27/11/2016 Sunday Politics South East


27/11/2016

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It's Sunday morning and this is the Sunday Politics.

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Was Fidel Castro a revolutionary hero or a murderous dictator?

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After the Cuban leader's death, politicians divide over his legacy.

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Can the NHS in England find billions of pounds' worth of efficiency

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The Shadow Health Secretary joins me live.

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Should we have a second Brexit referendum on the terms

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of the eventual withdrawal deal that's struck with the EU?

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Former Lib Dem leader Paddy Ashdown and former Conservative cabinet

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minister Owen Paterson go head-to-head.

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And is 20,000 enough for families on benefits?

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We look at the new cap and ask if it matches the cost of living

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And with me, Tom Newton Dunn, Isabel Oakeshott and Steve Richards.

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They'll be tweeting throughout the programme

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Political leaders around the world have been reacting to the news

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of the death of Fidel Castro, the Cuban revolutionary who came

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to power in 1959 and ushered in a Marxist revolution.

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Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson described the former leader

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as an "historic if controversial figure" and said his death marked

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Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said Castro was "a champion of social

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justice" who had "seen off a lot of US presidents"

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President-elect Donald Trump described the former Cuban leader

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as a "brutal dictator", adding that he hoped his death

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would begin a new era "in which the wonderful Cuban people

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finally live in the freedom they so richly deserve".

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Meanwhile, the President of the European Commission,

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Jean-Claude Juncker, said the controversial leader

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was "a hero for many" but "his legacy will be judged

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I guess we had worked that out ourselves. What do you make of the

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reactions so far across the political divide? Predictable. And I

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noticed that Jeremy Corbyn has come in for criticism for his tribute to

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Castro. But I think it was the right thing for him to do. We all know he

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was an admirer. He could have sat there for eight hours in his house,

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agonising over some bland statement which didn't alienate the many

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people who want to wade into attacked Castro. It would have been

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inauthentic and would have just added to the sort of mainstream

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consensus, and I think he was right to say what he believed in this

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respect. Elsewhere, it has been wholly predictable that there would

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be this device, because he divided opinion in such an emotive way.

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Steve, I take your point about authenticity and it might have

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looked a bit lame for Jeremy Corbyn to pretend that he had no affection

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for Fidel Castro at all, but do you think he made a bit of an error

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dismissing Castro's record, the negative side of it as just a floor?

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He could have acknowledged in more elaborate terms the huge costs. He

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wanted to go on about the health and education, which if you actually

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look up the indices on that, they are good relative to other

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countries. But they have come at such a huge cost. He was not a

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champion of criminal justice. If he had done that, it would have been

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utterly inauthentic. He doesn't believe it. And he would have

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thought there would be many other people focusing on all the epic

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failings. So he focused on what he believed. There are times when

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Corbyn's prominence in the media world now as leader widens the

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debate in an interesting and important way. I am not aware of any

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criticisms that Mr Corbyn has ever announced about Mr Castro. There

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were four words in his statement yesterday which is spin doctor would

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have forced him to say, for all his flaws. He was on this Cuban

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solidarity committee, which didn't exist to criticise Castro. It

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existed to help protect Castro from those, particularly the Americans,

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who were trying to undermine him. And Corbyn made a big deal yesterday

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saying he has always called out human rights abuses all over the

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world. But he said that in general, I call out human rights abuses. He

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never said, I have called out human rights abuses in Cuba. In the weeks

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ahead, more will come out about what these human rights abuses were. The

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lid will come off what was actually happening. Some well authenticated

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stories are pretty horrendous. I was speaking to a journalist who was

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working there in the 1990s, who gave me vivid examples of that, and there

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will be more to come. I still go back to, when a major figure diet

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and you are a leader who has admired but major figure, you have to say

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it. That is the trap he has fallen into. He has proved every criticism

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that he is a duck old ideologue. But he is not the only one. Prime

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Minister Trudeau was so if uses that I wondered if they were going to

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open up a book of condolences. I think it reinforces Corbyn's failing

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brand. It may be authentic, but authentic isn't working for him.

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When I was driving, I heard Trevor Phillips, who is a Blairite, saying

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the record was mixed and there were a lot of things to admire as well as

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all the terrible things. So it is quite nuanced. But if you are a

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leader issuing a sound bite, there is no space for new ones. You either

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decide to go for the consensus, which is to set up on the whole, it

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was a brutal dictatorship. Or you say, here is an extraordinary figure

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worthy of admiration. In my view, he was right to say what he believed.

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There was still a dilemma for the British government over who they

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sent to the funeral. Do they sent nobody, do they say and Boris

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Johnson as a post-ironic statement? There is now a post-Castro Cuba to

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deal with. Trump was quite diplomatic about post-Castro Cuba.

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And Boris Johnson's statement was restrained. The thing about Mr

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Castro was the longevity, 50 years of keeping Marxism on the island.

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That was what made it so fascinating.

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Before the last election, George Osborne promised the NHS

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in England a real-terms funding boost of ?8 billion per year by 2020

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on the understanding that NHS bosses would also find ?22 billion worth

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Since last autumn, NHS managers have been drawing up what they're calling

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"Sustainability and Transformation Plans" to make these savings,

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but some of the proposals are already running into local

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opposition, while Labour say they amount to huge cuts to the NHS.

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Help is on the way for an elderly person in need in Hertfordshire.

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But east of England ambulance call operators

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they're sending an early intervention vehicle

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with a council-employed occupational therapist on board.

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It's being piloted here for over 65s with

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When they arrive, a paramedic judges if the patient can be

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treated immediately at home without a trip to hospital.

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Around 80% of patients have been treated this way,

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taking the strain off urgently-needed hospital beds,

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So the early intervention team has assessed the patient and decided

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The key to successful integration for Hertfordshire being able

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to collaboratively look at how we use our resources,

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to have pooled budgets, to allow us to understand

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where spend is, and to let us make conscientious decisions about how

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best to use that money, to come up with ideas to problems

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that sit between our organisations, to look at things collaboratively.

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This Hertfordshire hospital is also a good example of how

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You won't find an A unit or overnight beds here any more.

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The closest ones are 20 minutes down the road.

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What's left is nurse-led care in an NHS-built hospital.

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Despite a politically toxic change, this reconfiguration went

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through after broad public and political consultation

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with hospital clinicians and GPs on board.

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It's a notable achievement that's surely of interest to 60% of NHS

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trusts in England that reported a deficit at the end of September.

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It's not just here that the NHS needs to save money and provide

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The Government is going to pour in an extra ?8 billion into the NHS

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in England, but it has demanded ?22 billion

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worth of efficiencies across the country.

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In order to deliver that, the NHS has created 44 health

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and care partnerships, and each one will provide

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a sustainability and transformation plan, or STP, to integrate care,

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provide better services and save money.

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So far, 33 of these 44 regional plans, drawn up by senior people

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in the health service and local government,

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The NHS has been through five years of severely constrained spending

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growth, and there are another 4-5 years on the way at least.

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STPs themselves are an attempt to deal in a planned way

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But with plans to close some A units and reduce the number

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of hospital beds, there's likely to be a tough political battle

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ahead, with many MPs already up in arms about proposed

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This Tory backbencher is concerned about the local plans for his

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I wouldn't call it an efficiency if you are proposing to close

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all of the beds which are currently provided for those coming out

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of the acute sector who are elderly and looking

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That's not a cut, it's not an efficiency saving,

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All 44 STPs should be published in a month's time,

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But even before that, they dominated this week's PMQs.

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The Government's sustainability and transformation plans

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for the National Health Service hide ?22 billion of cuts.

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The National Health Service is indeed looking for savings

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within the NHS, which will be reinvested in the NHS.

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There will be no escape from angry MPs for the Health Secretary either.

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Well, I have spoken to the Secretary of State just this week

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about the importance of community hospitals in general,

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These are proposals out to consultation.

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What could happen if these plans get blocked?

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If STPs cannot be made to work, the planned changes don't come

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to pass, then the NHS will see over time a sort of unplanned

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deterioration and services becoming unstable and service

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The NHS barely featured in this week's Autumn Statement

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but the Prime Minister insisted beforehand that STPs

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are in the interests of local people.

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Her Government's support will now be critical for NHS England

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to push through these controversial regional plans,

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which will soon face public scrutiny.

