Browse content similar to 27/11/2016. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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It's Sunday morning and this is the Sunday Politics. | :00:37. | :00:41. | |
Was Fidel Castro a revolutionary hero or a murderous dictator? | :00:42. | :00:45. | |
After the Cuban leader's death, politicians divide over his legacy. | :00:46. | :00:50. | |
Can the NHS in England find billions of pounds' worth of efficiency | :00:51. | :00:54. | |
The Shadow Health Secretary joins me live. | :00:55. | :01:00. | |
Should we have a second Brexit referendum on the terms | :01:01. | :01:02. | |
of the eventual withdrawal deal that's struck with the EU? | :01:03. | :01:07. | |
Former Lib Dem leader Paddy Ashdown and former Conservative cabinet | :01:08. | :01:09. | |
minister Owen Paterson go head-to-head. | :01:10. | :01:13. | |
And is 20,000 enough for families on benefits? | :01:14. | :01:15. | |
We look at the new cap and ask if it matches the cost of living | :01:16. | :01:18. | |
And with me, Tom Newton Dunn, Isabel Oakeshott and Steve Richards. | :01:19. | :01:35. | |
They'll be tweeting throughout the programme | :01:36. | :01:38. | |
Political leaders around the world have been reacting to the news | :01:39. | :01:45. | |
of the death of Fidel Castro, the Cuban revolutionary who came | :01:46. | :01:47. | |
to power in 1959 and ushered in a Marxist revolution. | :01:48. | :01:51. | |
Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson described the former leader | :01:52. | :01:57. | |
as an "historic if controversial figure" and said his death marked | :01:58. | :01:59. | |
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said Castro was "a champion of social | :02:00. | :02:03. | |
justice" who had "seen off a lot of US presidents" | :02:04. | :02:06. | |
President-elect Donald Trump described the former Cuban leader | :02:07. | :02:10. | |
as a "brutal dictator", adding that he hoped his death | :02:11. | :02:14. | |
would begin a new era "in which the wonderful Cuban people | :02:15. | :02:17. | |
finally live in the freedom they so richly deserve". | :02:18. | :02:22. | |
Meanwhile, the President of the European Commission, | :02:23. | :02:23. | |
Jean-Claude Juncker, said the controversial leader | :02:24. | :02:27. | |
was "a hero for many" but "his legacy will be judged | :02:28. | :02:29. | |
I guess we had worked that out ourselves. What do you make of the | :02:30. | :02:44. | |
reactions so far across the political divide? Predictable. And I | :02:45. | :02:49. | |
noticed that Jeremy Corbyn has come in for criticism for his tribute to | :02:50. | :02:56. | |
Castro. But I think it was the right thing for him to do. We all know he | :02:57. | :03:01. | |
was an admirer. He could have sat there for eight hours in his house, | :03:02. | :03:04. | |
agonising over some bland statement which didn't alienate the many | :03:05. | :03:07. | |
people who want to wade into attacked Castro. It would have been | :03:08. | :03:12. | |
inauthentic and would have just added to the sort of mainstream | :03:13. | :03:16. | |
consensus, and I think he was right to say what he believed in this | :03:17. | :03:20. | |
respect. Elsewhere, it has been wholly predictable that there would | :03:21. | :03:26. | |
be this device, because he divided opinion in such an emotive way. | :03:27. | :03:31. | |
Steve, I take your point about authenticity and it might have | :03:32. | :03:34. | |
looked a bit lame for Jeremy Corbyn to pretend that he had no affection | :03:35. | :03:40. | |
for Fidel Castro at all, but do you think he made a bit of an error | :03:41. | :03:45. | |
dismissing Castro's record, the negative side of it as just a floor? | :03:46. | :03:49. | |
He could have acknowledged in more elaborate terms the huge costs. He | :03:50. | :03:56. | |
wanted to go on about the health and education, which if you actually | :03:57. | :03:59. | |
look up the indices on that, they are good relative to other | :04:00. | :04:02. | |
countries. But they have come at such a huge cost. He was not a | :04:03. | :04:09. | |
champion of criminal justice. If he had done that, it would have been | :04:10. | :04:12. | |
utterly inauthentic. He doesn't believe it. And he would have | :04:13. | :04:18. | |
thought there would be many other people focusing on all the epic | :04:19. | :04:22. | |
failings. So he focused on what he believed. There are times when | :04:23. | :04:29. | |
Corbyn's prominence in the media world now as leader widens the | :04:30. | :04:34. | |
debate in an interesting and important way. I am not aware of any | :04:35. | :04:41. | |
criticisms that Mr Corbyn has ever announced about Mr Castro. There | :04:42. | :04:52. | |
were four words in his statement yesterday which is spin doctor would | :04:53. | :04:55. | |
have forced him to say, for all his flaws. He was on this Cuban | :04:56. | :05:05. | |
solidarity committee, which didn't exist to criticise Castro. It | :05:06. | :05:09. | |
existed to help protect Castro from those, particularly the Americans, | :05:10. | :05:13. | |
who were trying to undermine him. And Corbyn made a big deal yesterday | :05:14. | :05:17. | |
saying he has always called out human rights abuses all over the | :05:18. | :05:23. | |
world. But he said that in general, I call out human rights abuses. He | :05:24. | :05:28. | |
never said, I have called out human rights abuses in Cuba. In the weeks | :05:29. | :05:35. | |
ahead, more will come out about what these human rights abuses were. The | :05:36. | :05:42. | |
lid will come off what was actually happening. Some well authenticated | :05:43. | :05:48. | |
stories are pretty horrendous. I was speaking to a journalist who was | :05:49. | :05:55. | |
working there in the 1990s, who gave me vivid examples of that, and there | :05:56. | :06:01. | |
will be more to come. I still go back to, when a major figure diet | :06:02. | :06:06. | |
and you are a leader who has admired but major figure, you have to say | :06:07. | :06:12. | |
it. That is the trap he has fallen into. He has proved every criticism | :06:13. | :06:28. | |
that he is a duck old ideologue. But he is not the only one. Prime | :06:29. | :06:34. | |
Minister Trudeau was so if uses that I wondered if they were going to | :06:35. | :06:41. | |
open up a book of condolences. I think it reinforces Corbyn's failing | :06:42. | :06:45. | |
brand. It may be authentic, but authentic isn't working for him. | :06:46. | :06:49. | |
When I was driving, I heard Trevor Phillips, who is a Blairite, saying | :06:50. | :06:56. | |
the record was mixed and there were a lot of things to admire as well as | :06:57. | :07:01. | |
all the terrible things. So it is quite nuanced. But if you are a | :07:02. | :07:04. | |
leader issuing a sound bite, there is no space for new ones. You either | :07:05. | :07:09. | |
decide to go for the consensus, which is to set up on the whole, it | :07:10. | :07:16. | |
was a brutal dictatorship. Or you say, here is an extraordinary figure | :07:17. | :07:20. | |
worthy of admiration. In my view, he was right to say what he believed. | :07:21. | :07:25. | |
There was still a dilemma for the British government over who they | :07:26. | :07:28. | |
sent to the funeral. Do they sent nobody, do they say and Boris | :07:29. | :07:35. | |
Johnson as a post-ironic statement? There is now a post-Castro Cuba to | :07:36. | :07:43. | |
deal with. Trump was quite diplomatic about post-Castro Cuba. | :07:44. | :07:46. | |
And Boris Johnson's statement was restrained. The thing about Mr | :07:47. | :07:56. | |
Castro was the longevity, 50 years of keeping Marxism on the island. | :07:57. | :07:58. | |
That was what made it so fascinating. | :07:59. | :08:00. | |
Before the last election, George Osborne promised the NHS | :08:01. | :08:04. | |
in England a real-terms funding boost of ?8 billion per year by 2020 | :08:05. | :08:07. | |
on the understanding that NHS bosses would also find ?22 billion worth | :08:08. | :08:10. | |
Since last autumn, NHS managers have been drawing up what they're calling | :08:11. | :08:17. | |
"Sustainability and Transformation Plans" to make these savings, | :08:18. | :08:20. | |
but some of the proposals are already running into local | :08:21. | :08:26. | |
opposition, while Labour say they amount to huge cuts to the NHS. | :08:27. | :08:29. | |
Help is on the way for an elderly person in need in Hertfordshire. | :08:30. | :08:35. | |
But east of England ambulance call operators | :08:36. | :08:39. | |
they're sending an early intervention vehicle | :08:40. | :08:43. | |
with a council-employed occupational therapist on board. | :08:44. | :08:50. | |
It's being piloted here for over 65s with | :08:51. | :08:52. | |
When they arrive, a paramedic judges if the patient can be | :08:53. | :08:58. | |
treated immediately at home without a trip to hospital. | :08:59. | :09:01. | |
Around 80% of patients have been treated this way, | :09:02. | :09:03. | |
taking the strain off urgently-needed hospital beds, | :09:04. | :09:06. | |
So the early intervention team has assessed the patient and decided | :09:07. | :09:12. | |
The key to successful integration for Hertfordshire being able | :09:13. | :09:25. | |
to collaboratively look at how we use our resources, | :09:26. | :09:28. | |
to have pooled budgets, to allow us to understand | :09:29. | :09:30. | |
where spend is, and to let us make conscientious decisions about how | :09:31. | :09:33. | |
best to use that money, to come up with ideas to problems | :09:34. | :09:38. | |
that sit between our organisations, to look at things collaboratively. | :09:39. | :09:40. | |
This Hertfordshire hospital is also a good example of how | :09:41. | :09:42. | |
You won't find an A unit or overnight beds here any more. | :09:43. | :09:50. | |
The closest ones are 20 minutes down the road. | :09:51. | :09:56. | |
What's left is nurse-led care in an NHS-built hospital. | :09:57. | :09:58. | |
Despite a politically toxic change, this reconfiguration went | :09:59. | :10:01. | |
through after broad public and political consultation | :10:02. | :10:03. | |
with hospital clinicians and GPs on board. | :10:04. | :10:07. | |
