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responsible for the United Kingdom's policy on refugees. | :00:00. | :00:09. | |
Stars from around the world have been paying tribute | :00:10. | :00:11. | |
to the actor Sir John Hurt, who has died at the age of 77. | :00:12. | :00:20. | |
Star of stage, TV and small screen, he was best known for roles | :00:21. | :00:23. | |
in The Elephant Man, Alien and Harry Potter. | :00:24. | :00:25. | |
Now on BBC News it's time for Talking Business. | :00:26. | :00:27. | |
Rapidly growing economies - among them India - face a problem. | :00:28. | :00:29. | |
Millions of people are joining the workforce every year, | :00:30. | :00:32. | |
but with financial pressures and automation there just aren't | :00:33. | :00:34. | |
So what can be done to generate more employment? | :00:35. | :00:37. | |
That's what we're discussing on this week's Talking Business. | :00:38. | :00:47. | |
India is the fastest-growing major economy in the world, | :00:48. | :00:52. | |
yet it's among the slowest in creating jobs. | :00:53. | :00:54. | |
This country is growing at a rate of 7.6%. | :00:55. | :00:56. | |
The growth in the number of jobs being created is just | :00:57. | :00:59. | |
a fraction of that at 1.4%, and the rate at which people | :01:00. | :01:03. | |
are coming onto the employment market is almost double that number. | :01:04. | :01:08. | |
It is estimated India will need 10 million jobs every year in order | :01:09. | :01:11. | |
to employ a growing pool of young people without career prospects. | :01:12. | :01:19. | |
And advances in technology and automation could mean more bad news. | :01:20. | :01:30. | |
The technology is definitely going to disrupt the jobs | :01:31. | :01:32. | |
We would have to work every day to make it happen. | :01:33. | :01:37. | |
We have seen this massive movement, and when we worked with a lot | :01:38. | :01:42. | |
of the companies we have been able to reduce 2000 people, 3000 people, | :01:43. | :01:45. | |
all in their back end, and completely replace them | :01:46. | :01:48. | |
with artificial intelligence solutions. | :01:49. | :01:49. | |
One is an artificial intelligence experience within the store. | :01:50. | :01:54. | |
From the minute someone walks into a store, rather than having | :01:55. | :01:57. | |
a typical person greet him, explain the product of them, | :01:58. | :01:59. | |
sign him up, things like that, it will all be done | :02:00. | :02:02. | |
by an artificial intelligence screen. | :02:03. | :02:12. | |
We've built a chatbot which can communicate with customers, | :02:13. | :02:17. | |
so whenever you log a ticket or a query with the website | :02:18. | :02:20. | |
saying that my cheque-book has not yet come in, | :02:21. | :02:22. | |
now instead of a person being at the other end | :02:23. | :02:25. | |
who will understand your query then figure out what to do, | :02:26. | :02:27. | |
it is an artificial intelligence engine. | :02:28. | :02:29. | |
That whole replacement is going to really change the way | :02:30. | :02:31. | |
people are hiring now and the numbers there are hiring. | :02:32. | :02:35. | |
You may see by 2020, I think, 100% automation | :02:36. | :02:37. | |
Things like opening an account, signing up for insurance, | :02:38. | :02:42. | |
all these things which required human checks and validations can | :02:43. | :02:47. | |
So how bad is the situation actually on the ground when it | :02:48. | :02:52. | |
Well, to discuss that we've brought together a panel of guests - | :02:53. | :03:01. | |
Manish Sabharwal, chairman of recruitment firm Teamlease, | :03:02. | :03:12. | |
Kiran Mazumdar-Shaw, chairperson of biopharmaceutical | :03:13. | :03:13. | |
company Biocon, and Mr Dilpreet Singh, who is the vice president | :03:14. | :03:16. | |
of human resources at IBM India and South Asia. | :03:17. | :03:21. | |
Thanks very much for being here with us today. | :03:22. | :03:23. | |
So how bad is the situation actually? | :03:24. | :03:26. | |
Well, I think actually, you know, there is a huge | :03:27. | :03:29. | |
I think jobs growth is something that every economy is facing, | :03:30. | :03:32. | |
India of course has seen that it has been a pretty tough uphill task | :03:33. | :03:37. | |
In the last two decades we have seen 300 million people come | :03:38. | :03:41. | |