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We did ask the Department of Health for an interview,

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I've been joined by the Shadow Health Secretary,

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Do you accept that the NHS is capable of making ?22 billion of

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efficiency savings? Well, we are very sceptical, as are number of

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independent organisations about the ability of the NHS to find 22

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billion of efficiencies without that affecting front line care. When you

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drill down into the 22 billion, based on the information we have

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been given, and there hasn't been much information, we can see that

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some of it will come from cutting the budget which go to community

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pharmacies, which could lead, according to ministers, to 3000

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pharmacies closing, which we believe will increase demands on A and

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GPs, and also that a lot of these changes which are being proposed,

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which was the focus of the package, we think will mean service cuts at a

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local level. Do they? The chief executive of NHS England says these

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efficiency plans are "Incredibly important". He used to work from

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Labour. The independent King's Fund calls them "The best hope to improve

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health and care services. There is no plan B". On the sustainable

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transformation plans, which will be across England to link up physical

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health, mental health and social care, for those services to

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collaborate more closely together and move beyond the fragmented

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system we have at the moment is important. It seems that the ground

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has shifted. It has moved into filling financial gaps. As we know,

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the NHS is going through the biggest financial squeeze in its history. By

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2018, per head spending on the NHS will be falling. If you want to

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redesign services for the long term in a local area, you need to put the

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money in. So of course, getting these services working better

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together and having a greater strategic oversight, which we would

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have had if we had not got rid of strategic health authority is in the

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last Parliament. But this is not an attempt to save 22 billion, this is

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an attempt to spend 22 billion more successfully, don't you accept that?

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Simon Stevens said we need 8 billion, and we need to find 22

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billion of savings. You have to spend 22 billion more efficiently.

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But the Government have not given that 8 billion to the NHS which they

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said they would. They said they would do it by 2020. But they have

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changed the definitions of spending so NHS England will get 8 billion by

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2020, but they have cut the public health budgets by about 4 million by

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20 20. The budget that going to initiatives to tackle sexually

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transmitted diseases, to tackle smoking have been cut back but the

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commissioning of things like school nurses and health visitors have been

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cut back as well. Simon Stevens said he can only deliver that five-year

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project if there is a radical upgrade in public health, which the

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Government have failed on, and if we deal with social care, and this week

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there was an... I understand that, but if you don't think the

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efficiency drive can free up 22 billion to take us to 30 billion by

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2020, where would you get the money from? I have been in this post now

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for five or six weeks and I want to have a big consultation with

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everybody who works in the health sector, as well as patients, carers

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and families. Though you don't know? I think it would be surprised if I

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had an arbitrary figure this soon into the job. Your party said they

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expected election of spring by this year, you need to have some idea by

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now, you inherited a portfolio from Diane Abbott, did she have no idea?

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To govern is to make choices and we would make different choices. The

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budget last year scored billions of giveaways in things like

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co-operating -- corporation tax. What I do want to do... Is work on a

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plan and the general election, whenever it comes, next year or in

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2020 or in between, to have costed plan for the NHS. But your party is

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committed to balancing the books on current spending, that is currently

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John McDonnell, the Shadow Chancellor's position. What we are

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talking about, this extra 30 billion, that is essentially current

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spending so if it doesn't come from efficiency savings, where does the

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money come from? Some of it is also capital. Mainly current spending. If

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you look at the details of the OBR, they have switched a million from

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the capital into revenue. Why -- how do you balance spending?

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That is why we need to have a debate. Every time we ask for

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Labour's policy, we are always told me a debate. Surely it is time to

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give some idea of what you stand for? There's huge doubts about the

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Government 's policy on this. You are the opposition, how would you do

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it? I want to work with John McDonnell to find a package to give

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the NHS the money it needs, but of course our Shadow Chancellor, like

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any Shadow Chancellor at this stage in the cycle, will want to see what

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the books look like a head of an election before making commitments.

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I am clear that the Labour Party has to go into the next general election

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with a clear policy to give the NHS the funding it needs because it has

:19:34.:19:36.

been going through the largest financial squeeze in its history.

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You say Labour will always give the NHS the money it needs, that is not

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a policy, it is a blank cheque. It is an indication of our commitment

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to the NHS. Under this Conservative government, the NHS has been getting

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a 1% increase. Throughout its history it has usually have about

:19:57.:20:01.

4%. Under the last Labour government it was getting 4%, before that

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substantially more. We think the NHS should get more but I don't have

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access to the NHS books in front of me. The public thinks there needs to

:20:10.:20:18.

be more money spent on health but they also think that should go cap

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in hand with the money being more efficiently spent, which is what

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this efficiency drive is designed to release 22 billion. Do you have an

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efficiency drive if it is not the Government's one? Of course we

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agree. We agree the NHS should be more efficient, we want to see

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productivity increased. Do know how to do that? One way is through

:20:44.:20:50.

investments, maintenance, but there is a 5 million maintenance backlog.

:20:51.:20:57.

One of the most high risk backlogs is something like 730 million. They

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are going to switch the capital spend into revenue spend. I believe

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that when you invest in maintenance and capital in the NHS, that

:21:08.:21:11.

contribute to increasing its productivity. You are now talking

:21:12.:21:15.

about 5 billion the maintenance, the chief executive says it needs 30

:21:16.:21:21.

billion more by 2020 as a minimum so that 35 billion. You want to spend

:21:22.:21:28.

more on social care, another for 5 billion on that so we have proper

:21:29.:21:32.

care in the community. By that calculation I'm up to about 40

:21:33.:21:36.

billion, which is fine, except where do you get the and balance the

:21:37.:21:41.

account at the same time? We will have to come up with a plan for that

:21:42.:21:45.

and that's why I will work with our Shadow Treasury team to come up with

:21:46.:21:48.

that plan when they head into the general election. At the moment we

:21:49.:21:53.

are saying to the NHS, sorry, we are not going to give you the

:21:54.:21:56.

investment, which is why we are seeing patient care deteriorating.

:21:57.:22:04.

The staff are doing incredible things but 180,000 are waiting in

:22:05.:22:10.

A beyond four hours, record levels of people delayed in beds in

:22:11.:22:13.

hospitals because there are not the beds in the community to go to save

:22:14.:22:18.

the NHS needs the investment. We know that and we know the

:22:19.:22:21.

Government's response to that and many think it is inadequate. What

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I'm trying to get from you is what your response would be and what your

:22:26.:22:29.

reaction will be to these efficiency plans. Your colleague Heidi

:22:30.:22:34.

Alexander, she had your job earlier this year, she warned of the danger

:22:35.:22:40.

of knee jerk blanket opposition to local efficiency plans. Do you agree

:22:41.:22:47.

with that? Yes. So every time a hospital is going to close as a

:22:48.:22:53.

result of this, and some will, it is Labour default position not just

:22:54.:22:57.

going to be we are against it? That is why we are going to judge each of

:22:58.:23:01.

these sustainability plans by a number of yardsticks. We want to see

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if they have the support of local clinicians, we want to see if they

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have the support of local authorities because they now have a

:23:10.:23:12.

role in the delivery of health care. We want to see if they make the

:23:13.:23:16.

right decisions for the long-term trends in population for local area.

:23:17.:23:21.

We want to see if they integrate social care and health. If they

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don't and therefore you will not bank that as an efficiency saving,

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you will say no, that's not the way to go, you are left then with

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finding the alternative funding to keep the NHS going. If you are

:23:35.:23:40.

cutting beds, for example the proposal is to cut something like

:23:41.:23:46.

5000 beds in Derbyshire and if there is the space in the community sector

:23:47.:23:50.

in Derbyshire, that will cause big problems for the NHS in the long

:23:51.:23:54.

term so it is a false economy. An example like that, we would be very

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sceptical the plans could work. Would it not be honest, given the

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sums of money involved and your doubts about the efficiency plan,

:24:04.:24:08.

which are shared by many people, to just say, look, among the wealthy

:24:09.:24:14.

nations, we spend a lower proportion of our GDP on health than most of

:24:15.:24:19.

the other countries, European countries included, we need to put

:24:20.:24:25.

up tax if we want a proper NHS. Wouldn't that be honest? I'm not the

:24:26.:24:30.

