18/12/2016 Sunday Politics South


18/12/2016

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LineFromTo

Morning, folks, and welcome to the Sunday Politics.

:00:39.:00:40.

Hard line remainers strike back at Brexit.

:00:41.:00:42.

Are they trying to overturn the result of June's referendum

:00:43.:00:45.

by forcing a second vote before we leave?

:00:46.:00:48.

Australia's man in London tells us that life outside the EU "can be

:00:49.:00:51.

pretty good" and that Brexit will "not be as hard as people say".

:00:52.:00:55.

Could leaving the EU free Britain to do more business

:00:56.:00:58.

It's been called "disgusting, dangerous and deadly"

:00:59.:01:04.

but how polluted is our air, how bad for our health,

:01:05.:01:07.

In the South, who doesn't love the Christmas lights in the town centre?

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The question is, who And with me in the Sunday Politics

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grotto, the Dasher, Dancer and Prancer of political

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punditry Iain Martin, They'll be delivering tweets

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throughout the programme. First this morning,

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some say they will fight for what they call a "soft Brexit",

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but now there's an attempt by those who campaigned for Britain to remain

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in the EU to allow the British people to change their minds -

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possibly with a second referendum - The Labour MEP Richard Corbett

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is revealed this morning to have tried to amend European

:01:58.:02:01.

Parliament resolutions. The original resolution called

:02:02.:02:02.

on the European Parliament to "respect the will

:02:03.:02:05.

of the majority of the citizens of the United Kingdom

:02:06.:02:08.

to leave the EU". He also proposed removing

:02:09.:02:24.

the wording "stress that this wish must be respected" and adding

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"while taking account of the 48.1% The amendments were

:02:30.:02:32.

proposed in October, but were rejected by a vote

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in the Brussels Constitutional Affairs Committee

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earlier this month. The report will be voted

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on by all MEPs in February. Well, joining me now from Leeds

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is the Labour MEP who proposed Good morning. Thanks for joining us

:02:52.:03:01.

at short notice. Is your aim to try and reverse what happened on June

:03:02.:03:07.

23? My aim with those amendments was simply factual. It is rather odd

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that these amendments of two months ago are suddenly used paper

:03:12.:03:16.

headlines in three very different newspapers on the same day. It

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smacks of a sort of concerted effort to try and slapped down any notion

:03:22.:03:27.

that Britain might perhaps want to rethink its position on Brexit as

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the cost of Brexit emerges. You would like us to rethink the

:03:33.:03:37.

position even before the cost urges? I get lots of letters from people

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saying how one, this was an advisory referendum won by a narrow majority

:03:44.:03:50.

on the basis of a pack of lies and a questionable mandate. But if there

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is a mandate from this referendum, it is surely to secure a Brexit that

:03:54.:03:56.

works for Britain without sinking the economy. And if it transpires as

:03:57.:04:01.

we move forward, that this will be a very costly exercise, then there

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will be people who voted leave who said Hang on, this is not what I was

:04:06.:04:09.

told. I was told this would save money, we could put it in the NHS,

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but if it is going to cost us and our Monday leg, I

:04:15.:04:28.

would the right to reconsider. But your aim is not get a Brexit that

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would work for Britain, your aim is to stop it? If we got a Brexit that

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would work for Britain, that would respect the mandate. But if we

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cannot get that, if it is going to be a disaster, if it is going to

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cost people jobs and cost Britain money, it is something we might want

:04:42.:04:44.

to pause and rethink. The government said it is going to come forward

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with a plan. That is good. We need to know what options to go for as a

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country. Do we want to stay in the single market, the customs union,

:04:56.:04:59.

the various agencies? And options should be costed so we can all see

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how much they cost of Brexit will be. If you were simply going to try

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and make the resolution is more illegal, why did the constitutional

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committee vote them down? This is a report about future treaty

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amendments down the road for years to come. This was not the main focus

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of the report, it was a side reference, in which was put the idea

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for Association partnerships. Will you push for the idea before the

:05:36.:05:46.

full parliament? I must see what the text is. You said there is a

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widespread view in labour that if the Brexit view is bad we should not

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exclude everything, I take it you mean another referendum. When you

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were named down these amendments, was this just acting on your own

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initiative, or acting on behalf of the Labour Party? I am just be

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humble lame-duck MEP in the European Parliament. It makes sense from any

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point of view that if the course of action you have embarked on turns

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out to be much more costly and disastrous than you had anticipated,

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that you might want the chance to think again. You might come to the

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same conclusion, of course, but you might think, wait a minute, let's

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have a look at this. But let's be clear, even though you are deputy

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leader of Labour in the European Parliament, you're acting alone and

:06:43.:06:50.

not as Labour Party policy? I am acting in the constitutional affairs

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committee. All I am doing is stating things which are common sense. If as

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we move forward then this turns out to be a disaster, we need to look

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very carefully at where we are going. But if a deal is done under

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Article 50, and we get to see the shape of that deal by the end of

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2019 under the two-year timetable, in your words, we won't know if it

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is a disaster or not until it is implemented. We won't be able to

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tell until we see the results about whether it is good or bad, surely?

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We might well be able to, because that has to take account of the

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future framework of relationships with the European Union, to quote

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the article of the treaty. That means we should have some idea about

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what that will be like. Will we be outside the customs union, for

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instance, which will be very damaging for our economy? Or will we

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have to stay inside and follow the rules without having a say on them.

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We won't know until we leave the customs union. You think it will be

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damaging, others think it will give us the opportunity to do massive

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trade deals. My case this morning is not what is right or wrong, we will

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not know until we have seen the results. We will know a heck of a

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lot more than we do now when we see that Article 50 divorce agreement.

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We will know the terms of the divorce, we will know how much we

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still have to pay into the EU budget for legacy costs. We will know

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whether we will be in the single market customs union or not. We will

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know about the agencies. We will know a lot of things. If the deal on

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the table looks as if it will be damaging to Britain, then Parliament

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will be in its rights to say, wait a minute, not this deal. And then you

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either renegotiate or you reconsider the whole issue of Brexit or you

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find another solution. We need to leave it there but thank you for

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joining us. Iain Martin, how serious is the

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attempt to in effect an wind what happened on June 23? I think it is

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pretty serious and that interview illustrates very well the most

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damaging impact of the approach taken by a lot of Remainers, which

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is essentially to say with one breath, we of course accept the

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result, but with every action subsequent to that to try and

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undermine the result or try and are sure that the deal is as bad as

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possible. I think what needed to happen and hasn't happened after

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June 23 is you have the extremists on both sides and you have in the

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middle probably 70% of public opinion, moderate leaders, moderate

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Remainers should be working together to try and get British bespoke deal.

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But moderate Leavers will not take moderate Remainers seriously if this

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is the approach taken at every single turn to try and rerun the

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referendum. He did not say whether it was Labour policy? That was a

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question which was ducked. I do not think it is Labour Party policy. I

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think most people are in a morass in the middle. I think the screaming

:10:14.:10:19.

that happens when anybody dares to question or suggest that you might

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ever want to think again about these things, I disagree with him about

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having another referendum but if he wants to campaign for that it is his

:10:27.:10:31.

democratic right to do so. If you can convince enough people it is a

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good idea then he has succeeded. But the idea that we would do a deal and

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then realise this is a really bad deal, let's not proceed, we will not

:10:42.:10:45.

really know that until the deal is implemented. What our access is to

:10:46.:10:51.

the single market, whether or not we are in or out of the customs union

:10:52.:10:55.

which we will talk about in a minute, what immigration policy we

:10:56.:10:59.

will have, whether these are going to be good things bad things, surely

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you have got to wait for four, five, six years to see if it has worked or

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not? Yes, and by which stage Parliament will have voted on it and

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there will be no going back from it, or maybe there will. We are talking

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now about the first three months of 2019. That is absolutely the moment

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when Parliament agrees with Theresa May or not. One arch remain I spoke

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to, and arch Remainiac, he said that Theresa May will bring this to

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Parliament in 2019 and could say I recommend that we reject it. What is

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he on or she? Some strong chemical drugs! The point is that all manner

:11:52.:11:54.

of things could happen. I don't think any of us take it seriously

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for now but the future is a very long way away. Earlier, the trade

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Secretary Liam Fox was asked if we would stay in the customs union

:12:07.:12:08.

after Brexit. There would be limitations on what

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we would do in terms of tariff setting which could limit the deals

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we would do, but we want to look at all the different deals. There is

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hard Brexit and soft Brexit as if it is a boiled egg we are talking

:12:26.:12:29.

about. Turkey is in part of the customs union but not other parts.

