22/11/2015 Sunday Politics Wales


22/11/2015

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Could British war planes be in action over the skies of Syria

:00:37.:00:42.

Later this week, David Cameron set out his strategy

:00:43.:00:46.

George Osborne says all Whitehall departments have agreed to cuts

:00:47.:00:55.

as he gears up for his Spending Review this week.

:00:56.:00:59.

We speak to one of his Conservative predecessors.

:01:00.:01:03.

And it's been a pretty rough week for the Labour Party.

:01:04.:01:07.

Later in the programme: can Jeremy Corbyn steady the ship?

:01:08.:01:13.

Leanne Wood says she's prepared to listen to David Cameron as he makes

:01:14.:01:16.

the case for British air strikes against so-called Islamic State.

:01:17.:01:29.

And with me - as always - the best and the brightest political

:01:30.:01:33.

They pay me to say it, so I am happy to do so.

:01:34.:01:43.

Nick Watt, Helen Lewis and Janan Ganesh - who'll be tweeting

:01:44.:01:45.

Following the terror attacks in Paris, President Hollande has

:01:46.:01:48.

embarked on putting together a Grand Coalition to defeat Islamic State in

:01:49.:01:51.

Syria, involving the UN, America, Russia and, naturally, Britain.

:01:52.:01:54.

The British Government is keen to join but faces the little problem

:01:55.:01:56.

Later this week, David Cameron will present

:01:57.:01:59.

his Syrian strategy to Parliament in the hope it will command a majority

:02:00.:02:03.

Here's what the Chancellor had to say on the Marr Show earlier,

:02:04.:02:10.

This week, we are going to step up our diplomatic efforts,

:02:11.:02:13.

our humanitarian efforts, and make the case for a greater

:02:14.:02:16.

The Prime Minister will seek support across Parliament

:02:17.:02:22.

for strikes against that terrorist organisation in Syria and frankly

:02:23.:02:27.

Britain has never been a country which stands on the sidelines

:02:28.:02:30.

Nick, am I right in thinking that you can see now the makings, the

:02:31.:02:45.

putting together, of majority for the Prime Minister's desire to bomb

:02:46.:02:56.

in Syria? They are being reasonably cautious that they are pretty

:02:57.:03:00.

confident that, even now, they have the numbers. Three big things have

:03:01.:03:03.

happened since three weeks ago when the Prime Minister was indicating he

:03:04.:03:08.

was unlikely to have a vote. Paris has changed everything. Jeremy

:03:09.:03:12.

Corbyn has had a challenging week. Thirdly, the Prime Minister has said

:03:13.:03:16.

he will set out the comprehensive strategy. Labour MPs who said they

:03:17.:03:21.

would like to support him have said they could not do it unless there

:03:22.:03:26.

was a comprehensive strategy. It is also turning Tory MPs can lead by

:03:27.:03:31.

Crispin Blunt, who would have voted against. He is now indicating he

:03:32.:03:36.

possibly will vote for this. DUP, Nigel Dodds, who has eight MPs at

:03:37.:03:41.

Westminster, he is indicating that if the Prime Minister set this

:03:42.:03:46.

out... It looks like the numbers are there. We did here this morning that

:03:47.:03:51.

the BBC reported the DUP with back the Prime Minister if what he had to

:03:52.:03:57.

say was credible. We are told the Tory rebels are about 15 and Labour

:03:58.:04:01.

rebels thinking of voting with the Government or abstaining could be as

:04:02.:04:05.

high as 50. What is your intelligence? A huge number, from

:04:06.:04:12.

very senior people as well. Actually the number of senior people leaving,

:04:13.:04:17.

exiting the Shadow Cabinet, I think a challenging week would be an

:04:18.:04:22.

understatement. It is at a whole new level. There is only so much time

:04:23.:04:28.

you can buy with free votes. Jeremy Corbyn opposes the party policy.

:04:29.:04:32.

This time he would set his own policy but no 1 would come with him.

:04:33.:04:36.

How many times can you play that trick before people say this is a

:04:37.:04:40.

loose conglomeration of individuals and not a party? Do you think he

:04:41.:04:49.

would go for a free vote? Maria Eagle has just published a paper

:04:50.:04:54.

which is very hawkish. Hilary Benn has been making noises about this.

:04:55.:04:59.

Who is there to support, apart from John McDonnell, in this position? He

:05:00.:05:05.

is very isolated on this. The problem for the Prime Minister is,

:05:06.:05:09.

in a sense he gets what he wishes for. We begin joining others in

:05:10.:05:12.

bombing and things do not really changed in Syria. I do not think the

:05:13.:05:19.

House of Commons is the primary obstacle facing David Cameron. I

:05:20.:05:21.

think he will get the votes could not see much because of the case he

:05:22.:05:26.

will make later this week but because what happened in the last

:05:27.:05:33.

week. They focused on all necessary measures and use combat as a

:05:34.:05:37.

metaphor, but a deliberate metaphor, I think. The biggest problem is not

:05:38.:05:41.

the Parliamentary vote for David Cameron, it is the diplomatic

:05:42.:05:43.

struggle to agree with Russia exactly how we go about this. Russia

:05:44.:05:49.

are happy to bomb in Syria against Isil but they are not happy to do so

:05:50.:05:54.

in a way which, in their words, destroys the statehood of Syria

:05:55.:05:57.

which alludes to their traditional support for the existing Syrian

:05:58.:06:04.

state and basher al-Assad. The politics is far more challenging

:06:05.:06:07.

than the technical act of getting the votes together. That is the

:06:08.:06:17.

problem. What is the endgame? Transition can sometimes take a long

:06:18.:06:18.

time. A very long transition. On Wednesday, Chancellor Osborne

:06:19.:06:24.

will announce the Government's Over the next five years, they

:06:25.:06:26.

will total ?4 trillion. But even to stay within that barely

:06:27.:06:30.

imaginable sum of money, Mr Osborne will have to continue to cut

:06:31.:06:33.

departmental and welfare spending. Hence the mantra you will hear this

:06:34.:06:35.

week of "a country that lives within its means" - in other words more of

:06:36.:06:41.

a squeeze on many public services. The Chancellor wants government

:06:42.:06:45.

departments to find a further ?20 billion worth

:06:46.:06:46.

of savings between now and 2020. So, where could that money come

:06:47.:06:51.

from? Welcome to our virtual Treasury

:06:52.:06:54.

courtyard. Now, they don't have one of these

:06:55.:06:59.

in the real courtyard but it represents everything the

:07:00.:07:02.

Government is due to spend this year I'm going to start by highlighting

:07:03.:07:07.

a few of the most significant parts You can see the ?217 billion

:07:08.:07:14.

which goes on Social Security. That includes everything

:07:15.:07:21.

from jobseeker's allowance to There is the ?35 billion

:07:22.:07:25.

the UK is due to spend this year And George Osborne says that's

:07:26.:07:31.

a figure he is determined to bring Now,

:07:32.:07:38.

the focus of his statement is the money which goes on administering

:07:39.:07:42.

and delivering public services. Here it is,

:07:43.:07:45.

and you can see it's just under half We are going to delve into

:07:46.:07:51.

the budgets of a few of the most It is the NHS which accounts

:07:52.:07:56.

for the biggest chunk The Chancellor is not going to find

:07:57.:08:03.

any of his savings here because he has promised to increase

:08:04.:08:09.

NHS funding in England by ?10 The Government's also promised

:08:10.:08:12.

a real terms increase That is part of its commitment to

:08:13.:08:21.

meeting the Nato target of spending The Government is also committed to

:08:22.:08:27.

spending 0.7% of GDP on overseas aid - meaning that

:08:28.:08:36.

budget is also protected. So, the Chancellor is not going to

:08:37.:08:42.

find any of his ?20 billion of savings he says he needs to make

:08:43.:08:45.

from either health, defence or aid. So, where could it come from

:08:46.:08:51.

instead? What about

:08:52.:08:52.

from the education budget? That is a big part of what the

:08:53.:08:56.

state spends on public services. Here

:08:57.:09:00.

the Conservatives have promised a That means savings

:09:01.:09:01.

from here will be limited. Although the rest of the budget does

:09:02.:09:08.

not have any guaranteed protection. Here is the money that goes

:09:09.:09:13.

to English local authorities. This was one of the first

:09:14.:09:17.

departments to agree to big savings Let's look at the Home Office whose

:09:18.:09:20.

budget this year is ?10.6 billion. The single biggest thing

:09:21.:09:29.

