23/10/2016 Sunday Politics

There's another candidate in the race to become Ukip's next

leader: Suzanne Evans, the party's former deputy chairman,

This man might have something to say about that.

Paul Nuttal was Nigel Farage's deputy for many years.

So is he now ready to throw his hat in the ring?

The battle for Mosul: the Iraqi army and its allies advane

on the country's second city which has been in the hands of

But what will be the fallout from this key clash?

London this week, slum conditions in one of the richest cities in the

world. Should all private landlords be licensed to help tackle the

squalor? And with me - as always -

the best and the brightest political panel in the business: Toby Young,

Polly Toynbee and Tom Newton Dunn - The last leader was in the job

a mere 18 days before she decided The favourite to succeed her then

quit the party after a now infamous Ukip's biggest donor says the party

is at "breaking point". This morning, the former

Deputy Chairman, Suzanne Evans, announced that she would be

running for the leadership. I've thought long and hard

about this leadership bid, and one of the reasons I've perhaps

delayed announcing it is because I wanted to be absolutely

sure that I had the support And I can confirm that I have

more than enough signatures on the nomination form already

to be able to go forward. Let's not forget that 3,000 people

signed a petition in support of me I know head office was besieged

with letters in support. I would not be doing this

if I didn't have the backing of our members, because our members

are the most important Well, Paul Nuttall was

Nigel Farage's deputy for many years and plenty of people saw him

as a leader-in-waiting. Let's ask the man himself -

Paul Nuttall joins me now. Yes. I've made the decision that I'm

going to put my name forward to be the next leader of Ukip. I have huge

support across the country, not only amongst people at the top of the

party in Westminster and with the MEPs, but also the grassroots. I

want to be the unity candidate. Ukip needs to come together. I'm not

going to gild the lily. Ukip is looking over a political cliff at

the moment. It will either step four step back, and I want to tell us to

step backwards. You say it faces an ex-distension or threat, which means

it's possible it has no future at all. Students of political history

know that political parties take a long time to get going. They can

disappear pretty quickly. Ukip is facing an existential crisis. What

happened over the summer has put us on a... We could be on a spiral that

we can't get off. But I believe I am the man to bring the factions

together, to create unity within the party, and to build on the structure

and get us ready for the common challenges. Why didn't you stand

last time? Because I have spent the last four or five years of my life

travelling around the country. I have done more Ukip meetings than

anybody else, spending a lot of time away from home. With Brexit, I felt

that my job and Nigel's job was done and we could hand over to the next

generation. That doesn't seem to be the case, and maybe it's time for

someone who is an old hand. I'm very experienced and I know the party

inside out. Maybe it's time to step in and bring the party together. You

told the Liverpool Echo on the night of July that you didn't wish to take

on Nigel Farage, you didn't want that to happen to your family and

friends. What has changed? The party is facing an existential crisis, and

I want to make sure that Ukip is on the pitch to keep the ball into the

open net we have in politics. We have a Conservative Party who is

moving toward Brexit, but we have to be there too. Why would you be

better than Suzanne Evans? Suzanne would be an excellent candidate. I

thought the 2015 manifesto was the best out of all the political

parties. I would be the best candidate because of my experience.

