27/11/2016 Sunday Politics South


27/11/2016

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It's Sunday morning and this is the Sunday Politics.

:00:36.:00:40.

Was Fidel Castro a revolutionary hero or a murderous dictator?

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After the Cuban leader's death, politicians divide over his legacy.

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Can the NHS in England find billions of pounds' worth of efficiency

:00:49.:00:53.

The Shadow Health Secretary joins me live.

:00:54.:00:59.

Should we have a second Brexit referendum on the terms

:01:00.:01:01.

of the eventual withdrawal deal that's struck with the EU?

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Former Lib Dem leader Paddy Ashdown and former Conservative cabinet

:01:07.:01:08.

In the south, the Chancellor is go head-to-head.

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In the south, the Chancellor is promising millions for new

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affordable homes but will it be And with me, Tom Newton Dunn,

:01:19.:01:32.

Isabel Oakeshott and Steve Richards. They'll be tweeting

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throughout the programme Political leaders around the world

:01:35.:01:37.

have been reacting to the news of the death of Fidel Castro,

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the Cuban revolutionary who came to power in 1959 and ushered

:01:45.:01:46.

in a Marxist revolution. Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson

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described the former leader as an "historic if controversial

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figure" and said his death marked Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said

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Castro was "a champion of social justice" who had "seen off

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a lot of US presidents" President-elect Donald Trump

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described the former Cuban leader as a "brutal dictator",

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adding that he hoped his death would begin a new era

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"in which the wonderful Cuban people finally live in the freedom

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they so richly deserve". Meanwhile, the President

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of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker,

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said the controversial leader was "a hero for many"

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but "his legacy will be judged I guess we had worked that out

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ourselves. What do you make of the reactions so far across the

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political divide? Predictable. And I noticed that Jeremy Corbyn has come

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in for criticism for his tribute to Castro. But I think it was the right

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thing for him to do. We all know he was an admirer. He could have sat

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there for eight hours in his house, agonising over some bland statement

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which didn't alienate the many people who want to wade into

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attacked Castro. It would have been inauthentic and would have just

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added to the sort of mainstream consensus, and I think he was right

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to say what he believed in this respect. Elsewhere, it has been

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wholly predictable that there would be this device, because he divided

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opinion in such an emotive way. Steve, I take your point about

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authenticity and it might have looked a bit lame for Jeremy Corbyn

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to pretend that he had no affection for Fidel Castro at all, but do you

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think he made a bit of an error dismissing Castro's record, the

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negative side of it as just a floor? He could have acknowledged in more

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elaborate terms the huge costs. He wanted to go on about the health and

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education, which if you actually look up the indices on that, they

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are good relative to other countries. But they have come at

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such a huge cost. He was not a champion of criminal justice. If he

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had done that, it would have been utterly inauthentic. He doesn't

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believe it. And he would have thought there would be many other

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people focusing on all the epic failings. So he focused on what he

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believed. There are times when Corbyn's prominence in the media

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world now as leader widens the debate in an interesting and

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important way. I am not aware of any criticisms that Mr Corbyn has ever

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announced about Mr Castro. There were four words in his statement

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yesterday which is spin doctor would have forced him to say, for all his

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flaws. He was on this Cuban solidarity committee, which didn't

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exist to criticise Castro. It existed to help protect Castro from

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those, particularly the Americans, who were trying to undermine him.

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And Corbyn made a big deal yesterday saying he has always called out

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human rights abuses all over the world. But he said that in general,

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I call out human rights abuses. He never said, I have called out human

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rights abuses in Cuba. In the weeks ahead, more will come out about what

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these human rights abuses were. The lid will come off what was actually

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happening. Some well authenticated stories are pretty horrendous. I was

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speaking to a journalist who was working there in the 1990s, who gave

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me vivid examples of that, and there will be more to come. I still go

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back to, when a major figure diet and you are a leader who has admired

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but major figure, you have to say it. That is the trap he has fallen

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into. He has proved every criticism that he is a duck old ideologue. But

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he is not the only one. Prime Minister Trudeau was so if uses that

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I wondered if they were going to open up a book of condolences. I

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think it reinforces Corbyn's failing brand. It may be authentic, but

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authentic isn't working for him. When I was driving, I heard Trevor

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Phillips, who is a Blairite, saying the record was mixed and there were

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a lot of things to admire as well as all the terrible things. So it is

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quite nuanced. But if you are a leader issuing a sound bite, there

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is no space for new ones. You either decide to go for the consensus,

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which is to set up on the whole, it was a brutal dictatorship. Or you

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say, here is an extraordinary figure worthy of admiration. In my view, he

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was right to say what he believed. There was still a dilemma for the

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British government over who they sent to the funeral. Do they sent

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nobody, do they say and Boris Johnson as a post-ironic statement?

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There is now a post-Castro Cuba to deal with. Trump was quite

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diplomatic about post-Castro Cuba. And Boris Johnson's statement was

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restrained. The thing about Mr Castro was the longevity, 50 years

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of keeping Marxism on the island. That was what made it so

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fascinating. Before the last election,

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George Osborne promised the NHS in England a real-terms funding

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boost of ?8 billion per year by 2020 on the understanding that NHS bosses

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would also find ?22 billion worth Since last autumn, NHS managers have

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been drawing up what they're calling "Sustainability and Transformation

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Plans" to make these savings, but some of the proposals

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are already running into local opposition, while Labour say

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they amount to huge cuts to the NHS. Help is on the way for an elderly

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person in need in Hertfordshire. But east of England ambulance

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call operators they're sending an early

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intervention vehicle with a council-employed occupational

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therapist on board. It's being piloted here

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for over 65s with When they arrive, a paramedic judges

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if the patient can be treated immediately at home

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without a trip to hospital. Around 80% of patients have

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been treated this way, taking the strain off

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urgently-needed hospital beds, So the early intervention team has

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assessed the patient and decided The key to successful integration

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for Hertfordshire being able to collaboratively look at how

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we use our resources, to have pooled budgets,

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to allow us to understand where spend is, and to let us make

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conscientious decisions about how best to use that money,

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to come up with ideas to problems that sit between our organisations,

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to look at things collaboratively. This Hertfordshire hospital is also

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a good example of how You won't find an A unit

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or overnight beds here any more. The closest ones are 20 minutes

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down the road. What's left is nurse-led care

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in an NHS-built hospital. Despite a politically toxic change,

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this reconfiguration went through after broad public

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and political consultation with hospital clinicians

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and GPs on board. It's a notable achievement that's

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surely of interest to 60% of NHS trusts in England that reported

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a deficit at the end of September. It's not just here that the NHS

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needs to save money and provide The Government is going to pour

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in an extra ?8 billion into the NHS in England, but it has

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demanded ?22 billion worth of efficiencies

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across the country. In order to deliver that,

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the NHS has created 44 health and care partnerships,

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and each one will provide a sustainability and transformation

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plan, or STP, to integrate care, provide better services

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and save money. So far, 33 of these 44 regional

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plans, drawn up by senior people in the health service

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and local government, The NHS has been through five years

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of severely constrained spending growth, and there are another 4-5

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years on the way at least. STPs themselves are an attempt

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to deal in a planned way But with plans to close some A

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units and reduce the number of hospital beds, there's likely

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to be a tough political battle ahead, with many MPs already up

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in arms about proposed This Tory backbencher is concerned

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about the local plans for his I wouldn't call it an efficiency

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if you are proposing to close all of the beds which are currently

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provided for those coming out of the acute sector

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who are elderly and looking That's not a cut, it's not

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an efficiency saving, All 44 STPs should be

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published in a month's time, But even before that,

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they dominated this week's PMQs. The Government's sustainability

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and transformation plans for the National Health Service hide

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?22 billion of cuts. The National Health Service

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is indeed looking for savings within the NHS, which will be

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reinvested in the NHS. There will be no escape from angry

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MPs for the Health Secretary either. Well, I have spoken to the Secretary

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of State just this week about the importance of community

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hospitals in general, These are proposals

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out to consultation. What could happen if these

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plans get blocked? If STPs cannot be made to work,

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the planned changes don't come to pass, then the NHS will see over

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time a sort of unplanned deterioration and services becoming