Theresa May's department spends money on is the grant it gives to

:09:30.:09:32.

police forces in England and Wales. Although they also get some of their

:09:33.:09:37.

money from other sources including And some of the other departments

:09:38.:09:40.

which are going to have to find big savings over the next four years are

:09:41.:09:47.

the departments of business, But let's go back to that big part

:09:48.:09:57.

of government spending I mentioned Because

:09:58.:10:04.

of course that is where a lot of the focus has been in the weeks

:10:05.:10:07.

and months before this statement. Again here there is plenty

:10:08.:10:10.

the Chancellor will not touch. The state pension is

:10:11.:10:13.

a massive part of the budget. But the Government has

:10:14.:10:16.

a long-standing promise not to cut it along with various pensioner

:10:17.:10:19.

benefits. The other areas of big spending

:10:20.:10:23.

the Government has had to look to are housing benefit, disability

:10:24.:10:27.

benefits and incapacity benefits. And, you can see that big sum

:10:28.:10:35.

of money, ?30 billion, which is due to be spent

:10:36.:10:37.

on personal tax credits this year. An area where the Chancellor has

:10:38.:10:40.

found that making savings can So, the Chancellor faces some tricky

:10:41.:10:43.

trade-offs on Wednesday when he unveils his spending plans

:10:44.:10:49.

for the next five years. Paul Johnson from the Institute

:10:50.:10:52.

of Fiscal Studies has some ideas. Paul, welcome back to the programme.

:10:53.:11:07.

Let's start with this tricky question of tax credits. What is the

:11:08.:11:11.

Chancellor, in your view, most likely to do? He has two big

:11:12.:11:18.

choices. He can decide not to make any cuts, or much in the wake of

:11:19.:11:23.

cuts, next April. That is what all of the bus has been about, the cuts

:11:24.:11:28.

that will come in next April. -- the fuss. Most of the savings will come

:11:29.:11:33.

in the long run full he has also announced the new universal credit

:11:34.:11:40.

system will be much less generous than he was originally intending. In

:11:41.:11:44.

five or ten years time, even if he does not put the cut scene he was

:11:45.:11:47.

planning in April, he will still make much the same level of saving

:11:48.:11:52.

for them if he does that, his spending in 2016 on welfare benefits

:11:53.:11:55.

will be ?4 billion or so higher than he was planning and he will bust his

:11:56.:12:00.

own welfare cap, the cap he has legislated, which assumes he will

:12:01.:12:05.

make those savings. That is one option. The other option is he will

:12:06.:12:13.

try to find some savings in 2016, maybe reduce the cuts to tax credits

:12:14.:12:16.

that have some savings and look elsewhere in the welfare budget to

:12:17.:12:22.

make up the rest of the savings. Whatever he does on tax credits will

:12:23.:12:27.

cost money, certainly in the short run. His deficit reduction plan for

:12:28.:12:30.

the ship is already in some trouble. He faces huge pressures to

:12:31.:12:36.

spend more on everything from health to Social Security. -- for this year

:12:37.:12:43.

is already in some trouble. The first thing to say about that

:12:44.:12:46.

surplus in 2020, there is a huge amount of uncertainty about where we

:12:47.:12:50.

will be. Forecasting these things by view ad is an extreme you tricky and

:12:51.:12:56.

uncertain business. Ignoring that, assuming the whole world moves as he

:12:57.:13:00.

expects over the next few years, he will require cuts of about 25% in

:13:01.:13:05.

those unprotected apartments we have just heard about the Home Office,

:13:06.:13:09.

local government, and so on, on top of the cuts that happened during the

:13:10.:13:15.

last parliament will Boyd -- involve really sharp cuts between 2010 and

:13:16.:13:21.

2020. They are big changes to the way which we will deliver local

:13:22.:13:24.

Gottman and the way we will be delivering police force, the way we

:13:25.:13:29.

will be delivering further education and so on. Those areas of government

:13:30.:13:33.

will change fundamentally over the decade. Let me get these right. When

:13:34.:13:39.

you add up all the cuts, those made in those about to happen, between

:13:40.:13:43.

20102020, major departments, the unprotected ones, will face cuts of

:13:44.:13:55.

up to 40%. -- between 2010-2020. Is it doable? That is a good question.

:13:56.:14:00.

It may not turn up that badly if the economy does better than expected

:14:01.:14:04.

all the Chancellor finds some additional savings in Social

:14:05.:14:08.

Security, or he does not aim for the 10 million surplus and goes for a 1

:14:09.:14:14.

billion surplus. -- 10 billion. If he does go down that route, it will

:14:15.:14:20.

be more difficult than it was in the last parliament. If there were easy

:14:21.:14:25.

cuts to have made, they will have been made already. Do not forget one

:14:26.:14:29.

of the biggest bits of public spending goes on the pay of people

:14:30.:14:34.

who work in the public sector, the pay of nurses, teachers and civil

:14:35.:14:37.

servants and so on. That was quite easy to hold down over the last

:14:38.:14:42.

parliament. Pay in the private sector was doing so badly. We

:14:43.:14:47.

expect, almost economists now expect that pay in the private sector will

:14:48.:14:51.

rise well to be strongly. In that world it will be quite hard to hold

:14:52.:14:59.

down pay right across the public sector, as he said he would do back

:15:00.:15:00.

in the July budget. Joining me now Nigel Lawson,

:15:01.:15:02.

Margaret Thatcher's longest serving Welcome back to the programme. Thank

:15:03.:15:12.

you, I enjoyed your rant the other day. It was not a rant, it was a

:15:13.:15:16.

carefully scripted commentary but thank you for your remarks. Let me

:15:17.:15:21.

take an overall review on the Chancellor 's position. The

:15:22.:15:26.

borrowing figures for October were pretty bad, looks like he will

:15:27.:15:34.

overshoot this year 's borrowing. Is the austerity programme in trouble

:15:35.:15:39.

again? It is difficult, he has a difficult time because of these

:15:40.:15:45.

ridiculous protected programmes which should not exist. Aid is going

:15:46.:15:50.

up again and again, the Nobel Prize for economics has been given to an

:15:51.:15:56.

English economist, he is Scottish in fact, and one of his principal

:15:57.:16:02.

findings, he is a great expert on global poverty and one of his major

:16:03.:16:07.

findings is that overseas aid although well-intentioned does more

:16:08.:16:10.

harm than good. Yet that is going up and up. He has got a tough time but

:16:11.:16:18.

it can be done. When I was Chancellor I was able to balance the

:16:19.:16:22.

budget and get it into surplus and he has to do it as well. He has huge

:16:23.:16:30.

pressure on security, the police, the NHS, we were just talking about

:16:31.:16:35.

mitigating cuts on the tax credit side, these are all hard to resist

:16:36.:16:39.

in the current atmosphere. It is going to be very difficult and

:16:40.:16:45.

although I suspect it will mainly be cuts in savings in public spending I

:16:46.:16:49.

think he will have to do more on the tax side than he would have liked.

:16:50.:16:53.

There is some logic in that, for example it looks as if, Paul Johnson

:16:54.:16:59.

was seeing, or maybe it was you, but he is likely to some extent to defer

:17:00.:17:05.

the cutting of the tax credits. It's quite right to take a knife to the

:17:06.:17:10.

tax credits, they have grown far too much and are undesirable in their

:17:11.:17:14.

present size. But nonetheless what he did propose originally was a bit

:17:15.:17:18.

too much for some and therefore he has got to delay it a bit. But when

:17:19.:17:25.

he presented, he presented a package including raising income tax

:17:26.:17:29.

threshold. He could, as part of the package delay that a little bit and

:17:30.:17:35.

help on the tax side. The government has always said it will do all the

:17:36.:17:39.

heavy lifting, the heavy lifting will be done by cuts in spending

:17:40.:17:44.

rather than increasing taxes. Will he now have to look at increasing

:17:45.:17:49.

some taxes are hats at a time of low oil prices on fuel duty? I think

:17:50.:17:53.

that's a good suggestion and it is sensible to do that. But defer a

:17:54.:18:01.

reduction which he might find less... Yes but might he have to

:18:02.:18:07.

look at some tax rises? I think you should look at the fuel duty, yes.

:18:08.:18:13.

President Hollande has said that national security comes before

:18:14.:18:19.

deficit reduction, he has sidelined the fiscal pact he has with the rest

:18:20.:18:25.

of Europe. He plans a huge increase in security spending, 17,000 more

:18:26.:18:29.

police and border guards and other security personnel. Will the British

:18:30.:18:33.

be looking at George Osborne to do something similar next week?

:18:34.:18:37.

President Hollande has never been keen on deficit-reduction in the

:18:38.:18:41.

first place. It's not unconnected with the fact as well that the

:18:42.:18:45.

French economy, and I live in France, the French economy is in a

:18:46.:18:52.

bad way. We are doing much better. Security is important but the

:18:53.:18:55.

government has said very clearly that it is going to be keeping to

:18:56.:19:03.

the 2% target, 2% of GDP on defence spending, something France is not

:19:04.:19:06.

doing even though it has considerable defence expenditure.

