29/11/2015 Sunday Politics Wales


29/11/2015

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The Government continues its push for the UK to join air-strikes

:00:39.:00:44.

Is it winning the argument and does it have the votes in Parliament?

:00:45.:00:51.

We'll hear from former Tory defence secretary Liam Fox, and Respect

:00:52.:00:55.

Jeremy Corbyn is struggling to get his way over Syria, as he tries to

:00:56.:01:01.

persuade his Shadow Cabinet to back his opposition to bombing.

:01:02.:01:04.

We'll hear from Shadow Justice Secretary, Charlie Falconer.

:01:05.:01:08.

And the former Conservative chairman Grant Shapps resigns

:01:09.:01:10.

from the Government over allegations he failed to act on bullying claims

:01:11.:01:15.

inside the Tory Party, but is that really the end of the story?

:01:16.:01:19.

Focus on the vote on military action in Syria not Jeremy Corbyn's

:01:20.:01:24.

leadership or next year's Assembly elections says a Welsh Labour MP.

:01:25.:01:28.

Metropolitan Police but his spending decisions will have consequences for

:01:29.:01:32.

transport, housing and councils. So, yesterday,

:01:33.:01:41.

former Conservative Party chairman Grant Shapps resigned from

:01:42.:01:43.

the Government over allegations he failed to act on claims of bullying

:01:44.:01:47.

in the youth wing of the party. It's a complicated story,

:01:48.:01:50.

as Giles Dilnot explains. Grant Shapps, former co-chair

:01:51.:01:53.

of the Conservative Party and now a former minister, must wish

:01:54.:02:00.

as his senior aide Paul Abbot Clarke once tipped for the top

:02:01.:02:05.

by Tatler magazine unsuccessfully As a result of his behaviour

:02:06.:02:24.

during that campaign, about which complaints were made, he

:02:25.:02:28.

was taken off the candidates list. A girlfriend at the time declaring

:02:29.:02:31.

he was "unfit to be an MP". In early 2014,

:02:32.:02:38.

Mr Clarke approached the Conservatives and Grant Shapps

:02:39.:02:40.

in particular with an idea. It was simple, bus loads of young

:02:41.:02:43.

Tory activists to marginal seats during the 2015 general election

:02:44.:02:49.

campaign to doorstep constituents. In the face of of unshifting polls,

:02:50.:02:52.

the idea appealed to Conservative Central Headquarters but they

:02:53.:02:58.

wanted to have some control over it. Grant Shapps decided not only to

:02:59.:03:02.

back the idea, but help pay for it, and put Clarke in charge

:03:03.:03:06.

of the operation. never met are you going to be a part

:03:07.:03:10.

of this? -- are you going to be? Roadtrip 2015,

:03:11.:03:20.

as the plan was called, had another motive for Clarke, to see him back

:03:21.:03:22.

on the Conservative candidate list and perhaps he would have and this

:03:23.:03:25.

story ended if not for the apparent suicide in mid-September

:03:26.:03:28.

of a young activist called Elliot Johnson, who left a note, naming

:03:29.:03:31.

Mark Clarke as someone who'd been bullying him and a secret recording

:03:32.:03:33.

of Clarke challenging him in a pub. In the wake of Elliot Johnson's

:03:34.:03:37.

death, lurid allegations emerged about Clarke, alleging sexual

:03:38.:03:39.

misconduct, drugs, intimidation, blackmail and bullying connected to

:03:40.:03:41.

Roadtrip, all denied by Mark Clarke. But August e-mail exchanges

:03:42.:03:52.

between Mr Clarke and Mr Shapps' aide Paul Abbot show Mr Abbott was

:03:53.:03:54.

aware of complaints Nothing was done and since Mr Shapps

:03:55.:03:57.

gave Clarke an official Party role he has now resigned saying

:03:58.:04:04.

"the buck stops with me". The Prime Minister says a full

:04:05.:04:06.

internal investigation is under way. Elliot Johnson's father wants an

:04:07.:04:12.

independent external investigation. The most serious allegations

:04:13.:04:17.

about Clarke were made after Grant Shapps had been moved to

:04:18.:04:19.

a junior ministerial position and Lord Feldman, David Cameron's

:04:20.:04:24.

chief fundraiser and close friend, He says the party cannot find

:04:25.:04:27.

nor was aware of any written If, by falling on his sword,

:04:28.:04:33.

Mr Shapps hoped to stop the scandal spreading,

:04:34.:04:39.

he may actually only have become The Sunday Politics panel is here.

:04:40.:04:58.

Nick, here is the case for Shapps. He has been made a scapegoat. This

:04:59.:05:05.

is not the end of the story. I think it is not the end of the story.

:05:06.:05:09.

Grant Shapps did sign up Mark Clark to do this. I think it is getting

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awfully close to the door of Andrew Feldman. They went -- he went to

:05:15.:05:23.

college with the Prime Minister and organised some balls. They go back a

:05:24.:05:29.

long way. The road trip was run out of Conservative campaign

:05:30.:05:31.

headquarters in the run-up to the general election. Most significantly

:05:32.:05:35.

for Andrew Feldman, he signed the checks to allow the road trip to

:05:36.:05:41.

take place. We're not talking small cheques, we are talking many

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hundreds of thousands of pounds. Grant Shapps was in charge of it on

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a day-to-day basis but Andrew Feldman and his sister helped the

:05:51.:06:02.

running of the road trip. What it does is put the attention onto some

:06:03.:06:05.

of the attention onto summary the attention would be, what did Andrew

:06:06.:06:10.

Feldman do? What did he know and when and what did he do? What we

:06:11.:06:17.

have to remember is Baroness Warsi, who was co-chairman, kicked this guy

:06:18.:06:23.

out of the party. Feldman was Chairman Ben and Shapps brought him

:06:24.:06:28.

back. Feldman was co-chairman and Feldman is still the chairman now.

:06:29.:06:32.

In terms of the party, what some people were saying to me yesterday,

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actually, it cannot be seen that Cameron is protecting Lord Fellman

:06:37.:06:45.

-- Feldman because he is his friend. He has got questions to answer. I

:06:46.:06:50.

also think that if people who are in the party feel these questions are

:06:51.:06:55.

not being answered, and it is not an open process, loads more leaks will

:06:56.:07:01.

come out and it will get messier and messier and messier. It is a rum do,

:07:02.:07:08.

what was going on inside the Tory Party in its youth wing. Multiple

:07:09.:07:13.

allegations of bullying and sexual harassment. Culminating in this

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young man taking his life on a railway line. It is an appalling

:07:18.:07:23.

thing. There is a history of unusual behaviour amongst Conservative

:07:24.:07:26.

students going back to the 1980s when Norman Tebbit closed down the

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Confederation of Conservative students. It is the most extreme

:07:30.:07:38.

incident I have ever encountered. This is about personal behaviour.

:07:39.:07:44.

