04/05/2014 Sunday Politics South

Morning, folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. Walls are being

re-painted in Belfast as Gerry Adams begins his fourth day in police

custody in connection with one of the most brutal and shocking murders

of the Troubles. That's our top story.

He may have got egg on his face this week but Nigel Farage is a serious

electoral threat in this month's elections. I'll ask the Conservative

Party Chairman Grant Shapps how worried he is.

And we're on the trail of Nick Clegg. You were voted the best

In the South: Independents took over likely to be a good

In the South: Independents took over running the Isle of Wight council a

year ago ` has it been 12 months of a new kind of politics, or more like

herding cats? and independence. We have a table

full of Euro candidates here to debate what it means for London.

And with me, as always, the best and the brightest political panel in the

business - Nick Watt, Helen Lewis and Janan Ganesh. They'll be

throwing metaphorical rotten eggs into the twittersphere.

First this morning - Gerry Adams, President of Sinn Fein, has spent a

fourth night in police custody after he was arrested in connection with

the killing of Jean McConville more than 40 years ago. Sinn Fein has

claimed that the arrest is politically motivated coming, as it

does, during local and European election campaigns. Northern

Ireland's deputy first minister, Martin McGuinness, has indicated he

might review the party's support for policing in the province if Gerry

Adams is charged. The Jean McConville murder was one of the

most notorious cases of the Troubles.

The widowed mother of ten was kidnapped from her home in December

1972, never to be seen alive again. The IRA denied involvement but in

1999 admitted it had murdered her and several others, known as the

Disappeared. Before his death, the former IRA commander Brendan Hughes

pointed the finger at Gerry Adams, claiming:

In April this year, either Bell was charged with aiding and abetting the

murder. -- Ivor Bell. Gerry Adams has always insisted he is innocent

of any part in the abduction and killing all burial of Mrs

McConville. We were hoping to speak to the

Northern Ireland Secretary, Theresa Villiers, but having agreed to do an

interview with us this morning, she pulled out. But we are joined from

Belfast by Sinn Fein's Alex Maskey. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. And

the police just doing their job by questioning Gerry Adams? Gerry Adams

said publicly some time ago that he was available to speak to the

police, but that is not what this is about at the moment, because what we

have here is clearly evidence in our mind of political interference in

what should be due process. Gerry Adams made it clear some time ago he

wanted to speak to the police, it was available at any time, and yet

that request was not taken up until three weeks into an election and we

believe that was deliberately orchestrated by a small number of

people. What evidence can you present this morning that proves

that claim? The direct circumstances Gerry Adams finds himself in at the

moment, take that in stark contrast when they have dealt with members of

the British Army for instance... That is just circumstantial. The

PSNI know that the soldiers involved in that and a number of other

high-profile killings of citizens here, and not one of those people

has been arrested. In fact any of the people who were interviewed were

interviewed by request. There was a stark contrast, in terms of how they

have dealt with the British military involving state killings. We haven't

got too much time. Sinn Fein said it would review its support for the

PSNI if Gerry Adams is charged. That sounds like political interference

in the police process. It's not because we have a clear mandate from

the people who elect us. Policing has been an important part of the

peace process here for many years, Sinn Fein plays an important role in

local policing partnerships. We negotiate to make sure we have

powers transferred here to elected representatives in the north. It is

a long way to go before we have policing highly accountable, and

making sure they deliver a very impartial service. How will he react

if Gerry Adams is charged? I am still trying to get a clear answer.

If Gerry Adams is charged, will you withdraw support for the Northern

Ireland police service? We view this as a serious situation and a serious

ongoing situation and we will monitor how this pans out. We have a

very important role to play to support the police service here. We

have done consistently, worked with them on a daily basis, but we will

not accept political interference by a small number of people in the

police who are undermining the police. We will not accept political

policing. If there was evidence, and I emphasise the word if, because we

have seen none, but if there were evidence to justify Gerry Adams

being charged, why should he not be charged? It is my understanding from

the family of Gerry Adams that there has not been a single shred of

evidence put forward. I understand that, but if there was evidence, why

should he not be charged? You put that caveat yourself and then you

expect me to speculate, there is no way I will do that. The fact of the

matter is there hasn't been one single shred of evidence put to

Gerry Adams in the last few days, in fact what has been put to him is a

range of issues of newspaper cuttings, books, statements made

from people, including from people who didn't want their statements

released until they have died. who didn't want their statements

was charged, again I emphasise the word if, does the police process

fall apart? The police process is a fragile entity, it requires work and

we have been saying this publicly and privately with the Irish and

British and privately with the Irish and

process has to be nurtured and developed. We are not out of the

woods yet. From a Republican point of view we have been working flat

out. I just wanted a quick answer to my question, is a yes or no? What

question I asking me? Is the peace process in jeopardy? It is fragile

and I am not going to have words put into my mouth but I don't want to

use. It has to be worked out and nurtured. Thank you for joining us.

Nick Watt, you were a Northern Ireland correspondent like myself in

days gone by. Where is this going to go? It shows how challenging the

peace process is because on the one hand you have the unspeakable pain

of the McConville family, but you also have the danger of not having

mechanisms to deal with the past. South Africa is a good example, you

have to have some mechanism to deal with the past because if you don't,

you are going to have, as Sinn Fein have now, someone in a police cell

but you don't have the arrests of the Bloody Sunday soldiers.