:19:07.:19:12.

The leaked letter from one of the most senior police officers to the

:19:13.:19:16.

Home Secretary says cuts to police budgets could reduce very

:19:17.:19:19.

significantly the ability to respond to a Paris style attack. The

:19:20.:19:24.

Chancellor is going to be under pressure to make security more

:19:25.:19:29.

important than deficit-reduction. Certainly for the foreseeable

:19:30.:19:34.

future. Security is essential. It is vital. But I think the police are

:19:35.:19:38.

complaining a little bit too much. Look how much the police are

:19:39.:19:44.

spending now on chasing up often unsubstantiated accusations of

:19:45.:19:50.

historic sex abuse. That has got nothing to do with security. Those

:19:51.:19:54.

resources should be put where they need is. I think also what the

:19:55.:19:59.

police need is not just money, and the security services to, they need

:20:00.:20:03.

intelligence. I think it would make a lot of sense and what I would like

:20:04.:20:06.

to see the government doing is to expedite the passage of the

:20:07.:20:14.

investigatory Powers Bill which is long overdue and badly needed. In

:20:15.:20:19.

this climate you accept that cutting the top rate of income tax back to

:20:20.:20:25.

the 40% that you originally introduced, that that is politically

:20:26.:20:29.

impossible for the foreseeable future? It depends how far you can

:20:30.:20:34.

proceed. I would hope that during this parliament it can be done. It

:20:35.:20:38.

is politically difficult but there is no budgetary reason against it.

:20:39.:20:43.

When I cut it it increased revenue and it would do so again. The cap

:20:44.:20:48.

which George Osborne has already done in the last parliament from 50,

:20:49.:20:52.

245 even though the Liberal Democrats he did it and it raised

:20:53.:21:00.

money and didn't cost anything. To be cutting police numbers, to be

:21:01.:21:04.

struggling to find money for the NHS, to be doing something for the

:21:05.:21:09.

working poor on tax credits, making life a bit more difficult for them

:21:10.:21:13.

but then to be cutting the top rate of the highest earners? That is why

:21:14.:21:18.

I don't think you can be doing it now that you were asking about the

:21:19.:21:22.

foreseeable future. You still think he can do it before the end of this

:21:23.:21:29.

Parliament? Yes I do. On Europe, how confident are you feeling about

:21:30.:21:35.

winning the referendum to withdraw? Nobody can call a referendum. It is

:21:36.:21:40.

difficult enough sometimes to call a general election and referendums are

:21:41.:21:44.

even harder to call. Logically I don't think he will do it. Logically

:21:45.:21:49.

David Cameron ought to be campaigning to leave because what he

:21:50.:21:56.

said at the beginning was he was dissatisfied with the European Union

:21:57.:22:03.

as it is. He wanted a fundamental reform to be enshrined in treaty

:22:04.:22:09.

change. Then stay in a reformed European Union. There is not going

:22:10.:22:13.

to be a reformed European Union. There will not be a treaty change.

:22:14.:22:17.

What the referendum is going to be about is if you want to stay in or

:22:18.:22:22.

leave and an reform European Union. So logically he ought to say leave

:22:23.:22:27.

and that is where I am because if it is an reform we don't want to stay

:22:28.:22:32.

in it. So even if the primer Mr was to get all his renegotiation demands

:22:33.:22:35.

such as we know them it would not change your mind on coming out? No,

:22:36.:22:50.

if he demanded a lot more and got it, major reforms which I have

:22:51.:22:52.

written about but I don't have time to go into no, I think it would be

:22:53.:22:57.

welcomed right across the European Union. This is not the view of the

:22:58.:23:04.

majority of the people, but we cannot tell the rest of the

:23:05.:23:06.

countries what to do, all we can say is what we are going to do. As we

:23:07.:23:11.

get closer to the referendum date, we don't know when it will be but

:23:12.:23:16.

when we get closer to it being announced, in terms of who seem to

:23:17.:23:20.

be the major figure who leads your side of the referendum campaign, if

:23:21.:23:25.

not Nigel Farage, who? Certainly not Nigel Farage. I think the people who

:23:26.:23:37.

want to stay in have put up a businessman. Stewart draws. Not a

:23:38.:23:40.

particularly captivating businessman. Who will be the

:23:41.:23:48.

equivalent? I have no idea, but we will wait and see but it certainly

:23:49.:23:54.

won't be Nigel Farage. He will be an important player. Why not? Because

:23:55.:24:00.

Ukip has just one member of Parliament. We are a parliamentary

:24:01.:24:06.

democracy and the majority party is the Conservative Party. Nigel

:24:07.:24:10.

Lawson, thank you for being with us. Thank you.

:24:11.:24:12.

It's been a pretty torrid week for the Labour Party.

:24:13.:24:15.

Splits on everything from how to deal with terrorists to

:24:16.:24:17.

Trident, to Ken Livingstone, culminating in a bizarre row

:24:18.:24:20.

about whether or not the Shadow Chancellor wants to scrap MI5.

:24:21.:24:22.

John McDonnell insists Britain's spies are safe in his hands,

:24:23.:24:25.

though he did admit that his party has had a "rough week".

:24:26.:24:27.

It is the week that Jeremy Corbyn and his party grappled with issues

:24:28.:24:34.

In the wake of the Paris attacks, the Labour leader said he was not

:24:35.:24:40.

happy with the idea of police officers shooting to kill

:24:41.:24:44.

on British streets, which led to a very stormy party meeting,

:24:45.:24:46.

So, you tweeted, "please tell me it is not true that Jeremy just said,

:24:47.:24:56.

faced with Kalashnikov-wielding genocidal fascists, our security

:24:57.:24:58.

I, along with millions of Labour voters

:24:59.:25:06.

in this country, were very concerned by the interview that Jeremy gave.

:25:07.:25:09.

Thankfully, Hilary Benn, the Shadow Foreign Secretary, clarified matters

:25:10.:25:14.

very quickly and restated support for the use of lethal force and,

:25:15.:25:17.

support of the use of drone strikes, which Jeremy had also questioned.

:25:18.:25:23.

Jeremy himself, thankfully, a few hours later,

:25:24.:25:25.

also issued a clarification, and I'm very pleased he did.

:25:26.:25:27.

A lot of Labour voters will have been very relieved.

:25:28.:25:31.

Then came a row about the former Mayor of London, Ken Livingstone,

:25:32.:25:38.

being appointed to co-chair the party's review of Trident, and

:25:39.:25:41.

the emergence of a letter from a campaign group calling for MI5 to be

:25:42.:25:44.

disbanded that the Shadow Chancellor, John McDonnell, seems

:25:45.:25:46.

And we found something else interesting that John

:25:47.:25:50.

This Parliamentary motion he proposed last October saying

:25:51.:25:57.

taxpayers who do not like war should be able to opt out

:25:58.:26:00.

The military is where the next battle may lie.

:26:01.:26:05.

If and when the Government brings forward

:26:06.:26:11.

plans to extend British air strikes from Iraq to Syria, some Labour MPs

:26:12.:26:14.

want to vote in favour, while their leader is a committed

:26:15.:26:17.

One Labour figure is speaking out for the first time.

:26:18.:26:23.

I think it would be wrong to suggest there is a settled view on the

:26:24.:26:27.

People will bring their own prejudices,

:26:28.:26:31.

which are from being instinctively for intervention, to having long

:26:32.:26:33.

The only thing I would ask of all of my colleagues is we look

:26:34.:26:39.

at this with an open mind, examining the facts rather than

:26:40.:26:45.

seeing how it matches our prejudices, and then reach a

:26:46.:26:53.

decision which is in the national interest.

:26:54.:26:55.

Do you think Jeremy Corbyn is able to do that?

:26:56.:26:57.

He has some very strongly held views that we should not get involved

:26:58.:27:00.

He may have to come to a point where he says,

:27:01.:27:05.

now that I'm not just a backbencher, I am actually the Leader of

:27:06.:27:08.

There is an element of national interest and that is

:27:09.:27:12.

For the young Corbynites at this event about Labour's economic policy

:27:13.:27:16.

The only reason we look bad to the general public, the only reason

:27:17.:27:23.

we do not look very strong at the moment, is that we are not united.

:27:24.:27:28.

If you have criticisms with the Leader, you should take it up

:27:29.:27:31.

It is not fitting to do these things in the press, criticising people.

:27:32.:27:35.

Do you think there is a plot against Jeremy Corbyn?

:27:36.:27:38.

If they are planning a plot they should probably think

:27:39.:27:46.

about the fact Jeremy was elected with 59.5% of the vote, I think.

:27:47.:27:49.

And we saw, from the beginning, he went

:27:50.:27:56.

from the least likely person to get in to the front runner, to the

:27:57.:27:59.