Shadow Chancellor, I don't make taxation policy. You are tempting me

:24:31.:24:36.

down a particular road by you or I smile. John McDonnell will come up

:24:37.:24:40.

with our taxation policy. We have had an ambition to meet the European

:24:41.:24:44.

average, the way these things are measured have changed since then,

:24:45.:24:47.

but we did have that ambition and for a few years we met it. We need

:24:48.:24:54.

substantial investment in the NHS. Everyone accepts it was

:24:55.:24:56.

extraordinary that there wasn't an extra penny for the NHS in the

:24:57.:25:01.

Autumn Statement this week. And as we go into the general election,

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whenever it is, we will have a plan for the NHS. Come back and speak to

:25:07.:25:10.

us when you know what you are going to do. Thank you.

:25:11.:25:12.

Theresa May has promised to trigger formal Brexit negotiations

:25:13.:25:15.

before the end of March, but the Prime Minister must wait

:25:16.:25:17.

for the Supreme Court to decide whether parliament must vote

:25:18.:25:20.

If that is the Supreme Court's conclusion, the Liberal Democrats

:25:21.:25:23.

and others in parliament have said they'll demand a second EU

:25:24.:25:26.

referendum on the terms of the eventual Brexit deal before

:25:27.:25:28.

And last week, two former Prime Ministers suggested

:25:29.:25:32.

that the referendum result could be reversed.

:25:33.:25:35.

In an interview with the New Statesman on Thursday,

:25:36.:25:38.

Tony Blair said, "It can be stopped if the British people decide that,

:25:39.:25:41.

having seen what it means, the pain-gain cost-benefit analysis

:25:42.:25:43.

John Major also weighed in, telling a meeting

:25:44.:25:50.

of the National Liberal Club that the terms of Brexit

:25:51.:25:52.

were being dictated by the "tyranny of the majority".

:25:53.:25:54.

He also said there is a "perfectly credible case"

:25:55.:25:57.

That prompted the former Conservative leader

:25:58.:26:01.

Iain Duncan Smith to criticise John Major.

:26:02.:26:04.

He told the BBC, "The idea we delay everything simply

:26:05.:26:06.

because they disagree with the original result does

:26:07.:26:09.

seem to me an absolute dismissal of democracy."

:26:10.:26:14.

So, is there a realistic chance of a second referendum on the terms

:26:15.:26:17.

of whatever Brexit deal Theresa May manages to secure?

:26:18.:26:21.

Lib Dem party leader Tim Farron has said, "We want to respect

:26:22.:26:25.

the will of the people and that means they must have their say

:26:26.:26:28.

in a referendum on the terms of the deal."

:26:29.:26:32.

But the Lib Dems have just eight MPs - they'll need Labour support

:26:33.:26:35.

One ally is former Labour leadership candidate Owen Smith.

:26:36.:26:40.

He backs the idea of a second referendum.

:26:41.:26:44.

But yesterday the party's deputy leader, Tom Watson, said that,

:26:45.:26:47.

"Unlike the Lib Dem Brexit Deniers, we believe in respecting

:26:48.:26:49.

To discuss whether or not there should be a second referendum

:26:50.:26:57.

on the terms of the Brexit deal, I've been joined by two

:26:58.:27:00.

In Somerset is the former Lib Dem leader Paddy Ashdown,

:27:01.:27:04.

and in Shropshire is the former Conservative cabinet minister

:27:05.:27:06.

Paddy Ashdown, let me come to you first. When the British people have

:27:07.:27:18.

spoken, you do what they command, either you believe in democracy or

:27:19.:27:23.

you don't. When democracy speaks, we obey. Your words on the night of the

:27:24.:27:30.

referendum, what's changed? Nothing has changed, Andrew, that's what I

:27:31.:27:34.

said and what I still believe in. The British people have spoken, we

:27:35.:27:38.

will not block Parliament debating the Brexit decision, Article 50, but

:27:39.:27:44.

we will introduce an amendment to say that we need to consult the

:27:45.:27:51.

British people, not about if we go out but what destination we would

:27:52.:27:58.

then achieve. There is a vast difference in ordinary people's

:27:59.:28:02.

lives between the so-called hard Brexit and soft Brexit. Soft Brexit,

:28:03.:28:07.

you remain in the single market, you have to accept and agree on

:28:08.:28:11.

immigration. Hard Brexit you are out of the single market, we have many

:28:12.:28:19.

fewer jobs... Why didn't you say before the referendum there would be

:28:20.:28:25.

a second referendum on the terms? Forgive me, I said it on many

:28:26.:28:29.

occasions, you may not have covered it, Andrew, but that's a different

:28:30.:28:34.

thing. In every speech I gave I said this, and this has proved to be

:28:35.:28:39.

true, since those who recommended Brexit refused to tell us the

:28:40.:28:42.

destination they were recommending, they refuse to give any detail about

:28:43.:28:47.

the destination, if we did vote to go out, it would probably be

:28:48.:28:51.

appropriate to decide which destination, hard Brexit or soft

:28:52.:28:56.

Brexit we go to. They deliberately obscure that because it made it more

:28:57.:29:00.

difficult to argue the case. It wasn't part of the official campaign

:29:01.:29:06.

but let me come to Owen Paterson. What's wrong with a referendum on

:29:07.:29:11.

the terms of the deal? We voted to leave but we don't really know on

:29:12.:29:14.

what conditions we leave so what's wrong with negotiating the deal and

:29:15.:29:17.

putting that deal to the British people? This would be a ridiculous

:29:18.:29:26.

idea, it would be a complete gift to the EU negotiators to go for an

:29:27.:29:30.

impossibly difficult deal because they want to do everything to make

:29:31.:29:34.

sure that Brexit does not go through. This nonsense idea of hard

:29:35.:29:39.

Brexit and soft Brexit, it was never discussed during the referendum

:29:40.:29:43.

campaign. We made it clear we wanted to take back control, that means

:29:44.:29:49.

making our own laws, raising and spending the money agreed by elected

:29:50.:29:53.

politicians, getting control of our own borders back, and getting

:29:54.:29:57.

control of our ability to do trade deals around the world. That was

:29:58.:30:00.

clear at all stages of the referendum. We got 17.4 million

:30:01.:30:06.

votes, the biggest vote in history for any issue, that 52%, 10% more

:30:07.:30:12.

than John Major got and he was happy with his record number of 14

:30:13.:30:17.

million, more than Tony Blair got, which was 43%, so we have a very

:30:18.:30:21.

clear mandate. Time and again people come up to me and say when are we

:30:22.:30:25.

going to get on with this. The big problem is uncertainty. We want to

:30:26.:30:29.

trigger Article 50, have the negotiation and get to a better

:30:30.:30:31.

place. OK, I need to get a debate going.

:30:32.:30:41.

Paddy Ashdown, the EU doesn't want us to leave. If they knew there was

:30:42.:30:45.

going to be a second referendum, surely there was going to be a

:30:46.:30:47.

second referendum, surely their incentive would be to give us the

:30:48.:30:50.

worst possible deal would vote against it would put us in a

:30:51.:30:55.

ridiculous negotiating position. On the contrary, the government could

:30:56.:30:59.

go and negotiate with the European Union and anyway, the opinion of the

:31:00.:31:02.

European Union is less important than the opinion of the British

:31:03.:31:06.

people. It seems to me that Owen Paterson made the case for me

:31:07.:31:11.

precisely. They refuse to discuss what kind of destination. Britain

:31:12.:31:17.

voted for departure, but not a destination. Because Owen Paterson

:31:18.:31:19.

and his colleagues refused to discuss what their model was. So the

:31:20.:31:25.

range of options here and the impact on the people of Britain is huge.

:31:26.:31:28.

There is nothing to stop the government going to negotiate,

:31:29.:31:32.

getting the best deal it can and go into the British people and saying,

:31:33.:31:37.

this is the deal, guys, do you agree? Owen Paterson? It is simple.

:31:38.:31:44.

The British people voted to leave. We voted to take back control of our

:31:45.:31:51.

laws, our money, our borders. But most people don't know the shape of

:31:52.:31:54.

what the deal would be. So why not have a vote on it? Because it would

:31:55.:32:02.

be a gift to the EU negotiators to drive the worst possible deal in the

:32:03.:32:07.

hope that it might be chucked out with a second referendum. The

:32:08.:32:10.

biggest danger is the uncertainty. We have the biggest vote in British

:32:11.:32:17.

history. You have said all that. It was your side that originally

:32:18.:32:21.

proposed a second referendum. The director of Leave said, there is a

:32:22.:32:26.

strong democratic case for a referendum on what the deal looks

:32:27.:32:32.

like. Your side. Come on, you are digging up a blog from June of 2015.

