30/10/2016 Sunday Politics South East


30/10/2016

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Morning folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics.

:00:36.:00:39.

Theresa May says she wants to help people who are

:00:40.:00:41.

"just about managing" - so should she reverse

:00:42.:00:44.

George Osborne's cuts to benefits that are supposed to help people

:00:45.:00:46.

Prominent London Imam Shakeel Begg is an extremist speaker,

:00:47.:00:53.

says the High Court, after claims made on this programme.

:00:54.:00:56.

So why is Mr Begg still being allowed to advise the Police?

:00:57.:01:01.

Hillary Clinton fights back over the FBI's renewed investigation

:01:02.:01:06.

into her use of a private email server - is this the boost

:01:07.:01:09.

Donald Trump needed to reignite his chances of winning the White House?

:01:10.:01:14.

The Jungle has gone but now there's a new problem.

:01:15.:01:18.

Kent and Medway said they are full, so what next for the child

:01:19.:01:21.

Now it is just a question of building that runway with the

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political problems that lie ahead. And haunting the studio

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on this Halloween weekend, the most terrifying political

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panel in the business - Tim 'Ghost' Shipman,

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'Eerie' Isabel Oakeshott and First this morning, two

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new models of car to be built, securing 7,000 jobs at the car plant

:01:40.:01:47.

in Sunderland and a further 28, 00 The news from Nissan on Thursday

:01:48.:01:50.

was seized on by Leave campaigners as evidence that the British

:01:51.:01:57.

economy is in rude health This morning, the Business

:01:58.:01:59.

Secretary, Greg Clark, was asked what assurances were given

:02:00.:02:03.

to the Japanese firm's bosses Well, it's in no-one's the interest

:02:04.:02:06.

for there to be tariff barriers to the continent

:02:07.:02:13.

and vice versa. So, what I said is that our

:02:14.:02:18.

objective would be to ensure that we have continued access to the markets

:02:19.:02:21.

in Europe and vice versa, without tariffs and without

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bureaucratic impediments. That is how we will approach

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those negotiations. We're joined now from Newcastle

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by the Shadow Business Welcome to the programme. Labour has

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been a bit sceptical about this Nissan decision. Can we begin by

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making it clear just what a great achievement this is, above all for

:02:53.:02:57.

the workers of Sunderland who have some of the highest productivity in

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the world, have never been on strike for 30 years, and produce cars of

:03:03.:03:07.

incredible quality. This is their victory, isn't it? Andrew, you are

:03:08.:03:13.

absolutely right. The Nissan plant in Sunderland is among the most

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productive in the world. The workers of Nissan are amongst the most

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productive as well. And it's really a victory for them and for the trade

:03:22.:03:27.

unions and the business organisations, and everybody who

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campaigned to make sure that the government couldn't ignore their

:03:30.:03:36.

future. It's our future. I'm the MP for Newcastle. It makes a huge

:03:37.:03:40.

difference to the region. We are a region that still likes to make

:03:41.:03:44.

things that work. It is a huge part of our advanced manufacturing

:03:45.:03:49.

sector. So it's really something we welcome as well as the job security.

:03:50.:03:55.

I'm glad we have got that on the record from the Labour shadow

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business secretary. But your Shadow Chancellor, John McDonnell, claims

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the government is ignoring manufacturers and cares only about a

:04:03.:04:08.

small banking elite. In what way is safeguarding 30,000 industrial jobs

:04:09.:04:11.

in the North safeguarding a financial elite? As I said, we're

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really pleased that the campaigning by trade unions and the workforce,

:04:17.:04:20.

and business organisations, meant the government felt they couldn t

:04:21.:04:24.

ignore Nissan workers. Let's also be clear that we want that kind of job

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security for all of those working in manufacturing and in other sectors

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as well. And sweetheart deals for one company, no matter how important

:04:34.:04:38.

they are, that does not an industrial strategy make. Why'd you

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say it is a sweetheart deal? Greg Clark told the BBC this morning that

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what was assured to Nissan is an assurance he gives to the whole

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industrial sector? I was really pleased to see Greg Clark felt he

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had to say something, even though it's sad that we having our

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industrial strategy, you like, or our approach to Brexit delivered

:05:05.:05:07.

piecemeal to the media rather than to the British people and Nissan,

:05:08.:05:12.

actually. But he want published the letter. He said he has told us what

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is in the letter and that reassurances given on training, on

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science and on supporting the supply chain for the automated sector. You

:05:21.:05:25.

must be in favour all -- of all of that? We are in favour of an

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industrial strategy. Greg Clark unlike Sajid Javid, cannot say

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industrial strategy. I'm still puzzling to find out what it is you

:05:40.:05:45.

disagree with. Let me put the question. You said the assurances he

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has given to Nissan are available to the car manufacturing sector in

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general and indeed to industry in general. What is your problem with

:05:55.:05:59.

that? Two things. Let him publish the letter so we can see that, let

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him have the transparency he's pretending to offer. But also, we

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need an industrial strategy that values -- that is values based and

:06:10.:06:17.

joined. He talked about electric cars and supporting green cars. That

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was in regard to Nissan. At the same time the government has slashed

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support for other areas of green technology. So what is it? That is

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not to do with the Nissan deal. Labour implied at some stage there

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was some financial inducement, some secret bribes, that doesn't seem to

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be the case. You are not claiming that any more -- any more. Then you

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claimed it was a sweetheart deal for one company. That turns out not to

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be the case. What criticism are you left with on this Nissan deal? I

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would be really surprised if all that Nissan got was the reassurances

:06:58.:07:04.

that Greg Clark is shared with us. He didn't answer the question of

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what happens if we can't get continued tariff free access to the

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single market, if we are not within the single market or the Customs

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Union. Do you really think a negotiator like Nissan, who are very

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good at negotiating, they would have excepted making this significant

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investment without some further reassurances? Do you think there is

:07:25.:07:30.

some kind of financial bride and if so what is the evidence? I would

:07:31.:07:35.

like to see the letter published and I would also like to understand what

:07:36.:07:41.

would happen... There are 27 countries which need to agree with

:07:42.:07:46.

the deal we have from Brexit. What will Nissan, how will Nissan remain

:07:47.:07:49.

competitive? How will the automotive industry remain competitive? Greg

:07:50.:07:55.

Clark says he reassured them on that. But how will that be so if we

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do not get access? We haven't heard anything about that. He talks about

:08:00.:08:08.

reassurances given to Nissan. We need to make -- to know where we're

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going to make sure Brexit is in the interest of all workers, not only

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those who work for a Nissan and not only those who can get the attention

:08:17.:08:23.

of Greg Clark. He assured Nissan that Britain would remain a

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competitive place to do business. That was the main assurance he gave

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them. He would help with skills and infrastructure and all the rest

:08:31.:08:35.

Since you are -- intend to repeal the trade union laws that have made

:08:36.:08:39.

strikes in Britain largely a thing of the past, and you plan to raise

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corporation tax, you couldn't give Nissan the same assurance, could

:08:43.:08:47.

you? We could absolutely give Nissan the assurance that we will be, our

:08:48.:08:52.

vision of the future of the UK, is based on having a strong

:08:53.:08:56.

manufacturing sector. Repealing trade union laws? As we have seen at

:08:57.:09:07.

Nissan, the industrial sector is dependent on having highly trained,

:09:08.:09:15.

well skilled workers. -- highly skilled, well-trained. You don't

:09:16.:09:19.

have that by getting -- having an aggressive policy and trade union

:09:20.:09:23.

laws or by slashing corporation tax and not supporting manufacturing

:09:24.:09:28.

investment. Remember, the last government took away the

:09:29.:09:30.

Manufacturing allowances which supported Manufacturing and slashed

:09:31.:09:36.

corporation tax. That is their solution. It is a low tax, low skill

:09:37.:09:39.

economy they want. Thank you. Sorry I had to rush you.

:09:40.:09:44.

I'm grateful for you joining us I'm still struggling to see what is

:09:45.:09:54.

left of Labour's criticism? Yeah, except for this. This was a valid

:09:55.:09:59.

point she just made. What we know for sure is that Greg Clark could

:10:00.:10:02.

say to Nissan, my aim is to get tariff free deal. There is no way he

:10:03.:10:09.

could guarantee that. None of us know that. I don't think that was

:10:10.:10:13.

enough. I think clearly there was a more detailed package involving

:10:14.:10:20.

training and other things. He has acknowledged this, albeit we do not

:10:21.:10:23.

know the precise mechanism. What I think is interesting about this is

:10:24.:10:27.

if you reverse what happened this week, at a time when the government

:10:28.:10:30.

says Britain is open for business and it is going to have an

:10:31.:10:35.

industrial strategy, so far it is a bit vaguely defined. Nissan hadn't

:10:36.:10:39.

made this commitment. Imagine what would have happened? It is an

:10:40.:10:42.

impossible scenario. The government seems to me was obliged to make sure

:10:43.:10:49.

this didn't happen. Let's not forget Nissan has invested hundreds of

:10:50.:10:53.

millions in the north-east. It has been a huge success story. When I

:10:54.:10:57.

spoke to workers from Nissan, they were so proud because they went to

:10:58.:11:01.

Japan to teach the Japanese had to be more productive. The idea that

:11:02.:11:05.