It's a notable achievement that's surely of interest to 60% of NHS | :10:08. | :10:11. | |
trusts in England that reported a deficit at the end of September. | :10:12. | :10:17. | |
It's not just here that the NHS needs to save money and provide | :10:18. | :10:20. | |
The Government is going to pour in an extra ?8 billion into the NHS | :10:21. | :10:27. | |
in England, but it has demanded ?22 billion | :10:28. | :10:33. | |
worth of efficiencies across the country. | :10:34. | :10:35. | |
In order to deliver that, the NHS has created 44 health | :10:36. | :10:38. | |
and care partnerships, and each one will provide | :10:39. | :10:40. | |
a sustainability and transformation plan, or STP, to integrate care, | :10:41. | :10:45. | |
provide better services and save money. | :10:46. | :10:48. | |
So far, 33 of these 44 regional plans, drawn up by senior people | :10:49. | :10:53. | |
in the health service and local government, | :10:54. | :10:55. | |
The NHS has been through five years of severely constrained spending | :10:56. | :11:02. | |
growth, and there are another 4-5 years on the way at least. | :11:03. | :11:05. | |
STPs themselves are an attempt to deal in a planned way | :11:06. | :11:12. | |
But with plans to close some A units and reduce the number | :11:13. | :11:18. | |
of hospital beds, there's likely to be a tough political battle | :11:19. | :11:23. | |
ahead, with many MPs already up in arms about proposed | :11:24. | :11:27. | |
This Tory backbencher is concerned about the local plans for his | :11:28. | :11:31. | |
I wouldn't call it an efficiency if you are proposing to close | :11:32. | :11:39. | |
all of the beds which are currently provided for those coming out | :11:40. | :11:42. | |
of the acute sector who are elderly and looking | :11:43. | :11:44. | |
That's not a cut, it's not an efficiency saving, | :11:45. | :11:48. | |
All 44 STPs should be published in a month's time, | :11:49. | :11:56. | |
But even before that, they dominated this week's PMQs. | :11:57. | :12:02. | |
The Government's sustainability and transformation plans | :12:03. | :12:04. | |
for the National Health Service hide ?22 billion of cuts. | :12:05. | :12:10. | |
The National Health Service is indeed looking for savings | :12:11. | :12:13. | |
within the NHS, which will be reinvested in the NHS. | :12:14. | :12:17. | |
There will be no escape from angry MPs for the Health Secretary either. | :12:18. | :12:21. | |
Well, I have spoken to the Secretary of State just this week | :12:22. | :12:24. | |
about the importance of community hospitals in general, | :12:25. | :12:29. | |
These are proposals out to consultation. | :12:30. | :12:35. | |
What could happen if these plans get blocked? | :12:36. | :12:40. | |
If STPs cannot be made to work, the planned changes don't come | :12:41. | :12:43. | |
to pass, then the NHS will see over time a sort of unplanned | :12:44. | :12:48. | |
deterioration and services becoming unstable and service | :12:49. | :12:50. | |
The NHS barely featured in this week's Autumn Statement | :12:51. | :12:57. | |
but the Prime Minister insisted beforehand that STPs | :12:58. | :13:04. | |
are in the interests of local people. | :13:05. | :13:05. | |
Her Government's support will now be critical for NHS England | :13:06. | :13:08. | |
to push through these controversial regional plans, | :13:09. | :13:09. | |
which will soon face public scrutiny. | :13:10. | :13:16. | |
We did ask the Department of Health for an interview, | :13:17. | :13:21. | |
I've been joined by the Shadow Health Secretary, | :13:22. | :13:24. | |
Do you accept that the NHS is capable of making ?22 billion of | :13:25. | :13:42. | |
efficiency savings? Well, we are very sceptical, as are number of | :13:43. | :13:45. | |
independent organisations about the ability of the NHS to find 22 | :13:46. | :13:50. | |
billion of efficiencies without that affecting front line care. When you | :13:51. | :13:54. | |
drill down into the 22 billion, based on the information we have | :13:55. | :13:57. | |
been given, and there hasn't been much information, we can see that | :13:58. | :14:01. | |
some of it will come from cutting the budget which go to community | :14:02. | :14:05. | |
pharmacies, which could lead, according to ministers, to 3000 | :14:06. | :14:09. | |
pharmacies closing, which we believe will increase demands on A and | :14:10. | :14:13. | |
GPs, and also that a lot of these changes which are being proposed, | :14:14. | :14:18. | |
which was the focus of the package, we think will mean service cuts at a | :14:19. | :14:25. | |
local level. Do they? The chief executive of NHS England says these | :14:26. | :14:31. | |
efficiency plans are "Incredibly important". He used to work from | :14:32. | :14:35. | |
Labour. The independent King's Fund calls them "The best hope to improve | :14:36. | :14:42. | |
health and care services. There is no plan B". On the sustainable | :14:43. | :14:48. | |
transformation plans, which will be across England to link up physical | :14:49. | :14:52. | |
health, mental health and social care, for those services to | :14:53. | :14:56. | |
collaborate more closely together and move beyond the fragmented | :14:57. | :14:59. | |
system we have at the moment is important. It seems that the ground | :15:00. | :15:05. | |
has shifted. It has moved into filling financial gaps. As we know, | :15:06. | :15:09. | |
the NHS is going through the biggest financial squeeze in its history. By | :15:10. | :15:14. | |
2018, per head spending on the NHS will be falling. If you want to | :15:15. | :15:18. | |
redesign services for the long term in a local area, you need to put the | :15:19. | :15:24. | |
money in. So of course, getting these services working better | :15:25. | :15:26. | |
together and having a greater strategic oversight, which we would | :15:27. | :15:30. | |
have had if we had not got rid of strategic health authority is in the | :15:31. | :15:35. | |
last Parliament. But this is not an attempt to save 22 billion, this is | :15:36. | :15:41. | |
an attempt to spend 22 billion more successfully, don't you accept that? | :15:42. | :15:47. | |
Simon Stevens said we need 8 billion, and we need to find 22 | :15:48. | :15:54. | |
billion of savings. You have to spend 22 billion more efficiently. | :15:55. | :16:00. | |
But the Government have not given that 8 billion to the NHS which they | :16:01. | :16:04. | |
said they would. They said they would do it by 2020. But they have | :16:05. | :16:10. | |
changed the definitions of spending so NHS England will get 8 billion by | :16:11. | :16:15. | |
2020, but they have cut the public health budgets by about 4 million by | :16:16. | :16:21. | |
20 20. The budget that going to initiatives to tackle sexually | :16:22. | :16:25. | |
transmitted diseases, to tackle smoking have been cut back but the | :16:26. | :16:30. | |
commissioning of things like school nurses and health visitors have been | :16:31. | :16:34. | |
cut back as well. Simon Stevens said he can only deliver that five-year | :16:35. | :16:39. | |
project if there is a radical upgrade in public health, which the | :16:40. | :16:42. | |
Government have failed on, and if we deal with social care, and this week | :16:43. | :16:48. | |
there was an... I understand that, but if you don't think the | :16:49. | :16:55. | |
efficiency drive can free up 22 billion to take us to 30 billion by | :16:56. | :17:00. | |
2020, where would you get the money from? I have been in this post now | :17:01. | :17:04. | |
for five or six weeks and I want to have a big consultation with | :17:05. | :17:08. | |
everybody who works in the health sector, as well as patients, carers | :17:09. | :17:13. | |
and families. Though you don't know? I think it would be surprised if I | :17:14. | :17:20. | |
had an arbitrary figure this soon into the job. Your party said they | :17:21. | :17:27. | |
expected election of spring by this year, you need to have some idea by | :17:28. | :17:31. | |
now, you inherited a portfolio from Diane Abbott, did she have no idea? | :17:32. | :17:36. | |
To govern is to make choices and we would make different choices. The | :17:37. | :17:41. | |
budget last year scored billions of giveaways in things like | :17:42. | :17:48. | |
co-operating -- corporation tax. What I do want to do... Is work on a | :17:49. | :17:59. | |
plan and the general election, whenever it comes, next year or in | :18:00. | :18:05. | |
2020 or in between, to have costed plan for the NHS. But your party is | :18:06. | :18:09. | |
committed to balancing the books on current spending, that is currently | :18:10. | :18:15. | |
John McDonnell, the Shadow Chancellor's position. What we are | :18:16. | :18:20. | |
talking about, this extra 30 billion, that is essentially current | :18:21. | :18:25. | |
spending so if it doesn't come from efficiency savings, where does the | :18:26. | :18:28. | |
money come from? Some of it is also capital. Mainly current spending. If | :18:29. | :18:36. | |
you look at the details of the OBR, they have switched a million from | :18:37. | :18:47. | |
the capital into revenue. Why -- how do you balance spending? | :18:48. | :18:51. | |
That is why we need to have a debate. Every time we ask for | :18:52. | :18:59. | |
Labour's policy, we are always told me a debate. Surely it is time to | :19:00. | :19:04. | |
give some idea of what you stand for? There's huge doubts about the | :19:05. | :19:07. | |
Government 's policy on this. You are the opposition, how would you do | :19:08. | :19:12. | |
it? I want to work with John McDonnell to find a package to give | :19:13. | :19:17. | |
the NHS the money it needs, but of course our Shadow Chancellor, like | :19:18. | :19:20. | |
any Shadow Chancellor at this stage in the cycle, will want to see what | :19:21. | :19:24. | |
the books look like a head of an election before making commitments. | :19:25. | :19:30. | |
I am clear that the Labour Party has to go into the next general election | :19:31. | :19:33. | |
with a clear policy to give the NHS the funding it needs because it has | :19:34. | :19:36. | |
been going through the largest financial squeeze in its history. | :19:37. | :19:41. | |
