23/05/2016 Victoria Derbyshire

at a disadvantage compared to youngsters in London?

Claims this morning that more money should go

to Northern schools to bridge a growing north-south divide.

We're interested to hear your views on that.

Hello - Welcome to the programme and the start of a new week,

He was lead guitarist with 70s rock group Dr feel-good.

In 2012 he was diagnosed with terminal pancreatic cancer.

He spent a year believing he had twelve months to live.

Then a chance encounter with a doctor led to

He'll be here with his story a little later.

Do get in touch on all the stories we're talking about this morning -

If you text, you will be charged at the standard network rate.

Our top story today - The latest warning on leaving

the European Union is that Brexit would plunge the UK

A Treasury forecast predicts short-term economic turmoil.

But Leave campaigners are dismissive - they say it's another

Here's our political correspondent Tom Bateman.

Eight years on from these scenes, when the financial crisis tipped

Britain into recession, the Government's

But this time the Chancellor, George Osborne, claims it would be

This morning, along with the Prime Minister,

he writes that a vote to leave the EU would trigger an immediate

David Cameron says this would be a DIY recession,

caused by Britain turning its back on the world's largest marketplace.

The claims are based on a Treasury report being released

by the Chancellor, which warns that Britain's economy would be tipped

into a year-long recession after a vote to leave the EU.

It says economic output would be lower by at least 3.6%

than if Britain stayed in, and, in a worse case scenario,

The document claims the economic shock would see house price growth

10% lower than if we remained in the EU, and there would be

But the Vote Leave campaign says an exit from the EU would instead

create thousands of new jobs through trade deals with growing

It is describing today's claims as deeply biased,

with the Vote Leave campaigner Iain Duncan Smith saying Treasury

predictions have been hopelessly wrong in the past.

Today's warnings are another sign the Remain campaign believe repeated

messages about economic risks will persuade

But once again, the message is been fiercely contested.

Let's chat to Norman Smith at Westminster.

A month to go, the focus very much on the economy.

And another very bleak report from the Treasury. I haven't got it yet.

They have given us a summation of the conclusions but we haven't had

the report itself to look at the detail. The headline conclusions,

certainly, frighten the pants off you. They are suggesting that within

a couple of years up to half a million jobs could be lost. They say

the economy and economic growth will be slower by up to 6%. The pound

could be down by up to 15%. House prices will not grow as fast by

something like 80%. That the cost of everything from mortgages to food

prices, the clothes, all of that will go up. -- to clothes. Hold onto

your seat belt, it is a dark assessment of what would happen if

we left the European Union. Brexit campaigners have said, well, Boris

Johnson has described it as a giant hoax. Iain Duncan Smith said it

wasn't honest. It seems to me that the two sides are so far apart on

the basic facts about the economy they are not even on the same page.

That fall voters this has almost come down to, who do you believe?

They are not even arguing about the same things any more. -- that for

voters. It is about. Instinct. Rather than a tussle between the

economic arguments. Thank you. -- it is about

Have you decided how you're going to vote

Well you are very welcome to take part in one of our big TV audience

in Manchester just over a fortnight before the actual vote.

It's open to everyone and will take place in our normal airtime

If you want to take part and can get to Manchester from wherever

you are in the UK do email [email protected]

to have your chance to quiz senior politicians from the leave

Maxine is in the BBC Newsroom with everything else you need

A health think tank says official advice promoting low-fat diets

and calorie counting is failing to tackle the rise in

The National Obesity Forum argues in favour of eating MORE fat,

and accuses public health bodies of colluding with the food industry.

Public Health England has called the intervention

OK, Chris, let's just see what you weigh.

He used to be on the maximum medication allowed.

But after trying a low-carb, high-fat diet, he has lost weight,

his blood sugar, blood pressure and cholesterol are down and he has

I feel better than I've felt for many years.

I am the lowest weight I've been, probably in my adult life.

People don't recognise me if I've not seen them in a long time.

Chris's GP says he's suggested the diet to lots of diabetic

patients, with startling results, improving their health and saving

the surgery ?45,000 a year in medication costs.

The diet's success is highlighted in a report today from the charity,

It's calling for an urgent overhaul of national dietary guidelines,

which it blames for a rise in obesity and diabetes.

It says people should eat low amounts of starchy carbohydrates,

More controversially, it recommends eating saturated fat,

such as full fat dairy, and avoiding food marketed as low-fat.

But experts insist the problem isn't with the current guidelines.

I think most people have a good sense of what a healthy

What they are struggling with is how to put that into practice.

That's where people really need more support.

Public Health England has described today's report today

as "irresponsible" and insisted the current dietary

guidelines are based on the most up-to-date evidence.

A report examining why so many children in care end up

in the criminal justice system, describes the current situation

as a tragic waste of young people's lives and of public money.

The review says police need to change the way they handle

crimes involving children in the care system.

In the six years she has been in care she has lived

in 15 different places right across the country.

She says the frustration and distress that has caused led

to her getting into trouble with the police.

Because of her age we have discussed her identity

-- disguised her identity and changed her voice.

The way the care system worked I didn't like it.

The way if I liked living somewhere they would move me and if I didn't

If I was getting bullied, nothing would be done about it.

The review says most young people in care don't get into trouble.

But out of the 1,000 children in custody in England and Wales

The report says changes are needed to police

So, rather than giving the child a criminal record,

the authorities work together to provide more help

Coming into the care system ought to be the trigger that

It ought to be their foundation on which they can develop

social skills, have their educational needs addressed.

The review concludes it will take strong leadership to ensure

all children in care are getting support that can make a positive

A fire has swept through a school dormitory in Northern Thailand,

killing at least seventeen girls, who were asleep.

The private school teaches students aged

between six and thirteen - at least five other girls

The cause of the fire is not yet known.

President Obama has lifted a longstanding ban on selling

weapons to the Vietnamese government - during a visit to the country.

Mr Obama said the decision removes one of the last traces

The president's visit comes as China asserts its territorial claims

Our correspondent Jonathan Head is in the Vietnamese capital Hanoi.

Where decent isn't tolerated and yet, It is a former enemy of the

United States. If you go back to the days of the Vietnam War. The two of

them have been forced to form this partnership because of the shifting

sands of geostrategic power. In Asia, you have got some of the

fastest growing economies in the world, Vietnam is one of them.

Hungry for success and important trade partners for many others,

including Britain. It is a neighbour of China and China is in dispute

with Vietnam about the south China Sea. A hot dispute about which

Vietnamese people get angry. Vietnam wants American power back in here to

counter act China. President Obama believes the US must anchor itself

in Asia and move its focus from the Middle East particularly to this

very important economic region, to counter China.

It is a remarkable scene this morning of President Obama shaking

hands with an old-style communist leader in front of the man who led

the war against the Americans half a century ago and lifting this arms

embargo. He is still saying we disagree about Human Rights. There

are dissidents here who have been jailed for many years. There are

other dissidents who want to meet President Obama, but he is having to

balance that with the importance both countries put on the strategic

relationship and on their economic relationship as well.

Jonathan, thank you. The Iraqi government has started

a big military operation to recapture Fallujah,

which has been under the control of Islamic State fighters

for more than two years. Reports say there've been

clashes on the outskirts Thousands of trapped residents have

been warned to be prepared to fell, and those who can't leave

are being told to raise white flags Last week the US-led coalition

carried out seven strikes in the Fallujah area,

and Iraq has also been Austria's presidential election

remains too close to call and will depend on a count

of postal ballots today. At the moment, the former

Green Party leader Alexander Van der Bellen,

who's pro-EU, is neck and neck with the Eurosceptic nationalist

candidate Norbert Hofer (pron: Formal bids for Tata Steel's

operations in the UK have to be Up to seven offers

are expected to be made but the timetable

for negotiations is unclear. Tata put the business

up for sale in March - its Port Talbot site is losing

an average of a million pounds a day The world's biggest insurance

company, AXA, is to stop investing It's going to sell shares

and bonds worth more The company says investing

in the sector makes no sense given that smoking killed some six million

people a year. Some other lines in the autumn.

Union officials at the RMT say there are still some issues with the plan.

Adele won five trophies at the Billboard Music Awards.

