25/05/2014 Sunday Politics Wales

Good morning, welcome to the Sunday Politics. Senior Liberal Democrats

say the public has lost trust in Nick Clegg. They call for him to go

after the local election meltdown. And before the likely Europa rove a

catastrophe tonight. Labour and Tories struggled to cope with the

UKIP insurgency as Nigel Farage hosts his success and declares the

Later in the programme: Voting was henhouse.

Later in the programme: Voting was on Thursday - we look ahead to the

result of the European elections. And we ask "Who watches over

result of the European elections. hall spread, the Liberal Democrats

disappeared, UKIP failed to show. More analysis in just over half an

hour. Cooped up in the Sunday Politics

henhouse, our own boot should -- bunch of headless chickens. Nick

Watt, Helen Lewis, Janan Ganesh. The Liberal Democrats lost over 300

councillors on Thursday, on top of the losses in previous years, the

local government base has been whittled away in many parts of the

country. Members of the European Parliament will face a similar

comment when the results are announced tonight. A small but

growing chorus of Liberal Democrats have called on Nick Clegg to go.

This is what the candidate in West Dorset had to say.

People know that locally we worked incredibly hard on their councils

and as their MPs, but Nick Clegg is perceived to have not been

trustworthy in leadership. Do you trust him? He has lacked bone on

significant issues that are the core values of our party.

This is how the party president responded.

At this time, it would be foolish for us as a party to turn in on

ourselves. What has separated us from the Conservatives is, while

they have been like cats in a sack, we have stood united, and that is

what we will continue to do. The major reason why is because we

consented to the coalition, unlike the Conservatives. We had a vote,

and a full conference. Is there a growing question over

Nick Clegg's leadership? Different people have different views. My own

view is I need to consult my own activists and members before coming

to a conclusion. I am looking at holding a meeting for us to discuss

the issue. I have been told by some people they do not think a meeting

is required, they think he should stay, and other people have decided

he should go. As a responsible Democrat, I should consult the

members here before coming to my conclusions. What is your view at

the moment? I have got to listen to my members. But you must have some

kind of you. Because I have an open mind, I do not think he must stay, I

am willing to say I have not made my mind up. From a news point of view,

that is my official position. I can assure you there is not much news in

that! I said earlier I am not going to say he must go must stay, I am

consulting my members. But you must have some kind of view of your own

before you have listened to your members. There are people who are

wrongfully sanctioned and end up using food banks, I am upset about

that, because we should not allow... I do not mind having a

sanctioning system, that I get constituents who are put in this

position, we should not accept that. I rebel on the issue of a referendum

on membership of the EU. I am also concerned about the way the rules

have been changed in terms of how parents are treated in their ability

to take children to funerals out of school time. There are questions

about the leader's responsible T for those policies. Nick Clegg has made

it clear he is a staunch pro-European, he wants the Liberal

Democrats to be in, he does not want a referendum, if you lose a chunk of

your MEPs tonight, what does that say about how in June you are with

written public opinion? There are issues with how you publish your

policies. I do not agree 100% with what the government is doing or with

what Nick Clegg says. I do think we should stay within the EU, because

the alternative means we have less control over our borders. There is a

presentational issue, because what UKIP want, to leave the EU, is worse

in terms of control of borders, which is their main reason for

wanting to leave, which is strange. There are debate issues, but I have

got personal concerns, I do worry about the impact on my constituents

when they face wrongful sanctions. You have said that. A fellow Liberal

Democrat MP has compared Nick Clegg to a general at the Somme, causing

carnage amongst the troops. I am more interested in the policy

issues, are we doing the right things? I do think the coalition was

essential, we had to rescue the country from financial problems. My

own view on the issue of student finance, we did the right thing, in

accordance with the pledge, which was to get a better system, more

students are going to university, and more from disadvantaged

backgrounds. But there are issues. But Nick Clegg survive as leader

through till the next election? It depends what odds you will give me!

If you are not going to give me is, I am not going to get! If you listen

to John hemming, he has got nothing to worry about. He does have

something to worry about, they lost 300 seats, on the uniform swing, you

would see people like Vince cable and Simon Hughes lose their seats.

But nobody wants to be the one to we'll be nice, they would rather

wait until after the next election, and then rebuild the party. Yes,

there is no chance of him walking away. Somebody like Tim Farron or

Vince Cable, whoever the successor is, though have to close the dagger

ten months before an election, do they want that spectacle? If I were

Nick Clegg, I would walk away, it is reasonably obvious that the

left-wing voters who defect had towards the Labour Party in 2010

will not return while he is leader. And anything he was going to achieve

historically, the already has done. Unlike David Miliband, sorry, Ed

Miliband or David Cameron, he has transformed the identity of the

party, they are in government. Had it not been for him, they would have

continued to be the main protest party, rather than a party of

government. So he has got to take it all the way through until the

election. If he left now, he would look like he was a tenant in the

conservative house. What we are seeing is an operation to

destabilise Nick Clegg, but it is a Liberal Democrat one, so it is

chaotic. There are people who have never really been reconciled to the

coalition and to Nick Clegg, they are pushing for this. What is Nick

Clegg going to do, and Tim Farron? -- what is Vince Cable going to do?

Vince Cable is in China, on a business trip. It is like John

Major's toothache in 1990. What is Tim Farron doing? He is behind Nick

Clegg, because he knows that his best chances of being leader are as

the Westland candidate, the person who picks up the mess in a year.