You say Labour will always give the NHS the money it needs, that is not | :19:42. | :19:46. | |
a policy, it is a blank cheque. It is an indication of our commitment | :19:47. | :19:51. | |
to the NHS. Under this Conservative government, the NHS has been getting | :19:52. | :19:56. | |
a 1% increase. Throughout its history it has usually have about | :19:57. | :20:01. | |
4%. Under the last Labour government it was getting 4%, before that | :20:02. | :20:05. | |
substantially more. We think the NHS should get more but I don't have | :20:06. | :20:09. | |
access to the NHS books in front of me. The public thinks there needs to | :20:10. | :20:18. | |
be more money spent on health but they also think that should go cap | :20:19. | :20:22. | |
in hand with the money being more efficiently spent, which is what | :20:23. | :20:28. | |
this efficiency drive is designed to release 22 billion. Do you have an | :20:29. | :20:33. | |
efficiency drive if it is not the Government's one? Of course we | :20:34. | :20:38. | |
agree. We agree the NHS should be more efficient, we want to see | :20:39. | :20:43. | |
productivity increased. Do know how to do that? One way is through | :20:44. | :20:50. | |
investments, maintenance, but there is a 5 million maintenance backlog. | :20:51. | :20:57. | |
One of the most high risk backlogs is something like 730 million. They | :20:58. | :21:04. | |
are going to switch the capital spend into revenue spend. I believe | :21:05. | :21:07. | |
that when you invest in maintenance and capital in the NHS, that | :21:08. | :21:11. | |
contribute to increasing its productivity. You are now talking | :21:12. | :21:15. | |
about 5 billion the maintenance, the chief executive says it needs 30 | :21:16. | :21:21. | |
billion more by 2020 as a minimum so that 35 billion. You want to spend | :21:22. | :21:28. | |
more on social care, another for 5 billion on that so we have proper | :21:29. | :21:32. | |
care in the community. By that calculation I'm up to about 40 | :21:33. | :21:36. | |
billion, which is fine, except where do you get the and balance the | :21:37. | :21:41. | |
account at the same time? We will have to come up with a plan for that | :21:42. | :21:45. | |
and that's why I will work with our Shadow Treasury team to come up with | :21:46. | :21:48. | |
that plan when they head into the general election. At the moment we | :21:49. | :21:53. | |
are saying to the NHS, sorry, we are not going to give you the | :21:54. | :21:56. | |
investment, which is why we are seeing patient care deteriorating. | :21:57. | :22:04. | |
The staff are doing incredible things but 180,000 are waiting in | :22:05. | :22:10. | |
A beyond four hours, record levels of people delayed in beds in | :22:11. | :22:13. | |
hospitals because there are not the beds in the community to go to save | :22:14. | :22:18. | |
the NHS needs the investment. We know that and we know the | :22:19. | :22:21. | |
Government's response to that and many think it is inadequate. What | :22:22. | :22:25. | |
I'm trying to get from you is what your response would be and what your | :22:26. | :22:29. | |
reaction will be to these efficiency plans. Your colleague Heidi | :22:30. | :22:34. | |
Alexander, she had your job earlier this year, she warned of the danger | :22:35. | :22:40. | |
of knee jerk blanket opposition to local efficiency plans. Do you agree | :22:41. | :22:47. | |
with that? Yes. So every time a hospital is going to close as a | :22:48. | :22:53. | |
result of this, and some will, it is Labour default position not just | :22:54. | :22:57. | |
going to be we are against it? That is why we are going to judge each of | :22:58. | :23:01. | |
these sustainability plans by a number of yardsticks. We want to see | :23:02. | :23:06. | |
if they have the support of local clinicians, we want to see if they | :23:07. | :23:09. | |
have the support of local authorities because they now have a | :23:10. | :23:12. | |
role in the delivery of health care. We want to see if they make the | :23:13. | :23:16. | |
right decisions for the long-term trends in population for local area. | :23:17. | :23:21. | |
We want to see if they integrate social care and health. If they | :23:22. | :23:24. | |
don't and therefore you will not bank that as an efficiency saving, | :23:25. | :23:30. | |
you will say no, that's not the way to go, you are left then with | :23:31. | :23:34. | |
finding the alternative funding to keep the NHS going. If you are | :23:35. | :23:40. | |
cutting beds, for example the proposal is to cut something like | :23:41. | :23:46. | |
5000 beds in Derbyshire and if there is the space in the community sector | :23:47. | :23:50. | |
in Derbyshire, that will cause big problems for the NHS in the long | :23:51. | :23:54. | |
term so it is a false economy. An example like that, we would be very | :23:55. | :23:59. | |
sceptical the plans could work. Would it not be honest, given the | :24:00. | :24:03. | |
sums of money involved and your doubts about the efficiency plan, | :24:04. | :24:08. | |
which are shared by many people, to just say, look, among the wealthy | :24:09. | :24:14. | |
nations, we spend a lower proportion of our GDP on health than most of | :24:15. | :24:19. | |
the other countries, European countries included, we need to put | :24:20. | :24:25. | |
up tax if we want a proper NHS. Wouldn't that be honest? I'm not the | :24:26. | :24:30. | |
Shadow Chancellor, I don't make taxation policy. You are tempting me | :24:31. | :24:36. | |
down a particular road by you or I smile. John McDonnell will come up | :24:37. | :24:40. | |
with our taxation policy. We have had an ambition to meet the European | :24:41. | :24:44. | |
average, the way these things are measured have changed since then, | :24:45. | :24:47. | |
but we did have that ambition and for a few years we met it. We need | :24:48. | :24:54. | |
substantial investment in the NHS. Everyone accepts it was | :24:55. | :24:56. | |
extraordinary that there wasn't an extra penny for the NHS in the | :24:57. | :25:01. | |
Autumn Statement this week. And as we go into the general election, | :25:02. | :25:06. | |
whenever it is, we will have a plan for the NHS. Come back and speak to | :25:07. | :25:10. | |
us when you know what you are going to do. Thank you. | :25:11. | :25:12. | |
Theresa May has promised to trigger formal Brexit negotiations | :25:13. | :25:15. | |
before the end of March, but the Prime Minister must wait | :25:16. | :25:17. | |
for the Supreme Court to decide whether parliament must vote | :25:18. | :25:20. | |
If that is the Supreme Court's conclusion, the Liberal Democrats | :25:21. | :25:23. | |
and others in parliament have said they'll demand a second EU | :25:24. | :25:26. | |
referendum on the terms of the eventual Brexit deal before | :25:27. | :25:28. | |
And last week, two former Prime Ministers suggested | :25:29. | :25:32. | |
that the referendum result could be reversed. | :25:33. | :25:35. | |
In an interview with the New Statesman on Thursday, | :25:36. | :25:38. | |
Tony Blair said, "It can be stopped if the British people decide that, | :25:39. | :25:41. | |
having seen what it means, the pain-gain cost-benefit analysis | :25:42. | :25:43. | |
John Major also weighed in, telling a meeting | :25:44. | :25:50. | |
of the National Liberal Club that the terms of Brexit | :25:51. | :25:52. | |
were being dictated by the "tyranny of the majority". | :25:53. | :25:54. | |
He also said there is a "perfectly credible case" | :25:55. | :25:57. | |
That prompted the former Conservative leader | :25:58. | :26:01. | |
Iain Duncan Smith to criticise John Major. | :26:02. | :26:04. | |
He told the BBC, "The idea we delay everything simply | :26:05. | :26:06. | |
because they disagree with the original result does | :26:07. | :26:09. | |
seem to me an absolute dismissal of democracy." | :26:10. | :26:14. | |
So, is there a realistic chance of a second referendum on the terms | :26:15. | :26:17. | |
of whatever Brexit deal Theresa May manages to secure? | :26:18. | :26:21. | |
Lib Dem party leader Tim Farron has said, "We want to respect | :26:22. | :26:25. | |
the will of the people and that means they must have their say | :26:26. | :26:28. | |
in a referendum on the terms of the deal." | :26:29. | :26:32. | |
But the Lib Dems have just eight MPs - they'll need Labour support | :26:33. | :26:35. | |
One ally is former Labour leadership candidate Owen Smith. | :26:36. | :26:40. | |
He backs the idea of a second referendum. | :26:41. | :26:44. | |
But yesterday the party's deputy leader, Tom Watson, said that, | :26:45. | :26:47. | |
"Unlike the Lib Dem Brexit Deniers, we believe in respecting | :26:48. | :26:49. | |
To discuss whether or not there should be a second referendum | :26:50. | :26:57. | |
on the terms of the Brexit deal, I've been joined by two | :26:58. | :27:00. | |
In Somerset is the former Lib Dem leader Paddy Ashdown, | :27:01. | :27:04. | |
and in Shropshire is the former Conservative cabinet minister | :27:05. | :27:06. | |
Paddy Ashdown, let me come to you first. When the British people have | :27:07. | :27:18. | |
spoken, you do what they command, either you believe in democracy or | :27:19. | :27:23. | |
you don't. When democracy speaks, we obey. Your words on the night of the | :27:24. | :27:30. | |
referendum, what's changed? Nothing has changed, Andrew, that's what I | :27:31. | :27:34. | |
said and what I still believe in. The British people have spoken, we | :27:35. | :27:38. | |
will not block Parliament debating the Brexit decision, Article 50, but | :27:39. | :27:44. | |
we will introduce an amendment to say that we need to consult the | :27:45. | :27:51. | |
British people, not about if we go out but what destination we would | :27:52. | :27:58. | |
then achieve. There is a vast difference in ordinary people's | :27:59. | :28:02. | |
lives between the so-called hard Brexit and soft Brexit. Soft Brexit, | :28:03. | :28:07. | |
you remain in the single market, you have to accept and agree on | :28:08. | :28:11. | |
immigration. Hard Brexit you are out of the single market, we have many | :28:12. | :28:19. | |
fewer jobs... Why didn't you say before the referendum there would be | :28:20. | :28:25. | |