Paramilitary prisoners were released after two years... We have seen no

action against somebody accused of the Hyde Park bombings, it is not a

one-way street. We have the decommissioning of IRA weapons by

the IRA, therefore destroying crucial evidence. You have these

inconsistencies because you don't have an mechanism for dealing with

the past, but doing that is really difficult because of the pain of

real people. Don't you get a feeling that here in London they are hoping

he will not be charged? Definitely because it would be nice if

everything went away, but the civil case of the family is taken out of

the hands of the police. You can see here a real failure in Westminster

to see this as anything other than settled. David Cameron we know sees

himself as a chairman. I was speaking to a friend in Northern

Ireland who said he has never met Gerry Adams and I think this is very

revealing. They consider this as a settled issue that will not trouble

Westminster again. It would be, but the relatives of the disappeared

don't want it to be settled. This points to the reality that the

Belfast agreement probably had to be done, but the moral price at which

it was purchased was far greater than we were willing to admit during

the euphoria. For a country that prides itself by the rule of law to

tolerate the early release of prisoners and former pal and

military -- paramilitaries, I think was a very serious matter. As for

the PSNI, it only exists because its predecessor failed to command the

confidence of the nationalist community. It is a very big deal if

even the PSNI ends up falling into the same trap. We have to is leave

it there I'm afraid. It was the Conservative's local election

campaign launch on Friday, and what did David Cameron focus on? Burning

local issues like the state of our roads, rubbish collection or care of

the elderly? No. It was Europe. The Prime Minister re-iterated again his

promise of an in-out referendum on our membership of the EU in 2017.

And it's being reported this morning that he will share a platform with

Nigel Farage in a pre-general election debate. Here's what the

UKIP leader had to say about the issue when he was on the Marr Show

this morning with Ed Miliband. David Cameron very often makes these vague

promises, then doesn't deliver afterwards. I don't think he has any

intention of allowing me into any of these debates. Perhaps Ed Miliband

wants to debate? We have got to have the TV debates as we did join the

last general election. I think David Cameron is doing everything he can

to wriggle out of them. It is up to the broadcasters but whether they

invite Nigel. My main desire is that the debates go ahead. We are joined

now by Grant Shapps. Will he be included? The debates were not

without problems, they took place during the campaign period and

disrupted the flow of the campaign, taking it out of the regions, people

getting to speak to the leaders so a longer period for that would be

helpful. I think they are good idea and they should go ahead, but all of

the negotiation about who is involved is yet to happen. So it is

not a done deal that Nigel Farage will be included? That needs to be

negotiated with the TV companies. The Conservatives believe we should

have debates, but exactly the format and the timing, all of the -- that

will be debated in the autumn, but first we have European elections,

the Queen 's speech and a Scottish referendum. The local election

campaign was launched on Friday. Why did you talk more about Europe than

local councils? Both are important. The local elections are critically

important for people, their local services. It is easy to forget, for

example, that the council tax has been largely frozen since this

Government came to power, a big contrast to Dublin under the

previous Labour government. So why did you go on and on about Europe?

Let me show you the poster used to launch your local election campaign.

There it is, and in-out referendum on Europe, the day of the local

elections, where is the word local? Is it in small print? I hear what

you're saying, I am happy to be here to talk about the local elections.

But you are right, they are on the same day, and not many people know

that only by voting conservative can you get an in-out referendum. --

Conservative. UKIP cannot deliver, we can, it is the same date, so

people... This was the launch of the local election campaign. Why does

the Prime Minister have to keep on promising something he has already

promised? The actual referendum would be in 2017. He promised it

before, he keeps repeating it because he knows people don't really

trust him. I think it is a question of the fact that, actually, unless

you remind people that the pledges there, that the only way to get an

in-out referendum is to vote for it, this is a critical moment at

which we need people to vote for that referendum if they want it. It

is not the case, as I saw this morning, being said by Nigel Farage,

that a referendum was promised before and not delivered. There was

no referendum in the last manifesto. There will be in the next one. There

was a cast-iron guarantee, in the Sun in 2006. Let's just clear that

up... Once the Lisbon Treaty... In the Sun article, he said, we will

have a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty. Clearly, because that treaty

had been passed before the general election, it is difficult to have a

referendum on something in the past. We joined Europe in the 1970s,

having a referendum on that! Look, that is about the future. Our

relationship with Europe is absolutely critical. Most people in

this country feel, I was not old enough to vote in that referendum,

most of those who voted, they voted for a Common Market, that is not

what we have got. We want to continue the work we have been doing

in the EU Budget, what did UKIP do? They voted against it. We want more

of those powers brought home, and we will put it to a referendum, and

people will have to vote Conservative to get it. We have been

looking at new research, almost two thirds of Conservative members are

considering voting for UKIP, almost two thirds. I have a simple message

here, which is this. If you vote for UKIP... Can we have it up? 30% are

likely, 30% are possible. That is why it is important we are making

these arguments. If you vote for UKIP, you are voting to take us

further away from returning powers to this country, further from a

referendum. It is support for Ed Miliband becoming Prime Minister,

and he will do exactly what Labour have always done - hand away powers,

and away the rebate for nothing in return, giving Europe even more so

over the day-to-day affairs in Britain. Why are so many people

considering voting UKIP? It is to hold your feet to the fire, they do

not trust you on a referendum, so they will vote UKIP to force you to

tap in your line. We have a very tough line. If I had said four years

ago that this government would manage to cut the overall EU

budget, would take us out of the bailout fund that Labour got us

into, passing a law that no more powers can go to Europe without a

referendum, if I had said that, people would say, I do not believe

it will happen. Not only have we done these things, we are promising

and in-out referendum, and the only way to get it is to vote

Conservative. Nigel Farage has said, we can't change anything in

Europe, and it is no wonder that the president of the European Commission

has said, we love having these UKIP MEPs, because they don't turn up and

vote, apart from when they vote against the cut in the budget. It

goes beyond UKIP in your party, because this research also showed

that those Conservative members most likely to vote for UKIP, they said

they do not feel valued or respected by their own leadership, and they

regard David Cameron as ideological eat more remote from them than UKIP.