Vince Cable's only opportunity is on this side of the election. But you

say they are not a party of government, but what looks more

likely is overall the -- is no overall control. You might find a

common mission looking appealing. They could still hold the balance of

power. A lot of people in the Labour Party might say, let's just have a

minority government. 30 odds and sods who will not turn up to vote.

If they want to be up until 3am every morning, be like that! When

you were in short trousers, it was like that every night, it was great

fun! The Liberal Democrats will not provide confidence to a minority

government, they will pull the plug and behave ruthlessly. Does Nick leg

lead the Liberal Democrats into the next election? Yes. Yes. Yes. I am

sorry, Nick Clegg, you are finished! We will speak to Paddy

Ashdown in the second part of the show to speak about the Liberal

Democrats. The UKIP insurgency could not deliver the promised earthquake,

but it produced enough shock waves to discombobulated the established

parties. They are struggling to work out how to deal with them. We

watched it all unfold. Behind the scenes of any election

night is intensely busy. Those in charge of party strategy and

logistics want their people focused, working with purpose and rehearsed

to make sure their spin on the results is what viewers remember and

take on board. A bit of a buzz of activity inside the BBC's studio,

kept and primed for the results. What this does not show due is the

exterior doubles up for hospital dramas like Holby City, there are

doorways that are mock-ups of accident and emergency, but the

electorate will discover which of the parties they have put into

intensive care, which ones are coming out of recovery and which

ones are in rude health. We joined David Dimbleby. Good evening,

welcome to the BBC's new election centre. When three big beasts become

for on the political field, things have changed. Eric Pickles says we

will be seen off next year, we will see you at Westminster! This party

is going to break through next year, and you never know, we might even

hold the balance of power. Old messages that gave voters in excuses

to go elsewhere on the ballot paper exposed the older players to

questions from within their ranks. In the hen house of the House of

Commons, the fox that wants to get in has ruffled feathers. The reason

they have had amazing success, a rapid rise, partly what Chuka Umunna

says about being a repository, but they have also managed to sound like

human beings, and that his Nigel Farage's eight victory. For some

conservatives, a pact was the best form of defence. It would be

preferable if all members of UKIP and voters became Tories overnight.

That seems to be an ambitious proposition. Therefore, we need to

do something that welcomes them on board in a slightly different way.

Labour had successes, but nobody but they're wizards of Spain was

completely buying a big success story. Gaffes behind the scenes and

strategic errors were levelled at those who have managed the campaign.

They have played a clever game, you shuffle bedecked around, and if UKIP

does quite well but not well enough, that helps Labour get in. That kind

of mindset will not win the general election, and we saw that in the tap

ticks and strategy, and that is why, on our leaflets for the European

elections, we chose deliberately not to attack UKIP, that was a bad

error. Not so, so somebody who has been in that spotlight. If you look

at the electoral maths, UKIP will still be aiming at the Tories in a

general election. They are the second party in Rotherham, Labour

will always hold what the room, it is safe, there is no point being

second in a safe seat. UKIP have taken Castle Point, a Tory seat they

will target. The question for the next election, can they make a

challenge? The Tories will be under the gun from UKIP. The substance of

these results is UKIP not in government, they do not have any

MPs, they do not run a single Council, at dismissing them ceased

to be an option. The question is, who will they heard most and how do

you smoke the keeper's threat? Joining me now, day about and

Patrick O'Flynn. Do you agree not enough was done for the elections?

No, we have very good results around Hammersmith and Fulham, Croydon,

Redbridge, and we picked off council wards in Haringey meaning that Lynne

Featherstone and Simon Hughes worked on. The Ashcroft polling shows that

in key marginals, we are well ahead and on course to win in 2015. I will

be putting Mr Ashcroft's poll to Eric Pickles shortly. On the basis

of the local elections your national share of the vote would be just 31%,

only two points ahead of the Tories, only two points ahead of Gordon

Brown's disastrous performance in 2010. Why so low? National share is

one thing but I am talking about what we are doing in the key

marginals. Clearly some were taken away from others like Rotherham but

we have got many voters back. You are only two points better than you

were in 2010 and use of your worst defeat in living memory.

That is the totality. What matters is seat by seat, that is what the

Republicans found in the presidential elections. Patrick

O'Flynn, you performed well in the local election but it wasn't an

earthquake. It is definitely true that Labour did well in London but

that is a double-edged sword because you have an increasing disconnect

between the metropolis and the rest of the country. Our vote share was

somewhat depressed not just because London is one of our weakest part of

the country but because most of the warts in London were 3-member wards

and we were typically only putting up one candidate. Even when they

fared well, it still tracked down the projected national share. I

think we did well, and what was particularly good was getting the

target seat list becoming clear before our eyes. Suzanne Evans said

that basically smart folk don't vote for UKIP. I think that is a tiny

fragment of what she said. She said London is its own entity and is

increasingly different from the rest of the country. One of the things

that is different from London as opposed to Rotherham is that we have

very big parties. I have a few thousand people in mind, Rotherham

has a few hundred. People don't go and knock on doors and talk to

people, in London we have always had to do that. London is full of young

voters, full of ethnically diverse voters, that is why you are not

doing well, you don't appeal to live there. I think London in general has

a very different attitude to mass uncontrolled immigration. Londoners

know that if an immigrant moves in next door to you, to use Nigel

Farage's phrase, the world doesn't end tomorrow. People in the big

cities know that, that is the point. What Diane Abbott is doing is try to

convince London of its moral superiority so I am delighted... It

is a simple fact that immigrants do not end the world if they move in

next door. The economic recovery is getting more robust by the month,

you have a seriously to ship problem according to many people on your own

site. Maybe you're 31% of the vote is as good as it gets. Those who go

round bitching about Ed Miliband have been doing that before the

result. We have all polled very well. Ed Miliband does not polled

very well. He has actually fashioned some really effective policies.