a second referendum on the terms? Forgive me, I said it on many | :28:26. | :28:29. | |
occasions, you may not have covered it, Andrew, but that's a different | :28:30. | :28:34. | |
thing. In every speech I gave I said this, and this has proved to be | :28:35. | :28:39. | |
true, since those who recommended Brexit refused to tell us the | :28:40. | :28:42. | |
destination they were recommending, they refuse to give any detail about | :28:43. | :28:47. | |
the destination, if we did vote to go out, it would probably be | :28:48. | :28:51. | |
appropriate to decide which destination, hard Brexit or soft | :28:52. | :28:56. | |
Brexit we go to. They deliberately obscure that because it made it more | :28:57. | :29:00. | |
difficult to argue the case. It wasn't part of the official campaign | :29:01. | :29:06. | |
but let me come to Owen Paterson. What's wrong with a referendum on | :29:07. | :29:11. | |
the terms of the deal? We voted to leave but we don't really know on | :29:12. | :29:14. | |
what conditions we leave so what's wrong with negotiating the deal and | :29:15. | :29:17. | |
putting that deal to the British people? This would be a ridiculous | :29:18. | :29:26. | |
idea, it would be a complete gift to the EU negotiators to go for an | :29:27. | :29:30. | |
impossibly difficult deal because they want to do everything to make | :29:31. | :29:34. | |
sure that Brexit does not go through. This nonsense idea of hard | :29:35. | :29:39. | |
Brexit and soft Brexit, it was never discussed during the referendum | :29:40. | :29:43. | |
campaign. We made it clear we wanted to take back control, that means | :29:44. | :29:49. | |
making our own laws, raising and spending the money agreed by elected | :29:50. | :29:53. | |
politicians, getting control of our own borders back, and getting | :29:54. | :29:57. | |
control of our ability to do trade deals around the world. That was | :29:58. | :30:00. | |
clear at all stages of the referendum. We got 17.4 million | :30:01. | :30:06. | |
votes, the biggest vote in history for any issue, that 52%, 10% more | :30:07. | :30:12. | |
than John Major got and he was happy with his record number of 14 | :30:13. | :30:17. | |
million, more than Tony Blair got, which was 43%, so we have a very | :30:18. | :30:21. | |
clear mandate. Time and again people come up to me and say when are we | :30:22. | :30:25. | |
going to get on with this. The big problem is uncertainty. We want to | :30:26. | :30:29. | |
trigger Article 50, have the negotiation and get to a better | :30:30. | :30:31. | |
place. OK, I need to get a debate going. | :30:32. | :30:41. | |
Paddy Ashdown, the EU doesn't want us to leave. If they knew there was | :30:42. | :30:45. | |
going to be a second referendum, surely there was going to be a | :30:46. | :30:47. | |
second referendum, surely their incentive would be to give us the | :30:48. | :30:50. | |
worst possible deal would vote against it would put us in a | :30:51. | :30:55. | |
ridiculous negotiating position. On the contrary, the government could | :30:56. | :30:59. | |
go and negotiate with the European Union and anyway, the opinion of the | :31:00. | :31:02. | |
European Union is less important than the opinion of the British | :31:03. | :31:06. | |
people. It seems to me that Owen Paterson made the case for me | :31:07. | :31:11. | |
precisely. They refuse to discuss what kind of destination. Britain | :31:12. | :31:17. | |
voted for departure, but not a destination. Because Owen Paterson | :31:18. | :31:19. | |
and his colleagues refused to discuss what their model was. So the | :31:20. | :31:25. | |
range of options here and the impact on the people of Britain is huge. | :31:26. | :31:28. | |
There is nothing to stop the government going to negotiate, | :31:29. | :31:32. | |
getting the best deal it can and go into the British people and saying, | :31:33. | :31:37. | |
this is the deal, guys, do you agree? Owen Paterson? It is simple. | :31:38. | :31:44. | |
The British people voted to leave. We voted to take back control of our | :31:45. | :31:51. | |
laws, our money, our borders. But most people don't know the shape of | :31:52. | :31:54. | |
what the deal would be. So why not have a vote on it? Because it would | :31:55. | :32:02. | |
be a gift to the EU negotiators to drive the worst possible deal in the | :32:03. | :32:07. | |
hope that it might be chucked out with a second referendum. The | :32:08. | :32:10. | |
biggest danger is the uncertainty. We have the biggest vote in British | :32:11. | :32:17. | |
history. You have said all that. It was your side that originally | :32:18. | :32:21. | |
proposed a second referendum. The director of Leave said, there is a | :32:22. | :32:26. | |
strong democratic case for a referendum on what the deal looks | :32:27. | :32:32. | |
like. Your side. Come on, you are digging up a blog from June of 2015. | :32:33. | :32:43. | |
He said he had not come to a conclusion. He said it is a distinct | :32:44. | :32:51. | |
possibility. No senior members of the campaign said we would have a | :32:52. | :32:56. | |
second referendum. It is worth chucking Paddy the quote he gave on | :32:57. | :33:00. | |
ITV news, whether it is a majority of 1% or 20%, when the British | :33:01. | :33:04. | |
people have spoken, you do what they command. People come up to me and | :33:05. | :33:10. | |
keep asking, when are you going to get on with it? What do you say to | :33:11. | :33:20. | |
that, Paddy Ashdown? Owen Paterson has obviously not been paying | :33:21. | :33:23. | |
attention. You ask me that question at the start. Owen and his kind have | :33:24. | :33:33. | |
to stick to the same argument. During the referendum, when we said | :33:34. | :33:37. | |
that the Europeans have it in their interest to picket tough for us, | :33:38. | :33:43. | |
they would suffer as well. And that has proved to be right. The European | :33:44. | :33:47. | |
Union does not wish to hand as a bad deal, because they may suffer in the | :33:48. | :33:52. | |
process. We need the best deal for both sides. I can't understand why | :33:53. | :34:04. | |
Owen is now reversing that argument. Here is the question I am going to | :34:05. | :34:08. | |
ask you. If we have a second referendum on the deal and we vote | :34:09. | :34:17. | |
by a very small amount, by a sliver, to stay in, can we then make it | :34:18. | :34:28. | |
best-of-3? No, Andrew! Vince Cable says he thinks if you won, he would | :34:29. | :34:33. | |
have to have a decider. You will have to put that income tax, because | :34:34. | :34:37. | |
I don't remember when he said that. -- you have to put that in context. | :34:38. | :34:46. | |
Independent, 19th of September. That is a decision on the outcome. The | :34:47. | :34:52. | |
central point is that the British people voted for departure, not a | :34:53. | :34:56. | |
destination. In response to the claim that this is undemocratic, if | :34:57. | :35:01. | |
it is democratic to have one referendum, how can it be | :35:02. | :35:07. | |
undemocratic to have two? Owen Paterson, the British government, on | :35:08. | :35:10. | |
the brink of triggering article 50, cannot tell us if we will remain | :35:11. | :35:14. | |
members of the single market, if we will remain members of the customs | :35:15. | :35:20. | |
union. From that flows our ability to make trade deals, our attitude | :35:21. | :35:25. | |
towards freedom of movement and the rest of it. Given that the | :35:26. | :35:27. | |
government can't tell us, it is clear that the British people have | :35:28. | :35:31. | |
no idea what the eventual shape will be. That is surely the fundamental | :35:32. | :35:37. | |
case for a second referendum. Emphatically not. They have given a | :35:38. | :35:44. | |
clear vote. That vote was to take back control. What the establishment | :35:45. | :35:51. | |
figures like Paddy should recognise is the shattering damage it would do | :35:52. | :35:54. | |
to the integrity of the whole political process if this was not | :35:55. | :36:01. | |
delivered. People come up to me, as I have said for the third time now, | :36:02. | :36:04. | |
wanting to know when we will get article 50 triggered. Both people | :36:05. | :36:10. | |
who have voted to Remain and to Leave. If we do not deliver this, it | :36:11. | :36:14. | |
will be disastrous for the reputation and integrity of the | :36:15. | :36:18. | |
whole political establishment. Let me put that you Paddy Ashdown. It is | :36:19. | :36:27. | |
very Brussels elite - were ask your question but if we don't like the | :36:28. | :36:30. | |
answer, we will keep asking the question. Did it with the Irish and | :36:31. | :36:39. | |
French. It is... It would really anger the British people, would it | :36:40. | :36:45. | |
not? That is an interesting question, Andrew. I don't think it | :36:46. | :36:50. | |
would. All the evidence I see in public meetings I attended, and I | :36:51. | :36:53. | |
think it is beginning to show in the opinion polls, although there hasn't | :36:54. | :36:56. | |
been a proper one on this yet, I suspect there is a majority in | :36:57. | :37:00. | |
Britain who would wish to see a second referendum on the outcome. | :37:01. | :37:03. | |
They take the same view as I do. What began with an open democratic | :37:04. | :37:08. | |
process cannot end with a government stitch up. Contrary to what Owen | :37:09. | :37:12. | |
suggests, there is public support for this. And far from damaging the | :37:13. | :37:19. | |
government and the political class, it showed that we are prepared to | :37:20. | :37:24. | |
listen. We shall see. Paddy Ashdown, have you eaten your hat yet? Andrew, | :37:25. | :37:33. | |
as you well know, I have eaten five hats. You cannot have a second | :37:34. | :37:38. | |
referendum until you eat your hat on my programme. We will leave it | :37:39. | :37:41. | |
there. Paddy Ashdown and Owen Paterson, thank you much. I have | :37:42. | :37:48. | |
eaten a hat on your programme. I don't remember! | :37:49. | :37:51. | |
It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics. | :37:52. | :37:53. | |
We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now | :37:54. | :38:04. | |