I am not part of any faction within the party. Is she? I get on well

with everybody, and I believe I could be the man to bring the party

together. Do you get on with Iain Banks, -- Aaron Banks, who is

supporting one of your rivals? Yes, I get on well with him. He is able

to choose whoever he wants to be the next leader of the party. After

November 28, the leadership election, we all say, the past the

past. It becomes Daisy row for the new leader. We forget all that has

before and move on. You won the referendum. Mrs May is adopting some

of your policies, like grammar schools. What is the point of Ukip

these days? Twofold. We don't have Brexit. Mrs May said she would not

invoke Article 50 until the end of March, and we don't know if that

will happen. We need to ensure a strong Ukip to make sure that Brexit

really does mean Brexit. We have a huge opportunity in working class

communities where the Labour Party no longer represents them. I believe

Ukip can become the voice of working people. If you were the leader,

would Ukip be a bigger threat to Labour in the north or the Tories in

the South? You save Labour in the north, and people often to make that

mistake. There's working class communities right across the country

is. There are working-class communities in Bristol just

as in Newcastle. We are second in a number of northern seats, and

southern seats as well, and I believe the party can move into

these communities. It can only do so if Ukip is on the pitch, and I

intend to make sure that's the case. I don't think we have portrayed a

good image over the summer. Is that called British understatement? A

bit. It is dysfunctional. We have to move on beyond Nigel Farage. We have

to build a strong national Executive Committee. We need to ensure our

branches are ready for the fight and concentrate on local elections. I've

got the experience. I'm now throwing my hat into the ring, and I'm the

only person who can keep Ukip in the game. What role would you give Nigel

Farage, if any? I will be the candidate of compromise. I would see

what Nigel wanted to do. Would you keep in the leader of the freedom

and democracy group in the European Parliament? There would have to be

compromise on both sides, and we would need to talk about it. I don't

know what Nigel wants to do. Do you think his support, his association

with Donald Trump, helps Ukip win female votes in this country?

Personally, I would not have gone out and campaigned or said anything

about Donald Trump, but I don't think Ukip has come out and backed

Donald Trump 100%. Personally, I wouldn't have even spoken about the

American election, because I think the two candidates are quite

appalling. Some up for us. If you win, what would be the hallmark of

your Ukip leadership? The first couple of months would be ensuring

that Ukip unifies. Saying no to factions, bringing people together.

Suzanne Evans, Nigel Farage, all of the MEPs, and ensuring that Ukip can

move forward. If we don't unify, Ukip will not be around for much

longer. Thanks for being with us this morning.

We won't have to wait too long to find out who Ukip's

new leader will be - the winner will be announced

Who would be the best leader for Ukip? I think the difference between

the field a few weeks ago and today is that this field is a lot

stronger. Whether it's Paul or Suzanne, I think... It is hard to

say, with Aaron Banks and apparently Nigel Farage hacking another

candidate, Raheem, but I want Ukip to be a strong force in British

politics. I think the fact there is a stronger field now is good news

for Ukip. Is it a Labour's worst nightmare in the north of England?

It is. I think the personality difference and presentational

difference is interesting. Suzanne Evans is going for the Conservative

county vote. There's a lot to be taken there by Ukip. He would

probably be more appealing to the Labour vote. It is interesting. At

the moment, pollsters say that the Ukip vote splits pretty easily

between Labour and Tory. But things always collapse. When they have made

inroads into Tower Hamlets and Barking, they collapse, because they

fight amongst each other so much. But not always with fists! Does Ukip

have a future? And who would best secure that future? It does for at

least two years, until we Brexit. We have to believe that that will

happen. That was an impressive pitch there from Paul, certainly as the

unity candidate, after the car crash we have seen on TV screens this

morning. But it doesn't go beyond May 20 19. What then? There is no

point being called the United Kingdom Independence party any

longer. What will happen after May 2019? If you want to hoover up votes

of the back of Brexit, you need to start looking further ahead than two

years. The person who wins that leadership contest is the person who

will sum that up the best. We shall see.

In June 2014, the group which calls itself the Islamic State in Iraq

and the Levant captured Iraq's second city, Mosul.

Later that month the group announced it was establishing a 'caliphate',

or an Islamic state, on the territories it

This week 30,000 Iraqi troops, aided by Iranian-backed Shia fighters,

Kurdish Peshmerga and Western air support, began the assault

Then they spot a truck bomb from so-called Islamic State.

They destroy it before it destroys them.

These are the first steps in the battle for Mosul,

the Northern Iraqi city IS has made its stronghold since 2014.

Controlling the city of around 2 million people means

that they established governance, they establish a territorial base.

This is what has obsessed everyone, because with a territorial base

you are capable of doing more than if you are simply an insurgency

movement in the fabric of another society.

