for this country on the UKIP can delhver it.

:49:29.:49:32.

The other three parties are committed to staying in the European

:49:33.:49:37.

Union. If you do that mass tnlimited immigration cannot be avoiddd. You

:49:38.:49:43.

talk the talk and make bold claims about immigration but as I said

:49:44.:49:48.

earlier it is easy to do th`t. But the Coalition Government fahled to

:49:49.:49:53.

meet even its own targets. Immigration is 240,000 per xear You

:49:54.:49:58.

want to get this down to 50,000 It takes time. First we have two

:49:59.:50:03.

established the right to veto immigration to the levels wd are

:50:04.:50:10.

happy with. We cannot do thhs. Our masters in Brussels and Str`sbourg

:50:11.:50:13.

dictate what we have to do. The first step is getting out of the EU.

:50:14.:50:23.

The UKIP position is better technology, passport monitoring

:50:24.:50:28.

more people working on passport control. These other parties do not

:50:29.:50:33.

have it. It is good for you to get Mark reckless because he will not

:50:34.:50:36.

embarrass your party in the way that others may have done. He is a safe

:50:37.:50:43.

pair of hands. I will be calpaigning with hen as I have been othdr

:50:44.:50:49.

candidates. Clacton is painted purple right now. I am lookhng

:50:50.:50:54.

forward to the result. We are concerned with events closer to

:50:55.:50:59.

home. What about this survex that we had. This idea of doing a ddal with

:51:00.:51:05.

the Conservatives. You have got the momentum behind you. I am gtessing

:51:06.:51:07.

that is not something you w`nt to consider. Deals are not on the

:51:08.:51:13.

table. Cooperation may be. Alliances, who knows? I want people

:51:14.:51:22.

to vote for a party that is capable of delivering an EU referendum. That

:51:23.:51:29.

is Conservatives. We're UKIP have been elected when they have

:51:30.:51:35.

important decisions to make such as a budget 's decision they bought to

:51:36.:51:41.

reduce it. That is not true. We were happy to reason by 25 million, not

:51:42.:51:46.

30 million, which is what you wanted. The 5 million saving we were

:51:47.:51:50.

going to allocate to protecting homes for older people. We got fed

:51:51.:51:56.

up with those lies at the l`st election. People want investment in

:51:57.:52:01.

the highways. I do not think we should be voting to cut spending on

:52:02.:52:07.

the highways. It would help you know went if you kept its not st`nd

:52:08.:52:15.

against you in Crawley. In Lay the figures suggest that UKIP took more

:52:16.:52:22.

from the Labour vote omitted from our report. The only way to get our

:52:23.:52:28.

referendum is with the Consdrvative Party.

:52:29.:52:32.

Now as MPS were preparing to vote on air strikes in Iraq, last week

:52:33.:52:35.

it emerged the first British victim of US strikes in Syria was Hbrahim

:52:36.:52:38.

He's one of four brothers, went to school in the city,

:52:39.:52:42.

and according to his friends he was radicalised overnight,

:52:43.:52:45.

A single mum raising four boys and they grow up, you think it's

:52:46.:52:56.

time for them to help you. @nd somebody just warned you just like

:52:57.:52:58.

that. You didn't know where it came from. When

:52:59.:53:02.

they were younger I raised them up, and you come one day and yot let him

:53:03.:53:06.

listen to you other than me. He looked at me,

:53:07.:53:08.

looked at his brother and ttrned his back on us. He doesn't know what

:53:09.:53:10.

he's done. Predominantly they're aged

:53:11.:53:13.

between 18 and 25 and they `re of an educational background highdr than

:53:14.:53:16.

the UK average. They are invariably male. But having talked to some of

:53:17.:53:20.

them and having looked closdly at their cases there are as many

:53:21.:53:28.

personal quirks as there ard people out there and as many journdys as

:53:29.:53:32.

there are British jihadists. The

:53:33.:53:34.

youngsters expressed the nedd for humanitarian aid and they dhd

:53:35.:53:38.

involve themselves in charitable work. And of course the concern was

:53:39.:53:45.

there and the signs were not as visible to us.

:53:46.:53:50.

The issue does raise the question of what more wd can be

:53:51.:53:54.

doing in terms of conversathons and discussions with all of the faith

:53:55.:53:57.

communities in Brighton to lake sure that radicalisation isn't h`ppening.

:53:58.:54:00.

I have no evidence that it is and in my conversations with

:54:01.:54:05.