Unemployment is tumbling, inflation is falling, growth is strengthening,

and you have a leader who claims there is a cost of living crisis and

he doesn't have a clue about his own cost of living. I think that was

poor staff work. That he doesn't know what goes in his own shopping

basket? I think his own staff could have prepared him for that. My point

is that the numbers are looking better, we know that, but people

don't feel better off. Then why are all consumer index polls better?

They are feeling confident. They may be saying that, but people are

worried about their future, their children's future. That is not what

you buy today or tomorrow. If you ask people about their future and

their children's future and prospects, they feel frightened.

What will be a good result for you in the general election? We need to

see Nigel Farage elected as an MP and he mustn't go there on his own.

How many people do you think will be with him? Who knows, but we will

have 20 to 30 target seat and if you put together the clusters we got in

last year's County elections with the one we got this year, you can

have a good guess at where they are. A number of people who voted

for you and Thursday say they are going to back to the three main

parties in general election. It would be foolish of me to say that

they are going to stay. Some have said they have just lent their votes

but voters hate being taken for granted. It is up to us to broaden

our agenda, and build on our strengths, work on our weaknesses.

Ed Miliband may have to do a deal with him. We have been here before,

but the UKIP bubble is going to burst and that may happen around the

time of Newark. Are you going to win Newark now? We are going to give it

a really good crack. We love being the underdog, we don't see it as

being the big goal -- the be all and end all. If you're going to get a

big bounce off the elections, not to go and win your shows people who

govern in Parliament, they don't vote for you. It is Labour who have

given up the campaign already so we need a really big swing in our

favour and we will give it a great crack. The bubble will burst at the

Newark by-election, trust me. Have you been to Newark? Newark will see

from local people... Where is it? It is outside the M25, I can tell you

that. My point is that we are set for victory in 2015. I want to run

this clip and get your take on it, an interview that Nigel Farage did

with LBC. What they do is they have an auditor to make sure they spend

their money in accordance with their rules. You say that is if there is

something wrong with it. Hang on, hang on. This is Patrick O'Flynn, is

this a friend in the media or a member of the political class? Do

you regret doing that now? What were you doing? No, I was trying to get

Nigel Farage to a more important interview with Sunday Times that had

painstakingly organised. He was on there? I have told the LBC people

next door that he was running over. So you interrupted a live interview

and you don't regret that? No, because just between us I wasn't a

massive enthusiast for that interview taking place at all. I

know what James O'Brien is like and I knew it wouldn't be particularly

edifying. But your boss wasn't happy with the intervention. Sometimes the

boss gets shirty. We all upset our boss every now and again, but anyway

you could be an MEP by this time tomorrow and you won't have to do

this job any more. You can then just count your salary and your expenses.

I will make the contribution my party leader asked me to, to restore

Britain to being a self-governing country. Are you going to stay in

the job or not? I would not be able to do the job in the same way but I

would maybe have some kind of overview. We will leave it there.

Yesterday Michael Ashcroft, a former deputy chairman, produced a mammoth

opinion poll of more than 26,000 voters in 26 marginal

constituencies, crucial seat that will decide the outcome of the

general election next year. In 26 constituencies people were asked

which party's candidate they would support, and Labour took a healthy

12 point lead, implying a swing of 6.5% from Conservatives to Labour

from the last general election. That implies Labour would topple 83 Tory

MPs. The poll also shows UKIP in second place in four seats, and

three of them are Labour seats. Michael Ashcroft says a quarter of

those who say they would vote UKIP supported the Tories at the last

election. As many as have switched from Labour and the Lib Dems

combined. The communities Secretary Eric

Pickles joins me now. The Ashcroft Paul that gives Labour a massive 12

point lead in the crucial marginal constituencies, you would lose 83

MPs if this was repeated in an election. It doesn't get worse than

that, does it? Yesterday I went through that Paul in great detail,

and what it shows is that in a number of key seats we are ahead,

and somewhere behind, and I think is Michael rightly shows... You are

behind in most of them. This is a snapshot and we have a year in which

the economy is going to be improving, and we have a year to say

to those candidates that are fighting those key seats, look, just

around the corner people are ahead in the same kind of seat as you and

we need to redouble our efforts. The Tory brand is dying in major parts

of the country, you are the walking dead in Scotland, and now London,

huge chunks of London are becoming a no-go zone for you. That's not true

with regard to the northern seats. Tell me what seats you have? In

terms of councillors we are the largest party in local government.

After four years in power... You are smiling but no political party has

ever done that. You haven't got a single councillor in the great city

of Manchester. We have councillors in Bradford and Leeds, we have

more... You haven't got an MP in any of the big cities? We have more

councillors in the north of England than Labour. A quarter of those who

say they would vote UKIP and did vote UKIP supported the Tories at

the last election. Why are so many of your 2010 voters now so

disillusioned? Any election will bring a degree of churning, and we

hope to get as many back as we can, but we also want to get Liberal

Democrats, people who voted for the Lib Dems and the Labour Party. If we

concentrate on one part of the electorate, then we won't take power

and I believe we will because I believe we represent a wide spectrum

of opinion in this country and I believe that delivering a long-term

economic plan, delivering prosperity into people 's pockets will be felt.