The highlight of the show was a tribute to Prince by Madonna who

ended the awards ceremony. # It's been seven hours and 13 days

since you took your Love away. That is a summary of the latest

news. More at 9:30am. That's a summary of

the latest BBC News. Coming up shortly, the guide dog

owners who say they want tougher penalties for cab and minicab

drivers who refuse to take them Do get in touch with us

throughout the morning. Use the hashtag Victoria

live and if you text, you will be charged

at the standard network rate. Jamie Vardy has now scored in three

England games in a row, but he'll have to wait

for the chance to do it for a fourth time because he's getting married

and will miss their second warm up match for the European Championship

after getting the winner Roy Hodgson started with both Vardy

and Harry Kane and it was Kane who put England ahead two minutes

in though the goal should have been England looked a little unconvincing

at the back at times and Turkey Kane missed a penalty in the second

half, but England nicked Over the last couple of years we

have had some very, very good defensive performances. We haven't

let in that many goals. So it is not a question sadly of me thinking that

we are poor defencily. I don't think we are. But there are areas still we

need to work on. The competition is there in the back four, in mid-field

we might have other mid-fielder combinations which could possibly

protect the back four in a different way.

As Manchester United set about finalising Jose Mourinho's contract,

Louis van Gaal has arrived at the club's training ground this morning

after saying goodbye to his team yesterday without knowing whether he

will see them again. As of last night, Louis van Gaal hadn't been

told that he is to be replaced by Joement, but the Dutchman said he

still hoped to be this charge for the final year of his three year

contract. Jose Mourinho is preparing to hold talks with senior Manchester

United officials this week. Ben Stokes has been ruled of the

second Test against Sri Lanka with a knee injury picked up in the win at

Headingley. He has been replaced by Chris Woakes who is the only change

in the 12 names for Durham. Woakes will join up with the rest of the

squad having played the first two days of his county championship. As

will Nottingham seamer Jake Ball. Rory McIlroy has won the Irish Open

at the K Club near dLinl. He led Danny Willett by three going into

the final day, but Willett fell away shooting a 77. This approach on the

par-5, 16th helped give McIlroy a lead for Russell Knox. Rory made no

mistake, a final round of 69 gave him a three shot victory and his

first ever win at his home tournament.

Heather Watson will resume her first round match at the French Open.

There wasn't a great deal of play on the opening day, but Watson managed

to get on court and has come from a set down against Nicole Gibbs. The

British number two will play to finish today. Andy Murray is not

expected to make it on court despite being scheduled to play later on.

That's the sport for now. Back to you Joanna.

Thank you. Unfair school funding puts hundreds

of thousands of children in schools in the North at a disadvantage

compared with London youngsters that's according

to a major report out today. It reveals at primary school level,

the north of England receives about ?4,600 per pupil in grant

funding, about the national average, but ?900 less than London,

and at secondary level, the North receives around ?5,700

per pupil, ?100 less than the English average and ?1,300

less than London. More money should be redistributed

to the North to bridge a growing North South divide in academic

standards, according to the study by the Institute

for Public Policy Research North Let's talk now to James Westhead,

Director at Teach First Also Sir Michael Wilshaw

is the Chief Inspector at Ofsted. Louise Kelly's daughter

is in a secondary school Tarun Kapur, who runs

the Dean Trust, a group of Academy We've also got entrepreneur

and business owner Claire Young, who not only recruits

from schools in the North, but her company also works

with schools across the country. And Headteacher Adrian Kneeshaw took

over a special measures I'm going to come to you first

James, but you have been involved in the research obviously. 55% of

pupils in the north of England get five A to C grade GCSEs versus 61%

in London. We were just hearing about the funding discrepancy. Is

that why? Yes, well, what we found in the report looking at the data

across the north and around the country is that there is a real

divide in education between the north and the south and in

particular, with London. If we're looking at creating a Northern

powerhouse, bringing together cities, investing in industry and

infrastructure and transport, then what this report suggests is we also

need to invest in education. The divide that you're describing is

starkest when you look at children from the poorest backgrounds. There,

children in the north are starting out behind other children in the

rest of the country and in particular London when they start at

school and they're leaving further behind. Now, we don't think that's

right. That's a waste of potential on a very large scale. Tell us more

about the issues behind it. On the funding, why is it like that? Are

other factors coming into play when you look at the educational

performance in north versus south? There is a divide in the outputs,

but in the inputs. So in, the inputs to schools in terms of funding and

in terms of staffing and in terms of wider resources. So roughly

speaking, a secondary school, kept in the northern of England ?1300 per

pupil less... Why is that? It is historic and related to need. It is

related to a whole bunch of factors. The Government is now reviewing

funding of schools nationally and creating what it calls a fairer

funding formula. What we're suggesting is that we really should

look carefully at the need of schools, both in terms of the prior

attainment of pupils and also the challenges that the schools are in

and the consider redistributing funds. OK, well, let's get the view

of a parent. Louise Kelly, you've got a 13-year-old daughter in a

school described as inadequate. What is her and your experience of the

school? She just seems to, she goes in and she just, she doesn't know

who she is going to have, what day, the supply teachers are there for

one or two lessons and it is another one like the next week. I mean, for

instance, she asked her last night, she has a supply teacher for maths.