:32:33.:32:43.

He said he had not come to a conclusion. He said it is a distinct

:32:44.:32:51.

possibility. No senior members of the campaign said we would have a

:32:52.:32:56.

second referendum. It is worth chucking Paddy the quote he gave on

:32:57.:33:00.

ITV news, whether it is a majority of 1% or 20%, when the British

:33:01.:33:04.

people have spoken, you do what they command. People come up to me and

:33:05.:33:10.

keep asking, when are you going to get on with it? What do you say to

:33:11.:33:20.

that, Paddy Ashdown? Owen Paterson has obviously not been paying

:33:21.:33:23.

attention. You ask me that question at the start. Owen and his kind have

:33:24.:33:33.

to stick to the same argument. During the referendum, when we said

:33:34.:33:37.

that the Europeans have it in their interest to picket tough for us,

:33:38.:33:43.

they would suffer as well. And that has proved to be right. The European

:33:44.:33:47.

Union does not wish to hand as a bad deal, because they may suffer in the

:33:48.:33:52.

process. We need the best deal for both sides. I can't understand why

:33:53.:34:04.

Owen is now reversing that argument. Here is the question I am going to

:34:05.:34:08.

ask you. If we have a second referendum on the deal and we vote

:34:09.:34:17.

by a very small amount, by a sliver, to stay in, can we then make it

:34:18.:34:28.

best-of-3? No, Andrew! Vince Cable says he thinks if you won, he would

:34:29.:34:33.

have to have a decider. You will have to put that income tax, because

:34:34.:34:37.

I don't remember when he said that. -- you have to put that in context.

:34:38.:34:46.

Independent, 19th of September. That is a decision on the outcome. The

:34:47.:34:52.

central point is that the British people voted for departure, not a

:34:53.:34:56.

destination. In response to the claim that this is undemocratic, if

:34:57.:35:01.

it is democratic to have one referendum, how can it be

:35:02.:35:07.

undemocratic to have two? Owen Paterson, the British government, on

:35:08.:35:10.

the brink of triggering article 50, cannot tell us if we will remain

:35:11.:35:14.

members of the single market, if we will remain members of the customs

:35:15.:35:20.

union. From that flows our ability to make trade deals, our attitude

:35:21.:35:25.

towards freedom of movement and the rest of it. Given that the

:35:26.:35:27.

government can't tell us, it is clear that the British people have

:35:28.:35:31.

no idea what the eventual shape will be. That is surely the fundamental

:35:32.:35:37.

case for a second referendum. Emphatically not. They have given a

:35:38.:35:44.

clear vote. That vote was to take back control. What the establishment

:35:45.:35:51.

figures like Paddy should recognise is the shattering damage it would do

:35:52.:35:54.

to the integrity of the whole political process if this was not

:35:55.:36:01.

delivered. People come up to me, as I have said for the third time now,

:36:02.:36:04.

wanting to know when we will get article 50 triggered. Both people

:36:05.:36:10.

who have voted to Remain and to Leave. If we do not deliver this, it

:36:11.:36:14.

will be disastrous for the reputation and integrity of the

:36:15.:36:18.

whole political establishment. Let me put that you Paddy Ashdown. It is

:36:19.:36:27.

very Brussels elite - were ask your question but if we don't like the

:36:28.:36:30.

answer, we will keep asking the question. Did it with the Irish and

:36:31.:36:39.

French. It is... It would really anger the British people, would it

:36:40.:36:45.

not? That is an interesting question, Andrew. I don't think it

:36:46.:36:50.

would. All the evidence I see in public meetings I attended, and I

:36:51.:36:53.

think it is beginning to show in the opinion polls, although there hasn't

:36:54.:36:56.

been a proper one on this yet, I suspect there is a majority in

:36:57.:37:00.

Britain who would wish to see a second referendum on the outcome.

:37:01.:37:03.

They take the same view as I do. What began with an open democratic

:37:04.:37:08.

process cannot end with a government stitch up. Contrary to what Owen

:37:09.:37:12.

suggests, there is public support for this. And far from damaging the

:37:13.:37:19.

government and the political class, it showed that we are prepared to

:37:20.:37:24.

listen. We shall see. Paddy Ashdown, have you eaten your hat yet? Andrew,

:37:25.:37:33.

as you well know, I have eaten five hats. You cannot have a second

:37:34.:37:38.

referendum until you eat your hat on my programme. We will leave it

:37:39.:37:41.

there. Paddy Ashdown and Owen Paterson, thank you much. I have

:37:42.:37:48.

eaten a hat on your programme. I don't remember!

:37:49.:37:51.

It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

:37:52.:37:53.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now

:37:54.:38:04.

Hello, I'm Julia George, and this is the Sunday Politics

:38:05.:38:07.

Coming up later, the living on hand-outs.

:38:08.:38:14.

The maximum amount of benefit money families can receive drops

:38:15.:38:16.

considerably this month and we will consider the consequences.

:38:17.:38:18.

Joining me in the studio today to talk about that

:38:19.:38:22.

and other issues, the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions,

:38:23.:38:25.

Damian Green, he is also the Conservative

:38:26.:38:26.

And alongside Damian is the Labour leader

:38:27.:38:29.

of the Hastings Borough Council, Peter Chowney.

:38:30.:38:31.

Sometimes, it is what the Chancellor doesn't say that is most

:38:32.:38:35.

This week, in his first Autumn Statement, Philip Hammond

:38:36.:38:39.

confirmed ?50 million per year for grammar schools,

:38:40.:38:43.

but there was no news for the fair funding formula for schools

:38:44.:38:46.

which were such a bone of contention in the South East.

:38:47.:38:49.

So what does this tell us about the Government

:38:50.:38:54.

The Government's education reforms has raised the standards

:38:55.:38:58.

and expanded opportunity with 1.4 million more children.

:38:59.:39:00.

Children now in good or outstanding schools.

:39:01.:39:04.

And the new capital funding that I provided today for grammar schools

:39:05.:39:07.

How can a Government seriously talk about supporting a 21st-century

:39:08.:39:13.

economy when they are planning to put tens of millions

:39:14.:39:15.

into the failed 20th-century policy of grammar schools?

:39:16.:39:21.

Segregating our children at an early age.

:39:22.:39:26.

Your Government, Damian Green, talks about a country that

:39:27.:39:37.

About people who are just about managing,

:39:38.:39:40.

about social mobility, and then the only education

:39:41.:39:42.

funding that is mentioned in the Autumn Statement

:39:43.:39:44.

is ?50 million for one type of school on the,

:39:45.:39:46.

Well, because that is one of the elements of the much wider

:39:47.:39:51.

plan, which is working to improve education for everyone.

:39:52.:39:54.

We've got nearly 1.5 million children more in good

:39:55.:39:58.

or outstanding schools than where in 2010.

:39:59.:40:01.

Part of the next phase - only part of the next phase,

:40:02.:40:04.

an important part of the next phase - is to allow grammar schools

:40:05.:40:07.

to expand, grammar schools in many cases provide an excellent education

:40:08.:40:09.

for children from all backgrounds.

:40:10.:40:11.

But expanding grammar schools wasn't in your last manifesto.

:40:12.:40:18.

And schools like Tanbridge and Forest School in Horsham Have

:40:19.:40:22.

35or 36 children in a class that is designed for 30.

:40:23.:40:25.

I wonder how those parents feel about those ?50 million only

:40:26.:40:27.

Well, we have said that we are dealing

:40:28.:40:30.

As you say, the announcement wasn't in the Autumn Statement,

:40:31.:40:37.

but you wouldn't particularly expect it in the Autumn Statement.

:40:38.:40:39.

I think some of your colleagues who are in West Sussex may well have

:40:40.:40:43.

appreciated some transition funding on this.

:40:44.:40:44.

And they are finding it difficult to support your wider issue,

:40:45.:40:49.

and Tim Loughton said in a Westminster debate this month,

:40:50.:40:52.

it is very hard for constituency MPs to support the Government's

:40:53.:40:57.

programme on such things as grammar schools which will divert funds

:40:58.:40:59.

when we need those funds now to plug the gaps in all schools of whatever

:41:00.:41:03.

