04/02/2016 The Papers

since early this morning has died despite rescue efforts to save it.

Hello and welcome to our look ahead to what the papers

With me are Benedicte Paviot, a correspondent from France 24

and Hugh Muir, a columnist for The Guardian.

The Syria crisis is the lead for the Guardian,

it says that Russian airstrikes on civilians are pushing tens of

thousands of people towards Turkey in what it calls a new exodus.

The Times says that the campaign to leave the EU has

surged to a record poll lead of nine points; it says voters have rejected

The Metro thinks the Wikileaks founder Julian Assange is

in the middle of a legal farce, as the Foreign Office rubbishes UN

claims that he is being unlawfully detained.

Child abuse allegations are the focus

It says the former head of the army, Lord Bramall,

was forced to live under the weight of false allegations for nearly

The Independent accuses top city law firms

It says bills of up to ?1100 an hour are denying

The Financial Times leads with losses at Credit Suisse,

it says shares in the bank have fallen to their lowest point

The Mirror says that government cuts to social care mean that thousands

of patients ready to be released from hospital are forced to stay

there because they have nowhere to go.

And the Express also leads with the European Union,

the newspaper's online poll suggests 92% of people want to leave the EU.

Let us begin. Let's go to the Times, EU campaign surges to record

levels. This is very dramatic. It says that the out campaign after the

first week as a 9-point lead. 56 to 44. There are many caveats. The

first one is that 19% don't know, so there is a lot to play for there.

The other thing that strikes one is you look at the number of people who

say that they actually support the elements of the deal that David

Cameron unveiled this week, and that is 62%, supporting the emergency

brake on the number of migrants. So they seem to like bits of the deal

but don't particularly like the sound of the package so far. Ther

are some dark warnings, from Goldman Sachs and one or two others at

investment banks, saying things could go tell a

investment banks, saying things could go tell -- terribly wrong for

the pound. Some are saying that the pound could lose a fifth of its

value is the UK decides to come out of the EU. What is also interesting

is that this is the first poll to be conducted after the terms of the

draft EU renegotiation will make public, just on Tuesday. What is

also interesting is that in this YouGov poll in this article,

Rose, who is campaigning... The old Marks Spencer boss. That is true.

He claimed that Britain would vote substantial margin, and it would be

a huge win. He was immediately criticised,

Nigel Farage, he said that he is prediction revealed massive

complacency. We are beginning to get polls now, it seems to have shifted

to more than out mood. Before we even though the date on which the

referendum will take place, and we don't know if it will take place in

June, because the February summit will be the crunch decision. Whether

it other EU members even agree what is in it. Interesting thing about

this poll is that it reminds us that there was a lead of this dimension a

couple of years ago, so things have been going the in weight, and now it

is going back towards out. I think there needs to be a general health

warning on any poll, but I think we will see in every poll it will swing

back and forth. I suspect that in will win, whether it is by a

significant margin, as Stuart Rose says, we don't know. Put your money

there, but don't go and see me if you lose! Apparently 92% wanted quit

the EU. You have to read the fine print. It is an online poll of their

own readers. It is an exclusive online poll, where 92% voted to

leave the EU. The link that the Daily Express is making is to do

with the asylum claims. The number of people claiming asylum in Britain

rose by almost 50% last summer, has the EU failed to get to grips with

the global migration crisis. I think one of the things that is very

clearly happening, and where the remain in the EU campaign is not

getting a lead on this, is the link between asylum claims and migration

is becoming, certainly in the papers, a justification, as if the

whole of the EU is about that. There is a huge difference between people

who claim asylum and people who succeed in getting asylum. That is

why it will be so volatile. All you need is a huge spike in migration,

another migration crisis, another wave of migration at the wrong time,

and David Cameron may think it is going quite well and then the whole

thing could be knocked off course just buy one incident. That is why

it will be very volatile. And we can see in the next story that a fresh

exodus of people from Syria is expected. Let's go onto that. The

amount of money that has been offered up to help refugees, but

this story is about Aleppo. This shows why that money is needed, and

why so much more is needed. At the same time as the meeting was taking

place in London, there are reports of the effects of Russian airstrikes

in Aleppo, driving tens of thousands of people towards the Turkish

border. Turkey obviously can't cope with that, and what we see in other

circumstances where countries have raised money to deal with refugees

is that that money hasn't been forthcoming, so whether Turkey will

get the help it needs to deal with refugees on that scale is very

doubtful. It is an important corrector, because it shows why we

need to have these talks. It also shows why the problem needs to be

solved at source. We can raise billions of pounds but if people are

going to be moving on this scale, then we can't possibly deal with

that. We have seen pictures on the size of refugee camps, if you look

at some of this it is awful what is happening. Aleppo is just one place.