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What we need to do is look at the cost. This is what I picked up. The

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government knows it cannot remain a member of the single market in these

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negotiations, because that would make us subject to free movement and

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the European Court. The customs union and the Prime Minister 's

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office doesn't seem to be quite as binary, that you can be a little bit

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in and a little bit out, but I would suggest that overall Liam Fox knows

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to do all the trade deals we want to do we basically have to be out. But

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what he also seems to know is that is a minority view in Cabinet. He

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said he was not going to give his opinion publicly. There is still an

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argument going on about it in Cabinet. When David Liddington

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struggled against Emily Thornbury PMQs, he did not know about the

:13:26.:13:27.

customs union. What is apparent is Theresa May has not told him what to

:13:28.:13:32.

think about that. If we stay in the customs union we cannot do our own

:13:33.:13:40.

free trade deals. We are behind the customs union, the tariff barriers

:13:41.:13:45.

set by Europe? Not quite. Turkey is proof of the pudding. There are

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limited exemptions but they can do free trade with their neighbours.

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Not on goods. They are doing a trade deal with Pakistan at the moment, it

:13:56.:14:02.

relies on foreign trade investment but Europe negotiates on turkey's

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behalf on the major free-trade deals. This is absolutely why the

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customs union will be the fault line for the deal we are trying to

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achieve. Interestingly, I thought Liam Fox suggested during that

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interview that he was prepared to suck up whatever it was. I think he

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was saying there is still an argument and he intends to win it.

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He wants to leave it because he wants to do these free-trade deals.

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There is an argument in the cabinet about precisely that. The other

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thing to consider is in this country we have tended to focus too much on

:14:43.:14:46.

the British angle in negotiations, but I think the negotiations are

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going to be very difficult. You look at the state of the EU at the

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moment, you look at what is happening in Italy, France, Germany,

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look at the 27. It is possible I think that Britain could design a

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bespoke sensible deal but then it becomes very difficult to agree

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which is why I ultimately think we are heading for a harder Brexit. It

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will be about developing in this country.

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So, we've had a warning this week that it could take ten years

:15:21.:15:23.

to do a trade deal with the EU after Brexit.

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But could opportunities to expand trade lie elsewhere?

:15:26.:15:27.

Australia was one of the first countries to indicate

:15:28.:15:30.

its willingness to do a deal with the UK and now its

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High Commissioner in London has told us that life outside the EU

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He made this exclusive film for the Sunday Politics.

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My father was the Australian High Commissioner in the early

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70s when the UK joined the European Union,

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Now I'm in the job, the UK is leaving.

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Australia supported Britain remaining a member

:16:05.:16:06.

of the European Union, but we respect the decision that

:16:07.:16:09.

Now that the decision has been made, we hope that Britain

:16:10.:16:14.

will get on with the process of negotiating their exit

:16:15.:16:19.

from the European Union and make the most of the opportunities that

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Following the referendum decision, Australia approached

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the British Government with a proposal.

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We offered, when the time was right, to negotiate a free trade agreement.

:16:32.:16:34.

The British and Australian governments have already established

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a working group to explore a future, ambitious trade agreement once

:16:41.:16:43.

A free trade agreement will provide great opportunities for consumers

:16:44.:16:55.

Australian consumers could purchase British-made cars for less

:16:56.:17:00.

We would give British households access to cheaper,

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Our summer is during your winter, so Australia could provide British

:17:07.:17:12.

households with fresh produce when the equivalent British or

:17:13.:17:15.

Australian households would have access to British products

:17:16.:17:23.

Free-trade agreements are also about investment.

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The UK is the second-largest source of foreign investment in Australia.

:17:36.:17:39.

By the way, Australia also invests over ?200 billion in the UK,

:17:40.:17:46.

so a free trade agreement would stimulate investment,

:17:47.:17:48.

But, by the way, free-trade agreements are not just

:17:49.:17:54.

about trade and investment, they are also about geopolitics.

:17:55.:17:58.

Countries with good trade relations often work more closely together

:17:59.:18:02.

in other fields including security, the spread of democracy

:18:03.:18:05.

We may have preferred the UKto remain in the EU,

:18:06.:18:19.

We may have preferred the UK to remain in the EU,

:18:20.:18:22.

but life outside as we know can be pretty good.

:18:23.:18:24.

We have negotiated eight free-trade agreements over the last 12 years,

:18:25.:18:27.

including a free-trade agreement with the United States

:18:28.:18:29.

This is one of the reasons why the Australian economy has continued

:18:30.:18:41.

to grow over the last 25 years and we, of course, are not

:18:42.:18:44.

Australia welcomes Theresa May's vision for the UK to become a global

:18:45.:18:54.

We are willing to help in any way we can.

:18:55.:19:00.

Welcome to the programme. The Australian government says it wants

:19:01.:19:25.

to negotiate an important trade deal with the UK as efficiently and

:19:26.:19:28.

promptly as possible when Brexit is complete. How prompt is prompt?

:19:29.:19:35.

There are legal issues obviously. The UK, for as long as it remains in

:19:36.:19:40.

the EU, cannot negotiate individual trade deals. Once it leaves it can.

:19:41.:19:46.

We will negotiate a agreement with the UK when the time is right, by

:19:47.:19:51.

which we mean we can do preliminary examination. Are you talking now

:19:52.:19:57.

about the parameters? We are talking already, we have set up a joint

:19:58.:20:01.

working group with the British Government and we are scoping the

:20:02.:20:04.

issue to try to understand what questions will arise in any

:20:05.:20:09.

negotiation. But we cannot have formally a negotiation. Until the

:20:10.:20:17.

country is out. Why is there no free-trade deal between Australia

:20:18.:20:20.

and the European Union? It is a long and tortuous story. Give me the

:20:21.:20:27.

headline. Basically Australian agriculture is either banned or

:20:28.:20:31.

hugely restricted in terms of its access to the European Union. So we

:20:32.:20:37.

see the European Union, Australia's, is a pretty protectionist sort of

:20:38.:20:42.

organisation. Now we are doing a scoping study on a free-trade

:20:43.:20:46.

agreement with the European Union and we hope that next year we can

:20:47.:20:51.

enter into negotiations with them. But we have no illusions this would

:20:52.:20:55.

be a very difficult negotiation, but one we are giving priority to. Is

:20:56.:21:01.

there not a danger that when Britain leaves the EU the EU will become

:21:02.:21:05.

more protectionist? This country has always been the most powerful voice

:21:06.:21:11.

for free trade. I hope that does not happen, but the reason why we wanted

:21:12.:21:16.

Britain to remain in the European Union is because it brought to the

:21:17.:21:21.

table the whole free-trade mentality which has been an historic part of

:21:22.:21:26.

Britain's approach to international relations. Without the UK in the

:21:27.:21:31.

European Union you will lose that. It is a very loud voice in the

:21:32.:21:34.

European Union and you will lose that voice and that will be a

:21:35.:21:38.

disadvantage. The figure that jumped out of me in the film is it to you

:21:39.:21:44.

only 15 months to negotiate a free-trade deal with the United

:21:45.:21:49.

States. Yes, the thing is it is about political will. A free-trade

:21:50.:21:54.

agreement will be no problem unless you want to protect particular

:21:55.:21:58.

sectors of your economy. In that case there was one sector the

:21:59.:22:03.

