06/12/2015 Sunday Politics Wales


06/12/2015

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LineFromTo

Good morning, and welcome to the Sunday Politics.

:00:39.:00:42.

Police say they're treating a multiple stabbing in London

:00:43.:00:44.

as the the RAF intensifies its bombing campaign over Syria,

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is this the latest sign of an evolving threat on British streets?

:00:55.:00:57.

Labour scored a significant win at this week's Oldham by-election

:00:58.:00:59.

but after a tough week for Jeremy Corbyn

:01:00.:01:01.

there are more reports of smears, abuse and even talk of a purge.

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We'll be speaking to a member of the shadow cabinet.

:01:06.:01:09.

Later in the programme: that has its rebels,

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Will the latest airstrikes against so-called IS make us more

:01:19.:01:20.

Boris Johnson add cycling revolution on the ground in Syria?

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Boris Johnson add cycling revolution is proving controversial, is the

:01:33.:01:34.

mayor backing bikes over other road users?

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And joining me for all of that, three journalists who've dutifully

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battled through the wind and the rain to get here,

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even without the threat of a telling off from Andrew.

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It's Nick Watt, Isabel Oakeshott and Janan Ganesh,

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and they'll be tweeting throughout the show.

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that police are treating an attack at a London underground station

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A man carrying a knife was reported to have screamed,

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as he injured three men at Leytonstone station

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making it potentially the first terrorist attack on British soil

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since the murder of fusilier Lee Rigby in 2013.

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Mobile phone footage shows police officers

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wrestling with a man after he had been tasered.

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He was later arrested and remains in custody.

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The Metropolitan Police said one man suffered serious knife injuries

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but was not thought to be in a life-threatening condition,

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while two other victims received minor injuries.

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Well, the Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith

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has this morning called the attack an "abomination",

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and we can speak now to the local MP John Cryer

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Your response? It is an appalling attack. And it is frightening, very

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frightening for local people. I've been talking to some of the local

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businesses this morning and obviously they are all very worried

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about it now. What the background is, what the motivation is, I do

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think it would be particularly helpful to speculate at the moment.

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-- I don't think it would be particularly helpful. So I'd rather

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not do that. But when something like this happens in your own area, it is

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not something expect. Leytonstone is a peaceful area, a lot of

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communities live together extremely peacefully and harmoniously, that's

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one of the great things about this area. People will be scared and

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understandably so, as you say, so what is your message to constituents

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as they wake up to this news? I think the message is that we carry

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on as normal, that we don't allow this sort of barbaric behaviour to

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change our lives. And I think that's the important thing. And I think

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people will continue as well. I'm not saying people will be blase

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about it, people will be very concerned. But I don't think people

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will allow this to change the way they live their lives on a

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day-to-day basis, that's the impression I've had from the people

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I've been talking to this morning. Now, this has happened just days

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after parliament voted for air strikes in Syria, people are bound,

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rightly or wrongly to draw a link between the two, what say you?

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Welcome I was opposed to the air strikes in Syria, I voted against

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air strikes in Syria, I think it will prove to be quite a major

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mistake. I am not convinced that this will be connected to the air

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strikes in Syria. Well I just don't know at the moment so we can only

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speculate. But there doesn't seem to be immediately evidence that there

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is a direct link. But we have to find out what the background is.

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Police are investigating. I have been in contact with police this

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morning. At I think it would be dangerous to say this is a direct

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consequence of air strikes in Syria. And as I say I am a fairly major

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critic of the government's activities. Thank you.

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This comes after the so-called Islamic State

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claimed a husband and wife who massacred 14 people

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were supporters of the terrorist group.

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So is this just the latest sign that the West faces a new type of threat?

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Well, we're joined now by the security expert Will Geddes.

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At the moment it looks like a lone wolf, no accomplices, no

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organisation in any major way behind it, is that how you read it? I think

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pretty much so. It is incredibly difficult to say right now and again

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it is dangerous to speculate too much until the police have

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undertaken their investigations to determine how this individual was

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motivated, under what particular an brother that might have been,

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whether it was alone, whether it was a self radicalisation process --

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what particular an umbrella that might have been. We have been

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expecting an attack because we have had the Paris attacks, we have had

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the attacks in Southern California, and there had been warnings about

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it, and the terror threat is still extremely high. So we shouldn't be

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that surprised. No, I don't think we are. And I think we are accepting

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the fact that unfortunately we are at a very high risk level intervals

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of these types of attacks. And this precedes the Syrian bombing

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agreements in terms of the fact that there were seven significant plots

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foiled this year. We have always been on the radar, it is just down

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to the capabilities of the individuals. Sadly, certainly in the

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wake of this most recent incident, it will be the platform of lone

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wolves more than anything else. Do you think that is the case? That is

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the most recent pattern, that might be what continues in, unfortunately,

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capitals across Europe? I think we have to be pragmatic and accept

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that. Ultimately we know that the individuals that are planning as

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cells have a far higher chance of detection. So individuals working on

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their own, whether it be in a very specific conceptual sort of agenda

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and motivation or whether it be an individual that is simply aligned to

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the ideologies of Daesh will add to the spectrum of Brett. Nick Watt,

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what do you think the little reaction will be? We have had some

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reaction from Jon Cryer saying stay vigilant but don't be blase. That

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was an incredibly important contribution you had from John

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Cryer, he is not just the local MP, E is the chairman of the

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Parliamentary party. In that capacity Jeremy Corbyn invites him

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to attend the Shadow Cabinet. He voted against air strikes and he is

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being held up as how the majority of opinion in the Labour Party is

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against air strikes. He was absolutely clear saying it would be

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dangerous to say that this attack in Leytonstone is in any way linked to

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the vote in parliament. The reason why that is significant is that

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there will be some people and indeed we are already seeing some people on

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Twitter saying that this attack in Leytonstone is as a result of that

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vote. Well, the chairman of the PLP who voted against the air strikes

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said it would be dangerous to make that conclusion. But people will

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make those links and they will continue to do so particularly in

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the light of Michael Fallon saying the bombing campaign is intensifying

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in Syria and there are likely to be civilian cavities. They may well do

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so but what strikes me about this attack, is awful and horrible as it

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is for everybody involved, is that it is a rather pathetic and little

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attack. Very happily the victim, as we understand it, is not going to

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die as a result of this attack. What strikes me is, were we in America

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and were the people who are prone to do these things able to get their

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hands on guns, this would have been a mass casualties could well have

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been a mass casualties attack. As it was, we're left with somebody just

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randomly stabbing and not really getting anywhere. Do you think

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people are ready for how long this campaign is going to go on for, and

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we are going to live in the shadow indirectly or directly of a

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terrorist threat? I don't know if people are ready for just Syria or

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maybe five years worth of security being one of the top three issues in

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the country. If you look at the issues index, most salient to voters

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in recent years, it has been the usual economy, NHS, immigration to a

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certain extent. I wonder whether, by the time of the next election

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because of this fairly consistent terror threat, security is even

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number one, two or three. We've got the investigatory Powers Bill going

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through Parliament at the moment and I think that kind of legislation,

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the presence of a terror threat, the kind of thing that is on the evening

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news might overnight over five years will change what we consider to be

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the most salient issues in British issues -- night after night. There

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had been reports that one of the Paris attackers had travelled to

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Britain earlier this year, and the chair of the Home Affairs Select

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Committee said it is a real worry that people are able to get through

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our borders without being detected. How worried are you by those

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reports? I think we are playing a bit of a catch-up game and

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unfortunately we have to appreciate it many capabilities in tens of the

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border force a Metropolitan Police and police agencies across the UK.

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Although there have been positive suggestions by the government in

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terms of boosting numbers within the security services, for example, you

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are still looking at approximately 18 months before those 1900 new

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heads within GCHQ and security services will be operationally able

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to fulfil their mission. Briefly on the police numbers, also a very

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controversial issue in terms of the spending review, that didn't happen,

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the cuts that people feared, the government will be relieved they did

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not make those cuts? Iain Duncan Smith in condemning these attackers

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as an abomination made that exact point, saying we kept those police

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numbers and they will be important in terms of attacking the terrorist

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threat. Now, the Prime Minister had hoped to

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sign off his plans for a renegotiation of Britain's EU

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membership later this month. have decided not give him an early

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Christmas present, and that means the referendum on

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whatever deal he does get Last month David Cameron sent a

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letter to Donald Tusk, president of the European Council setting out the

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EU reform demands. There were four main areas he once renegotiated.

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Protection for non-Europe countries and safeguarding their rights.

:11:34.:11:38.