What I would say is look at that list... Let me take that step

further. What people need our series solutions to serious problems. When

people vote for a UKIP MEP, I will say, which one of the 40% of the

MEPs who got in for UKIP last time are you voting for, the ones above

left or defected, the ones have gone to jail? 40% have ended up not

delivering. People have a right to know what to expect when they vote

in these elections. They can look at our record at home, and this goes to

the point you have raised about what we have done in Britain to get this

economy back on track, recover from Labour's recession. We are prepared

to take those decisions in Europe as well. Presumably, active

Conservative members, they know that, so why do they not feel valued

by the leadership? I spend time going up and down the country

meeting Conservative members, and they are on the doorstep, last

weekend 150 out in Enfield campaigning for the European and

local elections... Why are they keen on UKIP? When I meet somebody who

says that, not necessarily a member... Have you met members of

say they will vote UKIP? No, but a vote for UKIP is... Do not do it,

you will end up with Labour having more control, handing away powers to

Europe. 51-year-old meeting members who say they will vote UKIP, you

must be out of touch. -- if you are not meeting members. Some of your

members are thinking of voting UKIP. I spend huge amount of time

travelling around, I just told you about this action day in Enfield,

where we had an enormous turnout. Those members were on the doorsteps

pointing out that you can only get reform in Europe by voting

Conservative. Labour and the Lib Dems will not deliver, UKIP can't,

Conservatives will. You have not got that message across, because a

YouGov poll shows, on Europe, who has the best policies? Tories 18%,

Labour 19%, UKIP 27%. On the economy, Tories 27%, Labour 23, UKIP

4. Why don't you shut up about Europe and talk about the economy?

Look, on the 27th of May, we have European elections, as well as local

elections. If I don't talk about the European elections, you would say

what you said at the beginning about not talking about the local

elections! These are serious elections, and the point I am tried

to make is that the issues at stake are not peripheral, they are not

unimportant. Our MEPs have been battling to cut red tape from a

European level on small businesses, the same thing this government has

been doing for small businesses domestic league, where for example

every small business owner watching this show knows they have got ?2000

back in employment announced on national insurance contributions. We

are doing it at home, we are doing it in Europe, and it is important to

tie that together. Ireland that Mr Cameron saying, you should stop

banging on about Europe... -- I remember. This is before the last

general election, as in days for the Lib Dems, 18%. Even then, you didn't

win the election, and now you are only three or four points ahead, it

doesn't look good for you, does it? Even then, the poll did not turn out

to be what it was on the day. No, that is what happens, that is the

voting intentions now! You are in a worse position than a year before

the last election, which you didn't win. We are almost proving the point

that you can take a clip at any moment in time, not sounding like a

politician, but the only poll that matters is on the day. In just over

a year's time, people will have a completely different picture to look

at than these opinion polls. We have an economy from being a basket

case, the great Labour recession knocking 7% of this economy, hurting

every family, to a point where we the fastest-growing economy in the

developed world. In a year's time, I hope people will see that we are the

people who've taken the difficult decisions, got the economy to the

right place, more security for you and your family. Do not give the car

keys back to the people who crashed it in the first place. If I had a

pound for every time I have heard that! It is clearly not getting

through. On the Pfizer attempted of AstraZeneca, Mr Miliband called this

morning for a tougher public interest test such big takeovers. Do

you agree with that or not? Let me be absolutely clear, if there is any

kind of joining, we are in favour of British jobs, British aren't deep,

expanding our pharmaceutical sector. -- R But what Mr Mallon and wants

to do with rent caps, he is anti-business. -- Mr Miliband. He

wants to take us back to the bad old those. -- bad old days. Should there

be a bigger public interest test? We have seen some takeovers that people

have criticised, but others, like Bentley, Land Rover, which have been

very successful. Should there be a tougher test?! We will have tests

that ensured this get-together becomes a great Anglo-American

project, or it doesn't happen, but the Miliband approach is simply to

be anti-business, anti-jobs and anti-job security. Grant Shapps,

thank you. A challenging week for the Liberal

Democrats with a local election campaign overshadowed by another row

with the Conservatives about knife crime. Adam has spent the day with

Nick Clegg on the campaign trail. How nice! Nick Clegg is taking me on

a political mini break to the Cotswolds. Yes, we are getting the

train. He wants to highlight what his party is doing in local

government, and a personal passion of his in Europe. Graham Watson, the

Lib Dem MEP for the south-west, has been running a campaign to have

prunes recognised as a laxative. Is that Lib Dems battling for Britain

in Europe? It is not our front page manifesto commitment! It is one of

many things that Graham does, he does many other things. In fact, he

is a good example of an MEP who took a pioneering role, for instance, in

making sure... There is the proven world, but also the crime-fighting

role. -- prune. He has done work to make sure that when British

criminals flee justice, we can bring them back. And he has promoted

prunes! First stop, a gorgeous country pub, but it turns out

everyone is a journalist or a very on message activist. Dark days,

being a Lib Dem in the last few years? Strangely not. If you find

you are a Lib Dem deep down, you do not get that disheartened, because

you know that, locally, you are doing so well for the people that

you live next door to that, actually, I find I am almost

impervious to what happens on a national level. I am mayor of

Cirencester. Have you taken any leadership lessons from Nick Clegg,

