Browse content similar to 27/11/2016. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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It's Sunday morning and this is the Sunday Politics. | :00:39. | :00:42. | |
Was Fidel Castro a revolutionary hero or a murderous dictator? | :00:43. | :00:47. | |
After the Cuban leader's death, politicians divide over his legacy. | :00:48. | :00:51. | |
Can the NHS in England find billions of pounds' worth of efficiency | :00:52. | :00:56. | |
The Shadow Health Secretary joins me live. | :00:57. | :01:01. | |
Should we have a second Brexit referendum on the terms | :01:02. | :01:04. | |
of the eventual withdrawal deal that's struck with the EU? | :01:05. | :01:08. | |
Former Lib Dem leader Paddy Ashdown and former Conservative cabinet | :01:09. | :01:11. | |
minister Owen Paterson go head-to-head. | :01:12. | :01:16. | |
In London this week, how did the capital fare | :01:17. | :01:19. | |
And with me, Tom Newton Dunn, Isabel Oakeshott and Steve Richards. | :01:20. | :01:37. | |
They'll be tweeting throughout the programme | :01:38. | :01:40. | |
Political leaders around the world have been reacting to the news | :01:41. | :01:46. | |
of the death of Fidel Castro, the Cuban revolutionary who came | :01:47. | :01:49. | |
to power in 1959 and ushered in a Marxist revolution. | :01:50. | :01:52. | |
Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson described the former leader | :01:53. | :01:58. | |
as an "historic if controversial figure" and said his death marked | :01:59. | :02:01. | |
Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said Castro was "a champion of social | :02:02. | :02:05. | |
justice" who had "seen off a lot of US presidents" | :02:06. | :02:07. | |
President-elect Donald Trump described the former Cuban leader | :02:08. | :02:12. | |
as a "brutal dictator", adding that he hoped his death | :02:13. | :02:15. | |
would begin a new era "in which the wonderful Cuban people | :02:16. | :02:18. | |
finally live in the freedom they so richly deserve". | :02:19. | :02:23. | |
Meanwhile, the President of the European Commission, | :02:24. | :02:25. | |
Jean-Claude Juncker, said the controversial leader | :02:26. | :02:28. | |
was "a hero for many" but "his legacy will be judged | :02:29. | :02:30. | |
I guess we had worked that out ourselves. What do you make of the | :02:31. | :02:46. | |
reactions so far across the political divide? Predictable. And I | :02:47. | :02:50. | |
noticed that Jeremy Corbyn has come in for criticism for his tribute to | :02:51. | :02:58. | |
Castro. But I think it was the right thing for him to do. We all know he | :02:59. | :03:02. | |
was an admirer. He could have sat there for eight hours in his house, | :03:03. | :03:06. | |
agonising over some bland statement which didn't alienate the many | :03:07. | :03:09. | |
people who want to wade into attacked Castro. It would have been | :03:10. | :03:13. | |
inauthentic and would have just added to the sort of mainstream | :03:14. | :03:18. | |
consensus, and I think he was right to say what he believed in this | :03:19. | :03:21. | |
respect. Elsewhere, it has been wholly predictable that there would | :03:22. | :03:27. | |
be this device, because he divided opinion in such an emotive way. | :03:28. | :03:33. | |
Steve, I take your point about authenticity and it might have | :03:34. | :03:36. | |
looked a bit lame for Jeremy Corbyn to pretend that he had no affection | :03:37. | :03:42. | |
for Fidel Castro at all, but do you think he made a bit of an error | :03:43. | :03:46. | |
dismissing Castro's record, the negative side of it as just a floor? | :03:47. | :03:50. | |
He could have acknowledged in more elaborate terms the huge costs. He | :03:51. | :03:57. | |
wanted to go on about the health and education, which if you actually | :03:58. | :04:00. | |
look up the indices on that, they are good relative to other | :04:01. | :04:03. | |
countries. But they have come at such a huge cost. He was not a | :04:04. | :04:10. | |
champion of criminal justice. If he had done that, it would have been | :04:11. | :04:13. | |
utterly inauthentic. He doesn't believe it. And he would have | :04:14. | :04:20. | |
thought there would be many other people focusing on all the epic | :04:21. | :04:24. | |
failings. So he focused on what he believed. There are times when | :04:25. | :04:30. | |
Corbyn's prominence in the media world now as leader widens the | :04:31. | :04:35. | |
debate in an interesting and important way. I am not aware of any | :04:36. | :04:42. | |
criticisms that Mr Corbyn has ever announced about Mr Castro. There | :04:43. | :04:54. | |
were four words in his statement yesterday which is spin doctor would | :04:55. | :04:57. | |
have forced him to say, for all his flaws. He was on this Cuban | :04:58. | :05:06. | |
solidarity committee, which didn't exist to criticise Castro. It | :05:07. | :05:10. | |
existed to help protect Castro from those, particularly the Americans, | :05:11. | :05:14. | |
who were trying to undermine him. And Corbyn made a big deal yesterday | :05:15. | :05:19. | |
saying he has always called out human rights abuses all over the | :05:20. | :05:24. | |
world. But he said that in general, I call out human rights abuses. He | :05:25. | :05:29. | |
never said, I have called out human rights abuses in Cuba. In the weeks | :05:30. | :05:36. | |
ahead, more will come out about what these human rights abuses were. The | :05:37. | :05:43. | |
lid will come off what was actually happening. Some well authenticated | :05:44. | :05:50. | |
stories are pretty horrendous. I was speaking to a journalist who was | :05:51. | :05:56. | |
working there in the 1990s, who gave me vivid examples of that, and there | :05:57. | :06:03. | |
will be more to come. I still go back to, when a major figure diet | :06:04. | :06:07. | |
and you are a leader who has admired but major figure, you have to say | :06:08. | :06:13. | |
it. That is the trap he has fallen into. He has proved every criticism | :06:14. | :06:29. | |
that he is a duck old ideologue. But he is not the only one. Prime | :06:30. | :06:36. | |
Minister Trudeau was so if uses that I wondered if they were going to | :06:37. | :06:42. | |
open up a book of condolences. I think it reinforces Corbyn's failing | :06:43. | :06:47. | |
brand. It may be authentic, but authentic isn't working for him. | :06:48. | :06:50. | |
When I was driving, I heard Trevor Phillips, who is a Blairite, saying | :06:51. | :06:57. | |
the record was mixed and there were a lot of things to admire as well as | :06:58. | :07:02. | |
all the terrible things. So it is quite nuanced. But if you are a | :07:03. | :07:06. | |
leader issuing a sound bite, there is no space for new ones. You either | :07:07. | :07:11. | |
decide to go for the consensus, which is to set up on the whole, it | :07:12. | :07:17. | |