Hello, I'm Julia George, and this is the Sunday Politics | :38:05. | :38:07. | |
Coming up later, the living on hand-outs. | :38:08. | :38:14. | |
The maximum amount of benefit money families can receive drops | :38:15. | :38:16. | |
considerably this month and we will consider the consequences. | :38:17. | :38:18. | |
Joining me in the studio today to talk about that | :38:19. | :38:22. | |
and other issues, the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, | :38:23. | :38:25. | |
Damian Green, he is also the Conservative | :38:26. | :38:26. | |
And alongside Damian is the Labour leader | :38:27. | :38:29. | |
of the Hastings Borough Council, Peter Chowney. | :38:30. | :38:31. | |
Sometimes, it is what the Chancellor doesn't say that is most | :38:32. | :38:35. | |
This week, in his first Autumn Statement, Philip Hammond | :38:36. | :38:39. | |
confirmed ?50 million per year for grammar schools, | :38:40. | :38:43. | |
but there was no news for the fair funding formula for schools | :38:44. | :38:46. | |
which were such a bone of contention in the South East. | :38:47. | :38:49. | |
So what does this tell us about the Government | :38:50. | :38:54. | |
The Government's education reforms has raised the standards | :38:55. | :38:58. | |
and expanded opportunity with 1.4 million more children. | :38:59. | :39:00. | |
Children now in good or outstanding schools. | :39:01. | :39:04. | |
And the new capital funding that I provided today for grammar schools | :39:05. | :39:07. | |
How can a Government seriously talk about supporting a 21st-century | :39:08. | :39:13. | |
economy when they are planning to put tens of millions | :39:14. | :39:15. | |
into the failed 20th-century policy of grammar schools? | :39:16. | :39:21. | |
Segregating our children at an early age. | :39:22. | :39:26. | |
Your Government, Damian Green, talks about a country that | :39:27. | :39:37. | |
About people who are just about managing, | :39:38. | :39:40. | |
about social mobility, and then the only education | :39:41. | :39:42. | |
funding that is mentioned in the Autumn Statement | :39:43. | :39:44. | |
is ?50 million for one type of school on the, | :39:45. | :39:46. | |
Well, because that is one of the elements of the much wider | :39:47. | :39:51. | |
plan, which is working to improve education for everyone. | :39:52. | :39:54. | |
We've got nearly 1.5 million children more in good | :39:55. | :39:58. | |
or outstanding schools than where in 2010. | :39:59. | :40:01. | |
Part of the next phase - only part of the next phase, | :40:02. | :40:04. | |
an important part of the next phase - is to allow grammar schools | :40:05. | :40:07. | |
to expand, grammar schools in many cases provide an excellent education | :40:08. | :40:09. | |
for children from all backgrounds. | :40:10. | :40:11. | |
But expanding grammar schools wasn't in your last manifesto. | :40:12. | :40:18. | |
And schools like Tanbridge and Forest School in Horsham Have | :40:19. | :40:22. | |
35or 36 children in a class that is designed for 30. | :40:23. | :40:25. | |
I wonder how those parents feel about those ?50 million only | :40:26. | :40:27. | |
Well, we have said that we are dealing | :40:28. | :40:30. | |
As you say, the announcement wasn't in the Autumn Statement, | :40:31. | :40:37. | |
but you wouldn't particularly expect it in the Autumn Statement. | :40:38. | :40:39. | |
I think some of your colleagues who are in West Sussex may well have | :40:40. | :40:43. | |
appreciated some transition funding on this. | :40:44. | :40:44. | |
And they are finding it difficult to support your wider issue, | :40:45. | :40:49. | |
and Tim Loughton said in a Westminster debate this month, | :40:50. | :40:52. | |
it is very hard for constituency MPs to support the Government's | :40:53. | :40:57. | |
programme on such things as grammar schools which will divert funds | :40:58. | :40:59. | |
when we need those funds now to plug the gaps in all schools of whatever | :41:00. | :41:03. | |
Those are your own Conservative colleagues saying things like that. | :41:04. | :41:12. | |
That is one of my colleagues, but I know that across Kent | :41:13. | :41:15. | |
there is widespread support for grammar schools | :41:16. | :41:17. | |
And also we see the whole education system in action. | :41:18. | :41:20. | |
So underfunding in West Sussex isn't a problem for you? | :41:21. | :41:23. | |
I mean, everyone wants a new funding formula and the Government | :41:24. | :41:26. | |
is committed to producing a new funding formula | :41:27. | :41:27. | |
because the existing formula has lasted for too long. | :41:28. | :41:30. | |
And yet, there is ?15 million for grammar schools, | :41:31. | :41:36. | |
which take a very small proportion of the most disadvantaged children. | :41:37. | :41:38. | |
That doesn't look like a Government that is generally | :41:39. | :41:43. | |
I don't think this is either grammar schools or something else. | :41:44. | :41:52. | |
The whole funding formula is a much bigger issue than ?50 million. | :41:53. | :41:54. | |
Because that involves restructuring the school budgets | :41:55. | :41:56. | |
The point is being made by many counties in the South East | :41:57. | :42:00. | |
as well as a particularly rural counties in other parts | :42:01. | :42:02. | |
of the country that the current funding formula doesn't | :42:03. | :42:05. | |
And that is why the Government is committed to changing it. | :42:06. | :42:10. | |
I don't think it is one of the other, we want both. | :42:11. | :42:12. | |
Disadvantaged children do get a real boost in grammar schools | :42:13. | :42:17. | |
and that is one of the reasons Theresa May is so keen on them. | :42:18. | :42:20. | |
They nearly catch up with privileged children. | :42:21. | :42:28. | |
Some other schools in Hastings have among the worst GCSE | :42:29. | :42:30. | |
I bet there in Hastings that would love a grammar school? | :42:31. | :42:34. | |
I'm certainly not a fan of grammar schools myself. | :42:35. | :42:37. | |
We don't have them in Hastings, don't have in East Sussex at all. | :42:38. | :42:49. | |
I think segregating children at the age of 11... | :42:50. | :42:52. | |
It's all very well saying grammar schools do well and perform well, | :42:53. | :42:54. | |
but it's all the other children that don't get into the grammar school | :42:55. | :43:04. | |
I think that are not getting good deal out of it. | :43:05. | :43:07. | |
And also, when you compare the results of grammar schools | :43:08. | :43:09. | |
would say the top 20% of children, students in a good comprehensive, | :43:10. | :43:12. | |
grammar schools really don't do as well. | :43:13. | :43:14. | |
I just don't think it's a good solution. | :43:15. | :43:16. | |
Staying with money and education, lots of children miss out, don't | :43:17. | :43:20. | |
We're going to come onto welfare in just a moment. | :43:21. | :43:24. | |
They miss out on free school meals, and as a result they miss out | :43:25. | :43:28. | |
on ?1000 per pupil on pupil premium money. | :43:29. | :43:30. | |
There is an amendment to the Digital economy Bill that is being voted | :43:31. | :43:33. | |
It allows for children eligible for free school meals to be | :43:34. | :43:37. | |
I haven't looked at that amendment yet. | :43:38. | :43:40. | |
Clearly, if someone is entitled to free school meals, | :43:41. | :43:45. | |
It would seem strange that they wouldn't take that up. | :43:46. | :43:49. | |
But that funding, that ?1000 can make such a difference | :43:50. | :43:51. | |
So therefore, that is an incentive for the school to act on it. | :43:52. | :43:55. | |
But at the moment, they have to rely on parents, some of whom feel | :43:56. | :43:58. | |
stigmatised in applying for free school meals. | :43:59. | :44:00. | |
Wouldn't you want people to have the money | :44:01. | :44:04. | |
I'm not conscious of people being stigmatised for being | :44:05. | :44:08. | |
That feels like a very old-fashioned concept. | :44:09. | :44:11. | |
So why do so many people fail to claim it? | :44:12. | :44:13. | |
The pupil premium that was introduced by the coalition | :44:14. | :44:15. | |
Government has been widely welcomed, both by parents | :44:16. | :44:17. | |
It does enable disadvantaged pupils to get an excellent education. | :44:18. | :44:23. | |
If you believe in it, wouldn't you make it easier | :44:24. | :44:25. | |
for families who are entitled to it, and schools who are | :44:26. | :44:28. | |
I think there are various ways you can achieve that. | :44:29. | :44:39. | |
A lot of it is precisely if there is stigma, | :44:40. | :44:42. | |
which I rather doubt, then clearly take that away. | :44:43. | :44:44. | |
And because there is such an incentive on the schools to get | :44:45. | :44:47. | |
the pupil premium money, I would have thought schools | :44:48. | :44:49. | |
would be encouraging families to do this. | :44:50. | :44:50. | |
You'll have the chance to vote and we'll find out how you did | :44:51. | :44:54. | |
There is a big change coming to some families who receive benefits, | :44:55. | :45:00. | |
in particular those who are not in work. | :45:01. | :45:02. | |
The Government has put a limit on how much any household can claim. | :45:03. | :45:05. | |
This month, the maximum amount is being reduced. | :45:06. | :45:07. | |
Campaigners and local authorities are expressing | :45:08. | :45:09. | |
their concerns about what it could mean in practice. | :45:10. | :45:14. | |
Is this the queue for the food bank? | :45:15. | :45:16. | |
This is a scene from Ken Loach's film, I, daniel Blake. | :45:17. | :45:28. | |
Which has put the benefit system and how it affects people's | :45:29. | :45:31. | |
So we've got one adult and two children? | :45:32. | :45:40. | |
It's a fictional account of a visit to a food bank. | :45:41. | :45:47. | |
But for Chris Bargrave, such a visit is an everyday reality. | :45:48. | :45:50. | |
With four children, Chris and his family already struggle | :45:51. | :45:52. | |
And under the new lower benefits cap introduced earlier this month, | :45:53. | :46:00. | |
they have lost ?77 per week and are falling into rent arrears. | :46:01. | :46:05. | |
The Government says the policy encourages people to find a job. | :46:06. | :46:07. | |