Exemption from an ever closer union. And more powers for national

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parliaments. Restore competitiveness in the EU which involves cutting red

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tape and free trade agreements with other economies. And finally, the

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one causing the most headaches, restricting benefits for EU

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migrants. Under the Prime Minister's plans, EU migrants would

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not be able to claim any in work benefits for four years. On Thursday

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David Cameron abandoned hopes for an early referendum as early as May

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next year after admitting he would not be able to get the deal he wants

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at an EU summit in two weeks' time. Donald Tusk will on Monday published

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an assessment of the British demands in a letter to the 27 other member

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states. It follows a round of confessionals in which governments

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have outlined their concerns. He said December's meeting will pave

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the way for a deal in February. By then David Cameron will be forced to

:12:30.:12:37.

decide whether to campaign for a Brexit or stay in the EU.

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and committed eurosceptic Iain Duncan Smith

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has been speaking on The Andrew Marr show this morning,

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and he said the delay was a sign of strength, not weakness.

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Well the mood is actually very upbeat. I'm involved in putting

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together the package that the Prime Minister wants to take to the

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council. So we've been deep in discussion about that. The Prime

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Minister has been pretty clear throughout that he wants to take a

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package that supports the manifesto commitment. In my area for example

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on welfare it is very clear that he wants to have that commitment,

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people living here and contributing to the system, and that will be one

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of the key elements. We did ask for a government minister

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to talk to us about the prime minister's renegotiation plans

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but were told none was available. we can speak instead to the

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Conservative MP Bernard Jenkin, of the eurosceptic Conservatives

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For Britain group and he joins us

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from our Westminster studio. Welcome to the programme. Are you as

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upbeat and optimistic as Iain Duncan Smith? No. Ironic, really, because

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he and I were elected on the same day in 1992 and we both opposed the

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Maastricht Treaty. We both spare about the direction of the European

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Union. -- we both despair. And while he is gamely supporting the Prime

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Minister's negotiation in its centre is, I think he knows in his heart

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that this is a very lame renegotiation compared to what the

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Prime Minister was originally promising. I mean, there are a whole

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range of things that the Prime Minister wanted, like getting out of

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all the home affairs and justice revisions of the Lisbon Treaty, like

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getting a complete opt out of the EU Charter of fundamental rights, which

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is, for example, gives the power to the European court of justice to

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decide prisoner voting and not just the European Court of Human Rights,

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and so it goes on. But, you know, you know Iain Duncan

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Smith well, he is not known as a raging Europhile, and if he is

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optimistic and competent, certainly, publicly, the chances of a

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meaningful deal of a deal with Europe, -- meaningful chance of a

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deal with Europe, then why cannot you be? He is bound by his duty to

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the cabinet, but I am free to speak my mind, Iain Duncan Smith focus

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very narrowly on a very circular way, on his own, on the Prime

:15:13.:15:18.

Minister's own terms of reference. The European Union has changed so

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dramatically over the last 20 or 30 years, the question the British

:15:27.:15:29.

people are going to have to face, do they want to carry on with this

:15:30.:15:32.

journey? There is no status quo, is they want to carry on with the

:15:33.:15:34.

journey of integration, because what the prime ministers negotiating

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about, will not change the course of the European Union or the course of

:15:39.:15:42.

the United Kingdom within the European Union. They are relatively

:15:43.:15:47.

trivial, rather complicated, but relatively trivial negotiating

:15:48.:15:51.

demands. He's going to get the deal by February. Even if he gets the

:15:52.:15:56.

deal by February, it will not change the price of fish, it will not allow

:15:57.:16:00.

the UK Parliament to determine our own laws and it will not restrict

:16:01.:16:04.

the European court of justice, another of the Prime Minister's

:16:05.:16:07.

demands that he has now dropped. It will not restore the opt out of the

:16:08.:16:15.

social chapter, which was gained by John Major in the Maastricht Treaty,

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it will not achieve any of these things. There was never going to be

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enough concessions... I am glad you are making the point that this

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renegotiation was never really going to address the fundamental

:16:29.:16:32.

problems... Or, you were never going to be satisfied! The Prime Minister

:16:33.:16:40.

was making these much tougher demands. He has dropped these

:16:41.:16:45.

demands. I would be supporting the Prime Minister's negotiating

:16:46.:16:48.

position if he had stuck to his demands. Which one in particular, if

:16:49.:16:51.

there was one thing you would like to see him bring back which you

:16:52.:16:54.

could sell to your constituents, what would it be? The fundamental

:16:55.:16:59.

one, restrict the ability of the European Court of Justice to rule on

:17:00.:17:04.

almost anything. Risen a voting, I mentioned, it is now moving to that

:17:05.:17:09.

area. And the whole question of the relationship between those countries

:17:10.:17:12.

that do not want to be in political union, do not want to be involuntary

:17:13.:17:15.

union, do not want to be in the fiscal union treaty which has been

:17:16.:17:20.

redesigned by the call Eurozone states. -- prisoner voting. What we

:17:21.:17:25.

have got to face, this is not a status quo we are voting to stay in,

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it is a continuing development of European Union integration, if you

:17:30.:17:33.

want to have choices, you must vote Leave. It has been reported that the

:17:34.:17:42.

campaign will campaign for Brexit. LAUGHTER

:17:43.:17:46.

Would you welcome him leading the campaign from the out? You have

:17:47.:17:51.

laughed... We would welcome him joining the vote to leave campaign,

:17:52.:17:58.

but I don't think it is very likely, at the moment he is convincing

:17:59.:18:02.

people he's being really tough but we know that this is what happens in

:18:03.:18:07.

all EU negotiations, the government pretends to be tough, pretends to be

:18:08.:18:11.

a showdown, and in the end, hey presto, rabbit out of the hat,

:18:12.:18:15.

everything is marvellous. Game set and match for the British. Is there

:18:16.:18:19.

any thing, do you think, that Iain Duncan Smith will be able to sell

:18:20.:18:24.

once this renegotiation is done and dusted? Sell to the backbench... ? I

:18:25.:18:31.

doubt it, I think... As Bernard has suggested, in January, 2013, when

:18:32.:18:35.

David Cameron talked about renegotiation, he meant something

:18:36.:18:38.

sweeping, even in addition to the thing is Bernard has mentioned, even

:18:39.:18:41.

including flirting with the idea of some deep reform to European free

:18:42.:18:45.

movement, that was what was being suggested two years ago. There is

:18:46.:18:48.

not going to be anything approaching any of that in any deal that urges

:18:49.:18:54.

early next year. As it stands a number of backbenchers will find

:18:55.:18:57.

that hard to support. Tactic from Downing Street, to leak the idea

:18:58.:19:02.

that David Cameron might conceivably support the leave campaign, slightly

:19:03.:19:05.

misjudged, so transparent the obvious that he will not. If

:19:06.:19:10.

anything, it was a message sent to other European capitals, " if I

:19:11.:19:15.

don't do that smack if you do not do this deal, I may join the sceptics.

:19:16.:19:24.

-- if you do not do this deal". I agree with Jan, nobody will take

:19:25.:19:30.

seriously the idea that he will campaign for out because

:19:31.:19:33.

fundamentally that is not what he believes, he wants to stay in and

:19:34.:19:36.

has said seven the beginning. Bernard is right, there is a feeling

:19:37.:19:41.

that the renegotiation will only achieve something rather cosmetic.

:19:42.:19:46.

-- and has said so since the beginning. David Cameron may pull a

:19:47.:19:49.

rabbit out of a hat and pretend that he has got a concession but people

:19:50.:19:54.

will not be convinced. I leave it to Nick to stick up for the Prime

:19:55.:19:56.

Minister in this particular instance, what would the rabbit in

:19:57.:19:59.

the hat, the rabbit coming out of the hat, be, for David Cameron, once

:20:00.:20:05.

this deal is done and dusted. It will be examined as rabbit, because

:20:06.:20:11.

we will know about it! He cannot go beyond what he wrote in the letter

:20:12.:20:14.

to Donald Tusk, the rabbit that he takes out of a hat which says, isn't

:20:15.:20:19.

this amazing, isn't opt out from the historic commitment to ever closer

:20:20.:20:23.

union, he will say it is significant... He will say it has an

:20:24.:20:26.

impact on the European Court of judgment rulings, but the point is,

:20:27.:20:30.

first, we know that is what he wants to achieve, and also, people like

:20:31.:20:36.

Bernard, and we can see he is nodding (!), he will say this is

:20:37.:20:40.

just a cosmetic change, it is not going to change the fundamental

:20:41.:20:45.

privacy of EU law over EU law. -- fundamental primacy of EU law over

:20:46.:20:51.