Americans insisted on protecting and that was their sugar industry. In

:22:04.:22:09.

the end after 15 months of negotiation two relatively free

:22:10.:22:11.

trading countries have fixed up nearly everything. But we had to ask

:22:12.:22:17.

would be go ahead with this free-trade agreement without sugar

:22:18.:22:22.

west we decided to do that. Other than that it was relatively easy to

:22:23.:22:26.

negotiate because we are both free-trade countries. With the UK

:22:27.:22:31.

you cannot be sure, but I do not think a free-trade agreement would

:22:32.:22:35.

take very long to negotiate with the UK because the UK would not want to

:22:36.:22:41.

put a lot of obstacles in the way to Australia. Not to give away our

:22:42.:22:45.

hand, we would not want to put a lot of obstacles in the way of British

:22:46.:22:50.

exports. The trend in recent years is to do big, regional trade deals,

:22:51.:22:54.

but President-elect Donald Trump has made clear the Pacific trade deal is

:22:55.:23:00.

dead. The transatlantic trade deal is almost dead as well. The American

:23:01.:23:05.

election put a nail in the coffin and the French elections could put

:23:06.:23:09.

another nail in the coffin. Are we returning to a world of lateral

:23:10.:23:14.

trade deals, country with country rather than regional blocs? Not

:23:15.:23:21.

necessarily. In the Asia Pacific we will look at multilateral trade

:23:22.:23:25.

arrangements and even if the transpacific partnership is not

:23:26.:23:28.

ratified by the Americans, we have other options are there. However,

:23:29.:23:34.

our approach has been the ultimate would be free-trade throughout the

:23:35.:23:38.

world which is proving hard to achieve. Secondly, if we can get a

:23:39.:23:43.

lot of countries engaged in a free-trade negotiation, that is

:23:44.:23:47.

pretty good if possible. But it is more difficult. But we do bilateral

:23:48.:23:54.

trade agreements. We have one with China, Japan, the United States,

:23:55.:23:59.

Singapore, and the list goes on, and they have been hugely beneficial to

:24:00.:24:04.

Australia. You have been dealing with the EU free deal, what lessons

:24:05.:24:11.

are there? How quickly do you think Britain could do a free-trade deal

:24:12.:24:18.

with the EU if we leave? Well, there is a completely different concept

:24:19.:24:21.

involved in the case of Britain and the EU and that is at the moment

:24:22.:24:27.

there are no restrictions on trade. So you and the EU would be talking

:24:28.:24:31.

about whether you will direct barriers to trade. We are outsiders

:24:32.:24:35.

and we do not get too much involved in this debate except to say we do

:24:36.:24:40.

not want to see the global trade system disrupted by the direction of

:24:41.:24:46.

tariff barriers between the United Kingdom, the fifth biggest economy

:24:47.:24:51.

in the world, and the European Union. Our expectation is not just

:24:52.:24:55.

the British but the Europeans will try to make the transition to Brexit

:24:56.:25:00.

as smooth as possible particularly commercially. Say yes or no if you

:25:01.:25:06.

can. If Britain and Australia make a free-trade agreement, would that

:25:07.:25:09.

include free movement of the Australian and the British people?

:25:10.:25:14.

We will probably stick with our present non-discriminatory system.

:25:15.:25:21.

Australia does not discriminate against any country. The European

:25:22.:25:26.

Union's free movement means you discriminate against non-Europeans.

:25:27.:25:27.

Probably not. It could lead to a ban on diesel

:25:28.:25:31.

cars, prevent the building of a third runway at Heathrow,

:25:32.:25:34.

and will certainly make it more expensive to drive

:25:35.:25:37.

in our towns and cities. Air pollution has been

:25:38.:25:39.

called the "public health crisis of a generation" -

:25:40.:25:41.

but just how serious is the problem? 40,000 early deaths result from air

:25:42.:25:43.

pollution every year in the UK. Almost 10,000 Londoners each

:25:44.:25:57.

year die prematurely. It seems at times we can get caught

:25:58.:26:03.

up in alarming assertions about air pollution,

:26:04.:26:10.

that this is a public health emergency, that it is a silent

:26:11.:26:12.

killer, coming from politicians, But how bad is air quality

:26:13.:26:16.

in Britain really? Tony Frew is a professor

:26:17.:26:24.

in respiratory medicine and works at Brighton's Royal Sussex County

:26:25.:26:28.

Hospital. He has been looking

:26:29.:26:30.

into the recent claims It's a problem and it

:26:31.:26:32.

affects people's health. But when people start

:26:33.:26:38.

talking about the numbers of deaths here, I think

:26:39.:26:40.

they are misusing the statistics. There have been tremendous

:26:41.:26:42.

improvements in air quality There is a lot less pollution

:26:43.:26:48.

than there used to be and none of that is coming

:26:49.:26:52.

through in the public So what does Professor Frew make

:26:53.:26:56.

of the claim that alarming levels of toxicity in the air in the UK

:26:57.:27:00.

causes 40,000 deaths each year? It is not 40,000 people

:27:01.:27:03.

who should have air pollution on their death certificate,

:27:04.:27:06.

or 40,000 people who It's a lot of people who had

:27:07.:27:08.

a little bit of life shortening To examine these figures further

:27:09.:27:13.

we travelled to Cambridge to visit I asked him about the data

:27:14.:27:19.

on which these claims They come from a study on how

:27:20.:27:24.

mortality rates in US cities First of all, it is important

:27:25.:27:29.

to realise that that 40,000 figure 29,000, which are due to fine

:27:30.:27:36.

particles, and another 11,000 I will just talk about

:27:37.:27:42.

this group for a start. These are what are known

:27:43.:27:50.

as attributable deaths. Known as virtual deaths, they come

:27:51.:27:53.

from a complex statistical model. Quite remarkably it all comes

:27:54.:27:58.

from just one number and this was based on a study of US cities

:27:59.:28:01.

and they found out that by monitoring these cities over

:28:02.:28:05.

decades that the cities which had a higher level of pollution had

:28:06.:28:09.

a higher mortality rate. They estimated that there was a 6%

:28:10.:28:15.

increased risk of dying each year for each small

:28:16.:28:21.

increase in pollution. So this is quite a big figure,

:28:22.:28:26.

but it is important to realise it is only a best estimate

:28:27.:28:29.

and the committee that advises the government says that this figure

:28:30.:28:32.

could be between 1% and 12%. So this 6% figure is used

:28:33.:28:38.

to work out the 29,000 Yes, through a rather

:28:39.:28:41.

complex statistical model. And a similar analysis gives rise

:28:42.:28:47.

to the 11,000 attributable deaths How much should

:28:48.:28:52.

we invest in cycling? Should we build a third

:28:53.:28:59.

runway at Heathrow? We need reliable statistics

:29:00.:29:02.

to answer those questions, but can we trust the way data

:29:03.:29:05.

is being used by campaigners? I think there are people who have

:29:06.:29:09.

such a passion for the environment and for air pollution

:29:10.:29:14.

that they don't really see it as a problem

:29:15.:29:16.

if they are deceiving the public. Greenpeace have been running

:29:17.:29:22.

a campaign claiming that breathing London's air is the equivalent

:29:23.:29:25.

of smoking 15 cigarettes a day. If you smoke 15 cigarettes a day

:29:26.:29:27.

through your adult life, that will definitely take ten years

:29:28.:29:33.

off your life expectancy. If you are poor and you are

:29:34.:29:35.

in social class five, compared to social class one,

:29:36.:29:38.

that would take seven If you are poor and you smoke, that

:29:39.:29:40.

will take 17 years off your life. Now, we are talking about possibly,

:29:41.:29:45.

if we could get rid of all of the cars in London

:29:46.:29:48.

and all of the road transport, we could make a difference of two

:29:49.:29:51.

micrograms per metre squared in air pollution which might

:29:52.:29:54.

save you 30 days of your life. There is no doubt that air

:29:55.:29:59.

pollution is bad for you, but if we exaggerate the scale

:30:00.:30:02.

of the problem and the impact on our health, are we at risk

:30:03.:30:05.

of undermining the case for making And we are joined now

:30:06.:30:08.

by the Executive Director You have called pollution and

:30:09.:30:32.

national crisis and a health emergency. Around the UK are levels

:30:33.:30:38.

increasing or falling? They are remaining fairly static in London.