inspiring new in your leadership of Cirencester? I think what he has

demonstrated his patience. It has been a tough time, he has taken a

lot of flak, and as the mayor of a town, lots of people agree with you

and a fair few don't. You are a full on mayor, he is just a Deputy Prime

Minister, do you outrank him? I don't think so, he is in government,

I am not. So our there any normal people in here? We are from

Swindon, you cannot get more abnormal. Are you a big fan of his?

No! What has he done wrong? I don't believe in his views at all. Where

has he got to? Nigel Farage would have had a pint! At this time in the

morning a copy was more appropriate. I have no time for a drink of any

kind, because now we are off to look at a local traffic blackspot. This

is amazing, like a Lib Dem election leaflet brought to life, Lib Dems

pointing at a road. High-vis jackets! Next we had to giggle full

bath, but there will be no Regency sightseeing for us, oh no, Nick is

taking us to an abandoned wilderness. We have just had a

health and safety briefing, we have been told to look out for

dive-bombing seagulls and an angry fox. That is the sort of thing Nick

Clegg has to put up with. He wants to talk about the economy but he has

to dodge the day's beat new story, letters leaked by a Tory suggesting

that Lib Dems are soft on knife crime. Isn't that a new kind of

warfare? I just think it is silly. They may think they are clever by

catching some headlines but they are not helping people who worry about

knife crime, like I do. We work together... Just like the

Coalition! This is a co-working space where different businesses

share the same office. My time with the Deputy Prime Minister is drawing

to a close. We haven't talked about the most important story of the

week, that you were voted the best looking party leader and the most

likely to be a good cook. Right, this is news to me and I can

guarantee you that my scepticism of opinion polls has just been

confirmed. Just as well because the more serious polls don't look great

for him or his party. Goodbye, and thanks for the offer of a ride

home! He is still walking. Malcolm Bruce

joins us now. According to Lib Dem briefing documents, you are likely

to choose -- lose a big chunk of your MEPs. If you lose a lot, what

would that say about a party that boasts of its pro-Europe

credentials? It would be disappointing because we have the

most hard-working MEPs. The worry that we have is that people think

the European Parliament is not important but it takes decisions

that affect us. They would be disappointing for Britain as well as

the Liberal Democrats. Isn't the problem that the more you bang on

about your pro-European credentials, the more you slip in the polls? I do

think so, we have two weeks to go and we are campaigning extremely

hard. You are forced in the polls. I can tell you there are people out

there who do believe Britain should stay in the EU and they are worried

that other parties will take us out. The Liberal Democrats are clear, we

want to stay in, we will work for reform and do it effectively. If you

lose the Liberal Democrats, Britain's influence in Europe will

be weakened. Your track record in Europe shows you have been

spectacularly wrong again and again. In your 2009 manifesto you said the

European Central Bank and the euro have been tried and tested over ten

years providing a clear picture of the benefits of Eurozone membership

and that proved to be nonsense. It was nonsense everywhere. Every

developed bank in the world was tried and tested and failed. Europe

may not be perfect, but the question people have to decide is if we are

going to leave Europe and be isolated on RM, or use our influence

to reform it from inside. We have allies, you work with them, that is

something the Lib Dems do better than any other parties. Your 2004

manifesto, you claim that being outside the euro would lead to job

losses and reduced prosperity. You were just plain wrong, weren't you?

Yes, but the reason is that to some extent the euro did not observe any

rules and regulations when it was set up. That is why we never

recommended Britain should join at the outset because the criteria had

not been met. In 2001 Nick Clegg was writing to the Financial Times...

Your track record is important. He wrote that the Tisch monetary policy

is not all it is cracked up to be. Britain would gain greater control

over its affairs by joining the euro. How wrong can he be? We have

always argued that the currency had to abide by strict criteria. It

hasn't done so and that is one of the reasons it has failed. We

recognise there is no future for Britain joining the euro and we are

not advocating it. Lets put your 2010 manifesto on the screen. I

didn't say it was not our long-term interest. If Europe succeeds as an

entity, if the euro becomes one of the world leading currencies, there

will come a point when it may be justified. In the circumstances we

are in the moment, there is no recommended timescale. Let's get

this right. Despite the Eurozone crisis which has cost millions of

jobs, countries that were teetering on the brink of bankruptcy, the

Eurozone now facing stagnation and some countries on the brink of

deflation, you still won't rule out Britain joining? We are ruling it

out in the foreseeable future. You can miss the point that we are

working as a coalition partner in government that has secured recovery

for the UK, and working as Liberal Democrats in the parliament that

have cut back the European budget in cooperation with others. What would

the world look like if it were right for Britain to join the euro? You

have 27 states at the moment, with too many countries still struggling

to meet the criteria so until you have a strong and cohesive enough

single Eurozone in which all the countries can meet that criteria,

Britain is better off out. So a more centralised Eurozone, that is what

you would like Britain to join? No, because it can only happen by

consent. Any circumstances in which any further powers would be

transferred from the UK to the EU, we would support a referendum. You

have just said that for the Eurozone to work, it has to be more

centralised and you said if that happens, that is what Britain would

join. I didn't say that, I said it would require the consent of all

member states to agree to the criteria. We certainly do not

envisage joining in the foreseeable future. Since you are the proud

party of in, why weren't you just give us a referendum on in or out?