Nissan was just going to walk away from this given its track record,

:11:06.:11:09.

its importance, wasn't really credible. The government had some

:11:10.:11:15.

bargaining chips. Absolutely, of course they weren't going to walk

:11:16.:11:19.

away. The majority of people in the area in which Nissan is braced -

:11:20.:11:23.

based, voted for Brexit. Nissan knows it is in a powerful position

:11:24.:11:28.

because it is an emotive sector Clearly the government didn't want

:11:29.:11:31.

to have some big showdown. I honestly don't think this is a

:11:32.:11:38.

smoking gun. The Labour Shadow minister really struggled to

:11:39.:11:40.

articulate what exactly she thinks the government is hiding. I think

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the reassurances were given were pretty anodyne, really. They were

:11:44.:11:48.

anodyne and general. And what Greg Clark was setting out was an

:11:49.:11:51.

objective and he made the right noises, and Nissan exercised its

:11:52.:11:55.

right to sabre rattle. It does have a history of doing that. The one

:11:56.:12:02.

thing that would now be clear given Greg Clark's performance this

:12:03.:12:05.

morning on the BBC, is that if we were to discover some kind of

:12:06.:12:08.

financial incentive directly linked to this investment, not more for

:12:09.:12:13.

skills or infrastructure, that is fine, but some direct financial

:12:14.:12:18.

investment, compensation for tariffs, which would be illegal

:12:19.:12:20.

under World Trade Organisation rules, what you might call a

:12:21.:12:26.

financial bride, the sect -- the business Secretary's position would

:12:27.:12:30.

be untenable? He would be in a very difficult position indeed. Just

:12:31.:12:33.

released the letter. There is nothing to hide. Put it out there.

:12:34.:12:38.

The most revealing thing is that people are getting wildly excited

:12:39.:12:43.

about the fact Greg Clark announced Britain's negotiating position would

:12:44.:12:47.

be that we would like tariff free trade with Europe. This is regarded

:12:48.:12:50.

as an insight into what this comment is doing and it says a great deal

:12:51.:12:53.

about how little we have been told in Parliament and the media about

:12:54.:12:59.

what they are up. Do you think it is exciting we are going for tariff

:13:00.:13:03.

free trade? We're easily excited these days. We don't know. This is

:13:04.:13:10.

where these things are at such a tentative phase. We don't know how

:13:11.:13:14.

the rest of the European Union is going to respond to Britain's

:13:15.:13:20.

negotiating hand. We know Britain once the best of everything, please.

:13:21.:13:25.

It is a starting point. But that is not how it is going to end up. We

:13:26.:13:30.

are getting wider than that. We have will have to see.

:13:31.:13:32.

Now, Universal Credit, a single payment made to welfare

:13:33.:13:34.

claimants that would roll together a plethora of benefits whilst

:13:35.:13:37.

encouraging people into work by making work pay.

:13:38.:13:39.

But have cuts to the flagship welfare scheme reduced work

:13:40.:13:42.

incentives and hit the incomes of the least well-off?

:13:43.:13:47.

Well, some of the government's own MPs think so, and,

:13:48.:13:49.

as Mark Lobel reports, want the cuts reversed.

:13:50.:13:56.

Theresa May says she wants a country that works

:13:57.:13:59.

for everyone, that's on the side of ordinary, working people.

:14:00.:14:03.

It means never writing off people who can work and consigning them

:14:04.:14:06.

to a life on benefits, but giving them the chance to go out

:14:07.:14:09.

and earn a living and to enjoy the dignity that comes

:14:10.:14:12.

But now some in her party are worried that the low earners

:14:13.:14:19.

will be hit by changes to Universal Credit benefit system

:14:20.:14:23.

originally set up to encourage more people into work.

:14:24.:14:25.

We also need to focus tax credits and Universal Credit

:14:26.:14:28.

Concern centred on the Government's decision in the July 2015 budget

:14:29.:14:35.

to find ?3 billion worth of savings from the Universal Credit bill.

:14:36.:14:44.

Conservative MP Heidi Allen is working on a campaign to get MPs

:14:45.:14:47.

in her party to urge the Prime Minister to think again.

:14:48.:14:54.

I want her to understand for herself what the outcomes might

:14:55.:14:57.

be if we press ahead with the Universal Credit,

:14:58.:14:59.

Do you think Theresa May, right now, understands what you understand

:15:00.:15:03.

To be fair, unless you really get into the detail,

:15:04.:15:06.

and I have through my work on the Work and Pensions

:15:07.:15:09.

Select Committee, I don't think anybody does.

:15:10.:15:11.

Independent economic analysts at the IFS agree with Heidi Alan

:15:12.:15:17.

that cuts to Universal Credit weaken incentives to work.

:15:18.:15:21.

One of the key parts of the Universal Credit system

:15:22.:15:23.

That is how much you can earn before your credit

:15:24.:15:27.

As the Government has sought to save money,

:15:28.:15:30.

both under the Coalition and now they Conservative Government,

:15:31.:15:32.

both under the Coalition and now the Conservative Government,

:15:33.:15:34.

that work allowance has been cut, time and time again.

:15:35.:15:36.

The biggest cuts happened in the summer budget of 2015.

:15:37.:15:39.

That basically reduces the amount of earnings you get to keep

:15:40.:15:42.

It weakens the incentive people have to move into work.

:15:43.:15:45.

What do changes to the Universal Credit system mean?

:15:46.:15:47.

The Resolution Foundation think tank has crunched the numbers.

:15:48.:15:51.

If you compare what would have happened before the July 2015 summer

:15:52.:15:54.

budget to what will happen by 2 20, even if you take into account gains

:15:55.:15:58.

in the National Living Wage and income tax cuts,

:15:59.:15:59.

recipients will be hit by annual deductions.

:16:00.:16:05.

Couples and parents would receive, on average, ?1000 less.

:16:06.:16:08.

A dual-earning couple with two children under four,

:16:09.:16:10.

with one partner working full-time on ?10.50 an hour and the other

:16:11.:16:13.

working part-time on the minimum wage for around 20

:16:14.:16:16.

hours a week, they would receive ?1800 less.

:16:17.:16:23.

Hit most by the changes would be a single parent

:16:24.:16:26.

with a child under four, working full-time

:16:27.:16:27.

I think, if I'm honest, it is unrealistic, given

:16:28.:16:41.

the economic climate, to expect everything to be reversed.

:16:42.:16:44.

What I would like to see is an increase in the work

:16:45.:16:50.

allowances to those people who will be hardest hit.

:16:51.:16:53.

That is single parents and second earners hoping to return to work,

:16:54.:16:56.

because they are the people we need to absolutely make

:16:57.:16:58.

The Sunday Politics understands that about 15 to 20 Conservative MPs

:16:59.:17:03.

are pushing for changes ahead of the Autumn Statement.

:17:04.:17:07.

A former cabinet minister told us that they believed further impact

:17:08.:17:10.

analysis should be done to find out if any mitigation measures

:17:11.:17:13.

Former Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith, an architect

:17:14.:17:19.

of the system, now says the cuts should be reversed.

:17:20.:17:23.

But his former department has told us that it has no plans to revisit

:17:24.:17:28.

the work allowance changes announced in the budget last year.

:17:29.:17:33.

What I would say to Heidi Allen and IDS, they got it right the first

:17:34.:17:37.

time and they should stick to the vote they cast last year

:17:38.:17:40.

because these reforms actually do make sense.

:17:41.:17:41.

What interests me is the fact we are trying to move people

:17:42.:17:44.

off welfare into work, we are raising the wages people

:17:45.:17:47.

earn by massively increasing the minimum wage and this

:17:48.:17:49.

People are coming off welfare and into work.

:17:50.:17:53.

Campaigners are pushing for savings to come from other areas to relieve

:17:54.:17:55.

The other thing we have to start looking at is the triple

:17:56.:18:01.

Financially it has been a great policy, and it was absolutely right

:18:02.:18:05.

that we lifted pensioners who were significantly behind,

:18:06.:18:07.

for many years, in terms of income levels, but they have

:18:08.:18:10.

I think it is time for us to look at that policy again,

:18:11.:18:15.

because is costing us an awful lot of money.

:18:16.:18:17.

With just over three weeks to wait until the Conservative leadership's

:18:18.:18:20.

new economic plan is unveiled in the Autumn Statement,

:18:21.:18:23.

its top team is under pressure from within its own ranks to use it

:18:24.:18:27.

And I'm joined now by former Work and Pensions Secretary,

:18:28.:18:36.