I says how long have you had the supply teacher for and she said

ages. As it turns out, ages is only two weeks. I mean, there is no

consistency or anything and so they school can't seem to get teachers in

on a permanent basis and she has fallen behind. She is struggling

with her maths when she used to, when she was at primary school, she

was always like the top and now in secondary school, because they don't

seem to have the teachers there, like on a long-term basis, she has

fallen behind. It just seems to be, it just seems to be a big issue

within the school. It is not just with maths, it is all the subjects

she had supply teachers for. Let's talk to a headmaster. You are a

headteacher of a school in Bradford that was in special measures. Does

that sound familiar? Is it hard to attract good teachers? The situation

is different to other schools. It is representative of schools in the

north and especially ones that are in special measures or requires

improvement. You are in a downward spiral, how do you attract good

staff? If you are in special measures an area that's deemed to be

difficult, difficult behaviour, it is hard to attract them. We are

lucky. We have got a good reputation, behaviour, small class

sizes and we look after staff. We have a good reputation in the city

even when we were in special measures so we never had those

problems, what was represented by the parent is a fair representation

overall. Sir Michael, you have spoken about your concerns before

about the north-south divide. How do you identify the problem and the

impact it may have in the long run? Well there, is a secondary school

issue. Primary schools in the Midlands and the north are doing as

well as primary schools in London and south and in fact, if you look

at a place like Redcar and Cleveland in the north-east, a place which has

gone through some very hard times with the closure of the steelworks,

primary schools there are doing better than primary schools in

London. Where is the disconnect? What's going on? The funding issue

will be addressed through the national funding formula the

Government is going to introduce over the next year or two, but the

secondary schools, when they transfer to secondary schools, they

are doing badly. Very badly. Something like two-thirds of the

schools in special measures are in the north and in the Midlands. Why

do you think that is? The worst local authorities are in the north

and the midlands for secondary school performance. Well, I think

part of it is just lower expectations and the lessons of

London, because London has not always been a good performer. I have

an ex-London teacher. I'm an ex-London head. I've worked in

London in the 70s and 80s and 90s when standards were terrible. What

changed London was political will, of local political leaders who said

this is enough is enough and also, good headteachers coming into London

and showing what could be done. And if we're going to turn around the

fortunes of secondary schools, in the Midlands and the north of

England, we need that essential combination. Who has got the low

expectations? Not the parents, not the teachers? Not the parents, but

headteachers are critical. Absolutely critical and what we need

are great headteachers in the Midlands and the north of England

who know what to do, have high expectations and can transform their

schools. You run an academy chain with six schools in the pipeline. In

one, in noastly, that's one of the worst fer forming areas. How do you

respond so what Sir Michael is saying about lower expectations as

his analysis of what the issues are? Well, first of all, the issue of

fair funding is one that's being addressed so I will put that on one

side and we have three local authorities we are working with and

each local authority funds us differently so that's a challenge

into itself. I agree that aspirations and high expectations is

something that and a tray tra Dirksal way of working is necessary

in schools. We've worked alongside local primary schools and raised the

aspirations of all the families and the children to ensure that

actually, you can do something. We have linked it with businesses as

well. Businesses are constantly saying, "You're not preparing

children." We are asking them, "What do you want us to do to prepare

children for jobs that sometimes don't exist at the moment." It is

right, we need to follow the London model. I think that was very

successful, having the best people leading the schools, but echoing

what the parents said, getting maths teachers, English teachers, is not

easy in very difficult areas or areas that are perceived to be

difficult because teachers will say, "Why should we work there?" With us,

they come and work for our trust and they will work in those areas and

they will say, "Actually, this is great." Clare, you run a company

that sends speakers, motivational speakers into school. Interestingly,

schools in London engage you more to send people into schools there

compared with schools in the north. Why do you think that is? I think

not repeating comments which other people have said, but I do find when

we're working with London schools, the students have got much greater

aspirations, they are very savvy. They are much more aware of the real

world so to speak and the skills which are needed to succeed. They

seem to know about the cost of living. They have greater career

aspirations. It is a shame for somebody who, I live in Yorkshire,

my office is based in Wakefield, I'm very proud of the north and it is

frustrating when you see the low expectations which have been

mentioned and I think it does come down to having strong leadership,

having the superb heads who have got visions, stories, they will take the

students and the staff which is very important, bringing those fantastic

teachers in to really make the difference, the revolution which is

needed. James, you want to come in. Just building on what has been said

so far. Teach First is a charity that recruits high pir forming

teachers to work in schools and we work with about several hundred

schools across the north and our experience is there are amazing

teachers and amazing headteachers, but this education is at bottom of

people business. People is what is going to drive success and

performance, all the speakers are right, we've got to invest in

teachers. We've got to invest in headteachers in schools in the north

if we're stand a chance of closing this divide which is a very real

one, which will hold the north back in the future unless we do something

about it now. Louise, you're a mum. What do you think when you hear this

conversation around expectation and aspiration and hear the different

comparisons between how schools in the north are funded and the results

that are being produced? I think that money spent in schools should

be the same across the country. There shouldn't be this gap. The

cost of resources to buy things you need to successfully teach is going

to be the same across the country. There is going, there is no, there

shouldn't be such a huge like difference in what you're spending

on children on education because these children are the country's

future. They are going to be the ones that are going to go out into

the workforce and everything. To have this huge like just difference,

it is writing off the children of the north and saying that they are

not worth it. That's my personal opinion.

Thank you. I want to bring in a couple of comments from viewers.

Ronald says, "Governments say sums for education, but don't say the

schools and the criteria for getting funding." Another viewer says there

is not a north-south divide in Ofsted ratings. Is that right, Sir

Michael? If you look at the special measures of the schools that are

failing, 175, I think, are failing in the country. Two-thirds of them

are in the north of England and the Midlands and the big challenge is

secondary school performance in the north and the Midlands. I was in

Liverpool last week and I spoke to two outstanding headteachers and the

Mayor of Liverpool. They understand what needs to be done and they have

a better chance of recruiting good teachers because they are running

good schools. Thank you for your comments.

And the Department for Education have issued this statement,

"At the heart of our education reforms is the mission of ensuring

that every child receives an excellent education that enables

them to fulfil their potential regardless

We are making progress with 1.4 million more children

in good or outstanding schools than in 2010 and the attainment gap

between disadvantaged pupils and their peers falling.

We will provide ?20 million a year of new funding through our

Northern Powerhouse Schools Strategy and have commissioned an in-depth

review to understand the factors underpinning underperformance

Still to come: Can Mourinho make United the "special ones" again?

We get the views of fans and one former player - that's coming up

How some taxi drivers are refusing to take guide dogs in their cars

and why they're getting away with it.

Here's Maxine in the BBC Newsroom with a summary of today's news.

The latest intervention in the referendum debate predicts Britain

would plunge into a year long recession. The leave campaigners say

that treasury forecasts are wrong and no one predicted the last crash.

They say leaving the EU would give the UK more freedom to trade with

the rest of the world. The National Obesity Forum says

official guidelines are to blame for a rise in obesity and type 2

diabetes. The Prison Reform Trust says that

children in chair should not be prosecuted for minor offences. A

review by the trust describes the current situation as a tragic waste

of young people's lives and of public money. It says the police

often prosecute youngsters for the type of challenging behaviour it

would normally be dealt with in the family home. It is known that 18

girls between the ages of five and 12 were killed by a fire that swept

through a school dormitory in northern Thailand. At least five

girls were injured. The cause of the fire is not yet known. Officials say

some of the dead have been roused by a dorm maid, but went back to sleep

thinking it was a prank. The Mayor of London Siddique Khan

has announced the long-awaited all-night tube service in the

capital would be launched in the summer. The service will start on

the central and Victoria lines on August 19, with some others in the

autumn. Union officials still say they have some issues with the plan.

Ruth Davidson has announced she is to marry her partner, Jen Wilson,

while the pair were away over the weekend she popped the question. The

Chancellor George Osborne has tweeted his congratulations to the

couple. That is a summary of the latest news, more for you at ten

o'clock. Let's catch up with the sport. Louis van Gaal has arrived at

Manchester United's training ground this morning as the club prepare to

replace. As of last night the manager had not been told by United

that they have decided to appoint Jose Mourinho. Van Gaal said goodbye

to some of his players and staff at the weekend, after winning the FA

Cup, not knowing whether he would see them again. Jamie Vardy will

miss the next match for England on Friday because he's getting married

this week. Chris Woakes has been added to the England squad for the

second test, starting at Durham on Friday, replacing Ben Stokes who is

injured. Heather Watson will resume her first-round match at the French

Open, a breakdown in the deciding set Nicole Gibbs after rain affected

the opening day. -- a break down. Manchester United scrambled a

victory in Saturday's FA Cup final against Crystal Palace but many say

the win was unfairly overshadowed by the news that current manager Louis

van Gaal is to be replaced by footballing veteran, Jose Mourinho.

Fuel was added to the fire yesterday when van Gaal said it's over. The

rumours broke just an hour after the FA Cup was lifted at Wembley. Today

we are asking if it was there to oust van Gaal when he should have

been celebrating his victory. Man Utd blogger Clare Moran and her

father are here, along with Richard Singh, who says the club's game has

become boring under van Gaal. Thank you for joining us. Clare, you were

there, does it feel like this has overshadowed the victory? I think it

has a bit. He could have been given a bit more time to have his moment

and celebration. It was a bit unfair on him. Overall I think you must go.

The football that has been played this season, it just has not been

good enough, it has been boring, not been the United Way. He has not got

Champions League football either. That is the minimum expectation is

expected of him and he just failed. What do you think, Dave? I would

agree with what Clare says, probably we should have waited before making

any announcements. Although I think we are now where we should have been

perhaps three years ago, bringing Mourinho in. Joanne? I agree, when I

was there on Saturday I was glad that we did win, it was very nerve

wracking at times. I think it is right van Gaal is going, the timing

of the announcement is unfortunate but for me Mourinho is not the right

appointment. I just worry about the fact that the man will overshadow

the club. We have seen his past history, he has had great success

but he can also be quite divisive. It has been said he doesn't have the

most attacking style of play. And he doesn't necessarily bring on the

young players, which is what I really want to see happening again

at United, as was what was happening under Sir Alex Ferguson.

What do you think? We had the chance to get him a few years ago. We

didn't go for him. At the moment it is the only option we have. Are you

glad Louis van Gaal is going? Very glad. Why? Similar reasons. Paul

style of play. No Champions League. You have got the FA Cup final. Yeah,

but that was a struggle. -- poor style of play. I thought we would go

out and grab it. But it was a laboured dame. It is a shame that it

happened so soon after, so he didn't get a chance to celebrate. --

laboured game. They are not keen on Jose Mourinho, but you are. I think

you get some bad press. I think he adapts to what is necessary. Look at

his record, I mean, it is 12 years... Either first or second. I

think once he was third. Second top goal-scorer in the league. That is

what we want for Manchester United at the end of the day, bring some

passion back. What about the point that he is too big a figure, he will

overshadow the club? You mean that Alex Ferguson wasn't? True. Not at

the start, he became that. If we want to be the biggest club in the

world, we mustn't do what Arsenal have done. We need to win things. We

need to get back up. Jose Mourinho is probably the only option. He

wouldn't be my first race. I think is the best available now and I

think we should go to him and start winning things. Do you think he will

do good things? Yes. Are definitely come he is a winner, born winner,

and that is what we need at the club. -- definitely, he is a winner.

Who else were you thinking about? Laurent Blanc, he has played at

United, which is a good thing. He is at PSG. You cannot we compare the

two leagues, because there are only a couple of top clubs in their Lee,

whereas over here we have about seven or eight easily. -- league.

