16/10/2016 Sunday Politics


16/10/2016

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Boris Johnson hosts a summit of allies in London

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to discuss how to broker a peace settlement in Syria.

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But as war continues to rage, could "no-bomb zones" -

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thought to be backed by the Foreign Secretary -

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protect civilians, and how would they work?

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We were told by the Remain campaign that a vote to leave the EU would

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But with the economy growing and employment at record

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Can Theresa May make a decision on airport expansion

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without triggering a Conservative cabinet bust-up

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We look at what's at stake, as the PM prepares to choose

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In London, with a decision imminent on whether to expand Heathrow, is

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Brexit causing uncertainty in the aviation sector?

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All that to come before 12.15 - and the Scottish Secretary, David

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Mundell, on Nicola Sturgeon's plans for a second referendum

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And with me throughout - Tom Newtown Dunn,

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Julia Hartley-Brewer and Steve Richards.

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They'll all be tweeting their thoughts and comments

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So, in just over an hour, the Foreign Secretary,

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Boris Johnson, will host a meeting of foreign allies in London,

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including US Secretary of State John Kerry,

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to discuss military options in Syria.

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Last week, Mr Johnson said the public mood had changed

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after relentless bomb attacks on Aleppo

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and that more "kinetic action" might be possible.

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Has the public mood changed on Syria? There is a desire to end the

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horror, but has the public mood really changed? Not really. When

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asked, the Public say that something must be done and we must stop the

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slaughter, but when also asked whether to put British troops there,

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they say, probably not. We have a new Foreign Secretary and British

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government, and we will have a new White House come January for sure.

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So there is a feeling that what has gone so far in terms of not

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intervening, not trying to oppose or block Putin from doing what he wants

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in Syria has failed, so time to try something else. There was talk of a

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no-fly zone. There's not so much talk about it now. Now there's

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suddenly a no-bomb zone. Are we clear what that would be? It is

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meaningless without a no-fly zone and no one is willing to enforce it.

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For me, the biggest issue is, what is the point of the United Nations?

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With Russia vetoing any possible peace plan, we are in a situation

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where we are basically handing over our moral authority in the world for

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dealing with humanitarian disasters and war crimes being committed by

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the side regime and Putin to an organisation which is controlled by

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Putin effectively because he has a veto on the Security Council. The

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situation is untenable. We cannot sit and pretend we don't want to be

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involved in this war. We are already at war, and we will be at war. We

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need to get to grips with it sooner or later. If we are willing to say

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that we don't care about Syrian children dying... But we are not

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willing to say that, so we need to do something about it. We could care

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deeply but admits there is not something we can do about it.

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Indeed. When Julia says "Get involved", that does not translate

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to anything precise or specific. The problem is you go round in circles

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when it comes to reaction, because when people are then asked what the

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endgame is - and you do need to have a sense of the end and an aim, and

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one of the problems with Iraq was that there was not that - you can

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simply say, something needs to be done and we are involved and there

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should be military action, but that raises 10,000 other questions which

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no one is capable of answering. As I understand it, the no-bomb zone

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would be that we would designate areas where no bombing would be

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allowed. We wouldn't have planes to stop it happening, but if bombing

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did happen in those areas, we would use missiles to take out Syrian

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infrastructure. It seems complicated, and to not take into

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account what we would do if the Russians put anti-missile batteries

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around this Syrian infrastructure, as well they might. And you could go

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one step further. Your understanding is the same as mine. Doing something

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to prevent drops being -- ones being dropped in that area, but without

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engaging with Russia. You could fire cruise missiles into a runway, which

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we were warned could be done, but the problem is, you could have a

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Russian jet in the middle of that runway, or a bus of school kids. We

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know that they are capable of doing that. You are looking towards a

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confrontation with Russia, what ever you do. Boris Johnson would say this

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is the kind of HARDtalk we need to get the man to listen, because

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everything else has failed. Mr Kerry being there is significant, but at

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this stage in the election cycle, it's hard to sue what -- see what Mr

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Obama would do. We have no idea what to reason may's foreign policy is in

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terms of intervention. The last thing she would want to do is to get

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involved in a Middle Eastern war. But we are already involved. And the

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idea that our entire foreign policy should be based on not having a

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conflict in the Putin... The West as a whole is not wanting to have a

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conflict with him, and that is why he is acting how he is.

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Nicola Sturgeon, the First Minister of Scotland, has repeated her

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warning that, if the UK leaves the single market, she will push for

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Speaking to Andrew Marr earlier this morning, Ms Sturgeon said

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she would not hesitate to protect Scotland's economic interests.

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There's a principle here about, you know,

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Does what we think, and what we say, and how

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And that's what's going to be put to the test, I think,

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Theresa May, perfectly legitimately, says she values the UK,

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In the Independence Referendum, Scotland was told repeatedly

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My message to the Prime Minister is, it's now time to prove these

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things, and demonstrate to Scotland that our voice does count

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within the UK, and our interests can be protected.

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Because if that's not the case, then I think Scotland

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would have the right to decide whether it wanted to follow

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I've been joined by the Secretary of State for Scotland, David Mundell.