That is something Chris says he just can't do. | :46:08. | :46:10. | |
But because it's not the higher rate lupus, | :46:11. | :46:15. | |
And the wife has lupus, which is a lung disease. | :46:16. | :46:35. | |
The benefits cap was introduced in 2013 and limits how much money | :46:36. | :46:38. | |
any household can receive in certain benefits. | :46:39. | :46:40. | |
Until this month, the maximum was ?26,000 per year. | :46:41. | :46:42. | |
That is just under ?385 per week for couples | :46:43. | :46:46. | |
This food bank in Ramsgate, run out of the back of a charity shop, | :46:47. | :46:53. | |
was set up by Kerry Keating four years ago. | :46:54. | :46:55. | |
It gives out around 50 food parcels per week. | :46:56. | :46:58. | |
She says the number of people needing the charity lies help | :46:59. | :47:05. | |
increased after first cap came into force. | :47:06. | :47:09. | |
And expects to see a similar rise under the new lower limit. | :47:10. | :47:12. | |
The job opportunities are not out there. | :47:13. | :47:13. | |
This is what we need, job opportunities that are there. | :47:14. | :47:19. | |
The prospects to be there before they place these | :47:20. | :47:21. | |
They are not going to see such a huge cost in trying | :47:22. | :47:26. | |
to fix all the problems where they are setting people | :47:27. | :47:28. | |
I continuously say the Government keep setting up the most | :47:29. | :47:38. | |
The risk of homelessness is going to be through the roof. | :47:39. | :47:42. | |
The lowering of the benefits cap may disproportionately affect families | :47:43. | :47:46. | |
That is because the level of the cap is the same | :47:47. | :47:50. | |
Social and affordable rents in this part of the world tend to be higher. | :47:51. | :47:55. | |
So someone living in the South East could pay between ?20 | :47:56. | :47:58. | |
and ?50 more per week than someone in the north-east. | :47:59. | :48:01. | |
Under the old cap, nearly 800 households in the South East | :48:02. | :48:03. | |
were affected, according to the most recent figures. | :48:04. | :48:08. | |
Nearly 5000 households are expected to be affected by the new lower cap, | :48:09. | :48:11. | |
In Brighton and Hove, the number of households affected | :48:12. | :48:21. | |
The council leader says that will place even more financial | :48:22. | :48:27. | |
pressure on already stretched local authority budgets. | :48:28. | :48:30. | |
Lowering the benefits cap is going to mean even more | :48:31. | :48:32. | |
These are the people just about managing that the | :48:33. | :48:36. | |
That it seems to be doing more to harm than to help. | :48:37. | :48:56. | |
We will spend millions more on helping people that have been cut | :48:57. | :48:59. | |
Having the support pulled out from under them. | :49:00. | :49:01. | |
The Government says discretionary housing payments will be provided | :49:02. | :49:04. | |
to councils to enable them to help those people affected | :49:05. | :49:06. | |
by the changes, and that the policy is fair. | :49:07. | :49:08. | |
The level of the new benefits cap, they say, is close | :49:09. | :49:11. | |
Joining us now is Imran Hussain from the Child | :49:12. | :49:14. | |
It seems obvious that the 20,000 benefits cap will bite hardest | :49:15. | :49:19. | |
that being for most of us are biggest outgoing. | :49:20. | :49:21. | |
It bites hard in London, but obviously the cap has been | :49:22. | :49:31. | |
lowered their not as far as other parts of the country. | :49:32. | :49:34. | |
As we all know, house prices, rental prices | :49:35. | :49:38. | |
We will pick up with Peter Chowney in a little while. | :49:39. | :49:42. | |
He has four kids and another on the way. | :49:43. | :49:47. | |
Is the typical of the people most affected in the sense | :49:48. | :49:51. | |
Actually, so far we have seen the benefit cap was meant to be | :49:52. | :49:56. | |
a policy which is about getting people who can't work - | :49:57. | :49:59. | |
Only 14% of people are in that position at the moment. | :50:00. | :50:07. | |
Only 14% of people on the benefits cap are on jobseeker's allowance. | :50:08. | :50:16. | |
Most people on the benefits cap are lone parents | :50:17. | :50:18. | |
It is difficult for them to move into work. | :50:19. | :50:21. | |
And also people who are on illness or disability benefits. | :50:22. | :50:25. | |
Again, it is difficult for them to move into work and the | :50:26. | :50:28. | |
It is difficult for those families. | :50:29. | :50:31. | |
To take someone like Chris, someone watching might wonder | :50:32. | :50:38. | |
inevitably, why is someone struggling on benefits | :50:39. | :50:39. | |
Don't we have to all take a little bit of | :50:40. | :50:44. | |
In Chris' position, he has a number of children and we as a society | :50:45. | :50:58. | |
have a obligation to look after the children. | :50:59. | :51:00. | |
We are not saying those children should be punished because we don't | :51:01. | :51:03. | |
There seems to be pretty robust public support of the benefits cap. | :51:04. | :51:09. | |
You aren't going back to 2013, but there was a poll | :51:10. | :51:11. | |
for the Department for Work and Pensions, Damian's department, | :51:12. | :51:14. | |
73% of people supported the benefits cap. | :51:15. | :51:16. | |
That is pretty conclusive in terms of public conviction on this? | :51:17. | :51:22. | |
Because it has been sold as a policy to stop people raking | :51:23. | :51:27. | |
Whereas the reality is, we are talking about families | :51:28. | :51:33. | |
who are very far away from the labour market. | :51:34. | :51:41. | |
Who find it very difficult to find work. | :51:42. | :51:43. | |
They are being penalised, that is the reality of it. | :51:44. | :51:48. | |
I think the public would also be, I hope, persuaded if they knew more | :51:49. | :51:52. | |
about the fallout of what is actually happening to the families. | :51:53. | :51:56. | |
Also we are seeing in terms of the food banks and local | :51:57. | :51:59. | |
authorities having to pick up the pieces. | :52:00. | :52:00. | |
The damage, the fallout for the benefits cap is massive. | :52:01. | :52:03. | |
We heard Warren Morgan saying the fallout in Brighton | :52:04. | :52:05. | |
And yet the new cap hasn't kicked in. | :52:06. | :52:08. | |
Damian Green, it seems that families and therefore | :52:09. | :52:10. | |
Is that what supporting people who are just | :52:11. | :52:13. | |
First of all, the principal, the widely supported principal | :52:14. | :52:22. | |
of the benefits cap, is that the system has to be fair | :52:23. | :52:27. | |
to those who are in receipt of benefits and also far to those | :52:28. | :52:30. | |
who pay the benefits, in other words taxpayers. | :52:31. | :52:32. | |
The facts are that, of the people who were affected by the benefits | :52:33. | :52:38. | |
cap at its higher level, 23,500 of those are now in work. | :52:39. | :52:42. | |
It does work to encourage people to get back into work. | :52:43. | :52:46. | |
This is the best for them and their families. | :52:47. | :52:48. | |
In the South East, more specifically, 30%, nearly one third | :52:49. | :52:54. | |
of the people affected by the benefits cap | :52:55. | :52:57. | |
in the South East have got into work. | :52:58. | :52:59. | |
People in control of their own lives. | :53:00. | :53:03. | |
Let's take a single mum who has a 12-month-old baby. | :53:04. | :53:12. | |
And unless she works, she is hit by the cap. | :53:13. | :53:14. | |
But there is no free childcare and even then, until her child | :53:15. | :53:17. | |
is two years old, it is only for 38 weeks of the year. | :53:18. | :53:20. | |
We are providing more free childcare. | :53:21. | :53:22. | |
But not until your child is two years old. | :53:23. | :53:26. | |
And the cap doesn't bite, in the South East, you would have | :53:27. | :53:29. | |
To get the equivalent of the ?20,000 in benefits | :53:30. | :53:35. | |
Many people will be watching this programme thinking, | :53:36. | :53:39. | |
that is a reasonable amount of money. | :53:40. | :53:43. | |
There are plenty of people working very had earning | :53:44. | :53:51. | |
That is the relevant figure it seems to me to try | :53:52. | :53:58. | |
Peter, have you seen any impact in your town? | :53:59. | :54:01. | |
We heard Warren Morgan saying they are expecting more, | :54:02. | :54:03. | |
not just on the town but on the council as well. | :54:04. | :54:06. | |
So far, the benefits cap hasn't had a huge impact. | :54:07. | :54:11. | |
Going down to 20,000 will make a difference. | :54:12. | :54:14. | |
Certainly in the poorer parts of town. | :54:15. | :54:16. | |
We have extremes of deprivation in Hastings. | :54:17. | :54:19. | |
The poorest neighbourhood in Hastings is the 11th most | :54:20. | :54:21. | |
That is right here in the heart of the supposedly | :54:22. | :54:30. | |
You have really big long-term problems. | :54:31. | :54:33. | |
People with intergenerational unemployment. | :54:34. | :54:34. | |
Mental health problems, lack of skills, lack of education. | :54:35. | :54:38. | |
It makes it hard for people to get into work, even where they are | :54:39. | :54:41. | |
That is precisely why, as was mentioned in the feature, | :54:42. | :54:47. | |
we provided ?1 billion of discretionary housing payments | :54:48. | :54:49. | |
Absolutely, we get the point about potential homelessness. | :54:50. | :55:01. | |
That is why we give a lot of money from central Government and local | :55:02. | :55:05. | |
government precisely to keep people in their homes. | :55:06. | :55:07. | |
That is why we produced a Green Paper on work and have | :55:08. | :55:10. | |
There is ?1 billion of discretionary payments. | :55:11. | :55:15. | |
There is some help to local authorities in terms | :55:16. | :55:28. | |
of discretionary housing payments, but every local council it | :55:29. | :55:30. | |
will go to, every charity, will say that is not enough. | :55:31. | :55:33. | |
A majority of local councils don't take up 100% | :55:34. | :55:35. | |
of their discretionary housing payments. | :55:36. | :55:36. | |
So it is not true that local authorities are overwhelmed. | :55:37. | :55:38. | |