Welcome back to the programme. Theresa May said she is on the side

:18:37.:18:44.

of the just managing, the working poor. But they are about to be hit

:18:45.:18:50.

from all sides. Their modest living standards are going to be squeezed

:18:51.:18:53.

as inflation overtakes pay rises, they will be further squeezed

:18:54.:18:57.

because top-up benefits in work are frozen. Incentives to work are going

:18:58.:19:00.

to be reduced by the cuts in universal benefits. So much for

:19:01.:19:05.

being on the side of those just managing? Theresa was right to focus

:19:06.:19:10.

on this group. The definition has to be the bottom half, in economic

:19:11.:19:17.

terms, of the social structure. It doesn't look good for them? This is

:19:18.:19:21.

the point I am making, it is an opportunity to put some of this

:19:22.:19:25.

right. One of the reasons I resigned in March is because I felt the

:19:26.:19:27.

direction of travel we had been going in had been to take far too

:19:28.:19:31.

much money out of that group of people when there are other areas

:19:32.:19:35.

which, if you need to make some of those savings, you can. The key bit

:19:36.:19:39.

is that the group needs to be helped through into work and encouraged to

:19:40.:19:42.

stay in work. There was a report done with the IFS, when we were

:19:43.:19:46.

there, at Universal Credit. It said Universal Credit rolled out, as it

:19:47.:19:53.

should have been before the cuts, people would be much more likely to

:19:54.:19:56.

stay in work longer and earn more money. It is a net positive, but

:19:57.:20:00.

that is now called into question. Let's unpick some of the detail but

:20:01.:20:05.

first, do you accept the words of David Willets? It says on the basis

:20:06.:20:08.

of the things I read out to you that the just managing face a significant

:20:09.:20:15.

and painful cut in real terms if we continue on the way we are going. I

:20:16.:20:20.

do, in essence. That is the reason why I resigned. I felt Heidi raised

:20:21.:20:29.

that issue as well, that we got the balance wrong. It is right that

:20:30.:20:32.

pensioners get to a certain point, when they are on a level par, doing

:20:33.:20:36.

the right thing over five years Staying with that process has cost

:20:37.:20:41.

us ?18 billion extra this year, in total. It will go on costing another

:20:42.:20:50.

5 billion. Then there is the issue of tax allowances. I want to remind

:20:51.:20:55.

you and viewers what David Cameron told the Conservative conference in

:20:56.:21:01.

2009. If you are a single mother with two children, earning ?150 a

:21:02.:21:07.

week, the withdrawal of your benefits and the additional taxes

:21:08.:21:10.

that you pay me on that for every extra you earn, you keep just 4p.

:21:11.:21:18.

What kind of incentive is that? 30 years ago, this party won and

:21:19.:21:24.

election fighting against 98% tax rates for the Rex richest. I want us

:21:25.:21:33.

today to show even more anger about 96% tax rates for the very poorest

:21:34.:21:38.

in our country. Real anger, and effective rate of over 90%.

:21:39.:21:44.

Universal Credit reduces that. Some will still face, as they lose

:21:45.:21:48.

benefits and pay tax, a marginal rate of over 75%. That is still too

:21:49.:21:53.

high? Yes, it is the collision between those going into work at the

:21:54.:21:58.

moment they start paying tax. A racial Universal Credit is set at

:21:59.:22:02.

65%. You can call that the base marginal tax rate. 1.2 million will

:22:03.:22:09.

face 75%? That is the point about why the allowances are so important.

:22:10.:22:12.

The point about the allowances which viewers might not fully understand

:22:13.:22:15.

is that it was set, as part of Universal Credit, to allow you to

:22:16.:22:19.

get certain people, with certain difficulties, as they cross into

:22:20.:22:23.

work, to retain more benefit before it is tapered away as they go up in

:22:24.:22:30.

hours. A lone parent, who might have various issues, you want her to have

:22:31.:22:33.

a bigger incentive than a single person that does not have the same

:22:34.:22:37.

commitments. It is structured so that somebody who has difficulty

:22:38.:22:41.

going to work, they all have slightly different rates. What

:22:42.:22:44.

happened is that last year a decision was taken to reduce tax

:22:45.:22:47.

credits, and, on the back of that, to reduce allowances. I believe

:22:48.:22:51.

given everything that happened now, we need to restore that to the point

:22:52.:22:57.

where it helps those people crossing over. You say a decision was taken,

:22:58.:23:00.

it was a decision by the former Chancellor George Osborne in the

:23:01.:23:05.

summer budget. Other decisions were taken in successive Budgets to raise

:23:06.:23:09.

the Universal Credit budget, which resulted in the disincentive being

:23:10.:23:12.

higher than many people wanted. Do you accept that has been the

:23:13.:23:18.

consequence of his decisions? I was in the Government, we take

:23:19.:23:20.

collective responsibility. I argued this was not the right way to go,

:23:21.:23:24.

but when you are in you have to stay with it if you lose that argument.

:23:25.:23:27.

There was another attempt before the spending review last year to

:23:28.:23:31.

increase the taper, so the marginal rate would have gone up. I managed

:23:32.:23:36.

to stop that. I'm Sibley saying what we made as a decision last

:23:37.:23:40.

year, given the circumstances and given that the net effect of all of

:23:41.:23:45.

that, I think it is time for the Government to ask the question, if

:23:46.:23:49.

we are in this to help that group of people, Universal Credit is

:23:50.:23:53.

singularly the most powerful tool. One of the Argentine aid in the

:23:54.:23:55.

paper published on Thursday, we are set going on doing two more races of

:23:56.:24:01.

the tax threshold, taking more people out of tax. That has a

:24:02.:24:08.

diminishing effect on the bottom section. Only 25p in that tax rate

:24:09.:24:13.

will help any of those. Most of it goes to middle income? You and I

:24:14.:24:18.

will benefit more from that. With Universal Credit, every pound you

:24:19.:24:22.

put into that will go to the bottom five tenths. That is why I designed

:24:23.:24:25.

it like that. He pressed the button and immediately start to changed

:24:26.:24:30.

circumstances. Should the cuts in Universal Credit that Mr Osborne

:24:31.:24:33.

introduced, against your argument, should they be reversed? I believe

:24:34.:24:39.

so. I believe you can do it even if there is concern about spending I

:24:40.:24:42.

don't believe you need to go through with the continuing raise the tax

:24:43.:24:46.

threshold. Cost is dependent on inflation, but give or take. It is

:24:47.:24:54.

in the Tory manifesto? Has more than doubled. What is in the manifesto,

:24:55.:24:59.

and Lasse Prime Minister made this clear in conference, we want to

:25:00.:25:05.

improve the life chances of people. Today's announcement on the Green

:25:06.:25:09.

paper is what I wrote over the last two and a half years. Big changes

:25:10.:25:12.

necessary to how we deal with sickness benefit. That can now be

:25:13.:25:16.

done because of Universal Credit, because people can go back to work

:25:17.:25:19.

and it tapers away their benefits. It is the most powerful tool to sort

:25:20.:25:23.

our people that live in poverty Universal Credit. We need to make

:25:24.:25:29.

sure it lands positively. If Mr Osborne's cuts were reversed, what

:25:30.:25:32.

you and some of your backbench Tory colleagues want to do, how would

:25:33.:25:36.

that improve the incentives of the working poor, as they try to get on

:25:37.:25:42.

in life? They have to pay more tax, they lose some benefits. How would

:25:43.:25:48.

it improve it? Would many still face a 75% rate? The key question is

:25:49.:25:52.

first and foremost, as people move through income to the point where

:25:53.:25:57.

they are getting taxed, that group will be enormously benefited by the

:25:58.:26:01.

re-emergence of these allowances at the right level. That is what the

:26:02.:26:06.

IFS have said, that is what the Resolution Foundation are saying,

:26:07.:26:11.

and the Centre For Social Justice is saying. You have to get that group,

:26:12.:26:14.

because they are most likely to be drifting into poverty and less

:26:15.:26:19.

incomes are right. Would it help those who face a 75% margin? We

:26:20.:26:24.

don't face that. Exactly right. People much poorer than us do. I

:26:25.:26:28.

would love to get the marginal rate down to testify percent, and lower,.

:26:29.:26:37.

-- down to 65%. It is a balance of how you spend the money. I would

:26:38.:26:40.

prefer to do that rather than necessarily go ahead with threshold

:26:41.:26:48.

razors. I think the coronation of the marginal reduction of 65%,

:26:49.:26:54.

getting it down to 60%, plus more allowances, will allow Universal

:26:55.:26:56.

Credit to get to the group that is going to be, and the report written

:26:57.:27:00.

by the IFS and ourselves, it shows it is going to be the most dynamic

:27:01.:27:04.

and direct ability of a Government to be able to influence the way that

:27:05.:27:08.

people improve their incomes in the bottom five deciles. Would you take

:27:09.:27:15.

on extra work if you knew you were going to lose 75% of it? Even 6 %?

:27:16.:27:21.

This has been my argument all along. Universal Credit can help that

:27:22.:27:26.

enormously. One point that goes missing, 70% of the bottom five

:27:27.:27:31.

deciles will be on Universal Credit. Whatever change you make to

:27:32.:27:33.

Universal Credit has a dramatic and immediate effect I am arguing,

:27:34.:27:40.

genuinely, it is time to rethink this. The Prime Minister wants to

:27:41.:27:43.

make this a priority. I am completely with her on this. I think

:27:44.:27:47.

she made a really good start. To deliver this, we need to... You have

:27:48.:27:53.

a lot of work to do to deliver it. Because it is a manifesto

:27:54.:27:56.

commitment, or because they want to do it, stopping increasing the

:27:57.:28:02.

personal allowances are not acceptable, what about bringing to

:28:03.:28:04.

an end, by the end of the parliament, the pension triple lock

:28:05.:28:10.

that pensioners enjoy to improve and put more money to the working poor?

:28:11.:28:16.

What about that? Well, you are absolutely right that there is now

:28:17.:28:20.

the danger, I think, of a mess balance between the generations

:28:21.:28:23.

Quite rightly at the beginning, when we came in, we have a commitment as

:28:24.:28:27.

a Conservative Party in a manifesto to get pensions back onto earnings.

:28:28.:28:34.