On the basis of the local election results, you would not pick up a

single Labour seat in the general election. You make the point that it

is about local elections. Seats that Labour should have taken from us

they didn't, which is important... I am asking what possible Labour seat

you would hope to win after the results on Thursday. Local elections

are local elections. The national election will have a much bigger

turnout, it will be one year from now, we will be able to demonstrate

to the population that the trends we are seeing already in terms of the

success of our long-term economic plan, they will be feeling that in

their pockets. People need to feel secure about their jobs and feel

that their children have a future. Maybe so many of your people are

defecting to UKIP because on issues that they really care about like

mass immigration, you don't keep your promises.

We have reduced immigration and the amount of pull factors. Let me give

you the figures. You have said a couple of things are not true. You

promised to cut net immigration to under 100,000 by 2015, last year it

rose by 50,000, 212,000. You have broken your promise. We still intend

to reduce the amount from non-EU countries. I want to be clear, I

have no problem with people coming here who want to work and pay their

national insurance and tax, to help fund the health service. What I have

objection to our people coming here to get the additional benefits. You

made the promise. It is our intention to deliver it. People

defect to UKIP because mainstream politicians to -- like yourself do

not give straight answers. Can you be straight, you will not hit your

immigration target by the election, correct? We will announce measures

that. People factor. Will you hit your target? It is a year from now,

it is our intention to move towards the target. Is it your intention, do

you say you will hit your target of under 100,000 net migration by the

election? We will do our damnedest. But you will not make it. I do not

know that to be fact. They also vote UKIP cos they do not trust you and

Europe, David Cameron has promised a referendum, he has vowed to resign

if he does not deliver one, but still your voters vote for UKIP.

There were reasons why people voted for UKIP. A great deal of anger

about the political system, about the Metropolitan elite that they see

running programmes like this and the political programmes. We need to

listen to their concerns and address them. David Cameron has got a better

record on delivery. He vetoed a treaty, he stopped us having to bail

out the currency. Why are you likely to convert a night in the European

elections? If you do come third, it will show they do not trust you on

Europe. Next year, we will face a general election, about having money

in people's pockets, about who will run the country. David Davis wants

to China and get the voters to trust the Tories on the referendum, he was

the pledge to be brought forward to 2016. He is a clever guy. But if you

are going to try to negotiate a better deal to give the population a

better choice, you cannot do that in a year, you will require two years.

You are an Essex MP, you know about Essex people, it must be depressing

that they are now voting for UKIP. I do not have any UKIP in my

constituency. I felt bad to see Basildon go down and to see the

leader go down. Do you know why that is? The Tory party does not resonate

with the Essex people in the way that the Margaret Thatcher party

did. That is why you did not get a majority in 2010 and why you will

not win in 2015. We need to connect better. They will want to know about

their children's future, will they have a job, a good education? When

it comes to electing a national government, they do not want to see

Ed Miliband in office. They are voting for Nigel Farage. In terms of

what government you get, do you want to see David Cameron in number ten

or Ed Miliband? Essex will want to see David Cameron. You only got 36%

of the vote four years ago, your party, occurs you did not get the

Essex people in the same numbers, like John Major or Margaret Thatcher

did. You need more than 36% in 2015 to win the election. On Thursday,

your share was 29%. We were 2% behind Labour. They did not do very

well either. A year before, -- a year before the election in 1997,

they were on 43%. It is highly deliver the votes. We have a

campaign looking at the marginals. We know exactly where we are not

doing as well as we should be. I am a big fan of Michael Ashcroft. Do

you think he does this to be helpful? He is a great man and a

good conservative, I am a good friend of his. I think that his

publication was one of the best things that happened to the party.

You got 36% of the vote last time, you are down to 29, you need 38 or

39, you would get that if you had a pact with UKIP. There will be no

pact. I am a Democrat. It is like a market stall, you should put your

policies out there and you should not try to fix the market. Would you

stop a local pact? There will be no pact with UKIP. None.

It has just gone 11:35am. We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland and

Northern Ireland. Coming up here, we will speak to the

Liberal Democrat election coordinator Paddy Ashdown. First,

Hello, and on the Sunday Politics Wales: After a damning report into

two hospitals, we discuss how we guarantee standards in the NHS. We

look ahead to the European election results. And are there barriers

preventing Welsh women from entering the world of politics?

The health service is there to watch over us. But who watches over the

health service? This month, the Andrews Report highlighted failings

at two hospitals in the Abertawe Bro Morgannwg health board. In doing so,

it questioned the effectiveness of the watchdog Healthcare Inspectorate

Wales, or HIW. Although part of the Welsh

Government, HIW is an operationally independent inspector and regulator

of all health care in Wales. But with the standard of care in

hospitals under the spotlight, the future of the watchdog is being

questioned. The Assembly's health care committee wants the Welsh

Government to undertake a fundamental review of HIW. At First

Minister's Question Time this week, Carwyn Jones was forced to respond

to concerns about whether HIW was up to the job. The Health Inspectorate

Wales was set up in the days when this body did not have primary

lawmaking powers, so it was set up by Westminster and not ourselves.