Because it has to have a context. What David Cameron is doing is

dangerous because I think the major players like Britain and France are

not keen on the idea of being bullied into reforms on the

instigation of just one member state which is threatening possibility to

withdraw. They will have to agree to rules... Just have it now. Do you

want in or out? To have a referendum against no background is to put it

out of context. We are in the middle of a crisis, a year away from the

general election. We have made it clear... You said we are in the

middle of the Eurozone crisis? So we are not in the middle of it? What's

the middle? The reality is that the Western world has gone through a

deep crisis. The UK is coming out of it, the Eurozone is coming out of

it. Greece have been able to borrow on the markets in recent weeks which

is a sign of success. It is in our interest is the Eurozone succeeds

and recovers and we should be part of it but not necessarily on the

same conditions as everyone else. The Liberal Democrats work with

others to deliver Britain's interests and if they are not there,

their interests will be undermined. You are watching Sunday Politics. We

Welcome to Sunday Politics South ` now. Coming

Welcome to Sunday Politics South ` my name's Peter Henley. On today's

show the independent Isle of Wight. A year after Independents took over

the running of the council, have we seen a new kind of politics

emerging, or have the pressures of governing wiped the bloom off the

independent rose? More on that shortly. First let's meet the two

politicians who'll be with me for the next twenty minutes. Tony Page

is the Labour Deputy Leader of Reading Borough Council, and Conor

Burns is the Conservative MP for Bournemouth West. And we start today

with a bit of a gamble. This week the government announced new

planning powers for local authorities to control the spread of

betting shops on the high street. I caught up with the minister

responsible for the decision and asked whether it wasn't all a bit

nanny state. This is a mixture of... You mentioned nanny state about

responsibility to the individuals who have a gambling addiction. The

planning system is more about how do we want our high streets to look and

I want high streets to be a mixture of book shops, cafes, grocery

stores, maybe one betting shop. Joining us now from our Westminster

studio is Peter Craske from the Association of British Bookmakers.

There has been quite a growth, 25% growth and it is suggested it is at

the expense of local retailers. Is that correct question mark there

hasn't been an increase overall, what is true is where we have seen

in town centres big chains or other shops go, some good retail units

have come up with good football. So, betting shops would want to get into

those positions. `` footfall. It is often areas with low income. The

minister said this is pocketing the pay families who cannot afford it.

17% of all betting shops are located in areas classified as highly

deprived, most are not in those areas. They are in leafy suburbs as

well? You will find more betting shops in the centre of Reading or

Bournemouth because they are highly populated areas. I use the phrase

nanny state and this level of addiction seems to trouble the

minister, does it worried industry? Absolutely. There were figures

published showing problem gambling levels are falling but we think one

is too many and we are committed to trying to help those people who have

got into difficulty and preventing it happening through our new code.

Does that involve shops clustering together? Shops will want to compete

but the overall number of shops has not increased over the last ten

years. What about the number of adverts

online, one in 20 TV adverts for betting.

It isn't an issue I can comment on. The issue is subject to public

consultation. This is because it is the online

people, your competitors? Absolutely, a mixture. There are

many gambling products available now in different ways. The advertising

standards agency which sets the rules and the government is

consulting on whether... What to do about the number of adverts.

Conservatives have built themselves as friends of the pub, are you

friends of the betting shop? We are friends of Richard Smith

businesses and we want to see people who enjoy gambling responsibly, I

gamble twice a year at the Grand National. `` responsible

businesses. We see evidence of clustering, estate agents and

building societies and banks are closing and booking shops are coming

in. Bournemouth council passed a motion, they were not saying stop,

they were saying we know the community, we know what is best,

please give us the powers to have the ability to stop and we think

there are too many. Giving local communities and

councils the power to force the gambling companies to apply for

planning permission gives the authority the opportunity to put a

brake on it where they think there are too many.

You speak on this on the Local Government Association.

We welcome the consultation. It isn't retrospective. Where there are

12 now, it is only the 13th or 14th we would be able to control under

these proposals. So, the other point we are concerned about and my

commission is keen to ensure that any proposed changes address a wider

picture `` wider picture for a healthy competitive environment on

the high street which means diversity. I read in the Lytham

Saint and express that the local Federation of Small Businesses are

calling for powers to address the proliferation of charity shops. ``

Lytham Saint Anne is. They are piling in on this consultation

and... Charity shops...

This has got to dress a wider picture. The consultation isn't just

about betting shops, the minister is announcing a consultation about all

of the classes so proliferation of takeaway is, I'm concerned about

that because if you get a row of takeaway is which closed in the day

and open at night they can cause anti`social behaviour in the same

way betting shops might be related to payday loan activities and so we

have to make sure. It is balance.