UK law. If there were a concession on in work benefits, many people

:20:52.:20:54.

feel that is impossible, bearing in mind the laws, would that satisfy

:20:55.:21:01.

you? It would not, in the end, the European Court of Justice will

:21:02.:21:03.

always have the power to overturn Teva has been agreed, the problem

:21:04.:21:08.

the Prime Minister has got, he started at the beginning with

:21:09.:21:11.

grappling with quite some big things, but refusing to argue with

:21:12.:21:16.

the overall architecture of the European Union. -- grappling with

:21:17.:21:20.

some quite big things. If you do not change the architecture, nothing

:21:21.:21:24.

will really change, except that the European Union will carry on

:21:25.:21:28.

morphing into a state and we will be part of that, whether we are in out

:21:29.:21:32.

of the Euro, ever closer treaty in the treaty -- ever closer union in

:21:33.:21:36.

the treaty, not in the treaty, whatever. Thank you very much for

:21:37.:21:39.

joining us. The real substance being debated

:21:40.:21:43.

by MPs in the Commons on Wednesday may have been whether to extend air

:21:44.:21:47.

strikes into Syria but it was the conflict inside

:21:48.:21:50.

Jeremy Corbyn's party that ended up

:21:51.:21:52.

grabbing just as many headlines. Even when the party finally arrived

:21:53.:21:54.

at a position, it couldn't heal the rift between

:21:55.:21:56.

the leader and some of his MPs. The party received

:21:57.:22:01.

a much-needed boost with a comfortable majority

:22:02.:22:02.

in Thursday's by-election. So when it comes to Jeremy Corbyn's

:22:03.:22:05.

Labour, just what do the voters

:22:06.:22:07.

make of it all? Labour won the old by-election and

:22:08.:22:19.

comfortable, there are majority was reduced but they increased their

:22:20.:22:22.

share of the vote, Jeremy Corbyn says it shows that Labour is

:22:23.:22:27.

electoral. We, with the help of the pollen company populace, have

:22:28.:22:30.

gathered together a group of people that once voted Labour but did not

:22:31.:22:34.

at the last election. We are going to hear of what they think of the

:22:35.:22:39.

new Labour Party and behind this screen, we have two seasoned Labour

:22:40.:22:42.

advisers to pass comment on what they hear. Vets get started. --

:22:43.:22:48.

polling company Populous. -- let's get started. All of the former

:22:49.:22:52.

Labour voters are from London, and at the general election they spread

:22:53.:22:56.

their approach to Ukip, the greens, conservatives and Lib Dem, all of

:22:57.:23:01.

them felt Labour lost their vote over the economy, Ed Miliband and

:23:02.:23:04.

being out of touch. What do they make of Labour today? -- Greens.

:23:05.:23:09.

They are moving in the right direction, with a charismatic

:23:10.:23:13.

leader, whose policies seem to be standing up for the average man. I

:23:14.:23:24.

disagree, no disrespect, for me, I am quite a middle ground person,

:23:25.:23:30.

going from the left to the right, they have gone far too left for me.

:23:31.:23:36.

For me they are unelectable. He is very principled, I respect him for

:23:37.:23:41.

that but I do not agree with his policies, particularly defence.

:23:42.:23:46.

Initial impressions? Did people know who he was before he became the

:23:47.:23:52.

Labour leader? I had not. Had you heard of him? I had heard of him...

:23:53.:23:58.

He seems principled, compassionate... He has used a term,

:23:59.:24:03.

the new politics... Have you heard that? Yes... Do you know what he

:24:04.:24:12.

means? Not specifically, I presume he means a different attitude

:24:13.:24:17.

towards leading the party and the way they make decisions perhaps.

:24:18.:24:23.

It goes back to the same problem, if you have a vague catchphrase and no

:24:24.:24:31.

substance behind it... Maybe I am not seeing the strong leadership --

:24:32.:24:36.

leadership capability, I understand he's principled, but as a leader of

:24:37.:24:40.

the country, I am not convinced. Does that sound like a good way of

:24:41.:24:43.

changing things, giving them more freedom in the way that they vote?

:24:44.:24:48.

It brings a more human feel, does not feel like everyone is a robot,

:24:49.:24:53.

all of us in this room, we could all be voting for Labour but we would

:24:54.:24:56.

all have different opinions on things. That is... That is a human,

:24:57.:25:02.

you know, that is human nature. I think the fact that is being

:25:03.:25:07.

respected, that is good. But, keeping it in line, how he's going

:25:08.:25:11.

to manage that, that may be a problem. That woman has some up the

:25:12.:25:18.

nub of the problem! That is pretty much their position right now. This

:25:19.:25:27.

is a video clip... I'm not happy with the shoot to kill policy in

:25:28.:25:31.

general, I think that is quite dangerous. That is woolly. You

:25:32.:25:42.

cannot go from principled to Willy and evasive, that is a problem. --

:25:43.:25:50.

woolly and evasive. You need crystal clear clarity on security issues.

:25:51.:25:57.

You need to give somebody a bit of time, let them lace up their running

:25:58.:26:01.

shoes (!), they find their own pace, and they get a little bit of time.

:26:02.:26:06.

It is early days, he has just started in the job. In time, he will

:26:07.:26:11.

show, you know, a lot of strength will stop courage, I think. Why not

:26:12.:26:21.

vote Labour this time? -- a lot of strength and courage. Labour was

:26:22.:26:24.

giving benefits left right and centre, if somebody needs them,

:26:25.:26:29.

fine, but they were in so much debt, the country was getting further and

:26:30.:26:34.

further into debt. There was no end to it. Do you know the if Jeremy

:26:35.:26:39.

Corbyn and John Madonna's government would spend more money, would they

:26:40.:26:47.

put up taxes? -- do you know if they Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell

:26:48.:26:53.

government. I bet there is not a single specific about how it is

:26:54.:26:57.

different. Despite the debate about austerity. They have not mentioned

:26:58.:27:02.

that word once. The fact Labour have not articulated anything... They

:27:03.:27:10.

have asked a leading question, so not to give that response, that

:27:11.:27:14.

suggest, well,... We will not make up our minds... We do not know...

:27:15.:27:20.

These people are not the British electorate, nor can they alone give

:27:21.:27:25.

Labour a victory, but there will be plenty to note, as lost Labour

:27:26.:27:30.

voters, they seem prepared to give Labour and Jeremy Corbyn time to bed

:27:31.:27:31.

in. STUDIO: And I'm joined in the studio

:27:32.:27:37.

now by the Shadow Work and Pensions

:27:38.:27:39.

secretary, Owen Smith. We have had plenty of evidence from

:27:40.:27:44.

the pollsters, you saw and heard some of it, at the last election

:27:45.:27:48.

Labour was not trusted on the economy, particularly when it came

:27:49.:27:51.

to managing the welfare bill, do you think you are on the way to learning

:27:52.:27:56.

that trust? If you take the evidence of the poll that matters, the poll

:27:57.:28:01.

with the people, looking at Oldham, then perhaps we are winning back

:28:02.:28:06.

trust. There is no doubt we did not have it at the last election, that

:28:07.:28:10.

is why Labour lost and lost badly, but we did win a victory on Thursday

:28:11.:28:17.

in Oldham, up 10%, the Tories were down 10%. Perhaps we are in the

:28:18.:28:20.

foothills of starting to win back trust. I recognise and Jeremy Ross

:28:21.:28:24.

recognises we have a long way to go, almost five years until the next

:28:25.:28:29.

election and we will have to put in place policies and ideas to win back

:28:30.:28:35.

trust fully. -- Jeremy recognises. It was a Labour victory but that is

:28:36.:28:38.

a Labour heartland, you should not be surprised that you did well

:28:39.:28:44.

somewhere like Oldham, that is despite the policies of the national

:28:45.:28:47.

party, you could say, it you could say it is because of a strong Labour

:28:48.:28:51.

parliament, that is not a Nuneaton which you need to win back. But in

:28:52.:28:55.

the media we were talking about lots of suggestions that Labour was going

:28:56.:28:59.

to lose that seat, or if we win, we would win only by 1000. Labour MPs

:29:00.:29:06.

themselves were saying that! That is my point. But the pollsters were

:29:07.:29:10.

certainly saying in their view, we were likely to struggle. For us to

:29:11.:29:15.

hold it as well as we did, increase the share of the vote from last time

:29:16.:29:19.

around, 11,000 majority, you cannot say anything other than it was a

:29:20.:29:23.

good victory for Labour. I think it has to be a vindication both of Jim

:29:24.:29:28.

McMahon, the excellent candidate, now the MP for old, a good local guy

:29:29.:29:32.

who has been a council leader, very well respected. -- Oldham. The kind

:29:33.:29:38.

of community-based politicians that we produce in labour. -- community

:29:39.:29:43.

rooted politicians. But also a vindication of Jeremy Corbyn and the

:29:44.:29:47.

rebuilding of trust. Nobody in Oldham can be in any doubts as to

:29:48.:29:50.

who is the leader of the Labour Party right now!

:29:51.:29:56.