was a brutal dictatorship. Or you say, here is an extraordinary figure | :07:18. | :07:21. | |
worthy of admiration. In my view, he was right to say what he believed. | :07:22. | :07:26. | |
There was still a dilemma for the British government over who they | :07:27. | :07:29. | |
sent to the funeral. Do they sent nobody, do they say and Boris | :07:30. | :07:37. | |
Johnson as a post-ironic statement? There is now a post-Castro Cuba to | :07:38. | :07:44. | |
deal with. Trump was quite diplomatic about post-Castro Cuba. | :07:45. | :07:48. | |
And Boris Johnson's statement was restrained. The thing about Mr | :07:49. | :07:57. | |
Castro was the longevity, 50 years of keeping Marxism on the island. | :07:58. | :08:00. | |
That was what made it so fascinating. | :08:01. | :08:01. | |
Before the last election, George Osborne promised the NHS | :08:02. | :08:05. | |
in England a real-terms funding boost of ?8 billion per year by 2020 | :08:06. | :08:08. | |
on the understanding that NHS bosses would also find ?22 billion worth | :08:09. | :08:11. | |
Since last autumn, NHS managers have been drawing up what they're calling | :08:12. | :08:18. | |
"Sustainability and Transformation Plans" to make these savings, | :08:19. | :08:21. | |
but some of the proposals are already running into local | :08:22. | :08:28. | |
opposition, while Labour say they amount to huge cuts to the NHS. | :08:29. | :08:31. | |
Help is on the way for an elderly person in need in Hertfordshire. | :08:32. | :08:37. | |
But east of England ambulance call operators | :08:38. | :08:40. | |
they're sending an early intervention vehicle | :08:41. | :08:44. | |
with a council-employed occupational therapist on board. | :08:45. | :08:52. | |
It's being piloted here for over 65s with | :08:53. | :08:54. | |
When they arrive, a paramedic judges if the patient can be | :08:55. | :08:59. | |
treated immediately at home without a trip to hospital. | :09:00. | :09:02. | |
Around 80% of patients have been treated this way, | :09:03. | :09:05. | |
taking the strain off urgently-needed hospital beds, | :09:06. | :09:07. | |
So the early intervention team has assessed the patient and decided | :09:08. | :09:14. | |
The key to successful integration for Hertfordshire being able | :09:15. | :09:27. | |
to collaboratively look at how we use our resources, | :09:28. | :09:29. | |
to have pooled budgets, to allow us to understand | :09:30. | :09:31. | |
where spend is, and to let us make conscientious decisions about how | :09:32. | :09:34. | |
best to use that money, to come up with ideas to problems | :09:35. | :09:39. | |
that sit between our organisations, to look at things collaboratively. | :09:40. | :09:41. | |
This Hertfordshire hospital is also a good example of how | :09:42. | :09:44. | |
You won't find an A unit or overnight beds here any more. | :09:45. | :09:51. | |
The closest ones are 20 minutes down the road. | :09:52. | :09:57. | |
What's left is nurse-led care in an NHS-built hospital. | :09:58. | :09:59. | |
Despite a politically toxic change, this reconfiguration went | :10:00. | :10:02. | |
through after broad public and political consultation | :10:03. | :10:05. | |
with hospital clinicians and GPs on board. | :10:06. | :10:09. | |
It's a notable achievement that's surely of interest to 60% of NHS | :10:10. | :10:12. | |
trusts in England that reported a deficit at the end of September. | :10:13. | :10:19. | |
It's not just here that the NHS needs to save money and provide | :10:20. | :10:22. | |
The Government is going to pour in an extra ?8 billion into the NHS | :10:23. | :10:28. | |
in England, but it has demanded ?22 billion | :10:29. | :10:35. | |
worth of efficiencies across the country. | :10:36. | :10:37. | |
In order to deliver that, the NHS has created 44 health | :10:38. | :10:39. | |
and care partnerships, and each one will provide | :10:40. | :10:42. | |
a sustainability and transformation plan, or STP, to integrate care, | :10:43. | :10:46. | |
provide better services and save money. | :10:47. | :10:50. | |
So far, 33 of these 44 regional plans, drawn up by senior people | :10:51. | :10:54. | |
in the health service and local government, | :10:55. | :10:56. | |
The NHS has been through five years of severely constrained spending | :10:57. | :11:03. | |
growth, and there are another 4-5 years on the way at least. | :11:04. | :11:07. | |
STPs themselves are an attempt to deal in a planned way | :11:08. | :11:13. | |
But with plans to close some A units and reduce the number | :11:14. | :11:19. | |
of hospital beds, there's likely to be a tough political battle | :11:20. | :11:24. | |
ahead, with many MPs already up in arms about proposed | :11:25. | :11:28. | |
This Tory backbencher is concerned about the local plans for his | :11:29. | :11:32. | |
I wouldn't call it an efficiency if you are proposing to close | :11:33. | :11:40. | |
all of the beds which are currently provided for those coming out | :11:41. | :11:44. | |
of the acute sector who are elderly and looking | :11:45. | :11:46. | |
That's not a cut, it's not an efficiency saving, | :11:47. | :11:49. | |
All 44 STPs should be published in a month's time, | :11:50. | :11:58. | |
But even before that, they dominated this week's PMQs. | :11:59. | :12:03. | |
The Government's sustainability and transformation plans | :12:04. | :12:06. | |
for the National Health Service hide ?22 billion of cuts. | :12:07. | :12:11. | |
The National Health Service is indeed looking for savings | :12:12. | :12:14. | |
within the NHS, which will be reinvested in the NHS. | :12:15. | :12:19. | |
There will be no escape from angry MPs for the Health Secretary either. | :12:20. | :12:23. | |
Well, I have spoken to the Secretary of State just this week | :12:24. | :12:26. | |
about the importance of community hospitals in general, | :12:27. | :12:30. | |
These are proposals out to consultation. | :12:31. | :12:36. | |
What could happen if these plans get blocked? | :12:37. | :12:41. | |
If STPs cannot be made to work, the planned changes don't come | :12:42. | :12:45. | |
to pass, then the NHS will see over time a sort of unplanned | :12:46. | :12:50. | |
deterioration and services becoming unstable and service | :12:51. | :12:51. | |
The NHS barely featured in this week's Autumn Statement | :12:52. | :12:58. | |
but the Prime Minister insisted beforehand that STPs | :12:59. | :13:05. | |
are in the interests of local people. | :13:06. | :13:07. | |
Her Government's support will now be critical for NHS England | :13:08. | :13:09. | |
to push through these controversial regional plans, | :13:10. | :13:11. | |
which will soon face public scrutiny. | :13:12. | :13:17. | |
We did ask the Department of Health for an interview, | :13:18. | :13:22. | |
I've been joined by the Shadow Health Secretary, | :13:23. | :13:26. | |