Ferguson's shoes were always going to be difficult to fill. It was

always a concern. I have been a fan since we were not winning. If he

became manager today and did not achieve success very quickly he

would be out. That was his record when he first joined. They are huge

shoes to fill. I think there are some good younger managers out there

who could come, with a bit of nurturing and time, with some cash

to spend, could be there for the longer run. Longer than I suspect

Jose Mourinho would be there. With Claudio Ranieri last year, all of

the commentators who were saying, look at what he has achieved. I

think he will achieve, but I don't think he will be there for the long

term, and that is what I want. How long did it take for Sir Alex

Ferguson to win anything, and they wanted him out, but he was given

time, wasn't he? I remember that period. It was difficult with Sir

Alex. The team he inherited was completely different. Today it is

different. We need to win things. We need excitement back. I think Jose

Mourinho will bring that. Hopefully the right excitement but it will

make things interesting again. Does it matter if he is a short-term

manager? No. If it is three years, and we are winning things, it

doesn't matter. I think he might surprise people. It has always been

his dream position, which is another factor to take into account. He

wants to be at United and create something special. He has achieved

it elsewhere, why not in Manchester? We can now bring in Clayton

Blackmore. Thank you for joining us. What do you think? It -- is it right

Louis van Gaal is going? He has had a couple of years. He has done well

in a couple of years, it took Sir Alex longer. I spoke to the fans,

and a lot of people were not going to renew boxes if Louis van Gaal was

still in charge. It is more down to the supporters. They need

entertainment. They have had 30 years of attacking football. We

haven't done a lot of crossing and shooting and scoring goals this

season. What was it, then, just boring football, you think? It isn't

boring, because they are keeping the ball. We have great players in the

team. But we just don't make enough chances. We are not shooting enough

at goal. Some said he had a problem with communicating. Did the build

morale enough? I'm not sure about that. -- did the.

Looking from the outside, the big thing was we were not taking enough

risks, putting the ball in the box. At the start of the season, Wayne

Rooney were given a lot of stick. Not playing upfront enough. A lot of

other teams did and they all won. When you have two upfront, it works

the centre halves, gets them tired. We have always been a keen to score

late goals. If you have that kind of formation, the centre halves get

tired. What do you think about Jose Mourinho? Top manager. Hopefully he

has recovered from his stint of a season with Chelsea. When it comes

to the club I think he will be fantastic for the club. Does it feel

weird right now to be looking at what Leicester City achieved this

season, and seeing where Manchester United are, and the fortunes of

United, with what is going on with the manager, and everything else?

Whoever is in charge at the start of next season, we look at Leicester

City. I watched that Old Trafford this season, and they were the worst

I have seen play there. But they have a good work ethic. They play

good football. Nobody has mentioned them in the old days. I think Kasper

Schmeichel has played as many to Jamie Vardy than anybody else.

Thanks very much. Let us know if you have any thoughts on that. Coming

up: The new warning over Brexit is set out by the Chancellor this

morning. He is giving a speech with the Prime Minister at around ten

o'clock. We will bring you that this.

Sly dog owners are calling for stronger penalties for cab drivers

who refuse to carry them. -- guide dogs. Owners are being let down

because the penalties issued to taxi and minicab drivers who flout the

law and refuse to take assistant dogs are inadequate. The charity's

research shows the fines can be a slow as ?50. No higher than the

fines given to people who avoid rail fare -- no higher than the fines

given to somebody who has not bought a rail ticket. He loves the park.

Yes, you do! RADIO: Can you do a pick up, 15

Tanner Crescent? Oh, great, you've got

one of those, have you? Listen, I'm not going anywhere

with him in the back. Listen, you're all right, mate,

but I don't want his kind I'll have you know, I'm

a hard-working professional. It's my cab and I

decide who gets in. I can't leave

the house without him. I'm pretty sure this

is illegal. I'm sorry, you know,

you're just not getting in. Let's talk now to guide dog user

Jade Sharp who's experienced this herself and Helen Honstvet

from the charity Guide Dogs. And Steve McNamara,

General Secretary of Thank you for coming in. Jade,

you're here with your guide dog, it has happened to you, hasn't it? Tell

us what your experiences have been. I have been refused by nine YouTuber

taxis, YouTube erminy cabs in total. And what happened? Last May on 7th

May me and a friend were going to a concert at the Fairfield Halls in

Croydon. We got refused by four Uber mini-cabs in one day. Had they

actually arrived and saw the dog? No, what happened was because I had

been refused once previously by another taxi firm and in that case,

the driver had turned up, seen Brodie and had driven off. Whenever

I booked the Uber mini-cab on my phone, I would ring the driver in

advance and tell him that I had a guide dog travelling with me.

We have asked Uber for a comment. This is what they told this

A spokesperson told the programme:"While the licensed

drivers who use our app are self-employed we remind them

of their legal obligation to take service animals before

It is not acceptable to refuse guide dogs.

Any Uber partner-driver who doesn't accept service animals not only

risks having their Uber partnership revoked,

but also risks having their private hire license taken away"

When you are in it though, when you are unable to get where you want

because you have been refused a ride because of the dog, how does that

feel? It's frustrating really because I've got Brodie to be

independent and to help me to go places and it feels like barriers

are just being put up in my way. There is times now where I might

want to go out somewhere and I just think to myself, "Should I take my

white stick? Should I take my cane instead of using Brodie because I

don't want to be refused again." How would that make you feel if you had

to go down that route? I wouldn't want to do that because Brodie is

there to make me more independent. He is there to help me when I'm out

and about and I don't want to have to stop using him. And Helen, how

much is this happening? So we did a survey last year and we found that

at one point 75% of guide dog owners have been refused access from

somewhere. And... Not just necessarily taxis? All sorts of

shops. Restaurants, all sorts of places, but taxi and private hire

vehicles are the most common place that guide dog owners have been

refused access from. Is the law clear? Yes, the law is very clear

and in fact, in many ways, it is strongest around taxis. Unless you

have a valid medical exception certificate, you must take an

assistance dog at no extra cost. Steve, are you aware of many drivers

doing this? This is a particular problem with the money cab industry

particularly the likes of Uber where the drivers are not known to the

company. The company have a very light touch. To revert everyone back

to the statement from Uber. They say they make their drivers aware. Not

necessarily focussing on Uber, but in general, do you think drivers...

Black cabs in London. Why would we not want to take people with

assistance dogs? Can you guarantee that no black cab driver would

refuse? I never heard of it. If you provide a service to London or any

other city in the UK then you should provide a service to all those

people. Can you imagine if we were sitting here and somebody was saying

they refused to take someone because of their colour or their religion?

There would be an outcry. Why is it that it is acceptable to refuse

someone because they have got an assistance dog. It is a scandal.