The parents of Elliott Johnson raised an important question of

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chronology. Grant Shapps stop being co-chairman in May. Some of the

:07:49.:07:52.

allegations against Mark Clark, some of the complaints surfaced as

:07:53.:08:01.

recently as August. There is a deeper structural problem, which is

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the Conservative Party does not have activists. They have to find them

:08:07.:08:11.

where they can get them. Or, when summary has a reputation as bad as

:08:12.:08:15.

Mark Clark, they end up going along with them because options are so

:08:16.:08:21.

limited. It will not be the end of the story.

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David Cameron is expected to ask MPs to approve UK air strikes

:08:23.:08:25.

The Government thinks it now has enough support to risk a vote

:08:26.:08:29.

in the Commons, even though the Labour Party is still unclear.

:08:30.:08:32.

And the PM will almost certainly need Labour votes to get his way.

:08:33.:08:35.

Mr Corbyn is still trying to rally his Shadow Cabinet and Labour MPs

:08:36.:08:38.

He told Andrew Marr they should recognise his direct mandate

:08:39.:08:41.

And so what I've done is what I said I would always do,

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I would try to democratise the way the party does things.

:08:46.:08:48.

Yes, I have sent an e-mail to party members, and actually,

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70,000 have already replied with their views.

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I don't know what all the views are, obviously, I haven't read them all,

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Surely we must recognise that in a democracy, the Labour Party has

:08:58.:09:06.

a very large membership, nearly 400,000 members, they have a right

:09:07.:09:08.

to express their point of view and MPs have to listen to it and have to

:09:09.:09:12.

try and understand what's going on in the minds

:09:13.:09:14.

I've been joined by Charlie Falconer, Jeremy Corbyn's

:09:15.:09:25.

Are you minded to support government on the subject of Syrian air

:09:26.:09:38.

strikes? I am. Then need to be assurances, given to the House of

:09:39.:09:41.

Commons but I am minded to support air strikes. The reason I am, I

:09:42.:09:47.

think Isil poses a threat to the region and also Europe, including

:09:48.:09:52.

the United Kingdom. I believe air strikes over Iraq and Syria are

:09:53.:09:56.

having an effect on reducing that risk. I think it is wrong that we

:09:57.:10:01.

are participating in Syria when what is going on is we are trying to

:10:02.:10:06.

defend the United Kingdom. I believe the only long-term solution is there

:10:07.:10:10.

needs to be a solution to the Syrian civil war and the bombing of cracker

:10:11.:10:15.

will not significantly contribute to that. -- Raqqa. I believe we do not

:10:16.:10:25.

have a choice. The likelihood is that the Shadow Cabinet will agree a

:10:26.:10:32.

collective position in this matter. There are honourably held collective

:10:33.:10:35.

views. The Shadow Cabinet on Thursday, they were appropriately

:10:36.:10:41.

discussing. Everybody was conscious of the fact we have to reach a

:10:42.:10:46.

conclusion in national interests. With an issue like this where there

:10:47.:10:51.

is agreement on the factual material, international law, the

:10:52.:10:59.

final judgment, there is such a difficult decision to be made, it is

:11:00.:11:04.

not surprising that our disagreements in the Shadow Cabinet.

:11:05.:11:07.

It is unlikely that tomorrow you will be able to agree a collective

:11:08.:11:12.

line. I think that is right. It is unlikely we'll be able to agree a

:11:13.:11:19.

yes or no answer to the question the Government is about to post. If it

:11:20.:11:25.

does not and there is a free vote for this among Labour MPs, it does

:11:26.:11:34.

make it certain that Mr Cameron will win by a convincing majority. I do

:11:35.:11:41.

not know the position. I think everyone is weighing up the merits

:11:42.:11:45.

of the argument. The right thing to do is for mothers of the

:11:46.:11:47.

Parliamentary Labour Party members of the Shadow Cabinet to consider

:11:48.:11:50.

all the arguments and reach a conclusion as to what they think is

:11:51.:11:56.

in the national interest. It is clear that enough Labour MPs will

:11:57.:12:00.

abstain or side with the Government to give Mr Cameron a majority, even

:12:01.:12:06.

if that are some Tory defectors. If the position where it was whipped

:12:07.:12:10.

against by the Labour Party, that with very significantly reduce the

:12:11.:12:14.

chances if it were a free vote. I do not know what the final figures

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would be. Your figures sound right. Should there be a free vote? What is

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the alternative given the position you are into a free vote? My own

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view is I do not think this very important issue should be allowed to

:12:30.:12:35.

be a situation that forces resignations on people. I think the

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right course is, if the Shadow Cabinet cannot come to a collective

:12:39.:12:42.

view, and I accept that maybe unlikely, probably the best course

:12:43.:12:47.

is a free vote. That is ultimately for the leadership to decide. For an

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opposition which aspires to government when you're not a

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debating society. You are the opposition, the alternative

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government. What would voters think if you cannot agree a collective

:13:01.:13:04.

position on something as important as war? What the Government be

:13:05.:13:16.

seeing is a legitimate debate. The public is like the Parliamentary

:13:17.:13:18.

Labour Party and like the saddo Cabinet, of different views. You

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need to come to a collective view. We need to know your view on this.

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The differences with this is I do not think it will be possible. I do

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not think that is surprising. That reflects the debate that is going on

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in the country. The debate going on in the country is going on within

:13:37.:13:43.

the Labour Party. If Mr Corbyn was to attempt, and he said this morning

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it is his decision to whip or not. If there were a decision to whip

:13:48.:13:51.

Labour members to vote against bombing, would that be a resignation

:13:52.:13:58.

matter for you? I do not want to comment on that. I very much hope

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any sort of resignations will be avoided. I think the position will

:14:03.:14:06.

be we will have a further discussion on Monday and a collective you will

:14:07.:14:10.

be reached as to how we go forward in relation to the progress. One

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Labour MP told us that Mr Corbyn's and of this vote seems to him like a

:14:16.:14:20.

deliberate search for a fight and he is very disappointed. I do not

:14:21.:14:26.

agree. The key thing about what is happening now is not who sent a

:14:27.:14:30.

letter when. The key thing which the public want us to debate is the

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question itself. Should we support air strikes or not? I think the

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important thing about this week will not be who said what to whom but

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will be where you stood on the issue. It is one of those issues

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where the judgment about what was right and what was wrong will not

:14:49.:14:54.

come on the basis of the politics of these few days. It will come on what

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happens going forward. What was the right decision? Let me ask you this.

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We do not have much time. Because you are a lawyer and an expert on

:15:07.:15:11.

the Labour Party, if Labour MPs sought to unseat Mr Corbyn, and

:15:12.:15:16.

there is some wild talk around on that, witty automatically be on the

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ballot paper of a new leadership election? I have not addressed that.

