02/02/2016 The Papers

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Sportsday in 15 minutes. Here it is the -- here is the Papers.

Hello, and welcome to our look ahead to what the papers

With me are Emily Ashton, who is chief political correspondent

at Buzzfeed, and Dan Bilefsky from the New York Times.

We began with the odds of Britain's staying in the EU, Ladbrokes have

slashed them today, saying it equates to a 71% chance that we will

stay. The Mirror thinks it is a gamble. At this time of unease, when

Europe is buffeted by migration crises, economic crises, I think

there is a feeling that pragmatic writs might be more apt to maintain

the status quo rather than doing something cataclysmic like leaving

the EU -- Brits. It could prove to revolution at this point in time.

How much will headlines like this in the Sun affect that decision? It is

quite a front page, and it is not the only front page to go with the

EU. We like that, the Express says you are joking. And honestly, dad 's

Army in the news. But yes, the Sun has long campaigned for a kind of

cut in immigration, which David Cameron a year or two ago said he

was up for. And obviously he made this pledge, didn't he, to get net

immigration down to the tens of thousands a year. It has stubbornly

remained a lot higher than that now he believes that this deal will get

immigration down. What it will do is actually limit benefits for EU

migrants. Experts say that that will not cut migration at all. So this is

the background. And this is in the great tradition of Sun covers, there

have been other moments in Britain's relations with Europe, and

the subliminal message of that, the arrows all pointing towards Britain

is that we are under an invasion and we just had the former Polish

Foreign Minister in here saying what would you do without us? What would

you do without the Poles? The Poles are a bit like the Mexicans in the

United States, without them, the entire service industry wouldn't

exist in this country. What would happen to the service industry? What

would happen to nurses? What would happen to drivers? What would happen

to the people you see smiling at you every day when you go on your lunch

break? How does this play, actually? Since we've got you, I know you have

bigger fish to fry with Iowa and New Hampshire, but that this resonate

with people in the United States? The issues Britain is pondering

over? Again, people are slightly distracted by other things in the

United States but it is fair to say that Washington would like Britain

in the European Union. There is a perception that if Britain is in the

EU, then the EU is a trans- Atlantic partner, at a time when there is

migration are people, people want pragmatic writs in the European

Union. There is a feeling that they are closer to the United States in

terms of attitudes to free markets, geopolitics, the trans- Atlantic

relationship -- Brits. So Obama and the United States would like written

in the European Union. It is a common theme. We have heard this

from the Swedes, the Danes, the Dutch, and if we weren't there then

Europe would be the poorer for it. And you can actually see that

although there are EU leaders nervous about what David Cameron

wants, especially on migration, they all really want written to stay in.

Britain is pretty crucial to the future of the European Union.

Certainly campaigners have been bending over backwards to make sure

that David Cameron stays in and what annoys the leave campaign is that

they think David Cameron has wanted to stay from the very beginning. In

public he says it is all about what we get from this deal. No one but

him believe that. It is happening at a time when there is a simmering

backlash against migration all across Europe. You have Denmark

passing policies in order to keep migrants away, seizing their

valuables. You have Finland introducing Draconian measures. What

Cameron is doing resonate quite strongly in many European capitals,

which is why I think the head of the European Council has come up with a

proposal that he believes other member states will accept. You were

saying a little earlier that... It is, you have to say it, a pale

imitation of what was promised real four month ago. And that is really

summed up by the front page of the Daily Mail. They are calling it the

great Delusion. It is not a huge surprise, the Daily Mail front page,

the deal does fall short of what David Cameron promised but his

pledges on the EU have been watered down over the last couple of years.

Let's talk about specifics here. We are talking about a four year ban on

in work benefits and now we are talking about a graduated... We are

talking about an emergency brake. And when he pulls the break, what

are the details? Are there gaps in it? It is a long way short of what

he was promising. And even if you go back to... That was in the

manifesto, this four year benefits banned. We were talking about how he

mentioned cuts to immigration altogether. Angela Merkel a couple

of years ago put paid to that. He was also talking about adjusting the

agricultural policy and he wanted treaty change this time last year,

and obviously this isn't happening at all. I think what is in this

compromised deal, if it becomes a deal, it doesn't really matter to

the average Briton unless they suffer from insomnia and want to

read the fine print. What matters is that the Prime Minister has decided

to support the yes camp and made it very clear. I think that makes it a

seminal moment. It is a key point, because actually if you didn't want

to look through the fine print, best of luck. The legalese in there. How

many times would you have to read it? Is there a danger that there is

in the right kind of information for people to make an informed decision?

And that is exactly what they are banking on. That is why they want an

early referendum, to avoid too much scrutiny of this. It is quite

cynical in the right kind of information for people to make an

informed decision? And that is exactly what they are banking on.

That is why they want an early referendum, to avoid too much

scrutiny of this. It is quite cynical pretty early so people don't

look too far into it. On the point is that the Tories know that...

David Cameron knows that and if it changes will actually win over a lot

of voters -- benefit changes. We were just saying to the former

Polish Foreign Minister that benefits have little to do with it.

The minimum wage here is far greater than the minimum wage in Poland.