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unstable and service The NHS barely featured in this

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week's Autumn Statement but the Prime Minister insisted

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beforehand that STPs are in the interests

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of local people. Her Government's support will now be

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critical for NHS England to push through these

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controversial regional plans, which will soon face

:13:07.:13:08.

public scrutiny. We did ask the Department

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of Health for an interview, I've been joined by

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the Shadow Health Secretary, Do you accept that the NHS is

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capable of making ?22 billion of efficiency savings? Well, we are

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very sceptical, as are number of independent organisations about the

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ability of the NHS to find 22 billion of efficiencies without that

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affecting front line care. When you drill down into the 22 billion,

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based on the information we have been given, and there hasn't been

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much information, we can see that some of it will come from cutting

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the budget which go to community pharmacies, which could lead,

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according to ministers, to 3000 pharmacies closing, which we believe

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will increase demands on A and GPs, and also that a lot of these

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changes which are being proposed, which was the focus of the package,

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we think will mean service cuts at a local level. Do they? The chief

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executive of NHS England says these efficiency plans are "Incredibly

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important". He used to work from Labour. The independent King's Fund

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calls them "The best hope to improve health and care services. There is

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no plan B". On the sustainable transformation plans, which will be

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across England to link up physical health, mental health and social

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care, for those services to collaborate more closely together

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and move beyond the fragmented system we have at the moment is

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important. It seems that the ground has shifted. It has moved into

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filling financial gaps. As we know, the NHS is going through the biggest

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financial squeeze in its history. By 2018, per head spending on the NHS

:15:12.:15:14.

will be falling. If you want to redesign services for the long term

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in a local area, you need to put the money in. So of course, getting

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these services working better together and having a greater

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strategic oversight, which we would have had if we had not got rid of

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strategic health authority is in the last Parliament. But this is not an

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attempt to save 22 billion, this is an attempt to spend 22 billion more

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successfully, don't you accept that? Simon Stevens said we need 8

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billion, and we need to find 22 billion of savings. You have to

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spend 22 billion more efficiently. But the Government have not given

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that 8 billion to the NHS which they said they would. They said they

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would do it by 2020. But they have changed the definitions of spending

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so NHS England will get 8 billion by 2020, but they have cut the public

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health budgets by about 4 million by 20 20. The budget that going to

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initiatives to tackle sexually transmitted diseases, to tackle

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smoking have been cut back but the commissioning of things like school

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nurses and health visitors have been cut back as well. Simon Stevens said

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he can only deliver that five-year project if there is a radical

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upgrade in public health, which the Government have failed on, and if we

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deal with social care, and this week there was an... I understand that,

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but if you don't think the efficiency drive can free up 22

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billion to take us to 30 billion by 2020, where would you get the money

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from? I have been in this post now for five or six weeks and I want to

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have a big consultation with everybody who works in the health

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sector, as well as patients, carers and families. Though you don't know?

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I think it would be surprised if I had an arbitrary figure this soon

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into the job. Your party said they expected election of spring by this

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year, you need to have some idea by now, you inherited a portfolio from

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Diane Abbott, did she have no idea? To govern is to make choices and we

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would make different choices. The budget last year scored billions of

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giveaways in things like co-operating -- corporation tax.

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What I do want to do... Is work on a plan and the general election,

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whenever it comes, next year or in 2020 or in between, to have costed

:18:02.:18:07.

plan for the NHS. But your party is committed to balancing the books on

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current spending, that is currently John McDonnell, the Shadow

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Chancellor's position. What we are talking about, this extra 30

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billion, that is essentially current spending so if it doesn't come from

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efficiency savings, where does the money come from? Some of it is also

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capital. Mainly current spending. If you look at the details of the OBR,

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they have switched a million from the capital into revenue. Why -- how

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do you balance spending? That is why we need to have a

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debate. Every time we ask for Labour's policy, we are always told

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me a debate. Surely it is time to give some idea of what you stand

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for? There's huge doubts about the Government 's policy on this. You

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are the opposition, how would you do it? I want to work with John

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McDonnell to find a package to give the NHS the money it needs, but of

:19:13.:19:17.

course our Shadow Chancellor, like any Shadow Chancellor at this stage

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in the cycle, will want to see what the books look like a head of an

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election before making commitments. I am clear that the Labour Party has

:19:29.:19:31.

to go into the next general election with a clear policy to give the NHS

:19:32.:19:34.

the funding it needs because it has been going through the largest

:19:35.:19:38.

financial squeeze in its history. You say Labour will always give the

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NHS the money it needs, that is not a policy, it is a blank cheque. It

:19:44.:19:48.

is an indication of our commitment to the NHS. Under this Conservative

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government, the NHS has been getting a 1% increase. Throughout its

:19:54.:19:56.

history it has usually have about 4%. Under the last Labour government

:19:57.:20:02.

it was getting 4%, before that substantially more. We think the NHS

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should get more but I don't have access to the NHS books in front of

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me. The public thinks there needs to be more money spent on health but

:20:15.:20:19.

they also think that should go cap in hand with the money being more

:20:20.:20:23.

efficiently spent, which is what this efficiency drive is designed to

:20:24.:20:29.

release 22 billion. Do you have an efficiency drive if it is not the

:20:30.:20:34.

Government's one? Of course we agree. We agree the NHS should be

:20:35.:20:40.

more efficient, we want to see productivity increased. Do know how

:20:41.:20:47.

to do that? One way is through investments, maintenance, but there

:20:48.:20:53.

is a 5 million maintenance backlog. One of the most high risk backlogs

:20:54.:21:00.

is something like 730 million. They are going to switch the capital

:21:01.:21:04.

spend into revenue spend. I believe that when you invest in maintenance

:21:05.:21:08.

and capital in the NHS, that contribute to increasing its

:21:09.:21:12.

productivity. You are now talking about 5 billion the maintenance, the

:21:13.:21:15.

chief executive says it needs 30 billion more by 2020 as a minimum so

:21:16.:21:22.

that 35 billion. You want to spend more on social care, another for 5

:21:23.:21:29.

billion on that so we have proper care in the community. By that

:21:30.:21:33.

calculation I'm up to about 40 billion, which is fine, except where

:21:34.:21:37.

do you get the and balance the account at the same time? We will

:21:38.:21:42.

have to come up with a plan for that and that's why I will work with our

:21:43.:21:45.

Shadow Treasury team to come up with that plan when they head into the

:21:46.:21:49.

general election. At the moment we are saying to the NHS, sorry, we are

:21:50.:21:53.

not going to give you the investment, which is why we are

:21:54.:21:59.

seeing patient care deteriorating. The staff are doing incredible

:22:00.:22:06.

things but 180,000 are waiting in A beyond four hours, record levels

:22:07.:22:11.

of people delayed in beds in hospitals because there are not the

:22:12.:22:14.

beds in the community to go to save the NHS needs the investment. We

:22:15.:22:18.

know that and we know the Government's response to that and

:22:19.:22:22.

many think it is inadequate. What I'm trying to get from you is what

:22:23.:22:26.

your response would be and what your reaction will be to these efficiency

:22:27.:22:31.

plans. Your colleague Heidi Alexander, she had your job earlier

:22:32.:22:37.

this year, she warned of the danger of knee jerk blanket opposition to

:22:38.:22:41.

local efficiency plans. Do you agree with that? Yes. So every time a

:22:42.:22:48.

hospital is going to close as a result of this, and some will, it is

:22:49.:22:53.

Labour default position not just going to be we are against it? That

:22:54.:22:58.

is why we are going to judge each of these sustainability plans by a

:22:59.:23:03.

number of yardsticks. We want to see if they have the support of local

:23:04.:23:06.

clinicians, we want to see if they have the support of local

:23:07.:23:09.

authorities because they now have a role in the delivery of health care.

:23:10.:23:13.

We want to see if they make the right decisions for the long-term

:23:14.:23:17.

trends in population for local area. We want to see if they integrate

:23:18.:23:21.

social care and health. If they don't and therefore you will not

:23:22.:23:26.

bank that as an efficiency saving, you will say no, that's not the way

:23:27.:23:32.

to go, you are left then with finding the alternative funding to

:23:33.:23:37.

keep the NHS going. If you are cutting beds, for example the

:23:38.:23:40.

proposal is to cut something like 5000 beds in Derbyshire and if there

:23:41.:23:47.

is the space in the community sector in Derbyshire, that will cause big

:23:48.:23:50.

problems for the NHS in the long term so it is a false economy. An

:23:51.:23:56.

example like that, we would be very sceptical the plans could work.