Muslim leaders that is cert`inly what they are reflecting back to me

:54:06.:54:09.

but I guess a case like this does raise the question again. That means

:54:10.:54:12.

that we have to be absolutely sure that this isn't happening in our

:54:13.:54:14.

city. The fact is it is happening and none

:54:15.:54:30.

of those people we spoke to seems to normal how it is happening. `` seems

:54:31.:54:48.

to know. The vastly job at ` of the Muslim community work well with the

:54:49.:54:54.

rest of the committee in Cr`wley. `` the majority of the Muslim community

:54:55.:55:01.

work well. We need to see how those who might be disaffected, and young

:55:02.:55:07.

people can become disaffectdd across`the`board, how we can better

:55:08.:55:13.

target them to see that extremism is a very dangerous route that will

:55:14.:55:19.

ruin the rest of their lives. The missing gap year is that thdy do not

:55:20.:55:23.

know who is doing it and how they are doing it. Without that how can

:55:24.:55:36.

we start projects that. It? One of the projects that has been `pproved

:55:37.:55:47.

for Crawley concerns the vile messages on social media th`t

:55:48.:55:50.

encourages people into radicalisation. That can be directly

:55:51.:55:56.

tackled. Also going into schools. Dealing with women in the community

:55:57.:56:03.

who are influential. But thd mother of Ibrahim Kamara did not know what

:56:04.:56:09.

was happening. Precisely. There is more to be done in that respect But

:56:10.:56:15.

illustrates that the threat posed by IS is not only in the Middld East,

:56:16.:56:22.

but it is in our communities as well and we need a combined security

:56:23.:56:28.

approach. Is it going to be enough? Especially with air strikes taking

:56:29.:56:33.

place? It will make things worse. No. We need to play our part,

:56:34.:56:38.

interestingly with other Middle East countries playing their part. This

:56:39.:56:43.

should not just be Western Durope. This is also a response that

:56:44.:56:53.

countries in the Middle East are giving. IS are evil. They nded to be

:56:54.:57:05.

tackled both in the Middle Dast and we need to tackle extremism, which

:57:06.:57:10.

we are doing here, as well. Your party is against air strikes. But

:57:11.:57:16.

the actions we are seeing from IS means there is support for `ir

:57:17.:57:22.

strikes. There is, but they do not learn lessons. In 2003 we ldarned

:57:23.:57:26.

that interfering on that sc`le at fire. We cannot solve your problems

:57:27.:57:32.

for them. Offering humanitarian aid is right and we support it. The idea

:57:33.:57:37.

of intervening on a militarx bases is pointless. The only be to

:57:38.:57:42.

influence the situation is to go in large scale on the ground and that

:57:43.:57:45.

is the last thing we want. Do we just let them carry on what they are

:57:46.:57:54.

doing? The Arab diplomatic channels. Negotiations. That is the most

:57:55.:57:59.

constructive way forward. Wd do not have a magic wand. Do you h`ve

:58:00.:58:10.

suggestions to stop this radicalisation? There needs to be

:58:11.:58:19.

more intervention in schools. Multiculturalism is fantasthc, but

:58:20.:58:22.

people need to sign up to one British culture. Tolerance, fairness

:58:23.:58:24.

and decency. And now it's time for some of the

:58:25.:58:30.

other political stories you may have Manston Airport has been sold to

:58:31.:58:47.

the team which redeveloped the Pfizer plant in Sandwich. Against

:58:48.:58:50.

campaigners' hopes they want to use the site for housing, manuf`cturing,

:58:51.:58:52.

schools and not for aviation. We're

:58:53.:58:55.

not airport people and when we bought it it certainly wasn't an

:58:56.:58:59.

airport. As I understand it all of the equipment has already bden sold.

:59:00.:59:01.

Meanwhile the Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls used his speech at thd Labour

:59:02.:59:04.

Conference to try and hurry along the decision over airport

:59:05.:59:06.

expansion in the South East. No more kicking it

:59:07.:59:09.

into the long grass, but taking the right decisions for Britain's

:59:10.:59:11.

long`term future. Revolt on the

:59:12.:59:14.

roads and railways ` Public Accounts Committee s`id

:59:15.:59:19.

fewer than one third of drivers are

:59:20.:59:23.

happy with the state of our potholed roads. And Passenger Focus found

:59:24.:59:25.

that two thirds of us are unhappy with the way rail companies deal

:59:26.:59:28.

with delays. The industry s`ys it's working on it.

:59:29.:59:30.

That's why we're spending millions of pounds

:59:31.:59:34.

improving how we get inform`tion about disruptions to passengers

:59:35.:59:37.