What is needed is greater training, what is needed is greater regulation

and what we say should happen, there should be a one strike and you are

out policy. If you are convicted of refusing to carry an assistance dog,

your licence should be revoked. Helen, the law is clear. There is a

system in place that allows for quite heavy fines, ?1,000. Is the

system working effectively? We don't think that's a heavy enough fine. It

is equivalent if you dodge a train fare or don't pay your TV licence,

but Jade has talked about the real impact that this has on people's

independence and some people considered giving up their guide dog

because they don't feel confident going out and whether they will be

refused. What we want is for the fine to be increased to ?2500 which

would be a stronger deterrent and for all tax and meuby cabs drivers

to have to disability and equality training as a condition of their

licence. That's something we would welcome. Jade was talking about the

fact that people are turned away not just from taxis and mini-cabs, and

other places too. Do you get turned away much because of your dog? Well,

a few years ago, me and my sister got refused from a Tesco's. We got

told to leave because we had Brodie with us and I have also been refused

from a local pub at home as well. Do you stand your ground and say,

"Explain why you have got the dog." I always say he is a guide dog, he

is a working dog. He is allowed anywhere. And he is your eyes and

ears? Yes. Thank you very much for coming in and talking to us. Let us

know if you've ever had any experience around guide dogs as well

and what your thoughts are on that. Wilko Johnson from Dr Feel Good will

be in the studio. He was diagnosed with terminal cancer and given a

year to live. A year after that a chance encounter led to his complete

recovery. So we've already been

warned that leaving the EU would lead to war in Europe,

plummeting house prices, the NHS suffering and thousands

of pounds disappearing Today, there's another dire

prediction that Brexit would thrust the UK into what's being called

a "DIY recession". Well, Vote Leave campaigners

are urging people to ignore the so-called "voices

of doom" and are deeply dismissive of the predictions

in today's treasury report. Let's talk to our political

guru, Norman Smith. Joanna, thank you very much. Well,

this treasury report, the latest one, paints an extraordinary bleak

picture suggesting 500,000 jobs could be lost. Now that's been

dismissed by Leave campaigners as fantastical. The former Work and

Pensions Secretary, said it was not honest and he joins me now, Iain

Duncan Smith, welcome. When you said it was not honest. Are you saying

that the Prime Minister and the Chancellor are deliberately

misleading voters? What they're doing categorically, they are

presenting only one worse case scenario and that ultimately will

mislead voters into believing only one thing is feasible. The point

about the Treasury report. The Chancellor himself in 2010 said we

can no longer trust treasury reports. We have to have an

independent report which is the OBR because treasury reports are fiddled

with by politicians who get their forecasts twisted to meet their own

demands. So I stand with that which is why we went independent, but here

we are now with a treasury report, where the Government said we will

remain regardless of the consequences and everything is set

therefore to make people believe that there will be a terrible

disaster if we leave. Now, treasury reports like all economic reports

have a central case. You have a down side possibility and you have an

upside possibility. Today, they haven't even bothered with the

upside, Sajid Javid said we are not going to do that because it is not

our responsibility, it is the responsibility of the other side. If

you are using taxpayers money and you want to present a fair case to

the British electorate where is the upside forecast and where is the

risk of remaining from the euro area which we have been told by the MPC

and others there is a tragedy if you leave because... So is this

referendum rigged? I believe categorically at the moment the

Government is misusing its powers, it is misusing the civil servants

and public money, many of whom will be voting to leave, their money is

being used to produce reports which should be fair and I would say the

Government should be fair about this. Where is the upside case and

where is the risk of remaining if the euro area continues where it is

many Italian banks insolvent and unemployment at terrible levels.

Where is the risk of remaining? Not one word from them about that? You

know this is a biassed report. You say it is by asked and it is not

fair. My question is whether they are deliberately lying? Because you

said at the weekend that the Chancellor was a bit like Pinocchio.

His nose gets longer as he tells fibs. That seems pretty clear you

think Mr Osborne is lying? Well, let's put it like this. If you want

a report to look bad, you ask them to look at only the very worst

cases, in other words that you won't get any deal out of the European

Union, there will be massive instable and it will get a long time

to get a deal and the UK economy will crash. I could write that

report. I don't need the Treasury to do that. I could write that down on

the back of a fag packet. That's what they are doing. They have got a

bunch of figures to suggest that's the case. Fairness says that you

would put the other side of the case as well. Which is not in here and

more importantly, what are the risk of remaining? They are abusing this.

What is interesting about this, they put Sajid Javid up, a Business

Secretary, a guy I know very well who himself has already said on many

occasions that he doesn't believe... Did he say that recently to you?

Well, you saw it in his article. That was a couple of years ago. No,

no, when we broke up in the Cabinet to go and fight the referendum. Has

he said to you actually. I haven't talked to him about this, but I know

what his views were, that we should leave the European Union and the

biggest risk and he others maintained is being in the European

Union with the euro in such a crisis that it is at the moment. Iain

Duncan Smith, thank you very much for your time. Joanna, we are

talking about this report, we still haven't seen the report because it

is not been handed out to journalists. All we have had so far

actually is a press release from what the Treasury say are the main

conclusions. We haven't yet had that report.

Thank you, Norman. Let's catch up with the weather. Jay Wynne has the

details. Good morning, Joanna. It is a bit of a mixed bag through the day

today. Some us had a lovely start with sunshine and some of us will

keep that into the afternoon. But we have seen a few showers and we will

see the showers becoming more widespread as we get on into the

afternoon. The satellite sequence confirms that many of us had a

lovely start. Where we've got the sunshine at the moment, we are

likely to see the cloud building and showers will be developing, but not

for all. The showers will be in the inland areas in particular. So many

coastal areas doing very well indeed. That should be the case

across the western side of Scotland. Good spells of sunshine. Maybe a

shower or two in Glasgow, but it will be dry for much of the time. It

is the eastern side of Scotland which is more laukly to see showers

and some could be heavy and thundery. Northern Ireland is large

dry dry through the afternoon. Showers few and far between here.

Northern England will see some showers, but over the Pennines. East

of the Pennines, dry, but there is a cool breeze coming in from the North

Sea. Tempering the temperatures somewhat. Head inland, 18 Celsius or

19 Celsius possible. Sharp showers will develop through the Midlands

towards the eastern side of Wales, but towards the south-west of

England and Wales, fine and dry and good spells of sunshine. The showers

will be there through this evening, but they will fade away overnight.

By dawn it will be dry with clearing skies and it will turn chilly. Major

towns and cities will be around seven, eight or nine Celsius. Rural

spots will go lower than that. A chilly start to what should be a

decent day on Tuesday. There is a keen breeze blowing down the eastern

coast and it will bring low cloud with it and a chilly feel to things.

Most places will be fine and dry just the odd shower in the south and

the west. That's your weather for now.

Hello it's Monday, it's ten o'clock, I'm Joanna Gosling in for Victoria,

welcome to the programme if you've just joined us.

Our top story - One month to go until the EU referendum.

The Treasury says a leave vote could trigger an immediate recession -

remain campaigners say economic forecasts are frequently wrong.

We expect to hear from David Cameron and George Osborne in the next few

minutes. Also ahead: Official advice

on a healthy diet is branded So just what should

you eat to be slim? We'll discuss the arguments around

low fat foods and obesity. We'll be speaking to 70s rock star

Wilko Johnson who was given one year to live after he was diagnosed

with cancer in 2012 - in that year he put out

a bestselling album and went A chance encounter led to his

recovery. We will have his story a little later.

Maxine is in the BBC Newsroom with a summary of today's news.

The Treasury says a vote to leave the EU would mean the loss

Its latest intervention in the referendum debate predicts

that Britain would plunge into a year long recession.

But Leave campaigners say Treasury forecasts are often wrong and no one

They say leaving the EU would give the UK economy more freedom to trade

We'll hear live from David Cameron and George Osborne in a few minutes.

Iain Duncan Smith says that the report is misleading. I believe the

government is misusing its powers. Misusing the civil servants. Public

money, many of whom will be voting to leave, their money is being used

to produce reports which should be fair. I am saying the government

needs to be fair about this. A report examining why so many

children in care end up in the criminal justice system,

describes the current situation as a tragic waste of young people's

lives and of public money. The review says police need

to change the way they handle crimes involving children

in the care system. There are also calls

for the government to do more to help young people coming

out of care. Lord Laming, a former probation

officer and director of social Coming into the care system ought

to be the trigger that It ought to be the foundation

on which they can develop social skills, have their educational needs

addressed, where they can develop optimism for the future and

self-confidence within themselves. Tackling the attainment gap between

rich and poor pupils is the key to print -- key to improving failing

schools, according to a new report. The Institute

for Public Policy Research finds that at primary school,

the region gets about ?4,500 per pupil, which is about

the national average, At secondary level, the North gets

about ?1300 less than London. The institute warns

of a North South academic divide. Time is called children are doing

well. When they go to secondary school, in the Midlands and the

North of England, they are doing very badly. Something like two

thirds of the schools in special measures are in the north and in the

Midlands. President Obama has lifted

a longstanding ban on selling weapons to the Vietnamese government

- during a visit to the country. Mr Obama said the decision

removes one of the last traces of Cold War hostility -

though future arms sales would still need to satisfy US

government rules on human rights. A fire has swept through a school

dormitory in Northern Thailand, killing at least seventeen girls,

who were asleep. The private school teaches students

aged between six and thirteen - at least five other girls

were injured and two are missing. The cause of the fire

is not yet known. The Mayor of London,

Sadiq Khan, has announced that the the long-awaited all-night

weekend Tube service in the capital The service will start

on the Central and Victoria lines on August 19th -

with some other lines in the Autumn. Union officials at the RMT say

they still have some issues The Scottish Conservative leader -

Ruth Davidson - has announced She popped the question

to Jen Wilson while the pair The MSP posted a picture of

an engagement ring on social media. The Chancellor George Osborne has

tweeted his congratulations Adele's domination of the music

world continues after she was named Top Artist at last night's

Billboard Music awards in Las Vegas. Other top prizes went to Rihanna

in the fan-voted chart achievement award and Justin Bieber got

top male artist. But the highlight of the show

was a tribute to Prince by Madonna, who was joined by surprise guest

Stevie Wonder. That's a summary of the latest BBC

News - more at 10.30. Thank you. Earlier we heard from a

guide dog owner who is calling for strong penalties for cab drivers who

refuse to carry them. You have been getting in touch. Peter says people

with guide dogs should wear cameras on them at the shoulders and create

a name and shame website to force councils to act against taxi

drivers. Brenda has tweeted, guide dogs are so well-behaved, how can

they refuse to take them? Service dogs are bold and invaluable. Ugly

to refuse them. -- gold. Do get in touch with us

throughout the morning - use the hashtag Victoria Live

and If you text, you will be charged Let's catch up with the sport.