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It is not a moment to talk about any sort of leadership challenge. Jeremy

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Corbyn is leader. He was elected two months ago with a huge mandate. That

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is the position within the Labour Party and that is where we have to

:15:37.:15:40.

address it. It can hardly be a stable position to have a Labour

:15:41.:15:44.

leader, in such a key issue has bombing in Syria, at odds with a

:15:45.:15:48.

huge chunk of his Shadow Cabinet rest room at that position is

:15:49.:15:54.

unsustainable over the period. It was absolutely clear when Jeremy was

:15:55.:15:58.

elected, there were significant disagreements between Jeremy and

:15:59.:16:01.

others on policy. What is happening is the Labour Party is holding

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together. So far. So, once again a British government

:16:05.:16:11.

is gearing up extend military action It's a well-trod road

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and the outcome has not always been predictable, or pleasant,

:16:17.:16:20.

which is why so many are hesitant. Ellie Price has been looking

:16:21.:16:23.

at the Prime Minister's case for action, and what role the UK

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military might play. That bomb in Paris,

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that could have been London. If they had their way,

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it would be London. I can't stand here

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and say we're safe I can't stand here either

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and say we will remove the threat from the action we take, but do I

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stand here with advice behind me that taking action will degrade

:16:44.:16:46.

and reduce that threat over time? Absolutely,

:16:47.:16:49.

and I've examined my conscience David Cameron says he no longer

:16:50.:16:50.

wants to outsource this sort Britain is currently involved in air

:16:51.:16:58.

strikes against so-called Islamic State, but only in Iraq, shown here

:16:59.:17:03.

in the bottom half of this shot. The border, for British forces

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at least, is crucial. IS, Isis, Daesh - whatever you want

:17:08.:17:13.

to call it - control or is free to operate in swathes of territory

:17:14.:17:18.

in Iraq and Syria. Its so-called caliphate stretches

:17:19.:17:23.

from Aleppo in Syria to The lines on the map are relatively

:17:24.:17:25.

fluid, it recently lost control That was down to Kurdish forces with

:17:26.:17:31.

the help of US-led air strikes. Currently Australia,

:17:32.:17:38.

Canada and France are also flying bombing missions over both

:17:39.:17:41.

countries, targeting IS. According to the latest figures

:17:42.:17:46.

released on Friday, the US and its allies operating

:17:47.:17:50.

under the banner of Operation Inherent Resolve have conducted more

:17:51.:17:52.

than 8,500 air strikes against Islamic State targets since the

:17:53.:17:57.

start of the campaign last year. That's 5,580 air strikes in Iraq

:17:58.:18:02.

and 2,925 in Syria. More than 16,000 targets have been

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damaged or destroyed, including more than 4,500 buildings,

:18:09.:18:12.

nearly 5,000 fighting positions, and The vast majority have come from US

:18:13.:18:17.

aircraft, but the RAF has run 376 They've been launched

:18:18.:18:25.

from this base in Cyprus, where The base has also been used to

:18:26.:18:31.

carry out refuelling and The perception out there is

:18:32.:18:37.

the question as to whether or not the UK should be involved

:18:38.:18:44.

in the campaign in Syria or not. The reality is we are involved in

:18:45.:18:47.

that campaign but in an inconsistent Other countries, our allies,

:18:48.:18:50.

the Americans and French in particular, just don't quite

:18:51.:19:06.

understand where we are up to. The PM insists

:19:07.:19:08.

the RAF can provide specific skills that coalition partners are keen to

:19:09.:19:10.

make the most of. The ability to launch highly

:19:11.:19:13.

accurate Brimstone missiles. We are very good

:19:14.:19:15.

at not killing people collaterally, the UK, so in that sense I think us

:19:16.:19:17.

moving into Syria is good. The sad thing is that no matter how

:19:18.:19:20.

good you are, there will be innocent people killed but they are dying

:19:21.:19:24.

anyway because of Isil, and it's coming to the stage where you have

:19:25.:19:29.

to move forward and do things, even though that sort of thing happens,

:19:30.:19:33.

that cannot be Of course Russia is also involved

:19:34.:19:35.

in air strikes in Syria, but its support of President Assad's

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regime puts it at odds with The scale of these tensions

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demonstrated when Turkey, which vehemently opposes Assad, shot

:19:43.:19:49.

down a Russian plane last week. Most experts agree that air strikes

:19:50.:19:55.

alone will not destroy the common enemy of IS, that ground forces will

:19:56.:19:59.

be needed, but agreeing on exactly who those forces would be, could

:20:00.:20:04.

prove the biggest obstacle to peace. We are joined now by George

:20:05.:20:29.

Galloway. What should be done to thwart Islamic State, if not British

:20:30.:20:34.

bombing, what should be done to hit it in its heartland? Most of these

:20:35.:20:37.

terrorist attacks were carried out by people living in the countries in

:20:38.:20:42.

which they operated, Tunisia, France, Belgium and so on so you

:20:43.:20:49.

will not physically stop people bombing Raqqa turning up on the

:20:50.:20:56.

streets of Paris. But the planning involved Islamic State. There's not

:20:57.:21:02.

much logistics involved in taking arms into a nightclub and killing

:21:03.:21:09.

innocent people. There are many weapons in Europe, nobody is

:21:10.:21:12.

suggesting these weapons came from Syria. I don't want to dodge your

:21:13.:21:17.

question, I must strongly in favour of destroying Isis and Al-Qaeda as

:21:18.:21:23.

anybody else, more than the David Cameron government or they wouldn't

:21:24.:21:27.

be tolerating a situation where Turkey and Saudi Arabia have been

:21:28.:21:31.

supporting these people for years and until now are supporting them.

:21:32.:21:38.

We are steeped in blog so far but it is bloodier to go on, I promise you.

:21:39.:21:44.

What would you do? I would support the people fighting Isis and

:21:45.:21:54.

Al-Qaeda on the ground. The wide PG militia -- YPG militia. Give them

:21:55.:22:04.

weapons, every kind of support we can. It is a far better way than us

:22:05.:22:13.

joining in. Do you support Russian attacks on the anti-Assad forces in

:22:14.:22:23.

Syria? Yes, if they are coordinated with the Syrian government's army.

:22:24.:22:31.

So do you support British attacks on Islamic State forces in Iraq at

:22:32.:22:34.

their request of the Iraq government? I do, and if they were

:22:35.:22:40.

coordinated with the Government that make sense militarily, and if we

:22:41.:22:46.

coordinated our involvement with Russia and the Syrian government in

:22:47.:22:50.

Syria, I would support that too but it's because I'm pretty sure the

:22:51.:22:54.

British government's real game is regime change and because we have

:22:55.:22:59.

seen regime change before in Iraq and Libya and they ended so

:23:00.:23:03.

disastrously, I am against it. It's not because I'm a pacifist. There

:23:04.:23:11.

was a time when David Cameron's priority was to get rid of a sad's

:23:12.:23:17.

regime but isn't it clear that David Cameron has realised that defeating

:23:18.:23:22.