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Welcome to the Sunday Politics. During the Scottish referendum

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campaign, two years ago, the ETA Together campaign claimed that the

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only guaranteed way for Scotland to remain in the EU was to stay in the

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UK. That turned out to be untrue. You owe the people of Scotland an

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apology. That isn't the full facts. It was made clear during the

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referendum in Scotland that there could be an EU referendum. Ruth

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Davidson, on many occasions, made it clear that people in Scotland would

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have the opportunity to vote on whether or not they remained in the

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EU. What was clear in that referendum, and you played a

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significant part in highlighting it, was that those who were advocating a

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yes vote could not set out a clear route for Scotland to get into the

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EU as an independent nation. They were told if they stayed in the UK,

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that was their best route to remaining in Europe. It turned out,

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it is obvious that that was untrue. It was a route that meant there was

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going to be an EU referendum. That was made very clear throughout that.

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People voted in Scotland decisively to remain part of the UK in full

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knowledge that there would be a referendum on whether the United

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Kingdom remained in the European Union. That is what the vote on the

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23rd of June in Scotland was about. It was about the UK remaining in the

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EU, not Scotland. The people of Scotland were told to vote for the

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union to be sure of staying in the UK. They also voted 62% to 38% to

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stay in the EU. Now they are being dragged out against their will.

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Surely that is grounds for a second Scottish referendum? I don't accept

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that. I've voted to stay in the EU, but I didn't do so on the basis that

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if I didn't get my own way that Scotland would be dragged out of the

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United Kingdom. We have had a once in a generation vote as to whether

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Scotland remained part of the UK. There was a decisive result in that.

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On the assumption that we would also remain part of the European Union,

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so a major change has taken place. I don't accept that analysis. People

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were told that there would be a vote on whether the UK remained in the

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EU. The reasons for Scotland remaining in the UK were

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overwhelmingly economic, and those issues remain today in relation to

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the UK single market. It is very odd that people who are concerned about

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the EU single market are quite willing to

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give up the UK single market, which is four times as valuable to

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Scotland, and responsible for a million jobs. If the Scottish

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Government demands another referendum, will the UK Government

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grant it? The UK Government will have two agreed to a referendum, but

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we want to argue that there shouldn't be another referendum. It

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is in Scotland's best interests at the two governments work together

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with 18 UK approach to get the best possible situation for Scotland...

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If the Scottish Parliament decides that we do want -- we do not like

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the terms of Brexit and we want another referendum, would you grant

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it? There would have to be an agreement between the two

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governments in the same form as the Edinburgh Agreement. The great shame

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of the Edinburgh Agreement, which the SNP used to quote repeatedly, is

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that they have not adhere to it, because a fundamental part of that

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would be that both sides would respect the result. Viewers will

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notice that you haven't really answered my question. Could Scotland

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remain inside the single market in Europe as part of the Brexit

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process? From the outset, I have said we would listen to any proposal

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that the Scottish Government brought forward in relation to Scotland's

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interests. We have had for months and no specific proposals have come

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forward. Nicola Sturgeon was talking about proposals this morning, but at

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this moment, I see it impossible that Scotland could remain within

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the EU whilst the rest of the UK leads. It would be difficult to see

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how that could be achieved. But we will listen to any proposals the

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Scottish Government bring forward in relation to achieving the best

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interests of Scotland. I am convinced that Scotland's best

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interests are being part of the UK. You praised Scotland's membership of

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the single market during the referendum. In March of this year

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you said it secured jobs, was vital to tourism and industry, inbound

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visitors and the rest of it. So why would you not want to retain it for

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Scotland? I agree with the benefits Scotland has received from the

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single market, but we are in a different situation now. The UK is

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negotiating its exit from the EU. The Prime Minister has said it is

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not going to be on the basis of existing arrangements, it will be on

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the basis of a new arrangement, and as part of that, we will want to

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secure the best arrangement for Scottish businesses. Given the

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history we have gone through, do you want to guarantee a special post

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Brexit status for Scotland. We leave the EU, but Scotland will have a

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distinct status? I'm willing to look at any proposal brought forward that

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looks at Scotland's interests. We have had no specifics from the

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Scottish Government. They say now that they have them. It is a bit rum

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to attack the Scottish Government. The principle is, could Scotland

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have a special position, and would you help that or not? I am willing

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to listen to any proposal brought forward. Will fishing and farming go

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back to Edinburgh? The devolution settlement are going to be a

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change,... Will they go to Edinburgh or to London? We will have a

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decision at the end of that process. I want to make sure we have the best

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arrangement for Scotland. You can't answer the question? We want to

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listen to what fishermen and farmers say, and the people of Scotland. It

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will be a package of arrangements, clearly, that need to be taken

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forward as a result of leaving the EU. One final question. If the

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Scottish Nationalist MPs vote against grammar schools, which are

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purely for England, isn't that proof that your English votes for English

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laws isn't working? It demonstrates all MPs in the

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Parliament have the opportunity to vote on all issues. You wouldn't

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mind if they voted to stop Grammar schools? Of course I wouldn't --

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would mind... I think we have got the balance right in that

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legislation. It is meaningless if they can vote to stop grammar

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schools when it doesn't affect Scotland. They have to answer for

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that, based on an opportunistic approach and cause resentment in

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England. Thank you for being with us.