Let's talk about welfare, we heard the lady saying Labour was giving

:29:57.:30:02.

benefits left, right and centre and leaving the country in so much debt,

:30:03.:30:06.

how do you address that? Well, I think we've got to start by doing

:30:07.:30:09.

what we did not do well enough under the last parliament which is call

:30:10.:30:12.

out the line from the Tory party that the dead this country were in

:30:13.:30:17.

and are still in, let's not forget the Tories have practically doubled

:30:18.:30:23.

debt. Let's talk about welfare specifically. Happy to. The Labour

:30:24.:30:27.

Party under Harriet Harman clearly felt it should move closer to the

:30:28.:30:32.

Conservatives on welfare and not further away, the party did not vote

:30:33.:30:36.

against their bill introducing ?12 billion of saving and Harriet Harman

:30:37.:30:39.

said she was sympathetic to lowering the benefits cap. You did not vote

:30:40.:30:44.

against the limit on child tax credits for two children. In that

:30:45.:30:52.

vote we definitely were wrong and that's why Labour has now voted

:30:53.:30:55.

against the welfare bill, and the reason for that is the reason many

:30:56.:31:01.

people in this country, I think, have started to turn against the

:31:02.:31:04.

Conservative Party. Because the tax credit changes that were at the

:31:05.:31:08.

heart of that bill, and the heart of the ?12 billion savings. At you knew

:31:09.:31:12.

about the tax credit bill and you were still in favour of a benefit

:31:13.:31:17.

cap, at the time you were still in favour of lowering the benefit cap

:31:18.:31:20.

and you wanted to limit it to child tax credits to two children. So was

:31:21.:31:25.

that all a complete aberration? Well, as I said, I think those were

:31:26.:31:30.

the wrong decisions. I actually argued within the Shadow Cabinet at

:31:31.:31:34.

the time against our abstaining on that vote. I said in my conference

:31:35.:31:37.

speech a couple of months ago that this is no time for the Labour Party

:31:38.:31:41.

to be abstaining on whether we make poor people, working people, poorer,

:31:42.:31:46.

in this country. People want the Labour Party to stand up for working

:31:47.:31:50.

people. What is your evidence for saying people want you to do that?

:31:51.:31:54.

Harriet Harman announced that Labour did not oppose limiting tax credits

:31:55.:31:59.

to two children because she said, we simply cannot say to the public that

:32:00.:32:03.

you were wrong at the election. So who is representing the people here?

:32:04.:32:09.

We might point to Heidi Allen, who you have got on the programme later,

:32:10.:32:13.

or any of the other 20 or 30 Tory MPs who stood up against their own

:32:14.:32:17.

Prime Minister just a few weeks ago. On tax credits? Saying that they got

:32:18.:32:22.

it wrong on tax credits. The Tories describe that as welfare spending,

:32:23.:32:25.

that was part of their ?12 billion at the election. It is entirely

:32:26.:32:30.

legitimate for me to talk about that. Of course it is but it is not

:32:31.:32:34.

just that. You said people want us to do this and I am trying to get

:32:35.:32:39.

from you the evidence for that. Yes on tax credits but more broadly on

:32:40.:32:42.

Labour's perception of people on Labour with welfare. We have seen

:32:43.:32:48.

leaks from polling from Labour's learning the lessons task force

:32:49.:32:51.

chaired by Margaret Beckett in which people said Labour was in full to

:32:52.:32:55.

the undeserving, it needs to be for middle-class voters not just down

:32:56.:32:59.

and outs. And a Labour win would have been good for people on

:33:00.:33:01.

benefits and immigrants, anyone claiming money. How will you win an

:33:02.:33:07.

election if people only see you as representing those groups? Well,

:33:08.:33:11.

we've got to win an election because those groups and low and middle

:33:12.:33:16.

income earners in Britain, the very people being hit by tax credit cuts

:33:17.:33:21.

and now the universal credit cuts that are coming down the stream next

:33:22.:33:24.

year, need a Labour government in order to introduce fairness. They

:33:25.:33:28.

also want to know that we are in favour of free-form. There is no

:33:29.:33:33.

doubting that. Where is the evidence for that? -- in favour of reform.

:33:34.:33:39.

This is your own polling and it is not in line with what the public

:33:40.:33:42.

want or how they view you. That's what I just said. In addition to

:33:43.:33:47.

supporting in work benefits for people who are in low and middle

:33:48.:33:50.

income jobs, like tax credits and universal credit, we also need to be

:33:51.:33:56.

making an argument for reform. Do you accept you are not doing that?

:33:57.:34:00.

Well I think we are only just starting to do that. I'm going to be

:34:01.:34:04.

announcing in the New Year a big new commission by the Labour Party to

:34:05.:34:08.

look at Social Security, to try to present a Labour alternative,

:34:09.:34:13.

reformed social security system. There is no doubt that for

:34:14.:34:15.

generations people have increasingly become Miss trust for of the social

:34:16.:34:23.

securities system -- distrusting of the Social Security system. We need

:34:24.:34:28.

to win back people's trust. It should be a massive positive for our

:34:29.:34:31.

country that we have a generous welfare state, it is a positive.

:34:32.:34:38.

Which policy decisions so far are going to back up that idea of reform

:34:39.:34:42.

rather than people's idea that you are only four people on benefits if

:34:43.:34:47.

you are trying to your appeal? And you have talked about tax credits,

:34:48.:34:51.

but if you want to lower the benefit cap, if you now don't want to limit

:34:52.:34:56.

tax credits, which policy areas now back up what you've just said about

:34:57.:35:00.

reform? Well, we've said very clearly that we support the

:35:01.:35:04.

government in capping the overall spending on social security. And the

:35:05.:35:11.

benefit cap? Well, the benefit cap, interestingly, I think we've

:35:12.:35:16.

reserved judgment on. But it was only two weeks ago... That wasn't

:35:17.:35:21.

your view. Let me finish, if I may. Two weeks ago we had a legal opinion

:35:22.:35:26.

from a judge in London that the benefit cap was discriminating

:35:27.:35:29.

against disabled people. There is further evidence that the benefit

:35:30.:35:32.

cap is not doing what the government set out to do, it is not saving

:35:33.:35:34.

money because it means local councils are having to spend money

:35:35.:35:39.

on discretionary housing payments to support people being made homeless

:35:40.:35:43.

as a result of it. It isn't helping people back into work. It's only

:35:44.:35:47.

around 4% of people seem to be getting any benefit. So the question

:35:48.:35:51.

is, what is this benefit cap for in individual households? Yes we need

:35:52.:35:55.

of course to have a limit on the amount of money that people can have

:35:56.:35:58.

individually and as households but it has to reflect need. Well, that's

:35:59.:36:03.

important, because listening to you there, it sounded like you wanted to

:36:04.:36:08.

drop the idea of a benefit cap in principle. So you still support the

:36:09.:36:12.

idea of a benefit cap at ?26,000 per year? No we don't. But you did at

:36:13.:36:17.

the election support it? At the election we did, and since the

:36:18.:36:21.

election we have changed our view. Our view is that cutting it to

:36:22.:36:26.

?23,000 and ?20,000 which is what was included in the welfare bill,

:36:27.:36:30.

I'm afraid it is a congregated lot of numbers but we've got to get into

:36:31.:36:34.

them, that would mean that we would affect literally millions of people

:36:35.:36:37.

across Britain and it would have resulted in hardship and would have

:36:38.:36:41.

cost money. What should the cap be? We need to get back to a principle

:36:42.:36:45.

that people use to understand which is the connection between the sorts

:36:46.:36:48.

of support that you might receive from the state, the amount of money

:36:49.:36:53.

you contribute, so getting back a connection between contribution and

:36:54.:36:58.

reward, but also your need. So if you've got three children, or if you

:36:59.:37:02.

fall pregnant in a period where you lose your job, you don't get

:37:03.:37:05.

penalised for having that said child. It seems to me extraordinary

:37:06.:37:10.

that the government is penalising children. You are not supporting a

:37:11.:37:15.

cap at the moment? You cannot say ?26,000 was right, you are now

:37:16.:37:18.

reviewing the whole policy? You agree with Jeremy Corbyn that it

:37:19.:37:22.

results in social cleansing? I have been saying that for the last two

:37:23.:37:26.

months, there is nothing new that. We said we would oppose the

:37:27.:37:29.

reduction. When I spoke to you last time on daily politics you said you

:37:30.:37:33.

would stick to the principle of the benefits cap. I did not. You said in

:37:34.:37:38.

