18/05/2014 Sunday Politics Wales


18/05/2014

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Good morning. Welcome to The Sunday Politics. Just four days to go until

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election day, and be warned, coming to a street near you, a party leader

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on a charm offensive. They all want your vote in the European elections

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on Thursday, and in the local elections across England, too. Polls

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are all over the place this morning. Your vote could make a

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difference. This man is 11 points ahead in one poll, he has promised

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an earthquake on Thursday, but what then? Our Adam has braved the

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The polls open in four days' campaign trail, he has

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The polls open in four days' this week, a last look at the euro

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elections, and the 50th anniversary of the first elections to London's

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32 boroughs. I am in the studio, with those who think they have got

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all the big answers. Nick Watt, Helen Lewis and Janan Ganesh. So, it

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is the European elections for everybody on Thursday, local

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elections for England and a bit of Northern Ireland as well. They are

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the last elections before the big one, the 2015 general election. Some

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say that these European and local elections will not be much of a

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pointer to how the big one goes. But that will not stop political

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commentators and party gurus from examining them closely. So, what is

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at stake? Thursday May the 22nd is local elections and European

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Parliament elections. These local results should be known

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by Friday. In the European elections, all 751 members of the

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European Parliament will be elected across Europe. 73 MEPs will be let

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it by people living in the UK. But the results will not be announced

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until Sunday night, after voting has closed throughout the 28 member

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states of the EU. Nick Watt, we are in a position where the polls this

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morning cannot tell us what the outcome is going to be on Thursday,

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and the general election is still wide open - we really are in

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uncharted territory? Also it is difficult to know where we are,

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because there is that ComRes poll which shows an 11 point lead amongst

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those certain to vote for UKIP, and another poll in the Sunday Times

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showing that it is a much more slender lead for UKIP. But we know

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that will they win? We do not know, but clearly they will unsettle the

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major parties. Fall or five months ago, we assumed that the UKIP

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success would create panic in the Conservative Party, but that has

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been factored into David Cameron's share price. The Conservative Party

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is remarkably relaxed at the moment, and I wonder whether this time next

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week, when we have the results, whether the two political leaders

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who will be under pressure will be Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg. Nick

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Clegg, because they could go down from 12 MEPs to maybe just three or

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four. And Ed Miliband, because, one year before a general election, he

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should be showing that he is a significant, potent electoral

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force. So, they should all be worried about UKIP, but whereas a

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couple of months ago, we would all have said David Cameron was the one

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who should be worried, now, we are saying it is Mr Miliband and Mr

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Clegg? And of the two, I think it is Ed Miliband who should be worried.

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The Lib Dems are an incredibly resilient party. He described his

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own party as cockroaches, and incredible resilience! I think the

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Lib Dems are ready to take this one, but I think Labour are really wobbly

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at the moment. What UKIP has done, to England, it means that England

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has caught up with Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales, England

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now has a four party system, which makes it all the more uncertain what

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the outcome will be? Yes, but whether UKIP finish first or second,

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it will be the biggest insurgent event since the European elections

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began in 1979. People talk about the Greens in 1989, but I think they

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finished third. Were UKIP to win a national election or even finish

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runner-up, it would be truly historic. It is reflecting on

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something which is happening across Europe, pianist in Italy, Holland,

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France and in this country. -- populist parties. And it makes first

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past the post look absolutely ridiculous. You could be in a

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situation after the next general election where Labour do not get the

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largest percentage of the vote but they get the largest number of

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seats. First past the post works fairly if there are only two

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parties, but when there are four... We will talk more about that. Let's

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speak now to Suzanne Evans of UKIP. She is at Westminster. Now, UKIP

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claims that there is going to be an earthquake in British politics on

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Thursday. Suppose there is, what does UKIP then need to do to become

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a more grown-up, proper party? I think UKIP has very much become a

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grown-up, proper party. We have been around for 20 years. What we are

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going to be doing after the European elections, if we do cause this

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earthquake, and the polls are looking like we are going to, is we

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will be firmly looking towards 2015, getting our general election

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manifesto out, to keep those votes on board from the euro elections and

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putting forward common-sense policies which really will bring

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Britain back to the people. We want to be able to hold the balance of

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power come the general election. If we can do that then there will be a

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referendum. That will be our aim. You say you are a more grown-up

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party, but when you look at the stream of gaffes and controversies

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created by your candidates and members, I will not go into them

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this morning, at the very least, I would suggest you are needing a more

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robust system of selection? You could say the same for the other

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three parties, who have been around for a lot longer. They have got

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nothing like the embarrassments you had. I am afraid they had. Just this

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week, since Monday, we have had 17 Liberal Democrat, labour or

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Conservative councillors either arrested, charged or convicted on

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all manner of offences. In addition we have had 13 who have been

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involved in some kind of racist, sexist or homophobic incident. I am

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not saying I am proud of any of that. The whole of politics probably

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needs to be cleaned up, but I certainly do not think we are any

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worse than the other parties, who have much greater resources than we

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do. Those other parties are even putting people in power who they

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know have got criminal convictions or who have previously belonged to

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far right, fascist parties like the BNP. Can you continue to be a

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one-man band? The only time any other UKIP petition makes the

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headlines is when they say something loony or objectionable? We have a

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huge amount of talent in this party. We have fantastic spokespeople

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across the patch, the huge amount of expertise in the party. Inevitably

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the media focuses on Nigel Farage, who is a fantastic, charismatic

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leader. But believe me, there is a huge amount of talent. When we get

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our MEPs into power after the European elections, we will see many

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more of them I think on television and radio and in the newspapers. We

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are not a one-man band. Who runs your party? The party is run by

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Nigel Farage, our leader. But he spends all his time running between

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television studios and in and out of the pub! You would be amazed how

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much he does, and of course we have a National Executive Committee, like

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the other parties. So who runs it? The National Executive Committee, in

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conjunction with Nigel Farage, the MEPs, the spokespeople, it is a

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joint effort. Your Local Government Minister Stosur is, if you vote

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UKIP, you go on to pledge that your councillors will not toe the party

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line, how does that work? -- your local government manifesto says...

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On the main policies, they will toe the party line, because that is

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obviously what people will be voting for. It is no good putting forward a

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manifesto like the Lib Dems did on 2010 and going back on it. We have

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put forward a lot of positive -- a lot of policies at local government

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level, and those we will stick to. But when it comes to individual,

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local issues, say, a particular development or the closure of a

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school, whatever, UKIP then will vote what they think is in the best

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interests of the people in the borough, and not according to any

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party whip system. This plays out really well on the doorstep, I find.

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People do not want their politicians to be in the pockets of their

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party, putting party first, ahead of the people. You want people to vote

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to leave the European Union in a referendum - have you published a

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road map as to what would then happen? Yes, there will be a road

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map. The Lisbon Treaty for the first time gave us that exit opportunity.

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Have you published a road map? I am not the legal expert on this but

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there are ways in which you can come out of Europe fairly quickly. There

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is a longer you all as well. But have you published any of that

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detail? Not that I have read. But certainly there are ways to do it.