Referendums are often difficult to win, and if you look at the history

of the European Union in this country in particular, when Britain

voted no and the French voted by a very small margin to the European

Constitution, the Irish voted no, and at a time when the economy is

not particularly strong, you have a migration crisis, people are feeling

insecure, they may raise the middle finger to the European Union is some

sort of protest vote. Not to draw too wide an analogy but when you

look at what is happening in the US election, people are feeling restive

and rebelling against the establishment. One would argue that

the climate for no vote has seldom been stronger. The summer months

will be crucial. If you were a gambling man, you would have to look

at the odds and think, well, is it worth defying the Prime Minister on

Europe? Many ministers, especially those key ministers like Torres,

Michael Gove, and the business Secretary, who are wondering whether

the campaign for the out camp -- Boris. There are many Eurosceptic

ministers and we know there are, but they haven't shown their hand apart

from Crisp Grayling. -- Chris Grayling. And today, David Cameron

was given a bit of a boost by Theresa May, who has said it is a

deal worth looking at, all we have the basis of a deal, which is

great. That is exactly what David Cameron needed. Go is probably not

going to jump either but they know it is a losing side at this point --

Gove. I don't know if you are plugged into this but it is no

secret that the out camp would very much like a Michael Gove figure or a

Boris figure to lead them on. Well, Boris Johnson over many years has

been very charismatic. It doesn't surprise me at all. It seems to me

that he might go behind the yes side but it seems the no side is somewhat

divided and polarised and lacking a big figure to give it some momentum,

whereas on the yes vote, you have the Prime Minister, you have

captains of industry, it seems the winds are flying more towards the

yes side. Is the Guardian says, Cameron wins Theresa May's backing

over Europe. She is a known Eurosceptic. It is a great win for

him. He will be thrilled with the statement which dropped late today,

it is in a lot of the front pages and it really secures his hand.

Especially among the Tory grassroots. Many of them are pro-

Theresa May. She made a hardline speech to the conference about

migration and they won't quite sure which way she would go. And that our

political editor were saying a little earlier, there is this rather

strange period now, isn't there, over the next two weeks where they

sort of know the detail but they are not allowed to speak about it. The

likes of risk Grayling, sitting on his hands. They are not allowed to

come out and -- come out until the deal is actually done -- Chris

Grayling. Let's just turn to the elections in Iowa. The dramatic day

yesterday. The shock of the new normal jolts the US election. I

think the Guardian is referring to this new politics in the US

primaries where people cleave to either the far left, characters like

Bernie Sanders, ageing hippies who rail against globalisation or people

on the far right like Donald Trump or the winner, Ted Cruz, a very

strong, young Conservative evangelical fire and brimstone

Conservative. People are fed up with the establishment and these

candidates are benefiting as a result. Just talk to me about Bernie

Sanders. He is an interesting character. He is known as Democratic

Socialist. I thought socialism in America was a word you didn't

mention. It is, and that is what is interesting about Bernie Sanders. He

is such a left-wing candidate, such a raging hippie that you don't

expect to see someone like that in the US landscape. Here's something

like Jeremy Corbyn, although he would be far right of Jeremy Corbyn,

ironically, in a British context. By railing against globalisation,

presenting Hillary Clinton as an establishment candidate, as an

example of legacy and dynastic politics. He is resonating with

young people. Young people like Bernie Sanders, young people also

like Jeremy Corbyn. What is the appeal of these ageing lefties for

the younger generation? We have a reporter campaigning for Bernie

Sanders who voted for Jeremy Corbyn last summer. There is such a

parallel there. What do you make of the Republican side of the race? We

talk so much in Britain about Donald Trump, and he goes and losers! I

know, only by a little bit, but... One should say that Iowa is a small

state and although it is an interesting early snapshot, there

are many states to go. For my point of view the surprise winner is Marco

Rubio, became a strong third and showed that the Republican

establishment can rally behind him. The funding establishment can rally

behind him and if we end up with a Marco Rubio Hillary Clinton race,

that would be very interesting. They have been trailing up until now, but

have shown their viability. Trump has had a setback but is doing very

well in the polls going ahead towards New Hampshire. There is a

question whether this circus performer act will translate for the

electorate. He appeals to angry working-class men and women, and he

has tapped brilliantly into this kind of politics of anger at when

that goes before the entire electorate, there is a question

whether it people will see him as the next president of the United

States. You have these big, sweeping freeways in the US. Do you have

white lines on? Because The Times Says that in Britain it is the end

of the road for white lines on highways. Really? Yes, markings are

being erased from busy roads across the country in an attempt to slow

motorists down. Apparently blank roads introduced this sense of

uncertainty, so... We don't know where we are in the road. Motor

astride a bit more cautiously. I went to Lebanon and Jordan recently,

to look at the Syrian refugee crisis, and I noticed that they do

have lanes, but people don't drive cautiously -- motorists drive a bit

more cautiously. A simple pot of paint can save lives, in particular

highly visible markings at the edge and centre of the road which can be

seen at night are enormously cost-effective, so to get rid of

them, surely there will be more deaths on the road? As a cyclist,

this sounds quite frightening to me. We will pass on that one. Anxious

and unhappy says the Express. They must be middle-aged. If you are aged

between 14 and 59 you are struggling to cope with caring for elderly

parents and raising a family -- 40 and 59. If we were on that game show

where you had to name what is troubling you, mortgages and debt. I

can see how we do hear these things in Parliament about women in

particular who are trapped between caring for children and for elderly

relatives at the same time. So I can see how that bracket is affected. No

surprise, Dan, that those aged 65 to 74 are deemed to be the happiest,

because they have big pensions. Big pensions, their children are out of

the house, they can enjoy their retirements. So I guess that is

understandable. There is a problem in this country with people older

than that who are alone and suffering without much human

contact. Yes, I guess it is just those who have the money who can

afford to be happy. But anyway, those of us who are middle-aged will

plod on. Thank you very much for joining us this evening.

Coming up next, it is time for Sportsday.