:30:39.:30:47.

Nationally? If you look at the studies on where air pollution is

:30:48.:30:54.

measured, in 42 cities around the UK, 38 cities were found to be

:30:55.:30:59.

breaking the legal limit on air pollution so basically all of the

:31:00.:31:03.

cities were breaking the limit so if you think eight out of ten people

:31:04.:31:07.

live in cities, obviously, this is impacting a lot of people around the

:31:08.:31:12.

UK. We have looked at in missions of solvent dioxide, they have fallen

:31:13.:31:19.

and since 1970, nitrogen dioxide is down 69%. Let me show you a chart.

:31:20.:31:24.

There are the nitrogen oxides which we have all been worried about. That

:31:25.:31:32.

chart shows a substantial fall from the 1970s, and then a really steep

:31:33.:31:37.

fall from the 1980s. That is something which is getting better.

:31:38.:31:42.

You have to look at it in the round. If you look at particulates, and if

:31:43.:31:51.

you look at today's understanding of the health impact. Let's look at

:31:52.:31:59.

particulates. We have been really worried about what they have been

:32:00.:32:05.

doing to our abilities to breathe good air, again, you see substantial

:32:06.:32:11.

improvement. Indeed, we are not far from the Gothenberg level which is a

:32:12.:32:15.

very high standard. What you see is it is pretty flat. I see it coming

:32:16.:32:23.

down quite substantially. Over the last decade it is pretty flat. If

:32:24.:32:29.

you look at the World Health Organisation guidelines, actually,

:32:30.:32:32.

these are at serious levels and they need to come down. We know the

:32:33.:32:36.

impact, particularly on children, if you look at what is happening to

:32:37.:32:41.

children and children's lungs, if you look at the impact of asthma and

:32:42.:32:46.

other impacts on children in cities and in schools next to main roads

:32:47.:32:50.

where pollution levels are very high, the impact of very serious.

:32:51.:32:54.

You have many doctors, professors and many studies by London

:32:55.:32:59.

University showing this to be true. The thing is, we do not want

:33:00.:33:03.

pollution. If we can get rid of pollution, let's do it. And also we

:33:04.:33:09.

also have to get rid of CO2 which is causing climate change. We are

:33:10.:33:12.

talking air pollution at the moment. The point is there is not still more

:33:13.:33:17.

to do, it is clear there is and there is no question about that, my

:33:18.:33:21.

question is you seem to deny that we have made any kind of progress and

:33:22.:33:27.

that you also say that air pollution causes 40,000 deaths a year in the

:33:28.:33:33.

UK, that is not true. The figure is 40,000 premature deaths is what has

:33:34.:33:39.

been talked about by medical staff. Your website said courses. It causes

:33:40.:33:49.

premature deaths. What we are talking about here is can we solve

:33:50.:33:53.

the problem of air pollution? If air pollution is mainly being caused by

:33:54.:33:57.

diesel vehicles then we need to phase out diesel vehicles. If there

:33:58.:34:01.

are alternatives and clean Turner tips which will give better quality

:34:02.:34:05.

of air, better quality of life and clean up our cities, then why don't

:34:06.:34:10.

we take the chance to do it? You had the Australian High Commissioner on

:34:11.:34:13.

this programme earlier. He said to me earlier, why is your government

:34:14.:34:20.

supporting diesel? That is the most polluting form of transport. That

:34:21.:34:27.

may well be right but I am looking at Greenpeace's claims. You claim it

:34:28.:34:33.

causes 40,000 deaths, it is a figure which regularly appears. Let me

:34:34.:34:37.

quote the committee on the medical effects of air pollutants, it says

:34:38.:34:44.

this calculation, 40,000 which is everywhere in Greenpeace literature,

:34:45.:34:53.

is not an estimate of the number of people whose untimely death is

:34:54.:34:57.

caused entirely by air pollution, but a way of representing the effect

:34:58.:35:01.

across the whole population of air pollution when considered as a

:35:02.:35:04.

contributory factor to many more individual deaths. It is 40,000

:35:05.:35:10.

premature deaths. It could be premature by a couple of days. It

:35:11.:35:20.

could me by a year. -- it could be by a year. It could also be giving

:35:21.:35:22.

children asthma and breathing difficulties. We are talking about

:35:23.:35:27.

deaths. It could also cause stroke and heart diseases. Medical experts

:35:28.:35:38.

say we need to deal with this. Do you believe air pollution causes

:35:39.:35:45.

40,000 deaths a year. I have defined that. You accept it does not? It

:35:46.:35:53.

leads to 40,000 premature deaths. But 40,000 people are not killed.

:35:54.:36:00.

You say air pollution causes 40,000 deaths each year on your website. I

:36:01.:36:05.

have just explained what I mean by that in terms of premature deaths.

:36:06.:36:09.

The question is, are we going to do something about that? Air pollution

:36:10.:36:15.

is a serious problem. It is mainly caused by diesel. If we phased

:36:16.:36:19.

diesel out it will solve the problem of air pollution and deal with the

:36:20.:36:25.

wider problem of climate change. I am not talking about climate change

:36:26.:36:32.

this morning. Let's link to another claim... Do you want to live in a

:36:33.:36:36.

clean city? Do you want to breathe clean air? Yes, don't generalise.

:36:37.:36:42.

Let's stick to your claims. You have also said living in London on your

:36:43.:36:46.

life is equivalent to smoking 50 cigarettes a day. That is not true

:36:47.:36:52.

either. What I would say is if you look at passive smoking, it is the

:36:53.:36:57.

equivalent of I don't know what the actual figure is, I can't remember

:36:58.:37:01.

offhand, but it is the equivalent effect of about ten cigarettes being

:37:02.:37:07.

smoked passively. The question is in terms of, you are just throwing me

:37:08.:37:13.

out all of these things... I am throwing things that Greenpeace have

:37:14.:37:15.

claimed. Greenpeace have claimed that living in London is equivalent

:37:16.:37:20.

of smoking 15 cigarettes a day and that takes ten years off your life.

:37:21.:37:24.

Professor Froome made it clear to us that living in London your whole

:37:25.:37:29.

life with levels of pollution does take time off your life but it takes

:37:30.:37:33.

nine months of your life. Nine months is still too much, I

:37:34.:37:37.

understand that, but it is not ten years and that is what you claim. I

:37:38.:37:42.

would suggest you realise that is a piece of propaganda because you

:37:43.:37:46.

claim on the website, you have taken it down. I agree it has been

:37:47.:37:50.

corrected and I agree with what the professor said that maybe it takes

:37:51.:37:54.

up to a year off your life, but the thing is, there are much more wider

:37:55.:37:59.

issues as well, in terms of the impact on air pollution, and in

:38:00.:38:03.

terms of the impact on young children. We can argue about the

:38:04.:38:09.

facts... But these are your claims, this is why I am hitting it to you.

:38:10.:38:13.

It does not get away from the underlying issue that air pollution

:38:14.:38:18.

is a serious problem. We are not arguing for a moment that it is not.

:38:19.:38:23.