We have a serious problem. We can have all the consultations we want,

we have the rise of the internet taking traffic for high streets, a

difficult economic period with disposable income falling putting

retailers under pressure. The internet combined with difficult

economic circumstances put the high street under pressure. Some of this

is addressing staff which is outside the power of politicians and

government to legislate. They say some of this is outside the

power of legislation. I agree with both guests, we want a

vibrant high street as much as anyone out. We suffer from online

competition as much as anyone else. We are sitting on the commission

that the council chairs and we want to contribute to work with people

and we have lots of areas around the country where they may have issues

and we want to do that. Nice to hear from you. The Isle of

Wight's a year on from declaring its independence!! Well, sort of. In

last May's local elections a group of independent councillors biffed

the Conservatives out of office. And it seems like "independence fever"

could be catching on the Island ` there was even a short`lived

Independent parliamentary candidate recently. So has it seen the birth

of a new kind of politics? Our Hampshire and Isle of Wight

Political Reporter Jessica Parker's been to find out.

Known for sailing and music festivals and prehistoric finds. It

is England's largest island and the UK most populated parliamentary

constituency. Perhaps the Isle of Wight is less

well known for a recent political sea change. After years of wrestling

between Conservatives and Liberal Democrats, last May a group of

independence took control of the Isle of Wight Council. One year one,

the revolution had extended to selecting an independent

Parliamentary candidate. It is always been part of being an island

that there is a fierce independence by nature and people here. Wendy

Cook stepped down a week after coming under fire for her

drink`driving convictions. Were you surprised at the reaction to a

selection? No, not surprised. I was disappointed it completely

overshadowed anything we wanted to achieve politically and anything I

might have offered to make amends for my behaviour. Wendy says the

convictions followed losing her home in a business deal gone wrong and

three close brief mints. She realises it was something many in

the end could not overlook. `` brief meants. There was a general

disapproving `` this approval which is understandable however there were

two or three isolated incidents which were of such a personal

nature, not directed towards me but committee members of the association

that I felt my staying on would put people at risk. The association that

shows Wendy Cook is not the same as the group of independence running

the council. Some of the Independent councillors are members of the

association. But not the council group leader. Some Isle of Wight

councillors belong to that organisation. I don't, but I will

be. I think by doing that it gives support to other individuals and

residents who may be able to contribute. Confusing? Perhaps but

Ian Stevens says his group is making a difference with investment in

improving school attendance rates. It is leading a group of

independence akin to herding cats, Ian Stevens prefers a different

analogy. A company boardroom, you don't ask anyone their political

leanings or persuasion or even what faith they belong to. What you do is

ask what talent and ideas and policies they can bring forward and

the strengths they can bring, that is what independence brings to the

local authority. The hopes were incredibly high. And I think the

Independent have had a challenge meeting those. Simon Perry runs a

news site. He says the independents won voters on a platform the change.

I think they were elected because there was frustration with the way

the schools are reorganised, there was a frustration at the level of

cuts and the speed of cuts. And a loss of civic amenities. The

Independent said it is uncertain whether it has changed, cats have

continued but they have been called mergers, a change of language. The

island faces some major challenges. Council cuts, struggling education

standards, below average pay and a charge the island struggles to

attract and retain talent. If this is a political revolution, it is a

fairly quiet one. The question follows in any revolution, will it

last? We have many things we want to prove `` improve on and three years

will not be long enough. We want to get into another term and maybe

another. Reading Council, is it run like a company boardroom?

We have our own plans, we submit them every year because we have

elections every year and we are quite transparent about the way we

operate. You have to stick to the policy of

the party. We agree it locally. We expect people to work to the

common agenda but we are transparent about the proposals and that is the

nature of local parties. They bring together people who agree on shared

priorities and look to carry them out. I have some difficulty trying

to understand how a group of independence can really run a local

authority in an effective way because they don't know what the

priorities are until they arrive. Most companies select their

directors on the bases there have been some vetting and interviewing

and some common commitment. I am not sure that happens with

independents. It is not for me to criticise.

They are popular and maybe what people like, the way they like Nigel

Farage is the idea that it is a protest against conventional

politics. What you think? Is there a sense the

political parties are regarded as anti`democratic?

I put this down to the expenses scandal, there is a major detachment

from a large segment of the electorate to traditional party

politics and to some degree the reaction of the election of the

independents is part of the process. I struggle with this

because when you get a group of independents elected forming an

independent group and another association looks for an independent

parliament candidates, that sounds very much like an embryonic

political party. You think they should be more

transparent? You are either independent voted on

a particular issue and you get in to resolve that all you become a

participant in the party political process. The fact one of the

gentleman talked about wanting another term and one after that,

that sounds not like a group resolving one problem, the schooling

is a major problem which led to the election.

They become part of the system. There were difficult choices to

make. The bill to construct the first phase of HS2 had its second

reading in the commons this week ` a large chunk of our region's

Conservative MPs abstained and the Prime Minister rather strangely

managed not to be there at all ` but even so it passed fairly comfortably

because Labour is supporting it. So is that it all done and dusted?

Well, maybe not ` Mike Kerford Byrnes has been campaigning against

it for several years and joins us now from our Oxford studio.

You argue about the compensation needed. Do you accept it is

inevitable? Well, I have not been arguing about

the compensation specifically, it is the whole principle to start with.

Given the second reading has gone through, the emphasis and activity

now is focused on trying to mitigate what will happen during the

construction and subsequently during the operation because unlike the

lucky folk in Reading and Bournemouth, we have to pay for it

and live with it. We have some figures. `` you have

some. Yes, I looked at 2010 and a number

of electors per household, the number in Bournemouth and Reading

and the electors of Bournemouth will contribute ?72 million towards HS2

and the residents of Reading will contribute 150 more million pounds.