Those are your own Conservative colleagues saying things like that.

:41:04.:41:12.

That is one of my colleagues, but I know that across Kent

:41:13.:41:15.

there is widespread support for grammar schools

:41:16.:41:17.

And also we see the whole education system in action.

:41:18.:41:20.

So underfunding in West Sussex isn't a problem for you?

:41:21.:41:23.

I mean, everyone wants a new funding formula and the Government

:41:24.:41:26.

is committed to producing a new funding formula

:41:27.:41:27.

because the existing formula has lasted for too long.

:41:28.:41:30.

And yet, there is ?15 million for grammar schools,

:41:31.:41:36.

which take a very small proportion of the most disadvantaged children.

:41:37.:41:38.

That doesn't look like a Government that is generally

:41:39.:41:43.

I don't think this is either grammar schools or something else.

:41:44.:41:52.

The whole funding formula is a much bigger issue than ?50 million.

:41:53.:41:54.

Because that involves restructuring the school budgets

:41:55.:41:56.

The point is being made by many counties in the South East

:41:57.:42:00.

as well as a particularly rural counties in other parts

:42:01.:42:02.

of the country that the current funding formula doesn't

:42:03.:42:05.

And that is why the Government is committed to changing it.

:42:06.:42:10.

I don't think it is one of the other, we want both.

:42:11.:42:12.

Disadvantaged children do get a real boost in grammar schools

:42:13.:42:17.

and that is one of the reasons Theresa May is so keen on them.

:42:18.:42:20.

They nearly catch up with privileged children.

:42:21.:42:28.

Some other schools in Hastings have among the worst GCSE

:42:29.:42:30.

I bet there in Hastings that would love a grammar school?

:42:31.:42:34.

I'm certainly not a fan of grammar schools myself.

:42:35.:42:37.

We don't have them in Hastings, don't have in East Sussex at all.

:42:38.:42:49.

I think segregating children at the age of 11...

:42:50.:42:52.

It's all very well saying grammar schools do well and perform well,

:42:53.:42:54.

but it's all the other children that don't get into the grammar school

:42:55.:43:04.

I think that are not getting good deal out of it.

:43:05.:43:07.

And also, when you compare the results of grammar schools

:43:08.:43:09.

would say the top 20% of children, students in a good comprehensive,

:43:10.:43:12.

grammar schools really don't do as well.

:43:13.:43:14.

I just don't think it's a good solution.

:43:15.:43:16.

Staying with money and education, lots of children miss out, don't

:43:17.:43:20.

We're going to come onto welfare in just a moment.

:43:21.:43:24.

They miss out on free school meals, and as a result they miss out

:43:25.:43:28.

on ?1000 per pupil on pupil premium money.

:43:29.:43:30.

There is an amendment to the Digital economy Bill that is being voted

:43:31.:43:33.

It allows for children eligible for free school meals to be

:43:34.:43:37.

I haven't looked at that amendment yet.

:43:38.:43:40.

Clearly, if someone is entitled to free school meals,

:43:41.:43:45.

It would seem strange that they wouldn't take that up.

:43:46.:43:49.

But that funding, that ?1000 can make such a difference

:43:50.:43:51.

So therefore, that is an incentive for the school to act on it.

:43:52.:43:55.

But at the moment, they have to rely on parents, some of whom feel

:43:56.:43:58.

stigmatised in applying for free school meals.

:43:59.:44:00.

Wouldn't you want people to have the money

:44:01.:44:04.

I'm not conscious of people being stigmatised for being

:44:05.:44:08.

That feels like a very old-fashioned concept.

:44:09.:44:11.

So why do so many people fail to claim it?

:44:12.:44:13.

The pupil premium that was introduced by the coalition

:44:14.:44:15.

Government has been widely welcomed, both by parents

:44:16.:44:17.

It does enable disadvantaged pupils to get an excellent education.

:44:18.:44:23.

If you believe in it, wouldn't you make it easier

:44:24.:44:25.

for families who are entitled to it, and schools who are

:44:26.:44:28.

I think there are various ways you can achieve that.

:44:29.:44:39.

A lot of it is precisely if there is stigma,

:44:40.:44:42.

which I rather doubt, then clearly take that away.

:44:43.:44:44.

And because there is such an incentive on the schools to get

:44:45.:44:47.

the pupil premium money, I would have thought schools

:44:48.:44:49.

would be encouraging families to do this.

:44:50.:44:50.

You'll have the chance to vote and we'll find out how you did

:44:51.:44:54.

There is a big change coming to some families who receive benefits,

:44:55.:45:00.

in particular those who are not in work.

:45:01.:45:02.

The Government has put a limit on how much any household can claim.

:45:03.:45:05.

This month, the maximum amount is being reduced.

:45:06.:45:07.

Campaigners and local authorities are expressing

:45:08.:45:09.

their concerns about what it could mean in practice.

:45:10.:45:14.

Is this the queue for the food bank?

:45:15.:45:16.

This is a scene from Ken Loach's film, I, daniel Blake.

:45:17.:45:28.

Which has put the benefit system and how it affects people's

:45:29.:45:31.

So we've got one adult and two children?

:45:32.:45:40.

It's a fictional account of a visit to a food bank.

:45:41.:45:47.

But for Chris Bargrave, such a visit is an everyday reality.

:45:48.:45:50.

With four children, Chris and his family already struggle

:45:51.:45:52.

And under the new lower benefits cap introduced earlier this month,

:45:53.:46:00.

they have lost ?77 per week and are falling into rent arrears.

:46:01.:46:05.

The Government says the policy encourages people to find a job.

:46:06.:46:07.

That is something Chris says he just can't do.

:46:08.:46:10.

But because it's not the higher rate lupus,

:46:11.:46:15.

And the wife has lupus, which is a lung disease.

:46:16.:46:35.

The benefits cap was introduced in 2013 and limits how much money

:46:36.:46:38.

any household can receive in certain benefits.

:46:39.:46:40.

Until this month, the maximum was ?26,000 per year.

:46:41.:46:42.

That is just under ?385 per week for couples

:46:43.:46:46.

This food bank in Ramsgate, run out of the back of a charity shop,

:46:47.:46:53.

was set up by Kerry Keating four years ago.

:46:54.:46:55.

It gives out around 50 food parcels per week.

:46:56.:46:58.

She says the number of people needing the charity lies help

:46:59.:47:05.

increased after first cap came into force.

:47:06.:47:09.

And expects to see a similar rise under the new lower limit.

:47:10.:47:12.

The job opportunities are not out there.

:47:13.:47:13.

This is what we need, job opportunities that are there.

:47:14.:47:19.

The prospects to be there before they place these

:47:20.:47:21.

They are not going to see such a huge cost in trying

:47:22.:47:26.

to fix all the problems where they are setting people

:47:27.:47:28.

I continuously say the Government keep setting up the most

:47:29.:47:38.

The risk of homelessness is going to be through the roof.

:47:39.:47:42.

The lowering of the benefits cap may disproportionately affect families

:47:43.:47:46.

That is because the level of the cap is the same

:47:47.:47:50.

Social and affordable rents in this part of the world tend to be higher.

:47:51.:47:55.

So someone living in the South East could pay between ?20

:47:56.:47:58.

and ?50 more per week than someone in the north-east.

:47:59.:48:01.

Under the old cap, nearly 800 households in the South East

:48:02.:48:03.

were affected, according to the most recent figures.

:48:04.:48:08.

Nearly 5000 households are expected to be affected by the new lower cap,

:48:09.:48:11.

In Brighton and Hove, the number of households affected

:48:12.:48:21.

The council leader says that will place even more financial

:48:22.:48:27.

pressure on already stretched local authority budgets.

:48:28.:48:30.

Lowering the benefits cap is going to mean even more

:48:31.:48:32.

These are the people just about managing that the

:48:33.:48:36.

That it seems to be doing more to harm than to help.

:48:37.:48:56.

We will spend millions more on helping people that have been cut

:48:57.:48:59.

Having the support pulled out from under them.

:49:00.:49:01.

The Government says discretionary housing payments will be provided

:49:02.:49:04.

to councils to enable them to help those people affected

:49:05.:49:06.

by the changes, and that the policy is fair.