If people are plotting to get rid of him, they really should listen

:28:00.:28:04.

The party should be based around what the party members want.

:28:05.:28:07.

Unfortunately for them there will be another flash point

:28:08.:28:09.

On Tuesday there will be a vote in the House of Commons on Trident,

:28:10.:28:14.

Labour MPs have been instructed not to turn up.

:28:15.:28:19.

We understand a bunch of them, including some big names,

:28:20.:28:22.

are thinking about defying their Leader and voting

:28:23.:28:24.

It would be a largely symbolic vote but another visible symbol of

:28:25.:28:32.

I'm joined now from Doncaster by the Labour MP Caroline Flint -

:28:33.:28:40.

she was a minister under Tony Blair and Gordon Brown.

:28:41.:28:46.

Good morning, thank you for coming back on the programme. Let me begin

:28:47.:28:53.

with a general question, it's been a pretty terrible week for Labour,

:28:54.:28:57.

what is the mood now on the Labour backbenches among your colleagues?

:28:58.:29:03.

It's not been a great week for Labour, that is correct. I think

:29:04.:29:07.

part of the reason for that is we haven't looked certain and confident

:29:08.:29:12.

on some of the big issues the nation are worried about. What we have to

:29:13.:29:17.

have from the leadership, not just Jeremy but those around him, is

:29:18.:29:22.

certainty about what we think about what is happening in terms of the

:29:23.:29:28.

terrorist acts in Paris. But more widely about what the certainty we

:29:29.:29:32.

can offer as Labour Party about how we will support our national

:29:33.:29:37.

security. I think understandably there have been concerns, I don't

:29:38.:29:41.

think just on the backbenches of the Labour Party, but also amongst the

:29:42.:29:46.

Shadow Cabinet, that is clear, but also more widely amongst the party

:29:47.:29:51.

membership as well. The news has been dominated for a week now by

:29:52.:29:57.

these terrible events in Paris. Has Jeremy Corbyn mishandled the Labour

:29:58.:30:03.

response to these events? I think what is really important is that

:30:04.:30:11.

with leadership does come a massive responsibility to speak clearly and

:30:12.:30:14.

with certainty about a whole number of issues. But probably more than

:30:15.:30:19.

any other subject area if you like national security demands that.

:30:20.:30:23.

Because at a time where we are all reeling from what has happened in

:30:24.:30:26.

Paris, and there is no doubt Jeremy Corbyn takes very, very seriously

:30:27.:30:30.

what has happened there and its implication for the security of

:30:31.:30:36.

British people as well and others around the world. The question of

:30:37.:30:40.

allowing our pleas through the legal framework which already exists to

:30:41.:30:43.

take action when they are presented with a terrorist in front of them

:30:44.:30:47.

but also on some of the other matters about how we should move

:30:48.:30:51.

forward in a united way with other countries to tackle Isil, I think

:30:52.:30:55.

that certainty has been wanting and not helped, I have to say, when

:30:56.:31:00.

other members of the Shadow Cabinet cannot speak with one voice about

:31:01.:31:04.

what the leader wants to do. I hope out of this week we will see some

:31:05.:31:09.

clarity and certainty coming forward and I think we already know, and I

:31:10.:31:14.

have heard more this morning, that David Cameron will come back to the

:31:15.:31:18.

House of Commons this week. We do need a plan, it can't just be about

:31:19.:31:22.

military action, it has to be more than that and I hope we can be in a

:31:23.:31:26.

position to opportunity going forward to tackle the threat of Isil

:31:27.:31:30.

which is the most major threat to security around the world that we

:31:31.:31:31.

have at the moment. If Mr Cameron comes form with that

:31:32.:31:42.

dashes forward with that kind of plan, would you back military action

:31:43.:31:48.

in Syria? I believe there can be a case former literary action in

:31:49.:31:55.

Syria. We are facing the most profoundly barbaric group of

:31:56.:31:58.

terrorists I think I have ever realised in my lifetime or thought

:31:59.:32:04.

about. -- military action. Also the most resourced group of terrorists

:32:05.:32:10.

in the world. It is a different situation to what we faced a few

:32:11.:32:14.

years ago where I voted against military action when Cameron came

:32:15.:32:20.

back to Parliament to deal with Assad. We have in this country and

:32:21.:32:25.

this region, a number of dangerous groups. There are a number of --

:32:26.:32:33.

there is a hierarchy of dangerous groups and Isil is the top of that

:32:34.:32:41.

list. If it can be about, yes, what sort of military action should take

:32:42.:32:45.

place, maybe the air strikes... Like we are doing in Iraq, within that a

:32:46.:32:51.

wider plan as to how we will deal with civil war in Syria and what

:32:52.:32:55.

else we need to do going forward. That is something I feel I could

:32:56.:33:01.

support. You say there is no doubt that the Labour leadership takes

:33:02.:33:05.

these matters seriously. Can I point out, just before the election this

:33:06.:33:11.

year, the Shadow Chancellor penned his name to a document supporting

:33:12.:33:17.

the abolition of MI5 and disarming the police? Last year he supported

:33:18.:33:21.

people opting out of having their taxes fund any kind of military

:33:22.:33:26.

activity. I do not think... I suspect a lot of people will not

:33:27.:33:30.

think that is taking these issues very seriously. Is Mr McConnell fit

:33:31.:33:36.

to hold the second most important position within the Shadow Cabinet?

:33:37.:33:42.

One of the aspects of the leadership campaign over the summer was a sense

:33:43.:33:46.

that Jeremy was authentic and very clear about his views. And, you

:33:47.:33:52.

know, they may not be shared with everybody, I may have some different

:33:53.:33:58.

views to Jeremy on that. Part of his appeal was the authenticity, that it

:33:59.:34:04.

did not have any spin. He said he did not realise what he do when he

:34:05.:34:09.

held that the letter and seemed to support it. We had a leadership

:34:10.:34:15.

election. There was a massive surge in our membership and Jeremy had an

:34:16.:34:21.

overwhelming mandate. Maybe, you know, Jeremy and John McDonnell,

:34:22.:34:25.

have earned the right within that to put forward their views. What is

:34:26.:34:29.

clear to me, I am a moderate politician, but I am also a

:34:30.:34:34.

conviction politician. I do not say one thing to one group of people and

:34:35.:34:38.

another to another group of people. If the leadership believes in these

:34:39.:34:42.

things, they should say that and the biggest test is then to let the

:34:43.:34:45.

British people determine whether they agree with them or not. I think

:34:46.:34:53.

clarity, authenticity and honesty, they are all very important and that

:34:54.:34:57.

is how you create trust. The last election, at the end, it was clear

:34:58.:35:01.

your party had a problem over the issue of economic security. When Mr

:35:02.:35:08.

Corbyn has said about not shooting terrorists and his reservations

:35:09.:35:13.

about killing jihadi John, is not a danger, as some polls suggest this

:35:14.:35:17.

morning, though it is not a danger, as some polls suggest this morning,

:35:18.:35:24.

voters are national security and not just economic security? When it

:35:25.:35:28.

comes to leadership, as you know, you may have your own view is that

:35:29.:35:32.

you had before but you have to be open to actually other views as

:35:33.:35:36.

well. That is why we're having this debate within the Parliamentary

:35:37.:35:42.

Labour Party as to how we get a position regarding what we do next

:35:43.:35:48.

in Syria. Jeremy has an overwhelming mandate. With that comes a

:35:49.:35:51.

responsibility leadership which shows the ideas he puts forward and

:35:52.:35:55.

answers to these really difficult questions, whether on the economy

:35:56.:35:59.

national security, can also reach out beyond the Parliamentary Labour

:36:00.:36:04.

Party and to that matter the Labour Party. Part of that is winning

:36:05.:36:12.

People's trust to back you. That is the task, not just the Jeremy but

:36:13.:36:16.

any leader of the leather party. He needs to show he can do that. I

:36:17.:36:22.

think he wants to do that. -- the Labour Party. They have said this

:36:23.:36:25.

morning they will have a full discussion in the Shadow Cabinet and

:36:26.:36:29.

there will be discussions within the Parliamentary Labour Party as well.

:36:30.:36:34.

Leadership does require a wider reach and responsibility beyond

:36:35.:36:38.

boundaries. Are you surprised that in so many personal appointments,

:36:39.:36:44.

John McDonnell, Ken Livingstone now on defence, Mr Corbyn seems to have

:36:45.:36:50.

made no effort to reach out to the centre of your party, much less the

:36:51.:36:57.

right of it? Well, all party leaders, I have to say, and I have

:36:58.:37:02.

seen a few, do tend to sometimes surround themselves not only with

:37:03.:37:05.

elected politicians but the paid staff who are part of their group.

:37:06.:37:11.