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During the EU Referendum campaign, leading Remain supporters repeatedly

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warned that a vote to leave the European Union would cause

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Three months on, were their forecasts accurate?

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Since the vote on June 23rd, the economic news

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The value of the pound has been in pretty steady depreciation

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since referendum day, falling to a 31-year

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It was as low as $1.18 but has still rebounded a bit.

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The weak pound left Tesco in a situation.

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They stopped selling Marmite and other products for a day online

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And a leaked Treasury report said that Government tax revenues

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could be down by 66 billion a year in a post-Brexit economy.

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Though the report emanated from Project Fear days.

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However, many of the short-term economic fundamentals

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The dominant service sector grew a healthy 0.4% in July.

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In the same month, the unemployment rate dipped to under 5%,

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House-buying has also been rising since the referendum,

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nearly 110,000 properties were purchased in August.

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Is the economy already suffering from the Brexit blues or not?

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Joining me now is the former shadow Europe Minister,

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the Labour MP Pat McFadden, who was a Business Minister

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Do you know concede that nearly all the short-term economic forecasts

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made by the Remain campaign have turned out to be untrue at best,

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scaremongering at worst? No, I think this week was the week that the

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beginnings of the economic effects of Brexit began to take hold, most

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obviously on the currency fall. You talk about short-term, this began on

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the night of the referendum itself and was given booster rockets by the

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signals sent out by the Conservative Party conference. In terms of the

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warnings next to reality, the warnings about the fall of the

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currency speculated that it might fall in value by about 12%, the

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reality is closer to 20%. Let's look at some of the warnings. We will

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come back to the currency, but let's look at this. The Treasury report on

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maybe 23rd said the following: That turned out to be untrue, didn't

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it? What has happened here, which isn't in line with those warnings,

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is consumer confidence has remained high. The actions of the Bank of

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England in cutting interest have been important, so the short-term

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effect in terms of consumer confidence... So it is wrong? Hasn't

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turned out in line with that, but it would be complacent in the extreme

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to conclude that with the effects of the currency which we know also from

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the Bank of England's comments the other dates will feed into higher

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prices, which will hit lower income consumers hardest. But we don't know

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yet, I will come onto that but in the short term, I will show you

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another one. A month before the referendum, the Chancellor George

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Osborne said this: That turned out to be wronged too,

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didn't it? We are not in recession but if you look at the forecasts of

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growth over the next few years, the Bank of England have forecast growth

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next year to not be the 2.3% it thought before the referendum but to

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be 0.8%. Is it forecasting a recession? No, but it is forecasting

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a slowdown which would mean GDP after two years would be for the ?5

:19:58.:20:02.

billion less than the estimates before the referendum took place.

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And it might be wrong, because look, it was wrong about the recession. Is

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anybody now forecasting a recession? I don't know if anybody is

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forecasting a recession. The IMF are certainly forecasting a slowdown in

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a similar way to the Bank of England. George Osborne also said

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house prices will plummet by 18%. Any sign of that? House prices are

:20:29.:20:36.

not plummeting by 18%. Your side that you represent made much of the

:20:37.:20:40.

IMF's claim that provoked Leave would mean an immediate slide into

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recession, a collapse in house prices, and a crash in stock markets

:20:46.:20:52.

which of course are currently at record levels. Even the IMF admits

:20:53.:21:00.

there is none of that. There maybe longer term dangers but in the

:21:01.:21:05.

short-term it happen. In the short-term it didn't happen. In the

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short term what has happened here, as I said a moment ago, is consumer

:21:10.:21:14.

confidence has remained high, the Bank of England cut interest rates

:21:15.:21:18.

which put more money into people's pockets and I think the action they

:21:19.:21:23.

took was important, but I think it would be wrong to say imply that

:21:24.:21:27.

because these things haven't happened in the first few months

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that we are somehow out of the woods on the economy. I understand that,

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that's the last thing I would say, but here's the question - most of

:21:37.:21:40.

these forecasters are still pretty gloomy about the long-term but if

:21:41.:21:44.

they couldn't get the last few months right, why would you trust

:21:45.:21:50.

them for 2025 when they couldn't say what will happen in September? Why

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would you trust them to say what happens five years from now? People

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will ask the question but the big tangible we have is in the decline

:22:03.:22:08.

of the currency and that is a real and now effect. We can talk about

:22:09.:22:13.

whether it is lost or minus, but the Government said the other day this

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would bring inflation back, to use his words it is going to get

:22:18.:22:21.

difficult, particularly for people on lower incomes and that will feed

:22:22.:22:26.

into people's purchasing power. The international markets partaking of

:22:27.:22:30.

you have our future prospects and at the moment it is not a vote of

:22:31.:22:36.

confidence. Do you agree with the latest Remain mantra that people

:22:37.:22:40.

might have voted to leave the EU but didn't necessarily vote to leave the

:22:41.:22:46.

single market? I do agree with that. A lot of people have said people who

:22:47.:22:50.

voted to leave didn't know that's what they were voting for, so let me

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show you a clip of David Cameron at the height of the referendum

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campaign. The British public would be voting if we leave to leave the

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EU and the single market, we then have to negotiate a trade deal from

:23:05.:23:09.

outside with the European Union. There you have it loud and clear on

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BBC television, voting Leave means leaving the single market, not

:23:15.:23:19.

losing access to it but leaving the membership of it. We have George

:23:20.:23:23.