into the job market, and less than half of them, maybe | :03:42. | :03:44. | |
And I think this number is steadily declining, so it is... | :03:45. | :03:47. | |
And the population is increasing, so you can see | :03:48. | :03:50. | |
Mr Singh, your sector - IT - and if you look more broadly, | :03:51. | :03:59. | |
services, has been a big employment generator in India. | :04:00. | :04:01. | |
In the past four or five years, do you think that | :04:02. | :04:04. | |
It has definitely been creating less jobs in 2015 compared to what it was | :04:05. | :04:25. | |
error there, so overall I think -- what it was earlier. Overall it is | :04:26. | :04:30. | |
about the number of jobs created for the GDP, the rate of job growth, and | :04:31. | :04:33. | |
for India that has been declining. Also I think in the last decade we | :04:34. | :04:38. | |
have had lower growth than compared to the global average so, yes, we do | :04:39. | :04:42. | |
have a problem. I think you have to be careful with technology. When you | :04:43. | :04:47. | |
asked this question, you said, IT has created a lot of jobs. But there | :04:48. | :04:52. | |
is rounding error in India's River Fosse. It pays high salaries and we | :04:53. | :04:57. | |
are proud of them for that but we do not really give a dam about them | :04:58. | :05:00. | |
from a labour market perspective -- in India's GDP. 3 million is a | :05:01. | :05:11. | |
rounding error... What is creating jobs in India? Services. India's | :05:12. | :05:21. | |
farm to non-farm transitions is happening to sales, customer | :05:22. | :05:24. | |
services, logistics, the fastest-growing segment of India's | :05:25. | :05:29. | |
market. India is consumption driven -- domestic driven economy. We do | :05:30. | :05:35. | |
not have the same global manufacturing opportunity China had | :05:36. | :05:39. | |
in 1978. I do not think that is a good thing. I wish we had the same | :05:40. | :05:46. | |
openness to trade and global chances China had for 30 years. India does | :05:47. | :05:50. | |
not have that, so our trajectory of our job market may be more domestic | :05:51. | :05:55. | |
consumption than export and manufacturing. So you do not agree | :05:56. | :06:01. | |
that, you know, there are statistics which show our unemployment rate is | :06:02. | :06:04. | |
going quite slowly compared to the country in general? Remark I | :06:05. | :06:09. | |
disagree with that. You have added 200 million people to the labour | :06:10. | :06:12. | |
force in the last 20 years and they have been absorbed somewhere. The | :06:13. | :06:16. | |
jobs problem is not jobs. It is formal jobs, good jobs. I think he | :06:17. | :06:23. | |
makes a point. If you would get the job market, yes, 50% is | :06:24. | :06:28. | |
self-employed and 30% is casual and 20% is formal employment. So I think | :06:29. | :06:32. | |
he makes a point of saying that the biggest problem we have is in this | :06:33. | :06:38. | |
50 and 30% category where people probably earn less than 10,000 | :06:39. | :06:41. | |
rupees a month, you know. And I think we have a big need to keep | :06:42. | :06:47. | |
jobs -- take jobs away from the farm and really take it out of the farm | :06:48. | :06:51. | |
and into the services sector, into the sales sector, as he calls it. So | :06:52. | :06:56. | |
I do agree in that respect with him that, yes, perhaps India's challenge | :06:57. | :07:00. | |
and India's job challenge is slightly different to what you would | :07:01. | :07:05. | |
actually discussed in other parts of the world especially in developed | :07:06. | :07:08. | |
economies. I will slightly diverse year but everywhere I read the | :07:09. | :07:11. | |
country when I travel, every business owner I meet, we speak | :07:12. | :07:15. | |
about there being not enough employment generated -- everywhere | :07:16. | :07:20. | |
around the country. But he says he is struggling to find labour, that | :07:21. | :07:23. | |
there is this huge employability problem. Is there something you see? | :07:24. | :07:29. | |
90,000 kids come to us for a job every month and we hire about 5000 | :07:30. | :07:39. | |
of them -- 90,000 kids. But it is a more complicated problem. It is also | :07:40. | :07:45. | |