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We are the sixth strongest world economy, I think we are in a strong

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position having left the EU to be able to negotiate a very good trade

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deal with the European Union. It is what people voted for in 1975. What

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would be our exact status? It would be I think what people voted for

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back in 1975. An independent, sovereign country in a trade

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agreement, a very positive and valuable trade agreement with the

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European Union. I voted in that referendum, I remember it well, 1975

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involved the free movement of people 's... That is something which I do

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not think UKIP or the country wants. 70% of people now are deeply

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concerned about immigration. So it would not be 1975, then? Andrew, it

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sounds like you are complaining that we might have something which is

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better than 1975. I am just trying to find out what it is! That sounds

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like positive to me. We will negotiate a trade deal and all

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manner of issues, whatever is best for the British people. We want our

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sovereignty back, we want our country back. Would you be upset if

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a bunch of Rumanian men moved in next door to you? Where I live, I am

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surrounded by one and two-bedroom flats. If ten Rumanian men moved in

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next door to me, I would want to ask questions. That is very different

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from say a Robinho family moving in next door. I would think, are they

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being ripped off, are they up to no good or are they perhaps being

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trafficked by a gang master? So I think it would be of concern, and I

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do not think there is anything wrong with that, it is a humanitarian

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approach. That would be different from a family moving in who were

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learning to speak English, who wanted to contribute to the British

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economy. Maybe if your boss is watching, he will now have found out

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how to answer that question. Now, what is more glamorous, 24

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hours in the life of a counter-terrorism agent, or 12 hours

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in the life of Adam Fleming, on the campaign trail? I will let you make

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up your own mind. So, it is eight o'clock in the morning here in

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Westminster. Today's challenge is, how much campaigning for the local

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and European elections can we fit into 12 hours? See you back here at

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eight o'clock tonight. Wish me luck. With my cameraman and

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producer, we went to Thurrock in Essex first. I got a very, very warm

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welcome from Abe buoyant UKIP. They have never had this much attention.

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One candidate's misdemeanour ends up on the front page. But you have got

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Lib Dem candidates being convicted of racially aggravated assault, and

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that was not on the front pages of the newspapers. Houdini is fine but

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it must be applied evenly. Have you had to sack Thurrock UKIP members

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for dodgy tweets or anything? Oh, God, no. Next we head to meet a top

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Tory in a different area. We are heading to Eastbourne. But stuck in

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traffic. We are going to miss William Hague. We got there, just in

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time, to ask the really big questions. David Cameron went to

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Nando De Colo last week, where are you going to go for lunch? I do not

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even get time for lunch. I think something in the back of the car. We

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will go down the street and see what people have got to say. Even the

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Foreign Secretary has depressed the flesh at election time? Even the

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Foreign Secretary meets real people. The message William Hague impresses

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upon everyone he meets is that the Tories are the only party offering a

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referendum on our membership of the EU. He's off for lunch in the limo.

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I've got five minutes by the beach. This is the best thing about

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elections, lunch. Do you want one? And chips are weirdly relevant at

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our next stop - the Green Party battle bus which is parked in

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Ashford in Kent. What is special about this vehicle? It runs from

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chip fat oil so it is more friendly to the environment. But boss was

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boiling. The next stop is Gillingham to see Labour. Labour have just

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hired Barack Obama's election guru David Axelrod to help them craft

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their message. What does David Axelrod know about the people who

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live on the street? I know the local details but you handle those. Ed

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Miliband and his party have had to handle a few dodgy opinion polls

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lately, prompting some leadership speculation from one activist. Who

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is your favourite Labour politician? Ed Balls. Back in the car and we're

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flagging. Final stop, Southwark in south London. We are in the right

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place, this is Simon Hughes' Lib Dem taxi. The Lib Dems are campaigning

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as the party of in. But are they in trouble? Your party president said

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the party would be wiped out and lose its MEPs. Is that helpful? If

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he did say that, then no, that's not terribly helpful. And let's not

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forget, every London council is having elections too. I have 40

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minutes to get back to the office in Westminster, which calls for

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something drastic, like this. After 212 miles, but will be make it home

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for eight? We have made it, aided, 12 hours of pure politics. Happy

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elections, everyone. Adam Fleming impersonating Jack

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Bauer! Natalie Bennett is in our studio, welcome back. The Greens

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used to be the upcoming party in Britain, now it is UKIP. What went

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wrong? We are in a very good place, looking towards travelling our MEPs

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and we could be the fourth largest group in Parliament after these

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elections. More and more people are recognising we are the only party

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calling for real change, the only party saying we have two stop making

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poor, disadvantaged young people over the mistakes bankers. You have

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made a strong pro-environment stands synonymous with the politics of the

:18:58.:19:04.

left, why have you done that? Why should an equal minded Conservative

:19:05.:19:08.

vote for you? I think one of the reasons why many Conservatives, I

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met them in Chester where they are stopping coalbed methane

:19:17.:19:19.

exploration, lots of Conservatives are looking to vote for us beyond

:19:20.:19:25.

issues like fracking and the Green belt, and many of them are concerned

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about the fact we haven't reformed the banks. This morning we had the

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Bank of England chief coming out and saying we have a huge house price

:19:35.:19:40.

bubble and people recognise that many of the parties offering the

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same are not working. And yet the polls show that the hardline

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greenery is not winning. We are looking to travel our number of MEPs

:19:58.:20:01.

and we have people recognising that we have to change the way our

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economic 's, politics and society works so that everyone has

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sufficient resources within the limits of the one planet because one

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planet is all we have got. You want all electricity to be generated by

:20:18.:20:22.

renewables, is that right? So where would the electricity come from on

:20:23.:20:28.

days when the wind is not blowing? Most of the electricity is there. It

:20:29.:20:34.

is mature. We need to be hooked into a European wide grid, we need a

:20:35.:20:38.

smart grid that will allow for demand to be adjusted according to

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supply. So we would take French nuclear power, would we? We need to

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work with a partnership across Europe. We are being left behind and

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we are losing opportunities. 50% of German renewable electricity is

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owned by communities and it stays within communities, rather than the

:21:05.:21:14.

big six energy companies. So you have still got to take the French

:21:15.:21:25.

nuclear power. What we need to do... Nuclear is a dead technology,

:21:26.:21:31.

going down in the developed world. At the moment the Government

:21:32.:21:34.

proposes the most expensive proposal for Britain and yet the last two

:21:35.:21:41.

plans took 17 years to bring online, way too slow for what we need now.

:21:42.:21:46.

We know what the Green council would be like if you were to win more

:21:47.:21:50.

seats on Thursday because you run Brighton. Your own Green MP joined

:21:51.:21:56.

strikers against the council, the local Greens are at each other's

:21:57.:22:02.

throats, a council ridden with factionalism, attempts to raise

:22:03.:22:06.

council tax to 5%, attempted coups against the local Green leader by

:22:07.:22:11.

other Greens and you have had to bring in mediators. If you look at

:22:12.:22:17.

the life of people in Brighton and Hove, it has seen its visitor

:22:18.:22:22.

numbers go up by 50,000, it has become the top seaside resort in

:22:23.:22:29.

Britain, we have seen GCSE results going up significantly. These are

:22:30.:22:34.

the things affecting people's lives in Brighton and Hove. 60% of

:22:35.:22:38.

Brighton and Hove people think life is better and the Greens. We have a

:22:39.:22:46.

debate to be had from next year's election and perhaps we can have

:22:47.:22:51.

that debate next year. But you hold up Brighton as the way the city

:22:52.:22:56.

should be run? We have made huge progress, we have found money to be

:22:57.:23:00.

brought into the city to improve Green spaces. I was on the big ride

:23:01.:23:09.

in London yesterday, and we need to change our roads so they worked the

:23:10.:23:13.

people as well as cars. Which side of the picket line were you on in

:23:14.:23:22.