It's being billed as the biggest military operation in Iraq

since the war in 2003, the biggest moment in the international effort

Here is how the various forces are approaching the city.

Heading to Mosul from the south, the elite troops of the Iraqi army.

Known as the Golden division, trained and accompanied

From the North, a force made up of Kurds, known as the Peshmerga,

Also from the South, a militia made up of Shia fighters

who have been accused of human rights abuses.

British planes have bombed outlying villages, reportedly guided

in by British personnel on the ground.

To the North West, a corridor has been left for some

of the 3000 plus IS fighters, in theory an escape route

which could limit the bloodshed when fighting starts in the city.

We've had 4-5 days of battle and it's taking place

in the outlying villages and there have been some

successes and some failures, but the momentum is building.

And the real question will be when the attackers get

towards the city itself, how strong are the defences?

It will crack but it might crack within 48 hours or 2-3 weeks.

IS has fought back, on Friday they attack sites

in the city of Kirkuk, including a power station.

The United Nations believes hundreds of thousands of families

have been rounded up as potential human shields.

The battle could be bloody, but what about when it's over?

The Shia militias, the Iraqi army, the Peshmerga guerrillas,

some of the Turkish elements, they all want a share of the action.

They are in Mosul, not for altruistic reasons.

They are there because they want to be part of whatever happens next.

The biggest issue is how the Sunni majority in Mosul reacts to the Shia

militias which have helped to liberate them.

ARCHIVE FOOTAGE: When Sir Francis Humphrey went to Mosul

If it all seems like something from the archive, when the Middle

East went up in flames and was then carved up,

it is because that is what is happening in Iraq right now.

National identity has been cut across by other identities such

And that means that putting together a so-called nation state again

Almost certainly there will be a new form of Kurdish state,

almost certainly in northern Iraq at the end of this crisis,

and what is happening in Mosul is a microcosm of what is happening

elsewhere across the Levant which is that it is melting down.

Big questions, questions that come after the battle.

The coalition forces are advancing but this is just the beginning.

I'm joined now by the International Development Minister Rory Stewart.

In a former life he was the coalition Deputy-Governor of two

provinces in Southern Iraq following the Iraq intervention of 2003.

Is there any doubt that at some stage Mosul will fall to the forces

of Iraq and its allies? The first thing is that war is very uncertain

and there are cliches about it being the graveyard of predictions and we

don't want to make confident predictions but the basic structure

is that there are 30,000 Iraqi forces outside and only a few

thousand Daesh fighters inside and I would say it is overwhelmingly

likely that the batter will one STUDIO: -- the battle the won by the

Iraqi forces. June 2014 was a great success, they

took a city of over in people and they created what they tried to

create a million state of 7 million people, stretching across the Iraqi

Syrian border, but since then they have lost territory quite rapidly.

Now they are losing the outskirts of Mosul, and that is a fundamental

blow. Islamic State is all about territory and holding state, that is

what makes it different from Al-Qaeda. If they lose Mosul that

will be a cynic -- significant blow to their credibility. Hillary

Clinton said on Wednesday's presidential debate that when Iraqi

forces with their allies including the United Kingdom gain control of

Mosul they should continue to press into Syria to take back Raqqa which

is the de facto capital of the caliphate, what is left of it, do we

want Iraqi forces to pursue IS into Syria? Very important question.

Delayed in Raqqa needs to come from people on the Syrian side of the

border and that is an important principle -- the lead. In the end of

that enemy, Islamic State, is a common enemy for odd members of the

coalition including the Iraqi government. -- all members. There is

likely to be a humanitarian crisis especially if it ends up with street

to street fighting and IS are difficult to dislodge what are we

doing about that? We are doing very detailed scenario planning. It is

very uncertain what the scenario will be but much investment has gone

into creating a network of camps, refugees STUDIO: Refugee camps

around cash refugee camps, and that is where money, British money, ?40

million has gone recently into supporting that, especially in terms

of medical support to people. The United nation's emergency response

budget is ?196 million but only one third funded which sounds like we

are putting up a big chunk of what is already being funded. Why is

that? The international committee can't say they haven't seen this

assault coming, and the humanitarian fallout they may see from it. You

are absolutely right. We have seen it coming and we have been planning

since debris and we have put in about ?167 million into this --

planning since February. There has been a change in the nature of the

appeal, and if there is a lag in the accounting of it, but the money we

need at this stage is in place and we do have the support structure in

place for those refugees. You are right the United Nations is

continuing with its appeal and is asking for more money at the moment.