the lack of organisation. The jobs are being created in 50 cities but | :07:46. | :07:49. | |
we have 600,000 villagers, and 200,000 of them have less than 200 | :07:50. | :07:53. | |
people. So the physical geography of work... Do you take jobs to people | :07:54. | :08:00. | |
or people to jobs? It is also becoming a constraint for India. You | :08:01. | :08:03. | |
read one of the leading bio pharmaceutical firms in the world. | :08:04. | :08:08. | |
-- lead one off. How difficult is it for you to find people to give jobs | :08:09. | :08:11. | |
to? That is the challenge in most industries because we want to scale | :08:12. | :08:16. | |
up, attain global scale, and to do that you need those high-end skills | :08:17. | :08:21. | |
in large numbers otherwise you just find it is a very small talent pool | :08:22. | :08:27. | |
being tapped into by everybody, and therefore you're not really able to | :08:28. | :08:31. | |
scale of the sector. Whilst individual companies can scale up, | :08:32. | :08:35. | |
the sector does not, and you need to scale up that sector. So I think | :08:36. | :08:39. | |
from that point of view you really need to focus on developing this | :08:40. | :08:42. | |
large talent pool required to support such a large sector, and | :08:43. | :08:47. | |
that is what I think India needs to do. And, you know, talking about | :08:48. | :08:55. | |
that, only 20% formal employment in our country. What do you think needs | :08:56. | :08:58. | |
to change for that to change, for that number to grow? For us to | :08:59. | :09:05. | |
unleash the growth of jobs I think each of the various arms of the | :09:06. | :09:11. | |
government body, or the biggest parts of the government body, have | :09:12. | :09:14. | |
to really work in sync, because to me that is extremely important. | :09:15. | :09:19. | |
Because if that is not there, you know, it will not happen. To give an | :09:20. | :09:24. | |
example, if you were to have highly skilled people available, and you | :09:25. | :09:30. | |
were able to do that, but if our banking is not supporting | :09:31. | :09:35. | |
entrepreneurs to come into play, and even if the banking is supportive | :09:36. | :09:39. | |
but the labour lows are very restrictive, right, then it will not | :09:40. | :09:44. | |
happen, so I think it is a systems approach required if we really want | :09:45. | :09:50. | |
to take up and grow the jobs here. Formalisation is just... It is not | :09:51. | :09:58. | |
cultural. India is a hot habitat for intracoronary rail ownership and we | :09:59. | :10:02. | |
have 63 million enterprises, and 12 million of them do not have an | :10:03. | :10:07. | |
office, 12 million work from home. Only 8.5 million enterprises have | :10:08. | :10:10. | |
any tax registration. Only 1 million are companies, but there are only | :10:11. | :10:15. | |
18,000 companies in India with a paid-up capital of more than $1.5 | :10:16. | :10:20. | |
million. So that means nothing. But there is nothing cultural about | :10:21. | :10:24. | |
this. I resent it when people go on about Indian informality. At best, | :10:25. | :10:36. | |
that is the soft bigotry of low expectations and at worst it is | :10:37. | :10:38. | |
racism. There is nothing informal about it. If you fix the regulatory | :10:39. | :10:41. | |
cholesterol formality could go from 20% to 80% of the labour force, | :10:42. | :10:43. | |
which is what they were attempting to do, but there will be lots of | :10:44. | :10:50. | |
other initiatives over the next hopefully 2-3 years. What | :10:51. | :10:54. | |
specifically do you want to see change? If we can deregulate and | :10:55. | :10:59. | |
actually free up these new emerging industrial opportunities like | :11:00. | :11:04. | |
e-commerce, I think you can create a large number of jobs. Companies like | :11:05. | :11:13. | |
Uber, between them, they have created a million driver jobs, no | :11:14. | :11:16. | |
mean feat. Although they are having a tough time with every state | :11:17. | :11:21. | |
government wanting to rain them in. And the same is true of various | :11:22. | :11:25. | |
e-commerce companies were again the kind of regulations are stifling | :11:26. | :11:33. | |
them. Overall, what are we seeing? Entrepreneur, the investor, or the | :11:34. | :11:35. | |
organisation should have the flexibility of being able to take | :11:36. | :11:40. | |