:49:07.:49:08.

The level of the new benefits cap, they say, is close

:49:09.:49:11.

Joining us now is Imran Hussain from the Child

:49:12.:49:14.

It seems obvious that the 20,000 benefits cap will bite hardest

:49:15.:49:19.

that being for most of us are biggest outgoing.

:49:20.:49:21.

It bites hard in London, but obviously the cap has been

:49:22.:49:31.

lowered their not as far as other parts of the country.

:49:32.:49:34.

As we all know, house prices, rental prices

:49:35.:49:38.

We will pick up with Peter Chowney in a little while.

:49:39.:49:42.

He has four kids and another on the way.

:49:43.:49:47.

Is the typical of the people most affected in the sense

:49:48.:49:51.

Actually, so far we have seen the benefit cap was meant to be

:49:52.:49:56.

a policy which is about getting people who can't work -

:49:57.:49:59.

Only 14% of people are in that position at the moment.

:50:00.:50:07.

Only 14% of people on the benefits cap are on jobseeker's allowance.

:50:08.:50:16.

Most people on the benefits cap are lone parents

:50:17.:50:18.

It is difficult for them to move into work.

:50:19.:50:21.

And also people who are on illness or disability benefits.

:50:22.:50:25.

Again, it is difficult for them to move into work and the

:50:26.:50:28.

It is difficult for those families.

:50:29.:50:31.

To take someone like Chris, someone watching might wonder

:50:32.:50:38.

inevitably, why is someone struggling on benefits

:50:39.:50:39.

Don't we have to all take a little bit of

:50:40.:50:44.

In Chris' position, he has a number of children and we as a society

:50:45.:50:58.

have a obligation to look after the children.

:50:59.:51:00.

We are not saying those children should be punished because we don't

:51:01.:51:03.

There seems to be pretty robust public support of the benefits cap.

:51:04.:51:09.

You aren't going back to 2013, but there was a poll

:51:10.:51:11.

for the Department for Work and Pensions, Damian's department,

:51:12.:51:14.

73% of people supported the benefits cap.

:51:15.:51:16.

That is pretty conclusive in terms of public conviction on this?

:51:17.:51:22.

Because it has been sold as a policy to stop people raking

:51:23.:51:27.

Whereas the reality is, we are talking about families

:51:28.:51:33.

who are very far away from the labour market.

:51:34.:51:41.

Who find it very difficult to find work.

:51:42.:51:43.

They are being penalised, that is the reality of it.

:51:44.:51:48.

I think the public would also be, I hope, persuaded if they knew more

:51:49.:51:52.

about the fallout of what is actually happening to the families.

:51:53.:51:56.

Also we are seeing in terms of the food banks and local

:51:57.:51:59.

authorities having to pick up the pieces.

:52:00.:52:00.

The damage, the fallout for the benefits cap is massive.

:52:01.:52:03.

We heard Warren Morgan saying the fallout in Brighton

:52:04.:52:05.

And yet the new cap hasn't kicked in.

:52:06.:52:08.

Damian Green, it seems that families and therefore

:52:09.:52:10.

Is that what supporting people who are just

:52:11.:52:13.

First of all, the principal, the widely supported principal

:52:14.:52:22.

of the benefits cap, is that the system has to be fair

:52:23.:52:27.

to those who are in receipt of benefits and also far to those

:52:28.:52:30.

who pay the benefits, in other words taxpayers.

:52:31.:52:32.

The facts are that, of the people who were affected by the benefits

:52:33.:52:38.

cap at its higher level, 23,500 of those are now in work.

:52:39.:52:42.

It does work to encourage people to get back into work.

:52:43.:52:46.

This is the best for them and their families.

:52:47.:52:48.

In the South East, more specifically, 30%, nearly one third

:52:49.:52:54.

of the people affected by the benefits cap

:52:55.:52:57.

in the South East have got into work.

:52:58.:52:59.

People in control of their own lives.

:53:00.:53:03.

Let's take a single mum who has a 12-month-old baby.

:53:04.:53:12.

And unless she works, she is hit by the cap.

:53:13.:53:14.

But there is no free childcare and even then, until her child

:53:15.:53:17.

is two years old, it is only for 38 weeks of the year.

:53:18.:53:20.

We are providing more free childcare.

:53:21.:53:22.

But not until your child is two years old.

:53:23.:53:26.

And the cap doesn't bite, in the South East, you would have

:53:27.:53:29.

To get the equivalent of the ?20,000 in benefits

:53:30.:53:35.

Many people will be watching this programme thinking,

:53:36.:53:39.

that is a reasonable amount of money.

:53:40.:53:43.

There are plenty of people working very had earning

:53:44.:53:51.

That is the relevant figure it seems to me to try

:53:52.:53:58.

Peter, have you seen any impact in your town?

:53:59.:54:01.

We heard Warren Morgan saying they are expecting more,

:54:02.:54:03.

not just on the town but on the council as well.

:54:04.:54:06.

So far, the benefits cap hasn't had a huge impact.

:54:07.:54:11.

Going down to 20,000 will make a difference.

:54:12.:54:14.

Certainly in the poorer parts of town.

:54:15.:54:16.

We have extremes of deprivation in Hastings.

:54:17.:54:19.

The poorest neighbourhood in Hastings is the 11th most

:54:20.:54:21.

That is right here in the heart of the supposedly

:54:22.:54:30.

You have really big long-term problems.

:54:31.:54:33.

People with intergenerational unemployment.

:54:34.:54:34.

Mental health problems, lack of skills, lack of education.

:54:35.:54:38.

It makes it hard for people to get into work, even where they are

:54:39.:54:41.

That is precisely why, as was mentioned in the feature,

:54:42.:54:47.

we provided ?1 billion of discretionary housing payments

:54:48.:54:49.

Absolutely, we get the point about potential homelessness.

:54:50.:55:01.

That is why we give a lot of money from central Government and local

:55:02.:55:05.

government precisely to keep people in their homes.

:55:06.:55:07.

That is why we produced a Green Paper on work and have

:55:08.:55:10.

There is ?1 billion of discretionary payments.

:55:11.:55:15.

There is some help to local authorities in terms

:55:16.:55:28.

of discretionary housing payments, but every local council it

:55:29.:55:30.

will go to, every charity, will say that is not enough.

:55:31.:55:33.

A majority of local councils don't take up 100%

:55:34.:55:35.

of their discretionary housing payments.

:55:36.:55:36.

So it is not true that local authorities are overwhelmed.

:55:37.:55:38.

Most of them don't take up all the money.

:55:39.:55:49.

Let's pick up on austerity and who it hits.

:55:50.:55:51.

You mention fairness quite a lot yourself, Damian.

:55:52.:55:58.

It has been hitting families more than pensioners.

:55:59.:56:00.

There is speculation, and it was mentioned

:56:01.:56:02.

in the Autumn Statement, that pensions triple lock.

:56:03.:56:04.

It guarantees for people, a quick reminder, it guarantees

:56:05.:56:06.

that it goes up every year, the state pension.

:56:07.:56:08.

The hire of inflation, the increase of average earnings of 2.5%.

:56:09.:56:11.

Your predecessor, Iain Duncan Smith, the former pensions Minister,

:56:12.:56:13.

Ros Altmann, both call for the triple lock to be ditched.

:56:14.:56:16.

It is the manifesto commitment and we stick

:56:17.:56:20.

Each of the lock will last for this Parliament.

:56:21.:56:26.

All policies are looked at in every Parliament.

:56:27.:56:28.

It is too early to start writing our next manifesto.

:56:29.:56:31.

Hold on, instinctively, you have talked about

:56:32.:56:32.

Welfare policy is not something you can just that instinct on.

:56:33.:56:43.

I would make the point that one of the great achievements,

:56:44.:56:49.

and that is not a partisan point, it is an achievement

:56:50.:56:53.

in what has happened in social policy in the last 30 years,

:56:54.:56:56.

has been a massive reduction in pension and poverty.

:56:57.:56:58.

In the 1980s, 40% of pensioners in this country within poverty.

:56:59.:57:01.

I don't want to put that in jeopardy.

:57:02.:57:04.

But Peter, Labour is in a muddle on this one.

:57:05.:57:07.

The Shadow Chancellor, John McDonnell, said

:57:08.:57:08.

this week he would be disappointed if it was scrapped.