The converse magazine wrote this week that preparations for a big

exodus of people leaving the city have been made -- Economist

magazine. But confidence is not high in the preparations, is that a

unfair conclusion? If you can imagine the different scenarios, it

could be a few thousand and it could be a few hundred thousand coming out

of the city through a front line where the war is going on, that is

very difficult. You have to screen those people and disarm them, and

keep families together, and transport them and you have to bring

them into the refugee camps. The people working on this have been

working on this for long time, we have mapped the different routes we

have good camp infrastructure in place and we have people who have

worked in south to dam and other areas who are putting their

structures in place -- South Sudan. It is never easy but I think we have

done everything we can in the preparation for this. What is the

British role in what will probably be an even bigger issue, assuming

that Mosul is liberated and retaken, the humanitarian crisis is dealt

with, what role will we play in the rebuilding of Mosul? That will be

crucial to the future of Iraq, the second-biggest city and it will need

to be rebuilt. It will need to be rebuilt as a community as well as

bricks and mortar. And eight Sunni community that is not harassed by

the Shia. -- and eight. You are right. One of the core drivers is

that the Sunni community felt excluded and they did not feel they

have the trust from the Baghdad government. A lasting solution is

stopping some of Islamic State coming back, that involves making

sure the Sunni community have a stake in their future. That is

making sure that the governing structures are in place. The UK's

response is twofold, we have got to get the humanitarian aid right, that

is the short term, people who might be malnourished, coming out of the

front line. The second thing is working with the Iraqi government to

make sure that as we rebuild Mosul we do so in a way that that

population feels a connection to the Iraqi state. Islamic State is losing

territory everywhere in the Levant, it is almost finished in Iraq, we

think. It is down to one district in Libya, as well, just one small part

of the town. I suppose the risk is, if life is becoming more difficult

across these areas, it can start to look more in Europe and the United

Kingdom as a place to continue its terrorist attacks? That is a real

danger. You are right. This is a group which has proved over the last

five years very unpredictable and it changes for it quickly full stop

often it does unexpected things. In 2009 its predecessor had been

largely wiped out in Iraq and when it was under pressure in Syria it

went back into Iraq, and in the past it didn't hold territory but now it

holds territory, so you are right. There is a serious risk that as it

gets squeezed in the middle East it will try to pop up somewhere else

and Mac could include Europe and the United States -- that could. They

say that is something they have focused on full stop we also have a

big focus on counterterrorism security and making sure that we

keep the United Kingdom and Europe say. One final question. -- say. --

safe. Maybe events in Mosul could add to the migration crisis in

Europe, is that a possibility? Again, you are right, we have seen

in Syria it can push migration, the biggest push the migration was the

conflict in Syria, and that's the reason why we have but so much

energy into getting those refugee camps in place and getting the

humanitarian response in place -- put so much energy. People will want

to remain in their homes, this is their country, but we have got to

make it possible for them and that means in the short term looking

after their shelter and in the medium to long-term making sure they

have livelihoods, jobs and an economic development which is why

our support in Iraq is in the UK National interests because it deals

with these issues of migration and terrorists. Thanks for joining us.

I'm joined now by the Shadow Defence Secretary.

Does Labour support British participation in this offensive? We

fully support the participation in this offensive, extremely important

move forward and we voted for this back in 2014. We are asking the

government question is, of course, I was asking the Secretary of State

this week about this very offensive but we are fully behind our RAF

pilots out there and be trading that has been going on to help the forces

on the ground. -- the training full stop that is very clear. I wonder if

you'll lead it shares that clarity and that position. -- is your

leader. This is what Jeremy Corbyn has said.