the risk of starting the organisation -- what we saying? And | :11:41. | :11:43. | |
if it is not going well they should be able to let somebody go to Harry | :11:44. | :11:48. | |
later, or for example the flexibility of the labour lows will | :11:49. | :11:52. | |
encourage organisations to adopt automation, more productive -- to | :11:53. | :11:58. | |
hire them later. And that is more productive because it generates cash | :11:59. | :12:01. | |
and when you have that you can reinvest into different areas to | :12:02. | :12:05. | |
create more jobs. Mr XXX, thank you for being with us. Important to have | :12:06. | :12:09. | |
a view from the IT sector, which India is known for globally -- Mr | :12:10. | :12:15. | |
Singh. In the second part we will be discussing, what are the jobs of the | :12:16. | :12:20. | |
future? But first, here is our comedy consultant with his thoughts | :12:21. | :12:26. | |
on this week's Talking Point. I am here at Dublin city University's | :12:27. | :12:31. | |
innovation lab, in an empty office soon to be occupied by innovative | :12:32. | :12:34. | |
companies, and I am thinking about jobs of the future. Predicting the | :12:35. | :12:44. | |
future is a mug's game. In fact we do not even know if there will be | :12:45. | :12:51. | |
mugs, as they will probably be disrupted by some new receptacle. In | :12:52. | :12:55. | |
the future, whatever happens, billions of people will arrive on | :12:56. | :12:57. | |
planet Earth and they will need something to do to occupy their | :12:58. | :13:01. | |
time. The question is what are the future jobs? There is nothing like | :13:02. | :13:06. | |
being in a big empty office to concentrate the mind on what jobs | :13:07. | :13:09. | |
might be like in the future. This is like a blank sheet of paper. The | :13:10. | :13:14. | |
possibilities are endless. The challenge of an empty office is how | :13:15. | :13:18. | |
to fill it with jobs, and what are those jobs going to be? Right, | :13:19. | :13:26. | |
that's enough speculation from me. Let's top to the people who are | :13:27. | :13:33. | |
thinking properly about future jobs. -- let's talk. The people training | :13:34. | :13:41. | |
the next generation. This is what they call the fourth technological | :13:42. | :13:45. | |
revolution, a combination of different technologies such as ICT, | :13:46. | :13:52. | |
microelectronics, Nano Electronics, all coming together in a convergent | :13:53. | :13:56. | |
way to provide new products and services, and there are skilled | :13:57. | :14:01. | |
needs and requirements there for people having these new combinations | :14:02. | :14:07. | |
of skill sets. Thinking about the future, it is also important to keep | :14:08. | :14:15. | |
an ion the past. The miners, farmers and weavers of previous centuries | :14:16. | :14:19. | |
have gradually been replaced by the marketing technicians, the product | :14:20. | :14:22. | |
evangelists, and the strategic enablers of the present. But the | :14:23. | :14:27. | |
march of time is inevitable, and change will continue. When you speak | :14:28. | :14:33. | |
about new jobs, a lot of new jobs are actually evolutions of existing | :14:34. | :14:38. | |
jobs or professions. The salesperson's roll and job is | :14:39. | :14:42. | |
definitely evolving. Maybe we think it will be ten years from now, but | :14:43. | :14:47. | |
many companies will struggle to just sell a product. I think the product | :14:48. | :14:50. | |
is just a feature that delivers a benefit, and you need to be able to | :14:51. | :14:53. | |
share in the cost of the features and also share in the upside of the | :14:54. | :14:58. | |
benefits. We see our salespeople now as originators of deal flows and | :14:59. | :15:04. | |
allocators of our firm's capital, and that is a vastly different way | :15:05. | :15:09. | |
of looking at a sales position than you will get at, say, a traditional | :15:10. | :15:14. | |
lighting firm. So on reflection it seems there is no time like the | :15:15. | :15:18. | |
present to prepare for the jobs of the future... You can watch more of | :15:19. | :15:31. | |
his films at bbc.com/talkingbusines. We will continue our discussion | :15:32. | :15:38. | |
here. We are also joined by the co-founder of an online grocery | :15:39. | :15:41. | |