:57:09.:57:11.

Frank Field, Work and Pensions Committee chair,

:57:12.:57:12.

says it is time for it to be shelved.

:57:13.:57:15.

I think it should be retained for the foreseeable future.

:57:16.:57:20.

Whether into the long distant future, you need that

:57:21.:57:22.

system or another system, all policies have to be reviewed.

:57:23.:57:25.

At the moment, I think it is that triple lock

:57:26.:57:27.

that has got people, pensioners, out of poverty,

:57:28.:57:29.

and that started way back with the Labour Government.

:57:30.:57:35.

It would be a pity if it was ditched.

:57:36.:57:39.

Gentlemen, grammar school boys all, thank you very much indeed.

:57:40.:57:42.

Some of the news you may have missed.

:57:43.:57:53.

The University of Brighton is trying to find a way to continue running

:57:54.:57:57.

There were demonstrations by students and lecturers

:57:58.:58:10.

when it was announced that the campus would close.

:58:11.:58:12.

Managers say there are not enough sugar to sustain

:58:13.:58:15.

A top by a controversial journalist at a school

:58:16.:58:18.

Simon Langton Grammar School For Boys Where contacted

:58:19.:58:21.

by the Department for Education's counter extremism units.

:58:22.:58:24.

Milo Yiannopoulos is known for his extreme views on race,

:58:25.:58:26.

Some pupils were disappointed that they were denied

:58:27.:58:32.

For too long, you have been able to shut down opposing

:58:33.:58:36.

The politics of people you don't like by saying I am offended.

:58:37.:58:40.

And people who falsely wear military medals to claim that they are war

:58:41.:58:43.

heroes could face prison under a new private members bill.

:58:44.:58:45.

It was put forward by Dartford MP Gareth Johnson and was debated

:58:46.:58:48.

I think people need confidence that when they see people wearing medals

:58:49.:58:52.

at remembrance services wherever, that those medals have been

:58:53.:58:54.

Peter Chowney, let's pick up on the situation with Hastings

:58:55.:59:01.

Is there hope for people who want to see higher

:59:02.:59:05.

We were disappointed with University of Brighton's decision.

:59:06.:59:17.

I think they didn't put enough effort into making that campus work.

:59:18.:59:22.

It is could be a good university town.

:59:23.:59:23.

We determine it should stay one and will be

:59:24.:59:26.

We heard from, in our reports, students on the news saying

:59:27.:59:29.

they didn't want to pay ?9,000 per year to be put

:59:30.:59:32.

They feel demeaned by going back into an FE college.

:59:33.:59:35.

The University Centre that is being proposed

:59:36.:59:40.

We do need a proper university in Hastings.

:59:41.:59:45.

Sussex University may be a solution, but they say it is not something

:59:46.:59:49.

Do you think you could twist the arm?

:59:50.:59:52.

The chair of the governors expressed in the chamber of commerce

:59:53.:59:58.

Certainly not officially, we have not had discussions with him,

:59:59.:00:08.

Very quick thought on Milo Yiannopoulos and the school.

:00:09.:00:12.

Damian Green, you know how bright and robust the children

:00:13.:00:14.

They wanted the opportunity to challenge him.

:00:15.:00:17.

As an understand, it wasn't closed down by the Department

:00:18.:00:21.

for Education, it was a decision in the end by the school.

:00:22.:00:24.

He is clearly, he loves being an irritant.

:00:25.:00:26.

The Government isn't aware that he was going to in some

:00:27.:00:34.

way radicalise children or that there was a risk

:00:35.:00:36.

I think they may have been worries about demonstrations or so on.

:00:37.:00:40.

I agree, I've been to the school a couple of times,

:00:41.:00:42.

It is in some ways a shame that he didn't have to face them.

:00:43.:00:48.

Damian Green and Peter Chowney - Natalie is back next week.

:00:49.:00:57.

have got to make sure London is open. Thank you. Andrew, back to

:00:58.:01:01.

you. Is Theresa May serious

:01:02.:01:07.

about curbing executive pay? Who will be crowned Nigel Farage's

:01:08.:01:09.

successor as Ukip leader? And can the Lib Dems pull off

:01:10.:01:12.

a by-election upset in Richmond? So,,, on pay talk about the

:01:13.:01:40.

executive of what executives get compared to the average worker in

:01:41.:01:43.

the company, giving shareholders real power to vote down pay rises if

:01:44.:01:48.

they don't like them, which is pretty much what Ed Miliband

:01:49.:01:50.

proposed in the general election in 2015. Is she serious about this? She

:01:51.:02:00.

is very serious, and the Tory party probably does owe Ed Miliband an

:02:01.:02:03.

apology for trashing his ideas and 2015 and then putting them all up

:02:04.:02:08.

for votes in November 20 16. She is very serious, and this all comes

:02:09.:02:11.

back to her desperate fear that unless capitalism reforms itself and

:02:12.:02:14.

becomes more acceptable to the just about managing or even 78% of the

:02:15.:02:21.

country who are not earning vast wealth at anywhere near the figures

:02:22.:02:24.

you see in the City, serious things will happen and the political sense

:02:25.:02:31.

of trust will implode. She has already been bartered down by her

:02:32.:02:34.

own Cabinet on this. She wanted to go further and make workers on the

:02:35.:02:37.

board mandatory. They have managed to stop that. What will her fallback

:02:38.:02:44.

position be on workers on the board if she is not able to get it into

:02:45.:02:52.

some claw? We would like to have workers on the board, but whatever

:02:53.:02:56.

they do on the board there will have no voting powers on the board. When

:02:57.:03:00.

you look at what was leaked out over the weekend, that we should know the

:03:01.:03:05.

ratio of the top to the average and that shareholders who own the

:03:06.:03:10.

company should determine, in the end, the highest-paid salaries, you

:03:11.:03:17.

kind of think, what could the possible objection be to any of

:03:18.:03:23.

that? Two things. One, I agree with Tom that she is deadly serious about

:03:24.:03:27.

this agenda and it comes under the banner, that sentence in the party

:03:28.:03:31.

conference speech about "It's time to focus on the good that government

:03:32.:03:36.

can do". She is by instinct more of an interventionist than Cameron and

:03:37.:03:41.

Osborne. But she is incredibly cautious, whether it is through the

:03:42.:03:43.

internal constraints of opposition within Cabinet, or her own small C

:03:44.:03:51.

Conservative caution in implementing this stuff. Part of the problem is

:03:52.:03:55.

the practicalities. George Osborne commission will Hutton to do a

:03:56.:03:59.

report which came out with similar proposals, which were never

:04:00.:04:02.

implemented. It is quite hard to enforce. It will antagonise business

:04:03.:04:08.

leaders when she's to woo them again in this Brexit furore. So there are

:04:09.:04:12.

problems with it. And judging by what has happened so far, my guess

:04:13.:04:17.

is that the aim will be genuinely bold and interesting, and the

:04:18.:04:20.

implementation incredibly cautious. Does it matter if she annoys some

:04:21.:04:26.

business leaders? Isn't that part of her brand? Will there be problems on

:04:27.:04:31.

the Tory backbenches with it? I think there will be and I think it

:04:32.:04:35.

does matter at this sensitive time for when we are positioning

:04:36.:04:37.

ourselves as a country and whether we are going to brand ourselves as a

:04:38.:04:42.

great city of business, implementing quite interventionist policies. Any

:04:43.:04:45.

suggestion that the government can control how much the top earners

:04:46.:04:50.

get, I think would be received in a hostile way. What would be wrong

:04:51.:04:54.

with the shareholders, who own the company, determining the pay of the

:04:55.:04:59.

higher hands, the executives? Morally, you can absolutely make

:05:00.:05:02.

that argument but to business leaders, they will not like it.

:05:03.:05:07.

Ultimately, this will not come down to more than a row of beans. There

:05:08.:05:10.

was a huge debate about whether there should be quotas of women on

:05:11.:05:14.

boards. In the end, that never happened. All we get is figures. But

:05:15.:05:20.

quotas of women, for which there is a case and a case against too, that

:05:21.:05:27.

was a government mandate. This is not, this is simply empowering

:05:28.:05:29.

shareholders who own the company to determine the pay of the people they

:05:30.:05:37.

hire. There is a strong moral argument for it. Strong economic

:05:38.:05:41.

argument. But the Tory backbenchers will not like this. The downside is

:05:42.:05:46.

that this is a world where companies are thinking about upping sticks to

:05:47.:05:51.