It was moved to a triple lock that guaranteed a minimum. What about

:28:35.:28:38.

ending up now? I understand it is a promise through the Parliament, but

:28:39.:28:43.

after 2020? I am in favour of getting it back to innings and

:28:44.:28:46.

allowing it to rise at reasonable levels. Moving from earnings to the

:28:47.:28:51.

triple lock has cost ?18 billion this year. Here was a high, under

:28:52.:28:55.

pressure, as the Government was scratching around to pay more money

:28:56.:28:59.

out of working age areas, when the budget was almost out of control on

:29:00.:29:03.

the pension side. I'm in favour of helping pensioners, but now they are

:29:04.:29:07.

up to a reasonable level, at a steady rate, that can be afforded by

:29:08.:29:10.

Government, which takes the pressure off, working age people have to pay

:29:11.:29:15.

for that. In years to come, time to end the triple lock

:29:16.:29:26.

and use the savings to help these people we have been talking about?

:29:27.:29:31.

As part of a load of packages, yes. It would also help with the

:29:32.:29:32.

intergenerational fairness argument. Thank you for being with us.

:29:33.:29:36.

Now, a prominent London Imam called Shakeel Begg -

:29:37.:29:38.

who is Chief Imam the Lewisham Islamic Centre - is an extremist.

:29:39.:29:41.

That was the verdict of the judge in a libel action that Mr Begg took

:29:42.:29:44.

against the BBC, after we described him as an Islamic extremist

:29:45.:29:47.

Mr Begg had complained about a short segment in an interview in November

:29:48.:29:51.

2013 with Farooq Murad, the then head of the Muslim Council

:29:52.:29:54.

of Britain, an organisation which claims to represent British

:29:55.:29:56.

In that interview, we described Mr Begg as an extremist speaker

:29:57.:30:02.

who had hailed jihad is the greatest of deeds.

:30:03.:30:05.

From his base of the Lewisham Islamic Centre, Mr Begg has been

:30:06.:30:08.

involved in a number of community organisations, including

:30:09.:30:12.

the Police Independent Advisory Group in Lewisham,

:30:13.:30:15.

Lewisham Council's Advisory Council on Religious Education

:30:16.:30:20.

and as a volunteer chaplain at Lewisham Hospital.

:30:21.:30:23.

But in his judgment, Mr Justice Haddon-Cave called

:30:24.:30:28.

Mr Begg a Jekyll and Hyde character - a trusted figure in his local

:30:29.:30:31.

community, but when talking to predominantly Muslim audiences

:30:32.:30:34.

he shed the cloak of respectability and revealed the horns of extremism.

:30:35.:30:39.

The judge cited one speech made by Mr Begg at a rally

:30:40.:30:42.

outside Belmarsh Prisonm- the high security prison that houses

:30:43.:30:45.

terrorists - as particularly sinister.

:30:46.:30:48.

The judge said the imam was expressing admiration and praise

:30:49.:30:51.

Following Friday's judgment, the hospital trust have told us that

:30:52.:30:57.

Mr Begg's status as a voluntary chaplain has been terminated.

:30:58.:31:01.

We have been told by Lewisham Council he is no longer

:31:02.:31:05.

on their Religious Education Committee.

:31:06.:31:06.

The Metropolitan Police have confirmed that

:31:07.:31:08.

Mr Begg remains a member of their Independent Advisory Group

:31:09.:31:13.

in Lewisham, as well as the borough's faith group.

:31:14.:31:23.

I am joined by Haras Rafiq, chief executive of the Quilliam

:31:24.:31:27.

Foundation. Welcome to the programme. I have here in my hand a

:31:28.:31:34.

statement from the trustees of the Lewisham Islamic Centre. They reject

:31:35.:31:40.

the judge's ruling as fanciful and say they are unequivocal and

:31:41.:31:42.

unwavering in their support of Shakeel Begg as their head imam

:31:43.:31:49.

What do you make of that? To be honest, it doesn't surprise me. At

:31:50.:31:53.

the end of the day he is only the imam of that mosque because he

:31:54.:31:57.

belongs to the same theological fundamentalist views that the mosque

:31:58.:32:03.

would portray. If they were to say he was an extremist, they would be

:32:04.:32:07.

saying in fact that they have allowed extremist preaching and

:32:08.:32:11.

extremist theology within their walls. I think this is a very

:32:12.:32:16.

important decision and a very important judgment by the judge

:32:17.:32:23.

First of all, these people like to operate in a linear, under a veneer

:32:24.:32:27.

of respectability. When that veneer is taken away, there are a number of

:32:28.:32:32.

things that can happen. First of all, the BBC did very well to stand

:32:33.:32:36.

by their guns and say, we're not going to be intimidated by somebody

:32:37.:32:43.

who is threatening to taking -- to take us to court for potential

:32:44.:32:47.

libel. Many other media companies have done that in the past and

:32:48.:32:52.

people have capitulated. Also, this has exposed him. Legally now, here's

:32:53.:32:57.

some deal can be classified as an extremist preacher, somebody who

:32:58.:33:01.

promotes religious violence. I think the mosque really needs to take a

:33:02.:33:05.

step back and say, how we part of the problem that we are facing

:33:06.:33:09.

within society? Or are we going to be part of the solution? It really

:33:10.:33:18.

concerns me. The High Court judge says that Mr Begg's speeches were

:33:19.:33:23.

consistent with an extremist Salafist is the most worldview. What

:33:24.:33:30.

is Salafist is and how widespread is it in UK mosques? -- mosque. It

:33:31.:33:40.

comes from the Middle East. It is from Saudi Arabia. The enemy for

:33:41.:33:43.

them was the old colonial Ottoman Empire. There is the quiet Salafist

:33:44.:33:52.

to get some with their lives, lives outside society. There is a

:33:53.:33:54.

revolutionary who tries to convert other people to their worldview And

:33:55.:33:58.

then there is the Salafist jihad ease. People like Islamic State etc.

:33:59.:34:06.

We have seen of increased in recent decades because of money that has,

:34:07.:34:08.

growing from the Middle East. When that is mixed with a political

:34:09.:34:14.

ideology, it becomes potent. Do we have a political -- particular

:34:15.:34:18.

problem in Britain with this in our mosques? Absolutely. Without the

:34:19.:34:24.

theology that says hate the other, hate other Muslims, that

:34:25.:34:27.

excommunicate other people, that says it is OK to fight and is good

:34:28.:34:32.

to fight when you have got an enemy, we wouldn't really have a jihadi

:34:33.:34:36.

problem. Really that is something we have to tackle. The number of

:34:37.:34:44.

mosques and institutions supporting Salafist and Islam is has been on

:34:45.:34:49.

the increase. Do we have a problem with what the judge called Jekyll

:34:50.:34:53.

and Hyde characters who hide their extremism except when they are

:34:54.:34:59.

speaking to specific groups? Absolutely. One of the things we

:35:00.:35:04.

have focused on in the past, a number of hate preachers now in

:35:05.:35:09.

prison, people like Anjem Choudary, and everybody focused on them. But

:35:10.:35:12.

there is a range of people operating under that level. People who will

:35:13.:35:16.

show one face to the community because they actually need that for

:35:17.:35:21.

a respectability. They need that for a legitimacy. They need that to

:35:22.:35:25.

operate. When they are behind closed doors and talking to their

:35:26.:35:29.

constitution, that is when you will see the real face of what these

:35:30.:35:34.

people believe. It is an increasing phenomenon. We are seeing it more.

:35:35.:35:38.

And we're going to carry on seeing it. Not just has the Lewisham mosque

:35:39.:35:45.

stuck by him, but given the clarity of the judge's ruling, are you

:35:46.:35:50.

surprised that the Metropolitan police would wish to continue with

:35:51.:35:54.

Mr Begg as an adviser? I'm absolutely shocked that that

:35:55.:35:57.

decision. What Uzzy going to do Advise them on how to deal with

:35:58.:36:03.

extremist preachers and promote religiously motivated violence? I

:36:04.:36:06.

don't know what he's going to advise them on. Because we now have a judge

:36:07.:36:12.

that has ruled against him and actually classified him as an

:36:13.:36:14.

extremist and somebody who promotes religious violence, we actually have

:36:15.:36:19.

a possibility for the CPS to actually prosecute him. There is a

:36:20.:36:24.

law that has been in place since 2005 called religiously motivated

:36:25.:36:27.

violence. If he has been classified as somebody who promotes this, there

:36:28.:36:33.

is a potential for the CPS to prosecute. I want to called into

:36:34.:36:37.

question other organisations, interfaith organisations, other

:36:38.:36:40.

Muslims groups, who say they want to fight extremism, I call on them to

:36:41.:36:47.

say, this guy is an extremist preacher, we should cut our ties

:36:48.:36:56.

from him. This was a very high risk strategy by the BBC. The exposure

:36:57.:37:00.

could have been over ?1.5 million of licence payers money. Will this make

:37:01.:37:06.

it more difficult for Jekyll and Hyde characters to behave as Mr Begg

:37:07.:37:12.

has behaved? Absolutely. It will do. One of the things they will now have

:37:13.:37:16.

to make sure is that they are a lot more careful. Careful with what they

:37:17.:37:23.

say to their own constituency. It won't solve the theological problem.

:37:24.:37:27.