Osborne on tape saying the same thing, so why do you make out Leave

:23:24.:23:28.

voters didn't know what they were voting for? I think people voted

:23:29.:23:33.

Leave for a number of different reasons. For some it might have been

:23:34.:23:37.

immigration, for some it might have been the promise of more money for

:23:38.:23:42.

the NHS, but there are number of countries outside the EU which can

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have full access to the single market, we know about Norway and on.

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But they all have to pay in and have free movement. We can come onto that

:23:52.:23:57.

but what I'm saying is it's not the case that when you are outside the

:23:58.:24:01.

EU you necessarily have to be outside the single market and the

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reason this is important is because this has been a cornerstone of

:24:06.:24:09.

British economic policy for many years, particularly in terms of our

:24:10.:24:16.

inward investment, and the reasons why both manufacturing industry and

:24:17.:24:19.

financial services has invested and created employment in the UK, and I

:24:20.:24:25.

think it would be cavalier to begin this negotiation by closing the door

:24:26.:24:30.

on that. Is it Labour's policy, I know you don't speak for Labour

:24:31.:24:34.

leadership, but is it their policy to remain in the single market? You

:24:35.:24:39.

are right, I'm a backbencher, but it is the policy to have as full access

:24:40.:24:44.

as possible to the single market. At least what we have now in terms of

:24:45.:24:51.

goods and services. You can call it membership or not but that is what

:24:52.:24:54.

Keir Starmer and the Labour Party wants. The old party home affairs

:24:55.:25:02.

select committee is blaming Jeremy Corbyn's lack of leadership for

:25:03.:25:05.

creating a safe space for what they call vile anti-Semitism. Do you

:25:06.:25:12.

agree with that? I think this report should be taken seriously. The

:25:13.:25:16.

atmosphere in the Labour Party, there has been a lot of nasty things

:25:17.:25:21.

said on social media over the past year in particular. I hope we don't

:25:22.:25:26.

make the mistake of shooting the messenger, I hope we take the report

:25:27.:25:30.

seriously and I hope we don't fall into the trap that sometimes I see

:25:31.:25:34.

when these accusations are wielded, that we point to antiracism records

:25:35.:25:40.

and say look at our virtue in our record here, that must mean we

:25:41.:25:45.

cannot be anti-Semitic. Let me be clear about this, pointing to your

:25:46.:25:49.

own sense of righteousness is no excuse for nastiness or cruelty to

:25:50.:25:53.

someone else so we should take this very seriously indeed. Pat McFadden,

:25:54.:25:58.

thank you for being with us this morning.

:25:59.:26:04.

A third runway at Heathrow was first given the green

:26:05.:26:06.

light by Gordon Brown's government in 2009.

:26:07.:26:08.

Almost eight years on, could Theresa May be about finally

:26:09.:26:10.

to allow Heathrow expansion to go ahead?

:26:11.:26:12.

Or could she surprise everyone and back Gatwick instead?

:26:13.:26:16.

Maybe she will come out in favour of both of them!

:26:17.:26:19.

A decision is expected imminently, but it's not straightforward

:26:20.:26:21.

Several members of her cabinet are opposed to any plan to expand

:26:22.:26:25.

Heathrow, and reports suggest as many as 60 of her backbenchers

:26:26.:26:28.

Our reporter, Mark Lobel, has been looking at

:26:29.:26:31.

A growing number of people want to take more flights and some

:26:32.:26:40.

accuse the Government of dragging their feet over

:26:41.:26:42.

All the while, our airports are operating flat-out.

:26:43.:26:53.

So this is fully autonomous, you just have to press the start

:26:54.:26:59.

Matthew Hill is from a business-backed group campaigning

:27:00.:27:05.

We haven't had a full-length runway in London and the south-east

:27:06.:27:09.

Gatwick was built in the 1930s, Heathrow in the 1940s,

:27:10.:27:14.

Heathrow is full, Gatwick will be full in the next few years.

:27:15.:27:20.

Matthew's group claims the lack of a new runway is costing us

:27:21.:27:23.

I think there are huge economic benefits from the construction

:27:24.:27:30.

At the moment, because we don't have that new runway, we don't

:27:31.:27:34.

have that new capacity, the new flights to new markets,

:27:35.:27:36.

we are missing out on ?9.5 billion a year in lost trade.

:27:37.:27:40.

Until we get that decision and we get that runway

:27:41.:27:42.

built, we will continue to lose out on that trade.

:27:43.:27:46.

One airport that's eager to expand is Heathrow,

:27:47.:27:49.

either by expanding this northern runway, the one closest to us here,

:27:50.:27:52.

or, the Airports Commission's favourite proposal, building

:27:53.:27:55.

a new runway parallel to here, about a kilometre that way in place

:27:56.:27:59.