Islamic State is more important to Britain's national interest than

:23:23.:23:27.

getting rid of Mr Assad? If it were you probably wouldn't have me on

:23:28.:23:30.

because I would be supporting it, but I don't believe that. I pray his

:23:31.:23:36.

utterly farcical claim in the House this week that there were 70,000

:23:37.:23:40.

moderate rebels armed and ready to take over the land liberated by our

:23:41.:23:47.

bombardment. You say that is fantasy? If there were 700 I would

:23:48.:23:53.

be surprised. We will bomb territory which will then be taken by other

:23:54.:23:57.

so-called moderate fanatics, the ones as I said to you before that

:23:58.:24:06.

only cut off half your head. Should we regard the Russians and the Assad

:24:07.:24:11.

regime as our allies in the fight against Islamic State? We had that

:24:12.:24:20.

chance and that was incinerated by our ally on his attack on the

:24:21.:24:25.

Russian air force bombing these people, shot out of the sky

:24:26.:24:29.

provoking a crisis between east and west, between Nato and Russia, which

:24:30.:24:34.

was completely unnecessary and completely contrary to any

:24:35.:24:40.

legitimate war aims. Could it not still be put together? I wish it

:24:41.:24:48.

would, I suspect it won't. If we had time to discuss it I would operate

:24:49.:24:53.

this point. Turkey is the source of this problem, the Turkish border has

:24:54.:24:59.

been open to these people. They have been selling billions of dollars

:25:00.:25:04.

worth of oil. A lot of it is being stolen by Isil and sold in Turkey, I

:25:05.:25:12.

believe to relatives of President Erdogan, which is then sold onwards

:25:13.:25:16.

to neighbouring countries. You cannot be serious about fighting

:25:17.:25:21.

Isil while you're Nato ally is openly collaborating with them. You

:25:22.:25:26.

follow closely what is going on in the Labour Party at the moment, does

:25:27.:25:31.

Jeremy Corbyn have an alternative to a free vote when this comes up for a

:25:32.:25:38.

vote in the Commons? If I were him, I would whip the vote because his

:25:39.:25:54.

enemies in the ... Because our record on intervention is so bad,

:25:55.:25:58.

because the likelihood of it not going well is so high, I would dare

:25:59.:26:05.

these rebels to facilitate David Cameron's court. Is that the

:26:06.:26:12.

intention? It looks to me as if it is ripping itself apart. This is

:26:13.:26:17.

Ramsay MacDonald in reverse, the leader remaining loyal to the party

:26:18.:26:22.

and the MPs joining effectively and national government in terms of War

:26:23.:26:25.

and peace at least so if I were Jeremy Corbyn, I would whip this

:26:26.:26:31.

vote and let the Labour members pass verdict on those that troop into the

:26:32.:26:35.

lobby with Liam Fox and David Cameron because I am pretty sure

:26:36.:26:41.

this is not going to end well. Even at the expense of ripping apart the

:26:42.:26:47.

Shadow Cabinet too? You would be whipping the Shadow Cabinet where

:26:48.:26:52.

there seems to be a majority against Jeremy Corbyn's position. Some of

:26:53.:26:55.

them might surprise you with their fidelity to the party in those

:26:56.:27:00.

circumstances, others might go. They are supporting the elected leader in

:27:01.:27:05.

the way the rope supports a hanging man. What are the chances of Jeremy

:27:06.:27:12.

Corbyn following your advice? Probably not, I would think

:27:13.:27:15.

listening to John McDonald and Ken Livingstone they will go for a free

:27:16.:27:22.

vote, that will merely postponed... And give David Cameron his big

:27:23.:27:28.

majority. Yes. It seems to me time to face that up. Thank you very

:27:29.:27:44.

much. At this point we say goodbye to viewers in Scotland.

:27:45.:27:47.

Party divisions on the issue of air strikes

:27:48.:27:48.

Here's the Conservative MP and chairman of the Defence Select

:27:49.:27:52.

Committee, Julian Lewis, speaking in the Commons debate on Thursday.

:27:53.:27:55.

Air strikes alone will not be effective,

:27:56.:27:56.

they've got to be in coordination with credible ground forces.

:27:57.:27:59.

Now, the suggestion there are 70,000 non-Islamist, moderate, credible

:28:00.:28:01.

ground forces, I have to say, is a revelation to me and I suspect

:28:02.:28:04.

I've been joined by former Conservative Defence

:28:05.:28:08.

Two years ago you want to Britain to bomb the forces of President Assad,

:28:09.:28:22.

who is fighting Islamic State, now you want us to bomb Islamic State,

:28:23.:28:28.

which is fighting President Assad. Doesn't map flip-flop undermine your

:28:29.:28:32.

credibility? The original vote was very different, it was because Assad

:28:33.:28:37.

had used chemical weapons in breach of international law against his

:28:38.:28:42.

civilian population and the question then was worthy international

:28:43.:28:45.

community going to uphold that international law by making a

:28:46.:28:49.

punitive strike to teach the Assad regime and the rebels, who it was

:28:50.:28:53.

suspected might also have chemical weapons, that it would not be

:28:54.:29:00.

acceptable to use them. But it would have created more chaos in Syria and

:29:01.:29:05.

allowed Islamic State to benefit, to exploit that, as it had done

:29:06.:29:11.

previously. I'm not sure I'd buy that because if you have made a

:29:12.:29:14.

relatively small number of punitive strikes from some of the command and

:29:15.:29:19.

control of the regime to send a signal not to use chemical weapons

:29:20.:29:25.

again, that would have upheld the international community's position.

:29:26.:29:32.

Do you accept that extending British bombing into Syria now against

:29:33.:29:36.

Islamic State this time is not a military game changer, that it is --

:29:37.:29:41.

its military impact will be marginal at most? I think its military impact

:29:42.:29:48.

may be moderate at best, I accept that, however within that we have a

:29:49.:29:53.

number of weapons systems that can diminish the chance of civilian

:29:54.:29:56.

casualties, and I think that's important because it denies a

:29:57.:30:01.

propaganda weapon. Obviously anything that reduces civilian

:30:02.:30:06.

casualties is vital, but it won't change things very much on the

:30:07.:30:07.

ground militarily. The fact we have not been there has

:30:08.:30:19.

been an encouragement for other countries. For example, Saudi

:30:20.:30:24.

Arabia, UAE, Jordan, in recent months they have stopped

:30:25.:30:29.

contributing to the air campaigns. It makes it more difficult for us to

:30:30.:30:33.

persuade them to take part if we are not taking part. We have a

:30:34.:30:40.

militarily absurd policy of bombing in Iraq but not in Syria. After we

:30:41.:30:46.

have joined America, France, Bahrain, Syria, Russia, Australia,

:30:47.:30:54.

and recently Saudi Arabia and the UAE in bombing IS in Syria, what

:30:55.:31:01.

then? The question is, our ability to degrade military capability. One

:31:02.:31:04.

of the problems with sorties in Iraq is command and control is coming

:31:05.:31:09.

from Syria. That is where they are drawing strength from. The US has

:31:10.:31:16.

launched 2703 strikes in Syria alone and others have carried out 154. Why

:31:17.:31:23.

is that not doing the degrading? You have to carry out the number of

:31:24.:31:28.

attacks to provide that degradation. We need to continue that. The

:31:29.:31:33.

question you are alluding to is the right question. Even if you have

:31:34.:31:38.

degraded the ices capabilities, which is what we want, what is the

:31:39.:31:43.

next step? How do you hold any territory you may take from them?