Do you accept that the NHS is capable of making ?22 billion of | :13:27. | :13:43. | |
efficiency savings? Well, we are very sceptical, as are number of | :13:44. | :13:46. | |
independent organisations about the ability of the NHS to find 22 | :13:47. | :13:51. | |
billion of efficiencies without that affecting front line care. When you | :13:52. | :13:55. | |
drill down into the 22 billion, based on the information we have | :13:56. | :13:59. | |
been given, and there hasn't been much information, we can see that | :14:00. | :14:02. | |
some of it will come from cutting the budget which go to community | :14:03. | :14:06. | |
pharmacies, which could lead, according to ministers, to 3000 | :14:07. | :14:10. | |
pharmacies closing, which we believe will increase demands on A and | :14:11. | :14:14. | |
GPs, and also that a lot of these changes which are being proposed, | :14:15. | :14:19. | |
which was the focus of the package, we think will mean service cuts at a | :14:20. | :14:27. | |
local level. Do they? The chief executive of NHS England says these | :14:28. | :14:33. | |
efficiency plans are "Incredibly important". He used to work from | :14:34. | :14:36. | |
Labour. The independent King's Fund calls them "The best hope to improve | :14:37. | :14:43. | |
health and care services. There is no plan B". On the sustainable | :14:44. | :14:50. | |
transformation plans, which will be across England to link up physical | :14:51. | :14:53. | |
health, mental health and social care, for those services to | :14:54. | :14:57. | |
collaborate more closely together and move beyond the fragmented | :14:58. | :15:00. | |
system we have at the moment is important. It seems that the ground | :15:01. | :15:07. | |
has shifted. It has moved into filling financial gaps. As we know, | :15:08. | :15:11. | |
the NHS is going through the biggest financial squeeze in its history. By | :15:12. | :15:15. | |
2018, per head spending on the NHS will be falling. If you want to | :15:16. | :15:19. | |
redesign services for the long term in a local area, you need to put the | :15:20. | :15:25. | |
money in. So of course, getting these services working better | :15:26. | :15:28. | |
together and having a greater strategic oversight, which we would | :15:29. | :15:31. | |
have had if we had not got rid of strategic health authority is in the | :15:32. | :15:37. | |
last Parliament. But this is not an attempt to save 22 billion, this is | :15:38. | :15:42. | |
an attempt to spend 22 billion more successfully, don't you accept that? | :15:43. | :15:48. | |
Simon Stevens said we need 8 billion, and we need to find 22 | :15:49. | :15:56. | |
billion of savings. You have to spend 22 billion more efficiently. | :15:57. | :16:01. | |
But the Government have not given that 8 billion to the NHS which they | :16:02. | :16:06. | |
said they would. They said they would do it by 2020. But they have | :16:07. | :16:11. | |
changed the definitions of spending so NHS England will get 8 billion by | :16:12. | :16:16. | |
2020, but they have cut the public health budgets by about 4 million by | :16:17. | :16:23. | |
20 20. The budget that going to initiatives to tackle sexually | :16:24. | :16:26. | |
transmitted diseases, to tackle smoking have been cut back but the | :16:27. | :16:31. | |
commissioning of things like school nurses and health visitors have been | :16:32. | :16:35. | |
cut back as well. Simon Stevens said he can only deliver that five-year | :16:36. | :16:40. | |
project if there is a radical upgrade in public health, which the | :16:41. | :16:43. | |
Government have failed on, and if we deal with social care, and this week | :16:44. | :16:49. | |
there was an... I understand that, but if you don't think the | :16:50. | :16:56. | |
efficiency drive can free up 22 billion to take us to 30 billion by | :16:57. | :17:01. | |
2020, where would you get the money from? I have been in this post now | :17:02. | :17:06. | |
for five or six weeks and I want to have a big consultation with | :17:07. | :17:09. | |
everybody who works in the health sector, as well as patients, carers | :17:10. | :17:15. | |
and families. Though you don't know? I think it would be surprised if I | :17:16. | :17:22. | |
had an arbitrary figure this soon into the job. Your party said they | :17:23. | :17:28. | |
expected election of spring by this year, you need to have some idea by | :17:29. | :17:32. | |
now, you inherited a portfolio from Diane Abbott, did she have no idea? | :17:33. | :17:38. | |
To govern is to make choices and we would make different choices. The | :17:39. | :17:42. | |
budget last year scored billions of giveaways in things like | :17:43. | :17:49. | |
co-operating -- corporation tax. What I do want to do... Is work on a | :17:50. | :18:01. | |
plan and the general election, whenever it comes, next year or in | :18:02. | :18:07. | |
2020 or in between, to have costed plan for the NHS. But your party is | :18:08. | :18:11. | |
committed to balancing the books on current spending, that is currently | :18:12. | :18:16. | |
John McDonnell, the Shadow Chancellor's position. What we are | :18:17. | :18:22. | |
talking about, this extra 30 billion, that is essentially current | :18:23. | :18:26. | |
spending so if it doesn't come from efficiency savings, where does the | :18:27. | :18:30. | |
money come from? Some of it is also capital. Mainly current spending. If | :18:31. | :18:37. | |
you look at the details of the OBR, they have switched a million from | :18:38. | :18:48. | |
the capital into revenue. Why -- how do you balance spending? | :18:49. | :18:52. | |
That is why we need to have a debate. Every time we ask for | :18:53. | :19:01. | |
Labour's policy, we are always told me a debate. Surely it is time to | :19:02. | :19:05. | |
give some idea of what you stand for? There's huge doubts about the | :19:06. | :19:09. | |
Government 's policy on this. You are the opposition, how would you do | :19:10. | :19:14. | |
it? I want to work with John McDonnell to find a package to give | :19:15. | :19:18. | |
the NHS the money it needs, but of course our Shadow Chancellor, like | :19:19. | :19:21. | |
any Shadow Chancellor at this stage in the cycle, will want to see what | :19:22. | :19:25. | |
the books look like a head of an election before making commitments. | :19:26. | :19:32. | |
I am clear that the Labour Party has to go into the next general election | :19:33. | :19:35. | |
with a clear policy to give the NHS the funding it needs because it has | :19:36. | :19:37. | |
been going through the largest financial squeeze in its history. | :19:38. | :19:43. | |
You say Labour will always give the NHS the money it needs, that is not | :19:44. | :19:48. | |
a policy, it is a blank cheque. It is an indication of our commitment | :19:49. | :19:53. | |
to the NHS. Under this Conservative government, the NHS has been getting | :19:54. | :19:57. | |