It's said that would offer 40 new destinations from the airport,

:28:00.:28:07.

carry lots more air freight, provide 70,000 new jobs

:28:08.:28:09.

and an overall boost to economic activity in the country,

:28:10.:28:14.

with a promise of no night flights, new environmental and community

:28:15.:28:17.

Heathrow's hub status also services many of the UK's other airports,

:28:18.:28:27.

On average, every year a quarter of a million passengers travel

:28:28.:28:33.

to and from this key exporting region via Heathrow,

:28:34.:28:35.

While we've been very strong supporters of a third runway

:28:36.:28:41.

at Heathrow, we think it's in the best interests

:28:42.:28:43.

of the north-east, we also think it's in the best

:28:44.:28:46.

Our services connect to many, many destinations across the world,

:28:47.:28:55.

and allow businesses to trade right the way across the globe.

:28:56.:29:02.

Gatwick Airport also wants to expand with another runway here.

:29:03.:29:08.

By doubling Gatwick's capacity, the plan would create 22,000

:29:09.:29:11.

new jobs, a vastly expanded short-haul network, and more

:29:12.:29:14.

I think the expansion of Gatwick will bring firstly

:29:15.:29:20.

the certainty of delivery, we can have spades in the ground

:29:21.:29:23.

in this Parliament and we can be operational in the next,

:29:24.:29:29.

so that's within ten years we can have a new runway,

:29:30.:29:31.

and Gatwick can provide the increased capacity at a price

:29:32.:29:34.

Now, before anyone gets carried away, there are of course some

:29:35.:29:42.

people who would far prefer no extra planes in the sky.

:29:43.:29:48.

We already fly more than everybody else,

:29:49.:29:50.

most of these are leisure flights, well who's taking

:29:51.:29:52.

Actually 70% of all of our flights are taken by 15% of the population.

:29:53.:29:58.

It's a wealthy frequent-flying elite.

:29:59.:30:02.

But with approval of a third runway looking likely,

:30:03.:30:08.

could more protests be on the horizon?

:30:09.:30:17.

I can tell you now, they are dusting off the handcuffs, you know,

:30:18.:30:20.

And you have to remember, Heathrow, if they choose to expand

:30:21.:30:23.

Heathrow, you are talking about hundreds of homes

:30:24.:30:25.

being bulldozed, whole communities being eradicated, wiped off the map.

:30:26.:30:28.

Over the last few years, since the last big protest around

:30:29.:30:31.

Heathrow, the relationship between local people around

:30:32.:30:33.

the airport and grass roots climate change activists

:30:34.:30:36.

Those guys are going to get together and just cause merry hell for people

:30:37.:30:41.

The Prime Minister, Theresa May, who once called for a better not

:30:42.:30:50.

bigger Heathrow whilst in opposition, will chair a select

:30:51.:30:53.

group of colleagues expected to decide imminently

:30:54.:30:56.

on whether to build a new runway and where.

:30:57.:30:59.

It will then take months for a national policy statement

:31:00.:31:02.

outlining the new works to get drawn up before MPs get to vote on it,

:31:03.:31:07.

leaving plenty of time for any further opposition to airport

:31:08.:31:11.

I've been joined by two Conservative MPs.

:31:12.:31:19.

Adam Afriyie is opposed to Heathrow expansion,

:31:20.:31:21.

Adam, the independent Daviess report into runway expansion said the case

:31:22.:31:42.

for Heathrow was clear and unanimous in the Commission. 180,000 more

:31:43.:31:48.

jobs, more than ?200 billion in economic benefits. So why are you

:31:49.:31:53.

putting the interests of your constituency before the national

:31:54.:31:57.

interest? I will fight tooth and nail for the interests of my

:31:58.:31:59.

constituents, but the wonderful thing about the binary choice

:32:00.:32:03.

between Heathrow and Gatwick is that it is not in the regional or

:32:04.:32:08.

consumers' interests to expand Heathrow. The Daviess report has

:32:09.:32:16.

already been largely undermined. There are 17 reasons why it doesn't

:32:17.:32:22.

work and is wrong. Number one, they said Gatwick would not have 42

:32:23.:32:29.

million passengers until 2024. This year, they already have 42 million

:32:30.:32:33.

passengers. Gatwick have increased their destinations to 20 now, which

:32:34.:32:38.

they didn't expect either. The Davies review was good in its day,

:32:39.:32:43.

but is it had a limited remit. They were talking about Heathrow as a

:32:44.:32:50.

hub, but the airline industry has changed. We have to pay to this for

:32:51.:32:55.

more than 15 years. The government White Paper in 2003 suggested we

:32:56.:33:04.

should expand Heathrow. ?20 million and 12 years later, the Davis Report

:33:05.:33:09.

came to the same conclusion. We are never going to get any form of

:33:10.:33:12.

progress on this is competing MPs are allowed to frustrate the

:33:13.:33:18.

process. You could have had about three people who are Gatwick MPs

:33:19.:33:23.

arguing very passionately against Adam's desire to expand Gatwick. The

:33:24.:33:29.

point is, we are in a paralysis. We are having a theological debate that

:33:30.:33:34.

will last decades, and Heathrow is... Why Heathrow? Why not expand

:33:35.:33:40.