You wonder how much infrastructure it can build around that area rather

than somewhere else. You could do a lot with that money.

Firstly, this idea there is ?50 billion floating around we could

spend on something else, the money isn't floating around. We could

spend on something else, the money isn't floating around. We're

borrowing this money. Connect eight of the north of England. The

government have got the argument wrong. It isn't so much about

speed, it is about capacity. The line is full. If we are to have a

national income and policy we need major infrastructure projects. Where

I agree is we need to look at mitigation and some of my colleagues

are doing a formidable job in lobbying the Department for

Transport for effective mitigation. It feels inevitable. 2000 lorries a

day for two years to build the line, one lorry every ten seconds.

It will affect Reading and the South.

We have nearly ?1 billion worth of new stations and investments in

Reading part of a national infrastructure provision and all of

these schemes require substantial planning and delivery times. I agree

with what Connor said. I want a network of high`speed lines across

the whole country, not just north and south.

154 million in Reading. Our buses are the best in the

country. We have the bus company of the year in Reading. That is because

of good forward planning and investment. I don't buy the argument

that you can spend money on something else because this is a

long scheme, we're borrowing for investment which will last 150

years. The payback on this is huge. They don't buy this. They would

rather the money was spent building the railway line.

If they want to build it, perhaps they would also contribute to making

the impact less given the commitment by missed a Glock plan and missed

the Hammond that they will mitigate the impact `` Mr Hammond. Add Mr

MacLachlan. They are proposing to have the

various construction compounds all the way along the line with

continuous overnight lighting. Cha well district where I live, it is

dark. They will have lights on for three years right around the clock

because of the need to keep the compound is clear. The traffic issue

is only just popped up recently. It was announced, the numbers were

published for the first time in November last year. You talk about

2000 lorries a day for two years at one junction of the M4 to. You did

not mention the other areas. You say they should be on the

railways. I agree with the spirit of what he

says, the mitigation measures, we always cheapskate, we never put

enough money into mitigation like the French and Germans and Italians.

You should insist and I will support you that all the spoil and the

equipment comes in by railway. This is a rail project.

I understand what he's doing arguing for his community. Is his job to get

in there and bang on the door and make the argument as to mitigate.

We must leave it there. It is a high`speed discussion. Now our

regular round`up of the political week in the South in 60 seconds.

It should have been a flagship school on the Isle of Wight but

faults in building work at Cowes Enterprise College could cost ?9

million to put right. I can't pretend this is other than a

scandal. The government flood envoy visited Hampshire admitting spending

on flood prevention had fallen but hinting they might be more in the

pipeline. The cheque isn't quite in the post

but we're getting closer to the ink on the cheque.

Cuadrilla face critics at a public meeting in Sussex, they want to

drill for conventional oil, not fracking but local opinion is

against them. It is 5,500 people saying no. It is

a nail in the coffin of local democracy.

Aylesbury town centre could be transformed by a ?15 million

redevelopment. Businesses in the South are still waiting for

superfast broadband, in Portsmouth out of 1000 firms are legible, only

four have taken it up. We sped through the 60 Seconds.

Things don't seem to be happening with this infrastructure. It is

close to an election. Why didn't the spending on high`speed broadband,

the new Sussex Hospital, why now? You could ask that question about 13

years of Labour government or 18 years of Conservative government

before. We make announcements when we are ready. The task of the

Coalition Government is to deal with the economic problems we inherited.

We have growth back. More jobs and encouraging growth figures. The

broadband roll`out is happening. It is happening.

It should be sped up. Broadband is essential to business activity.

Especially in the south with small businesses. It should be given a

higher priority. Thank you for coming in. That is all from us. Back

to Andrew. on our website. That is all we have

got time for this week. Next week, London's local elections.

Welcome back. Now, the Government is not very good at predicting the

future. That's according to a report from a committee of MPs this morning

who say that its Horizon Scanning programme that's supposed to

identify potential threats, risks, emerging issues and opportunities

isn't much good at reading the tea leaves. But can it really be any

worse than our panel? Here they are predicting the future of then

culture secretary Maria Miller before Easter.

Can she survive? I'm getting out of the prediction game after I said

Nick Clegg would win the debates. But I almost think she might. If

there is a big event that moves this off the front pages. David Cameron

will want to keep Maria Miller until at least his summary shuffle. I

think they will get rid of her. I think they will do the decent thing

after exhausting all other options. Maria Miller resigned a few days

later of course! The best and the brightest, when did that slip in?

This week it will be exactly a year until the General Election, so what

better time to get our panel to gaze into their crystal balls again.

What's the outcome of the election in 2015? I'm going to go with the

polls and say Ed Miliband as the Prime Minister. But the polls are

only a snapshot of opinion now, you think they will be the same in a

year? No, I think they will narrow. I think UKIP's vote share will fall.