Eastbourne's pier reopened hn part this weekend just two months afer

:59:38.:59:39.

the fire. I know you are not going to

:59:40.:59:54.

Birmingham until Tuesday but it will be a strange atmosphere. Wh`t does

:59:55.:59:57.

David Cameron have to do to rally the troops? Tomorrow we are

:59:58.:00:05.

campaigning in Crawley. Then I am heading up to Birmingham. Wd need to

:00:06.:00:09.

get the message more clearlx across that only a conservative majority

:00:10.:00:14.

will be able to deliver a rdferendum on membership of the EU.

:00:15.:00:20.

Thank you both very much. That is all for now.

:00:21.:00:22.

in his resignation speech w`s his opposition to a proposed hotsing

:00:23.:00:26.

We'll be taking a closer look at it next week.

:00:27.:00:29.

In the meantime, my thanks to Henry Smith and to Mike Glennon

:00:30.:00:40.

My thanks to you both. Andrew, back to you.

:00:41.:00:56.

Here we are back in Birmingham with the Conservatives. The Tories

:00:57.:01:04.

thought all they had to do was come here, have a rally, a jamboree, and

:01:05.:01:10.

off they go to the races, or in their case the general election Two

:01:11.:01:15.

races later it hasn't quite worked out like that. Let's look at the

:01:16.:01:21.

state of this conference as it gets under way. On our panel we are

:01:22.:01:28.

joined by David Davis. You wrote an article in the Mail on Sunday this

:01:29.:01:32.

morning which was an Exocet at the heart of David Cameron's modernising

:01:33.:01:39.

strategy. It was designed to act as a lever. It was designed to cause

:01:40.:01:45.

trouble. No, we are in the running for the next general election. One

:01:46.:01:49.

of the characteristics of having a five year fixed term Parliaments is

:01:50.:01:54.

that the last year is about campaigning. It is important we beat

:01:55.:01:58.

Miliband, he would be a disastrous Prime Minister. You think the whole

:01:59.:02:04.

modernising strategy was a wrong turn, that is what the article said.

:02:05.:02:13.

Yes. Has that opened the door to UKIP? It has left a lot of people

:02:14.:02:32.

disillusioned with politics. What do you do to get it right? Who was

:02:33.:02:35.

listening to you? Frankly we need to take a more

:02:36.:03:10.

robust series of policies. How many more UKIP defections will there be?

:03:11.:03:14.

I do not think there will be any more. I would be very surprised I

:03:15.:03:23.

know Nigel Farage has a brilliant sense of timing, but I do not think

:03:24.:03:27.

he has got the resources to do that, namely, another Tory MP. So it could

:03:28.:03:33.

be another Labour one, maybe? I think an awful lot will hinge on

:03:34.:03:39.

what happens in Rochester. Because that is not a slam dunk. Clack and

:03:40.:03:44.

unfortunately looks like it will be a walkover for them. But Rochester

:03:45.:03:56.

is a different scene. And so, there could be a kind of Newark situation.

:03:57.:04:02.

When I campaigned in Newark, two labour families I spoke to said they

:04:03.:04:07.

would vote Tory to keep UKIP out. How bad was the Labour conference

:04:08.:04:13.

last week? One politician said after he had a really bad performance that

:04:14.:04:17.

his television performance was suboptimal. I think that would be a

:04:18.:04:23.

good way of describing Ed Miliband's speech. The problem for

:04:24.:04:26.

Ed Miliband in memorising speeches is that we are not auditioning for a

:04:27.:04:29.

new lines Olivier, we're rehearsing for Prime Minister. He failed the

:04:30.:04:35.

Laurence Olivier test, and therefore failed the Prime Minister test. I

:04:36.:04:38.

think the real problem for him was forgetting to mention the deficit.

:04:39.:04:42.

He spoke from the heart about issues which she really cares about, the

:04:43.:04:47.

NHS, the rupture between wages and inflation, and forgot the deficit.

:04:48.:04:51.