Brighton? With Caroline Lucas? I was in London, travelling around as I do

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most days. From Penzance to Newcastle and many areas in between.

:23:28.:23:34.

Probably a good move. Thank you. I'm joined now by the Conservative MP,

:23:35.:24:09.

the Lib Dem MP Simon Hughes and Sajid Javid. We want to see a

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European Union resolutely focused on the single market, free trade, and

:24:20.:24:23.

only we can bring about that change. Labour and Lib Dems are happy with

:24:24.:24:28.

the status quo, in fact they would like more integration, and a UKIP

:24:29.:24:35.

party can not deliver the change. Hilary Benn, at this stage positions

:24:36.:24:40.

usually romp home in European elections and no party has gone on

:24:41.:24:43.

to form a government without winning the European elections first. Now it

:24:44.:24:50.

suggests you could become second, you haven't handled UKIP very well

:24:51.:24:57.

either. There is a lot of alienation from politics around, globalisation

:24:58.:25:01.

has left some behind and people are concerned about that but UKIP will

:25:02.:25:06.

not provide the answer. Nigel Farage only talks about Europe. We are to

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hear it would not be in the interests of British people to come

:25:11.:25:16.

out of Europe. We do want a season change in Europe, for example we

:25:17.:25:20.

want longer periods when new member states come in. We don't think child

:25:21.:25:25.

tax credits should be paid to children not living in the UK, but

:25:26.:25:31.

Nigel Farage is also proposing to charge us when we see the GP, to

:25:32.:25:38.

halve maternity pay, and he wants a flat tax. UKIP is not the answer to

:25:39.:25:42.

the problems we face and we will continue to campaign as we have done

:25:43.:25:47.

to show that we are putting forward policies on energy prices, and in

:25:48.:25:57.

the end that is what people will look for. Simon Hughes, you will be

:25:58.:26:03.

lucky to come forth. The voters decide these things. Really? I never

:26:04.:26:10.

knew that. My response to the UKIP question is that they get support

:26:11.:26:13.

because they have never been in power, they are never likely. A bit

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like the way you used to never get into power. I accept that, but now

:26:20.:26:29.

we are in government. The reality is that laws made in Brussels, we make

:26:30.:26:34.

together by agreement, and it is the case from the Commons figures that

:26:35.:26:39.

only seven out of 100 laws are made in Brussels. Actually they have been

:26:40.:26:49.

shown not to be the only ones. 14 out of 100. If we were to come out

:26:50.:26:54.

of Europe, we would seriously disadvantage our economics and the

:26:55.:27:04.

jobs... 3 million jobs depend on the European Union. If the Conservatives

:27:05.:27:09.

comes third or even a poor second, it will show that people don't

:27:10.:27:13.

really trust your promise about European referendum. They have been

:27:14.:27:19.

there before, they don't trust you. What we have already shown, despite

:27:20.:27:23.

being in coalition with Liberal Democrats, we have shown progress on

:27:24.:27:28.

Europe, we have vetoed a European treaty when people said we

:27:29.:27:32.

wouldn't, we have cut the European budget which is something Liberal

:27:33.:27:36.

Democrats and Labour MEPs voted against, we cut it by ?8 billion.

:27:37.:27:41.

But overall we are still paying more. We have still cut it. We have

:27:42.:27:50.

taken Britain out of the bailout fund that Labour signed us up to. We

:27:51.:27:57.

are now going to take that same energy to Europe and renegotiate our

:27:58.:28:01.

relationship and let the British people decide in a referendum. Why

:28:02.:28:11.

has Ed Miliband become such a liability for your party? Even your

:28:12.:28:14.

own MPs are speaking out against him. If you look at the polls, we

:28:15.:28:20.

have been in the lead almost consistently. The voters will

:28:21.:28:26.

decide. Ed Miliband is a decent man, but what really marks him out is

:28:27.:28:30.

that he is thinking about the problems the country faces. Simon

:28:31.:28:39.

and Sajid both support the bedroom tax, we will scrap it. Ed Miliband

:28:40.:28:48.

said the energy market doesn't work for consumers, we will freeze energy

:28:49.:28:57.

prices while we change the system. So why are his ratings even lower

:28:58.:29:06.

than Nick Clegg's? They will be voted for next year in the general

:29:07.:29:10.

election, and if I were David Cameron I would ask myself this

:29:11.:29:15.

question - the economy is recovering, why is it that David

:29:16.:29:18.

Cameron and the Conservatives have been behind in the polls? Because in

:29:19.:29:24.

the end the big choice in British politics is between the two parties

:29:25.:29:28.

that say, if we sought the deficit everything is fine, and Labour who

:29:29.:29:34.

say that there are things about this country, the insecurity that has

:29:35.:29:39.

given rise for support for UKIP, and we are the ones talking about doing

:29:40.:29:45.

something about zero hours contracts. The more your leader

:29:46.:29:49.

bangs on about Europe, the worse your poll ratings get. He is out of

:29:50.:29:59.

the kilter with British people. It may not be a majority of people who

:30:00.:30:03.

think that we ought to stay in the European Union, but when you speak

:30:04.:30:09.

to people about it, people understand that we are better in

:30:10.:30:12.

them out. In the elections on Thursday, that is not about who runs

:30:13.:30:17.

Britain, that is for next year. In terms of the local councils, we have

:30:18.:30:20.

battles on the ground, like in my community, where we are trying to

:30:21.:30:25.

take it back from the Labour Party. Affordable housing has just not been

:30:26.:30:30.

delivered. We have delivered that in office and we had admitted to that.

:30:31.:30:36.

-- we are committed to that. Labour have actually demolished homes. So,

:30:37.:30:41.

people want more affordable homes. One issue which is behind people's

:30:42.:30:47.

antipathy towards immigrants is that they cannot get the affordable

:30:48.:30:50.

housing they need. We as a government have delivered more

:30:51.:30:55.

affordable housing in this Parliament -170,000 new properties

:30:56.:30:58.

earning and more, over the next three years. That does not work out

:30:59.:31:10.

that very many per year. Overall housing is a lot less than it was in

:31:11.:31:16.

2006. Let me tell you, under the Labour government, we lost nearly

:31:17.:31:19.

half a million affordable homes. Fewer built than under Mrs Thatcher

:31:20.:31:26.

or under the coalition. What is your last ditch message to the millions

:31:27.:31:30.

of Tory voters thinking of voting UKIP on Thursday? First, what I

:31:31.:31:38.

would say is, Ed Miliband also said that we should not tackle the

:31:39.:31:42.

deficit, it was not a priority. As a result of our resolute focus, we now

:31:43.:31:46.

have the fastest growing economy in the developed world, and more people

:31:47.:31:51.

employed than ever before. I am sure you will have more chance to say

:31:52.:31:54.

that at the general election, what is the answer to my question? We

:31:55.:31:59.

need a Europe which is focused on free trade and the single market.

:32:00.:32:03.