There is an opportunity now to make sure that anybody that looks at

inspecting our hospitals in the future is as robust as this chamber

would want. Joining me from London is Andrew RT

Davies, leader of the Welsh Conservatives. And in the studio,

Tony Beddow, a visiting professor at the University of South Wales

Institute of Health and Social Care, and former special adviser to Edwina

Hart when she was Health Minister. Andrew, let's start with just

reflecting what the first Minister said there, that any body that

inspects hospitals in Wales should have the confidence of the chamber.

What do you take from his comments? Was quite surprised at lacklustre

he's defence was of health care in Wales. We know there are problems.

The report clearly identified serious failings in these hospitals,

where patients said they were in hell and people were denied food and

water and left in soiled beds. The first Minister has said that there

may be big changes afoot, possibly even getting rid of Healthcare

Inspectorate Wales. When you think of the time it has taken, Carwyn

Jones has been in for five years. I am concerned that there is such a

laissez faire attitude to this. The report clearly brought forward that

the Healthcare Inspectorate Wales had gone into these hospitals and

given them a clean bill of health, and yet Professor Andrews found

serious failings. That cannot continue. Tony Beddow, this report,

the Andrews Report into these hospitals, it does raise the

question why do it Healthcare Inspectorate Wales not pick up on

some pretty public issues two years ago. What lessons does that first

and for the inspection regime here in Wales? The main lesson is that

you have to build quality of health care delivery into the organisations

that I doing be delivering. To try to operate on the basis of almost an

external police force that is going to oversee the way that hospitals

and family doctors and dentists and independent care providers, nursing

agencies and all the things that Company macro have a responsibility

for, is really a second-best option. It is fine to have an external body,

and external resource to which those health care delivers can turn for

help and support and guidance, but just to have someone come along and

tell the afterwards things are not going particularly well when you

horribly knew that already but were not delivered struggling to find the

answers, it does not help. But schools, police, prisons all have

some kind of expect -- Inspectorate who can go there and expose

failures. Exposing failures is only half of the challenge. The other

part of the challenge is asking why. Why haven't health care

professionals held on to the values they had when they started their

profession? Some of the hospitals and health care system are under

strain. It would be much more helpful if we looked at the care

system as a whole and then looked at white bits of it were being put

under intolerable pressures. Andrew RT Davies, we know what you think of

the Welsh Government's leadership of the NHS, but what are your

solutions. If there are problems and it doesn't need to be a change in

how we inspect hospitals, what are you proposing to do about it? There

is an issue in the leadership in the NHS. Not just the Government but the

executive side. We have now just had a new executive director of the NHS

in Wales. I do think the NHS would have benefited from a fresh pair of

eyes. If we go back to reorganisation. One of the cardinal

sins of that reorganisation in 2009 with endocrine heart residing over

it, -- the reorganisation by Edwina Hart in 2009 was... A lot of good

people were thrown to the side in that review and ultimately, the

community health councils across Wales were greatly weakened. We

still have community health councils. We have Healthcare

Inspectorate Wales, we have reviews of the type we are discussing here.

So there is no end of people available to go into hospitals and

show was the failings where they do exist. The system is, after all,

exposing these failings, it is working. There is a lack of

leadership at the heart of the NHS, both political and executive

leadership, that has allowed this to continue. There is a lack of

oversight in the professional side of the Inspectorate and that has

been shown time and time again with failings in several district

hospitals across Wales, not just the two identified by Professor Andrews.

The community health care regime that existed previously had a huge

talented workforce that assisted the professionals in driving up

standards across our hospitals, and many of these people were discarded

by the reorganisation that went on, and the structure of many of those

health councils now are dominated by councillors who, let's face it, have

plenty to do running their local authorities. Tony Beddow, you were

an adviser to the Welsh Government at the time of that reorganisation.

How's that reorganisation weakened the system? I do not think it has

weakened the system altogether. What it has done is bring together the

people who plan services and look ahead to the future and are

responsible for the change management processes that all health

care systems are facing, and links them more closely with the people on

the ground doing the work, so there is a better opportunity for the plan

is to look ahead and say, these are the challenges we will be facing in

a few years' time. But when he redesigned the structure we have

now, got rid of the internal market, did enough thought going to, at that

time, who is going to speak up for the patients in all of this? A lot

of thought did go into it. One of the things we sometimes

underestimate is that health care systems are among the most complex

challenges that you can face in management terms. One of the famous

writers on organisations described them as the most political and the

most difficult organisations to manage. Sir John Harvey Jones, in

his programme is on television, the one organisation he floundered with

and could not find a way of helping both the hospital. They are very

compact organisations. Nevertheless the reasons why this Andrews Report,

for example, was commissioned, was that patients spoke up, via the

media and politicians and that is what kicked it off. There does not

seem to be anyone within the system that patients can turn to. I can

accept that the quality assurance processes within boards and the

professions does need to be recalibrated, if I can use that

term, within the business of the health boards. From time to time I

look at health board agendas and issues to do with the quality of

service and dealing with possibly excessive mortality rates as they

appeared on the stats and some of the care processes, that does

figure, but I would accept that we need to think those internal board

challenges, internal professional challenges. Doctors and nurses also

have their concerns. We need to build backing. Andrew RT Davies, the

way ahead now but for the Welsh Government. It has announced these

spot checks of hospitals. The health committee has called for a

fundamental review of HIW. The Welsh committee is looking at that. And

the Welsh treatment is responding, despite the criticism you have

levelled. They must have a clear independent enquiry into the

standards of care within our district general hospitals and I

fail to see why Carwyn Jones is failing to deliver that, other than

he says it costs ?1 million. The second point is to show clear

leadership, which clearly Carwyn Jones and various health ministers

have failed to do, to instil confidence within the day-to-day

running of our health service. Clinicians go to work to work at the

top of their game. Everyone is dedicated to having a top-class

health service within Wales but ultimately they have been let down

by the lack of political leadership at the heart of the NHS in Wales.