Do you think the way you exaggerate things, put false claims, in the

:38:24.:38:27.

end, for of course we all agree with, getting the best air we can,

:38:28.:38:34.

you undermine your credibility? I absolutely do not support false

:38:35.:38:37.

claims and if mistakes have been made then mistakes have been made

:38:38.:38:42.

and they will be corrected. I think the key issue is how we are going to

:38:43.:38:47.

deal with air pollution. Clearly, diesel is the biggest problem and we

:38:48.:38:51.

need to work out a way how we can get away from diesel as quickly and

:38:52.:38:56.

fast as possible. Comeback and see us in the New Year and we will

:38:57.:38:58.

discuss diesel. Thank you. It's just gone 11.35,

:38:59.:39:00.

you're watching the Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers

:39:01.:39:03.

in Scotland who leave us now On today's show, do

:39:04.:39:13.

they know it's Christmas? We all like to see the twinkling

:39:14.:39:21.

lights in the town centre at this time of year but who should

:39:22.:39:25.

pay for them? Or the businesses who benefit

:39:26.:39:27.

from the feel-good and the spend But first let's meet the two

:39:28.:39:32.

politicians who will be Duncan Enright is the leader

:39:33.:39:37.

of West Oxford District And Royston Smith is

:39:38.:39:40.

the Conservative MP for Southampton. And adult social care was back

:39:41.:39:48.

in the news this week. Not that it's ever very far out

:39:49.:39:53.

of it with this announcement in the House of Commons

:39:54.:39:56.

from the communities and Local Government Secretary Sajid Javid

:39:57.:39:58.

about the extra money that councils now will be allowed to raise

:39:59.:40:02.

through the council tax precept. Councils will be granted

:40:03.:40:06.

the flexibility to raise the precept by up to 3% next year

:40:07.:40:09.

and the year after. This will provide a further

:40:10.:40:14.

?208 million to spend on adult social care in 2017-18

:40:15.:40:19.

and ?444 million in 2018-19. I think everyone acknowledges

:40:20.:40:28.

that there is a crisis but it's not It's a crisis of people working,

:40:29.:40:35.

particularly elderly people at home on their own,

:40:36.:40:41.

volunteers, carers, it's everything. There is a shortage of money

:40:42.:40:45.

but it isn't just money . We all need to look at what's

:40:46.:40:52.

going on and then refocus So the Prime Minister answered

:40:53.:40:55.

criticism of the amount of money She said it's about how

:40:56.:41:00.

you spend the money. No, I think it's about how you spend

:41:01.:41:05.

the money and health and social care I've got some personal experience

:41:06.:41:12.

of that in my own family. I've seen six carers come

:41:13.:41:17.

into my house, three for my mother and three for my father

:41:18.:41:20.

at the same time. Now that is money that is available

:41:21.:41:23.

but not being used terribly well. I'm not blaming anyone for that

:41:24.:41:27.

because they were both assessed by different people,

:41:28.:41:31.

but there is a good example about We need more money, and spend

:41:32.:41:34.

what we could better and mobilise a task force of volunteers

:41:35.:41:39.

and others to help people at home where they are

:41:40.:41:42.

much safer and better. Do you think putting more money

:41:43.:41:46.

in at the moment would help deal with a crisis that Royston

:41:47.:41:53.

admits there is? The crisis of the moment is largely

:41:54.:41:55.

to do with lack of resources. NHS is short of money

:41:56.:42:00.

and social care. Both are affecting each other

:42:01.:42:06.

which is a real problem, so we do But we also need to work incredibly

:42:07.:42:09.

closely together and concentrate on the people who provide the care,

:42:10.:42:15.

so the NHS staff, social care staff, We need to reward them

:42:16.:42:19.

appropriately for that There's bringing forward money

:42:20.:42:26.

and saying councils can raise more. There is an inherent problem that

:42:27.:42:39.

councils who are most need have We have to look at the fairness

:42:40.:42:42.

of this right across the country so the richer areas will have more

:42:43.:42:47.

ability to raise money We are short of staff also we find

:42:48.:42:50.

it hard to recruit staff because of the cost of living

:42:51.:42:59.

being high and it's hard for people to afford to live in our area,

:43:00.:43:02.

so all these interlocking problems. Does that concern you,

:43:03.:43:05.

the problem with how much money can 1% or 3% now is getting

:43:06.:43:08.

on for ?3 million extra You can look at leafy suburbs

:43:09.:43:12.

and say they are much more wealthy, but if you have one house

:43:13.:43:22.

which is Band G, as opposed to 15 houses anything between A-C, you are

:43:23.:43:26.

raising the same I don't think it stands up

:43:27.:43:28.

to scrutiny about more money Some of the calculations suggest it

:43:29.:43:32.

could vary between ?5 It depends, it does,

:43:33.:43:40.

but most people that live in Band G houses, there are a few of

:43:41.:43:49.

them by definition. You have many more A, B, C and D

:43:50.:43:51.

houses and they generate more money. Local authorities are

:43:52.:43:56.

desperately short of houses. All of their services, roads,

:43:57.:43:59.

schools, so we have to do ... National government is the one

:44:00.:44:07.

which is hiked money out If it's a crisis we think

:44:08.:44:09.

it is, it's just going 2016 certainly seemed like one damn

:44:10.:44:13.

thing after another as a social historian Arnold Toynbee put it,

:44:14.:44:19.

whether it's been Brexit, celebrities have left

:44:20.:44:23.

for the green room in the sky The damn thing feels like it's

:44:24.:44:25.

come thick and fast. Will 2016 be remembered

:44:26.:44:38.

as especially tumultuous, Joining us now is Doctor Jennings

:44:39.:44:39.

from the University of Southampton. There's been a lot of

:44:40.:44:46.

events which have taken My expert opinion on why

:44:47.:44:53.

the experts were wrong. I think there has been a sense

:44:54.:44:59.

in which Brexit wouldn't happen. The government, the Prime Minister

:45:00.:45:03.

and the Chancellor put their weight behind the remain campaign,

:45:04.:45:08.

the polls were mixed, much more mixed than people were thinking,

:45:09.:45:12.

but there was a status quo bias that when push came to shove,

:45:13.:45:16.

people wouldn't want to face The same in America,

:45:17.:45:18.

a sense that people thought, although Hillary Clinton wasn't

:45:19.:45:27.

popular, she had a favourable rating, but when push came to shove,

:45:28.:45:30.

Donald Trump was seen as too risky It is a different world now,

:45:31.:45:34.

so you just change all the equations and come up with a slightly

:45:35.:45:41.

different result or do you say, let's just go down to people

:45:42.:45:44.

thinking differently I think we have to accept there's

:45:45.:45:46.

been some big shifts in what public and countries are thinking

:45:47.:45:52.

about the problems Policy challenges,

:45:53.:45:53.

an ageing population, stagnant economic growth,

:45:54.:46:01.

they're more acute than I think And voters are actually highly

:46:02.:46:04.

distrusting of politics. There's been a huge shift in public

:46:05.:46:14.

opinion, don't trust politics and government to solve the problems

:46:15.:46:17.

they face and they're Everyone on all sides of politics

:46:18.:46:19.

needs to see that voters have got A lot of the talk has been

:46:20.:46:23.

about national politics. Is there a feeling people

:46:24.:46:29.

care about more what's What is important of local politics

:46:30.:46:35.

is we are seeing a fragmented, in England, Wales and Scotland,

:46:36.:46:42.

and Northern Ireland, If you go to a city,

:46:43.:46:45.

London, the Shire towns, there's different politics

:46:46.:46:52.

going on in terms of the attitudes of local people, about issues

:46:53.:46:56.

like migration and economic growth. That really is a challenge

:46:57.:47:00.

for national policymakers because local public has different

:47:01.:47:06.

views about how to deal That's certainly something which

:47:07.:47:08.

happened in the American election. Royston, we've seen Theresa May come

:47:09.:47:13.

through and David Cameron go. Did you see any of

:47:14.:47:16.

these things coming? Last week's lottery numbers,

:47:17.:47:21.

that's about it really. When I left the Guildhall that night

:47:22.:47:30.

and walked home with a spring in my step we had come out the way

:47:31.:47:41.