It seems the United hierarchy have been spending a lot of time recently

to decide between Louis van Gaal and Jose Mourinho, but have they been

making a different decision? Jose Mourinho or Ryan Giggs? Ryan Giggs,

a record breaker for almost three decades at Old Trafford, but what is

his future now Jose Mourinho is arriving? Our reporter is with me. A

lot of uncertainty around Ryan Giggs come he has a big decision to make.

He has. He is a pivotal figure in the history of Manchester United.

Certainly over the last 25 years he's the most decorated player at

the club. Even as recently as November he was seen as the man who

would follow when Louis van how's slipstream and eventually become

their next manager. -- Louis van Gaal's. That isn't going to happen

now. Question is, does Ryan Giggs stay at United? We think he will be

offered a coaching position under Jose Mourinho. Does he accept that

and work and a third manager after Louis van Gaal and David Moyes, or.

Ryan Giggs find another job within the Manchester United system, the

club he knows so well, or does he make the biggest decision of all,

which would be to leave Manchester United and further his managerial

ambitions elsewhere? -- or does Ryan Giggs find another job. He would

have offers, he would get a job, but it would be a huge step for somebody

like him to leave United. He's so synonymous with fantastic moment at

Manchester United. His 29 years at the club. -- fantastic moments. And

United have to make a decision whether they cut ties with somebody

who has been involved with so much of their recent history. He has so

much vast knowledge at Manchester United. It would be silly for them

to lose him. They have a view of their club, whether that exist in

reality, it certainly plays in the longevity of their managers, giving

people time. Ryan Giggs represent everything about that. I think they

would be reluctant to lose that. It is a question of whether Ryan Giggs

is willing to work and it yet another manager. The developments

will begin testing of the next little while. We understand Louis

van Gaal has arrived at the training ground. Could we have development

over his future, and Jose Mourinho's in the next 24 to 48 hours? Back to

you. The Chancellor, George Osborne

is about to use a speech to claim that a vote to leave the EU

will plunge the UK into a self-inflicted

year-long recession, It's the latest in a series

of doom-laden warnings from the Remain camp,

and is based on an analysis But Leave campaigners say it's

misleading and biased, We'll hear from Mr Osborne

in a moment, but first we can go back to our political

guru, Norman Smith. Tell us more about how this

conclusion has been reached. They have top civil servant in the

Treasury to look at what would happen to the pound, in particular,

and calculating the impact that would have in terms of interest

rates, in terms of imports, they've also factored in business

uncertainty. The result of that is very stark. They are saying

something like half a million jobs could go. They are saying the

economy could be 6% smaller. House prices might be growing 18% smaller.

The pound could plummet by up to 15%. Everything from the cost of

food, two cloves, to mortgages, all of that would go up. -- to clothes.

It is doom laden, this report. The Chancellor and David Cameron will be

appearing here soon. They are saying this would be a DIY recession, get

the pond, they are at a DIY store will stop they say this because we

would be creating it ourselves if we voted to leave the EU. -- get the

pun? The response to this has been ferocious. -- they are at a DIY

store. Senior figures accusing the PM and the Chancellor of telling

lies. We had Iain Duncan Smith last night saying that he thought the

Chancellor was a bit like Pinocchio, his nose was getting longer and

longer as he told more and more lies. We have had Doris Johnson

saying these are fantasy bogey men. -- Boris Johnson. He suggested that

George Osborne's pants were on fire. They are, in effect, it seems,

accusing people they work closely with all, basically, misleading the

public. The whole nature of this referendum has become ever more

incendiary. The thought I am left with is, how on earth, once this is

all over, the two sides come back together? When you have accusations.

People peddling lies. It seems to be difficult for them to bring this

party back together. We were hearing from voters earlier.

However you speak to, everybody seems to say, what I want is a list

of the pros and cons, a list of the clear facts, can you get that

anywhere? It is difficult to get absolute

gospel truth. That is one of the things that has emerged in this

referendum. Every set of figures you produce is argued about by one side.

The figures almost become ammunition, as opposed to holy

grails of truth, which, somehow, Shine a light on one particular

side. It is very difficult to get that. What has made it harder in

that sort of environment is the way both sides seem to be just eggs and

-- to be just accent treating their argument. We were told we would have

thousands of migrants coming over from places like Albania. --

accentuating. It might be further down the line that Turkey is given

membership, but I think it is not in a short-term time frame. There is a

case of ramping that argument up. And on the other side, the

Chancellor wants to accent you wait the risks of leaving the EU,

painting this dark picture. -- accentuate the risks. But this is

forecasting, it isn't biblical truth, you are just trying to give

your best guess. It will never be an absolute truth. But it is presented

almost as a hard fact. The argument is no longer about the fax. It has

become something about credibility, about, who do you believe, somebody

like Boris Johnson, or somebody like George Osborne. It has become that

gut instinct decision. In terms of the language being used,

project fear is a phrase we hear. Today the Chancellor will be

describing the status quo as a brighter future. The indications of

what would happen if we went out. Do you think we should put the argument

in more positive language? I don't think so. The Treasury and

the government look back at the Scottish referendum. There was

criticism at the time. People said the government fought a negative

campaign. A warning of what would happen to the Scottish currency if

they couldn't follow Stalin, would they have to have their own, would

they have to join the euro... -- if they could not follow Sterling. They

know that accentuating the risks makes people stop and think, do I

really want to take this gamble? I think they think it works. There

might be a positive linear, but I think they will still keep hammering

on the economic risks. We've already had it. We had that report a few

weeks ago saying each household would be roughly ?4300 worse off.

They will keep hammering away at the risks. At the end of the day it

makes people think. They look back at Scotland and think it worked

there, it will probably work in this referendum, too. I think we will get

more of project fear the longer this referendum goes.

Thank you. There is no sign of the Prime Minister or the Chancellor for

now. Let me give you the details if you would like to take part in one

of our debates. Have you decided how

you're going to vote Well, you are very welcome to take

part in one of our big TV audience On 6th June, we're in Manchester

just over a fortnight It's open to everyone and will take

place in our normal airtime If you want to take part

and can get to Manchester from wherever you are in the UK,

do e-mail [email protected] to have your chance to quiz senior

politicians from the leave Well, they are keeping us waiting so

we will move on for now, but we will go back to David Cameron and George

Osborne when they arrive and start speaking. We reckon it is five

minutes away. So right now, we are going to talk about another row

that's been brewing today. It is about what we should eat to stay

slim. Don't fear fat, fat is your friend -

that's according to the National Obesity Forum who has suggested that

eating fat could help cut obesity The charity says that promoting low

fat foods has led to "disastrous health consequences" and is calling

for a major overhaul Public Health England have strongly

criticised the claims. Joining me now is Aseem Malhotra,

a senior adviser to the National Obesity Forum and Victoria Taylor,

a senior dietician at Thank you very much both for joining

us. Why do you think fat is good, low-fat is bad? Yeah, I think the

public health messaging for decades has demonised fats, you should avoid

fat because of a risk of heart disease. We look at the evidence,

that isn't the case. The problems that happen is people have reduced

their fat intake and they are eating a lot of stamp and refined

carbohydrates and sugar which is a problem driving many chronic

diseases. That's really at the heart of it. This is based on flawed

science, but it has been exacerbated by commercial influence and this

advice needs to change and ultimately what this is about is

whole nutritious foods. The demonisation of fat has driven

people away from eating eggs, oily fish and nuts, foods which are high

in fat, but reduce cardiovascular disease. Fat makes you feel fuller

for longer and when you eat whole foods and reduce the refined carbs

and sugar, which is a real issue for people with Type 2 diabetes... Are

you packing loads in. I want to get Victoria's response to what's at the

heart of that has fat been demonised and is it doing us harm? There has

been a huge amount of debate around should we eat fat, should we eat

cash owe high democrats and butter and margarine and we need to see a

review of all of the evidence which is one of the problems with

nutrition because it is very complex and so it is not just about

randomised control trials, it is about co heart studies and

observational study which need to be drawn together. The thing for the

population in terms of what should I do about this? Is that it is not

about single foods, single nutrients or single risk factors in terms of

your cardiovascular disease risk. When you change one thing, it knocks

something else out. You need to take a balanced approach. People will be

watching and saying what can I eat? You are saying low-fat is bad and

you are saying you have to look at the whole diet. Would you say the

promotion of fat over fat has been a bad thing? I think the dietary

guidelines that we have are robust. They are based on evidence and they

are, the problem with our diets is we're not necessarily following the

dietary guidance. No one is clear what the dietary guidance is? When

there is new evidence, it is an evolving field, but we need to look

at that systematicically to be able to make guidelines that are sensible

and aren't going to change every week, every month. Do you think

you're helping anyone with what you're coming out with today? The

headlines in the newspapers, the way the story has been reported is

conflicting, confusing, people will say I no longer have any idea? I

have done a lot of work with the media and the media like a good row.