For any party leader, whoever they point, they have to show they will

:37:12.:37:16.

work in a way that is not just fashioned by their own particular

:37:17.:37:19.

background and experience and maybe their own point of view. There is a

:37:20.:37:23.

wider responsibility here. The Labour Party is not a pressure

:37:24.:37:29.

group. We exist to win elections in order to put our platform into

:37:30.:37:34.

practice in government. Therefore, the people around Jeremy, who have

:37:35.:37:39.

been appointed, they have to demonstrate they understand the

:37:40.:37:42.

responsibilities of that, responsibilities to the wider Labour

:37:43.:37:45.

Party. Some people within it he may not agree with him on everything but

:37:46.:37:51.

at heart we all want to win the next election. Importantly, 400,000

:37:52.:37:55.

people took part in the leadership election. That is amazing. We have

:37:56.:38:00.

had a ground swell of people join the party and many of them want to

:38:01.:38:10.

be active in a very positive way. I welcome mat. We have to convince

:38:11.:38:12.

millions of people to support us in the next election and in all the

:38:13.:38:17.

elections up to 2020. Final question to you, if Mr Corbyn continues the

:38:18.:38:22.

way he has begun, will he be leading your party into the 2020 election?

:38:23.:38:30.

Does he have any chance of winning? Look, we have had, seven, eight,

:38:31.:38:35.

nine weeks since the leadership election. It has been rocky along

:38:36.:38:39.

the way. We have made significant impact when it came to the debate

:38:40.:38:42.

around tax credits for working people. Will he lead your party into

:38:43.:38:49.

the next election? What Jeremy has to do now is focused on how he leads

:38:50.:38:55.

our party right now. That will determine our fortunes in the weeks,

:38:56.:39:01.

months and also in 2020. Thank you for joining us.

:39:02.:39:03.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now

:39:04.:39:08.

Hello and welcome to the Sunday Politics Wales.

:39:09.:39:19.

Plaid Cymru leader Leanne Wood says she's prepared to listen to

:39:20.:39:23.

David Cameron as he makes the case for British air strikes

:39:24.:39:26.

Former counter-terrorism minister Kim Howells questions whether

:39:27.:39:31.

the Muslim community here should do more to tackle Islamic extremism.

:39:32.:39:35.

And what will the Chancellor's Spending Review mean for Wales?

:39:36.:39:40.

If we believe what we read in the newspapers today,

:39:41.:39:43.

David Cameron wants the UK to be part of bombing raids

:39:44.:39:46.

against the so-called Islamic State in Syria in the next fortnight.

:39:47.:39:50.

To do that, of course, he needs the backing of the House

:39:51.:39:53.

of Commons, so the Prime Minister will begin renewed efforts to

:39:54.:39:56.

Tomorrow he'll meet France's President Hollande for talks

:39:57.:40:02.

on counter-terrorism co-operation and the fight against IS.

:40:03.:40:06.

It comes as the leader of Plaid Cymru has told BBC Wales that

:40:07.:40:09.

she's prepared to listen to the Prime Minister as he makes the case

:40:10.:40:13.

But Leanne Wood says Mr Cameron would need to convince her party.

:40:14.:40:19.

Events of the past week have brought the problems of the Middle East

:40:20.:40:38.

into much sharper focus and much closer to home.

:40:39.:40:41.

what do we do about so-called Islamic State?

:40:42.:40:46.

France, the United States and Russia are already hitting them, but the

:40:47.:40:50.

Prime Minister won't try for another vote to allow British air strikes

:40:51.:40:54.

against them in Syria until he is confident he has enough support.

:40:55.:40:58.

But even a party opposed to the Iraq war back in 2003

:40:59.:41:02.

is willing to at least lend him their ears.

:41:03.:41:05.

To date we have not been convinced of the case but, of course,

:41:06.:41:09.

we are prepared to listen to what the Prime Minister has to say

:41:10.:41:14.

and we will listen very carefully to his proposals.

:41:15.:41:18.

But I think there would need to be a number of tests met

:41:19.:41:22.

before we were convinced that we were not about to make the same

:41:23.:41:26.

when the UK government was involved in the invasion of Iraq.

:41:27.:41:34.

What would convince you to back air strikes in Syria?

:41:35.:41:37.

It is very difficult to discuss hypotheticals but, clearly,

:41:38.:41:41.

the sanction of the UN would be something that would be something

:41:42.:41:46.

that would be important to us, but that is not the only thing.

:41:47.:41:51.

What we would need to see was some sort of plan to make sure

:41:52.:41:55.

I would like to be satisfied, for example, that there was some

:41:56.:42:03.

sort of definition as to what success would look like,

:42:04.:42:06.

These are the things that were failed to be looked at ahead

:42:07.:42:13.

of the invasion of Iraq and look at the mess that was created

:42:14.:42:17.

as a result of making those mistakes.

:42:18.:42:20.

Kim Howells was the counter-terrorism minister

:42:21.:42:23.

under the Westminster Labour government.

:42:24.:42:25.

Away from politics, art has long been his passion,

:42:26.:42:28.

and he has begun to commit to canvass his own experiences

:42:29.:42:31.

of being in Afghanistan to see Western action first-hand.

:42:32.:42:34.

But he thinks British overseas action might be a thing of the past.

:42:35.:42:38.

I think the government is probably very worried that it is now seen

:42:39.:42:42.

by the Americans, for example, as being a bit insignificant.

:42:43.:42:46.

Britain has turned in on itself since the invasion of Iraq in 2003.

:42:47.:42:53.

I think people are very wary about getting involved

:42:54.:43:00.

in other people's wars, wherever it is in the world.

:43:01.:43:06.

Maybe that is a fundamental change in the nature of British society.

:43:07.:43:12.

Maybe we never will get involved in wars again.

:43:13.:43:17.

There was a time when Wales felt somewhat removed

:43:18.:43:20.

from the threat of global terrorism but, given what happened

:43:21.:43:23.

at the Stade de France, there are potential targets on our doorstep.

:43:24.:43:27.

There is talk of the Millennium Stadium banning bags,

:43:28.:43:30.

and all just a stone's throw from the part of Cardiff

:43:31.:43:34.

which several young men left for Syria.

:43:35.:43:37.

Riyadh Khan was killed in an RAF drone strike earlier this year.

:43:38.:43:40.

The question now, what can be done here to stop future Riyadh Khans?

:43:41.:43:45.

I'm afraid the response to atrocity after atrocity

:43:46.:43:50.

What sort of thing would you like to see?

:43:51.:43:55.

I have not seen thousands of British Muslims out on the streets

:43:56.:43:59.

and demonstrating solidarity with people who have been murdered.

:44:00.:44:08.

I think communities have got to wake up.

:44:09.:44:12.

All of us have a responsibility to try and understand this phenomenon,

:44:13.:44:21.

But that includes Muslim societies in this country.

:44:22.:44:30.

they would strongly argue they are more than doing their bit.

:44:31.:44:36.

The Dar Ul-Isra Centre has a long-established open-door policy.

:44:37.:44:41.

Not for the first time, Muslim and non-Muslim children

:44:42.:44:44.

have this week been finding out about the true meaning of Islam.

:44:45.:44:48.

Politicians have already spoken for years of an anti-Muslim backlash

:44:49.:44:53.

and with talk of 'shoot to kill' if the UK were to be attacked,

:44:54.:44:56.

with suspicion high, many Muslims feel vulnerable.

:44:57.:45:00.

and we can look back at the case of Charles de Menezes,

:45:01.:45:06.

if they make a judgement not based on clear intelligence

:45:07.:45:10.

but maybe their prejudices of what a suspicious individual looks like,

:45:11.:45:15.

very often they are falling back on stereotypes.

:45:16.:45:18.

A Muslim with a headscarf, a Muslim with a beard, and if

:45:19.:45:22.

decisions are made on that basis, increasingly we are going to have,

:45:23.:45:27.

we might have some sad, fatal incident.

:45:28.:45:30.

I think Muslims are conscious that they are very much

:45:31.:45:34.

Only recently, someone like Nigel Farage said Muslims

:45:35.:45:40.

For Muslims, they are British, they have chosen their home,

:45:41.:45:44.

and they are as British as can be, but constantly being questioned

:45:45.:45:48.

about your loyalties is not comfortable

:45:49.:45:50.

and often when we are talking about law enforcement,

:45:51.:45:54.

it feels like you are in the firing line.

:45:55.:45:57.

I think politicians can start talking differently about British

:45:58.:46:02.

Muslims, talking about them not as a suspect community, not as someone

:46:03.:46:06.

who has to take care of extremism when no-one else has, but as part of

:46:07.:46:10.

the British public, part of the wider British fabric of society,

:46:11.:46:14.

and not simply look at British Muslims as the solution

:46:15.:46:17.

That might start helping towards building a warmer, safer Britain.