But it will actually stop other people from operating in this manner

:37:28.:37:32.

and allow other media organisations to have the confidence to expose

:37:33.:37:35.

them when they do. Haras Rafiq, thank you for joining us.

:37:36.:37:38.

It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

:37:39.:37:40.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now

:37:41.:37:43.

Hello, I'm Julia George. the Week Ahead.

:37:44.:37:56.

This is the Sunday Politics in the south-east.

:37:57.:38:00.

Coming up later: Our farmers get ?3 billion

:38:01.:38:08.

After 2020, no cash is guar`nteed, so will Brexit mean the end

:38:09.:38:12.

Joining us in the studio to talk about that and our other stories

:38:13.:38:23.

are Caroline Lucas, the Green MP for Brighton P`vilion,

:38:24.:38:25.

and also the co-leader of the party Maria Caulfield,

:38:26.:38:27.

Now, we've all seen the images of fires burning as the French

:38:28.:38:33.

authorities demolished the refugee camp known as the Jungle.

:38:34.:38:35.

The fate of hundreds of unaccompanied children

:38:36.:38:37.

Now the chaos of Calais seels to have crossed the Channel,

:38:38.:38:42.

with some local councils saxing they won't be able to cope with

:38:43.:38:45.

As the camp is cleared in C`lais on this side of the channel,

:38:46.:38:51.

there are concerns in Kent about the council's ability

:38:52.:38:53.

to support any more young, unaccompanied children.

:38:54.:38:55.

The council leader said resources are already at breaking point.

:38:56.:39:00.

The impact of carrying some 140 young, unaccompanied minors

:39:01.:39:02.

Not just on KCC's services, but on health services,

:39:03.:39:09.

I think it's unreasonable for the Home Office to expect

:39:10.:39:16.

Kent County Council and the ratepayers of Kent to go

:39:17.:39:18.

on supporting that number of young people.

:39:19.:39:21.

The national transfer schemd for unaccompanied child migrants

:39:22.:39:23.

was introduced by Government in July to ease the pressure

:39:24.:39:27.

It is estimated that up to 76 councils out of 152 across Dngland

:39:28.:39:32.

Here in the south-east, Brighton and Hove City Council

:39:33.:39:36.

is currently caring for 41 children, including some under

:39:37.:39:38.

East Sussex is looking after 17 children and has

:39:39.:39:43.

West Sussex has 81 children and has also opted into the national scheme.

:39:44.:39:51.

Medway Council is caring for just three children,

:39:52.:39:53.

it has chosen not to take p`rt in the national transfer scheme

:39:54.:39:57.

The Local Government Associ`tion said more needs to be done to help

:39:58.:39:59.

fund the cost to councils and to encourage local

:40:00.:40:02.

The Home Secretary was pressed on the scheme in the Commons.

:40:03.:40:06.

We are fortunate that sufficient local authorities have come

:40:07.:40:08.

We will still need more over the next few weeks.

:40:09.:40:14.

So, if any members of Parli`ment would like to volunteer thehr local

:40:15.:40:19.

authorities or urge them to do so, they would be most welcome.

:40:20.:40:22.

Most authorities are aware of the cost and the rate

:40:23.:40:24.

the Government pays, and I hope they will considdr that

:40:25.:40:27.

adequate compensation in order to volunteer to take the chhldren.

:40:28.:40:29.

So, with local councils alrdady under financial pressures,

:40:30.:40:35.

will others step forward to take in children yet to arrive?

:40:36.:40:37.

Joining us now from Chatham is Alan Jarrett.

:40:38.:40:39.

Alan is the Conservative leader of Medway Council.

:40:40.:40:43.

Alan Jarrett, you are only looking after three unaccompanied asylum

:40:44.:40:45.

seeker children in the Medw`y towns at the moment.

:40:46.:40:47.

You are not signed up to the voluntary

:40:48.:40:49.

Well, we are not actually looking after three,

:40:50.:40:57.

We have actually got 110 of Kent's allocation here in Medway.

:40:58.:41:05.

We have actually got 113 whhch, with the exception of Kent,

:41:06.:41:08.

is significantly more than `ny of the others on your clip.

:41:09.:41:21.

Yes, but Kent is entirely responsible for funding those

:41:22.:41:23.

children and three was the figure at your authority gave us

:41:24.:41:26.

I'm telling you what the situation is.

:41:27.:41:30.

We have 113 unaccompanied asylum seeker children there

:41:31.:41:32.

in Medway and it's not just a question of cost,

:41:33.:41:34.

What that does is use up our capacity here in Medway,

:41:35.:41:38.

so we have to place our own looked after children outside of Mddway

:41:39.:41:41.

How many children have you had to place outside of Medway

:41:42.:41:45.

As of today, 179 at a cost of anything up to ?1700

:41:46.:41:51.

They have been in various counties and various areas around Medway

:41:52.:42:09.

Wherever we can find placement for them.

:42:10.:42:11.

Kent, we are talking about venturing out of county and, naturallx,

:42:12.:42:16.

they were quoting you, which really isn't that far

:42:17.:42:18.

Some are actually in Kent, outside of Medway.

:42:19.:42:25.

Medway is a unitary, as you would know.

:42:26.:42:30.

It's wherever we can find a location for them.

:42:31.:42:32.

As close as possible, quite obviously.

:42:33.:42:33.

Let's talk about the cost, because this, clearly,

:42:34.:42:35.

has been one of the arguments that you, personally, have

:42:36.:42:38.

made about looking after asylum seeking children.

:42:39.:42:41.

You are only currently funding three.

:42:42.:42:42.

To be clear, you have more but you are funding the care of thrde.

:42:43.:42:46.

What are your concerns about the cost, if you

:42:47.:42:48.

Quite simply, the impact it has on the wider budget.

:42:49.:42:56.

We have 275,000 people here in Medway, we have large

:42:57.:42:58.

numbers of looked after children, over 400.

:42:59.:43:04.

We have the out of area placements that I spoke to you about.

:43:05.:43:10.

In common with all upper tidr authorities, we have

:43:11.:43:12.

You make it sound as though the Government isn't making any

:43:13.:43:17.

contribution to the care of the children.

:43:18.:43:18.

In fact, they have just increased it by 20%.

:43:19.:43:22.

The money that is given to local authorities,

:43:23.:43:24.

like yours, and it does seel striking that you are the only

:43:25.:43:27.

council in the south-east that isn't prepared to take national transfer

:43:28.:43:30.

transfer children and you, by contrast to a council

:43:31.:43:36.

like Brighton and Hove, which is a similar sized

:43:37.:43:39.

at the moment and are taking more and you have three.

:43:40.:43:42.

Talk me through the exact costs that you are worried about.

:43:43.:43:45.

What is the cost of foster care, for instance?

:43:46.:43:47.

Because that one of the big costs, isn't it?

:43:48.:43:49.

Well, it's anything up to ?465 per child in Medway.

:43:50.:43:53.

You have to bear in mind, you use Brighton as a comparison

:43:54.:43:56.

but you have to bear in mind that Brighton receives substanti`lly more

:43:57.:43:59.

than Medway in terms of revenue support grant.

:44:00.:44:01.

The fact that we have lost ?40 million in Government grants.

:44:02.:44:09.

While the Government is offdring a small amount with one hand,

:44:10.:44:12.

it's taking away huge quanthties with the other.

:44:13.:44:14.

Well, you talk about offering a small amount of money.

:44:15.:44:18.

I have done the sums, based on the most expensive foster

:44:19.:44:20.

care package you offer to pdople in the Medway towns,

:44:21.:44:23.

which comes to a total of ?22,600 per year.

:44:24.:44:25.

The Government is offering you ?41,600 per year.

:44:26.:44:33.

Where is the problem here, in terms of the sums?

:44:34.:44:36.

You're not listening to me, are you, Julie?

:44:37.:44:38.

We have 113 unaccompanied asylum seekers here in Medway,

:44:39.:44:48.

you have talked about areas you talked about in your clhp,

:44:49.:44:51.

and that is counties, large counties who are taking

:44:52.:44:53.

It's not entirely cost, its internal capacity within Medway.

:44:54.:44:58.

You were the one who was telling me there was a problem with costs.

:44:59.:45:02.

Let's bring in the guests in the studio, Alan, do stay whth us.

:45:03.:45:10.

Alan Jarrett has a point, he has a limited amount of loney

:45:11.:45:16.

and his chief priority, Caroline Lucas, is to

:45:17.:45:18.

of the Medway towns, includhng looked after children there.

:45:19.:45:23.

So he is telling us he can't, at the moment, take in any

:45:24.:45:26.

Well, I don't know the situ`tion in Medway very well.

:45:27.:45:29.

What I can say is that I agree that we need more finances overall.

:45:30.:45:32.

We do need more finances from Government but,

:45:33.:45:38.

when you compare what Medwax is doing, and that is just with

:45:39.:45:42.

say, the county next door, you've got over 700 looked

:45:43.:45:44.

We need more councils stepping up to the plate.

:45:45.:45:49.

60 years ago, when it was thme of the Second World War,

:45:50.:45:52.

our grandparents, together with the British Government,

:45:53.:45:53.

were responsible for taking 10, 00 children then from the Nazis.

:45:54.:45:56.

They stepped up to the platd because there was a crisis.

:45:57.:45:58.