Gatwick and increase the capacity of our regional airports? I thought the

:33:41.:33:44.

government's strategy was to rebalance the economy in favour of

:33:45.:33:48.

the North and the Midlands. If you listen to northern MPs, or people

:33:49.:33:53.

representing Northern or Scottish interests, they all say they want to

:33:54.:33:59.

increase Heathrow. The SNP said last week they wanted Heathrow to be

:34:00.:34:03.

expanded. If you want to help the economy is in those areas, listen to

:34:04.:34:07.

what they are saying. They are saying expand Heathrow. 32 regional

:34:08.:34:15.

airports support the expansion of Heathrow to maintain its position as

:34:16.:34:19.

one of the global hubs. Even the Scottish Government agrees with

:34:20.:34:24.

expanding Heathrow. They all say, we want to be a serious player in

:34:25.:34:30.

aviation. We need a global hub, and that is Heathrow. The interesting

:34:31.:34:33.

thing is that there is no argument that Heathrow is the UK hub, and no

:34:34.:34:38.

one is trying to get rid of that. But if you are adding a single new

:34:39.:34:43.

runway, is it better to add it at Heathrow or Gatwick, and for me it

:34:44.:34:59.

is overwhelmingly clear. Heathrow is the most expensive airport in the

:35:00.:35:03.

world. If you add another runway at taxpayer expense, you make it even

:35:04.:35:05.

more expensive. So flight prices go up. Whether or not Heathrow could

:35:06.:35:07.

ever be delivered is another question. My own Borough Council as

:35:08.:35:11.

part of the legal action... So even if the decision is made, we may not

:35:12.:35:17.

see the capacity. At Gatwick is dirt cheap. It can be delivered within

:35:18.:35:24.

ten years. But it is not a global hub airport. But the hub that we

:35:25.:35:28.

have at Heathrow is perfectly adequate for the next ten or 15

:35:29.:35:34.

years. It is running at 99% capacity. Every airline, the new

:35:35.:35:41.

planes being ordered... The airline have decided that the hub capacity

:35:42.:35:45.

is sufficient and they are moving to a different model. Let me ask you

:35:46.:35:53.

this. We haven't built a major new runway in London and the south-east

:35:54.:35:59.

for 60 years. Since 1946, so 70 years. Why not expand Heathrow and

:36:00.:36:06.

Gatwick? Personally, I would do both. If we are serious about having

:36:07.:36:10.

international trade and Golding links to the outside world,

:36:11.:36:16.

especially after Brexit, we have to get serious about aviation and

:36:17.:36:21.

accept that we need more capacity. I think it's scandalous we haven't

:36:22.:36:24.

managed to expand capacity for 70 years, when we think of the economic

:36:25.:36:28.

growth that has happened in that time. If we want to build a

:36:29.:36:33.

prosperous economy, it seems bizarre we are reluctant to increase

:36:34.:36:37.

aviation. Whatever the decision, do you think there will be a free vote

:36:38.:36:42.

on this? I think this is one area where I think the government does

:36:43.:36:55.

need to take a lead, and I hope they will make a rational choice for

:36:56.:36:57.

Gatwick. If the government comes out for Heathrow, will you defy the

:36:58.:37:03.

whips? Yes. I will always vote for Heathrow, because it doesn't make

:37:04.:37:09.

economic sense. If MPs are happy at the prospect of Heathrow... Does the

:37:10.:37:14.

figure strike a chord with you? I would hope there would be more, but

:37:15.:37:19.

it depends on the political position of Labour and the SNP. I hope that

:37:20.:37:23.

the government decides inclusively... Ad is doing what he

:37:24.:37:29.

feels is the best for his constituents. I think 60 is way off

:37:30.:37:34.

the mark. I don't know what journalists suggested 60 Tory MPs.

:37:35.:37:42.

My sense is that it is probably about 20 hard-core people in the

:37:43.:37:45.

House of Commons. I think it will be a free vote. If it is 20 hard-core,

:37:46.:37:53.

you will need Labour to get it through? Labour MPs were very keen

:37:54.:37:57.

on supporting Heathrow, in my experience. It may be delayed again,

:37:58.:38:04.

of course. After 70 years, what's another week here or there!

:38:05.:38:07.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now

:38:08.:01:11.

We say goodbye to viewers has to be some degree of allowances

:01:12.:01:15.

in return for renewing vehicles. You.

:01:16.:01:18.

Will MPs get a vote on Theresa May's Brexit plans?

:01:19.:01:24.

Why are the Lib Dems throwing everything they've got

:01:25.:01:27.

at the by-election in David Cameron's old constituency?

:01:28.:01:29.

And what will happen next in the US presidential election?

:01:30.:01:32.