Labour and Lib Dems are happy with the status quo, we are not. We are

:32:04.:32:08.

the only party which can bring about change, UKIP cannot bring about any

:32:09.:32:15.

change. Hilary Benn, why not have a referendum on Europe? If you think

:32:16.:32:21.

like Nigel Farage that you should get out of Europe, I do not agree

:32:22.:32:24.

with him, because Britain's future lies in Europe. My message simply

:32:25.:32:30.

would be, vote for a party which wants to tackle insecurity in the

:32:31.:32:34.

workplace, to give more security to the 9 million people who are now

:32:35.:32:39.

privately renting, build more homes. What Simon has just said about the

:32:40.:32:44.

coalition's housing record, it has been appalling, the lowest level

:32:45.:32:47.

since Stanley Baldwin was Prime Minister. With Labour, you have got

:32:48.:32:52.

a party which will freeze energy prices, more childcare, policies

:32:53.:32:56.

which directly address the problems which people face. I think the

:32:57.:33:02.

public will realise that. UKIP offers absolutely nothing at all for

:33:03.:33:05.

the future of the country. You used to be in favour of a referendum? We

:33:06.:33:10.

are in favour, we voted for one, we have legislated for one. The next

:33:11.:33:14.

time there is a change between Britain and Europe, in the

:33:15.:33:18.

relationship, there will be a referendum. We have supported that.

:33:19.:33:25.

We voted for it. You would obviously want to vote yes in any referendum.

:33:26.:33:32.

We would. But if you had one now, it would be for coming out or staying

:33:33.:33:38.

in, and you are going to wait until there is another step son shall

:33:39.:33:40.

transfer of powers to Brussels, and then say to people, either vote for

:33:41.:33:50.

this substantial transfer or vote to leave! Of course they will vote to

:33:51.:33:56.

leave! Yes, we are not natural partners with the Conservatives, but

:33:57.:34:00.

we do not want to be distracted at the moment by a referendum in the

:34:01.:34:05.

future in relation to Europe. Because what we have done is built

:34:06.:34:11.

our own economy back. That has been the priority. We do not want

:34:12.:34:15.

artificial priorities. The Tories want an artificial date plucked out

:34:16.:34:20.

of the air for their own advantage. We say, let's get on with being

:34:21.:34:25.

positive about being in Europe, and many people on the doorstep

:34:26.:34:28.

absolutely understand that. Yesterday, the Energy Minister said

:34:29.:34:32.

that he thought the party would be willing to campaign for a British

:34:33.:34:36.

withdrawal from the EU if there was not a successful negotiation, a

:34:37.:34:41.

successful repatriation, do you agree with that? First of all, I am

:34:42.:34:52.

very optimistic... I got that I am going into these negotiations with

:34:53.:34:58.

confidence but Michael Fallon is one of your ministerial colleagues, he

:34:59.:35:04.

said that if we cannot get a deal on substantial repatriation, then the

:35:05.:35:08.

party should be willing to campaign for a British withdrawal - do you

:35:09.:35:12.

agree? My view is that I am confident we will get a deal, and

:35:13.:35:16.

then we will put it to the British people. But you will have to take a

:35:17.:35:21.

line. If you do not get substantial repatriations, will you side with

:35:22.:35:24.

Michael Fallon all with the Prime Minister, who seems to want to stay

:35:25.:35:29.

in regardless? I may only have been in politics for four years, but I am

:35:30.:35:33.

not going to ask that kind of hypothetical question. Every

:35:34.:35:37.

question I ask is hypothetical, that is the fascination of the programme!

:35:38.:35:42.

I go into these negotiations with complete confidence. If you look at

:35:43.:35:46.

our track record, it suggests we will be successful. Hilary Benn,

:35:47.:35:54.

what is the difference between your attitude and that of the Lib Dems

:35:55.:35:59.

towards a referendum? We have been very clear that if it is proposed at

:36:00.:36:03.

sometime in the future, further powers would be transferred, then,

:36:04.:36:08.

we would put that to the British people in a referendum. That is the

:36:09.:36:13.

Lib Dem position. This is our position, which I am planing to you.

:36:14.:36:19.

It would be an in-out referendum. We would only agree to a transfer of

:36:20.:36:22.

powers if we thought that it was in the interest of Britain. But we

:36:23.:36:27.

believe that Britain's place remains and should remain in Europe, for

:36:28.:36:34.

economic reasons. But we also want to see some changes in our

:36:35.:36:41.

relationship with Europe, and electing Labour MEPs on Thursday

:36:42.:36:43.

will be a way of boosting that argument. In what way is everything

:36:44.:36:50.

you have just said not entirely sell my must with the Lib Dem position? I

:36:51.:36:57.

am not worried about that. -- entirely synonymous. It is the

:36:58.:37:03.

dividing line between us and UKIP, because they somehow believe that

:37:04.:37:06.

Britain leaving the European Union would be good for our economy. Truth

:37:07.:37:10.

is, it would be really bad, because so many jobs depend on being part of

:37:11.:37:16.

a large market in an increasingly globalised world. I have got one

:37:17.:37:27.

more question for you on the locals. We seem to have lost our connection

:37:28.:37:32.

with Leeds. What is the single most important reason that people should

:37:33.:37:36.

vote for you in the local election? Because taxpayers' money is just

:37:37.:37:40.

that, it does not belong to the politicians, and we can do a lot

:37:41.:37:44.

more and get more for less with taxpayers money. If you look at

:37:45.:37:47.

Conservative councils up and down the country, most of them have not

:37:48.:37:51.

been raising council tax, they have been getting more for less, and that

:37:52.:37:56.

is what people deserve. We will produce the maximum amount possible

:37:57.:37:59.

of affordable housing to meet the housing needs of Britain, instead of

:38:00.:38:02.

the richest minority having flats and houses that nobody can afford.

:38:03.:38:10.

We seem to have lost Hilary Benn. I can answer for him. I will do it -

:38:11.:38:17.

he would certainly say, vote Labour. You are watching The Sunday

:38:18.:38:21.

Politics. We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who now leave us for

:38:22.:38:24.

Sunday Politics Scotland. a on Sunday Politics in Wales we

:38:25.:38:43.

rode off our European election coverage the lead candidates from

:38:44.:38:48.

the Conservative and Labour. With nursing in the spotlight, are

:38:49.:38:54.

we training enough nurses in Wales? First, voting in the European

:38:55.:38:57.

election takes place on Thursday. It is five years since Wales last went

:38:58.:39:03.

to the polls to elect its MEPs. When votes were counted at the last

:39:04.:39:07.

European elections Labour had failed to secure the biggest share of the

:39:08.:39:12.

vote in Wales for the first time since 1918. The Conservatives topped

:39:13.:39:17.

the poll, propping a celebratory visit to Cardiff by the then leader

:39:18.:39:21.

of the opposition, David Cameron. Liber won the second seat. Light

:39:22.:39:27.

Cymru took the third, with UKIP taking the fourth seed and getting

:39:28.:39:30.

its first ever elected representative in Wales. The Liberal

:39:31.:39:35.

Democrats again failed to win European seat in Wales.

:39:36.:39:42.

Case when Byrne has been an MEP since 2009. She is the lead

:39:43.:39:46.

Conservative candidate in Wales and joins me now.

:39:47.:39:53.

You have been saying in this election campaign that people should

:39:54.:39:57.

not use this election as a protest vote against the UK government, but

:39:58.:40:01.

it is a protest vote against the last Labour government which give it

:40:02.:40:05.

that success we have just seen in 2009.

:40:06.:40:10.

I think national politics play into people's intentions, but European

:40:11.:40:16.

elections are important in their own right and so national politics to

:40:17.:40:20.

play a part in sentiment, but it is important to understand that this is

:40:21.:40:23.

about four people who will stand up for Wales in Brussels for the next

:40:24.:40:28.

five years, rather than this being about sending a message to

:40:29.:40:34.

Westminster. Given that the elections are only one year apart,

:40:35.:40:37.

hopefully we can differentiate between them, and the five-year

:40:38.:40:42.

period when MEPs will work in Brussels can be the focus.