:23:57.:24:00.

Would it not be honest, given the sums of money involved and your

:24:01.:24:03.

doubts about the efficiency plan, which are shared by many people, to

:24:04.:24:08.

just say, look, among the wealthy nations, we spend a lower proportion

:24:09.:24:14.

of our GDP on health than most of the other countries, European

:24:15.:24:20.

countries included, we need to put up tax if we want a proper NHS.

:24:21.:24:27.

Wouldn't that be honest? I'm not the Shadow Chancellor, I don't make

:24:28.:24:31.

taxation policy. You are tempting me down a particular road by you or I

:24:32.:24:37.

smile. John McDonnell will come up with our taxation policy. We have

:24:38.:24:41.

had an ambition to meet the European average, the way these things are

:24:42.:24:44.

measured have changed since then, but we did have that ambition and

:24:45.:24:50.

for a few years we met it. We need substantial investment in the NHS.

:24:51.:24:54.

Everyone accepts it was extraordinary that there wasn't an

:24:55.:24:57.

extra penny for the NHS in the Autumn Statement this week. And as

:24:58.:25:01.

we go into the general election, whenever it is, we will have a plan

:25:02.:25:07.

for the NHS. Come back and speak to us when you know what you are going

:25:08.:25:09.

to do. Thank you. Theresa May has promised to trigger

:25:10.:25:11.

formal Brexit negotiations before the end of March,

:25:12.:25:14.

but the Prime Minister must wait for the Supreme Court to decide

:25:15.:25:16.

whether parliament must vote If that is the Supreme Court's

:25:17.:25:19.

conclusion, the Liberal Democrats and others in parliament have said

:25:20.:25:22.

they'll demand a second EU referendum on the terms

:25:23.:25:25.

of the eventual Brexit deal before And last week, two former

:25:26.:25:27.

Prime Ministers suggested that the referendum result

:25:28.:25:30.

could be reversed. In an interview with

:25:31.:25:33.

the New Statesman on Thursday, Tony Blair said, "It can be stopped

:25:34.:25:37.

if the British people decide that, having seen what it means,

:25:38.:25:40.

the pain-gain cost-benefit analysis John Major also weighed

:25:41.:25:42.

in, telling a meeting of the National Liberal Club

:25:43.:25:49.

that the terms of Brexit were being dictated

:25:50.:25:51.

by the "tyranny of the majority". He also said there is

:25:52.:25:53.

a "perfectly credible case" That prompted the former

:25:54.:25:55.

Conservative leader Iain Duncan Smith to criticise John

:25:56.:25:59.

Major. He told the BBC, "The idea

:26:00.:26:03.

we delay everything simply because they disagree

:26:04.:26:05.

with the original result does seem to me an absolute

:26:06.:26:07.

dismissal of democracy." So, is there a realistic chance

:26:08.:26:12.

of a second referendum on the terms of whatever Brexit deal Theresa May

:26:13.:26:15.

manages to secure? Lib Dem party leader Tim Farron has

:26:16.:26:20.

said, "We want to respect the will of the people and that

:26:21.:26:24.

means they must have their say in a referendum on the terms

:26:25.:26:27.

of the deal." But the Lib Dems have just eight MPs

:26:28.:26:30.

- they'll need Labour support One ally is former Labour leadership

:26:31.:26:34.

candidate Owen Smith. He backs the idea of

:26:35.:26:39.

a second referendum. But yesterday the party's deputy

:26:40.:26:43.

leader, Tom Watson, said that, "Unlike the Lib Dem Brexit Deniers,

:26:44.:26:46.

we believe in respecting To discuss whether or not

:26:47.:26:48.

there should be a second referendum on the terms of the Brexit deal,

:26:49.:26:56.

I've been joined by two In Somerset is the former Lib Dem

:26:57.:26:59.

leader Paddy Ashdown, and in Shropshire is the former

:27:00.:27:02.

Conservative cabinet minister Paddy Ashdown, let me come to you

:27:03.:27:14.

first. When the British people have spoken, you do what they command,

:27:15.:27:19.

either you believe in democracy or you don't. When democracy speaks, we

:27:20.:27:24.

obey. Your words on the night of the referendum, what's changed? Nothing

:27:25.:27:31.

has changed, Andrew, that's what I said and what I still believe in.

:27:32.:27:34.

The British people have spoken, we will not block Parliament debating

:27:35.:27:42.

the Brexit decision, Article 50, but we will introduce an amendment to

:27:43.:27:48.

say that we need to consult the British people, not about if we go

:27:49.:27:51.

out but what destination we would then achieve. There is a vast

:27:52.:27:59.

difference in ordinary people's lives between the so-called hard

:28:00.:28:03.

Brexit and soft Brexit. Soft Brexit, you remain in the single market, you

:28:04.:28:08.

have to accept and agree on immigration. Hard Brexit you are out

:28:09.:28:13.

of the single market, we have many fewer jobs... Why didn't you say

:28:14.:28:20.

before the referendum there would be a second referendum on the terms?

:28:21.:28:26.

Forgive me, I said it on many occasions, you may not have covered

:28:27.:28:30.

it, Andrew, but that's a different thing. In every speech I gave I said

:28:31.:28:36.

this, and this has proved to be true, since those who recommended

:28:37.:28:39.

Brexit refused to tell us the destination they were recommending,

:28:40.:28:44.

they refuse to give any detail about the destination, if we did vote to

:28:45.:28:48.

go out, it would probably be appropriate to decide which

:28:49.:28:52.

destination, hard Brexit or soft Brexit we go to. They deliberately

:28:53.:28:56.

obscure that because it made it more difficult to argue the case. It

:28:57.:29:00.

wasn't part of the official campaign but let me come to Owen Paterson.

:29:01.:29:06.

What's wrong with a referendum on the terms of the deal? We voted to

:29:07.:29:11.

leave but we don't really know on what conditions we leave so what's

:29:12.:29:15.

wrong with negotiating the deal and putting that deal to the British

:29:16.:29:22.

people? This would be a ridiculous idea, it would be a complete gift to

:29:23.:29:28.

the EU negotiators to go for an impossibly difficult deal because

:29:29.:29:31.

they want to do everything to make sure that Brexit does not go

:29:32.:29:36.

through. This nonsense idea of hard Brexit and soft Brexit, it was never

:29:37.:29:40.

discussed during the referendum campaign. We made it clear we wanted

:29:41.:29:44.

to take back control, that means making our own laws, raising and

:29:45.:29:50.

spending the money agreed by elected politicians, getting control of our

:29:51.:29:53.

own borders back, and getting control of our ability to do trade

:29:54.:29:57.

deals around the world. That was clear at all stages of the

:29:58.:30:03.

referendum. We got 17.4 million votes, the biggest vote in history

:30:04.:30:08.

for any issue, that 52%, 10% more than John Major got and he was happy

:30:09.:30:13.

with his record number of 14 million, more than Tony Blair got,

:30:14.:30:17.

which was 43%, so we have a very clear mandate. Time and again people

:30:18.:30:21.

come up to me and say when are we going to get on with this. The big

:30:22.:30:27.

problem is uncertainty. We want to trigger Article 50, have the

:30:28.:30:30.

negotiation and get to a better place.

:30:31.:30:36.

OK, I need to get a debate going. Paddy Ashdown, the EU doesn't want

:30:37.:30:42.

us to leave. If they knew there was going to be a second referendum,

:30:43.:30:45.

surely there was going to be a second referendum, surely their

:30:46.:30:47.

incentive would be to give us the worst possible deal would vote

:30:48.:30:52.

against it would put us in a ridiculous negotiating position. On

:30:53.:30:55.

the contrary, the government could go and negotiate with the European

:30:56.:31:00.

Union and anyway, the opinion of the European Union is less important

:31:01.:31:02.

than the opinion of the British people. It seems to me that Owen

:31:03.:31:06.