:46:18.:46:25.

So how do we combat so-called IS and keep people in Wales

:46:26.:46:29.

Easy to ask, far more difficult to get everyone to agree on an answer.

:46:30.:46:35.

But whatever your colour, your creed and your community, until there is a

:46:36.:46:39.

definitive answer, the uncertainty, the threat, the fear,

:46:40.:46:43.

the suspicion is not going to go away.

:46:44.:46:47.

Earlier, I picked up on some of the issues raised there with a Muslim

:46:48.:46:54.

member of the National Assembly, the Conservatives' Altaf Hussain.

:46:55.:47:00.

You will see that it has been condemned worldwide.

:47:01.:47:04.

I am shocked, I am terrified by what has happened

:47:05.:47:07.

we pray for their families both in Paris and in Mali.

:47:08.:47:17.

We have seen that there has been a worldwide condemnation

:47:18.:47:21.

Also, you can see that the Muslim Council of Britain,

:47:22.:47:27.

the Muslim Council of Wales, have come out and condemned it.

:47:28.:47:31.

There is also a peace candle vigil in Newport organised by

:47:32.:47:36.

Islamic Council of Wales and that was attended by all the faiths.

:47:37.:47:44.

You are right, they are not coming out on the streets

:47:45.:47:50.

like we have seen at a time of war in Iraq, when we went there,

:47:51.:47:54.

there were so much people against, but they were not listened to.

:47:55.:48:00.

Muslims should coming out. They are coming out.

:48:01.:48:04.

It think it might take a little more while.

:48:05.:48:07.

this accusation that not enough is being done?

:48:08.:48:12.

Do you think there is a view in the Muslim community that they

:48:13.:48:16.

are being blamed, that they are constantly under suspicion,

:48:17.:48:19.

You have seen that we have created in the past multiculturalism, which

:48:20.:48:25.

has run its course, and what it has done is that we have multiple

:48:26.:48:32.

cultures, Islamic parallel not getting integrated,

:48:33.:48:37.

If you say the cultures are side-by-side rather than together,

:48:38.:48:50.

We need to integrate, we have to celebrate our diversity, we have to

:48:51.:48:57.

integrate, celebrating each person's uniqueness, and take it further.

:48:58.:49:03.

What keeps us apart, we need to condemn that.

:49:04.:49:09.

For example, we saw in the mosque in Cardiff, opening its doors,

:49:10.:49:16.

allowing schools in, is that the kind of opening up of

:49:17.:49:19.

the Muslim community you are talking about, or something different?

:49:20.:49:24.

In this country you have a rule of law,

:49:25.:49:27.

you have liberty, and you have freedom.

:49:28.:49:31.

You can do what you want, really, but it should be under rules.

:49:32.:49:36.

It is a way forward but it is happening now,

:49:37.:49:40.

Probably they need to be more open, you are absolutely right.

:49:41.:49:46.

This is the way forward, openness, integration.

:49:47.:49:50.

Is it a difficult time to try and get this to happen, when we look

:49:51.:49:56.

at the feeling in the public about immigration, about migrants

:49:57.:50:00.

and refugees coming to Wales and the UK, we are looking at a time when

:50:01.:50:05.

terrorism is a real concern for people, is it a difficult time

:50:06.:50:09.

to ask the Muslim community of Wales to open up

:50:10.:50:12.

because they might feel this suspicion against them?

:50:13.:50:15.

700 people, it is said, have gone to Syria.

:50:16.:50:27.

They do come back and when they do, we don't know.

:50:28.:50:30.

So we need to be very open to each other in these communities,

:50:31.:50:35.

they need to look after themselves, which is very important.

:50:36.:50:40.

Has there been a complacency, perhaps, in Wales?

:50:41.:50:43.

We note that there are young men in Cardiff, other cities perhaps,

:50:44.:50:49.

who have been radicalised, who have gone to Syria to fight with

:50:50.:50:53.

Have we felt these problems happened in London, elsewhere,

:50:54.:50:59.

rather than in towns and cities in Wales as well?

:51:00.:51:01.

Some blame poverty, a lack of aspiration, a lack of education,

:51:02.:51:09.

Because there is some other problem which we don't know.

:51:10.:51:18.

What would be your plan in terms of how that integration should work?

:51:19.:51:31.

If you had the Muslim community's ear now

:51:32.:51:34.

and you had a suggestion to make, what would that be?

:51:35.:51:38.

It is, for instance, we have to have proper education in all the schools.

:51:39.:51:43.

We don't know what is happening, where these children are going,

:51:44.:51:48.

because there is no character identified by the Muslims

:51:49.:51:52.

themselves, people are worried about what these children are taught,

:51:53.:51:56.

We have to also bring goodness, what we have, humanitarian laws and

:51:57.:52:05.

other things which we have, into our families and talk about it.

:52:06.:52:10.

Austerity, cuts, balancing the books -

:52:11.:52:19.

they're all very familiar phrases to anyone

:52:20.:52:22.

who's listened to the news or read a newspaper over the past five years.

:52:23.:52:26.

So what can we expect for the public finances over the next five years?

:52:27.:52:30.

On Wednesday, all eyes will turn to number 11 Downing St.

:52:31.:52:36.

George Osborne has said he wants to balance the books by 2019

:52:37.:52:39.

but it is turning out to be easier said than done.

:52:40.:52:43.

The Chancellor's proposed changes to tax credits were defeated in the

:52:44.:52:46.

House of Lords and have been widely criticised by some of his own MPs.

:52:47.:52:50.

He has also faced criticism for apparently planning further cuts

:52:51.:52:54.

Sharing the pain of how to cut public spending will be the big task

:52:55.:53:00.

for Mr Osborne, but at least some of his own side are fully behind him.

:53:01.:53:04.

The government are quite right to be making cuts to public spending and

:53:05.:53:08.

Of course there are issues now around policing, which are being

:53:09.:53:14.

looked at, and that is why the government have said we are going to

:53:15.:53:17.

recruit thousands more people into the intelligence agencies, we are

:53:18.:53:21.

certainly going to look at funding for firearms officers and the police

:53:22.:53:25.

in general as well, but what we can't do is have some sort of knee

:53:26.:53:28.

jerk reaction that says, we are borrowing ?100 billion here, let's

:53:29.:53:31.

up it to ?160 billion to get people on the ground now.

:53:32.:53:36.

It's a temporary fix that will undermine us in the longer term so I

:53:37.:53:39.

hope we are not going to back down on the need to balance the books.

:53:40.:53:44.

Ministers in Cardiff Bay want Mr Osborne to match ?600 million

:53:45.:53:50.

of funding for a city deal, backing major transport

:53:51.:53:54.

and infrastructure projects for Cardiff and South East Wales.

:53:55.:53:58.

We are also due to see details of the proposed flaw

:53:59.:54:01.

in the Barnett Formula, which decides how much money

:54:02.:54:04.

And it will be interesting to see if he is as enthusiastic about the

:54:05.:54:09.

Swansea Bay Tidal Lagoon in November as he was in March,

:54:10.:54:13.

just before the general election campaign.

:54:14.:54:15.

Either way, further cuts, we are told,

:54:16.:54:18.

could do serious damage to public services in Wales.

:54:19.:54:21.

I think we will get a continuation of austerity and cuts and,

:54:22.:54:24.

more worryingly, we will see further cuts to the police force, and we are

:54:25.:54:29.

concerned about the problem we have got with terrorism across Europe

:54:30.:54:32.

And I think local government will be under attack again,

:54:33.:54:38.

so older people in their homes will not get the care they need,

:54:39.:54:42.

facilities they hold very dear in their committees will close.

:54:43.:54:48.

George Osborne has said he wants to make an extra ?37 billion

:54:49.:54:52.

of savings over the next five years so, from Wednesday,

:54:53.:54:55.

he will be tightening his grip on the already squeezed public purse.

:54:56.:55:01.

Joining me to discuss the Spending Review are two AMs,

:55:02.:55:04.

Julie Morgan, a Labour member of the Assembly's finance committee

:55:05.:55:08.

and Shadow Finance Minister and Conservative Nick Ramsay.

:55:09.:55:16.

Thank you both for coming in. As we look ahead to Wednesday, we know

:55:17.:55:23.

there will be further cuts, no doubt about that, but it is quite a bleak

:55:24.:55:27.

forecast for those people on welfare, benefit changes. The

:55:28.:55:34.

Institute for Fiscal Studies says Welsh households on average losing

:55:35.:55:40.

?459 a year. It is a tough time over the next five years. It is a tough

:55:41.:55:46.

time and it has been over the last five years. I agree with what David

:55:47.:55:50.

Davies said in that clip, but the problem is that we have been

:55:51.:55:54.

borrowing far too much, we have been living beyond our means and it has

:55:55.:55:58.

fallen to the current UK Conservative government to draw the

:55:59.:56:01.

reins in and get the budget back on track. That is what is Spending

:56:02.:56:05.