So this cross-party push to make the government come forward with the

:01:33.:01:57.

outlines of this negotiating strategy for Brexit, and put it to

:01:58.:02:01.

the Commons in particular, has that got traction? It has in that it is

:02:02.:02:06.

attracting a wide range of support in the House of Commons, which is

:02:07.:02:11.

now the crucial forum for these debates. Theresa May has said there

:02:12.:02:18.

will not be a vote before she triggers article 50. So we have two

:02:19.:02:22.

assume there will not be a vote. With this whole debate, there is a

:02:23.:02:25.

myth going about that we don't know much about what Brexit means. We

:02:26.:02:31.

know a heck of a lot about what it means. We know that when she opens

:02:32.:02:37.

her mouth, the pound falls. The pound is in a different position to

:02:38.:02:41.

the other Brexiteers. There is an accountability issue in terms of

:02:42.:02:45.

what the House of Commons will have a say in, and that could become a

:02:46.:02:51.

big story. Nicola Sturgeon has supported a second referendum. We

:02:52.:02:55.

know a huge amount, all of it dire, and I hope that MPs do get votes at

:02:56.:03:06.

some point. I suspect they will. For example, we are going to get one on

:03:07.:03:09.

this so-called repeal act, which is an act of consolidation. There will

:03:10.:03:13.

be others. We cannot leave the European Union without votes, but I

:03:14.:03:18.

don't think we will get one on Article 50. What they seem to be

:03:19.:03:22.

pushing for at the moment is a vote on the government's bargaining

:03:23.:03:26.

position. They are not saying they want all the details, although

:03:27.:03:36.

Labour has asked 70 questions. The Commons needs to improve them, it is

:03:37.:03:41.

said. Is that fair? It is absurd. You don't go into negotiating with

:03:42.:03:48.

Brussels talking about what was published in all the national

:03:49.:03:51.

newspapers last week about what our red lines are. I don't remember any

:03:52.:03:57.

other international trade deal being done in the public eye. Theresa May

:03:58.:04:04.

hasn't said a red line on immigration. She has uttered those

:04:05.:04:09.

words. There are lots of other intricate details. Of course they

:04:10.:04:14.

are, but we broadly know her position. And broadly we know the EU

:04:15.:04:21.

position. Broad knowledge is not the same as specific. The point is that

:04:22.:04:24.

the British Parliament, all these people who are so obsessed with the

:04:25.:04:29.

British Parliament having its say and democracy, they didn't care for

:04:30.:04:33.

very many years when they happily handed over powers. The Lisbon

:04:34.:04:38.

Treaty, which is like a new constitution. It handed over far

:04:39.:04:45.

more powers again and again. And there was an express vote not to

:04:46.:04:48.

have a referendum for the British people. But we have now given our

:04:49.:04:54.

say. Putting aside whether you are for or against, is it realistic that

:04:55.:04:57.

the government will come forward with some kind of green paper all

:04:58.:05:01.

white paper that gives a broad outline of the government's Brexit

:05:02.:05:07.

position? When you have the majority of between ten and 20, there is one

:05:08.:05:13.

thing you have to do as Prime Minister, and that is to learn to

:05:14.:05:18.

count. Theresa May hasn't done that. There will be a vote in the House of

:05:19.:05:22.

Commons. Whether it's binding or not, because MPs will make one. What

:05:23.:05:29.

will vote be on? They will demand that the government spelt out its

:05:30.:05:34.

Brexit strategy. It will not be binding, unless they tried to

:05:35.:05:38.

shoehorn something onto government legislation, which I don't think

:05:39.:05:43.

they will do. They will be unsure. The will of the House of Commons

:05:44.:05:47.

will express itself simply because there is a majority in the House of

:05:48.:05:53.

Commons, a clear one, for soft Brexit. There will be a vote, the

:05:54.:05:57.

government will lose it, and then it is up to Theresa May whether to pay

:05:58.:06:02.

any attention to it. But she has got herself into this problem because

:06:03.:06:07.

she has adopted the views of the 52 against the 48, dropping any sort of

:06:08.:06:11.

language about consensus and bringing the country back together.

:06:12.:06:18.

If the Commons votes against the government on this, it will be seen

:06:19.:06:22.

as a major setback for the government and the Prime Minister.

:06:23.:06:27.

Yes, seismic. Of course she can ignore it if you are talking about

:06:28.:06:31.

it in relation to triggering Article 50. In a way, it happened with

:06:32.:06:37.

Maastricht as well. The House of Commons will move centrestage, and

:06:38.:06:41.

that context is that tiny majority. She has a smaller majority than John

:06:42.:06:50.

Major had in the 90s, and it's going to be far more turbulent than

:06:51.:06:52.

perhaps her calm, assured a facade suggests. Theresa May is a serious,

:06:53.:07:00.

fully formed politician, with six years in the Home Office, but she

:07:01.:07:05.

has never had experience of the Treasury or the Foreign Office. This

:07:06.:07:09.

is massive, massive politics, and I don't think she's ready for it. I

:07:10.:07:15.

don't blame her for that. If it comes to a conflict between the

:07:16.:07:20.

result of the referendum and the position Parliament has taken, there

:07:21.:07:25.

is a chance she will call another election? Effectively, it will be a

:07:26.:07:29.

vote of no-confidence in her government. She should call another

:07:30.:07:35.

election. I think the British people be very clear. The remainers I know

:07:36.:07:39.

have all completely accept it that we are going to have this. There is

:07:40.:07:43.

a mandate for leaves and the Prime Minister should get on with it. I

:07:44.:07:47.

think the British people will not take kindly to any MP who gets in

:07:48.:07:51.

the way. We have two by-elections this week. One in Whitley and one in

:07:52.:08:00.