Those issues are important, but if you are not addressing things like

:04:52.:04:55.

the deficit, then people are really not going to be listening to your

:04:56.:04:59.

messages on the areas that matter. Was it bad? Yes, suboptimal, I am

:05:00.:05:07.

afraid. I hope that this ends the nonsense of leaders wasting their

:05:08.:05:10.

time learning speeches off by heart. You could learn a Shakespeare

:05:11.:05:15.

play in the time it takes to learn 70 minutes of a leader's speech I

:05:16.:05:19.

think we should just go back to sensible reading what you have

:05:20.:05:23.

written. You can then alter it just beforehand. A lot of things were

:05:24.:05:27.

changing, which is not surprising, but he did not have time to learn

:05:28.:05:32.

it. It is a silly gimmick, it worked once or twice, but that is enough

:05:33.:05:36.

for that. Despite some of the derision of Mr Miliband, the Tories

:05:37.:05:39.

are flat-lining in the sun decks, they have been there almost since

:05:40.:05:43.

the disastrous budget, the omnishambles, of 2012, Labour is

:05:44.:05:49.

still several points ahead, nothing seems to change? And David Cameron

:05:50.:05:54.

is now the leader in trouble. It is almost as if a week is a long time

:05:55.:05:58.

in politics. I thought the Labour and friends was Saab --

:05:59.:06:06.

sub-suboptimal. It was so parochial. You could've watched the top

:06:07.:06:11.

speeches without knowing that the borders of Ukraine, and Iraq and

:06:12.:06:16.

Syria were in question. I hope, because of Friday's discussion in

:06:17.:06:20.

Parliament, that this conference will raise its sights a bit, and we

:06:21.:06:24.

will have something in Cameron's speech, possibly that of George

:06:25.:06:28.

Osborne as well, which is a bit more global. People hoped UKIP had gone

:06:29.:06:33.

away during the summer, people at this conference, I mean, but it is

:06:34.:06:40.

back with a bang. They are still up at 15% in the polls, the Tories

:06:41.:06:44.

languishing on 32 - what is going to change? UKIP won 3% of the last

:06:45.:06:50.

election, I always thought they would get about 6%. If, by the turn

:06:51.:06:57.

of the year, they are still in double digits, I think at that point

:06:58.:07:02.

you can begin to wake of his party's chances of winning. I have

:07:03.:07:07.

had three people say to me so far, come election day, it will be fine,

:07:08.:07:12.

people will sober up and so on. It will be all right on the night is

:07:13.:07:15.

not a very good strategy, frankly. When they get past 5%, I start to

:07:16.:07:23.

bite into our 3-way marginal seats, with liberals, Labour and Tories,

:07:24.:07:27.

and we have got about 60 of those in the Midlands and the north, so it

:07:28.:07:32.

really is quite serious. And if I may steal one of David's lines, when

:07:33.:07:36.

you were interviewing Mark Reckless this morning, and was not talking

:07:37.:07:41.

about the EU referendum, he was talking about how he felt he had

:07:42.:07:45.

broken his pledges to the electorate because the Conservatives he said

:07:46.:07:48.

had failed on immigration and on the deficit, and those sort of

:07:49.:07:51.

bread-and-butter issues could be really potent on the doorstep, which

:07:52.:07:55.

means the Tories have got to run the kind of campaign they ran in Newark,

:07:56.:07:59.

which is a real centre ground, Reddan but a campaign, in which they

:08:00.:08:03.

would hope to get Liberal Democrat and Labour voters out to vote

:08:04.:08:08.

tactically against UKIP. I think today we have seen Cameron been

:08:09.:08:13.

pushed to the right. He has had to say, yes, I would leave Europe,

:08:14.:08:17.

which he has never said before. It is a huge stepping stone, a big

:08:18.:08:21.

difference. It takes the Tory party somewhere else. May be get them a

:08:22.:08:28.

lot of votes. But it has not so far. But I think it loses a lot of

:08:29.:08:34.

people. The industry organisations, for example. The prospect of going

:08:35.:08:38.

out of Europe, but is quite a fight for them. Is it not the lesson that

:08:39.:08:45.

you can out UKIP UKIP? Well, you do not need to, really. I agree, last

:08:46.:08:54.

week was sub-sub-suboptimal. Hold on, that is enough subs! I would not

:08:55.:09:04.

be crowing too much! But what I was going to say, he left out something

:09:05.:09:09.

incredibly important, the deficit. But how many people outside the M25

:09:10.:09:14.

are thinking about the deficit? One problem we face with Miliband is, he

:09:15.:09:19.

is good at politics and bad at economics, in a way. He comes up

:09:20.:09:23.

with bonkers policies which people love, price-fixing, things like

:09:24.:09:27.

that. Our problem will be about relevance on the doorstep. I do not

:09:28.:09:32.

think at the end of the day it will be about Europe. But was there not a

:09:33.:09:37.

moment of danger for you at the conference, that one area where

:09:38.:09:40.

Miliband is potentially vulnerable is not having credible team with

:09:41.:09:44.

business. Who turned up at the Labour conference, the head of

:09:45.:09:47.