Review is about. These are tough times but there is light at the end

:56:06.:56:11.

of the tunnel. In a few years' time the books will be balanced and

:56:12.:56:14.

Britain will be in an economically sound position. What do you think of

:56:15.:56:18.

the importance of balancing the books? Not spending so much on

:56:19.:56:23.

interest charges for money that has been borrowed? Is that a fair way of

:56:24.:56:27.

looking at this? George Osborne is not succeeding in balancing the

:56:28.:56:31.

books and figures that came out last week showed that very clearly. He

:56:32.:56:35.

said the deficit would be gone by the end of the first parliament,

:56:36.:56:39.

when the Conservatives took over in the coalition. That did not happen.

:56:40.:56:53.

I think the was halved. Now he says it will be balanced by 20/20 but the

:56:54.:56:56.

figures last week showed that was going to be difficult to do. It will

:56:57.:56:59.

be interesting to see what he does. Just looking ahead to 20/20, George

:57:00.:57:01.

Osborne wants a surplus by 20/20. Does he need to revise that, to have

:57:02.:57:06.

a rethink, given the tax take is lower than expected? First of all,

:57:07.:57:11.

you can't have it both ways. Labour can't say we have cut too far and

:57:12.:57:16.

too fast, and then say the deficit has only been halved. That was his

:57:17.:57:21.

promised. But you have done that would have required far greater

:57:22.:57:26.

cuts. All I am saying is, that was his mantra, he was going to stop the

:57:27.:57:30.

deficit in the last Parliament and he did not. He said he's going to do

:57:31.:57:35.

it by 20/20. It is what the Conservatives have said. But the

:57:36.:57:41.

situation was revised. Later this week, we will know where we are

:57:42.:57:45.

going to be fiscally in a few years' time so we will see at what point

:57:46.:57:49.

that surplus will be achieved. What we have seen over the last five

:57:50.:57:55.

years, cuts to public spending, but presumably the UK Government will

:57:56.:57:58.

have gone for the easiest cuts first. Whatever is coming now is

:57:59.:58:01.

going to be far more difficult to get through. It is not quite as

:58:02.:58:06.

bleak a picture as people paint. Within those cuts that are being

:58:07.:58:11.

made, there are protected areas. The National Health Service, the key

:58:12.:58:15.

priority of people in this country, that is going to be protected. We

:58:16.:58:19.

know the Welsh Labour government have not decided to protected her.

:58:20.:58:24.

In policing, there are going to be cuts to policing, but within the

:58:25.:58:27.

budget there is protection for issues like counter terrorism. Very

:58:28.:58:33.

important at the moment. And yet this morning, George Osborne refused

:58:34.:58:37.

to rule out the idea that there would be fewer police officers on

:58:38.:58:40.

the street. That has got to be a cause for concern during a time when

:58:41.:58:45.

we are facing terrorist threats. Within policing there are going to

:58:46.:58:49.

be priority is made. This is not going to be easy for anyone. A few

:58:50.:58:53.

years down the line, there is going to be a surplus, we are not quite

:58:54.:58:57.

sure the extent of what that will be yet, but imagine the amount of money

:58:58.:59:04.

we are going to have to spend on public services. This is a

:59:05.:59:06.

short-term challenge and a few years down the line, Wales and the UK will

:59:07.:59:09.

be fiscally better off. Looking at what this will mean for Wales,

:59:10.:59:16.

already we have heard Jane Hutt, the finance minister here, saying it is

:59:17.:59:19.

going to be terrible news for public services if there are any more cuts.

:59:20.:59:23.

Presumably we can expect some form of cuts on Wednesday. How bad? We

:59:24.:59:30.

have heard that some of the departments, the settlement has

:59:31.:59:32.

already happened with the government and there have been cuts, and those

:59:33.:59:37.

were transferred to Wales through the Barnett formula. That suggests

:59:38.:59:41.

there will be cuts. I am very concerned about local government

:59:42.:59:45.

because a lot of cuts have already happened. Probably it is very

:59:46.:59:48.

difficult to make any more cuts in local government. But we are going

:59:49.:59:53.

to have a Barnett floor. It will be interesting to see how much that

:59:54.:59:59.

Barnett floor is. This is the idea there is a minimum spend coming to

:00:00.:00:04.

Wales for the Welsh block grant. The Barnett foreman is obviously totally

:00:05.:00:08.

unsuitable and a House of Lords committee reiterated last week again

:00:09.:00:11.

that it is not fit for purpose but we have the government saying that

:00:12.:00:16.

during the Spending Review is going to bring forward a Barnett floor but

:00:17.:00:20.

that needs to be done in conjunction with the Welsh government. As I

:00:21.:00:24.

understand, so far, it has not been discussed with the Welsh government

:00:25.:00:27.

so it will be interesting to see what has happened. It is vital so

:00:28.:00:33.

that we don't fall even further behind, particularly when spending

:00:34.:00:37.

rises. That is a good point. Presumably having a Barnett floor is

:00:38.:00:40.

good but you need to decide what that is or else it is meaningless.

:00:41.:00:46.

How much do you think that needs to be pressure on to make sure it is at

:00:47.:00:50.

an acceptable level? The details have got to be finalised. The level

:00:51.:00:55.

of the floor will be important and we will be looking closely at that.

:00:56.:01:00.

But I make the point again, for the first time in living memory, we have

:01:01.:01:04.

a UK Government looking to protect the amount of money coming to Wales.

:01:05.:01:09.

We have not seen that before. 1.I would like to make, one of the

:01:10.:01:15.

issues we have seen in Wales, education of schools budget has been

:01:16.:01:20.

protected, 1 % above whatever comes from the UK Government. There were

:01:21.:01:23.

some suggestions in the newspapers this week, maybe that will make it

:01:24.:01:27.

through to the next Labour manifesto. Do you think that needs

:01:28.:01:34.

to be maintained or do you think it is better to have the flexibility? I

:01:35.:01:38.

think we have got to look at everything. The manifesto is in the

:01:39.:01:41.

process of being made so no decisions have yet been made. But in

:01:42.:01:46.

the position of the cuts that will be coming from Westminster,

:01:47.:01:49.

everything has got to be open for discussion. It would be great if we

:01:50.:01:54.

could keep that extra 1% because the education of our children must be

:01:55.:01:56.

one of the most important thing is that we do and there is a strong

:01:57.:02:01.

commitment from the Welsh Labour government but I think everything

:02:02.:02:04.

has to be considered. And we need to protect the NHS budget. I am afraid

:02:05.:02:09.

time has beaten us. Thank you for joining us. Thank you for

:02:10.:02:11.

time has beaten us. Thank you for joining us. Thank you

:02:12.:02:14.

time has beaten us. Thank you for need to come up bicycles and onto --

:02:15.:02:21.

people need to get on to bikes and of polluting cars.

:02:22.:02:24.

Can Jeremy Corbyn rein in his discontented MPs?

:02:25.:02:26.

Can George Osborne sell his spending cuts?

:02:27.:02:28.

Helen, let's start with the spending review. It is quite clear that

:02:29.:02:44.

deficit reduction is not getting any easier, even though the economy has

:02:45.:02:48.

been growing for some time. I thought it was interesting that even

:02:49.:02:52.

Nigel Lawson said the Chancellor may have to look if he wants to continue

:02:53.:03:00.

reducing the deficit, not just at spending cuts but tax rises. That is

:03:01.:03:09.

about having a surplus by 2020. It gives them very little room for

:03:10.:03:14.

manoeuvre. The big problem for the Tories in this Parliament, last

:03:15.:03:18.

parliament you had heavy cuts for councils which fell a lot on adult

:03:19.:03:22.

social care. A small number of people which hugely affected by

:03:23.:03:27.

that. The next round of cuts will mean a much larger group of people

:03:28.:03:31.

are affected. That is much harder to get past the public. It gets in a

:03:32.:03:38.

lot of money and a big revenue from the Government. Is that possible?

:03:39.:03:44.