September that you wanted to have a benefit cap, in principle you did

:37:39.:37:42.

not agree with lowering it to ?23,000, and Jeremy Corbyn was

:37:43.:37:46.

against it. What I said very clearly, we were opposed to the

:37:47.:37:51.

reduction to ?23,000 and ?20,000 outside London. I said we were

:37:52.:37:54.

reviewing the concept of a benefits cap across the board. But that we do

:37:55.:37:59.

accept that there have to be limits on the amount of money that an

:38:00.:38:04.

individual households can get in benefits. And what we need to do is

:38:05.:38:07.

get to a point where we've got a much fairer set of criteria to now

:38:08.:38:11.

analyse and understand why we should be giving family X amount Y, and

:38:12.:38:18.

that should reflect their need. The number of children, the nature of

:38:19.:38:22.

work they are in, and the relative security of the family. The

:38:23.:38:26.

fundamental principles we have always adhered to. Most viewers out

:38:27.:38:29.

there will not understand a government that says we penalised

:38:30.:38:32.

children we take money away from them on the basis of how many

:38:33.:38:38.

children may have. You abstained on that issue earlier, but as you said,

:38:39.:38:43.

you changed your mind. Should colleagues of yours be worried about

:38:44.:38:46.

being sacked after voting against the leadership on air strikes? No, I

:38:47.:38:50.

don't think they should be. Obviously I'm not in charge of

:38:51.:38:54.

reshuffles, that's a job to Jeremy, but I just think this is newspaper

:38:55.:38:57.

tittle tattle. What I've seen in the way in which Jeremy has handled this

:38:58.:39:01.

in Shadow Cabinet is that he has been very keen to stress that we've

:39:02.:39:05.

got to be respectful of the different views. I voted against,

:39:06.:39:10.

others voted in favour, I don't think there is any reason, and I

:39:11.:39:13.

think any abuse that anyone has been subject to as a result of decisions

:39:14.:39:16.

taken in good conscience and good faith is disgraceful, and we should

:39:17.:39:21.

not settle for it or allow it in the Labour Party. Owen Smith, thank you.

:39:22.:39:24.

It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

:39:25.:39:27.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now

:39:28.:39:29.

Coming up here in twenty minutes, we'll be talking to

:39:30.:39:34.

the Conservative MP who used her maiden speech to rebel against her

:39:35.:39:44.

Hello and welcome to the Sunday Politics Wales.

:39:45.:39:47.

A Welsh MP warns that the airstrikes against so-called IS

:39:48.:39:50.

in Syria could radicalise more young Muslims here.The

:39:51.:39:54.

leader of the Welsh Conservatives says military action is right

:39:55.:39:57.

And two Syrian students tell us that they don't think

:39:58.:40:02.

During last week's ten-hour Syria debate in the commons,

:40:03.:40:09.

David Cameron said bombing the so called Islamic State militants

:40:10.:40:12.

The attackers in Paris last month were heard shouting "this is

:40:13.:40:19.

for Syria" - referring to France's involvement in air strikes there.

:40:20.:40:24.

But even if it's true that we're a bigger target for IS because

:40:25.:40:27.

of military action, should it be a reason for inaction?

:40:28.:40:30.

Four days after the vote, and several RAF missions over Syria have

:40:31.:40:37.

already been completed.

:40:38.:40:39.

Triggered by a vote at Westminster on Wednesday night.

:40:40.:40:44.

But in the cold light of day, the differences of opinion persist

:40:45.:40:47.

over whether it will make people here and in Syria safer.

:40:48.:40:52.

I fear the air strikes are going to create more refugees.

:40:53.:40:59.

It is going to benefit Assad in the long-running

:41:00.:41:01.

and I fear it is going to radicalise more young Muslims, not only in this

:41:02.:41:05.

I understand when people say we want peace.

:41:06.:41:08.

Most of us in this country, most of us really do want peace.

:41:09.:41:11.

But I think it is, how do we get that?

:41:12.:41:14.

And in my mind, joining in with other countries, showing such

:41:15.:41:17.

solidarity with France, coming in as part of an international force,

:41:18.:41:22.

joining with about 60 countries now in that

:41:23.:41:25.

countries at the Vienna talks, it is all part of it.

:41:26.:41:31.

This constituency, Cardiff South and Penarth, home to the National

:41:32.:41:36.

Assembly, is one of Wales's most diverse.

:41:37.:41:40.

Earlier in the week, in the House of Commons debate, the

:41:41.:41:43.

local MP Stephen Doughty talked about how some young Muslims here

:41:44.:41:47.

But will targeting the extremists in Syria make that more or less

:41:48.:41:53.

The local MP voted in favour of air strikes.

:41:54.:42:02.

His assembly colleague is torn and isn't sure which way he would

:42:03.:42:05.

The point is we already live in a world that isn't safe.

:42:06.:42:12.

What happened in Paris could just have easily been

:42:13.:42:15.

a city anywhere within Britain, including here in Cardiff.

:42:16.:42:18.

And let's not pretend that there aren't people already radicalised,

:42:19.:42:22.

living in Britain as well, who may contemplate a sort

:42:23.:42:28.

And if people can be attracted to the fascist cult that is Isis, then

:42:29.:42:35.

the risk exists already, and that's what makes this such a difficult

:42:36.:42:39.

choice, because I don't think anyone could hand on their heart say we

:42:40.:42:43.

absolutely can guarantee we are safer for action,

:42:44.:42:46.

or we can guarantee we are safer if we are not taking action, given we

:42:47.:42:50.

For other Cardiff Bay politicians, there was no doubt

:42:51.:42:58.

about the right course of action, and the need for air strikes.

:42:59.:43:03.

We have the defence forces, we have intelligence

:43:04.:43:08.

agencies, we have a government committed to national security and

:43:09.:43:11.

to the security of individuals, and I think that is the way the British

:43:12.:43:16.

people want their government to respond in making sure our country

:43:17.:43:19.

The bombing started within hours, but gauging

:43:20.:43:25.

whether the air strikes will lead to greater peace and security won't be

:43:26.:43:29.

Joining us from our Carmarthen studio is Christopher Salmon -

:43:30.:43:36.

the Dyfed Powys Police and Crime Commissioner - and a former soldier

:43:37.:43:39.

Good morning, thank you for joining us. Just give figure on that point

:43:40.:43:54.

in the report, do you think we are safer now having bigger than these

:43:55.:44:01.

air strikes against ISP? I think we can count ourselves lucky -- Isis.

:44:02.:44:08.

We have a strong civic society. We have this well established

:44:09.:44:10.

Institutes of government and security and a long history of

:44:11.:44:14.

dealing with threats of all sort in this country. There are no easy

:44:15.:44:19.

answers in this particular problem, and there are no bloodless answers.

:44:20.:44:24.

We know we are at threat. It is right we tried to confront that

:44:25.:44:31.

read, so where we are at the moment is in the process of dealing with

:44:32.:44:34.

the problem we see that arrived in Paris in such terrible form not long

:44:35.:44:38.

ago, and we know we are at threat here. Is there this new threat from

:44:39.:44:44.

the so-called lone wolf attackers? We've seen in London yesterday, a

:44:45.:44:50.

man, multiple stabbings in London, and reports of the man saying, this

:44:51.:44:57.

is the Syria. Those kind of attacks are impossible to defend against,

:44:58.:45:02.

aren't they? They are difficult, but this one was handled, it seems by

:45:03.:45:09.

the people around it. Those threats already existed, and I don't predict

:45:10.:45:14.

we see that the decision to extend what was happening in Iraq already

:45:15.:45:18.

in terms of air strikes into Syria necessarily makes them any worse. IS

:45:19.:45:24.

does not respect borders, it doesn't respect organisational boundaries.

:45:25.:45:31.

We need to respond in kind and to act across borders where we need

:45:32.:45:35.

to, and that is why it is the right action to use air power and to

:45:36.:45:39.

confront them. You say it is right to use air power and to confront

:45:40.:45:43.

them. You say it is right to use air powerful Iraq. Do you think air

:45:44.:45:50.

strikes alone is sufficient, or do do they need to be boots on the

:45:51.:45:54.

ground, soldiers being sent into Syria? I think ultimately,

:45:55.:46:00.

personally, I find it hard to see how it will be resolved without

:46:01.:46:03.

boots on the ground. The question is, whose boots are they? There are

:46:04.:46:08.

local forces that are talked about a great deal. But if you are going to

:46:09.:46:13.

arm them, you need to know who they are, and it's not easy. They need to

:46:14.:46:17.

be working towards a common aim stop if it's not local forces come these

:46:18.:46:22.

to be another form, maybe Western forces, that becomes much more

:46:23.:46:25.

politically difficult. That's my personal view, but in the

:46:26.:46:30.

short-term, let's not pretend air strikes effective, but in the long

:46:31.:46:36.

term it is effective. We need to make these people's lives as a ball,

:46:37.:46:40.

keep them on the move, keep them down. If they worrying about

:46:41.:46:45.

building tunnels, they have less time to plan attacks. That's what

:46:46.:46:49.

air strikes can help with. We've been conducting them in Iraq were

:46:50.:46:53.

some time, and they have been successful with local forces in

:46:54.:46:58.

pushing IS back. I would have thought the same logic will apply in

:46:59.:47:04.