delivery service. Thank you very much for being with us. I will start | :15:42. | :15:47. | |
with you. Almost 70% of jobs in India are said to be at risk because | :15:48. | :15:52. | |
of changes in technology. Is that something you agree with, something | :15:53. | :15:58. | |
you are seeing on the ground? Actually I have a very myopic view | :15:59. | :16:02. | |
because our problems are usually the other way round. We think we are | :16:03. | :16:05. | |
creating a lot of jobs but we are not finding the right kind of people | :16:06. | :16:11. | |
for those jobs and for us that happens at both levels, the tech | :16:12. | :16:14. | |
level where we are trying to hire good engineers, but also on the | :16:15. | :16:18. | |
supply level. They are helping us think a lot of people that are doing | :16:19. | :16:24. | |
the jobs in our warehouses, for delivery, and I think a lot of the | :16:25. | :16:27. | |
discussion happening is still relevant to us where I think we are | :16:28. | :16:31. | |
not finding the right people for the right jobs. But I also think, moving | :16:32. | :16:38. | |
forward, we will not see that much job contraction because of | :16:39. | :16:41. | |
automation. I think we will see a lot more jobs created before we | :16:42. | :16:46. | |
start losing them. With automation. Technology always poses the | :16:47. | :16:53. | |
perceived threat of displacing jobs or shedding jobs, and actually | :16:54. | :16:56. | |
history has shown that technology does not do that. Actually | :16:57. | :17:00. | |
technology creates new kinds of jobs, so, you know, I think I agree | :17:01. | :17:06. | |
with what Albinder is saying. I think it is basically about | :17:07. | :17:10. | |
displacing certain types of jobs but creating new ones. I think that is | :17:11. | :17:14. | |
what we should look at, so I think India has a very different kind of | :17:15. | :17:17. | |
opportunity in terms of technology and how it is going to create a | :17:18. | :17:22. | |
larger number of jobs than what you think will happen with automation | :17:23. | :17:27. | |
and new technologies. Which will possibly shed and reduce jobs in | :17:28. | :17:32. | |
other parts of the world which have highly developed logistics and | :17:33. | :17:35. | |
supply chains, unlike India, so I think here you will see a different | :17:36. | :17:41. | |
kind of effect. You know, you started a start up here in India. Do | :17:42. | :17:49. | |
you think that is creating that sector... That sector is creating a | :17:50. | :17:54. | |
lot of jobs? Four years ago we were nonexistent and now we employ 2000 | :17:55. | :17:58. | |
people. I think that is job creation but if you look at the life cycle of | :17:59. | :18:04. | |
a company, the start-ups also die in this country because of different | :18:05. | :18:07. | |
factors. Three and a half years ago we went to a bank, we were | :18:08. | :18:11. | |
profitable small company and asked for alone to buy a cargo hold and we | :18:12. | :18:18. | |
were denied because they said the company needs to be two years or | :18:19. | :18:21. | |
older and that was one of those points where we thought, how do we | :18:22. | :18:25. | |
scale up from there? I had to borrow the money from my dad to buy a | :18:26. | :18:29. | |
second-hand car. So there is no support. I think there can be and | :18:30. | :18:36. | |
huge employment generator. A lot of people in the start-up sector have | :18:37. | :18:39. | |
already built companies, examples of that that have gone on to create | :18:40. | :18:42. | |
thousands and thousands of jobs, and I think we can have it but we need | :18:43. | :18:46. | |
to make sure the smaller companies survive. There needs to be an | :18:47. | :18:49. | |
environment for them to be nurtured and moved to the next stage where | :18:50. | :18:53. | |
they can be significant employment generators. On the one hand we talk | :18:54. | :18:57. | |
about the fact we are not generating enough employment but everywhere I | :18:58. | :19:00. | |
have gone across the country, and I met business owners always | :19:01. | :19:03. | |
complaining about the fact they cannot find enough workers. I | :19:04. | :19:07. | |
totally agree. A lot has to do with regulation. I think a lot also has | :19:08. | :19:12. | |