:31:44.:31:49.

Part of the reply from the Prime Minister is there are 70,000

:31:50.:31:52.

moderate opposition fighters ready to become the ground force against

:31:53.:31:57.

Islamic State. Who is the leader and what do they want? You have a

:31:58.:32:05.

disparate grouping. Not 70,000 acting together. What the Prime

:32:06.:32:09.

Minister was saying from the joint intelligence committee, what they

:32:10.:32:13.

are saying was, there is a potential force of that size. The longer we

:32:14.:32:18.

wait to do great ices, the smaller that force is likely to be and the

:32:19.:32:23.

less its capabilities are likely to be. -- Isis. It is a fantasy to say

:32:24.:32:32.

there are 70,000 ground troops ready to come in and help on the ground if

:32:33.:32:38.

we extend the bombing to Syria. Let's assume the numbers are

:32:39.:32:43.

correct. To further questions we have to ask. Are they willing to

:32:44.:32:48.

operate together as a single force? The second is, do they have the

:32:49.:32:53.

capability to do so? Over the next few days, part of the debate will be

:32:54.:32:58.

around that. It will be around the fact you may have to supply some of

:32:59.:33:02.

those forces with mentoring and training to enable them to be able

:33:03.:33:09.

to be an effective force against Isis, which they have not

:33:10.:33:12.

necessarily been able to up until now. The wacky experience on that

:33:13.:33:22.

was disastrous. I would say, look at the other side. -- the wacky

:33:23.:33:30.

experience. Look at our ability to mental the Afghan army. Isn't it

:33:31.:33:37.

inevitable that everyone to make progress against Islamic State, in

:33:38.:33:41.

some way, President Assad and the Russians will have to become our

:33:42.:33:47.

allies? This is a very difficult pill to swallow for many people, who

:33:48.:33:53.

think the regime is particularly unpleasant. I would love to see a

:33:54.:33:57.

different regime in place that was not killing its civilian population

:33:58.:34:02.

and gay people in Syria chance to discover their own future. But, as

:34:03.:34:07.

we have done in previous military situations, sometimes we have to

:34:08.:34:09.

recognise these challenges have to be dealt with in series, not in

:34:10.:34:15.

parallel. That is what is very important about the statement by the

:34:16.:34:19.

Prime Minister. It is not an ices only strategy but Aaron -- Raqqa

:34:20.:34:31.

only strategy but and Raqqa first strategy. You are saying you are

:34:32.:34:42.

getting support of factions. The important thing is we bring together

:34:43.:34:47.

all those who want to deal with IS first. They are the threat to

:34:48.:34:53.

national. We need to grasp the size of that threat to national to. They

:34:54.:34:58.

hate us, Andrew. Not because of what we do because of who we are. They

:34:59.:35:06.

will never stop that. Why would we get help from non-IS forces on the

:35:07.:35:11.

ground if we are also seem to be on the side of the Russians? They are

:35:12.:35:16.

also a threat to those people inside Syria. It is in the interests of all

:35:17.:35:21.

parties concerned to deal with what is a highly ideological, dangerous,

:35:22.:35:29.

fascistic threat. They endanger regional security. We must not allow

:35:30.:35:32.

them Hello and welcome to the

:35:33.:35:39.

Sunday Politics Wales. Does Wales win or lose from

:35:40.:35:41.

George Osborne's spending review? We hear from the Welsh Government's

:35:42.:35:46.

finance minister. How sustainable is

:35:47.:35:49.

the current university tuition fee Could a UK Government economic

:35:50.:35:52.

statistics review lead to job But first,

:35:53.:35:59.

as we've been hearing already this morning, next week there's likely to

:36:00.:36:05.

be a vote on whether or not the UK should take part in air strike

:36:06.:36:08.

against so-called IS in Syria. The RAF has already taken part in

:36:09.:36:12.

1,600 missions against the group in Iraq, but doesn't have the authority

:36:13.:36:16.

to widen the attack in the region. Some Conservative MPs have

:36:17.:36:19.

misgivings, so David Cameron really needs as much support as

:36:20.:36:24.

possible from opposition benches. Plaid Cymru and the SNP say

:36:25.:36:30.

the Prime Minister has failed to convince them of the merits

:36:31.:36:33.

of air strikes. Over the weekend, the

:36:34.:36:36.

Defence Secretary Michael Fallon has been phoning Labour MPs trying to

:36:37.:36:38.

get their support for air strikes. The Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has

:36:39.:36:43.

e-mailed party members setting out his opposition

:36:44.:36:46.

and seeking their views. Early this morning,

:36:47.:36:50.

I spoke with one MP who has sought the view of her constituents

:36:51.:36:52.

through social media and says overwhelmingly the response has

:36:53.:36:55.

been against air strikes. I'm almost certain that

:36:56.:37:00.

I'll vote against air strikes. I'd thought about it

:37:01.:37:04.

for a long time, I've been getting correspondence from constituents

:37:05.:37:07.

for a number of weeks about it. I'm pretty certain I'm

:37:08.:37:11.

going to vote against. There was nothing

:37:12.:37:13.

in the statement this week that gave me any more information or any

:37:14.:37:15.

more comfort about the fact this is a coherent and long-term plan

:37:16.:37:18.

for the problem of Isil Daesh. How much of a concern is it for you

:37:19.:37:24.

that there doesn't seem, at the moment, to be a plan for what will

:37:25.:37:27.

happen after the bombing campaign? There could be that power vacuum and

:37:28.:37:31.

everyone is painfully aware of what Do you have actual concerns

:37:32.:37:35.

about what would happen The Prime Minister is talking

:37:36.:37:40.

about air strikes and 70,000 Syrian Free Army that he thinks will

:37:41.:37:47.

fill that vacuum in territory I don't think this figure is

:37:48.:37:51.

plausible or credible and I'm waiting to hear much more

:37:52.:37:58.

about a plan beyond the bombing. We're not hearing anything about

:37:59.:38:04.

that at the moment and I'm very, very concerned we don't learn the

:38:05.:38:07.

lessons of previous interventions in IS it also a difficult

:38:08.:38:09.

issue for the Labour Party specifically considering that it was

:38:10.:38:13.

under Tony Blair's leadership that the Labour Party

:38:14.:38:17.

went to war in Iraq and all Does it make it more difficult for

:38:18.:38:19.

the party to have a clear line I don't think any of the parties

:38:20.:38:25.

have a particularly clear line. If you look at the Conservative

:38:26.:38:29.