Syria, but therefore it is right we extend that reach. As I say,

:47:05.:47:09.

personally, in the long run, it is hard to see how this will be

:47:10.:47:14.

achieved without boots on the ground. You are the police and

:47:15.:47:20.

crimes Commissioner for Powys, have you decided to increase the work

:47:21.:47:28.

going on there to see if a terrorist threat... Has changed how you deal

:47:29.:47:35.

with that port? It is a side of critical national infrastructure and

:47:36.:47:38.

is guarded accordingly, so there are more than the usual level of

:47:39.:47:43.

response officers around. There's a particular plan to police it, it's

:47:44.:47:47.

something I've discussed with the chief constable. He is aware of the

:47:48.:47:51.

threats as well. It is kept under constant review and is policed stop

:47:52.:47:59.

it is policed alongside the Wales counter extreme unit and with the

:48:00.:48:03.

counterterrorist police in London, so it stretches all the way across

:48:04.:48:08.

the UK. It is a concern, will keep it under review. But at the moment,

:48:09.:48:14.

there's nothing to suggest it is of a particular concern. There is no

:48:15.:48:19.

intelligence to suggest any plans of attacks against the board? The UK

:48:20.:48:25.

threat level is that severe, which means if Fred is likely, and that

:48:26.:48:30.

applies across the UK. We are replying to those in our patch -- a

:48:31.:48:42.

threat is likely. More broadly, Powys is a rural force area. You

:48:43.:48:47.

think you are more sheltered from terrorist threats, or is it equally

:48:48.:48:55.

valid target for Isis militant? We are more sheltered, the population

:48:56.:49:01.

demographic we have is relatively homogenous. It is a real area. To be

:49:02.:49:07.

fair, in Wales as a whole, we can be confident the risks are lower than

:49:08.:49:14.

they might be elsewhere in London and the Midlands. All that doesn't

:49:15.:49:21.

mean we mustn't be vigilant. We are on very high alert, and that does

:49:22.:49:27.

apply in Powys and Wales and across the UK. Our forces would be called

:49:28.:49:37.

upon, so we need to be prepared for that and vigilant. We need to be

:49:38.:49:41.

vigilant within our borders, at our borders and beyond. We will play our

:49:42.:49:46.

part in that, but we must keep everything in context and

:49:47.:49:49.

perspective, and I think we can be whether to be reassured that we have

:49:50.:50:02.

strong team -- strong communities. Thank you for your time.

:50:03.:50:06.

Some who support air strikes in Syria say there's

:50:07.:50:08.

They say there's a duty to help protect Syrian people from the yoke

:50:09.:50:13.

of Islamic State in the midst of almost five years of civil war.

:50:14.:50:16.

Bethan Lewis has been talking to two young Syrians - now studying

:50:17.:50:21.

For 18-year-old Nanna and 17-year-old Nazim, life on the

:50:22.:50:23.

Glamorgan coast is very different to their experiences

:50:24.:50:25.

They are students at Atlantic College, an international sixth form

:50:26.:50:30.

In the wake of the Westminster vote, they told me what they make

:50:31.:50:36.

of air strikes and talked about their lives back home.

:50:37.:50:40.

My life in Damascus was, before the war, was relatively pretty good.

:50:41.:50:47.

The problem was that my dad used to own pharmacies and they used to be

:50:48.:50:50.

In 2012 they were all destroyed, and the house was destroyed,

:50:51.:50:56.

I remember sometimes we would spend three nights without sleep because

:50:57.:51:03.

the bombing would be mostly at night and then you can't sleep, and during

:51:04.:51:06.

Once we had a bomb just outside the class.

:51:07.:51:10.

I used to live in the city of Homs, which is in central Syria.

:51:11.:51:14.

In 2012 the situation in Homs got really bad and we had to move

:51:15.:51:27.

During that, our old house was collapsed,

:51:28.:51:33.

so there was no other way of returning to

:51:34.:51:35.

My father and my older brother are in Germany.

:51:36.:51:42.

They've been refugees there for more than a year now.

:51:43.:51:44.

My mother and my younger brother are still in Syria, they now live

:51:45.:51:48.

Nanna and Nazim are both hoping to visit their families in Syria

:51:49.:51:53.

soon, and have strong views about the MPs'

:51:54.:51:56.

I'm disappointed in the decision because more

:51:57.:52:03.

The past two months proved that when Russia first,

:52:04.:52:12.

and France after it, decided to bomb the Islamic State and it didn't

:52:13.:52:17.

really pay off because they are, like, lots of civilians died for no

:52:18.:52:22.

I felt that when they took that decision, they were not thinking

:52:23.:52:28.

So I thought about it, if one of the MPs or even the

:52:29.:52:35.

Prime Minister's daughter was stuck in Syria,

:52:36.:52:39.

Joining us from our Cambridge studio is Sir Emyr Jones Parry - the former

:52:40.:52:45.

Good morning. What do you make of the wisdom then of launching these

:52:46.:53:03.

air strikes against IS and Syria? It was a difficult decision and a

:53:04.:53:07.

fascinating debate in the House of Commons, which explore the

:53:08.:53:11.

arguments. There's a real risk of not doing anything, as well as the

:53:12.:53:15.

risk of doing something. If you are under attack and there is a serious

:53:16.:53:20.

threat, it is a question of judgment, what do you do? On

:53:21.:53:25.

balance, the House of Commons believe the best thing was to act. I

:53:26.:53:29.

think the important thing is, this is not just attacking from the air,

:53:30.:53:36.

it is part of a coordinated plan. That'll have to involve a peace

:53:37.:53:39.

process. That's going to be difficult but I look to the Russians

:53:40.:53:43.

and Americans you actually come together and ready press for that.

:53:44.:53:47.

It means looking after the refugees and helping the countries in the

:53:48.:53:52.

region. And crucially it means getting the communities in which I

:53:53.:54:00.

still operating two separate them from these evil barbarians, I'd call

:54:01.:54:05.

them that, and in the end they will have to be troops on the ground.

:54:06.:54:11.

That, I think, means local countries will have 2 come up and play their

:54:12.:54:15.

part, because in the end what Iraq and Syria both need is better

:54:16.:54:20.

governance, they need governments which are responsive, not a

:54:21.:54:25.

government in Iraq which contributed to this problem, but governments

:54:26.:54:29.

which have control of the territory and deliver security, economic

:54:30.:54:34.

prospect, and do it without favour in ways that the people living in

:54:35.:54:38.

those countries can respect and want to stay there. That's the long-term

:54:39.:54:43.

challenge. We'll come back to that in a moment, but you are a man

:54:44.:54:46.

skilled in the arts of diplomacy and those discussions will be ongoing.

:54:47.:54:51.

Does the fact the UK is involved with air strikes in Syria, does that

:54:52.:54:55.

help or hinder their position when it comes to those UN or Nato

:54:56.:54:59.

discussions behind the scenes? There's always the assumption that

:55:00.:55:05.

the permanent five members of the Security Council have a particular

:55:06.:55:10.

role. That is right. It doesn't follow the role requires you to be

:55:11.:55:13.

bombing in order to be able to exercise influence. I'm sure the

:55:14.:55:19.

British diplomats and ministers have been trying to play their part. The

:55:20.:55:26.

fundamental factors that Russia and the US have to come to some

:55:27.:55:30.

accommodation, that a precondition, and then there need to be talks.

:55:31.:55:35.

They will be difficult. We've had five years of civil war. How will

:55:36.:55:38.

you bring the parties together, and which party is to bring together? In

:55:39.:55:42.

against the Free Syrian Army, they are a mix of different groups. Who

:55:43.:55:53.

is representing whom? Who is entitled to be at the table? And who

:55:54.:55:59.

can then deliver the outcome of what ever might be agreed? They are

:56:00.:56:04.

fundamental questions, and then when you add into the mix the countries

:56:05.:56:10.

in the region, around, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, what are they doing to

:56:11.:56:15.

facilitate and help the progress of ending negotiation? It is immensely

:56:16.:56:21.

complicated, difficult, that's why they haven't made much progress so

:56:22.:56:26.

far. But what they've got to do is get on with it and meanwhile these

:56:27.:56:31.

attacks will have to continue in order to try and restrain Isis, to

:56:32.:56:39.

stop any extension of territory that they control, and to deny them

:56:40.:56:43.

through the attacks on the oil wells, to deny them funding, which

:56:44.:56:47.

otherwise would be used for more nefarious purposes. Given, as you

:56:48.:56:54.

are blind in the region, and the difficulties of organising trips on

:56:55.:56:59.

the ground from the neighbouring countries, do you think it is almost

:57:00.:57:05.

inevitable there will be, if not UK, Western military boots on the ground

:57:06.:57:09.

and Syria? I don't think it is inevitable at all. I see no prospect

:57:10.:57:14.

of British troops being deployed in Syria as part of any effort to try

:57:15.:57:18.

and follow up what has been achieved by the attacks. Countries in the

:57:19.:57:23.

region will have to play a bigger part. What I would look for, if

:57:24.:57:34.

there was going to be an International of it, that the United

:57:35.:57:38.