What's been done in Iraq is done by the Iraqi

government, and currently supported by the British government.

I did not support it when it came up.

Well, I'm not sure how successful it's been, because most

of the action now appears to be moving in to Syria, so I think we

He doesn't sound very supportive. The issue about Mosul, it has been

very carefully prepared as Rory Stewart said and I hope we have

learned the lessons from previous offensives where we haven't learnt

sufficiently, and that is going to be crucial in this context. How the

aftermath is going to be dealt with. Of course will stop that clip was

from November last year, and things have changed. Two weeks ago he told

the BBC" I'm not sure it is working", in reference to air

strikes in Iraq, but it is working. We have got to see what happens in

Mosul, it is a very high-risk operation, but we also have to face

the fact that the people there are living under tyranny at the moment.

We have to ask very cirrus question shall stop he says he's not sure it

is working, when Mosul is the last major target be cleared of Islamic

State in Iraq. The combination of Allied air power has worked, why is

he not sure it is working? Because we have seen difficulties in the

past. But this was two weeks ago. It is essential that the work is done,

both planning for the refugees as Rory Stewart referred to, but also

in terms of reconstruction of the city and its community as you

mentioned. These are vital. This was about the ability to make progress

with Allied air power, special forces in Iraq, on the ground, do

you accept so far that has a strategy that seems to be working to

read Iraq of Islamic -- to read Iraq of Islamic State the question of the

car began placement. Ulloa -- we can't be complacent. The problems

they are creating where ever they are urged that we must continue to

pursue them. This is the first time we have spoken to since you have

become the Shadow Defence Secretary. I hope we will have a longer

interview. Will Labour's next manifesto include a commitment to

the renewal of Trident? It will. We made that commitment in 2007, that

is a firm commitment and we will honour that to our coalition allies

and our industrial partners and that is the vote which was taken

democratically and repeatedly has been reaffirmed by Labour conference

and we are a democratic party vote up you have squared that with Jeremy

Corbyn? He's in favour of democracy and he understands the situation,

but we also want to push for the UK to play a much bigger role on the

international stage on multilateral disarmament talks. You were very

clear there, I thank you for that. Support for Trident will be in the

next Labour manifesto. What has happened to Labour's review of

Trident policy? That review has been taking place over the year, we had a

very clear reaffirmation in the conference boat this year, we are

reaffirming our commitment to Trident -- vote. The review can't

change that? There is a process of review and a fair number of issues

related to defence, all parties do this. Of course. The review can't

change the commitment to Trident? We are not changing the commitment to

Trident. Russia is now the main strategic threat to this country? It

is a major strategic threat and we have got to work with our Nato

allies very closely and make sure that we respond and that we do not

let things pass. For example, we should be calling out Russia for the

way it has been a bombing humanitarian aid and we should be

taking them to international court over this, but we should also be

strengthening sanctions, somewhat imposed over Ukraine. We try to do

that, but the Italians wouldn't let us. The Italians did not want to

participate in the European initiative but that doesn't stop

individual countries for the Britain should step up? Yes, we should look

at what is practical to impose. Thanks for joining us.

Mosul is not the only major battle being waged in the Middle East.

The city of Aleppo in northern Syria has seen some of the heaviest

bombardment since Syria's five-year-long civil war began.

This week Russian warships, in a deliberate show of power,

sailed west through the English channel en route to Syria.

Nato says it's Russia's "largest surface deployment" since the end

of the Cold War in what is thought to be preparation

for a final assault on the besieged city of Aleppo.

In the city itself fighting resumed overnight -

following a 3-day ceasefire - with more air strikes and heavy

clashes in the city's rebel-held eastern districts.

Almost 500 people have been killed and 2,000 injured

since Syrian government forces, backed by Russian air strikes,

This week Theresa May condemned Vladimir Putin's involvement

in Syria, accusing Moscow of being behind "sickening

atrocities" in support of President Assad's regime.