:40:43.:40:46.

Let's talk about the big European issues. David Cameron has put on the

:40:47.:40:53.

agenda and referendum on the UK's membership of the EU. He wants to

:40:54.:40:58.

renegotiate Britain's's relationship. What does that mean?

:40:59.:41:01.

What the Conservatives want to change?

:41:02.:41:07.

We're running a campaign on reform, renegotiation and a referendum.

:41:08.:41:15.

What does that mean? Reform and renegotiation of things

:41:16.:41:18.

that we have been doing, certainly I have been doing, every single time I

:41:19.:41:22.

have worked on a piece of legislation over the last five

:41:23.:41:25.

years. Reform of the Common Agricultural Policy, reform of the

:41:26.:41:29.

fisheries policy, reform of the budget. We have had an historic

:41:30.:41:35.

negotiation with a budget of the European Union has been cut for the

:41:36.:41:39.

first time ever for the next seven years. Not only that, but the way in

:41:40.:41:44.

which the money is distributed to projects that support jobs and

:41:45.:41:49.

growth has also been reformed. If you are able to reform these

:41:50.:41:53.

things and get your way in Brussels and Strasbourg, then why do we need

:41:54.:41:57.

to renegotiate Britain's's relationship with the EU?

:41:58.:42:03.

There are big things we need to put into a new treaty as and when it

:42:04.:42:08.

comes about. That is about things like social employment legislation.

:42:09.:42:12.

At the moment we have a lot of things coming from Brussels in this

:42:13.:42:16.

area, and for me it is not a case of one size fits all. Or employers need

:42:17.:42:21.

flexibility in workforces. For me it is important that we maintain

:42:22.:42:27.

national control over those issues. Pulling out of what used to be

:42:28.:42:30.

called the social chapter? You want to get rid of that?

:42:31.:42:36.

Tony Blair give a veto on that, by one that reinstated.

:42:37.:42:41.

That provides things like protection for workers and maternity cover.

:42:42.:42:46.

Want to get rid of that? The UK does that already, we already

:42:47.:42:49.

have high standards in the United Kingdom. This is not about having

:42:50.:42:54.

one size across Europe. Been standards across Europe are fine,

:42:55.:42:58.

but having them control the exact level? There is talk of a European

:42:59.:43:04.

minimum wage. That is inappropriate when there is such a disparity

:43:05.:43:09.

between wealth among the member countries. It does not work, and so

:43:10.:43:15.

member states sometimes are better at setting these rules.

:43:16.:43:21.

Unless you can repatriate those policy areas, you think we should

:43:22.:43:27.

pull out of the EU? We're not the only ones saying there

:43:28.:43:31.

should be a renegotiation. Recently at a discussion in Brussels a very

:43:32.:43:37.

senior ambassador in the EU to the Netherlands said to me, you are not

:43:38.:43:42.

leading this as conservatives in the United Kingdom, we are, in the

:43:43.:43:45.

Netherlands. We have already published a list of things we think

:43:46.:43:49.

should be repatriated to the Netherlands.

:43:50.:43:52.

You are looking for allies, aren't you? Does the French presidency has

:43:53.:43:57.

made this clear that this is not a priority. You are up against it.

:43:58.:44:05.

We are. The reality of renegotiating a

:44:06.:44:08.

treaty is a big ask. You have 27 other countries to convince.

:44:09.:44:12.

Absolutely, but we do that every day, and the European Union is about

:44:13.:44:18.

trying to find compromises and solutions that work for everybody.

:44:19.:44:22.

Is that why he has not been very specific, because he knows that the

:44:23.:44:26.

chances of getting what he really wants are so slim?

:44:27.:44:32.

It is the opposite. If you put all your cards on the table you want

:44:33.:44:36.

because you have already shown your hand.

:44:37.:44:42.

It is not poker, is it? It is a hugely important issue. And people

:44:43.:44:46.

want to know, what is the alternative? If it is in, and

:44:47.:44:55.

referendum, what does I won't mean? -- what does coming out mine?

:44:56.:45:02.

Will have growth and competitiveness built into a new treaty. In terms of

:45:03.:45:12.

the timing it will fit with the need for a Euro zone treaty change. We

:45:13.:45:17.

are of the mandate for the saving of the euro during the last few years,

:45:18.:45:22.

and I have had to work on that, so I know the change is coming. But I am

:45:23.:45:27.

not talking about coming out, I am talking about renegotiation being

:45:28.:45:32.

successful. If it is not, and if there is a

:45:33.:45:37.

referendum on things as they are at the moment, would you vote in or

:45:38.:45:40.

out? It is not that simple.

:45:41.:45:46.

It is. David Cameron has said he will renegotiate and then put it to

:45:47.:45:49.

the people. If we negotiation fails, then what?

:45:50.:45:55.

There is a balance of competencies review going on which will gather

:45:56.:45:58.

information in a completely unpolitical way. It will gather

:45:59.:46:02.

information on what is best done nationally and at a European level.

:46:03.:46:07.

That is being done by civil servants in Whitehall. When we have that

:46:08.:46:11.

information we will be able to look carefully at what needs to come

:46:12.:46:15.

back. If there was a referendum tomorrow,

:46:16.:46:19.

you can't tell us what you would vote?

:46:20.:46:23.

Until we know the outcome of the balance of competencies, it is

:46:24.:46:27.

difficult to say. We don't know what the alternative is yet either. That

:46:28.:46:32.

is why we say there will be a referendum for the people of Wales,

:46:33.:46:35.

the people of United Kingdom by the end of 2017.

:46:36.:46:41.

We saw that you topped the poll last time. What will success look like

:46:42.:46:45.

this time? Opinion polls say that you will not repeat that success.

:46:46.:46:54.

Wales only has four MEPs. I really just want to be one of those four

:46:55.:47:00.

MEPs. I do believe I have given a strong voice for Wales in the last

:47:01.:47:05.

five years and I hope that the people of Wales will want to return

:47:06.:47:08.

me so that I have that voice to fight for Welsh issues.

:47:09.:47:12.

How much support are you losing to UKIP?

:47:13.:47:19.

We don't know. The polls are very divergent at the moment. People

:47:20.:47:23.

understand the need for reform of the EU, they also recognise that the

:47:24.:47:30.

European Union has gone in a direction that many people don't

:47:31.:47:33.

want. We believe we can renegotiate.

:47:34.:47:37.

Like you very much for joining us, Kay Swinburne.

:47:38.:47:44.

Polling day is four days away. There are four Welsh seats up for

:47:45.:47:47.

grabs in the European election. Here and across the rest of the UK,

:47:48.:47:50.

voting will take place next Thursday, May 22. But we won't know

:47:51.:47:54.

who has won until next Sunday evening, that's because voting has

:47:55.:47:58.

to be finished across the EU before any results can be declared. In the

:47:59.:48:02.

polling booth, there is one vote for your party of choice. The four Welsh

:48:03.:48:08.

seats will be distributed based on the number of votes cast. The

:48:09.:48:11.

parties have already decided which candidate would be elected if they

:48:12.:48:15.

win one, two or more seats. The MEPs will represent Wales in the

:48:16.:48:18.

Parliament for the next five years. They will help to decide and oversee

:48:19.:48:26.

the EU's annual 135.5bn euro budget. About two thirds of that budget goes

:48:27.:48:30.

on farming subsidies and aid for the EU's poorest regions, including

:48:31.:48:33.