Nations might deploy peacekeepers, but that is a long way down the

:57:39.:57:43.

road. One of the issues you highlighted is the need for Russia

:57:44.:57:47.

and the US to come together in these peace talks. How difficult will that

:57:48.:57:53.

be? Well, they met, didn't play, recently at a June 20 heads of

:57:54.:58:00.

government meeting? And the body language between the president of

:58:01.:58:02.

the United States and Russia didn't look to be the warmest, did it? The

:58:03.:58:08.

fact is, they have a responsibility to try and work together, and I hope

:58:09.:58:13.

that with suitable lubrication of the relationship that they can get

:58:14.:58:19.

point where the two Administration 's, putting aside their specific

:58:20.:58:24.

national interests, understand that globally the threat to all of us

:58:25.:58:30.

from what is happening, the need to look after the people in the region,

:58:31.:58:34.

to try and give them a decent government, for the first time in

:58:35.:58:40.

generations almost, and to restore peace, security and some economic

:58:41.:58:46.

prospect, that's the challenge. And it is meant, but it got to done.

:58:47.:58:48.

Thank you very much for your time. On Tuesday the Welsh Government

:58:49.:58:53.

publishes its draft budget for We heard on last week's programme

:58:54.:58:56.

that tough decisions will have to be taken because

:58:57.:59:00.

of cuts to how much money goes from the Treasury into the coffers

:59:01.:59:02.

of ministers in Cardiff Bay. In last year's budget, more money

:59:03.:59:06.

went into health, and local government

:59:07.:59:09.

and educational were the big losers. There's no way of explaining it

:59:10.:59:12.

in any other way. We have had a cut of 10%

:59:13.:59:17.

in our budget, and there have been some areas that have seen reductions

:59:18.:59:20.

in the funding. I would say that to

:59:21.:59:22.

you straightaway. We know that there's been

:59:23.:59:24.

difficulties, we've got a budget statement next

:59:25.:59:26.

week, and we're looking at ways to make sure the FE is in a less

:59:27.:59:30.

difficult position as we go forward. But you're quite right, it's been

:59:31.:59:33.

very hard on the FE sector. We haven't been able to keep up

:59:34.:59:36.

spending on everything, given the Jeff Jones is a former Labour

:59:37.:59:41.

council leader and a local He joins me now, thank you for

:59:42.:59:57.

coming in. Last week we had Jane Hutt, the finance minister for the

:59:58.:00:00.

Welsh government, saying two decisions have to be made. That

:00:01.:00:07.

almost underplaying it, really. It is a difficult spending review. The

:00:08.:00:11.

local government it is difficult because, to be fair to the Welsh

:00:12.:00:16.

assembly, for the first term of the UK coalition in 2010, the first four

:00:17.:00:20.

years they protect the local government. It is any larger they

:00:21.:00:24.

switched me to the health service. If you look at the spending review,

:00:25.:00:28.

English local government is expected to cut 24% in that period. In my

:00:29.:00:34.

opinion, Welsh government is three years behind English local

:00:35.:00:37.

government in terms of cuts. There's a point that they are talking about

:00:38.:00:42.

the funding for councils in England will be the council tax and business

:00:43.:00:47.

rate, and nothing century. Will we reach that point in Wales? People

:00:48.:00:53.

didn't pick this up because when the spending review was announced a look

:00:54.:00:55.

that tax credits and the performance of the shadow Labour Chancellor,

:00:56.:01:00.

instead of looking at what is a fundamental change. The next four

:01:01.:01:03.

years English lord government will lose much of its central grants, and

:01:04.:01:08.

the return and be expected to use business rates to replace it. I

:01:09.:01:13.

think that is a move by the UK government to actually do Volvo

:01:14.:01:17.

authority down to regional and local government, but at the same time you

:01:18.:01:22.

get accountability. Devolving income tax to Wales is all part of the

:01:23.:01:29.

system to reduce the size of the UK state. We know health will be

:01:30.:01:32.

getting more money, they announced at last check, but that means areas

:01:33.:01:37.

like education will lose out. I been hearing councils are telling schools

:01:38.:01:42.

they are expecting 16% cuts in the next three years. You hearing that?

:01:43.:01:48.

My own compounds of us been told some of its balance will be taken,

:01:49.:01:54.

some ?32,000, because they are strapped for cash. Local govern

:01:55.:01:57.

plays an important part of a help with social care. You have to be

:01:58.:02:01.

careful that if you could local governor and social care, it has an

:02:02.:02:05.

ongoing effect on the National Health Service, because you can't

:02:06.:02:08.

get all people out of hospital. It adds to pressure. You've got to look

:02:09.:02:13.

at local govern and say it isn't on its own, it does help health

:02:14.:02:19.

service. When you are thinking about the decisions, how challenging word

:02:20.:02:23.

beaver councils over the next year? Are you assuming more cuts? It is

:02:24.:02:29.

the period of the period up to 2020. It is the most difficult period

:02:30.:02:32.

local Gutman has ever faced. There we are, that's all we have time

:02:33.:02:35.

for. Thank you for watching. It is Coming up, all the rest

:02:36.:02:39.

of the national political news. Now, every new MP thinks hard

:02:40.:02:47.

about their first speech It's a chance to praise

:02:48.:02:49.

the constituency and raise some issues that are close

:02:50.:02:56.

to their heart, but there's a convention that on the whole

:02:57.:02:59.

they're pretty uncontroversial. Well, occasionally that

:03:00.:03:01.

convention is ignored. That's what the

:03:02.:03:04.

Conservative MP Heidi Allen chose to do when she devoted her maiden

:03:05.:03:07.

speech in October to a political hot potato, her own government's plans

:03:08.:03:10.

to cut tax credits. The Prime Minister has asked us that

:03:11.:03:20.

everything we do must pass the family test. Cutting tax credits

:03:21.:03:24.

before wages rise does not achieve that. Showing children that their

:03:25.:03:30.

parents would be better off not working at all does not achieve

:03:31.:03:35.

that. Sending a message to the poorest and most honourable in our

:03:36.:03:38.

society that we do not care does not achieve that either. Madam Deputy

:03:39.:03:46.

Speaker, I believe the pace of these reforms is too hard, too fast. As

:03:47.:03:51.

these proposals stand, too many people will be adversely affected.

:03:52.:03:58.

Something must give. For those of us proud enough to call ourselves

:03:59.:04:03.

compassionate conservatives, it must not be the backs of the working

:04:04.:04:05.

family we purport to serve. So that was Heidi Allen speaking out

:04:06.:04:08.

against tax credit cuts in October, cuts that were later dropped

:04:09.:04:11.

by the chancellor under pressure from her and other Conservative MPs

:04:12.:04:14.

and following a defeat in the House Well, Heidi Allen joins me now

:04:15.:04:18.

for her first national TV interview Welcome to the programme. How did it

:04:19.:04:29.

feel to go from being a little-known backbencher to a very rebellious one

:04:30.:04:33.

in the matter of one speech? The word rebellious does make me smile.

:04:34.:04:38.

You stand up in the House of Commons once and stand something and

:04:39.:04:43.

suddenly you are a rebel. I did not expected to have the impact it did.

:04:44.:04:48.

You didn't? Not at all. Was naivete? Rob Lee. It wasn't until my husband

:04:49.:04:55.

picked me up and asked whether I had seen the evening news I realised the

:04:56.:05:00.

momentum it was gathering. Because you were the headline. Pretty much.

:05:01.:05:04.