I wanted, an hour later he was resigning and I did

:47:42.:47:47.

not see that coming. Why people like yourself would never

:47:48.:47:49.

ask him anything other than do you think you could stay on having

:47:50.:47:55.

lost a referendum but I We all wrote a letter

:47:56.:47:58.

to the Prime Minister on the day of the referendum saying whatever

:47:59.:48:02.

happens, we don't want you to go. It is tinged with a great

:48:03.:48:06.

deal of disappointment No, media types talk about it

:48:07.:48:11.

endlessly but you do know that we have got

:48:12.:48:20.

a fixed term parliament. I will ask the expert

:48:21.:48:22.

but there are ways around it. I don't think they will

:48:23.:48:24.

change the legislation. Many people would have to fight

:48:25.:48:28.

an election and they feel don't want to just yet I don't see Labour

:48:29.:48:31.

going for that. You know you get the end of a Tory

:48:32.:48:36.

government that's fair enough. The reality is, we have to change

:48:37.:48:39.

legislation and pass a vote of no-confidence

:48:40.:48:42.

in the Prime Minister and I'm not about to be one person who does that

:48:43.:48:44.

because I have every confidence With your predictive technologies,

:48:45.:48:47.

you said Jeremy Corbyn should go at the beginning

:48:48.:48:57.

of the year and then he joined You are reasonably pleased

:48:58.:49:02.

with the result you got them? He's picking up honours

:49:03.:49:07.

anti-politics move that is sweeping across not just the country

:49:08.:49:18.

but the whole world. This is a strange time but it's not

:49:19.:49:20.

surprising I think that people feel uneasy when they talk about taking

:49:21.:49:23.

back control because so many things Out-of-control politicians as well,

:49:24.:49:26.

so globalisation has had an impact which means national governments,

:49:27.:49:30.

local government, they feel they can't influence

:49:31.:49:32.

the way their communities develop and the well-being and the income

:49:33.:49:34.

of people in towns and cities, doesn't depend on just what happens

:49:35.:49:37.

locally or nationally Do you think it's a good

:49:38.:49:39.

time for politics? It is a great time to be

:49:40.:49:42.

researching politics, but I think actually it is a good

:49:43.:49:46.

time for politics in the sense that much is up for grabs and actually

:49:47.:49:49.

we are having to reconsider fundamental questions

:49:50.:49:52.

about what politics is for. People who've been disengaged

:49:53.:49:54.

from politics have been re-engaging. People have taken

:49:55.:50:00.

politics for granted. They need to say, actually,

:50:01.:50:02.

I need to participate because the people who run

:50:03.:50:05.

from economic model we've had for the last 30 years

:50:06.:50:08.

and the need to stand up On one level you could say it's

:50:09.:50:11.

mistrusting of politics that We've have the referendum

:50:12.:50:17.

and people are very engaged. The referendum from that point

:50:18.:50:22.

of view has energised people. Do you find that

:50:23.:50:25.

in the constituency? of new members joining at once,

:50:26.:50:27.

and I wondered why that was. But actually, we didn't see this

:50:28.:50:41.

new wave of people coming. It's people that are just

:50:42.:50:54.

energised with a referendum and other things have happened

:50:55.:50:57.

recently and now want to get involved, which is really refreshing

:50:58.:50:59.

actually because if we needed anything, we do need some new blood

:51:00.:51:02.

in all this and it's all right for Duncan and I to talk

:51:03.:51:05.

about politics needs These new people,

:51:06.:51:07.

they will change things. Recycled anyway, after

:51:08.:51:21.

such a tumultuous year, we need a bit of something

:51:22.:51:27.

to provide some festive spirit. And what better than twinkly lights

:51:28.:51:30.

in the town centres? Has it all been a bit bah

:51:31.:51:37.

humbug in the last year or is there some light shining

:51:38.:51:40.

in the darkness? We sent Frankie out

:51:41.:51:43.

in search of illumination. It's the most wonderful

:51:44.:51:44.

time of the year. In all its sparkling

:51:45.:51:52.

twinkling glory. Behind each bulb, a string of tinsel

:51:53.:52:01.

and the all-important And it's not Santa and his elves

:52:02.:52:04.

that gets the bill but usually In Southampton, the council spent

:52:05.:52:11.

?52,000 and say it's worth it. Last year we got over 1 million

:52:12.:52:18.

visitors falls on average, 60% spend between ?5-?20 each which

:52:19.:52:26.

is phenomenal. As a council and a city,

:52:27.:52:28.

working with partners, we are trying to take advantage

:52:29.:52:30.

of that and why shouldn't we? But is it time for hard up councils

:52:31.:52:41.

to pull the plug on Christmas decorations in an attempt

:52:42.:52:44.

to save cash? If it's in the town

:52:45.:52:46.

centre I think the local I don't think the local

:52:47.:52:48.

authority should pay for it. In some places, where they don't,

:52:49.:52:55.

business improvement districts Business improvement district

:52:56.:52:57.

is when local businesses come together to vote to invest

:52:58.:53:01.

in the local area and, in Reading, part of that means

:53:02.:53:03.

the Christmas lights. Between them, over 500 businesses

:53:04.:53:06.

will be spending ?400,000 over five They want to attract as many people

:53:07.:53:11.

as possible because 40% of their annual turnover is made

:53:12.:53:17.

over the Christmas period. Christmas is a key part

:53:18.:53:22.

of the business plan. And so we had a resounding

:53:23.:53:27.

vote in favour. I think there's an expectation

:53:28.:53:29.

amongst the public as well that there are Christmas lights

:53:30.:53:32.

and good Christmas lights Here in Bournemouth,

:53:33.:53:35.

the council put ?44,000 Beyond that, the town centre assign

:53:36.:53:45.

a portion of their budget In Winchester, the City Council

:53:46.:53:51.

spent nearly ?7,000 on decorations. The local bid contributed around

:53:52.:53:58.

?45,000 for the city centre lights In Oxford, the City Council

:53:59.:54:00.

pays for everything. Over the years, Southampton

:54:01.:54:06.

City Council's feeling about Christmas has been a little

:54:07.:54:15.

bah humbug for them some years they've had lights

:54:16.:54:18.

and others none at all. But despite having to save ?40

:54:19.:54:21.

million over four years, it hss reintroduced the lights

:54:22.:54:26.

and decorations last year Budget time is always

:54:27.:54:28.

extremely difficult. We are still being savagely cut

:54:29.:54:36.

by central government. As a council, we can

:54:37.:54:45.

continue to work with local businesses,

:54:46.:54:47.

work with our partners so that we can still have a growing,

:54:48.:54:49.

thriving local economy. And does the taxpayer think

:54:50.:54:53.

it's value for money? If you didn't have the lights

:54:54.:54:57.

you wouldn't have it. I think there should

:54:58.:55:01.

be more, actually. I went to London yesterday

:55:02.:55:08.

and it was brilliant up there. Look at the people,

:55:09.:55:11.

the shoppers, the children. Five or six years ago

:55:12.:55:16.

there was hardly anything. It's lovely, but the public

:55:17.:55:19.

should be spared. Christmas now is

:55:20.:55:24.

commercial, isn't it? Commercial or not, whoever pays,

:55:25.:55:32.

it looks like the lights won't be So who should be paying,

:55:33.:55:35.

the businesses or the councils? Is it different solutions

:55:36.:55:51.

for different places? It all comes down to

:55:52.:55:56.

the community anyway one way All the areas I know,

:55:57.:55:59.

we've looked at council spending in that clip,

:56:00.:56:04.

but everywhere I have been, the shops pay a lot towards making

:56:05.:56:07.

the towns look beautiful and it's It is a special time and it's

:56:08.:56:10.

keeping the high streets alive and there's a lot of pressure

:56:11.:56:15.

from online retailers so it's really good I think to make a bit

:56:16.:56:18.

of a splash and make the place look beautiful and Oxfordshire looks

:56:19.:56:22.

beautiful at the moment. Winchester seems to be the Christmas

:56:23.:56:26.

capital or tries to think it is, and they have a lot of money

:56:27.:56:33.