Wales, and our MEPs draw up laws in lots of areas including consumer

:48:34.:48:36.

policy, the environment, culture and public health. Postal voting is

:48:37.:48:44.

already under way. We won't know who has been elected and who has not

:48:45.:48:47.

made it until late next Sunday night or the early hours of Monday

:48:48.:48:57.

morning. My next guest is Labour's lead

:48:58.:49:05.

candidate in the election. A man who I dare say hopes to top the poll

:49:06.:49:10.

next week. I will begin with the question I asked my last guest, is

:49:11.:49:14.

UKIP making life difficult for Labour as well?

:49:15.:49:19.

We are not picking up great support for UKIP on the doorstep. I think

:49:20.:49:22.

some of it may be hidden, some people may be embarrassed to say

:49:23.:49:29.

they are planning to vote for an extreme right-wing party and when we

:49:30.:49:37.

explain to people that some of UKIP's policies involve scrapping

:49:38.:49:39.

workers rights, scrapping pensions, large increases in tax for ordinary

:49:40.:49:45.

people, legalising handguns, many people say they didn't know that.

:49:46.:49:51.

What will success look like for Labour? Will you win a second seed?

:49:52.:50:01.

We can win that second seat, and there is great enthusiasm among

:50:02.:50:05.

party members to campaign for that second seat. Yesterday there were

:50:06.:50:12.

hundreds of Labour Party members out across Wales. We have knocked twice

:50:13.:50:16.

as many doors as in 2009, and delivered twice as many leaflets, so

:50:17.:50:21.

we can win a second seat, but it does depend on the turnout. So we

:50:22.:50:25.

will encourage voters to come out and vote for us.

:50:26.:50:31.

You have been encouraging voters to send a message to the UK

:50:32.:50:35.

government. Do you not worry that they will want to send a message to

:50:36.:50:39.

the Welsh government about schools and hospitals?

:50:40.:50:45.

I think many people recognise that many of the cuts we have in Wales

:50:46.:50:50.

are cuts made on the Welsh budget by the UK government. A cut on money

:50:51.:50:56.

going to the Welsh government by the UK government will have consequences

:50:57.:50:59.

in terms of services. That is what you tell people, it is

:51:00.:51:04.

not Labour's fault? I think most people accept that, and

:51:05.:51:09.

they want to send a message to the UK government that they are fed up

:51:10.:51:12.

with cuts on the one hand and the cost of living prices on the other.

:51:13.:51:20.

I talked about the Conservative stance on a referendum, and it is

:51:21.:51:25.

something that Ed Milibands. About. Do you think it is likely? It seems

:51:26.:51:31.

a bit vague. This is not about a referendum, it

:51:32.:51:34.

is about sending the four best people to Brussels.

:51:35.:51:41.

There will be a referendum before the powers go back, but that is

:51:42.:51:45.

unlikely to happen? Is that really the clarity that voters want?

:51:46.:51:51.

If there is a chance for Paris for member states, we will have a

:51:52.:51:59.

referendum at a later stage. If David Cameron is Prime Minister,

:52:00.:52:03.

there will be a referendum. Your position is, if Ed Miliband is Prime

:52:04.:52:08.

Minister, there may or may not be a referendum.

:52:09.:52:12.

The Conservatives have set an arbitrary date. What they try to

:52:13.:52:17.

renegotiate powers and feel? Will be still have a referendum? It is a

:52:18.:52:24.

mistake to set this arbitrary date. It has been said that a referendum

:52:25.:52:29.

could imperil Wales if Wales board is one way and the rest of the UK

:52:30.:52:34.

votes another way, that could be bad for the United Kingdom. Do you

:52:35.:52:36.

agree? Absolutely.

:52:37.:52:42.

Why is Labour offering a referendum, then?

:52:43.:52:48.

We are also saying that when that referendum comes, we will argue

:52:49.:52:52.

strongly for the UK to maintain its membership of the European Union cos

:52:53.:52:56.

we know there are millions of jobs in the UK that depend on trade with

:52:57.:53:01.

the EU, and many jobs in Wales. There are many big companies who all

:53:02.:53:06.

say it is vital that we retain membership of the European Union

:53:07.:53:09.

otherwise some of those companies will move abroad and will job

:53:10.:53:17.

losses. Wales has received billions of

:53:18.:53:20.

pounds of funding from the EU. It is the Labour Party, the Welsh

:53:21.:53:26.

government, but spent that money. Hasn't been well spent?

:53:27.:53:32.

It is widely recognised that myself and the Welsh governance have

:53:33.:53:36.

negotiated an increase in the funding we will get.

:53:37.:53:41.

I am asking where it has all gone. First we have to get the money, and

:53:42.:53:45.

we have to make sure that money is spent wisely in the future. That is

:53:46.:53:49.

why the Welsh governance has been consulting with business, trade

:53:50.:53:53.

unions, the voluntary sector map about the type of projects we should

:53:54.:53:56.

be funding in the future to make sure they have a big economic impact

:53:57.:54:00.

for Wales. I am asking you about the last ten

:54:01.:54:06.

or 15 years, whereas the money gone? Because the Welsh economy has

:54:07.:54:10.

not climbed up the prosperity table in that time.

:54:11.:54:16.

In the first round we perhaps funded to many projects. Refunded around

:54:17.:54:21.

3000 projects at that stage. This time we funded around 300 much

:54:22.:54:26.

bigger projects and over time we will see the impact of that.

:54:27.:54:31.

Is it too much to ask that people should see the benefits already?

:54:32.:54:36.

I think we are starting to see the benefit. The unemployment rate in

:54:37.:54:41.

Wales is about the same as the UK. Youth unemployment in Wales is lower

:54:42.:54:45.

than the UK, and that has not happened at many times in the

:54:46.:54:50.

history. So projects that have provided opportunities for young

:54:51.:54:53.

people are starting to have an impact, and over time we will see

:54:54.:54:57.

more of an impact because of the projects we have funded with you

:54:58.:55:03.

money. The EU itself measures these things

:55:04.:55:09.

on GDP per head. The most recent figures show that Wales has slipped

:55:10.:55:16.

down the league table despite having billions of pounds of EU money. Why

:55:17.:55:20.

has that happened? These figures are relative figures.

:55:21.:55:25.

Sometimes the type of projects that are funded by the EU will take a

:55:26.:55:32.

long time to show an impact. A very long time.

:55:33.:55:38.

The impact is starting to be seen in terms of unemployment. In terms of

:55:39.:55:45.

infrastructure, training, education, research and development funding,

:55:46.:55:49.

all these things will take time, but we are confident that eventually

:55:50.:55:51.

these will have a big impact in Wales and we will see our GDP rising

:55:52.:55:56.

as well as the better unemployment rates that we already see.

:55:57.:56:01.

Can you be more specific on the kind of changes that will be implemented

:56:02.:56:06.

to make sure money is better spent? Will spend more money on larger

:56:07.:56:09.

infrastructure schemes and that is good because those schemes give

:56:10.:56:15.

people work straightaway but also improve the economic competitiveness

:56:16.:56:19.

of a region in the long-term. But we also need to make sure there is

:56:20.:56:22.

money available for training and education schemes. Still money for

:56:23.:56:32.

universities, for rural areas. Wales' funding is absolutely vital

:56:33.:56:40.

for our future prosperity. Derek Vaughan, thank you very much

:56:41.:56:44.

indeed. You can get more information about the Welsh candidates standing

:56:45.:56:50.

for election from our websites. Welsh hospitals are facing a

:56:51.:56:54.

shortage of nurses which could compromise patient care. There are

:56:55.:57:00.

also concerns that recent reports of poor standards could damage

:57:01.:57:05.

recruitment. The Welsh government's chief nursing officer says enough

:57:06.:57:11.

nurses are being trained. Images of nurses through the

:57:12.:57:16.

decades, caring, compassionate, sometimes called Angels. But recent

:57:17.:57:21.

complaints about poor care maybe denting that image.