Party, there are very senior MPs there who are concerned about it

:38:30.:38:32.

and will probably vote against it, like the chair of the Defence

:38:33.:38:36.

Select Committee, Julian Lewis. There are differences of views

:38:37.:38:40.

in the Labour Party as well. I happen to think it's a matter

:38:41.:38:43.

of conscience. Something like this,

:38:44.:38:45.

it's a matter of individual conscience for individual MPs

:38:46.:38:47.

and we will make our own minds up regardless of what party we are in

:38:48.:38:50.

and who is leading the party. That point you make about

:38:51.:38:54.

down to the individual, the importance of the vote on this,

:38:55.:38:57.

it seems to me to suggest you think there should be a free vote within

:38:58.:39:02.

the Labour Party on that. I would be perfectly happy with

:39:03.:39:05.

a free vote. Clearly, there are great differences

:39:06.:39:09.

between individuals I think a free vote, in my view,

:39:10.:39:11.

would be a good idea. Are you disappointed then

:39:12.:39:17.

when you see your colleagues within the Parliamentary group of

:39:18.:39:20.

Labour MPs, who are making this almost into a larger issue than just

:39:21.:39:24.

Syria itself? It is seen very much now through

:39:25.:39:27.

the lens of, it's an issue of leadership for Jeremy Corbyn.

:39:28.:39:30.

Is that a disappointment to you? I think it is very unfortunate

:39:31.:39:33.

the issues have been conflated. Whether or not we join a war in

:39:34.:39:35.

Syria is a grave and serious issue. To conflate that with internal

:39:36.:39:41.

Labour Party politics by some of my colleagues, maybe by people outside

:39:42.:39:45.

of the Labour Party, I think is trivialising the issue of whether or

:39:46.:39:48.

not we should join a war in Syria and the impact and effact that

:39:49.:39:54.

have, not just on civilians in Syria, but on the

:39:55.:39:57.

risk of a threat here in the UK. Does some of that responsibility

:39:58.:40:02.

lie with Jeremy Corbyn himself? We know there's supposed to be

:40:03.:40:06.

a meeting of Labour MPs to discuss And yet we've already seen

:40:07.:40:09.

from him a letter to MPs and party members saying,

:40:10.:40:14.

I can't support this air strike. It's a problem, to an extent,

:40:15.:40:18.

of his own making. It's no secret that Jeremy

:40:19.:40:22.

is opposed to air strikes. If you'd asked before he even

:40:23.:40:24.

sent the letter people would have Jeremy's has had

:40:25.:40:27.

a long-standing view. But he is a leader

:40:28.:40:30.

and is trying to build a consensus. But also I've been getting letters

:40:31.:40:33.

and e-mails from colleagues So there are a lot of Labour MPs

:40:34.:40:36.

putting forward their views, trying to persuade their colleagues

:40:37.:40:42.

one way or another. Is this the kind

:40:43.:40:45.

of thing that could become a far larger issue for Jeremy Corbyn in

:40:46.:40:49.

terms of splits within the party? If that does happen, how much of

:40:50.:40:52.

a negative impact do you think that will have looking ahead to next

:40:53.:40:56.

May's Assembly elections in Wales? I think the two issues have been

:40:57.:41:00.

conflated, I think we need to separate them and focus needs to be

:41:01.:41:03.

on making the decision about whether That is what we should

:41:04.:41:08.

be concentrating on. The other issues, they can be

:41:09.:41:12.

for another day. The Assembly elections are some way

:41:13.:41:15.

off, clearly we've got to unite as a He's got a clear democratic mandate

:41:16.:41:19.

to lead the party and we need to go out there and persuade people

:41:20.:41:24.

they should vote Labour next year. When you think about the policies

:41:25.:41:28.

of the Welsh Government which have had a greatest direct impact on the

:41:29.:41:35.

pockets of voters here, the tuition In England, students pay around

:41:36.:41:40.

?9,000 a year in tuition fees. In Wales, they pay ?3,500, wherever

:41:41.:41:49.

in the UK they want to study. The Welsh Government picks up

:41:50.:41:53.

the tab for the rest, The policy is very generous to

:41:54.:41:56.

students from Wales but universities They say too much money follows the

:41:57.:42:04.

students out of Wales and into the So, tomorrow,

:42:05.:42:10.

they will call for the current tuition fee grant to be scrapped and

:42:11.:42:15.

replaced by a means tested grant. They say the Welsh Government has

:42:16.:42:20.

a choice, provide a low-cost education for all or invest

:42:21.:42:24.

in high-quality Welsh universities. I spoke with the chair

:42:25.:42:29.

of Universities Wales, the body I think there are

:42:30.:42:32.

a range options here. You could decide to spread

:42:33.:42:38.

the source equally and relatively thinly or you could say, let's focus

:42:39.:42:40.

it on the areas of most need. Those people who come from

:42:41.:42:46.

disadvantaged backgrounds, perhaps. Or areas

:42:47.:42:49.

which need more support such as expensive subjects or areas that

:42:50.:42:52.

are in tune with Welsh Government priorities, such as programmes

:42:53.:42:56.

which support economic development. But, essentially, it would boil down

:42:57.:43:02.

to, a student from a low-income background will still receive

:43:03.:43:07.

the support he or she needs. A well-off student

:43:08.:43:12.

from a well-off family will probably have to find a lot more money to

:43:13.:43:15.

study either in Wales or elsewhere That would depend very much on

:43:16.:43:19.

the outcome of the Diamond review. But means testing would suggest

:43:20.:43:24.

how it is going to happen. Means testing would mean that

:43:25.:43:28.

those students who really need Those who are more able to support

:43:29.:43:32.

themselves would be able to do that. It is a system we have now

:43:33.:43:38.

for maintenance grants. But, equally, with the current

:43:39.:43:43.

tuition free grant the principal the Welsh Government is keen on is of

:43:44.:43:46.

being able to offer it universally, regardless of background, regardless

:43:47.:43:52.

of choice, where want to study. This proposal,

:43:53.:43:55.

what you are suggesting, There is a question

:43:56.:43:57.

of affordability here. Is it actually affordable to offer,

:43:58.:44:02.

as it were, a flat rate tuition fee support to all students of all

:44:03.:44:07.

backgrounds wherever they study? That is the question that

:44:08.:44:13.

needs to be addressed. That is what Sir Ian Diamond

:44:14.:44:15.

is going to be looking at. Not in the sustainable way at

:44:16.:44:18.

the moment because the green paper that has been published now by the

:44:19.:44:22.