In term of are we helping people? One of the co-authors is a GP who

actually, you know, has followed this advice we're recommending to

his patients up north and he is a clinical lead for diabetes for the

Royal College of General Practicioners and he won an NHS

innovation award by ignoring conventional wisdom and saved

?45,000 inary, compared to other GP practises giving this advice,

reversed Type 2 diabetes in his patients and people are coming off

insulin. There is clearly some benefit here. Public Health England

say call for people to cut out fat and say what you are talking about

is quoting 43 studies some of which were comment pieces versus thousands

of studies being considered? I'm disappointed with the reaction from

Public Health England. At the heart of the report is how the

establishment misled us. How industry is too close to guideline

bodies including Public Health England who have been called out by

the Press Association about the fact that the food industry had influence

over their guidance. This is not cherry-picking. The actual period of

reviewed studies are large reviewsment some of them Cambridge

MRC, and some supported by the British Heart Foundation. Are you

saying there is a conspiracy that duped us all in terms of what is

right and wrong to eat? The industry are too close to what should be

independent scientists and we made it very clear that the real scandal

isn't the food industry who are there to make profit, it is the fact

that we have collusion between doctors for financial gain. What

evidence have you got of that? Well, how much time have you got? Well,

that's quite a claim. That you are saying that the studies that they

are talking about can't be relied on? I'm saying the overall influence

on the dietary guyance. Until recently, before Public Health

England changed their eat well plate to an eat well guide, they had a

full sugared red can of cola on the plate. What was that doing on the

plate? It is very clear that the only reason for that is because it

was industry, food industry influence which is not acceptable

and that for me as a doctor, I want to make clinical decisions for my

patients based on independent evidence, not biassed information.

If I am making decisions for my patients based on biassed

information that is unethical. People will be going, "I have no

idea anymore what to do." Avoid processed foods of the don't buy

processed foods that are marketed as low-fat. Often they are full of

sugar. Eat lots of vegetable, oily fish and nuts, and I think... That's

simple, that's straightforward. If everybody agrees on that, why does

there have to be this dispute between you and Public Health

England about what's the right thing to do? Because Public Health England

have clearly on their guidance, their eat well guide recommended a

significant reduction in fat and some of the foods that are high in

fat are very beneficial for your health and overall. It depends on

what fats? Absolutely. Vegetable oils are promoted as healthy because

they are low cholesterol. When you heat vegetable oils to high

temperatures, they produce toxic compounds linked to cancer. It is a

minefield, isn't it? The oils are in the eat well guide, it is not about

their cholesterol levels. The other sources of unsaturated fats are in

other sections, whether you are eating oily fish or avocados, they

are in the eat well guide. The reason why the section reduced is

because the sugary foods, which some of are high in fat, biscuits and

cakes, have been taken out of the eat well guide to make it sort of,

the foods that we should be eating every day, are actually the one that

is will benefit our health. It comes down to common sense, knowing, we

were hearing there, the simple foods that were always around, the

traditional diets people used to follow before processed foods,

that's the sort of thing? It is about eating a balanced diet. It is

not just about fats and carbohydrates, but you need to think

about proteins and the fruit and vegetables that you eat. If you eat

a balanced diet, it will be a satisfying diet and it will give you

all the knewtry ents for good health. Peter says, "No food is bad.

Greed is unhealthy. It is as simple as that. We should eat more fat.

Eggs, oily fish are essential for our bodies." Another viewer says,

"You need to eat fat to burn fat. Everybody who says that is thin."

Thank you for joining us and let us know what you think about what what

you should be eating. Are you clear on it?

Austria could be on the verge of becoming the first EU country

to vote into power a far-right head of state.

Last month, Norbert Hofer, from the Freedom Party,

won the first round of voting for the post of President.

He is an anti-immigrant, gun enthusiast and has

carried his Glock pistol around with him on the campaign trail.

He now faces the former leader of the Green Party, Alexander Van

Early results suggest it will be a close race.

In Austria, the president traditionally plays

a largely ceremonial role but swears in the Chancellor and can

Support for the Freedom Party has risen because of fears

Austria took in 90,000 asylum seekers last year,

After opening their borders to a wave of migrants

We can speak to our Austria correspondent Bethany Bell

Bethany, the country is split down the middle, isn't it? Yes, it is a

real cliffhanger this morning. We still don't know who is going to be

the next president to take up residence in the Presidential Palace

here behind me. At the moment, the projection are it is 50% for the

far-right candidate, and 50% for his rival who is a former head of the

Green Party. And really, this country is very, very dividedment on

the one hand, there are the supporters of the Freedom Party, the

far-right who are more nationalistic, they are

Euro-sceptic, they are worried about the migrant crisis. On the other

hand, there are the supporters of the other candidate who WHO is

pro-Europe. They say Austria is a wealthy country, it can deal with

the migrants, it is at the moment, it is one half of the country

against the other. We are going to go now to David Cameron and George

Osborne. They are going to be talking about the latest treasury

forecasts of what could happen in the event of Brexit in the

referendum on 23rd June. They have just arrived actually. They are

being introduced right now, but the arguments that they're talking about

today centre on what George Osborne says would be a DIY recession,

quitting the European Union, George Osborne says would plunge Britain

into a year-long recession. The country would suffer a profound

economic shock. It is based on treasury analysis released ahead of

the referendum which happens one month today.

APPLAUSE Well, thank you for that and good

morning, it is great to be back at B, thank you for coming today.

This country has worked incredibly hard to recover from the recession

of seven years ago. Businesses have invested, people have taken risks,

companies have come to this country, but above all, the people of Britain

have worked incredibly hard to get over that recession. And the two of

us have worked together to try and put the right framework in place.

Now, we haven't got every decision right. But the deficit is right

down. The economy is growing. We're creating jobs. Britain is making

things again. And making its way in the world genl. 2.4 million more

people in work. We have got low inflation. We have almost got one

million more businesses than when we first got our jobs in 2010. But yes,

we still have a long way to go. Yes, there is more to do. But I think

there can be no doubt, Britain is on the right track. I don't want us to

do anything that sets us on the wrong track. After all, that's

really the job description of a Prime Minister to safeguard the

nation's security and exactly a month from today, we're going to

make a decision that will determine our future security. I believe that

leaving the EU would put our security at huge risk. That it would

be the wrong track for Britain. Why? Because as we know, and as even

Leave campaigners now freely admit, we would lose full access to the

European single market. We would be abandoning the largest market place

in the world. Half a billion people. It is a market which Britain helped

to create and which is the source of so much of our economic security.

Now inside that market, our businesses can trade freely and

investors can invest here easily and that keeps our economy growing, that

keeps our jobs safe and keeps the pound strong, keeps our families

secure. It means that a business from here in Eastleigh can get their

goods to market anywhere in the EU and get better access to all the

places with which the EU has trade deals. So no Spanish importer saying

to our manufacturers that doesn't fit our regulationses, no tariffs,

no barriers, just Britain doing what we need to do, getting out there and

trading with our neighbours. Now, leaving this arrangement, our

special status, in the EU is a leap in the dark because no one has said

what we would have in its place. We heard last month from the Treasury

that the long-term impact of leaving would be a cost to every household

elive quantity to ?4300. Today we publish analysis of what would

happen in the short-term, in the months and years after a British

exit. As businesses freeze up, confidence drains, and uncertainty

clouds over and an economic shock shakes our nation.