Airbus, saying, we have got to stay in the European Union? The danger is

:09:48.:09:53.

that Europe allows the Labour Party to gain credibility with business.

:09:54.:10:01.

There is some truth in that. But we are in effectively the home

:10:02.:10:04.

straight, the last six months, and people will be fussing about prices

:10:05.:10:09.

and jobs. Very parochial. They will not be saying, what does the CBI

:10:10.:10:13.

think about this? It is, what is happening to me, in my town, in my

:10:14.:10:18.

factory, in my office. That is where the fight will be. Is it not the

:10:19.:10:27.

truth that if UKIP stays anywhere near around this level of support,

:10:28.:10:31.

it is impossible for the Tories to win an overall majority? I would

:10:32.:10:36.

say, if it is this level of support, it is impossible for the Tories to

:10:37.:10:39.

finish as the biggest party, even in a hung Parliament. The Tories keep

:10:40.:10:44.

trying to win back UKIP voters with cold logic - witches it makes Ed

:10:45.:10:48.

Miliband becoming prime minister more likely. UKIP is basically a

:10:49.:10:54.

vessel phenomenon, coming from the gut, and David Cameron has never

:10:55.:10:58.

found the emotional pitch in his rhetoric to meet that. I wonder

:10:59.:11:01.

whether we will see that moron Wednesday. It is just not him. I

:11:02.:11:13.

hope we do. -- more on Wednesday. I hope you're right that we do

:11:14.:11:17.

actually engage on emotion. So far with UKIP, our policy has been to

:11:18.:11:23.

insult them. It does not work. I know that from my constituency. We

:11:24.:11:27.

have to say to them, there is a wider Tory family, we understand you

:11:28.:11:31.

are patria, we understand you are worried about your family, and we do

:11:32.:11:36.

the same. What does it tell us about the state of the Tories, seven

:11:37.:11:39.

months from the election, the economy is going well, they are not

:11:40.:11:43.

that far behind Labour, and yet there is all sorts of leadership

:11:44.:11:47.

speculation? It is extraordinary. They are doing well, they are in

:11:48.:11:51.

with a shout. It depends. UKIP has to be kept below 9% of. -- below

:11:52.:12:03.

9%. I think David Cameron is one of the few who speaks human, actually

:12:04.:12:07.

talks quite well to people and does not look like a swivel-eyed loons.

:12:08.:12:11.

Whereas a lot of people behind him do. You look at Duncan Smith and

:12:12.:12:16.

Eric Pickles, they are all kind of driven, ideological men, with very

:12:17.:12:20.

right-wing policies. And nice people! Don't hold back! He is not

:12:21.:12:28.

the Addams family, he is basically quite human. I think a lot of people

:12:29.:12:34.

do not realise how ideological he is himself and how well he has led his

:12:35.:12:37.

party in the direction they all want to go. You go on about him being

:12:38.:12:42.

this metropolitan moderniser, I do not think that is what he is,

:12:43.:12:47.

really. It may not be visible from the guardian offices in the

:12:48.:12:52.

metropolis! Everybody where you are, Polly, is a metropolitan moderniser.

:12:53.:12:57.

And where you are, too. That is the nature of living in London. The

:12:58.:13:01.

trouble is, when these people get into Westminster, they are part of

:13:02.:13:04.

Westminster, too. If you could only win by being an outsider, the moment

:13:05.:13:10.

you get in, you are done for. All teeing up nicely for Boris Johnson

:13:11.:13:13.

to be the next leader? I do not think so! The point of my Exocet, or

:13:14.:13:23.

lever, this morning, is that I think this is winnable. If we are good

:13:24.:13:27.

Tories for the next six months, we can do this. It is by denying ground

:13:28.:13:32.

to UKIP, not giving in to them, not buckling. Denying ground. Thank you

:13:33.:13:38.

to our panel. They did all right today, but the normal. That is your

:13:39.:13:42.

lot for today. I am back tomorrow. We will have live coverage of George

:13:43.:13:47.

Osborne's speech to the conference. I am back next week in Glasgow for

:13:48.:13:51.

The Sunday Politics at the Labour conference. How could you miss

:13:52.:13:56.

that? Remember, if it is Sunday it is The Sunday Politics. Bye-bye

:13:57.:14:25.

of statutory press regulation in sponge cake may be a bridge too far.

:14:26.:14:40.

I think I've overdone it with the pistachios

:14:41.:14:43.

and somehow, the custard's split, but it's too late!

:14:44.:14:47.

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