But European leaders are divided on how to respond and,

with the United States preoccupied with domestic politics,

President Putin senses this is his moment to bring the Syrian

I'm joined now by the BBC's former Diplomatic and Moscow Correspondent,

Bridget Kendall, who is now Master of Peterhouse College in Cambridge.

Welcome. Good to see you in the BBC studio again. Let me put up this

satellite image of Aleppo here, to get an idea of the scale. It was the

biggest city in Syria. It was the commercial capital and a huge

cultural hub as well. Almost the New York of Syria, to give you an idea

of its significance to the country. Let me show you now how it's been

divided. The rebels are now in control of the eastern part, about

eight miles long and three miles wide there, they're in purple. They

are under great attacks still. Is it inevitable that that purple part

falls to the regime? That is what President as Saad, the Russians and

the Iranians hope. The fierce bombardments we have seen is part of

that. I'm reminded very much in the Russian tactics of what happened in

grudgingly in Chechnya in 2000, when the Russians said, a warning for all

civilians to lead, and then they went ahead and they basically raised

it to the ground. They are talking about Al Nusrah as being one of the

rebel groups. They got rid of all of the terrorists. They talk about it

being an Al-Qaeda offshoot. The purpose of going in is to get rid of

them. You get the civilians out and then you take it. But this isn't

like Chechnya. It is much more complex. We have seen an attempt to

take Aleppo before, and then there was a rebel counter offensive. It's

not so certain. And there are so many different parties involved. We

have seen the alarm in the west of the extent of the civilian

casualties. There have been rumblings in the west of, shouldn't

the United States do something? Shouldn't they stop the Syrian air

force? This Russian aircraft carrier steaming its way towards the Eastern

Mediterranean is a symbolic gesture, both to its own people, but also to

the West, to say, don't get involved in Aleppo if we go ahead. Don't try

and stop us because we could up the ante. They have not been great

visual pictures, because the aircraft carrier looks a bit clapped

out, belching out smoke! If the rebel controlled area does fall, it

would be seen as a great victory for President as Saad and his Russian

allies. What is the aim of Russia here? What would they then do, if

Aleppo Falls? It is part of a plan that President Putin set out in his

UN speech in 2014, before Russia went into Syria. The aim is to put

President Assad back in charge. President Putin said this weekend

that either is Assad in Damascus, or its Al Nusrah. There is nothing in

between. They want to eliminate the argument for a moderate opposition.

They want to make it plain that the only way to get a stable Syria is to

have Assad back in charge. Even sue argue for a rump steak lit, leaving

aside what is happening with IAS. They have already said they want to

have an enlarged military presence at their bases. And they have a big

naval base. It is. It is a chance to push for this when he sees the West

is being distracted and divided. Europe and America, by elections and

so on. Just before the US elections. The Americans are worried about

that, Europeans are being distracted by Brexit. He can push to his

maximum advantage now, before there is a new US president. If they do

take that part of Aleppo, and that part of northern Syria, does Mr

Putin want us to recognise, to admit, that that is now his sphere

of influence? I think the rhetoric from the Russians is that they want

the West to recognise that they are an equal powerful partner. It's not

just the US that runs the writ in the Middle East. Russia is as

important as it is. It is engaging with Saudi Arabia and has mended

fences with Turkey. Syria is the place from which it can launch its

message that it is a big player in the Middle East. Russia wants the

West to understand that this isn't a country that was dismembered after

the end of the Soviet Union and is now a week. It is back, and it is

strong. That is an important message. Looking at the economy. It

is in recession. GDP has been falling, partly because of the price

of oil. It is highly dependent on hydrocarbons, and is expected to

fall again. Its people are falling again. People don't realise how

small the Russian economy is. Its GDP is about the size of Italy's. It

is smaller than the UK economy. Bigger than it was 15 or 20 years

ago. But so is Britain's does it help to take people's mind of this?