The Chancellor will go into the details shortly. I want to talk

about the impact on your life, your job, your home, your weekly shop,

your monthly bills, these things are all at risk. As the Bank of England

has said, as the IMF has undermined, and the Treasury has now confirmed

that the shock after leaving the EU would tip the country into

recession. It could be for the first time in history a recession brought

on ourselves. As I stand here, it would be a DIY recession. It really

matters to everyone. Someone asked in this debate and the other day,

you know, that's the economic case, what about the moral case? But don't

they realise the economic case is the moral case. The moral case for

keeping parent in work, firms in business, the pound in health,

Britain in credit. The moral case for providing economic opportunity

rather than unemployment for the next generation. Where is the morale

of the inputting any of that at risk for some unknown end? This

government was elected just over a year ago to deliver security at

every stage of life. To build a greater Britain out of a great

recession. And after all of the pain, all of the sacrifice of the

British people, why would we want to put it at risk again? It would be

like surviving a fall and then running straight back to the cliff

edge. It is the self-destruct option. So much of this debate is

muddied and overshadowed by speculation, but who says what about

whom, who was in which camp, we need to strip away the drama and focus on

real life. This isn't about political parties or personalities

or prime ministers, it is about you, your money, and your life. The

stakes couldn't be higher. The risks couldn't be greater. In my view, the

choice couldn't be clearer. Leave Europe and put it risk what we have

achieved. Stay in Europe and stay on the right track. And now it is time

to hear that analysis of the short-term impact. Overdue,

Chancellor. -- over to you. Thanks. It is great to be back here.

It is going to be a great British company doing well. The Treasury has

already published detailed analysis of what they vote to leave would do

to Britain's economy over the long-term. The results showed

Britain would be permanently poorer to the tune of ?4300 per household.

But as ?4300 each and every year. -- that is. That is the long-term goal

for leaving the EU. But what about the immediate impact? What will it

mean next month, next year, what will it mean for you? The Treasury

is publishing its detailed and rigorous analysis of the immediate

impact of leaving the EU on growth, jobs, prices, wages, house prices,

and on our nation's finances. The conclusion is all would be hit. Why

is that? Households and businesses will know that Britain is going to

be poorer in the future. So they will start cutting back now. That

has an effect on the economy now. Leaving the EU create a huge amount

of uncertainty. We have just to years to work out how to lead EU,

two the years to find a new working relationship with our European

neighbours, two years to do trade deals with over 50 other non-EU

countries, two years to introduce a load of new regulations here at

home. In other words, two years, at the very least, of complete

uncertainty, and probably more. What will British businesses be doing

during those two years? They will be watching and waiting nervously. They

will delay purchasing new machinery, they will put on hold making plans

for new premises. They will not be taking on new people. Some will that

existing people go. What about families? How are they likely to

respond? Families will also be uncertain about what is coming next.

If you don't know what is going to happen to your job, your partner's

job, what you are paid, the fortunes of the firm you work for? It makes

sense to delay spending. People will put off buying a home, starting a

business. That together millions of individual decisions like that and

there is real damage to the economy. Then there is the impact on the

financial markets. We have all done and our cost during the financial

crash how that can affect us all. Markets would be volatile, banks

would be more the value of things like shares would likely fall. Stuck

all of these things together. The fact we would be heading towards a

poorer Britain, the fact we would be surrounded by uncertainty, the fact

the system would be volatile, it builds up to a profound economic

shock if Britain leaves the EU. -- stick all of these things. The

country has asked a former leading economist to review the work we have

done today. He concludes it provides a real estimate of the likely size

of the short-term impact of a vote to leave on the UK economy. What are

the numbers from the treasure reanalysis today? Economists looked

at two scenarios. One Web Britain experiences a shock, the second way

it is a severe shock. -- one where Britain. This is what happens if

Britain leaves. The economy shrinks, the value of the pound falls,

inflation rises, unemployment rises, real wages are hit, so our house

prices, and as a result government borrowing goes up. The central

conclusions of today's treasure reanalysis are clear. A vote to

leave would push our economy into a recession. Within the rapper years,

the size of our economy, our GDP, would be at least 3% smaller as a

result of leaving the EU. -- within a few years. We have a year of

negative growth. That is a recession. The pound would fall in

value between 12 and 15%. It would just mean it will be more expensive

when you have a holiday abroad, it means everything we import becomes

more expensive which increases inflation and that hit family

budgets will stop within a year of a referendum, inflation would be over

2% higher. -- hit family Budget. That would hurt the low income

families who spend the largest proportion of their income on things

like food and energy bills. In the financial markets, tougher

conditions would lead to higher mortgage costs for families. House

prices would be hit by at least 10%. And as much as 18%. That is what it

means to vote to leave. Incomes fall, mortgage rates go up, and the

family home value falls. Behind all of this, what people can afford to

buy, where they can afford to live, our people's jobs. The Treasury

analysis published today finds that indirect consequence, a vote to

leave the EU would -- would mean significant job losses. Half a

million jobs would be lost. That is 80,000 jobs in the Midlands, over

100,000 jobs across the North, over 40,000 in Scotland, over 20,000 in

Wales, almost 15,000 jobs in Northern Ireland. In London, over

70,000 jobs would be lost. Across the South, almost 120,000 jobs would

go. That is the lower end of the estimates. Across Britain, as many

as 820,000 jobs could be lost. As always, it would be young people

leaving school and college, those already in insecure work, who would

be hit hardest. Youth unemployment would rise by over 10%. For those

who stay in work, wages will be hit as firms see their profits fall. The

treasure reanalysis finds that real wages will fall by almost 3% in the

first two years compared to where they would be at we remained in the

EU. To put that into perspective, that is a pay cut worth almost ?800

per year to somebody working full-time on the average wage. The

analysis is clear, the uncertainty that would be caused by a vote to

leave would put the brakes on investment. It would cost over half

a million people in our country jobs. And would cut people's wages,

too. All of this would have a big impact on the nation's finances. And

how much we have to spend on things we value, like our NHS and our

schools. If we vote to leave the evidence shows that the deficit

would be higher than it would be if we remained. The borrowing bill for

leaving the EU would be between ?24 billion to ?39 billion a year. Let

me end by saying this... It has only been eight years since Britain

entered the deepest recession our country has seen since the Second

World War. Every part of our country suffered. The British people have

worked so hard to get our country back on track. Do we want to throw

it all away? One month to go on to the referendum. The British people

must ask themselves this question, can we knowingly vote for a

recession, does Britain really want this DIY recession? That is what the

evidence shows we will get if we vote to leave the EU. To those

fellow politicians who say we should vote to leave I say this, you might

think the economic shock is a price worth paying, but it isn't your

wages that will be hit, it isn't your livelihoods that will go, it

isn't you who will struggle to pay the bill, it is the working people

of Britain who will pay the price if we leave the EU. None of this needs

to happen if we vote to leave. Yes, we've got improvements to make to

the EU. INAUDIBLE

If we remain, major manufacturers will go on selling to Europe. The

shamus will go on selling their beef and lamb to Europe. -- if we remain,

farmers will go on. People will have the confidence to do up their own

homes, shop with companies like yours. If we remain, our economy

will not lose half a million jobs, but instead will create over 1

million jobs over the coming years. That is the brighter future on offer

for our country. We have spent six years together dealing with what

happens when recession hits this country. We have one month to make

sure we do not do it ourselves all over again. One month to avoid a DIY

recession. The treasure reanalysis shows Britain will be stronger,

safer, and better off if we vote to remain in the EU on the 23rd of

June. -- Treasury analysis. Thanks rematch.

APPLAUSE STUDIO: The Chancellor with that

Treasury analysis of what they say will be the impact of Britain

leaving the EU. Half a million jobs going. A DIY

recession. Vote leave say it is not an honest assessment. Let's get the

views of Norman Smith, our political Guru. It was pretty bleak.

No wonder they are looking down on the dumps in that B audience, they

probably need a stiff drink afterwards. We knew it would be bad

but not that bad. We were told that they would talk about half a million

jobs being at risk, George Osborne said it could be 840,000 jobs within

two years! He said 80,000 jobs could go in the North, 100,000 jobs in the

Midlands, 70,000 jobs in London, 120,000 jobs in the South. Oh! And

youth unemployment, he predicted it would rise by 10%. Elsewhere, he was

suggesting that in terms of our pay packets, because business profits

would be hit, those of us who are still in work, we would see our

wages cut by around 3%. For somebody on an average wage that would mean a

cut of ?800 a year. He talked about the deficit. He suggested the

deficit would be something like ?40 billion higher. If you have a bigger

deficit that means you have less cash for public services. Also, he

talked about the value of the pound going down, which would drive up the

price of imported food and clothes. And he was saying that that would

hit families on low incomes. In other words, it is the poor who

would be hit hardest by Brexit. David Cameron described it as the

self-destruct option. Really, a pretty doom laden and analysis. As

we were saying earlier, it all comes down to credibility. Either you

believe what the Prime Minister and the Chancellor are saying, then you

would have to be mad to vote for that sort of thing. But the question

is, do you believe them? Thank you.

What would you do if you were given a year to live?

Well, that was the dilemma that guitar legend and former member