Paterson made the case for me precisely. They refuse to discuss

:31:07.:31:13.

what kind of destination. Britain voted for departure, but not a

:31:14.:31:17.

destination. Because Owen Paterson and his colleagues refused to

:31:18.:31:22.

discuss what their model was. So the range of options here and the impact

:31:23.:31:25.

on the people of Britain is huge. There is nothing to stop the

:31:26.:31:28.

government going to negotiate, getting the best deal it can and go

:31:29.:31:33.

into the British people and saying, this is the deal, guys, do you

:31:34.:31:41.

agree? Owen Paterson? It is simple. The British people voted to leave.

:31:42.:31:46.

We voted to take back control of our laws, our money, our borders. But

:31:47.:31:52.

most people don't know the shape of what the deal would be. So why not

:31:53.:31:57.

have a vote on it? Because it would be a gift to the EU negotiators to

:31:58.:32:02.

drive the worst possible deal in the hope that it might be chucked out

:32:03.:32:06.

with a second referendum. The biggest danger is the uncertainty.

:32:07.:32:11.

We have the biggest vote in British history. You have said all that. It

:32:12.:32:17.

was your side that originally proposed a second referendum. The

:32:18.:32:24.

director of Leave said, there is a strong democratic case for a

:32:25.:32:28.

referendum on what the deal looks like. Your side. Come on, you are

:32:29.:32:41.

digging up a blog from June of 2015. He said he had not come to a

:32:42.:32:45.

conclusion. He said it is a distinct possibility. No senior members of

:32:46.:32:51.

the campaign said we would have a second referendum. It is worth

:32:52.:32:56.

chucking Paddy the quote he gave on ITV news, whether it is a majority

:32:57.:33:01.

of 1% or 20%, when the British people have spoken, you do what they

:33:02.:33:08.

command. People come up to me and keep asking, when are you going to

:33:09.:33:13.

get on with it? What do you say to that, Paddy Ashdown? Owen Paterson

:33:14.:33:20.

has obviously not been paying attention. You ask me that question

:33:21.:33:29.

at the start. Owen and his kind have to stick to the same argument.

:33:30.:33:34.

During the referendum, when we said that the Europeans have it in their

:33:35.:33:40.

interest to picket tough for us, they would suffer as well. And that

:33:41.:33:44.

has proved to be right. The European Union does not wish to hand as a bad

:33:45.:33:50.

deal, because they may suffer in the process. We need the best deal for

:33:51.:33:58.

both sides. I can't understand why Owen is now reversing that argument.

:33:59.:34:05.

Here is the question I am going to ask you. If we have a second

:34:06.:34:11.

referendum on the deal and we vote by a very small amount, by a sliver,

:34:12.:34:17.

to stay in, can we then make it best-of-3? No, Andrew! Vince Cable

:34:18.:34:29.

says he thinks if you won, he would have to have a decider. You will

:34:30.:34:34.

have to put that income tax, because I don't remember when he said that.

:34:35.:34:43.

-- you have to put that in context. Independent, 19th of September. That

:34:44.:34:48.

is a decision on the outcome. The central point is that the British

:34:49.:34:52.

people voted for departure, not a destination. In response to the

:34:53.:34:58.

claim that this is undemocratic, if it is democratic to have one

:34:59.:35:03.

referendum, how can it be undemocratic to have two? Owen

:35:04.:35:07.

Paterson, the British government, on the brink of triggering article 50,

:35:08.:35:10.

cannot tell us if we will remain members of the single market, if we

:35:11.:35:16.

will remain members of the customs union. From that flows our ability

:35:17.:35:21.

to make trade deals, our attitude towards freedom of movement and the

:35:22.:35:25.

rest of it. Given that the government can't tell us, it is

:35:26.:35:28.

clear that the British people have no idea what the eventual shape will

:35:29.:35:32.

be. That is surely the fundamental case for a second referendum.

:35:33.:35:40.

Emphatically not. They have given a clear vote. That vote was to take

:35:41.:35:47.

back control. What the establishment figures like Paddy should recognise

:35:48.:35:51.

is the shattering damage it would do to the integrity of the whole

:35:52.:35:55.

political process if this was not delivered. People come up to me, as

:35:56.:36:01.

I have said for the third time now, wanting to know when we will get

:36:02.:36:07.

article 50 triggered. Both people who have voted to Remain and to

:36:08.:36:12.

Leave. If we do not deliver this, it will be disastrous for the

:36:13.:36:16.

reputation and integrity of the whole political establishment. Let

:36:17.:36:21.

me put that you Paddy Ashdown. It is very Brussels elite - were ask your

:36:22.:36:28.

question but if we don't like the answer, we will keep asking the

:36:29.:36:31.

question. Did it with the Irish and French. It is... It would really

:36:32.:36:39.

anger the British people, would it not? That is an interesting

:36:40.:36:46.

question, Andrew. I don't think it would. All the evidence I see in

:36:47.:36:50.

public meetings I attended, and I think it is beginning to show in the

:36:51.:36:53.

opinion polls, although there hasn't been a proper one on this yet, I

:36:54.:36:56.

suspect there is a majority in Britain who would wish to see a

:36:57.:37:00.

second referendum on the outcome. They take the same view as I do.

:37:01.:37:05.

What began with an open democratic process cannot end with a government

:37:06.:37:09.

stitch up. Contrary to what Owen suggests, there is public support

:37:10.:37:14.

for this. And far from damaging the government and the political class,

:37:15.:37:20.

it showed that we are prepared to listen. We shall see. Paddy Ashdown,

:37:21.:37:26.

have you eaten your hat yet? Andrew, as you well know, I have eaten five

:37:27.:37:34.

hats. You cannot have a second referendum until you eat your hat on

:37:35.:37:38.

my programme. We will leave it there. Paddy Ashdown and Owen

:37:39.:37:45.

Paterson, thank you much. I have eaten a hat on your programme. I

:37:46.:37:47.

don't remember! It's just gone 11.35,

:37:48.:37:50.

you're watching the Sunday Politics. On today's show.

:37:51.:37:52.

in Scotland, who leave us now The Chancellor promised money

:37:53.:38:06.

for thousands of new homes this week, but is it any more

:38:07.:38:09.

than a drop in the cement mixer? We will look at schemes

:38:10.:38:13.

in the South in a building houses a lot cheaper

:38:14.:38:21.

and finding out the latest on the eco-town proposal plan

:38:22.:38:24.

for Borden in Hampshire. Molly Scott Cato is

:38:25.:38:25.

from the Green Party and an MEP in the

:38:26.:38:32.

south-west of England. And Dan Hannan is a Conservative MEP

:38:33.:38:33.

for the Well, a lot of people

:38:34.:38:36.

have a lot of names for 26 years I was working for Britain

:38:37.:38:46.

becoming independent again, I've never felt more proud

:38:47.:38:52.

than I did on the 24th of It is my wedding anniversary,

:38:53.:38:59.

but now it has a new and special But what is your take

:39:00.:39:03.

on the temperature of how Confident and optimistic

:39:04.:39:07.

that we will get a satisfactory deal with

:39:08.:39:15.

the European Union based We will all act in our own interests

:39:16.:39:17.

and we have the same one, which is We will have open, good free trade

:39:18.:39:23.

deals with the rest of the world, Australia, America and India, based

:39:24.:39:28.

on consumers rather than producer cartels and I think a decade from

:39:29.:39:31.

now, we will look back and wonder He should do the negotiations,

:39:32.:39:34.

shouldn't he? Well, considering he's been

:39:35.:39:42.

thinking about this the 26 years, I'm surprised there is more

:39:43.:39:44.

of a clear plan coming forward. And I think we are

:39:45.:39:47.

beginning to see what Brexit Britain is going

:39:48.:39:49.

to look like, actually. It is a country with high debts,

:39:50.:39:51.

low taxes, looking a bit like a tax haven, lower wages

:39:52.:39:54.

are much higher prices. Since the Conservatives came

:39:55.:39:56.

to power in 2010, the deficit has Now, there's going to be

:39:57.:40:05.