A huge shock to the Russian economy was a drop in the price of oil and a

price of gas. A drop in the price of the ruble as well. This is hurting

the people of Russia. On the one hand, it is the war in Syria, which

is very important for Russia to sort out that part of the world and

dispensed terrorists who might be danger to -- is dangerous to Russia.

But he had also has presidential election is going up. They are

supposed to be 2018, but some feel he will bring them forward to 2017,

because the economy is not doing so well. But you need a good story for

the Russian people. Thank you very much.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now

for Sunday Politics Scotland. go ahead with this policy, I know.

And now back to Andrew. So, Brexit, airports,

Calais and the chances With what Rory Stewart was saying

there, it is clear that Islamic State is losing territory in Iraq

now, and could come under pressure in Syria as well. It used to control

a whole swathe of the coast of Libya, and is now down to a small

area of Sirte in Libya. But curiously, it could make them more

dangerous here if they are being driven out of the Maghreb and the

Levant, they could be more dangerous here. Discuss. That was a very

interesting admission from a government minister, of all people,

and a well-informed one. Chasing Isis around the Middle East is

about... Like chasing Al-Qaeda around Afghanistan and Pakistan. You

smash them somewhere, and they pop up somewhere else. He is right to

warn that these guys will go somewhere. And it may well be, in

Sirte, for example, across the magic oration -- across the Mediterranean

into Italy. A lot of the foreign fighters in Mosul have already gone,

we heard, which raises the question, to where? I think it is quite right

for government ministers to warn that it might have repercussions

here. We have been involved in this, with full public consent, as far as

we can tell. If it doesn't happen, if there are horrors and outrages

here and in the rest of Europe, that's fine. If it does happen, at

least the government is prepared. We knew surprised about how categorical

Nia Griffith was? She was categorical about support for the

Allied action in Iraq, and categorical about Russia. So much so

that perhaps written should take tougher sanctions on its own, even

if it can't get the Europeans to fall in line. I found that

interesting. I was surprised by that. Tom may be right that Rory

said more than perhaps he was intending, but I thought that some

of what she said sounded politically imprudent in the current context of

the Labour Party. I'm not sure she cleared those lines with the Labour

office. I'm not sure she and Jeremy are in the same place about it. I'm

not sure there is that much leadership. People at the moment get

out there and say what they think it's right for the party. She

sounded dead right to me. Whether it is ill-advised or not, people should

answer... I want to move on, because Brexit never goes away. This week we

saw Hilary Benn, former Shadow Foreign Secretary. He is going to be

the chair of the select committee in the Commons which will monitor the

Department for Brexit. All sorts of people will be coming to give

testimony and so one. Let's hear what he told Andrew Marr.

I think it will be very important for the government to indicate that

if it is not possible within the two years provided for by Article 50

to negotiate both our withdrawal agreement and a new trading

relationship, market access, including for services,

80% of our economy, million jobs, in financial services,

that it should tell the House of Commons that it will seek

a transitional arrangement with the European Union.

If the deal is not done at the end of the two-year Article 50 process,

would the government go for an interim agreement, or would it fall

back on WTO, World Trade Organisation, Rawls? My

understanding is the article 15 negotiation doesn't specifically

include what Britain's future trading relationship with the EU

would be. It is perfectly possible that Article 50 could be triggered,

and after two years we don't have a trade deal, but the trade deal

negotiations are ongoing when we are outside the EU. But the trade deal

negotiations are the most important thing. If Article 50 doesn't cover

it, what is it about? Absolutely essential. The trade deal with

Canada has taken nine years, and now it looks like it is fading, because

of the Walloons. Just one small part of the country. If you cannot do a

free-trade deal with Canada, a progressive, social Democratic

Canada, who can the EU do a trade deal with? You would think it would

be easy with us, because we have all of the level playing field

agreements in place. You would hope it would be easier, but it may not

be, because in the end, it will hinge on the single market and if we

are in or out. If we are in, can we have a small break on immigration?