UK Government and the universities minister has made it very clear that

:44:23.:44:27.

the teaching excellence framework that is contained within that

:44:28.:44:31.

which will allow English is going to go ahead in some form or

:44:32.:44:34.

other. It is a question of what the details

:44:35.:44:39.

are around that. That would add cost to

:44:40.:44:41.

the tuition fee grant in ways that I think there's a reason why

:44:42.:44:46.

the review panel was set up to look at this system, to ensure it is

:44:47.:44:54.

an affordable system which is fair, that serves the needs of Wales

:44:55.:44:57.

and that supports Welsh students. Yet, I know you don't want to

:44:58.:45:01.

prejudge the outcomes of that panel, that is understandable, but because

:45:02.:45:04.

you say here the choice in future will be either low cost education or

:45:05.:45:07.

investing in high-quality education, should that panel come back and say,

:45:08.:45:13.

the status quo is OK, that is going to be damaging for

:45:14.:45:17.

universities in Wales? There is a range of options

:45:18.:45:20.

between those two poles. Those at the polls on a range

:45:21.:45:25.

of options. You can have something between

:45:26.:45:29.

low-cost and low quality In other words you can have

:45:30.:45:36.

a balance between those things and it is a very complicated set

:45:37.:45:42.

of circumstances this. I imagine that

:45:43.:45:45.

the proposals that eventually come forward to be quite sophisticated,

:45:46.:45:48.

will be quite nuanced and will A union has told this programme that

:45:49.:45:51.

staff at the Office for National Statistics in Newport are

:45:52.:46:01.

anxious that a major UK Government review will lead to jobs leaving

:46:02.:46:07.

south Wales altogether. The former deputy governor

:46:08.:46:09.

of the Bank of England, Sir Charlie Bean, was appointed

:46:10.:46:12.

by the Treasury to look at the way Investment has grown more than twice

:46:13.:46:15.

as fast as consumption, our economy this year is predicted

:46:16.:46:24.

to grow by 2.4%. Today the state accounts for just

:46:25.:46:27.

under 40% of national income and it's forecast to reach 36.5%

:46:28.:46:31.

by the end of the spending review. We were caught in a blizzard of

:46:32.:46:35.

stats this week as the Chancellor Showering us all with fractions,

:46:36.:46:38.

percentages and decimals. It isn't just a comfort people are

:46:39.:46:44.

choosing, it is the look as well. At George Osborne's request

:46:45.:46:51.

that is the question this man Sir Charlie Bean began

:46:52.:46:56.

his review into the production of UK statistics nearly four months ago,

:46:57.:47:00.

and on Wednesday we'll get to read The former deputy governor

:47:01.:47:04.

of the Bank of England says he is trying to ensure the UK's economic

:47:05.:47:10.

statistics are future proofed and suited to the challenges posed

:47:11.:47:13.

by a dynamic economy. As the primary source of UK economic

:47:14.:47:18.

data, Sir Charlie's review will focus on the Office of National

:47:19.:47:22.

Statistics and its Newport base. This is where two thirds of the

:47:23.:47:26.

organisation's staff have been working for the past few years,

:47:27.:47:30.

since the relocation programme was Although, that is a degree

:47:31.:47:33.

of concern here now for the future. We have 2000 people working here

:47:34.:47:39.

at Newport for ONS. 600 working directly

:47:40.:47:45.

on economic statistics. That is what Charlie Bean's

:47:46.:47:48.

review is looking at. We believe we produce high-quality

:47:49.:47:50.

economic statistics, we don't want to see any of our work

:47:51.:47:53.

or jobs moving out of Newport. Do you think that could be

:47:54.:47:57.

a possibility? We welcome any recommendation coming

:47:58.:48:00.

from the Bean review to increase economic expertise in London because

:48:01.:48:04.

they can liaise with Treasury, We would not welcome, and we would

:48:05.:48:09.

strongly oppose, any proposal to In recent times

:48:10.:48:16.

the ONS has been criticised for the quality of its work and some

:48:17.:48:19.

have questioned the decision to take They say the move to Newport saw

:48:20.:48:24.

many experienced statisticians Whilst the relationship

:48:25.:48:30.

between the ONS and institutions like the Treasury and the Bank

:48:31.:48:36.

of England has been weakened by the Sioned Lewis is

:48:37.:48:40.

a research consultant who appreciates the value of data and

:48:41.:48:44.

the importance of getting it right. I've not had cause for concern

:48:45.:48:50.

but there are rumblings about the quality, issues have

:48:51.:48:56.

been raised about errors and so on. Also, at a wider sense, there is

:48:57.:49:00.

the sense that the ONS might not be as innovative as they could be

:49:01.:49:08.

in using all sources available, in There has been a continuous barrage

:49:09.:49:14.

of criticism of the ONS in Newport since it first came and

:49:15.:49:20.

particularly from the establishment of statisticians in London who want

:49:21.:49:24.

everything in the capital city. The ONS has been

:49:25.:49:29.

a brilliant success from the point of jobs, from the point of

:49:30.:49:33.

view of new skills to the area. Sir Charlie Bean has previously

:49:34.:49:37.

suggested he thinks the ONS's performance has deteriorated

:49:38.:49:40.

and the relocation to Newport came at a cost, one that can't be

:49:41.:49:44.

recovered by simply moving Though he will look

:49:45.:49:48.

at the possibility of expanding the London based team

:49:49.:49:52.

he's also said Newport could become Meanwhile,

:49:53.:49:56.

the ONS told us that it welcomed the Bean review as an opportunity

:49:57.:50:03.

to review systems and processes And the organisation looks forward

:50:04.:50:06.

to reading the interim report recommendations

:50:07.:50:11.

when it is published this week. The Welsh Government said the ONS

:50:12.:50:16.

plays a vital role and it is proud the organisation is

:50:17.:50:19.

based in South Wales. We may get a better idea this week

:50:20.:50:23.

what the future could hold for this It's been a big couple of week

:50:24.:50:27.

for Parliament. As well as discussions

:50:28.:50:34.

on air strikes against IS last week, saw the Chancellor outlining

:50:35.:50:37.

his plans for public spending over Well, George Osborne said

:50:38.:50:40.

the block grant of money to be used by the Welsh Government would raise

:50:41.:50:49.

to ?15 billion by 2020. Control of some

:50:50.:50:52.

of the income tax levied here can be devolved to the Welsh Government

:50:53.:50:55.

without a referendum, he said. Mr Osborne also promised that

:50:56.:50:58.

spending per head on devolved services

:50:59.:51:02.

in Wales would not fall below 115% Let's discuss those issues

:51:03.:51:06.

and many others now with the Welsh Government's finance minister,

:51:07.:51:13.

Wales's Chancellor, Jane Hutt. Thank you very much by coming in

:51:14.:51:25.

this morning. I know you've got some concerns about the overall spending

:51:26.:51:30.

block grant coming to Wales. Let's start with a couple of more positive

:51:31.:51:33.

snippets coming out of that statement. The city region for

:51:34.:51:39.

Cardiff, match funding perhaps for that. Is there anything you can tell

:51:40.:51:44.

us about that? The city region for Cardiff isn't it important

:51:45.:51:50.

opportunity, working closely with turn local authorities in south-east

:51:51.:51:54.