Although I have sympathy with the issue around the ftnding,

:45:59.:46:12.

we do need to press the Govdrnment around the funding, it seems

:46:13.:46:14.

to me that there has to be more ambition,

:46:15.:46:21.

more courage, really, from councils right across this

:46:22.:46:23.

country to make sure that we are stepping up to the plate

:46:24.:46:26.

to help people who are absolutely desperate right now.

:46:27.:46:29.

Maria Caulfield, within the immigration act that was voted

:46:30.:46:32.

on this year, there is the capacity to make it mandatory.

:46:33.:46:34.

So, people like Alan Jarrett would not be given a choice,

:46:35.:46:37.

he would be forced to take ` number of unaccompanied asylum

:46:38.:46:39.

Should it be made that way, to make it fair, not just

:46:40.:46:55.

for unaccompanied children but also for communities around the country?

:46:56.:46:58.

I think it's something we do need to look at but, if you take may

:46:59.:47:01.

county, for example, East Sussex, a few weeks ago,

:47:02.:47:03.

they didn't have any childrdn and now they are rapidly taking

:47:04.:47:06.

children and their figures are actually a bit like Alan's

:47:07.:47:08.

in that they don't reflect the true number because they are takhng

:47:09.:47:12.

They are taking on a lot more children than the figures stggest.

:47:13.:47:16.

It isn't fair on councils in counties like Kent,

:47:17.:47:18.

It's not fair that Kent takd a quarter of all the childrdn.

:47:19.:47:25.

That's not fair on the county, but it's also not fair

:47:26.:47:27.

on the children because thex need quite a lot of input,

:47:28.:47:30.

in terms of counselling, hotsing, schooling and that needs to be

:47:31.:47:32.

spread out so they get the best welcome possible.

:47:33.:47:35.

You seem to have had a change of heart on the unaccompanidd

:47:36.:47:44.

Back in the spring, in justifying your vote surrounding

:47:45.:47:47.

unaccompanied refugee children being brought to this country

:47:48.:47:49.

from Europe, from Calais and from the rest of Europe,

:47:50.:47:54.

you said, "Although I fully understand the situation in Europe

:47:55.:47:59.

are refugees and that it's far from ideal, it should be relembered

:48:00.:48:02.

Hang on, let me just make the point that, on the template to thd,

:48:03.:48:09.

you tweeted, "Very pleased to be any chamber as David Burrows MP asks

:48:10.:48:12.

the Home Secretary to fast-track child refugees

:48:13.:48:14.

The reason for that is, although I voted against the original Dubs

:48:15.:48:20.

Amendment, that was just about the Calais children.

:48:21.:48:25.

The Dubs Amendment that we finally voted for, which was on the 9th

:48:26.:48:28.

of May this year, included taking children from other camps,

:48:29.:48:30.

I met with Yazidi children who didn't make it to Calais

:48:31.:48:36.

murdered, they were tortured and raped themselves.

:48:37.:48:38.

It should be that we take both, not just children from Calahs.

:48:39.:48:56.

When that was in the Dubs alendment, I was very happy to support it.

:48:57.:49:00.

Let's go back to Alan Jarrett for a moment.

:49:01.:49:03.

You heard Paul Carter in our report that the beginning, Alan Jarrett.

:49:04.:49:06.

He's conservative leader of the local authority

:49:07.:49:08.

They are currently looking `fter 746 unaccompanied asylum

:49:09.:49:11.

You must have conversations with Paul.

:49:12.:49:13.

What does he say to you when he points out that you are not

:49:14.:49:17.

there to take any of those children find yourself?

:49:18.:49:19.

The conversations I have a poor very positive.

:49:20.:49:22.

He understands the situation here in Medway, just as much as we do.

:49:23.:49:34.

You have to bear in mind, when you look at the numbers,

:49:35.:49:37.

113 versus 700, Kent is six times larger than Medway.

:49:38.:49:39.

But they are paying for that as well.

:49:40.:49:41.

Sorry to tell over you, but they are paying for that 11

:49:42.:49:44.

That is right and, because we've got those 113, they are using up

:49:45.:49:48.

our capacity in Medway, which is why we have got 178 out

:49:49.:49:51.

The maths are quite obvious, Julia, aren't they?

:49:52.:49:54.

With the best will in the world we can't do what we can't do.

:49:55.:49:57.

He can't do what he can't do, Caroline.

:49:58.:49:59.

You've been talking about it, particularly the children

:50:00.:50:03.

My point is that while we'rd quibbling hair now, those children

:50:04.:50:06.

are in a desperate situation and I raised it in Parliament just

:50:07.:50:10.

now because we had 40 children last night sleeping under a bridge

:50:11.:50:12.

because there was nowhere else for them to go.

:50:13.:50:14.

We know that when the camps are cleared, many of these

:50:15.:50:17.

They get taken up by traffickers and we don't know

:50:18.:50:20.

This is a real crisis and not the particular financial

:50:21.:50:32.

situation of individual councils, if it is the case that Alan cannot

:50:33.:50:35.

then please be asking the Home Secretary for more help.

:50:36.:50:46.

Ultimately, we have all got to be doing more and I think,

:50:47.:50:49.

certainly, as you say, when you hear a council that

:50:50.:50:51.

has three next door to some that have 746, it has got to be clear

:50:52.:50:56.

that something more has to be done to make it more fair

:50:57.:50:58.

Thank you to Alan Jarrett, thank you very much joining us

:50:59.:51:02.

Now, we all know that agrictlture in the south-east is big business.

:51:03.:51:06.

Nearly ?400 million in 2014, but when we leave the EU,

:51:07.:51:09.

if farming takes a hit, as it currently gets three billion

:51:10.:51:12.

pounds of subsidies, Brexit could mean an end to both.

:51:13.:51:14.

Will we still be able to bux British and preserve the delicate b`lance

:51:15.:51:17.

between farming and nature here in the south-east?

:51:18.:51:19.

Elmlee National Nature Reserve on the Isle of Sheppey

:51:20.:51:25.

is one of England's few surviving wildernesses.

:51:26.:51:32.

Swathes of protected mash l`nd dealing with birds and wildlife

:51:33.:51:36.

Here, conservation and farmhng go hand-in-hand, thanks

:51:37.:51:39.

The only farmers in the UK to run this kind of reserve.

:51:40.:51:43.

It used to be wheat 35 years ago, wall to wall wheat.

:51:44.:51:55.

We changed that from wheat to extensive livestock grazhng.

:51:56.:51:57.

In the referendum, Phil votdd to remain but now he thinks Brexit

:51:58.:52:00.

could be a defining moment for agriculture and the envhronment.

:52:01.:52:02.

I think Brexit is a tremendous opportunity, regardless

:52:03.:52:06.

Let's turn this into a real opportunity to integrate

:52:07.:52:09.

I think it's a once in a lifetime opportunity

:52:10.:52:12.

Farming shapes the landscapd of the south-east.

:52:13.:52:15.

Employing more than 50,000 people and bringing more than ?383 million

:52:16.:52:18.

Critical for food production, it's also linked

:52:19.:52:27.

to nature and farmers receive generous EU subsidies

:52:28.:52:29.

But with a wholesale rethink of farm funding

:52:30.:52:41.

could there be a shift to work large-scale agribushness?

:52:42.:52:46.

What they're going to see, what we will need to see more

:52:47.:52:49.

of is smaller, more mixed f`rms farms that are using a high

:52:50.:52:52.

diversity of crops, mixed rotations, farms that are mixing crops

:52:53.:52:55.

and animals, and all of those things, we have been seen ldss

:52:56.:52:58.

It would be an utter disastdr if, when we go down the free tr`de

:52:59.:53:02.

route, we begin to look at farming subsidies in that context, we finish

:53:03.:53:05.

Nothing would be worse for our environment unfortunately.

:53:06.:53:08.

The Government said it is committed to maintaining current levels

:53:09.:53:10.

With wildlife in steep declhne, it has pledged to restore UK's

:53:11.:53:14.

But with 70% of our environlental laws emanating from the EU,

:53:15.:53:22.

The mood music has not been good around this.

:53:23.:53:25.

When you listen to the Brexht rhetoric about doing away

:53:26.:53:34.

with Brussels "red tape" and you look at how much of that

:53:35.:53:40.

so-called "red tape" is acttally about environmental standards,

:53:41.:53:42.

then we have every good reason to be worried.

:53:43.:53:44.

Away from the farm gate, consumers want fresh,

:53:45.:53:46.

Access to the single market and free movement of labour are front

:53:47.:53:51.

But should food production be more of a priority?

:53:52.:53:56.

We are likely to all be imp`cted by food prices and a varietx

:53:57.:54:05.

There is an essence of, although agriculture and food policy

:54:06.:54:19.

is likely to be left quite late in the discussions, it prob`bly

:54:20.:54:22.

a little bit further forward into the fore.

:54:23.:54:31.

Elmlee feels like worlds aw`y from Westminster and the unwielding

:54:32.:54:34.

Will farming families and precious landscape like this survive

:54:35.:54:37.

without the financial support of Europe and the protection

:54:38.:54:39.

Caroline Lucas, our farmer in the film there, Phil Merrick

:54:40.:54:43.

A once in a lifetime opporttnity, in fact, he said, to integr`te

:54:44.:54:47.

Is there any chance you could share his optimisl?

:54:48.:54:52.

Not overall but I do agree that the common agricultural policy

:54:53.:54:55.

was not a great policy when it came to the environment.