122 black holes because The uncertainty is spelt out

:40:06.:40:13.

in the Autumn Statement. It has doubled, it is

:40:14.:40:20.

getting to the point where we are likely

:40:21.:40:24.

to be like Japan. The deficit was under

:40:25.:40:28.

the But it has doubled

:40:29.:40:29.

in the Conservative Yes, because that's what happens

:40:30.:40:35.

when you have a deficit... Actually, the amount

:40:36.:40:40.

of money paid by the top 10% Let us come back to your

:40:41.:40:49.

salaries as MEPs later. In the meantime, in his

:40:50.:40:54.

Autumn Statement, the Chancellor made much of the planned investments

:40:55.:40:56.

in infrastructure, though declined to mention specifics beyond saying

:40:57.:40:59.

the south-west will be in line for ?191 million and London

:41:00.:41:01.

and the south-east for The lion's share that will probably

:41:02.:41:03.

go to the capital, I think we can Enterprise partnerships

:41:04.:41:16.

across the country have put in bids to the growth fund,

:41:17.:41:22.

but tough to wait to see exactly which ones

:41:23.:41:24.

are Joining me now is Laura

:41:25.:41:25.

Carver, the Dorset MEP. Short on detail, wasn't it,

:41:26.:41:30.

the Autumn Statement? I think the details will follow very

:41:31.:41:32.

shortly and we are looking forward

:41:33.:41:34.

to that and it is positive. There's ?191 million coming

:41:35.:41:36.

into the south-west. You have to say that,

:41:37.:41:41.

because you are still This London and the south-east

:41:42.:41:44.

figure surely is concealing the small

:41:45.:41:48.

amount of money as it it all goes to the Northern

:41:49.:41:50.

powerhouse and the Midland engine? We are in a great position that we

:41:51.:41:53.

will have some money coming into Dorset for infrastructure, housing

:41:54.:41:57.

and colleges and that is a good Skills and research and development

:41:58.:41:59.

seemed to be a bit of a That is something Dorset can

:42:00.:42:03.

do well, it isn't it? There are free colleges in Dorset,

:42:04.:42:07.

we are hoping each of those will have further

:42:08.:42:09.

funding to enhance their facilities to enable young people going there

:42:10.:42:11.

to go straight to the local There are a lot of key sectors,

:42:12.:42:14.

finance, manufacturing, we need to keep equipment

:42:15.:42:19.

up-to-date in those places and have the business input to make

:42:20.:42:22.

sure the young people Like everywhere, there

:42:23.:42:24.

is a mixed view in Dorset. What we are able to do is work

:42:25.:42:36.

with people like the Department of industry and trade, working

:42:37.:42:39.

with our growth hope to make sure businesses wants to exports or look

:42:40.:42:42.

at other Sorry, we know it's going to happen,

:42:43.:42:44.

Theresa May says it is. You should be shock

:42:45.:42:56.

proofing, shouldn't you? Isn't that what you

:42:57.:42:58.

should be doing now? If one of the big finance people

:42:59.:43:01.

move to Europe, what will we Ultimately, we are building

:43:02.:43:04.

on the strengths we We are working with businesses

:43:05.:43:08.

to help them grow their businesses and that is why we are looking at

:43:09.:43:14.

housing and skills and working with Government departments

:43:15.:43:17.

to build more resilience. There wasn't much

:43:18.:43:18.

either on devolution. Dorset is supposed

:43:19.:43:21.

to be progressing. Rural working with cities,

:43:22.:43:22.

Bournemouth high-tech along with what happens

:43:23.:43:32.

in West Dorset. But surely we should be further down

:43:33.:43:34.

the road with taking It has had a recent consultation

:43:35.:43:36.

on combine authority and unitary decisions, so actually,

:43:37.:43:43.

the progress in Dorset is so what... It doesn't seem Philip Hammond

:43:44.:43:49.

is as keen as George Osborne was on My understanding is yes,

:43:50.:43:52.

there are opportunities for the taking and Dorset is working its way

:43:53.:44:00.

through part of the process of looking at different

:44:01.:44:03.

Government structures. I mean, Cambridge and the East bid

:44:04.:44:08.

was supposed to be signed off by George Osborne

:44:09.:44:16.

and now it is not as clear Well, I can't speak about Cambridge,

:44:17.:44:19.

but Dorset is certainly progressing. The local authorities

:44:20.:44:24.

are part of the LEP, so it is working, you know,

:44:25.:44:26.

with a symbiotic relationship with local authorities that are

:44:27.:44:29.

supportive of the combine authority and the LEP is working

:44:30.:44:31.

with our partners to make sure we are in

:44:32.:44:33.

the I would like to see our

:44:34.:44:35.

counties and other cities taking on massive responsibility

:44:36.:44:48.

on health care, on welfare, social Hampshire has the same

:44:49.:44:50.

population as New New Hampshire runs its own

:44:51.:44:55.

Criminal Justice System, its own I don't believe English

:44:56.:44:59.

counties and cities are uniquely incapable

:45:00.:45:02.

of self governance. Central Government never gives these

:45:03.:45:04.

things without being The demand has to be

:45:05.:45:06.

coming from below. is being knocked back

:45:07.:45:10.

by Westminster, isn't it? Parties or always in

:45:11.:45:15.

favour of devolution when And it's a different

:45:16.:45:20.

thing when they are in I don't see any power

:45:21.:45:24.

exercised by Holyrood under the 1998 Scotland Act that cannot

:45:25.:45:33.

in England be exercised But what I see in the LEPs

:45:34.:45:35.

is there isn't a degree of political control or oversight in the way

:45:36.:45:45.

public money is being spent. I would like to see

:45:46.:45:47.

powers following the money and to see much

:45:48.:45:51.

what investment in the south-east of As you point out, George Osborne

:45:52.:45:54.

was very focused on the There wasn't enough

:45:55.:45:59.

coming to the south-west. The whole devolution plan he had

:46:00.:46:02.

was a real blog's breakfast,

:46:03.:46:04.

with the different power is going to No, it is our MPs fault for not

:46:05.:46:06.

putting pressure on. And also, maybe there

:46:07.:46:12.

should be more connections between you and me,

:46:13.:46:14.

people of the local... There has been some movement,

:46:15.:46:18.

which is unusual, in the sense we've now got in Manchester

:46:19.:46:20.

and Birmingham these super Mayors. There is one, including other health

:46:21.:46:24.

care, which is a big one. The big one I want is

:46:25.:46:30.

tax at a local level. No, no, you do want

:46:31.:46:33.

to break up the NHS. I want everything at

:46:34.:46:36.

Well, who would be man enough to buy shares in the

:46:37.:46:43.

Most people think in Britain that it is better.

:46:44.:46:48.

I mean, this is something we've been hearing since

:46:49.:46:53.

1979, the Tories are going to privatise the NHS.

:46:54.:46:55.

Well, then, what are you worried about?

:46:56.:47:06.

see social care in the NHS. It looks like the plans coming through from

:47:07.:47:14.

some hospital areas mean that there is quite a reorganisation. I'd like

:47:15.:47:23.

to see them run politically. If they are run, it should be further public

:47:24.:47:27.

good. There should be no profit motive. Health and social care

:47:28.:47:30.

should be combine and we need to move toward a system where we have

:47:31.:47:34.

local political control over how they work. They both say be more

:47:35.:47:39.

ambitious. What about health and social care at the NHS?

:47:40.:47:44.

Unaccountability, local authorities plus business input for free and

:47:45.:47:49.

voluntary boards. So you get what you would plus a bigger geography,

:47:50.:47:54.

more strategic. Dorset is currently looking at the governance. Get that

:47:55.:47:58.

right and you can deliver. Delivery is what we are all about, so Dorset

:47:59.:48:03.

LEP has been delivering the growth fund and you can see things on the

:48:04.:48:07.

ground and you can see building is changing, roads going up. We are

:48:08.:48:12.

delivering and having the right Government structures enables

:48:13.:48:16.

delivery. Ambition is part of that is, but it has to be one step at a

:48:17.:48:20.

time or you may not get the result you want. Wouldn't it be wonderful

:48:21.:48:26.

though if instead of a letter city and wanting more money from Philip

:48:27.:48:30.

Allen and, if you could raise the money and control the revenue...

:48:31.:48:36.