I think they are currently coasting on a high and that will tailor way

so they won't take as many votes off the Tories. Labour with a majority

or is the largest party. Another liberal Conservative coalition, and

I say that because he is already in touching distance of Labour. I don't

think UKIP will get 15, maybe half of that, and most of the votes they

lose will either not vote at all go to the Tories and that should be

enough to be the biggest party in a hung parliament I don't envisage a

Tory majority. I am also going to go with the polls. For Ed Miliband to

be hoping to win at this stage, he has got to be way ahead in the

polls. Labour needs to be much further ahead if he is going to win

so David Cameron, probably the leader of the largest party. Last

time after the election David Cameron went to the 1922 committee

and announced he was Prime Minister as head of the Coalition. He has

agreed this time he will consult them and it will be much more

difficult for him to get a coalition. People at home have now

concluded there will be a Liberal Democrat landslide! Are we going to

have debates? Yes, probably further away from polling day then last

time. That is the Liberal Democrat point, isn't it? Yes, it sucks all

the life out of the campaign, so the last six weeks will be left to

traditional campaigning. What did you make of this in the Sunday Times

this morning, this two, three, five formula. There should be a Cameron,

Ed Miliband, Nick Clegg debate, then there should be another one with

them and UKIP and the Greens. It might be testing the patience of the

nation to tune into all of those. If you're going to say Nigel Farage

should be there, the Green party should be too. They know that as

soon as you put them on a podium next to them, he looks like he has

equal stature and that is a problem. David Cameron does not want the

debates to happen on the way they happened last time. It is generally

regarded, Lynton Crosby believes they were a disaster for David

Cameron because they allowed Nick Clegg to be the fresh person. He

knows he cannot say no to them so the moment you see David Cameron

suggesting that Caroline Lucas should be in the debate, you know he

is not serious. What he will try to do is have more debates, have them

outside the main part of the general election so that it doesn't

dominate. The problem the David Cameron is that the campaign will be

much longer. It is a five-week campaign so it is quite difficult

for him to say we will only have one debate in that campaign. I think

smother it with love, hopefully it will go to the courts for him and

hopefully they will never happen and he will be delighted. The European

election and the local elections are coming up. The three mainstream

parties are saying it is a flash in the pan, they don't really matter

and so on, but if UKIP comes a strong first, if Labour comes a poor

second and the Tories come a poor third, it will have consequences for

all three, and the Lib Dems come forth or even fish. It will have

consequences and not just in the media but on the ground. One of the

big stories is what will happen to the Lib Dems, they face losing all

of their MEPs. A good result for them is lit -- in the local

elections is losing 250 councillors. These are the most interesting

elections we have had for some time. Are we heading for a Nick

Clegg summer leadership crisis? I think we are heading towards

reversing the clock back to where we were before the Eastleigh

by-election. That quiet and things down for Nick Clegg. If they lose

all their MEPs, and there is a real chance they will, Vince Cable will

be out on manoeuvres because age is not on his side. If he can say Nick

Clegg is a loser and a failure, he will be back. Will the Tories go

into headless chicken mode if they come third? Yes, if UKIP come first

there will not be as much panic as if Labour come first. Is Labour

comes a poor second, will there be some pressure on Ed Miliband to

reopen his attitude to the referendum? I don't think so and my

colleague was talking to Labour sources who said he is absolutely

not going to. That is something you can say definitely about him, he

decides on a course and he sticks to it. There is one potential upside

for David Cameron in a really bad Conservative results, it could

strengthen his hand in the renegotiations of Britain's EU

membership because he doesn't even need to say to Angela Merkel and

Francois Hollande it is there. David Cameron hasn't just been fighting

for his party into the local elections. He also got his knuckles

wrapped by the Speaker, John Bercow, at Prime Minister's Question Time,

for talking for too long. Take a look at this. There is a better

future ahead of us but we must not go backward to the policies that put

us in this mess in the first place. I don't know what they are paying

him, Mr Speaker. Order, order. I haven't finished! In response to

that question, the Prime Minister has finished and he can take it from

me that he has finished. I can't remember a speaker ever speaking to

a Prime Minister like that. Clearly in that case, John Bercow crossed a

line. It is Prime Minister 's questions, he is entitled to answer

the questions. There is really bad blood between those two, going back

a long way. They hate each other and the worrying thing about that was

the look of triumphalism on the speaker's face afterwards. He is a

remarkable, revolutionary speaker who has made the House of Commons

more relevant, he is holding the executive to account, but that look

on his face showed he had crossed the line. Does he survive after the

next election? He has improved the importance of the Commons, is that

enough to keep him in the Speaker 's chair? The most public bit of the

Commons is still the Prime Minister 's questions, and we can conclude

that John Bercow's interventions take more time than any delays he

complains about so I wouldn't be surprised if, in a few years' time,

someone else replaces him. He is quite popular with Labour, is he

not? Yes, he is married to a Labour activist and is notably sympathetic

to Labour but I think this is a difficult situation. David Cameron

also overstepped the line. As soon as the speaker says order, the idea

is that the House was to order and David Cameron pushed him. They are

both trying to score points off each other. We cover Prime Minister 's

questions every week on the daily politics, and there is a danger that

he sees it as an opportunity to do some grandstanding. You slightly

sends his vanity gets the better of him. It is supposed to be Prime

Minister 's questions. At the end of that session, the Speaker read out a

statement from the Chief clerk, and immensely respected figure, saying

he is taking early retirement. It is pretty clear that the reason he has

decided to go early is because he is finding it tricky to maintain a

cordial relationship with the speaker, and the speaker might want

to think about his man management skills. That's all for today. The

Daily Politics will be back on BBC Two at lunchtime from Tuesday

onwards. Remember, it is a bank holiday tomorrow. I'll be back here

at 11am next week. Remember - if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday

Politics.