Browse content similar to 02/02/2016. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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Australian appointment in English rugby. In the first of International | :00:00. | :00:00. | |
is for England's cricketers in South Africa. That's in that's in | :00:00. | :00:00. | |
Sportsday in 15 minutes. Here it is the -- here is the Papers. | :00:07. | :00:32. | |
Hello, and welcome to our look ahead to what the papers | :00:33. | :00:35. | |
With me are Emily Ashton, who is chief political correspondent | :00:36. | :00:38. | |
at Buzzfeed, and Dan Bilefsky from the New York Times. | :00:39. | :00:41. | |
We began with the odds of Britain's staying in the EU, Ladbrokes have | :00:42. | :00:47. | |
slashed them today, saying it equates to a 71% chance that we will | :00:48. | :00:52. | |
stay. The Mirror thinks it is a gamble. At this time of unease, when | :00:53. | :00:58. | |
Europe is buffeted by migration crises, economic crises, I think | :00:59. | :01:01. | |
there is a feeling that pragmatic writs might be more apt to maintain | :01:02. | :01:07. | |
the status quo rather than doing something cataclysmic like leaving | :01:08. | :01:13. | |
the EU -- Brits. It could prove to revolution at this point in time. | :01:14. | :01:19. | |
How much will headlines like this in the Sun affect that decision? It is | :01:20. | :01:24. | |
quite a front page, and it is not the only front page to go with the | :01:25. | :01:30. | |
EU. We like that, the Express says you are joking. And honestly, dad 's | :01:31. | :01:41. | |
Army in the news. But yes, the Sun has long campaigned for a kind of | :01:42. | :01:47. | |
cut in immigration, which David Cameron a year or two ago said he | :01:48. | :01:53. | |
was up for. And obviously he made this pledge, didn't he, to get net | :01:54. | :01:57. | |
immigration down to the tens of thousands a year. It has stubbornly | :01:58. | :02:01. | |
remained a lot higher than that now he believes that this deal will get | :02:02. | :02:05. | |
immigration down. What it will do is actually limit benefits for EU | :02:06. | :02:11. | |
migrants. Experts say that that will not cut migration at all. So this is | :02:12. | :02:17. | |
the background. And this is in the great tradition of Sun covers, there | :02:18. | :02:22. | |
have been other moments in Britain's relations with Europe, and | :02:23. | :02:27. | |
the subliminal message of that, the arrows all pointing towards Britain | :02:28. | :02:31. | |
is that we are under an invasion and we just had the former Polish | :02:32. | :02:35. | |
Foreign Minister in here saying what would you do without us? What would | :02:36. | :02:43. | |
you do without the Poles? The Poles are a bit like the Mexicans in the | :02:44. | :02:47. | |
United States, without them, the entire service industry wouldn't | :02:48. | :02:50. | |
exist in this country. What would happen to the service industry? What | :02:51. | :02:53. | |
would happen to nurses? What would happen to drivers? What would happen | :02:54. | :02:57. | |
to the people you see smiling at you every day when you go on your lunch | :02:58. | :03:02. | |
break? How does this play, actually? Since we've got you, I know you have | :03:03. | :03:07. | |
bigger fish to fry with Iowa and New Hampshire, but that this resonate | :03:08. | :03:10. | |
with people in the United States? The issues Britain is pondering | :03:11. | :03:15. | |
over? Again, people are slightly distracted by other things in the | :03:16. | :03:19. | |
United States but it is fair to say that Washington would like Britain | :03:20. | :03:23. | |
in the European Union. There is a perception that if Britain is in the | :03:24. | :03:28. | |
EU, then the EU is a trans- Atlantic partner, at a time when there is | :03:29. | :03:32. | |
migration are people, people want pragmatic writs in the European | :03:33. | :03:38. | |
Union. There is a feeling that they are closer to the United States in | :03:39. | :03:42. | |
terms of attitudes to free markets, geopolitics, the trans- Atlantic | :03:43. | :03:46. | |
relationship -- Brits. So Obama and the United States would like written | :03:47. | :03:50. | |
in the European Union. It is a common theme. We have heard this | :03:51. | :03:58. | |
from the Swedes, the Danes, the Dutch, and if we weren't there then | :03:59. | :04:01. | |
Europe would be the poorer for it. And you can actually see that | :04:02. | :04:04. | |
although there are EU leaders nervous about what David Cameron | :04:05. | :04:07. | |
wants, especially on migration, they all really want written to stay in. | :04:08. | :04:12. | |
Britain is pretty crucial to the future of the European Union. | :04:13. | :04:15. | |