Thank you. Few people would argue with the

ambition of getting more women elected in politics. But despite

good intentions, achieving equality is proving difficult. The Electoral

Reform Society has being doing some calculations on the likely number of

women we'll send to Westminster after the General Election next

year. Here's Bethan Lewis with a summary.

Though at one time, half the Assembly members in Cardiff Bay were

women, Wales has only ever elected 13 women to Westminster. At the

moment, there are seven female MPs representing Welsh constituencies.

The Electoral Reform Society has estimated the likely picture after

we go to the polls in next May's UK General Election. Their best guess

is that 11 women will be elected from Wales next time. It could be as

high as 14, they say, but of course it could be lower, too. It's likely

that Labour's use of some all-women short lists to select candidates has

boosted the number of women in winnable seats. A bitter row in

Blaenau Gwent in 2005 lead to Labour's Peter Lowe leaving the

party and standing as an independent. It showed how divisive

all-women short lists can be. But according to a prominent equality

campaigner, positive action is the only way to get more women to

Parliament. We could carry on making tremendously slow progress, or we

could do something positive so that our elected institutions look like

the people they represent. And that means having a good mixture of men

and women. Joining me now is Stephen Brooks

from the Electoral Reform Society, and the Plaid Cymru AM Jocelyn

Davies - a member of the Assembly's Communities and Equality Committee.

Stephen Brooks, your research suggests the number of MPs will go

from seven to 11. -- the research suggests. That is a good record? It

is a good record up until 1997 we only had one female MP at a time. We

have had 13 altogether. Yes. But at this rate of progress we will have

to wait until 2030 until we see equal men and women in Parliament.

How does Wales compared with other nations? We are the worst of the UK.

It is below the UK average of 22.2%. Why is that, Jocelyn Davies? All

sorts of reasons. Some women are put off, I think, as there are barriers

there, financial barriers, training. I think sometimes the trail --

portrayal of what politicians do. Turn on the television or the radio

and it is often men are doing together, which is not very

inviting. But that is only a part of what politicians do. But it looks

intimidating. Yes, and they call Westminster the Bearpit. Women are

judged on the national stage of how they look, any gas they have made,

on their hair... It puts women off. I agree with what is being said

there, that you have a society that is just over half women, so why

haven't we got more women in public life? Is it issued represent the

society and all political parties, I think, have tried to make gains. We

should not be too harsh on ourselves in Wales, though, because we did

have four short while quality in the Assembly. We did. But that has slid

back somewhat, so what needs to be done to put it right? Yes, we did in

the first Assembly. That was because of positive action the parties took.

It has slid back and I think we will see women leaving this time round

and it will slide back even more. I am firmly coming round to the idea

that we should be thinking about legislating on this. If you have a

PR system, you can do... And I know other countries have done so, in

Spain, for example, in the party lists, no one gender can have more

than 60% of the places on it. Seven law that parties must put forward a

percentage of female candidates? Yes, and parties would then

definitely have to step up to the plate. There would be certain

structural issues you would have to address, but... The gains being made

are so slow, even if they are in the right direction. They are so slow

that it is completely unacceptable. Has not been tried and succeeded

anywhere else? Some countries like Spain do debate. I am not entirely

convinced that is what we need to do here. Parties need to address all

other measures they can do to try to get women into politics. I accept

that things are going to slow. In local Government we will have to

wait until 2076 for a quality in our councils. There was an enquiry into

how to get women into more local politics. It suggested political

parties should sign up to a target that 40% of their candidates in

their areas should be women. Only Labour have signed up. How do you

increase the pressure on them to make them do that, if progress has

been so slow? There has to be a point where you start to think about

legislation? We are still a long way from legislation. Political parties

can do activities and things to get more women involved. We have had a

flavour there of how difficult it can be for political parties to

change their procedures. It seems to be a difficult issue. Yes, and type

-- I was at a conference this week where this issue was discussed. A

lot of Labour Party members accept that there need to be more women and

in principle they support all-women shortlists. But the activists say

they want to see more transparency, and to know why some constituencies

do not select women as candidates. Members need to be engaged a lot

more about what is going on. The first past the post system...

Constituencies are made up of volunteers. In a hustings normally,

where you have that kind of match or sorted firebrand speech and then

answering questions and so on, and then... But that is the system that

we have, so what is your party going to be doing to promote women for the

next election, next year? What we have done is... We the one winnable

seat -- with the one winnable seat, you have three male MPs. We are

likely to have a woman MP for the very first time in Plaid Cymru. We

have done no positive discrimination at all for Westminster in terms of

selection, and we are encouraging women to come forward. The thing

about encouraging women, they are more likely to come forward if a man

encourages them. It is important as well that men run with this, too.

In the early hours of Monday morning, we will find out who the

winners are in the European elections. Most European Union

countries operating today. Polling took place in Wales and

across the UK on Thursday. Votes will be counted tonight. The Welsh

result is published just after midnight. The outcome of the

elections will be announced at the same time across Europe. Turnout in

Wales was 32%, a little higher than the 30.5% who turned out in 2009.