a 1% increase. Throughout its history it has usually have about | :19:58. | :20:02. | |
4%. Under the last Labour government it was getting 4%, before that | :20:03. | :20:07. | |
substantially more. We think the NHS should get more but I don't have | :20:08. | :20:10. | |
access to the NHS books in front of me. The public thinks there needs to | :20:11. | :20:19. | |
be more money spent on health but they also think that should go cap | :20:20. | :20:23. | |
in hand with the money being more efficiently spent, which is what | :20:24. | :20:29. | |
this efficiency drive is designed to release 22 billion. Do you have an | :20:30. | :20:34. | |
efficiency drive if it is not the Government's one? Of course we | :20:35. | :20:40. | |
agree. We agree the NHS should be more efficient, we want to see | :20:41. | :20:44. | |
productivity increased. Do know how to do that? One way is through | :20:45. | :20:51. | |
investments, maintenance, but there is a 5 million maintenance backlog. | :20:52. | :20:58. | |
One of the most high risk backlogs is something like 730 million. They | :20:59. | :21:05. | |
are going to switch the capital spend into revenue spend. I believe | :21:06. | :21:09. | |
that when you invest in maintenance and capital in the NHS, that | :21:10. | :21:12. | |
contribute to increasing its productivity. You are now talking | :21:13. | :21:16. | |
about 5 billion the maintenance, the chief executive says it needs 30 | :21:17. | :21:23. | |
billion more by 2020 as a minimum so that 35 billion. You want to spend | :21:24. | :21:29. | |
more on social care, another for 5 billion on that so we have proper | :21:30. | :21:33. | |
care in the community. By that calculation I'm up to about 40 | :21:34. | :21:37. | |
billion, which is fine, except where do you get the and balance the | :21:38. | :21:42. | |
account at the same time? We will have to come up with a plan for that | :21:43. | :21:46. | |
and that's why I will work with our Shadow Treasury team to come up with | :21:47. | :21:50. | |
that plan when they head into the general election. At the moment we | :21:51. | :21:54. | |
are saying to the NHS, sorry, we are not going to give you the | :21:55. | :21:58. | |
investment, which is why we are seeing patient care deteriorating. | :21:59. | :22:06. | |
The staff are doing incredible things but 180,000 are waiting in | :22:07. | :22:11. | |
A beyond four hours, record levels of people delayed in beds in | :22:12. | :22:15. | |
hospitals because there are not the beds in the community to go to save | :22:16. | :22:19. | |
the NHS needs the investment. We know that and we know the | :22:20. | :22:22. | |
Government's response to that and many think it is inadequate. What | :22:23. | :22:26. | |
I'm trying to get from you is what your response would be and what your | :22:27. | :22:30. | |
reaction will be to these efficiency plans. Your colleague Heidi | :22:31. | :22:35. | |
Alexander, she had your job earlier this year, she warned of the danger | :22:36. | :22:41. | |
of knee jerk blanket opposition to local efficiency plans. Do you agree | :22:42. | :22:48. | |
with that? Yes. So every time a hospital is going to close as a | :22:49. | :22:54. | |
result of this, and some will, it is Labour default position not just | :22:55. | :22:58. | |
going to be we are against it? That is why we are going to judge each of | :22:59. | :23:03. | |
these sustainability plans by a number of yardsticks. We want to see | :23:04. | :23:07. | |
if they have the support of local clinicians, we want to see if they | :23:08. | :23:11. | |
have the support of local authorities because they now have a | :23:12. | :23:13. | |
role in the delivery of health care. We want to see if they make the | :23:14. | :23:18. | |
right decisions for the long-term trends in population for local area. | :23:19. | :23:22. | |
We want to see if they integrate social care and health. If they | :23:23. | :23:25. | |
don't and therefore you will not bank that as an efficiency saving, | :23:26. | :23:31. | |
you will say no, that's not the way to go, you are left then with | :23:32. | :23:35. | |
finding the alternative funding to keep the NHS going. If you are | :23:36. | :23:41. | |
cutting beds, for example the proposal is to cut something like | :23:42. | :23:47. | |
5000 beds in Derbyshire and if there is the space in the community sector | :23:48. | :23:51. | |
in Derbyshire, that will cause big problems for the NHS in the long | :23:52. | :23:55. | |
term so it is a false economy. An example like that, we would be very | :23:56. | :24:01. | |
sceptical the plans could work. Would it not be honest, given the | :24:02. | :24:04. | |
sums of money involved and your doubts about the efficiency plan, | :24:05. | :24:09. | |
which are shared by many people, to just say, look, among the wealthy | :24:10. | :24:15. | |
nations, we spend a lower proportion of our GDP on health than most of | :24:16. | :24:21. | |
the other countries, European countries included, we need to put | :24:22. | :24:26. | |
up tax if we want a proper NHS. Wouldn't that be honest? I'm not the | :24:27. | :24:31. | |
Shadow Chancellor, I don't make taxation policy. You are tempting me | :24:32. | :24:37. | |
down a particular road by you or I smile. John McDonnell will come up | :24:38. | :24:41. | |
with our taxation policy. We have had an ambition to meet the European | :24:42. | :24:45. | |
average, the way these things are measured have changed since then, | :24:46. | :24:49. | |
but we did have that ambition and for a few years we met it. We need | :24:50. | :24:55. | |
substantial investment in the NHS. Everyone accepts it was | :24:56. | :24:57. | |
extraordinary that there wasn't an extra penny for the NHS in the | :24:58. | :25:02. | |
Autumn Statement this week. And as we go into the general election, | :25:03. | :25:07. | |
whenever it is, we will have a plan for the NHS. Come back and speak to | :25:08. | :25:11. | |
us when you know what you are going to do. Thank you. | :25:12. | :25:14. | |
Theresa May has promised to trigger formal Brexit negotiations | :25:15. | :25:16. | |
before the end of March, but the Prime Minister must wait | :25:17. | :25:19. | |
for the Supreme Court to decide whether parliament must vote | :25:20. | :25:21. | |
If that is the Supreme Court's conclusion, the Liberal Democrats | :25:22. | :25:25. | |
and others in parliament have said they'll demand a second EU | :25:26. | :25:27. | |
referendum on the terms of the eventual Brexit deal before | :25:28. | :25:29. | |
And last week, two former Prime Ministers suggested | :25:30. | :25:33. | |
that the referendum result could be reversed. | :25:34. | :25:36. | |
In an interview with the New Statesman on Thursday, | :25:37. | :25:39. | |
Tony Blair said, "It can be stopped if the British people decide that, | :25:40. | :25:42. | |