It looks like not. What is interesting about the opinion polls

is, in the last two opinion polls there was a significant change in

public opinion, where people are now saying they think that actually

trade, the economy, the single market is more important than

immigration. If it is really true, as the observer is reporting today,

that banks are on the move, and in a year's time there could be a

significant collapse in the income we get from finance, the income that

the Treasury gets, then public opinion might change. They may say,

we don't want more immigration, but this isn't a price worth paying.

Everything tends to be seen through the Brexit lens at the moment.

Things are not always as they seem. The Canadian- EU free trade

agreement was about increasing free trade between the EU and Canada, and

therefore subject to the ratification of all members. Any

deal we do will not give us the same access we have at the moment. The

question is, how much will it be diminished? It may not be subject to

the same ratification process. Absolutely right. Another

unbelievably technical point that we still don't know is, if we can get

this free-trade deal with the EU at the same time as our Brexit talks

and deal, the divorce deal as well as the remarriage deal, then one

gets signed off by QM V. The trade deal may still need all 28, all 27,

including the people from the Walloons. And the MEPs. The majority

of parliament. This is exactly why Theresa May would like the

transitional deal to push this one deeper. I was surprised to hear

Hilary Benn pushing this line this morning. The remainers have been all

over the place. They wanted a vote after Article 50 had been triggered

about the deal. Then they wanted a vote before Article 50. Now they are

talking about a vote before article Article 50 is triggered about a

trade deal. They need to make up their minds about what it is they

are pushing for, and what their best hope of obstructing Brexit is, and

stick with it. Something else we see through the Brexit lens, which isn't

always helpful, is Calais. The French bulldozers will move in

tomorrow. We will see some pretty disturbing scenes on the TV. We will

see some horrible scenes. The government has handled this very

badly. Having passed an amendment in April saying we would take something

like 3000 children, a lot of those children have disappeared. Save the

Children, one of the charities there, are very worried that people

traffickers have been in there, and a lot of those children have

vanished. We haven't sent social workers in. No preparations have

been made what ever. You are raising an interesting point. We don't know

how many we are meant to be taking. The huge argument has arisen over

what the age is of some of the ones coming in. Is this another problem

for the Home Office? To some extent. Didn't Theresa May 's too well to

survive six weeks of this? Amber Rudd has been there for three

months. It is clear that the Home Office didn't prepare for this. They

didn't prepare for the age verification or when it will go. It

needs to be an perfect. We don't know how many we will take, because

the Home Office will not say. I want to talk about airport capacity, but

I won't, because I don't think we have anything to say about it until

the statement on Tuesday from Transport Minister Grayling. When

you look at the polls and see the decision on airport runway expansion

being kicked into the long grass for a year, are we heading for an early

election next year or not? I think Theresa May will do everything she

can to avoid it. If there is an election before 2020, it is bound to

be about Europe, and that is a much harder case for her to win than just

a question of who is the best Prime Minister. She will have a tough

time, because it will be a general election about in or out of the

single market. Half of her party will peel away. How do she conduct a

general election when the likes of Anna Soubry will not stand on the

same platform? It will be difficult. But she may reach such a stalemate

that she just calls one. No general election next year because it will

split the Tory party. There will be won in 2019 when she cannot get

Brexit through the House of Commons. You really can have too much of a

good thing. I just want to show a little clip of the former Shadow

Chancellor, Ed Balls, from Strictly last night. Let's just watch this.

There he is. Where is the hand? That is the

worrying bit! We will no longer be saying that Ed Balls is a safe pair

of hands! Can we agree on that? Remarkable that he was once the man

most feared by David Cameron! Labour leader 2021. He has hit popular

culture in the way that many few politicians do. Charm, gusto,

bravery, no worries about being embarrassed. All the things that you

don't like about being a politician. We have run out of time. You can get

it on social media. Jo Coburn will be back

with the Daily Politics tomorrow And I'll be back here next

Sunday at the same time. Remember if it's Sunday,

it's the Sunday Politics. Everyone's living these

amazing lives, You're like a...

Different person?