Certainly campaigners have been bending over backwards to make sure | :04:16. | :04:22. | |
that David Cameron stays in and what annoys the leave campaign is that | :04:23. | :04:26. | |
they think David Cameron has wanted to stay from the very beginning. In | :04:27. | :04:30. | |
public he says it is all about what we get from this deal. No one but | :04:31. | :04:35. | |
him believe that. It is happening at a time when there is a simmering | :04:36. | :04:38. | |
backlash against migration all across Europe. You have Denmark | :04:39. | :04:44. | |
passing policies in order to keep migrants away, seizing their | :04:45. | :04:48. | |
valuables. You have Finland introducing Draconian measures. What | :04:49. | :04:51. | |
Cameron is doing resonate quite strongly in many European capitals, | :04:52. | :04:55. | |
which is why I think the head of the European Council has come up with a | :04:56. | :04:58. | |
proposal that he believes other member states will accept. You were | :04:59. | :05:04. | |
saying a little earlier that... It is, you have to say it, a pale | :05:05. | :05:07. | |
imitation of what was promised real four month ago. And that is really | :05:08. | :05:11. | |
summed up by the front page of the Daily Mail. They are calling it the | :05:12. | :05:18. | |
great Delusion. It is not a huge surprise, the Daily Mail front page, | :05:19. | :05:22. | |
the deal does fall short of what David Cameron promised but his | :05:23. | :05:27. | |
pledges on the EU have been watered down over the last couple of years. | :05:28. | :05:31. | |
Let's talk about specifics here. We are talking about a four year ban on | :05:32. | :05:35. | |
in work benefits and now we are talking about a graduated... We are | :05:36. | :05:39. | |
talking about an emergency brake. And when he pulls the break, what | :05:40. | :05:44. | |
are the details? Are there gaps in it? It is a long way short of what | :05:45. | :05:49. | |
he was promising. And even if you go back to... That was in the | :05:50. | :05:53. | |
manifesto, this four year benefits banned. We were talking about how he | :05:54. | :05:56. | |
mentioned cuts to immigration altogether. Angela Merkel a couple | :05:57. | :06:01. | |
of years ago put paid to that. He was also talking about adjusting the | :06:02. | :06:08. | |
agricultural policy and he wanted treaty change this time last year, | :06:09. | :06:11. | |
and obviously this isn't happening at all. I think what is in this | :06:12. | :06:18. | |
compromised deal, if it becomes a deal, it doesn't really matter to | :06:19. | :06:23. | |
the average Briton unless they suffer from insomnia and want to | :06:24. | :06:27. | |
read the fine print. What matters is that the Prime Minister has decided | :06:28. | :06:30. | |
to support the yes camp and made it very clear. I think that makes it a | :06:31. | :06:37. | |
seminal moment. It is a key point, because actually if you didn't want | :06:38. | :06:41. | |
to look through the fine print, best of luck. The legalese in there. How | :06:42. | :06:46. | |
many times would you have to read it? Is there a danger that there is | :06:47. | :06:50. | |
in the right kind of information for people to make an informed decision? | :06:51. | :06:54. | |
And that is exactly what they are banking on. That is why they want an | :06:55. | :06:59. | |
early referendum, to avoid too much scrutiny of this. It is quite | :07:00. | :07:01. | |
cynical in the right kind of information for people to make an | :07:02. | :07:04. | |
informed decision? And that is exactly what they are banking on. | :07:05. | :07:06. | |
That is why they want an early referendum, to avoid too much | :07:07. | :07:08. | |
scrutiny of this. It is quite cynical pretty early so people don't | :07:09. | :07:11. | |
look too far into it. On the point is that the Tories know that... | :07:12. | :07:14. | |
David Cameron knows that and if it changes will actually win over a lot | :07:15. | :07:20. | |
of voters -- benefit changes. We were just saying to the former | :07:21. | :07:24. | |
Polish Foreign Minister that benefits have little to do with it. | :07:25. | :07:28. | |
The minimum wage here is far greater than the minimum wage in Poland. | :07:29. | :07:33. | |
Referendums are often difficult to win, and if you look at the history | :07:34. | :07:37. | |
of the European Union in this country in particular, when Britain | :07:38. | :07:42. | |
voted no and the French voted by a very small margin to the European | :07:43. | :07:47. | |
Constitution, the Irish voted no, and at a time when the economy is | :07:48. | :07:52. | |
not particularly strong, you have a migration crisis, people are feeling | :07:53. | :07:56. | |
