25/01/2016 World Business Report

Now for the latest financial news with Sally and

Moving on up - oil prices continue to rally as the cold weather

Trading places - it's Japan's turn to reveal its weakest exports

for three years, putting pressure on its central bank to act.

Welcome to World Business Report. I'm Sally Bundock.

Also in the programme, we discuss the outlook for Portugal

We start with the price of this black stuff, but this time we're

talking about oil prices going up - and analysts are now rethinking

As I'm sure you are well aware, oil prices have seen dramatic falls over

the past 18 months, with prices now just a fraction of the peak in the

There is simply too much of it around.

At the moment between one and two million barrels of oil every day is

This as producers battle it out to try and gain market share.

The International Energy Agency says unless something changes,

then the oil market could drown in oversupply.

I could see a price of $30 up to $40 in the middle of the year, and at

the end of the year, $50. I think the oil price in six months'

time would be $35-45 a barrel. I think it will be about $35

in six months. There is little demand

and oversupply. We want to blame China, but this is

not really the only problem. Nobody knows what the oil price

will be, but my prediction is $30. I will bet $20.

You know the reason. The oil price will be $15 a barrel

because of the extraordinary glut It might even go

down to $5 a barrel. I'm sure it will keep on going

down and down. There you have it, a very diverse

range of predictions on where the price of oil is going. Hopefully we

will get another expert view for you live on the show.

Japan's latest trade figures are out, and it looks

like the slowdown in the global economy is taking a toll.

Exports fell 8% in December from a year earlier,

Sharanjit Leyl is in our Asia Business Hub in Singapore.

Phil asked in on Japan. -- philistine. Not good numbers. No,

not at all. You do have these low oil prices, and that has helped

narrow to ten's trade deficit. That is actually helped to some degree. A

lot of investors are looking towards the key bank of Japan meeting later

this week. That was shed more clues on what is happening there. China's

slowdown continues to affect demand from Japan and elsewhere in the

region. They are looking to set up monetary policy. Lastly, we saw the

chief of the central bank hinting at monetary stingers. The bank of Japan

may do likewise foreign-based downbeat economic reports --

monetary stimulus. We are also watching for expectations of the

Federal Reserve. All of that casting a bit of a call on the rest of the

week, even though we are seeing Asian markets rising strongly this

Monday, including the Nikkei. Pretty much shagging off the details of

this downbeat economic data -- shrugging off. It is unusual when

you think about the Mondays we have had so far this year. Let's return

to oil. Our expert is able to join us live now from Aberdeen. I don't

know if you were able to hear some of those predictions we got from

people in Davos earlier, but the price of oil is headed higher. We

have had a short-term issue with supply and demand, and issues around

the slowing of Chinese growth. The belief is that the price will rise

as supply and demand come closer in balance. What are your thoughts on

the price at the moment, around $32 a barrel. For this you, what do you

guys predict? I think we will see it rising further as the year goes by.

Many were taking by surprise was how low the prices being, although we

have quickly adjusted to that. The response from our participants in

our survey suggest industry expects a higher price in the medium-term.

What about the introduction of more oil coming from Iran? That

inevitably has an impact, in the short-term, but I think that has

been factored in in anticipation of it happening, and I think we will

see a higher price in the longer term. We have to leave it there, but

we appreciate your time this morning. Let's talk about Portugal.

and television pundit Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa has won Portugal's

With nearly 99% of the vote counted, the 67-year-old

is winning 52% - enough to avoid a run-off.

The post of president is mainly ceremonial, but the head

Portugal is currently governed by a shaky left-wing coalition.

With me is Marc Ostwald, Global Strategist at ADM Investor Services.

Good morning. He has come in saying he will heal Portugal and will build

bridges. He will try to be wrong is of recent history. He has a task

ahead of him. -- right the wrongs. He needs to ensure Portugal has a

steady government that can deliver the measures they want. The current

governing coalition is vulnerable to threats from the far left and the

Communist bloc who support the Socialist Party. Up until now, with

the previous president, he could not dissolve parliament because he was

in the last six months of his term. If there are disagreements,

hopefully they can now go to fresh elections if it is going nowhere.

That in itself would be healing, because trying to cobble together

these loose coalitions which really have no sense of purpose and don't

drive the country forward, is not the way to go for a country like

Portugal. How is the economy doing? It is a country that obviously

needed to be bailed out by the likes of the EU and International Monetary

Fund, and was given severe austerity plans as a consequence of the

bailout. How is the economy doing at the moment given the difficulty with

the politics? The economy is not doing too badly. It is going about

1% up to 1.7% per annum, which in European terms is not too bad. The

most important benefit Portugal has is now that a lot of the economies

which were under austerity are starting to pick up again. Its main

export partners are countries like Spain and Italy and France, and they

are beginning to pick up. That is probably the biggest thing for the

economy, if they can get some of the austerity measures rolled back and

softened somewhat, and if they can have a stable government to

encourage people to invest more in Portugal. That is the key, because

this new coalition government is not clear what its mandate is. It is

definitely anti- austerity. Perhaps trying to nationalise part of the

economy which have been advertised. Yes, that is the fundamental

problem. International investors, if they are offered something in

privatisation, don't want the next government to come in and say we

want to take that back. It creates uncertainty in the investment

environment. Thank you for coming in. We will keep a close eye on how

things go in Portugal given the latest episode in its political

history. U the markets. It is Monday morning, and we have gains across

the board and the rise of oil coming up as well -- let's show you the

markets. It was a strong end to the day on Wall Street on Friday. Let's

see how long that lasts. That is all for World Business Report. See you

soon. A committee of MPs has warned

charities that their fundraising activities could be controlled by

law unless a new voluntary regulator They said it was the

"last chance" for self-regulation of