having seen what it means, the pain-gain cost-benefit analysis | :25:43. | :25:45. | |
John Major also weighed in, telling a meeting | :25:46. | :25:51. | |
of the National Liberal Club that the terms of Brexit | :25:52. | :25:54. | |
were being dictated by the "tyranny of the majority". | :25:55. | :25:56. | |
He also said there is a "perfectly credible case" | :25:57. | :25:58. | |
That prompted the former Conservative leader | :25:59. | :26:02. | |
Iain Duncan Smith to criticise John Major. | :26:03. | :26:05. | |
He told the BBC, "The idea we delay everything simply | :26:06. | :26:08. | |
because they disagree with the original result does | :26:09. | :26:10. | |
seem to me an absolute dismissal of democracy." | :26:11. | :26:15. | |
So, is there a realistic chance of a second referendum on the terms | :26:16. | :26:18. | |
of whatever Brexit deal Theresa May manages to secure? | :26:19. | :26:23. | |
Lib Dem party leader Tim Farron has said, "We want to respect | :26:24. | :26:26. | |
the will of the people and that means they must have their say | :26:27. | :26:29. | |
in a referendum on the terms of the deal." | :26:30. | :26:33. | |
But the Lib Dems have just eight MPs - they'll need Labour support | :26:34. | :26:36. | |
One ally is former Labour leadership candidate Owen Smith. | :26:37. | :26:42. | |
He backs the idea of a second referendum. | :26:43. | :26:45. | |
But yesterday the party's deputy leader, Tom Watson, said that, | :26:46. | :26:48. | |
"Unlike the Lib Dem Brexit Deniers, we believe in respecting | :26:49. | :26:51. | |
To discuss whether or not there should be a second referendum | :26:52. | :26:59. | |
on the terms of the Brexit deal, I've been joined by two | :27:00. | :27:02. | |
In Somerset is the former Lib Dem leader Paddy Ashdown, | :27:03. | :27:05. | |
and in Shropshire is the former Conservative cabinet minister | :27:06. | :27:07. | |
Paddy Ashdown, let me come to you first. When the British people have | :27:08. | :27:19. | |
spoken, you do what they command, either you believe in democracy or | :27:20. | :27:24. | |
you don't. When democracy speaks, we obey. Your words on the night of the | :27:25. | :27:31. | |
referendum, what's changed? Nothing has changed, Andrew, that's what I | :27:32. | :27:35. | |
said and what I still believe in. The British people have spoken, we | :27:36. | :27:39. | |
will not block Parliament debating the Brexit decision, Article 50, but | :27:40. | :27:46. | |
we will introduce an amendment to say that we need to consult the | :27:47. | :27:52. | |
British people, not about if we go out but what destination we would | :27:53. | :28:00. | |
then achieve. There is a vast difference in ordinary people's | :28:01. | :28:04. | |
lives between the so-called hard Brexit and soft Brexit. Soft Brexit, | :28:05. | :28:08. | |
you remain in the single market, you have to accept and agree on | :28:09. | :28:12. | |
immigration. Hard Brexit you are out of the single market, we have many | :28:13. | :28:21. | |
fewer jobs... Why didn't you say before the referendum there would be | :28:22. | :28:26. | |
a second referendum on the terms? Forgive me, I said it on many | :28:27. | :28:31. | |
occasions, you may not have covered it, Andrew, but that's a different | :28:32. | :28:36. | |
thing. In every speech I gave I said this, and this has proved to be | :28:37. | :28:40. | |
true, since those who recommended Brexit refused to tell us the | :28:41. | :28:43. | |
destination they were recommending, they refuse to give any detail about | :28:44. | :28:48. | |
the destination, if we did vote to go out, it would probably be | :28:49. | :28:53. | |
appropriate to decide which destination, hard Brexit or soft | :28:54. | :28:57. | |
Brexit we go to. They deliberately obscure that because it made it more | :28:58. | :29:01. | |
difficult to argue the case. It wasn't part of the official campaign | :29:02. | :29:08. | |
but let me come to Owen Paterson. What's wrong with a referendum on | :29:09. | :29:12. | |
the terms of the deal? We voted to leave but we don't really know on | :29:13. | :29:16. | |
what conditions we leave so what's wrong with negotiating the deal and | :29:17. | :29:19. | |
putting that deal to the British people? This would be a ridiculous | :29:20. | :29:27. | |
idea, it would be a complete gift to the EU negotiators to go for an | :29:28. | :29:31. | |
impossibly difficult deal because they want to do everything to make | :29:32. | :29:36. | |
sure that Brexit does not go through. This nonsense idea of hard | :29:37. | :29:41. | |
Brexit and soft Brexit, it was never discussed during the referendum | :29:42. | :29:45. | |
campaign. We made it clear we wanted to take back control, that means | :29:46. | :29:50. | |
making our own laws, raising and spending the money agreed by elected | :29:51. | :29:54. | |
politicians, getting control of our own borders back, and getting | :29:55. | :29:58. | |
control of our ability to do trade deals around the world. That was | :29:59. | :30:02. | |
clear at all stages of the referendum. We got 17.4 million | :30:03. | :30:08. | |
votes, the biggest vote in history for any issue, that 52%, 10% more | :30:09. | :30:13. | |
than John Major got and he was happy with his record number of 14 | :30:14. | :30:18. | |
million, more than Tony Blair got, which was 43%, so we have a very | :30:19. | :30:22. | |
clear mandate. Time and again people come up to me and say when are we | :30:23. | :30:27. | |
going to get on with this. The big problem is uncertainty. We want to | :30:28. | :30:30. | |
trigger Article 50, have the negotiation and get to a better | :30:31. | :30:33. | |
place. OK, I need to get a debate going. | :30:34. | :30:43. | |
Paddy Ashdown, the EU doesn't want us to leave. If they knew there was | :30:44. | :30:46. | |
going to be a second referendum, surely there was going to be a | :30:47. | :30:49. | |
second referendum, surely their incentive would be to give us the | :30:50. | :30:51. | |
worst possible deal would vote against it would put us in a | :30:52. | :30:56. | |
ridiculous negotiating position. On the contrary, the government could | :30:57. | :31:00. | |
go and negotiate with the European Union and anyway, the opinion of the | :31:01. | :31:03. | |
European Union is less important than the opinion of the British | :31:04. | :31:07. | |
people. It seems to me that Owen Paterson made the case for me | :31:08. | :31:12. | |
precisely. They refuse to discuss what kind of destination. Britain | :31:13. | :31:18. | |
voted for departure, but not a destination. Because Owen Paterson | :31:19. | :31:21. | |
and his colleagues refused to discuss what their model was. So the | :31:22. | :31:26. | |
range of options here and the impact on the people of Britain is huge. | :31:27. | :31:29. | |
There is nothing to stop the government going to negotiate, | :31:30. | :31:33. | |