Europe. No, they say they are thinking of that. Not one has done

:05:52.:05:56.

it yet. Others have made massive investments in this country. But is

:05:57.:06:01.

it not an incentive for those making these threats to actually do it? In

:06:02.:06:07.

Europe, bankers' pay is now mandated by Brussels. It is a vivid way of

:06:08.:06:12.

showing you are addressing the issue of inequality. I think she will go

:06:13.:06:22.

with it, but let's move on to Ukip. I think we will get the result

:06:23.:06:26.

tomorrow. There are the top three candidates. Paul Nuttall, Suzanne

:06:27.:06:33.

Evans and on my right, John Reid Evans. One of them will be the next

:06:34.:06:37.

leader. Who is going to win? It is widely predicted to be Paul Nuttall

:06:38.:06:42.

and is probably the outcome that the Labour Party fears most. Paul

:06:43.:06:46.

Nuttall is a very effective communicator. He is not a household

:06:47.:06:51.

name, far from it, but people will begin to learn more about him and

:06:52.:06:56.

find that he is actually quite a strong leader. Can people Ukip

:06:57.:07:01.

together again after this shambolic period since the referendum? If

:07:02.:07:09.

anyone can, he can. And his brand of working collar, Northern Ukip is the

:07:10.:07:14.

thing that will work for them. Do you think he is the favourite? It

:07:15.:07:19.

would be amazing if he doesn't win. His greatest problem will be getting

:07:20.:07:23.

Nigel Farage off his back. He is going on a speaking tour of North

:07:24.:07:30.

America. A long speaking tour. Ukip won this EU referendum. They had the

:07:31.:07:34.

chance to hoover up these discontented Labour voters in the

:07:35.:07:39.

north, and all he has done is associated with Ukip with Farage.

:07:40.:07:43.

But Nigel Farage is fed up of Ukip and will be glad to be hands of it.

:07:44.:07:49.

The bigger problem is money. If it is Paul Nuttall, and we don't know

:07:50.:07:54.

the results yet, but he is the favourite, if it is him, I would

:07:55.:07:57.

suggest that that is the result Labour is frightened of most. To be

:07:58.:08:01.

honest, I think they are frightened of Ukip whatever the result.

:08:02.:08:06.

Possibly with good cause. The reason I qualify that is that what you call

:08:07.:08:12.

a shambles over the summer has been something that goes beyond Monty

:08:13.:08:16.

Python in its absurdity and madness. That calls into question whether it

:08:17.:08:21.

can function as a political party when you have what has gone on. The

:08:22.:08:26.

number of leaders itself has been an act of madness. In a context which

:08:27.:08:34.

should be fantastic for them. They have won a referendum. There is a

:08:35.:08:38.

debate about what form Brexit should take, it is a dream for them, and

:08:39.:08:41.

they have gone bonkers. If he can turn it around, I agree that he is a

:08:42.:08:45.

powerful media communicator, and then it is a threat to Labour. But

:08:46.:08:50.

he has got to show that first. Indeed. The by-election in Richmond

:08:51.:08:54.

in south-west London, called by Zac Goldsmith over Heathrow. Has it

:08:55.:09:00.

turned out to be a by-election about Heathrow, or has it turned into a

:09:01.:09:03.

by-election, which is what the Lib Dems wanted, about Brexit? We will

:09:04.:09:09.

know on Thursday. If the Lib Dems win, they will turn it into an EU

:09:10.:09:13.

referendum. It seems incredibly close now. The Lib Dems are swamping

:09:14.:09:18.

Richmond. They had 1000 activists there yesterday. That is getting on

:09:19.:09:22.

for 100th of the population of the place! If the Lib Dems don't manage

:09:23.:09:27.

to win on Thursday and don't manage to turn it into an EU referendum

:09:28.:09:30.

despite all their efforts, it will probably be a disaster for the

:09:31.:09:38.

party. What do you hear, Isabel? I hear that the Lib Dems have

:09:39.:09:42.

absolutely swamped the constituency, but this may backfire. I saw a bit

:09:43.:09:46.

of this myself, living in Witney, when the Lib Dems also swamped and

:09:47.:09:51.

people began to get fed up of their aggressive tactics. I understand

:09:52.:09:57.

that Zac Goldsmith is cautiously optimistic that he will pull this

:09:58.:10:04.

one off. Quick stab at the result? I don't know. But we are entering a

:10:05.:10:12.

period when by-elections are acquiring significant again. If the

:10:13.:10:15.

Lib Dems were to make a game, it would breathe life into that near

:10:16.:10:21.

moribund party like nothing else. Similarly, other by-elections in

:10:22.:10:25.

this shapeless political world we are in are going to become

:10:26.:10:29.

significant. We don't know if we are covering it live on Thursday night

:10:30.:10:32.

yet because we have to find at the time they are going to declare.

:10:33.:10:38.

Richmond are quite late in declaring, but if it is in the early

:10:39.:10:42.

hours, that is fine. If it is on breakfast television, they be not. I

:10:43.:10:48.

want to show you this. Michael Gove was on the Andrew Marr Show this

:10:49.:10:53.

morning. In the now notorious comment that I made, I was actually

:10:54.:10:56.

cut off in midstream, as politicians often. The point I made was not that

:10:57.:10:58.

all experts are that is nonsense. Expert engineers, doctors and

:10:59.:11:09.

physicists are not wrong. But there is a subclass of experts,

:11:10.:11:12.

particularly social scientists, who have to reflect on some of the

:11:13.:11:17.

mistakes they have made. And the recession, which was predicted that

:11:18.:11:20.

we would have if we voted to leave, has gone like a puff of smoke. So

:11:21.:11:27.

economic experts, he talks about. The Chancellor has based all of his

:11:28.:11:30.

forward predictions in this Autumn Statement on the economic expert

:11:31.:11:38.

forecasters. The Office for Budget Responsibility has said it is 50-50,

:11:39.:11:43.

which is the toss of a coin. But what was he supposed to do? You

:11:44.:11:47.

would ideally have to have a Budget that had several sets of scenarios,

:11:48.:11:53.

and that is impossible. Crystal ball territory. But you do wonder if

:11:54.:12:00.

governments are right to do so much of their fiscal projections on the

:12:01.:12:03.

basis of forecasts which turn out to be wrong. They have nothing else to

:12:04.:12:09.

go on. The Treasury forecast is to be wrong. No doubt the OBR forecast

:12:10.:12:14.

will prove not to be exact. As you say, they admitted that they are

:12:15.:12:17.

navigating through fog at the moment. But he also added that it

:12:18.:12:22.

was fog caused by Brexit. So Brexit, even if you accept that these

:12:23.:12:26.

forecasts might be wrong, is causing such a level of uncertainty. He put

:12:27.:12:33.

the figure at 60 billion. That could come to haunt him. He hasn't got a

:12:34.:12:44.

clue. He admitted it. He said, Parliament mandates me to come up

:12:45.:12:47.

with something, so I am going to give you a number. But I wouldn't

:12:48.:12:51.

trust it if I were you, he basically said. I agree with you. The man who

:12:52.:12:56.

borrowed 122 billion more off the back of a coin toss was Philip

:12:57.:12:59.

Hammond. It begs the question, what does that say about the confidence

:13:00.:13:03.

Philip Hammond has in his own government's renegotiation? Not a

:13:04.:13:10.

huge amount. I agree. Philip Hammond quoted the OBR figures. He basically

:13:11.:13:14.

said, this is uncertain and it looks bad, and on we go with it. It is a

:13:15.:13:19.

very interesting situation, he said. He was for Remain and he works in a

:13:20.:13:24.

department which regards it as a disaster, whatever everyone else

:13:25.:13:29.

thinks. I have just been told we are covering the by-election. We are

:13:30.:13:33.

part of the constitution. Jo Coburn will have more

:13:34.:13:34.

Daily Politics tomorrow And I'll be back here on BBC One

:13:35.:13:36.

next Sunday at 11. Remember - if it's Sunday,

:13:37.:13:40.

it's the Sunday Politics. to signify the Africans

:13:41.:14:14.

who were here.

:14:15.:14:19.

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