:54:56.:54:57.

And so, it is true that, in theory at least,

:54:58.:55:03.

there is the potential now to be able to get away from some

:55:04.:55:06.

of the industrialised agrictlture that was at the heart of thd common

:55:07.:55:09.

agricultural policy and, in theory, there is a potential

:55:10.:55:11.

to be paying farmers so-called public money for public goods.

:55:12.:55:13.

In other words, paying them for environmental goods

:55:14.:55:15.

I say "in theory" because I agree that, in coming discussions,

:55:16.:55:19.

when it comes to ensuring enough money goes to farmers

:55:20.:55:22.

and that those environmental goods are actually delivered,

:55:23.:55:24.

that could be a real challenge because there are so many other

:55:25.:55:27.

people who want a part of that money as well.

:55:28.:55:37.

Interesting that Andrea Leadsom has said just this week that shd wants

:55:38.:55:40.

to make this the generation that hands over the countryside

:55:41.:55:47.

in a better state to their children than has happened in

:55:48.:55:49.

Rest your voice for a moment, let's go to Maria Caulfield.

:55:50.:55:54.

President of the Wildlife Trust Tony Juniper's point

:55:55.:55:56.

is that he is concerned that we will end up relying less

:55:57.:56:06.

-- more, not less on the production of domestic food and

:56:07.:56:09.

agribusiness and that will lean damage to the rural environlent

:56:10.:56:12.

Do you think your government can prevent that from happening?

:56:13.:56:15.

We do absolutely need to help farmers.

:56:16.:56:17.

I've got a large farming community in my constituencx

:56:18.:56:19.

and they are the gatekeepers of the environment.

:56:20.:56:22.

If we don't have farmers, we don't have farms,

:56:23.:56:24.

What I'm seeing at the moment and why I'm so enthusiastic

:56:25.:56:28.

that we have an opportunity to make life better for farmers

:56:29.:56:33.

is that we see nearly 20 dahry farmers a month leaving the industry

:56:34.:56:36.

In my constituency, I've was farms in Polgate...

:56:37.:56:40.

They are being concreted ovdr. Its developers buying the land, not

:56:41.:56:47.

other farmers. If we do not fix it, we will lose those farmers. But if

:56:48.:56:54.

we go for a hard Brexit, we will be subject to different rules `nd the

:56:55.:56:57.

kind of imports coming in whll be undercutting precisely the kind of

:56:58.:57:01.

food economy that we want to have in this country. I care deeply about

:57:02.:57:05.

our farmers, too. I wanted be able to make a living doing good,

:57:06.:57:08.

sustainable farming, which hs what they want to do. If you produce is

:57:09.:57:13.

coming in from outside the TK, that'll undercut them and it will

:57:14.:57:18.

get worse every go very hard Brexit. Maria, what you be the priority If

:57:19.:57:25.

we can reinvent farming, wh`t is the most important thing? The most

:57:26.:57:30.

important thing is to look the various types of farming and help

:57:31.:57:34.

farmers diversify so they are able to keep their farms Goering. At the

:57:35.:57:41.

moment, if you to farmers about land prices, they have been decilated,

:57:42.:57:44.

either by cheaper imports from places like New Zealand and with the

:57:45.:57:49.

pound when it aside, it was very expensive for them to explore. We

:57:50.:57:53.

need to be able to support farmers when times are tough so thex can

:57:54.:57:58.

keep going. A very quick thought, Caroline Lewis, Google just about

:57:59.:58:05.

the Government funding. Thex have pledged to keep it up for the

:58:06.:58:11.

foreseeable future. Yes, but this is another area of uncertainty that has

:58:12.:58:14.

been caught by Brexit. I fe`r that it is precisely those cheap imports

:58:15.:58:17.

that we talked about that wd will see more of it we get a hard Brexit

:58:18.:58:22.

and that means it'll be harder to maintain environment protection that

:58:23.:58:24.

we want in our countryside `nd that the farmers want as well. Thank you.

:58:25.:58:30.

Kindly other news you may h`ve missed, 60 seconds with Katd Ford. A

:58:31.:58:40.

Sussex clinical commissioning group has installed a special advhser to

:58:41.:58:43.

transport service to perforler. The transport service to perforler. The

:58:44.:58:49.

health Minister Phil Garner on the issue in the Commons. The overseeing

:58:50.:58:59.

of plans in terms of contintity of service will be changed in terms of

:59:00.:59:03.

looking into contract. The chief executive Gatwick Airport s`ys we

:59:04.:59:07.

will look at expanding Gatwhck if the time comes. It follows `

:59:08.:59:11.

Government and Alison to back a third runway at Heathrow. Wd think

:59:12.:59:15.

we put forward a very strong case for Gatwick expansion that was the

:59:16.:59:18.

best case but one thing is that certain, what we will do is maintain

:59:19.:59:22.

our offer to Government bad Gatwick and a very credible scheme. And

:59:23.:59:27.

gambling Minister Tracey Crouch has launched a review into fixed odds

:59:28.:59:31.

betting machines amid concerns that they could than people. The

:59:32.:59:32.

announcement was welcomed bx the announcement was welcomed bx the

:59:33.:59:43.

leader of the Medway Labour group. The Government has had years to

:59:44.:59:46.

decide on airport expansion. We have 50 seconds to talk about it. Maria,

:59:47.:59:54.

was on the right call? Yes, I am pleased we have made the right

:59:55.:59:58.

decision and I think the expansion will be successful. We have not had

:59:59.:00:02.

an expansion since the Second World War at Heathrow and with passenger

:00:03.:00:07.

percentage is increasing by 5% per year, it is a good decision.

:00:08.:00:11.

Caroline, you did not want `ny, did you? No. I did not want any. They

:00:12.:00:17.

should not have been a question of Heathrow or Gatwick, aged the - it

:00:18.:00:23.

should have been a question should be expand anywhere? The ads should

:00:24.:00:25.

have been no. Look at the P`ris have been no. Look at the P`ris

:00:26.:00:29.

climate talks last year. Maria talks about the expansion of aviation but

:00:30.:00:32.

that is because of leisure, not business. Thank you. And th`nk you

:00:33.:00:38.

from battling a very sore throat. Thank you, Caroline Lucas. Thank

:00:39.:00:42.

you, rear Caulfield. We will be back next week. Season.

:00:43.:00:56.

Barely more than a week now until polling day,

:00:57.:01:01.

and a new revelation rocks the US Presidential election campaign.

:01:02.:01:11.

If it wasn't bizarre enough, it just got more bizarre.

:01:12.:01:14.

The FBI have reopened their investigation into Hillary Clinton's

:01:15.:01:16.

use of private email servers whilst she was Secretary

:01:17.:01:18.

of State, after the discovery of further emails.

:01:19.:01:26.

Though not on her laptop or even the State Department.

:01:27.:01:31.

Donald Trump is saying that it's bigger than Watergate -

:01:32.:01:34.

so could it swing the election in his favour?

:01:35.:01:36.

We spoke to top US pollster, Frank Luntz.

:01:37.:01:38.

The FBI investigation is happening so late in the election process

:01:39.:01:42.

that it would be very difficult to derail a Clinton victory.

:01:43.:01:46.

That said, if there is one thing that could keep Hillary Clinton

:01:47.:01:49.

from the presidency, it's an FBI investigation.

:01:50.:01:54.

But there's still only four states that really matter, Florida, Ohio,

:01:55.:01:57.

Right now, Clinton has beyond the margin of error leads

:01:58.:02:02.

This would have to have a truly significant impact for the election

:02:03.:02:09.

There is a point about a week ago when I was prepared to say that

:02:10.:02:16.

Clinton had a 95% chance of winning this election.

:02:17.:02:22.

Based on what has happened in the last 48 hours,

:02:23.:02:28.

It is still very likely, but I wouldn't bet on it.

:02:29.:02:32.

I thought the 2000 election would be the best election of my lifetime,

:02:33.:02:36.

And then I thought 2008 would be amazing, because we had two

:02:37.:02:40.

challenger candidates and the first African-American President.

:02:41.:02:44.

It is ugly, it's painful, it is as negative as anything

:02:45.:02:53.

The public is angry, the country, overall, is frustrated.

:02:54.:02:59.

But for entertainment value, these candidates probably should

:03:00.:03:05.

have charged us money, because it's better than any movie

:03:06.:03:09.

at ever seen, it's better than any TV show.

:03:10.:03:11.

That was Frank Luntz. He may be right or wrong about Mrs Clinton

:03:12.:03:23.

still having an 80% chance of winning. I would bet on an 80%

:03:24.:03:32.

chance? Yes, absolutely. I spoke to a high-profile American pollster and

:03:33.:03:36.

strategist last night and he took a rather different view to Frank

:03:37.:03:41.

Luntz. He thought, and I think some other high-profile commentators

:03:42.:03:44.

agree, that this is actually much more serious than some people

:03:45.:03:49.

realise. There are an awful lot of undecided voters out there looking

:03:50.:03:54.

for an excuse to vote Trump. They do not like what they see in either

:03:55.:03:58.

candidate. But because this FBI probe is not going to conclude

:03:59.:04:03.

before the election, the question, the doubt over Hillary Clinton,

:04:04.:04:08.

gives them an excuse to back Trump. The thing that will play on the

:04:09.:04:13.

minds of the voters is, could the 100 day honeymoon turning to the 100

:04:14.:04:17.

day divorce? Which even be impeached? It may give some people

:04:18.:04:23.

an excuse not to vote for Mrs Clinton. It could provide a problem

:04:24.:04:27.

in terms of energising her base The battle ground almost matters more

:04:28.:04:35.

than the polls. Florida and Pennsylvania have been trending to

:04:36.:04:41.