getting the best deal it can and go into the British people and saying, | :31:34. | :31:38. | |
this is the deal, guys, do you agree? Owen Paterson? It is simple. | :31:39. | :31:46. | |
The British people voted to leave. We voted to take back control of our | :31:47. | :31:53. | |
laws, our money, our borders. But most people don't know the shape of | :31:54. | :31:56. | |
what the deal would be. So why not have a vote on it? Because it would | :31:57. | :32:03. | |
be a gift to the EU negotiators to drive the worst possible deal in the | :32:04. | :32:08. | |
hope that it might be chucked out with a second referendum. The | :32:09. | :32:12. | |
biggest danger is the uncertainty. We have the biggest vote in British | :32:13. | :32:19. | |
history. You have said all that. It was your side that originally | :32:20. | :32:22. | |
proposed a second referendum. The director of Leave said, there is a | :32:23. | :32:28. | |
strong democratic case for a referendum on what the deal looks | :32:29. | :32:34. | |
like. Your side. Come on, you are digging up a blog from June of 2015. | :32:35. | :32:45. | |
He said he had not come to a conclusion. He said it is a distinct | :32:46. | :32:52. | |
possibility. No senior members of the campaign said we would have a | :32:53. | :32:57. | |
second referendum. It is worth chucking Paddy the quote he gave on | :32:58. | :33:01. | |
ITV news, whether it is a majority of 1% or 20%, when the British | :33:02. | :33:05. | |
people have spoken, you do what they command. People come up to me and | :33:06. | :33:12. | |
keep asking, when are you going to get on with it? What do you say to | :33:13. | :33:21. | |
that, Paddy Ashdown? Owen Paterson has obviously not been paying | :33:22. | :33:24. | |
attention. You ask me that question at the start. Owen and his kind have | :33:25. | :33:35. | |
to stick to the same argument. During the referendum, when we said | :33:36. | :33:38. | |
that the Europeans have it in their interest to picket tough for us, | :33:39. | :33:44. | |
they would suffer as well. And that has proved to be right. The European | :33:45. | :33:48. | |
Union does not wish to hand as a bad deal, because they may suffer in the | :33:49. | :33:54. | |
process. We need the best deal for both sides. I can't understand why | :33:55. | :34:06. | |
Owen is now reversing that argument. Here is the question I am going to | :34:07. | :34:09. | |
ask you. If we have a second referendum on the deal and we vote | :34:10. | :34:18. | |
by a very small amount, by a sliver, to stay in, can we then make it | :34:19. | :34:29. | |
best-of-3? No, Andrew! Vince Cable says he thinks if you won, he would | :34:30. | :34:34. | |
have to have a decider. You will have to put that income tax, because | :34:35. | :34:39. | |
I don't remember when he said that. -- you have to put that in context. | :34:40. | :34:47. | |
Independent, 19th of September. That is a decision on the outcome. The | :34:48. | :34:53. | |
central point is that the British people voted for departure, not a | :34:54. | :34:58. | |
destination. In response to the claim that this is undemocratic, if | :34:59. | :35:03. | |
it is democratic to have one referendum, how can it be | :35:04. | :35:08. | |
undemocratic to have two? Owen Paterson, the British government, on | :35:09. | :35:11. | |
the brink of triggering article 50, cannot tell us if we will remain | :35:12. | :35:15. | |
members of the single market, if we will remain members of the customs | :35:16. | :35:21. | |
union. From that flows our ability to make trade deals, our attitude | :35:22. | :35:26. | |
towards freedom of movement and the rest of it. Given that the | :35:27. | :35:29. | |
government can't tell us, it is clear that the British people have | :35:30. | :35:32. | |
no idea what the eventual shape will be. That is surely the fundamental | :35:33. | :35:38. | |
case for a second referendum. Emphatically not. They have given a | :35:39. | :35:45. | |
clear vote. That vote was to take back control. What the establishment | :35:46. | :35:52. | |
figures like Paddy should recognise is the shattering damage it would do | :35:53. | :35:55. | |
to the integrity of the whole political process if this was not | :35:56. | :36:02. | |
delivered. People come up to me, as I have said for the third time now, | :36:03. | :36:06. | |
wanting to know when we will get article 50 triggered. Both people | :36:07. | :36:11. | |
who have voted to Remain and to Leave. If we do not deliver this, it | :36:12. | :36:16. | |
will be disastrous for the reputation and integrity of the | :36:17. | :36:20. | |
whole political establishment. Let me put that you Paddy Ashdown. It is | :36:21. | :36:28. | |
very Brussels elite - were ask your question but if we don't like the | :36:29. | :36:32. | |
answer, we will keep asking the question. Did it with the Irish and | :36:33. | :36:40. | |
French. It is... It would really anger the British people, would it | :36:41. | :36:47. | |
not? That is an interesting question, Andrew. I don't think it | :36:48. | :36:51. | |
would. All the evidence I see in public meetings I attended, and I | :36:52. | :36:54. | |
think it is beginning to show in the opinion polls, although there hasn't | :36:55. | :36:57. | |
been a proper one on this yet, I suspect there is a majority in | :36:58. | :37:01. | |
Britain who would wish to see a second referendum on the outcome. | :37:02. | :37:04. | |
They take the same view as I do. What began with an open democratic | :37:05. | :37:09. | |
process cannot end with a government stitch up. Contrary to what Owen | :37:10. | :37:13. | |
suggests, there is public support for this. And far from damaging the | :37:14. | :37:21. | |
government and the political class, it showed that we are prepared to | :37:22. | :37:25. | |
listen. We shall see. Paddy Ashdown, have you eaten your hat yet? Andrew, | :37:26. | :37:34. | |
as you well know, I have eaten five hats. You cannot have a second | :37:35. | :37:39. | |
referendum until you eat your hat on my programme. We will leave it | :37:40. | :37:42. | |
there. Paddy Ashdown and Owen Paterson, thank you much. I have | :37:43. | :37:50. | |
eaten a hat on your programme. I don't remember! | :37:51. | :37:53. | |
It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics. | :37:54. | :37:55. | |
We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now | :37:56. | :00:59. | |
We say goodbye to viewers have got to make sure London is | :01:00. | :01:02. | |
open. Thank you. Andrew, back to you. | :01:03. | :01:08. | |
Is Theresa May serious about curbing executive pay? | :01:09. | :01:10. | |
Who will be crowned Nigel Farage's successor as Ukip leader? | :01:11. | :01:14. | |
And can the Lib Dems pull off a by-election upset in Richmond? | :01:15. | :01:19. | |
So,,, on pay talk about the executive of what executives get | :01:20. | :01:44. | |