There is logic to it, given to what has happened with oil prices. The

:03:45.:03:50.

logic is, low oil prices and the political logic will be, the gunmen

:03:51.:03:54.

will say, they have done enough on making fuel cheaper tax wise in

:03:55.:04:00.

recent years. They now have political room for manoeuvre on that

:04:01.:04:04.

issue. George Osborne is now boxed in, not just by the decision to aim

:04:05.:04:08.

for a surplus and the decision to aim for troubling pounds in welfare

:04:09.:04:12.

cuts, but also by the decision alluded to by Nigel Lawson to

:04:13.:04:17.

protect entire departments of spending, health service and foreign

:04:18.:04:25.

aid. Anything to do with people over 65. That leaves you with one option,

:04:26.:04:30.

to go to departments which have already made absolutely swingeing

:04:31.:04:34.

cuts over the last two years and ask for more. There is a perverse

:04:35.:04:39.

incentive that when the Treasury knows that for example local

:04:40.:04:42.

government or business is able to make very deep cuts, as they have

:04:43.:04:45.

done, those departments are awarded by being asked more cuts. There is a

:04:46.:04:50.

perverse incentive almost to hold out. George Osborne has a thoroughly

:04:51.:04:58.

consistent record. He will duff up the Labour Party and then implement

:04:59.:05:01.

the fiscal deficit reduction plan. In the last parliament he halved the

:05:02.:05:08.

overall fiscal deficit. In this Parliament he went into the election

:05:09.:05:12.

saying, I will run a 10 million surplus two years before the general

:05:13.:05:15.

election. He has all it is a laid back by one year. He has announced

:05:16.:05:20.

today the 10 billion has pretty much gone. He may run a surplus but it

:05:21.:05:26.

may be ?10 rather than 10 billion! That will be much closer to the Ed

:05:27.:05:30.

Balls plan. As Helen was saying, he has got himself into this mess

:05:31.:05:35.

because he set a trap for Ed Balls. There is a danger of just public

:05:36.:05:41.

weariness. I think the Treasury is worried about this. The mood of the

:05:42.:05:47.

public. We are into our sixth year and there is still 80 million to go.

:05:48.:05:53.

The public in Greece just got fed up. In Portugal a few weeks ago, the

:05:54.:05:59.

Portuguese economy was recovering well but the public got fed up. In

:06:00.:06:06.

the election campaign we heard about the long-term economic plan. If you

:06:07.:06:12.

asked people what that was, there are a few new. Most people assume

:06:13.:06:17.

that things were on the upside. They did not realise the cuts in the

:06:18.:06:23.

second term would be deeper. The comprehensive spending review will

:06:24.:06:30.

be live on BBC Two. It will be a political event. Let's move on to

:06:31.:06:35.

the Labour Party. We have the vote on Trident. SNP are putting it down

:06:36.:06:43.

and it is meant to be a trap for Labour. The leader it is against it

:06:44.:06:50.

but the party is in favour of it credible to say, just abstain? I

:06:51.:06:57.

think they will get away with it. It was set at conference but it cannot

:06:58.:07:01.

come onto the conference floor for three years. The Labour leader is

:07:02.:07:07.

completely opposed to it. He has said there is no compromise on it.

:07:08.:07:13.

He has had to make a series of compromises. No matter what Mr

:07:14.:07:18.

Corbyn and John McDonnell wants, they cannot change it for another

:07:19.:07:26.

three years? What happened at the Labour conference is they attempted

:07:27.:07:30.

to have it debated but they failed. It is up to the National policy

:07:31.:07:37.

Forum. This review is being chaired by Maria Eagle and Ken Livingstone

:07:38.:07:40.

for that they are looking at it and it will go to the National policy

:07:41.:07:46.

Forum to decide. That is a way of overruling what the existing rules

:07:47.:07:49.

are full you have a strange situation where Jeremy Corbyn wants

:07:50.:07:53.

to promote grassroots decision-making on things he agrees

:07:54.:07:58.

with. Not so much in this case. The point Caroline Flint was making, you

:07:59.:08:04.

cannot keep having free vote on such massive issues as to whether this

:08:05.:08:07.

country should have nuclear deterrent and whether we should

:08:08.:08:11.

extend the battle against Islamic State to Syria. You cannot have a

:08:12.:08:16.

huge disparity between leader and Parliamentary party on existential

:08:17.:08:20.

issues. What it leads to is the leader having to use flirted,

:08:21.:08:26.

surreptitiously methods to get his own way and negotiate around party

:08:27.:08:30.

policy. The ultimate example this week with getting Ken Livingstone,

:08:31.:08:35.

the famous defence expert, to have the defence review. Briefly, because

:08:36.:08:46.

I want to move on. If you get 60% of the vote in the leadership election,

:08:47.:08:50.

it is that at the fair to put your views forward. They need to make a

:08:51.:08:53.

decision by the time there is a big vote on Trident next year. The

:08:54.:08:58.

difficulties they hear and now. And that is Syria. The here and now is

:08:59.:09:02.

having an effect. We had a policy morning. One of the questions was

:09:03.:09:09.

about national-security. -- a poll this morning. Who do you think would

:09:10.:09:19.

keep you and your family safe? 39% trusted David Cameron and only 17%

:09:20.:09:24.

voted for Jeremy Corbyn. The point I put to Caroline Flint, this is

:09:25.:09:28.

dangerous for Labour. They already have a problem with economic

:09:29.:09:30.

security. That is one reason they did not win. To not be trusted

:09:31.:09:38.

national-security as well, it means it is well nigh impossible to win an

:09:39.:09:44.

election. There was a seductive narrative about patria to them with

:09:45.:09:51.

Jeremy Corbyn not singing with Queen -- not seeing the Queen 's speech. I

:09:52.:09:57.

think particularly in the aftermath of Paris, what people were looking

:09:58.:10:00.

to see from leaders were looking to see from leaders in summary. That is

:10:01.:10:04.

a huge problem. The problem also comes with the fact these polls are

:10:05.:10:11.

very bad. At this stage, Ed Miliband was doing better and that was, even

:10:12.:10:15.

then, people were talking about whether it would bring him down.

:10:16.:10:19.

Debts have a look at the state of the parties with the poll. I'm told

:10:20.:10:24.

this is the biggest Tory lead over Labour since John Major took over

:10:25.:10:27.

from Margaret Thatcher, 15 points. There we have the Tories on 42 and

:10:28.:10:35.

Labour down to 27. The Labour vote came down a couple of points. Ukip

:10:36.:10:41.

are still doing pretty well, at 15%. The Lib Dems are still

:10:42.:10:45.

flat-lining at 7%. The Scottish National 's get five. It means a lot

:10:46.:10:54.

more in Scotland. The Green party is down at 3% and going nowhere. At

:10:55.:11:02.

this stage of the process is it is not -- the process, it is not that

:11:03.:11:07.

important. Given all the problems we have had about tax credits and Tory

:11:08.:11:11.

difficulties, it is pretty disheartening. The last time the

:11:12.:11:17.

Labour Party scored 27% in a general election was under Baikal foot as

:11:18.:11:23.

leader. It has been a defining moment for Jeremy Corbyn and the

:11:24.:11:28.

Labour Party. -- under Michael Foot. You need to ensure the nation's

:11:29.:11:33.

finances are safe and national-security is safe. On the

:11:34.:11:38.

second one, is a nation secure in your hands? He appeared to be found

:11:39.:11:45.

wanting. You have a at a clown situation, what would you do? He

:11:46.:11:51.

equivocated and said, I would be an easy. -- a Bataclan Theatre

:11:52.:11:59.

situation. Only the next day did he finally set out the circumstances in

:12:00.:12:05.

which he would approve that type of response by the security services.

:12:06.:12:08.

The problem was his initial responses showed his instincts.

:12:09.:12:14.

Putting that in front of the British people, you will have a challenging

:12:15.:12:19.

time winning an election like that. The Parliamentary Labour Party has

:12:20.:12:22.

to be careful. They may not be in tune with the people in the country

:12:23.:12:27.

in the Labour Party who elected Mr Corbyn as leader. Although they are

:12:28.:12:31.

getting impatient, I would suggest they have to wait at least until May

:12:32.:12:38.

until the Scottish elections, the local government elections. They

:12:39.:12:42.

really cannot move before then, can they? They acknowledge he has a

:12:43.:12:46.

thumping great mandate from the election. A lot of those people have

:12:47.:12:52.

actually converted to being full party members. He still has a huge

:12:53.:12:58.

backing at grassroots level. The Mint is thriving and drawing in huge

:12:59.:13:05.

crowds of people. -- momentum is thriving. Even a later post was then

:13:06.:13:10.

they could come third in Scotland. They were saying Jeremy Corbyn is

:13:11.:13:16.

the 1 guy who could bring back the votes that were lost to SNP in

:13:17.:13:20.

recent years. By one warning to the Labour Party is, if you think 27% is

:13:21.:13:27.

low, wait until the public starts to focus on the next election? 27% is

:13:28.:13:35.

not the floor for Labour. We shall see. That is all for today.

:13:36.:13:39.

The Daily Politics will be back on BBC2 at noon tomorrow.

:13:40.:13:41.

And we'll be back again next weekend at the same time.

:13:42.:13:46.

We will be back to disentangle the spending review next Sunday at the

:13:47.:13:50.

same time. Remember if it's Sunday,

:13:51.:13:53.

it's the Sunday Politics.

:13:54.:13:59.

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