Batley and Spen, the seat held by Jo Cox. The main parties are not

:08:01.:08:03.

competing in that because of the appalling circumstances in which her

:08:04.:08:11.

terrible murder took place. The Lib Dems are coming big in Witney. They

:08:12.:08:17.

came fourth in the general election, rather forepaws, that they are

:08:18.:08:21.

bigging themselves up in this one. That wise? They've got to do

:08:22.:08:25.

something to get themselves attention. They need to get noticed.

:08:26.:08:34.

But what they have in their favour is that the constituency Witney

:08:35.:08:39.

voted 53% remain and 47% leave in the EU referendum. So they will be

:08:40.:08:44.

trying to get the remain a vote. This is the first test of their

:08:45.:08:49.

remain a strategy. It is interesting that Theresa May bothered to come

:08:50.:08:55.

out and campaign on Saturdays. There she is. The Prime Minister and the

:08:56.:09:03.

former Prime Minister out campaigning. They are not going to

:09:04.:09:09.

win, that they would have to come second. David Cameron had a 60% vote

:09:10.:09:16.

there, for goodness sake. The Tory candidate was a Leave campaign. The

:09:17.:09:21.

fact she is out campaigning isn't a sign of lack of confidence. She must

:09:22.:09:26.

be confident they will win, otherwise she wouldn't be seen near

:09:27.:09:31.

the place. OK, the American election. Just when you thought it

:09:32.:09:36.

couldn't get crazier. We are familiar with drug tests for

:09:37.:09:41.

athletes and cyclists, and all sorts of things in sport. But Mr Trump has

:09:42.:09:45.

now called for a drug test before the third and final debate coming up

:09:46.:09:50.

this Wednesday. Am I making it up? No, I'm not.

:09:51.:09:53.

I think we should take a drug test prior to the debate.

:09:54.:09:56.

We should take a drug test prior, because I don't know

:09:57.:10:01.

what's going on with her, but at the beginning of her last

:10:02.:10:05.

debate she was all pumped up at the beginning,

:10:06.:10:11.

and at the end it was like, uuh, take me down.

:10:12.:10:14.

So I think we should take a drug test.

:10:15.:10:18.

He's also talking about the election being rigged as well, which may be

:10:19.:10:35.

ground work for making his excuses. But here's the issue. That was

:10:36.:10:41.

yesterday. With everything that went before, overnight, the latest

:10:42.:10:46.

Washington post-ABC News poll. Mrs Clinton is ahead by only four

:10:47.:10:50.

points. It's almost within the margin of error. Down from about ten

:10:51.:10:55.

points after sexual assault gate. The simple reason why Trump got the

:10:56.:11:03.

Republican nomination, beating 50 or 60 Republican moderates, why he's

:11:04.:11:08.

been doing pretty well in the polls until the last two of weeks, people

:11:09.:11:12.

buy into the anti-establishment thing. All you need to do is stand

:11:13.:11:17.

there and say, of course they would say that, because they are all

:11:18.:11:20.

crooked. That is the single biggest thing he's got going for him. The

:11:21.:11:29.

Washington Post - ABC News poll suggests the whole business of the

:11:30.:11:33.

nude tapes actually haven't made that much difference. -- huge tape.

:11:34.:11:46.

-- lewd tape. Once you position yourself, you can almost say

:11:47.:11:56.

anything you like, and then respond by saying, the elite would say that,

:11:57.:12:00.

wouldn't they? You cannot really deal with that as an argument,

:12:01.:12:05.

because you would just say, oh, that's you lot, you would say that.

:12:06.:12:11.

There is a point where it becomes absurd, though, and I think this

:12:12.:12:16.

current thing on doping tests is laugh out loud stuff. That surely

:12:17.:12:23.

can't help him. You cannot think, what are the undecideds thinking

:12:24.:12:30.

about this? There was a lot of information, not in the century, but

:12:31.:12:33.

some information is more e-mails from Mrs Clinton are leaked. They

:12:34.:12:42.

are showing her to be very much a globalisation person, very close to

:12:43.:12:51.

Wall Street, talking about why... As Donald Trump said last week, it was

:12:52.:12:58.

good to have the shackles off. This is him with the shackles off. The

:12:59.:13:03.

reality is, all the stuff about Hillary not being very likeable and

:13:04.:13:08.

dishonest, that is already factored into the polls. All the stuff about

:13:09.:13:13.

Donald Trump being lecherous and racist is already factored in. What

:13:14.:13:17.

still blows my mind is that people are still undecided! He's given

:13:18.:13:23.

Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio. It is going to be very interesting to

:13:24.:13:25.

see. Jo Coburn has more Daily Politics

:13:26.:13:27.

tomorrow at midday on BBC Two. I'll be back next Sunday

:13:28.:13:31.

at 11am here on BBC One. Remember - if it's Sunday,

:13:32.:13:33.

it's the Sunday Politics.

:13:34.:13:38.

Andrew Neil is joined by secretary of state for Scotland David Mundell MP and Conservative MPs Adam Afriyie and Kwasi Kwarteng. Panellists include Julia Hartley-Brewer, Tom Newton Dunn and Steve Richards.


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