spent on it. It's a thing of pulling people

:56:34.:56:37.

from one town centre to another. The idea of the retailers is to put

:56:38.:56:41.

on the best display they can and hopefully people will go

:56:42.:56:50.

to their shops and not For Southampton, you know,

:56:51.:56:52.

who should pay or shouldn't, Although the German

:56:53.:57:00.

market takes away some The German market pays to be

:57:01.:57:04.

there in the first place. That comes along to run a market

:57:05.:57:08.

over the Christmas period, so there is a revenue contribution

:57:09.:57:10.

to the Council from that. I don't think the businesses lose

:57:11.:57:13.

much business because they don't sell the same product so it brings

:57:14.:57:16.

people in the cars there something they come in for and that should

:57:17.:57:20.

help the businesses. I think the businesses should pay

:57:21.:57:22.

unless it's a business It's going to have a business

:57:23.:57:24.

improvement centre for the future. When you are running the council,

:57:25.:57:33.

you were the Grinch. It was an experiment, Peter,

:57:34.:57:39.

if I may put it that way. What I thought was an expected

:57:40.:57:52.

was and what I hoped was that if the council didn't continue

:57:53.:57:59.

to fund the Christmas lights, and they were tired and shabby

:58:00.:58:01.

by then anyway, and we were told we had to invest a lot

:58:02.:58:05.

more to bring them back, actually I believed na vely it

:58:06.:58:07.

would turn out that the businesses would do that themselves

:58:08.:58:10.

because they were the ones that If we were keeping the business

:58:11.:58:13.

rates, you could from the business rates or whatever say we will invest

:58:14.:58:17.

in the town get more in and more business rates and then we can spend

:58:18.:58:20.

it on social care and the rest. But if we're just paying

:58:21.:58:31.

so the town looks nice, businesses can do particularly well

:58:32.:58:33.

when they are competing against other towns,

:58:34.:58:37.

I don't think that's a function You have free parking

:58:38.:58:40.

in West Oxfordshire. Yes, free parking, yes,

:58:41.:58:42.

and that's another thing which hopefully goes

:58:43.:58:44.

to keeping our high streets It you got away you thought

:58:45.:58:46.

you would lose shoppers to Oxford? No, small businesses,

:58:47.:58:53.

retail businesses in the area. They benefit, we think,

:58:54.:58:55.

and pay business rates, and contribute to a healthier

:58:56.:58:57.

community because we A regular round-up of the political

:58:58.:59:01.

week in the South in 60 seconds. No trains and no end in sight

:59:02.:59:17.

for the Southern rail dispute. Commuters stranded working

:59:18.:59:22.

from home, vented their Travelling with you is

:59:23.:59:26.

like a form of torture. Outside the Department

:59:27.:59:31.

for Transport, protesters to the Transport Secretary for him

:59:32.:59:37.

to play with with no Oxford, he had something to smile

:59:38.:59:41.

about, the new Chilton service. We are carrying more passengers

:59:42.:59:49.

today than Victorian times With Syria dominating the news,

:59:50.:59:51.

at PMQs, Victoria Prentice raised the shortage of prosthetic limbs

:59:52.:00:14.

in Aleppo 's Hospital. And the Guildford fringe is one

:00:15.:00:16.

of the first to offer their company a salary upfront rather

:00:17.:00:21.

than a share of takings. So you're backing Jeremy

:00:22.:00:25.

Corbyn anti-austerity, Are you backing the union strikes,

:00:26.:00:27.

causing trouble for commuters? I'm backing investment

:00:28.:00:31.

in the railways and the unions are onto something a little quiet

:00:32.:00:35.

safety and investment We have a steam powered government

:00:36.:00:37.

trying to wreck our 21st-century railway and I'm really pleased

:00:38.:00:41.

to see incidentally Oxford and London that Labour should be

:00:42.:00:43.

going, investigating new services. You don't think the use of strikes

:00:44.:00:45.

and industrial muscle is going to leave Jeremy Corbyn

:00:46.:00:50.

tarred with a bad brush? You know industrial relations

:00:51.:00:54.

are not going the right ACAS is the way to go and I'm sorry

:00:55.:01:03.

they haven't made more movement this week to solve it

:01:04.:01:08.

because all the people who rely on those services,

:01:09.:01:10.

it's a desperate time for them. The unions' fault or

:01:11.:01:15.

the government's fault? I think this is gone on for far too

:01:16.:01:17.

long and the government should have stepped in earlier to mediate

:01:18.:01:21.

if ACAS wasn't going to find a way forward but I think it's gone

:01:22.:01:26.

on for far too long. We can argue matters all day

:01:27.:01:29.

long but passengers, when you were just half an hour late

:01:30.:01:31.

on a train, some of these people are taking four hours

:01:32.:01:39.

or the train does not turn up at all and it on and on and

:01:40.:01:42.

on and it doesn't matter now whose fault it is ,

:01:43.:01:45.

they have to sort it out. Politics needs to sort it

:01:46.:01:48.

out one way or another. So that's the Sunday

:01:49.:01:51.

Politics in the South. We're off now until

:01:52.:01:53.

the 15th of January. And for the last time,

:01:54.:01:58.

in 2016, from us here on the Sunday Politics in the south,

:01:59.:02:03.

it is back to Andrew. Will Article 50 be triggered

:02:04.:02:06.

by the end of March, will President Trump start work

:02:07.:02:20.

on his wall and will Front National's Marine Le Pen

:02:21.:02:23.

provide the next electoral shock? 2016, the Brexit for Britain and

:02:24.:02:48.

Trump for the rest of the world. Let's look back and see what one of

:02:49.:02:50.

you said about Brexit. If Mr Cameron loses the referendum

:02:51.:02:54.

and it is this year, will he be Prime Minister at the end

:02:55.:02:57.

of the year? I don't think he will lose

:02:58.:02:59.

the referendum, so I'm feeling It was clear if he did lose the

:03:00.:03:13.

referendum he would be out. I would like to say in retrospect I saw that

:03:14.:03:17.

coming on a long and I was just saying it to make good television!

:03:18.:03:23.

It is Christmas so I will be benign towards my panel! It is possible,

:03:24.:03:29.

Iain, that not much happens to Brexit in 2017, because we have a

:03:30.:03:33.

host of elections coming up in Europe, the French won in the spring

:03:34.:03:37.

and the German one in the autumn will be the most important. And

:03:38.:03:42.

until we know who the next French president is and what condition Mrs

:03:43.:03:45.

Merkel will be in, not much will happen? I think that is the

:03:46.:03:51.

likeliest outcome. Short of some constitutional crisis involving the

:03:52.:03:56.

Lords relating to Brexit, it is pretty clear it is difficult to

:03:57.:04:02.

properly begin the negotiations until it becomes clear who Britain

:04:03.:04:06.

is negotiating with. It will come down to the result of the German

:04:07.:04:11.

election. Germany is the biggest contributor and if they keep power

:04:12.:04:16.

in what is left of the European Union, will drive the negotiation

:04:17.:04:19.

and we will have to see if it will be Merkel. So this vacuum that has

:04:20.:04:26.

been seen and has been filled by people less than friendly to the

:04:27.:04:30.

government, even when we know Article 50 has been triggered and

:04:31.:04:34.

even if there is some sort of white paper to give us a better idea of

:04:35.:04:38.

the broad strategic outlines of what they mean by Brexit, the phoney war

:04:39.:04:45.

could continue? Iain is right. 2017 is going to be a remarkably dull

:04:46.:04:51.

year for Brexit as opposed to 2016. We will have the article and a plan.

:04:52.:04:57.