There are businesses, we do want the LEP raising the money. They are not

:48:37.:48:47.

the majority of the board though, it is business people who make

:48:48.:48:49.

decisions about public money spending. It is a joint decision,

:48:50.:48:54.

bringing together the best of both worlds for the best outcomes. Thank

:48:55.:49:00.

you. One area where the Chancellor was little more specific was

:49:01.:49:02.

housing, and in particular the urgent need to provide more

:49:03.:49:08.

affordable housing. The challenge of delivering the housing we so

:49:09.:49:11.

desperately need in the places where it is currently least affordable is

:49:12.:49:17.

not a new one, but the effect of unaffordable housing on our nation's

:49:18.:49:22.

productivity makes it an urgent one. He also announced over ?2 billion to

:49:23.:49:26.

help local authorities deliver 100,000 new homes and 1.4 billion on

:49:27.:49:32.

top of that for affordable housing. Will make more than a dent in the

:49:33.:49:36.

problem? It is clear the Government is willing to try a full range of

:49:37.:49:41.

solutions. If we want to build the homes this country needs, we need a

:49:42.:49:47.

mixture of new, larger settlements, new thriving villages and also

:49:48.:49:50.

redeveloping Bromfield lands in our towns and cities. One place that was

:49:51.:49:58.

supposed to combine reuse of a brown field sites with cutting-edge

:49:59.:50:02.

building technology was proposed eco-town in Borden in Hampshire.

:50:03.:50:08.

However been going? As befits a new technology development, the director

:50:09.:50:13.

of Whitehill border drives an electric car. Steve Pearce has been

:50:14.:50:16.

waiting a long time for this to happen. The employment opportunities

:50:17.:50:20.

will be fantastic. The eco-town idea will be fantastic. The eco-town idea

:50:21.:50:24.

started under Labour, to replace the old army training area. There have

:50:25.:50:28.

been delays, but now the first of been delays, but now the first of

:50:29.:50:30.

more than 3000 houses is being built. Very excited. This has been a

:50:31.:50:37.

decade in the planning and the Army first spoke about moving out of the

:50:38.:50:41.

town ten years ago and there has been a lot of consultation on what

:50:42.:50:45.

might happen and maybe some labels will change, but what we are trying

:50:46.:50:48.

to achieve is a green and healthy town and we will definitely deliver.

:50:49.:50:58.

Some of the new roads have already been built, but existing residents

:50:59.:51:01.

are worried that schools and health centres will be put under pressure

:51:02.:51:05.

by new residents. They keep putting out things that they don't feel

:51:06.:51:10.

matter to the residents that are already here. Such as they promised

:51:11.:51:22.

facilities, well, I can't see any. There have also rode back on

:51:23.:51:26.

environmental ambitions. The tree of solar panels on an old fire tower

:51:27.:51:29.

and demonstration houses may be the only ones in the new estate. These

:51:30.:51:34.

three houses are all that happened from the old eco-town proposal, but

:51:35.:51:39.

the people behind the Bordon Whitehill development say they've

:51:40.:51:43.

more likely to provide real homes more likely to provide real homes

:51:44.:51:47.

for real people. One way of getting what you really want is to build it

:51:48.:51:52.

yourself. Councillors from Cherwell are planning a self built

:51:53.:51:57.

development of 2000 houses at Ravenhill. What Ravenhill provides

:51:58.:52:02.

is land, a significant number of scale plots. Also, finances. Other

:52:03.:52:08.

people get mortgages? It is not grand designs can lead only cash in

:52:09.:52:11.

the bank, this is about building your dream home at different levels

:52:12.:52:15.

of your life and spending different amounts of money. The new reality is

:52:16.:52:23.

that off-the-shelf double glazing unconventional incher Laois and can

:52:24.:52:25.

get environmentally sound results at low gust. This one bedroom detached

:52:26.:52:30.

house has been built by the University for just ?50,000, using

:52:31.:52:33.

standard techniques. It is not particularly technically advanced,

:52:34.:52:40.

we have a problem with skill sets out the high end, so the purpose was

:52:41.:52:43.

to make it as traditional as possible, so we could use local

:52:44.:52:49.

labour that would help the local economy. Southampton council says

:52:50.:52:53.

that this is desperately needed. The beauty of this scheme is it allows

:52:54.:52:57.

you to use relatively small amounts of urban space and meet needs and is

:52:58.:53:03.

adaptable. In a Bordon, the use of ex-Army land has kept down costs to

:53:04.:53:08.

25% below local equivalents and in the end, it is the affordability of

:53:09.:53:13.

sustainable homes that matters. Molly, sustainable and the cost. All

:53:14.:53:18.

they are opposites or do you think they are opposites or do you think

:53:19.:53:23.

we can build new housing that people will welcome? That depends on

:53:24.:53:28.

Government policy. One thing I noted in the Autumn Statement was not a

:53:29.:53:29.

single mention of climate change, single mention of climate change,

:53:30.:53:33.

despite the fact we signed up to the Paris Agreement. If the Government

:53:34.:53:39.

started providing tax incentives for eco-towns over people to make it

:53:40.:53:46.

affordable to get higher levels of insulation, people would move in

:53:47.:53:51.

that direction. Don't we just need houses? Not just any old houses, the

:53:52.:53:56.

quality matters. One thing we proposed in our Autumn Statement

:53:57.:53:59.

report is we should allow local authorities to borrow money so they

:54:00.:54:03.

can build social housing which is genuinely affordable, because it

:54:04.:54:07.

would be reasonable rent. At a time of historically low interest rates,

:54:08.:54:11.

local authorities must be able to do that. They were always built to a

:54:12.:54:16.

high standard, council houses? Yes, how they are now leading the way it

:54:17.:54:20.

with ground sourced heat pumps, there are a lot of those in council

:54:21.:54:24.

housing in my constituency. We can put the politics and a longer-term

:54:25.:54:30.

perspective as well as make an affordable together. Is all that

:54:31.:54:33.

stuff slowing down a housing which would get people off waiting lists?

:54:34.:54:41.

No, there will be... I think that is more than a dent, 400,000 affordable

:54:42.:54:45.

houses by 2020, these are big numbers. All the targets have

:54:46.:54:57.

previously been missed. The Molly is right when she says what kind of

:54:58.:55:02.

houses. There is something bizarre about essential decree on houses. A

:55:03.:55:06.

bit like the soviet union said this is a mini tractors were going to

:55:07.:55:10.

have. Is always better if it is locally and organically in response

:55:11.:55:18.

to local people. It will work out way better. 2000 self built houses?

:55:19.:55:26.

I bet they will be beautiful. I bet architects will back and say why did

:55:27.:55:31.

trust people more? In the same way, we now have this mechanism being

:55:32.:55:35.

used all over the south, to have a referendum on where to put houses,

:55:36.:55:39.

where locals can come up with an alternative plan and local community

:55:40.:55:42.

step by retired architects and account is coming under the weight

:55:43.:55:49.

nothing. Well, it didn't lead to the targets being delivered. That's

:55:50.:55:54.

because we need to change planning law in a way that retains the beauty

:55:55.:55:59.

of this country. We have been lucky. Southern England has a slightly

:56:00.:56:04.

higher population density than most of the Netherlands. When you look

:56:05.:56:08.

there, we have done well. But current planning laws incentivise

:56:09.:56:13.

the building of some hideous houses and do the opposite for Brownfield

:56:14.:56:18.

land. We can make changes to make housing more affordable while

:56:19.:56:20.

preserving the natural beauty of the country. It's not what they look

:56:21.:56:25.

like that is important. People should be able to be creative and I

:56:26.:56:29.

like the self build scheme. But it's also important that as a society, we

:56:30.:56:33.

decide what is important is for all of us and the future, so we can't

:56:34.:56:38.

allow people to build willy-nilly and ignore climate change and the

:56:39.:56:42.

need to tackle carbon emissions. Philip Hammond made his money as a

:56:43.:56:46.

property developer. Willie concreted over fields? I'm not worried. I

:56:47.:56:52.

think it is an interest property developers rather than people in

:56:53.:56:55.

need houses. All wheel on the market decide that, they build expensive

:56:56.:56:58.

houses for rich people and what I would rather see is houses built for

:56:59.:57:01.

can't afford to buy them. We will can't afford to buy them. We will

:57:02.:57:07.

return to you in five years and will be houses be built? All the targets

:57:08.:57:13.

be missed again? I think there will be more houses and less pressure

:57:14.:57:15.

from migration I suspect. I suspect from migration I suspect. I suspect

:57:16.:57:21.

that has peaked, but we will still have... It is a good problem to have

:57:22.:57:25.

in a way. The basic reason why there's increasing demand for houses

:57:26.:57:30.

is because we living longer. And with the Brexit economic disaster

:57:31.:57:32.

people will be living to work elsewhere. You will achieve your

:57:33.:57:40.

migration targets. Now for 60 seconds.