compared to the average worker in the company, giving shareholders | :01:45. | :01:46. | |
real power to vote down pay rises if they don't like them, which is | :01:47. | :01:50. | |
pretty much what Ed Miliband proposed in the general election in | :01:51. | :01:59. | |
2015. Is she serious about this? She is very serious, and the Tory party | :02:00. | :02:03. | |
probably does owe Ed Miliband an apology for trashing his ideas and | :02:04. | :02:06. | |
2015 and then putting them all up for votes in November 20 16. She is | :02:07. | :02:11. | |
very serious, and this all comes back to her desperate fear that | :02:12. | :02:13. | |
unless capitalism reforms itself and becomes more acceptable to the just | :02:14. | :02:20. | |
about managing or even 78% of the country who are not earning vast | :02:21. | :02:24. | |
wealth at anywhere near the figures you see in the City, serious things | :02:25. | :02:29. | |
will happen and the political sense of trust will implode. She has | :02:30. | :02:33. | |
already been bartered down by her own Cabinet on this. She wanted to | :02:34. | :02:37. | |
go further and make workers on the board mandatory. They have managed | :02:38. | :02:44. | |
to stop that. What will her fallback position be on workers on the board | :02:45. | :02:48. | |
if she is not able to get it into some claw? We would like to have | :02:49. | :02:55. | |
workers on the board, but whatever they do on the board there will have | :02:56. | :03:00. | |
no voting powers on the board. When you look at what was leaked out over | :03:01. | :03:04. | |
the weekend, that we should know the ratio of the top to the average and | :03:05. | :03:08. | |
that shareholders who own the company should determine, in the | :03:09. | :03:14. | |
end, the highest-paid salaries, you kind of think, what could the | :03:15. | :03:19. | |
possible objection be to any of that? Two things. One, I agree with | :03:20. | :03:25. | |
Tom that she is deadly serious about this agenda and it comes under the | :03:26. | :03:31. | |
banner, that sentence in the party conference speech about "It's time | :03:32. | :03:34. | |
to focus on the good that government can do". She is by instinct more of | :03:35. | :03:40. | |
an interventionist than Cameron and Osborne. But she is incredibly | :03:41. | :03:43. | |
cautious, whether it is through the internal constraints of opposition | :03:44. | :03:48. | |
within Cabinet, or her own small C Conservative caution in implementing | :03:49. | :03:55. | |
this stuff. Part of the problem is the practicalities. George Osborne | :03:56. | :03:58. | |
commission will Hutton to do a report which came out with similar | :03:59. | :04:01. | |
proposals, which were never implemented. It is quite hard to | :04:02. | :04:06. | |
enforce. It will antagonise business leaders when she's to woo them again | :04:07. | :04:11. | |
in this Brexit furore. So there are problems with it. And judging by | :04:12. | :04:16. | |
what has happened so far, my guess is that the aim will be genuinely | :04:17. | :04:20. | |
bold and interesting, and the implementation incredibly cautious. | :04:21. | :04:23. | |
Does it matter if she annoys some business leaders? Isn't that part of | :04:24. | :04:30. | |
her brand? Will there be problems on the Tory backbenches with it? I | :04:31. | :04:34. | |
think there will be and I think it does matter at this sensitive time | :04:35. | :04:37. | |
for when we are positioning ourselves as a country and whether | :04:38. | :04:43. | |
we are going to brand ourselves as a great city of business, implementing | :04:44. | :04:45. | |
quite interventionist policies. Any suggestion that the government can | :04:46. | :04:50. | |
control how much the top earners get, I think would be received in a | :04:51. | :04:54. | |
hostile way. What would be wrong with the shareholders, who own the | :04:55. | :04:57. | |
company, determining the pay of the higher hands, the executives? | :04:58. | :05:02. | |
Morally, you can absolutely make that argument but to business | :05:03. | :05:05. | |
leaders, they will not like it. Ultimately, this will not come down | :05:06. | :05:10. | |
to more than a row of beans. There was a huge debate about whether | :05:11. | :05:14. | |
there should be quotas of women on boards. In the end, that never | :05:15. | :05:20. | |
happened. All we get is figures. But quotas of women, for which there is | :05:21. | :05:25. | |
a case and a case against too, that was a government mandate. This is | :05:26. | :05:29. | |
not, this is simply empowering shareholders who own the company to | :05:30. | :05:31. | |
determine the pay of the people they hire. There is a strong moral | :05:32. | :05:40. | |
argument for it. Strong economic argument. But the Tory backbenchers | :05:41. | :05:46. | |
will not like this. The downside is that this is a world where companies | :05:47. | :05:49. | |
are thinking about upping sticks to Europe. No, they say they are | :05:50. | :05:53. | |
thinking of that. Not one has done it yet. Others have made massive | :05:54. | :06:01. | |
investments in this country. But is it not an incentive for those making | :06:02. | :06:06. | |
these threats to actually do it? In Europe, bankers' pay is now mandated | :06:07. | :06:13. | |
by Brussels. It is a vivid way of showing you are addressing the issue | :06:14. | :06:17. | |
of inequality. I think she will go with it, but let's move on to Ukip. | :06:18. | :06:26. | |
I think we will get the result tomorrow. There are the top three | :06:27. | :06:30. | |
candidates. Paul Nuttall, Suzanne Evans and on my right, John Reid | :06:31. | :06:36. | |
Evans. One of them will be the next leader. Who is going to win? It is | :06:37. | :06:42. | |
widely predicted to be Paul Nuttall and is probably the outcome that the | :06:43. | :06:46. | |
Labour Party fears most. Paul Nuttall is a very effective | :06:47. | :06:49. | |
communicator. He is not a household name, far from it, but people will | :06:50. | :06:55. | |
begin to learn more about him and find that he is actually quite a | :06:56. | :07:00. | |
strong leader. Can people Ukip together again after this shambolic | :07:01. | :07:06. | |
period since the referendum? If anyone can, he can. And his brand of | :07:07. | :07:12. | |
working collar, Northern Ukip is the thing that will work for them. Do | :07:13. | :07:18. | |
you think he is the favourite? It would be amazing if he doesn't win. | :07:19. | :07:22. | |
His greatest problem will be getting Nigel Farage off his back. He is | :07:23. | :07:26. | |
going on a speaking tour of North America. A long speaking tour. Ukip | :07:27. | :07:34. | |
won this EU referendum. They had the chance to hoover up these | :07:35. | :07:38. | |
discontented Labour voters in the north, and all he has done is | :07:39. | :07:42. | |
associated with Ukip with Farage. But Nigel Farage is fed up of Ukip | :07:43. | :07:46. | |