insecure, they may raise the middle finger to the European Union is some | :07:57. | :08:00. | |
sort of protest vote. Not to draw too wide an analogy but when you | :08:01. | :08:05. | |
look at what is happening in the US election, people are feeling restive | :08:06. | :08:08. | |
and rebelling against the establishment. One would argue that | :08:09. | :08:12. | |
the climate for no vote has seldom been stronger. The summer months | :08:13. | :08:19. | |
will be crucial. If you were a gambling man, you would have to look | :08:20. | :08:25. | |
at the odds and think, well, is it worth defying the Prime Minister on | :08:26. | :08:28. | |
Europe? Many ministers, especially those key ministers like Torres, | :08:29. | :08:36. | |
Michael Gove, and the business Secretary, who are wondering whether | :08:37. | :08:39. | |
the campaign for the out camp -- Boris. There are many Eurosceptic | :08:40. | :08:46. | |
ministers and we know there are, but they haven't shown their hand apart | :08:47. | :08:50. | |
from Crisp Grayling. -- Chris Grayling. And today, David Cameron | :08:51. | :08:58. | |
was given a bit of a boost by Theresa May, who has said it is a | :08:59. | :09:03. | |
deal worth looking at, all we have the basis of a deal, which is | :09:04. | :09:07. | |
great. That is exactly what David Cameron needed. Go is probably not | :09:08. | :09:13. | |
going to jump either but they know it is a losing side at this point -- | :09:14. | :09:19. | |
Gove. I don't know if you are plugged into this but it is no | :09:20. | :09:22. | |
secret that the out camp would very much like a Michael Gove figure or a | :09:23. | :09:28. | |
Boris figure to lead them on. Well, Boris Johnson over many years has | :09:29. | :09:32. | |
been very charismatic. It doesn't surprise me at all. It seems to me | :09:33. | :09:38. | |
that he might go behind the yes side but it seems the no side is somewhat | :09:39. | :09:42. | |
divided and polarised and lacking a big figure to give it some momentum, | :09:43. | :09:47. | |
whereas on the yes vote, you have the Prime Minister, you have | :09:48. | :09:51. | |
captains of industry, it seems the winds are flying more towards the | :09:52. | :09:57. | |
yes side. Is the Guardian says, Cameron wins Theresa May's backing | :09:58. | :10:02. | |
over Europe. She is a known Eurosceptic. It is a great win for | :10:03. | :10:07. | |
him. He will be thrilled with the statement which dropped late today, | :10:08. | :10:11. | |
it is in a lot of the front pages and it really secures his hand. | :10:12. | :10:15. | |
Especially among the Tory grassroots. Many of them are pro- | :10:16. | :10:19. | |
Theresa May. She made a hardline speech to the conference about | :10:20. | :10:22. | |
migration and they won't quite sure which way she would go. And that our | :10:23. | :10:26. | |
political editor were saying a little earlier, there is this rather | :10:27. | :10:31. | |
strange period now, isn't there, over the next two weeks where they | :10:32. | :10:35. | |
sort of know the detail but they are not allowed to speak about it. The | :10:36. | :10:39. | |
likes of risk Grayling, sitting on his hands. They are not allowed to | :10:40. | :10:48. | |
come out and -- come out until the deal is actually done -- Chris | :10:49. | :10:55. | |
Grayling. Let's just turn to the elections in Iowa. The dramatic day | :10:56. | :11:02. | |
yesterday. The shock of the new normal jolts the US election. I | :11:03. | :11:07. | |
think the Guardian is referring to this new politics in the US | :11:08. | :11:10. | |
primaries where people cleave to either the far left, characters like | :11:11. | :11:16. | |
Bernie Sanders, ageing hippies who rail against globalisation or people | :11:17. | :11:20. | |
on the far right like Donald Trump or the winner, Ted Cruz, a very | :11:21. | :11:26. | |
strong, young Conservative evangelical fire and brimstone | :11:27. | :11:29. | |
Conservative. People are fed up with the establishment and these | :11:30. | :11:32. | |
candidates are benefiting as a result. Just talk to me about Bernie | :11:33. | :11:36. | |
Sanders. He is an interesting character. He is known as Democratic | :11:37. | :11:42. | |
Socialist. I thought socialism in America was a word you didn't | :11:43. | :11:47. | |
mention. It is, and that is what is interesting about Bernie Sanders. He | :11:48. | :11:50. | |
is such a left-wing candidate, such a raging hippie that you don't | :11:51. | :11:55. | |
expect to see someone like that in the US landscape. Here's something | :11:56. | :11:59. | |
like Jeremy Corbyn, although he would be far right of Jeremy Corbyn, | :12:00. | :12:07. | |
ironically, in a British context. By railing against globalisation, | :12:08. | :12:09. | |