:57:41.:57:51.

It has been revealed four Councillors in Oxfordshire received

:57:52.:57:55.

court summons last year after failing to pay their council tax.

:57:56.:58:01.

Including the Lord Mayor of Oxford who now was the council to do more

:58:02.:58:05.

to remind people. Work has begun on a new Reading Gateway retail and

:58:06.:58:08.

housing part, though some locals say it will not benefit them. Here's a

:58:09.:58:13.

simple and cost-effective idea to help homeless people on the Isle of

:58:14.:58:17.

White using a converted bus which can accommodate 16 people on council

:58:18.:58:23.

land in Newport. They must also do a day of voluntary work, because they

:58:24.:58:26.

are here during the day, so let us fill that space. Historic but

:58:27.:58:31.

dilapidated buildings at Bletchley Park to be converted into an A-level

:58:32.:58:35.

college specialising in studies for cyber security. Meet the robot seal

:58:36.:58:42.

that is helping out in Oxfordshire care home. Clean and less votes band

:58:43.:58:47.

aid real dog or cat. ?5,000 is quite an investment and has had a huge

:58:48.:58:57.

impact for the residents. A brave new world talking to robot seals.

:58:58.:59:04.

Isn't there an episode of The Simpsons with those seals when they

:59:05.:59:09.

come mad and attack people? Given that they predict that the Trump

:59:10.:59:13.

Presidency, that should make us afraid won kind of. You say

:59:14.:59:17.

everybody saw Trump coming at Paris, which is why everyone rushed to sign

:59:18.:59:23.

it. Ideas the reason that Obama was trying to sign it quickly and all

:59:24.:59:26.

the other countries got on board was because there was a worry if Obama

:59:27.:59:30.

did not sign up, Trump may not, and now he can't veto it for three

:59:31.:59:34.

years, though it is worrying, his ideas like climate change. Hopefully

:59:35.:59:38.

they are tied in for three years to making carbon reductions and

:59:39.:59:47.

ecologist open up... Is there a role for MEPs now? This week Nigel Farage

:59:48.:59:52.

was suggested as an ambassador, Diana James became an independent,

:59:53.:59:59.

you two are MEPs. You're looking for another job, Brexit? I will be

:00:00.:00:02.

unemployed in a couple of years so need something else. In the

:00:03.:00:09.

meantime, I must see this process through and ensure I play my part in

:00:10.:00:13.

getting the best possible deal and by that I mean terms that are

:00:14.:00:19.

advantageous to others but also to the other countries. Do you trust

:00:20.:00:23.

the Prime Minister? She's not put a foot wrong so far and she said she

:00:24.:00:28.

wants Britain to be the world leader in free trade. Any chance of a

:00:29.:00:33.

second referendum? Once we see what the deal is and if economics content

:00:34.:00:37.

to decline does reach other serious think about whether this is the best

:00:38.:00:43.

thing for the country. Wouldn't it be visited us all the people and

:00:44.:00:48.

elect another? The be all change your mind, we should listen to it.

:00:49.:00:53.

We have have got to make sure London is

:00:54.:01:00.

open. Thank you. Andrew, back to you.

:01:01.:01:06.

Is Theresa May serious about curbing executive pay?

:01:07.:01:07.

Who will be crowned Nigel Farage's successor as Ukip leader?

:01:08.:01:11.

And can the Lib Dems pull off a by-election upset in Richmond?

:01:12.:01:16.

So,,, on pay talk about the executive of what executives get

:01:17.:01:41.

compared to the average worker in the company, giving shareholders

:01:42.:01:43.

real power to vote down pay rises if they don't like them, which is

:01:44.:01:47.

pretty much what Ed Miliband proposed in the general election in

:01:48.:01:57.

2015. Is she serious about this? She is very serious, and the Tory party

:01:58.:02:00.

probably does owe Ed Miliband an apology for trashing his ideas and

:02:01.:02:04.

2015 and then putting them all up for votes in November 20 16. She is

:02:05.:02:08.

very serious, and this all comes back to her desperate fear that

:02:09.:02:11.

unless capitalism reforms itself and becomes more acceptable to the just

:02:12.:02:18.

about managing or even 78% of the country who are not earning vast

:02:19.:02:21.

wealth at anywhere near the figures you see in the City, serious things

:02:22.:02:26.

will happen and the political sense of trust will implode. She has

:02:27.:02:31.

already been bartered down by her own Cabinet on this. She wanted to

:02:32.:02:35.

go further and make workers on the board mandatory. They have managed

:02:36.:02:42.

to stop that. What will her fallback position be on workers on the board

:02:43.:02:46.

if she is not able to get it into some claw? We would like to have

:02:47.:02:52.

workers on the board, but whatever they do on the board there will have

:02:53.:02:57.

no voting powers on the board. When you look at what was leaked out over

:02:58.:03:02.

the weekend, that we should know the ratio of the top to the average and

:03:03.:03:06.

that shareholders who own the company should determine, in the

:03:07.:03:11.

end, the highest-paid salaries, you kind of think, what could the

:03:12.:03:17.

possible objection be to any of that? Two things. One, I agree with

:03:18.:03:23.

Tom that she is deadly serious about this agenda and it comes under the

:03:24.:03:29.

banner, that sentence in the party conference speech about "It's time

:03:30.:03:32.

to focus on the good that government can do". She is by instinct more of

:03:33.:03:37.

an interventionist than Cameron and Osborne. But she is incredibly

:03:38.:03:41.

cautious, whether it is through the internal constraints of opposition

:03:42.:03:45.

within Cabinet, or her own small C Conservative caution in implementing

:03:46.:03:52.

this stuff. Part of the problem is the practicalities. George Osborne

:03:53.:03:55.

commission will Hutton to do a report which came out with similar

:03:56.:03:59.

proposals, which were never implemented. It is quite hard to

:04:00.:04:03.

enforce. It will antagonise business leaders when she's to woo them again

:04:04.:04:09.

in this Brexit furore. So there are problems with it. And judging by

:04:10.:04:13.

what has happened so far, my guess is that the aim will be genuinely

:04:14.:04:18.

bold and interesting, and the implementation incredibly cautious.

:04:19.:04:21.

Does it matter if she annoys some business leaders? Isn't that part of

:04:22.:04:28.

her brand? Will there be problems on the Tory backbenches with it? I

:04:29.:04:32.

think there will be and I think it does matter at this sensitive time

:04:33.:04:34.

for when we are positioning ourselves as a country and whether

:04:35.:04:40.

we are going to brand ourselves as a great city of business, implementing

:04:41.:04:42.

quite interventionist policies. Any suggestion that the government can

:04:43.:04:47.

control how much the top earners get, I think would be received in a

:04:48.:04:51.

hostile way. What would be wrong with the shareholders, who own the

:04:52.:04:54.

company, determining the pay of the higher hands, the executives?

:04:55.:04:59.

Morally, you can absolutely make that argument but to business

:05:00.:05:03.

leaders, they will not like it. Ultimately, this will not come down

:05:04.:05:08.

to more than a row of beans. There was a huge debate about whether

:05:09.:05:11.

there should be quotas of women on boards. In the end, that never

:05:12.:05:17.

happened. All we get is figures. But quotas of women, for which there is

:05:18.:05:22.

a case and a case against too, that was a government mandate. This is

:05:23.:05:26.

not, this is simply empowering shareholders who own the company to

:05:27.:05:29.

determine the pay of the people they hire. There is a strong moral

:05:30.:05:38.

argument for it. Strong economic argument. But the Tory backbenchers

:05:39.:05:44.

will not like this. The downside is that this is a world where companies

:05:45.:05:47.

are thinking about upping sticks to Europe. No, they say they are

:05:48.:05:51.

thinking of that. Not one has done it yet. Others have made massive

:05:52.:05:58.

investments in this country. But is it not an incentive for those making

:05:59.:06:04.

these threats to actually do it? In Europe, bankers' pay is now mandated

:06:05.:06:10.

by Brussels. It is a vivid way of showing you are addressing the issue

:06:11.:06:15.

of inequality. I think she will go with it, but let's move on to Ukip.