to do with more social logical change. Especially with the cities, | :19:13. | :19:17. | |
where the early urbanisation is happening, we see a lot more | :19:18. | :19:20. | |
formalisation of the economy happening in the bigger cities. But | :19:21. | :19:24. | |
at the moment we need to set up warehouse in second-tier city, or | :19:25. | :19:33. | |
people to work as package boys are delivery boys, big chunk of women | :19:34. | :19:37. | |
workers with degrees who do not want to do anything outside the house... | :19:38. | :19:41. | |
Even a lot of educated men would prefer to sit at home and not do | :19:42. | :19:47. | |
anything because they are not really dealing with the pressure of earning | :19:48. | :19:52. | |
a wage everyday, so we don't end up finding a lot of workers there. Is | :19:53. | :19:56. | |
there any prediction you can make at all as to which Indian jobs are | :19:57. | :20:01. | |
safe... Future proof? Let's not try to predict where jobs will be, but | :20:02. | :20:06. | |
let's try to make India self-healing. Reduce regulatory | :20:07. | :20:09. | |
cholesterol and improve human capital. It is's came to predict | :20:10. | :20:15. | |
where the jobs will be. Make the job market and education system | :20:16. | :20:18. | |
self-healing, because India's scale is something no country in the world | :20:19. | :20:21. | |
has faced before. I still believe there are many technology jobs that | :20:22. | :20:28. | |
are future proof. I think software, for example, but it is a very small | :20:29. | :20:32. | |
part of the job. If you want to look at future proofing, I think these | :20:33. | :20:35. | |
are the kind of jobs that will always be in demand, but then having | :20:36. | :20:40. | |
said that, you know, there are many other opportunities for a country | :20:41. | :20:44. | |
like India, and what do you define as the future? For India I think we | :20:45. | :20:49. | |
can sort of sustained job growth, probably for the next 20-25 years | :20:50. | :20:56. | |
without a problem, but is that the future you are speaking about? You | :20:57. | :20:58. | |
really cannot predict beyond that, because you really do not know what | :20:59. | :21:02. | |
it is going to look like in terms of the job market and job | :21:03. | :21:05. | |
opportunities, but future proofing India for the next 20 years is | :21:06. | :21:09. | |
extremely important, and I think this is where a lot of these jobs | :21:10. | :21:14. | |
being spoken about will come from. And we need to basically strengthen | :21:15. | :21:19. | |
that system to enable it. As someone who is part of that new sector | :21:20. | :21:24. | |
coming up, the new online enables sector, if I may call it that, what, | :21:25. | :21:28. | |
according to you, are the jobs of the future? Do you see different | :21:29. | :21:33. | |
jobs of the future? Actually I think my view would be that the future | :21:34. | :21:36. | |
proofed jobs are probably more in the food sector than in technology | :21:37. | :21:42. | |
so far. And that scale much bigger in food because we need to produce | :21:43. | :21:45. | |
food for a lot of people and we see that as a sort of broken supply | :21:46. | :21:50. | |
chain, our farms are broken, the supply chain is broken, we waste a | :21:51. | :21:53. | |
lot of that and have a lot of hungry people. So I think jobs in that | :21:54. | :21:57. | |
sector will always be there. E-commerce, we will see how the next | :21:58. | :22:01. | |
five years player, whether we are significant enough or not in the | :22:02. | :22:08. | |
end. But clearly the three industries, education, health care, | :22:09. | :22:12. | |
construction. And sales, customer service and logistics. If you divide | :22:13. | :22:15. | |
it functionally that will be across many industries, and just given | :22:16. | :22:21. | |
health care, education, construction, they will employ away | :22:22. | :22:26. | |
smaller number in India today than they well. That is it from this | :22:27. | :22:31. | |
edition of Talking Business in Bangalore. Do join us again next | :22:32. | :22:33. | |
week. It is turning milder across the UK | :22:34. | :22:56. | |
but it will be a slow process. Northern parts of the country, not | :22:57. | :22:59. | |
the mild. In fact it | :23:00. | :23:00. |