How did your fellow MPs react? Absolutely brilliant, from the old

:05:05.:05:10.

wise sages to the new members of Parliament, quietly in the corridors

:05:11.:05:14.

and writing me well done messages, saying that I had said things they

:05:15.:05:18.

wanted to but did not dare. And did George Osborne speak to you

:05:19.:05:23.

afterwards? No, but to be fed the big Secretary of State 's are not

:05:24.:05:25.

typically hanging around in the Commons anyway. He hasn't told you

:05:26.:05:31.

of? Knows. You voted for tax credit cuts, so what changed? My not

:05:32.:05:37.

understanding the detail. And I did not disagree that welfare needed

:05:38.:05:40.

reform and I still believe that, but the detail about how and the timing

:05:41.:05:45.

was not clear. And I'm on the work and pensions select committee also

:05:46.:05:48.

and we were doing a lot of work into the reset and it just became clear

:05:49.:05:52.

that the detail did not stack up. Do you think most MPs didn't understand

:05:53.:05:56.

the changes and then did or stuck to their curtains? I think everybody

:05:57.:06:03.

started to understand the changes, but it was whether they were content

:06:04.:06:09.

to stay with that or brave enough. Where would you make the ?12 billion

:06:10.:06:13.

of savings? We still can make the man that is the point, but it is the

:06:14.:06:17.

pace of change, how hard and fast. That was the part I could not

:06:18.:06:22.

accept. We are fortunate now that George Osborne has managed to find

:06:23.:06:25.

better tax receipts and we can take the cuts altogether. He hopes, that

:06:26.:06:31.

is just the forecast. You know the Institute for Fiscal Studies has

:06:32.:06:33.

said that actually there will still be many losers, it will be further

:06:34.:06:38.

down the line, in fact it could be a more difficult time for the

:06:39.:06:40.

Conservatives in the run-up to the election. Are you now against

:06:41.:06:44.

universal credit which will be, in fact, where those losers will have

:06:45.:06:49.

their money cut from? Not at all because universal credit, we are a

:06:50.:06:52.

way off from delivering it across the country, but the olden days of

:06:53.:06:57.

people earning an extra hour wage and benefit is being taken, that is

:06:58.:07:01.

smoothed out with universal credit. Crucially you give people longer to

:07:02.:07:05.

prepare. That was the bit I could not swallow, sorry, next April,

:07:06.:07:08.

gone. But they will still lose the money. There will be a transition

:07:09.:07:13.

period for some people, and there will be a chance for higher wages

:07:14.:07:19.

for some people to have increased, but the cold hard reality, according

:07:20.:07:22.

to the ISS, is that people could still lose over ?1000. That will

:07:23.:07:26.

still be hitting those people you said could not be hit this time

:07:27.:07:30.

round. But they will have longer to adjust to that. As you mention, the

:07:31.:07:34.

minimum wage and tax threshold will increase and it gives people time to

:07:35.:07:38.

prepare, to take on bed free childcare and so on. Doing it

:07:39.:07:42.

overnight would give people the chance to change their lives. It is

:07:43.:07:47.

having is somebody with you discussing what things you can do,

:07:48.:07:50.

can you look for extra work, what is the childcare situation, and being

:07:51.:07:55.

mental through that change. You said your colleagues reacted brilliantly

:07:56.:07:57.

and you seem to have made friends with the Shadow Work and Pensions

:07:58.:08:01.

Secretary who mentioned you in the interview, is it a worry you are

:08:02.:08:04.

being lauded by the other side? Not at all, I am not interested in being

:08:05.:08:09.

lauded by anybody, I just want good policy and the right decisions. I'd

:08:10.:08:14.

am not interested in the party. I heard one of your articles earlier

:08:15.:08:17.

in the programme about this new politics, that's what I want to see.

:08:18.:08:22.

A gentler kind of politics? Not even gentler, but just consensus, if you

:08:23.:08:26.

have a good idea, let's go with it. I have no truck with, Labour are

:08:27.:08:30.

terrible, conservatives are terrible. We are in that building to

:08:31.:08:33.

make things better, let's just shot up and do it. It sounds great if it

:08:34.:08:38.

can actually be done after years and generations of much more convert of

:08:39.:08:42.

politics, yet to be seen, do you have ambitions to go up the ladder?

:08:43.:08:47.

And is what you have done so far make it more difficult. I never did

:08:48.:08:51.

and you are right, it would make it more difficult, but that is a great

:08:52.:08:55.

sense of freedom. If I did not come into this to clamber up that greasy

:08:56.:08:58.

pole than it does not matter because I am free and that is a fantastic

:08:59.:09:02.

feeling, so long as my party don't deselect me. You have neatly moved

:09:03.:09:07.

on to our next subject, so thank you very much.

:09:08.:09:08.

So let's talk about the Labour Party.

:09:09.:09:10.

The former frontbencher Tristram Hunt has been calling for unity this

:09:11.:09:12.

morning, but that's something that seems to be in short supply to judge

:09:13.:09:15.

Today's Observer is one of several to report that

:09:16.:09:22.

the shadow cabinet is bracing itself for a 'revenge

:09:23.:09:25.

reshuffle' following the emphatic win at the Oldham by-election.

:09:26.:09:28.

It says the victory will embolden Jeremy Corbyn and his allies to

:09:29.:09:31.

get rid of those shadow ministers who didn't back him in the Commons

:09:32.:09:34.

reports on a possible reshuffle, and also says that Mr Corbyn's

:09:35.:09:46.

allies have accused MPs of spreading lies about his health in an attempt

:09:47.:09:49.

A lot of talk of civil war in the Labour Party, party within a party,

:09:50.:10:01.

groups coming from within the Labour Party to attack one side or the

:10:02.:10:06.

other, is that how you see it? Yes. This is as bad if not worse than

:10:07.:10:10.

when the SDP split. You had the extraordinary scenario where the

:10:11.:10:13.

leader of the Labour Party passionately believes that we should

:10:14.:10:15.

not be taking part in these air strikes and then you have the Shadow

:10:16.:10:19.

Foreign Secretary making the speech of a lifetime to say that absolutely

:10:20.:10:23.

we should do that. And Jeremy Corbyn is saying that he is committed to a

:10:24.:10:27.

new sort of inclusive style of politics, but some of the people who

:10:28.:10:31.

support him in the momentum group and the stop the War coalition are

:10:32.:10:34.

making some pretty barbed and unpleasant attacks on those people.

:10:35.:10:39.

So yes, it's pretty difficult in the Labour Party at the moment. And is

:10:40.:10:51.

it that anti-Corbyn MPs can not accept that he has won with a big

:10:52.:10:55.

mandate? Are they crying foul at every turn because they cannot get

:10:56.:10:59.

over it or is there an orchestrated campaign of intimidation that is, at

:11:00.:11:03.

the very least, being ignored by the Centre, if not discouraged? It is

:11:04.:11:07.

just that their views are fundamentally different. We should

:11:08.:11:12.

not understate the utter despair of those MPs who have been around for a

:11:13.:11:16.

long time, are on a different wing of the party to Jeremy Corbyn, you

:11:17.:11:20.

talk to them at the moment it's like having a counselling session with

:11:21.:11:24.

them. They simply do not see how this is going to play out, they

:11:25.:11:28.

cannot see a mechanism for changing things, they are completely at odds

:11:29.:11:32.

with this surge of new members who have joined the Labour Party, and

:11:33.:11:37.

then you've got this spectre of this organisation called Momentum which

:11:38.:11:41.

lets not forget is not just Labour Party members. It is an organisation

:11:42.:11:46.

for people of any political persuasion. And there is a real fear

:11:47.:11:55.

that Momentum will try to grip the centre of the party. We hear

:11:56.:11:59.

endlessly about campaigns to deselect a number of MPs which is

:12:00.:12:03.

denied by organisations like Momentum, which is not necessarily a

:12:04.:12:08.

Labour Party organisation. What is it we are talking about here?

:12:09.:12:11.

Deselection only really happens if an MP has committed a crime or is

:12:12.:12:15.

involved in expenses, not for a differing opinion. This is where the

:12:16.:12:27.

Corbyn-ites and the moderates have a similar opinion. The moderates want

:12:28.:12:31.

to get rid of Jeremy Corbyn but it is technically and constitutionally

:12:32.:12:35.

impossible. Deselection is incredibly rare. It is usually some

:12:36.:12:40.

kind of malfeasance on the part of the MP that promotes deselection. If

:12:41.:12:46.

boundary review goes through before 2020, that provides an almost

:12:47.:12:51.

accidental opportunity for a lot of people like Momentum to reselect

:12:52.:12:58.

rather than deselect existing MPs in various constituencies, and at the

:12:59.:13:03.

moment, ditched that MP and get some more aligned with their thinking.

:13:04.:13:07.

And they could then extend their influence. We've got ten seconds,

:13:08.:13:11.

Hilary Benn, what happened to him this week? He went from a pretty

:13:12.:13:15.

pedestrian politician to the Premiership, he is now a very big

:13:16.:13:20.

beast. And possible leader if it were ever to come. Such a long way

:13:21.:13:25.

off. That's it for today, thank you for being our guests today. I'll be

:13:26.:13:29.

back with daily politics tomorrow on BBC Two at noon, they never let me

:13:30.:13:34.

go. Andrew will be back next week. Remember, if it's Sunday, it's the

:13:35.:13:36.

Sunday politics.

:13:37.:13:38.

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