Most of them don't take up all the money. | :55:39. | :55:49. | |
Let's pick up on austerity and who it hits. | :55:50. | :55:51. | |
You mention fairness quite a lot yourself, Damian. | :55:52. | :55:58. | |
It has been hitting families more than pensioners. | :55:59. | :56:00. | |
There is speculation, and it was mentioned | :56:01. | :56:02. | |
in the Autumn Statement, that pensions triple lock. | :56:03. | :56:04. | |
It guarantees for people, a quick reminder, it guarantees | :56:05. | :56:06. | |
that it goes up every year, the state pension. | :56:07. | :56:08. | |
The hire of inflation, the increase of average earnings of 2.5%. | :56:09. | :56:11. | |
Your predecessor, Iain Duncan Smith, the former pensions Minister, | :56:12. | :56:13. | |
Ros Altmann, both call for the triple lock to be ditched. | :56:14. | :56:16. | |
It is the manifesto commitment and we stick | :56:17. | :56:20. | |
Each of the lock will last for this Parliament. | :56:21. | :56:26. | |
All policies are looked at in every Parliament. | :56:27. | :56:28. | |
It is too early to start writing our next manifesto. | :56:29. | :56:31. | |
Hold on, instinctively, you have talked about | :56:32. | :56:32. | |
Welfare policy is not something you can just that instinct on. | :56:33. | :56:43. | |
I would make the point that one of the great achievements, | :56:44. | :56:49. | |
and that is not a partisan point, it is an achievement | :56:50. | :56:53. | |
in what has happened in social policy in the last 30 years, | :56:54. | :56:56. | |
has been a massive reduction in pension and poverty. | :56:57. | :56:58. | |
In the 1980s, 40% of pensioners in this country within poverty. | :56:59. | :57:01. | |
I don't want to put that in jeopardy. | :57:02. | :57:04. | |
But Peter, Labour is in a muddle on this one. | :57:05. | :57:07. | |
The Shadow Chancellor, John McDonnell, said | :57:08. | :57:08. | |
this week he would be disappointed if it was scrapped. | :57:09. | :57:11. | |
Frank Field, Work and Pensions Committee chair, | :57:12. | :57:12. | |
says it is time for it to be shelved. | :57:13. | :57:15. | |
I think it should be retained for the foreseeable future. | :57:16. | :57:20. | |
Whether into the long distant future, you need that | :57:21. | :57:22. | |
system or another system, all policies have to be reviewed. | :57:23. | :57:25. | |
At the moment, I think it is that triple lock | :57:26. | :57:27. | |
that has got people, pensioners, out of poverty, | :57:28. | :57:29. | |
and that started way back with the Labour Government. | :57:30. | :57:35. | |
It would be a pity if it was ditched. | :57:36. | :57:39. | |
Gentlemen, grammar school boys all, thank you very much indeed. | :57:40. | :57:42. | |
Some of the news you may have missed. | :57:43. | :57:53. | |
The University of Brighton is trying to find a way to continue running | :57:54. | :57:57. | |
There were demonstrations by students and lecturers | :57:58. | :58:10. | |
when it was announced that the campus would close. | :58:11. | :58:12. | |
Managers say there are not enough sugar to sustain | :58:13. | :58:15. | |
A top by a controversial journalist at a school | :58:16. | :58:18. | |
Simon Langton Grammar School For Boys Where contacted | :58:19. | :58:21. | |
by the Department for Education's counter extremism units. | :58:22. | :58:24. | |
Milo Yiannopoulos is known for his extreme views on race, | :58:25. | :58:26. | |
Some pupils were disappointed that they were denied | :58:27. | :58:32. | |
For too long, you have been able to shut down opposing | :58:33. | :58:36. | |
The politics of people you don't like by saying I am offended. | :58:37. | :58:40. | |
And people who falsely wear military medals to claim that they are war | :58:41. | :58:43. | |
heroes could face prison under a new private members bill. | :58:44. | :58:45. | |
It was put forward by Dartford MP Gareth Johnson and was debated | :58:46. | :58:48. | |
I think people need confidence that when they see people wearing medals | :58:49. | :58:52. | |
at remembrance services wherever, that those medals have been | :58:53. | :58:54. | |
Peter Chowney, let's pick up on the situation with Hastings | :58:55. | :59:01. | |
Is there hope for people who want to see higher | :59:02. | :59:05. | |
We were disappointed with University of Brighton's decision. | :59:06. | :59:17. | |
I think they didn't put enough effort into making that campus work. | :59:18. | :59:22. | |
It is could be a good university town. | :59:23. | :59:23. | |
We determine it should stay one and will be | :59:24. | :59:26. | |
We heard from, in our reports, students on the news saying | :59:27. | :59:29. | |
they didn't want to pay ?9,000 per year to be put | :59:30. | :59:32. | |
They feel demeaned by going back into an FE college. | :59:33. | :59:35. | |
The University Centre that is being proposed | :59:36. | :59:40. | |
We do need a proper university in Hastings. | :59:41. | :59:45. | |
Sussex University may be a solution, but they say it is not something | :59:46. | :59:49. | |
Do you think you could twist the arm? | :59:50. | :59:52. | |
The chair of the governors expressed in the chamber of commerce | :59:53. | :59:58. | |
Certainly not officially, we have not had discussions with him, | :59:59. | :00:08. | |
Very quick thought on Milo Yiannopoulos and the school. | :00:09. | :00:12. | |
Damian Green, you know how bright and robust the children | :00:13. | :00:14. | |
They wanted the opportunity to challenge him. | :00:15. | :00:17. | |
As an understand, it wasn't closed down by the Department | :00:18. | :00:21. | |
for Education, it was a decision in the end by the school. | :00:22. | :00:24. | |
He is clearly, he loves being an irritant. | :00:25. | :00:26. | |
The Government isn't aware that he was going to in some | :00:27. | :00:34. | |
way radicalise children or that there was a risk | :00:35. | :00:36. | |
I think they may have been worries about demonstrations or so on. | :00:37. | :00:40. | |
I agree, I've been to the school a couple of times, | :00:41. | :00:42. | |
It is in some ways a shame that he didn't have to face them. | :00:43. | :00:48. | |
Damian Green and Peter Chowney - Natalie is back next week. | :00:49. | :00:57. | |
have got to make sure London is open. Thank you. Andrew, back to | :00:58. | :01:01. | |
you. Is Theresa May serious | :01:02. | :01:07. | |
about curbing executive pay? Who will be crowned Nigel Farage's | :01:08. | :01:09. | |
successor as Ukip leader? And can the Lib Dems pull off | :01:10. | :01:12. | |
a by-election upset in Richmond? So,,, on pay talk about the | :01:13. | :01:40. | |
executive of what executives get compared to the average worker in | :01:41. | :01:43. | |
the company, giving shareholders real power to vote down pay rises if | :01:44. | :01:48. | |
they don't like them, which is pretty much what Ed Miliband | :01:49. | :01:50. | |
proposed in the general election in 2015. Is she serious about this? She | :01:51. | :02:00. | |
is very serious, and the Tory party probably does owe Ed Miliband an | :02:01. | :02:03. | |
apology for trashing his ideas and 2015 and then putting them all up | :02:04. | :02:08. | |
for votes in November 20 16. She is very serious, and this all comes | :02:09. | :02:11. | |
back to her desperate fear that unless capitalism reforms itself and | :02:12. | :02:14. | |
becomes more acceptable to the just about managing or even 78% of the | :02:15. | :02:21. | |
country who are not earning vast wealth at anywhere near the figures | :02:22. | :02:24. | |
you see in the City, serious things will happen and the political sense | :02:25. | :02:31. | |
of trust will implode. She has already been bartered down by her | :02:32. | :02:34. | |
own Cabinet on this. She wanted to go further and make workers on the | :02:35. | :02:37. | |
board mandatory. They have managed to stop that. What will her fallback | :02:38. | :02:44. | |
position be on workers on the board if she is not able to get it into | :02:45. | :02:52. | |
some claw? We would like to have workers on the board, but whatever | :02:53. | :02:56. | |
they do on the board there will have no voting powers on the board. When | :02:57. | :03:00. | |
you look at what was leaked out over the weekend, that we should know the | :03:01. | :03:05. | |
ratio of the top to the average and that shareholders who own the | :03:06. | :03:10. | |
company should determine, in the end, the highest-paid salaries, you | :03:11. | :03:17. | |
kind of think, what could the possible objection be to any of | :03:18. | :03:23. | |
that? Two things. One, I agree with Tom that she is deadly serious about | :03:24. | :03:27. | |
this agenda and it comes under the banner, that sentence in the party | :03:28. | :03:31. | |
conference speech about "It's time to focus on the good that government | :03:32. | :03:36. | |
can do". She is by instinct more of an interventionist than Cameron and | :03:37. | :03:41. | |
Osborne. But she is incredibly cautious, whether it is through the | :03:42. | :03:43. | |
internal constraints of opposition within Cabinet, or her own small C | :03:44. | :03:51. | |
Conservative caution in implementing this stuff. Part of the problem is | :03:52. | :03:55. | |
the practicalities. George Osborne commission will Hutton to do a | :03:56. | :03:59. | |
report which came out with similar proposals, which were never | :04:00. | :04:02. | |
implemented. It is quite hard to enforce. It will antagonise business | :04:03. | :04:08. | |
leaders when she's to woo them again in this Brexit furore. So there are | :04:09. | :04:12. | |
problems with it. And judging by what has happened so far, my guess | :04:13. | :04:17. | |
is that the aim will be genuinely bold and interesting, and the | :04:18. | :04:20. | |
implementation incredibly cautious. Does it matter if she annoys some | :04:21. | :04:26. | |
business leaders? Isn't that part of her brand? Will there be problems on | :04:27. | :04:31. | |
the Tory backbenches with it? I think there will be and I think it | :04:32. | :04:35. | |
does matter at this sensitive time for when we are positioning | :04:36. | :04:37. | |
ourselves as a country and whether we are going to brand ourselves as a | :04:38. | :04:42. | |