Merthyr Tydfil and Elaine Eich went at the lowest turnout. Labour

secured to share --... The Conservatives topped the poll last

time round, prompting a visit by David Cameron. Labour won the second

seed. Plaid Cymru took the third, with UKIP taking the fourth and

getting its first ever elected representative in Wales. The Liberal

Democrats are gay and failed to win a European seat in Wales. Will it be

all change -- the Liberal Democrats again failed to win a European seat

in Wales. We do not know the turnout.

Any conclusions we can draw? We were talking about more people being

engaged in the election campaign this time than five years ago,

primarily between the huge headlines generated by UKIP, but it has not

been the case. That 2% five years ago and certainly nowhere near the

peak of the turnout we have seen in the past in Wales for European

elections, which has been 40%. In terms of what it will mean for the

parties across Wales, the conventional wisdom is that a low

turnout will help the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru in candy dullard

particular. The real contest will be whether Labour can generate enough

support for two seat, UKIP also, in which case either Plaid Cymru or the

Conservatives are likely to lose one of their seats, and the reason why

low turnout could favour Plaid Cymru and the Tories is that the

likelihood is that those parties will hold onto their core support.

In terms of the regional breakdown in Wales of the turnout, it has been

high in areas like Anglesey, Glenys, these are areas that are strong for

Plaid Cymru and it would suggest they have been successful in getting

their vote out. We could also said that some of the areas where the

Conservatives are strong as well, Monmouthshire, Pembrokeshire, they

have done well as well, and turnout has been lowest in the Labour

heartlands of the South East. What are the party saying? Labour I

disappointed with the turnout after what they are saying has been their

biggest European election campaign so far. The Conservatives are

optimistic that they can get case when burnt re-elected and they said

they feel Labour have not generated enough votes. -- they can get swing

burnt re-elected. Plaid Cymru have been successful in getting their

vote out but they have been cautious not to underestimate UKIP. UKIP made

a big impact in the English local elections. Can we read across from

that to Wales? It is the big question. They have made a big play

on the disillusionment with the way the EU fund has been spent in Wales

over the years. They are insisting that immigration is as big a subject

on the doorstep in Wales as it is in England, despite the fact that

immigration levels are generally at a lower level than they are in parts

of England. From Labour's perspective, they did reasonably

well. If they can win two seats, it is a huge boost for Labour. Q. --

thank you. And don't forget, is a huge boost for Labour. Q. --

benefits system to make it contributory. Thank you. With that,

back to you, Andrew. Welcome back. Mutterings among Lib

Dems about Nick Clegg's leaderships, as we reported at the top of the

show, and tonight it could get even worse when we get the results of the

European elections. Paddy Ashdown, former Lib Dem leader, joins me now

from our Westminster studio. Something has to change for the Lib

Dems, if Nick Clegg isn't the change what will it be? The messages we

have about reducing tax on the poorest, they now have traction. We

have been on many programmes of this sort before, this idea that has been

put about by these people who are calling for a leadership election is

the silliest idea I have heard in my political career. It is not serious

politics. This is the moment when we need to get out with a really good

message and campaign through the summer in the context of the general

election. Spending it on a divisive leadership contest is ridiculous. At

the very moment when our sacrifices are beginning to gain traction, we

turn in on ourselves. The question is, can the Liberal Democrats hack

being in government? If we were to take this step, the anther would be

no, and that would damage the party forever. It is clearly a problem,

you have had to come out and defend Nick Clegg, we have not even had the

European election results yet. It could get even worse by midnight. I

have been up here anyway, to argue the party's case in the context of

tonight. Let me try to put this in scale. We have a website which

people can join to show their ascent to the fact that they like cake, it

is called Liberal Democrats like cake, it has more people signed up

than this website that is calling for a leadership election. Something

like 200, of course this happens from time to time, the wonder is you

are talking -- you are taking it seriously. Your colleagues are

taking it seriously, including sitting MPs. People trot out a list

of achievements that the party would like to be associated with, he began

doing just that, but you have been doing that for months, if not for

over a year, your ratings in the polls are terrible, you had a

terrible local election, and you will probably have a terrible

European election. It will cut through much better in the context

of an election, we have been talking about the European elections. We

have been here a long time, let me take you back, we have had tough

times, in 1989, we came last in every constituency in Britain, save

one, behind the Green party. One or two voices said, you have got to

ditch the leader, me, you had one of them on earlier, John Hemmings, as I

recall. One or two said we had to change course, but we stood our

ground, and in the general election we not only re-established our

position from a base of almost nothing, we laid the basis and

foundation for doubling our seats in 1997. That is what the party can do,

they have a great message, and insert of wasting the summer and

autumn on a leadership contest, we should be doing that. Nick Clegg had

two opportunities to put part of that message across in the debate

over Europe, but the party poll ratings fell after that. What Nick

elected us to try to fill a vacuum of antique European rhetoric. And he

lost. He could not change the best part of a generation of

anti-European propaganda in a couple of performances? He lost the second

debate more than the first. It is a long-term programme. Nick Clegg had

the courage to take us into government. He took that decision

before the party and gained 75, 80% support in a democratic vote. He has

led the party with outstanding judgement. He has showed almost

incredible grace under fire, being attacked from all sides, because

some people hate the coalition, and he has the courage to do what no

other Liberal Democrat leader has done, to stand up before the British

people and say unequivocally, we are in favour of Europe. He is a man of

courage, integrity, decency, he is one of the best prime ministers

Britain has not got. In the context of a general election, that will go

through. I am devoted to the man, he can do amazingly well in the general

election. But he is losing local elections again and again, the

European elections, and he is on track to lose the general election.