Mrs Clinton. Mr Trump needs to win both. He does not get in without

:04:42.:04:47.

both. He needs both. Just coming up in the latest BBC News, the

:04:48.:04:52.

Washington Post tracking poll, Mrs Clinton is now only one point ahead

:04:53.:04:58.

in the national poll. One point Even given my caveat that the state

:04:59.:05:03.

battles are most important. That is incredibly close? It is. Polls

:05:04.:05:09.

yesterday showed Trump nationally closing of. -- up. There is a clear

:05:10.:05:17.

trend and movement. This has reinforced everything that people

:05:18.:05:20.

who have a problem with Hillary Clinton know about Hillary Clinton.

:05:21.:05:24.

Trump is running this insurgent campaign. We have seen at here with

:05:25.:05:29.

Brexit. If you are running an insurgent campaign, you want to be

:05:30.:05:33.

against the ultimate establishment insider and that is what Hillary

:05:34.:05:37.

Clinton is. I suggested it was bizarre. Fathoming the behaviour of

:05:38.:05:43.

the FBI is interesting as well. This is a separate investigation into a

:05:44.:05:47.

former congressman, Anthony Wiener, who had done all sorts of things. He

:05:48.:05:52.

seemed to be sex text thing a minor. A 15-year-old girl. The FBI

:05:53.:06:00.

investigate. They get his laptop to see what else he has been too. In

:06:01.:06:07.

the course of that, his wife, now separated, the closest adviser to

:06:08.:06:11.

Hillary Clinton, they find on the laptop e-mails involving the Clinton

:06:12.:06:21.

server to her. And yet the FBI cannot, it needs now a separate

:06:22.:06:27.

warrant to access these e-mails It hasn't got that yet. It has got a

:06:28.:06:30.

warrant to do the congressman e-mails. On the basis of not knowing

:06:31.:06:37.

the content, this has happened. Yeah. Who knows? He is a Republican,

:06:38.:06:45.

this guy. Earlier this year he was being praised to the hilt by

:06:46.:06:49.

Democrats. Absolutely. The timing is a nightmare for her. You described

:06:50.:06:54.

the whole sequence. There is nothing definitive to doubt in this

:06:55.:07:00.

sequence. All he is saying is he has discovered more e-mails in effect.

:07:01.:07:06.

They are from the congressman's former wife. On Anthony Wiener's

:07:07.:07:13.

laptop, which apparently she used sometimes. But what that shows is

:07:14.:07:20.

that for all the scrutiny of modern politicians, they cannot escape

:07:21.:07:25.

caricature. And as Tim was just saying, her weakness is perceived to

:07:26.:07:30.

be secretive, elitism and complacency about that elitism. And

:07:31.:07:34.

so just the announcement of a reopening of the investigation so

:07:35.:07:40.

fuels that caricature, you have just revealed a poll giving her a 1%

:07:41.:07:44.

lead. That must be related to what has happened. It is without a shred

:07:45.:07:49.

of evidence that she has done anything wrong. You can see how

:07:50.:07:55.

because people only see things encourage kids, that is deadly

:07:56.:08:00.

serious. -- in caricature. An American friend of mine said we have

:08:01.:08:05.

got our October surprise but we don't know what it is. The FBI must

:08:06.:08:12.

surely come under massive pressure. It did its -- it did this against

:08:13.:08:19.

the Justice Department. The difficulty the FBI had was that this

:08:20.:08:22.

information, for what it's worth, it came to them. Were they not to have

:08:23.:08:27.

said something and it worked to have come out later, they would have been

:08:28.:08:31.

accused of a massive cover-up. They are dammed if they do, dammed if

:08:32.:08:36.

they don't. There is still time for another surprise. And early November

:08:37.:08:40.

surprise. Who knows if there might still be something that comes out on

:08:41.:08:45.

Donald Trump? This is the first election where I can remember we

:08:46.:08:49.

have had two October surprises already. There are is stuff about

:08:50.:08:54.

tapes knocking around about Donald Trump saying racist things. The

:08:55.:08:59.

Clintons have got a lot of friends. It would be a big surprise if we did

:09:00.:09:02.

not see anything else in the next few days.

:09:03.:09:05.

Just when you think it could not get more interesting, it has. There has

:09:06.:09:11.

been plenty in the papers lately about the Ukip leadership saying

:09:12.:09:12.

unpleasant things about each other. But what about Mr Farage himself?

:09:13.:09:16.

What's he up to? Well, on BBC Two tonight we may

:09:17.:09:18.

find out the answer. Well, I'm led to believe

:09:19.:09:21.

she's very experienced. But I don't think Strictly Come

:09:22.:09:28.

Dancing is for me. That is, unless, of course,

:09:29.:09:30.

you fancy popping a cheeky zero No, I don't think Strictly

:09:31.:09:36.

Come Dancing is for me. Well, you tell Mr Balls he has just

:09:37.:09:40.

lost your programme one viewer. I might have nothing to do these

:09:41.:09:46.

days but, realistically, Well, that wasn't Nigel Farage. It

:09:47.:10:08.

is a BBC comedy on tonight. Nigel Farage gets his life back. A number

:10:09.:10:13.

of runners and riders. Let's come straight down to it. Who would be

:10:14.:10:19.

the next leader of Ukip? Probably Paul Nuttall. He is the favourite.

:10:20.:10:24.

The one who has the backing, not very enthusiastic backing, is Rahim

:10:25.:10:29.

Cassandra. And also Aaron Banks a big donor. The best of a rather weak

:10:30.:10:40.

lot. I think Paul Nuttall should squeak through. I interviewed all

:10:41.:10:51.

three of them this week. Mr Cassandra is a lively character and

:10:52.:10:54.

he knows how to make a few headlines. With a bit of money

:10:55.:10:58.

behind him, anything is possible. This is a guy who has been to the

:10:59.:11:01.

States, who has literally studied what Trump has done. Pees on

:11:02.:11:13.

secondment for the time being. The guy who is his line manager is one

:11:14.:11:20.

of Donald Trump's campaign stop He is extraordinarily right-wing. I am

:11:21.:11:22.

told he kept a picture of Enoch Powell by his bed. Barry Goldwater

:11:23.:11:31.

is one of his heroes, for example. There are other candidates. I would

:11:32.:11:38.

suggest, put out as a hypothesis, Paul Nuttall is Labour's worst

:11:39.:11:44.

nightmare. They are more vulnerable in the North. Paul Nuttall is from

:11:45.:11:49.

Merseyside, a working-class background, performs well on

:11:50.:11:53.

television. He is a really good interviewee. He is one of the best

:11:54.:11:58.

around in politics at the moment. However, I think whoever gets it has

:11:59.:12:02.

a massive task. The clip of this Nigel Farage satire partly shows

:12:03.:12:09.

why. His dominance was overwhelming. He, in many ways, did a brilliant

:12:10.:12:14.

job at keeping the show on the road. The trouble for all new political

:12:15.:12:18.

parties is keeping it going is tough. A very different party, the

:12:19.:12:23.

SDP, with all those glamorous figures in it, lasted eight years,

:12:24.:12:27.

something like that. I think they are in real trouble at the moment

:12:28.:12:30.

because of the implosion we have been seeing in front of our eyes and

:12:31.:12:37.

the ideal -- ideological splits Whoever gets it will face a tough

:12:38.:12:46.

tussle. All three of the main contenders want to put Nigel Farage

:12:47.:12:49.

in the House of Lords. They were falling over themselves to soak up

:12:50.:12:53.

two farads. That is how you win this election.

:12:54.:12:57.

Mr Aaron Banks, who is he putting his money on? He said he supports

:12:58.:13:04.

Rahim. I know Mr Banks is utterly fed with the shenanigans in Ukip. He

:13:05.:13:09.

thinks it is terribly disorganised, dysfunctional and doesn't want a

:13:10.:13:13.

great deal to do with it for the foreseeable future.

:13:14.:13:15.

It is not quite Trump the Clinton but it is interesting. That is it.

:13:16.:13:20.

The Daily Politics is back tomorrow. And all of next week. Jo Coburn will

:13:21.:13:26.

be your next Sunday because I am off to the United States to begin to

:13:27.:13:30.

rehearse presenting the BBC's US election night coverage on the th

:13:31.:13:37.

of November. It will be here on BBC One, BBC

:13:38.:13:38.

world, BBC News Channel and BBC online.

:13:39.:13:40.

Remember if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.

:13:41.:14:11.

A stone stained with blood and beset with a curse.

:14:12.:14:14.

The Moonstone is of inestimable value in India.

:14:15.:14:18.

Its appointed guardians would move heaven and earth to reclaim it

:14:19.:14:22.

Let us not let the past haunt all of our actions.

:14:23.:14:30.

You've got to do something! It's only you that can!

:14:31.:14:31.

He's a scientist, brilliant apparently.

:14:32.:14:32.

But you may be bringing people over here who did things during the war.

:14:33.:14:41.

I will not work for you. I will not work for the British Government

:14:42.:14:47.

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