:57:22.:57:27.

Nurses are taking the blame very often, they have been put in a

:57:28.:57:30.

position where they are set up to fail.

:57:31.:57:37.

At this organisation they are discussing numbers. They say the

:57:38.:57:40.

Welsh government has underestimated the number of training places over

:57:41.:57:44.

the last few years which means there are not enough qualified nurses to

:57:45.:57:51.

feel vacancies. Bad practice can't be tolerated says the union's

:57:52.:57:58.

director, but staffing pressures can be a factor behind poor care.

:57:59.:58:08.

We are hearing about poor care, and we have to get it right for the

:58:09.:58:11.

profession and for the patients. We cannot continue to have what we

:58:12.:58:18.

would want to be a platinum service of NHS delivery if you did not have

:58:19.:58:26.

the resource to do that. The Welsh government's chief nursing

:58:27.:58:30.

officer denies there is a shortage, and despite some problems, she is

:58:31.:58:34.

keen to emphasise that the outlook overall is good.

:58:35.:58:42.

I feel that the image of nursing might be being tarnished because of

:58:43.:58:44.

some of the stories we have heard. Reality is very different. We do

:58:45.:58:49.

have real excellence in nursing care, not only in Wales but in other

:58:50.:58:54.

parts of the UK, and we need to keep a balanced view on that. We have had

:58:55.:59:01.

reports that show failures, therefore everybody must be feeling,

:59:02.:59:05.

that is not the case. He reports this week about feelings

:59:06.:59:08.

and to Welsh hospitals highlighted examples of poor care on the war.

:59:09.:59:15.

There was not criticism just of nurses, but other staff and

:59:16.:59:19.

management also. But for nurses on the front line, there is concern

:59:20.:59:23.

that this is another blow for morale. There should be a law to set

:59:24.:59:31.

minimum nurse staffing levels, according to the Liberal Democrats.

:59:32.:59:39.

Why do staffing issues need to be looked at, they say.

:59:40.:59:50.

Undoubtably nursing in recent years with the recent report or the

:59:51.:59:52.

Francis Report, they are bound to have a report on people wanting to

:59:53.:00:02.

stay in the service. -- have an effect on people wanting to stay in

:00:03.:00:06.

the service or join the service as a career. It is vital we get the right

:00:07.:00:14.

number of nurses on our awards. Nurses say that one of the most

:00:15.:00:17.

important issues now is to get staffing levels right so that they

:00:18.:00:23.

get the care they need. You can get all the latest news

:00:24.:00:27.

throughout the day with regular bulletins on radio Wales and radio,

:00:28.:00:39.

a, and from our services in Welsh. -- radio Cymru. If you want more

:00:40.:00:47.

Welsh politics, in the week we have First Minister's question Time on

:00:48.:00:53.

BBC Two Wales on Tuesday afternoon, and the Wales report after the 10pm

:00:54.:00:57.

news I'll be back at the same time next

:00:58.:01:23.

week. That's all from me,

:01:24.:01:28.

thank you very much indeed. Back to Andrew.

:01:29.:01:39.

Welcome back. Politicians always insist in public that opinion polls

:01:40.:01:46.

do not matter. Even though their own parties each spend a small fortune

:01:47.:01:51.

on private polling. If they take them seriously, so do we! Let's take

:01:52.:01:57.

a closer look. First up, how the votes might fall for the European

:01:58.:02:01.

Parliament. Back in January, Labour looked set to finish first. By

:02:02.:02:06.

April, UKIP had edged into the lead. According to today's poles, Nigel

:02:07.:02:10.

Farage's party is either down into place, or has soared ahead. Both

:02:11.:02:16.

cannot be right. It is a similar picture for the general election.

:02:17.:02:29.

Labour's lead has been cut back by the Tories. This is the most

:02:30.:02:36.

unpredictable general election in a long time. It keeps us in a job! We

:02:37.:02:42.

are joined now by the managing director of the pollsters, ComRes.

:02:43.:02:46.

Welcome to the programme. While the polls all over the place on the

:02:47.:02:51.

European election? We are trying to do two things, figure out who is

:02:52.:02:54.

going to be voting, and how they are going to be voting. I think a lot of

:02:55.:03:00.

the polls are predicting quite high turnout. They are looking at more

:03:01.:03:04.

than 50% turnout, which is simply not can be the case. So, what we are

:03:05.:03:10.

doing is predicting it based on those who are ten out of ten,

:03:11.:03:13.

certain to vote, and it really benefits UKIP, it benefits them

:03:14.:03:20.

democratically, demographically, with the older age profile, who are

:03:21.:03:29.

going to vote. Another poll gives them only a one-point lead, so, come

:03:30.:03:34.

the results coming out, you are either going to look away ahead of

:03:35.:03:38.

your time or very stupid? Absolutely. That is the job of

:03:39.:03:43.

pollsters. Somebody has to be wrong. Ultimately, we were spot on in 2009,

:03:44.:03:48.

and we are hoping to be spot on on Thursday. So you were spot on on

:03:49.:04:03.

voting intention in 2009? Yes. What does the indications of what is now

:04:04.:04:11.

a four party system mean, does it change the nature of your methods?

:04:12.:04:17.

It changes how we look at the polls, how we look at what is going to

:04:18.:04:23.

happen as a result of the vote. Predicting the number of seats is

:04:24.:04:26.

becoming more and more important and more difficult to do, because

:04:27.:04:30.

distribution is becoming fundamentally important. Because it

:04:31.:04:36.

is for parties? That's right. . Does the polling give us any evidence to

:04:37.:04:41.

try to settle the matter of whether UKIP votes are coming from? Yes. We

:04:42.:04:48.

know that over 50% of the UKIP vote share is coming from the

:04:49.:04:51.

Conservatives come people who did vote Conservative in 2010. But

:04:52.:04:55.

actually, the other 50% is coming from a wide range of different

:04:56.:05:00.

sources. And what we are seeing is that ultimately, every single

:05:01.:05:03.

establishment party should be worried, because the people voting

:05:04.:05:08.

for UKIP are the people that really do not like politics at the moment.

:05:09.:05:12.

They are wanting people to speak on their behalf, so it affects all of

:05:13.:05:18.

them. There is evidence that there is now a move of some working-class

:05:19.:05:22.

Labour votes to UKIP as well? That's right. That is what I mean about the

:05:23.:05:27.

establishment vote, the people that they can really reach out to, who

:05:28.:05:32.

are really interested in things like immigration, in those single issues,

:05:33.:05:38.

where they do not feel the political parties of the mainstream are

:05:39.:05:42.

representing them. I would suggest that for the European elections,

:05:43.:05:48.

where turnout is low, ComRes may be right or wrong, but likely to vote

:05:49.:05:56.

would seem to be the yardstick. I would say that is true in almost any

:05:57.:06:00.