and will be glad to be hands of it. The bigger problem is money. If it | :07:47. | :07:51. | |
is Paul Nuttall, and we don't know the results yet, but he is the | :07:52. | :07:57. | |
favourite, if it is him, I would suggest that that is the result | :07:58. | :08:01. | |
Labour is frightened of most. To be honest, I think they are frightened | :08:02. | :08:05. | |
of Ukip whatever the result. Possibly with good cause. The reason | :08:06. | :08:10. | |
I qualify that is that what you call a shambles over the summer has been | :08:11. | :08:14. | |
something that goes beyond Monty Python in its absurdity and madness. | :08:15. | :08:20. | |
That calls into question whether it can function as a political party | :08:21. | :08:26. | |
when you have what has gone on. The number of leaders itself has been an | :08:27. | :08:32. | |
act of madness. In a context which should be fantastic for them. They | :08:33. | :08:37. | |
have won a referendum. There is a debate about what form Brexit should | :08:38. | :08:41. | |
take, it is a dream for them, and they have gone bonkers. If he can | :08:42. | :08:46. | |
turn it around, I agree that he is a powerful media communicator, and | :08:47. | :08:48. | |
then it is a threat to Labour. But he has got to show that first. | :08:49. | :08:54. | |
Indeed. The by-election in Richmond in south-west London, called by Zac | :08:55. | :08:59. | |
Goldsmith over Heathrow. Has it turned out to be a by-election about | :09:00. | :09:03. | |
Heathrow, or has it turned into a by-election, which is what the Lib | :09:04. | :09:08. | |
Dems wanted, about Brexit? We will know on Thursday. If the Lib Dems | :09:09. | :09:12. | |
win, they will turn it into an EU referendum. It seems incredibly | :09:13. | :09:16. | |
close now. The Lib Dems are swamping Richmond. They had 1000 activists | :09:17. | :09:21. | |
there yesterday. That is getting on for 100th of the population of the | :09:22. | :09:25. | |
place! If the Lib Dems don't manage to win on Thursday and don't manage | :09:26. | :09:30. | |
to turn it into an EU referendum despite all their efforts, it will | :09:31. | :09:33. | |
probably be a disaster for the party. What do you hear, Isabel? I | :09:34. | :09:42. | |
hear that the Lib Dems have absolutely swamped the constituency, | :09:43. | :09:46. | |
but this may backfire. I saw a bit of this myself, living in Witney, | :09:47. | :09:51. | |
when the Lib Dems also swamped and people began to get fed up of their | :09:52. | :09:57. | |
aggressive tactics. I understand that Zac Goldsmith is cautiously | :09:58. | :10:00. | |
optimistic that he will pull this one off. Quick stab at the result? I | :10:01. | :10:09. | |
don't know. But we are entering a period when by-elections are | :10:10. | :10:14. | |
acquiring significant again. If the Lib Dems were to make a game, it | :10:15. | :10:18. | |
would breathe life into that near moribund party like nothing else. | :10:19. | :10:24. | |
Similarly, other by-elections in this shapeless political world we | :10:25. | :10:29. | |
are in are going to become significant. We don't know if we are | :10:30. | :10:32. | |
covering it live on Thursday night yet because we have to find at the | :10:33. | :10:35. | |
time they are going to declare. Richmond are quite late in | :10:36. | :10:42. | |
declaring, but if it is in the early hours, that is fine. If it is on | :10:43. | :10:47. | |
breakfast television, they be not. I want to show you this. Michael Gove | :10:48. | :10:50. | |
was on the Andrew Marr Show this morning. In the now notorious | :10:51. | :10:56. | |
comment that I made, I was actually cut off in midstream, as politicians | :10:57. | :11:00. | |
often. The point I made was not that all experts are that is nonsense. | :11:01. | :11:05. | |
Expert engineers, doctors and physicists are not wrong. But there | :11:06. | :11:12. | |
is a subclass of experts, particularly social scientists, who | :11:13. | :11:15. | |
have to reflect on some of the mistakes they have made. And the | :11:16. | :11:20. | |
recession, which was predicted that we would have if we voted to leave, | :11:21. | :11:24. | |
has gone like a puff of smoke. So economic experts, he talks about. | :11:25. | :11:30. | |
The Chancellor has based all of his forward predictions in this Autumn | :11:31. | :11:34. | |
Statement on the economic expert forecasters. The Office for Budget | :11:35. | :11:41. | |
Responsibility has said it is 50-50, which is the toss of a coin. But | :11:42. | :11:46. | |
what was he supposed to do? You would ideally have to have a Budget | :11:47. | :11:52. | |
that had several sets of scenarios, and that is impossible. Crystal ball | :11:53. | :12:00. | |
territory. But you do wonder if governments are right to do so much | :12:01. | :12:03. | |
of their fiscal projections on the basis of forecasts which turn out to | :12:04. | :12:08. | |
be wrong. They have nothing else to go on. The Treasury forecast is to | :12:09. | :12:12. | |
be wrong. No doubt the OBR forecast will prove not to be exact. As you | :12:13. | :12:17. | |
say, they admitted that they are navigating through fog at the | :12:18. | :12:21. | |
moment. But he also added that it was fog caused by Brexit. So Brexit, | :12:22. | :12:25. | |
even if you accept that these forecasts might be wrong, is causing | :12:26. | :12:32. | |
such a level of uncertainty. He put the figure at 60 billion. That could | :12:33. | :12:38. | |
come to haunt him. He hasn't got a clue. He admitted it. He said, | :12:39. | :12:47. | |
Parliament mandates me to come up with something, so I am going to | :12:48. | :12:49. | |
give you a number. But I wouldn't trust it if I were you, he basically | :12:50. | :12:56. | |
said. I agree with you. The man who borrowed 122 billion more off the | :12:57. | :12:59. | |
back of a coin toss was Philip Hammond. It begs the question, what | :13:00. | :13:02. | |
does that say about the confidence Philip Hammond has in his own | :13:03. | :13:05. | |
government's renegotiation? Not a huge amount. I agree. Philip Hammond | :13:06. | :13:13. | |
quoted the OBR figures. He basically said, this is uncertain and it looks | :13:14. | :13:17. | |
bad, and on we go with it. It is a very interesting situation, he said. | :13:18. | :13:24. | |
He was for Remain and he works in a department which regards it as a | :13:25. | :13:27. | |
disaster, whatever everyone else thinks. I have just been told we are | :13:28. | :13:34. | |
covering the by-election. We are part of the constitution. | :13:35. | :13:36. | |
Jo Coburn will have more Daily Politics tomorrow | :13:37. | :13:38. | |
And I'll be back here on BBC One next Sunday at 11. | :13:39. | :13:42. | |
Remember - if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics. | :13:43. | :14:16. | |
to signify the Africans who were here. | :14:17. | :14:20. |