Thousands of people on the move, it seems incredible. That is right,

there are real fears of another refugee exodus. 70,000 people are

said to be on the move, I mean, this is being called a siege of

starvation around Aleppo. I think what is interesting also that is in

this article in the Guardian is this warning by the US Secretary of

State. As all these pledges were coming in here in London at this

conference, John Kerry was calling on the Syrian regime and its allies

to hold the bombardment of opposition held areas, saying they "

clearly signalled the intention to seek a military solution rather than

enable a political one". It is absolutely essential. We have seen

those Geneva UN talks fail. What I will be interested in is the speech

by the UN Secretary General tomorrow morning in his final year, which is

being hailed as a legacy speech, which is organised by Chatham House.

It will be interesting to see that in this position some of these

leaders are freer to say things in their final year. It is not about

money only, as you were saying, but about helping to stop this

bombardment. What it is looking like is that Russia is really wanting to

help Syria on a military front, and not helping to look for a political

solution or resolution. When you see the report in its entirety you will

see how the UN will be crucial, because Turkey are angry at the UN,

dealing they haven't had the sort of support they should have had. The

Turkish government said that just as the UN subsequently felt it had to

apologise for failure in Bosnia, it will have to go back to Turkey and

apologise for its failure to deal with the Syrian situation. Let's

move on to a different sort of angle altogether. The Financial Times, a

story about dark ships' unexplained stops in terrorist havens. We are

used to having tight security and airports, particularly with the

terror threat, and really what the Financial Times has done is look at

this from another angle. They are looking at the commercial waters,

saying that the Mediterranean is unguarded and there are few ways of

tracking ships, dark ships, they say. They are saying there are many

movements of them. We don't know if they are people smugglers, drug

ships, if bogus shipping logs are being used. It is painting a picture

of a very lax security regime on the water. It is mainly because we just

haven't really looked at that as being as big a threat as we have

with our airports. Again it is a problem of resources. As Europe is

really struggling to deal with the migration crisis, its biggest

frontier is the sea. 70,000 kilometres, as in this excellent

article on page eight of the FT by Sam Jones, and he actually breaks it

down. We have always known about ships using flags of convenience,

but they give some really... They flesh out the mounting concern for

the lack of a comprehensive system. The fact that there was taunting of

jihadists, dancing around Europe from Belgium and into France and

other countries, there really is concerned. Also, lack of resources,

because it is admitted by the maritime authorities that they

cannot monitor every ship. When some ships switch off every identifying

science and do a U-turn and rendezvous with other boats, this

could easily be a terrorist risk. It is unlikely that anyone will be

repaired to spend the sort of money it would take to have meaningful

security on the sea, because we saw how quickly the spending was reduced

on the patrols to find migrant boats. Pretty quickly the money ran

out, the... It doesn't make sense to spend all that money, you have to

take your shoes and belts off before you go through the airport, and

70,000 kilometres of coastline, this makes no sense. We don't even know

who is in the UK and who isn't, because they came through the

borders yesterday back into the UK and had a chat with those on the

French and the British side. It is really easy. Airports are doable,

the coast is not, is it? In a sense, what they are saying is that

it is an accident waiting to happen. The dog hasn't barked yet. What a

perfect cue for our last story! This is the front page of the

independent. There is a very large dog on it, and he is apparently

yawning. How can you tell if a dog is yawning? Canine boredom epidemic.

Have either a few got a dog? I love dogs, I wish I could. It is a wave

of canine depression, a boredom epidemic, because the weather has

been so dreadful that no one is taking their dogs out for walks. The

dogs are going stir crazy, and the Independent has spoken to some

experts and come up with some advice. Very briefly. Play games,

hide the food and they can look for it, hide toys, stroke them behind

the ears, stroke them on the chest. I'm glad we ended on that good

story. Thank you both very much. Coming up next, Sportsday.