:06:16.:06:23.

I think we will get the result tomorrow. There are the top three

:06:24.:06:27.

candidates. Paul Nuttall, Suzanne Evans and on my right, John Reid

:06:28.:06:33.

Evans. One of them will be the next leader. Who is going to win? It is

:06:34.:06:39.

widely predicted to be Paul Nuttall and is probably the outcome that the

:06:40.:06:43.

Labour Party fears most. Paul Nuttall is a very effective

:06:44.:06:46.

communicator. He is not a household name, far from it, but people will

:06:47.:06:53.

begin to learn more about him and find that he is actually quite a

:06:54.:06:57.

strong leader. Can people Ukip together again after this shambolic

:06:58.:07:03.

period since the referendum? If anyone can, he can. And his brand of

:07:04.:07:09.

working collar, Northern Ukip is the thing that will work for them. Do

:07:10.:07:16.

you think he is the favourite? It would be amazing if he doesn't win.

:07:17.:07:19.

His greatest problem will be getting Nigel Farage off his back. He is

:07:20.:07:24.

going on a speaking tour of North America. A long speaking tour. Ukip

:07:25.:07:31.

won this EU referendum. They had the chance to hoover up these

:07:32.:07:35.

discontented Labour voters in the north, and all he has done is

:07:36.:07:40.

associated with Ukip with Farage. But Nigel Farage is fed up of Ukip

:07:41.:07:43.

and will be glad to be hands of it. The bigger problem is money. If it

:07:44.:07:49.

is Paul Nuttall, and we don't know the results yet, but he is the

:07:50.:07:54.

favourite, if it is him, I would suggest that that is the result

:07:55.:07:58.

Labour is frightened of most. To be honest, I think they are frightened

:07:59.:08:02.

of Ukip whatever the result. Possibly with good cause. The reason

:08:03.:08:08.

I qualify that is that what you call a shambles over the summer has been

:08:09.:08:12.

something that goes beyond Monty Python in its absurdity and madness.

:08:13.:08:18.

That calls into question whether it can function as a political party

:08:19.:08:23.

when you have what has gone on. The number of leaders itself has been an

:08:24.:08:29.

act of madness. In a context which should be fantastic for them. They

:08:30.:08:35.

have won a referendum. There is a debate about what form Brexit should

:08:36.:08:38.

take, it is a dream for them, and they have gone bonkers. If he can

:08:39.:08:43.

turn it around, I agree that he is a powerful media communicator, and

:08:44.:08:46.

then it is a threat to Labour. But he has got to show that first.

:08:47.:08:52.

Indeed. The by-election in Richmond in south-west London, called by Zac

:08:53.:08:56.

Goldsmith over Heathrow. Has it turned out to be a by-election about

:08:57.:09:00.

Heathrow, or has it turned into a by-election, which is what the Lib

:09:01.:09:06.

Dems wanted, about Brexit? We will know on Thursday. If the Lib Dems

:09:07.:09:10.

win, they will turn it into an EU referendum. It seems incredibly

:09:11.:09:13.

close now. The Lib Dems are swamping Richmond. They had 1000 activists

:09:14.:09:19.

there yesterday. That is getting on for 100th of the population of the

:09:20.:09:23.

place! If the Lib Dems don't manage to win on Thursday and don't manage

:09:24.:09:27.

to turn it into an EU referendum despite all their efforts, it will

:09:28.:09:30.

probably be a disaster for the party. What do you hear, Isabel? I

:09:31.:09:39.

hear that the Lib Dems have absolutely swamped the constituency,

:09:40.:09:43.

but this may backfire. I saw a bit of this myself, living in Witney,

:09:44.:09:49.

when the Lib Dems also swamped and people began to get fed up of their

:09:50.:09:54.

aggressive tactics. I understand that Zac Goldsmith is cautiously

:09:55.:09:58.

optimistic that he will pull this one off. Quick stab at the result? I

:09:59.:10:07.

don't know. But we are entering a period when by-elections are

:10:08.:10:12.

acquiring significant again. If the Lib Dems were to make a game, it

:10:13.:10:15.

would breathe life into that near moribund party like nothing else.

:10:16.:10:22.

Similarly, other by-elections in this shapeless political world we

:10:23.:10:27.

are in are going to become significant. We don't know if we are

:10:28.:10:30.

covering it live on Thursday night yet because we have to find at the

:10:31.:10:32.

time they are going to declare. Richmond are quite late in

:10:33.:10:39.

declaring, but if it is in the early hours, that is fine. If it is on

:10:40.:10:44.

breakfast television, they be not. I want to show you this. Michael Gove

:10:45.:10:48.

was on the Andrew Marr Show this morning. In the now notorious

:10:49.:10:54.

comment that I made, I was actually cut off in midstream, as politicians

:10:55.:10:57.

often. The point I made was not that all experts are that is nonsense.

:10:58.:11:03.

Expert engineers, doctors and physicists are not wrong. But there

:11:04.:11:10.

is a subclass of experts, particularly social scientists, who

:11:11.:11:12.

have to reflect on some of the mistakes they have made. And the

:11:13.:11:18.

recession, which was predicted that we would have if we voted to leave,

:11:19.:11:21.

has gone like a puff of smoke. So economic experts, he talks about.

:11:22.:11:28.

The Chancellor has based all of his forward predictions in this Autumn

:11:29.:11:31.

Statement on the economic expert forecasters. The Office for Budget

:11:32.:11:38.

Responsibility has said it is 50-50, which is the toss of a coin. But

:11:39.:11:44.

what was he supposed to do? You would ideally have to have a Budget

:11:45.:11:49.

that had several sets of scenarios, and that is impossible. Crystal ball

:11:50.:11:57.

territory. But you do wonder if governments are right to do so much

:11:58.:12:01.

of their fiscal projections on the basis of forecasts which turn out to

:12:02.:12:05.

be wrong. They have nothing else to go on. The Treasury forecast is to

:12:06.:12:10.

be wrong. No doubt the OBR forecast will prove not to be exact. As you

:12:11.:12:15.

say, they admitted that they are navigating through fog at the

:12:16.:12:19.

moment. But he also added that it was fog caused by Brexit. So Brexit,

:12:20.:12:23.

even if you accept that these forecasts might be wrong, is causing

:12:24.:12:30.

such a level of uncertainty. He put the figure at 60 billion. That could

:12:31.:12:36.

come to haunt him. He hasn't got a clue. He admitted it. He said,

:12:37.:12:44.

Parliament mandates me to come up with something, so I am going to

:12:45.:12:47.

give you a number. But I wouldn't trust it if I were you, he basically

:12:48.:12:53.

said. I agree with you. The man who borrowed 122 billion more off the

:12:54.:12:56.

back of a coin toss was Philip Hammond. It begs the question, what

:12:57.:13:00.

does that say about the confidence Philip Hammond has in his own

:13:01.:13:03.

government's renegotiation? Not a huge amount. I agree. Philip Hammond

:13:04.:13:11.

quoted the OBR figures. He basically said, this is uncertain and it looks

:13:12.:13:14.

bad, and on we go with it. It is a very interesting situation, he said.

:13:15.:13:21.

He was for Remain and he works in a department which regards it as a

:13:22.:13:24.

disaster, whatever everyone else thinks. I have just been told we are

:13:25.:13:31.

covering the by-election. We are part of the constitution.

:13:32.:13:33.

Jo Coburn will have more Daily Politics tomorrow

:13:34.:13:35.

And I'll be back here on BBC One next Sunday at 11.

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Remember - if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.

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to signify the Africans who were here.

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The story of Henry VIII and his six wives

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and into the private lives of Henry's six wives.

:14:44.:14:52.

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