European elections are not easy for us. Whatever happens tomorrow

morning, it will not be bad -- as bad as 1989. We have had that line.

In the context of a general election, we fought our way back,

this time, we have been in government, we start from a higher

base, we have a message to tell about how we alone have taken the

tough decisions to get this country out of the worst economic mess it

has ever seen, left to us by the Labour Party. We can go out in the

context of a general election and fight for that. My guess is that the

resurgence of the party in the context of a general election will

be far greater than you are suggesting.

We have done the Liberal Democrats, that move onto the other parties.

How bad a leadership problem does Ed Miliband have? He has a continuation

of a problem he has had for a long time. The Labour Party thought they

had a soft lead, and they have the same situation, everybody is hanging

on. They have to make a breakthrough. The big thing is that

lots of people at Shadow Cabinet wish they had taken on UKIP, why was

Labour turning its fire on the Liberal Democrats? They should have

been taking on UKIP, and UKIP taken seats from them, such as in

Rotherham. They have finally woken up. I think there is a class war

breaking out, the northerners have taken against Ed Miliband and the

Metropolitan sophisticates around them... One Labour MP has said, we

do not want these guacamole eating people from North London! A number

doing that. They wanted to take the fight to UKIP, because UKIP is

getting working-class, Northern Labour votes. John Mann said it was

ridiculous that the Labour Party did not put posters in the North of

England to say that Nigel Farage regarded Margaret Thatcher as his

heroine. But in a funny way, those Northern Labour MPs are speaking for

the South, because the Labour Party will only win the general election

if it takes back those seats in the south, the south-east, a couple of

seats in the south-west that Tony Blair in 1997, and they acknowledge

that. It is important to say they did win the local elections, they

got 31%, but that was only to bustle -- two points hang-up the

Conservatives. Neil Kinnock got 38% in 1991, the year before John Major

got the largest in of votes ever. There is unease in the shadow

cabinet about why Ed Miliband did not take on UKIP on immigration

earlier. But Ed Miliband says, we should not be calling UKIP names, we

should be calling them out, and he would say he did call them out. The

unease in the party has made the results worse for them than they

should have been, they did pretty well on Thursday. Although UKIP took

votes from them in safe seats, in the end, it will not make much

difference. UKIP is taking votes from Tories in marginals. It made it

appear that Labour have not done well. Diane Abbott was right, a lot

of the Labour MPs who came out on Friday morning had been practising

their lines in expectation of a disappointing result. In the north,

I do not think UKIP's status of the main nonlabour right-wing party will

damage Labour. If you have a majority of 25,000... But in the

South and Midlands, UKIP could break the non-Tory vote in such a way as

to cost Labour marginal seats that they would otherwise win. As for the

Tories, look back at 2009, UKIP 116 or 17% of the popular vote in the

European elections and fell to 3% in the general election. You mentioned

Europe, the Tories are anticipating finishing third, they did not do

well on Thursday, they seem to be putting everything on Europe, we

will beat UKIP in Newark. That is the line I am getting from them. The

Liberal Democrats and Labour are nowhere there, they both got 20% of

the vote, the Tories got 53%, a majority of 16,000. UKIP do not need

to do well to have an enormous increase on last time. This seed is

a referendum on Tories against UKIP, which we have not seen so far. I was

there for the rocky road packed. David Cameron gave a piece of rocky

road to Boris Johnson, saying, you know you want it, Boris. The Tories

must be a head, because at the bakery stores, the blue buns outsold

the UKIP buns. Ed Miliband bit off more than he

could chew when he turned launch into a budgeted last week, but he is

not the first politician to make a meal of it.

I love a hot pasty, the choice was to have a small one or a large one,

and I opted for the large one, and very good it was, too.

The significance of the Ed Miliband business is more about the media, we

can amplify nothingness, but because the narrative is that Ed Miliband is

accident prone, even eating a big concern which becomes an accident.

He is deemed to be weird, so we find pictures that support the

conclusion. It is a class issue, you reveal your social class by what you

eat, what supermarket you go to. You can play somebody accurately.

Politicians are largely of a different class from the voters, and

as soon as you ask them about food, it becomes apparent. To thine own

self be true, David Cameron pretending he was interested in

Cornish pasties, he does the cooking at the weekend, lots of posh food,

do not pretend to be something you are not. The problem for Ed Miliband

with that picture, he has some abnormal people working for him, but

what he does not have is a broadcast person who can spot those pictures.

George Osborne hired Theo Rogers from the BBC, she has

transformed... She may have been guilty of the burger, but she has

transformed his image on TV. That is what Ed Miliband needs. You are

correct, it Ed Miliband was 15 points ahead in the polls, screwing

up the eating of a bacon sandwich would be seen as an endearing trait.

We might not have even noticed it. That is all this week, you can get

those European election results with David Dimbleby on vote went to 14

from 9pm on the BBC News Channel, and from 11pm on BBC One. No

programme next week, but we are back in two weeks. If it is Sunday, it is

the Sunday Politics. This week, Britain has voted for its

Members of the European Parliament.