The plan will say I would like the moon on a stick please. The EU will

:04:58.:05:02.

say you can have a tiny bit of moon and a tiny bit of stick and there

:05:03.:05:08.

will be an impasse. That will go on until one minute to midnight 2018

:05:09.:05:13.

which is when the EU will act. There is one thing in the Foreign Office

:05:14.:05:19.

which is more important, as David Davis Department told me, they know

:05:20.:05:23.

there is nothing they can do until the French and Germans have their

:05:24.:05:27.

elections and they know the lie of the land, but the people who will be

:05:28.:05:31.

more helpful to us are in Eastern Europe and in Scandinavia, the

:05:32.:05:35.

Nordic countries. We can do quite a lot of schmoozing to try and get

:05:36.:05:40.

them broadly on side this year? It is very difficult because one of the

:05:41.:05:44.

things they care most about in Eastern Europe is the ability for

:05:45.:05:48.

Eastern European stew come and work in the UK. That is key to the

:05:49.:05:53.

economic prospects. But what they care most about is that those

:05:54.:05:57.

already here should not be under any pressure to leave. There is no

:05:58.:06:03.

guarantee of that. That is what Mrs May wants. There are a lot of things

:06:04.:06:08.

Mrs May wants and the story of 2017 will be about what she gets. How

:06:09.:06:12.

much have we got to give people? It is not what we want, but what we are

:06:13.:06:18.

willing to give. The interesting thing is you can divide this out

:06:19.:06:23.

into two. There is a question of the European Union and our relationship

:06:24.:06:27.

with it but there is also the trick the polls did to London -- there is

:06:28.:06:36.

also the polls. There is question beyond the Western European

:06:37.:06:40.

security, that is about Nato and intelligence and security, and the

:06:41.:06:46.

rising Russian threat. That does not mean the Polish people will persuade

:06:47.:06:49.

everyone else to give us a lovely deal on the EU, but the dynamic is

:06:50.:06:54.

bigger than just a chat about Brexit. You cannot threaten a

:06:55.:06:58.

punishment beating for us if we are putting our soldiers on the line on

:06:59.:07:02.

the eastern borders of Europe. I think that's where Donald Trump

:07:03.:07:06.

changes the calculation because his attitude towards Russia is very

:07:07.:07:12.

different to Barack Obama's. It is indeed. Mentioning Russia, Brexit

:07:13.:07:20.

was a global story but nothing can match and American election and even

:07:21.:07:23.

one which gives Donald Trump as well. Let's have a look at what this

:07:24.:07:27.

panel was saying about Donald Trump. Will Donald Trump win the Republican

:07:28.:07:30.

nomination next year. So, not only did you think he would

:07:31.:07:43.

not be president, you did not think he would win the Republican

:07:44.:07:47.

nomination. We were not alone in that. And they're right put forward

:07:48.:07:52.

a motion to abolish punditry here now because clearly we are

:07:53.:07:58.

pointless! There is enough unemployment in the world already!

:07:59.:08:02.

We are moving into huge and charted territory with Donald Trump as

:08:03.:08:07.

president. It is incredibly unpredictable. But what has not been

:08:08.:08:14.

noticed enough is the Keynesian won. Trump is a Keynesian. He wants

:08:15.:08:21.

massive infrastructure spending and massive tax cuts. The big story next

:08:22.:08:26.

year will be the massive reflation of the American economy and indeed

:08:27.:08:32.

the US Federal reserve has already reacted to that by putting up

:08:33.:08:36.

interest rates. That is why he has a big fight with the rest of the

:08:37.:08:42.

Republican Party. He is nominally a Republican but they are not

:08:43.:08:46.

Keynesian. They are when it comes to tax cuts. They are when it hits the

:08:47.:08:51.

rich to benefit the poor. The big thing is whether the infrastructure

:08:52.:08:55.

projects land him in crony trouble. The transparency around who gets

:08:56.:09:01.

those will be extremely difficult. Most of the infrastructure spending

:09:02.:09:05.

he thinks can be done by the private sector and not the federal

:09:06.:09:10.

government. His tax cuts overlap the Republican house tax cuts speaker

:09:11.:09:16.

Ryan to give not all, but a fair chunk of what he wants. If the

:09:17.:09:20.

American economy is going to reflate next year, interest rates will rise

:09:21.:09:24.

in America, that will strengthen the dollar and it will mean that Europe

:09:25.:09:31.

will be, it will find it more difficult to finance its sovereign

:09:32.:09:35.

debt because you will get more money by investing in American sovereign

:09:36.:09:41.

debt. That is a good point because the dynamics will shift. If that

:09:42.:09:45.

happens, Trump will be pretty popular in the US. To begin with. To

:09:46.:09:52.

begin with. It is energy self-sufficient and if you can pull

:09:53.:09:55.

off the biggest trick in American politics which is somehow to via

:09:56.:10:01.

corporation tax cuts to allow the reassuring of wealth, because it is

:10:02.:10:07.

too expensive for American business to take back into the US and

:10:08.:10:10.

reinvest, if you combine all of those things together, you will end

:10:11.:10:14.

up with a boom on a scale you have not seen. It will be Reagan on

:10:15.:10:22.

steroids? What could possibly go wrong? In the short term for

:10:23.:10:26.

Britain, it is probably not bad news. Our biggest market for exports

:10:27.:10:31.

as a country is the United States. Our biggest market for foreign

:10:32.:10:35.

direct investment is the United States and the same is true vice

:10:36.:10:39.

versa for America in Britain. Given the pound is now competitive and

:10:40.:10:43.

likely the dollar will get stronger, it could well give a boost to the

:10:44.:10:49.

British economy? Could do bit you have to be slightly cautious about

:10:50.:10:53.

the warm language we are getting which is great news out of President

:10:54.:10:58.

Trump's future cabinet on doing a trade deal early, we are net

:10:59.:11:03.

exporters to the US. We benefit far more from trading with US than they

:11:04.:11:06.

do with us. I think we have to come up with something to offer the US

:11:07.:11:12.

for them to jump into bed with us. I think it is called two new aircraft

:11:13.:11:18.

carriers and modernising the fleet. Bring it on. I will raise caution,

:11:19.:11:26.

people in declining industries in some places in America, the rust

:11:27.:11:31.

belt who have faced big profound structural challenges and those are

:11:32.:11:35.

much harder to reverse. They face real problems now because the dollar

:11:36.:11:40.

is so strong. Their ability to export has taken a huge hit out of

:11:41.:11:46.

Ohio, Michigan and Illinois. And the Mexican imports into America is now

:11:47.:11:49.

dirt cheap so that is a major problem. Next year we have elections

:11:50.:11:56.

in Austria, France, the Netherlands, Germany, probably Italy. Which

:11:57.:12:05.

outcome will be the most dramatic for Brexit? If Merkel lost it would

:12:06.:12:10.

be a huge surprise. That is unlikely. And if it was not Filon in

:12:11.:12:20.

France that would be unlikely. The consensus it it will be Francois

:12:21.:12:24.

Filon against Marine Le Pen and it will be uniting around the far right

:12:25.:12:35.

candidate. In 2002, that is what happened. Filon is a Thatcherite.

:12:36.:12:42.

Marine Le Pen's politics -- economics are hard left. Francois

:12:43.:12:49.

Filon is as much a cert to win as Hillary Clinton was this time last

:12:50.:12:54.

year. If he is competing against concerns about rising globalisation

:12:55.:13:03.

and his pitch is Thatcherite, it is a bold, brave strategy in the

:13:04.:13:07.

context so we will see. It will keep us busy next year, Tom? Almost as

:13:08.:13:14.

busy as this year but not quite. This year was a record year. I am up

:13:15.:13:19.

in my hours! That's all for today,

:13:20.:13:21.

thanks to all my guests. The Daily Politics will be back

:13:22.:13:24.

on BBC Two at noon tomorrow. I'll be back here

:13:25.:13:26.

on the 15th January. Remember, if it's Sunday,

:13:27.:13:28.

it's the Sunday Politics. The most a writer

:13:29.:13:32.

can hope from a reader West Side Story took choreography

:13:33.:14:13.

in a radical new direction. The dance was woven

:14:14.:14:30.

into the storyline,

:14:31.:14:34.

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