Wales. We have said what we would offer and we need to work this. We

:51:55.:51:59.

need to know what the UK Government will offer. Since Glasgow got its

:52:00.:52:05.

city dear, Wales has got to get it steel. It shouldn't just be the

:52:06.:52:10.

Cardiff City Legion. What about Swansea Bay? Huge disappointment

:52:11.:52:15.

about electrification. What about North Wales? That was positive but I

:52:16.:52:21.

have to say let's face it about this spending review announcement on

:52:22.:52:27.

Wednesday, 4.5% cut to our budget. Of times ahead. For all those people

:52:28.:52:33.

who were frightened about what happened with their tax credit, yes,

:52:34.:52:38.

a screeching U-turn but it'll hit them in the Universal Credit.

:52:39.:52:49.

You mentioned a 4.5% cut by 2020 the budget of the most government. It

:52:50.:52:55.

will go up to ?15 billion by 2020 where we account for the UK

:52:56.:52:59.

Government many and the money generated in Wales. If you think

:53:00.:53:04.

that is a 4.5% cut, how many difficult decisions is the Welsh

:53:05.:53:09.

Government going to have to make? Very difficult decisions because as

:53:10.:53:13.

we have said, he gives with one hand and takes to the other. The huge

:53:14.:53:19.

cuts to Whitehall departments, local government in England, 56%, this has

:53:20.:53:24.

to be factored into how we get the consequential is for health and

:53:25.:53:28.

against all the other departments. Very tough times. We have already

:53:29.:53:33.

had an 80% real term cut. Real difficult decisions. This is the

:53:34.:53:39.

late spending review. I have to present a budget in a few days' time

:53:40.:53:43.

which is going to address these issues. Giving you have to work with

:53:44.:53:49.

these that within these constraints, what does it mean for the

:53:50.:53:53.

nonessential services and policies the Welsh Government have

:53:54.:53:59.

introduced? Example, three prescriptions, bus passes and

:54:00.:54:03.

hospital parking. This is mean those kind of policies will have to go out

:54:04.:54:06.

the window because you don't have the money for those kinds of

:54:07.:54:12.

policies? It has always been about priorities. What can we do to

:54:13.:54:17.

mitigate, to safeguard people against cuts. People on low incomes.

:54:18.:54:22.

That has been important to concessionary fares and free

:54:23.:54:25.

prescriptions and stop the priorities have meant I have spent

:54:26.:54:29.

more on health per head and that came out in the figures from the

:54:30.:54:33.

Treasury two weeks ago. I spend more per head, 7% more per head, on

:54:34.:54:39.

Health and Social Care Act. There was Labour government has had to

:54:40.:54:42.

drive its own priorities and a lot of this is about to decisions in a

:54:43.:54:48.

few days' time. So far, you have been able to keep those

:54:49.:54:53.

non-essential policies. Can you give a guarantee those will make it

:54:54.:54:56.

through the next Labour manifesto, for example? I we facing such a

:54:57.:55:02.

difficult economic time in Wales those kind of things can speak

:55:03.:55:06.

Antiguan future? I have managed to balance the budget to make sure we

:55:07.:55:10.

do prioritise those all-important services. We have to look at the

:55:11.:55:16.

detail, such a late spending review, I'm going to present my draft budget

:55:17.:55:20.

on the 8th of December and then we will see how that can pan into our

:55:21.:55:24.

future commitments in our manifesto for next year. This is a time where

:55:25.:55:30.

we need to look to ways in which we can support business and we can also

:55:31.:55:35.

support the most vulnerable and poorest people in our communities.

:55:36.:55:38.

Investing in Health and Social Care Act is vital and we have

:55:39.:55:42.

demonstrated we can do that. But also to our children, young people

:55:43.:55:46.

and business. That is where the challenge comes from the government.

:55:47.:55:53.

One thing that has to be said this government could have come to us

:55:54.:55:56.

with a joint agreement, I am showing you a joint agreement between the HM

:55:57.:56:02.

government and the Welsh Government three years ago about our funding.

:56:03.:56:06.

We still haven't got fair funding. We welcome the fact there is a flaw.

:56:07.:56:11.

We haven't got the detail of the security we know that uptake is

:56:12.:56:16.

forward. A funding floor, for viewers who aren't familiar, it is

:56:17.:56:21.

the minimum spend from the UK Government as will come to Wales

:56:22.:56:26.

which George Osborne has -- set at 115%. For every pound that will be

:56:27.:56:32.

spent in England, one to 50 will be spent in Wales. That is what ifs

:56:33.:56:39.

Gerald Holtham recommended. Everyone in Wales knows what fair funding

:56:40.:56:48.

means. They want to see us in the most government, cross-party of

:56:49.:56:53.

possible, sort this out. We welcome the fact they've come up with a

:56:54.:56:55.

funding floor but they have guaranteed that warranted and 15%.

:56:56.:57:01.

Until I sit down and get an intergovernmental agreement, because

:57:02.:57:05.

at the moment they are saying it is only for this term of Parliament.

:57:06.:57:12.

I'm ready to talk to Ben... Even Carwyn Jones says that to be a

:57:13.:57:15.

short-term measure anyway. Five years seems to address that. In

:57:16.:57:22.

April, it is important we get this device called a Barnett floor. That

:57:23.:57:30.

is according to Carwyn Jones. In Jones, he said, that means the last

:57:31.:57:35.

obstacle for income tax to be decided by the Welsh Government is

:57:36.:57:40.

removed for him. You have got the flooding floor, why aren't you not

:57:41.:57:47.

saying, brilliant' -- funding floor. As I said on the day, we were

:57:48.:57:53.

disappointed that the Chancellor said this is only for this term of

:57:54.:57:58.

Parliament. It is important we sit down, work at the detail. It could

:57:59.:58:03.

be reset for the next Parliament. That means they could get rid of it.

:58:04.:58:08.

We have to output this... The Barnett Formula has been here 1978.

:58:09.:58:14.

We need the permanent funding floor. If we secure that and I am willing

:58:15.:58:18.

to sit down with the UK Government and secure that long-term

:58:19.:58:20.

intergovernmental agreements, I do believe we have made progress in

:58:21.:58:25.

getting fairer funding for Wales. Thank you for coming to less this

:58:26.:58:28.

moniker Don't forget you follow all

:58:29.:58:29.

the latest on Twitter. But for now that's all from me,

:58:30.:58:31.

time to go back to Andrew. officers will be lost?

:58:32.:58:39.

We are going to let that question hang now. Thank you. Andrew.

:58:40.:58:46.

Sadly that is it for today because we have just been told we have been

:58:47.:58:52.

truncated to make way for live coverage of the Davis Cup tennis

:58:53.:58:57.

final here on BBC One. There is always next week!

:58:58.:59:02.

Remember - if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.

:59:03.:59:17.

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