great city of business, implementing quite interventionist policies. Any | :04:43. | :04:45. | |
suggestion that the government can control how much the top earners | :04:46. | :04:50. | |
get, I think would be received in a hostile way. What would be wrong | :04:51. | :04:54. | |
with the shareholders, who own the company, determining the pay of the | :04:55. | :04:59. | |
higher hands, the executives? Morally, you can absolutely make | :05:00. | :05:02. | |
that argument but to business leaders, they will not like it. | :05:03. | :05:07. | |
Ultimately, this will not come down to more than a row of beans. There | :05:08. | :05:10. | |
was a huge debate about whether there should be quotas of women on | :05:11. | :05:14. | |
boards. In the end, that never happened. All we get is figures. But | :05:15. | :05:20. | |
quotas of women, for which there is a case and a case against too, that | :05:21. | :05:27. | |
was a government mandate. This is not, this is simply empowering | :05:28. | :05:29. | |
shareholders who own the company to determine the pay of the people they | :05:30. | :05:37. | |
hire. There is a strong moral argument for it. Strong economic | :05:38. | :05:41. | |
argument. But the Tory backbenchers will not like this. The downside is | :05:42. | :05:46. | |
that this is a world where companies are thinking about upping sticks to | :05:47. | :05:51. | |
Europe. No, they say they are thinking of that. Not one has done | :05:52. | :05:56. | |
it yet. Others have made massive investments in this country. But is | :05:57. | :06:01. | |
it not an incentive for those making these threats to actually do it? In | :06:02. | :06:07. | |
Europe, bankers' pay is now mandated by Brussels. It is a vivid way of | :06:08. | :06:12. | |
showing you are addressing the issue of inequality. I think she will go | :06:13. | :06:22. | |
with it, but let's move on to Ukip. I think we will get the result | :06:23. | :06:26. | |
tomorrow. There are the top three candidates. Paul Nuttall, Suzanne | :06:27. | :06:33. | |
Evans and on my right, John Reid Evans. One of them will be the next | :06:34. | :06:37. | |
leader. Who is going to win? It is widely predicted to be Paul Nuttall | :06:38. | :06:42. | |
and is probably the outcome that the Labour Party fears most. Paul | :06:43. | :06:46. | |
Nuttall is a very effective communicator. He is not a household | :06:47. | :06:51. | |
name, far from it, but people will begin to learn more about him and | :06:52. | :06:56. | |
find that he is actually quite a strong leader. Can people Ukip | :06:57. | :07:01. | |
together again after this shambolic period since the referendum? If | :07:02. | :07:09. | |
anyone can, he can. And his brand of working collar, Northern Ukip is the | :07:10. | :07:14. | |
thing that will work for them. Do you think he is the favourite? It | :07:15. | :07:19. | |
would be amazing if he doesn't win. His greatest problem will be getting | :07:20. | :07:23. | |
Nigel Farage off his back. He is going on a speaking tour of North | :07:24. | :07:30. | |
America. A long speaking tour. Ukip won this EU referendum. They had the | :07:31. | :07:34. | |
chance to hoover up these discontented Labour voters in the | :07:35. | :07:39. | |
north, and all he has done is associated with Ukip with Farage. | :07:40. | :07:43. | |
But Nigel Farage is fed up of Ukip and will be glad to be hands of it. | :07:44. | :07:49. | |
The bigger problem is money. If it is Paul Nuttall, and we don't know | :07:50. | :07:54. | |
the results yet, but he is the favourite, if it is him, I would | :07:55. | :07:57. | |
suggest that that is the result Labour is frightened of most. To be | :07:58. | :08:01. | |
honest, I think they are frightened of Ukip whatever the result. | :08:02. | :08:06. | |
Possibly with good cause. The reason I qualify that is that what you call | :08:07. | :08:12. | |
a shambles over the summer has been something that goes beyond Monty | :08:13. | :08:16. | |
Python in its absurdity and madness. That calls into question whether it | :08:17. | :08:21. | |
can function as a political party when you have what has gone on. The | :08:22. | :08:26. | |
number of leaders itself has been an act of madness. In a context which | :08:27. | :08:34. | |
should be fantastic for them. They have won a referendum. There is a | :08:35. | :08:38. | |
debate about what form Brexit should take, it is a dream for them, and | :08:39. | :08:41. | |
they have gone bonkers. If he can turn it around, I agree that he is a | :08:42. | :08:45. | |
powerful media communicator, and then it is a threat to Labour. But | :08:46. | :08:50. | |
he has got to show that first. Indeed. The by-election in Richmond | :08:51. | :08:54. | |
in south-west London, called by Zac Goldsmith over Heathrow. Has it | :08:55. | :09:00. | |
turned out to be a by-election about Heathrow, or has it turned into a | :09:01. | :09:03. | |
by-election, which is what the Lib Dems wanted, about Brexit? We will | :09:04. | :09:09. | |
know on Thursday. If the Lib Dems win, they will turn it into an EU | :09:10. | :09:13. | |
referendum. It seems incredibly close now. The Lib Dems are swamping | :09:14. | :09:18. | |
Richmond. They had 1000 activists there yesterday. That is getting on | :09:19. | :09:22. | |
for 100th of the population of the place! If the Lib Dems don't manage | :09:23. | :09:27. | |
to win on Thursday and don't manage to turn it into an EU referendum | :09:28. | :09:30. | |
despite all their efforts, it will probably be a disaster for the | :09:31. | :09:38. | |
party. What do you hear, Isabel? I hear that the Lib Dems have | :09:39. | :09:42. | |
absolutely swamped the constituency, but this may backfire. I saw a bit | :09:43. | :09:46. | |
of this myself, living in Witney, when the Lib Dems also swamped and | :09:47. | :09:51. | |
people began to get fed up of their aggressive tactics. I understand | :09:52. | :09:57. | |
that Zac Goldsmith is cautiously optimistic that he will pull this | :09:58. | :10:04. | |
one off. Quick stab at the result? I don't know. But we are entering a | :10:05. | :10:12. | |
period when by-elections are acquiring significant again. If the | :10:13. | :10:15. | |
Lib Dems were to make a game, it would breathe life into that near | :10:16. | :10:21. | |
moribund party like nothing else. Similarly, other by-elections in | :10:22. | :10:25. | |
this shapeless political world we are in are going to become | :10:26. | :10:29. | |
significant. We don't know if we are covering it live on Thursday night | :10:30. | :10:32. | |
yet because we have to find at the time they are going to declare. | :10:33. | :10:38. | |
Richmond are quite late in declaring, but if it is in the early | :10:39. | :10:42. | |
hours, that is fine. If it is on breakfast television, they be not. I | :10:43. | :10:48. | |
want to show you this. Michael Gove was on the Andrew Marr Show this | :10:49. | :10:53. | |
morning. In the now notorious comment that I made, I was actually | :10:54. | :10:56. | |
cut off in midstream, as politicians often. The point I made was not that | :10:57. | :10:58. | |
all experts are that is nonsense. Expert engineers, doctors and | :10:59. | :11:09. | |
physicists are not wrong. But there is a subclass of experts, | :11:10. | :11:12. | |
particularly social scientists, who have to reflect on some of the | :11:13. | :11:17. | |
mistakes they have made. And the recession, which was predicted that | :11:18. | :11:20. | |
we would have if we voted to leave, has gone like a puff of smoke. So | :11:21. | :11:27. | |
economic experts, he talks about. The Chancellor has based all of his | :11:28. | :11:30. | |
forward predictions in this Autumn Statement on the economic expert | :11:31. | :11:38. | |
forecasters. The Office for Budget Responsibility has said it is 50-50, | :11:39. | :11:43. | |
which is the toss of a coin. But what was he supposed to do? You | :11:44. | :11:47. | |
would ideally have to have a Budget that had several sets of scenarios, | :11:48. | :11:53. | |
and that is impossible. Crystal ball territory. But you do wonder if | :11:54. | :12:00. | |
governments are right to do so much of their fiscal projections on the | :12:01. | :12:03. | |
basis of forecasts which turn out to be wrong. They have nothing else to | :12:04. | :12:09. | |
go on. The Treasury forecast is to be wrong. No doubt the OBR forecast | :12:10. | :12:14. | |
will prove not to be exact. As you say, they admitted that they are | :12:15. | :12:17. | |
navigating through fog at the moment. But he also added that it | :12:18. | :12:22. | |
was fog caused by Brexit. So Brexit, even if you accept that these | :12:23. | :12:26. | |
forecasts might be wrong, is causing such a level of uncertainty. He put | :12:27. | :12:33. | |
the figure at 60 billion. That could come to haunt him. He hasn't got a | :12:34. | :12:44. | |
clue. He admitted it. He said, Parliament mandates me to come up | :12:45. | :12:47. | |
with something, so I am going to give you a number. But I wouldn't | :12:48. | :12:51. | |
trust it if I were you, he basically said. I agree with you. The man who | :12:52. | :12:56. | |
borrowed 122 billion more off the back of a coin toss was Philip | :12:57. | :12:59. | |
Hammond. It begs the question, what does that say about the confidence | :13:00. | :13:03. | |
Philip Hammond has in his own government's renegotiation? Not a | :13:04. | :13:10. | |
huge amount. I agree. Philip Hammond quoted the OBR figures. He basically | :13:11. | :13:14. | |
said, this is uncertain and it looks bad, and on we go with it. It is a | :13:15. | :13:19. | |
very interesting situation, he said. He was for Remain and he works in a | :13:20. | :13:24. | |
department which regards it as a disaster, whatever everyone else | :13:25. | :13:29. | |
thinks. I have just been told we are covering the by-election. We are | :13:30. | :13:33. | |
part of the constitution. Jo Coburn will have more | :13:34. | :13:34. | |
Daily Politics tomorrow And I'll be back here on BBC One | :13:35. | :13:36. | |
next Sunday at 11. Remember - if it's Sunday, | :13:37. | :13:40. | |
it's the Sunday Politics. to signify the Africans | :13:41. | :14:14. | |
who were here. | :14:15. | :14:19. |