presenting Hillary Clinton as an establishment candidate, as an | :12:10. | :12:15. | |
example of legacy and dynastic politics. He is resonating with | :12:16. | :12:18. | |
young people. Young people like Bernie Sanders, young people also | :12:19. | :12:25. | |
like Jeremy Corbyn. What is the appeal of these ageing lefties for | :12:26. | :12:28. | |
the younger generation? We have a reporter campaigning for Bernie | :12:29. | :12:33. | |
Sanders who voted for Jeremy Corbyn last summer. There is such a | :12:34. | :12:37. | |
parallel there. What do you make of the Republican side of the race? We | :12:38. | :12:42. | |
talk so much in Britain about Donald Trump, and he goes and losers! I | :12:43. | :12:49. | |
know, only by a little bit, but... One should say that Iowa is a small | :12:50. | :12:55. | |
state and although it is an interesting early snapshot, there | :12:56. | :12:59. | |
are many states to go. For my point of view the surprise winner is Marco | :13:00. | :13:03. | |
Rubio, became a strong third and showed that the Republican | :13:04. | :13:07. | |
establishment can rally behind him. The funding establishment can rally | :13:08. | :13:10. | |
behind him and if we end up with a Marco Rubio Hillary Clinton race, | :13:11. | :13:14. | |
that would be very interesting. They have been trailing up until now, but | :13:15. | :13:18. | |
have shown their viability. Trump has had a setback but is doing very | :13:19. | :13:22. | |
well in the polls going ahead towards New Hampshire. There is a | :13:23. | :13:27. | |
question whether this circus performer act will translate for the | :13:28. | :13:30. | |
electorate. He appeals to angry working-class men and women, and he | :13:31. | :13:33. | |
has tapped brilliantly into this kind of politics of anger at when | :13:34. | :13:37. | |
that goes before the entire electorate, there is a question | :13:38. | :13:41. | |
whether it people will see him as the next president of the United | :13:42. | :13:46. | |
States. You have these big, sweeping freeways in the US. Do you have | :13:47. | :13:52. | |
white lines on? Because The Times Says that in Britain it is the end | :13:53. | :13:55. | |
of the road for white lines on highways. Really? Yes, markings are | :13:56. | :14:01. | |
being erased from busy roads across the country in an attempt to slow | :14:02. | :14:06. | |
motorists down. Apparently blank roads introduced this sense of | :14:07. | :14:11. | |
uncertainty, so... We don't know where we are in the road. Motor | :14:12. | :14:16. | |
astride a bit more cautiously. I went to Lebanon and Jordan recently, | :14:17. | :14:20. | |
to look at the Syrian refugee crisis, and I noticed that they do | :14:21. | :14:28. | |
have lanes, but people don't drive cautiously -- motorists drive a bit | :14:29. | :14:36. | |
more cautiously. A simple pot of paint can save lives, in particular | :14:37. | :14:40. | |
highly visible markings at the edge and centre of the road which can be | :14:41. | :14:45. | |
seen at night are enormously cost-effective, so to get rid of | :14:46. | :14:48. | |
them, surely there will be more deaths on the road? As a cyclist, | :14:49. | :14:54. | |
this sounds quite frightening to me. We will pass on that one. Anxious | :14:55. | :15:03. | |
and unhappy says the Express. They must be middle-aged. If you are aged | :15:04. | :15:07. | |
between 14 and 59 you are struggling to cope with caring for elderly | :15:08. | :15:13. | |
parents and raising a family -- 40 and 59. If we were on that game show | :15:14. | :15:17. | |
where you had to name what is troubling you, mortgages and debt. I | :15:18. | :15:23. | |
can see how we do hear these things in Parliament about women in | :15:24. | :15:26. | |
particular who are trapped between caring for children and for elderly | :15:27. | :15:30. | |
relatives at the same time. So I can see how that bracket is affected. No | :15:31. | :15:37. | |
surprise, Dan, that those aged 65 to 74 are deemed to be the happiest, | :15:38. | :15:42. | |
because they have big pensions. Big pensions, their children are out of | :15:43. | :15:45. | |
the house, they can enjoy their retirements. So I guess that is | :15:46. | :15:49. | |
understandable. There is a problem in this country with people older | :15:50. | :15:55. | |
than that who are alone and suffering without much human | :15:56. | :15:59. | |
contact. Yes, I guess it is just those who have the money who can | :16:00. | :16:03. | |
afford to be happy. But anyway, those of us who are middle-aged will | :16:04. | :16:07. | |
plod on. Thank you very much for joining us this evening. | :16:08. | :16:12. | |
Coming up next, it is time for Sportsday. | :16:13. | :16:15. |