European election apart from this one. Because there has been so much

:06:01.:06:03.

attention on this election, because of UKIP and the probably do that

:06:04.:06:07.

they will win second, I wonder whether it is now such a big topic

:06:08.:06:12.

of conversation, the subject of Nigel Farage, that people who would

:06:13.:06:17.

otherwise talk a good game about voting UKIP but do not show up on

:06:18.:06:21.

the day are this time around likely to show up on the day? I am not

:06:22.:06:27.

entirely convinced by that. We underestimate how many people are

:06:28.:06:34.

completely disengaged by politics. I think it is very easy for us to

:06:35.:06:38.

think, and I agree that by any other standards, this is the most coverage

:06:39.:06:43.

a European election has ever had in Britain, but still, most people

:06:44.:06:48.

don't care. Instinctively, Nick, you would think, if you are a UKIP

:06:49.:06:54.

photo, if you have made that choice, then you would probably be more

:06:55.:06:57.

motivated to go and vote on Thursday? I am sure that is right.

:06:58.:07:01.

Also, the publicity that Nigel Farage has had. And also, as

:07:02.:07:09.

Catherine says, people are attracted to UKIP because they are annoyed

:07:10.:07:13.

with the established parties. If you have made that big decision to do

:07:14.:07:17.

it, then you will probably do it. The really big question which we

:07:18.:07:20.

want to take out of these elections is, how many people who have left

:07:21.:07:26.

the established parties, left the Conservative Party, in these

:07:27.:07:30.

elections on Thursday, how many of them will stick with UKIP and how

:07:31.:07:35.

many of them will go back? Nigel Farage is very confident, he is

:07:36.:07:42.

saying that 60% of those certain to vote UKIP will stick with UKIP. If

:07:43.:07:46.

that happens, it is a real problem for Downing Street. Downing Street

:07:47.:07:49.

are basically saying that many Tories will have a fling with UKIP

:07:50.:07:53.

but they will return to the marital home next year. You do two sorts of

:07:54.:08:00.

polling, for the European elections, and for the general election, which

:08:01.:08:04.

may be more relevant to the local election voters, but what is the

:08:05.:08:08.

answer to his question? We do not know at the moment. We when you ask

:08:09.:08:13.

people how likely they are to vote in the same way, they are thinking

:08:14.:08:19.

that actually, I am going to vote in exactly the same way at the general

:08:20.:08:22.

election, they are not going to say, I am going to split my vote. I think

:08:23.:08:27.

the key point is, what happens in the Euros. We have a fixed term

:08:28.:08:31.

parliament, which means momentum is crucial. What comes out of the Euros

:08:32.:08:36.

will be a statement about how well UKIP can last for the next year, or

:08:37.:08:41.

indeed, if it comes second, it is about momentum and feeling about the

:08:42.:08:46.

parties. I do not think we can tell yet. If UKIP does well, there could

:08:47.:08:51.

be some leadership crises we will have to cover. I want to look at a

:08:52.:08:56.

couple of the headlines on the screen. Now, it seems, as you can

:08:57.:09:11.

see from the Mail, Mr Miliband could be in some trouble. The Labour MP

:09:12.:09:14.

for Rochdale talking about the mantra of misery which is Labour's

:09:15.:09:20.

policy is not going down well. And there are also rumbles about, if Mr

:09:21.:09:25.

Clegg comes fourth or even fifth in the European elections, that there

:09:26.:09:29.

will be a plot to remove him. There are not many names behind that plot

:09:30.:09:36.

yet, but Vince Cable does get an honourable mention! Not that he is

:09:37.:09:44.

plotting, but he could take over! If Labour comes a poor second, and the

:09:45.:09:48.

Tories are third, and Nick Clegg is nowhere, there is a

:09:49.:09:54.

Clevedon-Miliband agenda, isn't there? It will be very different for

:09:55.:10:00.

each man. The worst thing that could happen to Labour is if Nick Clegg

:10:01.:10:08.

loses his job, because he will be replaced by somebody substantially

:10:09.:10:11.

to the left of him, you would have to assume, someone like Tim Farron.

:10:12.:10:16.

I think it is unlikely that David Laws Danny Alexander, the two

:10:17.:10:20.

prominent figures who are to the right of him, would win the

:10:21.:10:25.

leadership. If it is someone who is quite a way to the left of Nick

:10:26.:10:30.

Clegg, then some voters might find the party a more attractive

:10:31.:10:33.

proposition. Which is why the Tories want to hold on to Nick Clegg.

:10:34.:10:38.

Absolutely. But I think you are right, there is a really big bubble

:10:39.:10:43.

for Ed Miliband here. The second big thing, I do not know if you saw the

:10:44.:10:47.

photo opportunity this week, Boris Johnson strolling through a garden

:10:48.:10:53.

with David Cameron, they got off the chew one-stop early just to

:10:54.:10:58.

appreciate the spring sunshine. But where are the shadow cabinet? I hear

:10:59.:11:03.

rumours of a politician called Yvette Cooper, but I do not know

:11:04.:11:07.

what she has been up to recently. And Rachel Reeves and Andy Burnham,

:11:08.:11:11.

all of these big hitters are not lashing themselves to the mast of

:11:12.:11:15.

the Labour election campaign. And some of these big hitters are

:11:16.:11:20.

immensely talented, Rachel Reeves, Chuka Umunna, these guys are really

:11:21.:11:23.

talented. You get the impression that they are watching this as you

:11:24.:11:28.

say and biding their time. Ed Miliband has bet the farm on this

:11:29.:11:32.

calculation that there has been this rupture between the rise in wages

:11:33.:11:36.

and the rise in inflation, although that is now beginning to slow. The

:11:37.:11:44.

calculation he is making is that in the 2012 presidential election, Mitt

:11:45.:11:46.

Romney was ahead on many of the economic indicators, but Barack

:11:47.:11:51.

Obama won because he said, I am on your side. He has bet the farm on

:11:52.:11:57.

that. But there is a big difference between Miliband and Barack Obama,

:11:58.:12:01.

which is that Barack Obama was elected in 2008 after the crash, so

:12:02.:12:05.

everything he did was about rescue. The problem for Ed Miliband and Ed

:12:06.:12:10.

Balls is that they were in power when the crash happened, so it is

:12:11.:12:14.

difficult to make that comparison. Labour is nip and tuck with the

:12:15.:12:19.

Tories, or ahead by a small amount - Mr Miliband's personal ratings are

:12:20.:12:24.

much worse than what David Cameron's were at the same stage in

:12:25.:12:27.

the political cycle, does that matter? I think personal ratings do

:12:28.:12:33.

matter, particularly if things like Ukraine gained more prominence in

:12:34.:12:40.

the media. It is a question of who you want as your statesman. But on

:12:41.:12:44.

the economy specifically, actually, the economic ratings in terms of

:12:45.:12:47.

confidence in the leader has not changed. That has not changed for

:12:48.:12:54.

years now. It is pretty stable. Actually, the narrowing of the polls

:12:55.:13:02.

could be due to the usual narrowing about 12 months out from the

:13:03.:13:06.

election, and Labour really need to use the momentum. Thank you for

:13:07.:13:10.

that. Plenty to talk about after you all go to the polls on Thursday.

:13:11.:13:15.

There will be tonnes of election coverage and results on the BBC,

:13:16.:13:19.

Thursday night, Friday, and of course, Sunday night, when the

:13:20.:13:22.

European results come out. Daily Politics is back on BBC Two tomorrow

:13:23.:13:27.

lunchtime. I will be back here next Sunday at 11 o'clock as usual for

:13:28.:13:30.

The Sunday Politics. Remember, if it is Sunday, it is The Sunday

:13:31.:13:34.

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